Disaster prevention plan drafting system and disaster prevention plan drafting method

Abstract

To provide a contingency plan which can evaluate loss due to blackout on a user, on the basis of a kind of a user and a corresponding time, and effectively evaluate countermeasure cost and economic loss of an electrical distribution business operator.SOLUTION: There is provided a disaster control plan generation system comprising: a calculation part executing calculation processing; and a storage part to which the calculation part can access. The calculation part further comprises: a plan generation part for generating a plan for countermeasures for preparing for a prescribed disaster. The plan generation part evaluates at least benefit of the countermeasures, on the basis of first information including respective predicted values of a blackout time and a blackout amount in an area where blackout occurrence is predicted when the disaster occurs, respective predicted values in a blackout time and a blackout amount when the countermeasures are taken in the area, and time which is required by a power user who receives affection by the blackout of the area, for taking an advance countermeasure, and second information related to loss caused by the disaster.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a disaster countermeasure planning system and a disaster countermeasure planning method that support advance measures for suppressing power outages when a disaster occurs. [Background technology]

[0002] In recent years, natural disasters such as floods and storms have been increasing worldwide due to climate change. Compared to other countries, Japan has a high frequency of natural disasters such as typhoons, heavy rains, and earthquakes, making disaster prevention an important issue. In particular, the damage caused by power outages due to typhoons has been increasing in recent years, and in the power sector, there is a need to reduce the frequency, scale, and duration of power outages in response to the increasing risk of natural disasters. One way to reduce damage caused by typhoons is to formulate a contingency plan in advance to minimize damage based on weather forecasts and typhoon path predictions. As a contingency plan by power transmission and distribution operators, power transmission and distribution operators can temporarily change (switch generators) the power plants that supply power to each area under their jurisdiction based on the expected damage caused by a power outage. In addition, power outages can be suppressed by substituting distributed energy resources (DERs) such as power supply vehicles, storage batteries, and electric vehicles to supply power.

[0003] For this purpose, it is important to establish a method for quantitatively grasping the impact on society of the interruption of power supply due to a power outage. As various conventional techniques related to disaster countermeasure methods that consider the impact on society of power outages during disasters, techniques disclosed in Patent Documents 1 and 2 have been proposed.

[0004] Patent Document 1 discloses a power outage evaluation device that includes: a means for calculating the number of power outages for each cause of power outages in the location conditions, power line entrance method, and power receiving method input by the input means, by referring to data stored in a natural disaster data storage means, a power line data storage means, and a power outage accident cause data storage means; a means for determining the range of influence of one power outage by referring to data stored in the power line data storage means; a means for calculating the number of power outages per consumer for each cause of power outages in the location conditions, power line entrance method, and power receiving method input from the calculated number of power outages for each cause of power outages and the determined range of influence; a means for calculating the number of power outages per consumer for each power outage time based on the number of power outages per consumer for each cause of power outages and data stored in a power outage time data storage means; and a means for calculating an average power outage time from the number of power outages per consumer for each power outage time.

[0005] Patent Document 2 discloses a power distribution system evaluation device including an input unit, a display unit, a processing unit, and a storage unit. The input unit inputs the fault section and the power outage duration. The power outage section identification unit of the processing unit identifies the power outage section from the fault section from the input unit and the power distribution system data of the storage unit. The power amount calculation unit identifies consumers in the power outage section from the power outage section identified by the power outage section identification unit and the power distribution equipment data, and calculates the amount of power supply disruption from the power consumption of each consumer in the consumer data and the power outage duration input by the input unit. The loss fee calculation unit calculates the amount of loss in the electricity fee for each consumer from the electricity fee per unit power in the consumer data and the amount of power supply disruption calculated by the power amount calculation unit, and the total value of the loss amounts is set as the loss fee. The display unit displays the loss fee calculated by the loss fee calculation unit. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0006] [Patent Document 1] JP 2010-020434 A [Patent Document 2] JP 2007-221975 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0007] As mentioned above, Patent Document 1 describes a method for estimating the amount of loss in factory production, etc., of a consumer due to a power outage by assuming a fixed amount of loss per hour due to the stoppage of the consumer's production equipment.

[0008] However, in reality, the loss amount per hour due to a power outage is not fixed, but varies depending on the type of consumer (such as a general household or a business) and the scale of their business. Even for the same consumer, the loss amount changes depending on the time of the power outage and the duration of the power outage. For example, in the case of a business that has a storage battery as a BCP (Business Continuity Plan) measure, losses can be suppressed for a certain period of time, but the loss amount per hour increases from the point when the power outage is prolonged and the remaining battery power becomes zero. In addition, if there is no advance notice of a power outage, consumers cannot take emergency measures to prepare for a power outage, so the loss amount per hour may be dramatically higher than when there is advance notice.

[0009] Furthermore, Patent Document 2 is a method for quantitatively estimating the impact of power outages based on the amount of reduction in wheeling revenue of electricity transmission and distribution companies due to the outage, but does not take into account losses other than wheeling revenue, such as the countermeasure costs of electricity transmission and distribution companies, penalties for power outages under the wheeling charge system (revenue cap system) that is planned to be introduced in Japan, and incentives for avoiding power outages.

[0010] Therefore, the prior art in Patent Documents 1 and 2 does not take into consideration the power outage losses, including the countermeasure costs related to the contingency plans of the power transmission and distribution business operators (costs for replacing generators, using power supply vehicles, and DERs) and the time during which consumers can take advance countermeasures, which changes over time. As a result, it is not possible to accurately estimate the losses of consumers and the power transmission and distribution business operators, resulting in a problem that sufficient countermeasures cannot be taken and losses increase, or conversely, excessive countermeasures may be taken and countermeasure costs increase.

[0011] The present invention aims to provide a disaster prevention planning system and method that can evaluate the total benefit of contingency plans based on the sales losses of the electricity transmission and distribution company (reduced wheeling revenue, power outage penalties, etc.), countermeasure costs (power source replacement, distributed power source operating costs, etc.), and power outage losses of consumers, for areas under the jurisdiction of the electricity transmission and distribution company, based on the type of consumers in each area and the amount of time that consumers can take advance countermeasures, and can develop contingency plans that improve the total benefit by optimizing based on the evaluation value. [Means for solving the problem]

[0012] A representative example of the means for solving the problems of the present invention is as follows: That is, a disaster countermeasure planning system includes a calculation unit that executes calculation processing and a storage unit accessible by the calculation unit, the calculation unit has a planning unit that plans countermeasures to prepare for a predetermined disaster, and the planning unit evaluates at least the benefits of the countermeasures based on predicted values ​​for the duration and amount of power outage in an area where a power outage is predicted due to the disaster, predicted values ​​for the duration and amount of power outage in a case where countermeasures are taken in the area, first information including the time required for advance countermeasures by power consumers affected by the power outage in the area, and second information regarding losses associated with the disaster. Effect of the Invention

[0013] According to one aspect of the present invention, it is possible to improve the cost-effectiveness of an electricity transmission and distribution company. Problems, configurations, and effects other than those described above will become apparent from the following description of the embodiments. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0014] [Figure 1] Screen image showing typhoon path information to electricity transmission and distribution companies [Diagram 2] Disaster prevention planning system configuration diagram [Diagram 3] Disaster Prevention Planning Department Software Configuration [Figure 4]Software configuration of the consumer loss calculation unit [Diagram 5] Flowchart showing the overall processing procedure by the Disaster Countermeasures Planning Department [Figure 6] Flowchart showing the procedure for cost-benefit evaluation when no measures are taken [Figure 7] Flowchart showing the process of cost-benefit evaluation of the initial concept plan [Figure 8] Flowchart showing the provisional conte plan processing procedure [Figure 9] Flowchart showing the cost-benefit evaluation process for the provisional Conteplan [Figure 10] Flowchart showing the processing procedure for customer loss estimation [Figure 11] Example of a data table showing the amount of renewable energy sources introduced within an area [Figure 12] Example of a data table of weather forecast values [Figure 13] Power Supply List Data Table Example [Figure 14] Example of a data table for power supply vehicle information [Figure 15] Example of a data table of storage battery information by area [Figure 16] Example of a data table for area demand forecast values [Figure 17] Example of data table of unit operating costs by power source [Figure 18] Example of a data table for unit costs of power source replacement [Figure 19] Example of data table for unit cost of power supply vehicle operation [Figure 20] Example of data table of initial Conteplan evaluation results [Figure 21] Example of a data table of Conteplan optimization results [Figure 22] Example of a data table showing estimated power outage duration and power outage amount [Diagram 23] Example of a data table showing the amount of time required for advance measures by consumer [Figure 24] Example data table of estimated unit costs for power outages by case [Diagram 25] Example of data table of customer loss calculation results [Figure 26] Example of estimated unit power outage costs in each case [Figure 27] Screen image for power transmission and distribution companies [Figure 28] Loss impact calculation example [Figure 29] Comparison of consumer losses and countermeasure costs for electricity transmission and distribution companies DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0015] Hereinafter, specific embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

