Water demand prediction device and program

Abstract

To provide a water demand prediction device and a program that can improve the accuracy of predicting a water demand quantity.SOLUTION: According to an embodiment, a water demand prediction device includes a communication unit and a processor. The communication unit acquires information indicating the numbers of passengers boarding and alighting at each station. The processor estimates a population increase or decrease in a water distribution area based on the information indicating the numbers of passengers boarding and alighting at each station received by the communication unit, predicts a water demand quantity in the water distribution area based on the population increase or decrease in the water distribution area, and outputs the predicted water demand quantity for the water distribution area to a device that performs control for supplying water to the water distribution area.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] An embodiment of the present invention relates to a water demand prediction device and a program. [Background technology]

[0002] Water treatment facilities, including water purification plants, predict water demand in order to formulate water operation plans for ensuring a stable supply of water to each distribution area. For example, accurately predicting water demand is important for efficiently operating waterworks facilities that supply purified water and for supplying an appropriate amount of purified water to consumers without excess or shortage. Because the amount of water consumed in each distribution area varies depending on conditions such as weather and the calendar day (day of the week), methods have been proposed for predicting water demand in a distribution area based on conditions such as weather and the calendar day and past actual water demand values. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Publication No. 2020-112847 [Patent Document 2] Patent Publication No. 2021-142477 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] However, it can be difficult to predict water demand based solely on weather, day of the week, etc. For example, if a new virus causes a change in behavior, the accuracy of water demand predictions based on previous conditions may be significantly reduced. The problem to be solved by the invention is to provide a demand prediction device and a program that can improve the accuracy of prediction of water demand. [Means for solving the problem]

[0005] According to an embodiment, the water demand prediction device includes a communication unit and a processor. The communication unit acquires information indicating the number of passengers boarding and alighting at each station. The processor estimates a population increase or decrease in a water distribution area based on the information indicating the number of passengers boarding and alighting at each station received by the communication unit, predicts water demand in the water distribution area based on the population increase or decrease in the water distribution area, and outputs the predicted water demand for the water distribution area to a device that controls water supply to the water distribution area. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0006] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of the overall configuration of a water management system including a water demand prediction device according to an embodiment. [Figure 2] FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing an example of the configuration of a control system in the water demand prediction device according to the embodiment. [Figure 3] FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining an example of a process for counting the number of passengers getting on and off using a camera by a station information system in a water operation system including a water demand prediction device according to an embodiment. [Figure 4] FIG. 4 is a diagram for explaining an example of a process for counting the number of passengers getting on and off using a ticket gate by a station information system in a water operation system including a water demand prediction device according to an embodiment. [Figure 5] FIG. 5 is a diagram schematically illustrating an example of the relationship between a water distribution area and each station in a water operation system including a water demand prediction device according to an embodiment. [Figure 6] FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example of a population increase / decrease determination table that the water demand prediction device according to the embodiment uses to determine the increase / decrease in population for each water distribution area from the number of passengers getting on and off at each station. [Figure 7] FIG. 7 is a flowchart illustrating an example of the operation of the water demand prediction process according to the increase or decrease in population for each water distribution area performed by the water demand prediction device according to the embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0007] Hereinafter, embodiments will be described with reference to the drawings. FIG. 1 shows an example of the overall configuration of a water management system 1 according to an embodiment. The water operation system 1 shown in FIG. 1 includes a water demand prediction device 11, a water distribution system 12, a station information system 13 (13A, 13B, . . . ), and an information providing device 14 (14A, 14B, . . . ). The water demand prediction device 11 predicts the amount of water demand (water demand volume) for each water distribution region, and supplies the predicted value of the water demand volume to the water distribution control device 21 of the water distribution system 12.

[0008] The water demand prediction device 11 obtains information used to predict water demand from the station information system 13 and the information providing device 14. The water demand prediction device 11 collects information indicating actual water demand values ​​in each water distribution area from the water distribution control device 21 and stores information indicating past actual water demand values ​​in each water distribution area. The water demand prediction device 11 predicts water demand for each water distribution area based on the number of passengers boarding and alighting at the station and past actual water demand values ​​obtained from the station information system 13. The water demand prediction device 11 also has a function to identify water distribution conditions from information obtained from the information providing device 14, etc.

