Maize climate disaster risk comprehensive evaluation method based on growing season indexes

Abstract

The invention discloses a comprehensive evaluation method for a corn climate disaster risk based on a growing season index, and relates to the technical field of agricultural climate disaster risk evaluation, and the method comprises the steps: respectively constructing danger, exposure and vulnerability indexes in a corn growth period according to historical data; according to the danger, the exposure degree and the vulnerability index, combining the occurrence probabilities of different climate disasters to construct a comprehensive risk assessment system for the corn climate disasters; and according to the comprehensive risk assessment system for the corn climate disasters, calculating comprehensive risk levels of the corn climate disasters in different areas according to the obtained basic data. According to the invention, a set of comprehensive and scientific corn disaster comprehensive risk evaluation method evaluation system under the influence of climate change is constructed, and multi-dimensional and accurate evaluation of the corn disaster risk is realized.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of agricultural climate disaster risk assessment, and more particularly to a comprehensive assessment method for corn climate disaster risk based on growing season indicators. Background Art

[0002] Corn is widely used in food, feed, beverages, and industry, and its production is crucial for food security and the efficient supply of agricultural products. However, amidst the intensification of global climate change, corn production faces multiple threats from climate disasters, including drought, waterlogging, and high temperatures, which have severely impacted corn yields.

[0003] Current technological achievements in corn climate disaster risk assessment primarily focus on single-disaster monitoring and evaluation, yield correlation model construction, and the exploration of standardized evaluation frameworks. Existing technologies often construct evaluation systems for single disasters, such as waterlogging and drought. These approaches suffer from incomplete coverage of disaster types and insufficient characterization of physiological response mechanisms. This stems from the significant regional variations in crop sensitivity to disasters, and existing models often utilize fixed threshold parameterization. Climate-yield correlation model construction suffers from insufficient climate disaster risk assessment capabilities, primarily due to the inability of crop models to effectively assess crop yield losses caused by extreme climate events, resulting in incomplete analysis of the disaster impact transmission mechanism. Standardized evaluation frameworks also suffer from poor dynamic adaptability and high regional migration costs. This stems from the lack of a quantifiable set of climate disaster characteristic parameters for the crop growing season and the rigidity of the model parameter adjustment mechanism.

[0004] Therefore, how to construct a comprehensive and scientific evaluation method system for corn disaster comprehensive risk assessment under the influence of climate change and realize multi-dimensional and accurate assessment of corn disaster risk is an urgent problem that technicians in this field need to solve. Summary of the Invention

[0005] In view of this, the present invention provides a comprehensive evaluation method for corn climate disaster risk based on growing season indicators, constructs a comprehensive and scientific evaluation method system for corn disaster comprehensive risk under the influence of climate change, and realizes a multi-dimensional and accurate assessment of corn disaster risk.

[0006] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions: A comprehensive assessment method for corn climate disaster risk based on growing season indicators includes: Based on historical data, the hazard, exposure and vulnerability indices during the maize growth period were constructed respectively; Based on the hazard, exposure and vulnerability indexes, combined with the disaster weights of different climate disaster probabilities, a comprehensive risk assessment system for corn climate disasters is constructed; According to the comprehensive risk assessment system for corn climate disasters, the comprehensive risk levels of corn climate disasters in different regions are calculated based on the basic data obtained.

[0007] Preferably, the risk index includes corn drought risk index, corn high temperature heat damage risk index, corn waterlogging risk index and corn low temperature cold damage risk index.

[0008] Preferably, the corn drought risk index specifically includes: Drought intensity DI uses the percentage of precipitation to quantify the degree of drought, and the calculation formula is: ; in, is the actual precipitation during the monitoring period during the corn growth period, The average precipitation over the same period in history; Drought frequency DF is calculated as follows: ; in, is the number of drought events during the maize growing period, is the average number of drought events during the same period in corn history; Drought coverage DC is calculated as follows: ; in, is the drought-affected area, is the regional corn planting area; The drought duration DD is calculated as follows: ; in, The number of days the drought lasts, is the number of days in the corn growing period; Corn Drought Hazard Index , the calculation formula is: ; in, 、 、 、 is the weight of each indicator.

