Rapid risk assessment method for hydrogen, electricity and heat coupled comprehensive energy system

Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of comprehensive energy system optimization operation, and discloses a hydrogen-electricity-heat coupled comprehensive energy system rapid risk assessment method, which comprises the steps of determining a comprehensive energy system risk assessment index system according to engineering requirements; variable parameters in the integrated energy system operation model are determined, the variable range and dimension of the variable parameters form a parameter space of the variable parameters, the parameter space is defined as a risk space of the integrated energy system, and values of the variable parameters in the risk space form corresponding risk scenes; decomposing the risk space into a plurality of critical domains which are not overlapped with each other, and determining a linear expression between an optimal decision variable of the integrated energy system operation model and a risk scene on each critical domain; and based on the relationship between the optimal decision variable and each risk assessment index, obtaining a linear expression between each risk assessment index and the risk scene, and then performing rapid risk assessment on the integrated energy system. The risk identification efficiency in the integrated energy system can be improved, and safe and reliable operation of the integrated energy system is facilitated.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of optimal operation of integrated energy systems, and more specifically, relates to a rapid risk assessment method for a hydrogen-electricity-thermal coupled integrated energy system. Background Technique

[0002] Due to its advantages of environmental protection, high efficiency, and flexibility, the integrated energy system has become a new global energy form and trend. Among them, hydrogen energy, as a pollution-free renewable energy, is gradually playing an important role in the energy structure. Under the background of multi-disciplinary intersection, the deep coupling of hydrogen energy and electric energy is playing a significant role in multiple fields. Among them, the application of hydrogen fuel cells in cogeneration systems can significantly improve the comprehensive energy utilization efficiency and is expected to be widely used in the future.

[0003] With the continuous development of hydrogen-electricity-thermal coupled integrated energy systems, their safety and reliability have gradually become important issues that need to be solved urgently. Therefore, the risk assessment link of hydrogen-electricity-thermal coupled integrated energy systems has attracted people's attention for its important role in ensuring the safe and stable operation of integrated energy systems. By establishing a risk index evaluation system, the risk level can be judged. In the prior art, generally, the risk assessment index values of the integrated energy system optimization model under risk scenarios are solved based on traditional solvers, and it is necessary to re-model and solve for each risky scenario, resulting in a slow judgment speed of the risk scenario level, thereby increasing the operating cost of the hydrogen-electricity-thermal coupled integrated energy system and reducing the safety and reliability of the system. How to conduct a more efficient risk assessment, quickly judge the risk level of risk scenarios, and provide a scientific basis for the formulation and adoption of emergency measures is a difficult problem. Summary of the Invention

[0004] In view of the above defects or improvement requirements of the prior art, the present invention provides a rapid risk assessment method for a hydrogen-electricity-thermal coupled integrated energy system, aiming to accelerate the risk assessment speed of the integrated energy system to enhance the system's response ability to risks.

[0005] To achieve the above object, the present invention provides a rapid risk assessment method for a hydrogen-electricity-thermal coupled integrated energy system, including:

[0006] Determine the risk assessment index system of the hydrogen-electricity-thermal coupled integrated energy system according to engineering requirements;

[0007] Determine the variable parameters in the operation model of the integrated energy system; wherein, the dimension and variation range of the variable parameters form the parameter space of the variable parameters, and the parameter space is defined as the risk space of the integrated energy system, and the values of the variable parameters in the risk space constitute the corresponding risk scenarios;

[0008] Decompose the risk space into a plurality of non - overlapping critical domains, and determine the linear expression between the optimal decision variables of the integrated energy system operation model and the risk scenarios on each critical domain;

[0009] Based on the linear expression between the optimal decision variables and the risk scenarios, and the relationship between the optimal decision variables and each risk assessment index in the risk assessment index system, obtain the linear expression between each risk assessment index and the risk scenarios, and then perform a rapid risk assessment on the integrated energy system.

