Power interchange system

Abstract

To appropriately set a margin of power demand prediction used when power-transmitting power is calculated, according to a power interchange system in which power generated at a power generation point is transmitted to a demand point by a power transmission network.SOLUTION: A power interchange system according to the present invention applies a determined correction value to demand prediction while determining the correction value to the demand prediction according to an absolute value of a difference, when the difference between the demand prediction and a demand result does not fall within the range of an allowable difference.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 13

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a technique for transmitting electric power generated at a power generation base to a demand base via a power transmission network. [Background technology]

[0002] Self-dispatch is when a business operator with a power generation facility uses the power grid owned by the power company to transmit the electricity generated by the facility between bases. When implementing self-dispatch, it is necessary to submit a transmission plan to the operating organization (e.g., Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators: OCCTO) before starting the dispatch (e.g., the day before). Furthermore, while implementing self-dispatch, it is necessary to transmit the electricity as planned in advance at a specified time interval (e.g., 30 minutes). If the actual transmitted power deviates from the planned power (imbalance), a penalty is generally imposed. The electricity transmitted from the generation base to the demand base is sometimes called interchange power.

[0003] The following Patent Document 1 describes a technology that aims to "distribute power to a plurality of power consumers, including a power consumer equipped with a distributed power source in a specified area (community), and to stabilize the power system at low cost" and "includes an energy storage facility 6h that stores energy input to or output from a distributed power source 4 equipped in any of a plurality of power consumers 3a to 3n in a community C, and a power demand control device 6d that allocates a predetermined amount of power purchased by a power buying and selling device and the total amount of power generated by the distributed power sources 4 in the entire community C to the power consumers in the community C according to their respective power demands, and when there is a difference between the total power demand and the total power supply during the allocation, controls the operation of the distributed power sources 4 via a distributed power source control device to adjust the power supply and demand so as to eliminate the difference" (see abstract).

[0004] The following Patent Document 2 aims to provide an electric energy control system that can comply with regulations and can keep the difference between demand and supply within an allowable error according to the regulations for each predetermined time interval, and describes the following technology (see abstract): "The electric energy control system of the present invention is an electric energy control system that controls the difference between the demand and supply of electric energy in a business area for each predetermined time based on regulations to be equal to or less than an allowable value, and includes a power transmission network that supplies electric energy to consumers included in the business area, individual power generation devices installed at the places of the consumers included in the business area, a calculation unit that calculates the demand and supply for each predetermined time at the consumers, and a control unit that controls the operation of the individual power generation devices, the calculation unit compares the actual usage at the consumer in a certain predetermined time with the predicted demand, and the control unit increases the electric energy consumption at the consumer when the actual usage falls below the predicted demand, and operates the individual power generation device to supply the consumer with the shortage of electric energy when the actual usage exceeds the predicted demand." [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0005] [Patent Document 1] JP 2002-010500 A [Patent Document 2] JP 2017-175786 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0006] The scheduled power to be sent can be calculated by subtracting the predicted value of the power demand at the power generation base from the predicted value of the amount of power generated by the power generation facility, and multiplying it by a surplus capacity coefficient as necessary based on the predicted value of the power demand at the demand base. Therefore, when calculating the scheduled power to be sent, it is desirable to accurately predict the power demand at the demand base.

[0007] In power interchange, if the power transmitted from a power generation site to a demand site cannot be consumed at the demand site, a large penalty fee may be imposed. On the other hand, in recent years, the power demand trends of consumers can fluctuate greatly due to the electrification / automation of transport equipment and the introduction of private power generation facilities. In addition, demand forecasts can be significantly off due to sudden events such as sudden changes in temperature and changes in the operation plan of private power generation facilities. Therefore, it is highly likely that the power transmitted from a power generation site to a demand site cannot be consumed at the demand site, and a penalty fee will be imposed.

[0008] In view of the above circumstances, it is considered desirable for a power generation base to secure a certain degree of margin for a demand forecast. In the conventional techniques such as those in Patent Documents 1 and 2, the margin for such a demand forecast is not fully considered. This is considered to be because the possibility that interchanged power cannot be consumed at a demand base is not fully considered.