[0009] Preferably, the corn high temperature heat damage risk index specifically includes: The high temperature heat damage intensity TI is calculated as follows: ; in, is the number of days exceeding the high temperature threshold during the corn growth period, is the number of days in the corn growing period of that year; The calculation formula for high temperature heat damage frequency TF is: ; in, is the number of high temperature heat damage events during the maize growth period, is the average number of high temperature heat damage events in corn during the same period in history; The high temperature heat damage coverage TC is calculated as follows: ; in, is the area covered by high temperature heat damage, is the regional corn planting area; The high temperature heat damage duration TD is calculated as follows: ; in, The number of days that high temperature heat damage lasts, is the number of days in the corn growing period; Corn high temperature heat damage risk index , the calculation formula is: ; in, 、 、 、 is the weight of each indicator.

[0010] Preferably, the corn waterlogging risk index specifically includes: Waterlogging intensity FI, calculated as follows: ; in, is the number of rainy days during the corn growing period, is the number of days in the growing period of corn in that year; The calculation formula for the frequency of waterlogging disasters FF is: ; in, is the number of waterlogging disasters that occurred during the corn growing period, is the average number of waterlogging disasters that occurred during the same period in corn history; The calculation formula for the coverage of waterlogging disaster FC is: ; in, The area covered by waterlogging disasters is is the regional corn planting area; The calculation formula for the duration of waterlogging disaster FD is: ; in, The number of days the waterlogging disaster lasts is is the number of days in the corn growing period; Corn waterlogging risk index , the calculation formula is: ; in, 、 、 、 is the weight of each indicator.

[0011] Preferably, the corn chilling injury risk index specifically includes: The calculation formula for low temperature chilling damage intensity LI is: ; in, is the number of days of low temperature and chilling damage during the growth period of corn, is the number of days in the corn growing period of that year; The calculation formula for the frequency of low temperature damage LF is: ; in, is the number of low temperature and chilling damages during the growth period of corn, is the average number of low temperature and chilling damages to corn during the same period in history; The low temperature damage coverage LC is calculated as follows: ; in, is the area covered by low temperature and chilling damage, is the regional corn planting area; The calculation formula for the duration of low temperature damage LD is: ; in, The number of days of low temperature and chilling damage lasts. is the number of days in the corn growing period; Corn Chilling Damage Risk Index , the calculation formula is: ; in, 、 、 、 is the weight of each indicator.

[0012] Preferably, the exposure index during the corn growth period specifically includes: ; in, is the corn planting area in the region that year, is the total sown area of crops in the region that year, It is the exposure index during the growth period of corn.

[0013] Preferably, the vulnerability index during the growth period of corn specifically includes: ; in, is the average corn yield in the region over the years, is the average corn yield loss in the region over the years, It is the vulnerability index of corn during its growth period.

[0014] Preferably, the construction of a comprehensive risk assessment system for corn climate disasters specifically includes: ; in, 、 、 、 The weights of different climate disasters in the same region are calculated based on the probability of regional drought, high temperature heat damage, waterlogging, and low temperature cold damage; is the corn drought risk index, is the corn high temperature heat damage risk index, is the corn waterlogging risk index, is the corn low temperature chilling injury risk index, is the exposure index during the growth period of corn, It is the vulnerability index of corn during its growth period.

[0015] It can be seen from the above technical solutions that, compared with the prior art, the present invention discloses a comprehensive evaluation method for corn climate disaster risks based on growing season indicators. By constructing an evaluation index system including danger, exposure, and vulnerability, basic data is collected, and the annual level of comprehensive climate disaster risk in different regions is calculated. This method accurately reflects the actual conditions of climate disasters such as drought, high temperature heat damage, waterlogging, and low temperature cold damage faced by corn production in different regions, and fully reflects the differences in climate disaster risk levels in various regions. It can not only accurately assess the dangers of different climate disasters, but also effectively measure the comprehensive risk level faced by corn production, providing a key quantitative basis for agricultural development planning, policy formulation, and response to climate change, effectively promoting the implementation of the climate smart agriculture development strategy, and playing an extremely important role in promoting the sustainable development of agriculture and achieving sustainable agricultural goals. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0016] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art. Obviously, the drawings described below are merely embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on the provided drawings without paying any creative work.

