Exploration right value evaluation method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium

Abstract

The invention discloses an exploration right value evaluation method and device, electronic equipment and a storage medium. The method is characterized by comprising the following steps: acquiring a value evaluation parameter of a to-be-evaluated target oil and gas block; performing investment output value evaluation on the target oil and gas block according to the value evaluation parameter, and determining an investment distribution function and an output distribution function of the target oil and gas block; and performing Monte Carlo simulation according to the investment distribution function and the output distribution function based on three preset Monte Carlo simulation methods, and determining a target auction cost of the target oil and gas block. Value evaluation of the oil and gas exploration right target block is realized, and a decision basis is provided for competition of the target oil and gas block for the expected value index of the cost.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of oil and gas exploration market, and in particular to a method, device, electronic equipment and storage medium for evaluating the value of prospecting rights. Background Art

[0002] Oil and gas prospecting rights refer to the right to explore mineral resources for oil and gas resources. When applying for oil and gas prospecting rights, it is only necessary to evaluate the exploration potential of the prospecting rights block to decide whether to apply. With the implementation of the current open competition system for oil and gas prospecting rights, the competing enterprises for oil and gas prospecting rights are determined by competition, and the value assessment of the target oil and gas blocks affects the competitive price reported during the competition process. In the prior art, the value assessment of the target oil and gas block is usually based on the exploration value of the target oil and gas block, without considering the impact of the product market and exploration costs on the value of the target oil and gas block, resulting in the inability to accurately identify the value of the target oil and gas block and difficulty in determining an effective competitive price. Summary of the invention

[0003] The present invention provides a prospecting right value assessment method, device, electronic equipment and storage medium to achieve accurate assessment of the prospecting right value of a target oil and gas block and reasonable evaluation of the competitive cost.

[0004] According to one aspect of the present invention, a method for evaluating the value of prospecting rights is provided, comprising:

[0005] Obtaining the value assessment parameters of the target oil and gas block to be assessed;

[0006] Performing an investment-output value assessment on the target oil and gas block according to the value assessment parameters, and determining an investment distribution function and an output distribution function of the target oil and gas block;

[0007] Based on the three preset Monte Carlo simulation methods, Monte Carlo simulation is performed according to the investment distribution function and the output distribution function to determine the target bidding price of the target oil and gas block.

[0008] According to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided a device for evaluating the value of prospecting rights, comprising:

[0009] A geological information collection module is used to obtain the value assessment parameters of the target oil and gas blocks to be assessed;

[0010] A value simulation module, used to perform investment-output value evaluation on the target oil and gas block according to the value evaluation parameters, and determine the investment distribution function and output distribution function of the target oil and gas block;

[0011] The value assessment module is used to perform Monte Carlo simulation according to the investment distribution function and the output distribution function based on three preset Monte Carlo simulation methods to determine the target bidding price of the target oil and gas block.

[0012] According to another aspect of the present invention, an electronic device is provided, the electronic device comprising:

[0013] at least one processor; and

[0014] a memory communicatively connected to the at least one processor; wherein,

[0015] The memory stores a computer program that can be executed by the at least one processor, and the computer program is executed by the at least one processor so that the at least one processor can execute the prospecting right value assessment method described in any embodiment of the present invention.

[0016] According to another aspect of the present invention, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, wherein the computer-readable storage medium stores computer instructions, and the computer instructions are used to enable a processor to implement the method for evaluating the value of prospecting rights described in any embodiment of the present invention when executed.

[0017] The technical solution of the embodiment of the present invention obtains the value assessment parameters of the target oil and gas block to be assessed, takes the value assessment parameters of the target oil and gas block as the basis for assessment, and improves the accuracy of assessment; performs investment-output value assessment on the target oil and gas block according to the value assessment parameters, determines the investment distribution function and output distribution function of the target oil and gas block, performs investment-output assessment on the target oil and gas block through the value assessment parameters, obtains the investment-output situation of the target oil and gas block, comprehensively considers the value information of the target oil and gas block, and improves the accuracy of value assessment on the target oil and gas block; performs Monte Carlo simulation based on the investment distribution function and the output distribution function based on the three preset Monte Carlo simulation methods, determines the target auction price of the target oil and gas block, simulates the target oil and gas block through the three Monte Carlo simulation methods, and comprehensively and accurately determines the effective target auction price. The technical problem that the oil and gas prospecting rights cannot be accurately assessed in the prior art is solved, and the accurate and comprehensive simulation of the oil and gas prospecting rights value of the target oil and gas block is realized. In the evaluation process, exploration risks are combined to provide an effective decision-making basis for the competition of oil and gas prospecting rights.

[0018] It should be understood that the contents described in this section are not intended to identify the key or important features of the embodiments of the present invention, nor are they intended to limit the scope of the present invention. Other features of the present invention will become easily understood through the following description. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0019] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the description of the embodiments. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative work.

[0020] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a method for evaluating the value of prospecting rights provided in Example 1 of the present invention;

[0021] Figure 2 An evaluation coordinate diagram of an internal rate of return distribution function provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0022] Figure 3 is a flow chart of another method for evaluating the value of prospecting rights provided in the second embodiment of the present invention;

[0023] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of a prospecting right value assessment device provided in Embodiment 3 of the present invention;

[0024] Figure 5 It is a structural schematic diagram of an electronic device for implementing the prospecting right value assessment method according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0025] In order to enable those skilled in the art to better understand the scheme of the present invention, the technical scheme in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work should fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0026] Embodiment 1

[0027] Figure 1 The first embodiment of the present invention provides a flowchart of a method for evaluating the value of prospecting rights. This embodiment can be applied to the value evaluation of oil and gas prospecting rights blocks, and provide an effective competitive price reference value for oil and gas prospecting rights. The method can be executed by a prospecting rights value evaluation device, which can be implemented in the form of hardware and / or software, and can be configured in an electronic device. Figure 1 As shown, the method includes:

[0028] S110, obtaining value assessment parameters of the target oil and gas block to be assessed.

[0029] Among them, the target oil and gas block can be the object of competition for public oil and gas resource prospecting rights. It should be noted that the target oil and gas block is usually a block that provides oil and gas prospecting rights in the official oil and gas resource block competition announcement, and the target oil and gas block usually includes the location, scope and area of ​​the block.

[0030] The value assessment parameters may be parameter information for conducting value assessment on the target oil and gas block; optionally, the value assessment parameters include geological resource evaluation parameters, investment evaluation parameters and output evaluation parameters of the target oil and gas block.

[0031] Optionally, the geological resource evaluation parameters may be evaluation parameters for evaluating the recoverable resources of the geological resources in the target oil and gas block; wherein, the geological resource evaluation parameters generally include geological resource information and a recoverable resource conversion coefficient; it should be noted that the recoverable resource conversion coefficient may be a resource conversion coefficient pre-set for evaluating the target oil and gas block; the target oil and gas block may be drilled using resource exploration drilling technology, wherein the drill bit is inserted underground through underground drilling, and various information on underground rocks, soil and hydrology is obtained through coring, sampling and water level measurement, and the properties and structural status of sedimentary rocks in the exploration area are understood based on the geological information obtained, and then the distribution of underground oil and gas resources is inferred, thereby obtaining the geological resource information of the target oil and gas block. For example, drilling was carried out on the target oil and gas block, and it was determined that the target oil and gas block has two sets of high-quality source rocks in the Lower Cambrian, two sets of dolomite reservoirs with developed Upper Sinian and Lower Cambrian hilly-beach dissolution pores and fractures, and two sets of salt layers developed in the Middle Cambrian constitute good cap rocks. Taking into account the reliability of the closure and the oil and gas enrichment conditions, it is believed that the target oil and gas area has excellent accumulation conditions and good exploration potential.

