Supply chain risk scenario creation support device, supply chain risk scenario creation support method and program

Abstract

The challenge is to generate more accurate risk scenarios than before in the event of an incident. [Solution] To address this challenge, we propose a supply chain risk scenario creation support device that identifies similar groups of incident information that meet the risk scenario creation conditions (target information) in risk scenario creation, using at least one of the following: the time from incident occurrence to the occurrence of a reduction in parts supply, the time and quantity of the reduction in parts supply, and the time and quantity of recovery from the reduction in parts supply. Based on these similar groups, it creates risk scenarios and calculates a risk procurement plan based on the created risk scenarios.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a technique for creating a supply chain risk scenario (hereinafter simply referred to as a risk scenario) for coping with incidents in a supply chain.

Background Art

[0002] In recent years, geopolitical risks indicating an increase in political, military, and social tensions due to geographical factors have been increasing. There are also risks of natural disasters due to global warming and the like. Along with these geopolitical risks and natural disaster risks, the risk of supply chain disruption has also been increasing. As a countermeasure against this risk of supply chain disruption, for example, Patent Document 1 has been proposed.

[0003] Patent Document 1 aims to "reduce the risks received by a company that receives parts supply from a supply chain." For this purpose, Patent Document 1 discloses "a disaster crisis management system including a server 1 capable of communicating with user terminals 151 and 152 of a company, and a risk information extraction unit 100 that detects and extracts risk information indicating risk contents including disasters, accidents, etc. from information collected from information sources including SNS. The server 1 acquires risk information from the risk information extraction unit 100, and uses the risk information, the stored supplier company information database 30 and the supplier product information database 40 to identify suppliers affected by the risk information, and generates an alert notification including the content of the risk information, the company information of the identified supplier, the supply chain information to which the identified supplier belongs, and the product information of the identified supplier, and transmits the alert notification to the user terminals 151 and 152."

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0004]

Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

[0005] Therefore, in creating risk scenarios, it is necessary to make more accurate predictions. Furthermore, in creating these risk scenarios, it is necessary to use incident information that is highly relevant to the target of prediction, and thus, the extraction of such incident information is required.

[0006] Patent Document 1 describes detecting risk information, including disasters and accidents, and affected supplier information, from information collected from information sources including social media. However, it does not describe predicting quantitative information affecting the supply chain, such as the amount of reduction in parts supply due to risk, or extracting incident information to improve prediction accuracy, making it difficult to create accurate risk scenarios. Therefore, the present invention aims to generate more accurate risk scenarios than conventional methods when an incident has occurred or is expected to occur. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] To solve the above problems, the present invention identifies similar groups of incident information that meet the conditions for creating a risk scenario, and supports the creation of a risk scenario based on these similar groups.

[0008] More specifically, the supply chain risk scenario creation support device creates risk scenarios to address the reduction in parts supply from suppliers caused by the occurrence of an incident, and comprises a storage unit that stores incident information which is target information indicating an incident, parts supply reduction information which indicates the amount of reduction in parts supply corresponding to the occurrence of the incident, and risk scenario creation conditions for creating the risk scenario; an incident information extraction unit that extracts incident information corresponding to the risk scenario creation conditions from the storage unit; a similarity group creation unit that calculates the similarity of each incident information stored in the storage unit and groups similar incident information; a mitigation method creation unit that creates a method for mitigating the risk scenario creation conditions based on the incident information grouped by the similarity group creation unit and the incident information extracted by the incident information extraction unit; a risk scenario creation condition unit that creates risk scenario creation conditions to mitigate the risk scenario creation conditions based on the mitigation method created by the mitigation method creation unit when there is no incident information corresponding to the risk scenario creation conditions in the incident information extraction unit; and a risk scenario creation unit that creates a risk scenario based on the scenario creation conditions created by the risk scenario creation condition creation unit.