[0010] Further, decomposing the risk space into a plurality of non - overlapping critical domains and determining the linear expression between the optimal decision variables of the integrated energy system operation model and the risk scenarios on each critical domain includes:

[0011] First step: Randomly select a set of risk scenarios composed of the values of various variable parameters in the risk space as the initial risk scenario;

[0012] Second step: Under the current risk scenario θ0, solve the integrated energy system operation model to obtain the optimal decision variables; Based on the system constraints on the boundary and within the boundary satisfied by the optimal decision variables, obtain the critical domain expression aθ0 < b satisfied by the current risk scenario θ0, where a and b are the coefficient matrices corresponding to the linear mapping relationships between the respective parameter variables and the optimal decision variables that make up the current risk scenario θ0;

[0013] Third step: Take the region that satisfies the inequality relationship aθ < b as the critical domain A satisfied by the risk scenario θ, that is, all risk scenarios θ that satisfy aθ < b are within the same critical domain; And based on the system constraints on the boundary, obtain the linear expression between the optimal decision variables and the risk scenario θ on the critical domain A;

[0014] Fourth step: Randomly select a risk scenario outside the critical domain A in the risk space as the current risk scenario θ0, and jump to the second step until all risk scenarios in the risk space have corresponding critical domains. At this time, the risk space is decomposed into a plurality of non - overlapping critical domains, and the linear expression between the optimal decision variables and the risk scenarios on each critical domain is obtained.

[0015] Further, obtaining the critical domain expression aθ0 < b satisfied by the current risk scenario θ0 based on the system constraints on the boundary and within the boundary satisfied by the optimal decision variables includes:

[0016] The system constraints M'x satisfied by the optimal decision variables on the boundary *= k'+N'θ0 is substituted into the system constraint M”x within the boundary * <k”+N”θ0, and the critical domain expression aθ0<b satisfied by the current risk scenario θ0 is obtained; where a = M”M' -1 N'-N”, b = k”-M”M' -1 k', M' and M” are respectively the coefficient matrices corresponding to the decision variable x when taking the optimal solution, k' and k” are respectively the constant coefficient matrices in the constraints, N' and N” are respectively the coefficient matrices of the respective parameter variables constituting the current risk scenario θ0, and M' * represents the inverse matrix of M'; -1

[0017] The linear expression x(θ) between the optimal decision variable and the risk scenario θ on the critical domain A is:

[0018] x(θ) = M' -1 (k'+N'θ) = m x +n x θ

[0019] where, m x = M' -1 k', n x = M' -1 N'.

[0020] Furthermore, each risk assessment index in the risk assessment index system includes the power grid load shedding risk index r ls , the power grid line heavy load risk index r hl and the comprehensive risk index r com , and the corresponding calculation formulas are:

[0021]

[0022] In the formula, p ls represents the probability of the power grid load shedding event, P d represents the power grid load, D d represents the power grid load shedding amount;

[0023]

[0024] In the formula, p hl represents the probability of the power grid line heavy load event, PL i represents the line power, PL imax represents the maximum capacity of the line power, N l represents the total number of lines; PL i exceeds 80%of PL imax represents the line power PL i exceeds the maximum capacity of the line power PL​imax 80% of

[0025] r com = w ls r ls + w hl r hl , w ls + w hl = 1

[0026] Wherein, w ls and w hl are weights.

[0027] Furthermore, the optimal decision variables include the load P of the power grid d and the line power PL i ;

[0028] Based on the linear expressions between the optimal decision variables and the risk scenarios, and the relationships between the optimal decision variables and the risk assessment indicators in the risk assessment index system, the linear expressions between the risk assessment indicators and the risk scenarios are obtained, including:

[0029] Based on the linear expression between the load P of the power grid d and the risk scenarios, and the relationship between the load P of the power grid d and the power grid load shedding risk index r ls , the linear expression between the power grid load shedding risk index r ls and the risk scenarios is obtained;

[0030] Based on the linear expression between the line power PL i and the risk scenarios, and the relationship between the line power PL i and the power grid line overload risk index r hl , the linear expression between the power grid line overload risk index r hl and the risk scenarios is obtained;

[0031] Based on the linear expression between the power grid load shedding risk index r ls and the risk scenarios, the linear expression between the power grid line overload risk index r hl and the risk scenarios, and the relationship between the comprehensive risk index r com and the power grid load shedding risk index r ls , the power grid line overload risk index r hl , the linear expression between the comprehensive risk index r com and the risk scenarios is obtained.

