Weather factors

Abstract

Systems and methods are provided for determining expected voyage costs. The systems and methods utilize multiple voyage simulations to determine cost information for each simulation. The voyage simulations utilize a digital twin model of the vessel, a predicted route for the vessel, and weather data associated with each route. Results of the simulations are used to generate statistical probabilities of the expected cost of the voyage, thereby facilitating more accurate cost forecasts that can be used to assess the feasibility and profitability of the voyage.

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates generally to transportation, and more particularly to transportation optimization. [Background technology]

[0002] Shipping costs are variable, and weather can have a significant adverse effect on shipping margins. On average, two-thirds of the voyage cost for transporting a given cargo by sea is attributable to fuel consumption. This makes accurate fuel consumption forecasts extremely important, especially for traders who must price such cargoes weeks before they are shipped. Therefore, it would be beneficial to have a system and method for predicting fuel consumption.

[0003] Voyage profit is determined by subtracting voyage costs from voyage revenue. Generally, voyage costs are determined by fuel consumption, fuel prices, fuel emission prices, voyage duration, charter hire, and port charges, most of which are highly variable. Voyage revenue, on the other hand, is determined by multiplying cargo weight by freight rates, which tend to be known, and in some cases negotiated, values. Therefore, it would be beneficial to have a system and method for determining reliable expected voyage costs so that reliable expected profits for various possible freight rates can be determined (or negotiated), thereby helping traders obtain better profit margins and / or helping traders avoid unprofitable transactions.

[0004] Predicting fuel consumption and voyage duration is a complex task that must take into account many factors, including certain factors sometimes referred to as sea margins or weather margins (herein "weather factors").

[0005] Weather factors are increases in voyage fuel consumption and voyage duration due to significant weather en route compared to voyages conducted under less significant weather conditions. Because there are so many factors associated with weather, it is unwise to rely solely on experience and "gut feeling" before embarking on a voyage. Therefore, it would be advantageous to have a system and method for accurately determining expected weather factors for a voyage.

[0006] There are several existing solutions for determining weather factors, but each solution has limitations and drawbacks. For example, some existing solutions utilize fixed weather factors, and some take seasonal changes into account. Unfortunately, determining weather factors by selecting from predetermined, fixed weather factor values has limited accuracy and is subject to human bias. Therefore, it would be beneficial to have a system and method for determining weather factors with a high level of accuracy. Furthermore, it would be beneficial to have a system and method that eliminates or otherwise limits the impact of human bias when determining weather factors.

[0007] Some existing solutions utilize historical shipping data or statistical post-processing. Unfortunately, such approaches often suffer from a lack of statistical significance due to a small population size of data points. There are only a few past routes with the same type of vessel, similar speed, and similar origin and destination points. Considering that time of year can be a major factor in determining an accurate statistical forecast, the number of relevant past routes becomes even fewer. In other words, when weather factors are determined using limited historical and / or statistical information, the reliability of predicted future weather factors is limited. Therefore, it would be beneficial to have a system and method for determining reliable weather factors.

[0008] Some existing solutions utilize one-off case studies. Unfortunately, such studies are time-consuming. Furthermore, such studies tend to be narrowly tailored to one vessel (class) and / or to a specific route. Any changes require entirely new, time-consuming case studies. Therefore, it would be beneficial to have a system and method for quickly determining weather factors. It would be even more beneficial to quickly determine various weather factors based on the influencers (herein "influencers") of the various weather factors, thereby increasing the applicability of the information. Summary of the Invention

[0009] The present invention provides a system and method for obtaining accurate predictions of fuel consumption for long-distance voyages, thereby assisting traders in pricing such cargo weeks before the cargo is transported. In some embodiments, the system utilizes various information, such as, for example, ship characteristics, cargo weight, expected departure date, expected weather, expected route, expected speed, and expected voyage duration, to determine expected fuel consumption.

