Energy conversion plan creation device, and energy conversion device control system and method

Abstract

The present invention improves energy conversion profitability. An energy conversion plan creation device according to one embodiment of the present invention comprises: a smoothing process unit that performs a smoothing process with respect to a prediction value of the electricity market price in a prescribed period in the future; and a plan creation unit that creates an energy conversion plan of an energy conversion device on the basis of the prediction value subjected to the smoothing process.

Description

Energy conversion plan creation device, energy conversion device control system and method

[0001] The present invention relates to an energy conversion plan creation device, an energy conversion device control system and a method.

[0002] Conventionally, electricity is traded in electricity markets such as spot markets. For example, in spot markets, the price of electricity traded in the electricity market (hereinafter also referred to as electricity market price) fluctuates every time slot (for example, in Japan, one time slot is 30 minutes) (i.e., different electricity market prices can be formed for each time slot).

[0003] Generally, the electricity market price is determined according to the balance of supply and demand of electricity, and is cheap when there is a surplus of electricity and expensive when there is a shortage of electricity. For example, a company that owns a storage battery can increase its profitability by charging the battery when the electricity market price is cheap and discharging the battery when the electricity market price is expensive.

[0004] For example, when using the spot market, a battery charging and discharging plan is created based on the predicted value of the electricity market price before the electricity market price becomes clear, the electricity used for charging is procured from the market, and the discharged electricity is sold to the market.

[0005] Patent No. 5579954

[0006] However, it is difficult to predict the electricity market price with high accuracy, and if the prediction of the electricity market price is wrong, it is not possible to increase profits sufficiently.

[0007] The present invention aims to improve the profitability of energy conversion.

[0008] An energy conversion plan creation device according to one embodiment of the present invention includes a smoothing processing unit that performs a smoothing process on a predicted value of the electricity market price for a predetermined future period, and a plan creation unit that creates an energy conversion plan for an energy conversion device based on the predicted value after the smoothing process.

[0009] According to the present invention, it is possible to improve the profitability of energy conversion.

[0010] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an overall configuration according to one embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 2 is a diagram showing a functional configuration of a control device according to one embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 3 is a flowchart of a process for creating an energy conversion plan according to one embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 4 is a sequence diagram of an energy conversion process based on an energy conversion plan according to one embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 5 is a diagram for explaining a difference between a case where smoothing processing is performed and a case where smoothing processing is not performed according to one embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 6 is a diagram for explaining a difference between a case where smoothing processing is performed and a case where smoothing processing is not performed according to one embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 7 is a diagram for explaining an example of application of an energy conversion plan according to one embodiment of the present invention to a virtual power plant. FIG. 8 is a diagram showing a hardware configuration of a control device according to one embodiment of the present invention.

[0011] Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

[0012] <Explanation of Terms> In this specification, "energy conversion" refers to at least one of converting fuel, etc. into electricity (e.g., charging) and converting electricity (electrical energy) into other energy sources (e.g., discharging). In this specification, an "energy conversion device" refers to at least one of a power generation device (e.g., a thermal power generation device, a fuel cell, etc.) that converts fuel, etc. into electricity, a power utilization device (e.g., a hydrogen production device, an air conditioner, a heat pump, etc.) that converts electricity into other energy sources, and a device that can both generate and utilize electricity (e.g., a storage battery, a hydroelectric power generation device, etc.). In this specification, an "energy conversion plan" refers to at least one of a plan for when and how much fuel, etc. will be converted into electricity (e.g., a charging plan) and a plan for when and how much electricity will be converted into other energy sources (e.g., a discharging plan). An "energy conversion plan" may be a plan that combines plans for conversion into electricity and plans for conversion from electricity by multiple energy conversion devices.

[0013] <System Configuration> Fig. 1 is a diagram showing the overall configuration according to one embodiment of the present invention. The energy conversion device control system 1 includes a control device 10 and an energy conversion device 20 controlled by the control device 10.

[0014] <<Control Device>> The control device 10 controls the energy conversion device 20 according to an energy conversion plan. The control device 10 can transmit and receive data to and from the energy conversion device 20 via any network. The control device 10 is composed of one or more computers.

