Method and system for evaluating health effects of nuclear accidents based on double-threshold dynamic correction

Abstract

The application provides a nuclear accident health effect evaluation method and system based on double-threshold dynamic correction, and the nuclear accident health effect evaluation method comprises the following steps: S1, collecting the radiation dose of each organ, and establishing a basic information database; S2, based on the information of step S1, evaluating the early health effect, including early death risk evaluation and early damage risk evaluation; S3, based on the survival, evaluating the cancer health effect, including cancer death risk evaluation and cancer damage risk evaluation. The application can accurately evaluate the early health effect and the cancer health effect after a nuclear accident, and provide a theoretical basis and technical support for nuclear accident radiation influence evaluation and emergency decision making. Relying on double-threshold dose, the dose efficacy correction factor and the survivor correction factor are comprehensively considered, and the problems that the cancer risk obtained by extension in the low-dose area is overestimated and the risk is overestimated due to cell death in the high-dose area are comprehensively solved.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The present application relates to the field of radiation protection, in particular to a nuclear accident health effect evaluation method and system based on double threshold dynamic correction. BACKGROUND

[0002] In the field of radiation protection of nuclear power, when a nuclear accident occurs, the airborne radioactive material released by the reactor will cause radiation to the population downwind. In the short term, the exposed population may suffer early death and damage after receiving a large dose of radiation. At the same time, survivors of a large dose of radiation may suffer chronic fatal and non-fatal cancers, even if they only receive mild or moderate radiation, they may also cause chronic fatal or non-fatal cancers.

[0003] However, the existing health effect evaluation lacks comprehensive, accurate and applicable models and methods, and it is difficult to meet the needs of nuclear accident radiation impact evaluation and emergency decision-making.

[0004] For example, the existing method commonly used at present has the following four defects:

[0005] I. Limitations of early health effect model.

[0006] The traditional Weibull risk function only supports a single dose threshold determination and cannot quantify the health effects of different time windows. If a high dose of radiation is received in a short time, it will be more harmful than chronic radiation due to the failure of repair mechanisms, and it is necessary to consider the influence of radiation dose on the length of time of irradiation.

[0007] II. Early health effects and cancer health effects are fragmented, and the accuracy of cancer risk in the high-dose area is insufficient.

[0008] Early health effects and cancer health effects use independent models, resulting in fragmented risk assessment and misestimation of cancer risk. In the high-dose area, cell death will lead to a decrease in cancer risk, and the fragmentation of early health effects and cancer health effects will result in overestimation of cancer risk.

[0009] III. The integration of linear extrapolation cancer health risk model is not enough, and the accuracy of cancer risk in the low-dose area is insufficient.

[0010] Early studies generally believe that the radiation dose is linearly related to the risk of cancer, that is, the radiation dose increases, and the risk of cancer also rises in proportion, which is the core of the linear no-threshold model. The model provides the basis for the development of early radiation protection standards. However, with the in-depth of continuous research, a large number of experimental data and epidemiological investigations show that the actual situation is more complex. A large number of research teams found that the risk of cancer in the low dose region obtained by linear extrapolation through mathematical models has the possibility of overestimation in the long-term tracking study of atomic bomb survivors and medical radiation patients. From the cell level, the quadratic response relationship can better explain the complex change process of cell damage and repair, so some scholars also introduce the quadratic response relationship and propose the relative risk model.

[0011] In addition, in the evaluation of the cancer risk that can be caused by nuclear accidents, the industry generally uses the LNT model. There is still a lack of integration of the linear no-threshold model and the relative risk model by making full use of epidemiological survey data.

[0012] Four, lack of health effect evaluation software system, the accuracy of the cancer risk in the low dose region is insufficient.

[0013] In the current field of radiation protection, there is still no software system that can quantitatively evaluate the early health effect risk and the cancer health effect risk. In order to meet the needs of scientific research and engineering practice, it is urgent to develop an advanced software system. The system not only covers early academic ideas and integrates the theories accepted by the industry, but also includes new knowledge of current technology development, and can thoroughly and comprehensively clarify the complex effects of radiation on human health in nuclear accidents, and provide key technical support for nuclear accident emergency response and radiation-exposed population health management.

[0014] Therefore, the inventors of the present application designed a nuclear accident health effect evaluation method and system based on double-threshold dynamic correction to overcome the above technical problems. SUMMARY

[0015] The technical problem solved by the present application is to overcome the defects in the prior art that there is a lack of software system for special quantitative evaluation of early health effect risk and cancer health effect risk, and to provide a nuclear accident health effect evaluation method and system based on double-threshold dynamic correction.

[0016] The present application solves the above technical problems by the following technical solutions:

[0017] A nuclear accident health effect evaluation method based on double-threshold dynamic correction, characterized in that the nuclear accident health effect evaluation method comprises the following steps:

[0018] S1, collect the radiation dose of each organ, and establish a basic information database;

[0019] S2, based on the information of step S1, evaluating early health effects, including early mortality risk evaluation and early damage risk evaluation;

[0020] S3, based on the basis of survivors, evaluating cancer health effects, including cancer mortality risk evaluation and cancer damage risk evaluation.

[0021] According to an embodiment of the present application, the basic information library comprises: early mortality health effect basic information library, early damage health effect basic information library, segmented LNT mode basic information library, quadratic-linear combination mode basic information library.