[0009] The water distribution system 12 includes a water distribution control device 21 and multiple water distribution facilities 22 (22a, 22b, ...). The water distribution control device 21 performs overall management of water supply to multiple water distribution areas. For example, the water distribution control device 21 formulates a water operation plan for distributing water to each water distribution area based on a predicted value of water demand for each water distribution area, and supplies control instructions according to the water operation plan to each water distribution facility 22. The water distribution control device 21 also collects information indicating actual values ​​of water demand in each water distribution area from each water distribution facility 22, and supplies the collected actual values ​​to the water demand prediction device 11.

[0010] Each water distribution facility 22 includes a plant control device, a water purification plant, pumps, a distribution reservoir, and a distribution pipe network. Each water distribution facility 22 distributes water to each distribution area based on control instructions from the water distribution control device 21 in accordance with the water operation plan. Each water distribution facility 22 also has sensors related to the water treatment process. For example, each water distribution facility 22 has sensors such as a water level gauge that measures the water level in the distribution reservoir and a flow meter that measures the flow rate of water delivered to the distribution area. Each water distribution facility 22 supplies values ​​measured by each sensor to the water distribution control device 21 as information indicating the actual water demand in each distribution area.

[0011] The station information systems 13 (13A, 13B, ...) are systems that provide information about users at each station. The station information systems 13 (13A, 13B, ...) may be systems that provide information indicating the number of passengers boarding and alighting at each station (or information for estimating the number of passengers boarding and alighting) to the water demand prediction device 11. For example, the station information systems 13 (13A, 13B, ...) are provided at each station. In the example shown in FIG. 1, the station information system 13A is provided at station a, and the station information system 13B is provided at station b.

[0012] The station information system 13 (13A, 13B, ...) has an information processing device 30 and a camera 31 or a ticket gate 32. In each station information system 13, the information processing device 30 is connected to either the camera 31 or the ticket gate 32, and is also communicatively connected to the water demand prediction device 11. The information processing device 30 may be connected to both the camera 31 and the ticket gate 32, and may count the number of passengers getting on and off, as described below, by selectively using information from either the camera 31 or the ticket gate 32. For example, the information processing device 30 may be connected to both the camera 31 and the ticket gate 32, and may normally count the number of passengers getting on and off based on images captured by the camera 31, and may store information indicating the number of passengers getting on and off at the ticket gate 32 as backup data.

[0013] Camera 31 is installed to capture images of people passing through station entrances and provides the images (video) captured at a predetermined frame rate to information processing device 30. Information processing device 30 acquires the images captured by camera 31 and detects people passing through station entrances and exits from the images captured by camera 31. Information processing device 30 counts the number of people entering the station detected from the images captured by camera 31 as the number of passengers boarding, and counts the number of people exiting the station detected from the images captured by camera 31 as the number of passengers disembarking.

[0014] The ticket gate 32 is installed at the ticket gate of the station and controls the passage of people through the ticket gate. The ticket gate 32 supplies the number of people who have passed through the ticket gate as the number of boarding and alighting passengers to the information processing device 30. For example, the ticket gate 32 counts the number of people who have entered the station through the ticket gate as the number of boarding passengers, and the number of people who have exited the station through the ticket gate as the number of alighting passengers, and supplies this count to the information processing device 30.

[0015] The information processing device 30 in the station information system 13 may be configured to acquire either the number of passengers boarding and alighting detected from images captured by the camera 31 or the number of passengers counted by the ticket gates 32. Some or all of the functions of the information processing device 30 may be provided by the water demand prediction device 11. For example, the water demand prediction device 11 may acquire images captured by the camera 31 installed at each station and detect the number of passengers boarding and alighting at each station. The water demand prediction device 11 may also acquire the number of passengers boarding and alighting directly from the ticket gates 32 installed at each station.

