Method and system for measuring and calculating development degree of traffic transportation ahead of economic society

Abstract

The embodiment of the invention provides a method and system for measuring and calculating the development degree of traffic transportation ahead of economic and social development, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining original data for predicting the precedence degree, and carrying out the standardization processing, and obtaining prediction data; carrying out main factor analysis by utilizing SPSS software, and calculating a comprehensive development level target coefficient of traffic transportation and economic society; and inputting the comprehensive development level target coefficient into a pre-established precedence degree calculation model, and calculating the target precedence degree by the precedence degree calculation model based on a pre-established mapping relationship between the comprehensive development level coefficient and the precedence degree. By applying the scheme provided by the embodiment of the invention, when the advance degree of traffic transportation and the economic society is measured and calculated, the comprehensive development level target coefficient can be obtained based on the fitness and the transportation elasticity parameter for prediction, and the two parameters are key indexes reflecting the traffic transportation and the economic society; and the comprehensive development level coefficient is not only a set of simple indexes, so that the accuracy of advance degree measurement and calculation can be ensured.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of transportation and economic and social technology, and in particular to a method and system for calculating the degree to which transportation precedes economic and social development. Background Art

[0002] Transportation is the infrastructure and pillar industry of the national economy, and is closely related to economic development. Generally, the appropriate and advanced development of transportation can drive the rapid development of the economy and society. At present, the research on transportation and the economy and society mainly involves the adaptability and matching degree of the two. The adaptability refers to the degree of mutual coordination and consistency between the internal factors of transportation and the corresponding needs, and the matching degree refers to the degree of coordination and consistency between the provided transportation services and transportation needs. In other words, the existing technology only studies the interaction between transportation and the economy and society.

[0003] Compared with economic and social development, transportation is in a leading position to a certain extent. It can be said that transportation is the forerunner of economic and social development, and the leading role of transportation has a great impact on the development of the economy and society. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a measurement scheme that can quantitatively evaluate the degree to which transportation precedes economic and social development. Summary of the invention

[0004] The purpose of the embodiments of the present invention is to provide a method and system for measuring the degree to which transportation precedes economic and social development, so as to quantitatively evaluate the degree to which transportation precedes economic and social development.

[0005] To achieve the above purpose, the embodiment of the present invention discloses a method for calculating the degree to which transportation precedes economic and social development. The method comprises:

[0006] Obtaining raw data on the forecast lead time; wherein the lead time refers to the degree to which transportation is ahead of the needs of economic and social development;

[0007] Performing standardization processing on the original data to obtain predicted data;

[0008] Use SPSS software to conduct a main factor analysis on the forecast data and calculate the target coefficient of the comprehensive development level of transportation and economic society;

[0009] The comprehensive development level target coefficient is input into a pre-established precedence degree calculation model, and the precedence degree calculation model calculates the target precedence degree corresponding to the comprehensive development level target coefficient based on the pre-established mapping relationship between the comprehensive development level coefficient and the precedence degree;

[0010] Among them, the leading degree calculation model is: taking the adaptability and transportation elasticity parameters between transportation and economic society as comprehensive indicators in advance, using historical data to calculate the leading degree of historical years and then constructing an initial model, and using future data to calculate the leading degree of future years and then feedback and correct the initial model to generate an optimization model.

[0011] Preferably, the adaptability between transportation and economic society is calculated according to the following formula:

[0012]

[0013] Among them, ρ is the adaptability of transportation and economic and social development, ω1 and ω2 are the comprehensive development level evaluation indexes of transportation and economic society.

[0014] Preferably, the development degree measurement also includes: dividing the adaptability of the transportation and economic society into N levels according to the numerical value of the adaptability.

[0015] Preferably, the transport elasticity parameter between the transport and the economy and society is calculated according to the following formula:

[0016]

[0017] Among them, ΔQ is the change in the economy and society, Q is the absolute quantity of the economy and society, ΔP is the change in transportation, and P is the absolute quantity of transportation.

[0018] Preferably, the development degree calculation further includes: dividing the transportation elasticity parameters of transportation and economic society into M levels according to the numerical values ​​of the transportation elasticity parameters.

