Nuclear power plant earthquake risk analysis method, system, equipment and medium

Abstract

The invention provides a nuclear power plant earthquake risk analysis method, system, device and medium, and the analysis method comprises the steps: carrying out the interval division of a ground peak acceleration in each earthquake hazard curve data, obtaining a plurality of sub-intervals, and calculating the earthquake occurrence frequency of each sub-interval; according to each piece of earthquake hazard curve data and the earthquake failure parameter, calculating the vulnerability probability of each subinterval in each piece of earthquake hazard curve data; according to each piece of earthquake hazard curve data, the earthquake failure parameter and the random failure parameter, calculating the core damage probability of each subinterval in each piece of earthquake hazard curve data; and generating a risk data set of each piece of earthquake hazard curve data according to the earthquake occurrence frequency, the vulnerability probability and the reactor core damage probability corresponding to all the subintervals in each piece of earthquake hazard curve data. According to the method, the vulnerability degree and the reactor core damage probability of the nuclear power plant under the earthquake condition can be accurately and quickly calculated.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of earthquake risk assessment technology, and in particular to a method, system, equipment and medium for analyzing earthquake risk in nuclear power plants. Background Technology

[0002] Traditional probabilistic safety assessment methods suffer from uncertainties in handling earthquake risk assessments. For example, insufficient analytical processing and a lack of computational information such as cut sets and importance levels lead to significant calculation errors. In existing technologies, earthquake hazard curves, provided by local authorities, quantitatively describe the probability of a specific location experiencing an earthquake exceeding a given seismic intensity (such as a PGA) within a certain future period (usually one year), but lack more precise processing methods. Therefore, improvements are needed. Summary of the Invention

[0003] This invention provides a method, system, equipment, and medium for analyzing earthquake risk in nuclear power plants, in order to solve the technical problem of the lack of accurate data processing in existing earthquake risk assessment technologies.

[0004] This invention proposes a method for analyzing the seismic risk of nuclear power plants, including:

[0005] Seismic failure parameters, random failure parameters, and multiple different seismic hazard curve data are obtained; wherein, the seismic hazard curve data represents the correspondence between peak ground acceleration and earthquake frequency;

[0006] In each of the earthquake hazard curve data, the peak ground acceleration is divided into multiple sub-intervals, and the number of earthquakes in each sub-interval is calculated;

[0007] Based on each of the earthquake hazard curve data and earthquake failure parameters, calculate the vulnerability probability of each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data.

[0008] Based on each of the earthquake hazard curve data, earthquake failure parameters, and random failure parameters, calculate the core damage probability of each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data.

[0009] Based on the number of earthquakes, vulnerability probability, and core damage probability corresponding to all sub-intervals in each of the earthquake hazard curve data, a risk data group is generated for each of the earthquake hazard curve data.

[0010] In one embodiment of the present invention, the step of dividing the peak ground acceleration into multiple sub-intervals in each of the seismic hazard curve data includes:

[0011] In each of the earthquake hazard curve data, the ground peak acceleration is divided into equally spaced intervals starting from zero according to a preset length, and when the number of divisions reaches a preset number, multiple sub-intervals with the same interval length are obtained.

[0012] In one embodiment of the present invention, the step of calculating the number of earthquakes in each sub-interval includes:

[0013] Obtain the median value of the peak ground acceleration in each sub-interval;

[0014] The earthquake frequency corresponding to the median value of each sub-interval is calculated and used as the corresponding number of earthquakes.

[0015] In one embodiment of the present invention, the step of calculating the number of earthquakes in each sub-interval includes:

[0016] Obtain the maximum and minimum earthquake frequency in each sub-interval;

[0017] Calculate the average of the maximum and minimum earthquake frequency values ​​in each sub-interval, and use this average as the corresponding number of earthquake occurrences.

[0018] In one embodiment of the present invention, the step of calculating the vulnerability probability of each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data based on each of the earthquake hazard curve data and earthquake failure parameters includes:

[0019] Based on the equipment failure parameters in each of the earthquake hazard curve data and earthquake failure parameters, calculate the equipment failure probability of all equipment corresponding to each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data.

[0020] The equipment failure probabilities corresponding to all devices in each sub-interval of each earthquake hazard curve data are summed to obtain the vulnerability probability of each sub-interval in each earthquake hazard curve data.