[0009] Furthermore, the present invention also includes a supply chain risk scenario creation support device, including the supply chain risk scenario creation support device described above, and a method for creating supply chain risk scenarios using these devices. Moreover, the present invention also includes a program for making the supply chain risk scenario creation support device function as a computer, and a storage medium for storing the same. [Effects of the Invention]

[0010] According to the present invention, it is possible to generate more accurate risk scenarios. [Brief explanation of the drawing]

[0011] [Figure 1] This is a functional block diagram of the supply chain risk scenario creation support device 1 in one embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 2] This figure shows incident information 1911 in one embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 3] This figure shows the scenario creation condition 1912 in one embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 4] This figure shows component supply reduction information 1913 in one embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 5] This figure shows procurement plan 1914 for one embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 6] This figure shows similar group information 1921 in one embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 7] This figure shows a relaxation method 1922 in one embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 8] This figure shows the risk scenario creation conditions 1923 in one embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 9] This figure shows reference data 1924 in one embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 10] This figure shows risk scenario 1925 in one embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 11] This figure shows the risk procurement plan 1926 in one embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 12] This is a flowchart showing the risk scenario generation process flow in one embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 13] This figure shows the change in the supply quantity of parts in one embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 14] This figure shows a display screen 1100 in an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 15] This is a hardware configuration diagram of the supply chain risk scenario creation support device 1 in one embodiment of the present invention. [Modes for carrying out the invention]

[0012] Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described. In this embodiment, a risk scenario is created to address an incident, which is an example of a risk that affects the supply chain. The risk scenario includes a component supply reduction scenario that reduces the supply volume of components related to the supply chain. Hereinafter, the content will be described with reference to the drawings.

[0013] First, the configuration of a supply chain risk scenario creation support device for creating a risk scenario will be described. FIG. 1 is a functional block diagram of a supply chain risk scenario creation support device 1 in this embodiment. The supply chain risk scenario creation support device 1 includes an input / output unit 11, a risk scenario creation target selection unit 12, a risk scenario creation condition creation unit 13, an incident information extraction unit 14, a similar group creation unit 15, a mitigation method creation unit 16, a risk scenario creation unit 17, a procurement outlook calculation unit 18, and a storage unit 19.

[0014] First, the input / output unit 11 has input and output functions for various information and instructions. The input function includes receiving operations from the user and the like. Here, in order to realize this input function, an input device such as a keyboard or a communication device connected to the user terminal can be used. Also, the output function includes display and communication to other devices. Therefore, in order to realize the output function, a display device or a communication device can be used.

[0015] Note that the input / output unit 11 may be configured integrally or may be realized by a plurality of configurations such as by function. In the former case, it can be realized by a touch panel. In the latter case, it can be realized by an input device and a display device. Further, in addition to or instead of these, the input / output unit 11 can be realized by a communication device.

[0016] Furthermore, the risk scenario creation target selection unit 12 selects incident information, which is the target information for the risk scenario to be created, in accordance with the operations received by the input / output unit 11. In addition, the risk scenario creation condition creation unit 13 creates the creation conditions for the risk scenario. This creation of creation conditions also includes changing the creation conditions. For this reason, the risk scenario creation condition creation unit 13 can also be referred to as the scenario creation condition modification unit.

[0017] Furthermore, the incident information extraction unit 14 extracts incident information that matches the scenario creation conditions from the storage unit 19. Here, the scenario creation conditions may be stored in the storage unit 19 in advance, or they may be received by the input / output unit 11. It is also desirable for the incident information extraction unit 14 to extract multiple incident information. Furthermore, the similarity group creation unit 15 calculates the similarity of each incident information stored in the storage unit 19 and groups similar incident information. Here, similar incident information means multiple incident information within a predetermined similarity level.

[0018] Furthermore, the mitigation method creation unit 16 creates mitigation methods for scenario creation conditions based on the incident information grouped by the similar group creation unit 15 and the incident information extracted by the incident information extraction unit 14. The risk scenario creation unit 17 then creates risk scenarios using the mitigation methods created by the mitigation method creation unit 16. These risk scenarios include, for example, a parts supply reduction scenario in which the supply volume of parts related to the supply chain is reduced.

[0019] Furthermore, the procurement forecast calculation unit 18 calculates the forecast for the amount of parts to be procured in the supply chain using risk scenarios, such as the parts supply reduction scenario created by the risk scenario creation unit 17. In addition, the storage unit 19 stores input information 191 and output information 192. Input information 191 is received via the input / output unit 11 and includes incident information 1911, scenario creation conditions 1912, parts supply reduction information 1913, and procurement plan 1914. Output information 192 is output from the above-mentioned configurations, such as the input / output unit 11, and includes similar group information 1921, mitigation methods 1922, risk scenario creation conditions 1923, reference data 1924, risk scenario 1925, and risk procurement plan 1926.