[0016] In the system disclosed in this embodiment, when a typhoon is predicted by a weather forecast, an economically rational contingency plan is devised in terms of the magnitude of the expected power outage damage due to a system failure or generator tripping, which is predicted based on the weather forecast data, and the costs of countermeasures using multiple means, such as generator replacement, temporary supply by a power source vehicle, and temporary supply using DERs such as storage batteries.

[0017] Fig. 1 may be an example of a screen image of typhoon path information checked by the power transmission and distribution business operator when predicting the arrival of a typhoon in this embodiment. The power transmission and distribution business operator checks the areas where the typhoon is predicted to arrive and the power plants that may be affected within the area of ​​responsibility (in this specification, unless otherwise specified, "area" may mean the area under the jurisdiction of the power transmission and distribution business operator) that is the area under the jurisdiction of the power transmission and distribution business operator, and can create a contingency plan based on this information. Power may be supplied from each power plant to each area via the power supply line in Fig. 1.

[0018] (1) Configuration of Disaster Prevention Planning System 2 is a diagram showing a configuration example of a disaster countermeasure planning system 10 according to the present embodiment. The disaster countermeasure planning system 10 may include a storage unit 26 accessible by a later-described calculation unit 21 configured with an appropriate non-volatile storage element such as a hard disk drive. The system may further include a memory 22 configured with a volatile storage element such as a RAM, and a calculation unit 21 that reads out a program stored in the storage unit 26 into the memory 22 and executes it to perform overall control of the system itself, as well as various judgments, calculation processing such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit), and control processing. The system may further include an input unit 23 such as a keyboard or mouse that accepts user input, an output unit 24 such as a display that outputs processing results, and a communication unit 25 such as a network interface that is connected to the communication network 11 and is responsible for communication processing with other devices such as an external user terminal 12.

[0019] Each functional part of the storage unit 26 is implemented by the calculation unit 21 executing a program, and includes a disaster countermeasure plan making unit 30, which is a plan making unit consisting of a conteplan assumption unit 31, a power outage time and power outage amount estimation unit 32, a benefit improvement unit 33, and a cost-benefit evaluation unit 34. The plan making unit makes plans for measures to prepare for a specific disaster. The disaster countermeasure plan making unit 30 may be a functional unit that realizes a disaster countermeasure plan making function described later. Note that, regarding the name of the conteplan assumption unit, some names are conteplans, which are abbreviated versions of contingency plans. In the following, some names are conteplans, which are abbreviated versions of contingency plans. Therefore, even if some names are conteplans, which are replaced with contingency plans, the meaning is the same.

[0020] The cost-benefit assessment unit 34 may include a customer loss calculation unit 35, a total loss calculation unit 36, a total cost calculation unit 37, and a total benefit assessment unit 38.

[0021] The memory unit 26 can also store information such as a power source list 100, area demand forecast values ​​101, operating costs by power source 102, required advance measures time by consumer 104, and estimated power outage costs by case 105 as a database.

[0022] This disaster countermeasure planning system 10 may be a local server installed at a specific location, or may be provided as a cloud server in the form of SaaS (Software as a Service), or the like.

[0023] A user terminal 12 of an electricity transmission and distribution business operator and the like are connected to the communication network 11. The user terminal 12 can receive input of generator information, power supply vehicle information, and the like in a target area from the electricity transmission and distribution business operator.

[0024] (2) Disaster prevention planning function Next, a description will be given of a disaster countermeasures planning function of the disaster countermeasures planning system 10. This disaster countermeasures planning function may include an evaluation unit that evaluates at least the benefit of the measures based on predicted values ​​of the power outage duration and amount in each area including an area where a power outage is predicted due to a disaster when a disaster occurs, predicted values ​​of the power outage duration and amount when a hypothetical contingency plan is implemented, i.e., predicted values ​​of the power outage duration and amount when a countermeasure is implemented in the area, information that may include the type of consumers in each area and the time that the consumers can take advance countermeasures, i.e., first information including the time that the power consumers affected by the power outage in the area require to take advance countermeasures, and information that may include information on the sales loss of the power transmission and distribution company, the cost of the countermeasures, and the power outage loss of the consumers, i.e., second information on the losses associated with the disaster.

[0025] By configuring in this way, a disaster countermeasure plan can be created based on information about consumers in addition to information about losses due to the disaster.

[0026] Furthermore, the evaluation unit may evaluate the total benefit of the assumed contingency plans and may have a function of identifying a contingency plan that improves the benefit based on the evaluation result. Note that the benefit means the benefit including the disadvantage.

[0027] By configuring in this way, it is possible to create an improved disaster countermeasure plan by taking into account information about customers in addition to information about losses due to the disaster.

[0028] FIG. 3 is a software configuration diagram of the disaster countermeasures planning system 10 relating to the disaster countermeasures planning function. In order to realize such a disaster countermeasures planning function, the storage unit 26 of the disaster countermeasures planning system 10 may hold a disaster countermeasures planning unit 30 including an equipment failure prediction unit 39, a renewable energy power generation prediction unit 43, a Conteplan assumption unit 31, a power outage time and power outage amount estimation unit 32, a cost-benefit evaluation unit 34, and a benefit improvement unit 33 as a program. In FIG. 3, the solid lines may indicate the flow of processing between the components, and the dashed lines may indicate the flow of data as a guide. In the drawings including FIG. 3, not all necessary lines are shown between the components, and some are omitted. The flow of processing and the flow of data between the components are performed appropriately even if the lines are not shown in the diagram.

[0029] Each of these functions will be explained in detail below.

[0030] The contingency plan assumption unit 31 is a processing unit that assumes a contingency plan, and may include a power source allocation assumption unit 40, a power source vehicle dispatch area assumption unit 41, and a storage battery operation area assumption unit 42.

[0031] The power source allocation assumption unit 40 may be a processing unit that uses the power source list 100 to assume the allocation of areas to which each power plant supplies power.

[0032] The power supply vehicle dispatch area assumption unit 41 may be a processing unit that uses the power supply vehicle information 106 to assume the allocation of areas to which each power supply vehicle will supply power.

[0033] The storage battery operation area assumption unit 42 may be a processing unit that uses the area-specific storage battery information 107 to assume an allocation of areas to which each storage battery supplies power.

[0034] The renewable energy power generation amount prediction unit 43 can perform processing for predicting the renewable energy power generation amount for each area using the in-area renewable energy power source introduction amount 108 and weather forecast value 109.

[0035] The equipment failure prediction unit 39 can use the power supply list 100 and the weather forecast value 109 to perform processing for predicting failures in power plants, power supply lines, and the like in each area.

[0036] The power outage duration / amount estimation unit 32 is a processing unit that performs processing to estimate the power outage duration / amount of power outage in each area using the assumed contingency plan, the area demand forecast value 101, the renewable energy power generation forecast value which is the value of the renewable energy power generation amount of each area predicted by the renewable energy power generation forecast unit 43, and the equipment failure prediction result which is the result of prediction by the equipment failure prediction unit 39, and the processing result can be stored in the power outage duration / amount estimation result 111 shown in Figure 4.

