A multi-time scale power supply guarantee analysis method and system

Abstract

The application provides a multi-time scale power supply guarantee analysis method and system, which comprises the following steps: collecting load parameters in a system to be studied; performing load characteristic analysis and new energy characteristic analysis based on the load parameters to obtain preliminary typical day simulation analysis results; performing typical day simulation calculation based on the preliminary typical day simulation analysis results to obtain an intraday power supply guarantee result, and ending the power supply guarantee analysis if the system has no power shortage; if there is a power shortage, performing the next step of analysis; if there is a power shortage, performing monthly power balance calculation to measure seasonal power shortage, and formulating a seasonal power supply guarantee scheme; after the seasonal power supply guarantee scheme is adopted to ensure seasonal power balance, performing continuous multi-day power balance calculation to measure continuous multi-day peak shaving demand, formulating a continuous multi-day power supply guarantee scheme according to the size of the extreme weather power shortage, and performing typical day simulation analysis again if there is no power shortage. The method can quantitatively analyze the peak demand of different time scales in the system during the power supply guarantee period, and provide support for power source planning.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of power system planning, and in particular to a multi-timescale power supply guarantee analysis method and system. Background Technology

[0002] Driven by the dual-carbon strategy, the construction of a new power system is accelerating. Building such a system is a highly innovative and challenging systems engineering project, requiring a balanced approach to development and security, clean energy transition and power supply, and existing and new power resources. The issue of power supply security is becoming increasingly prominent. Existing methods for power supply security analysis typically only calculate the power balance at a single moment, and the proposed measures may not be targeted effectively. This new method can quantitatively analyze peak demand in the system at different time scales and provide support for further solutions to the power supply security problem. Summary of the Invention

[0003] This invention proposes a multi-timescale power supply guarantee analysis method and system. The method of this invention can quantitatively calculate the peak demand for power supply guarantee at different time scales of the system, and has the characteristics of convenient and fast calculation.

[0004] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention adopts the following technical solution:

[0005] A multi-timescale power supply guarantee analysis method includes:

[0006] Load parameters within the system under study are collected, and load characteristic analysis and new energy characteristic analysis are performed based on the load parameters to obtain preliminary typical daily simulation analysis results.

[0007] Based on the preliminary typical day simulation analysis results, typical day simulation calculations are performed to obtain the intraday power supply guarantee results. If the system does not lack power, the power supply guarantee analysis ends; if it does, the next step of analysis is performed.

[0008] If there is a power shortage, perform monthly power balance calculations to estimate seasonal power shortages and formulate seasonal power supply plans. After implementing seasonal power supply plans to ensure seasonal power balance, perform multi-day power balance calculations to estimate multi-day peak demand and formulate multi-day power supply plans based on the magnitude of power shortages caused by extreme weather. If there is no power shortage, perform a typical day simulation analysis again.

[0009] As a further improvement of the present invention, the load parameters include load, DC transmission, power generation capacity, power regulation capability, and new energy output characteristics.

[0010] As a further improvement of the present invention, the load characteristic analysis includes:

[0011] Based on historical or predicted load characteristics, generate planned year load data according to load forecast results.

[0012] Analyze the monthly power distribution characteristics of the load, statistically extract the monthly power distribution coefficient of the load, and conduct monthly power balance analysis;

[0013] Analyze the load and electricity deviation during consecutive extreme weather events, statistically extract the monthly consecutive day high load coefficient, generate consecutive day extreme high load scenarios, and conduct monthly consecutive day power supply guarantee analysis.

[0014] We selected typical day load curves for extreme weather conditions, including the maximum load day and maximum daily load power of the month for generating power supply control, and conducted typical day power supply analysis. For some provinces with two load peaks in winter and summer, we analyzed the summer and winter situations.

[0015] As a further improvement of the present invention, the analysis of new energy characteristics includes:

[0016] Based on the historical operating characteristics of new energy sources or the characteristics of resource simulation, generate new energy output data for the planning year according to the new energy installed capacity forecast results.

[0017] The monthly distribution characteristics of renewable energy power were analyzed, the monthly distribution coefficient of renewable energy power was statistically extracted, and a monthly power balance analysis was conducted.

[0018] Analyze the offset of renewable energy power generation during consecutive extreme weather events, statistically extract the renewable energy small generation coefficient for consecutive days, generate consecutive days of extreme renewable energy small generation scenarios, and conduct monthly consecutive days of power supply guarantee analysis.