[0032] Optionally, the investment evaluation parameters can be used to evaluate the parameters for development investment of the target oil and gas block; wherein, the investment evaluation parameters include exploration investment parameters and development investment parameters; the exploration investment parameters can be used to evaluate the cost required for exploration of the target oil and gas block; before developing the target oil and gas block, it is necessary to conduct geological exploration of the target oil and gas block, determine the exploration investment estimate based on the exploration deployment workload and unit workload cost of the target oil and gas block, and then determine the exploration investment parameters for developing the target oil and gas block. Exemplarily, the exploration investment reference can estimate three investment plans, namely the minimum investment plan, the maximum investment plan, and the most likely investment plan.

[0033] Optionally, the development investment parameters can be used to evaluate the cost required for the development of the target oil and gas block; during the development of the target oil and gas block, a certain amount of development investment is required to carry out oil and gas development and construction, oil and gas field adjustment and technical transformation of the target oil and gas block, and to build development wells, surface projects, supporting projects, and downstream projects related to the target oil and gas block, and add operating costs and other investment parameters in the oil and gas development process, and then determine the development investment parameters of the target oil and gas block. Exemplarily, during the development of the target oil and gas block, the minimum investment plan, maximum investment plan, and most likely investment plan for oil and gas development and construction are set, and the operating costs and other investment parameters during oil and gas development are added. Among them, the operating cost can be the cost incurred for operating, maintaining, and operating related facilities during the development of the target oil and gas block; other investment parameters can be the resource management cost during the development of the target oil and gas block.

[0034] Optionally, the output evaluation parameters can be used to evaluate the output value of the target oil and gas block; wherein, the output evaluation parameters include exploitation evaluation parameters and resource value parameters; exploitation evaluation parameters can be evaluation index parameters when exploiting resources in the target oil and gas block; exploitation evaluation parameters can be used as an evaluation basis to simulate the resource output distribution of the output distribution function of the target oil and gas block. The exploitation evaluation parameters can include the exploration evaluation period TP, exploitation period Tc, production period Tj, production period increase δ, stable production years Tw, decline period Td and comprehensive decline rate α; resource value parameters are used to evaluate the resource value of the target oil and gas block.

[0035] Specifically, the oil and gas blocks published in the public competition announcement are taken as the target oil and gas blocks to be evaluated, and a value evaluation is performed on the target oil and gas blocks to determine the value evaluation parameters of the target oil and gas blocks.

[0036] S120, performing investment-output value assessment on the target oil and gas block according to the value assessment parameters, and determining an investment distribution function and an output distribution function of the target oil and gas block.

[0037] Optionally, investment-output simulation for the target oil and gas block may be to simulate exploration and development investment and simulate output value based on value assessment parameters of the target oil and gas block, to determine the investment of the target oil and gas block by simulating exploration and development investment through value assessment parameters, and then to determine the output of the target oil and gas block by simulating output value through value assessment parameters.

[0038] Among them, the investment distribution function can be the distribution function of the total investment of the target oil and gas block for evaluation; the output distribution function can be the distribution function of the total output of the target oil and gas block for evaluation. Optionally, in an embodiment of the present invention, the investment distribution function and the output distribution function are probability distribution functions for value assessment. In the investment distribution function, a statistical interval is established based on the maximum and minimum values ​​of the total investment, and the probability of the total investment sample in each interval is statistically calculated to obtain the distribution function of the total investment. Similarly, in the output distribution function, a statistical interval is established based on the maximum and minimum values ​​of the total output, and the probability of the total output sample in each interval is statistically calculated to obtain the distribution function of the total output. Among them, when establishing the statistical interval, in addition to referring to different maximum and minimum values, the most likely value can also be referred to, thereby establishing the distribution function of the total investment and total output.

[0039] Optionally, when performing probability distribution calculations, when establishing statistical intervals through the maximum and minimum values ​​of the total investment, a uniform distribution function can be selected for probability distribution calculations; when establishing statistical intervals through the maximum, most likely, and minimum values ​​of the total investment, a triangular distribution function can be used for probability distribution calculations; on the basis that the total investment obeys a normal distribution, a normal distribution can be used for probability distribution calculations, and further, on the basis that the total investment obeys a normal distribution, a logarithmic normal distribution model can be directly used to establish a distribution function of the total investment. Exemplarily, when selecting a uniform distribution function to perform probability distribution calculations on the total investment, the minimum value is determined to be a, the maximum value is determined to be b, the total investment is determined to be x, and F(x) is the distribution function of the total investment as shown below:

[0040]

[0041] When the triangular distribution function is used to calculate the probability distribution of the total investment, the minimum value is determined to be a, the maximum value is b, the most likely value is c, the total investment is x, and F(x) is the distribution function of the total investment as shown below:

[0042]

[0043] When the normal distribution function is used to calculate the probability distribution of total investment, the total investment follows the normal distribution, the expected value of the total investment is μ, the standard deviation is σ, the total investment is x, and F(x) is the distribution function of the total investment as shown below:

[0044]

[0045] When the log-normal distribution function is used to calculate the probability distribution of total investment, the total investment follows the normal distribution, the expected value of the total investment is μ, the standard deviation is σ, the total investment is x, and F(x) is the distribution function of the total investment as shown below:

[0046]

[0047] Specifically, exploration and development simulation is carried out based on the value assessment parameters of the target oil and gas blocks. By simulating the investment value assessment of the exploration and development target oil and gas blocks, the investment distribution function of the exploration and development target oil and gas blocks is determined; by simulating the output value assessment of the output of the target oil and gas blocks, the output distribution function of the target oil and gas blocks is determined.

[0048] S130. Performing Monte Carlo simulation according to the investment distribution function and the output distribution function based on three preset Monte Carlo simulation methods to determine the target bidding price of the target oil and gas block.

[0049] Optionally, the Monte Carlo simulation method may be a probability statistical model that simulates a specific object through a sampling sequence of random variables with different distributions. The Monte Carlo simulation method can be used to obtain an asymptotic valuation of the specific object.

[0050] Optionally, in another optional embodiment of the present invention, the three Monte Carlo simulation methods based on the preset method perform Monte Carlo simulation according to the investment distribution function and the output distribution function to determine the target bidding price of the target oil and gas block, including: based on the preset internal rate of return Monte Carlo simulation method, performing Monte Carlo simulation according to the investment distribution function and the output distribution function to determine the internal rate of return distribution function; based on the preset net present value Monte Carlo simulation method, performing Monte Carlo simulation according to the investment distribution function and the output distribution function to determine the net present value distribution function; based on the preset payback period Monte Carlo simulation method, performing Monte Carlo simulation according to the investment distribution function and the output distribution function to determine the dynamic payback period distribution function; performing expected return simulation according to the internal rate of return distribution function, the net present value distribution function and the dynamic payback period distribution function to determine the target bidding price of the target oil and gas block.

[0051] The preset internal rate of return Monte Carlo simulation method may be a Monte Carlo simulation method pre-set for calculating the internal rate of return.

[0052] Optionally, the internal rate of return can be the discount rate when the cumulative net income flow of the target oil and gas block in each year during the life cycle of the prospecting right and mining right is equal to 0; by comparing the internal rate of return distribution function with the discount rate expected by the enterprise itself, the economic and value of the target oil and gas block can be effectively determined. When the internal rate of return is greater than the discount rate expected by the enterprise itself, the target oil and gas block is considered to be developable. Among them, the internal rate of return can be obtained by Monte Carlo simulation through the preset internal rate of return Monte Carlo simulation method to obtain the internal rate of return distribution function, and then determine the internal rate of return.