[0009] The present invention has been made in consideration of the above-mentioned problems, and aims to appropriately set a margin for power demand forecasting used when calculating transmitted power in a power interchange system in which power generated at a power generation base is transmitted to a demand base via a power transmission network. [Means for solving the problem]

[0010] If the difference between the demand forecast and the actual demand is not within the range of the allowable difference, the power interchange system of the present invention determines a correction value for the demand forecast in accordance with the absolute value of the difference, and applies the determined correction value to the demand forecast. Effect of the Invention

[0011] According to the power interchange system of the present invention, in a power interchange system in which power generated at a power generation base is transmitted to a demand base via a power transmission network, it is possible to appropriately set a margin for a power demand forecast used when calculating the transmitted power. Problems, configurations, effects, etc. other than those described above will become clear from the description of the following embodiments. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0012] [Figure 1] 1 is a configuration diagram of a power interchange system according to a first embodiment. [Figure 2A] 1 is a diagram illustrating a process of learning a learning model stored in memory unit 13. FIG. [Figure 2B] This is a diagram explaining the process of predicting electricity demand using a trained learning model. [Diagram 3] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a procedure for evaluating the predictive accuracy of a learning model. [Figure 4] FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating an example of the results of evaluating the prediction accuracy of a learning model. [Diagram 5] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of an error between a predicted value and an actual value of power demand over a 24-hour period. [Figure 6] 11 is a table illustrating an allowable difference. [Figure 7] 13 shows an example of an allowable difference table stored in the storage unit 13. [Figure 8] FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating an example of a change in the allowable difference over time. [Figure 9] FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating the degree of deviation. [Figure 10] 11 is a diagram for explaining a procedure in which the error calculation unit 112 calculates the deviation degree. FIG. [Figure 11] 1 is an example of deviation data. [Figure 12] FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating a demand margin. [Figure 13] FIG. 13 is a diagram showing a state in which a demand margin is adjusted. [Figure 14] FIG. 13 is a conceptual diagram showing how the demand margin keeps the error within the range of the allowable difference. [Figure 15] 11 is a flowchart illustrating a procedure for adjusting the demand margin by the calculation unit 11. [Figure 16] 3 is an example of a user interface provided by the calculation unit 11. [Figure 17] FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating a deviation in the power interchange system according to the second embodiment. [Figure 18] 10 is a flowchart illustrating a procedure for adjusting a demand margin by a calculation unit 11 in the second embodiment. [Figure 19] FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating the degree of deviation in the power interchange system according to the third embodiment. [Figure 20] 11 is a flowchart illustrating a procedure in which a calculation unit 11 determines a demand margin at each demand base in the third embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0013] <Embodiment 1> Fig. 1 is a configuration diagram of a power interchange system according to a first embodiment of the present invention. The power interchange system is a system in which power generated at a supply base 1 is transmitted to a demand base 2 via a power transmission network. The demand base 2 includes a power consumption facility 21 that consumes power. The supply base 1 includes a calculation unit 11, a control unit 12, a storage unit 13, and a power supply unit 14.

[0014] The calculation unit 11 sets a margin for the predicted value of the power demand at the demand base. A specific example will be described later. The calculation unit 11 includes a prediction calculation unit 111, an error calculation unit 112, a supply amount acquisition unit 113, a demand amount acquisition unit 114, and a demand margin calculation unit 115. The operation of these functional units will be described later.

[0015] The control unit 12 includes an interchange amount determination device 121 and an interchange point determination device 122. The interchange amount determination device 121 determines the amount of power to be transmitted to the demand base 2 based on the power demand forecast value corrected using the demand margin set by the calculation unit 11. When there are multiple demand bases 2, the interchange point determination device 122 determines which of the demand bases 2 is to be the power transmission destination.

[0016] The storage unit 13 stores a learning model that has been previously subjected to machine learning to predict the power demand at the demand base 2. The storage unit 13 also stores data describing an allowable difference, which will be described later. The power supply unit 14 transmits the power generated at the supply base 1 to the demand base 2.

[0017] FIG. 2A is a diagram for explaining the process of learning the learning model stored in the memory unit 13. The prediction calculation unit 111 inputs data describing past parameters (e.g., parameters that may affect demand forecast, such as temperature, humidity, day of the week, and past demand records) at the demand base 2 to the learning model. The learning model calculates a predicted value of power demand by weighting the input data. The prediction calculation unit 111 calculates a prediction error by comparing the predicted value and actual value of power demand. The prediction calculation unit 111 updates the weighting so that the prediction error is minimized. The learning model can be trained by repeating this process. As the learning algorithm, a known cognitive technique such as backpropagation can be used.