[0010] The present invention further provides a system and method for determining reliable expected voyage costs, thereby assisting traders in obtaining better profit margins and / or assisting traders in avoiding unprofitable transactions.

[0011] Additionally, the present invention comprises a system and method for accurately determining expected weather factors.

[0012] Additionally, the present invention determines accurate weather factors.

[0013] Additionally, the present invention eliminates or otherwise limits the influence of human bias when determining weather factors.

[0014] Furthermore, the present invention provides reliable weather factor determination.

[0015] Additionally, the present invention quickly determines various weather factors based on various influencers.

[0016] In some embodiments, the invention utilizes a simulation model during the simulation step. In some such embodiments, the simulation model is a high-fidelity digital twin model of the vessel, thereby taking into account vessel-specific characteristics. In some embodiments, the simulation step utilizes a route selection algorithm, such as a search algorithm. In some embodiments, the algorithm uses weather data (weather-optimized route selection) to optimize a route based on shortest overall time, lowest fuel consumption, lowest total cost, or the like. In some embodiments, the simulation model is used to determine the impact of external influences (such as bad weather or ocean currents) on the vessel during the simulation, the external influences affecting overall vessel performance, such as through loss of speed, increased fuel consumption, and increased emissions. In some embodiments, the invention facilitates the development of one or more potential routes and / or the identification of one or more restricted routes and / or restricted areas.

[0017] In some embodiments, the present invention utilizes historical information, such as historical weather / climate information. In some embodiments, the present invention utilizes current information, such as weather observation data. In some embodiments, the present invention utilizes forecast information, such as weather forecast information. In some embodiments, the present invention utilizes a variety of information, such as historical, current, and / or forecast information.

[0018] According to a first aspect, there is provided a system for determining expected costs of a prospective voyage of a vessel, the system comprising a voyage simulator for performing a plurality of voyage simulations, each voyage simulation utilising voyage information, vessel information and weather information to determine cost information.

[0019] Preferably, the voyage simulator utilises a digital twin model of the ship and at least part of the ship information is utilised to define the digital twin model.

[0020] Preferably, the voyage information comprises at least one of a departure location, a departure date and time, a predicted route, a prescribed or predicted travel speed, a destination location, and a required or desired arrival date and time.

[0021] Preferably, the cost information comprises at least one of fuel consumption, emissions and voyage duration.

[0022] Preferably, the weather information is associated with a geographic area that includes the predicted route and the first alternative route.

[0023] Preferably, the plurality of voyage simulations comprises a first voyage simulation and a second voyage simulation, where the first voyage simulation utilizes voyage information associated with the predicted route and the second voyage simulation utilizes voyage information associated with the first alternative route. More preferably, the plurality of voyage simulations comprises a first voyage simulation and a second voyage simulation, where the first voyage simulation utilizes weather information associated with a first time period and the second voyage simulation utilizes weather information associated with a second time period, the first time period and the second time period being offset in time from each other by at least one year. More preferably, the first voyage simulation utilizes voyage information associated with the predicted route and the second voyage simulation utilizes voyage information associated with the first alternative route.

[0024] Preferably, the system further comprises a probability module configured to determine a first statistical probability of an expected cost of the voyage based on cost information from each of the plurality of voyage simulations. More preferably, the first statistical probability of the expected cost is associated with a first expected cost, and the probability module is further configured to determine a second statistical probability of the expected cost associated with a second expected cost.

[0025] According to a second aspect, there is provided a method for determining an expected cost of a projected voyage of a vessel, the method comprising: performing a plurality of voyage simulations, wherein each voyage simulation utilizes vessel information, voyage information, and weather information to determine cost information for each voyage simulation.

[0026] Preferably, the voyage simulator utilises a digital twin model of the ship and at least part of the ship information is utilised to define the digital twin model.

[0027] Preferably, the voyage information comprises at least one of a departure location, a departure date and time, a predicted route, a prescribed or predicted travel speed, a destination location, and a required or desired arrival date and time.

