Multi-modal time-space fusion water conservancy risk real-time early warning system

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of water conservancy project risk early warning, in particular to a multi-modal time-space fusion water conservancy risk real-time early warning system, which comprises a multi-modal time-space data fusion module for performing time-space alignment and feature extraction calculation based on reservoir group sensor data flow, remote sensing images and weather forecast to obtain a fusion time-space situation value. According to the invention, by fusing the reservoir group sensor data flow, the remote sensing image and the weather forecast data, executing the space-time alignment and feature extraction calculation, and constructing the fused space-time situation value, the collaborative analysis precision and situation awareness of the multi-source heterogeneous data are improved, and the data utilization rate and the risk analysis accuracy are improved; when a potential scheduling operation set is established, gate opening degrees and flood discharge flow adjustment options under different time windows are defined, and the flexibility and the strain capacity of a scheduling scheme are enhanced, so that the scheduling operation better fits actual hydrological condition changes.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of water conservancy project risk early warning, and in particular to a multi-modal spatiotemporal fusion water conservancy risk real-time early warning system. Background Art

[0002] The technical field of water conservancy project risk early warning mainly involves a series of theories and methods for pre-monitoring, identifying and analyzing various risk events that may occur in water conservancy project facilities and related river basin systems, and predicting the development trend and severity of risks in order to issue warning information in advance.

[0003] Existing technologies have the problems of single data and static analysis mode when dealing with water conservancy project risks. In actual operation, water conservancy project risk assessment usually only relies on data monitored by local sensors, lacks in-depth correlation analysis between multi-source data, and is difficult to capture the complex interactive influence relationship between hydrological conditions and the operating status of engineering facilities; at the same time, it ignores the dynamic changes of risk situations under real-time conditions, resulting in lags and deviations in risk warnings. For example, it is difficult to timely identify sudden risks caused by dam displacement or a sharp increase in inflow, thereby delaying the best time for emergency response. Therefore, improvements are needed. Summary of the invention

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to solve the shortcomings of the prior art and propose a real-time early warning system for water conservancy risks with multi-modal spatiotemporal fusion.

[0005] In order to achieve the above purpose, the present invention adopts the following technical solution: a multi-modal spatiotemporal fusion water conservancy risk real-time early warning system comprises: The multimodal spatiotemporal data fusion module performs spatiotemporal alignment and feature extraction calculations based on the sensor data streams of the reservoir group, remote sensing images and weather forecasts to obtain fused spatiotemporal situation values. Based on the fused spatiotemporal situation values ​​and preset scheduling rules, it defines the gate opening and flood discharge adjustment options under different windows and establishes a potential scheduling operation set. A water conservancy risk quantitative assessment module, based on the potential scheduling operation set, associates the water level with the inflow flow to calculate the hydrodynamic response, calculates the impact of each operation option, obtains the scenario hydraulic impact, evaluates the dam break probability index based on the scenario hydraulic impact, and constructs a quantitative risk index library; The resource and risk budget configuration module calculates the equilibrium performance of each scenario based on the quantitative risk index library, matches the water supply guarantee rate and the power generation benefit index, obtains the risk-benefit equilibrium index, screens and sorts the scenarios based on the risk-benefit equilibrium index, and generates a risk constraint efficiency sorting list; The dispatching scheme warning release module selects scenarios according to priority based on the risk constraint effectiveness sorting list, and generates real-time risk warning signals according to the dam break probability index of the scenario.

[0006] Preferably, the step of obtaining the fused spatiotemporal situation value is: Based on the water level, inflow velocity and flood discharge rate, linear interpolation and outlier removal are performed according to the timestamp respectively, and the water level, inflow velocity and flood discharge rate are aligned to the same time series. The surface reflectivity map and terrain slope map in the same time window in the remote sensing image are combined, and the precipitation intensity grid sequence in the next three hours in the meteorological forecast is synchronized to generate the time-aligned reservoir group sensor data stream, remote sensing image map and meteorological forecast grid sequence; Based on the time-aligned reservoir sensor data stream, remote sensing image atlas and meteorological forecast grid sequence, the water level, inflow velocity, flood discharge rate and precipitation intensity at each moment are mapped to the three-dimensional geographic grid according to the regional grid number, and the multi-modal spatiotemporal feature vector set under the geographic grid is generated by combining the surface reflectivity and terrain slope of the corresponding position; Based on the multimodal spatiotemporal feature vector set under the geographic grid, a fused spatiotemporal situation value is calculated.

[0007] Preferably, the steps of obtaining the potential scheduling operation set are: Based on the fused spatiotemporal situation value, the gate water level threshold, flood discharge warning line flow and safe water level interval in the preset dispatching rules are called, parameter threshold comparison is performed item by item, the fused spatiotemporal situation value is sequentially mapped to the dispatching conditions, and a spatiotemporal situation matching parameter set that meets the gate dispatching conditions is generated; Based on the set of space-time situation matching parameters that meet the gate scheduling conditions, the gate opening adjustment level and flood discharge flow adjustment level defined for different time windows in the preset scheduling rules are called, the gate opening level selection is performed item by item, and a potential scheduling operation set is generated.

[0008] Preferably, the steps for obtaining the scenario hydraulic impact are: Based on the potential scheduling operation set, the gate opening change, flood discharge change, gate opening duration, water level monitoring sequence, inflow monitoring sequence and operation trigger time in each scheduling operation are called, and a parameter correspondence table is established according to the scheduling operation number to generate a water level and inflow scheduling response combination set; According to the water level and inflow scheduling response combination set, hydrodynamic simulation is performed item by item to obtain the maximum water level rise, inflow instantaneous slope, flow disturbance duration, flood discharge response delay and water level lag fall time corresponding to each scheduling operation, and generate a scheduling operation hydrodynamic response parameter set; Based on the scheduling operation hydrodynamic response parameter set, the scenario hydraulic impact is calculated using the following formula: ; in, For the The scenario hydraulic impact of the dispatch operation, For the The maximum water level rise corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The scheduling operation corresponds to the instantaneous slope of the inflow flow. For the The duration of the traffic disturbance corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The corresponding flood discharge response delay of each dispatch operation is For the The water level lag time corresponding to the scheduling operation is: For the The scheduling operation corresponds to the scheduling start time.

[0009] Preferably, the steps of obtaining the quantitative risk indicator library are: Based on the scenario hydraulic impact, extract the scenario hydraulic impact value corresponding to each dispatching operation number, and simultaneously retrieve the real-time displacement of the dam body, the elevation height of the infiltration line around the dam body, the peak value of the downstream flow velocity, the increase in the seepage pressure of the dam foundation and the growth of the length of the structural cracks corresponding to the number, unify the corresponding relationship between the number index, and generate the basic parameter set of the dispatching operation risk; According to the basic parameter set of the dispatching operation risk, the dam break probability index corresponding to the dispatching operation is calculated, and the calculation formula is: ; in, For the The dam break probability index of the dispatching operation, For the The real-time displacement of the dam body corresponding to the scheduling operation. For the The lifting height of the dam body surrounding infiltration line corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The downstream flow rate peak value corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The increase in dam foundation seepage pressure corresponding to the scheduling operation is For the The structural crack length growth value corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The scenario hydraulic impact of the dispatch operation; Based on the dam break probability index, each scheduling operation is bound to the dam break probability index one by one according to the operation number, an index structure is established according to the number sequence, and a quantitative risk index library is generated.

[0010] Preferably, the steps for obtaining the risk-benefit balance index are: Based on the quantitative risk indicator library, extract each scheduling operation number The corresponding dam break probability index is used to synchronously retrieve the regional water supply achievement, water supply plan value for the corresponding time period, power generation output value, installed capacity and power generation duration recorded in the dispatching operation to generate a basic parameter set for water supply and power generation; Based on the basic parameter set of water supply and power generation, the risk-benefit balance index corresponding to the scheduling operation is calculated, and the calculation formula is: ; in, For the The risk-benefit balance index corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The water supply guarantee rate corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The power output value corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The installed capacity of power generation corresponding to the dispatch operation, For the The dam break probability index of a scheduling operation.