[0018] FIG. 2B is a diagram for explaining a process of predicting power demand using a trained learning model. The prediction calculation unit 111 inputs data similar to that shown in FIG. 2A for the day on which prediction is to be performed to the learning model. The learning model calculates a predicted value of power demand by weighting the input data. The prediction calculation unit 111 obtains the predicted value.

[0019] FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining the procedure for evaluating the prediction accuracy of a learning model. The error calculation unit 112 performs the evaluation according to this procedure using past weather data and actual power demand. First, the explanatory variables of the evaluation results and the evaluation period are determined. The evaluation is performed by inputting the data to be evaluated into the learning model and calculating the error between the predicted value and the actual value over the evaluation period. The evaluation result is stored in the memory unit 13. The explanatory variables are data items of the learning data input into the learning model when the learning model is trained. The evaluation period is a period during which data suitable for use as learning data can be obtained, for example, the period of "convergence 1" described later.

[0020] FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating the results of evaluating the prediction accuracy of a learning model. The absolute error between the predicted and actual values ​​of electricity demand converges to a certain range during the period in which the evaluation is carried out. The absolute error after this convergence is shown as "convergence 1" in FIG. 4. On the other hand, there are times during the evaluation period when the absolute error temporarily increases. This tendency is particularly evident at demand centers where electricity demand fluctuates greatly due to the circumstances described above. This temporarily increased absolute error is shown as "convergence 2" in FIG. 4.

[0021] Convergence 2 also converges to a certain range in the long term. This is shown in Figure 4, where the peak of convergence 2 gradually decreases. However, even though it gradually decreases in the long term, it is not desirable to use convergence 2 in order to always ensure the accuracy of the demand forecast. Therefore, in reality, the only measurement data that can be used to forecast electricity demand at such demand bases is convergence 1. In other words, at demand bases where electricity demand fluctuates greatly, the data that can be used as basic data for demand forecasting is limited.

[0022] Fig. 5 is a diagram illustrating the error between the predicted value and the actual value of the power demand in 24 hours. The absolute difference between the upper and lower limits of the error is defined as the absolute error. In addition to the long-term convergence tendency of the error as explained in Fig. 4, the error range of the power demand forecast tends to be highly dependent on the demand base.

[0023] Figure 6 is a table explaining the allowable difference. In a demand base where the power demand fluctuates greatly, the period suitable for obtaining data to be input to the learning model (i.e., explanatory variables) is limited, as explained in Figure 4. Here, it is assumed that 10 weeks' worth of data has been obtained.

[0024] In the first three weeks of the ten weeks, the learning results have not yet converged sufficiently, so it is assumed that there will be a large error between the predicted and actual values. Therefore, the allowable difference allowed for the error during this period is set to a somewhat large value (20% or more in this example). In the next four weeks (weeks 4-7), the learning results are assumed to have converged sufficiently, so the allowable difference is set to a small value (3-7% in this example). The error does not necessarily decrease as the amount of available data increases; for example, there are cases where the error becomes larger, as in "convergence 2" explained in Figure 4. The final two weeks (weeks 8-10) correspond to this, and the allowable difference is slightly increased.

[0025] Fig. 7 shows an example of an allowable difference table stored in storage unit 13. The allowable difference explained in Fig. 6 tends to differ depending on the period length for which data suitable for input to the learning model can be obtained (i.e., the period length of the available explanatory variables), so the allowable difference table also defines the allowable difference for each period length. Here, data examples for period lengths of 15 weeks, 5 weeks, and 5 days are shown. The data structure for each period length is the same as in Fig. 6.

[0026] The allowable difference table can be created by calculating the error between the demand forecast and the demand result over the acquisition period of the explanatory variables, and determining the allowable difference for that error for each period within the acquisition period (for example, if the acquisition period is 15 weeks, for each period of each of the patterns A to E in FIG. 7). The error may be calculated by the calculation unit 11 or by other appropriate means. The allowable difference can be determined in principle so as to decrease with the passage of time within the acquisition period, while taking into consideration a temporary increase in error such as convergence 2. The calculation unit 11 may determine the allowable difference according to these rules, or the user may determine it manually.

