High-voltage cable system operation full life cycle risk assessment method and related device

Abstract

The invention discloses a high-voltage cable system operation full life cycle risk assessment method and a related device. The method comprises the following steps: dividing the high-voltage cable system operation full life cycle; constructing an index system of the high-voltage cable system for each life cycle; defining a risk index calculation method of the whole life cycle of the operation of the high-voltage cable system based on the index system; determining an index weight coefficient of the risk index by adopting a fuzzy hierarchy evaluation method based on the risk index; and calculating a risk evaluation value of each life cycle of the operation of the high-voltage cable system based on the index weight coefficient, and determining the risk of the whole life cycle of the operation of the high-voltage cable system according to the risk evaluation value. According to the invention, the risk of each part in the life cycle can be analyzed according to the historical fault data of the cable system in different life cycles, thereby improving the capability and reliability of avoiding the operation risk of the cable system, and assisting business personnel to better identify the risk existing in the whole life cycle of the cable system.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of cable system risk assessment, and in particular to a method and related devices for risk assessment of the entire life cycle of operation of a high-voltage cable system. Background Art

[0002] High-voltage cables are a vital component of the power system, used for the efficient transmission and distribution of electrical energy. The overall reliability of the high-voltage cable system is closely related to the stability of the power system. High-voltage cable systems primarily consist of the cable body, cable accessories, cable terminals, and grounding systems. These components work together to ensure the safe and efficient transmission of power through the cables. The life cycle of a high-voltage cable system is typically divided into the early failure phase, the steady-state failure phase, and the aging failure phase. Each phase of the life cycle corresponds to different risks, and each risk is affected by physical factors such as thermal damage, external damage, and natural loss. Currently, there is no method for comprehensively considering the components of a high-voltage cable system and the various risk types throughout its life cycle to accurately assess the risks of a high-voltage cable system throughout its life cycle. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop a high-voltage cable system life cycle risk assessment method and system that can assess the risks present in the cable system life cycle based on cable-related maintenance and operation data, providing business personnel with a basis for risk control. Summary of the Invention

[0003] The present invention provides a method and related devices for assessing the risks of a high-voltage cable system throughout its entire life cycle, which are used to analyze the risks of various components in the cable system according to historical fault data at different life cycles, thereby improving the cable system's ability to avoid operational risks, improving the reliability of the cable system's operation, and assisting business personnel in better identifying risks throughout the cable system's entire life cycle.

[0004] In view of this, a first aspect of the present invention provides a method for risk assessment of the entire life cycle of a high-voltage cable system, the method comprising:

[0005] According to the time boundary of the life cycle stage and the failure rate of the high-voltage cable system, the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation is divided into several different life cycles;

[0006] For each of the life cycles, an indicator system for the high-voltage cable system is constructed according to the risk types in the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation;

[0007] Based on the indicator system, a method for calculating risk indicators for the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation is defined, and used to calculate the risk indicators for each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation;

[0008] Based on the risk indicators, a fuzzy hierarchical evaluation method is used to determine the indicator weight coefficient of the risk indicators;

[0009] The risk evaluation values of each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation are calculated based on the indicator weight coefficients, and the risk of the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation is determined according to the risk evaluation values.

[0010] Optionally, the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation is divided into several different life cycles according to the life cycle stage time boundaries and the high-voltage cable system failure rate, including:

[0011] According to the time boundaries of the life cycle stages and the failure rate of the high-voltage cable system, the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system is divided into early, middle and late stages, wherein the early stage corresponds to the early failure stage of the high-voltage cable system, the middle stage corresponds to the accidental failure stage of the high-voltage cable system, and the late stage corresponds to the loss failure stage of the high-voltage cable system.

[0012] Optionally, for each of the life cycles, an indicator system for the high-voltage cable system is constructed according to different risk types in the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system, including:

[0013] For each of the life cycles, an indicator system for the high-voltage cable system is constructed according to the target layer, the criterion layer and the factor layer according to the risk types in the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation;

[0014] Wherein, the target layer is the risks of various life cycles of high voltage cable system operation;

[0015] The criterion layer is the risk assessment index of each component in the operation of the high-voltage cable system, including: cable body risk, cable accessory risk, cable terminal risk and cable grounding system risk;

[0016] The factor layer is the risk factor assessment index of each component in the operation of the high-voltage cable system, including: construction and installation, product quality, external force damage and operation aging;

[0017] Furthermore, the risk assessment indicators in the criterion layer include all the risk factor assessment indicators.

[0018] Optionally, the risk indicator calculation method for the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation based on the indicator system is defined, including:

[0019] The risk index calculation methods for the cable body risk, the cable accessory risk, the cable terminal risk and the cable grounding system risk of the quasi-measurement layer in the index system are defined respectively.