[0037] The cost-benefit assessment unit 34 may include a wheeling revenue reduction calculation unit 44, a power outage penalty calculation unit 45, a customer loss calculation unit 35, a total loss calculation unit 36, a power source operating cost calculation unit 46, a power source replacement / system reconfiguration cost calculation unit 47, a power source vehicle operating cost calculation unit 48, a total cost calculation unit 37, and a total benefit assessment unit 38.

[0038] The wheeling revenue reduction amount calculation unit 44 can perform a process of calculating the wheeling revenue reduction amount based on the estimated result of the power outage amount in each area.

[0039] The power outage penalty calculation unit 45 can perform a process of calculating a loss taking into account the power outage penalty based on the estimated power outage amount in each area.

[0040] The consumer loss calculation unit 35 may be a processing unit that performs a process of calculating the damage to consumers based on the estimation result of the amount of power outage in each area.

[0041] The power source operating cost calculation unit 46 may be a processing unit that calculates the operating cost of each power source by using the power source allocation of the assumed contingency plan, the power source list 100, the area demand forecast value 101, and the power source-specific operating cost unit price 102. Note that in FIG. 3, the lines indicating data transmission from the power source list 100 and the area demand forecast value 101 are omitted from the power source operating cost calculation unit 46.

[0042] The power source replacement / system reconfiguration cost calculation unit 47 may be a processing unit that calculates the cost required for power source replacement using the power source allocation and power source replacement cost unit price 110 of the assumed contingency plan.

[0043] The power supply vehicle operation cost calculation unit 48 may be a processing unit that calculates the costs involved in dispatching and operating a power supply vehicle using the power supply vehicle dispatch allocation and power supply vehicle operation cost 114 of the assumed contingency plan.

[0044] The total loss calculation unit 36 ​​may be a processing unit that calculates the total loss based on the wheeling revenue reduction amount calculation result, the power outage penalty calculation result, and the customer loss calculation result, which are the results of processing by the wheeling revenue reduction amount calculation unit 44 described above.

[0045] The total cost calculation unit 37 may be a processing unit that calculates the total cost based on a power source operating cost calculation result which is the result of the power source operating cost calculated by the power source operating cost calculation unit 46, a power source replacement cost calculation result which is the result of the power source replacement cost calculated by the power source replacement / system reconfiguration cost calculation unit 47, and a power source vehicle operating cost calculation result which is the result of the power source vehicle operating cost calculated by the power source vehicle operating cost calculation unit 48.

[0046] The total benefit evaluation unit 38 is a processing unit that evaluates the total benefit based on the total loss calculated by the total loss calculation unit 36 ​​and the total cost calculated by the total cost calculation unit 37. When evaluating an initial contingency plan, the evaluation result may be stored in the initial contingency plan evaluation result 116. That is, the second information on losses due to the disaster described above may be information including the sales loss of the electricity transmission and distribution company, the cost required for the countermeasures, and the power outage loss of the electricity consumers.

[0047] By configuring it in this way, it is possible to create a disaster prevention plan that takes into account not only the sales losses and costs required for countermeasures for the electricity transmission and distribution company, but also the power outage losses for electricity consumers.

[0048] In addition, the sales loss of the electricity transmission and distribution company may include a reduction in wheeling revenue and / or a power outage penalty. The costs required for the above-mentioned measures may include costs required for operating the power source and / or costs for operating the distributed power source.

[0049] By configuring in this manner, it is possible to formulate a disaster prevention plan that takes into better consideration losses associated with power outages.

[0050] The benefit improvement unit 33 is a processing unit that performs processing to search for a new contingency plan that improves the total benefit based on the evaluation result of the total benefit evaluated by the total benefit evaluation unit 38, and the processing result may be stored in the contingency plan optimization result 112.

[0051] 4 is a software configuration diagram of the consumer loss calculation unit 35. For calculating consumer losses, a consumer disaster countermeasure preparation time calculation unit 50, a pre-measures feasibility determination unit 51, a power outage cost calculation unit 52, and a total power outage cost calculation unit 53 for all consumers may be held.

[0052] The customer disaster countermeasure preparation time calculation unit 50 can calculate the customer disaster countermeasure preparation time by using the power outage duration / power outage amount estimation result 111.

[0053] The advance countermeasures feasibility determination unit 51 can use the disaster countermeasures preparation time of the customer calculated in the customer disaster countermeasures preparation time calculation unit 50 and the customer-specific necessary advance countermeasures time 104 to determine whether advance countermeasures are possible for each customer.

[0054] The power outage cost calculation unit 52 calculates losses due to a power outage for the consumer, using the result determined by the preventive measures feasibility determination unit 51 as to whether preventive measures can be taken by the consumer and data on the case-specific power outage cost estimated unit price 105 .

[0055] The total power outage cost calculation unit for all consumers 53 may add up the losses due to power outages for each consumer calculated by the power outage cost calculation unit 52 to calculate the total power outage cost for all consumers, and the processing result may be stored in consumer loss calculation result 113.

[0056] (3) Various processes related to disaster prevention planning functions Next, in relation to the disaster countermeasure planning function according to this embodiment, a description will be given of the contents of various processes executed by the disaster countermeasure planning system 10. Note that, in the following, the entities that process the various processes will be described as programs or modules, but it goes without saying that in practice the processing may be executed by a computing unit based on the programs or modules.

[0057] Section 3-1 "Various Processing for Disaster Countermeasures Plan Formulation" shows the overall processing procedure for disaster countermeasures plan formulation. Section 3-2 "Various Processing for Customer Loss Calculation" shows the detailed processing procedure for customer loss calculation.

[0058] (3-1) Various processes for disaster prevention planning 5 is a flowchart showing the overall processing procedure of the disaster countermeasures planning unit of the disaster countermeasures planning system 10. The disaster countermeasures planning unit 30 of the disaster countermeasures planning system 10 may sequentially perform a cost-benefit assessment when no countermeasures are taken (step S100), a provisional contingency plan assumption (step S101), an estimate of the power outage duration and amount for each area (step S102), a cost-benefit assessment of the provisional contingency plan (step S103), a calculation of the degree of improvement (step S104), a check of the predetermined termination conditions (step S105), and an adoption of the contingency plan with the highest degree of improvement as the best plan (step S106).

[0059] FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing the procedure of the cost-benefit assessment when no measures are taken (step S100).

[0060] When the cost-benefit assessment process for when no measures are taken is started, first, the renewable energy power generation prediction unit 43 can perform a process of predicting the amount of solar power generation by area using the amount of renewable energy power introduced in the area 108 and the weather forecast value 109 (step S200).

[0061] The area renewable energy power source introduction amount 108 may be set in a format shown in FIG. 11, for example, with areas displayed as "areas" and "PV introduction amount" which is the introduction amount of photovoltaic power generation for each area. The weather forecast value 109 is stored in a format shown in FIG. 12, for example, with weather forecast values ​​such as average temperature, average precipitation, average solar radiation, wind speed, and weather at each time for each area. In the weather forecast value 109 in FIG. 12, the "forecast value" corresponding to the "timestamp" has the timing of the prediction arranged in chronological order. In the "forecast value" column corresponding to the weather elements such as "average temperature" listed in the "item" column, the forecast value of each weather element is arranged corresponding to the timing of the above-mentioned prediction. Note that some "weather" elements, such as "rain", do not appear to be numerical values, but they may be treated as numerical values ​​in the process, and are therefore called forecast values. The forecast of the amount of photovoltaic power generation by area can be calculated by, for example, multiplying the solar radiation forecast value and the amount of photovoltaic power generation introduction in the area with a predetermined coefficient weighting to calculate the forecast value of the amount of renewable energy power generation for each time period. Here, a time period is a range of time between certain times, and the predicted renewable energy power generation amount is calculated as the total amount of power generation during the time period.

[0062] Next, the equipment failure prediction unit 39 can perform processing for predicting failures in power plants, power supply lines, etc. in each area using the power supply list 100 and the weather forecast value 109 (step S201).

