Hydropower station slope landslide prediction method, equipment and medium

Abstract

The invention relates to a hydropower station slope landslide prediction method and device and a medium, and belongs to the technical field of hydropower station geological disaster prediction.The hydropower station slope landslide prediction method comprises the following steps that displacement data, pore water pressure head data and rainfall data of a hydropower station slope area are obtained; acquiring the displacement acceleration of the slope monitoring point based on the displacement data; determining the cohesive force and the internal friction angle of the slope rock-soil body based on the rainfall data, and obtaining the slope safety coefficient based on the cohesive force, the internal friction angle, the displacement acceleration and the pore water pressure head data; acquiring the landslide probability of the slope based on the slope safety coefficient and the displacement acceleration; acquiring a comprehensive early warning index value according to the landslide probability; and obtaining a regulation and control instruction value based on the comprehensive early warning index, and executing a corresponding slope landslide prevention regulation and control instruction according to the regulation and control instruction value. A traditional single parameter monitoring mode is broken through, three sets of core data including displacement, pore water pressure and rainfall are synchronously collected, and a three-dimensional data network for slope stability evaluation is constructed.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to a method, equipment and medium for predicting a slope landslide in a hydropower station, and belongs to the technical field of geological disaster prediction in hydropower stations. Background Art

[0002] The stability of hydropower station slopes is crucial to their safe operation. Slope landslides are a common geological disaster that can cause damage to hydropower station facilities, casualties, and huge economic losses. Therefore, accurately predicting slope landslides and taking effective preventive measures are important issues that must be addressed during the construction and operation of hydropower stations. Traditional methods typically focus only on single factors such as slope displacement or rainfall, ignoring the interactions between multiple factors. For example, rainfall not only affects the pore water pressure of the slope, but also changes the cohesion and internal friction angle of the rock and soil, which together affect the stability of the slope. Single-factor analysis cannot comprehensively assess the landslide risk of the slope, resulting in inaccurate prediction results.

[0003] Existing technologies often analyze static data and are unable to reflect the stability of dynamically changing slopes in real time. Slope parameters such as displacement acceleration and pore water pressure head vary continuously over time, and traditional methods struggle to capture these dynamic changes, preventing timely warning signals. Summary of the Invention

[0004] In order to solve the above problems existing in the prior art, the present invention proposes a method, equipment and medium for predicting slope landslides in a hydropower station.

[0005] The technical solutions of the present invention are as follows:

[0006] In one aspect, the present invention provides a method for predicting landslides on a hydropower station slope, comprising the following steps:

[0007] Obtain displacement data, pore water pressure head data, and rainfall data for the hydropower station slope area;

[0008] Acquiring a displacement acceleration of a slope monitoring point based on the displacement data;

[0009] Determine the cohesion and internal friction angle of the slope rock and soil based on the rainfall data, and obtain the slope safety factor based on the cohesion, internal friction angle, displacement acceleration, and pore water pressure head data;

[0010] Obtaining a landslide probability of the slope based on the slope safety factor and the displacement acceleration;

[0011] Obtaining a comprehensive early warning index value according to the landslide probability;

[0012] A control instruction value is obtained based on the comprehensive early warning index, and a corresponding slope anti-landslide control instruction is executed according to the control instruction value.

[0013] Preferably, the method further comprises fusing the displacement data, pore water pressure head data and rainfall data.

[0014] Preferably, the displacement acceleration is expressed as follows:

[0015]

[0016] Where a d (t) represents the displacement acceleration of the slope monitoring point at time t, represents the second-order derivative of the fused displacement data D(t) with respect to time, γ represents the acceleration enhancement coefficient, D(τ) represents the fused displacement data at time τ, β represents the attenuation factor of the slope displacement sequence, ω represents the main frequency parameter of the slope displacement sequence, and e -β(t-τ) represents the time decay weight, and τ represents the integration time variable.

[0017] Preferably, the slope safety factor is expressed as follows:

[0018]

[0019] μ i (t) = γ w W(t) cos 2 θ i ;

[0020] Where, F s (t) represents the slope safety factor at time t, L i represents the bottom length of the i-th slope block, W i represents the weight of the i-th block of the slope, θ i represents the inclination angle of the bottom surface of the i-th block of the slope, μ i (t) represents the pore water pressure of the i-th block of the slope at time t, g represents the acceleration of gravity, c(t) represents the cohesion of the slope rock and soil at time t, φ(t) represents the internal friction angle of the slope rock and soil at time t, W(t) represents the pore water pressure head data after fusion at time t, γ w Indicates the weight of water.