[0020] Each of these pieces of information will be explained below. In this embodiment, the information is divided into input information 191 and output information 192, but this division is not required. First, Figure 2 shows the incident information 1911 in this embodiment. Incident information 1911 is the target information related to the incident and includes the items of incident number, risk, area, industry, impact, and change in parts supply quantity.

[0021] First, the incident number is an item that identifies the incident in question and may be in a format other than a number. The risk indicates the nature of the risk in the incident. Risks can include not only natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, or typhoons as illustrated, but also man-made disasters such as accidents, wars, and conflicts.

[0022] Furthermore, the area indicates the region where the risk of the incident in question occurs. In this embodiment, countries (United States, Japan) and states or prefectures (MI, Tokyo, etc.) are used, but cities or other areas such as a country may also be used. The industry indicates the industry related to the supply chain, specifically the industry of the products or components handled. The impact indicates the degree of risk.

[0023] Furthermore, the change in parts supply volume is time-series data showing the change in parts supply volume in the supply chain due to the occurrence of the relevant incident. For example, if an earthquake of magnitude 4 occurs in the United States (MI) with incident number 1, the behavior of the change in parts supply volume over time is shown. More specifically, the behavior shows (1) the time until the reduction in parts supply occurs, (2) the time and quantity of parts supply during the reduction, and (3) the time and quantity of recovery from the reduction in parts supply.

[0024] The supply quantity of parts may be set for each part, or it may be a uniform quantity that does not apply to parts. Furthermore, it may be set for each type of part.

[0025] Note that while Figure 2 shows these items, other items may be added or some may be omitted. Also, Incident Information 1911 may indicate an incident that occurred in the past, or an incident that is predicted or anticipated to occur.

[0026] Next, Figure 3 shows the scenario creation conditions 1912 in this embodiment. The scenario creation conditions 1912 indicate the conditions for creating a risk scenario and include the items of scenario number, risk, area, industry, and impact. The scenario number is an item that identifies the relevant scenario and may be in a format other than a number.

[0027] Furthermore, each item from Risk to Impact is the same as in Incident Information 1911, and indicates the conditions for creating the scenario. Thus, Scenario Creation Conditions 1912 has each item corresponding to Incident Information 1911. In addition, Scenario Creation Conditions 1912 may also include changes in the amount of parts supplied, similar to Incident Information 1911.

[0028] Next, Figure 4 shows the parts supply reduction information 1913 in this embodiment. The parts supply reduction information 1913 is information that shows the impact on the supply of parts in an incident that has occurred or is expected to occur. As this impact, the change in the supply quantity (more preferably the reduction) can be used. The change in the reduction amount can be the number of parts supplied, the supply capacity (percentage), etc.

[0029] Therefore, parts supply reduction information 1913 includes the following items: incident number, date, and supply capacity. The incident number is the incident number from incident information 1911. The date indicates the date on which the incident occurred. This date may also be the date and time on which the incident is expected to occur. Furthermore, the supply capacity indicates the supply capacity, which is an example of the change in supply quantity when the incident occurs. This supply capacity represents the ratio of the supply capacity to that when the incident does not occur. Note that the supply capacity in parts supply reduction information 1913 may be set for each type or group of parts, or it may be uniform for all parts as in this example.

[0030] Next, Figure 5 shows the procurement plan 1914 in this embodiment. The procurement plan 1914 shows the plan for procuring each component in the supply chain under normal circumstances, such as when no incident has occurred. For this purpose, the procurement plan 1914 has the following items: component ID, due date, and quantity. The component ID identifies the component in question. The due date indicates the period (final day) until the component in question is procured. The quantity indicates the quantity to be procured. Note that the procurement plan 1914 may also use other items such as monetary value.

[0031] Next, Figure 6 shows the similar group information 1921 in this embodiment. The similar group information 1921 indicates the similar groups created by the similar group creation unit 15. The similar group information 1921 indicates which similar group each record of the incident information 1911 belongs to. For this purpose, the similar group information 1921 has the following items: incident number, risk, area, industry, impact, and similar group number. Here, the items from incident number to impact are the same as in the incident information 1911. In other words, the similar group information 1921 is information to which the similar group number has been added to the incident information 1911. Here, the similar group number is an item that identifies the similar group, but information other than a number may also be used. In this embodiment, the similar group information 1921 is in the form of incident information 1911 with a similar group number added, but since it is sufficient to know which similar group each incident information belongs to, it may also consist of the incident number and the similar group number. Furthermore, the incident information 1911 and the similar group information 1921 may be configured as a single piece of information. Therefore, similar to incident information 1911, changes in the amount of parts supplied may also be included in the similar group information 1921.