[0063] The power supply list 100 may store, for example, in a format shown in FIG. 13, a "power plant ID" indicating a code for identifying a power plant, an "area" indicating the area where the power plant is located for each power plant, a "normal supply area" indicating the area where the power plant supplies power in normal times when no disasters or the like occur, a "type" indicating the energy source used for power generation, a "maximum output" indicating the maximum output of the power plant, and a "vulnerability to disaster" (which may be the vulnerability of the power plant in a disaster). The equipment failure prediction may calculate the failure probability of each piece of equipment for each hour based on the area and vulnerability to disaster of each power plant in the power supply list 100, and the wind speed for each time period of each area in the weather forecast value 109, for example, using the following formula (1). If the failure probability is equal to or higher than a threshold, it is determined that the equipment is "failed", and if it is equal to or lower than a threshold, it is determined that the equipment is "not broken". In addition to the weather elements shown in FIG. 12, various elements such as precipitation and snowfall can be adopted as items in the weather forecast value 109. The symbol t may be used within the range of this formula.

[0064] The power supply list 100 shown in Fig. 13 includes items such as a power plant ID, but these are given as examples in this figure. The various data tables given in the explanation of the present invention, including the power supply list 100, are not limited to the items given as examples, and may include various other items as necessary.

[0065]

number

[0066] Next, the contingency plan assumption unit 31 can assume an initial contingency plan by assuming the allocation of each asset for each area in the power source allocation assumption unit 40, the power source vehicle dispatch area assumption unit 41, and the battery operation area assumption unit 42 (step S202).

[0067] In the assumption of the initial contingency plan, first, the power source allocation assumption unit 40 assumes the allocation of the initial area indicating the area to which each power plant will initially supply power. Specifically, the normal supply destination area in the power source list 100 may be assigned as the supply destination of each power plant. Next, the power supply vehicle dispatch area assumption unit 41 assumes the allocation of the initial area to which each power supply vehicle will initially supply power based on the power supply vehicle information 106. FIG. 14 is an example of the power supply vehicle information 106, which stores information such as a "power supply vehicle ID" indicating a code that identifies a power supply vehicle, an "initial dispatch area" indicating the area to which each power supply vehicle will initially be dispatched, a "maximum output" indicating the maximum output of the power supply vehicle, and a "supplyable capacity" which is the capacity of power that the power supply vehicle can supply. The assumption of the initial power supply vehicle dispatch area may be determined, for example, by referring to the information on the initial dispatch area in the power supply vehicle information 106. Next, the storage battery operation area assumption unit 42 assumes the operation / non-operation of each storage battery based on the area-specific storage battery information 107. 15 is an example of area-specific battery information 107, which stores information such as a "battery ID" indicating a code that identifies the battery, the "area" in which each battery is located, the "maximum output" that is the maximum output of the battery, and the "capacity" that is the capacity of the battery. An initial assumption of whether batteries are operational or not may be made, for example, by assuming that all batteries listed in area-specific battery information 107 are operational. Through the above processing, the power plants, power supply vehicles, and batteries to be assigned to each area can be assumed as a contingency plan.

[0068] Next, the power outage duration / amount estimation unit 32 can perform a process of estimating the presence / absence and amount of power outage in each area for each future time period when the set power supply plan is carried out, using the assumed contingency plan, the area demand forecast value 101, the renewable energy power generation forecast value, and the equipment failure prediction result (step S203).

[0069] Specifically, the amount of power supply in each area is calculated based on the contingency plan assumed for each area, the predicted amount of renewable energy power generation, and the results of equipment failure predictions, and by comparing this with the area demand forecast, it is possible to estimate whether there will be a power outage and the amount of the outage for each time period.

[0070] For example, the possibility of operating the assigned power plant is judged based on the information of the power plant assigned to the area in the assumed contingency plan and the equipment failure prediction results, and if it is possible to operate, the "maximum output of the power source list 100 in FIG. 13 × time" can be calculated as the amount of power that the power plant can supply to the area during that time period. For example, if a maximum power of 27 (GW) is supplied for one hour, the amount of power supply during that time period will be 27 (GWh).

[0071] Also, the information on the power supply vehicle assigned in the assumed contingency plan and "maximum output of power supply vehicle information 106 in FIG. 14 × time" can be calculated as the amount of power that the power supply vehicle can supply during the relevant time period. Whether or not power can be supplied may be determined based on how many hours have passed since the power supply start time during the time period in which the power supply is set. For example, if the time elapsed since the power supply start time is T, the total power supply amount up to the relevant time period is calculated by "maximum output of the power supply vehicle × T", and this value is compared with the available capacity in the power supply vehicle information 106. If "total power supply amount ≧ available capacity" up to the relevant time period, it is determined that power cannot be supplied, and if "total power supply amount < available capacity", it is determined that power can be supplied. The symbol T is used within the scope of this formula.

[0072] In addition, the information of the storage battery assigned in the assumed contingency plan and "maximum output of storage battery information by area 107 in FIG. 15 × time" are calculated as the amount of power that the storage battery can supply in the relevant time period. Whether or not power can be supplied may be determined based on how many hours have passed since the power supply start time for the time period in which the power supply is set. For example, if the time elapsed from the power supply start time is T, the total power supply amount up to the relevant time period is calculated by "maximum output of the storage battery × T", and this value is compared with the capacity in the storage battery information by area 107. If "total power supply amount up to the relevant time period ≧ capacity", it is determined that power cannot be supplied, and if "total power supply amount up to the relevant time period < capacity", it is determined that power can be supplied. The symbol T is used within the scope of this formula.

[0073] The amount of power supply in each time zone of the area can be calculated by adding up the total value of the power supply amount of the generator, the power source vehicle, and the storage battery in each time zone calculated in this way and the predicted value of the renewable energy power generation in each time zone. FIG. 16 is an example of the area demand forecast value 101, and the demand forecast value and the total demand amount for each consumer type (general household, business (high voltage), business (low voltage)) may be stored for each time zone of each area. The amount of power supply in each time zone of the area is compared with the total demand amount for the area in the area demand forecast value 101, and it is determined that there is no power outage if the "power supply amount ≧ total demand amount", and that there is a power outage if the "power supply amount < total demand amount". In addition, if there is a power outage, the total demand amount can be estimated as the amount of power outage in the time zone. In addition, the amount of power outage for each consumer type can be estimated by referring to the demand forecast value for each consumer type (general household, business (high voltage), business (low voltage)) in the area demand forecast value 101. The estimated results of the presence or absence of a power outage and the amount of power outage in each area estimated in this way may be stored in the power outage duration and amount of power outage estimation result 111 in the format shown in FIG. 22.

[0074] Next, the cost-benefit evaluation unit 34 can evaluate the costs and benefits that will occur based on the assumed initial contingency plan and the power outage duration / amount estimation result 111 (step S204).

[0075] FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing the details of the processing procedure for cost-benefit evaluation of the initial content plan (step S204).

[0076] When the cost-benefit evaluation of the initial ContePlan is started, first, the wheeling revenue reduction calculation unit 44 can perform a process of calculating the wheeling revenue reduction amount based on the estimated results of the power outage duration and power outage amount for each area (step S300). Specifically, first, the wheeling charge unit price (yen / kWh) for each consumer type (general household, business (high voltage), business (low voltage)) may be set. Next, as shown in formula (2), the wheeling revenue reduction amount for each consumer type can be calculated by multiplying the power outage duration and power outage amount estimation result 111 by the power outage amount for each consumer type. Note that the symbol t is used within the scope of this formula.

[0077]

number

[0078] Here, incomeLoss_trans a is the reduction in wheeling revenue in area a, and PLoss a,c,t is the total power outage amount (MWh) for customer type c in area a during time period t, and unitPrice c is the average wheeling charge (yen / kWh) for consumer type c.

[0079] For example, the reduction in wheeling revenue can be calculated using the following formula: Note that the symbol t is used in this formula.

[0080]

number

[0081]

number

[0082]

number

[0083] The reduction in wheeling revenue for all customers can be calculated by adding up the reduction in wheeling revenue for each customer type.

[0084] Next, the power outage penalty calculation unit 45 can perform a process of calculating losses taking into account the power outage penalty based on the estimated power outage amount for each area (step S301). Specifically, first, values ​​for the penalty unit price (yen / kWh) and the allowable power outage amount (MWh) are set. These values ​​may be set to any value equal to or greater than 0. Next, as shown in formula (6), the power outage penalty can be calculated by multiplying the deviation of the total power outage amount for the entire target time period from the allowable power outage amount by the penalty unit price.

