Water resource dynamic bearing capacity evaluation method and system

Abstract

The invention discloses a water resource dynamic bearing capacity evaluation method and system, and relates to the technical field of water resource management. An input-output relation among a climate mode, a meteorological factor and a land water resource system, a water resource circulation conversion relation equation, a pollutant circulation conversion relation equation, an economic and social system internal restriction equation, a water resource bearing index restriction equation and an ecological and environment control target restriction equation are used as constraints; establishing a water resource dynamic bearing capacity model; and on the basis of the established water resource dynamic bearing capacity model, predicting a water resource bearing capacity change trend in future time. According to the method, the dynamic bearing capacity change trend of the water resource can be accurately evaluated in real time, and the defects of an existing static model in practical application are overcome. Under the extreme conditions of water resource shortage, drought and the like, a scientific decision basis can be provided for government departments, and sustainable development of social economy is guaranteed.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of water resource management, and more particularly to a method and system for evaluating the dynamic carrying capacity of water resources. Background Art

[0002] Water resources are fundamental to socioeconomic development. However, with global climate change, population growth, and the advancement of industrialization, the imbalance between water supply and demand is becoming increasingly prominent. The dynamics of water carrying capacity have become a key issue in water resource management. Existing water carrying capacity assessment methods are mostly static models that fail to fully account for the dynamic changes in water resources across time and spatial scales, resulting in significant deviations between assessment results and actual conditions. Therefore, how to monitor and assess changes in water carrying capacity in real time is an urgent challenge for those skilled in the art. Summary of the Invention

[0003] In light of this, the present invention provides a method and system for evaluating the dynamic carrying capacity of water resources. By establishing a mathematical model of this capacity and integrating it with actual hydrological and meteorological data, socioeconomic data, and environmental change data, this system can reflect the changing trends of water resource carrying capacity in real time. This method offers high accuracy and real-time performance, providing a scientific basis for the rational allocation and utilization of water resources.

[0004] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions:

[0005] A method for evaluating the dynamic carrying capacity of water resources, comprising:

[0006] Taking the maximum function of economic and social scale as the objective function, and taking the climate model, the input-output relationship between meteorological factors and the land surface water resource system, the water resource cycle transformation relationship equation, the pollutant cycle transformation relationship equation, the internal constraint equation of the economic and social system, the water resource carrying index constraint equation, and the ecological and environmental control target constraint equation as constraints, a water resource dynamic carrying capacity model is established;

[0007] Based on the established water resources dynamic carrying capacity model, the changing trend of water resources carrying capacity in the future is predicted.

[0008] Optionally, the objective function taking the maximum economic and social scale function as the objective function is expressed as:

[0009] Max(P, A, S, ...)

[0010] In the formula, P represents the total population, A represents the total industrial and agricultural output value or GDP, and S represents the total area of cities and towns.

[0011] Optionally, the input-output relationship between the meteorological factors and the land surface water resources system is expressed as:

[0012] Sub Mod(RCP-Q)

[0013] Among them, Sub Mod (RCP) represents the meteorological factor climate output module, and Sub Mod (Q) represents the land surface water resources system input module.

[0014] Optionally, the water resource cycle conversion relationship equation is expressed as:

[0015]

[0016] Where P, E, and W cons are precipitation, total evaporation, and total water consumption; ΔV 地下水 , ΔV 地表水 are the changes in water storage capacity of groundwater and surface water respectively; Q 入 , Q 出 are the amount of water flowing into and out of the area respectively; Q Can , Q Self , Q In , Q again represents the available water resources, the source water in the area, the water volume transferred from outside the area, and the wastewater reuse volume; a represents the water resource utilization coefficient; W indu 、W arg 、W Life 、W other 、W Ret represents industrial water consumption, agricultural water consumption, domestic water consumption, other water consumption and return water; ΔW is the remaining available water resources; E I 、E A 、E L are the water consumption of industry, agriculture and domestic use respectively; Q 调 is the total amount of water transferred from outside the area; Q Ret is the water content, C Ret The amount of pollutants.