[0016] The information providing devices 14 (14A, 14B, ...) are devices that provide information to the water demand prediction device 11. For example, one of the information providing devices 14 is a device that provides current and past meteorological information (information indicating weather, temperature, humidity, etc.) in each water distribution area to the water demand prediction device 11. The meteorological information is an example of a water distribution condition that may affect the water demand in the water distribution area.

[0017] One of the information providing devices 14 is a device that provides calendar information data (calendar data) that indicates the type of day, day of the week, number of days since the beginning of the year, etc. Here, the type of day refers to types such as weekdays, holidays, and special days, and special days refer to types of special days such as the New Year holidays, Golden Week, Obon, and public holidays. The calendar information is an example of a water distribution condition that may affect the water demand in a water distribution area.

[0018] Furthermore, one of the information providing devices 14 may be a device that provides information on water consumption behavior specific to each water distribution area. For example, one of the information providing devices 14 may be a device that provides information on event information that may affect water consumption in the water distribution area. Information on water consumption behavior, such as event information, is an example of a water distribution condition that may affect the water demand in the water distribution area.

[0019] Next, the configuration of the control system in the water demand prediction device 11 of the water operation system according to the embodiment will be described. FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing an example of the configuration of a control system in the water demand prediction device 11 of the water operation system according to the embodiment. In the exemplary configuration shown in FIG. 2, the water demand prediction device 11 includes a processor 51, a ROM 52, a RAM 53, a communication unit 54, and a storage unit 55.

[0020] The processor 51 executes arithmetic processing. The processor 51 is, for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit). The processor 51 functions as a processing unit that executes various processes by using the RAM 53 to execute programs stored in the ROM 52 or the storage unit 55.

[0021] The ROM 52 is a read-only non-volatile memory. The ROM 52 stores program data, control data, etc. The RAM 53 is a volatile memory that functions as a working memory. The RAM 53 temporarily stores data.

[0022] The communication unit 54 is a communication interface for communicating with each device. The communication unit 54 includes interfaces for communicating with the water distribution system 12 (water distribution control device 21), the station information system 13 (information processing device 30), and the information providing device 14. Note that the interface for communicating with the water distribution control device 21, the interface for communicating with the information processing device 30, and the interface for communicating with the information providing device 14, which are provided in the communication unit 54, may be interfaces of different communication methods.

[0023] The storage unit 55 is a rewritable non-volatile memory. The storage unit 55 is configured by a hard disk drive (HDD), a solid state drive (SSD), etc. The storage unit 55 stores information such as program data, various setting values, and data collected from each device.

[0024] The storage unit 55 also includes a population increase / decrease determination table 61 and a performance database (DB) 62. The population increase / decrease determination table 61 stores information for determining the increase / decrease in population for each water distribution area from the number of passengers getting on and off at each station. For example, the population increase / decrease determination table 61 stores information indicating the proportion of people in each water distribution area who use each station. The population increase / decrease determination table 61 will be explained in detail later.

[0025] The performance database 62 stores data indicating the performance values ​​of the water distribution amount (performance values ​​of the water demand amount) for each water distribution area collected from the water distribution system 12. The performance database 62 stores the performance values ​​of the water demand amount in the water distribution area in association with information indicating the date and time when the performance value was reached.

[0026] Furthermore, the performance database 62 stores past performance values ​​of water demand in a water distribution area in association with information indicating the water distribution conditions under which the performance values ​​were achieved. The water distribution conditions may be any information that may affect the water demand in the water distribution area, such as weather information, calendar date information, and event information. In other words, the performance database 62 may store past performance values ​​of water demand for each water distribution condition (information on weather, calendar date, event, time period, etc.) for each water distribution area.

[0027] Furthermore, the record database 62 may store past record values ​​of water demand in the water distribution area in association with information indicating the population (estimated population) of the water distribution area at the time the record value was reached.

[0028] The water demand prediction device 11 may be configured with one or more computers. For example, some or all of the various functions realized by the water demand prediction device 11 may be executed by different computers. The performance database 62 may be provided in a storage unit of an external device, such as a server, that is capable of communicating with the water demand prediction device 11 that executes the processes described below. The population increase / decrease determination table 61 may also be provided in a storage unit of an external device, such as a server, that is capable of communicating with the water demand prediction device 11 that executes the processes described below.

