Jinghe river basin social ecological hydrological evolution process simulation method and device

Abstract

The invention discloses a method and a device for simulating a social ecological hydrological evolution process of Jinghe watershed, and relates to the field of hydrology. The method comprises the following steps: constructing a kinetic equation between a state variable and a state variable annual growth rate, and according to a water consumption data variable related to the state variable in historical hydro meteorological data, establishing a dynamic equation between the state variable and the state variable annual growth rate; constructing a constitutive relational expression reflecting the water consumption data of each state variable, and obtaining a social ecological hydrological evolution model of the human basin from Jinghe to Jinghe; according to the three-level river network, dividing the human Jinghe river basin into six basin simulation units; and substituting the hydro-meteorological data of each drainage basin simulation unit in the future period into the model to obtain a social ecological hydrological evolution simulation value in the future period, and completing simulation. According to the method, data correlation between social resources and hydrological resources can be considered, so that a hydrological research result is more accurate.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of hydrology, and particularly to a method and device for simulating the social-ecological hydrological evolution process in the Jinghe River Basin. Background Art

[0002] The simulation study of the dynamic evolution process of the social-hydrological system has been continuously developed under the background of the increasing interference of human beings on the natural water cycle. This study regards the social driving force of the human system and the natural driving force of the hydrological system as the endogenous forces of the "human-water" coupling. Different from the traditional hydrology that regards the impact of human activities as an exogenous variable of the hydrological system, the social-ecological hydrological system focuses on the evolution of the "human-water" coupling system, which has long-term prediction ability and has important practical significance for water resources planning, medium- and long-term planning and management of water resources-related economic and social development.

[0003] In the prior art, the water resources planning work understands the water cycle process from between the natural and social systems, provides a theoretical basis for coordinating agricultural water use, domestic water use, ecological water use, tertiary industry water use, industrial water use and the rational development and utilization of water resources, but lacks the process constraint of water resources in the prediction of future social and economic processes. Social hydrology is a new science for understanding the dynamics and co-evolution of the human-water coupling system. The scientific decade plan "Panta Rhei" of the IAHS points out that the scientific research under the PantaRhei framework includes understanding, evaluating, simulating, and predicting the significant feedback between hydrology and society, but lacks specific simulation methods.

[0004] However, the above technologies do not fully consider various situations involving water resources in social resources, resulting in inaccurate hydrological research results in the dynamic evolution process of the social-hydrological system. Summary of the Invention

[0005] The embodiments of the present invention provide a method and device for simulating the social-ecological hydrological evolution process in the Jinghe River Basin, which can solve the problem in the prior art that the close interaction between social resources and water resources in the dynamic evolution process of the social-hydrological system is not fully considered, resulting in inaccurate research results.

[0006] An embodiment of the present invention provides a method for simulating the social-ecological hydrological evolution process in the Jinghe River Basin, including the following steps: obtaining the state variables and the annual growth rates of the state variables related to water resources in the social and economic data and land use data within the social resources of the Jinghe River Basin; obtaining the historical hydro-meteorological data of each hydrological station, and obtaining the hydro-meteorological data for the future period according to the comparison and evaluation of the global climate model CMIP; constructing a dynamic equation between the state variables and the annual growth rates of the state variables, and constructing a constitutive relationship reflecting the water use data of each state variable based on the water use data variables related to the state variables in the historical hydro-meteorological data, to obtain a social-ecological hydrological evolution model for the Jinghe River Basin; using a river network classification method that classifies rivers according to the number of tributaries, dividing the Jinghe River Basin according to the three-level river network classification method to obtain six basin simulation units; substituting the hydro-meteorological data for the future period of each basin simulation unit into the social-ecological hydrological evolution model to obtain the simulated values of the social-ecological hydrological evolution for the future period, and completing the simulation of the social-ecological hydrological evolution process in the Jinghe River Basin.

