Method for decomposing medium-and-long-term traded electric quantity of hydropower station

Abstract

The invention discloses a hydropower station medium and long term transaction electric quantity decomposition method, and relates to the technical field of electric power dispatching. When climate in a reservoir area is abnormal, a fluctuation coefficient is obtained by analyzing power supply quantity data of a reservoir, and if the influence degree of abnormal climate conditions on the power supply fluctuation coefficient exceeds expectation, the power supply fluctuation coefficient is determined to be abnormal; the method comprises the following steps: acquiring and predicting reservoir hydrological data, generating a deviation degree according to hydrological prediction data, and generating a trend report if the deviation degree exceeds expectation; constructing a response value according to the state number of the received first-level prediction instruction, and if the response value exceeds a response threshold value, optimizing the current water resource supply scheme; performing simulation test on a power generation scheduling plan determined according to the water resource supply scheme, generating plan feasibility according to test data, and if the plan feasibility is lower than a feasible threshold value, making a standby power generation scheme; the current power generation and supply process is intervened, and the unstable condition of power supply is handled in a targeted manner.

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