[0032] Figure 7 shows the mitigation method 1922 in this embodiment. The mitigation method 1922 is created by the mitigation method creation unit 16 and indicates mitigable conditions in the risk scenario creation conditions, that is, the incident information items. In other words, it indicates the modifiable content of the risk scenario creation conditions. For this purpose, the mitigation method 1922 has the items of mitigation priority, item, and content. The mitigation priority indicates the priority of mitigation, that is, the modifiable priority. The item indicates the mitigable item among the risk scenario creation conditions. In the example in Figure 7, areas are set for each mitigable item. Furthermore, the content is set to the mitigable content for the corresponding item. In the example in Figure 7, it is shown that mitigation is possible for the United States (MI) and Japan (Tokyo) as areas.

[0033] Next, Figure 8 shows the risk scenario creation conditions 1923 in this embodiment. The risk scenario creation conditions 1923 show the content after the scenario creation conditions 1912 have been relaxed using the relaxation method 1922. Therefore, the risk scenario creation conditions 1923 have the same items as the scenario creation conditions 1912, and the changed records have been added. In the example in Figure 8, the area shown in the relaxation method 1922 in Figure 7 is the United States (NY), and the scenario creation conditions for the United States (MI) have been added. In this embodiment, the relaxed scenario creation conditions may be set as the relaxation method 1922. Furthermore, the risk scenario creation conditions 1923 may also include changes in the amount of parts supplied, similar to the incident information 1911.

[0034] Next, Figure 9 shows the reference data 1924 in this embodiment. The reference data 1924 is incident information to which the scenario creation conditions (records) added in the risk scenario creation conditions 1923 have been added. For this reason, it has the same items as the incident information 1911, and the information of incident number 1 corresponding to the scenario creation conditions added in the risk scenario creation conditions 1923 has been added. Note that, similar to the incident information 1911, parts supply quantity changes may also be included in the reference data 1924.

[0035] Next, Figure 10 shows the risk scenario 1925 in this embodiment. Risk scenario 1925 shows a mitigated scenario created using the risk scenario creation conditions 1923. A scenario is a procedure for calculating the forecast of the supply of parts and products due to an incident. In this embodiment, it has the following items: part ID, date, and sharing capacity. The part ID identifies the relevant part, similar to the procurement plan 1914. The date and sharing capacity are the same items as in the part supply reduction information 1913.

[0036] Next, Figure 11 shows the risk procurement plan 1926 in this embodiment. The risk procurement plan 1926 shows the procurement plan in which the supply quantity of procurement plan 1914 is reduced by risk scenario 1925. For this reason, the risk procurement plan 1926 has the same items as procurement plan 1914. Comparing the risk procurement plan 1926 with procurement plan 1914, it can be seen that the quantity after 4 / 30 in the risk procurement plan 1926 is smaller, indicating that the quantity of parts supplied has been reduced. In other words, in this embodiment, a procurement plan that reduces the supply of parts in response to the occurrence of an incident can be formulated, enabling a response that is more in line with the current situation.

[0037] This concludes the explanation of the information in this embodiment, and next, the processing flow in this embodiment will be described. Figure 12 is a flowchart showing the risk scenario generation processing flow in this embodiment. First, in step S1, the risk scenario creation target selection unit 12 selects incident information to be used for risk scenario creation, that is, target information. In other words, it selects incident information 1911 to be stored in the storage unit 19. For this purpose, it may select from incident information received from the input / output unit 11, or it may select from incident information that has been stored in advance. Then, the risk scenario creation target selection unit 12 stores this as input information 191 in the storage unit 19.

[0038] Furthermore, in step S2, the risk scenario creation condition creation unit 13 creates risk scenario creation conditions 1923 based on the selected incident. The risk scenario creation condition creation unit 13 stores these as input information 191 in the storage unit 19.

[0039] Furthermore, in step S3, the incident information extraction unit 14 creates extraction conditions for incident information to be used as reference data. These extraction conditions correspond to the scenario creation conditions, and the scenario creation conditions may be reused. In response, in step S4, the incident information extraction unit 14 extracts incident information that is reference data matching the extraction conditions. That is, the incident information extraction unit 14 extracts incident information corresponding to the scenario creation conditions from the incident information 1911 in the storage unit 19.