[0029] Next, a process of identifying the number of passengers getting on and off at a station by the station information system 13 that provides information to the water demand prediction device 11 according to the embodiment will be described. In each station information system 13, an information processing device 30 is communicatively connected to the water demand prediction device 11, and is connected to cameras 31 or ticket gates 32 installed at stations. The information processing device 30 of each station information system 13 supplies the water demand prediction device 11 with the number of passengers boarding and alighting at the station (the number of passengers boarding and alighting) detected from images taken by the cameras 31, or the number of passengers boarding and alighting at the station, calculated by tallying the number of passengers boarding and alighting obtained from the ticket gates 32.

[0030] FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining an example of a process for identifying the number of passengers getting on and off at a station using an image captured by the camera 31 in the station information system 13. In FIG. In the example shown in Fig. 3, camera 31 of station information system 13 is installed so as to capture images of people passing through station entrances and exits. Camera 31 supplies images (video) of the station entrances and exits at a predetermined frame rate to information processing device 30. Information processing device 30 acquires the images captured by camera 31. Note that camera 31 may be configured to capture images for counting the number of passengers getting on and off at the station, and may, for example, capture images of station ticket gates.

[0031] The information processing device 30 detects, in the image captured by the camera 31, people entering the station through the entrance / exit (entrants) and people exiting the station through the entrance / exit (exits). When an information processing device 30 detects a visitor in an image captured by a camera 31, it counts the number of visitors who have entered the station by tracking each visitor in the image captured by the camera 31 at a predetermined frame rate.

[0032] When the information processing device 30 detects a contestant in an image captured by the camera 31, it counts the number of contestants who have exited the station by tracking each contestant in the image captured by the camera 31 at a predetermined frame rate. The information processing device 30 counts the number of passengers entering the station as the number of passengers boarding, and counts the number of passengers leaving the station as the number of passengers disembarking, and supplies information indicating the number of passengers boarding and disembarking (number of passengers getting on and off) to the water demand forecasting device 11.

[0033] If a station has multiple entrances and exits, the information processing device 30 may collect not only the number of passengers getting on and off at each station, but also the number of passengers getting on and off at each station entrance and supply this information to the water demand prediction device 11. If the information processing device 30 supplies the number of passengers getting on and off at each station entrance and exit to the water demand prediction device 11, the water demand prediction device 11 may estimate the increase or decrease in the population of the water distribution area based on the number of passengers getting on and off at each station entrance and exit.

[0034] FIG. 4 is a diagram for explaining an example of a process for identifying the number of passengers getting on and off at a station based on information from the ticket gate 32 in the station information system 13. In FIG. 4, the ticket gate 32 of the station information system 13 is provided at a ticket gate of a station and forms a passage for passing through the ticket gate. The ticket gate 32 detects people passing through the passage provided at the ticket gate. For example, the ticket gate 32 detects the number of people (enterers or exiting persons) passing through the ticket gate in the direction of entry or exit, and supplies the detection results of the entrants who have entered the station premises or the exiting persons who have left the station premises to the information processing device 30.

[0035] When the ticket gate 32 detects a person moving into the station premises at the ticket gate (when the user is permitted to enter the station premises), it notifies the information processing device 30 that the person (enterer) has entered the station premises. Furthermore, when the ticket gate 32 detects a person moving from the station premises to the outside at the ticket gate (when the user is permitted to exit the station premises), it supplies information processing device 30 with information that the person (enterer) has exited the station premises.

[0036] The information processing device 30 acquires information indicating the entry and exit of people from all ticket gates 32 installed at each ticket gate of the station. The information processing device 30 counts the number of people entering the station (number of people getting on) by aggregating the information indicating the entry of people collected from all ticket gates 32 at the station. The information processing device 30 also counts the number of people exiting the station (number of people getting off) by aggregating the information indicating the exit of people collected from all ticket gates 32 at the station. The information processing device 30 supplies the number of people getting on and off and the number of people getting off based on the information collected from each ticket gate 32 at the station to the water demand prediction device 11 as information indicating the number of people getting on and off at the station.

