Probability rolling correction method and system for power transmission line fault caused by icing

Abstract

The invention discloses a probability rolling correction method and system for power transmission line faults caused by icing, and relates to the technical field of power systems and automation thereof, and the method comprises the following steps: obtaining scene information parameters, and dividing road segments according to the scene information parameters; calculating the fault probability of each road section; correcting the calculated fault probability according to cumulative effect rolling to obtain the fault probability of the whole road; and the fault probability of the whole road is corrected in a rolling manner according to historical information. According to the method, the fault probability of the whole line and each segment is analyzed, and the attention degree is adjusted in combination with historical data, so that maintenance and overhaul work can be more concentrated on a high-risk area or facility, and reasonable utilization of resources is realized.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of power systems and automation technologies thereof, and in particular to a method and system for probabilistic rolling correction of transmission line faults caused by icing. Background Art

[0002] In the power system, the safety and stability of transmission lines are crucial to power supply. However, extreme weather phenomena, especially icing (ice accumulation) weather, have become an important factor leading to transmission line failures. Icing usually occurs when the temperature is close to or below freezing. Frost accumulates on the transmission line by freezing precipitation or water vapor, causing the load on the line to increase sharply and eventually causing failures. Icing can cause direct damage to the line, such as wire breakage, tilting of towers, and damage to equipment, which in turn leads to power outages and large-scale blackouts. The freezing rain disaster in southern China in 2008 caused great damage to the power grid, reminding people that they need to warn of extreme disasters before natural disasters occur.

[0003] Types of line faults caused by icing include: ice overload, line dancing, insulator flashover, etc. At present, various scholars have conducted relevant research on power grid faults under each type of accident, but most of them are studies on the fault mechanism. Very few scholars have studied the power grid fault probability model under different accident types from the perspective of safe and stable operation of the power grid, and have not dynamically evaluated and adjusted the fault probability, resulting in the inability to accurately warn of icing faults. Therefore, it is necessary to study the impact of freezing rain disasters on transmission lines. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the existing rolling correction of probability of power transmission line failure caused by ice coating and the problems existing in the system, the present invention is proposed.

[0005] Therefore, the problem to be solved by the present invention is that it is not possible to accurately warn of icing faults.

[0006] In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:

[0007] In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for rolling correction of probability of transmission line failure caused by icing, which comprises the following steps:

[0008] Obtain scene information parameters, and divide the road sections according to the scene information parameters;

[0009] Calculate the failure probability of each road section;

[0010] The calculated failure probability is corrected according to the cumulative effect to obtain the failure probability of the entire road;

[0011] The failure probability of the entire road is then revised based on historical information.

[0012] As a preferred solution of the probability rolling correction method of the transmission line fault caused by ice coating of the present invention, wherein: the scenario information parameters include dynamic parameters and static parameters;

[0013] The dynamic parameters include the ice thickness R of each road section. d , the wind speed V1 of the wind perpendicular to the line direction on each section, and the angle θ1 between the wind perpendicular to the line direction and the median perpendicular line;

[0014] The static parameters include the equivalent insulator salt density ρ of each section SDD , altitude H.

[0015] As a preferred solution of the probability rolling correction method of the transmission line failure caused by ice coating of the present invention, the calculation of the failure probability of each section includes calculating the probability of line disconnection, which is specifically expressed as:

[0016]

[0017] In the formula, p l represents the probability of line breakage, σ1 represents the tension on the conductor of each line section, and σ s Indicates the maximum stress that the conductor is designed to withstand, β l It is expressed as the line design safety factor;

[0018] Calculating the failure probability of each section also includes calculating the probability of tower collapse, which is specifically expressed as:

[0019]

[0020] In the formula, p t represents the probability of tower collapse, K1, T1, K2, T2 are all constants, β t is the tower design safety factor, ΔF s Design the tower to withstand the maximum unbalanced force.