[0015] The control device 10 includes an energy conversion plan creation device 11. The energy conversion plan creation device 11 performs a smoothing process on a predicted value of the electricity market price for a predetermined future period, and creates an energy conversion plan for the energy conversion device 20 based on the smoothed predicted value.

[0016] <<Energy Conversion Device>> The energy conversion device 20 is any device that converts energy (specifically, converts fuel or the like into electricity, or converts electricity into other energy). For example, the energy conversion device includes at least one of a storage battery, a hydrogen production device, and a power generation device (e.g., a thermal power generation device). The energy conversion device 20 operates in response to commands from the control device 10.

[0017] For example, if the energy conversion device 20 is a storage battery, the storage battery charges and discharges in response to commands from the control device 10. The storage battery may include an industrial storage battery, a home storage battery, an EV (Electric Vehicle), and the like.

[0018] For example, if the energy conversion device 20 is a hydrogen production device, the hydrogen production device adjusts the amount of hydrogen produced in response to a command from the control device 10. The hydrogen production device may include a water electrolysis device that produces hydrogen using electricity from renewable energy sources, an organic hydride production device, or the like.

[0019] The present invention can also be applied to a case where hydrogen produced in a hydrogen production apparatus using renewable energy is stored in a tank and then used to generate electricity in a power generation apparatus such as a fuel cell or hydrogen power generation apparatus.The present invention can also be applied to a case where organic hydride is produced in an organic hydride production apparatus using renewable energy, and hydrogen extracted from the organic hydride by a dehydrogenation reaction is introduced into a power generation apparatus to generate electricity.

[0020] For example, when the energy conversion device 20 is a power generation device (for example, a thermal power generation device), the power generation device adjusts the amount of power generation in response to a command from the control device 10 .

[0021] <Functional Configuration> Fig. 2 is a diagram showing the functional configuration of the control device 10 according to one embodiment of the present invention. The control device 10 can include a predicted value acquisition unit 111, a smoothing processing unit 112, a plan creation unit 113, an information acquisition unit 121, and a command unit 122. The control device 10 can function as the predicted value acquisition unit 111, the smoothing processing unit 112, the plan creation unit 113, the information acquisition unit 121, and the command unit 122 by executing a program.

[0022] The energy conversion plan creation device 11 can include a predicted value acquisition unit 111, a smoothing processing unit 112, and a plan creation unit 113. The energy conversion plan creation device 11 can function as the predicted value acquisition unit 111, the smoothing processing unit 112, and the plan creation unit 113 by executing a program.

[0023] The predicted value acquisition unit 111 acquires a predicted value of the electricity market price for a predetermined future period (for example, the next day, the next week, etc.).

[0024] Any method can be used to predict the electricity market price. For example, the method may be a method based on an electricity demand forecast or a power source operation status, or a method based on past performance using a method such as machine learning.

[0025] [Electricity Market Price] Here, the electricity market price will be described. The electricity market price is the price of electricity traded in the electricity market at a predetermined time. Note that the predetermined time may be a time period (i.e., a period of time from one time to another) or a time (i.e., a moment).

[0026] For example, the electricity market price is the price of electricity traded in the electricity market during a predetermined time period. For example, the predetermined time period is a time period of one unit (e.g., 30 minutes in Japan), which is a unit of trading in the electricity market (e.g., the spot market).

[0027] The smoothing processing unit 112 performs a smoothing process on the predicted value of the electricity market price for a predetermined future period acquired by the predicted value acquisition unit 111 .

[0028] Any method can be used as the smoothing method. For example, the smoothing process may be a moving average process or a smoothing process using a Gaussian filter. The width of the section used for the smoothing process may be any width, but is preferably within five frames before and after the reference frame, and more preferably about two to four frames before and after the reference frame.

[0029] In the moving average process, the average value of the predicted values ​​within an interval centered on a reference frame (for example, the simple average value of a plurality of frames within the interval) is calculated.

[0030] In the smoothing process using a Gaussian filter, a weighted average value is calculated for predicted values ​​within an interval centered on a reference frame, with weights being coefficients based on a kernel having a normal distribution shape.