[0040] Furthermore, in step S5, it is determined whether there is any relevant reference data. In other words, it is determined whether incident information has been extracted. If there is (Y), the process proceeds to step S7. If there is no such data, the process proceeds to step S6. Note that this step is optional, and the process may proceed from step S4 to step S6, or from step S4 to step S7.

[0041] Furthermore, in step S6, a candidate range for the reference data is planned. In other words, the conditions for the incident information to be used as reference data are relaxed. To this end, the similarity group creation unit 15 first calculates the similarity of the incident information 1911 in the storage unit 19 and groups similar incident information together. Note that this grouping may be performed before step S6. In this case, it will be done regardless of the result of step S5.

[0042] Then, the mitigation method creation unit 16 creates a method for mitigating the incident information extraction conditions based on the grouped incident information and the incident information extracted by the incident information extraction unit 14. This mitigation method also includes a method for mitigating the scenario creation conditions. Furthermore, the mitigation method creation unit 16 uses the created mitigation method to mitigate the extraction conditions, particularly the scenario creation conditions.

[0043] Here, we will explain this mitigation process in detail using a specific example. First, let's explain grouping. The similarity group creation unit 15 extracts the changes in parts supply quantity from the incident information 1911. These changes in parts supply quantity show the temporal progression of parts supply quantity. These changes in parts supply quantity are shown in Figure 13. In Figure 13, "#" indicates the incident number. These changes in parts supply quantity are then grouped as follows: #2 and #5 into Gr.1, #1 and #4 into Gr.2, and #3 and #6 into Gr.3. In other words, the similarity group creation unit 15 groups the incident information 1911 according to the trend of changes in parts supply quantity.

[0044] Next, we will explain how to create a mitigation method using the grouped results. In this example, a record that will serve as a mitigation method will be added to the scenario creation condition 1912 in Figure 3. To do this, the mitigation method creation unit 16 selects a group that corresponds to the incident information in question. In this embodiment, the mitigation method creation unit 16 selects Gr.2 for incident numbers (#) 1 and 4, which at least partially match or are similar to the scenario creation condition 1912 in terms of area and industry. The mitigation method creation unit 16 also extracts the areas and industries used to select Gr.2. Then, the mitigation method creation unit 16 creates extraction conditions corresponding to these areas and industries, in particular, changes to the scenario creation conditions, as a mitigation method. In the example of Gr.2, the extracted areas and industries are the United States (MI), Japan (Tokyo), and semiconductors.

[0045] Next, the mitigation method creation unit 16 relaxes the extraction conditions, in particular the scenario creation conditions, based on the created mitigation method. That is, the mitigation method creation unit 16 adds extraction conditions, in particular the scenario creation conditions, using the extracted areas and industries. For example, since the United States (MI), Japan (Tokyo), and semiconductors have been extracted, the mitigation method creation unit 16 creates extraction conditions (scenario creation conditions) that include these. More preferably, the mitigation method creation unit 16 further extracts the United States (MI), which is close to the original extraction condition (scenario creation condition) United States (NY), and excludes semiconductors, whose industry does not match. As a result, the risk scenario creation condition creation unit 13 creates the scenario creation conditions for the second record in Figure 8. At this time, the risk scenario creation unit 17 compares the scenario creation conditions 1912 with the incident information and updates the scenario creation conditions 1912 stored in the storage unit 19 based on the comparison result. After processing as described above, step S6 is executed and the process transitions to step S2.

[0046] Furthermore, in step S7, the risk scenario creation unit 17 creates a risk scenario using the created mitigation method. This risk scenario includes a parts supply reduction scenario that reduces the amount of parts supplied. The risk scenario creation unit 17 then stores the created risk scenario as risk scenario 1925 in the storage unit 19.

[0047] Also in step S7, the procurement forecast calculation unit 18 creates a risk procurement plan that reflects the created risk scenario. This risk procurement plan is an example of a parts supply reduction procurement plan, which is a plan to reduce the amount of parts supplied. The procurement forecast calculation unit 18 then stores the created risk procurement plan as risk procurement plan 1926 in the storage unit 19.