[0007] Further, the specific steps of constructing the dynamic equation between the state variables and the annual growth rates of the state variables include: the state variables include: total population P, industrial added value V IA , forest and grassland area A GF , cultivated land area A C , total water storage S;

[0008] The dynamic equation of the state variable of the total population P is: P t = P t-1 ×(1 + r P );

[0009] The dynamic equation of the state variable of the industrial added value V IA is: V IA,t = V IA,t-1 ×(1 + r V );

[0010] The dynamic equation of the state variable of the forest and grassland area A GF is: A GF,t = A GF,t-1 ×(1 + r GF );

[0011] The dynamic equation of the state variable of the cultivated land area A C is: A C,t = A c,t-1 ×(1 + r C );

[0012] The dynamic equation of the state variable of the total water storage S is: S t = S t-1 + P t + I t-Q t -E t -W t ;

[0013] Among them, r P represents the growth rate of the population, r V represents the growth rate of the industrial added value, r GF represents the growth rate of the forest and grassland area, r C represents the growth rate of the cultivated land area, P t represents the precipitation of the unit, I t represents the inflow of the unit, Q t represents the outflow of the unit, E t represents the evaporation of the unit, W t represents the water consumption of the unit, and the subscript t represents the t-th year.

[0014] Furthermore, the constitutive relation specifically includes:

[0015] For the evaporation E of the forest and grassland GF,t , the constitutive relation is:

[0016] E GF,t = α GF × A GF,t × E P,t

[0017] For the total inflow I t , the constitutive relation is:

[0018] I t = A IB × P RAIN,t

[0019] Among them, α GF represents the evaporation conversion coefficient of the forest and grassland, E P,t represents the annual potential evaporation, A IB represents the area of the interval, P RAIN,t represents the annual rainfall, A GF,t represents the area of the forest and grassland.

[0020] Furthermore, the six basin simulation units specifically include: in the six basin simulation units, there is no upstream river inflow in the first, third, and fifth basin simulation units; the first basin simulation unit flows into the second basin simulation unit; the second and third basin simulation units flow into the fourth basin simulation unit; the fourth and fifth basin simulation units flow into the sixth basin simulation unit.

[0021] Furthermore, each basin simulation unit includes: domestic water use, agricultural water use, ecological water use, industrial water use, and water use for the tertiary industry.

[0022] Furthermore, the social-ecological hydrological evolution model needs to input historical hydrometeorological data for simulation and verify the authenticity of the simulation values. The specific steps are as follows: Evaluate using the mean relative error. The smaller the value of the mean relative error, the smaller the gap between the prediction result and the true value; Evaluate using the Nash efficiency coefficient. When the Nash efficiency coefficient is 1, the simulation value is equal to the observed value; Evaluate using the coefficient of determination. When the coefficient of determination approaches 1, it indicates a higher reliability of the equation; Evaluate using the Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient. When the Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient approaches 1, it shows a high degree of agreement between the simulation result and the observed result.

[0023] The embodiment of the present invention provides a social-ecological hydrological evolution simulation device for a river, including: a data acquisition module, configured to acquire the state variables and the annual growth rate of the state variables related to water resources in the social and economic data and land use data within the social resources of the Jinghe River Basin; and acquire the historical hydrometeorological data of each hydrological station, and compare and evaluate the hydrometeorological data for the future period according to the global climate model CMIP; a model construction module, configured to construct a dynamic equation between the state variables and the annual growth rate of the state variables, and construct a constitutive relationship reflecting the water use data of each state variable according to the water use data variables related to the state variables in the historical hydrometeorological data, to obtain the social-ecological hydrological evolution model of the Jinghe River Basin; a river prediction module, configured to use the river network classification method that classifies rivers according to the number of tributaries, divide the Jinghe River Basin according to the three-level river network classification method, to obtain six basin simulation units; substitute the hydrometeorological data for the future period of each basin simulation unit into the social-ecological hydrological evolution model, to obtain the social-ecological hydrological evolution simulation value for the future period, and complete the simulation of the social-ecological hydrological evolution process of the Jinghe River Basin.

[0024] The embodiment of the present invention provides a method and device for simulating the social-ecological hydrological evolution process of the Jinghe River Basin. Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects are as follows:

[0025] Obtain the state variables related to water resources and the annual growth rate of state variables in the social and economic data and land use data within the social resources of the Jinghe River Basin; and obtain the historical hydro-meteorological data of each hydrological station, as well as the hydro-meteorological data for the future period obtained by comparing and evaluating CMIP according to the global climate model; construct the dynamic equation between the state variables and the annual growth rate of state variables, and construct the constitutive relationship reflecting the water use data of each state variable based on the water use data variables related to the state variables in the historical hydro-meteorological data, so as to obtain the social-ecological hydrological evolution model of the Jinghe River Basin; use the river network classification method that classifies rivers according to the number of tributaries, divide the Jinghe River Basin according to the three-level river network classification method, and obtain six basin simulation units; substitute the hydro-meteorological data for the future period of each basin simulation unit into the social-ecological hydrological evolution model to obtain the simulated values of the social-ecological hydrological evolution for the future period, and complete the simulation of the social-ecological hydrological evolution process of the Jinghe River Basin.