[0027] Figure 8 is a diagram illustrating the change in the allowable difference over time. It is expected that the error between the predicted and actual values ​​of power demand will become smaller over time. Therefore, the allowable difference, which is permitted as the error between the two, will also become smaller over time. The allowable difference is a value with a range, so as shown in Figure 8, the allowable difference at each point in time has a numerical range at that point in time. Both the median of the allowable difference and the range of the allowable difference itself will become smaller over time. However, in periods when the error temporarily becomes large, such as in "convergence 2," the allowable difference may also become temporarily large.

[0028] FIG. 9 is a diagram explaining the deviation. The error calculation unit 112 calculates the absolute value of the error (absolute error) between the predicted value and the actual value of the power demand for a certain day (the implementation day in FIG. 9). The error calculation unit 112 further identifies the median of the allowable difference for the same day (the average of the upper and lower limits of the allowable difference). The error calculation unit 112 calculates the absolute difference between the absolute error and the median as the deviation. The use of the deviation will be described later.

[0029] FIG. 10 is a diagram for explaining the procedure by which the error calculation unit 112 calculates the deviation. First, the implementation date described in FIG. 9 is specified, and the error between the predicted value and the actual value of the power demand on that day is calculated. The allowable difference table described in FIG. 7 is obtained from the storage unit 13. The error calculation unit 112 specifies which error pattern in the allowable error table the calculated error corresponds to. For example, the error pattern can be specified by using the elapsed period from the point when the data to be input to the learning model is started to be obtained (for example, if the period during which the explanatory variables can be used is 15 weeks and the implementation date is the 9th week, the error pattern is C_15w). The error calculation unit 112 determines whether the error is included within the allowable difference range of the specified error pattern. If it is outside the allowable difference range, the deviation is calculated by the procedure described in FIG. 9.

[0030] Fig. 11 is an example of deviation data. The error calculation unit 112 stores the deviation calculated by the procedure of Fig. 10 as deviation data in the storage unit 13. The deviation data can be written in the same format as the allowable difference table by adding the deviation.

[0031] Fig. 12 is a diagram explaining the demand margin. The power interchange system determines the power to be transmitted to the demand base 2 based on the power demand forecast value. However, rather than using the demand forecast value as is, a small margin is subtracted from the demand forecast value so that the interchanged power can be reliably consumed at the demand base 2, and the transmission power is determined based on the demand amount after the subtraction.

[0032] Fig. 13 is a diagram showing the state of adjusting the demand margin. The demand margin calculation unit 115 sets the demand margin explained in Fig. 12, for example, by multiplying the demand forecast value by a predetermined ratio. If the demand forecast value after subtracting the demand margin does not fall within the range of the allowable difference, the demand margin calculation unit 115 further adjusts the demand margin to bring the demand forecast value within the range of the allowable difference.

[0033] Specifically, the demand margin can be adjusted as follows. First, in order to ensure that the power transmitted from the supply base 1 can be consumed at the demand base 2, the maximum value of the power demand in the period in which the power supply is conducted needs to be greater than (or the same as) the maximum value of the power supply in that period. Therefore, the demand margin is determined so that the maximum value of the demand forecast value in that period is greater than the maximum value of the power supply in that period. Then, the demand margin is adjusted so that the error between the demand forecast and the actual demand falls within the range of the allowable difference corresponding to that period (i.e., the error is adjusted so that it is equal to or less than the upper limit of the allowable difference). As long as these conditions are satisfied, the adjustment amount of the demand margin may be arbitrary. With these adjustments, the possibility that the demand base 2 can consume the power supply can be kept higher than before the correction value was applied, while the error can be kept within the range of the allowable difference.

[0034] If the demand forecast value is lower than (or the same as) the interchangeable power, there is a possibility that if electricity is transmitted to the demand base 2, it will not be possible for that electricity to be consumed at the demand base 2. Therefore, in such a case, it is desirable to set the interchangeable power to 0 or to a small value below the reference value such that there is a high possibility that the electricity can be consumed at the demand base 2.

[0035] Figure 14 is a conceptual diagram showing how the demand margin keeps the error within the range of the allowable difference. In general, the greater the absolute error deviates from the median of the allowable difference (i.e., the greater the deviation), the greater the adjustment amount of the demand margin that is required.