[0021] In one embodiment of the present invention, the device failure probability P(a) satisfies:

[0022]

[0023] Where a is the peak ground acceleration, b is the median failure acceleration of the equipment, which is obtained from the equipment seismic test or historical data fitting; β is the logarithmic standard deviation, which characterizes the degree of dispersion of the equipment's seismic resistance capability.

[0024] In one embodiment of the present invention, the step of calculating the core damage probability of each sub-interval in each seismic hazard curve data based on each seismic hazard curve data, seismic failure parameter, and random failure parameter includes:

[0025] Based on the human failure parameters in each of the earthquake hazard curve data and earthquake failure parameters, calculate the probability of human failure in each sub-interval of each of the earthquake hazard curve data.

[0026] Based on the random failure parameters in each of the earthquake hazard curve data and earthquake failure parameters, calculate the random failure probability of each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data.

[0027] The core damage probability of each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data is obtained by weighted summation of the vulnerability probability, human-caused failure probability, and random failure probability.

[0028] In one embodiment of the present invention, the human factor failure probability P(HFE) satisfies:

[0029] P(HFE) = P(HFR) * BFF;

[0030] Wherein, P(HFR) is the probability of random human-caused failure in the human-caused failure parameters, representing the probability of failure when personnel perform operations on all equipment under non-earthquake conditions; BFF is the behavior formation factor in the human-caused failure parameters, representing the amplification factor that leads to the probability of failure when personnel perform operations on all equipment under earthquake conditions.

[0031] In one embodiment of the present invention, the step of generating risk data for each seismic hazard curve data based on the number of earthquakes, vulnerability probability, and core damage probability corresponding to all sub-intervals in each seismic hazard curve data includes:

[0032] Calculate the average number of earthquake occurrences across all sub-intervals in each of the earthquake hazard curve data sets to obtain the earthquake occurrence frequency corresponding to each of the earthquake hazard curve data sets;

[0033] Calculate the average vulnerability probability of all sub-intervals in each of the earthquake hazard curve data to obtain the vulnerability data corresponding to each of the earthquake hazard curve data;

[0034] Calculate the average core damage probability of all sub-intervals in each of the earthquake hazard curve data to obtain the core damage data corresponding to each of the earthquake hazard curve data;

[0035] Record the earthquake occurrence frequency, vulnerability data, and core damage data for each of the earthquake hazard curve data to generate the corresponding risk data group.

[0036] This invention also proposes a system for analyzing the seismic risk of nuclear power plants, comprising:

[0037] The acquisition unit is used to acquire seismic failure parameters, random failure parameters, and multiple different seismic hazard curve data; wherein, the seismic hazard curve data represents the correspondence between peak ground acceleration and earthquake occurrence frequency;

[0038] The division unit is used to divide the peak ground acceleration into multiple sub-intervals in each of the earthquake hazard curve data, and to calculate the number of earthquakes corresponding to each sub-interval;

[0039] The first calculation unit is used to calculate the vulnerability probability of each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data based on each earthquake hazard curve data and earthquake failure parameters.

[0040] The second calculation unit is used to calculate the core damage probability of each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data based on each of the earthquake hazard curve data, earthquake failure parameters and random failure parameters;

[0041] The generation unit is used to generate a risk data group for each earthquake hazard curve data based on the number of earthquakes, vulnerability probability, and core damage probability corresponding to all sub-intervals in each earthquake hazard curve data.

[0042] The present invention also proposes an electronic device, the electronic device comprising:

[0043] One or more processors;

[0044] A storage device for storing one or more programs, which, when executed by one or more processors, cause the electronic device to implement the nuclear power plant seismic risk analysis method as described above.

[0045] The present invention also proposes a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a computer processor, causes the computer to perform any of the above-described methods for analyzing the seismic risk of nuclear power plants.

[0046] The beneficial effects of this invention are as follows: This invention proposes a method, system, equipment, and medium for analyzing the seismic risk of nuclear power plants. First, the ground peak ground acceleration (GFA) in the seismic hazard curve data can be divided into multiple sub-intervals. Then, for each sub-interval in the seismic hazard curve data, the number of earthquakes in each sub-interval can be calculated. Furthermore, the vulnerability probability of each sub-interval can be calculated using seismic failure parameters. Additionally, the core damage probability of each seismic hazard curve data point can be calculated using seismic failure parameters and random failure parameters. Finally, based on the number of earthquakes, vulnerability probability, and core damage probability corresponding to all sub-intervals in each seismic hazard curve data point, a risk data set corresponding to each seismic hazard curve data point is generated. This invention enables quantitative analysis of the seismic risk of nuclear power plants and can accurately and quickly calculate the vulnerability of nuclear power plants and the probability of core damage caused by earthquakes in the event of an earthquake. Attached Figure Description

[0047] The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and form part of this specification, illustrate embodiments consistent with this application and, together with the description, serve to explain the principles of this application. It is obvious that the drawings described below are merely some embodiments of this application, and those skilled in the art can obtain other drawings based on these drawings without any inventive effort.