[0020] Optionally, the calculation method definition of each indicator in the cable body risk includes:

[0021] The construction and installation risk index of the cable body is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by construction and installation to the total number of cable body failures;

[0022] The product quality risk of the cable itself is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by product quality to the total number of cable failures;

[0023] The risk of external force damage to the cable body is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by external force damage to the total number of cable body failures;

[0024] The operational aging risk of the cable itself is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by operational aging to the total number of cable failures.

[0025] The calculation methods for various indicators in the cable accessories risk include:

[0026] The construction and installation risk index of cable accessories is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by construction and installation to the total number of cable accessory failures;

[0027] The product quality risk of cable accessories is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by product quality to the total number of cable accessory failures;

[0028] The risk of external force damage to cable accessories is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by external force damage to the total number of cable accessory failures;

[0029] The operational aging risk of cable accessories is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by operational aging to the total number of cable accessory failures;

[0030] The calculation methods for various indicators in the cable terminal risk include:

[0031] The construction and installation risk index of the cable terminal is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by construction and installation to the total number of cable terminal failures;

[0032] The product quality risk of cable terminals is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by product quality to the total number of cable terminal failures;

[0033] The risk of external force damage to the cable terminal is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by external force damage to the total number of cable terminal failures;

[0034] The operational aging risk of cable terminals is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by operational aging to the total number of cable terminal failures;

[0035] The calculation methods for various indicators of cable grounding system risk include:

[0036] The construction and installation risk index of the cable grounding system is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by construction and installation to the total number of failures of the cable grounding system;

[0037] The product quality risk of the cable grounding system is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by product quality to the total number of failures of the cable grounding system;

[0038] The risk of external force damage to the cable grounding system is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by external force damage to the total number of failures in the cable grounding system;

[0039] The operational aging risk of the cable grounding system is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by operational aging to the total number of failures of the cable grounding system.

[0040] Optionally, the step of determining the indicator weight coefficient of the risk indicator based on the risk indicator by using a fuzzy hierarchical evaluation method includes:

[0041] Based on the risk index, a fuzzy hierarchical evaluation method is used to calculate the weight vector of the fuzzy judgment mean of the index at the factor layer, and an entropy weight method is used to calculate the weight coefficient of the index at the criterion layer.

[0042] Optionally, calculating the risk evaluation value of each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation based on the indicator weight coefficient, and determining the risk of the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation according to the risk evaluation value, includes:

[0043] The risk evaluation value of each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation is calculated based on the indicator weight coefficient, and the failure rate of each life cycle is obtained based on the historical failure rate data. The risk of the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation is determined based on the risk evaluation value and the failure rate of each life cycle.

[0044] A second aspect of the present invention provides a high-voltage cable system operation life cycle risk assessment system, the system comprising:

[0045] A division unit is used to divide the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system into several different life cycles according to the time boundaries of the life cycle stages and the failure rate of the high-voltage cable system;

[0046] A construction unit, configured to construct an indicator system for the high-voltage cable system according to the risk types in the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation for each of the life cycles;

[0047] A first calculation unit is used to define a risk index calculation method for the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation based on the index system, and to calculate the risk index of each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation;

[0048] A second calculation unit is used to determine the indicator weight coefficient of the risk indicator based on the risk indicator using a fuzzy hierarchical evaluation method;

[0049] The third calculation unit is used to calculate the risk evaluation value of each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation based on the indicator weight coefficient, and determine the risk of the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation according to the risk evaluation value.

[0050] A third aspect of the present invention provides a device for assessing the risk of a high-voltage cable system throughout its entire life cycle, the device comprising a processor and a memory.

[0051] The memory is used to store program code and transmit the program code to the processor;

[0052] The processor is used to execute the steps of the high-voltage cable system operation life cycle risk assessment method as described in the first aspect according to the instructions in the program code.

[0053] A fourth aspect of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium for storing program code, wherein the program code is used to execute the method for risk assessment of the entire life cycle of operation of a high-voltage cable system as described in the first aspect.

[0054] It can be seen from the above technical solutions that the present invention has the following advantages:

[0055] The embodiment of the present invention provides a method for assessing the risk of a high-voltage cable system during its entire life cycle. The method first divides the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system into several different life cycles. Then, an index system for the high-voltage cable system is constructed for each life cycle according to the risk type in the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system. Then, a method for calculating the risk index of the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system is defined based on the index system, and used to calculate the risk index of each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system. Then, based on the risk index, a fuzzy hierarchical evaluation method is used to determine the index weight coefficient of the risk index. Finally, a risk evaluation value of each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system is calculated based on the index weight coefficient, and the risk of the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system is determined based on the risk evaluation value. The present invention can analyze the risk size of each component in the life cycle based on the historical fault data of the cable system in different life cycles, thereby improving the risk avoidance capability of the cable system operation, improving the reliability of the cable system operation, and assisting business personnel to better identify the risks existing in the entire life cycle of the cable system. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0056] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying any creative work.