[0026] Among them, for the created social-ecological hydrological evolution model of the Jinghe River Basin, select the state variables related to water resources from the economic data and land use data in the social resources, and construct the dynamic equation of the state variables and the constitutive relationship between the state variables. Finally, use the hydro-meteorological data for the future period to obtain the simulated values of the social-ecological hydrological evolution for the future period. The hydro-meteorological data records the relevant information of river water resources. Input it into the social-ecological hydrological evolution model constructed by the state variables related to water resources in the social resources. Finally, obtain the simulated values, and link water resources with social resources through the model, making the results of hydrological research more accurate. Description of the Drawings

[0027] Figure 1 It is a schematic flowchart of a method and device for simulating the social-ecological hydrological evolution process of the Jinghe River Basin provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0028] Figure 2 It is a diagram of water-related state variables of a method and device for simulating the social-ecological hydrological evolution process of the Jinghe River Basin provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0029] Figure 3 It is a diagram of evaluation state variables of a method and device for simulating the social-ecological hydrological evolution process of the Jinghe River Basin provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0030] Figure 4 It is a river basin map of a method and device for simulating the social-ecological hydrological evolution process of the Jinghe River Basin provided by an embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Embodiments

[0031] To make the above objects, features, and advantages of the present invention more apparent and understandable, the following detailed description of the specific embodiments of the present invention will be provided in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. Many specific details are set forth in the following description to facilitate a full understanding of the present invention. However, the present invention can be implemented in many other ways different from those described herein, and those skilled in the art can make similar improvements without departing from the spirit of the present invention. Therefore, the present invention is not limited by the specific embodiments disclosed below.

[0032] Referring to Figures 1 to 4 , an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for simulating the social-ecological hydrological evolution process in the Jinghe River Basin, including the following steps:

[0033] Step 1: According to the social-economic data and land use data of various regions through which the Jinghe River Basin flows over a period of time, obtain the state variables related to water resources and the annual growth rates of the state variables in the data. The state variables include: total population, industrial added value, forest and grassland area, cultivated land area, total water storage; and obtain the historical hydro-meteorological data of each hydrological station and the hydro-meteorological data for the future period. Specifically, collect the social-economic data, hydro-meteorological data, flow data of each station, and land use data of the Jinghe River Basin from 2000 to 2020.

[0034] Step 2: Identify the main state variables related to water and establish the dynamic equations of the state variables and the constitutive relationships between different variables. Construct the dynamic equations between the state variables and the annual growth rates of the state variables, and construct the constitutive relationship expressions reflecting the water use data of each state variable according to the water use data variables related to the state variables in the historical hydro-meteorological data, to obtain the social-ecological hydrological evolution model of the Jinghe River Basin.

[0035] Step 3: Divide the Jinghe River Basin into 6 simulation units according to the 3-level river network and administrative boundaries. Use the river network classification method that classifies rivers according to the number of tributaries, and divide the Jinghe River Basin according to the three-level river network classification method to obtain six basin simulation units; substitute the historical hydro-meteorological data of each basin simulation unit into the social-ecological hydrological evolution model for simulation, obtain the simulated values of the state variables of each basin simulation unit, and verify their authenticity.

[0036] Step 4: Write the code of the social-ecological hydrological evolution model and run the model to obtain the simulated values of the state variables;

[0037] Step 5: Evaluate the simulation effect of the model using the relative error, root mean square error, coefficient of determination, and KGE coefficient and calibrate the parameters;

[0038] Step 6: Based on the calibrated parameters, considering the improvement of socioeconomic parameters due to technological and policy developments, set the scenarios of socioeconomic development in future periods, set the meteorological scenarios in future periods, run the model, and finally obtain the simulated values of the social-ecological hydrological evolution process of the Jinghe River Basin in each development scenario in future periods. Specifically, substitute the hydrometeorological data and future parameter scenarios in future periods into the social-ecological hydrological evolution model to obtain the simulated values of the social-ecological hydrological evolution in future periods, and complete the simulation of the social-ecological hydrological evolution process of the Jinghe River Basin.

[0039] A simulation method for the process of constructing a social-ecological hydrological evolution model of the Jinghe River Basin. The aim is to simulate the social-ecological hydrological evolution process of each sub-region unit of the Jinghe River Basin based on the principle of system dynamics with the support of various types of data, and analyze the simulated values of the social hydrological process under different scenarios.