[0048] In the attached diagram:

[0049] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram illustrating the steps of a method for analyzing the seismic risk of a nuclear power plant, as provided in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0050] Figure 2 This is a structural block diagram of a nuclear power plant earthquake risk analysis system provided in one embodiment of the present invention.

[0051] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device provided in one embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0052] The following specific examples illustrate the implementation of the present invention. Those skilled in the art can easily understand other advantages and effects of the present invention from the content disclosed in this specification. The present invention can also be implemented or applied through other different specific embodiments. Various details in this specification can also be modified or changed based on different viewpoints and applications without departing from the spirit of the present invention. In the absence of conflict, the following embodiments and features in the embodiments can be combined with each other.

[0053] It should be noted that the illustrations provided in the following embodiments are only schematic representations of the basic concept of the present invention. The drawings only show the components related to the present invention and are not drawn according to the actual number, shape and size of the components in the actual implementation. In the actual implementation, the form, quantity and proportion of each component can be arbitrarily changed, and the layout of the components may also be more complex.

[0054] In the following description, numerous details are explored to provide a more thorough explanation of embodiments of the invention. However, it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that embodiments of the invention may be practiced without these specific details. In other embodiments, well-known structures and devices are shown in block diagram form rather than in detail to avoid obscuring embodiments of the invention.

[0055] Please see Figures 1 to 3 This invention proposes a method, system, equipment, and medium for analyzing the seismic risk of nuclear power plants. It can be applied to multiple interdisciplinary fields such as nuclear engineering, seismology, and probability theory, for example, to perform quantitative analysis and calculation of the seismic risk of nuclear power plants. This invention can accurately and quickly calculate the vulnerability of nuclear power plants and the probability of core damage caused by earthquakes. Detailed descriptions are provided below using specific embodiments.

[0056] Please see Figure 1 This invention proposes a method for analyzing the seismic risk of nuclear power plants, which includes the following steps.

[0057] Step S10: Obtain earthquake failure parameters, random failure parameters, and multiple different earthquake hazard curve data; wherein, the earthquake hazard curve data represents the correspondence between peak ground acceleration and earthquake occurrence frequency.

[0058] Specifically, seismic failure parameters refer to the failure parameters of nuclear power plant equipment and personnel operations caused by seismic conditions. Seismic failure parameters can include equipment failure parameters and human-caused failure parameters. For example, seismic failure parameters refer to the failure parameters of nuclear power plant equipment caused by earthquakes, while human-caused failure parameters refer to the failure parameters of personnel operations caused by earthquakes.

[0059] Specifically, random failure parameters refer to the failure parameters of equipment under non-earthquake conditions. For example, random failure parameters refer to the failure parameters corresponding to mechanical wear and electrical aging of equipment under non-earthquake conditions.

[0060] Specifically, seismic hazard curve data can represent different earthquake models. The horizontal axis of the seismic hazard curve data represents earthquake intensity, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA), while the vertical axis represents earthquake frequency, such as the annual average probability, that is, the frequency (number) of earthquakes occurring in a year. In other words, seismic hazard curve data represents the correspondence between peak ground acceleration and earthquake frequency.

[0061] Step S20: In each of the earthquake hazard curve data, the ground peak acceleration is divided into multiple sub-intervals, and the number of earthquakes in each sub-interval is calculated.

[0062] Specifically, since seismic hazard curves are provided by local authorities, they quantitatively describe the probability that a specific location will experience an earthquake exceeding a given seismic intensity (such as PGA) within a certain future period (usually one year), but lack more precise processing methods. Therefore, in this embodiment, specific analysis can be performed on different peak ground accelerations (PGAs) in the seismic hazard curve data. For example, the corresponding earthquake occurrence frequency and vulnerability probability can be analyzed for different PGAs, and the corresponding core damage probability can be analyzed for a single seismic hazard curve data.

