Participation intention estimation device, participation intention estimation method, program, and recording medium

Abstract

To provide a participation motivation estimation device capable of estimating of motivation of persons participating in an event.SOLUTION: In a participation motivation estimation device 10 of the present invention, an acquisition part 11 acquires visit information. The visit information is information obtained by associating identification information showing an individual visitor with time information showing time when the visitor visits an arbitrary place. A visit interval calculation part 12 calculates a visit interval of each visitor on the basis of the visit information. A participation motivation estimation part 14 estimates motivation of the visitor to participate in an event on the basis of the visit interval.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a participation intention estimation device, a participation intention estimation method, a program, and a recording medium.

Background Art

[0002] As a technique for promoting participation in an event, for example, Patent Document 1 reports a technique of exchanging participation points given to a participant for participating in an event for a coupon.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0003]

Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0004] However, in order to more efficiently promote participation in an event, a technique that enables estimation of people's intention to participate in the event is required.

[0005] Therefore, an object of the present invention is to provide a participation intention estimation device, a participation intention estimation method, a program, and a recording medium that can estimate people's intention to participate in an event.

Means for Solving the Problems

[0006] To achieve the above object, the participation intention estimation device of the present invention includes an acquisition unit, a visit interval calculation unit, and a participation intention estimation unit, the acquisition unit acquires visit information, the visit information is information associating identification information indicating an individual visitor with time information indicating the time when the visitor visited an arbitrary place, the visit interval calculation unit calculates the visit interval for each visitor based on the visit information, The participation intention estimation unit is a device that estimates the intention of the visitor to participate in the event based on the visit interval.

[0007] The participation intention estimation method of the present invention includes an acquisition step, a visit interval calculation step, and a participation intention estimation step, the acquisition step acquires visit information, the visit information is information associating identification information indicating an individual visitor with time information indicating the time when the visitor visited an arbitrary place, the visit interval calculation step calculates the visit interval for each visitor based on the visit information, the participation intention estimation step is a method for estimating the intention of the visitor to participate in the event based on the visit interval.

Effect of the Invention

[0008] According to the present invention, it is possible to estimate people's intention to participate in an event.

Brief Description of the Drawings

[0009]

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5A

Figure 5B

Figure 5C

Figure 5D

Figure 6

[0010] The willingness estimation device of the present invention, for example, further includes a coefficient of variation calculation unit, The visit interval calculation unit calculates an average value and a standard deviation of the visit intervals for each visitor based on the visit information, The coefficient of variation calculation unit calculates the coefficient of variation related to the visit for each visitor by dividing the standard deviation by the average value of the visit intervals, The willingness estimation unit may estimate the willingness in such a manner that the willingness is estimated for visitors who fall within a preset number in descending order of the coefficient of variation among a plurality of visitors.

[0011] In the willingness estimation device of the present invention, for example, The willingness estimation unit may estimate that there is the willingness for visitors having a coefficient of variation equal to or greater than a preset threshold value.

[0012] In the willingness estimation device of the present invention, for example, The willingness estimation unit may estimate that there is the willingness for visitors having a coefficient of variation equal to or greater than a preset threshold value.

[0013] The willingness estimation device of the present invention, for example, further includes a correction value calculation unit, The acquisition unit acquires the number of visitors per day information, The number of visitors per day information is information recording the number of visitors per day to the arbitrary place within a predetermined period, The correction value calculation unit calculates the event implementation probability for each day using the daily visitor number information, and based on the visit information, within the predetermined period, the sum of the event implementation probabilities corresponding to the days when the visitors visited is used as the correction value. The participation intention estimation unit may estimate the intention based on the visit interval and the correction value.

[0014] The participation intention estimation device of the present invention, for example, further includes a recording unit, The recording unit may record the visit information.

[0015] The participation intention estimation device of the present invention, for example, further includes a notification unit, The notification unit may notify each visitor of event holding notices with different contents according to the degree of the intention.

[0016] The participation intention estimation method of the present invention, for example, further includes a coefficient of variation calculation step, In the visit interval calculation step, based on the visit information, the average value and standard deviation of the visit intervals for each visitor are calculated. In the coefficient of variation calculation step, the coefficient of variation regarding the visit is calculated for each visitor by dividing the standard deviation by the average value of the visit intervals. The participation intention estimation step may estimate the intention using the coefficient of variation.