[0040] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: A quantitative dynamic simulation method for the social-ecological hydrological evolution process is proposed. Compared with traditional hydrology that cannot comprehensively reflect the complex coupling relationship between social variables and hydrological variables, starting from the basic feedback structure of a complex system within the framework of system dynamics, fully considering the feedback relationships among various factors between or within systems, a dynamic simulation model that can more comprehensively reflect the process of the complex system in reality is constructed. Through the established multiple feedback mechanisms, it can better simulate and predict the interaction of internal elements and the results of long-term dynamic evolution of the social-ecological hydrological system of the Jinghe River Basin under historical and future scenario conditions.

[0041] An embodiment of the present invention provides a device for simulating the social-ecological hydrological evolution process of the Jinghe River Basin, including:

[0042] A data acquisition module, used to acquire the state variables and the annual growth rates of state variables related to water resources in the socioeconomic data and land use data within the social resources of the Jinghe River Basin; and acquire the historical hydrometeorological data of each hydrological station, and the hydrometeorological data in future periods according to the comparison and evaluation of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) of the global climate model; A model construction module, used to construct a dynamic equation between the state variables and the annual growth rates of state variables, and construct a constitutive relationship reflecting the water use data of each state variable according to the water use data variables related to the state variables in the historical hydrometeorological data, to obtain a social-ecological hydrological evolution model of the Jinghe River Basin; A river prediction module, used to divide the Jinghe River Basin according to the three-level river network classification method that classifies rivers according to the number of tributaries, to obtain six basin simulation units; substitute the hydrometeorological data in future periods of each basin simulation unit into the social-ecological hydrological evolution model to obtain the simulated values of the social-ecological hydrological evolution in future periods, and complete the simulation of the social-ecological hydrological evolution process of the Jinghe River Basin.

[0043] A specific embodiment is as follows:

[0044] Step 1: Collect data, including socioeconomic data, hydro-meteorological data, land use data, and flow data of each county and city in the Jinghe River Basin from 2000 to 2022. Among them, the hydro-meteorological data is used as the driving variable of the model, and the flow data is mainly used to verify the model.

[0045] Step 2: Identify the main state variables in the social-ecological hydrological evolution model of the Jinghe River Basin and establish the constitutive relationships between different variables. For example, taking simulation sub-region unit 1 as an example, the main state variables include the total population P, industrial added value V IA , forest and grassland area A GF , cultivated land area A C , total water storage S, etc. The corresponding state variable equations are as follows:

[0046] P t = P t-1 × (1 + r P ) #(1)

[0047] V IA,t = V IA,t-1 × (1 + r V ) #(2)

[0048] A GF,t = A GF,t-1 × (1 + r GF ) #(3)

[0049] A C,t = A c,t-1 × (1 + r C ) #(4)

[0050] S t = S t-1 + P t + I t - Q t - E t - W t #(5)

[0051] In the formula, r P represents the population growth rate, r V represents the growth rate of industrial added value, r GF represents the growth rate of forest and grassland area, r C represents the growth rate of cultivated land area, P t represents the precipitation of the unit, I t represents the inflow of the unit, Q t represents the outflow of the unit, E t represents the evaporation of the unit, W tIndicates the water consumption of the unit. The subscript t represents the t-th year.

[0052] Taking the evapotranspiration of forest and grassland (E GF ) and the total inflow (I t ) as examples, the constitutive relationship between different variables is:

[0053] E GF,t = α GF × A GF,t × E P,t #(6)

[0054] I t = A IB × P RAIN,t #(7)

[0055] In the formula, α GF represents the conversion coefficient of forest and grassland evapotranspiration; E P,t represents the annual potential evapotranspiration; A IB represents the area of the interval; P RAIN,t represents the annual rainfall.

[0056] Step 3: Take the Jinghe River Basin as the research area, divide it based on the 3rd-level river network, use Qingyang Hydrological Station, Yangjiaping Hydrological Station, and Zhangjiashan Hydrological Station as the partition boundaries, and the middle interval as an independent area. Divide the research area into 6 simulation units. The area above Qingyang Station is Partition 1. The area upstream of Yangjiaping Station is Partition 3. The Maling River, which is below Qingyang Station and to the east of Yangjiaping Station, is Partition 2. The area upstream of Zhangjiashan Hydrological Station and downstream of Yangjiaping Hydrological Station is Partition 4. The Gan River on the west side of Zhangjiashan Station is Partition 5, and the interval from the confluence of the Gan River to the confluence of the Jinghe River into the Weihe River is Partition 6. There is no upstream river inflow in Partition 1, Partition 3, and Partition 5. Partition 1 flows into Partition 2, Partition 2 and Partition 3 flow into Partition 4, and Partition 4 and Partition 5 flow into Partition 6. This balances the differences in the spatial scales of hydrological calculation and social-economic calculation.