[0031] The plan creation unit 113 creates an energy conversion plan for the energy conversion device 20 based on the predicted value of the electricity market price smoothed by the smoothing processing unit 112. For example, the plan creation unit 113 uses mathematical programming (mathematical optimization). For example, the objective function of the mathematical programming includes the sum, over a predetermined period (e.g., one day, one week, etc.), of the product of the predicted value of the electricity market price smoothed by the smoothing processing and the amount of charged / discharged electricity for each time period. Note that each time period may be a time period (i.e., a time span from one time to another) or may be a time period (i.e., a moment).

[0032] The objective function of the mathematical programming (for a one-day plan with 30-minute time periods) is expressed by the following formula: c_i is the predicted value of the smoothed electricity market price at time i, and E_i is the amount of charged / discharged electricity at time i.

[0033]

[0034] The constraints in the mathematical programming may include the maximum value of charge / discharge power, continuity of the SoC (State of charge) of the storage battery, and upper and lower limits of the SoC of the storage battery.

[0035] [Energy Conversion Plan] Here, the energy conversion plan will be described. For example, the energy conversion plan is either a plan for the next day (i.e., a one-day plan) or a plan for the next week (i.e., a one-week plan).

[0036] For example, the energy conversion plan is a plan for charging and discharging the storage battery, and is created based on the predicted value of the electricity market price smoothed by the smoothing processing unit 112 and the SoC of the storage battery.

[0037] For example, the energy conversion plan is a hydrogen production plan for a hydrogen production device. The energy conversion plan is created based on the predicted value of the electricity market price smoothed by the smoothing processing unit 112, the hydrogen inventory amount, and the hydrogen demand forecast value.

[0038] For example, the energy conversion plan is a power generation plan for a power generation device. The energy conversion plan is created based on the predicted value of the electricity market price, the fuel price, the fuel inventory amount, and the power demand forecast value, which have been smoothed by the smoothing processing unit 112.

[0039] [Multiple energy conversion plans] For example, the energy conversion device 20 includes a storage battery, a hydrogen production device, and a power generation device, and the plan creation unit 113 can create a charging plan and a discharging plan for the storage battery based on the SoC of the storage battery, create a hydrogen production plan for the hydrogen production device based on the hydrogen demand forecast value, and create a power generation plan for the power generation device based on the power demand forecast value.

[0040] For example, the energy conversion device 20 includes a hydrogen production device, an organic hydride production device, and a power generation device, and the plan creation unit 113 can create a hydrogen production plan for the hydrogen production device, an organic hydride production plan for the organic hydride production device, and a power generation plan for the power generation device based on the hydrogen demand forecast value and the power demand forecast value.

[0041] The information acquisition unit 121 acquires information about the energy conversion device 20 from the energy conversion device 20 .

[0042] The command unit 122 controls the energy conversion device 20 in accordance with the energy conversion plan of the energy conversion device 20 created by the plan creation unit 113. Specifically, the command unit 122 commands the energy conversion device 20 to convert energy in accordance with the energy conversion plan of the energy conversion device 20 created by the plan creation unit 113.

[0043] <Processing Method> FIG. 3 is a flowchart of a process for creating an energy conversion plan according to one embodiment of the present invention.

[0044] In step 1 (S1), the predicted value acquisition unit 111 acquires a predicted value of the electricity market price for a predetermined future period.

[0045] In step 2 (S2), the smoothing processing unit 112 performs a smoothing process on the predicted value of the electricity market price for a predetermined future period acquired in S1.

[0046] In step 3 (S3), the plan creation unit 113 creates an energy conversion plan for the energy conversion device 20 based on the predicted values ​​that have been smoothed in S2.

[0047] FIG. 4 is a sequence diagram of an energy conversion process based on an energy conversion plan according to one embodiment of the present invention.

[0048] In step 11 (S11), the energy conversion plan creation device 11 executes a process of creating an energy conversion plan for the energy conversion device 20 (S1 to S3 in FIG. 3).

[0049] In step 12 ( S12 ), the energy conversion plan creation device 11 sends the energy conversion plan for the energy conversion device 20 created in S11 to the command unit 122 .