[0028] Preferably, the cost information comprises at least one of fuel consumption, emissions and voyage duration.

[0029] Preferably, the weather information is associated with a geographic area that includes the predicted route and the first alternative route.

[0030] Preferably, the plurality of voyage simulations comprises a first voyage simulation and a second voyage simulation, the first voyage simulation utilizing voyage information associated with the predicted route and the second voyage simulation utilizing voyage information associated with the first alternative route. More preferably, the plurality of voyage simulations comprises a first voyage simulation and a second voyage simulation, the first voyage simulation utilizing weather information associated with a first time period and the second voyage simulation utilizing weather information associated with a second time period, the first time period and the second time period being offset in time from each other by at least one year.

[0031] Preferably, the first voyage simulation utilizes voyage information associated with the predicted route and the second voyage simulation utilizes voyage information associated with the first alternative route.

[0032] Preferably, the method further comprises determining a first statistical probability of the expected cost of the voyage based on cost information from each of the plurality of voyage simulations.

[0033] Preferably, the method further comprises determining a second statistical probability of the expected cost, the first statistical probability and the second statistical probability of the expected cost being associated with the first expected cost and the second expected cost, respectively.

[0034] Embodiments of the present invention are described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0035] [Figure 1] 10 is a chart displaying a distribution of variable costs associated with en-route weather conditions according to an exemplary embodiment; [Figure 2] FIG. 1 illustrates a process overview and voyage simulation in accordance with an illustrative embodiment; [Figure 3]FIG. 1 is a visual representation of three digital twins relevant to the present invention, each associated with a different time period. [Figure 4A] A visual representation of the three digital twins in Figure 3, with each digital twin shown in its relative position near the beginning of the voyage. [Figure 4B] A visual representation of the three digital twins in Figure 3, with each digital twin shown in its relative position near the midpoint of the voyage. [Figure 4C] A visual representation of the three digital twins in Figure 3, with each digital twin shown in its relative position near the end of the voyage. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0036] Where necessary, detailed embodiments of the present invention are disclosed herein, however, it should be understood that the disclosed embodiments are merely illustrative of the principles of the present invention, which may be embodied in various forms. Accordingly, the specific structural and functional details disclosed herein should not be construed as limiting, but merely as a basis for the claims and as a representative basis for teaching those skilled in the art to variously employ the present invention in substantially any appropriately detailed structure.

[0037] The present invention comprises a dynamic weather factoring system and method. In some embodiments, the system utilizes a two-stage weather factoring process. In some embodiments, the first stage of the process is a simulation stage. In some embodiments, the second stage of the process is a dynamic statistical output stage. In some embodiments, the two-stage weather factoring system and method utilizes multiple inputs, such as multiple data, to initiate either the first stage or the second stage, or both.

[0038] In some embodiments, the input includes one or more of voyage and / or vessel details. In some embodiments, general voyage details include one or more of: origin and destination locations (and / or coordinates), indicated and / or expected speed of the voyage, and departure date and time, etc. In some embodiments, vessel details (or particulars) include one or more of: vessel dimensions (specific and / or approximate), vessel safety margins (such as under keel clearance, or UKC), vessel draft, and vessel depth, etc. In some embodiments, vessel details further include one or more details related to vessel type and cargo, such as, for example, cargo type and cargo capacity. In some embodiments, the input further includes one or more costs, such as, for example, fuel costs, labor costs, and maintenance costs. In some embodiments, the input further includes one or more details of a model of the vessel, such as a digital model, including one or more characteristics describing the vessel making the voyage. In some embodiments, the input includes one or more restrictions. In some embodiments, the restrictions are no-go areas, such as, for example, areas restricted by environmental regulations and areas restricted by legal regulations. In some embodiments, the system adheres to and / or provides indications of various restrictions and considerations, such as round-trip traffic separation schemes, default port approaches, dangerous cargo type restrictions, vessel size restrictions, bridge vertical clearance restrictions, maximum draft restrictions, depth restrictions, vessel tonnage restrictions, vessel class restrictions, shortcut areas based on origin or destination ports, seasonal whale conservation areas with speed restrictions, apex restrictions for staying clear of northern or southern hemisphere ice areas, piracy avoidance areas, and user-specific avoidance areas. In some embodiments, one or more details of the route are included in the input. In some embodiments, the route details include one or more fixed points or waypoints, which are proposed and / or required points that the route would ideally pass or must pass through during the voyage.