[0019] We selected typical daily power generation curves for new energy sources corresponding to 100% guarantee rate and conventional guarantee rate, so that the daily power generation can reflect extreme low power generation scenarios and the power balance control period can reflect the guaranteed output, and conducted typical daily power supply guarantee analysis.

[0020] As a further improvement of the present invention, the step of performing typical day simulation calculations based on preliminary typical day simulation analysis results to obtain intraday supply guarantee results includes the following steps:

[0021] Choose between a minimum reserve and a new energy reserve;

[0022] Using the day as the calculation duration and the hour as the minimum time scale, a typical daily simulation calculation is performed, with the goal of minimizing the maximum daily power shortage, to determine the working output of various power sources;

[0023] The scenario selection is the peak load day of the month for power balance control, encountering a scenario with small-scale renewable energy generation.

[0024] The analysis is conducted using a 100% guarantee rate scenario for new energy sources, and the minimum reserve is calculated as described above. If other guarantee rate scenarios are adopted, new energy reserves are set so that the total system reserve can cover the uncertainty of new energy output and ensure consistent power balance results.

[0025] For power sources with limited energy, priority should be given to hydropower, followed by pumped storage, and finally, new energy storage should be allocated to different locations. The power gap or reduction in thermal power generation caused by the addition of different energy storage sources should be used as the power balancing capacity of the energy storage source.

[0026] As a further improvement of the present invention, if there is a power shortage, a monthly power balance calculation is performed to calculate the seasonal power shortage and formulate a seasonal power supply guarantee plan, as follows:

[0027] a) Based on the annual load characteristics, hydrological characteristics, reserve capacity, thermal power disruptions, and guaranteed output of new energy sources, and in conjunction with the annual maintenance area requirements, the thermal power maintenance capacity should be reasonably arranged, and the maximum output and minimum start-up capacity of thermal power should be determined for each month.

[0028] b) When the scale of energy storage power sources is large or the curtailment rate of new energy is high, energy storage losses and new energy curtailment should be considered.

[0029] c) If the system has a monthly power shortage, formulate an economical and reasonable seasonal power supply plan based on the system situation;

[0030] d) Select seasonal supply guarantee measures or plans based on energy resource endowment.

[0031] As a further improvement of the present invention, the step of performing continuous multi-day power balance calculation, measuring continuous multi-day peak-shaving demand, and formulating a continuous multi-day power supply guarantee plan based on the magnitude of power shortage due to extreme weather conditions is as follows:

[0032] a) The scenario for ensuring power supply for multiple consecutive days is the scenario of high load for multiple consecutive days encountering continuous extreme weather and small-scale renewable energy generation.

[0033] b) When the scale of energy storage power is large or the curtailment rate of new energy is high, a certain proportion of energy storage loss and new energy curtailment shall be considered.

[0034] c) If the system experiences a continuous power shortage for several days, formulate an economical and reasonable power supply guarantee plan for several consecutive days based on the system situation, and propose the priority order for the application of upward peak adjustment measures for several consecutive days.

[0035] d) Based on energy resource endowment, select measures or plans for continuous supply over multiple days.

[0036] A multi-timescale power supply guarantee analysis system includes:

[0037] The typical day analysis module is used to collect load parameters within the system under study, perform load characteristic analysis and new energy characteristic analysis based on the load parameters, and obtain preliminary typical day simulation analysis results.

[0038] The power supply analysis module is used to perform typical day simulation calculations based on the preliminary typical day simulation analysis results to obtain the daily power supply results. If the system does not lack power, the power supply analysis ends; if it does, the next step of analysis is performed.

[0039] The scheme formulation module is used to perform monthly power balance calculations and calculate seasonal power shortages if there is a power shortage, and formulate seasonal power supply guarantee schemes. After the seasonal power supply guarantee schemes are implemented to ensure seasonal power balance, the module performs continuous multi-day power balance calculations, calculates continuous multi-day peak-shaving demand, and formulates continuous multi-day power supply guarantee schemes based on the size of power shortages caused by extreme weather. If there is no power shortage, a typical day simulation analysis is performed again.

[0040] A multi-timescale power supply guarantee analysis device, comprising:

[0041] memory,

[0042] processor,

[0043] The processor is configured to execute the multi-timescale power supply guarantee analysis method.

[0044] A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, when the instructions in the storage medium are executed by a processor, the processor is able to execute the multi-timescale power supply analysis method.