[0022] According to an embodiment of the present application, the step S2 comprises:

[0023] S 21 , based on the early mortality health effect basic information library and the early damage health effect basic information library, reading library file information to generate selected library data sets;

[0024] S 22 , reading input files to obtain the names of each target organ and corresponding doses;

[0025] S 23 , initializing early health effect calculation data, establishing an organ and disease mapping system, and determining whether the input target organ is associated with early mortality effects or early damage effects;

[0026] If associated, proceed to step S 24 ; if not associated, proceed to step S 26 ;

[0027] S 24 , determining whether the early mortality risk dose threshold or the early damage risk dose threshold is reached; if reached, proceed to step S 25 ; if not reached, proceed to step S 26 ;

[0028] S 25 , calculating the early mortality risk or early damage risk corresponding to the target organ;

[0029] S 26 , determining whether all organ loop calculations are completed; if completed, proceed to step S 27 ; if not completed, return to step S 23 ;

[0030] S 27 , calculating the total early stage mortality risk or total early stage damage risk.

[0031] According to one embodiment of the present application, the formula for calculating the total early stage mortality risk is:

[0032]

[0033] where TRskFat represents the total early stage mortality risk, dimensionless; HazFat i represents the hazard corresponding to early stage mortality effect i, dimensionless.

[0034] According to one embodiment of the present application, the formula for calculating the total early stage injury risk is:

[0035]

[0036] where TRskInj represents the total early stage injury risk, dimensionless; HazInj i represents the hazard corresponding to early stage injury effect i, dimensionless.

[0037] According to one embodiment of the present application, the step S3 comprises:

[0038] S 31 , performing mode selection, matching the application mode to read the corresponding basic information base, and generating the selected base data set;

[0039] S 32 , reading the input file to obtain the names of each target organ and the corresponding dose;

[0040] S 33 , initializing the cancer risk calculation data, establishing the organ-cancer mapping system, and calling the early stage mortality risk data;

[0041] S 34 , judging whether the dose of the target organ reaches the first type threshold value; if yes, calculating the cancer mortality risk or cancer injury risk based on the linear relationship; if no, calculating the cancer mortality risk or cancer injury risk based on the quadratic relationship;

[0042] S 35 , judging whether the dose of the target organ reaches the second type threshold value; if yes, considering the impact of high dose killing biological cells by relying on the survivor correction factor; if no, focusing on the dose efficacy correction;

[0043] S 36 , judging whether the loop calculation of all organs is completed; if yes, entering step S 37 ; if no, returning to step S 34 ;

[0044] S 37 , calculating the total cancer mortality risk or total cancer injury risk.

[0045] According to an embodiment of the present application, the step S 34 includes:

[0046] When the dose of the target organ is less than or equal to the first threshold value, the death risk of cancer i is calculated using a quadratic response relationship, and the formula is:

[0047]

[0048] When the dose of the target organ is greater than the first threshold value, the death risk of cancer i is calculated using a linear response relationship, and the formula is:

[0049]

[0050] Wherein, i represents a certain type of cancer; R 1,i represents the death risk of cancer i; CF i represents the death risk factor of cancer i, 1 / Sv; Dose i represents the cumulative dose of the related organ of cancer i, Sv; D 1,i represents the first threshold value of cancer i, Sv; Efa i represents the linear coefficient of the risk and dose response function of cancer i; Efb i represents the quadratic coefficient of the risk and dose response function of cancer i; Acs i represents the sensitivity factor of the exposed population to a certain type of cancer i; 1-TRskFat represents the survivor correction factor.

[0051] According to an embodiment of the present application, the step S 34 includes:

[0052] When the dose of the target organ is less than or equal to the first threshold value, the damage risk of cancer i is calculated using a quadratic response relationship:

[0053]

[0054] When the dose of the target organ is greater than the first threshold value, the damage risk of cancer i is calculated using a linear formula:

[0055]

[0056] Wherein, i represents a certain type of cancer; R 2,i represents the damage risk of cancer i; CI i represents the damage risk factor of cancer i, 1 / Sv; Dose i represents the cumulative dose of the related organ of cancer i, Sv; D 1,i represents the first threshold value of cancer i, Sv; Efa i represents the linear coefficient of the risk and dose response function of cancer i; Efb iquadratic term coefficient of the dose response function representing cancer i risk; Acs i representing sensitivity factor of the exposed population to cancer i; 1-TRskFat represents survivorship correction factor.

[0057] According to one embodiment of the present application, the step S 35 includes:

[0058] When the dose of the target organ is less than the second type threshold value, then a dose effectiveness factor is introduced to correct the cancer damage risk, with the formula:

[0059]

[0060] wherein RskCF i represents cancer i death risk after dose effectiveness correction; R 1,i represents cancer i death risk; Dose i represents cancer i related organ cumulative dose, Sv; D 2,i represents cancer i second type threshold value, Sv; DDREF i represents cancer i corresponding dose effectiveness factor.

[0061] According to one embodiment of the present application, the step S 35 includes:

[0062] When the dose of the target organ is less than the second type threshold value, then a dose effectiveness factor is introduced to correct the cancer damage risk, with the formula:

[0063]

[0064] wherein RskCI i represents cancer i damage risk after dose effectiveness correction; R 2,i represents cancer i damage risk; Dose i represents cancer i related organ cumulative dose, Sv; D 2,i represents cancer i second type threshold value, Sv; DDREF i represents cancer i corresponding dose effectiveness factor.

