Power system planning and operation device and power system planning and operation method

Abstract

To provide a power system planning operation device which can reduce social costs such as damage to overhead wiring due to typhoons and can improve resilience before an accident due to the typhoon and a resulting power failure.SOLUTION: A power system planning operation device 10 of the present invention includes: a typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation part 22 for obtaining typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data including a change value of output of a power plant for each typhoon countermeasure case from at least track information in a typhoon, typhoon information data including wind speed, and system operation countermeasure candidate data including output information of the power plant; a reliability economic index value calculation part 23 for obtaining reliability economic index value calculation result data being a reliability economic index value from typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data, system data indicating a system structure, damage cost data due to a power failure, and reliability economic index data indicating the weight for an impact of the power failure; and a typhoon countermeasure determination part 24 for obtaining typhoon countermeasure determination result data from reliability economic index value calculation result data.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a power system planning and operation device and a power system planning and operation method. [Background technology]

[0002] Power systems are designed and operated in such a way that they maintain system stability (synchronization stability, voltage stability, frequency stability, overload, etc.) and do not cause power outages even if a single fault occurs. Hereafter, this is called the N-1 standard.

[0003] When natural disasters such as typhoons, earthquakes, and lightning strikes occur, multiple failures may occur simultaneously or consecutively, resulting in multiple failures (accidents exceeding the N-1 standard). The social impact of multiple failures (social losses due to power outages) is significant. In recent years, the increasing intensity of typhoons due to climate change has made maintaining power supplies during typhoons a major issue, and measures such as strengthening grid facilities and equipment, such as transmission towers, are required.

[0004] For example, Patent Document 1 describes a typhoon damage prediction support system that includes weather data observation meters installed at various locations along power distribution lines to measure weather data, a management server connected to the weather data observation meters via a remote transmission network and receiving the measured weather data, and a damage history database in which the history of past damage details is recorded together with the location of the damage and the weather conditions at the time, and the management server is equipped with: damage prediction target area setting means for setting a damage prediction target area; typhoon information acquisition means for acquiring typhoon information from a typhoon information source; weather condition prediction means for predicting the weather conditions by time at each damage prediction target coordinate in the set damage prediction target area by taking into account the typhoon information acquired by the typhoon information acquisition means and the weather data measured by the weather data observation meters; damage content prediction means for predicting the damage details at each damage prediction target coordinate based on the weather conditions predicted at that damage prediction target coordinate based on the damage history database; and damage content recording means for recording the predicted damage details. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0005] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2010-049433 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0006] The technology in Patent Document 1 records both the typhoon forecast and actual measurement data at each damage prediction location when typhoon damage occurs. As a result, even if a typhoon causes damage to overhead lines, the predicted damage probability is recorded in the damage prediction database along with the predicted damage details. This makes it possible to provide information on damage predictions for damage prediction target coordinates along with the probability of occurrence, making it possible to confirm the credibility of the predicted damage. Post-accident responses can then be taken based on the damage predictions.

[0007] The technology in Patent Document 1 can reduce damage caused by a typhoon after it has occurred by optimizing post-accident responses, but it cannot take measures before a typhoon-related accident and the resulting power outages occur.

[0008] An object of the present invention is to provide a power system planning and operation device and a power system planning and operation method that can reduce social costs such as damage to overhead lines caused by a typhoon and improve resilience even before a typhoon-related accident and the resulting power outage occur. [Means for solving the problem]

[0009] In order to solve the above problems, the power system planning and operation device of the present invention comprises a typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation unit that determines typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data including a change value for power plant output for each typhoon countermeasure case from typhoon information data including at least typhoon path information and wind speed and system operation countermeasure candidate data including power plant output information; a reliability economic efficiency index value calculation unit that determines reliability economic efficiency index value calculation result data, which is an index value for reliability economic efficiency, from the typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data, system data indicating the system configuration, damage cost data associated with power outages, and reliability economic efficiency index data indicating the weighting of the impact of power outages; and a typhoon countermeasure decision unit that determines typhoon countermeasure decision result data from the reliability economic efficiency index value calculation result data. [Effects of the Invention]

[0010] According to the present invention, it is possible to reduce the social costs of typhoons in power systems and improve the resilience of power systems. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0011] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing the relationship between a power grid diagram and the predicted path of a typhoon approaching. [Figure 2] 1 is a diagram illustrating a functional configuration of a power system planning and operation device according to a first embodiment. [Figure 3] 1 is a diagram illustrating a power system planning and operation system to which a power system planning and operation device according to a first embodiment is applied. [Figure 4] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a hardware configuration of a power system planning and operation device according to a first embodiment. [Figure 5] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing the configuration of a typhoon countermeasure calculation program. [Figure 6] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing the configuration of typhoon information data in a typhoon countermeasure calculation input data DB. [Figure 7] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing how the occurrence probability is expressed as a probability distribution function of the probability of collapse of a steel tower against wind speed. [Figure 8] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing the configuration of system operation countermeasure candidate data in a typhoon countermeasure calculation input data DB. [Figure 9]FIG. 10 is a diagram showing the configuration of damage cost data in a typhoon countermeasure calculation input data DB. [Figure 10] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing the configuration of reliability economic efficiency index data in the typhoon countermeasure calculation input data DB. [Figure 11] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing the configuration of typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data in a typhoon countermeasure calculation result data DB. [Figure 12] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing the configuration of reliability economic efficiency index value calculation result data in the typhoon countermeasure calculation result data DB. [Figure 13] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing the configuration of typhoon countermeasure decision result data in the typhoon countermeasure calculation result data DB. [Figure 14] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a processing flow of a typhoon countermeasure calculation unit of the power system planning and operation device. [Figure 15] 10A and 10B are diagrams illustrating examples of a display output by a display control unit to a display unit. [Figure 16] 10A and 10B are diagrams illustrating other examples of display output by the display control unit to the display unit. [Figure 17] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a functional configuration of a power system planning and operation device and a functional configuration of a central load control system according to a second embodiment. [Figure 18] FIG. 18 is a diagram illustrating a power system planning and operation system according to a second embodiment to which the power system planning and operation device and the central load control system described in FIG. 17 are applied. [Figure 19] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a functional configuration of a power system planning and operation device according to a third embodiment. [Figure 20A] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing the configuration of system improvement measure candidate data when the system improvement measure type is power transmission line addition. [Figure 20B] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing the configuration of system maintenance measure candidate data when the system maintenance measure type is substation addition. [Figure 20C] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing the configuration of system maintenance measure candidate data when the system maintenance measure type is the addition of a phase modifying facility. [Figure 21A] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data that is stored for each typhoon countermeasure case and stores information on system maintenance countermeasures and system operation countermeasures. [Figure 21B]FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating other typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data that is stored for each typhoon countermeasure case and stores information on system maintenance countermeasures and system operation countermeasures. [Figure 22] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a hardware configuration of a power system planning and operation device according to a third embodiment. [Figure 23] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a functional configuration of a power system planning and operation device and a functional configuration of a central load control system according to a fourth embodiment. [Figure 24] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a functional configuration of a power system planning operation device and a functional configuration of a power system planning system according to a fifth embodiment. [Figure 25] FIG. 25 is a diagram illustrating a power system planning and operation system according to a fifth embodiment to which the power system planning and operation device and the power system planning system described in FIG. 24 are applied. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0012] Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. First, an outline of the processing of a power system planning and operation device 10 according to an embodiment will be described with reference to FIG.

[0013] Figure 1 shows the relationship between the power grid diagram and the predicted path of an approaching typhoon. The power grid diagram in Figure 1 shows a map of power plants, substations, and the transmission lines connecting them. As a typhoon passes, transmission towers may collapse, cutting off power transmission and causing a power outage.