[0050] In step 13 (S13), the command unit 122 controls the energy conversion device 20 in accordance with the energy conversion plan of S12. Specifically, the command unit 122 commands the energy conversion device 20 to convert energy in accordance with the energy conversion plan of S12.

[0051] In step 14 ( S14 ), the energy conversion device 20 converts energy in response to a command from the command unit 122 .

[0052] FIG. 5 is a diagram for explaining the difference between the case where smoothing processing is performed and the case where smoothing processing is not performed according to one embodiment of the present invention.

[0053] Figure 5 shows the revenue results of price differential trading based on a charge / discharge simulation for the period from April 1, 2023 to September 30, 2023, when price differential trading is conducted in the spot market of the Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX) using a storage battery with a rated output of 5 MW and a rated capacity of 10 MWh. In all examples and comparative examples, the predicted value of S1 in Figure 3 is the spot market price as of 8:00 a.m. on the previous day, which was obtained from an external institution.

[0054] The comparative example shows the results when the smoothing process in S2 of FIG. 3 is not performed.

[0055] Examples 1-1 to 1-4 show the results when smoothing processing is performed by simple averaging the interval from one frame before and after to four frames before and after.

[0056] Examples 2-1 to 2-4 show the results of smoothing processing by applying a Gaussian filter to one frame before and one frame after the other to four frames before and one frame after the other.

[0057] In all examples, the number of charge / discharge cycles per day ("Number of charge / discharge cycles per day" in FIG. 5) decreased, while the price differential trading revenue ("Price differential trading revenue per day" in FIG. 5) and revenue per discharge amount ("Revenue per discharge amount" in FIG. 5) increased, indicating that profitability can be improved by performing appropriate smoothing processing. This indicates that deterioration due to the charge / discharge of the storage battery is suppressed, while at the same time, the damage to price differential trading revenue due to incorrect predictions of the electricity market price is suppressed, and that the expected effects are being achieved.

[0058] FIG. 6 is a diagram for explaining the difference between the case where smoothing processing is performed and the case where smoothing processing is not performed according to one embodiment of the present invention.

[0059] - "Actual spot market price" indicates the price of electricity actually traded in the electricity market. - "Spot market price forecast (before smoothing)" indicates the predicted value of the electricity market price without smoothing processing. - "Spot market price forecast (after smoothing: Example 1-2)" indicates the predicted value of the electricity market price after smoothing processing using a simple average of the two frames before and after. - "Charge / discharge amount (comparison example)" indicates the charge / discharge amount plan created based on the predicted value of the electricity market price without smoothing processing. - "Charge / discharge amount (Example 1-2)" indicates the charge / discharge amount plan created based on the predicted value of the electricity market price after smoothing processing using a simple average of the two frames before and after.

[0060] As shown in Figure 6A, if smoothing processing is not performed, charging and discharging will occur based on small price differences in the predicted value of the electricity market price. However, in actual electricity market prices, such small price differences rarely occur as predicted, and as a result, as shown in Figure 6A, the average price during discharging is lower than the average price during charging, often resulting in a negative balance due to charging and discharging. By performing smoothing processing, small price differences in the predicted value of the electricity market price are averaged out, and as a result, it is possible to reduce such small charging and discharging and price difference trading that cannot be expected to predict accurately.

[0061] As shown in Figure 6b, when a series of time slots show a predicted electricity market price of 0.01 yen / kWh, the probability that the price will actually be 0.01 yen / kWh varies from time to time. The first and last time slots in the series of 0.01 yen / kWh periods are considered to have a low probability of actually being 0.01 yen / kWh. However, when this predicted data is used to create a plan, the difference in the probability of actually being 0.01 yen / kWh is usually not taken into account, resulting in a plan to charge using a random time slot. By performing smoothing processing, the first and last time slots in the series of 0.01 yen / kWh periods are averaged with the prices of the previous and next time slots, resulting in a predicted price higher than 0.01 yen / kWh. This allows for a plan to charge near the center of the series of 0.01 yen / kWh periods, increasing the likelihood of creating a plan to charge at a time when the electricity market price is likely to be 0.01 yen / kWh.

