The invention relates to the technical field of power supply, in particular to a
new energy station power prediction method and
system based on a weather forecast
large model, and the method comprises the following steps: detecting a weather forecast difference value and output fluctuation, marking an abnormal time period, calculating a
voltage and
frequency deviation to generate a correction threshold value, and matching
phase deviation to generate a smooth reference. And analyzing
inertia and response rate, applying dynamic attenuation, and collecting
tie line power to adjust, predict and generate an output result. According to the method, abnormal time periods are screened through reverse correlation of meteorological difference and output fluctuation, error conduction is blocked,
irradiance prediction is corrected through a
voltage frequency integral quantity
closed loop,
power grid response is improved, actually measured
wind speed rolling mean value is matched with AGC
phase offset, output smoothness is optimized,
inertia time
delay and
frequency modulation rate dynamic matching is performed, and attenuation constraints are adjusted. The frequency risk is reduced, the
tie line fluctuation and deviation superimposed effect is quantified, the attenuation range is dynamically adjusted, the
power transmission robustness is enhanced, and wind and light curtailment is reduced.