[0036] FIG. 15 is a flowchart for explaining the procedure of the calculation unit 11 adjusting the demand margin. The demand margin calculation unit 115 acquires the deviation calculated by the error calculation unit 112 and the allowable difference in the period from the storage unit 13. The demand margin calculation unit 115 calculates the initial value of the demand margin, for example, based on the magnitude of the demand forecast value. The supply amount acquisition unit 113 and the demand amount acquisition unit 114 acquire the maximum value of the demand forecast value and the maximum value of the interchanged power, respectively, in the period. The demand margin calculation unit 115 adjusts the demand margin according to the procedure described in FIG. 13, and stores the result in the storage unit 13. The interchange base determination device 122 may determine the priority order of the demand bases that transmit power, for example, according to the procedure described in the third embodiment described later. The interchange amount determination device 121 determines the power to be transmitted to each demand base according to the priority order.

[0037] Fig. 16 is an example of a user interface provided by the calculation unit 11. The user interface can present at least any of the parameters acquired by the calculation unit 11 through the above-mentioned procedures. For example, parameters such as the predicted value of power demand, the actual value of power demand, the difference between them, the allowable difference, and the power to be transmitted to a demand base can be presented. The graph in the lower part of Fig. 16 shows the predicted value and actual value of power demand and the difference between them.

[0038] <Embodiment 2> Fig. 17 is a diagram for explaining the deviation in the power interchange system according to the second embodiment of the present invention. In the first embodiment (Fig. 9), it has been explained that the deviation is the absolute difference between the absolute error of the power demand and the median of the allowable difference. In the second embodiment, it is assumed that the demand base 2 is equipped with a solar cell, and the deviation is corrected (or updated) by taking into account the output fluctuation of the solar cell.

[0039] The solar cell output can be used to cover the power demand at the demand base 2. Therefore, the predicted value of the power demand needs to be calculated taking into account the solar cell output. However, since the output of the solar cell fluctuates over time, this fluctuation needs to be taken into account. In other words, the deviation described in the first embodiment also needs to be calculated taking into account the fluctuation in the output of the solar cell. For example, when calculating the error between the demand forecast value and the actual demand value, the calculation can be performed after adding the maximum fluctuation range of the solar cell output.

[0040] FIG. 18 is a flowchart for explaining the procedure for adjusting the demand margin by the calculation unit 11 in the second embodiment. In addition to the procedure explained in the first embodiment, the calculation unit 11 acquires the output fluctuation range of the solar cell. This value can be acquired, for example, from a history of the output fluctuation range in similar weather conditions in the past. The calculation unit 11 recalculates the error (and the deviation) by adding the maximum fluctuation range of the solar cell output to the error between the demand forecast and the demand actual. The other procedures are the same as those in the first embodiment.

[0041] <Embodiment 3> FIG. 19 is a diagram explaining the deviation in the power interchange system according to the third embodiment of the present invention. When there are multiple demand bases 2, the deviation can be calculated for each demand base. FIG. 19 shows an example of calculations for three demand bases. Since the predicted value and the actual value almost match for base (1), the deviation is almost 0%. Since the deviation for base (2) is within the allowable difference range, the demand margin also falls within that range. Since the deviation for base (3) exceeds the allowable difference range, the demand margin needs to be significantly adjusted.

[0042] FIG. 20 is a flowchart illustrating the procedure in which the calculation unit 11 determines the demand margin at each demand base in the third embodiment. The calculation unit 11 calculates the deviation degree for each demand base in the same manner as in the first embodiment. The calculation unit 11 sets a larger demand margin as the deviation degree increases. In the example described in FIG. 19, base (1) has the smallest demand margin, and base (3) has the largest.

[0043] The calculation unit 11 may further determine the power transmission destination so as to assign higher priority to demand bases with lower deviations (or demand margins) and transmit power in order of priority. For example, the following determination procedure may be considered: (a) transmit power is assigned to demand bases with lower deviations, and if there is surplus generated power, transmit power is assigned to the demand base with the next lower deviation. This procedure is repeated until there is no transmittable power left. (b) The power to be transmitted to each demand base is determined so that the smaller the deviation, the higher the fulfillment rate for power demand. The calculation unit 11 may not implement power interchange for bases with lower priorities (bases with errors exceeding a threshold) regardless of the demand forecast.

