Photovoltaic power generation output estimation device, grid control system, supply and demand control system, facility formation support system, photovoltaic power generation output estimation method, and photovoltaic power generation output estimation program

Abstract

To obtain a solar power generation output estimation device capable of improving the accuracy of estimating the power generation output of a solar power generation facility.SOLUTION: A supply and demand control system includes an estimation unit 150 that estimates the solar power generation output to be estimated, which is the power generation output of a solar power generation facility to be estimated by using solar radiation intensity data indicating solar radiation intensity and residual demand, which is the sum of the power consumption and solar power output at a customer where the solar power generation facility is installed, and an estimation accuracy verification unit 140 that determines whether the estimation accuracy of the solar power generation output to be estimated satisfies a predetermined accuracy using correlation information indicating the correlation between solar radiation intensity data and residual demand.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present disclosure relates to a photovoltaic power generation output estimation device that estimates the power generation output of a photovoltaic power generation facility, a grid control system, a supply and demand control system, a facility formation support system, a photovoltaic power generation output estimation method, and a photovoltaic power generation output estimation program. [Background technology]

[0002] In recent years, the importance of expanding the use of renewable energy has been growing, and an increasing number of consumers are installing distributed power sources such as solar power generation facilities and supplying electricity to transmission or distribution systems (hereinafter referred to as power systems). Meanwhile, electric power companies and other organizations that operate power systems are aware of the power output of some solar power generation facilities, but are unable to grasp the power output of many solar power generation facilities. For this reason, devices that estimate the power output of solar power generation facilities installed by each consumer have been proposed (see, for example, Patent Document 1). Note that the above-mentioned solar power generation facilities whose power output can be grasped are those that are subject to a contract under the Total Power Purchase Scheme (hereinafter also referred to as a Total Power Purchase Contract), and solar power generation facilities whose power output cannot be grasped are those that are subject to a contract under the Surplus Power Purchase Scheme (hereinafter also referred to as a Surplus Power Purchase Contract). This is because consumers who own solar power generation facilities that are subject to full purchase agreements are equipped with separate smart meters that measure the amount of electricity generated by the solar power generation facilities and the amount of electricity consumed by the load within the consumer, whereas consumers who own solar power generation facilities that are subject to surplus purchase agreements are equipped with only a smart meter that measures the combined amount of electricity generated by the solar power generation facilities and the amount of electricity consumed by the load.

[0003] Patent Document 1 discloses a technology for estimating the power generation output of a solar power generation facility of a consumer (hereinafter also referred to as a surplus purchase consumer) that owns a solar power generation facility that is the subject of a surplus purchase contract. The solar power generation output estimation device described in Patent Document 1 estimates the power generation output of the power generation facility of the surplus purchase consumer by using the measurement value of a smart meter that measures the power consumption of the load of the surplus purchase consumer and the measurement value of a smart meter that measures the power generation amount of a solar power generation facility that is the subject of a full purchase contract and is installed within a predetermined distance from the solar power generation facility of the surplus purchase consumer. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Publication No. 2020-191764 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] When a large number of solar power generation facilities are introduced in a situation where electric power companies and other parties are unable to grasp the power generation output of many solar power generation facilities, various problems arise in the operation of the power grid. Although electric power companies and other parties can measure the power consumption of the apparent power grid load (hereinafter referred to as the apparent load) that takes into account the power generation output of the solar power generation facilities at their substations and other facilities using meters, they are unable to accurately grasp the power consumption of the actual load (hereinafter referred to as the actual load) because the total power generation output of all solar power generation facilities connected to the power grid is unknown. For this reason, when a large number of solar power generation facilities are introduced, there is an increased risk in supply and demand control, as the prediction error in the power consumption of the actual load, which is predicted using multiple regression analysis and other methods, becomes large, and there is an increased risk in system control, as restoration operations after a grid accident are hindered.

[0006] Therefore, it is necessary to accurately estimate the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility. However, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device of Patent Document 1 estimates the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility of the surplus purchase consumer to be estimated under the assumption that the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility of the total purchase consumer is directly proportional to the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility of the total purchase consumer. Therefore, under conditions where this assumption does not hold, there is a problem that the estimation error of the power generation output may become large.

[0007] The present disclosure has been made in view of the above, and has an object to provide a photovoltaic power generation output estimation device that can improve the accuracy of estimating the power generation output of a photovoltaic power generation facility. [Means for solving the problem]

[0008] In order to solve the above-mentioned problems and achieve the objective, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to the present disclosure includes an estimation unit that estimates the photovoltaic power generation output to be estimated, which is the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility to be estimated, using solar irradiance intensity data indicating solar irradiance intensity and residual demand, which is the sum of the power consumption and the photovoltaic power generation output at the consumer where the photovoltaic power generation facility is installed, and an estimation accuracy verification unit that determines whether the estimation accuracy of the photovoltaic power generation output to be estimated satisfies a specified accuracy using correlation information indicating the correlation between the solar irradiance intensity data and the residual demand. [Effects of the Invention]

[0009] The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to the present disclosure has the effect of improving the accuracy of estimating the power generation output of a photovoltaic power generation facility. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0010] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of a power system control system according to a first embodiment. [Figure 2] A block diagram showing an example of a functional configuration of a system control system according to a first embodiment. [Figure 3] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of a computer system that realizes a photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to a first embodiment. [Figure 4]1 is a flowchart showing an example of a procedure for estimating a power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device according to the first embodiment; [Figure 5] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of ratios for each combination of photovoltaic power generation facilities stored in a storage unit according to the first embodiment; [Figure 6] 1 is a flowchart showing an example of a ratio calculation process according to the first embodiment. [Figure 7] 1 is a flowchart showing an example of a process for estimating a photovoltaic power generation output of a second photovoltaic power generation facility according to the first embodiment. [Figure 8] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of a verification result of the method for estimating power generation output according to the first embodiment. [Figure 9] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of a verification result of the power generation output estimation method according to the first embodiment when the estimation accuracy is not verified. [Figure 10] A diagram showing an example of a scatter plot of the correlation coefficient and the estimation error of the second solar power generation output. [Figure 11] 10 is a flowchart showing an example of a processing procedure for estimating a power generation output by a photovoltaic power generation output estimating device according to a second embodiment. [Figure 12] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of a system control system according to a third embodiment. [Figure 13] 10 is a flowchart showing an example of a processing procedure for estimating a power generation output by a photovoltaic power generation output estimating device according to a third embodiment. [Figure 14] 10 is a flowchart showing an example of a ratio calculation process according to the third embodiment. [Figure 15] 10 is a flowchart showing an example of a process for estimating a photovoltaic power generation output of a second photovoltaic power generation facility according to a third embodiment. [Figure 16] 10 is a flowchart showing an example of a processing procedure for estimating a power generation output by a photovoltaic power generation output estimating device according to a fourth embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0011] A photovoltaic power generation output estimation device, a grid control system, a supply and demand control system, a facility formation support system, a photovoltaic power generation output estimation method, and a photovoltaic power generation output estimation program according to embodiments will be described in detail below with reference to the drawings.

[0012] Embodiment 1 Fig. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of a power grid control system according to a first embodiment. A power grid control system 10 of this embodiment includes a photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100, a control device 300, and smart meters (abbreviated as SM (Smart Meter) in the figure) 203-205, which are various measuring devices installed under a plurality of consumers, and a measuring device 206. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100, the smart meters 203-205, and the measuring device 206 are connected via a communication network 50. In Fig. 1, solid lines represent the flow of power, and dashed lines represent the flow of information.

[0013] FIG. 1 illustrates multiple consumers, including consumer 200-1, consumer 200-2, consumer 200-3, consumer 200-4, . . . , consumer 200-m, . . . , and consumer 200-n. Each of consumers 200-1 to 200-n is connected to a load 201 and a photovoltaic power generation facility (abbreviated as PV (PhotoVoltaic) in the figure). Note that, in the example illustrated in FIG. 1, n is an integer equal to or greater than 6, and m is an integer equal to or greater than 5 and less than n, but the values ​​of n and m are not limited to the example illustrated in FIG. 1. Furthermore, load 201 of each consumer 200-1 to 200-n represents one or more facilities that consume power, and the specific facilities that constitute load 201 do not need to be the same for all consumers 200-1 to 200-n. Similarly, the specific specifications of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 do not need to be the same for all of the customers 200-1 to 200-n.

[0014] The photovoltaic power generation facility 202 installed at the customer 200-1 is a photovoltaic power generation facility subject to a full purchase contract. The photovoltaic power generation facilities 202 installed at the customers 200-2 to 200-n are photovoltaic power generation facilities subject to a surplus purchase contract.

[0015] The photovoltaic power generation facilities 202 are photovoltaic power generation facilities installed, for example, on the roofs of buildings owned by the consumers 200-1 to 200-n, and include not only small-scale photovoltaic power generation facilities but also large-scale photovoltaic power plants such as so-called mega solar power plants. The photovoltaic power generation facilities 202 are connected to a power grid 20 connected to an upper level grid 30, and supply the generated power to the power grid 20. As shown in FIG. 1 , loads 201 of the consumers 200-1 to 200-n are connected to the power grid 20. The loads 201 receive power from the power grid 20 and consume the power. The power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facilities 202 may also be consumed by the loads 201 in the consumers 200-1 to 200-n that own the photovoltaic power generation facilities 202.

[0016] Consumers 200-1 to 200-n, each equipped with load 201 and solar power generation facility 202, receive power supply from power grid 20 and supply power generated by solar power generation facility 202 to power grid 20. Therefore, the apparent power consumption of each consumer 200-1 to 200-n as viewed from power grid 20 depends on both the actual power consumption of load 201 and the power output of solar power generation facility 202. Note that when the power consumption of load 201 is exceeded by the power output of solar power generation facility 202, the power output of the consumer is supplied to power grid 20 from the perspective of power grid 20, and therefore the apparent power consumption becomes a negative value. Hereinafter, the apparent power consumption of each consumer 200-1 to 200-n as viewed from power grid 20 is referred to as residual demand.

[0017] The consumers 200-2 to 200-n that have concluded a surplus purchase contract are each equipped with a smart meter 205. When i is an arbitrary integer from 2 to n, the smart meter 205 of the consumer 200-i measures the power generation output P PVi (t) and the power consumption P by the load 201 LiThe smart meter 205 measures the power obtained by adding up the power consumption (t) and the power consumption (t). That is, the power measured by the smart meter 205 is the residual demand described above, and is the amount obtained by subtracting the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 from the power consumption of the load 201 for each of the consumers 200-2 to 200-n. The measurement data of the residual demand measured by the smart meter 205 is sent to the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 via the communication network 25 and the communication network 50.

[0018] For example, in the customer 200-2, the smart meter 205 measures the power generation output P PV2 (t) and the power consumption P by the load 201 L2 The sum of the residual demand and the smart meter 205 (t) is measured and recorded as the residual demand. Then, the smart meter 205 transmits the measurement data of the residual demand of the consumer 200-2 to the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100 via the communication network 25 and the communication network 50. In this way, the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100 acquires the measurement data of the residual demand, which is the measurement value of the smart meter 205 installed in the consumers 200-2 to 200-n that own the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 that is the subject of the surplus purchase contract. The measurement value of the smart meter 205 is also referred to as the SM metered value hereinafter.

[0019] In addition, the customer 200-3 receives the power generation output P PV3 The measuring instrument 206 may be a part of a device such as a power conditioner that controls the photovoltaic power generation facility 202, or may be a separately provided measuring instrument. The measuring instrument 206 measures the measured power generation output P PV3 The measurement data (t) is sent to the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 via the communication network 25 and the communication network 50. Here, an example will be described in which the measuring instrument 206 is installed in the consumer 200-3, but the number of consumers among the consumers 200-2 to 200-n that are installed with the measuring instrument 206 may be zero or more.