[0017] Figure 1 A diagram of the steps of the method provided by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0018] The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative efforts are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0019] The embodiment of the present invention discloses a comprehensive evaluation method for corn climate disaster risk based on growing season indicators, such as Figure 1 Shown, including: Based on historical data, the hazard, exposure and vulnerability indices during the maize growth period were constructed respectively; Based on the hazard, exposure and vulnerability indexes, combined with the disaster weights of different climate disaster probabilities, a comprehensive risk assessment system for corn climate disasters was constructed; According to the comprehensive risk assessment system of corn climate disasters, the comprehensive risk level of corn climate disasters in different regions is calculated based on the basic data obtained.

[0020] In a specific embodiment, the risk index includes a corn drought risk index, a corn high temperature heat damage risk index, a corn waterlogging risk index, and a corn low temperature chilling risk index.

[0021] In a specific embodiment, the corn drought risk index specifically includes: ① Drought intensity DI, which uses the percentage of precipitation to quantify the degree of drought, is calculated as follows: ; in, is the actual precipitation during the monitoring period during the corn growth period, It is the average precipitation over the same period in history. A larger value indicates a more severe drought.

[0022] ②Drought frequency DF, the ratio of the number of drought events during the corn growing period to the average number of drought events during the same period in corn history. The calculation formula is: ; in, is the number of drought events during the maize growing period, is the average number of drought events in corn during the same period in history. The higher the ratio, the greater the regional drought risk.

[0023] ③ Drought coverage DC, which measures the spatial distribution characteristics by the proportion of drought-affected area, is calculated as follows: ; in, is the drought-affected area, The corn planting area in the region.

[0024] ④Drought duration DD, the proportion of drought duration days to the corn growth period, is calculated as follows: ; in, The number of days the drought lasts, The number of days in the corn growing period. The higher the proportion, the higher the risk of yield loss.

[0025] ⑤ Corn drought risk index H D It is determined by four characteristic indicators: drought intensity DI, drought frequency DF, drought coverage DC, and drought duration DD. The calculation formula is: ; in, 、 、 、 The weight of each indicator is determined according to the expert scoring method.

[0026] In a specific embodiment, the corn high temperature heat damage risk index specifically includes: ① High temperature heat damage intensity TI, which uses the proportion of days exceeding the high temperature threshold to quantify the degree of high temperature heat damage. The calculation formula is: ; in, The number of days during the growth period of corn that exceeds the high temperature threshold (≥30℃) The number of days in the corn growing period that year. The larger the value, the more serious the high temperature heat damage.

[0027] ② High temperature heat damage frequency TF, the ratio of the number of high temperature heat damage events during the corn growth period to the average number of high temperature heat damage events during the same period in corn history. The calculation formula is: ; in, is the number of high temperature heat damage events during the maize growth period, is the average number of high temperature heat damage events for corn during the same period in history. The higher the ratio, the greater the risk of high temperature heat damage in the region.

[0028] ③ High temperature heat damage coverage TC, the spatial distribution characteristics are measured by the proportion of the damaged area, and the calculation formula is: ; in, is the area covered by high temperature heat damage, The corn planting area in the region.

[0029] ④ Duration of high temperature heat damage TD, the proportion of high temperature heat damage duration days in the corn growth period, calculated as: ; in, The number of days that high temperature heat damage lasts, The number of days in the corn growing period. The higher the proportion, the higher the risk of yield loss.