[0019] Preferably, the priority degree calculation model calculates the target priority degree corresponding to the comprehensive development level target coefficient based on the pre-constructed mapping relationship between the comprehensive development level coefficient and the priority degree, and includes:

[0020] The target precedence μ is calculated according to the following formula:

[0021]

[0022] Among them, μ is the target priority corresponding to the comprehensive development level target coefficient, ω1 and ω2 are the comprehensive development level evaluation indexes of transportation and economic society, Δ max is the limit value of ω1-ω2 calculated using historical data from historical years, |Δ max |Take the maximum value of |ω1-ω2|, and α is the amplification factor.

[0023] To achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the embodiment of the present invention discloses a system for calculating the degree to which transportation precedes economic and social development. The system comprises: a data acquisition module, a data processing module, a comprehensive coefficient calculation module and a precedence degree calculation module; wherein:

[0024] The data acquisition module is used to acquire raw data of the predicted lead time; wherein the lead time refers to the degree to which transportation is ahead of the needs of economic and social development;

[0025] The data processing module is used to perform standardization processing on the original data to obtain predicted data;

[0026] The comprehensive coefficient calculation module is used to perform a main factor analysis on the forecast data using SPSS software to calculate the comprehensive development level target coefficient of transportation and economic society;

[0027] The priority calculation module is used to input the comprehensive development level target coefficient into a pre-established priority calculation model, and the priority calculation model calculates the target priority corresponding to the comprehensive development level target coefficient based on the pre-established mapping relationship between the comprehensive development level coefficient and the priority;

[0028] Among them, the leading degree calculation model is: taking the adaptability and transportation elasticity parameters between transportation and economic society as comprehensive indicators in advance, using historical data to calculate the leading degree of historical years and then constructing an initial model, and using future data to calculate the leading degree of future years and then feedback and correct the initial model to generate an optimization model.

[0029] Preferably, the precedence calculation module calculates the adaptability between the transportation and the economy and society according to the following formula:

[0030]

[0031] Among them, ρ is the adaptability of transportation and economic and social development, ω1 and ω2 are the comprehensive development level evaluation indexes of transportation and economic society.

[0032] Preferably, the precedence calculation module calculates the transportation elasticity parameter between the transportation and the economy and society according to the following formula:

[0033]

[0034] Among them, ΔQ is the change in the economy and society, Q is the absolute quantity of the economy and society, ΔP is the change in transportation, and P is the absolute quantity of transportation.

[0035] Preferably, the priority calculation module calculates the target priority μ according to the following formula:

[0036]

[0037] Among them, μ is the target priority corresponding to the comprehensive development level target coefficient, ω1 and ω2 are the comprehensive development level evaluation indexes of transportation and economic society, Δ max is the limit value of ω1-ω2 calculated using historical data from historical years, |Δ max |Take the maximum value of |ω1-ω2|, and α is the amplification factor.

[0038] The embodiment of the present invention provides a method and system for calculating the degree to which transportation precedes economic and social development. The method first obtains original data for predicting the precedence of transportation and economic and social development, and standardizes the original data to obtain predicted data. SPSS software is then used to perform principal factor analysis on the predicted data to calculate the target coefficient of the comprehensive development level of transportation and economic and social development. The target coefficient of the comprehensive development level is then input into a pre-established precedence calculation model. The precedence calculation model calculates the target precedence corresponding to the target coefficient of the comprehensive development level based on the pre-constructed mapping relationship between the comprehensive development level coefficient and the precedence.

[0039] It can be seen that by applying the solution provided by the embodiment of the present invention, when calculating the leading degree of transportation and economic society, the comprehensive development level target coefficient can be obtained based on the fitness and transportation elasticity parameters for prediction. The fitness and transportation elasticity parameters are key indicators that reflect transportation and economic society, and the obtained comprehensive development level coefficient is not just a collection of simple indicators. Therefore, the accuracy of the leading degree calculation can be guaranteed.