[0011] Preferably, the steps of obtaining the risk constraint effectiveness ranking list are: Based on the risk-benefit balance index of each scheduling operation, the risk-benefit balance index is used as the sorting basis, and the numerical size is compared item by item, and sorted in descending order to form a scenario risk-benefit sorting sequence; Based on the scenario risk-benefit ranking sequence, the corresponding scenario numbers are called in the ranking order, and the serial number index matching is performed item by item. The risk ranking order is used as the index to establish a risk constraint effectiveness ranking list.

[0012] Preferably, the steps of obtaining the real-time risk warning signal are: Calling the scheduling operation number with the highest ranking number in the risk constraint effectiveness ranking list, extracting information item by item, and generating a scenario plan with the highest priority; According to the scenario plan with the highest priority, the dam break probability index value is obtained, the real-time risk level threshold interval into which the dam break probability index value falls is determined, and a real-time risk warning signal is obtained.

[0013] Compared with the prior art, the advantages and positive effects of the present invention are: In the present invention, by integrating the data streams of reservoir group sensors, remote sensing images and weather forecast data, performing spatiotemporal alignment and feature extraction calculations, constructing a fused spatiotemporal situation value, improving the collaborative analysis accuracy and situation awareness capabilities of multi-source heterogeneous data, and improving data utilization and the accuracy of risk analysis; when establishing a potential scheduling operation set, defining gate opening and flood discharge adjustment options under different time windows, enhancing the flexibility and adaptability of the scheduling plan, and making the scheduling operation more in line with actual hydrological conditions; for the calculation of scenario hydraulic influence and dam break probability indicators and the determination of risk-benefit balance index, a refined and quantitative risk assessment process is realized, the subjectivity of risk judgment is reduced, and the reliability of decision-making is improved; in the generation link of real-time risk warning signals, through the comprehensive evaluation of risk ranking sequences and real-time risk levels, risk warning signals are matched, the real-time and accuracy of risk warnings are improved, and the initiative of emergency response is enhanced. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0014] Figure 1 It is a system flow chart of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0015] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present invention more clearly understood, the present invention is further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention.

[0016] See also Figure 1 The present invention provides a technical solution: a multi-modal spatiotemporal fusion water conservancy risk real-time early warning system includes: The multimodal spatiotemporal data fusion module performs spatiotemporal alignment and feature extraction calculations based on the sensor data streams of the reservoir group, remote sensing images and weather forecasts to obtain the fused spatiotemporal situation value. Based on the fused spatiotemporal situation value and the preset scheduling rules, it defines the gate opening and flood discharge adjustment options under different windows and establishes a potential scheduling operation set. The hydraulic risk quantitative assessment module, based on the potential scheduling operation set, associates the water level with the inflow flow to calculate the hydrodynamic response, calculates the impact of each operation option, obtains the scenario hydraulic impact, evaluates the dam break probability index based on the scenario hydraulic impact, and builds a quantitative risk index library; The resource and risk budget configuration module, based on the quantitative risk index library, matches the water supply guarantee rate and power generation efficiency index to calculate the equilibrium performance of each scenario, obtains the risk-benefit equilibrium index, screens and sorts the scenarios based on the risk-benefit equilibrium index, and generates a risk constraint efficiency ranking list; The dispatching scheme warning release module selects scenarios according to priority based on the risk constraint effectiveness sorting list, and generates real-time risk warning signals according to the dam break probability indicators of the scenarios.

[0017] The steps to obtain the fusion spatiotemporal situation value are as follows: Based on the water level, inflow velocity and flood discharge rate, linear interpolation and outlier removal are performed according to the timestamp respectively, and the water level, inflow velocity and flood discharge rate are aligned to the same time series. The surface reflectivity map and terrain slope map in the same time window in the remote sensing image are combined, and the precipitation intensity grid sequence in the next three hours in the meteorological forecast is synchronized to generate the time-aligned reservoir group sensor data stream, remote sensing image map and meteorological forecast grid sequence; Based on the time-aligned reservoir sensor data stream, remote sensing image atlas and meteorological forecast grid sequence, the water level, inflow velocity, flood discharge rate and precipitation intensity at each moment are mapped to the three-dimensional geographic grid according to the regional grid number, and the multi-modal spatiotemporal feature vector set under the geographic grid is generated by combining the surface reflectivity and terrain slope of the corresponding position; Based on the multimodal spatiotemporal feature vector set under the geographic grid, the fused spatiotemporal situation value is calculated. The calculation formula is: ; in, is the fusion spatiotemporal situation value, is the water level height in a unified time series, is the inflow velocity under the unified time series, is the flood discharge rate under the unified time series, is the surface reflectance value in the corresponding regional grid, is the terrain slope value in the corresponding regional grid, It is the precipitation intensity value within three hours in the corresponding regional grid.

[0018] Specifically, based on the data sources of water level height, inflow velocity and flood discharge rate, the water level sensor and flow rate sensor records within the specified monitoring range are first read, and the timestamps are used for sequential comparison and corresponding indexes are established. Then, the water level value of each record in the monitoring data is compared to see if it is within the range of 0 to 60 meters, the inflow velocity value is within the range of 0 to 3 meters per second, and the flood discharge rate value is within the range of 0 to 4 meters per second. All records exceeding this range are marked and analyzed separately. During the analysis process, linear interpolation of the two adjacent legal time data is used to fill the excess part or eliminate obviously abnormal records for the records exceeding the range. Then, the data sequence after interpolation and elimination is sorted, and then sorted from small to large according to the monitoring timestamps. All water level data, inflow velocity data and flood discharge rate data are aligned on the same time axis. If data entries with the same timestamp are found during the alignment process, If there are duplications, only the first one is retained and subsequent duplicate entries are removed. Then, the surface reflectance map and terrain slope map in the same time window given by the remote sensing image acquisition part are used to index and match these maps with the aligned sensor time series. The corresponding time period and geographical location are checked one by one by the grid number. Then, the meteorological forecast raster data of precipitation intensity in the next three hours is loaded and mapped with the previously constructed time series and map data. Each time period has its predicted precipitation intensity value for use. Compare whether there are vacancies. If there are no vacancies, continue to associate precipitation intensity. If there are vacancies, supplement the data by referring to the values ​​of adjacent moments and comparing the rainfall distribution curve during the monitoring period. Finally, all the above multi-source data are merged into a complete and continuous record structure. After aggregation, the time-aligned reservoir group sensor data stream, remote sensing image map and meteorological forecast raster sequence can be obtained.

[0019] According to the time-aligned reservoir sensor data stream, remote sensing image atlas and meteorological forecast grid sequence, first determine the timestamp corresponding to each record and compare it with the pre-numbered regional grid set, and compare the geographical coordinates of the water level monitoring point with the pixel coordinates of the grid in the remote sensing image. If the positioning deviation is less than 1 pixel, it is determined to be the same regional grid. If the positioning deviation is greater than 1 pixel, the record and the corresponding grid are temporarily placed in a pending state and the coordinate mapping relationship is verified one by one. At the same time, the inflow velocity and flood discharge rate parameters are checked one by one, and the collected flow velocity range (0 meters per second to 3 meters per second) and flood discharge rate range (0 meters per second to 4 meters per second) are used for verification. Compare again. If any data point is found to be beyond the above range, trace back the original reading of the sensor and match the average flow velocity or flood discharge rate at adjacent times. Then load the precipitation intensity value within three hours into the same grid number, and map the surface reflectivity and terrain slope to the same three-dimensional geographic grid. Each mapping record contains fields such as timestamp, water level, inflow velocity, flood discharge rate, precipitation intensity, surface reflectivity and terrain slope. These fields are then assembled into a multimodal spatiotemporal feature vector set to ensure that each field under each timestamp is complete and corresponds to the grid number one by one. After all the data are combined, a multimodal spatiotemporal feature vector set under the geographic grid is generated.