[0037] If a station has multiple ticket gates, the information processing device 30 may collect not only the number of passengers getting on and off at each station but also the number of passengers getting on and off at each ticket gate at the station and supply this information to the water demand prediction device 11. If the information processing device 30 supplies the number of passengers getting on and off at each ticket gate at each station to the water demand prediction device 11, the water demand prediction device 11 may estimate the increase or decrease in the population of the water distribution area based on the number of passengers getting on and off at each ticket gate at each station.

[0038] Next, a method for determining a population increase or decrease in a water distribution area based on the relationship between the water distribution area and each station, for which the water demand is predicted by the water demand prediction device 11 according to the embodiment, will be described. FIG. 5 is a diagram schematically illustrating an example of the relationship between a water distribution area and each station in a water operation system including a water demand prediction device according to an embodiment. For a particular water distribution area, there may be multiple stations within and around the water distribution area. In the example shown in Figure 5, there are multiple stations (Station A, Station B, and Station C) within and around water distribution area A. In such a case, it is expected that a person (resident or worker) in water distribution area A will use either Station A, Station B, or Station C when using the train.

[0039] Because station a is located within water distribution area A, it is expected that most of the users of station a are people traveling from or visiting water distribution area A. Because station c is located away from water distribution area A, it is expected that the proportion of users of station c who are people traveling from or visiting water distribution area A is low. Because station b is adjacent to water distribution area A, it is expected that the proportion of users of station b who are people traveling from or visiting water distribution area A is medium.

[0040] By statistically setting the above-mentioned trends for each water distribution area, it becomes possible to estimate the population (population increase / decrease) in the water distribution area from the number of passengers boarding and alighting at each station. The water demand forecasting device 11 according to this embodiment can calculate (estimate) the increase / decrease in the population of the water distribution area from the number of passengers boarding and alighting at each station, using the utilization rate of each station set for each water distribution area.

[0041] FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of a population increase / decrease determination table 61 that the water demand prediction device 11 according to the embodiment uses to determine the increase / decrease in population for each water distribution area from the number of passengers getting on and off at each station. In the example shown in Figure 6, in water distribution area A, the utilization rate of station a is 70%, the utilization rate of station b is 40%, and the utilization rate of station c is 10%. In this case, the number of people who have left water distribution area A (the number of people whose population has decreased in water distribution area A) can be calculated (estimated) by adding 70% of the number of people boarding (entering) at station a, 40% of the number of people boarding at station b, and 10% of the number of people boarding at station c. In addition, the number of people who have entered water distribution area A (the number of people whose population has increased in water distribution area A) can be calculated (estimated) by adding 70% of the number of people disembarking (entering) at station a, 40% of the number of people disembarking at station b, and 10% of the number of people disembarking at station c.

[0042] That is, the water demand prediction device 11 can use a population increase / decrease determination table 61 as shown in Figure 6 to calculate the population increase (or population decrease, calculated by subtracting the number of people who have increased in population from the number of people who have decreased in population) in a particular water distribution area.

[0043] In addition, if a standard population is set for each water distribution area, the water demand prediction device 11 can calculate (estimate) the population of the water distribution area based on the increase or decrease in population in the water distribution area calculated using the population increase / decrease determination table 61.

[0044] Next, a process of predicting water demand in accordance with the increase or decrease in population for each water distribution area (water demand prediction process) performed by the water demand prediction device 11 according to the embodiment will be described. FIG. 7 is a flowchart for explaining an example of the operation of the process of predicting the water demand for each water distribution area by the water demand prediction device 11 according to the embodiment. The processor 51 of the water demand prediction device 11 acquires (receives) information indicating the number of passengers at each station from the station information system 13 via the communication unit 54 (step ST11).

[0045] That is, the processor 51 of the water demand prediction device 11 acquires information indicating the number of passengers boarding and alighting at a station detected by the information processing device 30 in the station information system 13 from images captured by the camera 31, or the number of passengers boarding and alighting at a station calculated by aggregating the information collected by the information processing device 30 in the station information system 13 from the ticket gates 32.