[0017] Optionally, the pollutant cycle transformation relationship equation is expressed as:

[0018]

[0019] Where W WD is the total amount of a pollutant discharged after sewage treatment (kg); is the sewage discharge volume of the first calculation unit (m 3 ); is the concentration of a pollutant after sewage treatment in the first calculation unit (g / L); μ i is the sewage treatment rate of the i-th calculation unit; is the comprehensive concentration of a pollutant in the sewage of the i-th calculation unit (g / L); Q1 is the amount of water discharged from the upstream river (m 3 );Q m is the runoff volume of the control section (m 3 ); C1 is the concentration of a pollutant in the upstream section (g / L); C m is the concentration in the control section (g / L); β is the comprehensive reduction rate of pollutants.

[0020] Optionally, the internal constraint equation of the economic and social system is expressed as:

[0021]

[0022] Where Y I1 、Y I2 are the lower and upper limits of per capita industrial output value respectively; Y A1 、Y A2 are the lower and upper limits of per capita agricultural output value; Y Indu 、Y Arg , P are industrial output value, agricultural output value and total population respectively.

[0023] Optionally, the water resources carrying index constraint equation is expressed as:

[0024]

[0025] I≤1

[0026] Where W Lost Indicates actual water consumption, Q Can It represents the carrying capacity of water resources, and I represents the dynamic carrying capacity of water resources.

[0027] Optionally, the ecological and environmental control objective constraint equation is expressed as:

[0028]

[0029] Where Q m 、C m They are respectively the runoff of the control section (m 3 ), concentration (g / L); W s is the target value for total pollutant quantity control (kg); C s is the target value of the concentration in the control section (g / L); Q s is the minimum target value for river runoff control (m 3 ).

[0030] A water resources dynamic carrying capacity evaluation system, comprising:

[0031] The model building module uses the maximum economic and social scale function as the objective function and the input-output relationship between climate patterns, meteorological factors and land surface water resources system, water resources cycle transformation relationship equation, pollutant cycle transformation relationship equation, economic and social system internal constraint equation, water resources carrying index constraint equation, and ecological and environmental control target constraint equation as constraints to establish a water resources dynamic carrying capacity model;

[0032] The carrying capacity evaluation module predicts the changing trend of water resource carrying capacity in the future based on the established water resource dynamic carrying capacity model.

[0033] As can be seen from the above technical solutions, compared with the existing technology, the present invention provides a method and system for evaluating the dynamic carrying capacity of water resources. This method uses the maximum economic and social scale function as the objective function, and uses the climate model, the input-output relationship between meteorological factors and the land surface water resource system, the water resource cycle transformation relationship equation, the pollutant cycle transformation relationship equation, the internal constraint equation of the economic and social system, the water resource carrying index constraint equation, and the ecological and environmental control target constraint equation as constraints to establish a dynamic water resource carrying capacity model. Based on the established dynamic water resource carrying capacity model, the changing trend of water resource carrying capacity in the future is predicted. The present invention can accurately and in real time assess the changing trend of the dynamic carrying capacity of water resources, solving the shortcomings of existing static models in practical applications. By introducing multiple dynamic adjustment mechanisms, the model has strong adaptability and can provide important support for the rational allocation, management, and optimization of water resources. In extreme situations such as water shortages and droughts, the present invention can provide government departments with a scientific decision-making basis to ensure the sustainable development of the social economy. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0034] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art. Obviously, the drawings described below are merely embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on the provided drawings without paying any creative work.

[0035] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of the water resources dynamic carrying capacity model method provided by the present invention.

[0036] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the water resource flow structure provided by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0037] The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative efforts are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0038] The embodiment of the present invention discloses a method for evaluating the dynamic carrying capacity of water resources. Figure 1 and Figure 2 Shown include:

[0039] Taking the maximum function of economic and social scale as the objective function, and taking the climate model, the input-output relationship between meteorological factors and the land surface water resource system, the water resource cycle transformation relationship equation, the pollutant cycle transformation relationship equation, the internal constraint equation of the economic and social system, the water resource carrying index constraint equation, and the ecological and environmental control target constraint equation as constraints, a water resource dynamic carrying capacity model is established;

[0040] Based on the established water resources dynamic carrying capacity model, the changing trend of water resources carrying capacity in the future is predicted.