[0017] In the participation intention estimation method of the present invention, for example, In the participation intention estimation step, among a plurality of visitors, it may be estimated that the visitors who fall into a preset number in descending order of the coefficient of variation have the intention.

[0018] In the participation intention estimation method of the present invention, for example, The participation willingness estimation step may be configured to estimate that the visitor having the coefficient of variation equal to or greater than a preset threshold has the willingness.

[0019] The participation willingness estimation method of the present invention is, for example, further including a correction value calculation step, The acquisition step acquires the number of visitors information for each day, The number of visitors information for each day is information recording the number of visitors for each day to the arbitrary location within a predetermined period, The correction value calculation step calculates the event implementation probability for each day using the number of visitors information for each day, and based on the visit information, within the predetermined period, the sum of the event implementation probabilities corresponding to the days when the visitor visited is set as the correction value, The participation willingness estimation step may be configured to estimate the willingness based on the visit interval and the correction value.

[0020] The participation willingness estimation method of the present invention is, for example, further including a recording step, The recording step may be configured to record the visit information.

[0021] The participation willingness estimation method of the present invention is, for example, further including a notification step, The notification step may be configured to notify each visitor of an event holding notice with different contents according to the degree of the willingness.

[0022] The program of the present invention is a program for causing a computer to execute each step of the method of the present invention as a procedure.

[0023] The recording medium of the present invention is a computer-readable recording medium recording the program of the present invention.

[0024] As a result of their studies, the inventors have found that for visitors with low motivation to participate in an event, the deviation in the intervals between visits to any location is small, while for visitors with high motivation to participate in the event, the deviation in the intervals between visits is large. Visitors with low motivation to participate in the event come to any location at regular intervals due to habitual behavior, resulting in a small deviation in the intervals between visits. On the other hand, visitors with high motivation to participate in the event come to the event according to the event date, so it is presumed that the deviation in the intervals between visits is large. However, the present invention is not limited to this presumption in any way.

[0025] Next, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. The present invention is not limited to the following embodiments. In the following figures, the same parts are denoted by the same reference numerals. Also, unless otherwise specified, the descriptions of the respective embodiments can be mutually referred to, and the configurations of the respective embodiments can be combined unless otherwise specified.

[0026] [Embodiment 1] FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of an example of the participation motivation estimation device 10 according to the present embodiment. As shown in FIG. 1, the device 10 includes an acquisition unit 11, a visit interval calculation unit 12, and a participation motivation estimation unit 14. Further, as an optional configuration, the device 10 may further include a coefficient of variation calculation unit 13, a correction value calculation unit 15, a recording unit 16, a notification unit 17, and the like.

[0027] The device 10 may be, for example, one device including the above-described respective parts, or the respective parts may be devices connectable via a communication line network. Further, the device 10 can be connected to an external device described later via the communication line network. The communication line network is not particularly limited, and a known network can be used. For example, it may be wired or wireless. Examples of the communication line network include an Internet line, the World Wide Web (WWW), a telephone line, a local area network (LAN), a storage area network (SAN), a delay tolerant networking (DTN), a low power wide area (LPWA), a local 5G, etc. Examples of the wireless communication include Wi-Fi (registered trademark), Bluetooth (registered trademark), local 5G, LPWA, etc. The wireless communication may be in a form in which each device communicates directly (Ad Hoc communication), infrastructure communication, indirect communication via an access point, etc. The device 10 may be incorporated into a server as a system, for example. Further, the device 10 may be, for example, a personal computer (PC, for example, a desktop type or a notebook type), a smartphone, a tablet terminal, etc. in which the program of the present invention is installed. Furthermore, the device 10 may be in a form such as cloud computing or edge computing, for example, in which at least one of the above-described respective parts is on a server and the other respective parts are on a terminal.

[0028] FIG. 2 illustrates a block diagram of the hardware configuration of the device 10. The device 10 includes, for example, a central processing unit (CPU, GPU, etc.) 101, a memory 102, a bus 103, a storage device 104, an input device 105, a display device 106, a communication device 107, an imaging device 108, an audio input / output device 109, etc. Each part of the device 10 is interconnected via the bus 103 by respective interfaces (I / F).

[0029] The central processing unit 101 is responsible for the overall control of the apparatus 10. In the apparatus 10, for example, the program of the present invention and other programs are executed by the central processing unit 101, and various information is read and written. Specifically, for example, the central processing unit 101 functions as an acquisition unit 11, a visit interval calculation unit 12, a coefficient of variation calculation unit 13, a participation intention estimation unit 14, a correction value calculation unit 15, a recording unit 16, and a notification unit 17.

