PROGRAM, INFORMATION PROCESSING SYSTEM, AND INFORMATION PROCESSING APPARATUS

Abstract

To provide a program or the like capable of analyzing the influence of a specific information page on sales without individually grasping whether or not a user is using an application via the specific information page (for example, an advertisement). [Solution] Using an estimation model, the consumption price per unit of an application that contacts an information page during a specified period of time and the consumption price per unit of the application that does not contact an information page during the specified period of time are estimated.

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a program, an information processing system, an information processing device, and an information processing method. [Background technology]

[0002] Analyzing the impact of advertising on sales based on data obtained from users is very useful for formulating more effective advertising strategies.

[0003] As a conventional technique, a mechanism for analyzing the contribution of advertisements in an application such as a game to sales of the application is known (for example, Patent Document 1).

[0004] For example, the conventional technology shown in Patent Document 1 discloses an analysis of the amount of sales (Return On Advertising Spend (ROAS)) obtained for each user in an application such as a game for the cost of advertising. The ROAS is calculated from the amount charged for each user (the number of coins used) and information on whether the user installed the application via an advertisement.

[0005] In order to perform an analysis like the conventional technology, it is necessary to know the amount charged for the application for each user, as well as to know individually whether or not the user is using the application via an advertisement.

[0006] However, in recent years, due to concerns about protecting personal information, it has become difficult to determine individually whether or not users are using an application via an advertisement, making it difficult to accurately analyze the impact that advertising has on sales. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0007] [Patent Document 1] Patent Publication No. 2021-176045 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0008] The present invention has been made in consideration of the above-mentioned problems, and its object is to provide a program or the like that can analyze the impact that a specified information page has on sales, without having to individually determine whether or not a user is using an application via a specified information page (e.g., an advertisement). [Means for solving the problem]

[0009] (1) The present invention provides The number of terminal devices that have contacted a specific information page and installed an application at a reference point in time; The number of terminal devices that installed the application without touching the information page at the reference time point; A total value of the consideration consumed for the application during a predetermined period from the reference time point for the terminal device on which the application is installed; Based on the above, an estimation model is used to estimate the consumption price per unit of the application that contacts the information page during the specified period, and the consumption price per unit of the application that does not contact the information page during the specified period. The present invention relates to a program that causes a computer to function as a part of the program.

[0010] The present invention also relates to an information processing device (e.g., a terminal device, a server device) including the above-mentioned units. The present invention also relates to an information processing system including the above-mentioned units. The present invention also relates to a computer-readable information storage medium that stores a program that causes a computer to function as the above-mentioned units.

[0011] The present invention also provides a method for producing a method for manufacturing a semiconductor device comprising the steps of: The number of terminal devices that have contacted a specific information page and installed an application at a reference point in time; The number of terminal devices that installed the application without touching the information page at the reference time point; A total value of the consideration consumed for the application during a predetermined period from the reference time point for the terminal device on which the application is installed; and estimating, using an estimation model, a consumption price per unit of the application that has contacted the information page during the specified period, and a consumption price per unit of the application that has not contacted the information page during the specified period, based on the estimation model.

[0012] The "number related to terminal devices" may be the "number of terminal devices" themselves, or the "number of users" who operate the terminal devices. The "number related to terminal devices" may also be the number of service IDs (identification information) assigned by a service company that provides a given service.

[0013] The price consumed for the application may be, for example, a charged amount or points.

[0014] Moreover, the "total value of the consideration" is, for example, cumulative sales.

[0015] Furthermore, the "consumption fee per unit of application" may be the consumption fee per terminal device on which the application is installed, the consumption fee per user on which the application is installed, or the consumption fee per service ID on which the application is installed.

[0016] Moreover, a "prescribed information page" is, for example, an advertising (publicity, PR) page (information). Moreover, a "prescribed information page" is a page on which the number of online contacts (for example, the presence or absence of user actions such as clicks on an information page) can be measured in predetermined units (for example, daily), or a page or information related to the measurement (assuming the URL itself). More specifically, a "prescribed information page" is an advertising page or advertising banner, a company's HP (homepage), a banner to that HP, a banner or HP that leads to an app, etc.

[0017] According to the present invention, it is possible to analyze the influence of an information page on sales without individually determining whether or not a user is using an application via an information page (for example, an advertisement).

[0018] (2) The present invention also provides The number of terminal devices that have accessed a specific information page and logged in to the application within a specific period of time since their previous login at a reference point in time; the number of terminal devices that have logged in to the application without touching the information page at the reference time point and a predetermined period of time has elapsed since the previous login; Regarding the terminal device that has logged in to the application, the total value of the consideration consumed for said application; The present invention relates to a program that causes a computer to function as an estimation unit that uses an estimation model to estimate the consumption price per unit of the application that has contacted the information page during the specified period, and the consumption price per unit of the application that has not contacted the information page during the specified period.

[0019] The present invention also relates to an information processing device (e.g., a terminal device, a server device) including the above-mentioned units. The present invention also relates to an information processing system including the above-mentioned units. The present invention also relates to a computer-readable information storage medium that stores a program that causes a computer to function as the above-mentioned units.

[0020] The present invention also provides a method for producing a method for manufacturing a semiconductor device comprising the steps of: The number of terminal devices that have accessed a specific information page and logged in to the application within a specific period of time since their previous login at a reference point in time; the number of terminal devices that have logged in to the application without touching the information page at the reference time point and a predetermined period of time has elapsed since the previous login; A total value of the consideration consumed for the application during a predetermined period from the reference time point for the terminal device that has logged in to the application; and estimating, using an estimation model, a consumption price per unit of the application that has contacted the information page during the specified period, and a consumption price per unit of the application that has not contacted the information page during the specified period, based on the estimation model.

[0021] The "number related to terminal devices" may be the "number of terminal devices" themselves, or the "number of users" who operate the terminal devices. The "number related to terminal devices" may also be the number of service IDs (identification information) assigned by a service company that provides a given service.

[0022] The price consumed for the application may be, for example, a charged amount or points.

[0023] Moreover, the "total value of the consideration" is, for example, cumulative sales.

[0024] Furthermore, the "consumption fee per unit of an application" may be the consumption fee per terminal device that has logged in to the application a specified period of time has elapsed since the last login, or the consumption fee per user that has logged in to the application a specified period of time has elapsed since the last login, or the consumption fee per service ID that has logged in to the application a specified period of time has elapsed since the last login.

[0025] Moreover, a "prescribed information page" is, for example, an advertising (publicity, PR) page (information). Moreover, a "prescribed information page" is a page on which the number of online contacts (for example, the presence or absence of user actions such as clicks on an information page) can be measured in predetermined units (for example, daily), or a page or information related to the measurement (assuming the URL itself). More specifically, a "prescribed information page" is an advertising page or advertising banner, a company's HP (homepage), a banner to that HP, a banner or HP that leads to an app, etc.

[0026] According to the present invention, it is possible to analyze the influence of an information page on sales without individually determining whether or not a user is using an application via an information page (for example, an advertisement).

[0027] (3) In addition, the program, information processing system, information processing device, information processing method, and information storage medium according to the present invention include: The estimation unit is a number of terminal devices that have not previously installed the application and have contacted the information page and installed the application; a number related to a terminal device that has not previously installed the application and has installed the application without contacting the information page; For a terminal device that has not previously installed the application and has newly installed the application, a total value of the consideration consumed for the application during the specified period from the reference time point; Based on this, an estimation model may be used to estimate the consumption price per unit of the application that has contacted the information page and the consumption price per unit of the application that has not contacted the information page, respectively.