[0041] In a specific embodiment, the following are included:

[0042] (1) Establish evaluation objectives

[0043] Based on the definitions and interpretations of water resource carrying capacity and dynamic water resource carrying capacity, it can be seen that the maximum economic and social scale supported by a water resource system, as determined through certain calculations, is "water resource carrying capacity." Based on this idea, the PSO-COIM model uses the function representing the maximum economic and social scale as the objective function of the optimization model.

[0044] Generally, there are many indicators that represent economic and social scale, such as population, industrial output, and agricultural output. Therefore, generally speaking, a set of indicators is used to represent water resource carrying capacity. Here, we list a few representative indicators, such as total population (P), total industrial and agricultural output or GDP (A), and total urban area (S). Of course, other indicators are possible and can be selected based on the specific problem. If multiple indicators are used to represent the final result of water resource carrying capacity, it is a multi-objective model; if a single indicator is used to represent the final result of water resource carrying capacity, it is a single-objective model. In existing case studies, people often use a single indicator, "total population," to represent water resource carrying capacity. The objective function can be expressed as: MAX(P, A, S...), where P represents total population, A represents total industrial and agricultural output or GDP, and S represents total urban area. In the PSO-COIM model, adopting a single objective function based on population is feasible because the model includes the "internal constraint equation of the economic and social system" as a constraint equation. This equation can express the quantitative relationship between key economic and social indicators. Once the maximum population is determined, other economic and social indicators, such as industrial and agricultural output, can be calculated using this constraint equation. It should also be noted that the objective function varies with spatial units and can be the total value of the study area or the sum of the values of each spatial unit. In short, the choice depends on the specific situation.

[0045] (2) Meteorological data output

[0046] One of the main contributions of this invention to water resource carrying capacity calculation is its consideration of the evolution of basin or regional water resources under climate change scenarios, and the scale of their impact on economic and social support. Therefore, the impact of climate change needs to be considered in dynamic water resource carrying capacity models. Since climate change research itself is a complex academic issue, this invention does not focus on climate change itself. Therefore, the PSO-COIM model directly references currently widely recognized climate model models as constraints within the PSO-COIM model and as inputs to the terrestrial water resource system, allowing for dynamic representation of the impacts of different climate scenarios. Whenever the climate model or its output changes, the response of the terrestrial water resource system can easily change accordingly. Therefore, this simplified approach not only characterizes the dynamic characteristics of climate change but also allows for the flexible application of the latest research findings in climate modeling. The climate model output module is collectively referred to as Sub-Mod (RCP).

[0047] (3) Establishing the input-output relationship between meteorological factors and land surface water resources system

[0048] The output of the climate model output module is a series of meteorological factors (such as precipitation and temperature) at different temporal and spatial scales. These meteorological factors are precisely the driving indicators of changes in the terrestrial water resource system. Changes in meteorological factors drive changes in key water resource system indicators (such as runoff and water resources). Therefore, it is necessary to establish an input-output relationship between meteorological factors and the terrestrial water resource system to truly quantitatively reflect the changes in water resource carrying capacity driven by changes in climate model output. In other words, it is necessary to construct a sub-model of the input-output relationship between meteorological factors and the terrestrial water resource system, denoted as Sub-Mod(RCP-Q).

[0049] A wealth of research literature explores related research, particularly approaches based on coupling distributed hydrological and climate models. While these approaches offer significant spatial simulation capabilities, they often encounter limitations in data and computational model application, particularly scaling issues, which have yet to be effectively addressed. Furthermore, this paper does not focus on in-depth research on these models. Therefore, a simple input-output statistical relationship model approach is proposed, which has demonstrated promising results in practical applications.

[0050] (4) Simulating water resource cycle transformation relationships

[0051] The water resource cycle transformation equation primarily expresses the interrelationships among various water resource elements within the water resource system. These elements can influence and restrict each other, as well as transform into each other, resulting in a complex interaction. The mutual transformations among these various water resource elements are encompassed within both the natural and social water cycles, forming a complex "natural-social" water cycle.

[0052] In specific problems, the transformation relationship between the various elements of the water resource system is generally quantitatively described by establishing a typical watershed water resource transformation relationship model. Currently, distributed hydrological models with certain physical mechanisms are often used to quantitatively describe water resource transformation relationships. However, since distributed hydrological models require a lot of data, the reliability of calculation and simulation results in data-scarce areas is often difficult to guarantee. To this end, the present invention attempts to take a different approach and seek a relatively simple method. By establishing a water balance model for each calculation unit based on the water balance principle, the whole is divided into parts, and then from the parts to the whole, a water resource transformation relationship model for the entire watershed is constructed.