[0039] In some embodiments, a high-fidelity digital twin model of the vessel is included. The digital twin model includes certain characteristics of its real-world counterpart. The digital twin model may include, for example, the vessel's dimensions, performance characteristics, maintenance requirements, and data-driven models of the vessel's physical components and characteristics.

[0040] In some embodiments, the input includes historical weather data. In some embodiments, the historical weather data includes data such as historical wind conditions, ocean conditions, precipitation, temperature, and other weather conditions relevant to the assessment of the voyage. In some embodiments, the historical weather data is based on a predetermined time frame of historical weather conditions, such as the past 20 years.

[0041] In some embodiments, the first stage of the systems and methods includes a simulation. In some embodiments, the simulation is a voyage simulation. In some embodiments, the voyage simulation utilizes one or more of inputs (such as a digital twin) and historical weather data. The simulation, in some embodiments, is performed by a computer system that can be programmed to simulate a voyage. The computer system, in some embodiments, is programmed to simulate a voyage by executing one or more programs and / or modules. In some embodiments, the computer system is programmed to simulate a voyage by running multiple individual simulations, each simulation based on a different set of historical weather conditions. In some embodiments, the computer system is programmed to simulate the progression of a vessel along a route by considering the inputs and historical weather conditions. In some embodiments, the computer system is programmed to simulate the progression of a vessel along a route by considering the inputs and historical weather conditions and by making predictions about future weather conditions. In some embodiments, the computer system is programmed to simulate the progression of a vessel along a route by considering the inputs and historical weather conditions and by making predictions about future weather conditions and about vessel performance related to future weather conditions. In some embodiments, the computer system is programmed to simulate the progression of the vessel along the route by considering the inputs and past weather conditions, and by making predictions about future weather conditions, and by making predictions about the performance of the vessel related to the future weather conditions, and by making predictions about the cost of the vessel related to the future weather conditions.

[0042] In some embodiments, during the first stage, the computer system is programmed to determine the vessel's progress based at least in part (but in some embodiments, entirely) on a set of predetermined rules or data points. In some embodiments, the predetermined rules include one or more non-dynamic aspects of navigation, input, and / or weather data. For example, if the vessel is scheduled to arrive at a port at a specific time, the computer system simulates the vessel's progress up to that point; if the vessel is scheduled to depart from a port at a specific time, the computer system simulates the vessel's progress from that point. As a further example, if the vessel is scheduled to call at a specific location, the computer system simulates the vessel's progress up to that point; if the vessel is scheduled to call at a specific location for a specific time, the computer system simulates the vessel's progress up to that point and for the duration of the call; and further, if the vessel is scheduled to call at a specific location for a specific time and then depart at a specific time, the computer system simulates the vessel's progress up to that point, for the duration of the call, and for the duration of the call.

[0043] In some embodiments, the computer simulates multiple simulated voyages in parallel. In some embodiments, one or more algorithms are utilized to perform one or more of the simulations. In some embodiments, the various simulations utilize the same input parameters, in some embodiments, each simulation utilizes input parameters with variance, and in some embodiments, some input parameters are similar across simulations while one or more other input parameters vary across simulations. In some embodiments, historical weather data is one input parameter, which in some embodiments is similar across simulations and in some embodiments varies across simulations. In some embodiments, the historical weather data is segmented by time (e.g., by minute, hour, day, month, year, etc.), and in some embodiments, the various simulations utilize different time segments of the historical weather data as at least one input for each of the various simulations.