[0085]

number

[0086] Here, penalty a is the power outage penalty for area a, Loss_allowable is the allowable power outage amount (MWh) under the revenue cap, and unitPenalty is the penalty unit price (yen / MWh).

[0087] Next, the consumer loss calculation unit 35 can perform a process of calculating the damage to consumers based on the estimation result of the amount of power outage in each area (step S302). Details of the consumer loss calculation process will be described later in Section 3-2 "Various processes for consumer loss calculation."

[0088] Next, the power source operating cost calculation unit 46 can calculate the operating cost of each power source using the power source allocation of the contingency plan assumed by the power source allocation assumption unit 40, the power source list 100, and the area demand forecast value 101 (step S303). Specifically, first, the operating plants allocated to the area and determined in step S201 can be extracted. When one generator is allocated to an area, the total demand amount of the area demand forecast value for that area can be taken as the amount of power generated by the power plant in each time period. When multiple generators are allocated to an area, the power source list 100 can be referred to and the amount of power generated by each power plant can be calculated by apportioning the total demand amount in proportion to the maximum output of the assigned power plant. Next, the power source list 100 is referred to and the coefficient a of the cost function of the assigned power plant is calculated. g , b g , c g , respectively. The cost function is a function that calculates the cost of power generation according to the amount of power generated by the generator and the characteristics of the generator. The coefficient of the generator cost function (a g ,b g ,c g ) the cost of operation during each time period can be calculated using the following formula:

[0089]

number

[0090] Where cost_gene a is the operating cost of power source a (yen), and P a is the amount of power generated by generator a.

[0091] Next, the power supply vehicle operation cost calculation unit 48 uses the power supply vehicle dispatch area allocation of the contingency plan assumed by the power supply vehicle dispatch area assumption unit 41 and the power supply vehicle operation cost 114 to calculate the costs involved in dispatching and operating a power supply vehicle (step S304). Specifically, first, the power supply vehicles allocated to the area may be extracted. Then, by referring to the power supply vehicle operation cost 114 in FIG. 19, the coefficient a of the cost function of the allocated power supply vehicle may be calculated. Veh , b Veh , c Veh , respectively. Then, the coefficients of the cost function (a Veh ,b Veh ,c Veh ) the cost of operation during each time period can be calculated using the following formula:

[0092]

number

[0093] where cost_p_vehicle v is the cost of the power vehicle v, and P Veh,v is the amount of power generated by power supply vehicle v.

[0094] Next, the total loss calculation unit 36 ​​can calculate the total loss based on the wheeling income reduction calculation result, the power outage penalty calculation result calculated by the power outage penalty calculation unit 45, and the customer loss calculation result 113 using the following formula.

[0095]

number

[0096] Here, TotalLoss is the total loss, and incomeLoss_trans a is the reduction in wheeling revenue in area a, and penalty a is the power outage penalty for area a, and consumerLoss a is the customer loss in area a, and w 1 and w 2 may be an arbitrarily set weighting coefficient.

[0097] The total cost calculation unit 37 can calculate the total cost based on the power source operating cost calculation result and the power supply vehicle operating cost calculation result using the following formula.

[0098]

number

[0099] Here, TotalCost is the total cost, and cost_gene g is the operating cost of power source a (in yen), and cost_reconst g is the power source replacement cost (yen) of power source a. g is the operating cost incurred when allocating a power plant to an area different from normal, but can be set to 0 for the initial plan.

[0100] Then, the total benefit evaluation unit 38 can calculate the overall evaluation value, that is, the overall evaluation value of the initial continuity plan, based on the calculated total loss and total cost described above, using the following formula (step S305).

[0101]

number

[0102] Here, TotalBenefit is the total benefit.

[0103] Then, the above result may be stored in the initial Conteplan evaluation result 116 (step S305), and the process may end.

[0104] FIG. 20 is an example of an initial contingency plan evaluation result 116, which may store the "supply source power plant ID" representing the supply source power plant, which is the contingency plan for each area, the "allocated power supply vehicle ID" representing the allocated power supply vehicle, the "allocated battery ID" representing information on the allocated battery, and the calculation results of each value in the cost-benefit evaluation.

[0105] After completing the cost-benefit evaluation process of the initial Conteplan (step S204), the cost-benefit evaluation unit 34 may end the process of the cost-benefit evaluation when no measures are taken.

[0106] When the process of the no-countermeasures cost-benefit assessment (step S100) is completed, the disaster countermeasures planning system 10 may execute a process of a provisional contingency plan assumption (step S101).

[0107] 8 is a flowchart showing the processing procedure for assuming a provisional contingency plan in S101. The contingency plan assumption unit 31 can assume a provisional contingency plan by assuming the allocation of each asset for each area in the power source allocation assumption unit 40, the power source vehicle dispatch area assumption unit 41, and the storage battery operation area assumption unit 42.

[0108] The provisional contingency plan may be assumed by first assuming the allocation of areas to which each power plant supplies power in the power source allocation assumption unit 40 (step S400). Specifically, a single or multiple supply destination areas different from the normal supply destination areas in the power source list 100 can be randomly assigned as the supply destinations of each power plant. Here, "randomly assigned" means that a user such as a power transmission company assigns as appropriate. Next, the power supply vehicle dispatch area assumption unit 41 assumes the allocation of areas to which each power supply vehicle supplies power based on the power supply vehicle information 106 (step S401). The assumption of the power supply vehicle dispatch area may be, for example, a single or multiple supply destination areas different from the initial dispatch area in the power supply vehicle information 106, randomly assigned as the supply destinations of each power supply vehicle. Here, "randomly assigned" means that a user such as a power transmission company assigns as appropriate. Next, the storage battery operation area assumption unit 42 assumes the operation / non-operation of each storage battery based on the area-specific storage battery information 107 (step S402). The assumption of whether a storage battery is in operation or not can be, for example, set randomly to be in operation or not for each storage battery in the area-specific storage battery information 107.

[0109] Through the above processing, the power plants, power supply vehicles, and storage batteries to be allocated to each area can be assumed as a provisional contingency plan, and the processing for assuming the provisional contingency plan can then be terminated.

[0110] Next, the power outage duration / amount estimation unit 32 can perform a process of estimating the presence / absence of power outage and the amount of power outage in each area for each future time period when the set power supply plan is carried out, using the assumed contingency plan, the area demand forecast value 101, the renewable energy power generation forecast value, and the equipment failure prediction result (step S102).

[0111] Based on specific contingency plans assumed for each area, predicted renewable energy power generation, and equipment failure prediction results, the amount of power supply in that area is calculated and compared with the area demand forecast, making it possible to estimate whether or not there will be a power outage and the amount of the outage for each time period.

[0112] For example, based on information about the power plants assigned to an area in a hypothetical contingency plan and the results of equipment failure predictions, it is determined whether the assigned power plants can be operated, and if they can be operated, the amount of electricity that the power plants can supply to the area during that time period can be calculated as "the maximum output x time in the power source list 100 in Figure 13."

[0113] Also, the information on the power supply vehicle assigned in the assumed contingency plan and "maximum output of power supply vehicle information 106 in FIG. 14 × time" can be calculated as the amount of power that the power supply vehicle can supply during the relevant time period. In this case, the availability of power supply may be determined based on how many hours have passed since the power supply start time during the time period in which the power supply is set. For example, if the time elapsed since the power supply start time is T, the total power supply amount up to the relevant time period is calculated by "maximum output of the power supply vehicle × T", and this value is compared with the available capacity in the power supply vehicle information 106. If "total power supply amount up to the relevant time period ≧ available capacity", it is determined that power supply is not possible, and if "total power supply amount up to the relevant time period < available capacity", it is determined that power supply is possible. The symbol T is used within the scope of this formula.

[0114] Also, the information of the allocated storage battery in the assumed contingency plan and "maximum output of storage battery information by area 107 in FIG. 15 × time" can be calculated as the amount of power that the storage battery can supply in the relevant time period. In this case, the availability of power supply may be determined based on how many hours have passed since the power supply start time for the time period in which the power supply is set. For example, if the time elapsed from the power supply start time is T, the total power supply amount up to the relevant time period is calculated by "maximum output of the storage battery × T", and this value is compared with the capacity in the storage battery information by area 107. If "total power supply amount up to the relevant time period ≧ relevant capacity", it is determined that power supply is not possible, and if "total power supply amount < relevant capacity", it is determined that power supply is possible. The symbol T may be used within the scope of this formula.