[0053] For the i-th calculation unit, according to the water balance principle, the water balance model equation of the calculation unit can be written as:

[0054] Q RI =Q RO +Q RD +Q E +Q g +QΔ +ΔV

[0055] Where: Q RI , Q RO , Q g , Q E , Q RD are unit inflow, outflow, groundwater exchange, surface evaporation, and total water diversion respectively; Q Δ is the algebraic sum of the water volume entering and leaving the unit through other channels; ΔV is the change in unit water storage.

[0056] In practical applications, for the convenience of calculation, existing hydrological data are often used as the inflow Q of the calculation unit. RI and outflow Q RO This requires a premise, that is, the inflow and outflow sections of the calculation unit are preferably selected at the location of the national basic hydrological station. The national basic hydrological station generally has a long series of hydrological data, which can make the inflow Q of the calculation unit RI , outflow Q RO The other unknown water quantities can be solved by using the approximate functional relationship expressions of the known variables, and the unknown parameters in the functional relationship expressions can be inversely solved using the hydrological system identification theory method.

[0057] From its formation, withdrawal, evaporation, and return to the water body, water resources undergo a complex cycle of transformation, encompassing both natural and social water cycles. Therefore, when quantifying water resource carrying capacity, it is necessary to first establish a water resource cycle transformation equation that fully reflects this "natural-social" water cycle. This serves as the fundamental equation for calculating water resource carrying capacity. Due to the diverse nature of regions, multiple units, and varying amounts of water resources, the equation established may not be a single one, but rather a set of water resource cycle transformation equations. Of course, the set of equations established may differ for different situations.

[0058]

[0059] Where P, E, and W cons are precipitation, total evaporation, and total water consumption; ΔV 地下水 , ΔV 地表水 are the changes in water storage capacity of groundwater and surface water respectively; Q 入 , Q 出 are the amount of water flowing into and out of the area respectively; Q Can , Q Self , Q In , Q again represents the available water resources, the source water in the area, the water volume transferred from outside the area, and the wastewater reuse volume; a represents the water resource utilization coefficient; W indu 、Warg 、W Life 、W other 、W Ret represents industrial water consumption, agricultural water consumption, domestic water consumption, other water consumption and return water; ΔW is the remaining available water resources; E I 、E A 、E L are the water consumption of industry, agriculture and domestic use respectively; Q 调 is the total amount of water transferred from outside the area; Q Ret is the water content, C Ret The amount of pollutants.

[0060] (5) Simulating pollutant cycle transformation equations

[0061] Pollutants undergo a complex cycle of transformation from generation and release to water bodies and decomposition. Pollutant emissions are primarily attributed to the impact of human activities. Therefore, water resource carrying capacity calculation models need to include equations describing the pollutant cycle and transformation to quantitatively express the transformation relationship between natural water quality and human activities.

[0062] The pollutant cycle transformation equations that need to be established include those for calculating pollutant emissions and water quality simulation, which can fully express the generation and migration processes of pollutants. Therefore, the pollutant cycle transformation equations to be established may not be just one, but a set of equations.

[0063] The water quality issue encountered in the study was primarily salinity, so the water quality model established was relatively simple. It primarily referenced the pollutant mass balance (or conservation) equation for a typical single drainage channel with a sewage outlet. The equations are as follows:

[0064]

[0065] Where W WD is the total amount of a pollutant discharged after sewage treatment (kg); is the sewage discharge volume of the first calculation unit (m 3 ); is the concentration of a pollutant after sewage treatment in the first calculation unit (g / L); μ i is the sewage treatment rate of the i-th calculation unit; is the comprehensive concentration of a pollutant in the sewage of the i-th calculation unit (g / L); Q1 is the amount of water discharged from the upstream river (m 3 );Q m is the runoff volume of the control section (m 3 ); C1 is the concentration of a pollutant in the upstream section (g / L); C m is the concentration in the control section (g / L); β is the comprehensive reduction rate of pollutants.