[0044] In some embodiments, the second stage of the systems and methods includes one or more dynamic statistical outputs. In some embodiments, the dynamic statistical outputs are statistical probabilities. In some embodiments, the statistical probabilities are the result of one or more outputs of multiple simulations performed in the first stage of the systems and methods. In some embodiments, the statistical probabilities and / or outputs indicate the likelihood of occurrence of one or more parameters (in some embodiments, based on one or more simulations). In some embodiments, such parameters include, but are not limited to, fuel consumption, emissions, and voyage duration.

[0045] The probability of occurrence of a parameter is expressed in some embodiments as a percentage or number of occurrences out of the total number of simulations performed. In some embodiments, the statistical probability is expressed as a distribution. In some embodiments, the distribution is a normal distribution. In some embodiments, the distribution is expressed as a curve. In some embodiments, the distribution is a histogram. In some embodiments, the statistical probability is expressed by percentiles.

[0046] In some embodiments, the dynamic statistical output further includes one or more details of the simulations. In some embodiments, the dynamic statistical output further includes one or more details of the voyages simulated in the first stage. In some embodiments, the dynamic statistical output further includes one or more details of the weather conditions utilized in the various simulations. In some embodiments, the dynamic statistical output further includes one or more details of the performance of the vessel in the various simulations. In some embodiments, the dynamic statistical output further includes one or more details of the cost of the vessel in the various simulations.

[0047] In some embodiments, the dynamic statistical output further includes one or more recommendations, such as a recommended route or route modifications. In some embodiments, the recommendations are based on statistical probabilities and / or simulation details. In some embodiments, the recommendations are based on statistical probabilities and / or simulation details and are generated by a computer system. In some embodiments, the recommendations are based on statistical probabilities and / or simulation details and are generated by a computer system programmed to generate recommendations by one or more algorithms, etc. In some embodiments, the recommendations are based on statistical probabilities and / or simulation details and are generated by a computer system programmed to generate recommendations by utilizing one or more programs and / or modules. In some embodiments, the recommendations are based on statistical probabilities and / or simulation details and are generated by a computer system programmed to generate recommendations by utilizing one or more programs and / or modules and by utilizing one or more algorithms.

[0048] In some embodiments, the systems and methods further include utilizing the disclosed first and second stages to further perform a third stage. In some embodiments, the third stage includes combining one or more outputs of the second stage with one or more forecasted weather data. In some embodiments, the combining is performed on a computing system having one or more algorithms. In some embodiments, the result of the combination is one or more outputs, the outputs providing estimated or exact arrival times for one or more en route vessels.

[0049] In some embodiments, the invention includes a system for determining the expected cost of a projected voyage of a vessel, such as a shipping vessel. In some such embodiments, the system and method include or utilize a voyage simulator for performing multiple voyage simulations. With reference to FIGS. 3 and 4A-4C, some of the multiple voyage simulations follow the same or similar route using weather information from respective time periods, thereby facilitating the determination of cost information, such as voyage duration, fuel consumption, and emissions, for each time period. In other embodiments, some of the multiple voyage simulations follow different routes using weather information from the same or similar time periods. In yet other embodiments, some of the multiple voyage simulations follow different routes using weather information from respective time periods.

[0050] The above and other objects are intended to be illustrative of the present invention and are not intended to be limiting. Many possible embodiments of the present invention may be made and will become readily apparent from a consideration of the following specification and the accompanying drawings, which form a part hereof. Various features and subcombinations of the invention may be employed without reference to other features and subcombinations. Other objects and advantages of the present invention will become apparent from the following description taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, in which embodiments of the present invention and various features thereof are set forth by way of illustration and example.