[0057] Figure 1 A flowchart of a method for risk assessment of the entire life cycle of a high-voltage cable system operation provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0058] Figure 2 A diagram showing the composition of a risk assessment index system for the entire life cycle of a high-voltage cable system provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0059] Figure 3 A schematic structural diagram of a high-voltage cable system operation life cycle risk assessment system provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0060] In order to make the purpose, features, and advantages of the present invention more obvious and easy to understand, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the embodiments described below are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0061] See also Figure 1 , an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for risk assessment of the entire life cycle of a high-voltage cable system, comprising:

[0062] Step 101: Divide the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system into several different life cycles according to the time boundaries of the life cycle stages and the failure rate of the high-voltage cable system.

[0063] It's important to note that, for example, the entire lifecycle of a high-voltage cable system can be divided into three phases: early, mid, and late. Each phase corresponds to the early failure, accidental failure, and wear-out failure stages of the high-voltage cable system, respectively. By breaking down the lifecycle of a high-voltage cable system into these three phases, it's possible to more accurately identify the risk factors that may be faced at each stage. In the early phase, the primary focus is on defects that may have been introduced during the design and manufacturing processes, which can lead to early failures. In the mid-term, or accidental failure phase, random failures are typically caused by changes in the operating environment, improper operation, or external factors. In the late phase, wear-out failures become the dominant cause, due to cable material aging, wear, and the accumulated fatigue effects of long-term operation. This categorization provides a clearer framework for subsequent risk assessments, enabling the development of targeted preventive and response measures.

[0064] Step 102: For each life cycle, an indicator system for the high-voltage cable system is constructed according to the risk types in the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system.

[0065] It should be noted that for different life cycle stages of the cable system, according to the risk types of the high-voltage cable system throughout its operation life cycle, an indicator system for the high-voltage cable system can be constructed at multiple levels. The indicator system is used to comprehensively reflect the risk status of the high-voltage cable system at different life cycle stages.

[0066] Step 103: Define a method for calculating risk indicators for the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system based on the indicator system, and use it to calculate risk indicators for each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system.

[0067] It is important to note that by defining a risk indicator calculation method for the entire life cycle of high-voltage cable systems, it is possible to quantitatively assess the risk level at each life cycle stage. Through continuous monitoring and analysis of risk indicators, potential safety hazards can be promptly identified, providing strong support for the implementation of preventive measures.

[0068] Step 104: Based on the risk indicators, a fuzzy hierarchical evaluation method is used to determine the indicator weight coefficient of the risk indicator.

[0069] It should be noted that the fuzzy hierarchical evaluation method (FHP) is a comprehensive evaluation technique that combines fuzzy theory and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). This method decomposes complex evaluation problems into multiple levels, each containing multiple evaluation factors. It then uses fuzzy mathematics to quantify these factors and determine their relative importance, known as the indicator weight coefficient. The FHP method can more scientifically and objectively reflect the importance of different risk indicators throughout the life cycle of high-voltage cable systems, providing a strong basis for subsequent risk assessment and decision-making.

[0070] Step 105: Calculate the risk evaluation value of each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation based on the indicator weight coefficient, and determine the risk of the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation according to the risk evaluation value.

[0071] It should be noted that the risk assessment value quantifies the risk level of a high-voltage cable system at each lifecycle stage. By combining risk indicators and corresponding indicator weighting coefficients, a risk assessment value for each lifecycle stage can be calculated. These risk assessment values reflect the potential risk during the operation of the high-voltage cable system. Based on the risk assessment value, it is possible to intuitively identify which stages of the high-voltage cable system's lifecycle present higher risks, thereby strengthening targeted monitoring and management to ensure the safe and stable operation of the high-voltage cable system.

[0072] In one embodiment, step 101 includes:

[0073] According to the time boundaries of the life cycle stages and the failure rate of the high-voltage cable system, the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system is divided into early, middle and late stages. The early stage corresponds to the early failure stage of the high-voltage cable system, the middle stage corresponds to the accidental failure stage of the high-voltage cable system, and the late stage corresponds to the loss failure stage of the high-voltage cable system.

[0074] It should be noted that the specific process includes: obtaining data such as the cable service life t and the average total operating time of the cable system T0, and setting the time basis for dividing the life cycle stages as T1 and T2. The life cycle stages are divided according to the functional relationship between the time boundary of the life cycle stage and the failure rate of the high-voltage cable system. When the subsequent operational time T0-t of the cable system at the time of risk assessment is within the range of [0, T1], it is the early failure stage; when t is within (T1, T2], it is the accidental failure stage; and when t is within (T2, ∞), it is the loss failure stage.