[0014] The power system planning and operation device 10 predicts power transmission interruptions due to the collapse of transmission towers based on the storm wind area and maximum wind speed in the typhoon's predicted path, and prevents power outages by changing system operations such as changing the power transmission route or power plant output.

[0015] Specifically, as shown in Figure 1, the predicted path of the typhoon predicts that the power transmission lines of power plant B and power plant A will enter the storm area in that order, and the power system planning and operation device 10 predicts power transmission cutoff at a predetermined cycle and changes the system operation. In Figure 1, the solid circle indicates the storm area, and the dashed circle indicates the forecast circle.

[0016] When changing the system operation, the power system planning and operation device 10 may be able to change the system operation so that the output of power plants B and A is replaced by increasing the output of other power plants, but there may also be cases where this is not possible and a power outage occurs in some areas. Furthermore, the impact of a power outage varies depending on the region. Furthermore, when there are many power plants, the number of combinations of conditions for changing the system operation becomes numerous.

[0017] For this reason, the power system planning and operation device 10 calculates the index values ​​of reliability and economy of a plurality of system operation candidates, and obtains the results of typhoon countermeasures based on the index values.

[0018] In addition, the power system planning and operation device 10 optimizes the expansion of power system transmission lines, substations, phase modifying equipment, etc. by determining the results of typhoon countermeasures based on the paths of past typhoons, including the expansion of power system transmission lines, substations, phase modifying equipment, etc. [Example]

[0019] FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a functional configuration of the power system planning and operation device 10 according to the first embodiment. The power system planning and operation device 10 is composed of a typhoon countermeasure calculation input data DB30, which is a database (hereinafter referred to as DB) that stores calculation input data for typhoon countermeasures due to typhoons, a typhoon countermeasure calculation unit 20 that calculates typhoon countermeasures using the typhoon countermeasure calculation input data DB30, a typhoon countermeasure calculation result data DB40 that stores the typhoon countermeasures calculated by the typhoon countermeasure calculation unit 20, and a display control unit 50 that controls the display of the typhoon countermeasure results on a display unit 105 (FIG. 4) described below.

[0020] In detail, the typhoon countermeasure calculation unit 20 uses the typhoon countermeasure calculation input data DB30 to select typhoon information, calculates candidate typhoon countermeasures for the selected typhoon information, calculates a reliability economic efficiency index value for the calculated candidate typhoon countermeasures, determines typhoon countermeasures based on the calculated reliability economic efficiency index value, and stores the typhoon countermeasure results in the typhoon countermeasure calculation result data DB40.

[0021] The configurations of the typhoon countermeasure calculation input data DB 30, the typhoon countermeasure calculation unit 20, and the typhoon countermeasure calculation result data DB 40 will be described in more detail below.

[0022] The typhoon countermeasure calculation input data DB 30 stores typhoon information data 31, system operation countermeasure candidate data 33, system data 34, damage cost data 35, and reliability economics index data 36.

[0023] The typhoon information data 31, which will be described in detail later with reference to FIG. 6, is information indicating the predicted course and scale (maximum wind speed, etc.) of a typhoon that has occurred.

[0024] The system operation countermeasure candidate data 33, which will be described in detail later with reference to Fig. 8, is information indicating candidates for operational changes in response to typhoon damage at power plants and other facilities in the system. The typhoon countermeasure calculation unit 20, which will be described later, quantitatively calculates the effects of implementing candidate countermeasures for estimated typhoon damage.

[0025] The system data 34 includes the system configuration, line impedance (R+jX), earth capacitance (susceptance: jB), data necessary for system configuration and state estimation (such as the threshold value of batt data), generator data, and other data necessary for power flow calculation, state estimation, and time series change calculation.

[0026] The damage cost data 35, which will be described in detail later with reference to Fig. 9, is information indicating the costs associated with power outages at substations. The typhoon countermeasure calculation unit 20, which will be described later, refers to the damage cost data 35 to quantitatively and highly accurately calculate the reliability economic efficiency index value for the typhoon countermeasure candidate.

[0027] The reliability economic efficiency index data 36, ​​which will be described in detail later with reference to Fig. 10, is information indicating the weighting of each type of reliability economic efficiency. The typhoon countermeasure calculation unit 20, which will be described later, scores important facilities for which power outages must be avoided as much as possible to maintain society, as the reliability economic efficiency index data 36, ​​and quantitatively calculates the reliability economic efficiency index value for the typhoon countermeasure candidate.

[0028] The typhoon countermeasure calculation result data DB 40 stores typhoon information selection result data 41, typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data 42, reliability economic efficiency index value calculation result data 43, and typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44.

[0029] The typhoon information selection result data 41 is typhoon information for which the power system planning and operation device 10 of the embodiment has determined typhoon countermeasure candidates.

[0030] The typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data 42, which will be described in detail later with reference to FIG. 11, is information indicating the calculation results of typhoon countermeasures obtained by the power system planning and operation device 10 of the embodiment.

[0031] The reliability economic efficiency index value calculation result data 43, which will be described in detail later with reference to FIG. 12, is information indicating the reliability economic efficiency index value calculation result of the typhoon countermeasure for each typhoon countermeasure calculated by the power system planning and operation device 10 of the embodiment, and is associated with the typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data 42.

[0032] The typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44, which will be described in detail later with reference to Fig. 13, is information that displays a list of reliability and economic efficiency index values ​​for each typhoon countermeasure case calculated by the power system planning and operation device 10 of the embodiment, and information on the selection results of the typhoon countermeasure case. This makes it possible to compare the calculation results of the reliability and economic efficiency index values ​​for the typhoon countermeasure cases, and to easily confirm the selection results and the reasons for selection.

[0033] The information stored in the typhoon countermeasure calculation result data DB 40 includes not only data as calculation results but also data at the time of intermediate processing, which can be used as appropriate.

[0034] The typhoon countermeasure calculation unit 20 is a processing unit that determines typhoon countermeasures, and is composed of a typhoon information selection unit 21, a typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation unit 22, a reliability economics index value calculation unit 23, and a typhoon countermeasure decision unit 24. The processing contents of the typhoon countermeasure calculation unit 20 will be described in detail with reference to FIG.

[0035] The typhoon information selection unit 21 selects typhoon information for which typhoon countermeasures are required from the typhoon information data 31 and outputs the selection result to typhoon information selection result data 41.

[0036] The typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation unit 22 calculates typhoon countermeasure candidate related to system operation using system operation countermeasure candidate data 33 based on the typhoon information selected by the typhoon information selection unit 21, and outputs the calculated typhoon countermeasure candidate as typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data 42.

[0037] The reliability economics index value calculation unit 23 uses the system data 34, damage cost data 35, and reliability economics index data 36 to calculate the reliability economics index value of the typhoon countermeasure candidate related to the system operation calculated by the typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation unit 22, and outputs it as reliability economics index value calculation result data 43.

[0038] The typhoon countermeasure decision unit 24 decides on typhoon countermeasures relating to system operation based on the reliability economic efficiency index value calculated by the reliability economic efficiency index value calculation unit 23 , and outputs the typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44 .

[0039] The display control unit 50 processes and displays various data handled by the power system planning and operation device 10 in an easy-to-read format as appropriate. The display control unit 50 also reflects input results from input means such as a mouse or keyboard on the display screen.

[0040] FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating a power system planning and operation system to which the power system planning and operation device 10 of the first embodiment is applied.

[0041] The power system planning and operation device 10 is connected to a monitoring and control terminal 301 that monitors and controls synchronous machine power sources 304 such as thermal power plants, nuclear power plants, and hydroelectric power plants that are connected to the power system 306, a monitoring and control terminal 301 that monitors and controls renewable energy power sources 303 such as solar power plants and wind power plants, and a monitoring terminal 302 that monitors a measuring device 305 that measures the current distribution within the power system 306, via a network 300, to send and receive data and obtain the output and power transmission status of the power plants.