Claims

1. 1. A system for determining an expected cost of a projected voyage of a vessel, the system comprising a voyage simulator for performing a plurality of voyage simulations, each voyage simulation utilizing voyage information, vessel information, and weather information to determine cost information.

2. 2. The system of claim 1, wherein the voyage simulator utilizes a digital twin model of the vessel, and at least a portion of the vessel information is utilized to define the digital twin model.

3. The voyage information is The location of the departure point, and Departure date and time, The predicted route and the commanded or expected speed of travel; The location of the destination, and the requested or desired arrival date and time; The system according to claim 1 or 2, comprising at least one of:

4. The cost information is Fuel consumption and Emissions and The duration of the voyage and The system according to any one of claims 1 to 3, comprising at least one of:

5. The system of any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the weather information is associated with a geographic area that includes the predicted route and a first alternative route.

6. 6. The system of claim 1, wherein the plurality of voyage simulations comprises a first voyage simulation and a second voyage simulation, the first voyage simulation utilizing voyage information associated with the predicted route, and the second voyage simulation utilizing voyage information associated with the first alternative route.

7. 6. The system of claim 5, wherein the plurality of voyage simulations comprises a first voyage simulation and a second voyage simulation, the first voyage simulation utilizing weather information associated with a first time period and the second voyage simulation utilizing weather information associated with a second time period, the first time period and the second time period being offset in time from one another by at least one year.

8. 8. The system of claim 7, wherein the first voyage simulation utilizes navigation information associated with the predicted route and the second voyage simulation utilizes navigation information associated with the first alternative route.

9. 9. The system of claim 1, further comprising a probability module configured to determine a first statistical probability of an expected cost of the voyage based on cost information from each of the plurality of voyage simulations.

10. 10. The system of claim 9, wherein the first statistical probability of expected cost is associated with a first expected cost, and the probability module is further configured to determine a second statistical probability of expected cost associated with a second expected cost.

11. 1. A method for determining an expected cost of a projected voyage of a vessel, comprising: executing a plurality of voyage simulations, wherein each voyage simulation comprises: Ship information, Voyage information, and Using weather information, determining cost information for each voyage simulation; A method comprising:

12. 12. The method of claim 11, wherein the voyage simulator utilizes a digital twin model of the vessel, and at least a portion of the vessel information is utilized to define the digital twin model.

13. The voyage information is The location of the departure point, and Departure date and time, The predicted route and the commanded or expected speed of travel; The location of the destination, and the requested or desired arrival date and time; 13. The method of claim 11 or 12, comprising at least one of:

14. The cost information is Fuel consumption and Emissions and The duration of the voyage and The method according to any one of claims 11 to 13, comprising at least one of:

15. The method of any one of claims 11 to 14, wherein the weather information is associated with a geographical area that includes the predicted route and a first alternative route.

16. 16. The method of claim 11, wherein the plurality of voyage simulations comprises a first voyage simulation and a second voyage simulation, the first voyage simulation utilizing voyage information associated with the predicted route, and the second voyage simulation utilizing voyage information associated with the first alternative route.

17. 16. The method of claim 15, wherein the plurality of voyage simulations comprises a first voyage simulation and a second voyage simulation, the first voyage simulation utilizing weather information associated with a first time period and the second voyage simulation utilizing weather information associated with a second time period, the first time period and the second time period being offset in time from one another by at least one year.

18. 18. The method of claim 17, wherein the first voyage simulation utilizes navigation information associated with the predicted route and the second voyage simulation utilizes navigation information associated with the first alternative route.

19. 19. The method of any one of claims 11 to 18, further comprising determining a first statistical probability of an expected cost of the voyage based on cost information from each of the plurality of voyage simulations.

20. 20. The method of claim 19, further comprising determining a second statistical probability of expected cost, the first statistical probability and the second statistical probability of expected cost being associated with the first expected cost and the second expected cost, respectively.

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