[0028] According to the present invention, it is possible to analyze new users. In other words, the present invention makes it possible to analyze the impact of an information page on sales without individually determining whether or not a user is a new user who uses an application via an information page (e.g., an advertisement).

[0029] (4) In addition, the program, information processing system, information processing device, information processing method, and information storage medium according to the present invention include: The estimation unit is the number of terminal devices that have previously installed the application and have touched the information page to reinstall the application; the number of terminal devices that have previously installed the application but reinstall the application without contacting the information page; For a terminal device that has previously installed the application and has reinstalled the application, the total amount of consideration consumed for the application during the specified period from the reference time point; Based on this, an estimation model may be used to estimate the consumption price per unit of the application that has contacted the information page and the consumption price per unit of the application that has not contacted the information page.

[0030] According to the present invention, it is possible to analyze returning users. In other words, the present invention makes it possible to analyze the impact of an information page on sales without individually determining whether or not a user is a returning user who uses an application via an information page (e.g., an advertisement).

[0031] (5) In addition, the program, information processing system, information processing device, information processing method, and information storage medium according to the present invention include: The estimation unit is For a terminal device for which a specific period of time has passed since the time of uninstallation or the time of the last login, the consumption cost per unit of the application that has contacted the information page and the consumption cost per unit of the application that has not contacted the information page may be estimated, respectively.

[0032] The specific period is the withdrawal period of the application.

[0033] According to the present invention, it is possible to analyze users who have returned after a specific period of time has elapsed. Cut.

[0034] (6) In addition, the program, information processing system, information processing device, information processing method, and information storage medium according to the present invention include: The estimation unit is Let t be the time change, The consumption price per unit of the application that contacted the information page is ltv i,t year, The consumption price per unit of the application that does not contact the information page is ltv 0,t year, The total value of the consideration is R t year, The number of terminal devices that have accessed the information page is x i,t year, The number of terminal devices that do not contact the information page is x 0,t year, If the number of information media is K, R t=ltv 0,t x 0,t +Σ[i=1→K]ltv i,t x i,t The estimation may be performed by the following formula.

[0035] According to the present invention, an appropriate estimation can be performed.

[0036] (7) In addition, the program, information processing system, information processing device, information processing method, and information storage medium according to the present invention include: The computer may further function as an output unit that outputs, for a plurality of reference points in time, a time-series change in the consumption price per unit of the application that contacted the information page during the specified period.

[0037] According to the present invention, the time series change in the consumption value per unit of the application that comes into contact with an information page (e.g., an advertisement) during a specified period is output for multiple reference points in time, making it easy to analyze the effectiveness of the application (e.g., advertising effectiveness).

[0038] (8) In addition, the program, information processing system, information processing device, information processing method, and information storage medium according to the present invention include: The computer may further function as an output unit that outputs, for a plurality of reference time points, a time-series change in the consumption price per unit of the application that does not contact the information page during the predetermined period.

[0039] According to the present invention, the time series change in the consumption price per unit of the application that does not contact an information page (e.g., an advertisement) during a specified period is output for multiple reference points in time, making it easy to analyze the effectiveness of the application (e.g., advertising effectiveness).

[0040] (9) In addition, the program, information processing system, information processing device, information processing method, and information storage medium according to the present invention include: The estimation unit is When there are multiple information media, the consumption price per unit of the application that has contacted the information page during the specified period and the consumption price per unit of the application that has not contacted the information page during the specified period may be estimated for each information medium.

[0041] According to the present invention, for each information medium (e.g., for each advertising medium), the consumption price per unit of the application that has contacted an information page during the specified period and the consumption price per unit of the application that has not contacted an information page during the specified period are estimated. Therefore, it is possible to analyze the effectiveness of an application (for example, advertising effectiveness) for each information medium.

[0042] (10) In addition, the program, information processing system, information processing device, information processing method, and information storage medium according to the present invention include: The computer may further function as an output unit that estimates the consumption price per unit of the application that contacted the information page during the specified period for each information medium for multiple reference points in time, and outputs the time-series changes in the consumption price for each information medium.

[0043] According to the present invention, for each information medium (e.g., for each advertising medium), the time series changes in the consumption value per unit of the application that contacted the information page during the specified period are output for multiple reference points in time, making it easy to analyze the effectiveness of the application for each information medium (e.g., advertising effectiveness). [Brief description of the drawings]

[0044] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of an information processing system according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Diagram 2] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of an information processing apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Diagram 3] FIG. 13 is a diagram for explaining the calculation of an estimated ROAS in the present embodiment. [Figure 4]6 is an example of second measurement data of the embodiment. [Diagram 5] FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an example of a time series change in consumption value in the present embodiment. [Figure 6] FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of a flowchart according to the embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0045] The present embodiment will be described below. Note that the present embodiment described below does not unduly limit the contents of the present invention described in the claims. Furthermore, not all of the configurations described in the present embodiment are necessarily essential components of the present invention.

[0046] [1] Description of information processing system 1 is a diagram showing an example of a system configuration of an information processing system according to the present embodiment. The information processing system according to the present embodiment includes an information processing device 10 and a terminal device 20.

[0047] In the information processing system of this embodiment, an information processing device 10 and a terminal device 20 are configured to be connectable to the Internet (an example of a network). In the information processing system, information related to applications is provided from the information processing device 10 to the terminal device 20 of a user. This information includes update information for programs for functioning the terminal device 20 and various data. The terminal device 20 receives information related to applications from the information processing device 10.

[0048] By installing an application, the terminal device 20 can receive the service of the application. Also, the application can be uninstalled.

[0049] The information processing device 10 is an information processing device capable of providing a given service using the terminal device 20. In other words, the information processing device 10 may be called a server device, an analysis device, or an estimation device.

[0050] The terminal device 20 is an information processing device such as a home video game machine, a personal computer (also called a PC), a smartphone, a mobile phone, a PHS, a computer, a PDA, a portable game machine, an image generating device, a commercial game device, an arcade game device, a cabinet, etc., and can be connected to the information processing device 10 via a network such as the Internet (WAN) or a LAN. It is a capable device.

[0051] The application providing server 30 is a server (information processing device, computer) that manages applications (note that "applications" are also called "apps") provided to users in this embodiment. For example, the application is a game app, but is not limited to a game app and may be various other apps (movie app, manga providing app, etc.).

[0052] The advertising medium server 41 is a first advertising medium (for example, Google (registered trademark)) and an advertising platform.

[0053] The advertising medium server 42 is a second advertising medium (eg, Facebook (registered trademark)) and an advertising platform.

[0054] For example, the application providing server 30 can post an advertisement in a first advertising medium and post an advertisement in a second advertising medium. The number of advertising media may be one, two, or three or more.

[0055] In this embodiment, it is assumed that the application providing server 30 provides applications to users on a specific OS (operating system). For example, the OS is iOS (registered trademark), but is not limited thereto and may be various OSs such as Android (registered trademark) and Windows (registered trademark).

[0056] [2] Functional configuration Next, the information processing device 10 of this embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 2. Note that this embodiment may have a configuration in which some of the components (units) in Fig. 2 are omitted.

[0057] The information processing device 10 of this embodiment includes an input unit 160 for use in input by an administrator or others, an information storage medium 180 in which predetermined information is stored, a communication unit 196 for communicating with a terminal device 20 and others, a processing unit 100 that mainly executes the estimation process, and a memory unit 170 that mainly stores various types of data used in the estimation process.

[0058] The input unit 160 is used by a system administrator or the like to input settings and other necessary settings and data.

[0059] Information storage medium 180 (computer-readable medium) stores programs, data, etc., and its functions are realized by an optical disk (CD, DVD), a magneto-optical disk (MO), a magnetic disk, a hard disk, a magnetic tape, or a memory (ROM), etc.