[0057] Step 4: Use the dynamic simulation platform to complete the operation and display of the model. Determine the boundary of the social-ecological hydrological evolution model. The time range is from 2000 to 2050. The years from 2000 to 2022 are historical data years, and the years from 2023 to 2050 are the simulation years of the model. The unit time step is 1 year. Each research unit in the model is divided into 5 modules: domestic water use, agricultural water use, ecological water use, industrial water use, and water use in the tertiary industry. At the same time, the hydrometeorological data of annual precipitation data and annual potential evaporation data are assigned by the input data, which are also boundary conditions. According to the established evolution model, obtain the initial values of the main variables and the main parameters of the social-ecological hydrological evolution model in the research area. Write the code of the social-ecological hydrological evolution model and run the model to obtain the simulated values of the state variables.

[0058] Step 5, when verifying the historical simulation, the mean relative error (MRE), Nash efficiency coefficient (NSE), coefficient of determination (R 2 2), and Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient (KGE) are used to evaluate the model variables. The value range of KGE is (-∞, 1). The closer the value is to 1, the higher the degree of agreement between the model simulation results and the observed results, that is, the closer the simulated value is to the measured value. When NES = 1, the simulated value is equal to the observed value; R 2 is used to evaluate the degree of correlation of the simulation. The closer it is to 1, the better the simulation effect. Taking MRE and KGE as examples, the calculation formulas are as follows:

[0059]

[0060]

[0061] where: y sim is the simulated value; y obs is the measured value; r is the linear correlation coefficient between the simulated value and the measured value; β is the ratio of the mean of the simulated value and the measured value; γ refers to the ratio of the coefficient of variation CV of the simulated value and the measured value.

[0062] The absolute mean error simulated by the evolution model through the above formula is within an acceptable range, which proves the effectiveness and reliability of the model and can be used for the next calculation. At the same time, the sensitive parameters are adjusted and the parameters are calibrated.

[0063] Step 6, use the model parameters determined after calibration as the parameter values of the social and economic scenarios in the historical period, use the meteorological data in the historical period as the driving data of the system, run the model, and simulate the simulated values of the social-ecological hydrological evolution process in the Jinghe River Basin in the historical period.

[0064] Step 7, based on the calibrated parameters, considering the improvement of social and economic parameters due to technological progress and policy development, set the social and economic development scenarios in the future period, combine with the meteorological scenarios in the future period, and set the simulation scenarios in the future period. Run the model under each simulation scenario, and finally obtain the simulated values of the social-ecological hydrological evolution process in the Jinghe River Basin under each simulation scenario in the future period. Based on the simulated values, evaluate and compare the differences in social-ecological hydrological variables under each simulation scenario.

[0065] The above-described embodiments only represent several implementation manners of the present invention. The description is relatively specific and detailed, but it should not be construed as a limitation on the scope of the invention patent. It should be noted that for those of ordinary skill in the art, without departing from the concept of the present invention, several deformations and improvements can still be made, and these all belong to the protection scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the invention patent should be subject to the appended claims.

Claims

1. A method for simulating the social-ecological hydrological evolution process in the Jinghe River Basin, characterized in that, It includes the following steps: Obtain the state variables related to water resources and the annual growth rates of state variables in the social and economic data and land use data within the social resources of the Jinghe River Basin; and obtain the historical hydro-meteorological data of each hydrological station, and the hydro-meteorological data for the future period based on the comparison and evaluation of CMIP according to the global climate model; Construct a dynamic equation between the state variables and the annual growth rates of state variables, and construct a constitutive relation reflecting the water use data of each state variable based on the water use data variables related to the state variables in the historical hydro-meteorological data, to obtain the social-ecological hydrological evolution model of the Jinghe River Basin; Use the river network grading method that classifies rivers according to the number of tributaries, divide the Jinghe River Basin according to the three-level river network grading method to obtain six basin simulation units; substitute the hydro-meteorological data for the future period of each basin simulation unit into the social-ecological hydrological evolution model to obtain the simulated values of the social-ecological hydrological evolution for the future period, and complete the simulation of the social-ecological hydrological evolution process of the Jinghe River Basin.