[0021] Preferably, the cohesion of the slope rock mass is expressed as:

[0022] c(t)=c0+Δc(t);

[0023] Where c0 represents the initial cohesion of the slope rock and soil, Δc(t) represents the time-varying correction of the cohesion of the slope rock and soil;

[0024] The time-varying correction amount of cohesion is expressed as follows:

[0025]

[0026] Where k c represents the rainfall erosion coefficient of the cohesion of the slope rock and soil, and R(τ) represents the rainfall data after fusion at time τ;

[0027] The internal friction angle of the slope rock and soil is expressed as follows:

[0028] φ(t)=φ0+Δφ(t);

[0029] Where φ0 represents the initial internal friction angle of the slope rock and soil, Δφ(t) represents the time-varying correction of the internal friction angle of the slope rock and soil;

[0030]

[0031] Where k φ It represents the rainfall influence coefficient of the internal friction angle of the slope rock and soil.

[0032] Preferably, the landslide probability of the slope is expressed as:

[0033]

[0034] Where, P f (t) represents the probability of slope landslide at time t, N represents the number of simulations, I represents the indicator function, which takes 1 if the inequality holds and takes 0 otherwise, F s,j (t) represents the slope safety factor at time t of the jth simulation, κ represents the acceleration sensitivity coefficient, λ represents the uncertainty weight coefficient, σ c,j represents the standard deviation of the cohesion of the slope rock and soil at time t in the jth simulation, σ φ,j represents the standard deviation of the internal friction angle of the slope rock mass at time t in the jth simulation, c ref Indicates the preset cohesion reference value, φ ref Indicates the preset reference value of the internal friction angle.

[0035] Preferably, the comprehensive early warning index value is expressed as follows:

[0036]

[0037] Where, I warn (t) represents the comprehensive warning index value of the slope at time t, Θ represents the step function, if Then output 1, otherwise output 0, u1, u2, u3 represent the indicator weights, a crit Indicates the critical acceleration value of the slope, R critrepresents the critical rainfall value of the slope area, represents the first-order derivative of the landslide probability value with respect to time, ε represents the sensitivity coefficient of the probability change rate, and R(t) represents the fused rainfall data at time t.

[0038] Preferably, the control instruction value is expressed as follows:

[0039]

[0040] Where C ctrl (t) represents the control command value at time t, η1, η2, η3 represent the control weight coefficients, ξ represents the historical warning memory coefficient, Indicates the control history memory attenuation coefficient, I warn (τ) represents the comprehensive early warning index value of the slope at time τ.

[0041] In another aspect, the present invention further provides an electronic device having a computer program stored thereon, wherein when the computer program is executed by a processor, the method for predicting a hydropower station slope landslide as described in any embodiment of the present invention is implemented.

[0042] On the other hand, the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium for storing one or more programs, which, when executed by the one or more processors, enables the one or more processors to implement the hydropower station slope landslide prediction method as described in any embodiment of the present invention.

[0043] The present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0044] 1. The present invention simultaneously collects three sets of core data: displacement, pore water pressure, and rainfall, and constructs a three-dimensional data network for slope stability evaluation, which can more comprehensively and accurately reflect the stability of the slope and overcome the limitations of traditional methods.

[0045] 2. This method uses displacement data to determine the displacement acceleration of slope monitoring points. Combined with rainfall data, it determines the cohesion and internal friction angle of the slope rock and soil, and then calculates the slope safety factor and landslide probability. This method comprehensively considers displacement, pore water pressure, rainfall, and changes in the physical and mechanical properties of the rock and soil, significantly improving the accuracy of slope landslide prediction. Compared with traditional single-parameter prediction methods, it can more accurately assess slope landslide risk.

[0046] 3. The present invention can collect and process data such as displacement, pore water pressure, and rainfall in real time, and issue early warning signals in a timely manner, thereby discovering potential signs of slope instability earlier, improving the timeliness of early warnings, and buying more time for taking prevention and control measures. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0047] Figure 1The present invention is a flowchart for implementing the method. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0048] The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field based on the embodiments of the present invention without making any creative efforts shall fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0049] It should be understood that the step numbers used herein are only for convenience of description and are not intended to limit the order in which the steps are to be executed.

[0050] It should be understood that the terms used in the present specification are only for the purpose of describing specific embodiments and are not intended to limit the present invention. As used in the present specification and the appended claims, the singular forms "a", "an" and "the" are intended to include the plural forms unless the context clearly indicates otherwise.