[0032] Furthermore, according to the linear expressions between the risk assessment indicators and the risk scenarios, a rapid risk assessment of the integrated energy system is performed, including:

[0033] Risk scenario θ * When it occurs, judge the critical domain to which it belongs to determine the risk scenario θ * The corresponding linear expression, and calculate the corresponding risk index value according to the linear expression;

[0034] It also includes: judging the risk level to which the risk scenario θ belongs according to the calculated risk index value, and then taking corresponding risk response measures; among them, the risk level is divided based on the change range of each risk assessment index in the risk assessment index system; and the risk level includes: high-risk scenario, medium-risk scenario, low-risk scenario, and risk-free scenario. *

[0035]

[0036]

[0037]

[0038] HC k Among them, is the power generation of the hydrogen fuel cell k in the hydrogen supply system at time t, HC k,t is the hydrogen consumption of the hydrogen fuel cell k at time t; η p and η h represent the power generation rate of the power supply system and the heat production efficiency of the heat supply system; HC k and are respectively the lower limit and upper limit of the hydrogen consumption of the hydrogen fuel cell k.

[0039] The present invention also provides a rapid risk assessment system for a hydrogen-electric-heat coupled integrated energy system, including a computer-readable storage medium and a processor;

[0040] The computer-readable storage medium is used to store executable instructions;

[0041] The processor is used to read the executable instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium and execute the rapid risk assessment method for the hydrogen-electric-heat coupled integrated energy system described in any one of the above.

[0042] The present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, and when the program is executed by a processor, it implements the rapid risk assessment method for the hydrogen-electric-thermal coupled integrated energy system as described in any one of the above.

[0043] The present invention also provides a computer program product, including a computer program, which when running on a computer causes the computer to execute the rapid risk assessment method for the hydrogen-electric-thermal coupled integrated energy system as described in any one of the above.

[0044] Generally speaking, through the above technical solutions conceived by the present invention, the following beneficial effects can be achieved:

[0045] (1) In the rapid risk assessment method for the hydrogen-electric-thermal coupled integrated energy system of the present invention, a risk space is constructed by considering the variation range and dimension of variable parameters, and the risk space is decomposed with critical domains as units to complete the construction of a linear expression of risk indicators with respect to risk scenarios, avoiding solving non-linear optimization problems (solving the operation model) under different risk scenarios, being able to accelerate the risk assessment speed of the integrated energy system, thereby reducing the operation cost of the hydrogen-electric-thermal coupled integrated energy system and enhancing the safety and reliability of the system.

[0046] (2) Preferably, in the rapid risk assessment method for the hydrogen-electric-thermal coupled integrated energy system of the present invention, an operation model of the integrated energy system coupling multiple energies such as hydrogen energy, electric energy, and thermal energy is constructed, and a method for constructing a risk assessment index system for the integrated energy system is provided. Considering the system load shedding risk, line overload risk, and comprehensive risk, the risks faced by the integrated energy system are evaluated, and according to the risk index values, a fine classification of the risk levels is completed. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0047] Figure 1 is a schematic flow chart of the rapid risk assessment method for the hydrogen-electric-thermal coupled integrated energy system provided in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0048] Figure 2 is a schematic diagram of the linear expression of risk indicators with respect to risk scenarios obtained in the embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EMBODIMENTS

[0049] In order to make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the present invention clearer, the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention and are not used to limit the present invention. In addition, the technical features involved in the various embodiments of the present invention described below can be combined with each other as long as they do not conflict with each other.

[0050] Embodiment 1

[0051] As Figure 1 and Figure 2 shown, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for rapid risk assessment of a hydrogen-electricity-thermal coupled integrated energy system, mainly including:

[0052] S1. According to engineering requirements, determine the risk assessment index system of an integrated energy system with multiple energy couplings of hydrogen energy, electric energy, and thermal energy.

[0053] S2. Determine the variable parameters and their dimensions in the operation model of the hydrogen-electricity-thermal coupled integrated energy system, and determine the change range of the variable parameters according to empirical values; the dimensions and change ranges of the variable parameters form the parameter space of the variable parameters, which is defined as the risk space of the integrated energy system; among them, the values of the variable parameters in the risk space constitute the corresponding risk scenarios; in the embodiment of the present invention, the variable parameters in the operation model of the integrated energy system include the input power of new energy in the electric energy system, the load of each system, etc.; the change of the variable parameters will cause the corresponding risk scenarios to appear. For example, insufficient input power of new energy will cause the risk of load shedding.