[0063] In one embodiment of the present invention, step S20, which calculates the number of earthquakes corresponding to each sub-interval, may include steps S210 and S220.

[0064] Step S210: In each of the earthquake hazard curve data, the ground peak acceleration is divided into equally spaced intervals starting from zero according to a preset length, and when the number of divisions reaches a preset number, multiple sub-intervals with the same interval length are obtained.

[0065] Specifically, the number of sub-intervals in the seismic hazard curve data can be determined by the value of the peak ground acceleration (PGA). By dividing the PGA into equally spaced intervals starting from zero according to a preset length in each seismic hazard curve data, and then analyzing the earthquake occurrence frequency, vulnerability probability, and core damage probability corresponding to different sub-intervals, the differences between different sub-intervals can be intuitively analyzed.

[0066] Step S220: In the different earthquake hazard curve data, the ground peak acceleration is divided into equally spaced intervals starting from zero according to the same interval length, so that the different earthquake hazard curve data have the same sub-interval value range.

[0067] Specifically, by setting different seismic hazard curve data to have the same sub-interval value range, and then analyzing the earthquake occurrence frequency, vulnerability probability, and core damage probability of the sub-intervals of different seismic hazard curve data, the differences between different seismic hazard curve data can be intuitively analyzed.

[0068] In one embodiment of the present invention, the step of calculating the number of earthquakes in each sub-interval in step S20 may include steps S230 and S240.

[0069] Step S230: Obtain the median value of the ground peak acceleration in each sub-interval.

[0070] Step S240: Calculate and use the earthquake occurrence frequency corresponding to the median value of each sub-interval as the corresponding number of earthquake occurrences.

[0071] Specifically, by taking the earthquake frequency corresponding to the midpoint of each sub-interval as the corresponding number of earthquakes, the earthquake frequency corresponding to each sub-interval can be intuitively reflected.

[0072] It is worth mentioning that, since the earthquake hazard curve data corresponds to the frequency of earthquake occurrence, in order to make a distinction, the earthquake occurrence frequency corresponding to each sub-interval can be recorded as the number of earthquakes.

[0073] In one embodiment of the present invention, the step of calculating the number of earthquakes in each sub-interval in step S20 may include steps S250 and S260.

[0074] Step S250: Obtain the maximum and minimum earthquake occurrence frequencies in each sub-interval.

[0075] Step S260: Calculate the average of the maximum and minimum earthquake frequency values ​​in each sub-interval, which will be used as the corresponding number of earthquake occurrences.

[0076] Specifically, by taking the average of the maximum and minimum earthquake frequency values ​​in each sub-interval as the corresponding number of earthquakes, the earthquake frequency corresponding to each sub-interval can be intuitively reflected.

[0077] Step S30: Calculate the vulnerability probability of each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data and earthquake failure parameters.

[0078] In one embodiment of the present invention, step S30 may include steps S310 and S320.

[0079] Step S310: Based on the equipment failure parameters in each of the earthquake hazard curve data and earthquake failure parameters, calculate the equipment failure probability of all equipment corresponding to each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data.

[0080] Specifically, firstly, for each seismic hazard curve data, the curve is divided into multiple sub-intervals according to a pre-defined ground peak acceleration (GFA) interval division rule. For each sub-interval, the median value of that interval is selected as the representative GFA. Then, based on the median failure acceleration and logarithmic standard deviation of the equipment failure parameters, a double log-normal distribution model is used to calculate the failure probability of the equipment under that GFA.

[0081] Wherein, the equipment failure probability P(a) satisfies:

[0082]

[0083] Where a is the peak ground acceleration, b is the median failure acceleration of the equipment, which is obtained from the equipment seismic test or historical data fitting; β is the logarithmic standard deviation, which characterizes the degree of dispersion of the equipment's seismic resistance capability.

[0084] This model can accurately calculate the equipment failure probability corresponding to the seismic hazard curve at different confidence levels, providing data support for subsequent vulnerability analysis.

[0085] Step S320: Sum the equipment failure probabilities of all devices corresponding to each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data to obtain the vulnerability probability of each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data.

[0086] Specifically, after calculating the failure probability of all equipment within each sub-interval, the vulnerability probability of that sub-interval is further calculated. The specific process is as follows: For each seismic hazard curve data, all its sub-intervals are traversed. Within each sub-interval, the failure probabilities of all equipment within that interval are summed to obtain the vulnerability probability of that sub-interval.