[0051] The terms “include” and “comprising” indicate the presence of described features, integers, steps, operations, elements and / or components, but do not preclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, integers, steps, operations, elements, components and / or groups thereof.

[0052] The term "and / or" refers to and includes any and all possible combinations of one or more of the associated listed items.

[0053] Example 1:

[0054] See also Figure 1 The present invention provides a method for predicting landslides on the slopes of a hydropower station, comprising the following steps:

[0055] Obtain displacement data, pore water pressure head data, and rainfall data for the hydropower station slope area;

[0056] Acquiring a displacement acceleration of a slope monitoring point based on the displacement data;

[0057] Determine the cohesion and internal friction angle of the slope rock and soil based on the rainfall data, and obtain the slope safety factor based on the cohesion, internal friction angle, displacement acceleration, and pore water pressure head data;

[0058] Obtaining a landslide probability of the slope based on the slope safety factor and the displacement acceleration;

[0059] Obtaining a comprehensive early warning index value according to the landslide probability;

[0060] A control instruction value is obtained based on the comprehensive early warning index, and a corresponding slope anti-landslide control instruction is executed according to the control instruction value.

[0061] The slope anti-landslide control instructions include opening a small number of drainage holes at the toe of the slope, opening more drainage holes in the middle of the slope, starting two small water pumps in drainage corridor 1, starting two medium-sized water pumps in drainage corridor 2, and escalating the alarm to notify senior engineers to make decisions.

[0062] Preferably, the method further comprises fusing the displacement data, pore water pressure head data and rainfall data, which can be expressed as follows:

[0063]

[0064] Where D(t) represents the displacement data after fusion at time t, Represents the original displacement data D of the slope monitoring point monitored by the i-th displacement sensor at time t raw,i The weight of (t), N D Indicates the number of displacement sensors;

[0065]

[0066] Where W(t) represents the pore water pressure head data after fusion at time t, represents the original pore water pressure head data W inside the slope monitored by the i-th piezometer at time t raw,i The weight of (t), N W Indicates the number of osmometers;

[0067]

[0068] Where R(t) represents the fused rainfall data at time t, Represents the original rainfall data R of the slope area monitored by the i-th rain gauge at time t raw,i The weight of (t), N R Indicates the number of rain gauges.

[0069] Preferably, the displacement acceleration is expressed as follows:

[0070]

[0071] Where a d (t) represents the displacement acceleration of the slope monitoring point at time t, represents the second-order derivative of the fused displacement data D(t) with respect to time, γ represents the acceleration enhancement coefficient, D(τ) represents the fused displacement data at time τ, β represents the attenuation factor of the slope displacement sequence, which is obtained by exponential fitting of the displacement data sequence, ω represents the main frequency parameter of the slope displacement sequence, which is determined by FF analysis of the main frequency of the displacement data sequence, and e -β(t-τ) represents the time decay weight, τ represents the integral time variable, Represents the weighted contribution of historical displacement, which is used to enhance the short-term mutation signal.

[0072] The slope's sliding mass (potentially unstable soil) is assumed to slide along a specific sliding surface. To simplify the calculation, the sliding mass is divided vertically into multiple parallel strips (usually perpendicular strips). Each strip is treated as an independent rigid body. By analyzing the force balance of each strip, the stability of the entire slope is ultimately derived.

[0073] Preferably, the slope safety factor is expressed as follows:

[0074]

[0075] μ i (t) = γ w W(t) cos 2 θ i ;

[0076] Where, F s (t) represents the slope safety factor at time t, L i represents the bottom length of the i-th slope block, W i represents the weight of the i-th block of the slope, θ i represents the inclination angle of the bottom surface of the i-th block of the slope, μ i (t) represents the pore water pressure of the i-th block of the slope at time t, g represents the acceleration of gravity, c(t) represents the cohesion of the slope rock and soil at time t, φ(t) represents the internal friction angle of the slope rock and soil at time t, γ w Indicates the density of water, the default value is 9.81.

[0077] Preferably, the cohesion of the slope rock mass is expressed as:

[0078] c(t)=c0+Δc(t);

[0079] Where c0 represents the initial cohesion of the slope rock and soil, Δc(t) represents the time-varying correction of the cohesion of the slope rock and soil;

[0080] The time-varying correction amount of cohesion is expressed as follows:

[0081]

[0082] Where k c represents the rainfall erosion coefficient of the cohesion of the slope rock and soil, and R(τ) represents the rainfall data after fusion at time τ;

[0083] The internal friction angle of the slope rock and soil is expressed as follows:

[0084] φ(t)=φ0+Δφ(t);

[0085] Where φ0 represents the initial internal friction angle of the slope rock and soil, Δφ(t) represents the time-varying correction of the internal friction angle of the slope rock and soil;

[0086]

[0087] Where k φ It represents the rainfall influence coefficient of the internal friction angle of the slope rock and soil.