[0065] According to one embodiment of the present application, the step S 37 includes:

[0066] The formula for calculating the total cancer death risk is: ;

[0067] wherein TRskCF represents total cancer death risk of each type; RskCF i represents cancer i death risk after dose effectiveness correction;

[0068] The total damage risk calculation formula of cancer is: ;

[0069] Wherein, TRskCI represents the total damage risk of each type of cancer; RskCI i represents the damage risk of a certain type of cancer i after considering the dose efficacy correction.

[0070] The application also provides a nuclear accident health effect evaluation system based on double-threshold dynamic correction, characterized in that the nuclear accident health effect evaluation system adopts the nuclear accident health effect evaluation method based on double-threshold dynamic correction as described above.

[0071] The nuclear accident health effect evaluation system comprises a basic information database.

[0072] An early health effect estimation subsystem is configured to evaluate early health effects according to information of the basic information database and radiation doses of each organ.

[0073] A cancer health effect estimation subsystem is configured to evaluate cancer health effects based on survivors.

[0074] The application also provides an electronic device, characterized in that the electronic device comprises a processor and a memory, the memory stores programs or instructions executable on the processor, and the programs or instructions are executed by the processor to implement the nuclear accident health effect evaluation method based on double-threshold dynamic correction as described above.

[0075] The application also provides a readable storage medium, characterized in that the readable storage medium stores programs or instructions, and the programs or instructions are executed by a processor to implement the nuclear accident health effect evaluation method based on double-threshold dynamic correction as described above.

[0076] The positive progress effect of the application is that:

[0077] The nuclear accident health effect evaluation method and system based on double-threshold dynamic correction can accurately evaluate early health effects and cancer health effects after a nuclear accident, and provide a theoretical basis and technical support for nuclear accident radiation impact evaluation and emergency decision-making.

[0078] The application has many advantages, such as:

[0079] I. Introducing a time-dependent parameter correction mechanism to break through the limitations of the early health effect model. The application specifically solves the technical pain points of the distortion of the dynamic model of early health effects, improves the accuracy and reliability of the evaluation by using scientific and reasonable half death / damage parameter settings, and provides more accurate data support for nuclear accident emergency decision-making.

[0080] II. Create a cascade risk calculation pipeline to solve the problem of early cancer health effect model fragmentation. The evaluation method and system provided by the application comprehensively considers the early health effects (including early death and damage) and cancer health effects (including cancer death and damage) after a nuclear accident, and closely connects the two health effects by introducing a survivor correction factor.

[0081] III. Build a double-threshold correction mechanism to improve the accuracy of cancer risk calculation. The application relies on a double-threshold dose, and comprehensively considers the dose efficacy correction factor and the survivor correction factor, fully solving the problem of overestimation of cancer risk in the low-dose region obtained by extension, and the problem of overestimation of risk caused by cell death in the high-dose region.

[0082] IV. Explore a dual-mode calculation engine to improve system application flexibility. The correction model and software system of the application have strong universality and scalability, and can flexibly select the calculation method of the secondary-linear combination mode or the segmented LNT mode of cancer risk, and can adjust and optimize the basic parameters according to the actual situation. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0083] The above and other features, properties, and advantages of the present application will become more apparent by the following description with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments, in which the same reference numerals are used throughout the drawings and represent the same features, and wherein:

[0084] Figure 1 For the nuclear accident health effect evaluation method based on double-threshold dynamic correction of the application, a cancer risk response schematic diagram.

[0085] Figure 2 For the nuclear accident health effect evaluation method based on double-threshold dynamic correction of the application, a flowchart of the early health effect subsystem.

[0086] Figure 3 For the nuclear accident health effect evaluation method based on double-threshold dynamic correction of the application, a flowchart of the early health effect subsystem.

[0087] Figure 4 For the nuclear accident health effect evaluation method based on double-threshold dynamic correction of the application, a flowchart of the early health effect subsystem. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0088] In order to make the above-mentioned purposes, features and advantages of the application more obvious and easy to understand, the specific embodiments of the application will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0089] Embodiments of the application will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. Reference will now be made in detail to the preferred embodiments of the application, examples of which are illustrated in the accompanying drawings. Wherever possible, the same reference numbers will be used throughout the drawings to refer to the same or like parts.

[0090] In addition, although the terms used in the present application are selected from publicly known and used terms, some of the terms mentioned in the description of the present application can be created by the applicant in his or her own judgment, and the detailed meanings thereof are described in relevant parts of the description herein.

[0091] In addition, the present application should be understood not only by the actual terms used, but also by the meanings implied by each term.

[0092] As Figures 1 to 3 shown, the present application discloses a nuclear accident health effect evaluation method based on double-threshold dynamic correction, which comprises the following steps:

[0093] Step S1, collect the radiation dose of each organ, and establish a basic information library.

[0094] Preferably, the basic information library comprises: early death health effect basic information library, early damage health effect basic information library, segmented LNT mode basic information library, quadratic-linear combination mode basic information library.