[0054] S3. Decompose the risk space into multiple non-overlapping critical domains, and determine the linear expression between the optimal decision variables (optimization results of the operation model) of the integrated energy system operation model on each critical domain and the risk scenarios composed of the variable parameters; in the embodiment of the present invention, the decision variables include not only the hydrogen production amount of the hydrogen energy system, the output of the units in the electric energy system, the heat production amount of the thermal energy system, etc., but also the optimization variables related to the risk evaluation index. For example, the optimization results also include the load shedding amount and line heavy load situation of the power grid. Based on the load shedding amount and line heavy load situation of the power grid, the corresponding load shedding risk index and line heavy load risk index can be calculated.

[0055] S4. According to the relationship between the optimal decision variables and each risk assessment index in the risk assessment index system, obtain the linear expression between each risk assessment index and the risk scenarios composed of the variable parameters, and then perform rapid risk assessment on the integrated energy system with multiple energy couplings of hydrogen energy, electric energy, and thermal energy.

[0056] As an alternative implementation, the risk assessment indexes in the risk assessment index system of the integrated energy system with multiple energy couplings of hydrogen energy, electric energy, and thermal energy include the power grid load shedding risk index, the power grid line heavy load risk index, and the comprehensive risk index; among them, the comprehensive risk index is obtained by weighting the power grid load shedding risk index and the power grid line heavy load risk index. The construction of the risk assessment index system of the integrated energy system is determined according to actual engineering requirements. In other embodiments, other risk assessment indexes can also be selected, such as pipeline flow limit risk, pipeline pressure limit risk, heating temperature deficiency risk, etc.

[0057] As an alternative implementation, according to the load shedding amount of the power grid, determine the power grid load shedding risk index r ls :

[0058]

[0059] Among them, p ls represents the probability of the power grid load shedding event, and P d represents the load of the power grid, and D d represents the power grid load shedding amount, that is, the load cut off to maintain system balance.

[0060] According to the line heavy load situation, determine the power grid line heavy load risk index r hl :

[0061]

[0062] Among them, p hl represents the probability of the power grid line heavy load event, and PL i represents the line power, and PL imax represents the maximum line power capacity, and N l represents the total number of lines; PL i exceeds 80% of PL imax represents the line power PL i exceeds 80% of the maximum line power capacity PL imax .

[0063] By weighted averaging of each risk index, obtain the comprehensive risk index r com :

[0064] r com = w ls r ls + w hl r hl , w ls + w hl = 1 (3)

[0065] Among them, w ls and w hl are weights, and are valued according to experience.

[0066] As an alternative implementation, in S1, it further includes: according to the change range of each index, divide the risk scenario levels into high-risk scenarios, medium-risk scenarios, low-risk scenarios, and risk-free scenarios; correspondingly, in S4, it further includes: according to the currently evaluated values of each risk index, determine the corresponding risk scenario level, and take corresponding risk response measures.

[0067] As an alternative implementation, in S2, the operation model of the hydrogen-electricity-thermal coupling integrated energy system includes a hydrogen supply system model, a power supply system model, and a heat supply system model; the hydrogen supply system model is established based on the Navier-Stokes equation; the power supply system model is constructed based on the DC power flow model; the heat supply system model is constructed based on the energy conservation and mass conservation equations; finally, based on the multi-energy coupling characteristics of the hydrogen fuel cell, the operation model of the integrated energy system with multiple energy couplings of hydrogen energy, electric energy, and thermal energy is constructed.

[0068] Specifically, considering that the hydrogen fuel cell consumes hydrogen while generating electricity and can recover waste heat, the construction of the hydrogen-electricity-thermal coupling integrated energy system is completed through the hydrogen fuel cell; among them, the objective function of the hydrogen-electricity-thermal coupling integrated energy system is to minimize the total operating cost of the integrated energy system:

[0069] minF=c hy +c p +c he (4)

[0070] In the formula, F represents the total operating cost of the integrated energy system; c hy represents the operating cost of the hydrogen supply system, c p represents the operating cost of the power supply system, c he represents the operating cost of the heat supply system; among them, c hy , c p , c he are respectively:

[0071]

[0072] In the formula, ρ hy is the unit price of hydrogen, HD p,t is the hydrogen consumption of hydrogen load p at time t, HC k,t is the hydrogen consumption of hydrogen fuel cell k at time t.

[0073]

[0074] Among them, P i,t is the output value of traditional unit i in the power supply system at time t, a i , b i , c i represent the coefficients of the quadratic cost function, D d,t represents the power abandonment amount of renewable energy d at time t, e d is the abandonment penalty coefficient.