[0075] The formula for the failure rate p of the high-voltage cable system and the subsequent operational time T0-t of the cable system is as follows:

[0076]

[0077] T0 is the total time of normal operation of the cable system, and t is the subsequent operational time of the cable system at the time of risk assessment. for The probability density function of can be expressed by Weibull distribution according to the physical law of cable system reliability.

[0078]

[0079] Then its distribution function is:

[0080]

[0081] in, 、 is the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution function, which can be estimated using maximum likelihood. 、 value.

[0082] In one embodiment, step 102 includes:

[0083] For each life cycle, according to the risk types in the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system, an indicator system for the high-voltage cable system is constructed according to the target layer, criterion layer and factor layer; among them, the target layer is the risk of each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation; the criterion layer is the risk assessment index of each component in the operation of the high-voltage cable system, including: cable body risk, cable accessory risk, cable terminal risk and cable grounding system risk; the factor layer is the risk factor assessment index of each component in the operation of the high-voltage cable system, including: construction and installation, product quality, external force damage and operation aging; and the risk assessment indicators in the criterion layer include all risk factor assessment indicators.

[0084] It should be noted that this embodiment constructs a three-level indicator system for the operation risk of high-voltage cable systems based on the risk types of the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system, divided into target layer, criterion layer, and factor layer for different life cycle stages of the cable system. Figure 2 ,For the convenience of description, the target layer, criterion layer, and factor layer are described as the ,first level, second level, and third level respectively below.

[0085] in:

[0086] The first-level target layer is the risks in various life cycles of high-voltage cable system operation.

[0087] The second-level criterion layer is the risk assessment indicators of various components in the operation of the high-voltage cable system, including cable body risk, cable accessory risk, cable terminal risk, and cable grounding system risk.

[0088] The third-level factor layer is the risk factor assessment index of each component in the operation of the cable system. The risk score is calculated based on the calculation results of the risk factor assessment index and the numerical range of the characteristic quantity.

[0089] Among them, each level of standards includes four factors: construction and installation, product quality, external force damage, and operational aging.

[0090] In one embodiment, step 103 includes:

[0091] The risk index calculation methods for the cable body risk, cable accessories risk, cable terminal risk and cable grounding system risk in the quasi-measurement layer of the index system are defined respectively, and used to calculate the risk indicators of each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation.

[0092] It should be noted that, from the above step 101, it can be seen that t represents the service life of the cable. At the beginning of the life cycle, T0-t is in the range of [0, T1], in the middle of the life cycle, T0-t is in the range of (T1, T2], and at the end of the life cycle, T0-t is in the range of (T2, ∞). For the cable body, accessories, terminals, and grounding system, the risk index is calculated by counting the frequency of cable failures caused by each component. As the number of failure data increases, the frequency calculation result will gradually approach the failure probability. The specific definition is as follows:

[0093] in:

[0094] 1. The calculation methods of various indicators in the cable body risk include:

[0095] 1.1 The construction and installation risk index of the cable body is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by construction and installation to the total number of cable body failures;

[0096] It should be noted that the specific formula is as follows:

[0097]

[0098] in, is the cable body construction and installation risk index when the cable has been in service for t years, is the number of cable failures caused by cable installation during the cable's service life t. The total number of cable body failures when the cable is in service for t years.

[0099] 1.2 The product quality risk of the cable body is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by product quality to the total number of cable body failures;

[0100] It should be noted that the specific formula is as follows:

[0101]

[0102] in, is the product quality risk index of the cable body when the cable has been in service for t years, The number of cable failures caused by the cable's inherent product quality during the cable's service life t.

[0103] 1.3 The risk of external force damage to the cable body is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by external force damage to the total number of cable body failures;

[0104] It should be noted that the specific formula is as follows:

[0105]

[0106] in, is the external force damage risk index of the cable body when the cable has been in service for t years, The number of cable failures caused by external force damage to the cable body when the cable has been in service for t years.

[0107] 1.4 The operational aging risk of the cable itself is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by operational aging to the total number of cable failures;

[0108] It should be noted that the specific formula is as follows:

[0109]

[0110] in, is the aging risk index of the cable body when the cable has been in service for t years. The number of cable failures caused by aging of the cable itself when the cable has been in service for t years.

[0111] 2. The calculation methods for various indicators in cable accessories risk include:

[0112] 2.1 The construction and installation risk index of cable accessories is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by construction and installation to the total number of cable accessory failures;

[0113] It should be noted that the specific formula is as follows:

[0114]

[0115] in, is the construction and installation risk index of cable accessories when the cable has been in service for t years, is the number of cable failures caused by the construction and installation of cable accessories when the cable is in service for t years. The total number of cable accessory failures when the cable has been in service for t years.