[0030] The bus 103 can be connected to, for example, an external device. Examples of the external device include an external storage device (such as an external database), a printer, an external input device, an external display device, an external imaging device, and the like. The apparatus 10 can be connected to an external network (the communication line network) by, for example, a communication device 107 connected to the bus 103, and can also be connected to other devices via the external network.

[0031] The memory 102 includes, for example, a main memory (primary storage device). When the central processing unit 101 performs processing, for example, the memory 102 reads various operation programs such as the program of the present invention stored in the storage device 104 described later, and the central processing unit 101 receives data from the memory 102 and executes the program. The main memory is, for example, a RAM (random access memory). Further, the memory 102 may be, for example, a ROM (read-only memory).

[0032] The memory device 104 is, for example, also referred to as a so-called auxiliary storage device with respect to the main memory (primary storage device). As described above, an operation program including the program of the present invention is stored in the memory device 104. The memory device 104 may be, for example, a combination of a recording medium and a drive for reading and writing to the recording medium. The recording medium is not particularly limited, and may be, for example, an internal type or an external type, and examples include HD (hard disk), CD-ROM, CD-R, CD-RW, MO, DVD, flash memory, memory card, etc. The memory device 104 may be, for example, a hard disk drive (HDD) in which a recording medium and a drive are integrated, and a solid state drive (SSD).

[0033] In the present apparatus 10, the memory 102 and the memory device 104 can also store various kinds of information such as log information, information acquired from an external database (not shown) or an external device, information generated by the present apparatus 10, and information used when the present apparatus 10 executes processing. Note that at least a part of the information may be stored in an external server other than the memory 102 and the memory device 104, for example, or may be distributed and stored in a plurality of terminals using blockchain technology or the like. Further, the memory 102 and the memory device 104 may store, for example, various kinds of information recorded by the recording unit 16.

[0034] The present apparatus 10 may further include, for example, an input device 105, a display device 106, an imaging device 108, and an audio input / output device 109. The input device 105 is, for example, a touch panel, a keyboard, a mouse, etc. The display device 106 includes, for example, an LED display, a liquid crystal display, etc. The imaging device 108 is, for example, a 2D camera, a 3D camera, an infrared camera, etc. The audio input / output device 109 is, for example, a sound sensor, a microphone, a speaker, etc.

[0035] Next, an example of the participation intention estimation method of the present embodiment will be described based on the flowchart of FIG. 3. The participation intention estimation method of the present embodiment is implemented as follows, for example, using the participation intention estimation device 10 of FIG. 1. Note that the participation intention estimation method of the present embodiment is not limited to the use of the participation intention estimation device 10 of FIG. 1. Also, the steps shown in parentheses in FIG. 3 are optional steps.

[0036] First, the acquisition unit 11 acquires visit information (S11a, acquisition step). The visit information is information that associates identification information indicating individual visitors with time information indicating the time when the visitors visited an arbitrary location. The acquisition unit 11 may acquire the visit information from an external server, an external database, etc. via the communication network, for example, or may acquire it by reading the visit information stored in the memory 102 and the storage device 104. The identification information may be, for example, the identification information of the belongings carried by the visitor when visiting the arbitrary location. Examples of the belongings include an admission ticket, an IC (integrated circuit) card, a mobile phone, a smartphone, a wearable device, etc. The identification information is, for example, an ID (identification), an email address, biometric information (face, fingerprint, voice, etc.). Note that the arbitrary location is not particularly limited as long as an event has been held there irregularly, and it may be indoor, outdoor, or inside a moving body such as a train. Also, the arbitrary location may be a location where it is necessary to visit regularly in daily life. Specifically, examples of the arbitrary location include a garbage station, a park, a supermarket, a convenience store, etc.

[0037] Next, the visit interval calculation unit 12 calculates the visit interval for each visitor based on the visit information (S12, visit interval calculation step). The visit interval calculation unit 12 may calculate, for example, the average value (hereinafter also referred to as the average visit interval) and the standard deviation of the visit intervals.

[0038] When calculating the average value of the arrival intervals and the standard deviation, for example, next, the coefficient of variation calculation unit 13 may calculate the coefficient of variation regarding the arrivals for each visitor by dividing the standard deviation by the average value of the arrival intervals (S13, coefficient of variation calculation step).