[0075]

[0076] Among them, ρ H represents the unit price of the fuel used in the boiler in the heat supply system, HQ q,tRepresents the heat production of boiler q during period t, e c Represents the heat production per kg of fuel.

[0077] The operation constraints satisfied by the hydrogen-electricity-heat coupling integrated energy system include the operation constraints of the hydrogen supply system, the power supply system, the heat supply system, and the coupling constraints between the hydrogen supply system, the power supply system, and the heat supply system; among them, the operation constraints of the hydrogen supply system, the power supply system, and the heat supply system are known to those skilled in the art, and the coupling constraints between the hydrogen supply system, the power supply system, and the heat supply system include:

[0078]

[0079] Equation (8) is the power generation formula of the hydrogen fuel cell, is the power generation of hydrogen fuel cell k in the hydrogen supply system during period t, HC k,t is the hydrogen consumption of hydrogen fuel cell k during period t; Equation (9) is the heat production formula of the hydrogen fuel cell, where η p and η h represent the power generation rate of the power supply system and the heat production efficiency of the heat supply system; Equation (10) represents the upper and lower limit constraints of the hydrogen consumption of the hydrogen fuel cell, HC k and are respectively the lower limit and upper limit of the hydrogen consumption of hydrogen fuel cell k.

[0080] As an optional implementation method, in S3, it includes:

[0081] The first step is to randomly select a set of risk scenarios composed of the values of various variable parameters in the risk space as the initial risk scenario;

[0082] The second step is to solve the operation model of the hydrogen-electricity-heat coupling integrated energy system under the current risk scenario θ0 to obtain the optimization result (optimal decision variable) of the decision variable; substitute the optimization result into the system constraints M'x * = k'+N'θ0 and the system constraints M”x * < k”+N”θ0 on the boundary; where M' and M” are respectively the coefficient matrices corresponding to the decision variable x * when taking the optimal solution, k' and k” are respectively the constant coefficient matrices in the constraint conditions, and N' and N” are respectively the coefficient matrices of the parameter variables that make up the current risk scenario θ0 in the constraint conditions; substitute the system constraint M'x * = k'+N'θ0 on the boundary into the system constraint M”x * < k”+N”θ0 inside the boundary to obtain the critical domain expression satisfied by the current risk scenario θ0 (M”M' -1 N'-N”)θ0 < k”-M”M'-1 k'

[0083] Step 3: The area that satisfies the inequality (M”M' -1 N'-N”)θ<k”-M”M' -1 k' is taken as the critical domain A satisfied by the risk scenario θ composed of each variable parameter. That is, all risk scenarios θ that satisfy this inequality relationship are within the same critical domain. Among them, M' -1 represents the inverse matrix of M'; and according to the system constraint M'x * satisfied by the decision variable x * =k'+N'θ0 on the boundary, the linear expression x(θ) = M' -1 (k'+N'θ) = m x +n x θ between the optimal decision variable on the critical domain A and the risk scenario θ composed of variable parameters is obtained. Among them, m x =M' -1 k', n x =M' -1 N'.

[0084] Step 4: Randomly select a risk scenario outside the critical domain A in the risk space as the current risk scenario θ0, and jump to Step 2 until all risk scenarios in the risk space have corresponding critical domains. At this time, the risk space is decomposed into multiple non-overlapping critical domains, and the linear expressions between the optimal decision variables of the integrated energy system operation model on each critical domain and the risk scenarios composed of each variable parameter are obtained.

[0085] In the embodiment of the present invention, in Step 2, solving the operation model of the hydrogen-electricity-thermal coupling integrated energy system includes:

[0086] Taking the total operation cost of the integrated energy system as the objective function, and solving the optimal decision variables of the operation model by using an optimization algorithm under the operation constraints of the hydrogen supply system, the power supply system, the heat supply system, and the coupling constraints between the hydrogen supply system, the power supply system, and the heat supply system.

[0087] As an optional implementation manner, in S4, according to the grid load P d and the line heavy load condition (line power PL i ), as well as the grid load P d and the relationship between the line heavy load condition and the corresponding grid load shedding risk index r ls and the grid line heavy load risk index r hl , a linear expression between each risk assessment index and the risk scenario composed of each variable parameter is established.