[0040] In addition, the embodiments of the present invention can accurately measure the degree to which transportation precedes economic and social development. It is not a prediction of the degree of matching between transportation and the economy and society. Because transportation precedes economic and social development, it can reflect to a certain extent the situation in which transportation drives economic and social development. It is obviously more practical than the solution that only judges the degree of matching between the two. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0041] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0042] Figure 1A flow chart of a method for calculating the degree to which transportation precedes economic and social development provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0043] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of the structure of a method for calculating the degree to which transportation precedes economic and social development provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0044] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0045] In order to quantitatively evaluate the degree to which transportation precedes economic and social development, the embodiment of the present invention provides a method and system for calculating the degree to which transportation precedes economic and social development. The following first describes the method for calculating the degree to which transportation precedes economic and social development provided by the embodiment of the present invention.

[0046] like Figure 1 As shown, it is a flow chart of a method for calculating the degree to which transportation precedes economic and social development provided by an embodiment of the present invention. The calculation method may include the following steps:

[0047] S101: Obtain raw data for predicting transportation and economic and social advancement.

[0048] Among them, the degree of advancement refers to the degree to which transportation is ahead of the needs of economic and social development.

[0049] It should be noted that the embodiments of the present invention do not limit the method for obtaining the original data. In one implementation, a person skilled in the art may obtain relevant data through the National Bureau of Statistics.

[0050] S102: Standardize the original data to obtain predicted data.

[0051] The prior art has disclosed relevant technical means for normalizing data, for example, data can be normalized, etc. The embodiment of the present invention does not limit the normalization processing algorithm used when obtaining the prediction data, and those skilled in the art can select an appropriate processing method according to the specific situation in the actual application.

[0052] S103: Use SPSS software to perform principal factor analysis on the forecast data and calculate the target coefficient of the comprehensive development level of transportation and economic society.

[0053] S104: Input the comprehensive development level target coefficient into a pre-established priority degree calculation model. The priority degree calculation model calculates the target priority degree corresponding to the comprehensive development level target coefficient based on the pre-constructed mapping relationship between the comprehensive development level coefficient and the priority degree.

[0054] Among them, the leading degree calculation model is: taking the adaptability and transportation elasticity parameters between transportation and economic society as comprehensive indicators in advance, using historical data to calculate the leading degree of historical years and then constructing an initial model, and using future data to calculate the leading degree of future years and then feedback and correct the initial model to generate an optimization model.

[0055] A method for calculating the degree to which transportation precedes economic and social development is provided in an embodiment of the present invention. The method first obtains original data for predicting the precedence of transportation and economic and social development, and standardizes the original data to obtain predicted data; then, SPSS software is used to perform principal factor analysis on the predicted data to calculate the target coefficient of the comprehensive development level of transportation and economic and social development; then, the target coefficient of the comprehensive development level is input into a pre-established precedence calculation model. The precedence calculation model calculates the target precedence corresponding to the target coefficient of the comprehensive development level based on the pre-constructed mapping relationship between the comprehensive development level coefficient and the precedence.

[0056] It can be seen that by applying the solution provided by the embodiment of the present invention, when calculating the leading degree of transportation and economic society, the comprehensive development level target coefficient can be obtained based on the fitness and transportation elasticity parameters for prediction. The fitness and transportation elasticity parameters are key indicators that reflect transportation and economic society, and the obtained comprehensive development level coefficient is not just a collection of simple indicators. Therefore, the accuracy of the leading degree calculation can be guaranteed.

[0057] In addition, the embodiments of the present invention can accurately measure the degree to which transportation precedes economic and social development. It is not a prediction of the degree of matching between transportation and the economy and society. Because transportation precedes economic and social development, it can reflect to a certain extent the situation in which transportation drives economic and social development. It is obviously more practical than the solution that only judges the degree of matching between the two.

[0058] In one implementation, the adaptability between transportation and economic society can be calculated according to the following formula:

[0059]

[0060] Among them, ρ is the adaptability of transportation and economic and social development, ω1 and ω2 are the comprehensive development level evaluation indexes of transportation and economic society.

[0061] Furthermore, the development level calculation also includes: dividing the adaptability of the transportation and economic society into N levels according to the numerical value of the adaptability.