[0020] A consumer 200-1 that has concluded a full purchase contract is equipped with a smart meter 203 and a smart meter 204. The smart meter 203 measures the power consumption P L1 The smart meter 204 measures and records the power generation output P (t) of the solar power generation facility 202 of the customer 200-1. PV1 The measurement data of the power output of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 of the customer 200-1 measured by the smart meter 204 is sent to the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100 via the communication network 25 and the communication network 50. In this way, the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100 estimates the power output P PV1 The measurement data of the smart meter 203 is also sent to the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100 via the communication network 25 and the communication network 50. At least one of the smart meter 203 and the smart meter 204, or a device not shown in the figure instead of these devices, may measure (or calculate) the apparent power consumption, which is the sum of the measurement data of the smart meter 203 and the measurement data of the smart meter 204, that is, the residual demand, and transmit the measured (or calculated) residual demand to the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100. It is not essential that the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100 acquires the measurement (calculation) data of the residual demand of the consumer 200-1 with whom a full purchase contract has been concluded. However, if this measurement (calculation) data is acquired, this measurement (calculation) data can be used to optimize the value of the threshold value u, which will be described later.

[0021] As described above, among the consumers 200-1 to 200-n, for the consumers 200-1 and 200-3, measurement data of the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 can be obtained by the smart meter 204 or the measuring instrument 206. Because the smart meter 204 can be considered to be part of the measuring instrument, both the consumers 200-1 and 200-3 are consumers from which measurement data of the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 can be obtained. On the other hand, for the consumers among the consumers 200-1 to 200-n that do not have either the smart meter 204 or the measuring instrument 206, although the residual demand added up with the power consumption is measured, the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 is not directly measured, making it difficult to accurately determine the power generation output. In this embodiment, a method will be described in which the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 accurately estimates the power generation output of a consumer that does not have either the smart meter 204 or the measuring instrument 206, using at least one of the consumers 200-1 and 200-3. Hereinafter, the photovoltaic power generation facilities of consumers 200-1 and 200-3 used as a reference in estimating power output will also be referred to as first photovoltaic power generation facilities, and the photovoltaic power generation facilities that are the targets of power output estimation will also be referred to as second photovoltaic power generation facilities.

[0022] The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 estimates a second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power generation output of a second photovoltaic power generation facility at a predetermined time point (hereinafter referred to as the estimation time point), using a first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of a first photovoltaic power generation facility. The estimation time point includes not only the present time point but also a past or future time point. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 may be realized by a general-purpose computer system such as a personal computer executing a program, or may be realized by a dedicated computer system. A detailed configuration of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 will be described later. Note that the combination of the first photovoltaic power generation facility and the second photovoltaic power generation facility may be determined so that the distance between the first photovoltaic power generation facility and the second photovoltaic power generation facility is equal to or less than a predetermined value, or there may be no restriction on the distance between the first photovoltaic power generation facility and the second photovoltaic power generation facility. The predetermined value described above is, for example, several kilometers, but is not limited to this.

[0023] The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 transmits the estimated photovoltaic power generation output to the control device 300. The control device 300 uses the power generation output estimated by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 to control current and voltage using, for example, a control device for a power system or a distributed power source.

[0024] 1 shows an example in which the power generation output estimated by the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100 is used for system control, but the power generation output estimated by the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100 may be used for, for example, supply and demand control, facility formation, etc. Furthermore, the power generation output estimated by the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100 may be used for controlling a VPP (Virtual Power Plant) or DR (Demand Response), or may be used for energy management at a consumer's facility.

[0025] When the power generation output estimated by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 is used for supply and demand control, a supply and demand control system including the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 includes a supply and demand control device instead of the control device 300 shown in FIG. 1. The supply and demand control device controls the supply and demand of electricity using the power generation output estimated by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100. When the power generation output estimated by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 is used to support facility formation, a facility formation support system including the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 includes a status management device that manages the state of the power system instead of the control device 300. The status management device manages the state of the power system using the power generation output estimated by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 and supports facility formation by presenting the state of the power system to an operator.

[0026] Next, the function of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 will be described. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 estimates a second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 of the consumer to be estimated, using a first photovoltaic power generation output serving as a reference and the residual demand of the consumer to be estimated. The first photovoltaic power generation output is the power generation output of the first photovoltaic power generation facility. The second photovoltaic power generation output is the power generation output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility, which is the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 to be estimated. Hereinafter, the consumer to which the first photovoltaic power generation facility is installed will be referred to as the first consumer, and the consumer to which the second photovoltaic power generation facility is installed will be referred to as the second consumer. Note that the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 and the power consumption of the load 201 include active power and reactive power. Because general photovoltaic power generation facilities, particularly residential photovoltaic power generation facilities, operate at a constant power factor, it is possible to easily estimate reactive power by estimating active power. Therefore, the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 and the power consumption of the load 201 described below will refer to active power.

[0027] Here, an overview of a method for estimating the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 in the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 will be described. Here, the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 of consumer 200-2 will be used as an example of a target for power generation output estimation, and the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 of consumer 200-1 will be used as an example of a photovoltaic power generation output used as a reference in the estimation. That is, in this example, the first photovoltaic power generation output is the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 of consumer 200-1, and the second photovoltaic power generation output to be estimated is the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 of consumer 200-2. Note that even when the target for estimation is the power generation output of each of the photovoltaic power generation facilities 202 of consumers 200-4 to 200-n, i.e., when the second photovoltaic power generation output is the power generation output of each of the photovoltaic power generation facilities 202 of consumers 200-4 to 200-n, the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 can be similarly estimated by using a value corresponding to each consumer as the residual demand. In addition, the second solar power generation output can also be estimated in the same way when the power generation output of the solar power generation equipment 202 of the customer 200-3, i.e., the power generation output measured by the measuring instrument 206, is used as the first solar power generation output, which is the solar power generation output used as a reference, instead of the power generation output of the solar power generation equipment 202 of the customer 200-1.

[0028] The residual demand of the second consumer, consumer 200-2, is P2(t), and the power consumption of the load 201 of consumer 200-2 is P L2 (t), the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 of the consumer 200-2, which is the second photovoltaic power generation output, is P PV2 The power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 of the first consumer 200-1, i.e., the first photovoltaic power generation output, is denoted as P PV1 (t). In this case, the equation for P2(t) holds as in the following equation (1), and furthermore, as in equation (2), P PV2 We can assume an equation for (t).

[0029]

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[0030]

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[0031] Here, α is the ratio between the first solar power generation output and the second solar power generation output, and is a coefficient for converting the first solar power generation output into the second solar power generation output. 12 (t) is the time disturbance. τ s is the delay time, that is, the time it takes for the solar radiation fluctuation to propagate between the installation point of the second solar power generation facility and the installation point of the first solar power generation facility.

[0032] And P L2 (t) and ε 12 (t) fluctuations are, respectively, P PV1 Assuming that there is no correlation with fluctuations in (t) and that temporal stationarity holds in the above equations (1) and (2), the following equation (3) can be derived from the above equations (1) and (2).

[0033]

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[0034] Here, Cov t [] means the operator that calculates the covariance function of two quantities, and Cov in the above equation (3) t [P PV1 (t),P PV1 (t+τ+τ s )] is τ = -τ s Therefore, the covariance function Cov of the time series data between the output of the first solar power plant and the residual demand of the second consumer is t [P PV1 The time lag when [(t),P2(t+τ)] is at its minimum (the sign is "-" and the absolute value is maximum) multiplied by -1 is the delay time τ s is.

[0035] Furthermore, when τ=0 is substituted into the above equation (3), the following equation (4) is obtained.

[0036]

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[0037] Then, by transforming the above equation (4) into the following equation (5), an estimated value of the ratio α can be obtained.

[0038]

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[0039] Cov t [P PV1 (t),P2(t)] is the first solar power generation output P PV1 (t) and the residual demand P2(t), and this covariance is called the first covariance. Cov t [P PV1 (t),P PV1 (t+τ s )] is the delay time τ s The two offset primary solar power generation outputs, P PV1 (t) and P PV1 (t+τ s ) and this autocovariance is called the second covariance. And α is the first covariance Cov t [P PV1 (t),P2(t)] is the second covariance Cov t [P PV1 (t),P PV1 (t+τ s )] and multiplying by -1.

[0040] Also, ε 12 Assuming that (t) is small and can be ignored, the following equation (6), which is an approximate equation for the second photovoltaic power generation output, can be obtained from the above equation (2).

[0041]

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[0042] The photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100 of this embodiment estimates the second photovoltaic power generation output using the estimation method described above. That is, the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100 calculates the first and second covariances described above and calculates an estimate of the ratio α using the calculated first and second covariances according to Equation (5). The process of calculating the ratio α only needs to be performed before the estimation time point, which is the time to be estimated for the second photovoltaic power generation output. However, if the estimation time point is in the past, the process may be performed from the estimation time point, which is in the future, to the present. As described above, the calculation of the ratio α uses time-series data of each measurement data, so measurement data over a certain period of time is required. This period is set to a range before the estimation time point but not too far from the estimation time point. For example, this period is any period between the estimation time point when the second photovoltaic power generation output is estimated and a period approximately one to two weeks prior. For example, the process of calculating the estimate of the ratio α is performed on the day before the day when the second photovoltaic power generation output is estimated, but the timing of the process of calculating the estimate of the ratio α is not limited to this example. Then, the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100 calculates the estimated value of the ratio α by subtracting a delay time τ from the estimation time point t. s The first solar power generation output P at the time of the shift PV1 (t+τ s ) to obtain the second solar power generation output P PV2 An estimate of (t) can be calculated.

[0043] Delay time τ s may be approximated to 0, in which case the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 calculates the first photovoltaic power generation output P PV1 By multiplying (t), the second solar power generation output P PV2 An estimate of (t) can be calculated.

[0044] In the above calculation method, it is assumed that the above formula (2) holds, but there are cases where this assumption does not hold. For example, the above assumption may not hold if there is a mountain between the first solar power generation facility and the second solar power generation facility, or if a temporary shadow is cast on at least one of the first solar power generation facility and the second solar power generation facility, or if the clouds passing over the first solar power generation facility and the second solar power generation facility are different due to changes in clouds or wind direction, causing the solar power generation outputs of the two facilities to be disproportional. In such cases, the estimation accuracy of the ratio α decreases, and the second solar power generation output P PV2 Therefore, if the above assumption is not met, the estimation accuracy of the second photovoltaic power generation output P PV2 It is expected that the estimation accuracy of (t) will decrease, and it can be said that this condition is not suitable for estimating the ratio α.

[0045] In this embodiment, the estimated value of α under the condition where the estimation accuracy of the ratio α is reduced is the second photovoltaic power generation output P PV2 To avoid using the ratio α for estimating (t), the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100 verifies the estimation accuracy of the ratio α, and does not adopt the estimated ratio α if it is determined that the estimation accuracy will decrease. For example, as will be described later, when an initial value of the ratio α is determined in advance and a process for calculating the ratio α is performed, the ratio α is updated with the value of the ratio α estimated by the process. However, if it is determined that the period is not suitable for estimating the ratio α, the process for calculating the ratio α is not performed or the ratio α is not updated with the value calculated by the process for calculating the ratio α.