[0088] Specifically, based on the grid load P in the optimal decision variables d , and combining the grid load P d and the grid load shedding risk index r ls relationship between, establish the grid load shedding risk index r ls for the risk scenario θ composed of various variable parameters linear expression f ls (θ):

[0089] r ls = f ls (θ) = m ls + n ls θ (11)

[0090] where n ls is the coefficient matrix of f ls (θ), m ls is a constant coefficient matrix.

[0091] According to the line overload situation in the optimal decision variables (line power PL i ), and combining the line overload situation and the grid line overload risk index r hl relationship between, establish the grid line overload risk index r hl for the risk scenario θ composed of various variable parameters linear expression f hl (θ):

[0092] r hl = f hl (θ) = m hl + n hl θ (12)

[0093] where n hl is the coefficient matrix of f hl (θ), m hl is a constant coefficient matrix.

[0094] According to the grid load shedding risk index r ls for the risk scenario θ composed of various variable parameters linear expression f ls (θ) and the grid line overload risk index r hl for the risk scenario θ composed of various variable parameters linear expression f hl (θ), and the comprehensive risk index r com is the grid load shedding risk index r ls and the grid line overload risk index r hl weighted average of, establish the comprehensive risk index r com for the risk scenario θ composed of various variable parameters linear expression f com (θ):

[0095] r com = f com (θ) = m com + n com θ (13)

[0096] where n com is the coefficient matrix of f com (θ), and m com is a constant coefficient matrix.

[0097] In the embodiments of the present invention, based on the linear expression between each constructed risk assessment index and the risk scenario composed of each variable parameter, a rapid risk assessment of the integrated energy system is performed, including:

[0098] When the risk scenario θ * occurs, judge the critical domain to which it belongs to determine the linear expression corresponding to the risk scenario θ * , and calculate the corresponding risk index value according to the linear expression. According to the interval where the risk index value is located, determine which level among the high-risk scenario, medium-risk scenario, low-risk scenario, and risk-free scenario the current risk scenario θ * belongs to; and take corresponding risk response measures according to the specific level.

[0099] Among them, the method for judging the critical domain to which the risk scenario θ * belongs is: if the current risk scenario θ * satisfies the following formula:

[0100] (M”M' -1 N'-N”) X θ * < (k”-M”M' -1 k') X , θ * ∈CR X (14)

[0101] It indicates that the risk scenario θ * is located in the Xth critical domain; if not satisfied, it is located outside this critical domain; CR X represents the Xth critical domain.

[0102] The following uses the rapid risk assessment method for the hydrogen-electric-thermal coupled integrated energy system provided in the embodiments of the present invention to test the risk assessment of a 6-node - 6-node - 8-node hydrogen-electric-thermal combined energy system. Two cases are set to illustrate the effectiveness of the present invention:

[0103] The first case: Based on a traditional solver to solve the risk assessment index value of the integrated energy system optimization model under the risk scenario.

[0104] Second scenario: According to the rapid risk assessment method of the hydrogen-electric-thermal coupled integrated energy system proposed in the embodiments of the present invention, the risk assessment index values under the same risk scenario are calculated.

[0105] The calculation results are shown in Table 1 below:

[0106] Table 1 Calculation results in two cases

[0107]

[0108] It can be seen that under a certain selected risk scenario, the values of the load shedding risk index and the line overload risk index calculated in the first scenario are 0.1786 and 0.2143 respectively, and the calculation time is 0.5110 seconds. The values of the load shedding risk index and the line overload risk index calculated in the second scenario are 0.1786 and 0.2143 respectively, and the calculation time is 0.0467 seconds. It can be seen that the risk index values obtained in the first scenario and the second scenario are the same, which proves the accuracy of the rapid risk assessment method of the hydrogen-electric-thermal coupled integrated energy system proposed in the embodiments of the present invention. Moreover, the calculation time consumed in the second scenario is shorter than that consumed in the first scenario, verifying the efficiency of the present invention in the risk assessment of the integrated energy system.

[0109] Embodiment 2

[0110] The embodiment of the present invention provides a rapid risk assessment system for a hydrogen-electric-thermal coupled integrated energy system, including a memory and a processor. The memory stores a computer program, and when the processor executes the computer program, the steps of the rapid risk assessment method of the hydrogen-electric-thermal coupled integrated energy system in Embodiment 1 above are implemented.

[0111] The related technical solutions are the same as above and will not be elaborated here.

