Repair plan simulation system, repair plan simulation method and repair plan simulation program

Abstract

To automatically create a repair plan based on a result of predicting deterioration of an infrastructure facility, and modify the repair plan to evaluate a capital investment for the infrastructure facility.SOLUTION: One aspect of the present invention comprises: a deterioration prediction part that predicts a degree of deterioration of an infrastructure facility for each management section based on state data of the infrastructure facility; a repair plan creation part that evaluates the infrastructure facility based on the degree of deterioration and characteristic data, groups multiple infrastructure facilities based on an evaluation result, selects a repair method for the grouped multiple infrastructure facilities, calculates a cost when repairing the grouped multiple infrastructure facilities using the selected repair method, and creates a repair plan for each specified period and for each management section by determining a repair period for multiple infrastructure facilities grouped based on the cost and budget information; and a simulation part that predicts a lifecycle cost of the infrastructure facility and the transition of the integrity of the infrastructure facility based on the repair plan for each specified period.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a repair plan simulation system, a repair plan simulation method, and a repair plan simulation program. [Background technology]

[0002] Conventionally, there are known technologies for managing infrastructure facilities, etc. This type of technology quantifies the current state of the infrastructure to grasp (inspect) the state, predicts deterioration from the grasped state, and calculates the lifespan.

[0003] For example, the equipment maintenance and management support system described in Patent Document 1 is an equipment maintenance and management support system for facilities and equipment managed by water supply and sewerage businesses, and is equipped with a computer system having a data input means, an information display means, a memory means for storing a database, and a processing means, and an information network for communicating information between the computer system and water supply and sewerage facilities. The calculation processing means collects inspection and maintenance information data for equipment related to water supply or sewerage facilities and plant information data indicating the operating status of the equipment from the monitoring and control server via an information network, evaluates the quantitative health of the equipment using statistical methods based on multiple status monitoring data items for each piece of equipment managed by the water supply and sewerage facilities, predicts through statistical analysis how the health of the equipment will deteriorate over time, and predicts the time when the equipment will reach its operating limit at which it can provide the minimum functionality necessary to continue managing and operating the water supply and sewerage facilities, evaluates risk management indicators for continuing to operate the water supply and sewerage facilities normally and quantitative risk levels for determining the priority of equipment replacement based on the frequency of equipment failures or problems and information on the social impact on management and operation in the event that the equipment is stopped due to a failure, calculates the equipment costs required for each fiscal year in the future, and calculates a medium- to long-term equipment replacement demand forecast and a decision on whether to advance or postpone the replacement period so that the annual replacement demand costs fall within the equipment replacement budget. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2014-16691 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] In the above-mentioned repair of infrastructure facilities, if repairs are carried out after the condition of the infrastructure facilities exceeds a threshold, there is a problem that the cost of repairs and the risk of breakdown of the infrastructure facilities increase. Another problem is that managing a large number of infrastructure facilities means that it takes time to prioritize repairs and to formulate repair plans for the infrastructure facilities. Furthermore, existing technologies have the problem that the results of infrastructure deterioration predictions cannot be effectively utilized.

[0006] The present invention has been made in consideration of the above-mentioned problems, and aims to provide a repair plan simulation system, a repair plan simulation method, and a repair plan simulation program that can automatically create a repair plan based on the results of predicting the deterioration of infrastructure equipment, and modify the repair plan to consider capital investment in the infrastructure equipment. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] (1) One aspect of the present invention is a repair plan simulation system including: an acquisition unit that acquires status data of infrastructure equipment, characteristic data of the infrastructure equipment, and budget information indicating a budget for each predetermined period; a deterioration prediction unit that predicts a degree of deterioration of the infrastructure equipment for each managed section based on the status data acquired by the acquisition unit; a repair plan creation unit that evaluates the infrastructure equipment based on the degree of deterioration predicted by the deterioration prediction unit and the characteristic data acquired by the acquisition unit, groups multiple infrastructure equipment based on the evaluation results, selects a repair method for the grouped multiple infrastructure equipment, calculates the cost of repairing the grouped multiple infrastructure equipment using the selected repair method, and determines the repair timing of the grouped multiple infrastructure equipment based on the calculated cost and the budget information acquired by the acquisition unit, thereby creating a repair plan for each predetermined period and for each managed section; and a simulation unit that predicts the life cycle cost of the infrastructure equipment and the transition of the health of the infrastructure equipment based on the repair plan for each predetermined period created by the repair plan creation unit.

[0008] (2) In one aspect of the present invention, the deterioration prediction unit calculates an MCI (Maintenance Control Index) value of the infrastructure equipment as the degree of deterioration, and the repair plan creation unit prioritizes the infrastructure equipment based on the MCI value, determines infrastructure equipment whose MCI value is below a threshold in order of priority as being subject to repair, and groups multiple infrastructure equipment whose MCI value is below the threshold and has consecutive sections.