[0095] As Figure 1 shown, for the quadratic-linear combination mode, in the low-dose area, the risk of cancer death or cancer damage increases with the increase of dose, and the AB arc segment response relationship (quadratic function response) is adopted. When the dose exceeds the first threshold D1, the cancer risk is linearly related to the dose, and the BC straight line segment response relationship is adopted. When the dose reaches the second threshold D2, the influence of the killing of high-dose biological cells is considered by means of a survivor correction factor, and the CE straight line segment response relationship is adopted. At the same time, for the case where the dose is less than D2, a dose efficacy correction factor is introduced to consider the problem that the risk of low-dose extrapolation is overestimated.

[0096] For the LNT linear mode, unlike the existing one-segment processing method, segmented processing is performed. When the dose is less than the second threshold D2, the AC straight line segment response relationship is adopted, and the dose efficacy correction factor is considered. When the dose reaches D2, the CE straight line segment response relationship is adopted, and the survivor correction factor is considered.

[0097] Step S2, based on the information of step S1, evaluate the early health effects, including early death risk evaluation and early damage risk evaluation.

[0098] As Figure 3 shown, preferably, the step S2 comprises:

[0099] Step S 21 , based on the early death health effect basic information library and the early damage health effect basic information library, read the library file information, and generate the selected library data set.

[0100] Step S 22 , reading the input file, obtaining the target organ name and corresponding dose.

[0101] Step S 23 , initializing the early health effect calculation data, establishing the organ-disease mapping system, determining whether the input target organ is associated with early death effect or early damage effect;

[0102] If associated, go to step S 24 ; if not associated, go to step S 26 .

[0103] Step S 24 , determine whether the early death risk dose threshold or the early damage risk dose threshold is reached; if reached, go to step S 25 ; if not reached, go to step S 26 .

[0104] Step S 25 , calculate the early death risk or early damage risk corresponding to the target organ.

[0105] Unlike the prior art, the present application closely combines the correlation between individual exposure time and damage effect, integrates the time factor into the Weber risk function, and modifies the risk calculation method of various early death and damage health effects, including:

[0106] I. Early death risk

[0107] In the constructed organ-early death disease mapping system, attention is paid to the hematopoietic syndrome caused by excessive irradiation of bone marrow, the gastrointestinal syndrome caused by excessive irradiation of small intestine or colon, and the lung syndrome caused by excessive irradiation of lung. These diseases may have a risk of death.

[0108] According to the irradiation time corresponding to a target organ, the appropriate median lethal dose is selected to form a time-dependent early death risk model (for example, the median lethal dose of the target organ bone marrow corresponding to the hematopoietic syndrome is 3.8Sv for 0-1 days, 7.6Sv for 2-14 days, and 15Sv for 15-30 days).

[0109] The specific model is as follows:

[0110]

[0111]

[0112] Wherein, RskFat i represents the risk of early death health effect i, which is dimensionless; HazFat iHazard corresponding to early death health effect i, dimensionless; ThreFat i Dose threshold corresponding to early death health effect i, Sv; Dose i,T Target organ dose corresponding to early death health effect i, Sv; HafFat i,T Half-time dose corresponding to early death health effect i, Sv; IdxFat i Exponential term in risk formula for early death health effect i, shape parameter.

[0113] II. Early injury risk

[0114] In the constructed organ-early injury condition mapping system, vomiting and diarrhea caused by a certain amount of irradiation of the stomach, pneumonia caused by a certain amount of irradiation of the lung, erythema and epidermal damage caused by a certain amount of irradiation of the skin, and thyroiditis and hypothyroidism caused by a certain amount of irradiation of the thyroid are concerned.

[0115] According to the irradiation time corresponding to a certain target organ, the appropriate half-injury dose is selected to form a time-dependent early injury risk model (for example, for pneumonia, the target organ of the lung corresponds to the half-injury dose, 10Sv for 0-1 days, 160Sv for 2-14 days, 370Sv for 15-200 days, and 920Sv for 201-365 days).

[0116] The specific model is as follows:

[0117]

[0118]

[0119] Wherein, RskInj i Risk corresponding to early injury effect i, dimensionless; HazInj i Hazard corresponding to early injury effect i, dimensionless; ThreInj i Dose threshold corresponding to early injury effect i, Sv; HafInj i,T Half-time dose corresponding to early injury effect i, Sv; IdxInj i Exponential term in risk formula for early injury effect i, shape parameter.

[0120] Step S 26 , determine whether all organ loop calculations are completed, if completed, enter step S 27 ; if not completed, return to step S 23 .

[0121] Step S 27, calculate the early stage total mortality risk or the early stage total injury risk.

[0122] Preferably, the formula for calculating the early stage total mortality risk is:

[0123]

[0124] where TRskFat represents the early stage total mortality risk, dimensionless; HazFat i represents the hazard corresponding to the early stage mortality health effect i, dimensionless.

[0125] The formula for calculating the early stage total injury risk is:

[0126]

[0127] where TRskInj represents the early stage total injury risk, dimensionless; HazInj i represents the hazard corresponding to the early stage injury health effect i, dimensionless.

[0128] Step S3, based on the survivors, evaluate the cancer health effects, including cancer mortality risk evaluation and cancer injury risk evaluation.

[0129] As Figure 4 shown, preferably, the step S3 includes:

[0130] Step S 31 , perform mode selection, match the application mode to read the corresponding basic information library (including LNT mode / second-order-linear combination mode basic information library) to generate the selected library data set.