[0053] Exemplarily, the preset internal rate of return Monte Carlo simulation method can be used to perform Monte Carlo simulation using the trial and error method. The calculation formula of the preset internal rate of return Monte Carlo simulation method is as follows:

[0054]

[0055] Among them, n is the assessment period of the target oil and gas block; t is the tth year in the assessment period; CI is the net profit inflow of the enterprise in the tth year; CO is the net profit outflow of the enterprise in the tth year; IRR is the internal rate of return.

[0056] Furthermore, when conducting a probability simulation of the internal rate of return, the 10,000 internal rate of return values ​​obtained by the internal rate of return Monte Carlo simulation method can be used to obtain the statistical step increment by subtracting the maximum value from the minimum value and dividing it by 100. Then, the 10,000 simulation values ​​can be divided into 100 statistical intervals from the smallest to the largest according to the step increment, and the frequency of the internal rate of return in each interval and the cumulative frequency of the 100 intervals from the smallest to the largest can be counted respectively. Finally, a curve is drawn with the internal rate of return as the horizontal axis and the cumulative frequency as the vertical axis, thus obtaining the internal rate of return distribution function.

[0057] Optionally, the preset net present value Monte Carlo simulation method can be a Monte Carlo simulation method pre-set to simulate the net present value of the target oil and gas block. Optionally, the net present value can be the expected discount rate set by the enterprise in the exploration and development of the target oil and gas block, and the net profit flow of each year during the exploration and development cycle of the target oil and gas block is discounted to the sum of the present values ​​of the target oil and gas block acquisition period. The net present value can be used as a dynamic evaluation indicator of profitability during the exploration and development of the target oil and gas block. When the net present value is greater than 0, it indicates that the target oil and gas block has development value. Exemplarily, the preset net present value Monte Carlo simulation method can be used to set the discount rate i c To perform simulation, the calculation method of the preset net present value Monte Carlo simulation method is as follows:

[0058]

[0059] Among them, NPV is the net present value; n is the assessment period of the target oil and gas block; t is the tth year in the assessment period; CI is the net profit inflow of the enterprise in the tth year; CO is the net profit outflow of the enterprise in the tth year.

[0060] Furthermore, when conducting a probability simulation of the net present value, the 10,000 net present value values ​​obtained by the net present value Monte Carlo simulation method can be used to obtain the statistical step increment by subtracting the maximum value from the minimum value and dividing it by 100. Then, the 10,000 simulated values ​​can be divided into 100 statistical intervals from the smallest to the largest according to the step increment, and the frequency of the net present value in each interval and the cumulative frequency of the 100 intervals from the smallest to the largest are counted respectively. Finally, a curve is drawn with the net present value as the horizontal axis and the cumulative frequency as the vertical axis to obtain the net present value distribution function.

[0061] Optionally, the preset payback period Monte Carlo simulation method may be a Monte Carlo simulation method pre-set to simulate the payback period of the target oil and gas block. Optionally, the payback period may be the time required for the net income obtained from the exploitation of the target oil and gas block to offset the investment spent on exploring and developing the target oil and gas block. When calculating the payback period, it is necessary to consider the time value and adopt a dynamic payback period Pt'. After obtaining the dynamic payback period, the target oil and gas block is compared with a preset benchmark payback period Pc. If the payback period is less than the benchmark payback period, it indicates that the target oil and gas block has development value. Exemplarily, the preset payback period Monte Carlo simulation method can be simulated according to the dynamic payback period Pt'. The calculation method of the preset payback period Monte Carlo simulation method is as follows:

[0062]

[0063] Among them, Pt' is the dynamic investment payback period; n is the assessment period of the target oil and gas block; t is the tth year in the assessment period; CI is the net profit inflow of the enterprise in the tth year; CO is the net profit outflow of the enterprise in the tth year.

[0064] Furthermore, when conducting a probability simulation of the dynamic investment payback period, the 10,000 dynamic investment payback period values ​​obtained by the dynamic investment payback period Monte Carlo simulation method can be used, and the statistical step increment can be obtained by subtracting the maximum value from the minimum value and dividing it by 100. Then, the 10,000 simulation values ​​can be divided into 100 statistical intervals from the smallest to the largest according to the step increment, and the frequency of the dynamic investment payback period in each interval and the cumulative frequency of the 100 intervals from the smallest to the largest are counted respectively. Finally, a curve is drawn with the dynamic investment payback period as the horizontal axis and the cumulative frequency as the vertical axis, so as to obtain the dynamic investment payback period distribution function.

[0065] In an embodiment of the present invention, a Monte Carlo simulation is performed based on an investment distribution function and an output distribution function based on a preset internal rate of return Monte Carlo simulation method to determine an internal rate of return distribution function; a Monte Carlo simulation is performed based on an investment distribution function and an output distribution function based on a preset net present value Monte Carlo simulation method to determine a net present value distribution function; a Monte Carlo simulation is performed based on an investment distribution function and an output distribution function based on a preset payback period Monte Carlo simulation method to determine a dynamic payback period distribution function; after obtaining the internal rate of return distribution function, the net present value distribution function and the dynamic payback period distribution function, an expected return simulation is performed for a target oil and gas block to determine the value evaluation of the prospecting right of the target oil and gas block under competitive costs, the expected return of the target oil and gas block under different competitive costs is evaluated and simulated, at least one competitive cost whose expected return is greater than a preset return threshold is selected, a risk analysis is performed based on the risk corresponding to the at least one selected competitive cost, and the competitive cost with the lowest risk is selected as the target competitive cost.

[0066] Optionally, in another optional embodiment of the present invention, when simulating the expected return of a target oil and gas block, any two distribution functions can be selected from the internal rate of return distribution function, the net present value distribution function and the dynamic payback period distribution function to simulate the expected return of the target oil and gas block. In the case where the prospecting right of the target oil and gas block lasts for a long time, there is no need to consider the dynamic payback period. It is only necessary to use the internal rate of return distribution function and the net present value distribution function to obtain the maximum return under long-term mining conditions, and then select the least risky competitive cost as the target competitive cost.

[0067] Optionally, in an embodiment of the present invention, after obtaining the internal rate of return distribution function, the net present value distribution function and the dynamic payback period distribution function, the internal rate of return distribution function, the net present value distribution function and the dynamic payback period distribution function are output. Usually, the internal rate of return distribution function, the net present value distribution function and the dynamic payback period distribution function are output in the form of the horizontal axis being any one of the internal rate of return distribution function, the net present value distribution function and the dynamic payback period distribution function, and the vertical axis being the cumulative frequency. Exemplary, Figure 2 An evaluation coordinate diagram of an internal rate of return distribution function provided by an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 2 As shown, the net present value is preset to be 0 and the dynamic investment payback period is preset to be 12 years as simulation parameters, and the probabilities of internal rate of return of 8%, 13.4% and 30% are marked in the figure respectively.

[0068] The technical solution of the embodiment of the present invention obtains the value assessment parameters of the target oil and gas block to be assessed, takes the value assessment parameters of the target oil and gas block as the basis for assessment, and improves the accuracy of assessment; performs investment-output value assessment on the target oil and gas block according to the value assessment parameters, determines the investment distribution function and output distribution function of the target oil and gas block, performs investment-output assessment on the target oil and gas block through the value assessment parameters, obtains the investment-output situation of the target oil and gas block, comprehensively considers the value information of the target oil and gas block, and improves the accuracy of value assessment on the target oil and gas block; performs Monte Carlo simulation based on the investment distribution function and the output distribution function based on the three preset Monte Carlo simulation methods, determines the target auction price of the target oil and gas block, simulates the target oil and gas block through the three Monte Carlo simulation methods, and comprehensively and accurately determines the effective target auction price. The technical problem that the oil and gas prospecting rights cannot be accurately assessed in the prior art is solved, and the accurate and comprehensive simulation of the oil and gas prospecting rights value of the target oil and gas block is realized. In the evaluation process, exploration risks are combined to provide an effective decision-making basis for the competition of oil and gas prospecting rights.