[0009] (3) One aspect of the present invention includes a reception unit that receives user operations, and the deterioration prediction unit calculates the degree of deterioration of multiple pieces of infrastructure equipment based on the infrastructure equipment condition data, infrastructure equipment characteristic data, and the repair method and repair timing of the infrastructure equipment in the repair plan created by the repair plan creation unit. The simulation unit reselects infrastructure equipment to be repaired based on at least one of a request to change the MCI value threshold, a request to change the repair method or repair timing, and a request to change the budget upper limit for each fiscal year, all received by the reception unit, and may re-predict the life cycle cost of the infrastructure equipment and the transition in the health of the infrastructure equipment when the reselected infrastructure equipment is repaired.

[0010] (4) One aspect of the present invention is a repair plan simulation method including the steps of: an information processing device acquiring status data of infrastructure equipment, characteristic data of infrastructure equipment, and budget information indicating a budget for each predetermined period; a step of the information processing device predicting a degree of deterioration of infrastructure equipment for each management section based on the status data; a step of the information processing device evaluating the infrastructure equipment based on the degree of deterioration and the characteristic data and grouping multiple infrastructure equipment based on the evaluation results; a step of the information processing device selecting a repair method for the grouped multiple infrastructure equipment; a step of the information processing device calculating a cost when the grouped multiple infrastructure equipment is repaired using the selected repair method; a step of the information processing device determining repair times for the grouped multiple infrastructure equipment based on the calculated costs and budget information acquired by the acquisition unit, thereby creating a repair plan for each predetermined period and for each management section; and a step of the information processing device predicting a change in the life cycle cost of the infrastructure equipment and the health of the infrastructure equipment based on the repair plan for each predetermined period.

[0011] (5) One aspect of the present invention is a repair plan simulation program that causes a computer of an information processing device to execute the following steps: acquiring status data of infrastructure equipment, characteristic data of the infrastructure equipment, and budget information indicating a budget for each specified period; predicting the degree of deterioration of the infrastructure equipment for each management section based on the status data; evaluating the infrastructure equipment based on the degree of deterioration and the characteristic data and grouping multiple infrastructure equipment based on the evaluation results; selecting a repair method for the grouped multiple infrastructure equipment; calculating the cost of repairing the grouped multiple infrastructure equipment using the selected repair method; creating a repair plan for each specified period and for each management section by determining the repair timing of the grouped multiple infrastructure equipment based on the calculated cost and the budget information acquired by the acquisition unit; and predicting the changes in the life cycle cost of the infrastructure equipment and the health of the infrastructure equipment based on the repair plan for each specified period. [Effects of the Invention]

[0012] According to one aspect of the present invention, a repair plan can be automatically created based on the results of predicting the deterioration of infrastructure equipment, and the repair plan can be revised to consider capital investment in the infrastructure equipment. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0013] [Figure 1] 1 is a block diagram showing an example of the configuration of a repair plan simulation system 1 according to an embodiment. [Figure 2] FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a specific example of a repair plan simulation device 100 according to an embodiment. [Figure 3] 10A and 10B show examples of output results in an embodiment, where (a) shows an example of accumulated cost values over a period of one year, (b) shows an example of single-year cost values, (c) shows the progress of health, and (d) shows an example of a long-term repair plan. [Figure 4] FIG. 10 is a diagram for explaining optimization of a repair plan in an embodiment. [Figure 5] 3 is a flowchart showing an example of processing in the repair plan simulation system 1 in the embodiment. [Figure 6] FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of road condition data according to the embodiment. [Figure 7] FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of road characteristic data according to the embodiment. [Figure 8] FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of budget data according to the embodiment. [Figure 9] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of a repair plan according to an embodiment. [Figure 10] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of a simulation result of soundness according to the embodiment. [Figure 11] 10 is a flowchart showing an example of a re-simulation process after a repair time is changed according to an embodiment. [Figure 12] FIG. 10 is a diagram for explaining optimization of a repair plan in an embodiment. [Figure 13] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of a simulation result according to the embodiment. [Figure 14] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating another example of a simulation result according to the embodiment. [Figure 15] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating another example of a simulation result according to the embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0014] A repair plan simulation system, a repair plan simulation method, and a repair plan simulation program to which the present invention is applied predict the long-term deterioration level of infrastructure equipment, create a repair plan for the infrastructure equipment, and predict (simulate) the transition of the life cycle cost and the soundness of the infrastructure equipment based on the repair plan in order to support the work of optimizing the long-term maintenance cost (life cycle cost: LCC) of the infrastructure equipment. The repair plan simulation system, etc., shows the results of simulating the transition of the life cycle cost and the soundness of the infrastructure equipment to the infrastructure equipment manager based on the operation of the infrastructure equipment manager, for example, and allows the manager to consider optimizing the repair plan and consider capital investment in the infrastructure equipment. In the embodiment, the infrastructure is a road, but it may be other social infrastructure such as a bridge, waterworks, or power facility. Optimizing a repair plan means changing parameters related to the repair method and cost of the infrastructure and resimulating the plan so as to balance the repair cost and the condition of the infrastructure.