[0131] Step S 32 , read the input file to obtain the names of each target organ and the corresponding dose.

[0132] Step S 33 , initialize the cancer risk calculation data, establish the organ-cancer mapping system, and call the early stage mortality risk data.

[0133] Step S 34 , determine whether the dose of the target organ reaches the first type threshold value (the threshold value for the segmented LNT mode is equivalent to 0); if yes, calculate the cancer mortality risk or cancer injury risk based on the linear relationship; if no, calculate the cancer mortality risk or cancer injury risk based on the quadratic relationship.

[0134] Step S 35 , determine whether the dose of the target organ reaches the second type threshold value; consider appropriate cancer risk correction methods, if yes, rely on the survivor correction factor to consider the impact of high-dose killing of biological cells; if no, rely mainly on dose efficacy correction.

[0135] Step S 36 , judge whether the calculation of all organ cycle is completed; if yes, go to step S 37 ; if no, return to step S 34 .

[0136] Step S 37 , calculate the total cancer death risk or total cancer damage risk.

[0137] Unlike the prior art, the present application introduces early death risk into the cancer risk calculation model, solves the model fragmentation problem, and improves the high-dose risk accuracy. At the same time, the various cancer risk models are revised and integrated, and the cancer risk segmentation dynamic calculation is realized based on double thresholds.

[0138] Mainly include:

[0139] I. Cancer death risk

[0140] In the constructed organ-cancer mapping system, attention is paid to bone cancer caused by irradiation of bone surface, breast cancer caused by irradiation of chest, lung cancer caused by irradiation of lung, gastric cancer caused by irradiation of stomach, liver cancer caused by irradiation of liver, bladder cancer caused by irradiation of bladder, thyroid cancer caused by irradiation of thyroid, colon cancer caused by irradiation of intestinal tract, etc.

[0141] When the dose of the target organ is less than or equal to the first threshold (i.e. Dose i ≤ D 1,i ), the death risk of cancer i is calculated using a quadratic response relationship (relative risk model), which can reduce the cancer risk in the low-dose region, and the specific formula is:

[0142]

[0143] When the dose of the target organ is greater than the first threshold (i.e. Dose i > D 1,i ), the death risk of cancer i is calculated using a linear response relationship (LNT model), and the formula is:

[0144]

[0145] Wherein, i represents a type of cancer; R 1,i represents the death risk of cancer i; CF i represents the cancer i death risk factor, 1 / Sv; Dose i represents the cumulative dose of cancer i related organ, Sv; D 1,i represents the first threshold of cancer i, Sv; Efa i represents the linear coefficient of cancer i risk and dose response function; Efb iQuadratic coefficient of the dose response function representing the risk of cancer i; Acs i Sensitivity factor of the exposed population to cancer i; 1-TRskFat represents the survivorship correction factor.

[0146] As described in the above model, the present application introduces the survivorship correction factor 1-TRskFat, which evaluates the cancer risk on the basis of the survivorship, and solves the problem of the split between the early health effect model and the cancer health effect model.

[0147] In addition, when the target organ dose is less than the second threshold, the dose effectiveness factor is introduced to correct the above-mentioned cancer death risk, so as to reduce the overestimated cancer risk in the low dose area, and the specific formula is as follows:

[0148]

[0149] Wherein, RskCF i represents the death risk of cancer i considering the dose effectiveness correction; R 1,i represents the death risk of cancer i; Dose i represents the cumulative dose of the organ related to cancer i, Sv; D 2,i represents the second threshold of cancer i, Sv; DDREF i represents the corresponding dose effectiveness factor of cancer i.

[0150] The total death risk of cancer is calculated by the following formula: .

[0151] Wherein, TRskCF represents the total death risk of each type of cancer; RskCF i represents the death risk of cancer i considering the dose effectiveness correction.

[0152] II. Cancer damage risk

[0153] The cancer damage risk and the death risk are processed in the same way.

[0154] When the dose of the target organ is less than or equal to the first threshold (i.e. Dose i ≤D 1,i ), the damage risk of cancer i is calculated by the quadratic response relationship:

[0155]

[0156] When the dose of the target organ is greater than the first threshold (Dose i > D 1,i ), the damage risk of cancer i is calculated by the linear formula:

[0157]

[0158] Where, i represents a certain type of cancer; R 2,i represents the risk of cancer i damage; CI i represents the risk factor of cancer i damage, 1 / Sv; Dose i represents the cumulative dose of cancer i related organs, Sv; D 1,i represents the first type threshold value of cancer i, Sv; Efa i represents the linear coefficient of the risk and dose response function of cancer i; Efb i represents the quadratic term coefficient of the risk and dose response function of cancer i; Acs i represents the sensitivity factor of the exposed population to a certain type of cancer i; 1-TRskFat represents the survivor correction factor.

[0159] When the dose of the target organ is less than the second type threshold value, then the dose effectiveness factor is introduced to correct the risk of cancer damage, so as to reduce the overestimated risk of cancer, and the specific formula is as follows:

[0160]

[0161] Where, RskCI i represents the risk of a certain type of cancer i damage after considering the dose effectiveness correction; R 2,i represents the risk of cancer i damage; Dose i represents the cumulative dose of cancer i related organs, Sv; D 2,i represents the second type threshold value of cancer i, Sv; DDREF i represents the corresponding dose effectiveness factor of cancer i.