[0069] Embodiment 2

[0070] Figure 3 This is a flow chart of another method for evaluating the value of prospecting rights provided by the second embodiment of the present invention. The relationship between this embodiment and the above embodiment is a specific method for evaluating the investment output value of the target oil and gas block through the value evaluation parameters. Figure 3 As shown in the figure, the method for evaluating the value of prospecting rights includes:

[0071] S310, obtaining value assessment parameters of the target oil and gas block to be assessed.

[0072] S320: Conduct probability distribution simulation on the recoverable resources of the target oil and gas block according to the geological resource evaluation parameters to determine the distribution function of recoverable valuable resources.

[0073] Among them, the exploitable valuable resource distribution function can be a function that describes the probability distribution of the exploitable valuable resources of the target oil and gas block. Optionally, in an embodiment of the present invention, the exploration and development of the target oil and gas block is often affected by objective factors, such as geological conditions, mining technology, equipment conditions, and personnel factors. Therefore, when evaluating the value of the target oil and gas block, it is necessary to determine the exploitable valuable resources of the target oil and gas block. When determining the exploitable valuable resources of the target oil and gas block, the probability distribution simulation of the exploitable valuable resources of the target oil and gas block can be performed; when the statistical interval is established by the maximum and minimum values ​​of the exploitable valuable resources, the uniform distribution function can be selected for probability distribution calculation; when the statistical interval is established by the maximum value, most likely value and minimum value of the exploitable valuable resources, the triangular distribution function can be used for probability distribution calculation; when the exploitable valuable resources obey the normal distribution, the normal distribution can be used for probability distribution calculation; further, when the exploitable valuable resources obey the normal distribution, the logarithmic normal distribution model is directly used to establish the distribution function of the exploitable valuable resources.

[0074] Optionally, in another optional embodiment of the present invention, the probability distribution simulation of the recoverable resources of the target oil and gas block is performed according to the value assessment parameters to determine the recoverable valuable resource distribution function, including: performing a geological resource evaluation simulation on the target oil and gas block according to the geological resource information to determine the geological resource probability distribution function; performing a recoverable resource conversion coefficient simulation on the target oil and gas block according to the recoverable resource conversion coefficient to determine the resource conversion coefficient probability distribution function; and determining the recoverable valuable resource distribution function by probability multiplying the geological resource probability distribution function and the resource conversion coefficient probability distribution function through the Monte Carlo simulation.

[0075] Among them, the probability distribution function of geological resources can be a probability distribution function of the amount of resources contained in the target oil and gas block. Optionally, the amount of geological resources can be the amount of oil and gas resources estimated based on the exploration results of the target oil and gas block. Since the estimated amount of geological resources is usually within a certain numerical range, the amount of geological resources can be accurately estimated through probability distribution. Specifically, when a statistical interval is established through the maximum and minimum values ​​of the amount of geological resources, a uniform distribution function can be selected for probability distribution calculation; when a statistical interval is established through the maximum, most likely and minimum values ​​of the amount of geological resources, a triangular distribution function can be used for probability distribution calculation; when the amount of geological resources obeys a normal distribution, a normal distribution can be used for probability distribution calculation; further, when the amount of geological resources obeys a normal distribution, a logarithmic normal distribution model is directly used to establish the distribution function of the amount of geological resources.

[0076] Among them, the probability distribution function of the resource conversion coefficient can be a probability distribution function of the amount of resources contained in the target oil and gas block. Optionally, the recoverable resource conversion coefficient can be the ratio of the recoverable resource amount to the geological resource amount. The recoverable resource conversion coefficient is affected by multiple factors such as geological conditions, reservoir conditions and mining conditions. The recoverable resource conversion coefficients in different regions are not the same. Since the resource conversion coefficient is usually within a certain numerical range, the resource conversion coefficient can be accurately estimated by probability distribution. Specifically, when a statistical interval is established by the maximum and minimum values ​​of the resource conversion coefficient, a uniform distribution function can be selected for probability distribution calculation; when a statistical interval is established by the maximum, most likely and minimum values ​​of the resource conversion coefficient, a triangular distribution function can be used for probability distribution calculation; when the resource conversion coefficient obeys the normal distribution, the normal distribution can be used for probability distribution calculation; further, when the resource conversion coefficient obeys the normal distribution, the logarithmic normal distribution model is directly used to establish the distribution function of the resource conversion coefficient.

[0077] Specifically, based on the exploration information of the target oil and gas block, the geological resource evaluation simulation of the target oil and gas block is carried out through the geological resource information to determine the geological resource probability distribution function of the target oil and gas block; at the same time, based on the exploration information and mining conditions of the target oil and gas block, the recoverable resource conversion coefficient of the target oil and gas block is simulated to determine the resource conversion coefficient probability distribution function of the target oil and gas block, and then the Monte Carlo simulation is used to multiply the geological resource probability distribution function and the resource conversion coefficient probability distribution function to determine the exploitable value resource distribution function of the target oil and gas block.

[0078] S330, performing investment distribution simulation according to the investment evaluation parameters to determine the investment distribution function; performing resource output distribution simulation according to the exploitable valuable resource distribution function and the output evaluation parameters to determine the output distribution function.

[0079] Optionally, during the exploration and development of the target oil and gas block, the resource output changes continuously with the oil and gas development process. Usually, from the beginning of exploitation to exhaustion of the target oil and gas block, the resource output will rise to a stable resource output, and finally gradually decrease from a stable resource output to exhaustion. Resource output distribution simulation can simulate the distribution of resource output that changes with the change process of resource output of the target oil and gas block; resource output distribution simulation can effectively determine the resource output of the target oil and gas block.

[0080] Among them, the investment distribution simulation can be a simulation method for the total investment in the exploration and development process of the target oil and gas block. Optionally, in another alternative embodiment of the present invention, the investment distribution simulation is performed according to the investment evaluation parameters to determine the investment distribution function, including: performing exploration investment simulation on the target oil and gas block according to the exploration investment parameters to determine the exploration investment probability distribution function; performing development investment simulation on the target oil and gas block according to the development investment parameters to determine the development investment probability distribution function; and determining the investment distribution function according to the exploration investment probability distribution function and the development investment probability distribution function.

[0081] Optionally, during the investment in the exploration and development of the target oil and gas block, the total investment may include the exploration investment and the development investment in the target oil and gas block. The exploration investment may be for geological surveys that must be carried out for the exploration of the target oil and gas block to determine the proven reserves. When determining the exploration investment, the exploration work is determined according to the exploration investment parameters, and then the exploration investment input is determined. When establishing a statistical interval through the maximum and minimum values of the exploration investment, a uniform distribution function can be selected for probability distribution calculation; when establishing a statistical interval through the maximum value, the most likely value, and the minimum value of the exploration investment, a triangular distribution function can be used for probability distribution calculation; when the exploration investment follows a normal distribution, a normal distribution can be used for probability distribution calculation; further, when the exploration investment follows a normal distribution, a logarithmic normal distribution model is directly used to establish the distribution function of the exploration investment, and the distribution function of the exploration investment is determined as the exploration investment probability distribution function.