[0045] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are:

[0046] This invention proposes a multi-timescale power supply guarantee analysis method. For the power generation system under study, a typical daily analysis is conducted based on typical load and new energy scenarios to obtain intraday supply guarantee results. If a power shortage exists, further seasonal and continuous multi-day supply guarantee analyses are required. Based on the system's peak demand obtained from the analysis, reasonable measures are taken to meet the supply guarantee requirements. This method can quantitatively analyze the peak demand of the system at different time scales during supply guarantee, providing support for power planning. Attached Figure Description

[0047] Figure 1This is a flowchart of the strategy of the present invention;

[0048] Figure 2 This is a monthly comparison chart of daily electricity consumption and load.

[0049] Figure 3 This is a monthly comparison chart of daily power generation from new energy sources;

[0050] Figure 4 This is a typical daily load and new energy daily curve chart;

[0051] Figure 5 This is a simulation diagram of typical daily production in 2025 (for internal use only, with 100% guaranteed output from wind and solar power).

[0052] Figure 6 This is an analysis of the power shortage in 2025 (domestic use only, with 100% guaranteed output from new energy sources);

[0053] Figure 7 This is the monthly distribution of hydropower consumption in 2025 (for internal use only);

[0054] Figure 8 This is the monthly electricity distribution of new energy sources in 2025 (for internal use only);

[0055] Figure 9 This is the monthly electricity supply and demand distribution for 2025 (for internal use only);

[0056] Figure 10 This is a schematic diagram of a typical daily production simulation in December 2025 (for internal use only).

[0057] Figure 11 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of a multi-timescale power supply guarantee analysis system according to the present invention;

[0058] Figure 12 This is a schematic diagram of an electronic device structure according to the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0059] To enable those skilled in the art to better understand the technical solutions of this invention, the technical solutions of the embodiments of this invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of this invention, and not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of this invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort should fall within the scope of protection of this invention.

[0060] like Figure 1 As shown, this invention provides a multi-timescale power supply guarantee analysis method, including the following steps:

[0061] 1) Collect data on load, DC transmission, installed power capacity, power regulation capability, and new energy output characteristics within the system under study;

[0062] 2) Based on the preliminary typical day simulation analysis, perform typical day simulation calculations to obtain the intraday power supply guarantee results. If the system does not lack power, the power supply guarantee analysis ends; if it does, proceed to the next step of analysis.

[0063] 3) If a power shortage exists, further analysis is needed for seasonal power shortages and continuous multi-day power shortages: For seasonal power shortages, conduct monthly power balance analysis; for continuous multi-day power shortages, conduct daily power balance analysis for 1 to multiple days respectively. If no power shortage exists, conduct another typical day simulation analysis, referring to step 2).

[0064] The method of this invention can quantitatively calculate the peak demand for supply guarantee at different time scales of the system, and has the characteristics of convenient and fast calculation.

[0065] As a further improvement, step 1) includes the following steps:

[0066] 1) First, perform load characteristic analysis.

[0067] By combining historical load characteristics or predicted load characteristics, load data for the planning year of 8760 hours is generated based on the load forecast results.

[0068] Analyze the monthly power distribution characteristics of the load, extract the monthly power distribution coefficient, and conduct a monthly power balance analysis.

[0069] Analyze the load and electricity shift during consecutive extreme weather events, statistically extract the high load coefficient for consecutive days each month, generate extreme high load scenarios for consecutive days, and conduct power supply guarantee analysis for consecutive days each month.

[0070] We selected typical day load curves for extreme weather conditions, including the maximum load day and maximum daily load power of the month for generating power supply control, and conducted typical day power supply analysis. For some provinces with two load peaks in winter and summer, we analyzed the summer and winter situations.

[0071] 2) Secondly, conduct an analysis of the characteristics of new energy sources.

[0072] Based on the historical operating characteristics of new energy sources (excluding curtailment) or the characteristics of resource simulation, generate new energy output data for the planned year of 8760h according to the new energy installed capacity forecast results.

[0073] The monthly distribution characteristics of renewable energy power were analyzed, the monthly distribution coefficient of renewable energy power was statistically extracted, and a monthly power balance analysis was conducted.

[0074] We analyze the shift in renewable energy power generation during consecutive extreme weather events, statistically extract the renewable energy small generation coefficient over multiple consecutive days, generate scenarios of consecutive extreme renewable energy small generation, and conduct monthly analysis of power supply security over multiple consecutive days.