[0020] formula: The benefit of the formula is that it can incorporate multiple spatiotemporal characteristics of different dimensions in the same expression, including water level, inflow velocity, flood discharge rate, surface reflectivity, terrain slope, and precipitation intensity in the next three hours. By comprehensively calculating these parameters in a superposition and nonlinear combination, the dynamic situation of the reservoir can be portrayed from all angles and a more refined spatiotemporal risk level can be presented, thereby providing a more comprehensive quantitative reference for real-time warning or scheduling in subsequent steps.

[0021] The acquisition steps are as follows: This parameter represents the water level height in a unified time series, which is directly read from the water level sensor data collection. During the data collection process, the water level value is captured every 10 minutes and compared with the float measurement information backed up at the same time. If the difference is found to exceed 0.3 meters, the sensor status is re-checked and the effective water level height is merged into the main record and assigned to .

[0022] The acquisition steps are as follows: This parameter represents the inflow velocity under a unified time series, which is obtained from the velocity monitoring device installed at the entrance of the reservoir area. The sampling interval is 10 minutes each time. The value is first compared with the upper limit of the velocity threshold of 3 meters per second. If it exceeds 3 meters per second, it is determined whether to correct the inflow velocity by checking each record and referring to the average velocity of the adjacent moments. After correction, the final velocity data is assigned to For example, in a certain continuous monitoring period, according to the flow rate monitoring equipment records, the inflow velocity can be obtained as 1.2 meters per second. Confirmed to be 1.2 meters per second.

[0023] The acquisition steps are as follows: This parameter represents the flood discharge rate under a unified time series, which is obtained from the online flow rate monitor at the flood discharge control pipeline. The monitor outputs a real-time value every 10 minutes and compares it with the flood discharge warning threshold of 2 meters per second. If it exceeds 2 meters per second, the values ​​of two adjacent monitoring periods are read and averaged to verify whether there is a sudden abnormality, so as to finally obtain accurate For example, in a certain record, the monitoring value within 10 minutes is 1.0 meters per second. After comparing with the previous and next time periods, there is no abnormality, which means that the moment is determined to be Equal to 1.0 meter per second.

[0024] The acquisition steps are as follows: This parameter represents the surface reflectance value in the corresponding regional grid. The reflectance value can be obtained by calibrating the brightness value of the remote sensing image pixel and performing atmospheric correction. First, use the sensor calibration file to read the gain and offset , the brightness value of each pixel in the remote sensing image Substitute the following calibration formula: For example, in a certain image, the gain of the corresponding band for , offset for , when the digital number of a pixel for When , we can get through calculation: , and then perform atmospheric correction to set an atmospheric correction coefficient for the effects of aerosol scattering and water vapor absorption. Here we will Take , then the reflectivity after deducting the atmospheric effect can be expressed as: In this example, , so it is recorded as the surface reflectivity in the corresponding regional grid field.

[0025] The steps to obtain are as follows: This parameter represents the terrain slope value in the corresponding regional grid. It is calculated by combining the elevation data in the remote sensing image with the digital terrain model provided by the surveying and mapping department. The specific method is to collect the elevation difference and the ratio of it to the horizontal distance to obtain the local slope. Then, the slopes of all grid points are normalized. The normalization formula can be written as ,in is the set of slopes of all grid points, is the original slope value of a grid, is the normalized slope value, and finally the normalized slope is assigned to For example, if the initial slope in a grid is 0.15 and it is also 0.15 after normalization, then Recorded as 0.15.

[0026] The acquisition steps are as follows: This parameter represents the precipitation intensity value within three hours in the corresponding regional grid, which is extracted from the weather forecast grid sequence and accumulated based on the hourly precipitation data provided by the meteorological department. For example, the upper limit of precipitation intensity within three hours can reach 100 mm. At this time, it is necessary to add the hourly precipitation values ​​and then compare them with the pre-set alarm value of 80 mm. If it exceeds 80 mm, it is necessary to cross-check the weather radar map and ensure that the value is correct, and then merge the total amount of three hours and record it in the corresponding grid. For example, if the total precipitation in a certain grid in three hours is 12 mm, it is directly assigned to is 12.

[0027] Calculation process: Calculate first ,in , ,get , , its absolute value is still 0.16551; Will Bring in, ,calculate , add 0.16551 to get 2772.45551, and then the square root is about 52.665; The denominator Bring in, , so , , the cube root is about 1.2599, and the numerator 52.665 divided by 1.2599 is about 41.81; Another part middle , , , calculate first , and then the denominator , the result is , add the two parts together 41.81+10.0696=51.8796, and finally square the whole to get .

[0028] The results show that when When it is about 2690.36, it means that the multimodal spatiotemporal situation at the current time and in the spatial grid presents a relatively high combined value. Combining the water level, flow velocity, precipitation and other information, it can be seen that there are certain signs of risk in the reservoir area, which requires more detailed scheduling or detection in subsequent processes.

[0029] The steps to obtain the potential scheduling operation set are: Based on the fused spatiotemporal situation value, the gate water level threshold, flood discharge warning line flow and safe water level interval in the preset dispatching rules are called, and parameter threshold comparison is performed item by item. The fused spatiotemporal situation value is mapped to the dispatching conditions in turn to generate a spatiotemporal situation matching parameter set that meets the gate dispatching conditions; Based on the set of space-time situation matching parameters that meet the gate scheduling conditions, the gate opening adjustment level and flood discharge flow adjustment level defined for different time windows in the preset scheduling rules are called, the gate opening level selection is executed item by item, and a potential scheduling operation set is generated.

[0030] Specifically, based on the fusion of spatiotemporal situation values, we first extract the specific values ​​of the gate water level threshold, flood discharge warning line flow and safe water level interval from the reservoir operation records of previous years. The gate water level threshold is determined by referring to the highest water level curve of the reservoir in the past ten years and combining it with the structural bearing limit provided by the designer. For example, the gate water level threshold is set to 55 meters because it is statistically concluded from historical data that most spillways will be overloaded after the water level exceeds 55 meters. The flood discharge warning line flow is obtained by querying the maximum carrying capacity of the downstream area during previous gate openings and combining it with the flow monitoring data of the plain river. For example, this warning line is set to 500 cubic meters per second because multiple monitoring data show that when the actual measured flow downstream exceeds 500 cubic meters per second, the river is prone to overflowing. The safe water level interval is set to a range of 30 to 50 meters based on the structural characteristics of the reservoir and the downstream water inflow conditions. Identify the relatively stable water level range. After obtaining these reference values, the water level information contained in the current fused spatiotemporal situation value and the possible flow changes will be compared one by one. If it is found that the current water level exceeds the preset gate water level threshold, the record will be marked and compared to see whether the flow of the flood discharge warning line exceeds the specified standard at the same time. If both items are in an over-limit state, it is judged that the water level and flow conditions represented by the current situation value do not meet the safety requirements. Then continue to check whether the water level falls within the safe water level interval or is lower than the lower limit of the interval by 30 meters. If it is detected that the water level is continuously lower than 30 meters, it means that the water level in the reservoir is not enough to trigger the flood discharge conditions. At this time, a note will be retained in the record and the information will be set to a lower priority. Finally, all time nodes that meet the gate scheduling conditions and the corresponding flow records are classified and summarized, and associated and matched with the grid number index, thereby generating a set of spatiotemporal situation matching parameters that meet the gate scheduling conditions.