[0082] Optionally, when the target oil and gas block is in production, it is also necessary to carry out oil and gas production capacity construction on the target oil and gas block through development investment. The development investment includes all capital expenditures incurred in the processes such as oil and gas production capacity construction, oil and gas field adjustment, and technical transformation. There are mainly various engineering investments such as development wells, surface engineering, supporting engineering, and downstream engineering, as well as operating costs and other investment parameters attached to the oil and gas development process. When selecting the development plan for the target oil and gas block, the development investment in the target oil and gas block is then determined. When establishing a statistical interval through the maximum and minimum values of the development investment, a uniform distribution function can be selected for probability distribution calculation; when establishing a statistical interval through the maximum value, the most likely value, and the minimum value of the development investment, a triangular distribution function can be used for probability distribution calculation; when the development investment follows a normal distribution, a normal distribution can be used for probability distribution calculation; further, when the development investment follows a normal distribution, a logarithmic normal distribution model is directly used to establish the distribution function of the development investment, and the distribution function of the development investment is determined as the development investment probability distribution function.

[0083] Optionally, when developing a target oil and gas block, the investment part for developing the target oil and gas block includes exploration investment and development investment. The exploration investment simulation is performed on the target oil and gas block through the exploration investment parameters to determine the exploration investment probability distribution function. The development investment simulation is performed on the target oil and gas block through the development investment parameters to determine the development investment probability distribution function. The investment distribution function is determined based on the exploration probability distribution function and the development investment probability distribution function.

[0084] Specifically, an investment distribution simulation is performed based on the value assessment parameters to determine the investment distribution function; and a resource output distribution simulation is performed based on the exploitable value resource distribution function to determine the output distribution function.

[0085] Optionally, in another optional embodiment of the present invention, the performing resource output distribution simulation according to the exploitable valuable resource distribution function and the output evaluation parameter to determine the output distribution function includes:

[0086] A production distribution calculation method for the target oil and gas block is obtained; wherein the production distribution calculation method includes a production calculation method for the stable production period, a production calculation method for the construction period, and a production calculation method for the decline period; through the production distribution calculation method, a resource production distribution simulation is performed according to the output evaluation parameters and the distribution function of the exploitable valuable resources to determine the output distribution function.

[0087] Optionally, in an embodiment of the present invention, during the development and production stage of the target oil and gas block, the resource output of the target oil and gas block gradually increases, and the stage in which the resource output of the target oil and gas block gradually increases is determined as the production construction period, the resource output produced during the production construction period is the production construction period output, and the production construction period output calculation method is used to simulate and calculate the resource output during the production construction period; when the resource output of the target oil and gas block enters a stable stage, the current stage is the stable production period of the target oil and gas block, the resource output produced during the stable production period is the stable production period output, and the stable production period output calculation method is used to simulate and calculate the resource output during the stable production period; when the resource output of the target oil and gas block enters a decay and decreases to a depletion stage, the current stage is the decline period of the target oil and gas block, the resource output produced during the decline period is the decline period output, and the decline period output calculation method is used to simulate and calculate the resource output during the decline period.

[0088] Specifically, a production distribution calculation method for the target oil and gas block is obtained, and a resource production distribution simulation is performed based on the output evaluation parameters and the distribution function of the exploitable valuable resources through the production distribution calculation method to determine the output distribution function.

[0089] Optionally, in another optional embodiment of the present invention, the output distribution function is determined by simulating the resource output distribution according to the output evaluation parameters and the exploitable valuable resource distribution function through the output distribution calculation method, including: simulating the resource output distribution according to the exploitation evaluation parameters and the exploitable valuable resource distribution function through the stable production period output calculation method to determine the stable production period output distribution function; simulating the resource output distribution according to the exploitation evaluation parameters and the exploitable valuable resource distribution function through the production construction period output calculation method to determine the production construction period output distribution function; simulating the resource output distribution according to the exploitation evaluation parameters and the exploitable valuable resource distribution function through the decline period output calculation method to determine the decline period output distribution function; determining the output distribution function based on the stable production period output distribution function, the production construction period output distribution function and the decline period output distribution function.

[0090] Optionally, the production distribution function during the construction period can be a distribution function that describes the resource production of the target oil and gas block during the construction period. The production distribution simulation is performed according to the production evaluation parameters and the distribution function of the exploitable valuable resources by using the production calculation method during the construction period to determine the production distribution function of the target oil and gas block during the construction period. For example, Q is set ji is the resource output in the i-th year of the production period, then Q j(Tj) =Q w , where Q w To increase production during the construction period to reach the resource output during the stable production period, it can be used as the resource output of the target oil and gas block during the stable production period. The calculation formula for the production calculation method during the construction period is as follows:

[0091] Q ji =Q j(i+1) / δ

[0092] Optionally, the stable production period production distribution function may be a distribution function that describes the resource production of the target oil and gas block during the stable production period. The stable production period production distribution function of the target oil and gas block during the stable production period is determined by performing a resource production distribution simulation based on the mining evaluation parameters and the mining value resource distribution function through the stable production period production calculation method. For example, Q is set i is the amount of valuable resources that can be mined, Q w The resource output during the stable production period is calculated using the following formula:

[0093]

[0094] Optionally, the decline period production distribution function may be a distribution function that describes the resource production of the target oil and gas block in the decline period. The decline period production distribution function of the target oil and gas block in the decline period is determined by performing a resource production distribution simulation based on the mining evaluation parameters and the mining value resource distribution function through the decline period production calculation method. di is the resource output in the i-th year of the decline period, where Q j0 =Q w , the calculation formula for the decline period output calculation method is as follows:

[0095]

[0096] Specifically, after obtaining the production distribution function of the stable production period, the production distribution function of the production construction period and the production distribution function of the decline period through calculation and simulation, the output distribution function of the stable production period, the production distribution function of the production construction period, the production distribution function of the decline period and the resource value parameters are used to determine the output distribution function of the target oil and gas block throughout the production cycle.

[0097] S340. Perform Monte Carlo simulation according to the investment distribution function and the output distribution function based on three preset Monte Carlo simulation methods to determine the target bidding price of the target oil and gas block.

[0098] The technical solution of the embodiment of the present invention obtains the value assessment parameters of the target oil and gas block to be assessed, takes the value assessment parameters of the target oil and gas block as the basis for assessment, and improves the accuracy of assessment; performs investment distribution simulation according to the value assessment parameters to determine the investment distribution function; performs resource output distribution simulation according to the exploitable value resource distribution function to determine the output distribution function, performs investment distribution simulation on the target oil and gas block through the value assessment parameters to determine the exploration and development investment, determines the resource output based on the resource output distribution simulation, and then determines the output distribution function, comprehensively considers the value information of the target oil and gas block, and improves the accuracy of value assessment of the target oil and gas block; performs Monte Carlo simulation according to the investment distribution function and the output distribution function based on three preset Monte Carlo simulation methods to determine the target auction price of the target oil and gas block, simulates the target oil and gas block through three Monte Carlo simulation methods, and comprehensively and accurately determines the effective target auction price. It solves the technical problem that the existing technology cannot accurately evaluate the value of oil and gas prospecting rights, realizes the accurate and comprehensive simulation of the value of oil and gas prospecting rights of the target oil and gas blocks, combines exploration risks in the evaluation process, and provides an effective decision-making basis for the competition of oil and gas prospecting rights.

[0099] Optionally, an embodiment of the present invention discloses another method for evaluating the value of prospecting rights, the method comprising:

[0100] S1. Collect the basic information of the target oil and gas block. Obtain the value evaluation parameters of the target oil and gas block. The value evaluation parameters can be the geological information and oil and gas information obtained by drilling the target oil and gas block.