[0087] The vulnerability probability here reflects the likelihood of failure of the entire nuclear power plant's equipment under seismic loading within the peak ground acceleration range. Since the failure probabilities of different components under seismic loading may influence each other, calculating the overall vulnerability using a probability superposition method allows for a more accurate assessment of the nuclear power plant's seismic resistance. Ultimately, the combination of vulnerability probabilities from all sub-intervals forms a complete plant vulnerability curve, providing crucial input for subsequent core damage frequency calculations. The advantage of this method lies in its ability to comprehensively consider seismic hazard data at different confidence levels, ensuring the comprehensiveness and accuracy of risk quantification analysis.

[0088] Step S40: Calculate the core damage probability of each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data, earthquake failure parameters, and random failure parameters.

[0089] In one embodiment of the present invention, step S40 may include the following steps.

[0090] Step S410: Calculate the probability of human failure corresponding to each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data and the human failure parameters in the earthquake failure parameters.

[0091] Specifically, the first step is to obtain the probability of random human failure and the behavioral formation factor from the human factors failure parameters. The probability of random human failure represents the probability of failure when personnel perform operations on all equipment under non-seismic conditions. This probability is usually determined based on historical operating data or human factors reliability analysis methods.

[0092] The behavior formation factor reflects the degree of impact of seismic conditions on the reliability of personnel operations; a value greater than 1 indicates that the probability of personnel operational failure is amplified under seismic conditions. For each sub-interval, the probability of human failure is calculated by multiplying the probability of random human failure by the behavior formation factor using the human failure probability calculation formula. This calculation process considers the dynamic impact of seismic intensity changes on human reliability, ensuring that the calculation results accurately reflect the operational risks of personnel under different seismic intensities.

[0093] Wherein, the probability of human-caused failure P(HFE) satisfies:

[0094] P(HFE) = P(HFR) * BFF;

[0095] Wherein, P(HFR) is the probability of random human-caused failure in the human-caused failure parameters, representing the probability of failure when personnel perform operations on all equipment under non-earthquake conditions; BFF is the behavior formation factor in the human-caused failure parameters, representing the amplification factor that leads to the probability of failure when personnel perform operations on all equipment under earthquake conditions.

[0096] Step S420: Calculate the random failure probability corresponding to each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data based on the random failure parameters in each of the earthquake failure parameters.

[0097] Specifically, random failure parameters include the probability distribution parameters of random failure of equipment under non-seismic conditions. These parameters typically follow a log-normal distribution or other specific probability distributions. For each sub-interval, the peak ground acceleration level corresponding to that interval is first determined, and then the random failure probability under that earthquake intensity is calculated based on the distribution characteristics of the random failure parameters.

[0098] For common-cause failures, specialized beta-factor models or multi-Greek letter models can be used for calculation. The key to this step is to accurately establish a correlation model between seismic intensity and random failure probability, ensuring that the calculation of random failure probability considers both the inherent reliability characteristics of the equipment and the impact of the seismic environment.

[0099] Step S430: The vulnerability probability, human-caused failure probability, and random failure probability of each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data are weighted and summed to obtain the core damage probability of each sub-interval.

[0100] Specifically, after calculating the probability of equipment failure, the probability of human-caused failure, and the probability of random failure, these probabilities need to be processed comprehensively.

[0101] For each sub-interval, the vulnerability probability of that interval is first obtained. This data already includes the sum of the failure probabilities of all equipment under that earthquake intensity. Then, the vulnerability probability is weighted and summed with the human-caused failure probability and the random failure probability to obtain the overall core damage probability of that sub-interval.

[0102] In the weighted summation of the vulnerability probability, human-caused failure probability, and random failure probability, the weighting factors for these probabilities can be adjusted based on actual conditions. The vulnerability probability, human-caused failure probability, and random failure probability correspond to equipment failure, human-caused failure, and random failure, respectively, and are all independent events. Therefore, the overall risk is estimated by summing the probabilities. This step allows for a comprehensive assessment of the combined impact of each earthquake intensity range on core damage.

[0103] Step S50: Generate a risk data group for each earthquake hazard curve data based on the number of earthquakes, vulnerability probability, and core damage probability corresponding to all sub-intervals in each earthquake hazard curve data.

[0104] In one embodiment of the present invention, step S50 may include the following steps.

[0105] Step S510: Calculate the average number of earthquakes in all sub-intervals of each earthquake hazard curve data to obtain the earthquake frequency corresponding to each earthquake hazard curve data.