[0066] (6) Simulating the internal constraints of the economic and social system

[0067] In an economic and social system, individual indicators are not completely isolated; most are interconnected, even mutually constraining. For example, a growing population requires food, which necessitates agricultural development. Improving living standards requires industrial development. Therefore, population size is positively correlated with industrial and agricultural development. Conversely, a growing population consumes more resources, leading to increased pollutant emissions. Industrial and agricultural development also increase resource consumption. Therefore, these indicators constrain each other, forming a negative correlation. Therefore, based on the consideration that the economic and social system is a mutually constraining whole, for the sake of convenience, this paper presents a new method for the purpose of simplifying the presentation.

[0068] Here, we simply list a set of equations established for general areas of industrial and agricultural development for reference only.

[0069]

[0070] Where Y I1 、Y I2 are the lower and upper limits of per capita industrial output value respectively; Y A1 、Y A2 are the lower and upper limits of per capita agricultural output value; Y Indu 、Y Arg , P are industrial output value, agricultural output value, and total population respectively. The upper and lower limits of different per capita output values can be determined by using the method of floating the predicted calculated value up and down by a certain proportion, or by directly using the calculated value of the predicted value, that is, Y I1 =Y I2 , Y A1 =Y A2 In the application examples, the predicted values of various indicators are used to calculate the results for different years in the future.

[0071] (7) Determine water resource carrying capacity constraints

[0072] To ensure sustainable economic and social development and the sustainable use of water resources in a region or river basin, the actual scale of the economy and society must be less than or equal to the economic and social scale that the water resources system can support. From the perspective of water resources, this requires that the total amount of utilized water resources be less than or equal to the amount of available water resources. If we use the "Water Resources Carrying Capacity Index I" to express the degree to which water resources have already borne the burden of economic and social development, we can quantitatively express the above argument as follows: I≤1, where W Lost Indicates actual water consumption, Q Canrepresents the amount of water resources that can be carried, and I represents the degree of dynamic carrying capacity of water resources. This is one of the basic equations for calculating the dynamic carrying capacity of water resources and is also one of its basic requirements.

[0073] (8) Determine ecological and environmental control target constraints

[0074] Analyzing the concept and connotation of dynamic water resource carrying capacity, one of its key objectives is to maintain a virtuous cycle in the ecosystem. Therefore, the model must include an equation that represents this objective. Due to the complexity of the problem, the model often requires more than just one equation, but rather a set of equations.

[0075] Considering the total amount of pollutants, pollutant concentration, and river ecological base flow control, the following equation can be established:

[0076]

[0077] Where Q m 、C m They are respectively the runoff of the control section (m 3 ), concentration (g / L); W s is the target value for total pollutant quantity control (kg); C s is the target value of the concentration in the control section (g / L); Q s is the minimum target value for river runoff control (m 3 ).

[0078] (9) Supplement other constraints

[0079] Generally speaking, a water resource optimization model has other constraints besides the above ones. For example, the non-negativity constraint of variables; water transmission and supply capacity constraints; and the minimum value constraint of certain economic and social indicators (such as per capita water consumption).

[0080] By analyzing water resource supply and demand, as well as environmental factors, a dynamic water resource carrying capacity model is established. This model comprehensively considers factors such as precipitation, water volume in the river basin, water consumption, population density, and economic activities, and is dynamically adjusted through multiple regression analysis or machine learning algorithms.

[0081] Introduction of dynamic change mechanism

[0082] Based on the water resources carrying capacity assessment model, the time series analysis method is added to consider the changing patterns of water resources supply and demand in different time periods, and combined with factors such as climate change and social and economic development, the model parameters are dynamically adjusted to evaluate the changes in water resources carrying capacity in real time.

[0083] Data collection and processing

[0084] Using remote sensing technology, sensor networks, weather station data, and water resources department data, we dynamically monitor water supply and demand. Incorporating big data processing technology, we clean, analyze, and model massive amounts of water resources data to ensure real-time and accuracy.

[0085] Model application and prediction

[0086] Based on the established dynamic water resource carrying capacity model, simulation and forecasting can provide future trends in water resource carrying capacity, providing support for decision makers. The model's forecast results can help governments and relevant departments optimize water resource allocation and formulate reasonable water resource management policies.