[0112] Embodiment 3

[0113] The embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the rapid risk assessment method of the hydrogen-electric-thermal coupled integrated energy system in Embodiment 1 above are implemented.

[0114] Specifically, the memory may include a high-speed random access memory, and may also include a non-volatile memory, such as a hard disk, a memory, a plug-in hard disk, a smart media card (SMC), a secure digital (SD) card, a flash card, at least one magnetic disk storage device, a flash memory device, or other volatile solid-state storage devices.

[0115] The related technical solutions are the same as above and will not be elaborated here.

[0116] Example 4

[0117] An embodiment of the present application provides a computer program product, including a computer program, which, when running on a computer, causes the computer to execute the steps of the rapid risk assessment method for the hydrogen-electricity-thermal coupling integrated energy system in the above-mentioned Embodiment 1.

[0118] The related technical solutions are the same as above and will not be elaborated here.

[0119] Those skilled in the art can easily understand that the above are only preferred embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent replacements, and improvements made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A rapid risk assessment method for a hydrogen-electric-thermal coupled integrated energy system, characterized in that: include: Determine the risk assessment index system of the integrated energy system of hydrogen-electric-thermal coupling according to the project requirements; Determine the variable parameters in the integrated energy system operation model; wherein the dimension and variation range of the variable parameters constitute the parameter space of the variable parameters, and the parameter space is defined as the risk space of the integrated energy system, and the value of each variable parameter in the risk space constitutes a corresponding risk scenario; Decomposing the risk space into a plurality of non-overlapping critical domains, and determining a linear expression between an optimal decision variable of the integrated energy system operation model and a risk scenario on each critical domain; Based on the linear expression between the optimal decision variable and the risk scenario, and the relationship between the optimal decision variable and each risk assessment indicator in the risk assessment indicator system, the linear expression between each risk assessment indicator and the risk scenario is obtained, and then the comprehensive energy system is quickly assessed for risk.

2. The rapid risk assessment method for an integrated energy system according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Decomposing the risk space into multiple non-overlapping critical domains, and determining the linear expression between the optimal decision variables of the integrated energy system operation model and the risk scenario in each critical domain, including: The first step is to randomly select a set of risk scenarios consisting of values ​​of various variable parameters in the risk space as initial risk scenarios; Step 2: Under the current risk scenario θ0, solve the integrated energy system operation model to obtain the optimal decision variables; based on the system constraints on the boundary and the system constraints within the boundary satisfied by the optimal decision variables, obtain the critical domain expression aθ0<b satisfied by the current risk scenario θ0, where a and b are coefficient matrices corresponding to the linear mapping relationship between each parameter variable constituting the current risk scenario θ0 and the optimal decision variables; Step 3: The area satisfying the inequality relationship aθ<b is taken as the critical domain A satisfied by the risk scenario θ, that is, all the risk scenarios θ satisfying aθ<b are in the same critical domain; and according to the system constraints on the boundary, a linear expression between the optimal decision variable on the critical domain A and the risk scenario θ is obtained; In the fourth step, a risk scenario outside the critical domain A is randomly selected in the risk space as the current risk scenario θ0, and the process jumps to the second step until all risk scenarios in the risk space have corresponding critical domains. At this time, the risk space is decomposed into multiple non-overlapping critical domains, and a linear expression between the optimal decision variable and the risk scenario on each critical domain is obtained.

3. The rapid risk assessment method for an integrated energy system according to claim 2 is characterized in that: Based on the system constraints on the boundary and the system constraints within the boundary satisfied by the optimal decision variables, the critical domain expression aθ0<b satisfied by the current risk scenario θ0 is obtained, including: The system constraints M'x on the boundary satisfied by the optimal decision variables * = k' + N'θ0 Substitute the system constraints M"x within the boundary * <k”+N”θ0, the critical domain expression aθ0<b satisfied by the current risk scenario θ0 is obtained; where a=M”M' -1 N'-N", b=k"-M"M' -1 k', M' and M" are the decision variables x in the constraints. * The coefficient matrix corresponding to the optimal solution is taken, k' and k" are the constant coefficient matrices in the constraints, N' and N" are the coefficient matrices of the parameter variables that constitute the current risk scenario θ0 in the constraints, M' -1 represents the inverse matrix of M'; The linear expression x(θ) between the optimal decision variable and the risk scenario θ on the critical region A is: x(θ)=M' -1 (k'+N'θ)=m x +n x i Among them, m x =M' -1 k',n x =M' -1 N'.