[0021] As a preferred solution of the probability rolling correction method of the transmission line failure caused by icing of the present invention, the calculation of the failure probability of each section also includes calculating the failure probability of ice flashover of each line section, and the specific steps are as follows:

[0022] For each section of the line, the failure rate of an equivalent insulator string flashover is used to represent the total failure rate of the three-phase insulator strings in the section, that is, the probability of ice flashover in the section, and the conductivity of ice water σ 20 , insulator ice weight W, equivalent insulator string salt density ρ for each line section SDD, altitude H is taken as input, the insulator flashover voltage calculation model is used to calculate the insulator flashover voltage U, and then the probability p of ice flashover occurring in each section of the line is calculated according to the insulator flashover voltage U according to the calculation formula f , the calculation formula is:

[0023]

[0024] In the formula, U0 is the actual operating voltage, K3 and T3 are coefficients;

[0025] Calculating the failure probability of each road section also includes calculating the failure probability of each line section galloping. The specific steps are:

[0026] The wind speed V1 perpendicular to the line direction on each line section, the angle θ1 between the wind perpendicular to the line direction and the median, and the conductor type coefficient α of each line section are used. l 、The span coefficient of each line section α s , the terrain coefficient α of each section of the line d 、Icing thickness coefficient α f and the surrounding environment coefficient α of each line segment r As a reference factor, define the wind excitation parameters:

[0027] E w =(V1-4)sin(θ1-45°)α d α r ;

[0028] Line parameters:

[0029] L p =α f α l α s ;

[0030] Taking these two parameters as input parameters, a fuzzy mathematical model is constructed to evaluate the probability p of dancing occurring in each line segment. d ;

[0031] The probability of disconnection in each line segment is p l , the probability of tower collapse p t , the probability of dancing occurring p d , the probability of ice flashover occurring p f , calculate the probability of line failure caused by icing on each line, expressed as:

[0032] p i =1-(1-p l )(1-p t )(1-p d )(1-p f ).

[0033] As a preferred solution of the method for rolling correction of the probability of transmission line failure caused by icing according to the present invention, the step of rolling correction of the calculated failure probability according to the cumulative effect includes:

[0034] Assume that the duration of ice coverage is t, and define the correction factor of the probability of line failure according to the thickness and duration of ice coverage as C l , specifically expressed as:

[0035]

[0036] In the formula, R d is the ice thickness of each line section, R dth is the designed ice thickness of each line section, δ l1 ,δ l2 , k1, t th1 are all constants;

[0037] Correction factor C for the probability of tower collapse t , specifically expressed as:

[0038]

[0039] Correction factor C for the probability of galloping failure d , specifically expressed as:

[0040]

[0041] Therefore, the corrected fault probability of each line section is obtained, which is specifically expressed as:

[0042] p i.adjust =1-(1-C l ·p l )(1-C t ·p t )(1-C d ·p d )(1-p f );

[0043] In the formula, δ t1 ,δ t2 ,δ d1 ,δ d2 , k2, k3, t th2 ,t th3 are all constants.

[0044] As a preferred solution of the probability rolling correction method for the transmission line failure caused by ice coating of the present invention, the method for obtaining the failure probability of the entire road is:

[0045] The failure probability of all line sections caused by icing is comprehensively considered, and the failure probability p of the entire line is calculated according to the following formula after correcting each probability. a ;

[0046]

[0047] Where P i,adjust Represents the fault probability of each line section after correction.

[0048] As a preferred solution of the method for rolling correction of the probability of transmission line failure caused by icing according to the present invention, the step of rolling correction of the failure probability of the entire road according to historical information includes:

[0049] Combine the actual number of historical line failures and the number of historical warnings to correct the real-time failure probability and assess the risk of failure. The line attention correction coefficient is expressed as:

[0050]

[0051] The line attention is described by the ratio of the historical actual fault times and the historical warning times, and the real-time fault probability is corrected. The fault probability after the historical data correction is obtained:

[0052] p=C h ·p a ;

[0053] Where N is the number of faults that occur. th is the number of fault warnings, k th is the line attention correction coefficient, and P represents the fault probability after correction of historical data.