[0015] <Configuration of Repair Planning Simulation System 1> First, the overall configuration and processing contents of the repair plan simulation system 1 according to the embodiment will be described. FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an example of the configuration of a repair plan simulation system 1 according to an embodiment. The repair plan simulation system 1 is a repair plan creation system that creates a repair plan for infrastructure facilities. The repair plan simulation system 1 includes, for example, a repair plan simulation device 100, a user terminal device 200, and a storage device 300. The repair plan simulation device 100, the user terminal device 200, and the storage device 300 are connected to, for example, a communication network. Each device connected to the communication network includes a communication interface such as a network interface card (NIC) or a wireless communication module (not shown in FIG. 1). The communication network includes, for example, the Internet, a wide area network (WAN), a local area network (LAN), a cellular network, etc.

[0016] The user terminal device 200 is a terminal device operated by a user, such as a personal computer, a smartphone, a tablet terminal, etc. In the embodiment, the user is a manager who manages the repair of infrastructure facilities, but the user may also be a person who makes management decisions by referring to the repair costs of infrastructure facilities. The user terminal device 200 includes, for example, an operation unit 202, a calculation unit 204, and a display unit 206. The user terminal device 200 activates a UA (User Agent) such as a browser or an application program using the calculation unit 204. The UA is, for example, an application that transmits operation information for causing the repair plan simulation device 100 to perform various calculations and receives data from the repair plan simulation device 100 for displaying simulation results. The user terminal device 200 generates operation information and various requests based on user operations accepted by the operation unit 202, and performs displays, etc. on the display unit 206 based on data transmitted from the repair plan simulation device 100 in response to the various requests.

[0017] The repair plan simulation device 100 is an information processing device that performs processing to provide a service that creates a repair plan for infrastructure equipment and transmits simulation results of costs and soundness. The repair plan simulation device 100 includes, for example, an acquisition unit 102, a deterioration prediction unit 104, a repair plan creation unit 106, a simulation unit 108, and an output unit 110. Functional units such as the acquisition unit 102, the deterioration prediction unit 104, the repair plan creation unit 106, the simulation unit 108, and the output unit 110 are realized by a processor such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) executing a program stored in a program memory. Furthermore, some or all of these functional units may be realized by hardware such as an LSI (Large Scale Integration), an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), or an FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array), or may be realized by a combination of software and hardware.

[0018] The acquisition unit 102 acquires the status data of the infrastructure facilities, the characteristic data of the infrastructure facilities, and the budget information indicating the budget for each predetermined period. The status data of the infrastructure facilities, the characteristic data of the infrastructure facilities, and the budget information indicating the budget for each predetermined period are stored in the storage device 300. The deterioration prediction unit 104 predicts the degree of deterioration of the infrastructure equipment for each management section based on the status data acquired by the acquisition unit 102. A management section is, for example, a range of infrastructure equipment whose status is indicated by the status data of the infrastructure equipment. The repair plan creation unit 106 evaluates infrastructure facilities based on the degree of deterioration predicted by the deterioration prediction unit 104 and the characteristic data acquired by the acquisition unit 102, groups multiple infrastructure facilities based on the evaluation results, selects a repair method for the grouped multiple infrastructure facilities, calculates the cost of repairing the grouped multiple infrastructure facilities using the selected repair method, and determines the repair timing for the grouped multiple infrastructure facilities based on the calculated cost and the budget information acquired by the acquisition unit 102, thereby creating repair plans for each specified period and each managed section. The simulation unit 108 predicts the transition of the life cycle cost of the infrastructure facility and the soundness of the infrastructure facility based on the repair plan for each predetermined period created by the repair plan creation unit 106. The output unit 110 transmits data for displaying the life cycle cost of the infrastructure facility and the health of the infrastructure facility predicted by the simulation unit 108 to the user terminal device 200. The output unit 110 may store the data indicating the life cycle cost of the infrastructure facility and the health of the infrastructure facility in the storage device 300.

[0019] The storage device 300 is realized by, for example, a hard disk drive (HDD), flash memory, electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), read-only memory (ROM), or random access memory (RAM), or a hybrid storage device using a combination of these. The storage device 300 may also be realized by an external storage device accessible via various networks. An example of an external storage device is a network-attached storage (NAS) device. The storage device 300 manages information required for processing by each unit in the repair plan simulation device 100. The storage device 300 stores, for example, road condition data 302, road identification data 304, and map data 306.

[0020] <Configuration of repair plan simulation device 100> FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing a specific example of the repair plan simulation device 100 according to the embodiment. The acquisition unit 102 acquires the condition inspection results, deterioration factor information, importance information, budget information, and long-term repair plan information, and outputs them to the simulation unit 108. The deterioration prediction unit 104 performs calculations using, for example, a prediction model for predicting road deterioration. The prediction model is, for example, a machine learning model that outputs a prediction result of deterioration in response to input of condition inspection results and deterioration factor information. The deterioration prediction unit 104 may, for example, calculate the average deterioration level of roads in a specified section, calculate the deterioration level using regression analysis, or calculate the deterioration level using a Markov deterioration hazard model, but any known prediction method will suffice. The Markov deterioration hazard model evaluates the deterioration state of infrastructure equipment using multiple health levels and expresses the temporal transition process between health levels due to deterioration of the infrastructure equipment using Markov transition probability. The Markov deterioration hazard model calculates the expected lifespan at a certain health level using the transition probability.