[0116] 2.2 The product quality risk of cable accessories is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by product quality to the total number of cable accessory failures;

[0117] It should be noted that the specific formula is as follows:

[0118]

[0119] in, is the product quality risk indicator of cable accessories when the cable has been in service for t years. The number of cable failures caused by the quality of cable accessories when the cable has been in service for t years.

[0120] 2.3 The risk of external damage to cable accessories is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by external damage to the total number of cable accessory failures;

[0121] It should be noted that the specific formula is as follows:

[0122]

[0123] in, is the external force damage risk index of cable accessories when the cable has been in service for t years. The number of cable failures caused by external force damage to cable accessories when the cable has been in service for t years.

[0124] 2.4 The operational aging risk of cable accessories is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures due to operational aging to the total number of cable accessory failures;

[0125] It should be noted that the specific formula is as follows:

[0126]

[0127] in, is the aging risk index of cable accessories when the cable has been in service for t years, The number of cable failures caused by aging of cable accessories when the cable has been in service for t years.

[0128] 3. The calculation methods and definitions of various indicators in cable terminal risk include:

[0129] 3.1 The construction and installation risk index of cable terminals is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by construction and installation to the total number of cable terminal failures;

[0130] It should be noted that the specific formula is as follows:

[0131] 3.2 The product quality risk of cable terminals is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by product quality to the total number of cable terminal failures;

[0132] It should be noted that the specific formula is as follows:

[0133]

[0134] in, is the construction and installation risk index of the cable terminal when the cable has been in service for t years, is the number of cable failures caused by the cable terminal construction and installation when the cable has been in service for t years, is the total number of cable terminal failures when the cable has been in service for t years.

[0135] 3.3 The risk of external force damage to the cable terminal is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by external force damage to the total number of cable terminal failures;

[0136] It should be noted that the specific formula is as follows:

[0137]

[0138] in, is the external force damage risk index of the cable terminal when the cable has been in service for t years, The number of cable failures caused by external force damage to the cable terminal when the cable has been in service for t years.

[0139] 3.4 The operational aging risk of cable terminals is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by operational aging to the total number of cable terminal failures;

[0140] It should be noted that the specific formula is as follows:

[0141]

[0142] in, is the operational aging risk index of the cable terminal when the cable has been in service for t years, The number of cable failures caused by aging of the cable terminals when the cable has been in service for t years.

[0143] 4. The calculation methods and definitions of various indicators in the cable grounding system risk include:

[0144] 4.1 The construction and installation risk index of the cable grounding system is equal to the ratio of the number of cable faults caused by construction and installation to the total number of cable grounding system faults;

[0145] It should be noted that the specific formula is as follows:

[0146]

[0147] in, is the construction and installation risk index of the cable grounding system when the cable has been in service for t years. is the number of cable failures caused by the construction and installation of the cable grounding system when the cable has been in service for t years. is the total number of faults in the cable grounding system when the cable has been in service for t years.

[0148] 4.2 The product quality risk of the cable grounding system is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by product quality to the total number of failures of the cable grounding system;

[0149] It should be noted that the specific formula is as follows:

[0150]

[0151] in, is the product quality risk indicator of the cable grounding system when the cable has been in service for t years. The number of cable failures caused by the quality of the cable grounding system product when the cable has been in service for t years.

[0152] 4.3 The risk of external force damage to the cable grounding system is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by external force damage to the total number of failures in the cable grounding system;

[0153] It should be noted that the specific formula is as follows:

[0154]

[0155] in, is the external force damage risk index of the cable grounding system when the cable has been in service for t years. The number of cable failures caused by external force damage to the cable grounding system when the cable has been in service for t years.

[0156] 4.4 The operational aging risk of the cable grounding system is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by operational aging to the total number of failures of the cable grounding system.

[0157] It should be noted that the specific formula is as follows:

[0158]

[0159] in, is the operational aging risk index of the cable grounding system when the cable has been in service for t years, The number of cable failures caused by aging of the cable grounding system when the cable has been in service for t years.

[0160] In one embodiment, step 104 includes:

[0161] Based on the risk indicators, the fuzzy hierarchical evaluation method is used to calculate the weight vector of the fuzzy judgment mean of the indicators at the factor layer, and the entropy weight method is used to calculate the weight coefficient of the indicators at the criterion layer.

[0162] It should be noted that the fuzzy hierarchical evaluation method is used to calculate the weight vector of the fuzzy judgment mean of the indicators at the factor layer based on the risk indicators. The specific steps are as follows:

[0163] First, the evaluation index set is determined by the high-voltage cable system operation life cycle risk evaluation index system in step 103, and is set as , Represents the indicators of the risk assessment system for the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system. The evaluation set of each indicator is ,in Indicates high, relatively high, average, relatively low, and low impact, from which a judgment matrix for each indicator can be constructed .

[0164] Then select the membership function Measuring various indicators For the membership degree of the evaluation set E.