[0054] In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a probabilistic rolling correction system for transmission line faults caused by icing, which includes a data acquisition module, a fault calculation module, and a correction module;

[0055] The data acquisition module is used to collect scene information parameters;

[0056] The fault calculation module is used to calculate the fault probability, and finally obtain the fault probability of the entire road;

[0057] The correction module is used to correct each calculated fault probability.

[0058] In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer device, comprising a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, wherein: when the processor executes the computer program, it implements any step of the above-mentioned method for probabilistic rolling correction of transmission line failure caused by icing.

[0059] In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, wherein: when the computer program is executed by a processor, any step of the above-mentioned method for probabilistic rolling correction of transmission line failure caused by icing is implemented.

[0060] The beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: by comprehensively considering real-time data (such as freezing rain forecasts, meteorological information, etc.) and static parameters (such as geographical features, environmental features), as well as historical data, it is possible to more accurately evaluate the failure probability of transmission lines under different conditions; based on the precise calculation of various types of faults (broken wires, collapsed towers, dancing, flashovers) and their cumulative effects, a more targeted risk mitigation strategy can be formulated, and preventive measures can be taken in advance to reduce power outages caused by icing; by analyzing the failure probability of the entire line and each section, and adjusting the level of attention in combination with historical data, maintenance and inspection work can be more concentrated on high-risk areas or facilities, thereby achieving rational use of resources. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0061] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for describing the embodiments. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative work. Among them:

[0062] Figure 1 Scenario diagram of the probabilistic rolling correction method for transmission line failure caused by ice cover. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0063] In order to make the above-mentioned purposes, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and easy to understand, the specific implementation methods of the present invention are described in detail below in conjunction with the drawings of the specification. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, but not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary persons in the art without creative work should fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0064] In the following description, many specific details are set forth to facilitate a full understanding of the present invention, but the present invention may also be implemented in other ways different from those described herein, and those skilled in the art may make similar generalizations without violating the connotation of the present invention. Therefore, the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments disclosed below.

[0065] Secondly, the term "one embodiment" or "embodiment" as used herein refers to a specific feature, structure, or characteristic that may be included in at least one implementation of the present invention. The term "in one embodiment" that appears in different places in this specification does not necessarily refer to the same embodiment, nor does it refer to a separate or selective embodiment that is mutually exclusive with other embodiments.

[0066] The present invention is described in detail with reference to schematic diagrams. When describing the embodiments of the present invention, for the sake of convenience, the cross-sectional diagrams showing the device structure will not be partially enlarged according to the general scale, and the schematic diagrams are only examples, which should not limit the scope of protection of the present invention. In addition, in actual production, the three-dimensional dimensions of length, width and depth should be included.

[0067] At the same time, in the description of the present invention, it should be noted that the directions or positional relationships indicated by the terms "upper, lower, inner and outer" are based on the directions or positional relationships shown in the drawings, and are only for the convenience of describing the present invention and simplifying the description, rather than indicating or implying that the device or element referred to must have a specific direction, be constructed and operated in a specific direction, and therefore cannot be understood as limiting the present invention. In addition, the terms "first, second or third" are only used for descriptive purposes and cannot be understood as indicating or implying relative importance.

[0068] In the present invention, unless otherwise clearly specified and limited, the terms "install, connect, connect" should be understood in a broad sense, for example: it can be a fixed connection, a detachable connection or an integral connection; it can also be a mechanical connection, an electrical connection or a direct connection, or it can be indirectly connected through an intermediate medium, or it can be the internal communication of two components. For ordinary technicians in this field, the specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention can be understood according to specific circumstances.

[0069] Example 1

[0070] Reference Figure 1 , which is the first embodiment of the present invention, and provides a method for rolling correction of probability of transmission line failure caused by icing, comprising the following steps:

[0071] S1. Obtain scene information parameters and divide the road sections according to the scene information parameters.