[0021] The repair plan creation unit 106 creates a road repair plan using the prediction results calculated by the deterioration prediction unit 104, an evaluation formula for evaluating the priority of repairs, conditions for the repair target, conditions for carrying out repair work simultaneously, conditions for determining the construction method as a repair method, etc.

[0022] The simulation unit 108 uses the prediction results calculated by the deterioration prediction unit 104 and the road repair plan and budget information created by the repair plan creation unit 106 to output a long-term road repair plan, soundness taking the repair plan into consideration, KPI, and LCC. The long-term road repair plan, soundness taking the repair plan into consideration, KPI, and LCC are output by the output unit 110 to the user terminal device 200 or the storage device 300. The KPI is an index that quantitatively evaluates the degree of achievement of road repairs.

[0023] 3 shows an example of an output result in the embodiment, where (a) shows an example of an accumulated annual cost value, (b) shows an example of a single-year cost value, (c) shows a transition of soundness, and (d) shows an example of a long-term repair plan. The output unit 110 can display the information shown in FIG. 3 by transmitting the simulation results to the user terminal device 200.

[0024] The annual cost increases each year as shown in Figure 3(a), but the increase in the annual cost can be changed depending on the administrator's operation. The annual cost shown in Figure 3(b) can be kept roughly constant from year to year or the variation between years can be adjusted depending on the administrator's operation. The road condition indicator, such as the MCI value or crack rate, can be kept constant from year to year or reduced to a fixed value as shown in Figure 3(c), depending on the administrator's operation. The MCI (Maintenance Control Index) value is called the pavement maintenance index and quantitatively evaluates the road pavement's performance based on road surface characteristics such as "crack rate," "amount of rutting," and "flatness." The long-term repair plan, as shown in Figure 3(d), contains information that numerically indicates, for example, the year, repair target, construction method, cost, and road condition.

[0025] The output unit 110 outputs, for example, data to be displayed by a dashboard (tool) that displays a plurality of pieces of information together to the user terminal device 200. The output unit 110 generates data to display, for example, an LLC integrated value indicating the relationship between the fiscal year and the cost of infrastructure equipment, an LLC single-year value indicating the cost for each fiscal year, soundness, and a long-term repair plan.

[0026] FIG. 4 is a diagram for explaining optimization of a repair plan in the embodiment. The simulation unit 108 calculates a repair plan (1) by performing a simulation based on the road condition data 302, road identification data 304, budget information, etc. acquired by the acquisition unit 102. Because the repair plan (1) is a plan in which road deterioration progresses, the infrastructure manager changes, for example, the MCI value threshold (parameter) to suppress the deterioration and improve the quality of the infrastructure. The changed parameters are transmitted from the user terminal device 200. The acquisition unit 102 acquires the parameters, and the simulation unit 108 calculates a repair plan (2) by performing a re-simulation based on the parameters. Because the repair plan (2) is a plan in which the annual budget fluctuates greatly, the infrastructure manager changes, for example, the budget threshold (parameter) to level the budget. The changed parameters are transmitted from the user terminal device 200. The acquisition unit 102 acquires the parameters, and the simulation unit 108 calculates a repair plan (3) by performing a re-simulation based on the parameters. Repair plan (3) is a plan that balances the quality and cost of the infrastructure facilities, and is therefore a repair plan envisioned by the infrastructure facility manager.

[0027] [Overall processing of repair planning simulation system 1] FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing an example of processing in the repair plan simulation system 1 according to the embodiment. First, the acquisition unit 102 acquires data necessary for simulation, such as road condition data 302, road identification data 304, map data 306, and budget information, from the user terminal device 200 and the storage device 300 (step S100). FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of road condition data in the embodiment, FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of road characteristic data in the embodiment, and FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of budget data. Note that Figure 6 shows an example of values for MCI value, crack value, flatness, and rutting.

[0028] Next, the deterioration prediction unit 104 predicts the deterioration of the infrastructure using the data acquired by the acquisition unit 102 (step S102). At this time, the deterioration prediction unit 104 calculates the average value of the deterioration rate for each group including multiple infrastructure facilities using a prediction model. The multiple infrastructure facilities are, for example, roads for each predetermined section, and the average value of the deterioration rate of the road for each predetermined section is stored in the storage device 300 as a default value. The deterioration prediction unit 104 may calculate the MCI value of the infrastructure facility as the degree of deterioration.

[0029] The repair plan creation unit 106 acquires the number of years for which the plan has been formulated, and repeats the processes from step S104 to step S118 the number of times equal to the number of years for which the plan has been formulated. The repair plan creation unit 106 prioritizes multiple infrastructure facilities using an evaluation formula (step S104). The evaluation formula is defined by combining road condition data 302, such as MCI values and crack rates, with road identification data 304. The evaluation formula is, for example, "10-MCI value." Note that an MCI value of 5 or more is a desirable management level, an MCI value of 4 or less indicates that repair is necessary, and an MCI value of 3 or less indicates that repair is urgently necessary. In this way, the repair plan creation unit 106 prioritizes infrastructure facilities based on the MCI values.