[0088] Preferably, the landslide probability of the slope is expressed as:

[0089]

[0090] Where, P f (t) represents the probability of slope landslide at time t, N represents the number of simulations, I represents the indicator function, which takes 1 if the inequality holds and takes 0 otherwise, F s,j (t) represents the slope safety factor at time t in the jth simulation, κ represents the acceleration sensitivity coefficient, λ represents the uncertainty weight coefficient, which is 1 by default, and σ c,j represents the standard deviation of the cohesion of the slope rock and soil at time t in the jth simulation, σ φ,j represents the standard deviation of the internal friction angle of the slope rock mass at time t in the jth simulation, c ref Indicates the preset cohesion reference value, φ ref Indicates the preset reference value of the internal friction angle.

[0091] Preferably, the comprehensive early warning index value is expressed as follows:

[0092]

[0093] Where, I warn (t) represents the comprehensive warning index value of the slope at time t, Θ represents the step function, if Then output 1, otherwise output 0, u1, u2, u3 represent the indicator weights, a crit Indicates the critical acceleration value of the slope, R crit represents the critical rainfall value of the slope area, It represents the first-order derivative of the landslide probability value with respect to time, and ε represents the sensitivity coefficient of the probability change rate.

[0094] Preferably, the control instruction value is expressed as follows:

[0095]

[0096] Where C ctrl (t) represents the control command value at time t, η1, η2, η3 represent the control weight coefficients, ξ represents the historical warning memory coefficient, Indicates the control history memory attenuation coefficient, I warn (τ) represents the comprehensive warning index value of the slope at time τ, and the ReLU function is used to ensure that the output is non-negative.

[0097] Example 2:

[0098] This embodiment provides an electronic device, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor. When the processor executes the program, the method for predicting hydropower station slope landslides as described in any embodiment of the present invention is implemented.

[0099] Example 3:

[0100] This embodiment provides a computer-readable storage medium for storing one or more programs. When the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the one or more processors implement the hydropower station slope landslide prediction method as described in any embodiment of the present invention.

[0101] In the embodiments of the present application, "at least one" refers to one or more, and "more" refers to two or more. "And / or" describes the association relationship of associated objects, indicating that three relationships may exist. For example, A and / or B can represent the existence of A alone, the existence of A and B at the same time, and the existence of B alone. Among them, A and B can be singular or plural. The character " / " generally indicates that the previous and next associated objects are in an "or" relationship. "At least one of the following" and similar expressions refer to any combination of these items, including any combination of single or plural items. For example, at least one of a, b and c can represent: a, b, c, a and b, a and c, b and c or a and b and c, where a, b, c can be single or multiple.

[0102] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the various units and algorithm steps described in the embodiments disclosed herein can be implemented using a combination of electronic hardware, computer software, and electronic hardware. Whether these functions are performed in hardware or software depends on the specific application and design constraints of the technical solution. Professionals and technicians can use different methods to implement the described functions for each specific application, but such implementation should not be considered beyond the scope of this application.

[0103] Those skilled in the art will clearly understand that, for the convenience and brevity of description, the specific working processes of the systems, devices and units described above can refer to the corresponding processes in the aforementioned method embodiments and will not be repeated here.

[0104] In the several embodiments provided in this application, if any function is implemented in the form of a software functional unit and sold or used as an independent product, it can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of this application, or the part that contributes to the prior art, or the part of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product. The computer software product is stored in a storage medium and includes several instructions for enabling a computer device (which can be a personal computer, server, or network device, etc.) to execute all or part of the steps of the method described in each embodiment of this application. The aforementioned storage medium includes: U disk, mobile hard disk, read-only memory (Read-Only Memory; hereinafter referred to as: ROM), random access memory (Random Access Memory; hereinafter referred to as: RAM), magnetic disk or optical disk, and other media that can store program code.

[0105] The above descriptions are merely embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the patent scope of the present invention. Any equivalent structure or equivalent process transformation made using the contents of the present invention's description and drawings, or directly or indirectly applied in other related technical fields, are also included in the patent protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for predicting slope landslides in a hydropower station, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Obtain displacement data, pore water pressure head data, and rainfall data for the hydropower station slope area; Acquiring a displacement acceleration of a slope monitoring point based on the displacement data; Determine the cohesion and internal friction angle of the slope rock and soil based on the rainfall data, and obtain the slope safety factor based on the cohesion, internal friction angle, displacement acceleration, and pore water pressure head data; Obtaining a landslide probability of the slope based on the slope safety factor and the displacement acceleration; Obtaining a comprehensive early warning index value according to the landslide probability; A control instruction value is obtained based on the comprehensive early warning index, and a corresponding slope anti-landslide control instruction is executed according to the control instruction value.