[0075] Select the typical daily power generation curves of new energy corresponding to the 100% guarantee rate and the conventional (such as 95%) guarantee rate, so that the daily power generation can reflect the extreme low power generation scenario and the power balance control period can reflect the guaranteed output, and conduct typical daily power supply guarantee analysis.

[0076] 3) Complete other data collection and organization.

[0077] As a further improvement, step 2) includes the following steps:

[0078] 1) Select a minimum reserve and a new energy reserve.

[0079] The minimum reserve is the minimum reserve under the 100% guarantee rate of new energy. It consists of load reserve, emergency reserve (hot reserve, cold reserve) and maintenance capacity. The value ratio of different types of reserves is reasonably set in combination with the actual operation of the dispatching department and the maintenance plan of major units such as thermal power and hydropower.

[0080] New energy reserve refers to the additional reserve provided that, when the daily power generation of new energy sources participates in the balance according to other guarantee rates, the total system reserve can cover the uncertainty of new energy output and the power balance result remains unchanged.

[0081] 2) Perform typical daily simulation calculations

[0082] Simulations were performed with a daily calculation period and an hour as the minimum time scale. The goal was to minimize the maximum daily power shortage and determine the operating output of various power sources.

[0083] The scenario is selected based on the peak load day of the month for power balance control, coinciding with a small-scale renewable energy generation scenario. Specific values ​​are selected according to the load curve, renewable energy characteristic curve, DC and external power transmission, and conventional thermal power as described in step 1).

[0084] The analysis is conducted using a 100% guarantee rate scenario for new energy sources, and the minimum reserve is calculated as described above. If other guarantee rate scenarios are adopted, new energy reserves are set so that the total system reserve can cover the uncertainty of new energy output and ensure consistent power balance results.

[0085] For power sources with limited energy, priority should be given to hydropower, followed by pumped storage, and finally, new energy storage should be allocated to different locations. The power gap or reduction in thermal power generation caused by the addition of different energy storage sources should be used as the power balancing capacity of the energy storage source.

[0086] As a further improvement, step 3) includes the following steps:

[0087] 1) First, if there is a power shortage, perform monthly power balance calculations to estimate the seasonal power shortage and formulate a seasonal power supply guarantee plan, as follows:

[0088] a) Based on parameters such as annual load characteristics, hydrological characteristics, reserve capacity, thermal power disruption, and guaranteed output of new energy sources, and in conjunction with the annual maintenance area requirements, the thermal power maintenance capacity should be reasonably arranged, and the maximum output and minimum start-up capacity of thermal power should be determined for each month.

[0089] b) When the scale of energy storage power sources is large or the curtailment rate of new energy sources is high, a certain proportion of energy storage losses and curtailment of new energy sources should be considered.

[0090] c) If the system has a monthly power shortage, formulate an economical and reasonable seasonal power supply plan based on the system situation. Common measures include cross-seasonal regulation of large reservoirs, cross-provincial and cross-regional transactions, demand-side response, construction of new thermal power plants and seasonal energy storage, etc.

[0091] d) Based on energy resource endowment, and taking into account the flexibility, economy, environmental protection and feasibility of various measures, priority should be given to seasonal power supply guarantee measures or schemes with high power supply guarantee capacity, good economy and low energy consumption and carbon emission indicators.

[0092] 2) Secondly, after taking measures to ensure seasonal power balance, conduct continuous multi-day power balance calculations, estimate peak-shaving demand over multiple days, and formulate a continuous multi-day power supply guarantee plan based on the magnitude of power shortage due to extreme weather, as follows:

[0093] a) The scenario for ensuring power supply for multiple consecutive days is the scenario of continuous high load encountering continuous extreme weather and small-scale renewable energy generation.

[0094] b) When the scale of energy storage power sources is large or the curtailment rate of new energy sources is high, a certain proportion of energy storage losses and curtailment of new energy sources should be considered.

[0095] c) If the system experiences a continuous power shortage for several days, formulate an economical and reasonable power supply guarantee plan for several consecutive days based on the system situation. Common measures include increasing hydropower generation, inter-provincial and inter-regional transactions, demand-side response, building new thermal power sources (solar thermal + supplementary combustion, gas power, coal power), weekly regulation energy storage, etc., and propose the priority order for the application of continuous upward peak shaving measures.