[0115] The amount of power supply for each time period of the area can be calculated by adding up the total value of the power supply amount of the generator, the power source vehicle, and the storage battery for each time period calculated in this way and the predicted value of the renewable energy power generation for each time period. FIG. 16 is an example of the area demand forecast value 101, and the demand forecast value and the total demand amount for each consumer type (general household, business (high voltage), business (low voltage)) are stored for each time period of each area. The amount of power supply for each time period of the area is compared with the total demand amount for the area in the area demand forecast value 101, and it can be determined that there is no power outage if the "power supply amount ≧ the total demand amount", and that there is a power outage if the "power supply amount < the total demand amount". In addition, if there is a power outage, the total demand amount can be estimated as the amount of power outage for the time period. In addition, the amount of power outage for each consumer type can be estimated by referring to the demand forecast value for each consumer type (general household, business (high voltage), business (low voltage)) in the area demand forecast value 101. The estimation results of the presence / absence of a power outage and the amount of power outage in each area thus estimated can be stored in the power outage duration / amount estimation results 111 in the format shown in FIG.

[0116] Next, the cost-benefit assessment unit 34 can assess the costs and benefits that will occur based on the assumed provisional contingency plan and the power outage amount estimation result (step S103).

[0117] FIG. 9 is a flowchart showing the details of the processing procedure (step S103) of the cost-benefit evaluation of the interim contingency plan.

[0118] When the cost-benefit evaluation of the provisional ContePlan is started, first, the wheeling revenue reduction calculation unit 44 performs a process of calculating the wheeling revenue reduction amount based on the estimated power outage amount in each area (step S500). Specifically, first, the wheeling charge unit price (yen / kWh) is set for each consumer type (general household, business (high voltage), business (low voltage)). Next, as shown in formula (2), the wheeling revenue reduction amount for each consumer type can be calculated by multiplying the power outage duration / power outage amount estimation result 111 by the power outage amount for each consumer type.

[0119] The reduction in wheeling revenue for all consumers can be calculated by adding up the reduction in wheeling revenue for each consumer type.

[0120] Next, the power outage penalty calculation unit 45 can perform a process of calculating losses taking into account the power outage penalty based on the estimated power outage amount for each area (step S501). Specifically, first, the penalty unit price (yen / kWh) and the allowable power outage amount (MWh) can be set to arbitrary values. These arbitrary values ​​may be any value appropriately selected by the electric power company itself. Next, as shown in formula (6), the power outage penalty can be calculated by multiplying the deviation amount of the total power outage amount for the entire target time period from the allowable power outage amount by the penalty unit price.

[0121] Next, the consumer loss calculation unit 35 can perform a process of calculating consumer losses based on the estimated power outage amount in each area (step S502). Details of the consumer loss calculation process will be described later in Section 3-2 "Various processes for consumer loss calculation."

[0122] Next, the power source operating cost calculation unit 46 can calculate the operating cost of each power source using the power source allocation of the assumed contingency plan, the power source list 100, and the area demand forecast value 101 (step S503). Specifically, first, the power plants that are allocated to the area and that are in operation and that were determined in step S201 can be extracted. When one area has one power generator allocated to it, the total demand amount of the area demand forecast value for that area can be taken as the amount of power generated by the power plant in each time period. When one area has multiple power generators allocated to it, the power source list 100 can be referred to and the amount of power generated by each power plant can be calculated by apportioning the total demand amount in proportion to the ratio of the maximum output of the assigned power plants. Next, the power source list 100 is referred to and the coefficient a of the cost function of the assigned power plant is calculated. g , the coefficient b of the cost function g , the coefficient c of the cost function g , and the generator cost function coefficient (a g ,b g ,c g) can be used to calculate the cost of operation during each time period using equation (7).

[0123] Next, the power supply car operation cost calculation unit 48 uses the allocation and power supply car operation cost 114 for power supply car dispatch of the contingency plan assumed in step S401 to calculate the costs involved in dispatching and operating a power supply car (step S504). Specifically, first, the power supply cars allocated to the area can be extracted. Next, the power supply car operation cost 114 in FIG. 19 is referenced, and the coefficient a of the cost function of the allocated power supply car is calculated. Veh , the coefficient b of the cost function Veh , the coefficient c of the cost function Veh , can be extracted. Then, the coefficients of the cost function (a Veh ,b Veh ,c Veh ) can be used to calculate the cost of operation during each time period using equation (8).

[0124] Next, the power source transfer / system reconfiguration cost calculation unit 47 can calculate the cost required for power source transfer / system reconfiguration (step S505). Specifically, first, the power plants allocated to the area can be extracted. Next, the power source transfer cost unit price 110 in FIG. 18 can be referenced to extract the operation cost required for changing the supply area. Then, if the power source allocation in the assumed contingency plan differs from the area to which power is normally supplied, it can be determined that additional operation costs required for changing the supply area will be incurred for the power generator.

[0125] Next, the total loss calculation unit 36 ​​can calculate the total loss based on the wheeling income reduction amount calculation result, the power outage penalty calculation result, and the customer loss calculation result, using formula (9).

[0126] The total cost calculation unit 37 calculates the power source operating cost calculation result, the power source vehicle operating cost calculation result, and the power source Based on the power source replacement cost calculation result obtained by the processing in the replacement / system reconfiguration cost calculation unit 47, the total cost can be calculated by the formula (10).

[0127] Then, the total benefit evaluation unit 38 can calculate the overall evaluation value, i.e., the overall evaluation value of the provisional contingency plan, based on the total loss calculated by the total loss calculation unit 36 ​​and the total cost calculated by the total cost calculation unit 37 using formula (11) (step S506).

[0128] Thereafter, the cost-benefit evaluation process (S103) of the provisional Conteplan can be terminated.

[0129] When the cost-benefit evaluation process (S103) of the provisional contingency plan is completed, the disaster countermeasure planning system 10 can carry out the process of calculating the improvement degree (step S104).

[0130] Specifically, the improvement degree can be calculated by calculating the difference between the overall evaluation value (total benefit) of the provisional conte plan calculated in S103 and the overall evaluation value (total benefit) of the initial conte plan calculated in S101.

[0131] Then, by repeating steps S101 to S104 until a specified end condition is reached, a contingency plan with a high overall evaluation value can be searched for (step S105). This search may be performed via the benefit improvement unit 33. This search may be performed by using a metaheuristic method such as a greedy method or a genetic algorithm, with the improvement degree as an evaluation function, and a process of increasing the improvement degree by generating a new provisional contingency plan so that the evaluation function is improved. In this way, the disaster countermeasure plan making unit 30 can evaluate multiple measures based on the set conditions, generate a measure with a high evaluation value of benefit from among them, and output the measure. This output can be performed by the output unit 24, and can also be output, such as displaying the result on the user terminal 12 of the distribution power company via the communication network 11 via the communication unit 25. Note that this disaster countermeasure plan making system is for evaluating multiple measures.

[0132] Such a configuration performs optimization processing, and can obtain an optimal plan under given conditions.

[0133] In addition, in this case, if the total value of the calculated power source operating cost, power source vehicle operating cost, and power source replacement cost is calculated with α representing the countermeasure cost of the power transmission and distribution business operator, and β representing the consumer loss calculated in the previous period, only contingency plans in which the ratio of α and β is within a predetermined range, for example, "arbitrary minimum value < α / β < arbitrary maximum value," can be adopted. Here, the arbitrary minimum value and the arbitrary maximum value may be any value determined by the power transmission and distribution business operator as appropriate, and it goes without saying that they are determined so that "arbitrary minimum value < arbitrary maximum value." In addition, a penalty for the deviation may be imposed on the evaluation value of a contingency plan that deviates from the predetermined range.

[0134] In this way, the planning unit may generate and / or output measures that ensure the ratio between the cost required for the power transmission and distribution company's measures and the power outage losses of power consumers falls within a specified range.