[0046] Specifically, the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100 estimates the first photovoltaic power generation output P PV1 Calculate the correlation coefficient ρ between the value obtained by multiplying (t) by -1 (minus 1) and the residual demand of the second consumer, P2(t). The correlation coefficient ρ is calculated based on the first solar power generation output P PV1 (t) and residual demand P2(t+τ s) is an example of correlation information indicating a correlation with the second photovoltaic power generation output (the second photovoltaic power generation output). That is, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 calculates the correlation coefficient ρ by the following formula (7). Then, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 evaluates the estimation accuracy of the ratio α depending on whether the calculated correlation coefficient ρ is equal to or greater than a threshold. In detail, when the correlation coefficient ρ is equal to or greater than the threshold, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 determines that the estimation accuracy of the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power generation output to be estimated, satisfies the specified accuracy, and when the correlation coefficient ρ is less than the threshold, it determines that the estimation accuracy of the photovoltaic power generation output to be estimated does not satisfy the specified accuracy. The threshold may be set to a value that is generally considered to have a high correlation, for example, 0.95, or may be set by the user based on data acquired for verification, or may be determined by machine learning or the like. The threshold will be described in detail later.

[0047]

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[0048] Furthermore, as described above, the combination of the first and second solar power generation facilities may not be appropriate, for example, if there is a mountain between the first and second solar power generation facilities. The above-described determination result of the estimation accuracy can also be used to determine whether the combination of the first and second solar power generation facilities is appropriate. In other words, the above-described determination result of the estimation accuracy can also be used to select an appropriate combination of the first and second solar power generation facilities.

[0049] For example, assuming that the above formula (2) holds, the closer the distance between the first and second solar power generation facilities, the more likely the above assumption is to hold. Therefore, as described above, a method of determining the combination of the first and second solar power generation facilities so that the distance between the first and second solar power generation facilities is within a predetermined distance can be considered. On the other hand, by using the results of determining the estimation accuracy of the ratio α and not adopting the ratio α when the correlation coefficient ρ is less than a threshold, an appropriate combination of the first and second solar power generation facilities can be selected without considering the distance between the first and second solar power generation facilities. When the distance between the first and second photovoltaic power generation facilities is not taken into consideration, for example, for each second photovoltaic power generation facility for which the power generation output is to be estimated, at least one of the photovoltaic power generation facilities 202 that are the subject of a full purchase contract and the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 that is measured by the measuring instrument 206 is determined as a candidate for the first photovoltaic power generation facility, and a correlation coefficient ρ is calculated for each candidate, and the candidate for which the correlation coefficient ρ is equal to or greater than a threshold value is selected as the first photovoltaic power generation facility. As a result, the second photovoltaic power generation output P PV2 (t) can be estimated with high accuracy. When there are multiple candidates whose correlation coefficient ρ is equal to or greater than a threshold, the candidate with the highest correlation coefficient ρ may be determined as the first solar power generation facility. Furthermore, when there are multiple candidates whose correlation coefficient ρ is equal to or greater than a threshold, the sum, average, median, or the like of the solar power generation outputs of the multiple candidates may be used as the first solar power generation output.

[0050] Furthermore, the first photovoltaic power generation facility corresponding to the second photovoltaic power generation facility may be determined based on both the distance and the correlation coefficient ρ. For example, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 may determine, as the first photovoltaic power generation facility corresponding to the second photovoltaic power generation facility, the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 that is the subject of a full-amount purchase contract and whose distance from the second photovoltaic power generation facility is within a predetermined distance and the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 that has the highest correlation coefficient ρ among the photovoltaic power generation facilities 202 measured by the measuring instrument 206.

[0051] Next, an example of the functional configuration of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 will be described. Fig. 2 is a block diagram showing an example of the functional configuration of the grid control system 10 according to this embodiment. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 is a device that estimates a second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 at the time of estimation. As shown in Fig. 2, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 includes a data acquisition unit 110, a first covariance calculation unit 120, a second covariance calculation unit 130, an estimation accuracy verification unit 140, an estimation unit 150, a display unit 160, an input reception unit 170, a storage unit 180, and an output unit 190.

[0052] The data acquiring unit 110 receives measurement data from the smart meters 203-205 and the meter 206 via the communication network 25 and the communication network 50, and stores the received measurement data in the storage unit 180. Specifically, the measurement data received from the smart meter 204 and the meter 206 is stored in the storage unit 180 as photovoltaic power generation output data 182, and the measurement data received from the smart meter 205 is stored in the storage unit 180 as residual demand data 183. These measurement data are associated with a time for each measurement value. Note that the time intervals between each measurement value of the measurement data stored in the storage unit 180 are, for example, 1 second, 10 seconds, 1 minute, 30 minutes, or 1 hour, but are not particularly limited to these and can be set to an appropriate value by the user. Furthermore, these measurement data are stored together with identification information of the consumers 200-1-200-n or identification information of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202. Furthermore, when the data acquisition unit 110 receives measurement data from the smart meter 203 and measurement data from the smart meter 204 of the consumer 200-1, it uses these measurement data to calculate the residual demand of the consumer 200-1 and stores it in the memory unit 180 as residual demand data 183.

[0053] Note that, here, an example is shown in which the photovoltaic power output estimating apparatus 100 acquires measurement data from the smart meters 203-205 and the measuring instrument 206 via the communication network 25 and the communication network 50, but the measurement data of the smart meters 203-205 may be collected by a so-called aggregation device or a head-end system, and transmitted from the collecting device to the photovoltaic power output estimating apparatus 100. That is, a device that collects measurement data may be present in the communication network 25 and the communication network 50, and the photovoltaic power output estimating apparatus 100 may acquire the measurement data from the device. Furthermore, the communication route between the photovoltaic power output estimating apparatus 100 and the smart meters 203-205 and the measuring instrument 206 is not limited to the example shown in FIGS. 1 and 2 , and the communication route through which the photovoltaic power output estimating apparatus 100 receives the measurement data from the measuring instrument 206 may be different from the communication route through which the photovoltaic power output estimating apparatus 100 receives the measurement data from the smart meters 203-205. Furthermore, the communication network between the photovoltaic power generation output estimating apparatus 100 and the smart meters 203-205 and the measuring instrument 206 does not have to be separated into the communication network 25 and the communication network 50. Furthermore, the photovoltaic power generation output estimating apparatus 100 may receive measurement data from the smart meters 203-205 via multiple communication routes.

[0054] The storage unit 180 stores the above-described photovoltaic power generation output data 182 and residual demand data 183, and also stores various data calculated in the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 as calculation data 185. The storage unit 180 also stores, for example, location information data 181 and ratio initial value data 184 input by a user via the input receiving unit 170. Note that the location information data 181 and ratio initial value data 184 may be transmitted from another device instead of being input via the input receiving unit 170, acquired by the data acquiring unit 110, and stored in the storage unit 180. The location information data 181 is location information data such as addresses or latitude and longitude of the consumers 200-1 to 200-n that own the photovoltaic power generation facilities 202.

[0055] The first covariance calculation unit 120 refers to the location information data 181 in the storage unit 180 and selects a first consumer whose distance from the second consumer, whose power generation output is to be estimated, is within a predetermined distance and has a solar power generation facility 202 that serves as a reference for estimation. As described above, the first consumer is consumer 200-1 whose solar power generation facility 202 is the subject of a full-amount purchase contract, or consumer 200-3 whose power generation output is measured by a meter 206. Note that, as described above, the first solar power generation facility corresponding to the second solar power generation facility, i.e., the first consumer corresponding to the second consumer, may be determined using the correlation coefficient ρ without taking distance into consideration. The first covariance calculation unit 120 calculates a first covariance that is the covariance between the first solar power generation output, which is the power generation output of the solar power generation facility 202 of the first consumer, and the residual demand of the second consumer, and stores the calculated first covariance in the storage unit 180 as calculation data 185. The consumer whose power generation output is to be estimated is, for example, consumer 200-2 as described above, but may also be consumers 200-4 to 200-n. All of consumers 200-2, 200-4 to 200-n may be subject to estimation in sequence, and estimation may be performed for each of consumers 200-2, 200-4 to 200-n, or if a total value is required, the total value may be estimated all at once.

[0056] The first covariance calculation unit 120 extracts and reads the first photovoltaic power generation output for the first period from the photovoltaic power generation output data 182 stored in the storage unit 180, and extracts and reads the second consumer's residual demand for the first period from the residual demand data 183 stored in the storage unit 180. The first period is, for example, a period of approximately 6 to 10 hours, preferably 8 hours, within a period approximately 1 to 2 weeks prior to the estimation time point. The first period is preferably a period during which the solar radiation intensity is high and the solar radiation intensity fluctuates greatly. However, in this embodiment, since the determination is made as to whether the first period is suitable for calculating the ratio α, even if the first period is selected regardless of the solar radiation intensity, even if a period of low solar radiation intensity or a period of small fluctuation in solar radiation intensity is set as the first period, the ratio α corresponding to the first period is not used, thereby preventing a decrease in the estimation accuracy of the ratio α. Therefore, the solar radiation intensity does not need to be taken into account when setting the first period. The first covariance calculation unit 120 calculates a first covariance, which is the covariance of the first photovoltaic power generation output and the residual demand of the second consumer in the first period, using the read-out first photovoltaic power generation output and the read-out residual demand of the second consumer, and stores the calculated data in the storage unit 180 as calculated data 185. Furthermore, the first covariance calculation unit 120 calculates a delay time τ s and stores the calculated data 185 in the storage unit 180. The first covariance calculation unit 120 calculates the delay time τ s may be approximated to 0 without being calculated.

[0057] The second covariance calculation unit 130 calculates the delay time τ s is extracted and read from the calculation data 185 in the storage unit 180, and the first photovoltaic power generation output in the first period and the delay time τ s The first photovoltaic power generation output in the shifted second period is extracted and read out from the photovoltaic power generation output data 182 in the storage unit 180. Then, the second covariance calculation unit 130 calculates the delay time τ sThe second covariance calculation unit 130 calculates a second covariance, which is the autocovariance of the two shifted first photovoltaic power generation outputs, and stores the calculated second covariance in the storage unit 180 as calculated data 185. In detail, the second covariance calculation unit 130 calculates the time series data of the first photovoltaic power generation output in the first period and the delay time τ s The second covariance calculation unit 130 then calculates a second covariance, which is the autocovariance of the time series data of the first photovoltaic power generation output in the first period and the time series data of the first photovoltaic power generation output in the second period, and stores the calculated second covariance in the storage unit 180 as calculated data 185. Note that the delay time τ s is approximated to 0, the second covariance calculation unit 130 calculates the variance of the time-series data of the first photovoltaic power generation output in the first period as the second covariance.

[0058] The estimation accuracy verification unit 140 determines whether the estimation accuracy of the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power generation output to be estimated, satisfies a predetermined accuracy using correlation information indicating the correlation between the first photovoltaic power generation output and the residual demand of the second consumer. Specifically, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140 extracts and reads the first photovoltaic power generation output for a first period from the photovoltaic power generation output data 182 stored in the storage unit 180, and extracts and reads the residual demand of the second consumer for the first period from the residual demand data 183 stored in the storage unit 180. The estimation accuracy verification unit 140 then calculates a correlation coefficient ρ by multiplying the correlation coefficient between the read first photovoltaic power generation output and the read residual demand of the second consumer by −1, and determines whether the estimation accuracy satisfies the predetermined accuracy based on whether the correlation coefficient ρ is equal to or greater than a threshold. The correlation coefficient ρ is an example of correlation information indicating the correlation between the first photovoltaic power generation output and the residual demand of the second consumer. The reason why the estimation accuracy can be determined using the correlation coefficient ρ is as follows. The residual demand of the second consumer is the sum (subtract) of the second photovoltaic power generation output from the power consumption of the load 201 of the second consumer. When the correlation between the first photovoltaic power generation output and the second photovoltaic power generation output is strong, the correlation between the first photovoltaic power generation output and the residual demand of the second consumer will also be strong. Note that in calculating the correlation coefficient ρ, the correlation between the first photovoltaic power generation output and the residual demand of the second consumer is multiplied by -1 because, as mentioned above, the residual demand of the second consumer is the power consumption of the load of the second consumer minus the second photovoltaic power generation output, and the positive and negative signs of the residual demand of the second consumer and the second photovoltaic power generation output are opposite. From the above, when the correlation coefficient ρ is close to 1, a high estimation accuracy can be achieved by an estimation method that assumes that the above formula (2) holds.