[0044] <Modifications of the present invention> The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment, and includes various modified examples. For example, the above-described embodiment has been described in detail to clearly explain the present invention, and is not necessarily limited to those having all of the configurations described. In addition, it is possible to replace a part of the configuration of one embodiment with the configuration of another embodiment, and it is also possible to add the configuration of another embodiment to the configuration of one embodiment. In addition, it is possible to add, delete, or replace a part of the configuration of each embodiment with another configuration.

[0045] In the above embodiment, any known technology can be used as the learning algorithm used by the calculation unit 11 to predict the power demand.

[0046] In the above embodiment, if the calculation unit 11 can control the power consumption equipment 21 equipped in the demand base 2, the deviation may be controlled to fall within the range of the allowable difference. That is, if the actual power demand exceeds the predicted power demand, the power consumption may be reduced, and if the prediction exceeds the actual power demand, the power consumption may be increased.

[0047] In the above embodiments, each functional unit (e.g., calculation unit 11, control unit 12, etc.) provided in supply base 1 can be configured by hardware such as a circuit device that implements these functions, or can be configured by a calculation device such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) executing software that implements these functions. [Explanation of symbols]

[0048] 1: Supply base 11: Arithmetic section 12: Control unit 13: Storage part 14:Power supply section 2: Demand base

Claims

1. A power interchange system that transmits power generated at a power generation base to a demand base via a power transmission network, A calculation unit for predicting the power demand at the demand base; a storage unit for storing data describing an allowable difference between the predicted value and the actual value of the power demand; Equipped with when the difference is not within the range of the allowable difference, the calculation unit determines a correction value for the predicted value in accordance with an absolute value of the difference, and applies the determined correction value to the predicted value, thereby correcting the predicted value; The calculation unit determines the power to be transmitted to the demand base based on the predicted value corrected using the correction value. A power interchange system comprising:

2. When the difference is equal to or greater than an upper limit of the allowable difference, the calculation unit determines a value by which the predicted value is subtracted as the correction value; When the difference is equal to or smaller than a lower limit of the allowable difference, the calculation unit sets the power to be transmitted to the demand base to 0 or a reference value or less.

2. The power interchange system according to claim 1 .

3. The calculation unit determines the correction value so that the predicted value is greater than the power, thereby increasing the possibility that the power demand specified by the predicted value can be consumed at the demand base compared to before the correction value is applied.

2. The power interchange system according to claim 1 .

4. the data describes the allowable difference for each time period within a period during which the calculation unit predicts the power demand, The calculation unit obtains, from the data, the allowable difference corresponding to a time point at which power is transmitted to the demand base during the period, and determines the correction value using the obtained allowable difference.

2. The power interchange system according to claim 1 .

5. the data is constructed by calculating the difference over a predetermined time period and determining the tolerable difference over the predetermined time period based on the calculated difference; the data defines the allowable difference for each length of the predetermined period, The calculation unit obtains, from the data, the allowable difference corresponding to the length of a target period for which the process of determining the power is performed, and determines the correction value using the obtained allowable difference.

2. The power interchange system according to claim 1 .

6. The demand base is configured to generate power using a solar cell, The calculation unit recalculates the difference by adding a fluctuation in the amount of power generated by the solar cell to the predicted value.

2. The power interchange system according to claim 1 .

7. The calculation unit determines a power transmission destination such that the power is transmitted preferentially to a demand base having a smaller difference.

2. The power interchange system according to claim 1 .

8. The calculation unit does not transmit the electric power to the demand base where the difference exceeds a threshold value, regardless of the predicted value.

2. The power interchange system according to claim 1 .

9. The calculation unit determines the power to be transmitted to each of the two or more demand bases, The calculation unit determines a power transmission destination such that the power is transmitted in ascending order of the demand base with the smallest difference, and if there is a surplus of power generation, the power is transmitted to the demand base with the next smallest difference.

7. The power interchange system according to claim 6.

10. The calculation unit determines the power to be transmitted to each of the two or more demand bases, The calculation unit determines power to be transmitted to each of the demand bases in ascending order of the difference such that a fulfillment rate for the power demand increases.

7. The power interchange system according to claim 6.

11. The computing unit provides a user interface; The user interface presents at least one of the predicted value, the actual value, the difference, the allowable difference, and the power.

2. The power interchange system according to claim 1 .

12. The demand base includes an electric power consumption facility that consumes the electric power demand, The calculation unit adjusts the power consumed by the power consumption equipment so that the difference falls within the range of the allowable difference.

2. The power interchange system according to claim 1 .

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