[0162] The formula for calculating the total damage risk of cancer is as follows: .

[0163] Where, TRskCI represents the total damage risk of each type of cancer; RskCI i represents the risk of a certain type of cancer i damage after considering the dose effectiveness correction.

[0164] The nuclear accident health effect evaluation method based on double threshold dynamic correction provided by the application can be used for estimating the health effects of radiation after an accident, and can provide support for nuclear emergency action and evaluation.

[0165] According to the above description, in the nuclear accident health effect evaluation method based on double threshold dynamic correction, the following improvements can be made as alternative solutions:

[0166] I. Without introducing a time-dependent parameter correction mechanism

[0167] The alternative can adopt a traditional Weibull risk function, only support a single dose threshold judgment, and not quantify the health effects of different time windows. It can perform early health effect risk assessment based on fixed parameters, which is a simplified model in the prior art that does not consider time dependence.

[0168] II. Not constructing a cascade risk calculation pipeline

[0169] The alternative can independently calculate early health effects (death / damage) and cancer health effects (death / damage), without introducing a survivor correction factor 1-TRskFat to connect the two. That is, early risk and cancer risk are evaluated separately, ignoring the correlation that "early death risk affects cancer risk assessment (cancer risk is calculated on the basis of survivors)", and the evaluation of the two types of risk can be completed separately.

[0170] III. Not using a double-threshold correction mechanism

[0171] The alternative can continue to use a single linear no-threshold model (LNT), which adopts a linear response relationship for all dose regions (low and high doses), without introducing a dose effectiveness correction factor (which overestimates the risk in the low dose region without correction) and a survivor correction factor (which overestimates the risk due to cell death in the high dose region without correction).

[0172] IV. Not using a dual-mode calculation engine

[0173] The alternative can only support one calculation mode (such as a single LNT mode or a single quadratic-linear combination mode), giving up the ability to flexibly select a calculation method. For example, only the LNT mode is used to handle all dose scenarios, or only the quadratic-linear combination mode, which can still perform risk assessment in certain scenarios, which is an extension of the single mode in the prior art.

[0174] The above-mentioned various alternatives can achieve the purpose of the present application, and are within the protection scope of the present application, and will not be repeated again.

[0175] The present application also provides a nuclear accident health effect evaluation system based on double-threshold dynamic correction, which adopts the nuclear accident health effect evaluation method based on double-threshold dynamic correction as described above. The nuclear accident health effect evaluation system comprises: a basic information database, an early health effect estimation subsystem for evaluating early health effects according to the information of the basic information database and the radiation dose collected from each organ, and a cancer health effect estimation subsystem for evaluating cancer health effects based on survivors.

[0176] The application further provides an electronic device, comprising a processor and a memory, wherein the memory stores programs or instructions executable on the processor, and the programs or instructions are executed by the processor to realize the method for evaluating health effects of nuclear accidents based on dynamic correction of double thresholds.

[0177] The application further provides a readable storage medium, wherein the readable storage medium stores programs or instructions, and the programs or instructions are executed by a processor to realize the method for evaluating health effects of nuclear accidents based on dynamic correction of double thresholds.

[0178] According to the above description, the method and system for evaluating health effects of nuclear accidents based on dynamic correction of double thresholds have the following characteristics:

[0179] I. Time-dependent parameter correction mechanism

[0180] According to the irradiation time, the half death / damage dose is dynamically selected (for example, in the early death risk, the half death dose of bone marrow of hematopoietic syndrome is segmented according to time: 3.8Sv for 0-1 days, 7.6Sv for 2-14 days, etc.), and the time factor is integrated into the Weber risk function.

[0181] The time-dependent parameter correction mechanism breaks through the time limitation of the traditional early health effect model, improves the risk assessment accuracy in the low-dose short-time (such as acute irradiation) and long-time irradiation scenarios through scientific segmented parameter setting, and solves the pain point of “time window health effect cannot be quantified” in the prior art.

[0182] II. Cascade risk calculation pipeline

[0183] The early health effect (death / damage) and the cancer health effect (death / damage) are integrated, the early death risk and the cancer risk are associated by introducing 1-TRskFat (survivor correction factor) (that is, the cancer risk is calculated based on the survivor population after early death), and the cascade calculation process of “early risk→cancer risk” is constructed.

[0184] The cascade risk calculation pipeline solves the problem of “early and cancer health effect models are separated” in the prior art (for example, the cancer risk in the high-dose area is overestimated because the early death is not corrected), can realize the dynamic association of the two types of effects, and ensures the systematicness and consistency of the risk calculation.

[0185] III. Double threshold correction mechanism

[0186] For cancer risk, a double threshold (the first threshold D1,i distinguishes quadratic response from linear response, and the second threshold D2,i introduces dose effectiveness correction or relies on survivorship correction) integrates the cancer risk model, corrects the overestimated risk in the low dose area (Dosei < D2,i), and corrects the overestimated risk due to cell death in the high dose area (Dosei ≥ D2,i), to realize segmented dynamic risk calculation.

[0187] The double threshold correction mechanism breaks through the precision defects of the traditional LNT model in the low dose area (overestimation) and the high dose area (cell death influence not considered), realizes the integrated correction of the LNT model and the relative risk model through the double threshold and the correction factor, and comprehensively improves the accuracy of cancer risk calculation.