[0062] Preferably, the fitness is divided into the following five levels according to the value of ρ:

[0063] Adaptation level weak Weaker generally Strong powerful Fitness 0-0.2 0.2-0.4 0.4-0.6 0.6-0.8 0.8-1

[0064] In a specific example of the present invention, the main components of the transportation index can be determined according to the contribution rate and the cumulative contribution rate. The following Table 1 shows the characteristic values ​​and contribution rates of the main components of the transportation index:

[0065]

[0066] It can be seen that four main components are extracted from transportation in Table 1, and the total amount of information of the original data is 74.748%, which is effective as the amount of information reflecting transportation indicators.

[0067] Then, SPSS software can be used to output the component matrix of transportation, as shown in Table 2:

[0068]

[0069]

[0070] Furthermore, the principal component coefficient matrix of transportation indicators is calculated, as shown in Table 3:

[0071] index Ingredients 1 Ingredient 2 Ingredient 3 Ingredient 4 Railway operating mileage 0.06 -0.23 -0.02 -0.02 Highway mileage 0.05 0.10 -0.05 0.02 Inland waterway mileage -0.04 0.02 -0.05 0.07 Scheduled flight route mileage -0.02 -0.07 0.10 -0.01 Transportation fixed asset investment 0.10 0.02 -0.06 -0.05 Vehicle ownership 0.16 -0.04 0.01 0.01 Passenger traffic (10,000 people) 0.00 0.30 0.03 -0.02 Passenger turnover 0.05 0.25 0.05 -0.02 Cargo turnover 0.12 0.19 0.00 0.01 Information level -0.14 0.20 -0.02 -0.01 Intermodal Level -0.11 0.21 -0.03 0.00 Cargo transportation volume 0.15 0.08 0.01 0.02 Traffic accident deaths 0.14 -0.12 -0.01 0.00 Energy consumption per unit of transport turnover 0.05 0.26 -0.01 -0.03 Number of international routes -0.01 -0.04 0.11 0.02 Ocean throughput 0.09 0.22 0.00 0.05

[0072] Specifically, the function F(x) for evaluating transportation can be constructed as follows:

[0073]

[0074] Substituting the extracted principal components into formula (1), we can obtain the evaluation coefficients of various transportation indicators in historical years. Furthermore, by superimposing the evaluation coefficients of various transportation indicators, we can obtain the comprehensive development level index of transportation.

[0075] In one implementation, the transport elasticity parameter between the transport and the economy and society can be calculated according to the following formula:

[0076]

[0077] Among them, ΔQ is the change in the economy and society, Q is the absolute quantity of the economy and society, ΔP is the change in transportation, and P is the absolute quantity of transportation.

[0078] Furthermore, the development level calculation also includes: dividing the transportation elasticity parameters of transportation and economic society into M levels according to the numerical values ​​of the transportation elasticity parameters.

[0079] Preferably, elasticity can be divided into five levels according to the size of |E|:

[0080] ① Lack of elasticity: 0<|E|<1, which means that changes in transportation cause smaller changes in the economy and society, which is called lack of elasticity.

[0081] ② Elastic: 0<|E|<∞, which means that changes in transportation cause greater changes in the economy and society, which is called elastic.

[0082] ③ Single elasticity: |E|=1, which means that changes in transportation will cause changes in the economy and society to the same extent, which is called single elasticity.

[0083] ④ Completely inelastic: |E|=0, which means that no matter how transportation changes, economic and social numbers remain unchanged, which is called completely inelastic.

[0084] ⑤Perfect elasticity: |E|=∞, which means that changes in transportation will cause infinite changes in the economy and society, which is called perfect elasticity.

[0085] It can be understood that the transport elasticity coefficient is a comparison between the growth of transportation and the speed of economic and social development. It is a relatively static proportional relationship, which reflects whether the growth rate of transportation volume is synchronized with the speed of economic and social development.

[0086] Similarly, in a specific example of the present invention, the main components of the economic and social indicators can be determined according to the contribution rate and the cumulative contribution rate. The following Table 4 shows the characteristic values ​​and contribution rates of the main components of the economic and social indicators:

[0087]

[0088] It can be seen that three main components are extracted from the economy and society in Table 4, and the total information of the original data is 74.079%, which is effective as the information reflecting the original indicators.