[0030] The repair plan creation unit 106 determines the infrastructure facilities to be repaired based on the calculated value of the evaluation formula (Step S106). The repair plan creation unit 106 determines, in order of priority, the infrastructure facilities whose MCI values are equal to or less than the threshold value as the infrastructure facilities to be repaired. Specifically, the repair plan creation unit 106 determines, for example, infrastructure equipment with a calculated value of the evaluation formula > 10-4.0 as a repair target. Furthermore, the repair plan creation unit 106 may determine that infrastructure equipment with a higher calculated value of the evaluation formula is more deteriorated, and therefore, give it a higher priority and determine it as a repair target. If there is no infrastructure equipment with a calculated value of the evaluation formula > 10-4.0, the repair plan creation unit 106 does not extract a repair target. The repair plan creation unit 106 may determine the repair target based on the road characteristic data. For example, if the road identification data 304 indicates that the infrastructure facility is a toll road and the toll road is to be repaired first, the result of the evaluation formula can be increased by subtracting 0.5 from the MCI value.

[0031] The repair plan creation unit 106 determines multiple infrastructure facilities for which construction work will be performed simultaneously and groups the determined multiple infrastructure facilities (step S108). The repair plan creation unit 106 groups consecutive sections within five sections of the road of interest where the calculated value of the evaluation formula is greater than 10-5.0. In this way, the repair plan creation unit 106 groups multiple infrastructure facilities with consecutive sections among the infrastructure facilities whose MCI values are equal to or less than the threshold.

[0032] The repair plan creation unit 106 selects a construction method and materials (repair method) based on the MCI values of the grouped infrastructure facilities (step S110). The MCI value of the grouped infrastructure facilities may be the average of the MCI values of each infrastructure facility. The repair plan creation unit 106 selects one layer of cutting overlay (OL) if the MCI value is 4.0 or higher, selects two layers of cutting overlay if the MCI value is lower than 4.0, and selects RC if the MCI value is lower than 3.0.

[0033] The repair plan creation unit 106 estimates the cost of the repair work based on the selected construction method and materials, and the length and width of the grouped infrastructure facilities (step S112).

[0034] The repair plan creation unit 106 determines whether the total annual cost, including estimated costs for the grouped infrastructure facilities, is below the fiscal year budget (step S114). If the total annual cost is below the fiscal year budget, the repair plan creation unit 106 determines the repair timing for the grouped infrastructure facilities (step S114: YES, step S116), and if the total annual cost is not below the fiscal year budget, the repair plan creation unit 106 returns to the determination of repair targets (step S106) (step S114: NO). The repair timing is set to a period within the current fiscal year for which personnel can be secured.

[0035] In response to the determination of the repair timing, the deterioration prediction unit 104 predicts the deterioration state of the grouped infrastructure facilities for the next fiscal year (step S118). The repair plan creation unit 106 performs the processes from step S104 to step S118 for the next fiscal year based on the deterioration state predicted by the deterioration prediction unit 104, and determines the repair targets, repair methods, and repair timing for the next fiscal year.

[0036] The repair plan simulation device 100 creates a repair plan by repeating the process for the number of years for which the plan is formulated. Fig. 9 is a diagram showing an example of a repair plan according to the embodiment. When the repair plan simulation device 100 creates a repair plan (infrastructure equipment repair targets, repair methods, and repair timing) for the number of years for which the plan is formulated, the simulation unit 108 simulates the health, KPI, and LCC of each infrastructure equipment based on the repair plan. The output unit 110 outputs a list of repair timing, repair methods, and costs for each managed section as a long-term repair plan, and outputs the predicted value of health, cost, and KPI trends for each managed section as simulation results (step S120). Figure 10 is a diagram showing an example of the health simulation results in the embodiment.

[0037] [Re-simulation after changes as required] FIG. 11 is a flowchart showing an example of a re-simulation process after a change in the repair time according to the embodiment. The repair plan simulation device 100 includes an acquisition unit 102 as a reception unit that receives user operations. The deterioration prediction unit 104 calculates the deterioration levels of multiple pieces of infrastructure equipment based on the road condition data 302, the road identification data 304, and the repair method and repair timing of the infrastructure equipment in the repair plan created by the repair plan creation unit 106. The simulation unit 108 reselects infrastructure equipment to be repaired based on at least one of the requests for changing the MCI value threshold, the request for changing the repair method or repair timing, and the request for changing the budget upper limit for each fiscal year received by the reception unit, and re-predicts the changes in the life cycle cost of the infrastructure equipment and the health of the infrastructure equipment when the reselected infrastructure equipment is repaired. Specifically, the repair plan simulation device 100 performs the following processes.

[0038] For example, when receiving a request to change the repair schedule of an infrastructure facility from the user terminal device 200, the acquisition unit 102 acquires the road condition data 302, the road identification data 304, and the long-term repair plan (step S200). The deterioration prediction unit 104 predicts the deterioration of the infrastructure facility when repairs are performed at the changed repair schedule of the infrastructure facility (step S202).