[0135] As mentioned above, by making the ratio of α and β fall within a predetermined range, there is an advantage in ensuring fairness in the burden of costs between electricity consumers and electricity transmission and distribution businesses. This process also keeps the balance between consumer expenditures and electricity transmission and distribution business expenditures caused by disasters within a predetermined range, and is expected to prevent cases in which electricity transmission and distribution businesses take excessive measures compared to consumer losses.

[0136] In addition, only contingency plans for which the difference Θ between the consumer loss in the initial contingency plan and the consumer loss in the provisional contingency plan is equal to or greater than an arbitrarily determined threshold may be adopted, or a penalty for the deviation may be imposed on the evaluation value of a contingency plan that is equal to or less than the threshold. This processing is expected to allow for the creation of a plan that takes into account the minimum loss compensation for consumers. The arbitrarily determined threshold may be a threshold determined arbitrarily by the electricity transmission and distribution company as deemed appropriate.

[0137] Figure 29 is a comparative image of consumer losses and the countermeasure costs of the electricity transmission and distribution business operators. In this figure, the countermeasure costs of the electricity transmission and distribution business operators α are shown as "transmission and distribution countermeasure costs" and consumer losses β are shown as "consumer loss impact level (total)." The "transmission and distribution countermeasure costs" and "consumer loss impact level (total)" shown when countermeasures are taken are from the provisional contingency plan. The "consumer loss impact level (total)" shown when no countermeasures are taken is from the initial contingency plan. The difference between consumer losses in the initial contingency plan and those in the provisional contingency plan is shown as Θ.

[0138] If a specified end condition is reached in step S105, the contingency plan with the highest degree of improvement during the search process can be adopted as the best plan (step S106). Then, the result can be stored in the contingency plan optimization result 112, and the process can be terminated.

[0139] FIG. 21 is an example of a contingency plan optimization result 112, which may store information on the source power plant, assigned power generation vehicle, and assigned storage battery, which are the contingency plan for each area, as well as the calculation results of each value in the cost-benefit evaluation.

[0140] As a specific method for notifying the power transmission and distribution business operator of the optimization results, for example, the screen shown in Fig. 27 can be displayed on the user terminal of the power transmission and distribution business operator. As a display method, for example, the predicted power outage amount for each area at the specified date and time, the estimated operation / stop status of each power plant, and the supply destination in the contingency plan may be visually displayed. In addition, the total benefit in the contingency plan, the benefit improvement amount compared to the initial contingency plan, and the consumer loss may be displayed together with the breakdown thereof.

[0141] (3-2) Various processes for calculating customer losses 10 is a flowchart showing the processing procedure for calculating customer losses by the disaster countermeasures planning system 10. The customer loss calculation unit 35 of the disaster countermeasures planning system 10 can sequentially execute a customer power outage estimation result reading process (step S600), a customer disaster countermeasure preparation time calculation process (step S601), a pre-measure availability determination process (step S602), a power outage cost calculation process (step S603), a condition branch process regarding "Have all customers been processed?" (step S604), and a total power outage cost calculation process for all customers (step S605).

[0142] When the customer loss calculation process is started, first, the customer disaster countermeasure preparation time calculation unit 50 shown in FIG. 4 reads data of the power outage duration / power outage amount estimation result 111 (step S600).

[0143] Next, using the read data, the consumer disaster countermeasure preparation time calculation unit 50 can calculate the preparation time for disaster countermeasures for each consumer type (step S601). Specifically, by referring to the information on the occurrence or non-occurrence of a power outage in the power outage duration / amount estimation result 111, the time when the power outage first occurs, that is, the start time of the power outage, can be extracted. Then, the preparation time for disaster countermeasures can be calculated by taking the difference between the start time of the power outage and the current time.

[0144] Next, the advance countermeasures feasibility determination unit 51 determines whether advance countermeasures can be taken for each consumer by using the disaster countermeasures preparation time of each consumer and the consumer-specific necessary advance countermeasures time 104 calculated by the consumer disaster countermeasures preparation time calculation unit 50 (step S602). FIG. 23 is an example of the consumer-specific necessary advance countermeasures time 104, in which the necessary advance countermeasures time of each consumer is set for each consumer type. Specifically, if "the consumer's disaster countermeasures preparation time ≧ the necessary advance countermeasures time of the consumer", it can be determined that the consumer of the consumer type can take advance countermeasures, and if "the consumer's disaster countermeasures preparation time < the necessary advance countermeasures time of the consumer", it can be determined that the consumer of the consumer type cannot take advance countermeasures.

[0145] Next, the power outage cost calculation unit 52 can calculate the cost of power outages for consumers, i.e., the power outage cost, by using the power outage amount for each time period of the consumer calculated from the power outage duration / amount estimation result 111, the advance countermeasure availability determination result determined by the advance countermeasure availability determination unit 51, and the case-specific power outage cost estimated unit price 105 (step S603). FIG. 24 is an example of the case-specific power outage cost estimated unit price 105, and a loss amount unit price according to the power outage duration may be set for each consumer type and for the advance countermeasure availability. In addition to the advance countermeasure availability, a loss amount unit price according to the day type such as weekday, Saturday / Sunday / holiday, etc. may be set. FIG. 26 is an image of the change in the case-specific power outage cost estimated unit price according to the time length.

[0146] As described above, the power outage loss of the power consumer, i.e., the loss including the power outage cost incurred by the power consumer due to the power outage, may be calculated based on the above-mentioned power outage amount and information including the time required for the power consumer affected by the power outage in the area where the power outage is predicted to take advance measures, i.e., the above-mentioned first information. By configuring in this way, the power outage loss of the consumer can be evaluated well, with higher accuracy, fairness between the power transmission company and the consumer can be ensured, and a better disaster countermeasure plan can be formulated.

[0147] In addition, the time required for the above-mentioned advance measures may depend on the type of the power consumer, and may be different for each type of the power consumer. In addition, the above-mentioned first information may include the type of the power consumer. By configuring in this way, it is possible to create a more accurate disaster prevention plan that takes into account the type of the consumer.

[0148] Furthermore, the first information may include information on the amount of loss per unit time that depends on the type of power consumer, or may include information on the amount of loss per unit time that differs for each type of power consumer. By configuring in this way, it is possible to create a more accurate disaster prevention plan that takes into account the amount of loss related to advance measures based on the type of consumer.

[0149] As a specific method for calculating the power outage cost, first, the time elapsed from the start of the power outage extracted as described above to each time period is set as the power outage duration in that time period. Then, for each consumer type, the estimated unit price of the power outage cost according to the time period (day type), the power outage duration, and the availability of advance measures for each time period is calculated by multiplying by the amount of power outage for that consumer type in that time period, and the amount of loss for each consumer type is calculated. By adding up all the consumer types, the cost due to the power outage for all consumers can be calculated.

[0150] In this case, for example, the economic scale in normal times for each consumer type may be set to an arbitrary value equal to or greater than 0, and the loss amount for each consumer type may be divided by this value to calculate the impact of the loss on economic activity in normal times, which may be regarded as the consumer's loss. The economic scale may be an economic scale such as a small shop or an ordinary household as compared to a factory. Here, these scales may be expressed numerically and used. This process is expected to allow for, for example, evaluation of losses taking into account differences in economic scale depending on the type of consumer. An example of an evaluation of losses taking into account differences in economic scale is shown in FIG. 28. In the graphs in FIG. 28, the left graph is an image showing the amount of power outage loss and the normal economic scale for consumers A, B, and C, and the vertical axis may represent the amount of loss as well as the normal economic scale. The left graph in FIG. 28 is normalized for consumers A, B, and C by dividing the loss amount of each consumer by the normal economic scale of each consumer as the loss impact degree. In the case of Fig. 28, for example, it can be seen that the loss impact degree is relatively small for consumer A and relatively large for consumer C. In this way, it has the effect of being able to estimate the impact of loss according to the consumer.

[0151] An example of a method for calculating the cost to the consumer is shown in Equation (12).