[0031] Based on the set of spatiotemporal situation matching parameters that meet the gate scheduling conditions, different time windows are first segmented, where the window division refers to the flow and water level changes in different time periods compiled based on historical scheduling experience. For example, a smaller three-hour window is set during the night period because the inflow velocity at this time is often stable at around 1 meter per second, while a shorter two-hour window is used during the day to fully view sudden flow surges. Then, matching parameters are retrieved in each divided time period and compared with the pre-defined gate opening adjustment level table and flood discharge flow adjustment level table. The setting of these two adjustment levels refers to the safety margin of the reservoir outflow capacity and the mechanical performance of the gate. For example, the gate opening is subdivided into ten levels from 0% to 100% and corresponds to the coded values ​​of the scheduling opening from 0 degrees to 10 degrees, and the flood discharge flow is from 0 cubic meters per second to a maximum of 1000 cubic meters per second are divided into several levels to correspond to different gate opening output intensities. The data records of each time period will be compared one by one with the two tables to obtain the appropriate gate opening level and the corresponding flood discharge flow level. If the water level in this time period is higher than the aforementioned 55-meter gate water level threshold and the flow is close to the 500 cubic meters per second warning line, a larger opening level and a relatively high flood discharge flow level will be selected. If the current record shows that the water level is slightly higher than the lower limit of 30 meters and the flow is stable at around 200 cubic meters per second, a medium opening and corresponding flow can be selected. In this way, after traversing all time periods in turn, the gate opening level selection can be executed item by item and the scheduling records of each time period can be summarized. Finally, the potential scheduling operation set is integrated in all the compared time periods.

[0032] The steps to obtain the scenario hydraulic impact are as follows: Based on the potential scheduling operation set, the gate opening change, flood discharge change, gate opening duration, water level monitoring sequence, inflow monitoring sequence and operation trigger time in each scheduling operation are called, and a parameter correspondence table is established according to the scheduling operation number to generate a combination set of water level and inflow scheduling responses; According to the combination set of water level and inflow dispatch response, hydrodynamic simulation is carried out item by item to obtain the maximum water level rise, instantaneous slope of inflow, flow disturbance duration, flood discharge response delay and water level lag fall time corresponding to each dispatch operation, and generate the dispatch operation hydrodynamic response parameter set; Based on the scheduling operation hydrodynamic response parameter set, the scenario hydraulic impact is calculated using the following formula: ; in, For the The scenario hydraulic impact of the dispatch operation, For the The maximum water level rise corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The scheduling operation corresponds to the instantaneous slope of the inflow flow. For the The duration of the traffic disturbance corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The corresponding flood discharge response delay of each dispatch operation is For the The water level lag time corresponding to the scheduling operation is: For the The scheduling operation corresponds to the scheduling start time.

[0033] Specifically, based on the potential scheduling operation set, first retrieve the gate opening change, flood discharge flow change, gate opening duration, water level monitoring sequence, inflow flow monitoring sequence and operation trigger time and other parameters from a scheduling operation list one by one. When disassembling and extracting these parameters, read the gate opening change first, and check the mechanical characteristics record of the gate to make sure that the value range of the opening change is between 0% and 100%. If it is found that the gate opening change in the record exceeds 100%, mark it, and then establish a corresponding relationship between the flood discharge flow change and the gate opening change, and compare the upper and lower limits of the flood discharge flow. If it exceeds the preset upper limit of 1000 cubic meters per second, check whether there is repeated registration or abnormal registration in the record. After confirming that the value is available, read the gate opening duration and compare it with the water level data in the same time period in the water level monitoring sequence. For the water level monitoring sequence, the value is required to be between 0 meters and 60 meters. If there is any value not in this range, The water level records are checked. After the comparison is completed, the inflow flow monitoring sequence is included in the comparison range. Its range is usually controlled between 0 cubic meters per second and 500 cubic meters per second. It is recorded whether the inflow flow is greater than 500 cubic meters per second during the observation period. If it is found, it is noted in the record. Finally, the operation trigger time is read and combined with the relevant parameter information listed previously for timing alignment. The alignment method uses the operation trigger time as the index to match the corresponding time periods of the gate opening change, flood discharge change, water level monitoring sequence and inflow flow monitoring sequence to check whether the records after matching are coherent and complete. If the parameters are missing, the next step of data cannot be generated. If all are available, these interrelated records are spliced ​​and assembled, and summarized according to the scheduling operation number in the timing dimension and parameter dimension respectively. The corresponding tables of each scheduling operation that have completed the alignment and have complete content are sorted out and stored uniformly. In this way, a combination set of water level and inflow flow scheduling response can be obtained.

[0034] According to the combined response set of water level and inflow flow scheduling, the judgment basis of the maximum water level rise and the instantaneous slope of inflow flow is loaded one by one from a compiled hydraulic simulation reference standard, and the water level increasing rate in the monitoring data is compared to see whether it is in the range of 0 meters to 1 meter per hour. If the water level rising rate is greater than 1 meter per hour in any period of time in the data, the period is marked and the subsequent records are tracked and checked. Combined with the change of the instantaneous slope of the flow, it is compared to see whether it exceeds the reference value of 0.2 cubic meters per second per minute. If it is detected that it exceeds this value, the period is recorded as the disturbance moment, and then the flow disturbance duration is calculated, that is, after any record is marked as the disturbance moment Continue to check backward in sequence until the time difference when the flow rate drops back to the original stable range of 0 cubic meters per second to 500 cubic meters per second is found. Similarly, the flood discharge response delay can be determined based on the difference between the gate opening time and the flow increase time measured at the downstream monitoring section. Compare whether this delay meets the parameter range of 0 minutes to 30 minutes set in the previous safety assessment. If a delay that is too large is found, mark it again. The water level lag drop time is obtained by tracking the time it takes for the water level to drop from the highest point after the gate is closed to the stable water level before opening the gate. These five indicators are organized in a unified manner and combined with each scheduling operation number to obtain the scheduling operation hydrodynamic response parameter set.

[0035] formula: The benefit of the formula is that it can integrate multiple factors involved in the scheduling operation, such as the maximum water level rise, the instantaneous slope of the inflow, the duration of the flow disturbance, the flood discharge response delay, the water level lag time and the scheduling start time, into a unified measurement scale. It can amplify or attenuate the impact of the scheduling process through nonlinear superposition and logarithmic operations, and reflect the comprehensive balance of various key variables as a whole. This makes it more targeted and complete when evaluating the impact of the scheduling operation on the actual hydraulic conditions.

[0036] The steps to obtain are: This parameter represents the The maximum rise in water level corresponding to the scheduling operation is obtained by comparing the water level monitoring sequence before and after the scheduling operation. After each operation is completed, it is determined by retrieving the peak water level in the measured data and subtracting the corresponding water level before the operation starts. Its range is between 0 meters and 5 meters. If it exceeds 5 meters, additional verification is performed in the record. In the specific measurement process, the water level record before the scheduling is first archived, and then the highest water point after the operation is recorded. Finally, the difference between the two is made. If the actual measurement error exceeds 0.05 meters, it is corrected after comparison with the adjacent time period and finally recorded. For example, in a dispatching operation, the water level was 49.2 meters before the operation began, and the highest water level monitored after the operation was about 52.3 meters. =(52.3-49.2)=3.1 meters.

[0037] The acquisition steps are as follows: This parameter represents the instantaneous slope of the inflow flow, which is specifically used to characterize the steepness of the inflow flow change during the operation. It is obtained by recording the inflow flow within 30 minutes before and after the operation trigger moment. First, calculate the maximum increment and corresponding time difference of the 30-minute monitoring sequence, and then divide the two to get the flow change rate value, which usually ranges from 0 cubic meters per second per minute to 0.5 cubic meters per second per minute. If it is detected that it exceeds 0.5 cubic meters per second per minute, it will be marked and reviewed in the record. In order to accurately calculate this parameter, it is necessary to trace back 15 minutes forward and 15 minutes backward at the time of the scheduling operation trigger, and summarize the flow data per minute. To describe, is the maximum flow increment in this interval, is the number of minutes it takes to generate this increment, and finally Credit For example, in operation No. 2, the average inflow rate in the first 15 minutes is 145 cubic meters per second, and the peak inflow rate in the first 15 minutes after the operation starts is 170 cubic meters per second. Divide (170-145) by 10 minutes to get 2.5 cubic meters per second per minute, that is, =2.5 cubic meters per second per minute.

