A micro-grid resilience scheduling method based on load prediction and dynamic threshold control

The microgrid resilient dispatching method, which combines high-precision load forecasting and dynamic threshold control, solves the problems of insufficient load forecasting accuracy and rigid dispatching under extreme fault scenarios. It achieves reliable power supply for critical loads and minimizes system losses, thereby improving the resilience and recovery efficiency of the microgrid.

CN122418705APending Publication Date: 2026-07-17HUNAN UNIV
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
HUNAN UNIV
Filing Date
2026-03-23
Publication Date
2026-07-17

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Existing technologies struggle to achieve high-precision load forecasting under extreme fault scenarios, suffer from rigid scheduling thresholds, and lack load hierarchical management. Consequently, microgrid resilient scheduling strategies cannot effectively respond to dynamic load fluctuations, making it difficult to ensure power supply to critical loads and minimize system losses.

Method used

By deeply integrating high-precision load forecasting, dynamic threshold adaptive adjustment, and load grading control, and employing multi-dimensional data acquisition, two-stage decomposition processing, phase space reconstruction, and deep learning prediction, a dynamic threshold sequence is generated. Combined with mathematical models of energy supply and storage equipment, an optimized scheduling model is constructed to generate a resilient scheduling scheme.

Benefits of technology

It achieves synergistic optimization of rigid protection of critical loads and minimization of overall system losses under extreme disturbances, thereby improving the survivability and recovery efficiency of microgrids.

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Abstract

本发明公开了一种基于负荷预测与动态阈值控制的微电网韧性调度方法,包括:获取多能源微电网运行所需的多维度数据;基于多维度数据,执行负荷预测步骤;以负荷预测曲线为基础,结合预测误差、安全裕度及不确定性裕度,生成动态阈值,并对动态阈值进行平滑处理和上下限约束,得到用于调度决策的动态阈值序列;建立多能源微电网中各供能设备与储能设备的数学模型,并基于负荷优先级分级信息,建立数学约束;以约束条件,构建以最小化系统综合损失为目标的优化调度模型,综合损失包括调度成本与削荷惩罚成本;求解优化调度模型,生成并输出微电网的韧性调度方案。提升了微电网在极端扰动下的生存能力与恢复效率。
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