[0039] The repair plan creation unit 106 acquires the number of years for which the plan has been formulated, and repeats the processes from step S204 to step S208 the number of times equal to the number of years for which the plan has been formulated. The repair plan creation unit 106 extracts a repair plan including the repair timing of the changed infrastructure facility (step S204). The repair plan creation unit 106 selects a repair method for the changed infrastructure facility from the extracted repair plan (step S206). The repair plan creation unit 106 estimates the cost of the repair work based on the selected repair method, the length and width of the infrastructure facility (step S208).

[0040] The repair plan creation unit 106 modifies the repair plan for the fiscal year after the changed repair time for the infrastructure facility. When the repair plan simulation system 1 creates a repair plan (repair targets, repair methods, and repair timing for infrastructure equipment) for the number of years for which the plan is formulated, the simulation unit 108 simulates the soundness, KPI, and LCC based on the repair plan, and the output unit 110 outputs the simulation results (step S210).

[0041] In addition, even if the acquisition unit 102 receives a request to change the MCI value threshold, a request to change the repair method, or a request to change the budget upper limit for each fiscal year, the repair plan simulation device 100 changes the repair plan based on the changes corresponding to the request.

[0042] [Optimization of repair plans] FIG. 12 is a diagram for explaining the optimization of repair plans in an embodiment, where (a) is an example of a repair plan, (b) is an example of a repair plan for early repairs, and (c) is an example of a repair plan for when construction methods and materials are changed. The repair plan shown in the upper part of FIG. 12(a) carries out repairs on the condition that the road's health condition falls below a threshold. For example, if the MCI value falls below the threshold, repairs will be carried out within five years. In this case, the life cycle cost increases linearly with the number of years that have passed, as shown in the lower part of FIG. 12(a).

[0043] The repair plan simulation device 100 accepts a request to modify the repair plan to change the budget allocation and perform repairs earlier in order to reduce life cycle costs. Specifically, the user terminal device 200 transmits a request to repair the road before the road health falls below a threshold based on an operation by the infrastructure facility manager, and the acquisition unit 102 accepts the request. The repair plan creation unit 106 changes the repair timing of the infrastructure facility in response to the request, thereby performing the infrastructure facility repair earlier as shown in the upper part of Figure 12(b), thereby reducing the increase in life cycle costs as shown in the lower part of Figure 12(b).

[0044] The repair plan simulation device 100 accepts a request to modify the repair plan so as to change the repair method and extend the lifespan of the infrastructure equipment in order to reduce life cycle costs. The repair plan creation unit 106 changes the repair method for the infrastructure equipment in response to the request, recalculates the deterioration that would occur if the repair were performed using the changed repair method, and creates a repair plan. This makes it possible to delay the time it takes for the health of the infrastructure equipment to fall below the threshold, as shown in the upper part of Figure 12(c). It also makes it possible to reduce increases in life cycle costs, as shown in the lower part of Figure 12(c).

[0045] FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating an example of a simulation result according to the embodiment. In order to consider the costs of a repair plan, the output unit 110 can create data that displays the integrated value of the life cycle cost as shown in Fig. 13(a). The output unit 110 can also create data that displays the single-year value of the life cycle cost as shown in Fig. 13(b). This allows the repair plan simulation device 100 to allow the manager of the infrastructure facility to consider a repair plan from a cost perspective.

[0046] In order to consider the soundness of the repair plan, the output unit 110 can create data that displays the trend of the minimum MCI value (the section with the lowest quality) of the infrastructure facility, as shown in FIG. 13(c). The output unit 110 can also create data that displays a repair method according to the MCI value threshold. Specifically, the repair plan simulation device 100 can display that repairs should be performed using the RC construction method when the minimum MCI value remains below 3, and that repairs should be performed using cutting OL when the minimum MCI value remains 3 or greater. This allows the repair plan simulation device 100 to allow the manager of the infrastructure facility to consider repair plans from a quality perspective.

[0047] To examine the soundness of the repair plan, the output unit 110 can create data that displays the transition of the average MCI value of the infrastructure facility, as shown in Figure 13(d). The output unit 110 can also create data that displays how the average MCI value changes with respect to the MCI value threshold. This allows the repair plan simulation device 100 to allow the manager of the infrastructure facility to examine the repair plan from a quality perspective.

[0048] The repair plan simulation system 1 may carry out repairs within a fixed annual budget and repair infrastructure facilities as a form of ex-post maintenance. The repair plan simulation device 100 creates a repair plan by limiting the annual budget to within the fixed budget, as shown in FIG. 13(b), and selecting annual repair targets, etc. The integrated value of the life cycle cost increases linearly, as shown in FIG. 13(a). Furthermore, the minimum MCI value in the repair plan is as shown in FIG. 13(c), and the average MCI value is as shown in FIG. 13(d). This allows the repair plan simulation device 100 to allow the manager of the infrastructure facilities to consider a repair plan when the annual budget is fixed.