[0038] The steps for obtaining are as follows: This parameter represents the duration of flow disturbance. Its value is calculated by tracking the length of time that the inflow or flood discharge stays in the obvious fluctuation range. When the monitoring system finds that the flow reaches or exceeds the threshold for statistical vibration determination, the timing starts and stops when the flow returns to the level before the operation. The threshold is selected as 110% of the average flow before the operation. Once the flow exceeds 110% of the average, it is considered to have entered a disturbance. If it is always below the threshold, The value is usually less than 300 minutes. For example, for operation No. 3, the average inflow flow before the operation is 180 cubic meters per second, and 110% of it is 198 cubic meters per second. When the system observes that the flow exceeds 198 cubic meters per second after the operation is triggered and lasts for 40 minutes before falling back to around 180 cubic meters per second, then For 40 minutes.

[0039] The steps for obtaining are as follows: This parameter is used to record the delay in flood discharge response, which is the difference between the time when the gate is opened and the time when the flow rate at the downstream monitoring section increases significantly. During operation, the time when the gate is opened is read first, and then the flow rate is continuously tracked every minute at the downstream monitoring section. When the flow rate exceeds 120% of the average value before the gate is opened, the time is determined as the end point of the delay, and (end time - opening time) is used to obtain For example, if operation No. 4 is started at 13:20, and the downstream monitoring section finds that the flow rate reaches 120% of the average value before the start at 13:50, then the operation =30 minutes.

[0040] The steps to obtain are as follows: This parameter represents the hysteresis time of water level. After the gate is closed, the time for the water level to fall from the peak to the average water level before closing the gate is tracked. First, the closing time is recorded, and then in the subsequent monitoring sequence, the time node of the water level returning close to the average water level before closing the gate (i.e., ±0.1m deviation) is found. The time node is subtracted from the closing time to obtain For example, in a gate closing operation, the average water level before closing is 51.5 meters, the gate is closed at 14:10, and the water level drops and stabilizes at 51.6 meters at 14:35. =25 minutes.

[0041] The acquisition steps are as follows: This parameter refers to the scheduling start time, and the interval from 0:00 on the same day to the triggering of the scheduling is marked in minutes. For example, if it is triggered at 2:00 in the morning, it is recorded as 120 minutes, and if it is triggered at 12:00 noon, it is recorded as 720 minutes. In order to make the parameters more comparable, a day and night cycle feature table will be combined for interactive comparison to check whether the scheduling starts at night or during the day. When summarizing, all scheduling operations are sorted by Arrange in ascending order. For example, if operation No. 5 is triggered at 7:30 am on the same day, the corresponding time is 450 minutes. =450.

[0042] Calculation process: Calculate first ,when =2.5, , ,Then like =3.1, then ; Multiply it by ,like =40, then , so the molecular part ; Denominator ,like =30, =25, , , so the denominator , the numerator 78.58 divided by the denominator 3.236 is approximately equal to 24.29; Recalculate ,like =450, =3.1, ; Add 24.29 and 15.59 to get 39.88, and take its absolute value, which is still 39.88. Finally, bring it into the outermost layer. ; From this we can get .

[0043] The results show that when all parameters are configured and calculated according to the above measured values, the corresponding The scenario hydraulic impact of the dispatching operation is about 6.32, which means that the dispatching operation has a certain degree of impact under the current hydraulic environment. When the value increases to a higher level, it means that the operation has a more significant impact on the water level or flow. When it is lower than a smaller range, it means the impact is limited and serves as a reference for further decision-making.

[0044] The steps to obtain the quantitative risk indicator library are as follows: Based on the scenario hydraulic impact, extract the scenario hydraulic impact value corresponding to each dispatching operation number, and simultaneously retrieve the real-time displacement of the dam body, the elevation height of the infiltration line around the dam body, the peak value of the downstream flow velocity, the increase in the dam foundation seepage pressure and the growth of the length of the structural cracks corresponding to the number, unify the corresponding relationship between the number index, and generate the basic parameter set of the dispatching operation risk; According to the basic parameter set of dispatching operation risk, the dam break probability index corresponding to the dispatching operation is calculated. The calculation formula is:

[0045] ; in, For the The dam break probability index of the dispatching operation, For the The real-time displacement of the dam body corresponding to the scheduling operation. For the The lifting height of the dam body surrounding infiltration line corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The downstream flow rate peak value corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The increase in dam foundation seepage pressure corresponding to the scheduling operation is For the The structural crack length growth value corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The scenario hydraulic impact of the dispatch operation; Based on the dam break probability index, each scheduling operation is bound to the dam break probability index one by one according to the operation number, and an index structure is established in the order of numbers to generate a quantitative risk indicator library.

[0046] Specifically, based on the correspondence between the scenario hydraulic impact value and the dispatching operation number, first disassemble the numbers listed in the dispatching operation list and the scenario hydraulic impact values ​​associated with them, and then retrieve the parameters such as the real-time displacement of the dam body, the elevation height of the infiltration line around the dam body, the peak value of the downstream flow velocity, the increase in the seepage pressure of the dam foundation and the growth of the length of the structural cracks one by one. The sources of these parameters include the dam structure monitoring records, the seepage observation records around the dam, the collection results of the downstream flow velocity monitoring equipment, and the measurement results of the dam body cracks during regular inspections. After retrieval, match the values ​​under each number on the time axis and spatial position to ensure that the measurement period of the real-time displacement of the dam body coincides with the detection time period of the elevation height of the infiltration line. At the same time, check the specific time when the peak value of the downstream flow velocity appears and the overlap degree of the operation trigger interval. If it is found that the monitoring data of a certain numbered dispatching operation jumps between the two measuring points before and after, it is necessary to compare with other continuous observation nodes to judge the rationality of the value. If an abnormality is confirmed, the relevant items will be recorded and manually checked for data deviation. For the increase in the dam foundation seepage pressure, the collection readings of the two front and rear seepage pressure measuring points will be compared to obtain the increase. If the increase obviously exceeds the preset range of 0MPa to 0.5MPa, the collection process and equipment calibration need to be reconfirmed. For the growth of structural crack length, the increment is calculated by referring to the initial crack starting length and the final measured length marked by the crack detection personnel in daily inspections. If the increment is higher than the preset upper limit of 2 meters, it is recorded as an emergency state and reviewed again. After completing all data verification, the number and scenario hydraulic influence value and the above parameters are uniformly indexed in the order of number to ensure that each scheduling operation has a matching hydraulic influence, real-time displacement of the dam body, lifting height of the infiltration line, peak value of downstream flow velocity, increase in dam foundation seepage pressure and growth value of crack length. In this way, a relatively complete basic parameter set of scheduling operation risks can be formed.

[0047] formula: The benefit of the formula is that it simultaneously introduces the real-time displacement of the dam body, the elevation height of the infiltration line around the dam body, the peak flow velocity of the downstream, the increase in the seepage pressure of the dam foundation, the growth value of the length of the structural cracks, and the situational hydraulic influence, and performs nonlinear coupling processing on multiple risk factors. The combination of logarithms and exponentials is used to amplify smaller parameter fluctuations to a certain extent, while larger parameters are suppressed within an appropriate range. This can more comprehensively characterize the impact of scheduling operations on the safety of the dam body, and facilitate the quantitative expression of the dam break risk in subsequent evaluations.

[0048] The steps to obtain are: This parameter represents the The real-time displacement of the dam during the scheduling operation is monitored by laying multiple displacement sensors on the dam. These sensors record the displacement change of the dam in a 10-minute period and obtain the displacement increment by differential with the previous reading, and then roll the accumulation within the day to understand whether there is a concentrated change in the displacement of the dam in a short period of time. If the monitoring period spans multiple hours, the segmented records are merged to form a total displacement corresponding to the scheduling operation period. When obtaining the data, it is necessary to exclude measuring point failures and data interference, such as instantaneous reading deviation caused by artificial movement of the measuring device or strong external impact. Specifically, each record can be tested for upper and lower limits, such as controlling it within the range of 0 to 0.05 meters. If it exceeds 0.05 meters, it means that the displacement is too large and the sensor status must be re-compared. Finally, the confirmed reading is taken as the value. For example, during the duration of the No. 1 dispatch operation, if the cumulative reading of the statistical displacement sensor reaches 0.02 meters during this period, The range was determined to be 0.02 meters. The method for establishing this range is to check the monitoring records of the dam body in the past two years, collect all displacement data during 200 days of continuous operation, make a difference between the maximum and minimum values ​​to get the distribution range, and then calculate the mean and standard deviation, and locate the range of 0 meters to 0.05 meters as the more common displacement floating range. If the displacement is greater than this range, it is necessary to conduct an in-depth investigation immediately.