[0089] Then, using SPSS software, we can output the economic and social component matrix at the same time, as shown in Table 5:

[0090] index Ingredients 1 Ingredient 2 Ingredient 3 Gross domestic product (100 million yuan) 0.95 0.21 0.13 GDP per capita (yuan) 0.93 0.26 0.15 The proportion of tertiary industry in GDP -0.52 -0.02 0.55 Innovation Index -0.04 -0.46 0.55 Urbanization rate 0.65 -0.63 0.07 Urban per capita income 0.12 0.56 0.18 Residents' consumption level -0.03 0.81 -0.22 Employed Personnel 0.14 -0.54 -0.59 Import and export trade 0.76 -0.03 0.06

[0091] Furthermore, the principal component coefficient matrix of economic and social indicators is calculated, as shown in Table 6:

[0092] index Weight 1 Weight 2 Weight 3 gross domestic product 0.27 0.05 0.02 GDP per capita 0.26 0.06 0.03 The proportion of tertiary industry in GDP -0.15 0.00 0.09 Innovation Index -0.01 -0.11 0.09 Urbanization rate 0.18 -0.14 0.01 Urban per capita income 0.04 0.13 0.03 Residents' consumption level -0.01 0.19 -0.04 Employed Personnel 0.04 -0.12 -0.10 Import and export trade 0.22 -0.01 0.01

[0093] Specifically, the function G(x) for evaluating the economy and society can be constructed as follows:

[0094]

[0095] Substituting the extracted principal components into formula (2), we can obtain the evaluation coefficients of various economic and social indicators in the historical years. Furthermore, by superimposing the evaluation coefficients of various economic and social indicators, we can obtain the comprehensive economic and social development level index.

[0096] In one embodiment of the present invention, the target precedence μ may be calculated according to the following formula:

[0097]

[0098] Among them, μ is the target priority corresponding to the comprehensive development level target coefficient, ω1 and ω2 are the comprehensive development level evaluation indexes of transportation and economic society, Δ max is the limit value of ω1-ω2 calculated using historical data from historical years, |Δ max |Take the maximum value of |ω1-ω2|, and α is the amplification factor.

[0099] The following is an explanation of the system for calculating the degree to which transportation precedes economic and social development provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

[0100] like Figure 2 As shown, it is a structural schematic diagram of a system for calculating the degree to which transportation precedes economic and social development provided by an embodiment of the present invention. The system includes: a data acquisition module 210, a data processing module 220, a comprehensive coefficient calculation module 230 and a priority calculation module 240.

[0101] The data acquisition module 210 is used to acquire raw data of the prediction lead time; wherein the lead time refers to the degree to which transportation is ahead of the economic and social development needs;

[0102] The data processing module 220 is used to perform standardization processing on the original data to obtain predicted data;

[0103] The comprehensive coefficient calculation module 230 is used to perform a main factor analysis on the forecast data using SPSS software to calculate the comprehensive development level target coefficient of transportation and economic society;

[0104] The priority calculation module 240 is used to input the comprehensive development level target coefficient into a pre-established priority calculation model, and the priority calculation model calculates the target priority corresponding to the comprehensive development level target coefficient based on the pre-established mapping relationship between the comprehensive development level coefficient and the priority;

[0105] Among them, the leading degree calculation model is: taking the adaptability and transportation elasticity parameters between transportation and economic society as comprehensive indicators in advance, using historical data to calculate the leading degree of historical years and then constructing an initial model, and using future data to calculate the leading degree of future years and then feedback and correct the initial model to generate an optimization model.

[0106] The embodiment of the present invention provides a method and system for calculating the degree to which transportation precedes economic and social development. The method first obtains original data for predicting the precedence of transportation and economic and social development, and standardizes the original data to obtain predicted data. SPSS software is then used to perform principal factor analysis on the predicted data to calculate the target coefficient of the comprehensive development level of transportation and economic and social development. The target coefficient of the comprehensive development level is then input into a pre-established precedence calculation model. The precedence calculation model calculates the target precedence corresponding to the target coefficient of the comprehensive development level based on the pre-constructed mapping relationship between the comprehensive development level coefficient and the precedence.