[0096] d) Based on energy resource endowment, and taking into account the flexibility, economy, environmental protection and feasibility of various measures, priority should be given to continuous multi-day power supply guarantee measures or schemes with high power guarantee capacity, good economy and low energy consumption and carbon emission indicators.

[0097] 3) Perform a typical day simulation analysis again to determine the intraday supply guarantee results, referring to step 2).

[0098] The following is a detailed description of an example of a provincial power grid. It should be emphasized that the following description is merely exemplary and not intended to limit the scope or application of the invention.

[0099] Example

[0100] An analysis is conducted on a province in Northwest China. In the design year, the province's total electricity consumption is 116 billion kWh; the maximum load is approximately 15.86 million kW; the province's power supply scheme is shown in the table below. The power supply situation is analyzed using specific examples.

[0101] Table 1 Power Supply Capacity (Unit: 10,000 kilowatts)

[0102]

[0103]

[0104] The specific steps for this method are as follows:

[0105] (1) Collect data on load, DC transmission, power generation capacity, power regulation capability, and new energy output characteristics within the system under study;

[0106] 1) First, load characteristic analysis was performed. Second, renewable energy characteristic analysis was performed. The resulting characteristics (partial) are as follows:

[0107] Table 2 Load and Renewable Energy Consumption (Unit: 100 million kWh)

[0108] January February March 。。。 October November December total 1. Total load power 97 84 98 103 106 111 1160 2. Renewable electricity 76 77 92 87 76 65 1053 Hydropower 22 20 24 33 23 22 366 Wind power generation 12 15 18 10 17 9 196 Photovoltaic power 37 37 44 39 32 30 432 Photothermal power 5 5 6 5 4 4 60

[0109] like Figure 2 For monthly comparison of daily power consumption; Figure 3 For a monthly comparison of daily power generation from new energy sources; Figure 4 The curves represent typical daily load and daily renewable energy sources.

[0110] 3) Complete other data collection and organization.

[0111] (2) Based on the preliminary typical day simulation analysis, perform typical day simulation calculations to obtain the daily power supply guarantee results. If the system does not lack power, the power supply guarantee analysis ends; if it does, proceed to the next step of analysis.

[0112] In the initial balancing, the load reserve capacity is considered at 2% of the load (all borne by hydropower), and the emergency cold reserve capacity is considered at 1.5% of the thermal power installed capacity; the typical daily power output curves of new energy sources are selected according to the guarantee rates of 100%, 95% and 90% respectively; thermal power considers the shutdown of units and the obstruction of heating during the heating period of cogeneration units.

[0113] Table 3. Power Balance Analysis in 2025 (Internal Use Only, No Measures) Unit: 10,000 kW

[0114]

[0115]

[0116] Figure 5 This is a simulation diagram of typical daily production in 2025 (for internal use only, with 100% guaranteed output from wind and solar power). Figure 6 Analysis of the power shortage in 2025 (domestic use only, with 100% guaranteed output from new energy sources).

[0117] It can be seen that, based on the selection of a typical daily power generation curve for the new energy source of this power grid with a 100% guarantee rate, the daily power shortage in 2025 will reach approximately 160 million kWh, accounting for 43% of the daily maximum load power (370 million kWh). The severe power shortage will result in a power shortage of approximately 7.6 million kW across the province, lasting for more than 20 hours, approaching the base load power shortage state. The power gap accounts for approximately 48% of the maximum load (15.86 million kW).

[0118] (3) If there is a power shortage, further analysis is needed on seasonal power shortages and continuous power shortages: For seasonal power shortages, conduct monthly power balance analysis; for continuous power shortages, conduct daily power balance analysis for 1 to multiple days respectively. If there is no power shortage, conduct a typical day simulation analysis again, referring to step 2).

[0119] By analyzing the power balance at different time scales, the causes of the power shortage in 2025 can be identified, and corresponding solutions can be proposed. This is of great significance for ensuring a reliable power supply.

[0120] First, there is the seasonal power shortage.

[0121] Table 4 shows the monthly power balance for 2025, considering only internal power consumption. In the balance, hydropower is based on the multi-year average power consumption, photovoltaic annual utilization hours are 1600h for existing projects and 1800h for new projects, wind power annual utilization hours are 2000h, and solar thermal annual utilization hours are 3500h.