[0042] Next, the hardware configuration of the power system planning and operation device 10 according to the first embodiment will be described with reference to FIG.

[0043] The power system planning and operation device 10 is a computer, information processing device, or computer server in which a display unit 105, an input unit 103 such as a keyboard or mouse, a communication unit 104, a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 101, a memory 102, and a storage device are connected by a bus line 91.

[0044] The storage device includes a typhoon countermeasure calculation input data DB30 that stores typhoon information data 31, system operation countermeasure candidate data 33, system data 34, damage cost data 35, and reliability economic efficiency index data 36 as a database, a typhoon countermeasure calculation result data DB40 that stores typhoon information selection result data 41, typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data 42, reliability economic efficiency index value calculation result data 43, and typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44 as a database, and a typhoon countermeasure calculation program 20P.

[0045] The CPU 101 executes a predetermined computer program of the typhoon countermeasure calculation program 20P, which will be described later in FIG. 5, to realize the functions of the typhoon information selection unit 21, the typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation unit 22, the reliability economics index value calculation unit 23, the typhoon countermeasure decision unit 24, and the display control unit 50 of the typhoon countermeasure calculation unit 20.

[0046] The display unit 105 is configured as a display device. Alternatively, the display unit 105 may be configured to use a printer device, an audio output device, or the like instead of or together with the display device. In addition, the display unit 105 of the power system planning and operation device 10 may display a simple screen only for rewriting each program and database, and the obtained candidate typhoon countermeasure results may be displayed on a display device connected to the network 300.

[0047] The input unit 103 is configured to include at least one of a keyboard switch, a pointing device such as a mouse, a touch panel, a voice instruction device, and the like.

[0048] The communication unit 104 includes a circuit and a communication protocol for connecting to the network 300 .

[0049] The memory 102 is configured with RAM (Random Access Memory) and stores the computer programs read out from the typhoon countermeasure calculation unit 20, and temporarily stores the calculation result data and image data required for each process. The screen data stored in the memory 102 is sent to the display unit 105 and displayed. Examples of the displayed screen will be described later.

[0050] Specifically, the memory 102 temporarily stores calculation temporary data and calculation result data such as image data for display, typhoon information selection result data 41, typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data 42, reliability economic efficiency index value calculation result data 43, and typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44. In addition, the CPU 101 (display control unit 50) generates necessary image data and displays it on the display unit 105 (for example, a display screen).

[0051] FIG. 5 is a diagram showing the configuration of the typhoon countermeasure calculation program 20P. The typhoon countermeasure calculation program 20P stores a typhoon information selection program 21P, a typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation program 22P, a reliability economic efficiency index value calculation program 23P, a typhoon countermeasure decision program 24P, and a display program 50P.

[0052] The typhoon information selection program 21P is a program that selects typhoon information from the typhoon information data 31 and stores it in the typhoon information selection result data 41, and is executed by the CPU 101 to realize the typhoon information selection unit 21.

[0053] The typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation program 22P is a program that calculates typhoon countermeasure candidate related to system operation using the system operation countermeasure candidate data 33 for the typhoon information selected by the typhoon information selection unit 21, and stores the calculated typhoon countermeasure candidate as typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data 42. The typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation program 22P is executed by the CPU 101 to realize the typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation unit 22.

[0054] The reliability economic efficiency index value calculation program 23P is a program that uses system data 34, damage cost data 35, and reliability economic efficiency index data 36 to calculate the reliability economic efficiency index value of the typhoon countermeasure candidate related to system operation calculated by the typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation unit 22, and stores it as reliability economic efficiency index value calculation result data 43.The reliability economic efficiency index value calculation program 23P is executed by the CPU 101 to realize the reliability economic efficiency index value calculation unit 23.

[0055] In more detail, the reliability economic efficiency index value indicates the reliability of the power supply in terms of the number of times, duration, or expected value of power shortages that will occur when candidate typhoon countermeasures are implemented, as well as the economic efficiency of the costs involved in implementing candidate typhoon countermeasures, and is a numerical value used to quantitatively compare candidate typhoon countermeasures.

[0056] The typhoon countermeasure decision program 24P is a program that decides typhoon countermeasures related to system operation based on the reliability economic efficiency index value calculated by the reliability economic efficiency index value calculation unit 23, and stores the results as typhoon countermeasure decision data 44. The typhoon countermeasure decision program 24P is executed by the CPU 101 to realize the typhoon countermeasure decision unit 24.

[0057] The display program 50P is a program that processes various data handled by the power system planning operation device 10 into an easy-to-read format and displays it, and also reflects the input results of input means such as a mouse or keyboard on the display screen, and is executed by the CPU 101 to realize the display control unit 50.

[0058] Hereinafter, the contents of the typhoon countermeasure calculation input data DB 30 and the typhoon countermeasure calculation result data DB 40 will be described in detail.

[0059] 6 is a diagram showing the configuration of typhoon information data 31 in the typhoon countermeasure calculation input data DB 30. The typhoon information data 31 indicates the typhoon's scale and predicted typhoon damage for each predicted path of the typhoon that has occurred. Note that types of typhoon damage may also include information on the collapse of steel towers due to flooding associated with the typhoon, lightning strikes, etc.

[0060] In detail, the typhoon information data 31 is composed of, for each typhoon case 311, the typhoon's scale, which includes the typhoon's center position 313, central pressure 314, maximum wind speed 315, storm area radius 316, and strong wind area radius 317 at the date and time 312 of the predicted course, and the typhoon damage, which includes the typhoon's predicted damaged facilities 318, damage details 319, and damage occurrence probability 320 at the date and time 312 of the predicted course.

[0061] Specifically, in typhoon case 311 of typhoon case CT1, when the date and time 312 of the predicted course is 18:00 on DD / MM / YYYY, the center position 313 is latitude N1 and longitude E1, the central pressure 314 is 1000 hPa, the maximum wind speed 315 is 30 m / s, the storm area radius 316 is 50 km, and the strong wind area radius 317 is 300 km, there is no damaged facilities 318, damage details 319, or occurrence probability 320 due to the typhoon on that date and time.

[0062] Furthermore, when the date and time 312 of the predicted course is 21:00 on DD / MM / YYYY, the center position 313 is latitude N2 and longitude E2, the central pressure 314 is 950 hPa, the maximum wind speed 315 is 40 m / s, the radius of the storm area 316 is 70 km, and the radius of the strong wind area 317 is 400 km, and it is predicted that on that date and time, the damaged facility 318 is transmission line L21, the damage type 319 is shutdown, and the probability of occurrence 320 is 0.05 for typhoon damage.

[0063] Regarding wind speed, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency's website, wind speed is the 10-minute average wind speed, and maximum wind speed is the maximum value of the 10-minute average wind speed. Incidentally, instantaneous wind speed is the value obtained by averaging anemometer measurements (at 0.25-second intervals) for 3 seconds (average of 12 measurements), and maximum instantaneous wind speed is the maximum value of the instantaneous wind speed. In this disclosure, wind speed is defined in the same way as the Japan Meteorological Agency, but is not limited to this. Maximum wind speed may also be wind speed.

[0064] Unlike disasters such as earthquakes, a characteristic of the impact of typhoons is that the extent of damage, probability of damage, and scale of damage change as the typhoon progresses. Also, unlike disasters such as earthquakes, it is easy to predict the time horizon and the scale of hazards such as wind speed. Therefore, in this example, typhoon forecast data is used to evaluate each risk up to a future time cross-section, and the total risk until the typhoon passes is evaluated.