[0152]

number

[0153] Here, consumerLoss a is the cost to consumers in area a, and Plossa,c,t1 is the total amount of outage (MWh) for customer type c in area a during time period t1, and unitLoss(c,s,t2,pr) is the unit cost of outage (yen / kWh) that depends on customer type c, time s, outage duration t2, and the availability of advance measures pr. EC c may be the economic scale of the consumer type c in normal times. The symbols t1 and t2 may be used within the scope of this formula.

[0154] As described above, the planning unit may calculate the power outage loss of the power consumer based on the economic scale of the power consumer in normal times.

[0155] Next, the above-mentioned steps S600 to S604 are repeated until all consumer types are processed (step S604). When all consumers are processed, the all-consumer total power outage cost calculation unit 53 sums up the losses due to the power outage of each consumer, calculates the total power outage cost of all consumers, and stores the processing result in the consumer loss calculation result 113, and the processing can be terminated (step S605). An example of the consumer loss calculation result 113 is shown in FIG. 25.

[0156] The power transmission and distribution company may directly control power plants, power supply vehicles, and storage batteries based on the contingency plan determined in this manner, or may indirectly operate the contingency plan by transmitting control information to other companies, such as power generation companies or operators of external power supply vehicles and storage batteries.

[0157] In addition, in this embodiment, examples have been given of using power supply vehicles and storage batteries as distributed power sources, but it goes without saying that contingency plans can be created in a similar manner when other distributed power sources, such as electric vehicles and emergency generators, are used.

[0158] (4) Effects of this embodiment As described above, the disaster countermeasures planning system of this embodiment is capable of accurately evaluating the sales losses of the electricity transmission and distribution company, such as reduced wheeling revenue and power outage penalties, countermeasure costs, such as generator replacement and distributed power source operating costs, and economic losses caused by power outages to consumers, based on the predicted values ​​of the duration and amount of power outage in each area when a disaster occurs, the predicted values ​​of the duration and amount of power outage when contingency plans for power source replacement, system switching, and distributed power sources are implemented, the type of consumers in each area, and the amount of time that consumers can take advance countermeasures, and is capable of evaluating the total benefit of contingency plans based on the economic losses, and of formulating contingency plans that improve the total benefit, thereby improving the cost-effectiveness of the electricity transmission and distribution company.

[0159] With this configuration, it is possible to provide a disaster countermeasure planning system and method that can accurately evaluate the economic loss of consumers due to a power outage, shorten the recovery time from a power outage, and improve the cost-effectiveness of the countermeasures of the power transmission and distribution company. In addition, since the effect of the countermeasures can be automatically calculated by a computer as an evaluation value and a plan for improving the evaluation value can be automatically created by a computer, the calculation time required for planning countermeasures when a disaster occurs can be shortened.

[0160] The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment, and the components can be modified and embodied in an implementation stage without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention.

[0161] The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and includes various modified examples and equivalent configurations within the spirit of the appended claims. For example, the above-described embodiments have been described in detail to clearly explain the present invention, and the present invention is not necessarily limited to those including all of the configurations described. Furthermore, a part of the configuration of one embodiment may be replaced with the configuration of another embodiment. Furthermore, the configuration of another embodiment may be added to the configuration of one embodiment. Furthermore, a part of the configuration of each embodiment may be added, deleted, or replaced with another configuration.

[0162] Furthermore, each of the aforementioned configurations, functions, processing units, processing means, etc. may be realized in hardware, for example by designing some or all of them as an integrated circuit, or may be realized in software by a processor interpreting and executing a program that realizes each function.

[0163] Information such as programs, tables, and files that realize each function can be stored in a storage device such as a memory, a hard disk, or an SSD (Solid State Drive), or in a recording medium such as an IC card, an SD card, or a DVD.

[0164] In addition, the control lines and information lines shown are those considered necessary for the explanation, and do not necessarily show all the control lines and information lines necessary for implementation. In reality, it can be considered that almost all components are connected to each other. [Explanation of symbols]

[0165] 10... Disaster countermeasures planning system, 11... Communication network, 12... User terminal, 21... Calculation unit, 22... Memory, 23... Input unit, 24... Output unit, 25... Communication unit, 26... Storage device, 30... Disaster countermeasures planning unit, 31... Conteplan assumption unit, 32... Power outage duration / power outage amount estimation unit, 33... Benefit improvement unit, 34... Cost-benefit evaluation unit, 35... Customer loss calculation unit, 36... Total loss calculation unit, 37... Total cost calculation unit, 38... Total benefit evaluation unit, 39 ...Facility failure prediction unit, 40...Power source allocation assumption unit, 41...Power source vehicle dispatch area assumption unit, 42...Battery operation area assumption unit, 43...Renewable energy power generation amount prediction unit, 44...Transportation revenue reduction amount calculation unit, 45...Power outage penalty calculation unit, 46...Power source operation cost calculation unit, 47...Power source replacement / system reconfiguration cost calculation unit, 48...Power source vehicle operation cost calculation unit, 50...Customer disaster countermeasure preparation time calculation unit, 51...Advance countermeasure feasibility determination unit, 52...Power outage cost calculation unit, 53...All-customer total power outage cost calculation unit

Claims

1. A disaster prevention planning system, comprising: A computing unit that executes computational processing and a storage unit that is accessible by the computing unit, The calculation unit has a planning unit that plans measures to prepare for a predetermined disaster, The planning unit includes: Generate first predicted values ​​for a power outage duration and a power outage amount in an area where a power outage is predicted due to the disaster; A second predicted value is generated for each of a power outage duration and a power outage amount when a countermeasure is taken in the area; Evaluating at least the benefit of the countermeasure based on the first predicted value, the second predicted value, first information including a time required for power consumers affected by a power outage in the area to take advance measures, and second information regarding losses associated with the disaster; A disaster prevention planning system comprising:

2. 2. The disaster countermeasure planning system according to claim 1, The second information includes sales losses of the electricity transmission and distribution company, costs required for the measures, and power outage losses of the electricity consumers. A disaster prevention planning system comprising:

3. 3. The disaster countermeasure planning system according to claim 2, The said sales loss of the electricity transmission and distribution company includes a reduction in wheeling revenue or a power outage penalty amount, The costs include the cost of operating a power source or the cost of operating a distributed power source. A disaster prevention planning system comprising:

4. 3. The disaster countermeasure planning system according to claim 2, The power outage loss of the power consumer is calculated based on the amount of power outage and the first information. A disaster prevention planning system comprising:

5. 3. The disaster countermeasure planning system according to claim 2, The first information includes a type of electric power consumer, The time required for the advance measures depends on the type of the power consumer. A disaster prevention planning system comprising:

6. 6. A disaster countermeasure planning system according to claim 4, The first information includes information on a loss amount per unit time depending on a type of the power consumer. A disaster prevention planning system comprising:

7. 2. The disaster countermeasure planning system according to claim 1, the planning unit evaluates a plurality of measures based on the set conditions and generates a measure having a high evaluation value of benefit from among the measures; A disaster prevention planning system comprising:

8. 2. The disaster countermeasure planning system according to claim 1, The planning unit calculates a power outage loss of the power consumer based on the economic scale of the power consumer in peacetime. A disaster prevention planning system comprising:

9. 2. The disaster countermeasure planning system according to claim 1, The plan creation unit generates a measure that causes a ratio of a cost required for the measure of the power transmission and distribution company and a power outage loss of the power consumer to fall within a specified range. A disaster prevention planning system comprising:

10. A disaster countermeasure planning method executed by a disaster countermeasure planning system for planning a countermeasure against a predetermined disaster, comprising: The disaster countermeasure planning system includes a computing device that executes computational processing, and a storage device that is accessible by the computing device, The disaster countermeasure planning method includes: The computing device generates first predicted values ​​for a power outage duration and a power outage amount in an area where a power outage is predicted due to the disaster; The computing device generates second predicted values ​​for each of a power outage duration and a power outage amount when a countermeasure is taken in the area; The calculation device includes a step of evaluating at least a benefit of the countermeasure based on the first predicted value, the second predicted value, first information including a time required for a power consumer affected by a power outage in the area to take a pre-emptive measure, and second information regarding a loss associated with the disaster. A disaster countermeasure planning method comprising:

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