[0106] Specifically, the first step is to iterate through all sub-intervals in the seismic hazard curve data. Each sub-interval contains the earthquake occurrence count data corresponding to that interval. The earthquake occurrence count is obtained by converting the annual exceedance probability of earthquakes into the annual occurrence frequency, reflecting the number of times an earthquake of that magnitude might occur within a year.

[0107] For each seismic hazard curve, the average earthquake frequency is calculated by summing the number of earthquakes in all sub-intervals and dividing by the total number of sub-intervals. This average value represents the overall level of seismic activity described by the seismic hazard curve data, eliminating the influence of individual extreme intervals and allowing subsequent risk assessments to be based on more representative seismic activity characteristics.

[0108] Step S520: Calculate the average vulnerability probability of all sub-intervals in each of the earthquake hazard curve data to obtain the vulnerability data corresponding to each of the earthquake hazard curve data.

[0109] Specifically, for each seismic hazard curve data, the system extracts the vulnerability probability values ​​of all sub-intervals, sums these values, and divides them by the number of sub-intervals to obtain the average vulnerability probability. The resulting average vulnerability data can represent the overall seismic resistance performance of the nuclear power plant under that seismic hazard curve data, eliminating the influence of individual extreme intervals and making the assessment results more representative.

[0110] Step S530: Calculate the average value of the core damage probability of all sub-intervals in each of the earthquake hazard curve data to obtain the core damage data corresponding to each of the earthquake hazard curve data.

[0111] Specifically, the system aggregates the core damage probabilities calculated for all sub-intervals under each seismic hazard curve. These probability values ​​reflect the contribution of different seismic intensities to the core damage risk. For each curve, the system adds up the core damage probabilities of all sub-intervals and then divides by the total number of sub-intervals to calculate the average core damage probability.

[0112] The obtained average core damage data can represent the overall core damage risk level corresponding to the seismic hazard curve data, and is one of the core indicators for seismic risk assessment of nuclear power plants.

[0113] Step S540: Record the earthquake occurrence frequency, vulnerability data, and core damage data for each of the earthquake hazard curve data to generate the corresponding risk data group.

[0114] Specifically, each risk data set includes these three key indicators and establishes a clear correspondence with the original seismic hazard curve data. The generated risk data sets will serve as the foundation for subsequent risk analysis and decision support, supporting various analytical needs, including risk comparisons at different confidence levels and time series analysis. These risk data sets can be directly imported into the nuclear power plant's risk management system to provide data support for safety decision-making.

[0115] Please see Figure 2In one embodiment of the present invention, a nuclear power plant earthquake risk analysis system 100 is also proposed, which may include an acquisition unit 110, a division unit 120, a first calculation unit 130, a second calculation unit 140 and a generation unit 150.

[0116] The acquisition unit 110 is used to acquire earthquake failure parameters, random failure parameters, and multiple different earthquake hazard curve data; wherein, the earthquake hazard curve data represents the correspondence between peak ground acceleration and earthquake occurrence frequency.

[0117] The division unit 120 is used to divide the peak ground acceleration into multiple sub-intervals in each of the earthquake hazard curve data, and calculate the number of earthquakes corresponding to each sub-interval.

[0118] The first calculation unit 130 is used to calculate the vulnerability probability of each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data based on each of the earthquake hazard curve data and earthquake failure parameters.

[0119] The second calculation unit 140 is used to calculate the core damage probability of each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data based on each of the earthquake hazard curve data, earthquake failure parameters, and random failure parameters.

[0120] The generation unit 150 is used to generate a risk data group for each earthquake hazard curve data based on the number of earthquakes, vulnerability probability, and core damage probability corresponding to all sub-intervals in each earthquake hazard curve data.

[0121] Please see Figure 3 In one embodiment of the present invention, an electronic device 200 may also be provided. The electronic device 200 may include a memory 210, a processor 220 and a bus, and may also include a computer program stored in the memory 210 and executable on the processor 220, such as a nuclear power plant earthquake risk analysis program.

