A photovoltaic power prediction method and medium

By acquiring and grouping image-power aligned samples, a multi-step prediction model was used to solve the problem of information interference in short-term photovoltaic power prediction, achieving more accurate and stable prediction results.

CN122418633APending Publication Date: 2026-07-17湖南工商大学
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Patent Information

Application Number
CN202610846189.9
Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2026-06-12
Publication Date
2026-07-17

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Existing technologies struggle to effectively combine sky images, historical photovoltaic power, and image-derived physical diagnostic features in short-term photovoltaic power prediction, leading to information interference and instability in the prediction model. This is especially true when cloud cover changes rapidly, resulting in response lag and significant prediction bias.

Method used

By acquiring timestamped sky images and photovoltaic power data, a clear-sky reference power is calculated, image-derived physical diagnostic features are extracted and grouped according to physical mechanisms, image-power aligned samples are constructed, and a multi-step prediction model is used to predict photovoltaic power.

Benefits of technology

It improves the accuracy and interpretability of short-term photovoltaic power prediction, reduces interference from heterogeneous information, provides a more complete input basis, and ensures that the model can respond in a timely manner when cloud conditions change rapidly.

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Abstract

一种光伏功率预测方法及介质,涉及光伏技术领域,其包括如下步骤:S1,获取原始观测数据;S2,获取晴空参考功率,获取图像‑功率对齐样本;S3,从图像‑功率对齐样本中获取图像派生物理诊断特征;S4,根据图像派生物理诊断特征进行分组获取分组后的图像派生物理量;S5,构成历史窗口样本;S6,对分组后的图像派生物理量分别进行编码,得到各物理机制组表征;将所述各物理机制组表征与图像序列表征、功率历史序列表征进行融合,得到融合表征对象;S7,将所述融合表征对象输入预测模型以输出未来多个预测时距的光伏功率预测结果。本发明根据物理特征将图像特征划分为4组,再对各组分别进行时序编码,提高了预测的准确性。
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