2. The social-ecological hydrological evolution process simulation method of the Jinghe River Basin according to claim 1, wherein The specific steps for constructing the dynamic equation between the state variables and the annual growth rates of state variables include: The state variables include: total population P, industrial added value V IA , forest and grassland area A GF , cultivated land area A C , total water storage S; The dynamic equation of the state variable of the total population P is: P t = P t-1 ×(1 + r P ); Industrial added value V IA The dynamic equation of the state variable is: V IA,t = V IA,t-1 ×(1 + r V ); The area A of forest and grassland GF The dynamic equation of the state variable is: A GF,t = A GF,t-1 ×(1 + r GF ); Cultivated land area A C The dynamic equation of the state variable is: A C,t = A c,t-1 ×(1 + r C ); The kinetic equation of the state variable of the total water storage S is: S t = S t-1 + P t + I t - Q t - E t - W t ; Among them, r P represents the growth rate of the population, r V represents the growth rate of the industrial added value, r GF represents the growth rate of the forest and grassland area, r C represents the growth rate of the cultivated land area, P t represents the precipitation of the unit, I t represents the inflow of the unit, Q t represents the outflow of the unit, E t represents the evaporation of the unit, W t represents the water consumption of the unit, and the subscript t represents the t-th year.

3. A method for simulating the social-ecological hydrological evolution process in the Jinghe River Basin according to claim 1, characterized in that, The constitutive relation specifically includes: Evaporation E of forest and grassland GF,t , and the constitutive relation is as follows: E GF,t = α GF × A GF,t × E P,t Total inflow I t , the constitutive relation is as follows: I t = A IB × P RAIN,t Among them, α GF represents the evaporation conversion coefficient of forest and grassland, E P,t represents the annual potential evaporation, A IB represents the area of the interval, P RAIN,t represents the annual rainfall, A GF,t represents the area of forest and grassland.

4. The simulation method of the social-ecological hydrological evolution process in the Jinghe River Basin according to claim 1, wherein, The six basin simulation units specifically include: There is no upstream river inflow in the first, third, and fifth basin simulation units among the six basin simulation units; The first basin simulation unit drains into the second basin simulation unit; The second and third basin simulation units drain into the fourth basin simulation unit; The fourth and fifth basin simulation units drain into the sixth basin simulation unit.

5. The social-ecological hydrological evolution process simulation method of the Jinghe River Basin as described in claim 1, wherein, Each basin simulation unit includes: domestic water use, agricultural water use, ecological water use, industrial water use, and water use for the tertiary industry.

6. The social-ecological hydrological evolution process simulation method of the Jinghe River Basin according to claim 1, characterized in that The social-ecological hydrological evolution model needs to input the historical hydro-meteorological data for simulation and verify the authenticity of the simulated values. The specific steps include: Use the mean relative error for evaluation. When the value of the mean relative error is smaller, it indicates that the gap between the prediction result and the true value is smaller; Use the Nash efficiency coefficient for evaluation. When the Nash efficiency coefficient is 1, the simulated value is equal to the observed value; Use the coefficient of determination for evaluation. When the coefficient of determination approaches 1, it indicates that the reliability of the equation is higher; Use the Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient for evaluation. When the Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient approaches 1, it shows that the degree of coincidence between the simulation result and the observed result is high.

7. A simulation device for the social-ecological hydrological evolution process in the Jinghe River Basin, characterized in that, It includes: A data acquisition module for obtaining the state variables related to water resources and the annual growth rates of state variables in the social and economic data and land use data within the social resources of the Jinghe River Basin; And obtain the historical hydro-meteorological data of each hydrological station, and the hydro-meteorological data for the future period based on the comparison and evaluation of CMIP according to the global climate model; A model construction module for constructing a dynamic equation between the state variables and the annual growth rates of state variables, and constructing a constitutive relation reflecting the water use data of each state variable based on the water use data variables related to the state variables in the historical hydro-meteorological data, to obtain the social-ecological hydrological evolution model of the Jinghe River Basin; A river prediction module is used to divide the Jinghe River Basin according to the three-level river network classification method that classifies rivers based on the number of tributaries, obtaining six basin simulation units; substituting the hydrometeorological data of each basin simulation unit in the future period into the social-ecological hydrological evolution model to obtain the social-ecological hydrological evolution simulation values in the future period, thus completing the simulation of the social-ecological hydrological evolution process of the Jinghe River Basin.

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