[0060] The communication unit 196 performs various controls for communicating with the outside (e.g., the terminal device 20, the application providing server 30, the advertising medium servers 41, 42, etc.), and its functions are configured by hardware such as various processors or communication ASICs, programs, etc.

[0061] The storage unit 170 serves as a work area for the processing unit 100, the communication unit 196, etc., and its functions are realized by a RAM (VRAM), etc. The information stored in the storage unit 170 may be managed by a database.

[0062] In addition to the main memory unit 171, the storage unit 170 of this embodiment includes a first measurement data storage unit 172, a second measurement data storage unit 173, an advertisement information storage unit 174, an estimation model storage unit 175, and an advertisement information storage unit 176. It has 5.

[0063] The first measurement data storage unit 172 stores data (first measurement data) obtained by the first measurement function. The first measurement function is a function for acquiring data that can be used to measure advertising effectiveness from a terminal device (or each ID). In this embodiment, the data is acquired exclusively for iOS (registered trademark) applications, but the invention is not limited to this. When implementing this in the case of applications for other OSs, the data corresponding to the OS may be acquired.

[0064] The second measurement data storage unit 173 stores data (second measurement data) obtained by the second measurement function. The second measurement function is a function for acquiring data related to applications. To be more specific, for example, the second measurement function is a function for acquiring data related to applications of a plurality of operating systems including not only iOS (registered trademark) applications but also Android (registered trademark). The acquired data is information such as the amount charged (amount of payment consumed) for the application for each user's terminal device and the access log of the terminal device to the application.

[0065] The advertisement information is stored in the advertisement information storage unit 174. The advertisement information includes, for example, information on the advertiser (company name, brand, product information), advertisement costs (total costs for an advertisement campaign, cost per click (CPC is an abbreviation for Cost Per Click), etc.).

[0066] The advertising information may also include a target audience (a specific group of users that the advertisement targets, such as data based on age, gender, region, interests, etc.).

[0067] The advertisement information may also include the advertisement format and type of advertisement (eg, banner advertisement, video advertisement, interstitial advertisement, etc.).

[0068] The advertisement information may also include advertisement placement information, such as the location and timing at which the advertisement is displayed within the app, and may also include a campaign period (a period during which an advertisement campaign is carried out).

[0069] The advertisement information may also include performance indicators (number of impressions (number of times an advertisement is displayed), number of clicks, click-through rate, number of conversions (such as app installations or purchases)).

[0070] The advertisement information may also include creative materials (content such as images, videos, text, etc. used in the advertisement).

[0071] The advertising information may also include an advertising budget and bidding strategy (eg, daily, weekly, monthly).

[0072] The estimated model storage unit 175 stores an equation (function) of the estimated model used in the present embodiment. The estimated model may be referred to as an estimated ROAS.

[0073] The processing unit 100 performs various processes using a main memory unit 171 in a memory unit 170 as a work area. The functions of the processing unit 100 can be realized by hardware such as various processors (CPU, DSP, etc.) and ASICs (gate arrays, etc.), or by programs.

[0074] The processing unit 100 performs various processes of this embodiment based on a program (data) stored in an information storage medium 180. Programs for making the computer function (programs for making the computer execute the processing of each part) are stored.

[0075] For example, the processing unit 100 (processor) controls the entire information processing device 10 based on a program stored in the information storage medium 180, and performs various processes such as controlling the transfer of data between the various units. Furthermore, the processing unit 100 performs processes for providing various services in response to requests from the terminal device 20.

[0076] In this embodiment, the information processing device 10 may perform part or all of the processing of the processing unit 100, or the terminal device 20 may perform part of the processing of the processing unit 100.

[0077] The processing unit 100 includes an acquisition unit 110 , an estimation unit 111 , an output unit 112 , a communication control unit 120 , and a management unit 122 .

[0078] The acquisition unit 110 acquires information such as first measurement data, second measurement data, and advertisement information. The first measurement data acquired by the acquisition unit 110 may be stored in the first measurement data storage unit 172. The second measurement data acquired by the acquisition unit 110 may be stored in the second measurement data storage unit 173. The advertisement information acquired by the acquisition unit 110 may be stored in the advertisement information storage unit 174.

[0079] The estimation unit 111 estimates (guesses, predicts, calculates) the consumption value (LTV). As shown in FIG. 3, the estimation unit 111 calculates an estimated ROAS based on the first measurement data, the second measurement data, and advertisement data (advertising information). For example, the estimation unit 111 estimates the consumption value per unit of an application via an information page (e.g., an advertisement). The estimation unit 111 may also calculate the ROAS by dividing the sales of the application via the advertisement by the advertising cost.

[0080] For example, the estimation unit 111 estimates the consumption value (LTV) per unit of an application that comes into contact with an information page (e.g., an advertisement) during a predetermined period (e.g., 30 days) and the consumption value (LTV) per unit of an application that does not come into contact with an information page (e.g., an advertisement) during a predetermined period (e.g., 30 days) using an estimation model based on the number of terminal devices (e.g., the number of terminals, the number of unique users, the number of Apple (registered trademark) IDs) that have installed an application by contacting an information page (e.g., an advertisement) during a reference time point (e.g., t day), the number of terminal devices (e.g., the number of terminals, the number of unique users, the number of Apple (registered trademark) IDs) that have installed an application without coming into contact with an information page (e.g., an advertisement) during a reference time point (e.g., t day), and the total value of the consideration consumed for the application during a predetermined period (e.g., 30 days) from the reference time point (e.g., t day) for the terminal devices that have installed the application. Note that LTV is an abbreviation for Lifetime Value, and may also be expressed as ltv.

[0081] For example, the estimation unit 111 Let t be the time change, The consumption price per unit of the application that contacts an information page (e.g., an advertisement) is expressed as ltv i,t year, The consumption price per unit of the application that does not contact an information page (e.g., an advertisement) is expressed as ltv 0,t year, The total value of the consideration is R t year, x the number of terminal devices that have come into contact with an information page (e.g., an advertisement) i,t year, x the number of terminal devices that do not touch an information page (e.g., an advertisement) 0,t year, If the number of information media (e.g., advertising media) is K, then R t =ltv 0,t x 0,t +Σ[i=1→K]ltv i,t x i,t The estimation is performed using the following formula. Details will be described later.

[0082] The output unit 112 outputs information related to the consumption value (LTV) (for example, the time-series change in the consumption value). Details will be described later.

[0083] The communication control unit 120 establishes a connection (session or connection) with an external device (for example, the terminal device 20, the application providing server 30, the advertising medium servers 41 and 42) and performs processing for communicating (transmitting and receiving) data via a network.

[0084] The management unit 122 manages various types of information, stores the information in the storage unit 170, and deletes and updates the information stored in the storage unit 170.

[0085] [3] Overview In recent years, due to updates to the operating system (e.g., iOS (registered trademark)) of the terminal device 20, personal information protection for apps has been strengthened and tracking restrictions have been put in place for each user. As a result, online advertising contact data for each user is not shared with the app, and it has become impossible to directly measure the advertising effect (also called ROAS) in the app. To solve this problem, an estimation model (also called a formula or function) called estimated ROAS has been developed, making it possible to estimate the ROAS for each advertising medium even after the tracking restrictions of iOS (registered trademark).

[0086] [4] Traditional advertising effectiveness measurement Currently, with the advancement of digital technology, the form of advertising is shifting from offline advertising to "online advertising." Online advertising is advertising that can be posted online or on the web, where data can be checked in real time and it is possible to control whether or not advertising is displayed based on behavioral history. Unlike offline advertising on television and other platforms, online advertising has the advantage that it can track user behavior, particularly for smartphones. By linking advertising exposure history linked to device identifiers such as cookies and advertising IDs with device data on which an app is installed, it is possible to link and measure information on whether or not a user was exposed to advertising before installing a smartphone app with subsequent app behavior.