[0072] The scene information parameters include dynamic parameters and static parameters;

[0073] The dynamic parameters include the ice thickness R of each road section. d , the wind speed V1 of the wind perpendicular to the line direction on each section, and the angle θ1 between the wind perpendicular to the line direction and the median perpendicular line;

[0074] The static parameters include the equivalent insulator salt density ρ of each section SDD , altitude H.

[0075] According to the geographical characteristics of the line and the surrounding environment characteristics and their impact on the intensity, wind speed and wind direction of freezing rain, the lines with the same geographical characteristics, surrounding environment characteristics and transmission line characteristics are divided into one section, and the total number of sections of the line is set to m.

[0076] S2. Calculate the failure probability of each road section.

[0077] According to the ice thickness R of each section of the line d Calculate the ice weight G per unit length in the tension section of each line, and calculate the wind load F per unit length of the conductor in each line according to the wind speed perpendicular to the line direction and the angle θ1 between the wind perpendicular to the line direction and the median line. w ;

[0078] Calculating the failure probability of each road section includes calculating the probability of disconnection, which is specifically expressed as,

[0079]

[0080] In the formula, p l represents the probability of line breakage, σ1 represents the tension on the conductor of each line section, and σ s Indicates the maximum stress that the conductor is designed to withstand, β l It is expressed as the line design safety factor;

[0081] Calculating the failure probability of each section also includes calculating the probability of tower collapse, which is specifically expressed as:

[0082]

[0083] In the formula, p t represents the probability of tower collapse, K1, T1, K2, T2 are all constants, β t is the tower design safety factor, ΔF s Design the tower to withstand the maximum unbalanced force.

[0084] Calculating the failure probability of each section also includes calculating the failure probability of ice flashover in each section. The specific steps are:

[0085] For each section of the line, the failure rate of an equivalent insulator string flashover is used to represent the total failure rate of the three-phase insulator strings in the section, that is, the probability of ice flashover in the section, and the conductivity of ice water σ 20 , insulator ice weight W, equivalent insulator string salt density ρ for each line section SDD , altitude H is taken as input, the insulator flashover voltage calculation model is used to calculate the insulator flashover voltage U, and then the probability p of ice flashover occurring in each section of the line is calculated according to the insulator flashover voltage U according to the calculation formula f, the calculation formula is:

[0086]

[0087] In the formula, U0 is the actual operating voltage, K3 and T3 are coefficients;

[0088] The value of K3 is 0.01, and the value of T3 is U0 / ln10 5 ;

[0089] Calculating the failure probability of each road section also includes calculating the failure probability of each line section galloping. The specific steps are:

[0090] The wind speed V1 perpendicular to the line direction on each line section, the angle θ1 between the wind perpendicular to the line direction and the median, and the conductor type coefficient α of each line section are used. l 、The span coefficient of each line section α s , the terrain coefficient α of each section of the line d 、Icing thickness coefficient α f and the surrounding environment coefficient α of each line segment r As a reference factor, define the wind excitation parameters:

[0091] E w =(V1-4)sin(θ1-45°)α d α r ;

[0092] Line parameters:

[0093] L p =α f α l α s ;

[0094] Taking these two parameters as input parameters, a fuzzy mathematical model is constructed to evaluate the probability p of dancing occurring in each line segment. d ;

[0095] Among them, the terrain coefficient α d Taking the plain terrain that does not affect wind force as the benchmark (value is 1), the coefficient is increased (1 to 1.3) when encountering terrain that strengthens wind force such as wind outlets; the coefficient is decreased (0.8 to 1) when encountering terrain that weakens wind force; the surrounding environment coefficient α r Take the open environment as the benchmark (value is 1), and increase the coefficient (1 to 2) according to the number of industrial areas, residential areas, trees, and cross-lines along the line; the conductor type coefficient is calculated according to a l =n1 / 4, n1 is the number of conductor splits; the line span coefficient is calculated according to a s = l / 400, l is the span length;

[0096] The probability of disconnection in each line segment is p l, the probability of tower collapse p t , the probability of dancing occurring p d , the probability of ice flashover occurring p f , calculate the probability of line failure caused by icing on each line, expressed as:

[0097] p i =1-(1-p l )(1-p t )(1-p d )(1-p f ).