[0039] Then, the participation intention estimation unit 14 estimates the intention of the visitor to participate in the event based on the arrival intervals (S14, participation intention estimation step), and ends (END). Hereinafter, the intention is also referred to as the "participation intention". The participation intention estimation unit 14 may estimate the intention, for example, using the coefficient of variation calculated based on the arrival intervals. Specifically, the participation intention estimation unit 14 may, for example, estimate that among a plurality of visitors, the visitors who fall within a preset number in descending order of the coefficient of variation have "participation intention". The preset number is not particularly limited, and may be set, for example, as a ratio to the total number of all visitors such as the top 50%. Further, the participation intention estimation unit 14 may, for example, estimate that the visitors having the coefficient of variation equal to or greater than a preset threshold have "participation intention". The threshold is not particularly limited and can be set arbitrarily. Thus, the participation intention estimation unit 14 may estimate the presence or absence of the participation intention, or may, for example, calculate the degree of the participation intention. The method for calculating the degree of the participation intention is not particularly limited, and for example, the coefficient of variation may be used as the degree of the participation intention.

[0040] As described above, the apparatus 10 may further include, for example, a correction value calculation unit 15. In this case, the acquisition unit 11 acquires the daily visitor number information (S11b, acquisition step). The daily visitor number information is information recording the number of visitors to the arbitrary place each day within a predetermined period. The predetermined period is not particularly limited and may be, for example, one month, half a year, one year, or more than one year. The acquisition unit 11 may acquire the daily visitor number information from an external server, an external database, etc. via the communication network, for example, in the same manner as described above, or may acquire it by reading the daily visitor number information stored in the memory 102 and the storage device 104. The step (S11b) may be executed in parallel with the step (S11a) or sequentially as shown in FIG. 3. The order is not particularly limited.

[0041] After executing the steps (S11a) and (S11b), the correction value calculation unit 15 calculates the event execution probability for each day using the daily visitor number information, and based on the visit information, within the predetermined period, the sum of the event execution probabilities corresponding to the days when the visitors visited is set as the correction value (S15, correction value calculation step). The specific processing of the correction value calculation unit 15 will be described later. The event execution probability is, for example, an index indicating the likelihood of an event being executed. Generally, it is estimated that the number of visitors increases on the day when an event is executed. Therefore, it can be said that the correction value calculation unit 15 calculates the likelihood of an event being executed by utilizing the relationship between the day when an event is executed and the number of visitors.

[0042] After executing the step (S15), in the step (S14), the participation intention estimation unit 14 estimates the intention based on the visit interval and the correction value. The participation intention estimation unit 14 may estimate the intention using, for example, a value calculated by arithmetic operations based on the visit interval and the correction value. Specifically, examples of the "value calculated by arithmetic operations" include, for example, a numerical value obtained by multiplying the coefficient of variation by the correction value, a numerical value obtained by adding the coefficient of variation to the correction value, etc. Note that the formula for this arithmetic operation is an example and is not limited thereto.

[0043] As described above, the apparatus 10 may further include, for example, a recording unit 16. The recording unit 16 records, for example, the information such as the visit information and the number of visitors per day information (S16, recording step). The step (S16) may be executed, for example, before the step (S11a) and the step (S11b) as shown in FIG. 3. The method of recording each piece of information is not particularly limited.

[0044] When recording the visit information, the recording unit 16 may record the visit information, for example, by reading the identification information of the carried item when the visitor carrying the carried item visits the arbitrary place. Further, when recording the visit information, the recording unit 16 may record the visit information, for example, by detecting that the visitor carrying the carried item has entered the arbitrary place using Wi-Fi (registered trademark), Bluetooth (registered trademark), or the like. Furthermore, when recording the visit information, the recording unit 16 may record the visit information by detecting that the visitor has entered the arbitrary place using a sensor, a camera, or the like.

[0045] When recording the number of visitors per day information, the recording unit 16 may record the number of visitors per day in the same manner as when recording the visit information, for example.

[0046] As described above, the apparatus 10 may further include, for example, a notification unit 17. The notification unit 17 notifies each visitor of event holding notices with different contents according to the degree of the desire (S17, notification step). The method of the notification is not particularly limited. For example, the event holding notice may be notified to the terminal of the visitor, or the event holding notice may be displayed on the display device 106. The event holding notice is information regarding the notice of the event. The event is not particularly limited. Note that the arbitrary place at the visiting location and the event venue in the event holding notice may be the same place or different places. For example, among the visitors to the supermarket, the visitors with high participation desire may be estimated and the person may be notified of the event holding notice of the garbage station. The step (S17) is executed, for example, after the step (S14) as shown in FIG. 3.