[0062] 7 is a diagram illustrating an example of application of an energy conversion plan to a virtual power plant according to an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in FIG. 7, the energy conversion plan created by the energy conversion plan creation device 11 may be a plan for converting energy used by a virtual power plant (VPP) 2 that buys and sells electricity in the electricity market system 4.

[0063] For example, each of the multiple control devices 10 can create an energy conversion plan for each of the multiple energy conversion devices 20 controlled by the control device 10. Note that the integrated control device 3 may also include an energy conversion plan creation device 11 (in this case, the integrated control device 3 can create an energy conversion plan for each of the multiple energy conversion devices 20 controlled by each of the multiple control devices 10).

[0064] In this way, by creating a plan for the energy conversion of multiple energy conversion devices 20 (specifically, at least one of converting fuel, etc. into electricity and converting electricity into other energy sources), it is possible to collectively manage multiple energy conversion devices 20 and adjust supply and demand (when the electricity market price is low, electricity is converted into other energy sources, and when the electricity market price is high, fuel, etc. is converted into electricity).

[0065] Specifically, it is possible to combine and control the targets of supply and demand adjustment (i.e., the energy conversion devices 20) according to the predicted value of the electricity market price that has been smoothed. For example, when the electricity market price is low, in addition to charging the storage battery, the water electrolysis device and the organic hydride production device are controlled taking into account the remaining hydrogen in the hydrogen tank and the organic hydride tank, etc. When the electricity market price is high, it is possible to perform integrated management such as discharging the storage battery and generating electricity using hydrogen and organic hydride.

[0066] <Effects> In one embodiment of the present invention, fluctuations in the electricity market price are taken into consideration, thereby reducing energy costs and improving energy efficiency. Specifically, by performing a smoothing process on the predicted value of the electricity market price, it is possible to extract and reflect price trends with high prediction accuracy (i.e., rough trends in fluctuations in the electricity market price) in charging and discharging, while suppressing wasteful charging and discharging caused by taking into consideration small price differences with low prediction accuracy (i.e., fine trends in fluctuations in the electricity market price).

[0067] With the spread of solar power generation, electricity market prices are shown as a curve, with lower prices during the day and higher prices in the evening. While the general trends in electricity market price fluctuations can be predicted with relatively high accuracy, it is difficult to accurately predict the detailed trends in electricity market price fluctuations. For example, a typical method for creating a battery charge / discharge plan is to create a charge / discharge plan when a certain value difference in the electricity market price is predicted. This method creates a charge / discharge plan without distinguishing between electricity market prices with low prediction accuracy (i.e., the detailed trends in electricity market price fluctuations) and electricity market prices with high prediction accuracy (i.e., the general trends in electricity market price fluctuations), resulting in unnecessary charging / discharging and ultimately reducing profitability. By smoothing the predicted value of the electricity market price as in the present invention, profitability can be improved.

[0068] <Hardware Configuration> Fig. 8 is a diagram showing the hardware configuration of the control device 10 according to one embodiment of the present invention. The same applies to the energy conversion plan creation device 11.

[0069] The control device 10 can include a control unit 1001, a main memory unit 1002, an auxiliary memory unit 1003, an input unit 1004, an output unit 1005, and an interface unit 1006. Each of these will be described below.

[0070] The control unit 1001 is a processor (for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a GPU (Graphics Processing Unit), etc.) that executes various programs installed in the auxiliary storage unit 1003 .

[0071] The main memory unit 1002 includes a non-volatile memory (Read Only Memory (ROM)) and a volatile memory (Random Access Memory (RAM)). The ROM stores various programs, data, etc. required for the control unit 1001 to execute various programs installed in the auxiliary memory unit 1003. The RAM provides a working area into which the various programs installed in the auxiliary memory unit 1003 are expanded when executed by the control unit 1001.

[0072] The auxiliary storage unit 1003 is an auxiliary storage device that stores various programs and information used when the various programs are executed.

[0073] The input unit 1004 is an input device through which the operator of the control device 10 inputs various instructions to the control device 10 .

[0074] The output unit 1005 is an output device that outputs the internal state of the control device 10 and the like.