[0098] S3. Correct the calculated failure probability according to the cumulative effect to obtain the failure probability of the entire road.

[0099] The steps for rolling the calculated probability of failure based on cumulative effects include:

[0100] Assume that the duration of ice coverage is t, and define the correction factor of the probability of line failure according to the thickness and duration of ice coverage as C l , specifically expressed as:

[0101]

[0102] In the formula, R d is the ice thickness of each line section, R dth is the designed ice thickness of each line section, δ l1 ,δ l2 , k1, t th1 are all constants;

[0103] Correction factor C for the probability of tower collapse t , specifically expressed as:

[0104]

[0105] Correction factor C for the probability of galloping failure d , specifically expressed as:

[0106]

[0107] Therefore, the corrected fault probability of each line section is obtained, which is specifically expressed as:

[0108] p i.adjust =1-(1-C l ·p l )(1-C t ·p t )(1-C d ·p d )(1-p f );

[0109] In the formula, δ t1 , δ t2 , δ d1 , δ d2 , k2, k3, t th2 ,t th3 are all constants;

[0110] δ t1 and δ d1 The value can be 0.05, δ t2 and δ d2 The value can be 0.03, k2 can be 1, k3 can be 0.5, t th2 The value can be 12h, t th3 The value can be 6h.

[0111] The method to obtain the failure probability of the entire road is,

[0112] The failure probability of all line sections caused by icing is comprehensively considered, and the failure probability p of the entire line is calculated according to the following formula after correcting each probability. a ;

[0113]

[0114] Where P i,adjust Represents the fault probability of each line section after correction.

[0115] S4. Then, the failure probability of the entire road is corrected according to the historical information.

[0116] The historical disaster situation of the line can reflect that some line sections are more susceptible to icing disasters than other lines due to special topography, altitude and other reasons. At this time, the attention to the line should be increased; at the same time, in order to solve the problem of excessively high false alarm rate of the line, the attention to the line should be reduced for lines where the number of warnings is far greater than the actual number of failures.

[0117] The steps of rolling correction of the failure probability of the entire road based on historical information include:

[0118] Combine the actual number of historical line failures and the number of historical warnings to correct the real-time failure probability and assess the risk of failure. The line attention correction coefficient is expressed as:

[0119]

[0120] The line attention is described by the ratio of the historical actual fault times and the historical warning times, and the real-time fault probability is corrected. The fault probability after the historical data correction is obtained:

[0121] p=C h ·pa ;

[0122] Where N is the number of faults that occur. th is the number of fault warnings, k th is the line attention correction coefficient, and P represents the fault probability after correction of historical data.

[0123] Finally, the calculation results of the icing failure probability of the entire line are connected to the power outage prevention system to conduct a risk assessment of the failure, and the expected risk equipment set is screened based on the risk assessment results.

[0124] In summary, by comprehensively considering real-time data (such as freezing rain forecasts, meteorological information, etc.) and static parameters (such as geographical features, environmental characteristics), as well as historical data, it is possible to more accurately evaluate the failure probability of transmission lines under different conditions. Based on the precise calculation of various types of faults (broken wires, collapsed towers, dancing, flashovers) and their cumulative effects, more targeted risk mitigation strategies can be formulated, and preventive measures can be taken in advance to reduce power outages caused by icing. By analyzing the failure probability of the entire line and each section, and adjusting the level of attention based on historical data, maintenance and inspection work can be more concentrated on high-risk areas or facilities, thereby achieving rational use of resources.