[0047] According to the present embodiment, for example, by using the coefficient of variation, the desire of people for participating in an event can be estimated. Thereby, the participation in the event can be promoted efficiently, leading to the activation of the event. In the technology such as Patent Document 1, it is necessary to input the date when the event is implemented in association with the event implementation location. However, according to the present embodiment, since it is not necessary to input the date when the event is implemented, the labor of the operator can be saved. Furthermore, by using the correction value based on the event implementation probability, the desire can be estimated more accurately.

[0048] [Embodiment 2] An example of the processing related to the calculation of the average visiting interval, the calculation of the coefficient of variation, the calculation of the correction value, and the notification in the present invention will be described using the participation desire estimation apparatus 10 in FIG. 1. Note that these processes are not limited to the use of the participation desire estimation apparatus 10 in FIG. 1, and the same applies to the participation desire estimation method, program, and recording medium of the present invention.

[0049] FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of a process related to calculating the coefficient of variation from calculating the average interval between visits. FIG. 4(1) shows an example of displaying the visit information in a table format. Note that this is an illustration, and the visit information is not limited to being displayed in a table format. In the figure, "user" means the identification information of the visitor, and "date" means the time information. The interval between visits calculation unit 12 calculates the interval between visits for each visitor as shown in FIG. 4(2) based on the visit information. Specifically, as shown in the visit information of FIG. 4(1), user "B" first visited at "2021-01-01 10:00" and then visited at "2021-01-08 10:30". The interval between visits (interval) calculated by the interval between visits calculation unit 12 from these two time information is "168.5 (h)" as shown in the table of FIG. 4(2). In this example, the interval between visits is in hours, but it is not limited to this, and it may be in minutes or seconds. Next, as shown in FIG. 4(3), the interval between visits calculation unit 12 calculates the average (average interval between visits) and standard deviation of the interval between visits for each visitor. Then, as shown in FIG. 4(4), the coefficient of variation calculation unit 13 calculates the coefficient of variation for each visitor using the average interval between visits and standard deviation shown in FIG. 4(3).

[0050] FIGS. 5A to 5C are diagrams showing an example of a process related to calculating a correction value, and FIG. 5D is a diagram showing an example of a process related to estimating motivation. The correction value calculation unit 15 may calculate the correction value by executing, for example, the following processes (A) to (G). (A) Extract the minimum value of the number of visitors for each day of the week within a predetermined period. (B) Divide the number of visitors for each day indicated by the daily visitor number information by the minimum value. (C) Subtract using a common numerical value so that the numerical values for each day calculated by the division are within the range of 0 to 1. (D) Extract the maximum value among the numerical values for each day calculated by the subtraction. (E) Divide the numerical values for each day calculated by the subtraction by the maximum value. (F) Calculate the event implementation probability for each day based on the values for each day calculated by the division. (G) Based on the visit information, within the predetermined period, calculate a correction value by summing the probabilities corresponding to the days on which the visitors visited.

[0051] An example of displaying the number of visitors per day information in a calendar format is shown on the left side of (1) in FIG. 5A. Note that this is an example, and the number of visitors per day information is not limited to being displayed in a calendar format. First, the correction value calculation unit 15 executes the process of (A) as shown in (1) of FIG. 5A, for example. Next, the correction value calculation unit 15 executes the process of (B) as shown in (2) of FIG. 5A, for example. The numerical values for each day calculated by the process of (B) are shown on the left side of (2) in FIG. 5A.

[0052] Next, the correction value calculation unit 15 executes the processes of (C) to (E), for example. In this example, to make each numerical value fall within the range of 0 to 1, "1" is subtracted from each numerical value, and each numerical value is divided by the maximum value of the numerical values, which is "1.33". The numerical values for each day calculated by the process of (C) are shown in (3) of FIG. 5B. Next, the correction value calculation unit 15 executes the process of (F), for example. In other words, the process of (F) can also be said to multiply the value for each day calculated by the division by 100. The event implementation probability for each day calculated by the process of (F) is shown in (4) of FIG. 5B. In this example, as shown in the figure, it can be understood by the correction value calculation unit 15 that the probability of the event being implemented is high on the 11th and 20th within the period in which the number of visitors per day information is recorded.