[0065] Here, the probability 320 of occurrence of power line interruption damage will be explained. The probability of a structure like a transmission tower collapsing is nearly zero until a certain wind speed is reached, and the probability of collapse generally rises sharply when the wind speed exceeds the design standard wind speed with a design margin.As shown in Figure 7, the occurrence probability 320 is expressed as a probability distribution function (also known as a fragility curve) with the wind speed at the tower on the horizontal axis and the collapse probability on the vertical axis.

[0066] The wind speed at the tower location is predicted from the typhoon's predicted path, and the probability of tower collapse is calculated from the fragility curve in Figure 7. The probability of a power line being cut off is the probability that any one of the towers included in that power line will collapse. In this way, the probability of a power line being cut off is calculated.

[0067] Fig. 8 is a diagram showing the configuration of the system operation measure candidate data 33 in the typhoon countermeasure calculation input data DB 30. The system operation measure candidate data 33 is information showing candidates for operation changes in response to typhoon damage in the system operation measure type, which is system equipment. Fig. 8 shows the case of a power plant operation change at a predetermined date and time as the system operation measure type.

[0068] In detail, the system operation measure candidate data 33 for a predetermined system operation measure type is composed of the power plant name 333, the power plant output 334 (current value, upper output limit value, lower output limit value), and the cost 335 (increase, decrease) for changing the power plant output for each date and time 332 (date and time).

[0069] Specifically, FIG. 8 shows that when the system operation measure type 331 is power plant and the date and time 332 is 00:00 on MM / DD / YYYY, the current output of power plant G1 is 500 MW, the upper output limit is 1000 MW, the lower output limit is 300 MW, the cost of increasing output is 6 yen / kWh, and the cost of decreasing output is -6 yen / kWh.

[0070] For example, by reducing the output of power plant G1 and increasing the output of power plant G2 using the system operation countermeasure candidate data 33, the amount of power flowing through locations where there is a high possibility of a line break due to the collapse of a steel tower by a typhoon can be reduced, or the amount of power flowing through locations where there is a high expected value of overload in the event of a line break can be reduced, thereby reducing the risk of power outages.

[0071] FIG. 8 shows the system operation measure candidate data 33 when the system operation measure type 331 is a power plant, but the system operation measure type 331 may be a system operation measure other than a change in the operation of the power plant, such as starting or stopping the power plant, changing a substation tap, opening or closing a substation phase modifying equipment, or opening or closing a transmission line, or may be another system operation measure.

[0072] The system operation countermeasure candidate data 33 allows for the identification of typhoon countermeasure candidate options related to system operation. It also allows for the quantitative and highly accurate calculation of reliability and economic index values, such as costs, for the typhoon countermeasure candidate options. These index values ​​are evaluated at all time cross sections, from the time the typhoon approaches to the time the typhoon passes.

[0073] 9 is a diagram showing the configuration of the damage cost data 35 in the typhoon countermeasure calculation input data DB 30. The damage cost data 35 is information indicating the costs and the like associated with power outages at substations.

[0074] More specifically, the damage cost data 35 is made up of a substation name 351 and a cost 352 associated with the power outage at the substation. Specifically, FIG. 9 shows that a power outage at a substation whose substation name 351 is substation S1 will cause damage of 4,000 yen / kWh in cost 352.

[0075] The damage cost data 35 may be the cost for each individual customer, the cost for each type of customer (general household, factory, office, hospital, etc.), or other types. That is, the damage cost data 35 is at least one of the power outage cost for each substation, the power outage cost for each customer, and the power outage cost for each type of customer. By including the above information, it is possible to quantitatively and accurately calculate the reliability economic efficiency index value for typhoon countermeasure candidate measures.

[0076] 10 is a diagram showing the configuration of the reliability economic efficiency index data 36 in the typhoon countermeasure calculation input data DB 30. The reliability economic efficiency index data 36 is information indicating the weight for each type of reliability economic efficiency.

[0077] More specifically, the reliability economic efficiency index data 36 is composed of a type 361 of the reliability economic efficiency index and a weighting coefficient 362 for each index. Specifically, FIG. 10 shows that the types 361 of reliability economic efficiency indexes are countermeasure costs and expected damage costs, the weight 362 of countermeasure costs is 1, and the weight 362 of expected damage costs is 1000.

[0078] The reliability economic index value type 361 may be Loss of Load Probability (LOLP), Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE), Expected Unserved Energy (EUE), or Value of Lost Load (VOLL). It may also be an index related to system stability (such as synchronization stability, voltage stability, frequency stability, or overload) (such as whether or not a generator is out of step, the maximum value of the generator's internal phase difference angle, the load margin up to the nose point of the PV curve, short-circuit capacity, short-circuit capacity ratio (SCR), the maximum frequency drop, the rate of change of frequency (RoCoF), the overload rate of the transmission line, or the amount of overload on the transmission line), or other index. It may also be an economic index such as GDP lost due to a power outage. For example, it may be a score for important government offices or hospitals that need to avoid power outages as much as possible to maintain social functions.

[0079] The reliability economic efficiency index data 36 allows the reliability economic efficiency index value for the typhoon countermeasure candidate to be quantitatively calculated.

[0080] 11 is a diagram showing the configuration of typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data 42 in the typhoon countermeasure calculation result data DB 40. The typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data 42 is information showing the calculation results of typhoon countermeasures for each typhoon countermeasure case name 421. The typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data 42 includes information on system operation measures 421B and power outage amount mitigation measures 421C.

[0081] In the system operation measures 421B of the typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data 42, the system operation measures stored in the system operation measure candidate data 33 are stored for each system operation measure type 422B. More specifically, when the system operation countermeasure type 422B is a change in power plant operation, the power plant name 424B, the pre-change output value (current value), upper output limit value, lower output limit value, and post-change output value information 425B of the power plant are stored for each date and time 423B (date and time). Note that in Fig. 11, the typhoon countermeasure case name 421 is "typhoon countermeasure case CC1."

[0082] Specifically, when the typhoon countermeasure case 421 in Figure 11 is typhoon countermeasure case CC1, system operation countermeasure 421B indicates that the output of power plant G1 at 00:00 on DD / MM / YYYY will be changed from 500 MW to 1000 MW, and the output of power plant G2 will be changed from 300 MW to 150 MW.

[0083] Further, in the power outage amount mitigation measures 421C of the typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data 42, each power outage amount mitigation measure stored in the system operation countermeasure candidate data 33 is stored. In detail, in the case of a substation where the power outage mitigation measure type 422C indicates the deployment of a power supply vehicle to the substation and a change in operational output, for each date and time 423C (date and time), the name of the substation to be deployed 424C, the output value (current value) before the change in the deployment of the power supply vehicle at the substation, the output upper limit value, the output lower limit value and the output value after the change, and information on future reinforcement plans 425C are stored.

[0084] Specifically, in typhoon countermeasure case CC1, which is typhoon countermeasure case name 421 in Figure 11, the output of substation CS1 at 00:00 on DD / MM / YYYY is 30 MW, and this indicates that the output can be increased to 100 MW in the future, with a further 200 MW of reinforcements planned.

[0085] Typhoon countermeasure case CC1 in Figure 11 is a case where both system operation measure 421B (i.e., a change in the operation of the power plant) and power outage mitigation measure 421C (i.e., the deployment of power generation vehicles to substations and a change in operational output) are implemented as typhoon countermeasures, but each may be implemented separately. System operation measure type 422B (a change in the operation of the power plant in Figure 11) may be another system operation measure described in the explanation of system operation measure candidate data 33. In addition to the deployment of power generation vehicles to substations, other power outage mitigation measures may also be implemented, such as demand reduction (demand response) and control of the charging and discharging of electric vehicles.