[0125] Example 2

[0126] On the basis of the first embodiment, this embodiment further provides a probabilistic rolling correction system for transmission line faults caused by icing, comprising a data acquisition module, a fault calculation module, and a correction module;

[0127] The data acquisition module is used to collect scene information parameters;

[0128] The fault calculation module is used to calculate the fault probability, and finally obtain the fault probability of the entire road;

[0129] The correction module is used to perform correction processing on each calculated fault probability in a rolling manner according to the cumulative effect, and then to perform correction on the fault probability of the entire road in a rolling manner according to the historical information.

[0130] This embodiment also provides a computer device, which is applicable to the case of a probabilistic rolling correction method for transmission line failures caused by icing, and includes a memory and a processor; the memory is used to store computer executable instructions, and the processor is used to execute the computer executable instructions to implement the probabilistic rolling correction method for transmission line failures caused by icing as proposed in the above embodiment.

[0131] The computer device may be a terminal, and the computer device includes a processor, a memory, a communication interface, a display screen and an input device connected via a system bus. The processor of the computer device is used to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device includes a non-volatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system and a computer program. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of the operating system and the computer program in the non-volatile storage medium. The communication interface of the computer device is used to communicate with an external terminal in a wired or wireless manner, and the wireless manner can be achieved through WIFI, an operator network, NFC (near field communication) or other technologies. The display screen of the computer device may be a liquid crystal display screen or an electronic ink display screen, and the input device of the computer device may be a touch layer covering the display screen, or a key, trackball or touchpad provided on the housing of the computer device, or an external keyboard, touchpad or mouse, etc.

[0132] This embodiment also provides a storage medium on which a computer program is stored. When the program is executed by a processor, the method for implementing the probability rolling correction of ice-induced transmission line failure proposed in the above embodiment is implemented.

[0133] The storage medium proposed in this embodiment and the data storage method proposed in the above embodiment belong to the same inventive concept. The technical details not fully described in this embodiment can be found in the above embodiment, and this embodiment has the same beneficial effects as the above embodiment.

[0134] It should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the preferred embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that the technical solutions of the present invention may be modified or replaced by equivalents without departing from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the present invention, which should all be included in the scope of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for rolling correction of probability of transmission line failure caused by icing, characterized in that: The following steps are included: Obtain scene information parameters, and divide the road sections according to the scene information parameters; Calculate the failure probability of each road section; The calculated failure probability is corrected according to the cumulative effect to obtain the failure probability of the entire road; The failure probability of the entire road is then revised based on historical information.

2. The method for rolling correction of probability of transmission line failure caused by icing as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: The scene information parameters include dynamic parameters and static parameters; The dynamic parameters include the ice thickness R of each road section. d , the wind speed V1 of the wind perpendicular to the line direction on each section, and the angle θ1 between the wind perpendicular to the line direction and the median perpendicular line; The static parameters include the equivalent insulator salt density ρ of each section SDD , altitude H.

3. The method for rolling correction of probability of transmission line failure caused by icing as claimed in claim 2, characterized in that: Calculating the failure probability of each road section includes calculating the probability of disconnection, which is specifically expressed as, In the formula, p l represents the probability of line breakage, σ1 represents the tension on the conductor of each line section, and σ s Indicates the maximum stress that the conductor is designed to withstand, β l It is expressed as the line design safety factor; Calculating the failure probability of each section also includes calculating the probability of tower collapse, which is specifically expressed as: In the formula, p t represents the probability of tower collapse, K1, T1, K2, T2 are all constants, β t is the tower design safety factor, ΔF s Design the tower to withstand the maximum unbalanced force.