[0049] FIG. 14 is a diagram showing another example of the simulation result according to the embodiment. The repair plan simulation system 1 may create a repair plan so that deteriorated areas are repaired in the first year of the planning period, and repairs are carried out in subsequent years before the soundness exceeds a threshold value. The repair plan simulation device 100 allocates a large budget to repair many pieces of infrastructure equipment in the first year, as shown in Figure 14(b), and creates repair plans for the infrastructure equipment for subsequent years based on the degree of deterioration of the infrastructure equipment repaired in the first year. When the repair plan simulation device 100 creates a repair plan to perform repairs so that the minimum MCI value does not fall below a threshold, as shown in Figure 14(c), the average MCI value for all sections becomes as shown in Figure 14(d), and the integrated value of the life cycle cost becomes as shown in Figure 14(a). The infrastructure equipment manager can compare the budget and soundness simulation results between a repair plan that performs repairs when the MCI value falls below the threshold, as shown in Figure 13, and a repair plan that performs repairs before the MCI value falls below the threshold, as shown in Figure 14.

[0050] FIG. 15 is a diagram showing another example of the simulation result according to the embodiment. The repair plan simulation system 1 can create a repair plan by accepting a request to level the annual budget based on the operation of the infrastructure facility manager based on the simulation results shown in Figure 13. The repair plan simulation device 100 creates a repair plan so that the annual budget does not exceed a threshold and the minimum MCI value is maintained above the threshold, as shown in Figure 15(b), resulting in a repair method that mainly uses the cutting OL method. In this case, the average MCI value for all sections will be as shown in Figure 15(d), and the integrated value of the life cycle cost will be as shown in Figure 15(a). The infrastructure facility manager can compare the simulation results shown in Figures 13 and 14 with the simulation results shown in Figure 15.

[0051] (Effects of the embodiment) As described above, according to the embodiment of the repair plan simulation system 1, the degree of deterioration of infrastructure facilities for each managed section is predicted based on the road condition data 302, the infrastructure facilities are evaluated based on the predicted degree of deterioration and the road identification data 304, multiple infrastructure facilities are grouped based on the evaluation results, a repair method for the multiple grouped infrastructure facilities is selected, the cost of repairing the multiple grouped infrastructure facilities using the selected repair method is calculated, and the repair timing for the multiple grouped infrastructure facilities is determined based on the calculated cost and budget information, thereby creating repair plans for each specified period and for each managed section, and predicting the changes in the life cycle cost of the infrastructure facilities and the health of the infrastructure facilities based on the created repair plans for each specified period.

[0052] This repair plan simulation system 1 can simulate the long-term soundness and life cycle costs of infrastructure facilities based on deterioration predictions and repair methods, and present the simulation results to the infrastructure facility manager. Furthermore, the repair plan simulation system 1 can help make investment decisions from a long-term perspective by showing the cost-effectiveness of repair work over the long term. Furthermore, the repair plan simulation system 1 can reduce life cycle costs and risks through preventive maintenance of infrastructure facilities.

[0053] Furthermore, according to the repair plan simulation system 1 of the embodiment, the MCI value of the infrastructure equipment is calculated as the degree of deterioration, the infrastructure equipment is prioritized based on the MCI value, infrastructure equipment with an MCI value below a threshold is determined in order of priority as a target for repair, and multiple infrastructure equipment with an MCI value below the threshold that are in a continuous section can be grouped. This repair plan simulation system 1 can select repair targets based on the MCI value and perform a soundness simulation.

[0054] Furthermore, according to the embodiment, the repair plan simulation system 1 can reselect infrastructure equipment to be repaired based on at least one of a request to change the MCI value threshold, a request to change the repair method or repair timing, and a request to change the budget upper limit for each fiscal year, all of which are received by the acquisition unit 102 (reception unit), and can re-predict the changes in the life cycle cost of the infrastructure equipment and the health of the infrastructure equipment when the reselected infrastructure equipment is repaired. As a result, the repair plan simulation system 1 can create a repair plan and simulation results according to the requests of the infrastructure equipment manager, thereby formulating a repair plan that the infrastructure equipment manager desires.

[0055] Although each embodiment and each variant have been described, these are merely examples and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. For example, one aspect of the present invention may be realized by combining any of the embodiments or variants, or a part of each embodiment or a part of each variant, with one or more other embodiments or one or more other variants.

[0056] In addition, the programs for executing the various processes of the repair plan simulation device 100 in this embodiment may be recorded on a computer-readable recording medium, and the programs recorded on the recording medium may be read into a computer system and executed, thereby performing the various processes described above related to the repair plan simulation device 100.

[0057] Note that the term "computer system" here may include hardware such as the OS and peripheral devices. Furthermore, if a WWW system is used, the term "computer system" also includes the homepage provision environment (or display environment). Furthermore, "computer-readable recording media" refers to storage devices such as flexible disks, magneto-optical disks, ROMs, and writable non-volatile memory such as flash memory, portable media such as CD-ROMs, and hard disks built into computer systems.

