Power system time-sharing reliability calculation method and system based on medium and long term balance analysis

By employing a time-sharing reliability calculation method for power systems based on medium- and long-term balance analysis, the time-varying start-up modes of conventional generating units and new energy sources are simulated in a refined manner. This solves the problem of evaluation result deviation in traditional methods and achieves efficient dynamic evaluation of system power supply reliability.

CN122178436APending Publication Date: 2026-06-09NORTHWEST BRANCH OF STATE GRID POWER GRID CO +1
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
NORTHWEST BRANCH OF STATE GRID POWER GRID CO
Filing Date
2026-02-24
Publication Date
2026-06-09

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Traditional reliability assessment methods are ill-suited for high-proportion renewable energy systems and cannot accurately simulate the uncertainties of unit start-up methods and renewable energy output, leading to discrepancies between assessment results and actual risk levels.

Method used

A time-sharing reliability calculation method for power systems based on medium- and long-term balance analysis is adopted. The start-up and shutdown status of conventional units is obtained through medium- and long-term simulation, a multi-state equivalent model of new energy is constructed, and joint convolution calculation is performed to refine the evaluation of the power supply reliability of the system.

Benefits of technology

It enables dynamic and probabilistic assessment of system power supply reliability, improves the accuracy and applicability of reliability assessment, and can more accurately reflect the impact of new energy uncertainties on the system.

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Abstract

The application discloses a power system time-sharing reliability calculation method and system based on medium and long term balance analysis, comprising: obtaining conventional unit installed capacity, forced outage rate and hourly start-stop plan, and simultaneously obtaining hourly load and new energy predicted output; determining the conventional unit in operation, and then performing convolution operation to obtain the available capacity distribution of the conventional unit in the period; sequentially performing joint convolution of the output of each state new energy and the available capacity distribution of the conventional unit in each hour, to form the probability distribution of the total available capacity of the system in the period; comparing the total available capacity probability distribution of each period with the load demand in the period, and calculating the expected value of LOLP and EENS in the period according to the probability of each new energy output state, to realize hourly evaluation. The application can integrate the time-varying start mode of the conventional unit, fully reflect the uncertainty of the new energy, make the reliability evaluation more close to the actual dispatching logic of the power system, and realize time sequence dynamic evaluation of the power supply reliability of the system.
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