[0122] The memory 210 includes at least one type of readable storage medium, such as flash memory, portable hard drive, multimedia card, card-type memory (e.g., SD or DX memory), magnetic memory, magnetic disk, optical disk, etc. In some embodiments, the memory 210 can be an internal storage unit of the electronic device 200, such as the portable hard drive of the electronic device 200. In other embodiments, the memory 210 can be an external storage device of the electronic device 200, such as a plug-in portable hard drive, smart media card (SMC), secure digital card (SD), flash card, etc., equipped on the electronic device 200. Furthermore, the memory 210 can include both internal and external storage units of the electronic device 200. The memory 210 can be used not only to store application software and various types of data installed on the electronic device 200, such as code for analyzing earthquake risks in nuclear power plants, but also to temporarily store data that has been output or will be output.

[0123] In some embodiments, processor 220 may be composed of integrated circuits, such as a single packaged integrated circuit or multiple integrated circuits packaged with the same or different functions, including combinations of one or more central processing units (CPUs), microprocessors, digital processing chips, graphics processors, and various control chips. Processor 220 is the control unit of the electronic device 200, connecting various components of the electronic device 200 via various interfaces and lines. It executes programs or modules stored in the memory 210 (e.g., earthquake risk analysis programs for nuclear power plants) and calls data stored in the memory 210 to perform various functions and process data of the electronic device 200.

[0124] The processor 220 executes the operating system of the electronic device 200 and various installed applications. The processor 220 executes the applications to implement the steps in the above-described method for analyzing the seismic risk of nuclear power plants.

[0125] For example, the computer program may be divided into one or more modules, which are stored in the memory 210 and executed by the processor 220 to complete this application. The one or more modules may be a series of computer program instruction segments capable of performing specific functions, which describe the execution process of the computer program in the electronic device 200. For example, the computer program may be divided into an acquisition unit 110, a partitioning unit 120, a first calculation unit 130, a second calculation unit 140, and a generation unit 150.

[0126] The integrated unit implemented as a software functional module described above can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, which can be non-volatile or volatile. The software functional module, stored in the storage medium, includes several instructions to cause a computer device (which may be a personal computer, computer equipment, or network device, etc.) or processor to execute some functions of the nuclear power plant earthquake risk analysis method described in the various embodiments of this application.

[0127] In summary, this invention proposes a method, system, equipment, and medium for analyzing the seismic risk of nuclear power plants. It can quantitatively analyze the seismic risk of nuclear power plants and accurately and quickly calculate the vulnerability of nuclear power plants and the probability of core damage caused by earthquakes.

[0128] The above embodiments are merely illustrative of the principles and effects of the present invention and are not intended to limit the invention. Any person skilled in the art can modify or alter the above embodiments without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. Therefore, all equivalent modifications or alterations made by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit and technical concept disclosed in the present invention should still be covered by the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for analyzing the seismic risk of nuclear power plants, characterized in that, include: Seismic failure parameters, random failure parameters, and multiple different seismic hazard curve data are obtained; wherein, the seismic hazard curve data represents the correspondence between peak ground acceleration and earthquake frequency; In each of the earthquake hazard curve data, the peak ground acceleration is divided into multiple sub-intervals, and the number of earthquakes in each sub-interval is calculated; Based on each of the earthquake hazard curve data and earthquake failure parameters, calculate the vulnerability probability of each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data. Based on each of the earthquake hazard curve data, earthquake failure parameters, and random failure parameters, calculate the core damage probability of each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data. Based on the number of earthquakes, vulnerability probability, and core damage probability corresponding to all sub-intervals in each of the earthquake hazard curve data, a risk data group is generated for each of the earthquake hazard curve data.

2. The method for analyzing the seismic risk of nuclear power plants according to claim 1, characterized in that, The step of dividing the peak ground acceleration into multiple sub-intervals in each of the earthquake hazard curve data includes: In each of the earthquake hazard curve data, the ground peak acceleration is divided into equally spaced intervals starting from zero according to a preset length, and when the number of divisions reaches a preset number, multiple sub-intervals with the same interval length are obtained.

3. The method for analyzing the seismic risk of nuclear power plants according to claim 2, characterized in that, The step of calculating the number of earthquakes in each sub-interval includes: Obtain the median value of the peak ground acceleration in each sub-interval; The earthquake frequency corresponding to the median value of each sub-interval is calculated and used as the corresponding number of earthquakes.

4. The method for analyzing the seismic risk of nuclear power plants according to claim 2, characterized in that, The step of calculating the number of earthquakes in each sub-interval includes: Obtain the maximum and minimum earthquake frequency in each sub-interval; Calculate the average of the maximum and minimum earthquake frequency values ​​in each sub-interval, and use this average as the corresponding number of earthquake occurrences.