[0059] The estimation unit 150 estimates an estimation target photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 to be estimated, i.e., the power generation output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility, using the first photovoltaic power generation output and the residual demand, which is the apparent power consumption of the second consumer where the second photovoltaic power generation facility is installed (the sum of the power consumption of the second consumer and the photovoltaic power generation output). The first photovoltaic power generation output is an example of solar irradiance intensity data indicating solar irradiance. The solar irradiance intensity data is, for example, data indicating the solar irradiance intensity at a reference point, which is a point different from the installation location of the second photovoltaic power generation facility, but is not limited to this. In this embodiment, the reference point is the installation location of the first photovoltaic power generation facility. In detail, the estimation unit 150 calculates a ratio α, which is an estimate of the ratio between the first photovoltaic power generation output and the second photovoltaic power generation output, using the first covariance and the second covariance, and estimates the second photovoltaic power generation output by multiplying the first photovoltaic power generation output, which is shifted by a delay time from the estimation time point, by the ratio α. In detail, the estimation unit 150 reads out the first covariance and the second covariance stored in the storage unit 180 as the calculation data 185, and estimates the ratio α for each consumer whose power generation output is to be estimated by using the read out first covariance and second covariance according to the above formula (5). The estimation unit 150 updates the value of the ratio α stored as the calculation data 185 with the value estimated above. Furthermore, the estimation unit 150 calculates the delay time τ s The first photovoltaic power generation output at the time of the shift is extracted and read from the photovoltaic power generation output data 182 in the storage unit 180, and the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the photovoltaic power generation output of the consumer to be estimated, is estimated by multiplying the first photovoltaic power generation output by the ratio α, and the estimation result is stored in the storage unit 180 as calculated data 185. Note that although the ratio α is unlikely to change in a short period of time such as one or two weeks, it is likely to change over a delay time τ s is likely to change in a short period of time due to changes in wind direction or wind speed. Therefore, the delay time τ s It is preferable that the time series be changed in real time taking into account weather data and the like.

[0060] The display unit 160 displays various data stored in the storage unit 180. The input receiving unit 170 receives input from the user.

[0061] The output unit 190 reads out the estimation result of the second photovoltaic power generation output from the calculation data 185 stored in the storage unit 180, and transmits the read out estimation result to the control device 300. The output unit 190 may also display the read out estimation result.

[0062] Next, a hardware configuration of the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 will be described. In the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 of this embodiment, a photovoltaic power generation output estimation program, which is a program describing the processing in the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100, is executed on a computer system, so that the computer system functions as the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100. FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of a computer system that realizes the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 of this embodiment. As shown in FIG. 3, this computer system includes a control unit 101, an input unit 102, a storage unit 103, a display unit 104, a communication unit 105, and an output unit 106, which are connected via a system bus 107.

[0063] In FIG. 3 , the control unit 101 is a processor such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) and executes a photovoltaic power generation output estimation program that describes the processing performed by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 of this embodiment. The input unit 102 is composed of, for example, a keyboard, a mouse, etc., and is used by a user of the computer system to input various information. The memory unit 103 includes various types of memory, such as RAM (Random Access Memory) and ROM (Read Only Memory), and a storage device, such as a hard disk, and stores programs to be executed by the control unit 101, necessary data obtained during processing, etc. The memory unit 103 is also used as a temporary storage area for programs. The display unit 104 is composed of a display, an LCD (Liquid Crystal Display Panel), etc., and displays various screens to the user of the computer system. The communication unit 105 is a receiver and transmitter that perform communication processing. The output unit 106 is, for example, a printer. Note that FIG. 3 is an example, and the configuration of the computer system is not limited to the example of FIG. 3 .

[0064] Here, an example of the operation of the computer system until the photovoltaic power generation output estimation program of this embodiment is ready to be executed will be described. In the computer system having the above configuration, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation program is installed in an auxiliary storage device that is part of the storage unit 103 from, for example, a CD-ROM or DVD-ROM inserted in a CD (Compact Disc)-ROM drive or DVD (Digital Versatile Disc)-ROM drive (not shown). Then, when the photovoltaic power generation output estimation program is executed, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation program read from the auxiliary storage device of the storage unit 103 is stored in the main storage area of ​​the storage unit 103. In this state, the control unit 101 executes processing as the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 of this embodiment in accordance with the program stored in the storage unit 103.

[0065] In the above description, a program describing the processing in the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 is provided on a CD-ROM or DVD-ROM as a recording medium, but this is not limiting. Depending on the configuration of the computer system, the capacity of the program to be provided, etc., it is also possible to use a program provided via a transmission medium such as the Internet via the communication unit 105.

[0066] The first covariance calculation unit 120, the second covariance calculation unit 130, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140, and the estimation unit 150 shown in FIG. 2 are realized by the control unit 101 shown in FIG. 3 executing a photovoltaic power generation output estimation program stored in the storage unit 103 shown in FIG. 3. The storage unit 180 shown in FIG. 2 is a part of the storage unit 103 shown in FIG. 3. The data acquisition unit 110 shown in FIG. 2 is realized by the communication unit 105 and the control unit 101 shown in FIG. 3. The display unit 160 shown in FIG. 2 is realized by the display unit 104 shown in FIG. 3, and the input acceptance unit 170 shown in FIG. 2 is realized by the input unit 102 shown in FIG. 3. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 may be realized by multiple computer systems. The output unit 190 shown in FIG. 2 is realized by at least one of the communication unit 105 and the display unit 104 shown in FIG. 3.

[0067] The photovoltaic power generation output estimation program of this embodiment causes a computer to execute, for example, a step of estimating the photovoltaic power generation output to be estimated, which is the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 to be estimated, using solar irradiance intensity data indicating solar irradiance intensity and residual demand, which is the sum of the power consumption and photovoltaic power generation output of the consumer where the photovoltaic power generation facility is installed, and a step of determining whether the estimation accuracy of the photovoltaic power generation output to be estimated satisfies a specified accuracy using correlation information indicating the correlation between the solar irradiance intensity data and the residual demand where the photovoltaic power generation facility is installed.

[0068] Next, details of the operation of the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100 of this embodiment will be described. FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing an example of a processing procedure for estimating power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100 of this embodiment. Below, processing for estimating a second photovoltaic power generation output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100 will be described along the flow of FIG. 4. The processing shown in FIG. 4 is performed, for example, for each second photovoltaic power generation facility that is the target of power generation output estimation. Before this processing, it is assumed that a photovoltaic power generation facility 202 that is the second photovoltaic power generation facility and the target of a surplus purchase contract (hereinafter also referred to as surplus purchase PV) and a photovoltaic power generation facility 202 that is the first photovoltaic power generation facility and the target of a full purchase contract (hereinafter also referred to as full purchase PV) corresponding to the second photovoltaic power generation facility have been selected. In other words, it is assumed that a second consumer having the second photovoltaic power generation facility and a first consumer having the first photovoltaic power generation facility have been selected. Note that, in the following, an example will be described in which the first solar power generation facility is a full-amount buy-back PV, but the first solar power generation facility may be a solar power generation facility 202 whose power generation output is measured by the meter 206 as described above, i.e., a surplus buy-back PV, and does not depend on the contract type. The selection of the first solar power generation facility may be based on the distance between the solar power generation facilities 202 as described above, or may be based on the correlation coefficient ρ, or may be based on both the distance and the correlation coefficient ρ.

[0069] As shown in FIG. 4, first, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140 sets a first period (step S1). Specifically, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140 refers to the time-series data of the first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 of the first consumer, in the photovoltaic power generation output data 182 stored in the storage unit 180, and searches for a period in which the solar radiation intensity is strong and the solar radiation intensity fluctuates greatly. For example, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140 searches for a period of about 6 to 10 hours in which the first photovoltaic power generation output is high and the fluctuation of the first photovoltaic power generation output is large on the day before the day on which the second photovoltaic power generation output is estimated. Then, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140 sets the searched period as the first period. Note that instead of searching for the first period from the above period (for example, the day before the day on which the second photovoltaic power generation output is estimated), the estimation accuracy verification unit 140 may first search for the above period itself and then search for the first period from the period. As described above, the first period may be set in any manner without searching for a period of approximately 6 to 10 hours during which the first photovoltaic power generation output is large and fluctuates greatly. Because the hours of sunlight vary depending on the season, the first period may be set according to the season. For example, the first period may be set from 6:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. in the summer and shorter in the winter.

[0070] Next, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140 calculates the SM metric value of the total purchased PV, P PV1 In detail, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140 obtains P (t), which is the power generation output of the first photovoltaic power generation facility in the first period, from the photovoltaic power generation output data 182 stored in the storage unit 180. PV1 Read (t).

[0071] Next, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140 acquires P2(t), which is the SM metric value of the surplus purchase consumer (step S3). In detail, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140 reads P2(t), which is the residual demand of the second consumer for the first period, from the residual demand data 183 stored in the memory unit 180.

[0072] Next, the first covariance calculation unit 120 calculates the delay time τ sIn detail, the first covariance calculation unit 120 calculates P , which is the power generation output of the first photovoltaic power generation facility in the first period, from the photovoltaic power generation output data 182 and the residual demand data 183 stored in the storage unit 180. PV1 (t) and the residual demand P2(t+τ) of the second consumer, which is shifted by a time lag τ, are read out, and the read-out P PV1 (t) and residual demand P2(t+τ) to calculate the covariance function Cov t [P PV1 Then, the first covariance calculation unit 120 calculates the covariance function Cov(t), P2(t+τ) for the plurality of time lags τ. t [P PV1 (t),P2(t+τ)] and calculate the covariance function Cov t [P PV1 (t),P2(t+τ)] is the minimum value (sign is "-" and absolute value is maximum) multiplied by -1 to obtain the delay time τ s The first covariance calculation unit 120 calculates the calculated delay time τ s is stored in the storage unit 180 as calculated data 185.

[0073] Next, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140 calculates the correlation coefficient ρ (step S5). In detail, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140 calculates the delay time τ s Read out P PV1 (t), P2(t), and delay time τ s The correlation coefficient ρ is calculated by the above-mentioned equation (7) using the above and stored as calculated data 185 in the storage unit 180.

[0074] Next, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140 determines whether the correlation coefficient ρ is equal to or greater than a threshold value u (ρ≧u) (step S6). If the correlation coefficient ρ is equal to or greater than the threshold value u (step S6 Yes), the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 calculates and updates the ratio α (step S7), estimates the photovoltaic power generation output of the surplus purchase PV, i.e., the second photovoltaic power generation output (step S8), and ends the process. Steps S7 and S8 will be described in detail later.