[0075] The interface unit 1006 is a communication device for connecting to a network and communicating with other devices.

[0076] Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described in detail above, the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments described above, and various modifications and changes are possible within the scope of the gist of the present invention.

[0077] [Appendix] This specification discloses at least the devices, systems, methods, programs, and storage media described in the appendices below. (Appendix 1) An energy conversion plan creation device comprising: a smoothing processing unit that performs a smoothing process on predicted values ​​of electricity market prices for a predetermined future period; and a plan creation unit that creates an energy conversion plan for an energy conversion device based on the smoothed predicted values. (Appendix 2) The energy conversion plan creation device described in (Appendix 1), in which the smoothing process is a moving average process. (Appendix 3) The energy conversion plan creation device described in (Appendix 1) or (Appendix 2), in which the electricity market is a spot market. (Appendix 4) The energy conversion plan creation device described in (Appendix 3), in which the smoothing process uses up to five frames before and after a reference frame. (Supplementary Note 5) The energy conversion plan creation device according to any one of (Supplementary Note 1) to (Supplementary Note 4), wherein mathematical programming is used in the energy conversion plan, and an objective function of the mathematical programming includes a sum, over the predetermined period, of products of the smoothed predicted value for each time period and the amount of charge and discharge power. (Supplementary Note 6) The energy conversion plan creation device according to any one of (Supplementary Note 1) to (Supplementary Note 5), wherein the energy conversion plan is a plan that combines plans for conversion into power and plans for conversion from power by a plurality of energy conversion devices. (Supplementary Note 7) The energy conversion plan creation device according to any one of (Supplementary Note 1) to (Supplementary Note 6), wherein the energy conversion plan is a plan for charging and discharging a storage battery. (Supplementary Note 8) The energy conversion plan creation device according to (Supplementary Note 7), wherein the energy conversion plan is a plan for charging and discharging a storage battery. (Supplementary Note 9) The energy conversion plan creation device according to any one of (Supplementary Note 1) to (Supplementary Note 8), wherein the energy conversion plan is a hydrogen production plan for a hydrogen production device and is created based on a hydrogen demand forecast value. (Supplementary Note 10) The energy conversion plan creation device according to any one of (Supplementary Note 1) to (Supplementary Note 9), wherein the energy conversion plan is a power generation plan for a power generation device and is created based on a power demand forecast value.(Supplementary Note 11) The energy conversion plan creation device according to any one of (Supplementary Note 1) to (Supplementary Note 10), wherein the energy conversion device includes a storage battery, a hydrogen production device, and a power generation device, and the plan creation unit creates a charging plan and a discharging plan for the storage battery based on the SoC of the storage battery, creates a hydrogen production plan for the hydrogen production device based on a predicted hydrogen demand value, and creates a power generation plan for the power generation device based on a predicted power demand value. (Supplementary Note 12) The energy conversion plan creation device according to any one of (Supplementary Note 1) to (Supplementary Note 11), wherein the energy conversion device includes a storage battery, a hydrogen production device, and a power generation device, and the plan creation unit creates a hydrogen production plan for the hydrogen production device, an organic hydride production plan for the organic hydride production device, and a power generation plan for the power generation device based on a predicted hydrogen demand value and a predicted power demand value. (Supplementary Note 13) The energy conversion plan creation device according to any one of (Supplementary Note 1) to (Supplementary Note 12), wherein the energy conversion device includes a hydrogen production device, an organic hydride production device, and a power generation plan for the power generation device based on a predicted hydrogen demand value and a predicted power demand value. (Supplementary Note 14) An energy conversion device control system including a control device and an energy conversion device controlled by the control device, wherein the control device comprises: a smoothing processing unit that performs a smoothing process on a predicted value of an electricity market price for a predetermined future period; a plan creation unit that creates an energy conversion plan for the energy conversion device based on the smoothed predicted value; and a command unit that controls the energy conversion device in accordance with the energy conversion plan. (Supplementary Note 15) A method executed by an energy conversion device control system including a control device and an energy conversion device controlled by the control device, the method comprising: the control device performing a smoothing process on a predicted value of an electricity market price for a predetermined future period; the control device creating an energy conversion plan for the energy conversion device based on the smoothed predicted value; and the control device controlling the energy conversion device in accordance with the energy conversion plan. (Supplementary Note 16) A program that causes a computer to execute the method of (Supplementary Note 15), or a storage medium that stores a program.