[0101] S2. Determine the evaluation parameter distribution function. Step 1: Determine the exploitable value resource distribution function of the target oil and gas block. Based on the value evaluation parameters, conduct a geological resource volume evaluation simulation on the target oil and gas block to determine the geological resource probability distribution function, conduct a recoverable resource conversion coefficient simulation on the target oil and gas block to determine the resource conversion coefficient probability distribution function, and then determine the exploitable value resource distribution function.

[0102] Step 2: Determine the investment distribution function for exploring and developing the target oil and gas block. According to the probability distribution of the exploitable resource production in the exploitable value resource distribution function, determine the exploration investment probability distribution function; conduct a development investment simulation on the target oil and gas block based on the value evaluation parameters to determine the development investment probability distribution function; and calculate the fixed investment cost of the target oil and gas block. Determine the investment distribution function based on the fixed investment cost, the exploration investment probability distribution function, and the development investment probability distribution function. Optionally, for the investment distribution function, the probability distribution function of the exploration and development investment can be calculated, and the fixed investment cost can be set as a fixed parameter to participate in the development investment.

[0103] Step 3: Determine the output distribution function for the resource production. Obtain the production evaluation parameters of the target oil and gas block and the production distribution calculation method; among them, the production distribution calculation method includes the stable production period production calculation method, the construction period production calculation method, and the decline period production calculation method; conduct a resource production distribution simulation based on the production evaluation parameters and the exploitable value resource distribution function through the production distribution calculation method to determine the output distribution function.

[0104] S3. Simulate the value evaluation index and output the result. For the investment distribution function and the output distribution function of the target block, randomly extract 10,000 times for each parameter of the investment distribution function and the output distribution function, conduct Monte Carlo simulation based on the investment distribution function and the output distribution function according to three preset Monte Carlo simulation methods, simulate to obtain 10,000 internal rate of return distribution functions, net present value distribution functions, and dynamic investment payback period distribution functions. Set the competition cost and the preset revenue index of the target oil and gas block, conduct an expected revenue simulation on the target oil and gas block, judge the value evaluation of the prospecting right of the target oil and gas block under the competition cost, and determine the target competition cost. Exemplarily, the preset revenue index includes an internal rate of return greater than or equal to 8%, a net present value greater than zero, and a dynamic investment payback period of 12 years.

[0105] The technical solution of the embodiment of the present invention solves the technical problem that the prior art cannot accurately evaluate the value of oil and gas prospecting rights, realizes accurate and comprehensive simulation of the value of oil and gas prospecting rights of target oil and gas blocks, combines exploration risks in the evaluation process, and provides effective decision-making basis for competition in oil and gas prospecting rights.

[0106] Embodiment 3

[0107] Figure 4 Schematic diagram of the structure of a prospecting right value assessment device provided by the third embodiment of the present invention. Figure 4 As shown, the device includes: a geological information collection module 410, a value simulation module 420 and a value assessment module 430, wherein:

[0108] A geological information collection module is used to obtain the value assessment parameters of the target oil and gas blocks to be assessed;

[0109] A value simulation module, used to perform investment-output value evaluation on the target oil and gas block according to the value evaluation parameters, and determine the investment distribution function and output distribution function of the target oil and gas block;

[0110] The value assessment module is used to perform Monte Carlo simulation according to the investment distribution function and the output distribution function based on three preset Monte Carlo simulation methods to determine the target bidding price of the target oil and gas block.

[0111] The technical solution of the embodiment of the present invention obtains the value assessment parameters of the target oil and gas block to be assessed, takes the value assessment parameters of the target oil and gas block as the basis for assessment, and improves the accuracy of assessment; performs investment-output value assessment on the target oil and gas block according to the value assessment parameters, determines the investment distribution function and output distribution function of the target oil and gas block, performs investment-output assessment on the target oil and gas block through the value assessment parameters, obtains the investment-output situation of the target oil and gas block, comprehensively considers the value information of the target oil and gas block, and improves the accuracy of value assessment on the target oil and gas block; performs Monte Carlo simulation based on the investment distribution function and the output distribution function based on the three preset Monte Carlo simulation methods, determines the target bidding price of the target oil and gas block, simulates the target oil and gas block through the three Monte Carlo simulation methods, and comprehensively and accurately determines the effective target bidding price. The technical problem that the oil and gas prospecting rights cannot be accurately assessed in the prior art is solved, and the accurate and comprehensive simulation of the oil and gas prospecting rights value of the target oil and gas block is realized. In the evaluation process, exploration risks are combined to provide an effective decision-making basis for the competition of oil and gas prospecting rights.

[0112] Optionally, the value simulation module is specifically used for:

[0113] Conducting probability distribution simulation on the recoverable resources of the target oil and gas block according to the geological resource evaluation parameters to determine the distribution function of recoverable valuable resources;

[0114] Perform investment distribution simulation according to the investment evaluation parameters to determine the investment distribution function;

[0115] The resource output distribution simulation is performed according to the exploitable valuable resource distribution function and the output evaluation parameters to determine the output distribution function.

[0116] Optionally, the value simulation module is further used for:

[0117] Performing exploration investment simulation on the target oil and gas block according to the exploration investment parameters to determine an exploration investment probability distribution function;

[0118] Performing development investment simulation on the target oil and gas block according to the development investment parameters to determine a development investment probability distribution function;

[0119] The investment distribution function is determined according to the exploration investment probability distribution function and the development investment probability distribution function.

[0120] Optionally, the value simulation module is further used for:

[0121] Obtaining a production distribution calculation method for the target oil and gas block; wherein the production distribution calculation method includes a production calculation method for a stable production period, a production calculation method for a construction period, and a production calculation method for a declining period;

[0122] The output distribution calculation method is used to simulate the resource output distribution according to the output evaluation parameters and the exploitable valuable resource distribution function to determine the output distribution function.

[0123] Optionally, the value simulation module is further used for:

[0124] The output calculation method for the stable production period is used to simulate the resource output distribution according to the mining evaluation parameters and the distribution function of the exploitable valuable resources, and the output distribution function for the stable production period is determined;

[0125] The production calculation method for the production construction period is used to simulate the resource production distribution according to the mining evaluation parameters and the distribution function of the exploitable valuable resources, and the production distribution function for the production construction period is determined;

[0126] The resource production distribution simulation is performed according to the mining evaluation parameters and the exploitable valuable resource distribution function by using the decline period production calculation method to determine the decline period production distribution function;

[0127] The output distribution function is determined according to the output distribution function during the stable production period, the output distribution function during the production construction period, the output distribution function during the declining period and the resource value parameter.

[0128] Optionally, the value simulation module is further used for:

[0129] Conducting geological resource evaluation simulation on the target oil and gas block according to the geological resource information to determine the geological resource probability distribution function;

[0130] Performing a recoverable resource conversion coefficient simulation on the target oil and gas block according to the recoverable resource conversion coefficient to determine a probability distribution function of the resource conversion coefficient;

[0131] The Monte Carlo simulation is used to perform probability multiplication according to the geological resource probability distribution function and the resource conversion coefficient probability distribution function to determine the exploitable valuable resource distribution function.

[0132] Optionally, the value assessment module is specifically used for:

[0133] Performing Monte Carlo simulation based on the investment distribution function and the output distribution function based on a preset internal rate of return Monte Carlo simulation method to determine an internal rate of return distribution function;

[0134] Performing Monte Carlo simulation based on the investment distribution function and the output distribution function based on a preset net present value Monte Carlo simulation method to determine a net present value distribution function;

[0135] Performing Monte Carlo simulation based on the investment distribution function and the output distribution function based on a preset payback period Monte Carlo simulation method to determine a dynamic payback period distribution function;

[0136] The expected return simulation is performed according to the internal rate of return distribution function, the net present value distribution function and the dynamic payback period distribution function to determine the target bidding price of the target oil and gas block.