[0086] It is necessary to create a system that can select the optimal measure by combining the above measures, but the number of combinations is enormous, and there are many things that need to be considered, such as taking measures that do not significantly increase the risk of power outages even if the typhoon prediction is wrong. Therefore, it would be good to have an algorithm that combines reinforcement learning and other methods to narrow down and display the most optimal measures from the many measures.

[0087] Furthermore, because there are many transmission lines, there are countless combinations of transmission lines that can break. If calculations were to be carried out assuming all of these combinations, the calculation time would be enormous. Therefore, it is possible to reduce the number of cases assumed by setting conditions. One method for this reduction is to use occurrence probabilities that are above a certain level, but it is also possible to reduce the number of evaluation cases by using evaluation indicators other than probability, such as power outage risk, which is the probability of a line break multiplied by the amount of power outage that would occur if the line were to break, or power transmission risk, which is the probability of a line break multiplied by the amount of power flowing through the line.

[0088] Each typhoon countermeasure candidate can be specified using the typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data 42. Also, the reliability economic efficiency index value (reliability economic efficiency index value) for the typhoon countermeasure candidate can be calculated quantitatively and with high accuracy.

[0089] 12 is a diagram showing the configuration of reliability economic efficiency index value calculation result data 43 in the typhoon countermeasure calculation result data DB 40. The reliability economic efficiency index value calculation result data 43 is information indicating the reliability economic efficiency index value calculation result of the typhoon countermeasure for each typhoon countermeasure, and is associated with the typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data 42.

[0090] The reliability economic efficiency index value calculation result data 43 is composed of information such as a typhoon case name 431 corresponding to the typhoon case stored in the typhoon information selection result data 41 (see Figure 4), a typhoon countermeasure case name 432 corresponding to the typhoon countermeasure case (typhoon countermeasure case name 421) stored in the typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data 42 (see Figure 11), the countermeasure cost per time 433 required when the typhoon countermeasure case is implemented, the expected damage cost per time 434 when the typhoon countermeasure case is implemented, and a reliability economic efficiency index value 435 when the typhoon countermeasure case is implemented.

[0091] The cost 433 of each countermeasure required when implementing a typhoon countermeasure case is calculated by multiplying the cost 335 of the system operation countermeasure candidate data 33 corresponding to the system operation countermeasure implemented in the typhoon countermeasure case 421 by the difference between before and after the power plant output change (operation change). Additionally, additional costs incurred by deploying power supply vehicles to substations, etc. are also added.

[0092] The expected damage cost 434 per time when the typhoon countermeasure case is implemented is calculated as follows. First, the system stability (synchronization stability, voltage stability, frequency stability, overload, etc.) is evaluated by a system analysis that simulates the equipment damage that occurs in the typhoon case and the system operation measures that are implemented in the typhoon countermeasure case of the typhoon countermeasure case name 432 (typhoon countermeasure case CC1, CC2, etc.).

[0093] If synchronous stability or voltage stability cannot be maintained, a power outage will occur in the area being analyzed, and the cost 352 stored in the damage cost data 35 will be calculated. On the other hand, if the frequency drops, the amount of interruption of the load (substation) simulating the operation of an under frequency relay (UFR) is calculated, and the cost 352 stored in the damage cost data 35 will be calculated, assuming that a power outage will occur in the area being analyzed due to the substation being interrupted.

[0094] If an overload occurs, the cost 352 stored in the damage cost data 35 (FIG. 9) is calculated assuming that a power outage will occur at a substation connected downstream of the overloaded transmission line. Furthermore, the expected damage cost 434 per occurrence when the typhoon countermeasure case is implemented is calculated by multiplying the calculated damage cost by the probability of facility damage occurring in the typhoon case.

[0095] The reliability economic efficiency index value 435 when a typhoon countermeasure case is implemented is calculated as the weighted sum (weighted average value) of the weighting coefficients 362 stored in the corresponding reliability economic efficiency index data 36 for the countermeasure cost per time 433 and the expected damage cost per time 434 corresponding to the typhoon case with the typhoon case name 431 and the typhoon countermeasure case with the typhoon countermeasure case name 432, for example.

[0096] 12 shows that the result of implementing typhoon countermeasure case CC1, which has typhoon countermeasure case name 432, against typhoon case CT1, which has typhoon case name 431, is that the countermeasure cost is 50 million yen / time, the expected damage cost is 10 million yen / time, and the reliability economic efficiency index value is 150. Note that the calculation of countermeasure cost per time 433 required when implementing the typhoon countermeasure case, the expected damage cost per time when implementing the typhoon countermeasure case 434, and the reliability economic efficiency index value 435 when implementing the typhoon countermeasure case may each be obtained by methods other than those described above.

[0097] In addition, the countermeasure cost per time 433 required when implementing a typhoon countermeasure case and the expected damage cost per time 434 when implementing a typhoon countermeasure case may be a specific number of hours (for example, limited to only the time when the typhoon is making landfall on the Japanese mainland).

[0098] Using the reliability economic efficiency index value calculation result data 43, the reliability economic efficiency index values ​​for each typhoon case (CT1, CT2, etc.) and each typhoon countermeasure case (none, CC1, CC2, etc.) can be quantitatively calculated and compared.

[0099] 13 is a diagram showing the configuration of the typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44 in the typhoon countermeasure calculation result data DB 40. The typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44 is information that displays a list of the reliability economic efficiency index values ​​(reliability economic efficiency index values) of the typhoon cases for each typhoon countermeasure case, and information on the selection results of the typhoon countermeasure case.

[0100] The typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44 is composed of information on a typhoon countermeasure case name 441 corresponding to the typhoon countermeasure case of the typhoon countermeasure case name 432 stored in the reliability economics index value calculation result data 43 (Figure 12), the typhoon case of the typhoon case name 442, and a selection result 444 as a typhoon countermeasure for the reliability economics index value 435.

[0101] For example, the typhoon countermeasure case with the smallest sum of reliability and economic efficiency index values ​​443 for each typhoon case 442 in the typhoon countermeasure case name 441 is selected. For example, FIG. 13 shows that CC1 has been selected as the typhoon countermeasure case. Note that the typhoon countermeasure may also be selected by a method other than the above.

[0102] Using the typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44, it is possible to compare the calculation results of the reliability and economic efficiency index values ​​for each typhoon countermeasure case (none, CC1, CC2, etc.) and for each typhoon case, and it is possible to easily confirm the selection results and the reasons for the selection. In addition, it is possible to select typhoon countermeasures that can reduce countermeasure costs and damage costs, which can reduce social costs and improve power resilience.

[0103] Next, the processing flow of the typhoon countermeasure calculation unit 20 (see FIG. 2) of the power system planning and operation device 10 will be described with reference to FIG.

[0104] In step S1, the typhoon information selection unit 21 of the typhoon countermeasure calculation unit 20 uses the typhoon information data 31 to select typhoon information stored in the typhoon information data 31 (see Figure 6), and outputs the selection result as typhoon information selection result data 41.

[0105] In step S2, the typhoon information selection unit 21 of the typhoon countermeasure calculation unit 20 uses the typhoon information selection result data 41 and the system operation countermeasure candidate data 33 to calculate countermeasure candidate options related to system operation for the typhoon selected in step S1, and outputs the results as typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data 42 (see Figure 11).

[0106] In step S3, the reliability economics index value calculation unit 23 of the typhoon countermeasure calculation unit 20 uses the typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data 42, the system data 34, the damage cost data 35, and the reliability economics index data 36 to calculate the reliability economics index value for the typhoon countermeasure candidate calculated by the typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation unit 22, and outputs it as reliability economics index value calculation result data 43 (see Figure 12).