[0087] Generally, the indicator used to calculate how much sales were generated for advertising costs is Return On Advertising Spend (ROAS), which is the sales generated through advertising divided by the advertising costs, and this is used to understand the effectiveness of advertising. There are various media for online advertising, such as Google (registered trademark) and Facebook (registered trademark), and there is a marketing method that calculates this ROAS to optimize the costs paid to each advertising medium.

[0088] However, in recent years, the idea of ​​protecting personal information has spread around the world, and linking without the user's consent is now being restricted. In particular, smartphones equipped with iOS provided by Apple (registered trademark) have implemented a mechanism in iOS (registered trademark) version 14.5 and later that prevents device identifiers from being shared unless the user gives their permission. As a result, the app does not share the user's behavior before installing the app, making it impossible to measure advertising effectiveness using conventional methods. This is not just a problem for smartphone games, but for all apps that run on iOS (registered trademark), and its impact is enormous.

[0089] [5] Methods for understanding sales through advertising Concerned about business losses due to the inability to completely measure advertising effectiveness, Apple (registered trademark) is providing data on the measurement function for iOS (registered trademark) apps (hereinafter referred to as the "first measurement function") while strengthening personal information protection. It is now possible to measure the number of app installations even on iOS (registered trademark) versions 14.5 and later.

[0090] However, since the ad exposure history is still not passed to the app, it cannot be associated with the app user, and the revenue from the ads that is the basis for ROAS calculation remains unknown.Since online advertising cost optimization is based on revenue, not on the number of installations, it is not possible to carry out marketing in the same way as before iOS (registered trademark) version 14.5.

[0091] Therefore, in this embodiment, an estimation model is adopted that estimates sales via advertising, which can no longer be measured on a per-user basis, using daily sales data and the number of daily installations. The estimation model may also be called an estimation formula, an estimation function, or an estimated ROAS. This method allows sales via advertising to be known in the same way as in the past, and allows for cost optimization of online advertising.

[0092] [6] Data and formula used for estimated ROAS Organize the data and formula used to estimate ROAS.

[0093] Let UU(t) be the number of unique users who installed an app on day t. Let R be the cumulative sales made by these users on the app from day t to day d. d The relationship between the two is the amount of usage per person over d days (LTV d It can be expressed as follows using the (t)) above. Note that LTV is an abbreviation for Life Time Value, which means "value of consumption." It is an index that shows how much profit a user has brought to a company in the period from when they started to when they finished trading with the company.

[0094]

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[0095]

number

[0096] It is important to note that unlike installation data, cumulative sales data d (t) is that due to tracking restrictions, it is impossible to separate organic and ad-based users, and only the aggregate value of all users can be obtained from the app measurement data. d Solving (t) is the goal of estimated ROAS.

[0097] [7] Solution [7.1] Example of solution In solving the above formula (2), we make one assumption. The assumption is that LTV d The main components that cause time changes in (t) are in-app events, and each LTV d The time fluctuation of (t) is correlated. In fact, in smartphone app games, in-game sales are heavily dependent on in-game events. In addition, LTV generated by organic and advertising media is dThe time-varying waves in (t) are not reproducible and are equivalent to random noise, and are therefore not important when estimating the systematic effects of advertising.

[0098] Using this assumption, we solve equation (2) using the following steps.

[0099] First, the time-varying coefficient dynamic linear model is used to calculate the wave of time change for the first term on the right-hand side of equation (2).

[0100] Next, the LTV of an advertising medium is expressed as multiplying the above-mentioned time-change waves by a coefficient.

[0101] Then, the sum of the two is solved using MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo).

[0102] Before explaining each step, we express formula (2) in a more generalized form. Formula (3) defines each variable as follows, with organic being i=0. The symbol corresponding to the change in time is written as t at the bottom right of each variable.

[0103]

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[0104]

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[0105]

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[0106] In addition,

number

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[0107]

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[0108]

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[0109] Here, αi , γ i Since is a constant that does not change over time, equation (11) assumes that the advertising effect does not change over time for the organic regression coefficient in the calculation interval of t. In order to accommodate advertising media that do not meet this assumption, equation (11) is expanded by multiplying it by a time-varying function to get the following equation (12).

[0110]

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[0111]

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[0112] The final equation is a combination of equations (7) and (12), which is given by equation (14) below.

[0113]

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[0114]

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number

number

[0115] [7.2] Summary The information processing device 10 of the present embodiment can estimate the consumption value by employing the above estimation formula (estimation model).

[0116] That is, the estimation unit 111 estimates the consumption price (ltv) per unique user of the application that contacted the information page during the predetermined period (d days) and the consumption price (ltv) per unique user of the application that did not contact the information page during the predetermined period (d days) using the above estimation model (estimation formula) based on (1) the number of unique users who installed the application by contacting a specific information page (e.g., an advertisement) at the reference time point (t day), (2) the number of unique users who installed the application without contacting the information page at the reference time point (t day), and (3) the total value (Rt) of the price consumed for the application during the predetermined period (d days) from the reference time point (t day) for the terminal device that installed the application. In addition, when there are multiple information media (e.g., advertising media), the consumption price (ltv) is estimated for each information medium (e.g., advertising medium).

[0117] In this embodiment, the consumption consideration may be estimated on a terminal device basis. That is, the estimation unit 111 estimates the consumption consideration (ltv) per terminal device of the application that contacted the information page during the predetermined period (d days) and the consumption consideration (ltv) per terminal device of the application that did not contact the information page during the predetermined period (d days) using the above estimation model (estimation formula) based on (1) the number of terminal devices that contacted a specific information page (e.g., an advertisement) and installed the application at the reference time point (t day), (2) the number of terminal devices that installed the application without contacting the information page during the reference time point (t day), and (3) the total value (Rt) of the consideration consumed for the application during the predetermined period (d days) from the reference time point (t day) for the terminal devices that installed the application. In addition, when there are multiple information media (e.g., advertising media), the consumption consideration (ltv) is estimated for each information medium (e.g., advertising media).

[0118] In this embodiment, the consumption fee may be estimated in units of a service ID (identification information) assigned by a service company that provides a given service. The service ID is an ID provided by the OS (for example, an Apple (registered trademark) ID).

[0119] That is, the estimation unit 111 estimates the consumption price (ltv) per service ID of an application that contacted a specific information page (e.g., an advertisement) and installed an application at a reference time point (t day), (2) the number of service IDs that installed the application without contacting the information page at a reference time point (t day), and (3) the total value (Rt) of the price consumed for the application during a specific period (d days) from the reference time point (t day) for the terminal device that installed the application, using the above estimation model (estimation formula), and estimates the consumption price (ltv) per service ID of an application that contacted the information page during the specific period (d days) and the consumption price (ltv) per service ID of an application that did not contact the information page during the specific period. Note that, when there are multiple information media (e.g., advertising media), the consumption price (ltv) is estimated for each information medium (e.g., advertising media).

[0120] In addition, when there are multiple information media (e.g., advertising media), the estimation unit 111 estimates, for each information medium (e.g., for each advertising medium), the consumption cost per unit (ltv) of an application that has come into contact with the information page during a specified period (d days) and the consumption cost per unit (ltv) of the application that does not come into contact with the information page during the specified period (d days).

[0121] [8] Estimation if the application is already installed If the application is already installed in the terminal device 20, the consumption consideration is estimated based on the login status.