4. The rapid risk assessment method for an integrated energy system according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The risk assessment index system includes the risk index of power grid load loss. ls , power grid line overload risk index r hl and the comprehensive risk index r com , the corresponding calculation formula is: In the formula, p ls represents the probability of power grid load loss event, P d Indicates the load of the power grid, D d Indicates the amount of power grid load loss; In the formula, p hl represents the probability of overload event of power grid line, PL i Indicates line power, PL imax Indicates the maximum capacity of the line power, N l Indicates the total number of lines; PL i exceeds 80% of PL imax Indicates line power PL i Exceeding the maximum line power capacity PL imax 80%; r com =w ls r ls +w hl r hl ,w ls +w hl =1 In the formula, w ls and w hl is the weight.

5. The rapid risk assessment method for an integrated energy system according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The optimal decision variables include the load P of the power grid d and the line power PL i ; Based on the linear expression between the optimal decision variable and the risk scenario, and the relationship between the optimal decision variable and each risk assessment indicator in the risk assessment indicator system, a linear expression between each risk assessment indicator and the risk scenario is obtained, including: Based on the load P of the power grid d The linear expression between the risk scenario and the load P of the power grid d and the grid load loss risk index r ls The relationship between the load loss risk index r of the power grid is obtained. ls Linear expression between risk scenarios; Based on the line power PL i The linear expression between the risk scenario and the line power PL i The risk index of overload of power lines hl The relationship between the power grid line overload risk index r is obtained. hl Linear expression between risk scenarios; Based on the grid load loss risk index r ls The linear expression between the risk scenario and the power grid line overload risk index r hl The linear expression between the risk scenario and the comprehensive risk index r com and the grid load loss risk index r ls , power grid line overload risk index r hl The relationship between the two is used to obtain the comprehensive risk index r com Linear expression between risk scenarios.

6. The method for rapid risk assessment of an integrated energy system according to claim 1, characterized in that: According to the linear expression between each risk assessment indicator and the risk scenario, a rapid risk assessment is performed on the integrated energy system, including: Risk scenarioθ * When it occurs, determine the critical domain to which it belongs to determine the risk scenario θ * A corresponding linear expression, and a corresponding risk index value is calculated according to the linear expression; It also includes: judging the risk scenario θ based on the calculated risk indicator value * The risk level to which it belongs is determined, and corresponding risk response measures are taken; wherein, the risk level is divided based on the range of changes of each risk assessment indicator in the risk assessment indicator system; and the risk levels include: high-risk scenario, medium-risk scenario, low-risk scenario, and no-risk scenario.

7. The method for rapid risk assessment of an integrated energy system according to claim 2, characterized in that: Solve the integrated energy system operation model to obtain the optimal decision variables, including: Taking minimizing the total operating cost of the integrated energy system as the objective function, the objective function is solved under the operating constraints of the hydrogen supply system, the power supply system and the heating system, and the coupling constraints among the hydrogen supply system, the power supply system and the heating system to obtain the optimal decision variables; wherein the integrated energy system is an integrated energy system coupled by the hydrogen supply system, the power supply system and the heating system; the coupling constraints are: in, is the power generation of hydrogen fuel cell k in the hydrogen supply system during period t, HC k,t is the hydrogen consumption of hydrogen fuel cell k in period t; η p With η h It indicates the power generation rate of the power supply system and the heat generation efficiency of the heating system; HC k and are the lower and upper limits of hydrogen consumption of hydrogen fuel cell k respectively.

8. A rapid risk assessment system for a hydrogen-electric-thermal coupled integrated energy system, characterized in that: comprising a computer readable storage medium and a processor; The computer-readable storage medium is used to store executable instructions; The processor is used to read the executable instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium to execute the rapid risk assessment method for the hydrogen-electric-thermal coupled integrated energy system described in any one of claims 1-7.

9. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the program is executed by a processor, the rapid risk assessment method for the hydrogen-electric-thermal coupled integrated energy system as described in any one of claims 1 to 7 is implemented.

10. A computer program product, characterized in that It includes a computer program, which, when running on a computer, enables the computer to execute the rapid risk assessment method for a hydrogen-electric-thermal coupled integrated energy system as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

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