[0137] The prospecting right value assessment device provided in the embodiment of the present invention can execute the prospecting right value assessment method provided in any embodiment of the present invention, and has the corresponding functional modules and beneficial effects of the execution method.

[0138] Embodiment 4

[0139] Figure 5A schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device 10 that can be used to implement an embodiment of the present invention is shown. The electronic device is intended to represent various forms of digital computers, such as laptop computers, desktop computers, workstations, personal digital assistants, servers, blade servers, mainframe computers, and other suitable computers. The electronic device can also represent various forms of mobile devices, such as personal digital processing, cellular phones, smart phones, wearable devices (such as helmets, glasses, watches, etc.) and other similar computing devices. The components shown herein, their connections and relationships, and their functions are merely examples and are not intended to limit the implementation of the present invention described and / or required herein.

[0140] like Figure 5 As shown, the electronic device 10 includes at least one processor 11, and a memory connected to the at least one processor 11, such as a read-only memory (ROM) 12, a random access memory (RAM) 13, etc., wherein the memory stores a computer program that can be executed by at least one processor, and the processor 11 can perform various appropriate actions and processes according to the computer program stored in the read-only memory (ROM) 12 or the computer program loaded from the storage unit 18 to the random access memory (RAM) 13. In the RAM 13, various programs and data required for the operation of the electronic device 10 can also be stored. The processor 11, the ROM 12, and the RAM 13 are connected to each other through a bus 14. An input / output (I / O) interface 15 is also connected to the bus 14.

[0141] A number of components in the electronic device 10 are connected to the I / O interface 15, including: an input unit 16, such as a keyboard, a mouse, etc.; an output unit 17, such as various types of displays, speakers, etc.; a storage unit 18, such as a disk, an optical disk, etc.; and a communication unit 19, such as a network card, a modem, a wireless communication transceiver, etc. The communication unit 19 allows the electronic device 10 to exchange information / data with other devices through a computer network such as the Internet and / or various telecommunication networks.

[0142] The processor 11 may be a variety of general and / or special processing components with processing and computing capabilities. Some examples of the processor 11 include, but are not limited to, a central processing unit (CPU), a graphics processing unit (GPU), various special artificial intelligence (AI) computing chips, various processors running machine learning model algorithms, a digital signal processor (DSP), and any appropriate processor, controller, microcontroller, etc. The processor 11 executes the various methods and processes described above, such as a prospecting right value assessment method.

[0143] In some embodiments, the prospecting right value assessment method may be implemented as a computer program, which is tangibly contained in a computer-readable storage medium, such as a storage unit 18. In some embodiments, part or all of the computer program may be loaded and / or installed on the electronic device 10 via the ROM 12 and / or the communication unit 19. When the computer program is loaded into the RAM 13 and executed by the processor 11, one or more steps of the prospecting right value assessment method described above may be performed. Alternatively, in other embodiments, the processor 11 may be configured to execute the prospecting right value assessment method in any other appropriate manner (e.g., by means of firmware).

[0144] Various implementations of the systems and techniques described above herein can be implemented in digital electronic circuit systems, integrated circuit systems, field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), application specific integrated circuits (ASICs), application specific standard products (ASSPs), systems on chips (SOCs), load programmable logic devices (CPLDs), computer hardware, firmware, software, and / or combinations thereof. These various implementations can include: being implemented in one or more computer programs that can be executed and / or interpreted on a programmable system including at least one programmable processor, which can be a special purpose or general purpose programmable processor that can receive data and instructions from a storage system, at least one input device, and at least one output device, and transmit data and instructions to the storage system, the at least one input device, and the at least one output device.

[0145] Computer programs for implementing the methods of the present invention may be written in any combination of one or more programming languages. These computer programs may be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, or other programmable data processing device, so that when the computer program is executed by the processor, the functions / operations specified in the flow chart and / or block diagram are implemented. The computer program may be executed entirely on the machine, partially on the machine, partially on the machine and partially on a remote machine as a stand-alone software package, or entirely on a remote machine or server.

[0146] In the context of the present invention, a computer-readable storage medium may be a tangible medium that may contain or store a computer program for use by or in combination with an instruction execution system, device or equipment. A computer-readable storage medium may include, but is not limited to, electronic, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor systems, devices or equipment, or any suitable combination of the foregoing. Alternatively, a computer-readable storage medium may be a machine-readable signal medium. A more specific example of a machine-readable storage medium may include an electrical connection based on one or more lines, a portable computer disk, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), an optical fiber, a portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the foregoing.

[0147] To provide interaction with a user, the systems and techniques described herein may be implemented on an electronic device having: a display device (e.g., a CRT (cathode ray tube) or LCD (liquid crystal display) monitor) for displaying information to the user; and a keyboard and a pointing device (e.g., a mouse or trackball) through which the user can provide input to the electronic device. Other types of devices may also be used to provide interaction with the user; for example, the feedback provided to the user may be any form of sensory feedback (e.g., visual feedback, auditory feedback, or tactile feedback); and input from the user may be received in any form (including acoustic input, voice input, or tactile input).

[0148] The systems and techniques described herein may be implemented in a computing system that includes backend components (e.g., as a data server), or a computing system that includes middleware components (e.g., an application server), or a computing system that includes frontend components (e.g., a user computer with a graphical user interface or a web browser through which a user can interact with implementations of the systems and techniques described herein), or a computing system that includes any combination of such backend components, middleware components, or frontend components. The components of the system may be interconnected by any form or medium of digital data communication (e.g., a communication network). Examples of communication networks include: a local area network (LAN), a wide area network (WAN), a blockchain network, and the Internet.

[0149] A computing system may include a client and a server. The client and the server are generally remote from each other and usually interact through a communication network. The client and server relationship is generated by computer programs running on the corresponding computers and having a client-server relationship with each other. The server may be a cloud server, also known as a cloud computing server or cloud host, which is a host product in the cloud computing service system to solve the defects of difficult management and weak business scalability in traditional physical hosts and VPS services.

[0150] It should be understood that the various forms of processes shown above can be used to reorder, add or delete steps. For example, the steps described in the present invention can be executed in parallel, sequentially or in different orders, as long as the desired results of the technical solution of the present invention can be achieved, and this document does not limit this.

[0151] Embodiment 5

[0152] This embodiment provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored. When the program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method for evaluating the value of prospecting rights provided in any embodiment of the present invention are implemented. The method includes:

[0153] Obtaining the value assessment parameters of the target oil and gas block to be assessed;

[0154] Performing an investment-output value assessment on the target oil and gas block according to the value assessment parameters, and determining an investment distribution function and an output distribution function of the target oil and gas block;

[0155] Based on the three preset Monte Carlo simulation methods, Monte Carlo simulation is performed according to the investment distribution function and the output distribution function to determine the target bidding price of the target oil and gas block.

[0156] The computer storage medium of the embodiment of the present invention can adopt any combination of one or more computer-readable media. The computer-readable medium can be a computer-readable signal medium or a computer-readable storage medium. The computer-readable storage medium can be, for example, but not limited to: an electrical, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor system, device or device, or any combination of the above. More specific examples (non-exhaustive list) of computer-readable storage media include: an electrical connection with one or more wires, a portable computer disk, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), an optical fiber, a portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the above. In this document, a computer-readable storage medium can be any tangible medium containing or storing a program, which can be used by an instruction execution system, device or device or used in combination with it.