[0122] That is, the estimation unit 111 estimates the consumption price (ltv) per unique user of the application who contacted the information page during the predetermined period (d days) and the consumption price (ltv) per unique user of the application who did not contact the information page during the predetermined period (d days) based on (1) the number of unique users who contacted an information page (e.g., an advertisement) at a reference time (t day) and logged in to the application after a predetermined period (second predetermined period) has elapsed since the previous login, (2) the number of unique users who did not contact the information page during the reference time (t day) and logged in to the application after a predetermined period (second predetermined period) has elapsed since the previous login, and (3) the total value (Rt) of the price consumed for the application during the predetermined period (d days) from the reference time (t day) for the terminal device that logged in to the application, using an estimation model (estimation formula). In addition, when there are multiple information media (e.g., advertising media), the consumption price (ltv) is calculated for each information medium (e.g., advertising media).

[0123] In this embodiment, the consumption consideration may be estimated on a terminal device basis. That is, the estimation unit 111 estimates the consumption consideration (ltv) per terminal device of the application that contacted the information page during the predetermined period (d days) and the consumption consideration (ltv) per terminal device of the application that did not contact the information page during the predetermined period (d days) based on (1) the number of terminal devices that contacted an information page (e.g., an advertisement) at the reference time (t day) and logged in to the application after a predetermined period (second predetermined period) has elapsed since the previous login, (2) the number of terminal devices that did not contact the information page during the reference time (t day) and logged in to the application after a predetermined period (second predetermined period) has elapsed since the previous login, and (3) the total value (Rt) of the consideration consumed for the application during the predetermined period (d days) from the reference time (t day) for the terminal devices that logged in to the application, using the above estimation model (estimation formula). In addition, when there are multiple information media (e.g., advertising media), the consumption value (ltv) is estimated for each information medium (e.g., each advertising medium).

[0124] In this embodiment, the consumption price may be estimated in units of service IDs (identification information) assigned by a service company that provides a given service.

[0125] That is, the estimation unit 111 uses the above estimation model (estimation formula) based on (1) the number of service IDs that have logged in to an application after a predetermined elapsed period (second predetermined period) from the time of the previous login by contacting an information page (e.g., an advertisement) at a reference time point (t day), (2) the number of service IDs that have logged in to an application after a predetermined elapsed period (second predetermined period) from the time of the previous login without contacting the information page at the reference time point (t day), and (3) the total value (Rt) of the consideration consumed for the application during a predetermined period (d days) from the reference time point (t day) for the terminal device that has logged in to the application, to estimate the consideration consumed per service ID of the application that has contacted the information page during the predetermined period (d days) and the consideration consumed per service ID of the application during the predetermined period (d days). The consumption consideration (ltv) per service ID of an application that does not touch a page is estimated. If there are multiple information media (e.g., advertising media), the consumption consideration (ltv) is estimated for each information medium (e.g., each advertising medium).

[0126] [9] New estimated ROAS [9.1] Estimation of consumption value for new users The estimation unit 111 may estimate, using an estimation model (estimation formula), the consumption price per unit of the application that has come into contact with an information page (e.g., the consumption price per unique user, the consumption price per terminal device, the consumption price per service ID) and the consumption price per unit of the application that has not come into contact with an information page (e.g., the consumption price per unique user, the consumption price per terminal device, the consumption price per service ID) based on (1) the number of terminal devices (e.g., the number of unique users, the number of terminal devices, the number of service IDs) when a terminal device that has not installed an application in the past comes into contact with an information page and installs an application, (2) the number of terminal devices (e.g., the number of unique users, the number of terminal devices, the number of service IDs) when a terminal device that has not installed an application in the past installs the application without coming into contact with an information page, and (3) the total value of the price consumed for the application over a specified period (d days) from a reference point (t days) for terminal devices that have not installed the application in the past and have newly installed the application.

[0127] [9.2] Specific solution examples Let Rd(t) be the cumulative sales from t to d days for the number of new unique users (NU) who installed at the base point (day t). If the number of advertising media is K and Rd(t) represents the number of new unique users (NU) and the LTV for d days after installation, the following holds:

[0128]

number

[0129] The R required in the above formula (18) d (t) is the second measurement data, and NU of the advertising medium is obtained from the first measurement data. However, the number of new unique users NU who have not been exposed to advertising (the number of new unique users NU who have not been exposed to advertising is also called the number of organic new unique users NU) cannot be calculated directly.

[0130] Therefore, as shown in the following formula (19), the number of organic new unique users NU is calculated by subtracting the number of new unique users NU (aggregated from the first measurement data) who came into contact with the advertising medium from the total number of new unique users NU on day t aggregated using the second measurement data.

[0131]

number

[0132] [9.3] Data that can be aggregated to estimate consumption value for new users The data that can be collected to estimate consumption amounts for new users is as follows:

[0133] (1) Daily sales data for each d-day period can be compiled from the second measurement data.

[0134] (2) The number of new unique users per day can be calculated from the second measurement data.

[0135] (3) The number of unique users who installed the app via advertising media each day can be calculated from the first measurement data.

[0136]

[10] Estimated Return ROAS [10.1] Estimation of consumption value for returning users The estimation unit 111 may estimate, using an estimation model (estimation formula), the consumption price per unit of an application that has come into contact with an information page (e.g., an advertisement) and the consumption price per unit of an application that has not come into contact with the information page (e.g., the consumption price per unique user, the consumption price per terminal device, the consumption price per service ID), based on (1) the number of terminal devices (e.g., the number of unique users, the number of terminal devices, the number of service IDs) when a terminal device that has installed an application in the past reinstalls the application by coming into contact with an information page (e.g., an advertisement), (2) the number of terminal devices (e.g., the number of unique users, the number of terminal devices, the number of service IDs) when a terminal device that has installed an application in the past reinstalls the application without coming into contact with the information page, and (3) the total value of the price consumed for the application over a specified period (d days) from a reference point (t day) for terminal devices that have installed the application in the past and reinstalled the application.

[0137] In addition, the estimation unit 111 may estimate the consumption price per unit of the application that has come into contact with the information page and the consumption price per unit of the application that has not come into contact with the advertisement for a terminal device for which a specific period of time (e.g., 7 days or more) has passed since the time the application was uninstalled or the last login.

[0138] [9.2] Specific solution examples At the base point (day t), the cumulative sales from day t to day d for the number of returned unique users who installed the app (CU) is R d Let (t).

[0139] If we use K as the number of advertising media and Rd(t) as the number of returning unique users CU and the LTV for d days after installation, the following holds. Note that CU7d is the number of users who have left for 7 days or more (uninstalled) This means that the account has been restored after 7 days (at the time of download or after the last login).

[0140]

number

[0141] To explain (20) above, R d (t) indicates cumulative sales over d days. Also, LTV organic (t) indicates the LTV of a returned unique user who does not come into contact with an advertisement for d days. organic7d (t) indicates the number of returning unique users on day t who have not been exposed to advertising and who have not logged in for 7 days since their last login. i (t) indicates the LTV of a returning unique user who was exposed to an ad for d days. 7di (t) indicates the number of returning unique users on day t who have been in contact with an advertisement and for whom 7 days have passed since their last login. K indicates the number of advertising media.

[0142] [10.3] Data that can be aggregated to estimate consumption value of returning users The data that can be collected to estimate the consumption value of returning users is as follows.

[0143] (1) Sales data for d days for reinstalled users who have not logged in for more than 7 days can be compiled from the second measurement data.

[0144] (2) The number of re-installations of an advertising medium can be calculated from the first measurement data.

[0145] (3) The number of unique reinstalled users who have been logged in for more than seven days since their last login can be calculated from the second measurement data.