[0107] In step S4, the typhoon countermeasure decision unit 24 of the typhoon countermeasure calculation unit 20 determines whether or not there are any typhoon countermeasure candidates that have not been selected in step S2, based on the typhoon information selected in step S1. If there are any typhoon countermeasure candidates that have not been selected (YES in S4), the process returns to step S2. If there are no typhoon countermeasure candidates that have not been selected (NO in S4), the process proceeds to step S5.

[0108] In step S5, the typhoon countermeasure decision unit 24 determines whether or not there is any typhoon information that has not been selected in step S1. If there is any typhoon information that has not been selected (YES in S5), the process returns to step S1. If there is no typhoon information that has not been selected (NO in S5), the process proceeds to step S6.

[0109] In step S6, the typhoon countermeasure determination unit 24 determines typhoon countermeasures using the reliability economic efficiency index value calculation result data 43, and outputs the determined typhoon countermeasures as typhoon countermeasure determination result data 44 (see FIG. 13).

[0110] Through the above processing, the typhoon countermeasure calculation unit 20 can select typhoon countermeasures that reduce countermeasure costs and damage costs based on the reliability economics index value calculated from typhoon information data, candidate system operation countermeasure data, damage cost data, system data, and reliability economics index data, thereby achieving both reduced social costs and improved power resilience.

[0111] Next, examples of displays output to the display unit 105 by the display control unit 50 (see FIG. 2) of the typhoon countermeasure calculation unit 20 are shown in FIGS.

[0112] 15 shows typhoon cases 53 and typhoon details 54 in the typhoon information, and typhoon countermeasure candidate cases 55 and typhoon countermeasure candidate details 56 in the typhoon countermeasure candidate. The user can freely select these display data items. In addition, the display in FIG. 15 also displays a system diagram 51 and a legend 52, making it easy for users to understand the locations of potential typhoon countermeasures.

[0113] Figure 16 is another example of the display contents. Figure 16 displays typhoon countermeasure cases 57, date 59, time 510, contents 511, reliability economics index value calculation results 512, and typhoon countermeasure decision results 513 for system operation countermeasures. These display data items can be freely selected by the user. The display in FIG. 16 also displays a system diagram 51 and a legend 52, making it easy for users to understand the location of typhoon countermeasures. [Example]

[0114] Next, with reference to Figs. 17 and 18, an embodiment will be described in which the power system planning operation device 10 transmits typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44 (see Fig. 13) to a central load dispatching system (EMS), thereby reducing adjustment power operation costs and improving power resilience in the central load dispatching system.

[0115] FIG. 17 is a diagram illustrating the functional configuration of the power system planning and operation device 10 and the functional configuration of the central load control system 60 in the second embodiment.

[0116] The power system planning and operation device 10 in Fig. 17 differs from the power system planning and operation device 10 in Fig. 2 in that it adds a typhoon countermeasure transmission unit 25 that transmits typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44 decided by the typhoon countermeasure decision unit 24 to the central load dispatching system 60. Other configurations of the power system planning and operation device 10 are the same as those in Fig. 2, and therefore description thereof will be omitted here.

[0117] The central load control system 60 includes a database that stores typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44, supply and demand plan data 81, procurement adjustment capability data 82, and operation adjustment capability decision result data 72, and an operation adjustment capability determination unit 71.

[0118] The typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44 is information transmitted from the typhoon countermeasure transmission unit 25 of the power system planning and operation device 10.

[0119] The supply and demand plan data 81 is information relating to the power generation plan and the supply and demand plan provided to the general electricity transmission and distribution company by the power generation company and the retail company. The procurement adjustment capacity data 82 is information on the adjustment capacity procured in the supply and demand adjustment market. The operational adjustment capability determination result data 72 is information relating to the determination result of the operational adjustment capability.

[0120] The operational adjustment capacity determination unit 71 determines the adjustment capacity to be operated using the typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44, the supply and demand plan data 81, and the procurement adjustment capacity data 82, and outputs operational adjustment capacity determination result data 72.

[0121] In detail, the operational adjustment capability determination unit 71 predicts the imbalance between power generation and load from the supply and demand plan data 81, and determines, in merit order, the power plant output change amount that can adjust the imbalance from the adjustment capabilities stored in the procurement adjustment capability data 82 and the power plant output change amount stored in the typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44. Note that the method for determining the operational adjustment capability may be a method other than the above.

[0122] As a result, it is possible to operate the adjustment power in a way that not only suppresses supply-demand and frequency fluctuations due to imbalances between power generation and demand, but also reduces the adjustment power operation costs and improves power resilience.

[0123] FIG. 18 is a diagram showing a power system planning and operation system according to a second embodiment to which the power system planning and operation device 10 and the central load control system 60 described in FIG. 17 are applied. The power system planning and operation system of FIG. 18 differs from the power system planning and operation system of FIG. 3 in that a central load dispatching system 60 connected to the power system planning and operation device 10 via a network 300 is added.

[0124] In this embodiment, the power system planning and operation device 10 is capable of transmitting and receiving data with the central load control system 60 via the network 300, but the power system planning and operation device 10 may be an internal device of the central load control system 60, and may transmit and receive data via an internal communication network.

[0125] In addition, in this embodiment, an example has been described in which the typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44 is sent to the central load control system 60. However, instead of the central load control system 60, a grid stabilization system, a main load control system, a grid load control system, a market management system, etc. may also be used. [Example]

[0126] In contrast to the first embodiment, the third embodiment will explain a case in which statistical data of past typhoons, etc., is input instead of actual typhoon forecast data, and is used to reinforce substations and power transmission lines.

[0127] FIG. 19 is a diagram illustrating a functional configuration of the power system planning and operation device 10 according to the third embodiment.

[0128] The difference from the power system planning and operation device 10 described in Figure 2 is that the typhoon information data 31 is information indicating the path and scale of past typhoons, and by inputting a large amount of past typhoon data, the weak points of the power system are statistically identified.

[0129] Another difference is that the typhoon countermeasure calculation input data DB30 records system maintenance countermeasure candidate data 32, which will be described in detail later, and the typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation unit 22 calculates typhoon countermeasure candidate related to system operation for the typhoon information selected by the typhoon information selection unit 21 using the system maintenance countermeasure candidate data 32 and the system operation countermeasure candidate data 33, and outputs the result as typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation data 42 (see Figure 11).

[0130] Hereinafter, the system maintenance measure candidate data 32 and the typhoon measure candidate calculation result data 42 will be described in detail. First, the details of the system maintenance measure candidate data 32 will be explained with reference to Figs. 20A, 20B, and 20C.

[0131] FIG. 20A shows the configuration of the system maintenance measure candidate data 32 when the system maintenance measure type 321 is the addition of a power transmission line. In this case, the system improvement measure candidate data 32 stores information on the transmission line expansion case name 322A, such as the transmission line name 323A (transmission lines L1, L2, etc.), the number of circuits of the transmission line 324A (1, 2, etc.), the names of the substations at the sending and receiving ends of the transmission line 325A, and the cost of expanding the transmission line 326A.

[0132] Specifically, the transmission line expansion case with the transmission line expansion case name 322A CL1 in Figure 20A indicates that a transmission line L1 with one circuit connecting the sending end substation S1 and the receiving end substation S2 will be expanded at a cost of 100 billion yen.

[0133] FIG. 20B shows the configuration of the system maintenance measure candidate data 32 when the system maintenance measure type 321 is substation addition. In this case, the system improvement measure candidate data 32 stores information on the substation name 323B (substation S1, S2, etc.), the number of transformer banks at the substation 324B, and the cost of expanding the substation 325B for the substation expansion case name 322B (CS1, CS2, etc.).

[0134] Specifically, the substation expansion case in FIG. 20B with substation expansion case name 322B CS1 indicates that substation S1 with two banks will be expanded at a cost of 10 billion yen.