[0075] FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of the ratio α for each combination of photovoltaic power generation facilities 202 stored in the storage unit 180 in this embodiment. For example, in the example shown in FIG. 5, the power output of PV2, which is the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 of consumer 200-2, is estimated using the power output of PV1, which is the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 of consumer 200-1, and the estimated value of the ratio α used for the estimation is α1. In this manner, the ratio α is stored in the storage unit 180 for each combination of photovoltaic power generation facilities 202 (combination of the second photovoltaic power generation facility and the first photovoltaic power generation facility). When the ratio α is calculated in step S7, the estimated value of the ratio α is stored as calculation data 185 in the storage unit 180 for each combination of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 (second photovoltaic power generation facility) whose power output is to be estimated and the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 (first photovoltaic power generation facility) used for the estimation. If the ratio α has already been stored in the storage unit 180, when the ratio α is calculated in step S7, the ratio α stored in the storage unit 180 is updated with the calculated ratio α.

[0076] Returning to the description of Fig. 4, if the correlation coefficient ρ is less than the threshold value u (No in step S6), the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 calls the ratio α without updating it (step S9), and performs the process of step S8. In detail, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140 notifies the estimation unit 150 of the determination result of step S6, and in step S9, the estimation unit 150 calls the ratio α by reading out the ratio α stored as calculation data 185 in the storage unit 180. Note that if the determination in step S6 above is No when the ratio α has never been estimated, in step S9, the corresponding initial value in the ratio initial value data 184 is read out and stored in the storage unit 180 as calculation data 185.

[0077] The ratio initial value data 184 is an initial value of the ratio α for each second consumer. When a first consumer corresponding to each second consumer is determined in advance, the initial value of the ratio α may be the ratio of the rated capacities of the photovoltaic power generation equipment 202 of the second consumer to the photovoltaic power generation equipment 202 of the first consumer. When a first consumer corresponding to each second consumer is not determined in advance, the ratio of the rated capacities of the photovoltaic power generation equipment 202 of the second consumer to the photovoltaic power generation equipment 202 of the candidate first consumer may be stored as the initial value for all consumers that are candidates for the first consumer. The initial value of the ratio α may be obtained by further multiplying the above-mentioned ratio of rated capacities by a coefficient indicating the efficiency ratio between the first photovoltaic power generation equipment and the second photovoltaic power generation equipment, thereby reflecting a difference in efficiency.

[0078] Next, the process of step S7 in Fig. 4, that is, the calculation process of the ratio α, will be described in detail. Fig. 6 is a flowchart showing an example of the calculation process of the ratio α according to this embodiment. As shown in Fig. 6, the first covariance C1=Cov t [P PV1 In detail, the first covariance calculation unit 120 calculates P PV1 (t) is extracted and read from the photovoltaic power generation output data 182 in the storage unit 180, P2(t) which is the residual demand of the second consumer in the first period is extracted and read from the residual demand data 183 in the storage unit 180, and the read P PV1 The first covariance calculation unit 120 calculates the first covariance C1 using P(t) and P2(t). The first covariance calculation unit 120 stores the calculated first covariance C1 in the storage unit 180 as calculated data 185. Note that, in step S4 described above, the first covariance C1=Cov t [P PV1 (t), P2(t)] is also calculated, the first covariance calculation unit 120 calculates the first covariance C1=Cov t [P PV1 (t), P2(t)] may be stored in the storage unit 180 as calculated data 185. In other words, step S11 may be performed within the processing of step S4.

[0079] Next, the second covariance calculation unit 130 calculates the second covariance C2=Cov t [P PV1 (t),P PV1 (t+τ s In detail, the second covariance calculation unit 130 calculates the delay time τ s is read out, and the first solar power generation output in the first period is P PV1 (t) and the delay time τ from the first period s The first solar power generation output in the shifted second period, P PV1 (t+τ s ) is extracted and read from the photovoltaic power generation output data 182 in the storage unit 180, and P PV1 (t) and P PV1 (t+τ s ) and the second covariance C2 = Cov, which corresponds to the denominator of equation (5), t [P PV1 (t),P PV1 (t+τ s The second covariance calculation unit 130 stores the calculated second covariance C2 in the storage unit 180 as calculated data 185. Note that the delay time τ s When is approximated to 0, the delay time τ s The second covariance calculation unit 130 does not need to perform processing related to the first photovoltaic power generation output P PV1 (t) is extracted and read from the photovoltaic power generation output data 182 in the storage unit 180, and P PV1 Using (t), the second covariance C2 = Cov t [P PV1 (t),P PV1 (t)] is calculated.

[0080] Next, the estimation unit 150 calculates the ratio α=−C1 / C2 (step S13). In detail, the estimation unit 150 reads out the first covariance C1 and the second covariance C2 stored in the storage unit 180 as calculated data 185, calculates the ratio α by dividing the first covariance C1 by the second covariance C2 and adding a negative value to the result, and stores the calculated ratio α in the storage unit 180 as calculated data 185. As a result, the ratio α stored in the storage unit 180 is updated.

[0081] Next, the process of step S8 in Fig. 4, that is, the process of estimating the photovoltaic power generation output of the surplus purchase PV, which is the second photovoltaic power generation facility, will be described in detail. Fig. 7 is a flowchart showing an example of the process of estimating the photovoltaic power generation output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility according to this embodiment. As shown in Fig. 7, the estimation unit 150 estimates P PV2 (t) is the delay time τ from the target time point s The first solar power generation output at the time of the shift, P PV1 (t+τ s The estimation unit 150 calculates the delay time τ s The delay time τ at the time of estimation s Alternatively, the delay time τ may be calculated by reflecting the weather data at the time of estimation. s For example, the estimation unit 150 may update the delay time using a value obtained by calculating the time it takes for clouds to pass from wind direction and wind speed data included in the weather data, or may update the delay time τ s Alternatively, the delay time τ may be updated using meteorological data by other methods. s is approximated to 0, the estimation unit 150 calculates the P PV2 (t) is P PV1 It is calculated by multiplying (t) by the ratio α.

[0082] The processes of steps S1 to S7 and S9 shown in FIG. 4 are performed before the process of step S8, i.e., the process of estimating the second photovoltaic power generation output. For example, they may be performed by the day before the target estimation time. In step S8, the estimation unit 150 estimates P PV1 Using (t), the solar power generation output P of the second solar power generation facility PV2 Estimate (t).

[0083] As described above, the photovoltaic power generation output data 182 is measurement data measured by the smart meter 204 and the measuring instrument 206, but estimated values ​​may be used instead of these measurement data. For example, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 may estimate the photovoltaic power generation output using the method of this embodiment or another method, and store the estimated photovoltaic power generation output as the photovoltaic power generation output data 182. Alternatively, an estimated value or an actual measured value of the photovoltaic power generation output may be input by a user, and the input estimated value or actual measured value may be stored as the photovoltaic power generation output data 182.

[0084] By the above processing, as long as there is at least one photovoltaic power generation facility from which the photovoltaic power generation output can be acquired, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 of this embodiment can individually estimate the photovoltaic power generation output of other desired photovoltaic power generation facilities by using the power generation output of that photovoltaic power generation facility, without installing an actinometer or a measuring instrument with high time resolution. Furthermore, in this embodiment, as described above, verification of the ratio α using the correlation coefficient ρ can prevent a decrease in the estimation accuracy of the ratio α, and therefore the second photovoltaic power generation output can be estimated with high accuracy.

[0085] Although the example has been described in which the power generation output of the second solar power generation facility of one second consumer is estimated using the power generation output of the first solar power generation facility of one first consumer, the total (total value) of the power generation output of multiple second solar power generation facilities may be estimated using the power generation output of the first solar power generation facility of one first consumer. Furthermore, the total (total value) of the power generation output of multiple second solar power generation facilities may be estimated using the total (total value) of the power generation output of the first solar power generation facilities of multiple first consumers. For example, when it is necessary to estimate the total power generation output of the solar power generation facilities of multiple consumers, such as by distribution section (e.g., by pole transformer), by distribution line, or by transmission line, the total power generation output of consumers whose power generation output has not been measured can be estimated in a similar manner.

[0086] When the power generation output of the plurality of second photovoltaic power generation facilities is estimated using the power generation output of the first photovoltaic power generation facilities of the plurality of first consumers, the ratio α is calculated for each combination of the plurality of photovoltaic power generation facilities. s When considering the delay time τ s is the time it takes for fluctuations in solar radiation to propagate between the centroid position of the installation point of the second solar power generation facility and the centroid position of the installation point of the first solar power generation facility.

[0087] Next, verification results of the effects achieved by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 will be described. FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of verification results of the power generation output estimation method of this embodiment. In FIG. 8, the horizontal axis represents time, and the vertical axis represents the second photovoltaic power generation output (active power). The dashed line represents the estimated value of the second photovoltaic power generation output estimated by the estimation method described in this embodiment, and the solid line represents the actual measured value. In the example shown in FIG. 8, the photovoltaic power generation equipment of multiple customers that are subject to full-amount purchase contracts is defined as the first photovoltaic power generation equipment, and the photovoltaic power generation equipment of multiple customers that are subject to surplus purchase contracts is defined as the second photovoltaic power generation equipment. The example shown in FIG. 8 shows the results of estimating the total power generation output of the second photovoltaic power generation equipment. Furthermore, in the example shown in FIG. 8, 16 points in 30-minute increments from 8:00 to 16:00 on a past day were used as estimation points. The ratio α was calculated on the day before the estimation point, and the second photovoltaic power generation output was estimated using the measurement data of the first photovoltaic power generation output on the day of the estimation point. In this verification, the power generation output of the second solar power generation facility was measured separately and the measured value is shown as an actual measurement value in Fig. 8. As can be seen from Fig. 8, it was confirmed that the power generation output estimation method of this embodiment can estimate the second solar power generation output with high accuracy.

[0088] FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an example of the verification results of the power generation output estimation method according to the present embodiment when the estimation accuracy is not verified. In FIG. 9, similar to FIG. 8, the dashed line indicates the estimated value of the second photovoltaic power generation output estimated by the estimation method described in the present embodiment, and the solid line indicates the actual measured value. In the example shown in FIG. 9, the same verification as the example shown in FIG. 8 was performed on a different day. However, in the example shown in FIG. 9, the verification of the estimation accuracy using the correlation coefficient ρ is omitted. That is, in the example shown in FIG. 9, steps S6 and S9 shown in FIG. 4 are not performed, and step S7 is performed after step S5. If the verification of the estimation accuracy using the correlation coefficient ρ is not performed, the estimation accuracy of the second photovoltaic power generation output may be reduced, as shown in FIG.

[0089] Here, factors that can cause a decrease in estimation accuracy include, for example, the sudden appearance of a shadow on either the first or second solar power generation facility, the presence of a mountain between the first and second solar power generation facilities, or changes in cloud cover or wind direction causing different clouds to pass overhead over the first and second solar power generation facilities, which can cause the solar power generation output of the two facilities to be disproportional, causing equation (2) to no longer hold. Verification of estimation accuracy using the correlation coefficient ρ is performed, and if the estimation accuracy decreases, the ratio α is not adopted, thereby preventing a decrease in the estimation accuracy of the second solar power generation output.

[0090] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of a scatter plot of the correlation coefficient ρ and the estimation error of the second photovoltaic power generation output. In FIG. 10, the horizontal axis represents the correlation coefficient ρ, and the vertical axis represents the root mean squared error (RMSE) of the estimated value of the second photovoltaic power generation output. The RMSE shown in FIG. 10 was calculated by calculating the ratio α for all cases without verifying the estimation accuracy using the correlation coefficient ρ on the previous day, regardless of the value of the correlation coefficient ρ, and then using the ratio α to estimate the photovoltaic power generation output on the next day (the estimation target time point) and the actual measured value measured for verification. The correlation coefficient ρ shown in FIG. 10 was calculated when the ratio α was calculated. Each point in the scatter plot shown in FIG. 10 represents the result of calculating the RMSE of the estimated value relative to the actual measured value for each estimation time point, with multiple days being used as the estimation time points. The correlation coefficient ρ and the ratio α were calculated on the day before each estimation time point. Area 401 is an area where the correlation coefficient ρ is small and the error is large, and it can be seen that the estimated date with a large error can be identified by identifying points where the correlation coefficient ρ is small. Area 402 is an area where the correlation coefficient ρ is large and the estimation accuracy is high, and it can be seen that the estimation accuracy is high when the correlation coefficient ρ is sufficiently large (for example, 0.95 or more).