[0165] Then, according to the degree of membership of each indicator to the evaluation level , perform normalization processing to obtain the single factor evaluation matrix , where the matrix elements are :

[0166]

[0167] The weight vector is determined from this , perform comparative calculations on scales 1 to 5, and obtain the matrix , so the weight coefficient is calculated , and obtain the weight of the third-level indicator for the second-level indicator.

[0168]

[0169] Finally, the consistency index CI is calculated, and the consistency ratio CR is obtained according to the consistency judgment index RI. A consistency test is performed to determine whether the matrix is accepted.

[0170]

[0171]

[0172] Where n is the order of the judgment matrix, that is, the total number of indicators. RI is obtained through the consistency test indicator table. If CR<0.1 in the calculation result, it means that the consistency test has passed and the judgment matrix H is accepted; if CR>=0.1, the judgment matrix needs to be modified until the passing condition is met. When the consistency test passes, the weight vector of the fuzzy judgment mean of the third-level indicator can be calculated .

[0173] It should be noted that the entropy weight method is used to calculate the weight coefficient of the indicator at the criterion layer. The specific steps are as follows:

[0174] First, normalize the data. For the The first of the indicators The standardized form of the sample data.

[0175] For negative indicators: ; For positive indicators:

[0176] in, , ,.

[0177] From this calculation, we get Among the indicators The characteristic proportion of sample data : .

[0178] Secondly, calculate the information entropy of the jth indicator

[0179] ,

[0180] in, is the formula coefficient.

[0181] Calculate the first The weight of the indicator :

[0182]

[0183] Among them, N is the number of evaluation indicators, and the second-level indicator evaluation weight vector is obtained , in this embodiment, j=4.

[0184] In one embodiment, step 105 includes:

[0185] The risk assessment value of each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation is calculated based on the indicator weight coefficient, and the failure rate of each life cycle is obtained based on the historical failure rate data. The risk of the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation is determined based on the risk assessment value and failure rate of each life cycle.

[0186] It should be noted that, firstly, based on the weight of the risk assessment index of the high-voltage cable system operation life cycle in step 104, the weight vector of the evaluation index at each level is calculated. 、 , we can obtain the risk score evaluation values of the cable body, cable accessories, cable terminals, and wiring system, as well as the score evaluation results of the construction and installation risk index, product quality risk index, external force damage risk index, and operation aging risk index, so as to effectively and reasonably quantify the risks of the high-voltage cable system throughout its life cycle.

[0187] Specifically, the second-level indicator evaluation score is .

[0188] Represents the third-level indicator score vector, which is composed of the third-level indicator score composition; represents the third-level indicator weight vector, which is calculated by the above-mentioned fuzzy hierarchical analysis evaluation method; Indicates the calculated value of the third-level indicator, which is calculated by the indicator evaluation calculation method in step S3.

[0189] First-level indicator evaluation score ,Depend on get.

[0190] represents the second-level indicator weight vector, which is calculated by the above entropy weight method; It represents the evaluation score of the second-level indicators, which is obtained by weighted scoring of the third-level indicators.

[0191] Then, based on the historical failure rate data, the failure rates of each life cycle are 、 、 , the risk assessment values of each life cycle are obtained as follows: 、 、 , that is, income The life cycle risk of high voltage cable system is .

[0192] The embodiment of the present invention provides a method for assessing the risk of a high-voltage cable system during its entire life cycle. The method first divides the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system into several different life cycles. Then, an index system for the high-voltage cable system is constructed for each life cycle according to the risk type in the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system. Then, a method for calculating the risk index of the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system is defined based on the index system, and used to calculate the risk index of each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system. Then, based on the risk index, a fuzzy hierarchical evaluation method is used to determine the index weight coefficient of the risk index. Finally, a risk evaluation value of each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system is calculated based on the index weight coefficient, and the risk of the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system is determined based on the risk evaluation value. The present invention can analyze the risk size of each component in the life cycle based on the historical fault data of the cable system in different life cycles, thereby improving the risk avoidance capability of the cable system operation, improving the reliability of the cable system operation, and assisting business personnel to better identify the risks existing in the entire life cycle of the cable system.

[0193] The above is a high-voltage cable system operation life cycle risk assessment method provided in an embodiment of the present invention. The following is a high-voltage cable system operation life cycle risk assessment system provided in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0194] See also Figure 3, an embodiment of the present invention provides a high-voltage cable system operation life cycle risk assessment system, comprising:

[0195] The division unit 201 is used to divide the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system into several different life cycles according to the time boundaries of the life cycle stages and the failure rate of the high-voltage cable system.

[0196] The construction unit 202 is configured to construct an indicator system for the high-voltage cable system according to the risk types in the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation for each life cycle.

[0197] The first calculation unit 203 is used to define a risk index calculation method for the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system based on the index system, and to calculate the risk index of each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system.