[0030] ⑤Corn high temperature heat damage risk index , which is determined by the four characteristic indicators of high temperature heat damage intensity TI, high temperature heat damage frequency TF, high temperature heat damage coverage TC, and high temperature heat damage duration TD. The calculation formula is: ; in, 、 、 、 The weight of each indicator is determined according to the expert scoring method.

[0031] In a specific embodiment, the corn waterlogging risk index specifically includes: ① Waterlogging intensity FI, which uses the proportion of rainstorm days to quantify the degree of waterlogging, is calculated as follows: ; in, The number of days with heavy rain (daily precipitation exceeding 50 mm) during the corn growing period, The number of days in the corn growing period that year. A larger value indicates a more serious waterlogging disaster.

[0032] ② Waterlogging frequency FF, the ratio of the number of waterlogging disasters during the corn growth period to the average number of waterlogging disasters during the same period in history. The calculation formula is: ; in, is the number of waterlogging disasters that occurred during the corn growing period, is the average number of waterlogging disasters that occurred in corn during the same period in history. The higher the ratio, the greater the risk of waterlogging disasters in the region.

[0033] ③ Waterlogging disaster coverage FC, which measures the spatial distribution characteristics by the proportion of the affected area, is calculated as follows: ; in, The area covered by waterlogging disasters is The corn planting area in the region.

[0034] ④ Duration of waterlogging disaster FD, the proportion of waterlogging disaster duration days to the corn growth period, is calculated as follows: ; in, The number of days the waterlogging disaster lasts is The number of days in the corn growing period. The higher the proportion, the higher the risk of yield loss.

[0035] ⑤ Corn waterlogging risk index , which is determined by the four characteristic indicators of waterlogging intensity FI, waterlogging frequency FF, waterlogging coverage FC, and waterlogging duration FD. The calculation formula is: ; in, 、 、 、 The weight of each indicator is determined according to the expert scoring method.

[0036] In a specific embodiment, the corn chilling injury risk index specifically includes: ① Low temperature chilling injury intensity LI, the proportion of low temperature chilling injury days is used to quantify the degree of low temperature chilling injury, and the calculation formula is: ; in, The number of days of low temperature damage during the growth period of corn (less than -2℃ in the seedling stage, less than 1℃ in the jointing stage, less than 18℃ in the tasseling and flowering stage, and less than 16℃ in the grain filling and maturity stage) is shown in the figure. The number of days in the corn growing period that year. The larger the value, the more serious the low temperature and chilling damage.

[0037] ② Low temperature and chilling damage frequency LF, the ratio of the number of low temperature and chilling damage occurrences during the corn growth period to the average number of low temperature and chilling damage occurrences during the same period in history. The calculation formula is: ; in, is the number of low temperature and chilling damages during the growth period of corn, is the average number of low temperature and chilling damage occurrences for corn during the same period in history. The higher the ratio, the greater the risk of low temperature and chilling damage in the region.

[0038] ③ Low temperature and chilling damage coverage LC, which measures the spatial distribution characteristics by the proportion of damaged area, is calculated as follows: ; in, is the area covered by low temperature and chilling damage, The corn planting area in the region.

[0039] ④ Duration of low temperature and chilling damage LD, the proportion of the duration of low temperature and chilling damage in the growth period of corn, is calculated as follows: ; in, The number of days of low temperature and chilling damage lasts. The number of days in the corn growing period. The higher the proportion, the higher the risk of yield loss.

[0040] ⑤ Corn low temperature chilling injury risk index It is determined by the four characteristic indicators of low temperature chilling damage intensity LI, low temperature chilling damage frequency LF, low temperature chilling damage coverage LC, and low temperature chilling damage duration LD. The calculation formula is: ; in, 、 、 、 The weight of each indicator is determined according to the expert scoring method.

[0041] In a specific embodiment, the exposure index during the growth period of corn is closely related to the planting area, and the calculation formula is as follows: ; in, is the corn planting area in the region that year, is the total sown area of crops in the region that year, It is the exposure index during the growth period of corn.