[0053] Next, the correction value calculation unit 15 executes the process of (G), for example. The visit days of visitors A and B are shown using their respective icons on the left side of (5) in FIG. 5C. Also, the correction value obtained by summing the event implementation probabilities for the respective visit days of visitor A and visitor B is shown on the right side of (5) in FIG. 5C (correction value for visitor A: 68%, correction value for visitor B: 218%).

[0054] Then, as shown in (6) of FIG. 5D, the participation intention estimation unit 14 estimates the intention using a numerical value obtained by multiplying the coefficient of variation of the visitor by the correction value of the same visitor (also referred to as the corrected coefficient of variation).

[0055] FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of processing related to notification. The notification unit 17, for example, as shown on the left side of FIG. 6, notifies the event holding notice that only the minimum necessary items are described to those who have no intention of participating, that is, those who are not interested in the event. On the other hand, the notification unit 17, for example, as shown on the right side of FIG. 6, notifies the event holding notice including additional information such as photos and text to those who have the intention of participating, that is, those who are interested in the event, in addition to the minimum necessary items. In this way, the notification unit 17 may change the content of the message to be notified depending on whether the person is interested in the event or not. Also, for the visitors who have the intention of participating, an event holding notice that stimulates their intention of participation can be notified. Further, for the visitors who have no intention of participating, by notifying a simple message, it is possible to encourage the visitors to participate in the event without giving them discomfort.

[0056] [Embodiment 3] The program of the present embodiment is a program for causing a computer to execute each step of the method of the present invention as a procedure. In the present invention, "procedure" may be read as "processing". Also, the program of the present embodiment may be recorded on, for example, a computer-readable recording medium. The recording medium is not particularly limited, and examples include a read-only memory (ROM), a hard disk (HD), an optical disk, and the like.

[0057] As described above, the present invention has been described with reference to the embodiments, but the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments. Various changes that can be understood by those skilled in the art can be made to the configuration and details of the present invention within the scope of the present invention.