[0087] Model validation and optimization

[0088] The accuracy and reliability of the model are verified through data from actual cases, and the model is further optimized. Model parameters are regularly updated and reverse-validated to improve the adaptability and flexibility of the model.

[0089] A specific example is introduced below to further illustrate the method in this embodiment.

[0090] Division of regional computing units

[0091] The Yellow River water diversion area in Henan Province covers most of the northern, western and eastern parts of Henan Province, including 14 prefecture-level cities: Zhengzhou, Kaifeng, Luoyang, Anyang, Hebi, Xinxiang, Jiaozuo, Puyang, Sanmenxia, Shangqiu, Zhoukou, Pingdingshan, Xuchang and Jiyuan, with a total area of 102,300 km 2 (accounting for 61.3% of the province's area), with an average annual water resource of 17.1 billion m 3 The receiving area lies in the transition zone between my country's second and third terraces, characterized by complex geological conditions, a complete stratigraphic system, and diverse tectonic forms. The terrain is high in the west and low in the east, with complex and diverse landforms, ranging from low and medium mountains and hills to plains, and numerous water systems. For ease of calculation, the Yellow River diversion receiving area in Henan Province was divided into 14 calculation units based on administrative divisions.

[0092] Building a model

[0093] The calculation process is mathematically modeled and programmed using MATLAB language.

[0094] Collect data and calculate:

[0095] The data indicators are brought into the PSO-COIM model for calculation, and the typical annual dynamic carrying capacity of water resources in the Yellow River diversion receiving area in Henan Province is shown in the following table.

[0096] Table 1 Results of dynamic carrying capacity of water resources in the Yellow River water receiving areas in Henan Province

[0097]

[0098]

[0099] The water resource carrying capacity of many areas in the Yellow River water diversion zone in Henan Province significantly exceeds the actual water supply. This is particularly true in cities like Anyang and Puyang, where the carrying capacity exceeds 2, indicating that the actual population far exceeds what the water resources can support, leading to severe water shortages. Areas like Kaifeng and Xinxiang also have carrying capacity ratios between 1.5 and 2.1, indicating significant water resource stress. Meanwhile, areas like Zhengzhou, Xuchang, and Jiyuan have relatively low carrying capacity ratios, with water resources barely sufficient to meet current population needs. Overall, the carrying capacity ratio in Henan Province's Yellow River water diversion zone is 1.38, indicating that the actual population exceeds the water resource carrying capacity by 38%, creating a significant imbalance between water supply and demand. Therefore, effective water conservation measures and the rational allocation of water resources are necessary in areas facing water shortages to ensure sustainable development.

[0100] A water resources dynamic carrying capacity evaluation system, comprising:

[0101] The model building module uses the maximum economic and social scale function as the objective function and the input-output relationship between climate patterns, meteorological factors and land surface water resources system, water resources cycle transformation relationship equation, pollutant cycle transformation relationship equation, economic and social system internal constraint equation, water resources carrying index constraint equation, and ecological and environmental control target constraint equation as constraints to establish a water resources dynamic carrying capacity model;

[0102] The carrying capacity evaluation module predicts the changing trend of water resource carrying capacity in the future based on the established water resource dynamic carrying capacity model.

[0103] The various embodiments in this specification are described in a progressive manner, with each embodiment focusing on the differences from other embodiments. Reference can be made to the common and similar parts between the various embodiments. For the devices disclosed in the embodiments, since they correspond to the methods disclosed in the embodiments, the description is relatively simple, and the relevant parts can be referred to the method description.

[0104] The above description of the disclosed embodiments is intended to enable one skilled in the art to implement or use the present invention. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to one skilled in the art, and the general principles defined herein may be implemented in other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the present invention. Therefore, the present invention is not limited to the embodiments shown herein but is intended to conform to the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating the dynamic carrying capacity of water resources, characterized in that: include: Taking the maximum function of economic and social scale as the objective function, and taking the climate model, the input-output relationship between meteorological factors and the land surface water resource system, the water resource cycle transformation relationship equation, the pollutant cycle transformation relationship equation, the internal constraint equation of the economic and social system, the water resource carrying index constraint equation, and the ecological and environmental control target constraint equation as constraints, a water resource dynamic carrying capacity model is established; Based on the established water resources dynamic carrying capacity model, the changing trend of water resources carrying capacity in the future is predicted.