[0122] It can be seen that, considering only the scale of domestic power consumption in 2025, the problem of seasonal imbalance in power generation is obvious. Affected by the seasonal imbalance in renewable energy output, there is a power shortage in all winter months, with the power shortage in December reaching 2.8 billion kilowatt-hours.

[0123] Figure 7 Monthly hydropower generation distribution for 2025 (internal use only); Figure 8 Monthly electricity distribution of renewable energy sources in 2025 (for internal use only); Figure 9 Monthly electricity supply and demand distribution for 2025 (for internal use only).

[0124] Table 4 Monthly Power Balance of the Power Grid in 2025 (Internal Use Only) Unit: 100 Million kWh

[0125]

[0126] Note: The amount of electricity generated from new energy sources is subject to the curtailment of new energy and energy storage losses.

[0127] Taking into account energy resources, power supply structure characteristics, and grid location advantages, the following five measures are tentatively considered for annual peak shaving:

[0128] Measure 1: Rely on long-term inter-provincial transactions

[0129] Measure 2: Construct a certain capacity of thermal power plants (gas-fired / coal-fired power plants)

[0130] Measure 3: Cross-season regulation by large reservoirs

[0131] Measure 4: Demand-side response

[0132] Measure 5: Hydrogen production and storage

[0133] In summary, considering the flexibility, economy, and feasibility of the proposed scheme, the annual peak-shaving measures would involve the construction of 3 million kilowatts of thermal power plants, with priority given to coal-fired power. In December, the power supply would be approximately 1.7 billion kilowatt-hours (the power shortage in other months would be basically met). At the same time, in December, the power received from the Northwest main grid during off-peak hours would be approximately 1.1 billion kilowatt-hours, with a maximum power input of approximately 3 million kilowatts.

[0134] Secondly, there has been a power outage for several consecutive days.

[0135] During the winter month of December, the power load was high for several consecutive days, and coupled with extreme weather and limited renewable energy generation, there was a power shortage of about 160 million kilowatt-hours per day.

[0136] Table 5. Peak-shaving demand for one consecutive day in December 2025 (internal use only) Unit: 100 million kWh

[0137] Daily electricity consumption Daily average Battery offset 1. Total load power 3.7 3.6 0.1 2. Renewable electricity 1.3 2.2 -0.8 Hydropower 0.7 0.7 0.0 Wind power generation 0.1 0.3 -0.2 Photovoltaic power 0.5 1.0 -0.5 Photothermal power 0.0 0.1 -0.1 3. Thermal power generation 0.7 0.6 0.1 4. Surplus / Loss of Electricity -1.6 -0.9 -0.7

[0138] Note: During the continuous power balance period, the renewable energy generation figure takes into account energy storage losses.

[0139] According to Table 5, the average daily power shortage in December is approximately 0.9 billion kWh. Among the annual peak-shaving measures, the addition of 3 million kW of thermal power will supplement the power supply by approximately 0.54 billion kWh per day on average; and during the 12 hours of off-peak periods, power will be received from the Northwest main grid at a capacity of 3 million kW, with an average daily adjustable power supply of approximately 0.36 billion kWh. The combined effect of these two measures can resolve the average daily power shortage.

[0140] According to the analysis of the volatility of new energy sources, on days with extreme weather, the power shortage increases from 0.9 billion kWh to 1.6 billion kWh in one day due to a sharp decrease in new energy power generation, an increase of 0.7 billion kWh, requiring continuous upward peak adjustment measures for several days.

[0141] Finally, we will conduct another intraday analysis.

[0142] According to the production simulation results, since 3 million kilowatts of thermal power have been added in the annual peak-shaving measures, and considering the energy storage configuration of new energy sources, no new electrochemical energy storage is needed for intraday upward peak shaving. The power grid can be basically balanced on typical days of extreme weather in 2025.

[0143] Figure 10 This is a schematic diagram of a typical daily production simulation in December 2025 (for internal use only).

[0144] Table 6. 2025 Power Balance (Internal Use Only) Unit: 10,000 kilowatts

[0145]

[0146]

[0147] Based on the above analysis, to meet the power supply needs at different time scales, an additional 3 million kilowatts of thermal power capacity is required in 2025. From an operational perspective, seasonal peak shaving in 2025 will require inter-provincial power trading. Continuous peak shaving over multiple days under extreme weather conditions will require a combination of measures, including increased hydropower generation, full thermal power generation, and increased temporary power imports from the Northwest. Intraday peak shaving, under balanced power conditions, will primarily rely on adjusting the operating positions of hydropower plants to fully utilize their idle capacity. See Table 7 for details.