2. The hydropower station slope landslide prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The method further includes fusing the displacement data, pore water pressure head data and rainfall data.

3. The hydropower station slope landslide prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The displacement acceleration is expressed as follows: Where a d (t) represents the displacement acceleration of the slope monitoring point at time t, represents the second-order derivative of the fused displacement data D(t) with respect to time, γ represents the acceleration enhancement coefficient, D(τ) represents the fused displacement data at time τ, β represents the attenuation factor of the slope displacement sequence, ω represents the main frequency parameter of the slope displacement sequence, and e -β(t-τ) represents the time decay weight, and τ represents the integration time variable.

4. The hydropower station slope landslide prediction method according to claim 3, characterized in that: The slope safety factor is expressed as follows: m i (t)=γ w ·W(t)·cos 2 i i ; Where, F s (t) represents the slope safety factor at time t, L i represents the bottom length of the i-th slope block, W i represents the weight of the i-th block of the slope, θ i represents the inclination angle of the bottom surface of the i-th slope block, μ i (t) represents the pore water pressure of the i-th block of the slope at time t, g represents the acceleration of gravity, c(t) represents the cohesion of the slope rock and soil at time t, φ(t) represents the internal friction angle of the slope rock and soil at time t, W(t) represents the pore water pressure head data after fusion at time t, γ w Indicates the weight of water.

5. The hydropower station slope landslide prediction method according to claim 4, characterized in that: The cohesion of the slope rock and soil is expressed as follows: c(t)=c0+Δc(t); Where c0 represents the initial cohesion of the slope rock and soil, Δc(t) represents the time-varying correction of the cohesion of the slope rock and soil; The time-varying correction amount of cohesion is expressed as follows: Where k c represents the rainfall erosion coefficient of the cohesion of the slope rock and soil, and R(τ) represents the rainfall data after fusion at time τ; The internal friction angle of the slope rock and soil is expressed as follows: φ(t)=φ0+Δφ(t); Where φ0 represents the initial internal friction angle of the slope rock and soil, Δφ(t) represents the time-varying correction of the internal friction angle of the slope rock and soil; Where k φ It represents the rainfall influence coefficient of the internal friction angle of the slope rock and soil.

6. The method for predicting landslides at a hydropower station according to claim 4, characterized in that: The landslide probability of a slope is expressed as: Where, P f (t) represents the probability of slope landslide at time t, N represents the number of simulations, I represents the indicator function, which takes 1 if the inequality holds and takes 0 otherwise, F s,j (t) represents the slope safety factor at time t of the jth simulation, κ represents the acceleration sensitivity coefficient, λ represents the uncertainty weight coefficient, σ c,j represents the standard deviation of the cohesion of the slope rock and soil at time t in the jth simulation, σ φ,j represents the standard deviation of the internal friction angle of the slope rock mass at time t in the jth simulation, c ref Indicates the preset cohesion reference value, φ ref Indicates the preset reference value of the internal friction angle.

7. The hydropower station slope landslide prediction method according to claim 6, characterized in that: The comprehensive early warning index value is expressed as follows: Where, I warn (t) represents the comprehensive warning index value of the slope at time t, Θ represents the step function, if Then output 1, otherwise output 0, u1, u2, u3 represent the indicator weights, a crit Indicates the critical acceleration value of the slope, R crit represents the critical rainfall value of the slope area, represents the first-order derivative of the landslide probability value with respect to time, ε represents the sensitivity coefficient of the probability change rate, and R(t) represents the fused rainfall data at time t.

8. The method for predicting slope landslides in a hydropower station according to claim 7, characterized in that: The control command value is expressed as follows: Where C ctrl (t) represents the control command value at time t, η1, η2, η3 represent the control weight coefficients, ξ represents the historical warning memory coefficient, Indicates the control history memory attenuation coefficient, I warn (τ) represents the comprehensive early warning index value of the slope at time τ.

9. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein: When the processor executes the program, the hydropower station slope landslide prediction method according to any one of claims 1 to 8 is implemented.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the program is executed by a processor, the method for predicting slope landslides in a hydropower station as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 8 is implemented.

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