[0078] This international application claims priority based on Japanese Patent Application No. 2024-048945, filed on March 26, 2024, the entire contents of which are incorporated herein by reference.

[0079] REFERENCE SIGNS LIST 1 Energy conversion device control system 2 Virtual power plant 3 Integrated control device 4 Electricity market system 10 Control device 11 Energy conversion plan creation device 20 Energy conversion device 111 Prediction value acquisition unit 112 Smoothing processing unit 113 Plan creation unit 121 Information acquisition unit 122 Command unit 1001 Control unit 1002 Main memory unit 1003 Auxiliary memory unit 1004 Input unit 1005 Output unit 1006 Interface unit

Claims

1. An energy conversion plan creation device comprising: a smoothing processing unit that performs a smoothing process on a predicted value of an electricity market price for a predetermined future period; and a plan creation unit that creates an energy conversion plan for an energy conversion device based on the predicted value after the smoothing process.

2. The energy conversion plan creation device according to claim 1, wherein the smoothing process is a moving average process.

3. The energy conversion plan creation device according to claim 1, wherein the electricity market is a spot market.

4. The energy conversion plan creation device according to claim 3, wherein the smoothing process uses up to five frames before and after the reference frame.

5. The energy conversion plan creation device according to claim 1, wherein mathematical programming is used in the energy conversion plan, and the objective function of the mathematical programming includes the sum, over the specified period, of the products of the smoothed predicted values ​​for each time period and the amounts of charging and discharging electric power.

6. The energy conversion plan creation device according to claim 1, wherein the energy conversion plan is a plan that combines plans for conversion into electricity and plans for conversion from electricity by a plurality of energy conversion devices.

7. The energy conversion plan creation device according to claim 1, wherein the energy conversion plan is a plan for charging and discharging a storage battery.

8. The energy conversion plan creation device according to claim 7, wherein the energy conversion plan is created based on the SoC of the storage battery.

9. The energy conversion plan creation device according to claim 1, wherein the energy conversion plan is a hydrogen production plan for a hydrogen production device and is created based on a hydrogen demand forecast value.

10. The energy conversion plan creation device according to claim 1, wherein the energy conversion plan is a power generation plan for a power generation device and is created based on a predicted value of power demand.

11. The energy conversion plan creation device according to claim 1, wherein the energy conversion device includes a storage battery, a hydrogen production device, and a power generation device, and the plan creation unit creates a charging plan and a discharging plan for the storage battery based on the SoC of the storage battery, creates a hydrogen production plan for the hydrogen production device based on a hydrogen demand forecast value, and creates a power generation plan for the power generation device based on a power demand forecast value.

12. The energy conversion plan creation device described in claim 1, wherein the energy conversion device includes a hydrogen production device, an organic hydride production device, and a power generation device, and the plan creation unit creates a hydrogen production plan for the hydrogen production device, an organic hydride production plan for the organic hydride production device, and a power generation plan for the power generation device based on a hydrogen demand forecast value and an electric power demand forecast value.

13. The energy conversion plan creation device according to claim 1, wherein the energy conversion plan is either a plan for the next day or a plan for the next week.

14. An energy conversion device control system including a control device and an energy conversion device controlled by the control device, wherein the control device comprises: a smoothing processing unit that performs a smoothing process on a predicted value of the electricity market price for a predetermined future period; a plan creation unit that creates an energy conversion plan for the energy conversion device based on the smoothed predicted value; and a command unit that controls the energy conversion device in accordance with the energy conversion plan.

15. A method executed by an energy conversion device control system including a control device and an energy conversion device controlled by the control device, the method including: the control device performing a smoothing process on a predicted value of the electricity market price for a predetermined future period; the control device creating an energy conversion plan for the energy conversion device based on the smoothed predicted value; and the control device controlling the energy conversion device in accordance with the energy conversion plan.

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