[0146] (4) The rate of reinstalling users who have not logged in for seven days can be calculated from the second measurement data.

[0147] [10.4] Method for determining whether or not a reinstallation is required based on the second measurement data In this embodiment, the second measurement data can identify the period of time that has elapsed since the previous login, but does not directly indicate whether or not the application has been reinstalled (re-downloaded).

[0148] The second measurement data has columns called session_count and lifetime_session_count, which indicate the number of times the app is launched. When the second measurement function is reset, session_count is also reset. Therefore, the timing when session_count=1 is considered to be the timing when the app is reinstalled. This makes it unnecessary to estimate reinstallation.

[0149] FIG. 4 is an example of the second measurement data, and shows the login time (create_date) and the history of the number of times the application was launched (session_count) for id=001. As shown in FIG. 4, for the user of id=001, the value of session_count is "1" on October 20, 2023, and there is a history of the value of session_count being 2 or more before October 20, 2023 (for example, there is a history of the value of session_count being "101" on October 11, 2023, and there is a history of the value of session_count being 2 or more). Therefore, it means that the user of id=001 has reinstalled the application.

[0150] Note that the user's session_count value is "1" and the day on which the session_count value is "1" If there is no history of a session_count value of 2 or more prior to the update, this means that the installation has not been reinstalled, i.e., that the installation is a new one.

[0151] [10.5] Method to determine the details of reinstallations from the first measurement data In this embodiment, it is possible to recognize that it is a reinstallation (re-downloading) from the first measurement data. However, the details cannot be directly determined. Therefore, the details are grasped by calculating the following formulas (21) to (23).

[0152] In the following formulas (21) to (23), R d (t) is the cumulative sales for d days from the reference point (day t) of a returning user who has been logged in for 7 days since the last time. all7d (t) is the unique number of all returnees (e.g., unique users) who have logged in for 7 days since their last login. all (t) is the total number of unique returnees (e.g., the number of unique users). i (t) is the number of unique returners (e.g., unique users) who were exposed to the advertisement.

[0153]

number

number

number

[11] Output of time series changes in consumption value In this embodiment, (for example, the output unit 112) outputs the time series change in the consumption price per unit of an application that has come into contact with an advertisement over a specified period (for example, 30 days) for multiple reference points in time (for example, day t, day (t+1), etc.).

[0154] FIG. 5 is a diagram showing time series changes in the consumption price per unit of an application exposed to an advertisement during a predetermined period (e.g., 30 days) for multiple reference points (e.g., every day from October 1, 2023 to October 30, 2023). Note that the horizontal axis of FIG. 5 indicates time, and the vertical axis indicates LTV (the consumption price per unit of an application exposed to an advertisement during d days).

[0155] FIG. 5 shows the time series change in the consumption price per unit of an application of the first advertising medium and the second advertising medium. For example, graph G1 shows the time series change in the consumption price per unit of an application of the first advertising medium. Graph G2 shows the time series change in the consumption price per unit of an application of the second advertising medium.

[0156] Although not shown, the graph of time series change output in this embodiment may show time series change of the average value of the consumption price per unit of application for all the first and second advertising media.

[0157] In this embodiment, the time series change in the consumption price per unit of the application that came into contact with the advertisement is output (provided, presented, notified) to the advertiser (e.g., the administrator of the application provision server). Note that "output" includes outputting (displaying, presenting, providing) the time series change on a screen that can be viewed by the administrator (e.g., the advertiser), outputting (notifying, presenting, providing) the time series change by email to the administrator (e.g., the advertiser), outputting the content of the time series change to the administrator (e.g., the advertiser) as audio, outputting an image of the time series change to a printer, etc.

[0158] For example, when explaining the time point of day t (e.g., October 1, 2023), it shows the consumption consideration per terminal device (user, service ID) for a predetermined period (e.g., 30 days) from day t (October 1, 2023) after contacting an advertisement and installing an application. Also, when explaining the time point of the next day (t+1) (e.g., October 2, 2023), it shows the consumption consideration per terminal device (user, service ID) for 30 days from day (t+1) (October 2, 2023) after contacting an advertisement and installing an application.

[0159] In this way, the time series changes in the consumption value per unit of applications that have come into contact with advertisements over a specified period (e.g., 30 days) are displayed at multiple reference points (e.g., each day from October 1, 2023 to October 30, 2023), allowing advertisers to easily analyze the extent to which advertisements are affecting application sales based on this information.

[0160] In addition, in this embodiment, the consumption value per unit of an application that has come into contact with an advertisement during a specified period may be estimated for each advertising medium for multiple reference points in time, and the time-series change in the consumption value for each advertising medium may be output.

[0161] For example, as shown in Figure 5, the consumption amount per terminal device (user, service ID) for each of the first advertising medium and the second advertising medium is shown, making it easy to analyze to what extent each advertising medium affects application sales.

[0162] Although not shown, in this embodiment (for example, the output unit 112) may be configured to output the time-series change in the consumption price per unit of an application that does not come into contact with an advertisement during a specified period for multiple reference points in time.

[0163]

[12] Flowchart An example of the process flow of this embodiment will be described with reference to the flowchart in Fig. 6. First, the number of terminal devices that have been exposed to an advertisement and installed an application at the reference time point, the number of terminal devices that have been exposed to an advertisement and installed an application at the reference time point, and the total value of the payment for the application during a predetermined period from the reference time point for the terminal devices that have installed the application are referenced (step S1).

[0164] These data may refer to data stored in the first measurement data memory unit 172, the second measurement data memory unit 173, and the advertising information memory unit 174, or the first measurement data obtained by the first measurement function and the second measurement data obtained by the second measurement function may be obtained from a given device or system (external server, protocol, etc.).

[0165] Next, the estimation model is used to estimate the consumption price per unit of an application that has been exposed to an advertisement during a predetermined period of time, and the consumption price per unit of an application that has not been exposed to an advertisement during the predetermined period of time (step S2).

[0166] For multiple reference points, the unit of application that was exposed to advertisements during a given period The time-series change in the consumption value per unit time is output (step S3). This is where the process ends.

[0167]

[13] Application Examples In the case where there are a plurality of types of applications employed in this embodiment (for example, there are a plurality of applications such as a fighting game application and a quiz game application), the above estimation is performed for each application.

[0168] Moreover, the reference time point (t) has been described in units of days, but it may be in units of minutes or seconds.

[0169] Also, although an example in which the number of advertising media is mainly two has been described, the number of advertising media may be one, or three or more.

[0170] In this embodiment, the terminal device 20 may perform all or part of the processing of the processing unit 100 of the information processing device 10. In other words, the terminal device 20 may acquire (reference, store) all or part of the data in the storage unit 170 and estimate the consumption price using an estimation model, like the information processing device 10.

[0171]

[14] Other The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment, and various modifications are possible. For example, a term cited as a broadly defined or synonymous term in the description in the specification or drawings can be replaced with a broadly defined or synonymous term in other descriptions in the specification or drawings.

[0172] The present invention includes configurations that are substantially the same as the configurations described in the embodiments (for example, configurations with the same functions, methods and results, or configurations with the same purpose and effect). The present invention also includes configurations in which non-essential parts of the configurations described in the embodiments are replaced. The present invention also includes configurations that achieve the same effects as the configurations described in the embodiments or that can achieve the same purpose. The present invention also includes configurations in which publicly known technology is added to the configurations described in the embodiments.