[0188] Four, double-mode calculation engine

[0189] It supports quadratic-linear combination mode (AB-BC-CE segmented response, quadratic in low dose, linear in medium dose, and survivorship correction in high dose) and segmented LNT mode (AC-CE segmentation, linear correction in low dose, and survivorship correction in high dose), and can adjust the basic parameters (such as risk coefficient, correction factor, etc.) according to the actual scene.

[0190] The double-mode calculation engine develops a health effect risk software system, improves the adaptability of the system to different irradiation scenes (such as acute high dose and chronic low dose), and enhances the universality and expansibility of risk assessment through flexible selection of calculation mode and parameter optimization.

[0191] In summary, the nuclear accident health effect evaluation method and system based on double threshold dynamic correction of the present application form a "cascade risk calculation pipeline", integrating early health effects and cancer health effects in the same system. By first evaluating the risk of early death and then evaluating the risk of cancer based on the survivors, the model fragmentation problem is effectively solved. In early health effect evaluation, the dynamic corrected median death / damage dose is introduced, and appropriate basic parameters are selected based on the irradiation time, solving the model limitation. In cancer health effect evaluation, the double-mode double-threshold method system is constructed based on the progress of domestic and foreign basic research, which not only retains the LNT linear mode, but also introduces the quadratic-linear combination mode, and implements segmented risk dynamic switching based on double thresholds for various modes, solving the problem of insufficient model integration.

[0192] For those skilled in the art, the above disclosure of the application is only as an example, and does not constitute a limitation on the present application. Although it is not explicitly stated here, those skilled in the art can make various modifications, improvements and corrections to the present application. Such modifications, improvements and corrections are suggested in the present application, so such modifications, improvements and corrections still belong to the spirit and scope of the exemplary embodiments of the present application.

[0193] Also, the use of "a" or "an" or "the" are intended to mean one or more unless otherwise specifically indicated. Furthermore, the use of relative terms, such as "about," "approximately," or the like, is intended to convey that the measurement is close to the point and / or the standard being described. Other definitions will be apparent from their use in the descriptions and examples described herein.

[0194] Similarly, it is to be noticed that the term "comprising", used in the description, is not intended to exclude other features, structures, or steps. Thus, other features, structures, or steps can be provided, in addition to those explicitly described. Moreover, it is to be noticed that the term "comprising" is used in the description is specified according to the applicable law as indicating the inclusion of a feature, structure, or step, or group thereof, but not to the exclusion of others.

[0195] Although specific embodiments of the application have been described above, one of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that the application is not limited to these embodiments, but encompasses any changes, alterations and modifications to these embodiments falling within the scope of the application as defined and set forth in the following claims.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating health effects of a nuclear accident based on double-threshold dynamic correction, characterized in that, The nuclear accident health effect evaluation method comprises the following steps: S1, collecting radiation doses of each organ and establishing a basic information database; S2, based on the information of step S1, evaluating early health effects, including early death risk assessment and early damage risk assessment; S3, based on the survival, evaluating cancer health effects, including cancer death risk assessment and cancer damage risk assessment; The step S3 comprises: S 31 , mode selection is made, the application mode is matched to read the corresponding basic information base, and the selected base data set is generated; S 32 , reading an input file to obtain the names of the target organs and the corresponding doses; S 33 , initializing cancer risk calculation data, establishing an organ-cancer mapping system, and calling early death risk data obtained by the early death risk assessment; S 34 , determining whether the dose to the target organ reaches a first threshold value; if yes, calculating the risk of cancer death or the risk of cancer damage based on a linear relationship; if no, calculating the risk of cancer death or the risk of cancer damage based on a quadratic relationship; S 35 , determining whether the dose to the target organ reaches a second threshold value; if yes, considering the effect of killing biological cells by high dose by means of survivorship correction factor; if no, focusing on the correction of dose effectiveness; The survival correction factor is equal to 1-TRSKFAT, wherein TRSKFAT represents the total early death risk; S 36 , determine whether the calculation of all organ circulation is completed; if yes, go to step S 37 ; if no, return to step S 34 ; S 37 , calculating a total cancer death risk or a total cancer damage risk.

2. The method for evaluating health effects of a nuclear accident based on a double threshold dynamic correction according to claim 1, wherein, The basic information database comprises: early death health effect basic information database, early damage health effect basic information database, segmented LNT mode basic information database, and quadratic-linear combination mode basic information database.

3. The method for evaluating health effects of nuclear accidents based on dynamic correction of double thresholds according to claim 1, characterized in that, The step S2 comprises: S 21 , based on the early mortality health effect basis information library, early damage health effect basis information library, read library file information, generate selected library dataset; S 22 , reading an input file to obtain each target organ name and corresponding dose; S 23 , initialize early health effect calculation data, establish organ and condition mapping system, determine whether the input target organ is associated with early death effect or early damage effect; If associated, go to step S 24 ; if not associated, go to step S 26 ; S 24 , determining whether the early mortality risk dose threshold or the early damage risk dose threshold is reached; if so, proceeding to step S 25 ; if not, proceeding to step S 26 ; S 25 , calculating an early mortality risk or an early damage risk corresponding to the target organ; S 26 , it is determined whether the calculation of all organs is completed, and if so, the process proceeds to step S 27 ; if not, the process returns to step S 23 ; S 27 , calculating an early stage overall mortality risk or an early stage overall impairment risk.