[0048] Furthermore, in step S8, the risk scenario creation unit 17 and the procurement forecast calculation unit 18 each determine whether the number of data items created in step S7 is 1. If the result is 2 or more (N), the process proceeds to step S9. If the result is 1 (Y), the process proceeds to step S10.

[0049] Furthermore, in step S9, the risk scenario creation unit 17 and the procurement forecast calculation unit 18 each select output data from the created data. This selection may be performed according to instructions from the user via the input / output unit 11, or according to predetermined rules. Note that steps S8 and S9 may be omitted, and the process may proceed from step S7 to step S10.

[0050] Furthermore, in step S10, the risk scenario creation unit 17 outputs the created risk scenario 1925 via the input / output unit 11. This output includes notification to other devices and display on other devices or the supply chain risk scenario creation support device 1.

[0051] Furthermore, in step S11, the procurement forecast calculation unit 18 outputs the created risk procurement plan 1926 via the input / output unit 11. This output includes notification to other devices and display on other devices or the supply chain risk scenario creation support device 1.

[0052] Here, we will describe a specific example of the display that illustrates the output in steps S10 and S11. Figure 14 shows the display screen 1100 in this embodiment. This display screen 1100 includes the risk scenario creation conditions 1101, the risk scenario 1102, and the parts procurement plan 1103. Note that it is sufficient for at least one of these to be displayed.

[0053] First, the risk scenario creation condition 1101 represents the scenario creation condition 1912, and the display format of the area for items that have been relaxed (added), or in particular modified, is distinguished from the others.

[0054] Furthermore, while Risk Scenario 1102 is a graphical representation of the created Risk Scenario 1925, it does not necessarily have to be in graphical form. In the figure, items 1 to 3 show the supply capacity for "time until parts supply reduction occurs," "time of parts supply reduction," and "time to recover from parts supply reduction," respectively. In this way, the scenario shows the relationship between the supply quantity of parts over time.

[0055] Furthermore, while the parts procurement plan 1103 presents the procurement plan 1914 and the risk procurement plan 1926 in graph format, it does not have to be in graph format, and the display of the procurement plan 1914 may be omitted. In the figure, the normal period shows the procurement plan 1914, and the incident period shows the modified risk procurement plan 1926. By displaying the procurement plan 1914 and the risk procurement plan 1926 together in this way, it is possible to intuitively grasp how much the procurement plan changed when an incident occurred. However, the parts procurement plan 1103 may also be limited to displaying only the risk procurement plan 1926.

[0056] This concludes the explanation of the processing flow in this embodiment. Next, an example of an implementation of the configuration of this embodiment will be described. The supply chain risk scenario creation support device 1 of this embodiment can be implemented using a computer such as a server or cloud system. Figure 15 is a hardware configuration diagram of the supply chain risk scenario creation support device 1 of this embodiment.

[0057] In Figure 15, the supply chain risk scenario creation support device 1 includes a processing unit 101, a communication device 102, a memory 103, and a sub-storage device 104, which are connected to each other via a communication path.

[0058] First, the processing unit 101 can be implemented using a processor such as a CPU, and it performs calculations according to the risk scenario creation program 105 stored in the sub-memory 104, which will be described later. The communication device 102 corresponds to the input / output unit 11 in Figure 1, connects to the network 3, and communicates with other devices such as the user terminal 2. As a result, the display screen 1100 in Figure 14 can be displayed on the user terminal 2.

[0059] Furthermore, the memory 103 and the sub-storage device 104 correspond to the storage unit 19 in Figure 1. The memory 103 stores the risk scenario creation program 105 and the information used for processing by the processing unit 101, which are stored in the sub-storage device 104. The sub-storage device 104 can be implemented as so-called storage. The sub-storage device 104 stores the risk scenario creation program 105, input information 191, and output information 192. The input information 191 and output information 192 include the various pieces of information that make them up as shown in Figure 1.

[0060] Furthermore, the secondary storage device 104 may be implemented using various storage media such as an external HDD (Hard Disk Drive), SSD (Solid State Drive), or memory card, or it may be implemented as a separate device from the supply chain risk scenario creation support device 1, such as a file server.

[0061] The risk scenario creation program 105 consists of, for each function, a risk scenario creation target selection module 106, a risk scenario creation condition creation module 107, an incident information extraction module 108, a similar group creation module 109, a mitigation method creation module 110, a risk scenario creation module 111, and a procurement forecast calculation module 112. Note that each of these modules may be implemented as an individual program or as a combination of some of them.