[0091] The threshold value u for the correlation coefficient ρ may be preset to a value indicating a high correlation, such as 0.95, or may be determined using data obtained through verification. For example, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140 stores multiple sets of data, each set consisting of the RMSE and the correlation coefficient ρ obtained through verification, in the storage unit 180, as illustrated in FIG. 10 , and the display unit 160 displays these sets as a scatter plot. That is, the display unit 160 displays the scatter plot illustrated in FIG. 10 . Note that the RMSE at this time is the result obtained by estimating power output by updating the ratio α in all cases regardless of the value of the correlation coefficient ρ, without verifying the estimation accuracy using the correlation coefficient ρ. Then, while checking this scatter plot, the user determines the threshold value u so that groups with large and small RMSE, which is the estimation error, can be appropriately separated, and inputs the determined threshold value u via the input receiving unit 170. For example, the user adjusts the threshold value u by moving the line representing the threshold value u shown in FIG. 10 left and right using a mouse, which is an example of the input receiving unit 170. For example, a confirmation button may be displayed on the scatter diagram illustrated in FIG. 10 , and the user may set the threshold value u by moving the line indicating the threshold value u to a desired position and pressing the confirmation button. In the verification for determining the threshold value u, a first consumer having a full-amount purchase PV may be set as a second consumer, and another full-amount purchase PV may be used as a first solar power generation facility to estimate the power generation output of the full-amount purchase PV of the second consumer. In this case, the measurement value of the smart meter 204 of the second consumer may be used as the actual measurement value for verification. Alternatively, a meter may be temporarily installed at the second consumer having the above-mentioned surplus purchase PV to measure the solar power generation output. Furthermore, an estimated value of the solar power generation output installed at the second consumer may be used. Alternatively, the threshold value u may be determined using simulation results instead of verification results.

[0092] The threshold value u may be calculated by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 or another device through calculations such as machine learning. For example, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140 may determine the threshold value u through machine learning using the RMSE and correlation coefficient ρ obtained through verification. That is, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140 may acquire multiple errors (RMSE) of the estimated value of the second photovoltaic power generation output estimated by the estimation unit 150 relative to the actual measured value of the second photovoltaic power generation output, and use multiple data sets consisting of errors and correlation coefficients ρ corresponding to the errors to calculate the threshold value through machine learning so that the error when the correlation coefficient ρ is less than the threshold value u is equal to or less than a predetermined value. As the machine learning, any method may be used, such as a maximum entropy method or a decision tree, or the threshold value u may be determined by classifying the results using a clustering method. The display unit 160 may display the above-mentioned scatter diagram, i.e., a scatter diagram showing the relationship between the actual measured value of the second photovoltaic power generation output and the error of the estimated value of the second photovoltaic power generation output estimated by the estimation unit 150. Furthermore, the display unit 160 may superimpose the calculated threshold value u on the scatter diagram. This allows the user to check whether the threshold value u has been set correctly. The user may also be able to change the calculated threshold value u. For example, the user may be able to change the threshold value u by shifting the line indicating the calculated threshold value u to the left or right, just as when the user sets the threshold value u.

[0093] In the above example, the second photovoltaic power generation output is estimated using the first photovoltaic power generation output, which is measurement data. However, after estimating the second photovoltaic power generation output, the estimated second photovoltaic power generation output may be used as the first photovoltaic power generation output to estimate the power generation output of another photovoltaic power generation facility. By repeating this process, it is possible to estimate the power generation output of the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 to be estimated, even if there is no photovoltaic power generation facility 202 whose power generation output has been measured within a predetermined distance from the photovoltaic power generation facility 202 to be estimated.

[0094] As described above, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 according to the first embodiment estimates the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility, using the first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of the first photovoltaic power generation facility, and the residual demand of the consumer in which the second photovoltaic power generation facility is installed. Furthermore, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 includes an estimation accuracy verification unit 140 that determines whether the estimation accuracy of the second photovoltaic power generation output satisfies a predetermined accuracy using a correlation coefficient ρ between the first photovoltaic power generation output and the residual demand of the consumer in which the second photovoltaic power generation facility is installed. Therefore, if it is determined that the estimation accuracy does not satisfy the predetermined accuracy, countermeasures can be taken. One example of such countermeasures is to use an initial value or a previously calculated ratio α instead of adopting the calculated ratio α, but the countermeasures are not limited thereto. For example, if it is determined that the estimation accuracy does not satisfy the predetermined accuracy, the second photovoltaic power generation output may be estimated using a different estimation method. Alternatively, the first photovoltaic power generation facility corresponding to the second photovoltaic power generation facility may be sequentially changed, and if a first photovoltaic power generation facility with a high correlation coefficient ρ is found, the ratio α may be calculated using the power generation output of that first photovoltaic power generation facility. If it is determined that the estimation accuracy does not satisfy the predetermined accuracy, measures can be taken to improve the estimation accuracy of the second photovoltaic power generation output.

[0095] Embodiment 2 Next, a photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100 according to a second embodiment will be described. The functional configuration and hardware configuration of the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100 of this embodiment are similar to those of the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100 of the first embodiment. Components having the same functions as those of the first embodiment will be described with the same reference numerals as those of the first embodiment, and descriptions that overlap with those of the first embodiment will be omitted. Differences from the first embodiment will be mainly described below.

[0096] FIG. 11 is a flowchart showing an example of a procedure for estimating power output by the photovoltaic power output estimating device 100 according to this embodiment. First, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140 sets a plurality of first periods (step S31). Then, for one of the plurality of first periods, steps S2 to S6 are performed, as in the first embodiment. If the answer to step S6 is Yes, step S32 is performed. In step S32, the ratio α is calculated, as in the first embodiment. However, the calculated ratio α is temporarily stored in the estimation unit 150 or the storage unit 180, and the ratio α in the calculation data 185 in the storage unit 180 is not updated at this point. After step S32, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140 determines whether the ratios α for all first periods have been calculated (step S33). If there are any first periods for which the ratio α has not been calculated (No in step S33), the estimation accuracy verification unit 140 selects one of the first periods for which the ratio α has not been calculated. Thereafter, the processing from step S2 is repeated for the selected first period. If the answer is No in step S6, step S32 is not performed and step S33 is performed.

[0097] When the ratios α for all first periods have been calculated (Yes in step S33), the estimation accuracy verification unit 140 instructs the estimation unit 150 to calculate a representative value, and the estimation unit 150 calculates a representative value of the multiple ratios α and updates the stored ratio α with the calculated value (step S34). In detail, the estimation unit 150 calculates the representative value of the ratio α using the ratios α for each first period that are temporarily stored. The representative value of the ratio α is, for example, the median of the multiple ratios α that are temporarily stored, but may also be a statistical quantity such as the average or mode. Step S8 is the same as in the first embodiment.

[0098] As described in this embodiment, a plurality of first periods may be set, or one first period may be set as described in Embodiment 1. That is, it is sufficient that at least one first period is set.

[0099] In this embodiment, the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100 sets a plurality of first periods, calculates the ratio α for each first period in which the correlation coefficient ρ is equal to or greater than the threshold value u, and estimates the second photovoltaic power generation output using a representative value of the calculated ratio α. This improves the estimation accuracy of the second photovoltaic power generation output compared to the first embodiment.

[0100] Embodiment 3 Fig. 12 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of a grid control system according to a third embodiment. A grid control system 10a according to this embodiment includes a photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100a, a control device 300, smart meters 203 to 205, a measuring instrument 206, and a solar radiation intensity measurement network 60. Components having the same functions as those in the first embodiment are denoted by the same reference numerals as those in the first embodiment and will not be described again. Differences from the first embodiment will be mainly described below.

[0101] The solar radiation intensity measurement network 60 may, for example, include a plurality of pyranometers that measure solar radiation intensity, and provide measured values ​​of solar radiation intensity at a plurality of locations as data indicating solar radiation intensity. The data indicating solar radiation intensity is provided together with information indicating the corresponding date and time and location, i.e., information indicating the corresponding date, time, and location. The solar radiation intensity measurement network 60 may also provide both measured values ​​of solar radiation intensity and estimated values ​​of solar radiation intensity. The estimated values ​​of solar radiation intensity may be, for example, highly accurate estimates obtained using satellite images, but are not limited to this. Alternatively, an estimation system for deriving estimated values ​​of solar radiation intensity may be used instead of the solar radiation intensity measurement network 60.

[0102] In the first embodiment, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 in Fig. 2 estimated the second photovoltaic power generation output using measurement data of the first photovoltaic power generation output (measurement data of the power generation output of the full-amount purchase PV or measurement data of the power generation output of the surplus purchase PV measured by the measuring instrument 206). In the present embodiment, the second photovoltaic power generation output is estimated using an actual measurement value or an estimated value of solar radiation intensity instead of the measurement data of the first photovoltaic power generation output.

[0103] As shown in FIG. 12 , the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100a is similar to the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100 of the first embodiment except that, instead of the first covariance calculation unit 120, the second covariance calculation unit 130, and the estimation accuracy verification unit 140, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100a includes a first covariance calculation unit 120a, a second covariance calculation unit 130a, and an estimation accuracy verification unit 140a, and that solar irradiance intensity data 186 is stored in the memory unit 180 instead of the photovoltaic power generation output data 182.

[0104] In this embodiment, the data acquisition unit 110 acquires data indicating solar radiation intensity from the solar radiation intensity measurement network 60, and stores the acquired data in the storage unit 180 as solar radiation intensity data 186. Note that the solar radiation intensity data 186 may be an estimated value of solar radiation intensity, or may be a mixture of both measured and estimated values ​​of solar radiation intensity.

[0105] The first covariance calculation unit 120a, the second covariance calculation unit 130a, and the estimation accuracy verification unit 140a perform the same processing as in the first embodiment using the solar radiation intensity data 186 instead of the measurement data of the first photovoltaic power generation output.

[0106] Fig. 13 is a flowchart showing an example of a processing procedure for estimating power output by the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100a according to this embodiment. It is assumed that, before the processing shown in Fig. 13, a reference point corresponding to the second photovoltaic power generation facility is selected from among points for which data indicating solar radiation intensity is provided. The method for selecting the reference point is the same as the method for selecting the combination of the second photovoltaic power generation facility and the first photovoltaic power generation facility according to the first embodiment, and the reference point may be selected based on distance, may be selected based on a correlation coefficient ρ according to this embodiment, which will be described later, or may be selected based on both distance and the correlation coefficient ρ.

[0107] 13, similarly to the first embodiment, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140a sets the first period by, for example, referring to the solar radiation intensity data 186 instead of the solar power generation output data 182 and searching for a period in which the solar radiation intensity is strong and fluctuates greatly. After step S1, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140a acquires the solar radiation intensity SR(t) (step S41). In detail, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140a reads the solar radiation intensity SR(t) at the reference point for the first period from the solar radiation intensity data 186 stored in the storage unit 180.