[0198] The second calculation unit 204 is configured to determine the indicator weight coefficient of the risk indicator by using a fuzzy hierarchical evaluation method based on the risk indicator.

[0199] The third calculation unit 205 is used to calculate the risk evaluation value of each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation based on the indicator weight coefficient, and determine the risk of the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation according to the risk evaluation value.

[0200] The embodiment of the present invention provides a high-voltage cable system operation life cycle risk assessment system, which first divides the life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation into several different life cycles; then constructs an index system for the high-voltage cable system according to the risk type in the life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation; then defines a risk index calculation method for the life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation based on the index system, and uses it to calculate the risk index of each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation; then, based on the risk index, a fuzzy hierarchical evaluation method is used to determine the index weight coefficient of the risk index; finally, based on the index weight coefficient, the risk evaluation value of each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation is calculated, and the risk of the life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation is determined according to the risk evaluation value. The present invention can analyze the risk size of each component in the life cycle according to the historical fault data of different life cycles of the cable system, thereby improving the cable system operation risk avoidance capability, improving the reliability of the cable system operation, and assisting business personnel to better identify the risks existing in the life cycle of the cable system.

[0201] Furthermore, an embodiment of the present invention also provides a high-voltage cable system operation life cycle risk assessment device, the device including a processor and a memory:

[0202] The memory is used to store program code and transmit the program code to the processor;

[0203] The processor is used to execute the steps of the high-voltage cable system operation life cycle risk assessment method as described in the above method embodiment according to the instructions in the program code.

[0204] Furthermore, an embodiment of the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium, which is used to store program code, and the program code is used to execute the high-voltage cable system operation life cycle risk assessment method described in the above method embodiment.

[0205] Those skilled in the art will clearly understand that, for the convenience and brevity of description, the specific working processes of the systems, devices and units described above can refer to the corresponding processes in the aforementioned method embodiments and will not be repeated here.

[0206] In the several embodiments provided by the present invention, it should be understood that the disclosed systems, devices, and methods can be implemented in other ways. For example, the device embodiments described above are merely illustrative. For example, the division of units is merely a logical function division. In actual implementation, there may be other division methods, such as multiple units or components can be combined or integrated into another system, or some features can be ignored or not executed. In addition, the mutual coupling or direct coupling or communication connection shown or discussed can be through some interface, indirect coupling or communication connection of devices or units, which can be electrical, mechanical or other forms.

[0207] Units described as separate components may or may not be physically separate, and components shown as units may or may not be physical units, that is, they may be located in one place or distributed across multiple network units. Some or all of these units may be selected to achieve the purpose of this embodiment according to actual needs.

[0208] In addition, the functional units in the various embodiments of the present invention may be integrated into a single processing unit, each unit may exist physically separately, or two or more units may be integrated into a single unit. The aforementioned integrated units may be implemented in the form of hardware or software functional units.

[0209] If the integrated unit is implemented as a software functional unit and sold or used as an independent product, it can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present invention, or the portion that contributes to the prior art, or all or part of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product. This computer software product is stored in a storage medium and includes several instructions for causing a computer device (which can be a personal computer, server, or network device, etc.) to execute all or part of the steps of the various embodiments of the method of the present invention. The aforementioned storage medium includes various media that can store program code, such as USB flash drives, mobile hard drives, read-only memories (ROMs), random access memories (RAMs), magnetic disks, or optical disks.

[0210] The above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit the same. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or make equivalent replacements for some of the technical features therein. However, these modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the various embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for risk assessment of the entire life cycle of a high-voltage cable system, characterized in that: include: According to the time boundary of the life cycle stage and the failure rate of the high-voltage cable system, the whole life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation is divided into several different life cycles; For each of the life cycles, an indicator system for the high-voltage cable system is constructed according to the risk types in the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation; Based on the indicator system, a method for calculating risk indicators for the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation is defined, and used to calculate the risk indicators for each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation; Based on the risk indicators, a fuzzy hierarchical evaluation method is used to determine the indicator weight coefficient of the risk indicators; The risk evaluation values of each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation are calculated based on the indicator weight coefficients, and the risk of the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation is determined according to the risk evaluation values.

2. The method for risk assessment of the entire life cycle of high-voltage cable system operation according to claim 1 is characterized in that: According to the life cycle stage time boundary and the high-voltage cable system failure rate, the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation is divided into several different life cycles, including: According to the time boundaries of the life cycle stages and the failure rate of the high-voltage cable system, the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system is divided into early, middle and late stages, wherein the early stage corresponds to the early failure stage of the high-voltage cable system, the middle stage corresponds to the accidental failure stage of the high-voltage cable system, and the late stage corresponds to the loss failure stage of the high-voltage cable system.