[0135] FIG. 20C shows the configuration of the system maintenance measure candidate data 32 when the system maintenance measure type 321 is the addition of a phase modifying facility. In this case, the system maintenance measure candidate data 32 stores information on the phase equipment expansion case (CY1, CY2, etc.) in the phase correcting equipment expansion case name 322C, the phase correcting equipment name (phase correcting Y1, Y2, etc.) in the phase correcting equipment name 323C, the number of phase correcting equipment 324C, the name of the substation where the phase correcting equipment will be expanded 325C, and the cost of expanding the phase correcting equipment 326C.

[0136] Specifically, the phase modifying equipment expansion case in which the phase modifying equipment expansion case name 322C in Fig. 20C is CY1 indicates that one phase modifying equipment Y1 is to be added to substation S1 at a cost of 50 million yen. Here, the phase modifying equipment is a power capacitor (SC: Static Condenser), a shunt reactor (ShR), etc.

[0137] The system improvement measure type 321 may be a system improvement measure other than the addition of a transmission line, a substation, and a phase modifying equipment, such as a direct current (HVDC) facility, a synchronous phase modifying machine, a static var compensator (SVC), a self-commutated SVC, a static var generator (SVG), a STATCOM (STATic synchronous compensator), a phase shifter, or other system improvement measures.

[0138] By providing the system improvement measure candidate data 32, it is possible to specify typhoon measure candidates related to system improvement. Also, it is possible to quantitatively and highly accurately calculate the reliability economic efficiency index value for the typhoon measure candidate.

[0139] Next, typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data 42 stored for each typhoon countermeasure case 421 and storing information on system maintenance countermeasures 421A and system operation countermeasures 421B will be described with reference to FIGS. 21A and 21B.

[0140] The system improvement measures 421A of the typhoon improvement measure candidate calculation result data 42 for which the typhoon improvement measure case 421 shown in Figure 21A is CC1 stores the following information: a transmission line expansion case name 422A when the system improvement measure type in the system improvement measure candidate data 32 is a transmission line expansion case name; a substation expansion case name 423A when the system improvement measure type is a substation expansion case name; and a phase correcting equipment expansion case name 424 when the system improvement measure type is a phase correcting equipment expansion case name.

[0141] In the system operation measures 421B of the typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data 42 shown in FIG. 21A, the system operation measures stored in the system operation measure candidate data 33 are stored for each system operation measure type 422B.

[0142] In detail, when the system operation measure type 422B is a change in the operation of a power plant, the system operation measure 421B stores, for each date and time 423B (date and time), the power plant name 424B, the pre-change output value, upper output limit value, lower output limit value, and post-change output value information 425B of the power plant.

[0143] The typhoon countermeasure case 421 shown in Figure 21B differs from Figure 21A in that the system improvement measures 421A in the typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data 42 for CC2 stores the system improvement measure candidate data 32 for the transmission line expansion case CL1 and the substation expansion case CS1.

[0144] Alternatively, the typhoon countermeasure case 421 shown in FIG. 21B indicates that there are no operational changes for system operation countermeasures in the typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data 42 for CC2 (the output of the power plant after the change remains unchanged from the current value).

[0145] Typhoon countermeasure case CC1 (Figure 21A) shows a case in which only system operation measures are taken as a typhoon countermeasure, and typhoon countermeasure case CC2 (Figure 21B) shows a case in which only system maintenance measures are taken as a typhoon countermeasure, but it goes without saying that both system operation measures and system maintenance measures can also be taken as typhoon countermeasures.

[0146] The system development measure type may be any other system development measure described in the explanation of the system development measure candidate data 32, and the system operation measure type may be any other system operation measure described in the explanation of the system operation measure candidate data 33.

[0147] As a result, it is possible to specify candidate typhoon countermeasures, and to quantitatively and accurately calculate the reliability economics index value (reliability economics index value) for the candidate typhoon countermeasures.

[0148] FIG. 22 is a diagram illustrating a hardware configuration of a power system planning and operation device 10 according to the third embodiment. 4 in that the typhoon countermeasure calculation input data DB 30 includes system maintenance countermeasure candidate data 32 and is stored in a storage device as a database. The other configurations are the same as those in FIG. 4, and therefore description thereof will be omitted. [Example]

[0149] Next, with reference to FIG. 23 , an example will be described in which the power system planning and operation device 10 transmits typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44 to a central load dispatching system (EMS), thereby reducing adjustment capability operation costs and improving power resilience in the central load dispatching system.

[0150] FIG. 23 is a diagram illustrating the functional configuration of the power system planning and operation device 10 and the functional configuration of the central load control system 60 according to the fourth embodiment.

[0151] The power system planning and operation device 10 in Fig. 23 differs from the power system planning and operation device 10 in Fig. 2 in Fig. 19 in that a typhoon countermeasure transmission unit 25 is added that transmits typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44 decided by the typhoon countermeasure decision unit 24 to a central load supply command system 60. Other configurations of the power system planning and operation device 10 are the same as those in Fig. 2, so their explanations will be omitted here. Furthermore, the central load supply command system 60 is the same as the central load supply command system 60 explained in Fig. 17, so their explanations will be omitted here.

[0152] According to the fourth embodiment, it is possible to suppress supply and demand and frequency fluctuations in response to the imbalance between power generation and demand, and to operate the adjustment power in a manner that can simultaneously reduce the adjustment power operation cost and improve power resilience. [Example]

[0153] Next, an embodiment will be described with reference to Figs. 24 and 25 in which the power system planning operation device 10 transmits typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44 to the system planning system, thereby reducing system planning costs and improving power resilience in the system planning system.

[0154] FIG. 24 is a diagram illustrating the functional configuration of the power system planning operation device 10 and the functional configuration of the power system planning system 1100 according to the fifth embodiment.

[0155] The power system planning and operation device 10 in Fig. 24 differs from the power system planning and operation device 10 in Fig. 19 in that a typhoon countermeasure transmission unit 25 is added that transmits typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44 decided by the typhoon countermeasure decision unit 24 to the power system planning system 1100. Other configurations of the power system planning and operation device 10 are the same as those in Fig. 19, and therefore description thereof will be omitted here.

[0156] The system planning system 1100 includes a database that stores typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44, supply and demand plan data 1301, and system data 34, a system equipment plan determination unit 1201, a system work suspension plan determination unit 1202, a system operation plan determination unit 1203, and a database that stores system equipment plan decision result data 1401, system work suspension plan decision result data 1402, and system operation plan decision result data 1403.

[0157] The typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44 is information transmitted from the typhoon countermeasure transmission unit 25 of the power system planning and operation device 10.

[0158] The supply and demand plan data 1301 is information relating to the power generation plan and the supply and demand plan provided to the general electricity transmission and distribution company by the power generation company and the retail company.

[0159] The system data 34 includes the system configuration, line impedance (R+jX), earth capacitance (susceptance: jB), data necessary for system configuration and state estimation (such as the threshold value of batt data), generator data, and other data necessary for power flow calculation, state estimation, and time series change calculation.

[0160] The system facility plan decision result data 1401 is information relating to the decision result of the facility plan for the system maintenance measures described in the system maintenance measure candidate data 32 .

[0161] The system work suspension plan determination result data 1402 is information relating to the determination result of the work suspension plan for the facility related to the system maintenance measures.

[0162] The system operation plan determination result data 1403 is information on the determination result of the operation plan of the facilities related to the system development measures.

[0163] The system equipment plan determination unit 1201 uses the typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44, the supply and demand plan data 81, and the system data 34 to determine an equipment plan for system development measures as explained in the system development measure candidate data 32, and outputs the system equipment plan determination result data 1401. The method for determining the equipment plan is, for example, to obtain an equipment plan that can maintain the system stability explained in the N-1 standard and the reliability economics index value calculation result data 43 and has low equipment expansion costs. Note that the method for determining the equipment plan may be a method other than the above.