[0108] The estimation accuracy verification unit 140a performs step S3 in the same manner as in embodiment 1. After that, the first covariance calculation unit 120 calculates the delay time τ s (step S4), and the estimation accuracy verification unit 140a calculates the correlation coefficient ρ (step S42). In step S4, the solar radiation intensity is used instead of the first photovoltaic power generation output, and the delay time τ s In step S42, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140a calculates -Cor t [SR(t),P2(t+τ s ) to calculate the correlation coefficient ρ. The correlation coefficient ρ is an example of correlation information indicating the correlation between the solar irradiance data and the residual demand of the second consumer. The estimation accuracy verification unit 140a stores the calculated correlation coefficient ρ in the storage unit 180 as calculated data 185.

[0109] The estimation accuracy verification unit 140a performs step S6 in the same manner as in embodiment 1. If the correlation coefficient ρ is equal to or greater than the threshold u (Yes in step S6), the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100a calculates and updates the ratio α (step S43), estimates the photovoltaic power generation output of the surplus purchased PV, i.e., the second photovoltaic power generation output (step S44), and ends the process. If the correlation coefficient ρ is less than the threshold u (No in step S6), the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100a calls the ratio α without updating it (step S45), and performs the process of step S44.

[0110] Next, the process of step S43 in Fig. 13, that is, the calculation process of the ratio α, will be described in detail. Fig. 14 is a flowchart showing an example of the calculation process of the ratio α according to this embodiment. As shown in Fig. 14, first, the first covariance calculation unit 120a calculates the first covariance C1=Cov t [SR(t), P2(t)] is calculated (step S51). In detail, the first covariance calculation unit 120a extracts and reads out SR(t), which is the solar irradiance at the reference point in the first period, from the solar irradiance intensity data 186 in the storage unit 180, extracts and reads out P2(t), which is the residual demand of the second consumer in the first period, from the residual demand data 183 in the storage unit 180, and calculates the first covariance C1 using the read out SR(t) and P2(t). The first covariance calculation unit 120a stores the calculated first covariance C1 in the storage unit 180 as calculation data 185. Note that, in the above-mentioned step S4, the first covariance C1=Cov t Since [SR(t), P2(t)] is also calculated, the first covariance calculation unit 120 calculates the first covariance C1=Cov calculated in step S4. t [SR(t), P2(t)] may be stored in the storage unit 180 as the calculated data 185. In other words, step S51 may be performed within the processing of step S4.

[0111] Next, the second covariance calculation unit 130a calculates the second covariance C2=Cov t [SR(t),SR(t+τ s In detail, the second covariance calculation unit 130a calculates the delay time τ s The solar radiation intensity at the reference point in the first period, SR(t), and the delay time τ s SR(t+τ s ) are extracted and read out from the solar radiation intensity data 186 in the storage unit 180, and SR(t) and SR(t+τ s ) and the second covariance C2, Cov t [SR(t),SR(t+τ s The second covariance calculation unit 130a stores the calculated second covariance C2 in the storage unit 180 as calculated data 185. Note that the delay time τs When is approximated to 0, the delay time τ s The second covariance calculation unit 130 extracts and reads out SR(t), which is the solar radiation intensity in the first period, from the solar radiation intensity data 186 in the storage unit 180, and calculates the second covariance C2Cov using SR(t). t Calculate [SR(t),SR(t)].

[0112] Next, the estimation unit 150 calculates the ratio α=−C1 / C2 (step S53). In detail, similar to step S13 in the first embodiment, the estimation unit 150 reads out the first covariance C1 and the second covariance C2 stored in the storage unit 180 as calculated data 185, calculates the ratio α by dividing the first covariance C1 by the second covariance C2 and adding a negative value to the result, and stores the calculated ratio α in the storage unit 180 as calculated data 185. This updates the ratio α stored in the storage unit 180. Similar to the first embodiment, the ratio α is stored in the storage unit 180 for each combination of the second photovoltaic power generation facility and the reference point.

[0113] Next, the process of step S44 in Fig. 13, that is, the process of estimating the photovoltaic power generation output of the surplus purchase PV, which is the second photovoltaic power generation facility, will be described in detail. Fig. 15 is a flowchart showing an example of the process of estimating the photovoltaic power generation output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility of this embodiment. As shown in Fig. 15, the estimation unit 150 estimates P PV2 (t) is the delay time τ from the target time point s Solar radiation intensity SR(t+τ s ) (Delay time τ from the target time s The estimation unit 150 calculates the delay time τ s The delay time τ at the time of estimation s Alternatively, similarly to the first embodiment, the delay time τ s The delay time τ sis approximated to 0, the estimation unit 150 calculates the P PV2 (t) is calculated by multiplying SR(t) by the ratio α.

[0114] The hardware configuration of the photovoltaic power generation output estimating apparatus 100a is similar to that of the photovoltaic power generation output estimating apparatus 100 of the first embodiment, and the photovoltaic power generation output estimating apparatus 100a is realized by, for example, a computer system illustrated in FIG.

[0115] 12 shows an example in which the power generation output estimated by the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100a is used for grid control, but as in the first embodiment, the power generation output estimated by the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100a is not limited to this, and may be used for, for example, supply and demand control, facility formation, etc. That is, the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100a may be used in a supply and demand control system, a facility formation system, etc.

[0116] As described above, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100a of the third embodiment estimates the second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility, using solar irradiance data at a reference point and the residual demand of the consumer where the second photovoltaic power generation facility is installed. Furthermore, the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device 100a includes an estimation accuracy verification unit 140a that determines whether the estimation accuracy of the second photovoltaic power generation output satisfies a predetermined accuracy using a correlation coefficient ρ between the solar irradiance data and the residual demand of the consumer where the second photovoltaic power generation facility is installed. Therefore, if it is determined that the estimation accuracy does not satisfy the predetermined accuracy, measures can be taken. These measures are the same as those in the first embodiment. This makes it possible to improve the estimation accuracy of the power generation output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility.

[0117] Note that the actual measured value or estimated value of solar irradiance intensity described in the present embodiment and the measurement data of the first solar power generation output described in the first embodiment both depend on solar irradiance intensity. Therefore, the actual measured value or estimated value of solar irradiance intensity described in the present embodiment and the measurement data of the first solar power generation output described in the first embodiment are both examples of solar irradiance intensity data indicating solar irradiance at a location different from the installation location of the solar power generation facility whose power generation output is to be estimated. Therefore, it can be said that the solar power generation output estimation device 100 of the first embodiment also estimates the second solar power generation output, which is the power generation output of the second solar power generation facility, using solar irradiance intensity data at a reference location (the location of the first solar power generation facility) and the residual demand of the consumer where the second solar power generation facility is installed, and determines whether the estimation accuracy of the second solar power generation output satisfies a specified accuracy using the correlation coefficient ρ between the solar irradiance intensity data and the residual demand of the consumer where the second solar power generation facility is installed.

[0118] Note that both the power generation output (measurement data) of the full-amount purchase PV and the actual or estimated value of the irradiance intensity may be used as the irradiance intensity data. For example, for each second solar power generation facility, it may be more accurate to use a correlation coefficient ρ using the power generation output of the full-amount purchase PV or a correlation coefficient ρ using the irradiance intensity. For this reason, it may be possible to use either the power generation output of the full-amount purchase PV or the irradiance intensity separately for each second solar power generation facility.

[0119] Embodiment 4 Next, a photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100a according to a fourth embodiment will be described. The functional configuration and hardware configuration of the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100a of this embodiment are similar to those of the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100a of the third embodiment. Components having the same functions as those of the third embodiment will be described using the same reference numerals as those of the first embodiment, and descriptions that overlap with those of the third embodiment will be omitted. Below, differences from the third embodiment will be mainly described.

[0120] In this embodiment, similarly to the second embodiment, a plurality of first periods are set, and the second photovoltaic power generation output is estimated using a representative value of the calculated ratio α.

[0121] FIG. 16 is a flowchart showing an example of a process procedure for estimating power output by the photovoltaic power output estimating device 100a according to this embodiment. First, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140a performs step S31, as in the second embodiment. Then, for one of the first periods, steps S41, S3, S4, S42, and S6 are performed, as in the third embodiment. If the answer to step S6 is Yes, step S71 is performed. In step S71, the ratio α is calculated, as in the third embodiment. However, the calculated ratio α is temporarily stored in the estimation unit 150 or the storage unit 180, and the ratio α in the calculation data 185 in the storage unit 180 is not updated at this point. After step S71, the estimation accuracy verification unit 140a performs step S33, as in the second embodiment. If there is a first period for which the ratio α has not been calculated (No in step S33), one of the first periods for which the ratio α has not been calculated is selected. Thereafter, the process from step S41 is repeated for the selected first period. If the answer is No in step S6, step S71 is not performed and step S33 is performed.

[0122] When the ratios α for all the first periods have been calculated (Yes in step S33), step S34 is carried out in the same manner as in embodiment 2. Step S44 is the same as in embodiment 3.

[0123] In this embodiment, the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device 100a sets a plurality of first periods, calculates the ratio α for each first period in which the correlation coefficient ρ is equal to or greater than the threshold value u, and estimates the second photovoltaic power generation output using a representative value of the calculated ratio α. This improves the estimation accuracy of the second photovoltaic power generation output compared to the third embodiment.

[0124] The configurations shown in the above embodiments are merely examples, and may be combined with other known technologies, or different embodiments may be combined with each other. It is also possible to omit or modify parts of the configurations as long as they do not deviate from the gist of the invention.

[0125] Various aspects of the present disclosure are summarized below as appendices.