[0046] When processor 51 of water demand prediction device 11 acquires information indicating the number of passengers getting on and off at each station from station information system 13, processor 51 estimates (calculates) the increase or decrease in population for each water distribution area based on population increase or decrease determination table 61 (step ST12). Processor 51 selects, based on population increase or decrease determination table 61, stations to be used for estimating the increase or decrease in population in the water distribution area for which water demand is to be predicted.

[0047] The processor 51 of the water demand forecasting device 11 selects stations to be used for estimating the population increase or decrease in the water distribution area, and then acquires the number of passengers boarding or alighting at those stations. The processor 51 calculates (estimates) the population increase or decrease in the water distribution area based on the number of passengers boarding or alighting at each station and the station utilization rate for each station for the water distribution area set in the population increase or decrease determination table 61.

[0048] After calculating the increase or decrease in population in the water distribution area, processor 51 of water demand prediction device 11 calculates the current population of the water distribution area (the population after the increase or decrease calculated from the number of passengers getting on or off) based on the calculated increase or decrease in population (step ST13). For example, processor 51 calculates the population in the water distribution area by adding the increase in population calculated from the number of passengers getting on or off (or subtracting the decrease in population) to the population in the water distribution area immediately before counting the number of passengers getting on or off at each station.

[0049] As a specific example, if the number of passengers getting on and off at each station is acquired every predetermined time (for example, every hour), processor 51 can calculate the current population of the water distribution area (at the time when the number of passengers getting on and off is counted) by adding the increase in population calculated from the number of passengers getting on and off within the predetermined time to the population before the predetermined time. Also, if the population of the water distribution area in the time period before the first train at each station is saved in memory unit 55 as the base population, processor 51 can sequentially calculate the population of the water distribution area from the increase or decrease in population for each predetermined time based on the base population.

[0050] Furthermore, the processor 51 of the water demand prediction device 11 identifies information indicating the water distribution conditions for the time period (prediction time period) for which the water demand in the water distribution area is predicted (step ST14). For example, when predicting the water demand for a time period (prediction time period) from the present to a predetermined time (e.g., one hour) from now, the processor 51 collects information indicating the water distribution conditions for the prediction time period from the information providing device 14.

[0051] As a specific example, the processor 51 acquires meteorological information (weather, temperature, humidity, etc.) for the water distribution area during the predicted time period as the water distribution conditions from the information providing device 14. The processor 51 may also acquire calendar date information and event information for the predicted time period as the water distribution conditions from the information providing device 14. The processor 51 identifies the water distribution conditions for the predicted time period in the water distribution area based on the information collected from each information providing device 14, etc.

[0052] After identifying the water distribution conditions for the predicted time period in the water distribution area, processor 51 of water demand prediction device 11 acquires from past record database 62 record data indicating actual values ​​of water demand when water was previously supplied to the water distribution area under water distribution conditions similar to the identified water distribution conditions (similar conditions) (step ST15). For example, processor 51 acquires from past record database 62 actual values ​​of water demand for the same time period on the same day of the week as the predicted time period and under conditions similar to the water distribution information for the predicted time period (for example, weather conditions).

[0053] Processor 51 of water demand prediction device 11 predicts the water demand in the water distribution area based on the actual water demand value in the water distribution area and the population (or population increase / decrease) in the water distribution area (step ST16). For example, processor 51 calculates the predicted value of water demand in the water distribution area for the prediction time period by varying the actual water demand value according to the difference (rate of increase / decrease) between the population of the water distribution area when the actual water demand value was measured in the past under similar conditions and the current population of the water distribution area.

[0054] After calculating the predicted value of the water demand in the water distribution area, the processor 51 of the water demand prediction device 11 transmits the calculated predicted value of the water demand to the water distribution control device 21 of the water distribution system 12 (step ST17).