[0042] In a specific embodiment, a vulnerability index for corn during its growth period is constructed: corn faces different climate disasters, and its sensitivity to losses is different, resulting in significant differences in vulnerability. The present invention comprehensively characterizes corn vulnerability from the perspective of the degree of loss from different climate disasters. The calculation formula is as follows: ; in, is the average corn yield in the region over the years, is the average corn yield loss in the region over the years, It is the vulnerability index of corn during its growth period.

[0043] In a specific embodiment, constructing a comprehensive risk assessment system for corn climate disasters specifically includes: ; in, 、 、 、 The weights of different climate disasters in the same region are calculated based on the probability of regional drought, high temperature heat damage, waterlogging, and low temperature cold damage; is the corn drought risk index, is the corn high temperature heat damage risk index, is the corn waterlogging risk index, is the corn low temperature chilling injury risk index, is the exposure index during the growth period of corn, It is the vulnerability index of corn during its growth period.

[0044] The weights of different climate disasters in the same region are calculated based on the probability of occurrence of regional drought, high temperature heat damage, waterlogging, and low temperature cold damage. Specifically, the weights include: ; ; ; ; Among them, DF 平均 is the average number of drought events in the same period of corn history, TF 平均 is the average number of high temperature heat damage events in corn during the same period in history, FF 平均 is the average number of waterlogging disasters that occurred during the same period in history for corn, LF 平均 F is the average number of low temperature and chilling damages to corn during the same period in history. 总 The total number of drought, high temperature, waterlogging, and low temperature damage to corn during the same period in history; is the disaster weight of drought events for corn in the same region during the same period, is the disaster weight of high temperature heat damage events for corn in the same region during the same period, is the disaster weight of waterlogging disasters for corn in the same region during the same period, is the disaster weight of low temperature and chilling damage events for corn in the same region during the same period.

[0045] Based on basic data, the annual comprehensive risk level of climate disasters for corn in different regions is calculated, and the comprehensive risk of climate disasters in major corn-producing areas is ranked, providing a scientific basis for the adoption of climate change response measures for corn production in different regions.

[0046] The various embodiments in this specification are described in a progressive manner, with each embodiment focusing on the differences from other embodiments. Reference can be made to the common and similar parts between the various embodiments. For the devices disclosed in the embodiments, since they correspond to the methods disclosed in the embodiments, the description is relatively simple, and the relevant parts can be referred to the method description.

[0047] The above description of the disclosed embodiments is intended to enable one skilled in the art to implement or use the present invention. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to one skilled in the art, and the general principles defined herein may be implemented in other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the present invention. Therefore, the present invention is not limited to the embodiments shown herein but is intended to conform to the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.

Claims

1. A comprehensive assessment method for corn climate disaster risk based on growing season indicators, characterized in that: include: Based on historical data, the hazard, exposure and vulnerability indices during the maize growth period were constructed respectively; Based on the hazard, exposure and vulnerability indexes, combined with the disaster weights of different climate disaster probabilities, a comprehensive risk assessment system for corn climate disasters is constructed; According to the comprehensive risk assessment system for corn climate disasters, the comprehensive risk levels of corn climate disasters in different regions are calculated based on the basic data obtained.

2. The method for comprehensive assessment of corn climate disaster risk based on growing season indicators according to claim 1, characterized in that: The risk index includes corn drought risk index, corn high temperature heat damage risk index, corn waterlogging risk index and corn low temperature cold damage risk index.

3. The method for comprehensive assessment of corn climate disaster risk based on growing season indicators according to claim 2, characterized in that: The corn drought risk index specifically includes: Drought intensity DI uses the percentage of precipitation to quantify the degree of drought, and the calculation formula is: ； in, is the actual precipitation during the monitoring period during the corn growth period, The average precipitation over the same period in history; Drought frequency DF is calculated as follows: ； in, is the number of drought events during the maize growing period, is the average number of drought events during the same period in corn history; Drought coverage DC is calculated as follows: ； in, is the drought-affected area, is the regional corn planting area; The drought duration DD is calculated as follows: ； in, The number of days the drought lasts, is the number of days in the growth period of corn; Corn Drought Hazard Index , the calculation formula is: ； in, 、 、 、 is the weight of each indicator.