[0049] The steps to obtain are as follows: This parameter represents the elevation height of the seepage line around the dam body. The monitoring method is to arrange seepage pipes or observation wells around the dam shoulder and the dam body, read the seepage line height regularly, and compare it with the baseline to get an elevation value. In actual use, the seepage line is monitored once an hour, and the measured value of the seepage line at that hour is subtracted from the baseline value of the seepage line before the previous scheduling operation. The elevation value is taken and summarized. If the elevation exceeds 1.0 meter, it needs to be recorded and other observation wells need to be reviewed for comparison. For example, during the duration of the No. 2 scheduling operation, the seepage line rose from the baseline 44.2 meters to 44.8 meters, an elevation of 0.6 meters. =0.6 m.

[0050] The acquisition steps are as follows: This parameter refers to the peak value of the downstream flow velocity, which is obtained by continuous observation of the flow velocity probe on the downstream monitoring section. During each dispatching operation, the peak point is selected and recorded as The significance of this is to observe the impact of gate operation on downstream water flow velocity. When reading data, first check whether the flow velocity peak exceeds the range of 0 m / s to 5 m / s. If it exceeds 5 m / s, it is necessary to further review the probe status and river flow. For example, during a flood dispatch operation, the downstream flow velocity probe shows a peak value of 2.8 m / s, which is recorded as =2.8 meters per second.

[0051] The steps to obtain are as follows: This parameter refers to the increase in seepage pressure at the dam foundation, which is obtained by reading the pressure change relative to the pressure before the last scheduling operation from the dam foundation monitoring well or pressure measuring tube. When performing scheduling operations, the seepage pressure value is usually read every 20 minutes and compared with the baseline value. If the increase is higher than 0.5MPa, it is marked as abnormal. For example, during the No. 3 scheduling operation, the seepage pressure increased from 0.8MPa to 1.1MPa, an increase of 0.3MPa, then =0.3MPa.

[0052] The steps to obtain are as follows: This parameter corresponds to the growth value of the length of the structural crack. During daily inspections, the staff uses a crack monitor or visual recognition method to record the starting and ending coordinates of the crack. If the length of the same crack increases after the scheduling operation, this increment is recorded as , the range is generally between 0 meters and 2 meters. Repeated measurements are required after each inspection. If multiple cracks are found to have grown, the increments are calculated separately and then accumulated. For example, after the No. 4 dispatch operation, the inspection found that a crack originally 2.3 meters long had grown to 2.45 meters, an increase of 0.15 meters. =0.15 m.

[0053] The steps to obtain are: This parameter represents the hydraulic impact of the scenario and has been calculated in the previous article.

[0054] Calculation process: First, the molecular part To process, if = 0.02 m, = 0.6 m, = 2.8 m / s, =0.3MPa, then calculate first =2.5, add 1 and you get 3.5, ,Will Divide by 1.871 to get 0.3315, squared to about 0.1100; Recalculate ,like = 0.15 m, =6.32, ; ; Add the two together to get ; Bring to the outermost layer and , , Therefore , that is, the dam break probability index is 0.8723.

[0055] The results show that when the dam displacement is 0.02 meters, the infiltration line elevation is 0.6 meters, the downstream flow velocity peak is 2.8 meters per second, the dam foundation seepage pressure rises by 0.3 MPa, the structural crack length increases by 0.15 meters, and the scenario hydraulic influence is 6.32, the dam break probability index corresponding to the scheduling operation reaches 0.8723, indicating that a higher risk occurs during this scheduling process. If this value increases further, it indicates that the dam safety level under the scheduling operation is lower. When it is lower than 0.2 or 0.3, it can be regarded as a risk that is in a more controllable state. In subsequent evaluations, the dam break probability indicators of other operations can be used for sorting and corresponding control measures can be taken.

[0056] Based on the dam break probability index, first check the number of each dispatching operation and the calculated dam break probability index value one by one, and search the records of these dispatching operation numbers in chronological order. If it is found that some dispatching operations occur in a very short time interval and the dam break probability index exceeds 0.8, the warning value established by engineering practice, it is necessary to combine the monitoring logs around the dam body for cross-verification to check whether the monitoring data input is accurate and whether there are abnormal operation triggering events. If confirmed to be correct, these numbered operations can be marked as key focus objects, and then compared with those operations whose dam break probability index falls between 0.2 and 0.8. By comparing the seepage pressure changes, the lift of the infiltration line and the cracks in the dam body structure, the The newly added conditions and other parameters are used to determine whether their safety status is within an acceptable range, and to check whether they belong to the same batch of dispatch in the current period. If they belong to the same batch, these numbers will be sorted from large to small according to the dam break probability value and recorded in the index structure. Operations with a probability value lower than 0.2 are classified as low-risk operations and directly attached with corresponding information such as real-time displacement of the dam body and downstream flow velocity. The final integrated data will be listed one by one by number, and an index file of the quantitative risk indicator library will be established for subsequent risk identification. After such a number binding and retrieval process, the dam break probability indicators of different operations can be clearly presented and provided to relevant managers together with their respective monitoring data for further decision-making.

[0057] The steps to obtain the risk-benefit balance index are: Based on the quantitative risk indicator library, extract each scheduling operation number The corresponding dam break probability index is used to synchronously retrieve the regional water supply achievement, water supply plan value for the corresponding time period, power generation output value, installed capacity and power generation duration recorded in the dispatching operation to generate a basic parameter set for water supply and power generation; Based on the basic parameter set of water supply and power generation, the risk-benefit balance index corresponding to the dispatching operation is calculated using the following formula: ; in, For the The risk-benefit balance index corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The water supply guarantee rate corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The power output value corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The installed capacity of power generation corresponding to the dispatch operation, For the The dam break probability index of a scheduling operation.

[0058] Specifically, based on the dam break probability index records corresponding to the quantitative risk index library, the regional water supply achievement and water supply plan values ​​for the time period of each scheduling operation number are first extracted from the scheduling operation list, and the two are compared to obtain the water supply guarantee rate within a certain period of time. At the same time, the power output value, installed capacity and power generation time are read from the scheduling operation record. The water supply achievement can be obtained through the daily water output statistics of the regional water plant. The established water supply plan value in the same period is compared to check whether the total water consumption in actual implementation is consistent with the planned demand. If it is higher than the pre-set demand, the achievement rate is marked as exceeding 1 in the record. If it is lower than the demand, the specific value of the achievement rate is calculated by comparing the difference. At this time, it is necessary to check whether the achievement rate has significantly exceeded the conventional range of 0 to 1. If it exceeds, the water supply statistical input process is traced back. At the same time, the power output value is obtained from the operation record of the hydropower unit and the unit number is checked to see if it is consistent. Then the power generation unit is read. The installed capacity is usually in the range of 100MW to 500MW. If the installed capacity record is found to be 0 or significantly less than this range, it needs to be checked in time. The power generation time is obtained by subtracting the start and end time of each continuous operation of the unit. The power generation time is between 0 hours and 24 hours. If a single operation time is detected to be negative, it means that the record is wrong. After checking the above indicators, the dam break probability indicator under each scheduling operation number is catalogued together with its corresponding water supply and power generation data to ensure that the time intervals of each value correspond correctly. If the water supply data and power generation data records corresponding to a certain number are complete, the number status is marked as available. If there are data gaps in some records, they are marked as to be supplemented and the data of the same period are collected in the subsequent period to check for omissions. Finally, the above matched data are integrated in the order of numbers and added with attached instructions to form a basic parameter set for water supply and power generation.

[0059] formula: The benefit of the formula is that it combines multiple factors such as water supply guarantee rate, power output value, installed capacity and dam break probability index to make an overall trade-off between the risks and benefits of a single dispatching operation. It incorporates parameters of different magnitudes into the same framework through operations such as logarithms, absolute values ​​and square roots, and achieves a balanced expression between water supply effectiveness and safety risks, providing a quantitative reference for dispatching decisions.