2. A method for evaluating the dynamic carrying capacity of water resources according to claim 1, characterized in that: The objective function is expressed as follows: Max(P, A, S, ...) In the formula, P represents the total population, A represents the total industrial and agricultural output value or GDP, and S represents the total area of cities and towns.

3. A method for evaluating the dynamic carrying capacity of water resources according to claim 1, characterized in that: The input-output relationship between the meteorological factors and the land surface water resources system is expressed as: Sub Mod(RCP-Q) Among them, Sub Mod (RCP) represents the meteorological factor climate output module, and Sub Mod (Q) represents the land surface water resources system input module.

4. A method for evaluating the dynamic carrying capacity of water resources according to claim 1, characterized in that: The water resource cycle transformation equation is expressed as: W Ret =C Ret +Q Ret (Calculation equation of regression quantity after water resource utilization) Where P, E, and W cons are precipitation, total evaporation, and total water consumption; ΔV 地下水 , ΔV 地表水 are the changes in water storage capacity of groundwater and surface water respectively; Q 入 , Q 出 are the amount of water flowing into and out of the area respectively; Q Can , Q Self , Q In , Q again represents the available water resources, the source water in the area, the water volume transferred from outside the area, and the wastewater reuse volume; a represents the water resource utilization coefficient; W indu 、W arg 、W Life 、W other 、W Ret represents industrial water consumption, agricultural water consumption, domestic water consumption, other water consumption and return water; ΔW is the remaining available water resources; E I 、E A 、E L are the water consumption of industry, agriculture and domestic use respectively; Q 调 is the total amount of water transferred from outside the area; Q Ret is the water content, C Ret The amount of pollutants.

5. A method for evaluating the dynamic carrying capacity of water resources according to claim 1, characterized in that: The pollutant cycle transformation relationship equation is expressed as: Where W WD is the total amount of a pollutant discharged after sewage treatment (kg); is the sewage discharge volume of the first calculation unit (m 3 ); is the concentration of a pollutant after sewage treatment in the first calculation unit (g / L); μ i is the sewage treatment rate of the i-th calculation unit; is the comprehensive concentration of a pollutant in the sewage of the i-th calculation unit (g / L); Q1 is the amount of water discharged from the upstream river (m 3 );Q m is the runoff volume of the control section (m 3 ); C1 is the concentration of a pollutant in the upstream section (g / L); C m is the concentration in the control section (g / L); β is the comprehensive reduction rate of pollutants.

6. A method for evaluating the dynamic carrying capacity of water resources according to claim 1, characterized in that: The internal constraint equation of the economic and social system is expressed as: Where Y I1 、Y I2 are the lower and upper limits of per capita industrial output value respectively; Y A1 、Y A2 are the lower and upper limits of per capita agricultural output value; Y Indu 、Y Arg , P are industrial output value, agricultural output value and total population respectively.

7. A method for evaluating the dynamic carrying capacity of water resources according to claim 1, characterized in that: The water resources carrying index constraint equation is expressed as: I≤1 Where W Lost Indicates actual water consumption, Q Can It represents the carrying capacity of water resources, and I represents the dynamic carrying capacity of water resources.

8. A method for evaluating the dynamic carrying capacity of water resources according to claim 1, characterized in that: The ecological and environmental control objective constraint equation is expressed as: Where Q m 、C m They are respectively the runoff of the control section (m 3 ), concentration (g / L); W s is the target value for total pollutant quantity control (kg); C s is the target value of the concentration in the control section (g / L); Q s is the minimum target value for river runoff control (m 3 ).

9. A water resources dynamic carrying capacity evaluation system, characterized in that: A method for evaluating the dynamic carrying capacity of water resources according to any one of claims 1 to 8 is applied, comprising: The model building module uses the maximum economic and social scale function as the objective function and the input-output relationship between climate patterns, meteorological factors and land surface water resources system, water resources cycle transformation relationship equation, pollutant cycle transformation relationship equation, economic and social system internal constraint equation, water resources carrying index constraint equation, and ecological and environmental control target constraint equation as constraints to establish a water resources dynamic carrying capacity model; The carrying capacity evaluation module predicts the changing trend of water resource carrying capacity in the future based on the established water resource dynamic carrying capacity model.

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