[0107] It can be seen that by applying the solution provided by the embodiment of the present invention, when calculating the leading degree of transportation and economic society, the comprehensive development level target coefficient can be obtained based on the fitness and transportation elasticity parameters for prediction. The fitness and transportation elasticity parameters are key indicators that reflect transportation and economic society, and the obtained comprehensive development level coefficient is not just a collection of simple indicators. Therefore, the accuracy of the leading degree calculation can be guaranteed.

[0108] In addition, the embodiments of the present invention can accurately measure the degree to which transportation precedes economic and social development. It is not a prediction of the degree of matching between transportation and the economy and society. Because transportation precedes economic and social development, it can reflect to a certain extent the situation in which transportation drives economic and social development. It is obviously more practical than the solution that only judges the degree of matching between the two.

[0109] In one implementation, the precedence calculation module calculates the adaptability between the transportation and the economy and society according to the following formula:

[0110]

[0111] Among them, ρ is the adaptability of transportation and economic and social development, ω1 and ω2 are the comprehensive development level evaluation indexes of transportation and economic society.

[0112] In one implementation, the precedence calculation module calculates the transport elasticity parameter between the transport and the economy and society according to the following formula:

[0113]

[0114] Among them, ΔQ is the change in the economy and society, Q is the absolute quantity of the economy and society, ΔP is the change in transportation, and P is the absolute quantity of transportation.

[0115] In one embodiment of the present invention, the priority calculation module calculates the target priority μ according to the following formula:

[0116]

[0117] Among them, μ is the target priority corresponding to the comprehensive development level target coefficient, ω1 and ω2 are the comprehensive development level evaluation indexes of transportation and economic society, Δ max is the limit value of ω1-ω2 calculated using historical data from historical years, |Δ max |Take the maximum value of |ω1-ω2|, and α is the amplification factor.

[0118] As shown in Table 7, this is the calculation table of the leading degree of transportation and economic society from 2000 to 2016:

[0119] years Transportation Index Economic and Social Index Priority 2016 -0.91 -1.36 0.14 2015 -1.28 -2.15 0.30 2014 -0.64 -1.47 0.21 2013 -1.21 -1.13 -0.03 2012 0.52 -0.68 0.19 2011 -0.13 1.73 -0.38 2010 0.85 1.95 -0.16 2009 1.42 -1.50 0.30 2008 0.63 1.66 -0.16 2007 0.75 2.66 -0.29 2006 0.64 0.96 -0.05 2005 1.67 0.77 0.11 2004 0.64 1.32 -0.11 2003 0.04 0.38 -0.07 2002 -0.20 -0.17 -0.01 2001 -0.33 -0.05 -0.07 2000 -0.01 -0.23 0.04

[0120] As for the system embodiment, since it is basically similar to the method embodiment, the description is relatively simple, and the relevant parts can be referred to the partial description of the method embodiment.

[0121] It should be noted that, in this article, relational terms such as first and second, etc. are only used to distinguish one entity or operation from another entity or operation, and do not necessarily require or imply any such actual relationship or order between these entities or operations. Moreover, the terms "include", "comprise" or any other variants thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that a process, method, article or device including a series of elements includes not only those elements, but also other elements not explicitly listed, or also includes elements inherent to such process, method, article or device. In the absence of further restrictions, the elements defined by the sentence "comprise a ..." do not exclude the existence of other identical elements in the process, method, article or device including the elements.

[0122] A person skilled in the art can understand that all or part of the steps in the above method implementation can be completed by instructing related hardware through a program, and the program can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, such as ROM / RAM, a disk, an optical disk, etc.