[0058] [Supplementary Note] Some or all of the above embodiments may be described as follows in the supplementary note, but are not limited thereto. (Appendix 1) It includes an acquisition unit, an arrival interval calculation unit, and a participation intention estimation unit, The acquisition unit acquires arrival information, The arrival information is information that associates identification information indicating each individual visitor with time information indicating the time when the visitor arrived at an arbitrary location, The arrival interval calculation unit calculates the arrival interval for each visitor based on the arrival information, The participation intention estimation unit is a participation intention estimation device that estimates the intention of the visitor to participate in the event based on the arrival interval. (Appendix 2) Furthermore, it includes a coefficient of variation calculation unit, The arrival interval calculation unit calculates the average value and standard deviation of the arrival interval for each visitor based on the arrival information, The coefficient of variation calculation unit calculates the coefficient of variation related to the arrival for each visitor by dividing the standard deviation by the average value of the arrival interval, The participation intention estimation unit estimates the intention using the coefficient of variation, which is the participation intention estimation device described in Appendix 1. (Appendix 3) The participation intention estimation unit described in Appendix 2 estimates that the visitors who fall into a preset number in descending order of the coefficient of variation among a plurality of visitors have the intention. (Appendix 4) The participation intention estimation unit described in Appendix 2 or 3 estimates that the visitors having a coefficient of variation equal to or greater than a preset threshold value have the intention. (Appendix 5) Furthermore, it includes a correction value calculation unit, The acquisition unit acquires the number of daily visitors information, The number of daily visitors information is information that records the number of daily visitors to the arbitrary location within a predetermined period, The correction value calculation unit calculates the event implementation probability for each day using the number of daily visitors information, and based on the arrival information, the sum of the event implementation probabilities corresponding to the days when the visitors arrived within the predetermined period is used as the correction value, The participation willingness estimation unit estimates the willingness based on the visit interval and the correction value, and is a participation willingness estimation device according to any one of Appendices 1 to 4. (Appendix 6) Furthermore, it includes a recording unit, The recording unit records the visit information, and is a participation willingness estimation device according to any one of Appendices 1 to 5. (Appendix 7) Furthermore, it includes a notification unit, The notification unit notifies each visitor of an event holding notice with different contents according to the degree of the willingness, and is a participation willingness estimation device according to any one of Appendices 1 to 6. (Appendix 8) It includes an acquisition step, a visit interval calculation step, and a participation willingness estimation step. The acquisition step acquires visit information. The visit information is information that associates identification information indicating an individual visitor with time information indicating the time when the visitor visited an arbitrary place. The visit interval calculation step calculates the visit interval for each visitor based on the visit information. The participation willingness estimation step estimates the willingness of the visitor to participate in the event based on the visit interval, and is a participation willingness estimation method. (Appendix 9) Furthermore, it includes a coefficient of variation calculation step. The visit interval calculation step calculates the average value and the standard deviation of the visit interval for each visitor based on the visit information. The coefficient of variation calculation step calculates the coefficient of variation related to the visit for each visitor by dividing the standard deviation by the average value of the visit interval. The participation willingness estimation step estimates the willingness using the coefficient of variation, and is a participation willingness estimation method according to Appendix 8. (Appendix 10) The participation willingness estimation step estimates that there is the willingness for the visitors who fall within a preset number in descending order of the coefficient of variation among a plurality of visitors, and is a participation willingness estimation method according to Appendix 9. (Appendix 11) The participation intention estimation step is the participation intention estimation method according to Appendix 9 or 10, which estimates that the visitor having the coefficient of variation equal to or higher than a preset threshold has the intention. (Appendix 12) Furthermore, it includes a correction value calculation step. The acquisition step acquires the number of daily visitors' information. The number of daily visitors' information is information recording the number of daily visitors to any location within a predetermined period. The correction value calculation step calculates the event implementation probability daily using the number of daily visitors' information, and based on the visit information, within the predetermined period, the sum of the event implementation probabilities corresponding to the days when the visitor visited is set as the correction value. The participation intention estimation step estimates the intention based on the visit interval and the correction value, which is the participation intention estimation method according to any one of Appendices 8 to 11. (Appendix 13) Furthermore, it includes a recording step. The recording step records the visit information, which is the participation intention estimation method according to any one of Appendices 8 to 12. (Appendix 14) Furthermore, it includes a notification step. The notification step notifies each visitor of an event holding notice with different contents according to the degree of the intention, which is the participation intention estimation method according to any one of Appendices 8 to 13. (Appendix 15) A program for causing a computer to execute a procedure including an acquisition procedure, a visit interval calculation procedure, and a participation intention estimation procedure: The acquisition procedure acquires visit information. The visit information is information associating identification information indicating an individual visitor and time information indicating the time when the visitor visited an arbitrary location. The visit interval calculation procedure calculates the visit interval for each visitor based on the visit information. The participation intention estimation procedure estimates the intention of the visitor to participate in the event based on the visit interval. (Appendix 16) Furthermore, it includes a coefficient of variation calculation procedure. Based on the visit information, the visit interval calculation procedure calculates the average value and standard deviation of the visit intervals for each visitor, The coefficient of variation calculation procedure calculates the coefficient of variation for each visitor regarding the visit by dividing the standard deviation by the average value of the visit intervals, The willingness to participate estimation procedure is the program described in Appendix 15 that estimates the willingness using the coefficient of variation. (Appendix 17) The willingness to participate estimation procedure is the program described in Appendix 16 that estimates that the visitors who fall into a preset number from the ones with the largest coefficient of variation among multiple visitors have the willingness. (Appendix 18) The willingness to participate estimation procedure is the program described in Appendix 16 or 17 that estimates that the visitors with a coefficient of variation equal to or greater than a preset threshold value have the willingness. (Appendix 19) Furthermore, it includes a correction value calculation procedure, The acquisition procedure acquires the number of daily visitors information, The number of daily visitors information is the information recording the number of daily visitors to the arbitrary location within a predetermined period, The correction value calculation procedure calculates the event implementation probability daily using the number of daily visitors information, and based on the visit information, the sum of the event implementation probabilities corresponding to the days when the visitors visited within the predetermined period is used as the correction value, The willingness to participate estimation procedure estimates the willingness based on the visit interval and the correction value, and is the program described in any of Appendices 15 to 18. (Appendix 20) Furthermore, it includes a recording procedure, The recording procedure records the visit information, and is the program described in any of Appendices 15 to 19. (Appendix 21) Furthermore, it includes a notification procedure, The notification procedure notifies each visitor of event holding announcements with different contents according to the degree of the willingness, and is the program described in any of Appendices 15 to 20. (Appendix 22) A computer-readable recording medium that records a program according to any one of Appendices 15 to 21.

Industrial Applicability

[0059] According to the present invention, it is possible to estimate people's willingness to participate in an event. Therefore, the present invention is useful, for example, when promoting participation in an event.