[0062] Here, the configuration shown in Figure 1, which performs the same function as each module, is as follows: Risk Scenario Creation Target Selection Module 106: Risk Scenario Creation Target Selection Unit 12 Risk Scenario Creation Condition Creation Module 107: Risk Scenario Creation Condition Creation Unit 13 Incident information extraction module 108: Incident information extraction unit 14 Similar Group Creation Module 109: Similar Group Creation Unit 15 Mitigation method creation module 110: Mitigation method creation unit 16 Risk Scenario Creation Module 111: Risk Scenario Creation Section 17 Procurement forecast calculation module 112: Procurement forecast calculation unit 18 Therefore, the processing unit 101, in accordance with the risk scenario creation program 105, The process will be executed by the risk scenario creation target selection unit 12, the risk scenario creation condition creation unit 13, the incident information extraction unit 14, the similar group creation unit 15, the mitigation method creation unit 16, the risk scenario creation unit 17, and the procurement forecast calculation unit 18. The risk scenario creation program 105 can be stored in the secondary memory device 104 or other storage media.

[0063] This concludes the description of this embodiment, but the present invention is not limited thereto. For example, a delivery date extension scenario that extends delivery dates other than the parts supply reduction scenario may be created as a risk scenario, and a procurement plan with extended delivery dates may be formulated. Alternatively, the supply chain risk scenario creation support device 1 may have a unit, and the display screen 1100 of Figure 14 may be displayed on the display unit. [Explanation of Symbols]

[0064] 1…Supply chain risk scenario creation support device, 11…Input / output unit, 12…Risk scenario creation target selection unit, 13…Risk scenario creation conditions, 14…Incident information extraction unit, 15…Similar group creation unit, 16…Mitigation method creation unit, 17…Risk scenario creation unit, 18…Procurement forecast calculation unit, 19…Storage unit, 191…Input information, 1911…Incident information, 1912…Scenario creation conditions, 1913…Parts supply reduction information, 1914…Procurement plan, 192…Output information, 1921…Similar group information, 1922…Mitigation method, 1923…Risk scenario creation conditions, 1924…Reference data, 1925…Risk scenario, 1926…Risk procurement plan

Claims

1. A supply chain risk scenario creation support device that creates risk scenarios to address the reduction in the supply volume of parts in the supply chain affected by the occurrence of an incident, A storage unit that stores incident information, which is target information indicating an incident; parts supply reduction information, which indicates the amount of reduction in parts supply corresponding to the occurrence of the incident; and scenario creation conditions for creating the risk scenario. An incident information extraction unit extracts incident information from the storage unit that corresponds to the aforementioned scenario creation conditions, A similarity group creation unit calculates the similarity of each incident information stored in the memory unit and groups similar incident information together. A relaxation method creation unit creates a relaxation method for the scenario creation conditions based on the incident information grouped by the similar group creation unit and the incident information extracted by the incident information extraction unit, If the incident information extraction unit does not have any incident information that matches the scenario creation conditions, the scenario creation condition creation unit creates risk scenario creation conditions that relax the scenario creation conditions based on the mitigation method created by the mitigation method creation unit, A supply chain risk scenario creation support device having a risk scenario creation unit that creates a risk scenario based on the scenario creation conditions created by the aforementioned scenario creation condition creation unit.

2. In the supply chain risk scenario creation support device according to claim 1, The aforementioned similarity group creation unit is a supply chain risk scenario creation support device that calculates the similarity of each incident information using at least one of the following: the time from the occurrence of an incident to the occurrence of a reduction in parts supply, the time and quantity of the reduction in parts supply, and the time and quantity of recovery from the reduction in parts supply.

3. In the supply chain risk scenario creation support device according to claim 1, Furthermore, a supply chain risk scenario creation support device having a procurement forecast calculation unit that calculates a risk procurement plan based on the risk scenario and the procurement plan stored in the memory unit.

4. In the supply chain risk scenario creation support device according to claim 3, Furthermore, a supply chain risk scenario creation support device having a display unit that displays the risk scenario creation conditions, the risk scenario, and the procurement plan and the parts procurement plan including the risk procurement plan.

5. In the supply chain risk scenario creation support device according to claim 1, The risk scenario creation unit is a supply chain risk scenario creation support device that creates a parts supply reduction scenario, which reduces the amount of parts supplied, as the risk scenario.