4. The method for rolling correction of probability of transmission line failure caused by icing as claimed in claim 3, characterized in that: Calculating the failure probability of each section also includes calculating the failure probability of ice flashover in each section. The specific steps are: For each section of the line, the failure rate of an equivalent insulator string flashover is used to represent the total failure rate of the three-phase insulator strings in the section, that is, the probability of ice flashover in the section, and the conductivity of ice water σ 20 , insulator ice weight W, equivalent insulator string salt density ρ for each line section SDD , altitude H is taken as input, the insulator flashover voltage calculation model is used to calculate the insulator flashover voltage U, and then the probability p of ice flashover occurring in each section of the line is calculated according to the insulator flashover voltage U according to the calculation formula f , the calculation formula is: In the formula, U0 is the actual operating voltage, K3 and T3 are coefficients; Calculating the failure probability of each road section also includes calculating the failure probability of each line section galloping. The specific steps are: The wind speed V1 perpendicular to the line direction on each line section, the angle θ1 between the wind perpendicular to the line direction and the median, and the conductor type coefficient α of each line section are used. l 、The span coefficient of each line section α s , the terrain coefficient α of each section of the line d 、Icing thickness coefficient α f and the surrounding environment coefficient α of each line segment r As a reference factor, define the wind excitation parameters: E w =(V1-4)sin(θ1-45°)α d a r ; Line parameters: L p ＝α f α l α s ； Taking these two parameters as input parameters, a fuzzy mathematical model is constructed to evaluate the probability p of dancing occurring in each line segment. d ; The probability of disconnection in each line segment is p l , the probability of tower collapse p t , the probability of dancing occurring p d , the probability of ice flashover occurring p f , calculate the probability of line failure caused by icing on each line, expressed as: p i =1-(1-p l )(1-p t )(1-p d )(1-p f )。 5. The method for rolling correction of probability of transmission line failure caused by icing as claimed in claim 4, characterized in that: The steps for rolling the calculated probability of failure based on cumulative effects include: Assume that the duration of ice coverage is t, and define the correction factor of the probability of line failure according to the thickness and duration of ice coverage as C l , specifically expressed as: In the formula, R d is the ice thickness of each line section, R dth is the designed ice thickness of each line section, δ l1 , δ l2 , k1, t th1 are all constants; Correction factor C for the probability of tower collapse t , specifically expressed as: Correction factor C for the probability of galloping failure d , specifically expressed as: Therefore, the corrected fault probability of each line section is obtained, which is specifically expressed as: p i.adjust =1-(1-C l ·p l )(1-C t ·p t )(1-C d ·p d )(1-p f ); In the formula, δ t1 , δ t2 , δ d1 , δ d2 , k2, k3, t th2 ,t th3 are all constants.

6. The method for rolling correction of probability of transmission line failure caused by icing as claimed in claim 5, characterized in that: The method to obtain the failure probability of the entire road is, The failure probability of all line sections caused by icing is comprehensively considered, and the failure probability of the entire line is calculated according to the following formula after correcting each probability: a ; Where P i,adjust Represents the fault probability of each line section after correction.

7. The method for rolling correction of probability of transmission line failure caused by icing as claimed in claim 6, characterized in that: The steps of rolling correction of the failure probability of the entire road based on historical information include: Combine the actual number of historical line failures and the number of historical warnings to correct the real-time failure probability and assess the risk of failure. The line attention correction coefficient is expressed as: The line attention is described by the ratio of the historical actual fault times and the historical warning times, and the real-time fault probability is corrected. The fault probability after the historical data correction is obtained: p=C h ·p a ; Where N is the number of faults that occur. th is the number of fault warnings, k th is the line attention correction coefficient, and P represents the fault probability after correction of historical data.

8. A probability rolling correction system for transmission line faults caused by icing, based on the probability rolling correction method for transmission line faults caused by icing as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 7, characterized in that: It includes a data acquisition module, a fault calculation module, and a correction module; The data acquisition module is used to collect scene information parameters; The fault calculation module is used to calculate the fault probability, and finally obtain the fault probability of the entire road; The correction module is used to perform correction processing on each calculated fault probability in a rolling manner according to the cumulative effect, and then to perform correction on the fault probability of the entire road in a rolling manner according to the historical information.

9. A computer device comprising a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, wherein: When the processor executes the computer program, the steps of the method for probabilistic rolling correction of transmission line failure caused by icing as described in any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method for probabilistic rolling correction of transmission line failure caused by icing as described in any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

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