4. The method for evaluating health effects of a nuclear accident based on a double threshold dynamic correction according to claim 3, characterized in that, The calculation formula of the total early death risk is: ， where TRskFat represents the total risk of premature mortality, dimensionless; HazFat i represents the hazard corresponding to the health effect i of premature mortality, dimensionless.

5. The method for evaluating health effects of nuclear accidents based on dynamic correction of double thresholds according to claim 3, characterized in that, The calculation formula of the total early damage risk is: ， where TRskInj represents the total risk of early injury effect, dimensionless; HazInj i represents the hazard of early injury effect i, dimensionless.

6. The method for evaluating health effects of nuclear accidents based on dynamic revision of double thresholds according to claim 1, wherein, The step S 34 includes: When the dose of the target organ is less than or equal to the first threshold value, the death risk of cancer i is calculated by using a quadratic response relationship, and the formula is: ， When the dose of the target organ is greater than the first threshold value, the death risk of cancer i is calculated by using a linear response relationship, and the formula is: ， where i represents a certain type of cancer; R 1,i represents the risk of death from cancer i; CF i represents the risk factor of death from cancer i, 1 / Sv; Dose i represents the cumulative dose of cancer i related organs, Sv; D 1,i represents the first type threshold value of cancer i, Sv; Efa i represents the linear coefficient of the risk and dose response function of cancer i; Efb i represents the quadratic term coefficient of the risk and dose response function of cancer i; Acs i represents the sensitivity factor of the exposed population to a certain type of cancer i; 1-TRskFat represents the survivor correction factor.

7. The method for evaluating health effects of nuclear accidents based on dynamic revision of double thresholds according to claim 1, wherein, The step S 34 includes: When the dose of the target organ is less than or equal to the first threshold value, the damage risk of cancer i is calculated by using a quadratic response relationship: ， When the dose of the target organ is greater than the first threshold value, the damage risk of cancer i is calculated by using a linear formula: ， where i represents a certain type of cancer; R 2,i represents the risk of cancer i damage; CI i represents the risk factor of cancer i damage, 1 / Sv; Dose i represents the cumulative dose of cancer i related organs, Sv; D 1,i represents the first type threshold value of cancer i, Sv; Efa i represents the linear coefficient of the risk and dose response function of cancer i; Efb i represents the quadratic term coefficient of the risk and dose response function of cancer i; Acs i represents the sensitivity factor of the exposed population to a certain type of cancer i; 1-TRskFat represents the survivorship correction factor.

8. The method for evaluating health effects of nuclear accidents based on dynamic revision of double thresholds according to claim 1, wherein, The step S 35 includes: When the dose of the target organ is less than the second threshold value, a dose effectiveness factor is introduced to correct the cancer death risk, and the formula is: ， where RskCF i represents the risk of death from cancer i after correction for dose effectiveness; R 1,i represents the risk of death from cancer i; Dose i represents the cumulative dose to organs related to cancer i, Sv; D 2,i represents the second type threshold value for cancer i, Sv; DDREF i represents the dose effectiveness factor for cancer i.

9. The method for evaluating health effects of nuclear accidents based on dynamic revision of double thresholds according to claim 1, wherein, The step S 35 includes: When the dose of the target organ is less than the second threshold value, a dose effectiveness factor is introduced to correct the cancer damage risk, and the formula is: ， where Rskci i represents the risk of cancer i damage considering the dose effectiveness correction; R 2,i represents the risk of cancer i damage; Dose i represents the cancer i related organ cumulative dose, Sv; D 2,i represents the cancer i second type threshold, Sv; DDREF i represents the cancer i corresponding dose effectiveness factor.

10. The method for evaluating health effects of a nuclear accident based on a double threshold dynamic correction according to claim 1, wherein, Step S 37 comprises: The total death risk of cancer is calculated by the formula: , where TRskCFrepresents the total death risk of each type of cancer; RskCF i represents the death risk of each type of cancer i after considering the dose efficacy correction; The total damage risk calculation formula of cancer is: , where TRskci represents the total risk of damage for each type of cancer; Rskci i represents the risk of damage for each type of cancer i, taking into account the dose effectiveness correction.

11. A nuclear accident health effect assessment system based on double threshold dynamic correction, characterized in that, The nuclear accident health effect evaluation system adopts the nuclear accident health effect evaluation method based on double-threshold dynamic correction according to any one of claims 1-10; The nuclear accident health effect evaluation system comprises a basic information database; An early health effect estimation subsystem is configured to evaluate early health effects according to information of the basic information database and collected radiation doses of each organ; A cancer health effect estimation subsystem is configured to evaluate cancer health effects based on the survival.

12. An electronic device, comprising: The electronic device comprises a processor and a memory, wherein the memory stores programs or instructions executable on the processor, and the programs or instructions are executed by the processor to implement the nuclear accident health effect evaluation method based on double-threshold dynamic correction according to any one of claims 1-10.

13. A readable storage medium, characterized by, The readable storage medium stores programs or instructions, and the programs or instructions are executed by the processor to implement the nuclear accident health effect evaluation method based on double-threshold dynamic correction according to any one of claims 1-10.

Images