5. The method for analyzing the seismic risk of nuclear power plants according to claim 1, characterized in that, The step of calculating the vulnerability probability of each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data based on each of the earthquake hazard curve data and earthquake failure parameters includes: Based on the equipment failure parameters in each of the earthquake hazard curve data and earthquake failure parameters, calculate the equipment failure probability of all equipment corresponding to each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data. The equipment failure probabilities corresponding to all devices in each sub-interval of each earthquake hazard curve data are summed to obtain the vulnerability probability of each sub-interval in each earthquake hazard curve data.

6. The method for analyzing the seismic risk of nuclear power plants according to claim 5, characterized in that, The failure probability P(a) of the device satisfies: Where a is the peak ground acceleration, b is the median failure acceleration of the equipment, which is obtained from the equipment seismic test or historical data fitting; β is the logarithmic standard deviation, which characterizes the degree of dispersion of the equipment's seismic resistance capability.

7. The method for analyzing the seismic risk of nuclear power plants according to claim 5, characterized in that, The step of calculating the core damage probability of each sub-interval in each seismic hazard curve data based on each seismic hazard curve data, seismic failure parameters, and random failure parameters includes: Based on the human failure parameters in each of the earthquake hazard curve data and earthquake failure parameters, calculate the probability of human failure in each sub-interval of each of the earthquake hazard curve data. Based on the random failure parameters in each of the earthquake hazard curve data and earthquake failure parameters, calculate the random failure probability of each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data. The core damage probability of each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data is obtained by weighted summation of the vulnerability probability, human-caused failure probability, and random failure probability.

8. The method for analyzing the seismic risk of nuclear power plants according to claim 7, characterized in that, The human factor failure probability P(HFR) satisfies: P(HFE) = P(HFR) * BFF; Wherein, P(HFR) is the probability of random human-caused failure in the human-caused failure parameters, representing the probability of failure when personnel perform operations on all equipment under non-earthquake conditions; BFF is the behavior formation factor in the human-caused failure parameters, representing the amplification factor that leads to the probability of failure when personnel perform operations on all equipment under earthquake conditions.

9. The method for analyzing the seismic risk of nuclear power plants according to claim 7, characterized in that, The step of generating risk data for each seismic hazard curve based on the number of earthquakes, vulnerability probability, and core damage probability corresponding to all sub-intervals in each seismic hazard curve data includes: Calculate the average number of earthquake occurrences across all sub-intervals in each of the earthquake hazard curve data sets to obtain the earthquake occurrence frequency corresponding to each of the earthquake hazard curve data sets; Calculate the average vulnerability probability of all sub-intervals in each of the earthquake hazard curve data to obtain the vulnerability data corresponding to each of the earthquake hazard curve data; Calculate the average core damage probability of all sub-intervals in each of the earthquake hazard curve data to obtain the core damage data corresponding to each of the earthquake hazard curve data; Record the earthquake occurrence frequency, vulnerability data, and core damage data for each of the earthquake hazard curve data to generate the corresponding risk data group.

10. A system for analyzing the seismic risk of a nuclear power plant, characterized in that, include: The acquisition unit is used to acquire seismic failure parameters, random failure parameters, and multiple different seismic hazard curve data; wherein, the seismic hazard curve data represents the correspondence between peak ground acceleration and earthquake occurrence frequency; The division unit is used to divide the peak ground acceleration into multiple sub-intervals in each of the earthquake hazard curve data, and to calculate the number of earthquakes corresponding to each sub-interval; The first calculation unit is used to calculate the vulnerability probability of each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data based on each earthquake hazard curve data and earthquake failure parameters. The second calculation unit is used to calculate the core damage probability of each sub-interval in each of the earthquake hazard curve data based on each of the earthquake hazard curve data, earthquake failure parameters and random failure parameters; The generation unit is used to generate a risk data group for each earthquake hazard curve data based on the number of earthquakes, vulnerability probability, and core damage probability corresponding to all sub-intervals in each earthquake hazard curve data.

11. An electronic device, characterized in that, The electronic device includes: One or more processors; A storage device for storing one or more programs, which, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the electronic device to implement the method for analyzing the seismic risk of a nuclear power plant as described in any one of claims 1 to 9.

12. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, It stores a computer program that, when executed by the computer's processor, causes the computer to perform the method for analyzing the seismic risk of a nuclear power plant as described in any one of claims 1 to 9.

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