[0126] (Appendix 1) an estimation unit that estimates an estimation target photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of a photovoltaic power generation facility that is an estimation target, using solar irradiance intensity data that indicates solar irradiance intensity and a residual demand that is a sum of power consumption and photovoltaic power generation output at a consumer where the photovoltaic power generation facility is installed; an estimation accuracy verification unit that determines whether or not the estimation accuracy of the target photovoltaic power generation output satisfies a predetermined accuracy using correlation information that indicates a correlation between the solar radiation intensity data and the residual demand; A photovoltaic power generation output estimation device comprising: (Appendix 2) a first covariance calculation unit that calculates a first covariance that is a covariance between time series data of the solar irradiance intensity data and time series data of the residual demand during a first period prior to the estimation time point of the photovoltaic power generation output to be estimated; a second covariance calculation unit that calculates a second covariance that is an autocovariance between time series data of the solar irradiance intensity data in the first period and time series data of the solar irradiance intensity data in a second period that is shifted from the first period by a delay time; Equipped with the delay time is a time required for fluctuations in solar radiation to propagate between the solar power generation facility and a point corresponding to the solar radiation intensity data; and the estimation unit calculates a ratio that is an estimate of a ratio between the solar irradiance intensity data and the solar power generation output to be estimated using the first covariance and the second covariance, and estimates the solar power generation output to be estimated by multiplying the solar irradiance intensity data that is shifted by a delay time from the estimation time point by the ratio; The solar power generation output estimation device described in Appendix 1, characterized in that the estimation accuracy verification unit determines whether the estimation accuracy of the solar power generation output to be estimated for each first period satisfies a predetermined accuracy. (Appendix 3) 3. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 2, wherein the ratio is a value obtained by dividing the first covariance by the second covariance and multiplying the result by −1. (Appendix 4) the correlation information is a value obtained by multiplying a correlation coefficient between time series data of the solar radiation intensity data in the first period and time series data of the residual demand in the second period that is shifted from the first period by a delay time by −1; The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 3, wherein the estimation accuracy verification unit determines that the estimation accuracy of the photovoltaic power generation output to be estimated satisfies a predetermined accuracy when the correlation coefficient is equal to or greater than a threshold, and determines that the estimation accuracy of the photovoltaic power generation output to be estimated does not satisfy the predetermined accuracy when the correlation coefficient is less than the threshold. (Appendix 5) A plurality of the first periods are set, The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 4, wherein the estimation unit calculates a representative value of the ratio using the ratio corresponding to the first period in which it is determined that the correlation coefficient is equal to or greater than a threshold value, and estimates the photovoltaic power generation output to be estimated using the representative value. (Appendix 6) a display unit that displays a scatter diagram showing a relationship between the correlation coefficient and an error of the estimated value of the estimation target photovoltaic power generation output estimated by the estimation unit relative to an actual measured value of the estimation target photovoltaic power generation output; 6. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 4 or 5, comprising: (Appendix 7) 7. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 6, wherein the display unit displays the threshold value superimposed on the scatter diagram. (Appendix 8) 8. The photovoltaic power generation output estimating device according to any one of appendices 2 to 7, wherein the delay time is approximated to zero. (Appendix 9) The solar power generation output estimation device according to any one of appendices 1 to 8, wherein the solar radiation intensity data is measurement data or an estimated value of the power generation output of a solar power generation facility installed at a location corresponding to the solar radiation intensity data. (Appendix 10) The solar power generation output estimation device according to any one of appendices 1 to 9, characterized in that the solar radiation intensity data is a measured or estimated value of solar radiation intensity measured at a point corresponding to the solar radiation intensity data. (Appendix 11) a photovoltaic power generation output estimation device that estimates the power generation output of a photovoltaic power generation facility; a control device that controls a voltage of a power grid using the power generation output estimated by the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device; Equipped with The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device includes: an estimation unit that estimates an estimation target photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of a photovoltaic power generation facility that is an estimation target, using solar irradiance intensity data that indicates solar irradiance intensity and a residual demand that is a sum of power consumption and photovoltaic power generation output at a consumer where the photovoltaic power generation facility is installed; an estimation accuracy verification unit that determines whether or not the estimation accuracy of the target photovoltaic power generation output satisfies a predetermined accuracy using correlation information that indicates a correlation between the solar radiation intensity data and the residual demand; A system control system comprising: (Appendix 12) a photovoltaic power generation output estimation device that estimates the power generation output of a photovoltaic power generation facility; a supply and demand control device that controls supply and demand of electricity using the power generation output estimated by the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device; Equipped with The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device includes: an estimation unit that estimates an estimation target photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of a photovoltaic power generation facility that is an estimation target, using solar irradiance intensity data that indicates solar irradiance intensity and a residual demand that is a sum of power consumption and photovoltaic power generation output at a consumer where the photovoltaic power generation facility is installed; an estimation accuracy verification unit that determines whether or not the estimation accuracy of the target photovoltaic power generation output satisfies a predetermined accuracy using correlation information that indicates a correlation between the solar radiation intensity data and the residual demand; A supply and demand control system comprising: (Appendix 13) a photovoltaic power generation output estimation device that estimates the power generation output of a photovoltaic power generation facility; a state management device that indicates the state of the power grid using the power generation output estimated by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device; Equipped with The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device includes: an estimation unit that estimates an estimation target photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of a photovoltaic power generation facility that is an estimation target, using solar irradiance intensity data that indicates solar irradiance intensity and a residual demand that is a sum of power consumption and photovoltaic power generation output at a consumer where the photovoltaic power generation facility is installed; an estimation accuracy verification unit that determines whether or not the estimation accuracy of the target photovoltaic power generation output satisfies a predetermined accuracy using correlation information that indicates a correlation between the solar radiation intensity data and the residual demand; A facility formation support system comprising: (Appendix 14) a photovoltaic power generation output estimation device that estimates a target photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of a photovoltaic power generation facility that is the target of estimation, using solar irradiance intensity data that indicates solar irradiance intensity and a residual demand that is a sum of power consumption and the photovoltaic power generation output at a consumer in which the photovoltaic power generation facility is installed; A photovoltaic power generation output estimation method, characterized in that the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device determines whether the estimation accuracy of the photovoltaic power generation output to be estimated satisfies a specified accuracy using correlation information indicating the correlation between the solar radiation intensity data and the residual demand. (Appendix 15) a step of estimating an estimated photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of a photovoltaic power generation facility to be estimated, using solar irradiance intensity data indicating solar irradiance intensity and residual demand, which is the sum of power consumption and photovoltaic power generation output at a consumer where the photovoltaic power generation facility is installed; determining whether the estimation accuracy of the target photovoltaic power generation output satisfies a predetermined accuracy using correlation information indicating a correlation between the solar radiation intensity data and the residual demand; A photovoltaic power generation output estimation program characterized by causing a computer to execute the above. [Explanation of symbols]

[0127] 10,10a grid control system, 60 solar radiation intensity measurement network, 100,100a photovoltaic power generation output estimation device, 110 data acquisition unit, 120,120a first covariance calculation unit, 130,130a second covariance calculation unit, 140,140a estimation accuracy verification unit, 150 estimation unit, 160 display unit, 170 input reception unit, 180 memory unit, 190 output unit, 200-1 to 200-4, 200-m, 200-n consumers, 201 load, 202 photovoltaic power generation equipment, 203 to 205 smart meters, 206 measuring instrument, 300 control device.

Claims

1. an estimation unit that estimates an estimation target photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of a photovoltaic power generation facility that is an estimation target, using solar irradiance intensity data that indicates solar irradiance intensity and a residual demand that is a sum of power consumption and photovoltaic power generation output at a consumer where the photovoltaic power generation facility is installed; an estimation accuracy verification unit that determines whether or not the estimation accuracy of the target photovoltaic power generation output satisfies a predetermined accuracy using correlation information that indicates a correlation between the solar radiation intensity data and the residual demand; A photovoltaic power generation output estimation device comprising:

2. a first covariance calculation unit that calculates a first covariance that is a covariance between time series data of the solar irradiance intensity data and time series data of the residual demand during a first period before a time point at which the photovoltaic power generation output to be estimated is estimated; a second covariance calculation unit that calculates a second covariance that is an autocovariance between time series data of the solar irradiance intensity data in the first period and time series data of the solar irradiance intensity data in a second period that is shifted from the first period by a delay time; Equipped with the delay time is a time required for fluctuations in solar radiation to propagate between the solar power generation facility and a point corresponding to the solar radiation intensity data; and the estimation unit calculates a ratio that is an estimate of a ratio between the solar irradiance intensity data and the solar power generation output to be estimated using the first covariance and the second covariance, and estimates the solar power generation output to be estimated by multiplying the solar irradiance intensity data that is shifted by a delay time from the estimation time point by the ratio; The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 1 , wherein the estimation accuracy verification unit determines whether or not the estimation accuracy of the photovoltaic power generation output to be estimated satisfies a predetermined accuracy for each of the first periods.

3. 3. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 2, wherein the ratio is a value obtained by dividing the first covariance by the second covariance and multiplying the result by −1.

4. The correlation information is a value obtained by multiplying a correlation coefficient between time series data of the solar radiation intensity data in the first period and time series data of the residual demand in the second period that is shifted from the first period by a delay time by −1, 4. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 3, wherein the estimation accuracy verification unit determines that the estimation accuracy of the photovoltaic power generation output to be estimated satisfies a predetermined accuracy when the correlation coefficient is equal to or greater than a threshold, and determines that the estimation accuracy of the photovoltaic power generation output to be estimated does not satisfy the predetermined accuracy when the correlation coefficient is less than the threshold.

5. a plurality of the first periods are set; The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 4, characterized in that the estimation unit calculates a representative value of the ratio using the ratio corresponding to the first period in which it is determined that the correlation coefficient is equal to or greater than a threshold value, and estimates the photovoltaic power generation output to be estimated using the representative value.

6. a display unit that displays a scatter diagram showing a relationship between the correlation coefficient and an error of the estimated value of the estimation target photovoltaic power generation output estimated by the estimation unit relative to an actual measured value of the estimation target photovoltaic power generation output; The photovoltaic power generation output estimating device according to claim 5, further comprising:

7. The photovoltaic power generation output estimating device according to claim 6 , wherein the display unit displays the threshold value superimposed on the scatter diagram.

8. The photovoltaic power generation output estimating device according to claim 2 , wherein the delay time is approximated to zero.

9. The solar power generation output estimation device according to claim 1, wherein the solar radiation intensity data is measurement data or an estimated value of the power generation output of a solar power generation facility installed at a location corresponding to the solar radiation intensity data.

10. 2. The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to claim 1, wherein the solar radiation intensity data is a measured value or an estimated value of solar radiation intensity measured at a point corresponding to the solar radiation intensity data.

11. a photovoltaic power generation output estimation device that estimates the power generation output of a photovoltaic power generation facility; a control device that controls a voltage of a power grid using the power generation output estimated by the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device; Equipped with The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device includes: an estimation unit that estimates an estimation target photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of a photovoltaic power generation facility that is an estimation target, using solar irradiance intensity data that indicates solar irradiance intensity and a residual demand that is a sum of power consumption and photovoltaic power generation output at a consumer where the photovoltaic power generation facility is installed; an estimation accuracy verification unit that determines whether or not the estimation accuracy of the target photovoltaic power generation output satisfies a predetermined accuracy using correlation information that indicates a correlation between the solar radiation intensity data and the residual demand; A system control system comprising:

12. a photovoltaic power generation output estimation device that estimates the power generation output of a photovoltaic power generation facility; a supply and demand control device that controls supply and demand of electricity using the power generation output estimated by the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device; Equipped with The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device includes: an estimation unit that estimates an estimation target photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of a photovoltaic power generation facility that is an estimation target, using solar irradiance intensity data that indicates solar irradiance intensity and a residual demand that is a sum of power consumption and photovoltaic power generation output at a consumer where the photovoltaic power generation facility is installed; an estimation accuracy verification unit that determines whether or not the estimation accuracy of the target photovoltaic power generation output satisfies a predetermined accuracy using correlation information that indicates a correlation between the solar radiation intensity data and the residual demand; A supply and demand control system comprising:

13. a photovoltaic power generation output estimation device that estimates the power generation output of a photovoltaic power generation facility; a state management device that indicates the state of the power grid using the power generation output estimated by the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device; Equipped with The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device includes: an estimation unit that estimates an estimation target photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of a photovoltaic power generation facility that is an estimation target, using solar irradiance intensity data that indicates solar irradiance intensity and a residual demand that is a sum of power consumption and photovoltaic power generation output at a consumer where the photovoltaic power generation facility is installed; an estimation accuracy verification unit that determines whether or not the estimation accuracy of the target photovoltaic power generation output satisfies a predetermined accuracy using correlation information that indicates a correlation between the solar radiation intensity data and the residual demand; A facility formation support system comprising:

14. a photovoltaic power generation output estimation device that estimates a target photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of a photovoltaic power generation facility that is the target of estimation, using solar irradiance intensity data that indicates solar irradiance intensity and a residual demand that is a sum of power consumption and photovoltaic power generation output at a consumer in which the photovoltaic power generation facility is installed; A photovoltaic power generation output estimation method, characterized in that the photovoltaic power generation output estimation device determines whether the estimation accuracy of the photovoltaic power generation output to be estimated satisfies a specified accuracy using correlation information indicating the correlation between the solar radiation intensity data and the residual demand.

15. a step of estimating an estimated photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of a photovoltaic power generation facility to be estimated, using solar irradiance intensity data indicating solar irradiance intensity and a residual demand, which is a sum of power consumption and photovoltaic power generation output at a consumer where the photovoltaic power generation facility is installed; determining whether the estimation accuracy of the target photovoltaic power generation output satisfies a predetermined accuracy using correlation information indicating a correlation between the solar radiation intensity data and the residual demand; A photovoltaic power generation output estimation program characterized by causing a computer to execute the above.

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