[0157] Computer-readable signal media may include data signals propagated in baseband or as part of a carrier wave, which carry computer-readable program code. Such propagated data signals may take a variety of forms, including but not limited to electromagnetic signals, optical signals, or any suitable combination of the above. Computer-readable signal media may also be any computer-readable medium other than a computer-readable storage medium, which may send, propagate, or transmit a program for use by or in conjunction with an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device.

[0158] The program code embodied on the computer readable medium may be transmitted using any appropriate medium, including but not limited to wireless, wireline, optical fiber cable, RF, etc., or any suitable combination of the foregoing.

[0159] Computer program code for performing the operations of the present invention may be written in one or more programming languages ​​or a combination thereof, including object-oriented programming languages ​​such as Java, Smalltalk, C++, and conventional procedural programming languages ​​such as "C" or similar programming languages. The program code may be executed entirely on the user's computer, partially on the user's computer, as a separate software package, partially on the user's computer and partially on a remote computer, or entirely on a remote computer or server. In the case of a remote computer, the remote computer may be connected to the user's computer through any type of network, including a local area network (LAN) or a wide area network (WAN), or may be connected to an external computer (e.g., via the Internet using an Internet service provider).

[0160] It should be understood by those skilled in the art that the modules or steps of the present invention described above can be implemented by a general-purpose computing device, they can be concentrated on a single computing device, or distributed on a network composed of multiple computing devices, optionally, they can be implemented by a program code executable by a computer device, so that they can be stored in a storage device and executed by the computing device, or they can be made into individual integrated circuit modules, or multiple modules or steps therein can be made into a single integrated circuit module for implementation. Thus, the present invention is not limited to any specific combination of hardware and software.

[0161] It should be understood that the various forms of processes shown above can be used to reorder, add or delete steps. For example, the steps described in the present invention can be executed in parallel, sequentially or in different orders, as long as the desired results of the technical solution of the present invention can be achieved, and this document does not limit this.

[0162] The above specific implementations do not constitute a limitation on the protection scope of the present invention. It should be understood by those skilled in the art that various modifications, combinations, sub-combinations and substitutions can be made according to design requirements and other factors. Any modification, equivalent substitution and improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating the value of prospecting rights. It is characterized in that include: Obtaining the value assessment parameters of the target oil and gas block to be assessed; Performing an investment-output value assessment on the target oil and gas block according to the value assessment parameters, and determining an investment distribution function and an output distribution function of the target oil and gas block; Based on the three preset Monte Carlo simulation methods, Monte Carlo simulation is performed according to the investment distribution function and the output distribution function to determine the target bidding price of the target oil and gas block.

2. The method according to claim 1, Features The value assessment parameters include: geological resource assessment parameters, investment assessment parameters and output assessment parameters; the investment and output value assessment of the target oil and gas block is performed according to the value assessment parameters to determine the investment distribution function and output distribution function of the target oil and gas block, including: Conducting probability distribution simulation on the recoverable resources of the target oil and gas block according to the geological resource evaluation parameters to determine the distribution function of recoverable valuable resources; Perform investment distribution simulation according to the investment evaluation parameters to determine the investment distribution function; The resource output distribution simulation is performed according to the exploitable valuable resource distribution function and the output evaluation parameters to determine the output distribution function.

3. The method according to claim 2, Features The investment evaluation parameters include exploration investment parameters and development investment parameters; performing investment distribution simulation according to the value assessment parameters to determine the investment distribution function includes: Performing exploration investment simulation on the target oil and gas block according to the exploration investment parameters to determine an exploration investment probability distribution function; Performing development investment simulation on the target oil and gas block according to the development investment parameters to determine a development investment probability distribution function; The investment distribution function is determined according to the exploration investment probability distribution function and the development investment probability distribution function.

4. The method according to claim 2, Features , the resource output distribution simulation is performed according to the exploitable valuable resource distribution function and the output evaluation parameter to determine the output distribution function, including: Obtaining a production distribution calculation method for the target oil and gas block; wherein the production distribution calculation method includes a production calculation method for a stable production period, a production calculation method for a construction period, and a production calculation method for a declining period; The output distribution calculation method is used to simulate the resource output distribution according to the output evaluation parameters and the exploitable valuable resource distribution function to determine the output distribution function.

5. The method according to claim 4, Features The output evaluation parameters include mining evaluation parameters and resource value parameters; the output distribution calculation method performs resource output distribution simulation according to the output evaluation parameters and the exploitable value resource distribution function to determine the output distribution function, including: The output calculation method for the stable production period is used to simulate the resource output distribution according to the mining evaluation parameters and the distribution function of the exploitable valuable resources, and the output distribution function for the stable production period is determined; The production calculation method for the production construction period is used to simulate the resource production distribution according to the mining evaluation parameters and the distribution function of the exploitable valuable resources, and the production distribution function for the production construction period is determined; The resource production distribution simulation is performed according to the mining evaluation parameters and the exploitable valuable resource distribution function by using the decline period production calculation method to determine the decline period production distribution function; The output distribution function is determined according to the output distribution function during the stable production period, the output distribution function during the production construction period, the output distribution function during the declining period and the resource value parameter.

6. The method according to claim 2, Features The geological resource evaluation parameters include: geological resource information and recoverable resource conversion coefficient; the probability distribution simulation of the recoverable resource volume of the target oil and gas block is performed according to the geological resource evaluation parameters to determine the distribution function of the recoverable valuable resources, including: Conducting geological resource evaluation simulation on the target oil and gas block according to the geological resource information to determine the geological resource probability distribution function; Performing a recoverable resource conversion coefficient simulation on the target oil and gas block according to the recoverable resource conversion coefficient to determine a probability distribution function of the resource conversion coefficient; The Monte Carlo simulation is used to perform probability multiplication according to the geological resource probability distribution function and the resource conversion coefficient probability distribution function to determine the exploitable valuable resource distribution function.

7. The method according to claim 1, Features The three preset Monte Carlo simulation methods are used to perform Monte Carlo simulation according to the investment distribution function and the output distribution function to determine the target bidding price of the target oil and gas block, including: Performing Monte Carlo simulation based on the investment distribution function and the output distribution function based on a preset internal rate of return Monte Carlo simulation method to determine an internal rate of return distribution function; Performing Monte Carlo simulation based on the investment distribution function and the output distribution function based on a preset net present value Monte Carlo simulation method to determine a net present value distribution function; Performing Monte Carlo simulation based on the investment distribution function and the output distribution function based on a preset payback period Monte Carlo simulation method to determine a dynamic payback period distribution function; The expected return simulation is performed according to the internal rate of return distribution function, the net present value distribution function and the dynamic payback period distribution function to determine the target bidding price of the target oil and gas block.

8. A device for evaluating the value of prospecting rights, It is characterized in that include: An evaluation parameter collection module is used to obtain the value evaluation parameters of the target oil and gas block to be evaluated; A value simulation module, used to perform investment-output value evaluation on the target oil and gas block according to the value evaluation parameters, and determine the investment distribution function and output distribution function of the target oil and gas block; The value assessment module is used to perform Monte Carlo simulation according to the investment distribution function and the output distribution function based on three preset Monte Carlo simulation methods to determine the target bidding price of the target oil and gas block.

9. An electronic device, It is characterized in that The electronic device comprises: at least one processor; and a memory communicatively connected to the at least one processor; wherein, The memory stores a computer program executable by the at least one processor, and the computer program is executed by the at least one processor so that the at least one processor can execute the prospecting right value assessment method described in any one of claims 1-7.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, It is characterized in that The computer-readable storage medium stores computer instructions, and the computer instructions are used to enable a processor to implement the prospecting right value assessment method described in any one of claims 1-7 when executed.

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