6. A supply chain risk scenario creation support method executed by a supply chain risk scenario creation support device, which creates a risk scenario to address the reduction in the supply volume of parts in the supply chain affected by the occurrence of an incident, The memory unit stores incident information, which is the target information indicating an incident; parts supply reduction information, which indicates the amount of reduction in parts supply corresponding to the occurrence of the incident; and scenario creation conditions for creating the risk scenario. The incident information extraction unit extracts incident information that matches the scenario creation conditions from the storage unit. The similarity group creation unit calculates the similarity of each incident information stored in the memory unit, and groups similar incident information together. The mitigation method creation unit creates a mitigation method for the scenario creation conditions based on the incident information grouped by the similar group creation unit and the incident information extracted by the incident information extraction unit. If the incident information extraction unit does not find any incident information that matches the scenario creation conditions, the risk scenario creation condition creation unit creates a risk scenario creation condition that relaxes the scenario creation conditions based on the mitigation method created by the mitigation method creation unit. A supply chain risk scenario creation support method, wherein a risk scenario creation unit creates a risk scenario based on scenario creation conditions created by the risk scenario creation condition creation unit.

7. In the method for supporting the creation of supply chain risk scenarios according to claim 6, A supply chain risk scenario creation support method in which the similarity group creation unit calculates the similarity of each incident information using at least one of the following: the time from the occurrence of an incident to the occurrence of a reduction in parts supply, the time and quantity of the reduction in parts supply, and the time and quantity of recovery from the reduction in parts supply.

8. In the method for supporting the creation of supply chain risk scenarios according to claim 6, The aforementioned supply chain risk scenario creation support device further includes a procurement forecast calculation unit, A supply chain risk scenario creation support method wherein the procurement forecast calculation unit calculates a risk procurement plan based on the risk scenario and the procurement plan stored in the storage unit.

9. In the method for supporting the creation of supply chain risk scenarios according to claim 8, The supply chain risk scenario creation support device further includes a display unit, A supply chain risk scenario creation support method wherein the display unit displays the risk scenario creation conditions, the risk scenario, and the procurement plan and the parts procurement plan including the risk procurement plan.

10. In the method for supporting the creation of supply chain risk scenarios according to claim 6, A supply chain risk scenario creation support method wherein the risk scenario creation unit creates a parts supply reduction scenario as the risk scenario, which reduces the amount of parts supplied.

11. A computer-based supply chain risk scenario creation support device that creates risk scenarios to address the reduction in the supply of parts affected by an incident in the supply chain. A storage unit that stores incident information, which is target information indicating an incident; parts supply reduction information, which indicates the amount of reduction in parts supply corresponding to the occurrence of the incident; and scenario creation conditions for creating the risk scenario. An incident information extraction unit extracts incident information from the storage unit that corresponds to the aforementioned scenario creation conditions, A similarity group creation unit calculates the similarity of each incident information stored in the memory unit and groups similar incident information together. A relaxation method creation unit creates a relaxation method for the scenario creation conditions based on the incident information grouped by the similar group creation unit and the incident information extracted by the incident information extraction unit, If the incident information extraction unit does not have any incident information that matches the scenario creation conditions, the risk scenario creation condition creation unit creates risk scenario creation conditions that relax the scenario creation conditions based on the mitigation method created by the mitigation method creation unit, A program that functions as a risk scenario creation unit, creating risk scenarios based on the scenario creation conditions created by the aforementioned risk scenario creation condition creation unit.

12. In the program described in claim 11, The aforementioned similarity group creation unit is a program that calculates the similarity of each incident information using at least one of the following: the time from the occurrence of the incident to the occurrence of the reduction in parts supply, the time and quantity of the reduction in parts supply, and the time and quantity of recovery from the reduction in parts supply.

13. In the program described in claim 11, Furthermore, a program that functions as a procurement forecast calculation unit that calculates a risk procurement plan based on the risk scenario and the procurement plan stored in the memory unit.

14. In the program described in claim 13, Furthermore, a program that functions as a display unit for displaying the risk scenario creation conditions, the risk scenario, and the parts procurement plan including the procurement plan and the risk procurement plan.

15. In the program described in claim 11, The risk scenario creation unit is a program that creates a parts supply reduction scenario, which reduces the amount of parts supplied, as the risk scenario.

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