4. The method for comprehensive assessment of corn climate disaster risk based on growing season indicators according to claim 2, characterized in that: The corn high temperature heat damage risk index specifically includes: The high temperature heat damage intensity TI is calculated as follows: ； in, is the number of days exceeding the high temperature threshold during the corn growth period, is the number of days in the corn growing period of that year; The high temperature heat damage frequency TF is calculated as follows: ； in, is the number of high temperature heat damage events during the maize growth period, is the average number of high temperature heat damage events in corn during the same period in history; The high temperature heat damage coverage TC is calculated as follows: ； in, is the area covered by high temperature heat damage, is the regional corn planting area; The high temperature heat damage duration TD is calculated as follows: ； in, The number of days that high temperature heat damage lasts, is the number of days in the growth period of corn; Corn high temperature heat damage risk index , the calculation formula is: ； in, 、 、 、 is the weight of each indicator.

5. The method for comprehensive assessment of corn climate disaster risk based on growing season indicators according to claim 2, characterized in that: The corn waterlogging risk index specifically includes: Waterlogging intensity FI, calculated as follows: ； in, is the number of rainy days during the corn growing period, is the number of days in the growing period of corn in that year; The calculation formula for the frequency of waterlogging disasters FF is: ； in, is the number of waterlogging disasters that occurred during the maize growth period, is the average number of waterlogging disasters that occurred during the same period in corn history; The calculation formula for the coverage of waterlogging disaster FC is: ； in, The area covered by waterlogging disasters is is the regional corn planting area; The calculation formula for the duration of waterlogging disaster FD is: ； in, The number of days the waterlogging disaster lasts is is the number of days in the growth period of corn; Corn waterlogging risk index , the calculation formula is: ； in, 、 、 、 is the weight of each indicator.

6. The method for comprehensive assessment of corn climate disaster risk based on growing season indicators according to claim 2, characterized in that: The corn low temperature chilling injury risk index specifically includes: The calculation formula for low temperature chilling damage intensity LI is: ； in, is the number of days of low temperature and chilling damage during the growth period of corn, is the number of days in the corn growing period of that year; The calculation formula for the frequency of low temperature damage LF is: ； in, is the number of low temperature and chilling damages during the growth period of corn, is the average number of low temperature and chilling damages to corn during the same period in history; The low temperature damage coverage LC is calculated as follows: ； in, is the area covered by low temperature and chilling damage, is the regional corn planting area; The calculation formula for the duration of low temperature damage LD is: ； in, The number of days of low temperature and chilling damage lasts. is the number of days in the growth period of corn; Corn Chilling Damage Risk Index , the calculation formula is: ； in, 、 、 、 is the weight of each indicator.

7. The method for comprehensive assessment of corn climate disaster risk based on growing season indicators according to claim 1, characterized in that: The exposure index during the corn growth period specifically includes: ； in, is the corn planting area in the region that year, is the total sown area of crops in the region that year, It is the exposure index during the growth period of corn.

8. The method for comprehensive assessment of corn climate disaster risk based on growing season indicators according to claim 1, characterized in that: The vulnerability index of corn during its growth period specifically includes: ； in, is the average corn yield in the region over the years, is the average corn yield loss in the region over the years, It is the vulnerability index of corn during its growth period.

9. The method for comprehensive assessment of corn climate disaster risk based on growing season indicators according to claim 1, characterized in that: The construction of a comprehensive risk assessment system for corn climate disasters specifically includes: ； in, 、 、 、 The weights of different climate disasters in the same region are calculated based on the probability of regional drought, high temperature heat damage, waterlogging, and low temperature cold damage; is the corn drought risk index, is the corn high temperature heat damage risk index, is the corn waterlogging risk index, is the corn low temperature chilling injury risk index, is the exposure index during the growth period of corn, It is the vulnerability index of corn during its growth period.

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