[0164] The system work suspension plan determination unit 1202 determines a work suspension plan for equipment related to system maintenance measures using the system equipment plan determination result data 1401, and outputs system work suspension plan determination result data 1402. The method of determining the work suspension plan is, for example, to obtain a work suspension plan that can maintain the system stability and has low work suspension costs, as explained in the N-1 standard and reliability economics index value calculation result data 43. Note that the method of determining the work suspension plan may be a method other than the above.

[0165] The system operation plan determination unit 1203 determines an operation plan for equipment related to system maintenance measures using the system work suspension plan determination result data 1402, and outputs system operation plan determination result data 1403. The method of determining the operation plan is, for example, to obtain an operation plan that can maintain the system stability and has low operation costs as explained in the N-1 standard and reliability economics index value calculation result data 43. Note that the method of determining the operation plan may be a method other than the above.

[0166] As a result, it is possible to create a grid plan that not only meets the N-1 standard and maintains grid stability, but also reduces grid development costs and improves power resilience.

[0167] FIG. 25 is a diagram showing a power system planning and operation system according to a fifth embodiment to which the power system planning and operation device 10 and the power system planning system 1100 described in FIG. 24 are applied. The power system planning and operation system of FIG. 25 differs from the power system planning and operation system of FIG. 18 in that the central load dispatching system 60 is replaced with a power system planning system 1100 connected to the power system planning and operation device 10 via a network 300.

[0168] In this embodiment, the power system planning operation device 10 is capable of transmitting and receiving data to and from the system planning system 1100 via the network 300, but the power system planning operation device 10 may be an internal device of the system planning system 1100, and may transmit and receive data via an internal communication network.

[0169] In addition, in this embodiment, the power grid planning system 1100 has been used as an example of the destination of the typhoon countermeasure decision result data 44, but other systems such as a power grid stabilization system, a main power supply command system, a power grid power supply command system, and a market management system may also be used.

[0170] Furthermore, the present invention is not limited to the above-described examples, and various modifications are included. The above-described examples have been described in detail to clearly explain the present invention, and the present invention is not necessarily limited to those including all of the described configurations. Furthermore, it is possible to replace part of the configuration of one embodiment with the configuration of another embodiment, and it is also possible to add the configuration of another embodiment to the configuration of one embodiment. [Explanation of symbols]

[0171] 10 Power system planning and operation equipment 20 Typhoon Countermeasures Calculation Department 21 Typhoon Information Selection Section 22 Typhoon Countermeasures Candidate Calculation Department 23 Reliability economic index value calculation unit 24 Typhoon Countermeasures Decision-making Department 25 Typhoon Countermeasures Transmission Unit 30 Typhoon Countermeasures Calculation Input Data DB 31 Typhoon Information Data 32 Data on potential grid development measures 33 Data on potential grid operation measures 34 System Data 35 Damage Cost Data 36 Reliability Economic Index Data 40 Typhoon Countermeasures Calculation Results Data DB 41 Typhoon information selection result data 42 Calculation results data for potential typhoon countermeasures 43 Reliability economic index calculation results data 44 Typhoon Countermeasure Decision Results Data 50 Display control unit 60 Central Power Dispatch System 435 Reliability and economics index value 1100 System Planning System

Claims

1. a typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation unit that calculates typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data including a change value of the power plant output for each typhoon countermeasure case from typhoon information data including at least typhoon track information and wind speed and system operation countermeasure candidate data including power plant output information; a reliability economics index value calculation unit that calculates reliability economics index value calculation result data, which is an index value of reliability economics, from the typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data, system data indicating the system configuration, damage cost data accompanying power outages, and reliability economics index data indicating a weight for the impact of power outages; a typhoon countermeasure decision unit that calculates typhoon countermeasure decision result data from the reliability economic efficiency index value calculation result data; A power system planning and operation device comprising:

2. 2. The power system planning and operation device according to claim 1, The typhoon information data includes information on the course and wind speed of past typhoons. A power system planning and operation device characterized by:

3. 2. The power system planning and operation device according to claim 1, The typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation unit calculates the probability of a power transmission line being cut off from the probability of a power transmission tower being collapsed by a typhoon using a probability distribution function that indicates the relationship between wind speed and the probability of a power transmission tower collapsing, and calculates the typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data consisting of a change in the output of a power plant. A power system planning and operation device characterized by:

4. 2. The power system planning and operation device according to claim 1, The data on the candidate system operation measures includes at least one of system operation measures including a change in power plant output, a start / stop of a power plant, a change in substation tap, an opening / closing of a phase modifying device, and an opening / closing of a transmission line, and the operation costs thereof. A power system planning and operation device characterized by:

5. 2. The power system planning and operation device according to claim 1, The damage cost data is at least one of a power outage cost for each substation, a power outage cost for each customer, and a power outage cost for each customer type. A power system planning and operation device characterized by:

6. 2. The power system planning and operation device according to claim 1, The reliability economics index data indicates the weights of the countermeasure costs and the expected damage costs. A power system planning and operation device characterized by:

7. 2. The power system planning and operation device according to claim 1, The typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation result data includes at least either expansion details for system maintenance countermeasures or operation change details for system operation countermeasures. A power system planning and operation device characterized by:

8. 2. The power system planning and operation device according to claim 1, The reliability economic efficiency index value calculation result data includes the typhoon countermeasure case, the countermeasure cost of the typhoon countermeasure case for the typhoon countermeasure case, the expected damage cost in the typhoon countermeasure case, and the reliability economic efficiency index value. A power system planning and operation device characterized by:

9. 2. The power system planning and operation device according to claim 1, The typhoon countermeasure decision unit determines the typhoon countermeasure case that minimizes the sum of the reliability and economy index values ​​of the typhoon countermeasure cases as a selection result of the typhoon countermeasure. A power system planning and operation device characterized by:

10. 2. The power system planning and operation device according to claim 1, a typhoon countermeasure transmission unit that transmits the typhoon countermeasure decision result data obtained by the power system planning and operation device to any one of a central power supply command system, a power system planning system, a power system stabilization system, a main power supply command system, a power system power supply command system, and a market management system; A power system planning and operation device comprising:

11. 2. The power system planning and operation device according to claim 1, The power system planning and operation device is an internal device of any one of a central power supply command system, a power system planning system, a power system stabilization system, a main power supply command system, a power system power supply command system, and a market management system. A power system planning and operation device characterized by:

12. A power system planning and operation method for a power system, comprising: a typhoon countermeasure candidate calculation step for calculating countermeasure candidate calculation result data for each typhoon countermeasure case from typhoon information data including at least typhoon track information and wind speed, system operation countermeasure candidate data, and system maintenance countermeasure candidate data; a reliability economic efficiency index value calculation step for calculating reliability economic efficiency index calculation result data, which is an index value of reliability economic efficiency, from the countermeasure candidate calculation result data, system data indicating the system configuration, damage cost data associated with power outages, and reliability economic efficiency index data indicating a weight for the impact of power outages; and a typhoon countermeasure decision step of determining typhoon countermeasure decision result data from the reliability economic efficiency index calculation result data.

13. The power system planning and operation method according to claim 12, The data on the candidate system improvement measures includes one or more of the system improvement measures and their expansion costs, including the expansion of a transmission line, the expansion of a substation, the expansion of a phase modifying equipment, the expansion of a DC equipment, the expansion of a synchronous phase modifying machine, the expansion of a static var compensator, the expansion of a self-commutated SVC, the expansion of an SVG, the expansion of a STATCOM, and the expansion of a phase adjuster. A power system planning and operation method characterized by:

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