[0173] Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described in detail as above, it will be easily understood by those skilled in the art that many modifications are possible without substantially departing from the novel features and effects of the present invention. Therefore, all such modifications are intended to be included within the scope of the present invention. [Explanation of symbols]

[0174] 10 Information processing device, 20, 20A, 20B, 20C Terminal device, 30 application server, 41, 42 advertising media server, 100 processing unit, 110 acquisition unit, 111 estimation unit, 112 output unit, 113 communication control unit, 114 management unit, 160 input unit, 170 memory unit, 171 main memory unit, 172 first measurement data storage unit, 173 second measurement data storage unit, 174 advertising information storage unit, 175 estimation model storage unit, 180 Information storage media, 196 Communications Department,

Claims

1. An estimation unit that estimates consumption costs using a predetermined formula when calculating an estimated ROAS based on first measurement data that can be used to measure the effectiveness of a specific information page, second measurement data related to an application, and information related to the information page; causing a computer to function as a storage unit that stores the predetermined formula; The estimation unit is Based on the first measurement data and the second measurement data, the number of terminal devices is divided into a number of terminal devices that have touched the information page and a number of terminal devices that have not touched the information page; The number of terminal devices that contacted the information page and installed the application at a reference time point; The number of terminal devices that installed the application without contacting the information page at the reference time point; A total value of the consideration consumed for the application during a predetermined period from the reference time point for the terminal device on which the application is installed; and estimating, using the specified formula, a consumption price per unit of the application that has contacted the information page during the specified period, and a consumption price per unit of the application that does not contact the information page during the specified period, based on the specified formula.

2. An estimation unit that estimates consumption costs using a predetermined formula when calculating an estimated ROAS based on first measurement data that can be used to measure the effectiveness of a specific information page, second measurement data related to an application, and information related to the information page; causing a computer to function as a storage unit that stores the predetermined formula; The estimation unit is Based on the first measurement data and the second measurement data, the number of terminal devices is divided into a number of terminal devices that have touched the information page and a number of terminal devices that have not touched the information page; The number of terminal devices that have accessed the information page and logged in to the application after a predetermined period of time has elapsed since the previous login at a reference time point; the number of terminal devices that have logged in to the application without touching the information page at the reference time point and a predetermined period of time has elapsed since the previous login; A total value of the consideration consumed for the application during a predetermined period from the reference time point for the terminal device that has logged in to the application; and estimating, using the specified formula, a consumption price per unit of the application that has contacted the information page during the specified period, and a consumption price per unit of the application that does not contact the information page during the specified period, based on the specified formula.

3. In claim 1, The estimation unit is a number of terminal devices that have not previously installed the application and have contacted the information page and installed the application; a number related to a terminal device that has not previously installed the application and has installed the application without contacting the information page; For a terminal device that has not previously installed the application and has newly installed the application, a total value of the consideration consumed for the application during the specified period from the reference time point; and estimating, using the predetermined formula, a consumption price per unit of the application that has contacted the information page and a consumption price per unit of the application that has not contacted the information page, based on the predetermined formula.

4. In claim 1, The estimation unit is the number of terminal devices that have previously installed the application and have touched the information page to reinstall the application; the number of terminal devices that have previously installed the application but reinstall the application without contacting the information page; For a terminal device that has previously installed the application and has reinstalled the application, the total amount of consideration consumed for the application during the specified period from the reference time point; and estimating, using the predetermined formula, a consumption price per unit of the application that has contacted the information page and a consumption price per unit of the application that has not contacted the information page, based on the predetermined formula.

5. In claim 4, The estimation unit is A program characterized by estimating the consumption price per unit of the application that has contacted the information page and the consumption price per unit of the application that has not contacted the information page for a terminal device for which a specific period of time has passed since the time of uninstallation or the time of the last login.

6. In claim 1 or 2, The estimation unit is Let the time change be t, The consumption price per unit of the application that contacted the information page is expressed as ltv ｉ,ｔ year, The consumption cost per unit of the application that does not contact the information page is expressed as ltv ０,ｔ year, The total value of the consideration is R ｔ year, The number of terminal devices that have contacted the information page is x ｉ，ｔ year, The number of terminal devices that do not contact the information page is x ０，ｔ year, If the number of information media is K, R ｔ =ltv ０,ｔ ・x ０，ｔ +Σ[i=1→K]Stv ｉ,ｔ ・x ｉ，ｔ A program for estimating using the formula:

7. In claim 1 or 2, A program further causing a computer to function as an output unit that outputs, for a plurality of reference points in time, a time series change in the consumption price per unit of the application that contacted the information page during the specified period.

8. In claim 1 or 2, A program further causing a computer to function as an output unit that outputs, for a plurality of reference points in time, a time series change in the consumption price per unit of the application that does not contact the information page during the specified period.

9. In claim 1 or 2, The estimation unit is A program characterized by estimating, for each information medium when there are multiple information media, the consumption price per unit of the application that has contacted the information page during the specified period and the consumption price per unit of the application that does not contact the information page during the specified period.

10. In claim 9, The program further causes the computer to function as an output unit that estimates the consumption value per unit of the application that contacted the information page during the specified period for each information medium for multiple reference points in time, and outputs the time-series changes in the consumption value for each information medium.

11. A number of terminal devices that have accessed a specific information page and installed an application at a reference point in time, The number of terminal devices that installed the application without touching the information page at the reference time point; A total value of the consideration consumed for the application during a predetermined period from the reference time point for the terminal device on which the application is installed; and causing the computer to function as an estimation unit that estimates, using a predetermined formula based on the above, a consumption price per unit of the application that has contacted the information page during the predetermined period and a consumption price per unit of the application that has not contacted the information page during the predetermined period, respectively; The estimation unit is Let the time change be t, The consumption price per unit of the application that contacted the information page is expressed as ltv ｉ,ｔ year, The consumption cost per unit of the application that does not contact the information page is expressed as ltv ０,ｔ year, The total value of the consideration is R ｔ year, The number of terminal devices that have contacted the information page is x ｉ，ｔ year, The number of terminal devices that do not contact the information page is x ０，ｔ year, If the number of information media is K, R ｔ =ltv ０,ｔ ・x ０，ｔ +Σ[i=1→K]Stv ｉ,ｔ ・x ｉ，ｔ A program for estimating using the formula:

12. A number of terminal devices that have accessed a specific information page and logged in to an application within a specific period of time since their previous login at a reference point in time; the number of terminal devices that have logged in to the application without touching the information page at the reference time point and a predetermined period of time has elapsed since the previous login; A total value of the consideration consumed for the application during a predetermined period from the reference time point for the terminal device that has logged in to the application; and causing the computer to function as an estimation unit that estimates, using a predetermined formula based on the above, a consumption price per unit of the application that has contacted the information page during the predetermined period and a consumption price per unit of the application that has not contacted the information page during the predetermined period, respectively; The estimation unit is Let the time change be t, The consumption price per unit of the application that contacted the information page is expressed as ltv ｉ,ｔ year, The consumption cost per unit of the application that does not contact the information page is expressed as ltv ０,ｔ year, The total value of the consideration is R ｔ year, The number of terminal devices that have contacted the information page is x ｉ，ｔ year, The number of terminal devices that do not contact the information page is x ０，ｔ year, If the number of information media is K, R ｔ =ltv ０,ｔ ・x ０，ｔ +Σ[i=1→K]Stv ｉ,ｔ ・x ｉ，ｔ A program for estimating using the formula:

13. An estimation unit that estimates consumption costs using a predetermined formula when calculating an estimated ROAS based on first measurement data that can be used to measure the effectiveness of a specific information page, second measurement data related to an application, and information related to the information page; A storage unit that stores the predetermined formula, The estimation unit is Based on the first measurement data and the second measurement data, the number of terminal devices is divided into a number of terminal devices that have touched the information page and a number of terminal devices that have not touched the information page; The number of terminal devices that contacted the information page and installed the application at a reference time point; The number of terminal devices that installed the application without contacting the information page at the reference time point; A total value of the consideration consumed for the application during a predetermined period from the reference time point for the terminal device on which the application is installed; and estimating, using the specified formula, a consumption price per unit of the application that has contacted the information page during the specified period, and a consumption price per unit of the application that does not contact the information page during the specified period, based on the above.