[0060] The acquisition steps are as follows: This parameter represents the water supply guarantee rate, and its value is obtained by the ratio of the regional water supply achieved and the water supply plan value in the same period. After each scheduling operation starts, the start and end time of the operation is extracted. The actual water supply in this period is summarized and compared with the water supply plan prepared in advance. If the actual water supply is recorded as The planned quantity is recorded as ,but For example, during a certain operation, the measured water supply is 200,000 , planned quantity 250,000 ,but .

[0061] The acquisition steps are as follows: This parameter represents the power output value of the power generation. During the execution of the dispatch operation, the real-time power readings of the power system are monitored, and the peak and average values ​​of the power recorded once an hour are compared. If the difference between the peak and average values ​​is within a certain range (for example, 0MW to 50MW), it is determined that the power generation load is in a relatively stable state, and the average power during this period is selected as , or you can calculate the average power output from the segmented statistics of power generation after the unit is finished running, and then check it with the unit log record. For example, during a certain dispatching operation, the average output power of the unit is 120MW, then MW.

[0062] The steps to obtain are: This parameter refers to the installed capacity of power generation, reflecting the maximum output level of the hydropower station unit design. If the installed capacity in the record exceeds 500MW, the equipment file verification is carried out. Generally, the installed capacity of a single unit of a medium-sized hydropower facility is between 50MW and 200MW. For example, if the rated installed capacity of the unit No. 3 is queried to be 150MW, then .

[0063] The steps for obtaining are as follows: This parameter is the dam break probability index, which has been calculated in the previous article and recorded in the quantitative risk index library.

[0064] Calculation process: Calculate first ,like =0.8, ,but , Calculate again ,like =120, =150, then , Multiply the two and take the absolute value: , Take the square root: , Denominator ,like =0.8723, , Divide the numerator 0.6274 by 1.9339, which is approximately 0.3245, and cube it: , Therefore .

[0065] The results show that when the water supply guarantee rate is 0.8, the power output value is 120MW, the installed capacity is 150MW, and the dam break probability index is 0.8723, the risk-benefit balance index is about 0.0342. The larger the value, the higher the proportion of the scheduling operation in water supply and power generation benefits. A small value means that although it can provide certain power generation or water supply benefits, the relative risk level cannot be ignored. In subsequent evaluations, it can be compared with the balance index of other operations to select a more appropriate scheduling plan.

[0066] The steps to obtain the risk constraint effectiveness ranking list are: Based on the risk-benefit balance index of each scheduling operation, the risk-benefit balance index is used as the sorting basis, and the numerical size is compared item by item, and sorted in descending order to form a scenario risk-benefit sorting sequence; Based on the scenario risk-benefit ranking sequence, the corresponding scenario number is called in the ranking order, and the serial number index matching is performed item by item. The risk ranking order is used as the index to establish a risk constraint effectiveness ranking list.

[0067] Specifically, based on the risk-benefit balance index of each dispatching operation, first read the paired content of the corresponding number and its risk-benefit balance index one by one from the previously established dispatching operation list, and compare the values ​​of these balance indices in the same dimension. When comparing, all record items need to be listed in numerical order and the risk-benefit balance index therein needs to be extracted. During the extraction process, attention should be paid to whether there are numerical errors or omissions. For example, when it is detected that the balance index of a certain operation number is negative or exceeds 2, such abnormal values, it is necessary to check the water supply guarantee rate, power generation capacity and dam break probability indicators under the dispatching operation, and continue only after confirming that the input process and calculation process are correct. If the balance index is between 0 and 1, it means that the value is relatively reasonable. If it is higher than 1, it is also necessary to check whether it is caused by the water supply reaching the predetermined planned value. After all values ​​have been checked and confirmed to be available, follow the regulations. The sorting is based on descending order of these equilibrium indexes. For example, first scan the index records of all operation numbers and count the equilibrium index of each number, then copy the obtained index list as temporary data and compare them in order from large to small according to the numerical value. The comparison method can be pairwise comparison, such as judging the size relationship of the equilibrium index of two consecutive items respectively. If they are greater than or equal to the previous item, the positions are swapped, and the cycle continues until the position of each record no longer changes. The above index list can also be directly selected by the maximum value insertion method to find the largest equilibrium index in this batch of scheduling operations and put it at the first place in the list, and then select the next largest equilibrium index in turn to complete the sorting of all numbers. If some numbers have the same equilibrium index, they are ranked and supplemented in order according to the operation trigger time. After each sorting is completed, a scenario risk-benefit sorting sequence arranged from large to small is formed.

[0068] Based on the scenario risk-benefit sorting sequence, the association between each scenario number in the sorting sequence and the original dispatching operation is checked one by one from the number index data set cited in the previous article, and the serial number index matching is performed against the sequence order number. If a dispatching operation matching the current number is found in the index data, the corresponding hydraulic environment and water supply and power generation information is read for further recording. At the same time, it is determined whether the scenario number falls into the group of high-risk dispatching operations. If the dam break probability index is higher than 0.8 or other monitoring parameters exceed the predetermined standards, this type of scenario number needs to be additionally marked, and then check whether the remaining dispatching operations in the sorting sequence also have the same situation, and all marked High-risk operations that have been recorded are grouped together for later reference. If there is a number in the sequence that has not been successfully matched in the index data, it is necessary to trace back the scheduling record corresponding to the number to see if it has been considered as a data anomaly in the previous step. If it is confirmed to be in an abnormal or invalid state, the number is removed from the index matching result this time. The remaining numbers that have been successfully matched and have no anomalies continue to be summarized in sorted order. For each number, its previously inserted sequence identifier is retained. Finally, the risk sort order is added to the number list so that the corresponding scenarios and their numbers can be clearly viewed from the first to the last rank. In this way, a risk constraint effectiveness sort list can be constructed.

[0069] The steps to obtain real-time risk warning signals are as follows: Call the scheduling operation number with the highest ranking number in the risk constraint effectiveness ranking list, extract information item by item, and generate the scenario plan with the highest priority; According to the scenario plan with the highest priority, the dam break probability index value is obtained, the real-time risk level threshold interval into which the dam break probability index value falls is determined, and a real-time risk warning signal is obtained.

[0070] Specifically, call the dispatch operation number with the highest ranking in the risk constraint efficiency sorting list, first read the gate opening period, water level, water supply and power output and other fields corresponding to the number in the previously constructed index structure, cross-check these fields with the dam break probability index and its period to see if there is any data overlap. If it is found that the water supply achievement does not match the planned value or the power output is too far away from the average installed capacity, compare the adjacent operation numbers again to confirm whether the record value in the number is within the range of 0 to 1 or 0MW to 500MW. If everything is normal, keep the number and check whether it is the first in the sorting list. If it has been determined to be the first number, the corresponding dam body monitoring information will be included. Import, for example, retrieve the previously collected data such as dam displacement, flow rate peak, seepage pressure increase, etc., and compare them with the pre-established monitoring standards. For example, the seepage pressure increase should be in the range of 0MPa to 0.5MPa. If there is a record breaking this limit, mark the abnormality in the comparison log and summarize it in the subsequent inspection items. After confirming that the data corresponding to the number is valid, continue to check other relevant information, including whether the gate opening change corresponds to the instantaneous slope of the inflow flow within the previously defined range of 0 cubic meters per second per minute to 0.5 cubic meters per second per minute. If all parameters are within the previous safety range, mark this number in the record as executable, and then generate the highest priority scenario plan, archive the plan and provide comparison data for the next link, and finally obtain the highest priority scenario plan.