[0123] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the protection scope of the present invention. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention are included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for calculating the degree to which transportation precedes economic and social development, characterized in that: The calculation method includes: Obtaining raw data on the forecast lead time; wherein the lead time refers to the degree to which transportation is ahead of the needs of economic and social development; Performing standardization processing on the original data to obtain predicted data; Use SPSS software to conduct a main factor analysis on the forecast data and calculate the target coefficient of the comprehensive development level of transportation and economic society; The comprehensive development level target coefficient is input into a pre-established precedence degree calculation model, and the precedence degree calculation model calculates the target precedence degree corresponding to the comprehensive development level target coefficient based on the pre-established mapping relationship between the comprehensive development level coefficient and the precedence degree; Among them, the leading degree calculation model is: taking the adaptability and transportation elasticity parameters between transportation and economic society as comprehensive indicators in advance, using historical data to calculate the leading degree of historical years and then constructing an initial model, and using future data to calculate the leading degree of future years and then feedback and correct the initial model to generate an optimization model.

2. The calculation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The adaptability between transportation and economic society is calculated according to the following formula: Among them, ρ is the adaptability of transportation and economic and social development, ω1 and ω2 are the comprehensive development level evaluation indexes of transportation and economic society.

3. The calculation method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The development level measurement also includes: According to the numerical values ​​of the fitness, the fitness of the transportation and economic society is divided into N levels.

4. The calculation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The transport elasticity parameter between transport and economic society is calculated according to the following formula: Among them, ΔQ is the change in the economy and society, Q is the absolute quantity of the economy and society, ΔP is the change in transportation, and P is the absolute quantity of transportation.

5. The calculation method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The development level measurement also includes: According to the numerical values ​​of the transport elasticity parameters, the transport elasticity parameters of transportation and economic society are divided into M levels.

6. The calculation method according to any one of claims 1 to 5, characterized in that: The priority degree calculation model is based on the pre-constructed mapping relationship between the comprehensive development level coefficient and the priority degree, and the target priority degree corresponding to the comprehensive development level target coefficient is calculated to include: The target precedence μ is calculated according to the following formula: Among them, μ is the target priority corresponding to the comprehensive development level target coefficient, ω1 and ω2 are the comprehensive development level evaluation indexes of transportation and economic society, Δ max is the limit value of ω1-ω2 calculated using historical data from historical years, |Δ max |Take the maximum value of |ω1-ω2|, and α is the amplification factor.

7. A system for calculating the degree to which transportation precedes economic and social development, characterized in that: The measurement system includes: a data acquisition module, a data processing module, a comprehensive coefficient calculation module and a precedence calculation module; wherein, The data acquisition module is used to acquire raw data of the predicted lead time; wherein the lead time refers to the degree to which transportation is ahead of the needs of economic and social development; The data processing module is used to perform standardization processing on the original data to obtain predicted data; The comprehensive coefficient calculation module is used to perform a main factor analysis on the forecast data using SPSS software to calculate the comprehensive development level target coefficient of transportation and economic society; The priority calculation module is used to input the comprehensive development level target coefficient into a pre-established priority calculation model, and the priority calculation model calculates the target priority corresponding to the comprehensive development level target coefficient based on the pre-established mapping relationship between the comprehensive development level coefficient and the priority; Among them, the leading degree calculation model is: taking the adaptability and transportation elasticity parameters between transportation and economic society as comprehensive indicators in advance, using historical data to calculate the leading degree of historical years and then constructing an initial model, and using future data to calculate the leading degree of future years and then feedback and correct the initial model to generate an optimization model.

8. The measuring system according to claim 7, characterized in that: The precedence calculation module calculates the adaptability between the transportation and the economy and society according to the following formula: Among them, ρ is the adaptability of transportation and economic and social development, ω1 and ω2 are the comprehensive development level evaluation indexes of transportation and economic society.

9. The measuring system according to claim 7, characterized in that: The precedence calculation module calculates the transportation elasticity parameter between the transportation and the economy and society according to the following formula: Among them, ΔQ is the change in the economy and society, Q is the absolute quantity of the economy and society, ΔP is the change in transportation, and P is the absolute quantity of transportation.

10. The measuring system according to any one of claims 7 to 9, characterized in that: The priority calculation module calculates the target priority μ according to the following formula: Among them, μ is the target priority corresponding to the comprehensive development level target coefficient, ω1 and ω2 are the comprehensive development level evaluation indexes of transportation and economic society, Δ max is the limit value of ω1-ω2 calculated using historical data from historical years, |Δ max |Take the maximum value of |ω1-ω2|, and α is the amplification factor.

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