14. An estimation unit that estimates consumption costs using a predetermined formula when calculating an estimated ROAS based on first measurement data that can be used to measure the effectiveness of a specific information page, second measurement data related to an application, and information related to the information page; A storage unit that stores the predetermined formula, The estimation unit is Based on the first measurement data and the second measurement data, a number related to the terminal device is calculated. Divide into the number of people who have contacted the information page and the number of people who have not contacted the information page, The number of terminal devices that have accessed the information page and logged in to the application after a predetermined period of time has elapsed since the previous login at a reference time point; the number of terminal devices that have logged in to the application without touching the information page at the reference time point and a predetermined period of time has elapsed since the previous login; A total value of the consideration consumed for the application during a predetermined period from the reference time point for the terminal device that has logged in to the application; and estimating, using the specified formula, a consumption price per unit of the application that has contacted the information page during the specified period, and a consumption price per unit of the application that does not contact the information page during the specified period, based on the above.

15. A number of terminal devices that have accessed a specific information page and installed an application at a reference point in time, The number of terminal devices that installed the application without touching the information page at the reference time point; A total value of the consideration consumed for the application during a predetermined period from the reference time point for the terminal device on which the application is installed; and an estimation unit that estimates a consumption price per unit of the application that contacts the information page during the predetermined period and a consumption price per unit of the application that does not contact the information page during the predetermined period using a predetermined formula based on the above. The estimation unit is Let the time change be t, The consumption price per unit of the application that contacted the information page is expressed as ltv ｉ,ｔ year, The consumption cost per unit of the application that does not contact the information page is expressed as ltv ０,ｔ year, The total value of the consideration is R ｔ year, The number of terminal devices that have contacted the information page is x ｉ，ｔ year, The number of terminal devices that do not contact the information page is x ０，ｔ year, If the number of information media is K, R ｔ =ltv ０,ｔ ・x ０，ｔ +Σ[i=1→K]Stv ｉ,ｔ ・x ｉ，ｔ An information processing system characterized in that the estimation is performed using the following formula.

16. A number of terminal devices that have accessed a specific information page and logged in to an application within a specific period of time since their previous login at a reference point in time; the number of terminal devices that have logged in to the application without touching the information page at the reference time point and a predetermined period of time has elapsed since the previous login; A total value of the consideration consumed for the application during a predetermined period from the reference time point for the terminal device that has logged in to the application; and an estimation unit that estimates a consumption price per unit of the application that contacts the information page during the predetermined period and a consumption price per unit of the application that does not contact the information page during the predetermined period using a predetermined formula based on the above. The estimation unit is Let the time change be t, The consumption price per unit of the application that contacted the information page is expressed as ltv ｉ,ｔ year, The consumption cost per unit of the application that does not contact the information page is expressed as ltv ０,ｔ year, The total value of the consideration is R ｔ year, The number of terminal devices that have contacted the information page is x ｉ，ｔ year, The number of terminal devices that do not contact the information page is x ０，ｔ year, If the number of information media is K, R ｔ =ltv ０,ｔ ・x ０，ｔ +Σ[i=1→K]Stv ｉ,ｔ ・x ｉ，ｔ An information processing system characterized in that the estimation is performed using the following formula.

17. An estimation unit that estimates consumption costs using a predetermined formula when calculating an estimated ROAS based on first measurement data that can be used to measure the effectiveness of a specific information page, second measurement data related to an application, and information related to the information page; A storage unit that stores the predetermined formula, The estimation unit is Based on the first measurement data and the second measurement data, the number of terminal devices is divided into a number of terminal devices that have touched the information page and a number of terminal devices that have not touched the information page; The number of terminal devices that contacted the information page and installed the application at a reference time point; The number of terminal devices that installed the application without contacting the information page at the reference time point; A total value of the consideration consumed for the application during a predetermined period from the reference time point for the terminal device on which the application is installed; and estimating, using the specified formula, a consumption price per unit of the application that has contacted the information page during the specified period, and a consumption price per unit of the application that has not contacted the information page during the specified period, based on the specified formula.

18. An estimation unit that estimates consumption costs using a predetermined formula when calculating an estimated ROAS based on first measurement data that can be used to measure the effectiveness of a specific information page, second measurement data related to an application, and information related to the information page; A storage unit that stores the predetermined formula, The estimation unit is Based on the first measurement data and the second measurement data, the number of terminal devices is divided into a number of terminal devices that have touched the information page and a number of terminal devices that have not touched the information page; The number of terminal devices that have accessed the information page and logged in to the application after a predetermined period of time has elapsed since the previous login at a reference time point; the number of terminal devices that have logged in to the application without touching the information page at the reference time point and a predetermined period of time has elapsed since the previous login; A total value of the consideration consumed for the application during a predetermined period from the reference time point for the terminal device that has logged in to the application; and estimating, using the specified formula, a consumption price per unit of the application that has contacted the information page during the specified period, and a consumption price per unit of the application that has not contacted the information page during the specified period, based on the specified formula.

19. A number of terminal devices that have accessed a specific information page and installed an application at a reference point in time, The number of terminal devices that installed the application without touching the information page at the reference time point; A total value of the consideration consumed for the application during a predetermined period from the reference time point for the terminal device on which the application is installed; and an estimation unit that estimates a consumption price per unit of the application that contacts the information page during the predetermined period and a consumption price per unit of the application that does not contact the information page during the predetermined period using a predetermined formula based on the above. The estimation unit is Let the time change be t, The consumption price per unit of the application that contacted the information page is expressed as ltv ｉ,ｔ year, The consumption cost per unit of the application that does not contact the information page is expressed as ltv ０,ｔ year, The total value of the consideration is R ｔ year, The number of terminal devices that have contacted the information page is x ｉ，ｔ year, The number of terminal devices that do not contact the information page is x ０，ｔ year, If the number of information media is K, R ｔ =ltv ０,ｔ ・x ０，ｔ +Σ[i=1→K]Stv ｉ,ｔ ・x ｉ，ｔ An information processing device characterized in that the information processing device estimates the information by the following formula.

20. A number of terminal devices that have accessed a specific information page and logged in to an application within a specific period of time since their previous login at a reference time point, the number of terminal devices that have logged in to the application without touching the information page at the reference time point and a predetermined period of time has elapsed since the previous login; A total value of the consideration consumed for the application during a predetermined period from the reference time point for the terminal device that has logged in to the application; and an estimation unit that estimates a consumption price per unit of the application that contacts the information page during the predetermined period and a consumption price per unit of the application that does not contact the information page during the predetermined period using a predetermined formula based on the above. The estimation unit is Let the time change be t, The consumption price per unit of the application that contacted the information page is expressed as ltv ｉ,ｔ year, The consumption cost per unit of the application that does not contact the information page is expressed as ltv ０,ｔ year, The total value of the consideration is R ｔ year, The number of terminal devices that have contacted the information page is x ｉ，ｔ year, The number of terminal devices that do not contact the information page is x ０，ｔ year, If the number of information media is K, R ｔ =ltv ０,ｔ ・x ０，ｔ +Σ[i=1→K]Stv ｉ,ｔ ・x ｉ，ｔ An information processing device characterized in that the information processing device estimates the information by the following formula.

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