[0071] According to the scenario with the highest priority, the recorded dam break probability index value is loaded and compared with the grading standard set by the project team. The grading standard is based on the comprehensive analysis of the dam break risk distribution and regular on-site inspection results in the past three years, and divides 0 to 1 into several intervals. For example, 0 to 0.2 is defined as low risk, 0.2 to 0.5 is defined as medium risk, 0.5 to 0.8 is defined as high risk, and more than 0.8 is defined as high risk. When the dam break probability index falls into the corresponding interval in this scheduling operation, the risk grading information is first added to the number in the record. If the value is found to be higher than 0.8, the operation number is marked as high risk, and a real-time risk warning signal is output at the current moment. If it falls into other risk levels, the level value is noted and the downstream flow, dam foundation seepage pressure and dam body crack growth are compared, and then the latest risk warning is generated. When the warning signal is output, the corresponding timestamp is retained at the same time, and this warning is written into the current monitoring information, so as to finally obtain a real-time risk warning signal.

Claims

1. The multi-modal spatiotemporal fusion water conservancy risk real-time early warning system is characterized by: The system comprises: The multimodal spatiotemporal data fusion module performs spatiotemporal alignment and feature extraction calculations based on the sensor data streams of the reservoir group, remote sensing images and weather forecasts to obtain fused spatiotemporal situation values. Based on the fused spatiotemporal situation values ​​and preset scheduling rules, it defines the gate opening and flood discharge adjustment options under different windows and establishes a potential scheduling operation set. A water conservancy risk quantitative assessment module, based on the potential scheduling operation set, associates the water level with the inflow flow to calculate the hydrodynamic response, calculates the impact of each operation option, obtains the scenario hydraulic impact, evaluates the dam break probability index based on the scenario hydraulic impact, and constructs a quantitative risk index library; The resource and risk budget configuration module calculates the equilibrium performance of each scenario based on the quantitative risk index library, matches the water supply guarantee rate and the power generation benefit index, obtains the risk-benefit equilibrium index, screens and sorts the scenarios based on the risk-benefit equilibrium index, and generates a risk constraint efficiency sorting list; The dispatching scheme warning release module selects scenarios according to priority based on the risk constraint effectiveness sorting list, and generates real-time risk warning signals according to the dam break probability index of the scenario.

2. The multi-modal spatiotemporal fusion water conservancy risk real-time early warning system according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The steps for obtaining the fused spatiotemporal situation value are as follows: Based on the water level, inflow velocity and flood discharge rate, linear interpolation and outlier removal are performed according to the timestamp respectively, and the water level, inflow velocity and flood discharge rate are aligned to the same time series. The surface reflectivity map and terrain slope map in the same time window in the remote sensing image are combined, and the precipitation intensity grid sequence in the next three hours in the meteorological forecast is synchronized to generate the time-aligned reservoir group sensor data stream, remote sensing image map and meteorological forecast grid sequence; Based on the time-aligned reservoir sensor data stream, remote sensing image atlas and meteorological forecast grid sequence, the water level, inflow velocity, flood discharge rate and precipitation intensity at each moment are mapped to the three-dimensional geographic grid according to the regional grid number, and the multi-modal spatiotemporal feature vector set under the geographic grid is generated by combining the surface reflectivity and terrain slope of the corresponding position; Based on the multimodal spatiotemporal feature vector set under the geographic grid, a fused spatiotemporal situation value is calculated.

3. The multi-modal spatiotemporal fusion water conservancy risk real-time early warning system according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The steps of obtaining the potential scheduling operation set are: Based on the fused spatiotemporal situation value, the gate water level threshold, flood discharge warning line flow and safe water level interval in the preset dispatching rules are called, parameter threshold comparison is performed item by item, the fused spatiotemporal situation value is sequentially mapped to the dispatching conditions, and a spatiotemporal situation matching parameter set that meets the gate dispatching conditions is generated; Based on the set of space-time situation matching parameters that meet the gate scheduling conditions, the gate opening adjustment level and flood discharge flow adjustment level defined for different time windows in the preset scheduling rules are called, the gate opening level selection is performed item by item, and a potential scheduling operation set is generated.

4. The multi-modal spatiotemporal fusion water conservancy risk real-time early warning system according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The steps for obtaining the scenario hydraulic impact are as follows: Based on the potential scheduling operation set, the gate opening change, flood discharge change, gate opening duration, water level monitoring sequence, inflow monitoring sequence and operation trigger time in each scheduling operation are called, and a parameter correspondence table is established according to the scheduling operation number to generate a water level and inflow scheduling response combination set; According to the water level and inflow scheduling response combination set, hydrodynamic simulation is performed item by item to obtain the maximum water level rise, inflow instantaneous slope, flow disturbance duration, flood discharge response delay and water level lag fall time corresponding to each scheduling operation, and generate a scheduling operation hydrodynamic response parameter set; Based on the scheduling operation hydrodynamic response parameter set, the scenario hydraulic impact is calculated using the following formula: ； in, For the The scenario hydraulic impact of the dispatch operation, For the The maximum water level rise corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The scheduling operation corresponds to the instantaneous slope of the inflow flow. For the The duration of the traffic disturbance corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The corresponding flood discharge response delay of each dispatch operation is For the The water level lag time corresponding to the scheduling operation is: For the The scheduling operation corresponds to the scheduling start time.

5. The multi-modal spatiotemporal fusion water conservancy risk real-time early warning system according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The steps for obtaining the quantitative risk indicator library are as follows: Based on the scenario hydraulic impact, extract the scenario hydraulic impact value corresponding to each dispatching operation number, and simultaneously retrieve the real-time displacement of the dam body, the elevation height of the infiltration line around the dam body, the peak value of the downstream flow velocity, the increase in the seepage pressure of the dam foundation and the growth of the length of the structural cracks corresponding to the number, unify the corresponding relationship between the number index, and generate the basic parameter set of the dispatching operation risk; According to the basic parameter set of the dispatching operation risk, the dam break probability index corresponding to the dispatching operation is calculated, and the calculation formula is: ; in, For the The dam break probability index of the dispatching operation, For the The real-time displacement of the dam body corresponding to the scheduling operation. For the The lifting height of the dam body surrounding infiltration line corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The downstream flow rate peak value corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The increase in dam foundation seepage pressure corresponding to the scheduling operation is For the The structural crack length growth value corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The scenario hydraulic impact of the dispatch operation; Based on the dam break probability index, each scheduling operation is bound to the dam break probability index one by one according to the operation number, an index structure is established according to the number sequence, and a quantitative risk index library is generated.

6. The multi-modal spatiotemporal fusion water conservancy risk real-time early warning system according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The steps for obtaining the risk-benefit balance index are: Based on the quantitative risk indicator library, extract each scheduling operation number The corresponding dam break probability index is used to synchronously retrieve the regional water supply achievement, water supply plan value for the corresponding time period, power generation output value, installed capacity and power generation duration recorded in the dispatching operation to generate a basic parameter set for water supply and power generation; Based on the basic parameter set of water supply and power generation, the risk-benefit balance index corresponding to the scheduling operation is calculated, and the calculation formula is: ; in, For the The risk-benefit balance index corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The water supply guarantee rate corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The power output value corresponding to the scheduling operation, For the The installed capacity of power generation corresponding to the dispatch operation, For the The dam break probability index of a scheduling operation.

7. The multi-modal spatiotemporal fusion water conservancy risk real-time early warning system according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The steps for obtaining the risk constraint effectiveness ranking list are as follows: Based on the risk-benefit balance index of each scheduling operation, the risk-benefit balance index is used as the sorting basis, and the numerical size is compared item by item, and sorted in descending order to form a scenario risk-benefit sorting sequence; Based on the scenario risk-benefit ranking sequence, the corresponding scenario numbers are called in the ranking order, and the serial number index matching is performed item by item. The risk ranking order is used as the index to establish a risk constraint effectiveness ranking list.

8. The multi-modal spatiotemporal fusion water conservancy risk real-time early warning system according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The steps for obtaining the real-time risk warning signal are: Calling the scheduling operation number with the highest ranking number in the risk constraint effectiveness ranking list, extracting information item by item, and generating a scenario plan with the highest priority; According to the scenario plan with the highest priority, the dam break probability index value is obtained, the real-time risk level threshold interval into which the dam break probability index value falls is determined, and a real-time risk warning signal is obtained.

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