3. The method for risk assessment of the entire life cycle of high-voltage cable system operation according to claim 1 is characterized in that: For each of the life cycles, an indicator system for the high-voltage cable system is constructed according to different risk types in the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system, including: For each of the life cycles, an indicator system for the high-voltage cable system is constructed according to the target layer, the criterion layer and the factor layer according to the risk types in the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation; Wherein, the target layer is the risks of various life cycles of high voltage cable system operation; The criterion layer is the risk assessment index of each component in the operation of the high-voltage cable system, including: cable body risk, cable accessory risk, cable terminal risk and cable grounding system risk; The factor layer is the risk factor assessment index of each component in the operation of the high-voltage cable system, including: construction and installation, product quality, external force damage and operation aging; Furthermore, the risk assessment indicators in the criterion layer include all the risk factor assessment indicators.

4. The method for risk assessment of the entire life cycle of high-voltage cable system operation according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The risk index calculation method for the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation based on the index system is defined, including: The risk index calculation methods for the cable body risk, the cable accessory risk, the cable terminal risk and the cable grounding system risk of the quasi-measurement layer in the index system are defined respectively.

5. The method for risk assessment of the entire life cycle of high-voltage cable system operation according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The calculation methods for the indicators of the cable body risk include: The construction and installation risk index of the cable body is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by construction and installation to the total number of cable body failures; The product quality risk of the cable itself is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by product quality to the total number of cable failures; The risk of external force damage to the cable body is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by external force damage to the total number of cable body failures; The operational aging risk of the cable itself is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by operational aging to the total number of cable failures. The calculation methods for various indicators in the cable accessories risk include: The construction and installation risk index of cable accessories is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by construction and installation to the total number of cable accessory failures; The product quality risk of cable accessories is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by product quality to the total number of cable accessory failures; The risk of external force damage to cable accessories is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by external force damage to the total number of cable accessory failures; The operational aging risk of cable accessories is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by operational aging to the total number of cable accessory failures; The calculation methods for various indicators in the cable terminal risk include: The construction and installation risk index of the cable terminal is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by construction and installation to the total number of cable terminal failures; The product quality risk of cable terminals is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by product quality to the total number of cable terminal failures; The risk of external force damage to the cable terminal is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by external force damage to the total number of cable terminal failures; The operational aging risk of cable terminals is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by operational aging to the total number of cable terminal failures; The calculation methods for various indicators of cable grounding system risk include: The construction and installation risk index of the cable grounding system is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by construction and installation to the total number of failures of the cable grounding system; The product quality risk of the cable grounding system is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by product quality to the total number of failures of the cable grounding system; The risk of external force damage to the cable grounding system is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by external force damage to the total number of failures in the cable grounding system; The operational aging risk of the cable grounding system is equal to the ratio of the number of cable failures caused by operational aging to the total number of failures of the cable grounding system.

6. The method for risk assessment of the entire life cycle of high-voltage cable system operation according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The method of determining the index weight coefficient of the risk index based on the risk index by using a fuzzy hierarchical evaluation method includes: Based on the risk index, a fuzzy hierarchical evaluation method is used to calculate the weight vector of the fuzzy judgment mean of the index at the factor layer, and an entropy weight method is used to calculate the weight coefficient of the index at the criterion layer.

7. The method for risk assessment of the entire life cycle of high-voltage cable system operation according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in that: The calculating of the risk evaluation value of each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation based on the indicator weight coefficient, and determining the risk of the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation according to the risk evaluation value, includes: The risk evaluation value of each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation is calculated based on the indicator weight coefficient, and the failure rate of each life cycle is obtained based on the historical failure rate data. The risk of the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation is determined based on the risk evaluation value and the failure rate of each life cycle.

8. A high-voltage cable system operation life cycle risk assessment system, characterized by: include: A division unit is used to divide the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system into several different life cycles according to the time boundary of the life cycle stage and the failure rate of the high-voltage cable system; A construction unit, configured to construct an indicator system for the high-voltage cable system according to the risk types in the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation for each of the life cycles; A first calculation unit is used to define a risk index calculation method for the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation based on the index system, and to calculate the risk index of each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation; A second calculation unit is used to determine the indicator weight coefficient of the risk indicator based on the risk indicator using a fuzzy hierarchical evaluation method; The third calculation unit is used to calculate the risk evaluation value of each life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation based on the indicator weight coefficient, and determine the risk of the entire life cycle of the high-voltage cable system operation according to the risk evaluation value.

9. A high-voltage cable system operation life cycle risk assessment device, characterized in that: The device includes a processor and a memory: The memory is used to store program code and transmit the program code to the processor; The processor is used to execute the high-voltage cable system operation life cycle risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 7 according to the instructions in the program code.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that The computer-readable storage medium is used to store program code, and the program code is used to execute the high-voltage cable system operation life cycle risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

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