[0058] Furthermore, the term "computer-readable recording medium" also includes a storage medium that stores a program for a certain period of time, such as a volatile memory (e.g., DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory)) within a computer system that serves as a server or client when the program is transmitted via a network such as the Internet or a communication line such as a telephone line. The program may also be transmitted from a computer system that stores the program in a storage device or the like to another computer system via a transmission medium or by transmission waves in the transmission medium.

[0059] Here, the "transmission medium" for transmitting the program refers to a medium that has the function of transmitting information, such as a network (communication network) such as the Internet or a communication line (communication line) such as a telephone line. The program may also be one that realizes part of the above-mentioned functions. Furthermore, it may be a so-called differential file (differential program) that can realize the above-mentioned functions in combination with a program already recorded in a computer system.

[0060] Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described in detail above with reference to the drawings, the specific configuration is not limited to this embodiment, and the present invention also includes designs within the scope of the gist of the present invention. [Explanation of symbols]

[0061] 1. Repair planning simulation system 100 Repair planning simulation device 102 Acquisition Department 104 Deterioration Prediction Unit 106 Repair Planning Department 108 Simulation Department 110 Output section 200 User terminal device 202 Operation section 204 Arithmetic section 206 Display section 300 storage device 302 Road Condition Data 304 Road Specific Data 306 Map Data

Claims

1. an acquisition unit that acquires infrastructure facility status data, infrastructure facility characteristic data, and budget information indicating a budget for each predetermined period; a deterioration prediction unit that predicts a deterioration level of infrastructure equipment for each management section based on the status data acquired by the acquisition unit; a repair plan creation unit that evaluates the infrastructure facilities based on the deterioration degree predicted by the deterioration prediction unit and the characteristic data acquired by the acquisition unit, groups the plurality of infrastructure facilities based on the evaluation results, selects a repair method for the plurality of grouped infrastructure facilities, calculates the cost of repairing the plurality of grouped infrastructure facilities using the selected repair method, and determines the repair timing for the plurality of grouped infrastructure facilities based on the calculated cost and budget information acquired by the acquisition unit, thereby creating a repair plan for each predetermined period and each managed section; a simulation unit that predicts the transition of the life cycle cost of the infrastructure equipment and the soundness of the infrastructure equipment based on the repair plan for each predetermined period created by the repair plan creation unit; A repair planning simulation system equipped with the above.

2. the deterioration prediction unit calculates an MCI (Maintenance Control Index) value of the infrastructure equipment as the deterioration degree, The repair plan simulation system of claim 1, wherein the repair plan creation unit prioritizes infrastructure equipment based on the MCI value, determines infrastructure equipment whose MCI value is below a threshold in order of priority as being subject to repair, and groups multiple infrastructure equipment whose MCI values are below the threshold and have consecutive sections.

3. a reception unit for receiving an operation from a user, the deterioration prediction unit calculates the degree of deterioration of a plurality of infrastructure facilities based on the infrastructure facility state data, the infrastructure facility characteristic data, and the infrastructure facility repair method and repair timing in the repair plan created by the repair plan creation unit; the simulation unit reselects infrastructure equipment to be repaired based on at least one of a request to change the MCI value threshold, a request to change the repair method or repair timing, and a request to change the budget upper limit for each fiscal year, all of which have been received by the reception unit, and re-predicts the changes in the life cycle cost and health of the infrastructure equipment when the reselected infrastructure equipment is repaired; The repair plan simulation system according to claim 2 .

4. An information processing device acquires infrastructure facility status data, infrastructure facility characteristic data, and budget information indicating a budget for each predetermined period; a step in which the information processing device predicts a deterioration level of infrastructure equipment for each management section based on the status data; the information processing device evaluates the infrastructure facilities based on the deterioration level and the characteristic data, and groups a plurality of infrastructure facilities based on the evaluation result; a step in which the information processing device selects a repair method for the plurality of grouped infrastructure facilities; a step of calculating a cost when the information processing device repairs the plurality of grouped infrastructure facilities using the selected repair method; The information processing device determines repair times for the grouped infrastructure facilities based on the calculated costs and budget information, thereby creating a repair plan for each predetermined period and each managed section; a step in which the information processing device predicts a transition in the life cycle cost of the infrastructure facility and the health of the infrastructure facility based on a repair plan for each predetermined period; A repair plan simulation method including:

5. The computer of the information processing device acquiring infrastructure facility status data, infrastructure facility characteristic data, and budget information indicating a budget for each predetermined period; predicting the degree of deterioration of infrastructure equipment for each management section based on the condition data; evaluating the infrastructure facilities based on the deterioration level and the characteristic data, and grouping a plurality of infrastructure facilities based on the evaluation results; selecting a repair method for the grouped plurality of infrastructure facilities; A step of calculating the cost of repairing the plurality of grouped infrastructure facilities using the selected repair method; A step of creating a repair plan for each predetermined period and each managed section by determining repair times for the grouped infrastructure facilities based on the calculated costs and budget information; A step of predicting the transition of the life cycle cost of the infrastructure facility and the health of the infrastructure facility based on a repair plan for each predetermined period; A repair plan simulation program that executes the following:

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