Explanation of Signs

[0060] 10 Willingness to Participate Estimation Device 11 Acquisition Unit 12 Arrival Interval Calculation Unit 13 Coefficient of Variation Calculation Unit 14 Willingness to Participate Estimation Unit 15 Correction Value Calculation Unit 16 Recording Unit 17 Notification Unit 101 Central Processing Unit 102 Memory 103 Bus 104 Storage Device 105 Input Device 106 Display Device 107 Communication Device

Claims

1. comprising an acquisition unit, a visit interval calculation unit, a coefficient of variation calculation unit, and a participation intention estimation unit, wherein the acquisition unit acquires visit information, the visit information is information associating identification information indicating individual visitors with time information indicating the time when the visitors visited an arbitrary location, the visit interval calculation unit calculates the visit interval for each visitor based on the visit information, the visit interval calculation unit calculates the average value and standard deviation of the visit intervals for each visitor based on the visit information, the coefficient of variation calculation unit calculates the coefficient of variation regarding the visits for each visitor by dividing the standard deviation by the average value of the visit intervals, the participation intention estimation unit estimates the intention of the visitors to participate in an event using the coefficient of variation, the participation intention estimation unit estimates that the visitors who fall within a preset number in descending order of the coefficient of variation among a plurality of visitors have the said intention, A participation intention estimation device.

2. The participation intention estimation unit according to claim 1, wherein the participation intention estimation unit estimates that the visitors having a coefficient of variation equal to or greater than a preset threshold value have the said intention.

3. further comprising a correction value calculation unit, wherein the acquisition unit acquires the daily visitor number information, the daily visitor number information is information recording the number of visitors to the arbitrary location each day within a predetermined period, the correction value calculation unit calculates the event implementation probability daily using the daily visitor number information, and based on the visit information, sets, as a correction value, the total value of the event implementation probabilities corresponding to the days when the visitors visited within the predetermined period, the participation intention estimation unit estimates the said intention using the coefficient of variation calculated by arithmetic operations based on the visit interval and the correction value, The participation intention estimation device according to claim 1 or 2.

4. further comprising a recording unit, wherein the recording unit records the visit information, and the participation intention estimation device according to any one of claims 1 to 3.

5. further comprising a notification unit, wherein the notification unit notifies each visitor of event holding announcements with different contents according to the degree of the said intention, and the participation intention estimation device according to any one of claims 1 to 4.

6. including an acquisition step, a visit interval calculation step, a coefficient of variation calculation step, and a participation intention estimation step, wherein the acquisition step acquires visit information, The arrival information is information that associates identification information indicating individual visitors with time information indicating the time when the visitors arrived at an arbitrary location. The arrival interval calculation step calculates the arrival interval for each visitor based on the arrival information. The arrival interval calculation step calculates the average value and standard deviation of the arrival intervals for each visitor based on the arrival information. The coefficient of variation calculation step calculates the coefficient of variation related to the arrivals for each visitor by dividing the standard deviation by the average value of the arrival intervals. The participation intention estimation step estimates the intention of the visitors to participate in the event using the coefficient of variation. The participation intention estimation step estimates that the intention exists for the visitors who fall within a preset number in descending order of the coefficient of variation among a plurality of visitors. A method for estimating participation intention, wherein each of the above steps is executed by a computer.

7. The participation intention estimation step estimates that the intention exists for the visitors having a coefficient of variation equal to or greater than a preset threshold value. The method for estimating participation intention according to claim 6.

8. A program for causing a computer to execute a procedure including an acquisition procedure, an arrival interval calculation procedure, a coefficient of variation calculation procedure, and a participation intention estimation procedure: The acquisition procedure acquires arrival information. The arrival information is information that associates identification information indicating individual visitors with time information indicating the time when the visitors arrived at an arbitrary location. The arrival interval calculation procedure calculates the arrival interval for each visitor based on the arrival information. The arrival interval calculation procedure calculates the average value and standard deviation of the arrival intervals for each visitor based on the arrival information. The coefficient of variation calculation procedure calculates the coefficient of variation related to the arrivals for each visitor by dividing the standard deviation by the average value of the arrival intervals. The participation intention estimation procedure estimates the intention of the visitors to participate in the event using the coefficient of variation. The participation intention estimation procedure estimates that the intention exists for the visitors who fall within a preset number in descending order of the coefficient of variation among a plurality of visitors.

Images