[0055] The processor 51 of the water demand prediction device 11 executes the above-described water demand prediction process for each water distribution area every predetermined time (for example, every hour). This enables the water demand prediction device 11 to provide the predicted value of the water demand for each water distribution area to the water distribution control device 21 in the water distribution system 12.

[0056] As described above, the water demand prediction device of the embodiment obtains information indicating the number of passengers boarding and alighting at each station from the station information system, estimates the increase or decrease in population in the water distribution area based on the number of passengers boarding and alighting at each station, predicts the water demand in the water distribution area based on the increase or decrease in population in the water distribution area, and outputs the predicted value of the water demand for the water distribution area to the water distribution system.

[0057] As a result, the water demand prediction device according to the embodiment can predict appropriate water demand based on population increases or decreases estimated from the number of passengers boarding and alighting at stations, even if the lifestyle patterns of people (consumers) in the water distribution area suddenly change. As a result, it is possible to realize water demand predictions that are not significantly affected by sudden changes in the lifestyle patterns of consumers. For example, even if the number of telecommuters increases or decreases as a social phenomenon due to various factors, the increase or decrease in the population in the water distribution area can be estimated based on the number of passengers boarding and alighting at stations, and a water demand prediction based on the increase or decrease in the population in the water distribution area can be provided to the water operation system.

[0058] Although several embodiments of the present invention have been described, these embodiments are presented as examples and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention. These novel embodiments can be embodied in various other forms, and various omissions, substitutions, and modifications can be made without departing from the spirit of the invention. These embodiments and their modifications are included within the scope and spirit of the invention, and are also included in the scope of the invention and its equivalents as defined in the claims. [Explanation of symbols]

[0059] 1...Water operation system, 11...Water demand forecasting device, 12...Water distribution system, 13...Station information system, 14...information providing device, 21...Water distribution control device, 22...Water distribution equipment, 30...information processing device, 31...camera, 32...Ticket gate, 51...processor, 54…Communications Department, 55...Storage section, 61...Population increase / decrease determination table, 62...Performance database.

Claims

1. a communication unit that acquires information indicating the number of passengers boarding and alighting at each station; a processor that estimates a population increase or decrease in a water distribution area based on information indicating the number of passengers boarding and alighting at each station acquired by the communication unit, predicts water demand for the water distribution area based on the population increase or decrease in the water distribution area, and outputs the predicted value of water demand for the water distribution area to a device that controls the supply of water to the water distribution area; A water demand forecasting device having the above configuration.

2. the processor predicts the water demand in the water distribution area according to a change in population in the water distribution area based on a past actual value of the water demand in the water distribution area; The water demand forecasting device according to claim 1 .

3. Further, a storage unit for storing a performance database in which performance values ​​of past water demands in the water distribution area are stored in association with water distribution conditions, The processor predicts the water demand in the water distribution area according to a change in population in the water distribution area based on past actual water demand values ​​that result in water distribution conditions similar to those in a time period during which the water demand for the water distribution area is predicted. The water demand prediction device according to claim 2.

4. a memory unit for storing a population increase / decrease determination table that stores information indicating the utilization rate of each station for the water distribution area; The processor estimates a population increase or decrease in the water distribution area based on the number of passengers boarding and alighting at each station acquired by the communication unit and information stored in the population increase or decrease determination table. The water demand forecasting device according to claim 1 .

5. The processor acquires information indicating the number of passengers boarding and alighting at each station based on a count value of the number of passengers passing through a ticket gate installed at each station via the communication unit. The water demand forecasting device according to claim 1 .

6. The processor acquires information indicating the number of people getting on and off at each station based on the count values ​​of people entering and exiting the station detected from images taken by cameras installed at the entrances and exits of each station using the communication unit. The water demand forecasting device according to claim 1 .

7. On the computer, Obtain information indicating the number of passengers boarding and alighting at each station, Estimating a population increase or decrease in the water distribution area based on the information indicating the number of passengers boarding and alighting at each station; predicting the water demand in the water distribution area based on the increase or decrease in population in the water distribution area; outputting a predicted value of water demand for the water distribution area to a device that controls water supply to the water distribution area; A program that makes it happen.

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