[0148] Table 7 Summary of Power Grid Upward Peak Shaving Schemes in 2025 (Internal Use Only)

[0149]

[0150] like Figure 11 As shown, the present invention also provides a multi-timescale power supply guarantee analysis and determination system, comprising:

[0151] The typical day analysis module is used to collect load parameters within the system under study, perform load characteristic analysis and new energy characteristic analysis based on the load parameters, and obtain preliminary typical day simulation analysis results.

[0152] The power supply analysis module is used to perform typical day simulation calculations based on the preliminary typical day simulation analysis results to obtain the daily power supply results. If the system does not lack power, the power supply analysis ends; if it does, the next step of analysis is performed.

[0153] The scheme formulation module is used to perform monthly power balance calculations and calculate seasonal power shortages if there is a power shortage, and formulate seasonal power supply guarantee schemes. After the seasonal power supply guarantee schemes are implemented to ensure seasonal power balance, the module performs continuous multi-day power balance calculations, calculates continuous multi-day peak-shaving demand, and formulates continuous multi-day power supply guarantee schemes based on the size of power shortages caused by extreme weather. If there is no power shortage, a typical day simulation analysis is performed again.

[0154] like Figure 12 As shown, another objective of this invention is to provide a multi-timescale power supply guarantee analysis device, comprising:

[0155] memory,

[0156] processor,

[0157] The processor is configured to execute the multi-timescale power supply guarantee analysis method.

[0158] The present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium that, when the instructions in the storage medium are executed by a processor, enables the processor to perform a multi-timescale power supply analysis method.

[0159] Those skilled in the art will understand that embodiments of the present invention can be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention can take the form of a completely hardware embodiment, a completely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention can take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0160] This invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each block of the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, special-purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, generate instructions for implementing the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0161] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable storage medium that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium produce an article of manufacture including instruction means, which are implemented in a process Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The function specified in one or more boxes.

[0162] These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing equipment to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable equipment to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions that execute on the computer or other programmable equipment for implementing the process. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps of the function specified in one or more boxes.

[0163] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention and not to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that modifications or equivalent substitutions can still be made to the specific implementation of the present invention. Any modifications or equivalent substitutions that do not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be covered within the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A multi-timescale power supply guarantee analysis method, characterized in that, include: Load parameters within the system under study are collected, and load characteristic analysis and new energy characteristic analysis are performed based on the load parameters to obtain preliminary typical daily simulation analysis results. Based on the preliminary typical day simulation analysis results, typical day simulation calculations are performed to obtain the intraday power supply guarantee results. If the system does not lack power, the power supply guarantee analysis ends. If not, proceed to the next step of analysis; If there is a power shortage, perform monthly power balance calculations to estimate seasonal power shortages and formulate seasonal power supply plans. After implementing seasonal power supply plans to ensure seasonal power balance, perform multi-day power balance calculations to estimate multi-day peak demand and formulate multi-day power supply plans based on the size of power shortages caused by extreme weather. If there is no power shortage, perform a typical day simulation analysis again. The process of performing typical day simulation calculations based on preliminary typical day simulation analysis results to obtain intraday supply guarantee results includes the following steps: Choose between a minimum reserve and a new energy reserve; Using the day as the calculation duration and the hour as the minimum time scale, a typical daily simulation calculation is performed, with the goal of minimizing the maximum daily power shortage, to determine the working output of various power sources; The scenario selection is the peak load day of the month for power balance control, encountering a scenario with small-scale renewable energy generation. The analysis is conducted using a 100% guarantee rate scenario for new energy sources, and the minimum reserve is calculated as described above. If other guarantee rate scenarios are adopted, new energy reserves are set so that the total system reserve can cover the uncertainty of new energy output and ensure consistent power balance results. For power sources with limited energy, hydropower is used first, followed by pumped storage, and finally, new energy storage is arranged to work. The power gap or reduction in the start-up capacity of thermal power plants caused by the addition of different energy storage power sources is used as the power balancing capacity of the energy storage power source. The process involves performing continuous multi-day power balance calculations, estimating peak-shaving demand over multiple days, and formulating a continuous multi-day power supply guarantee plan based on the magnitude of power shortages caused by extreme weather conditions. The details are as follows: a) The scenario for ensuring power supply for multiple consecutive days is the scenario of high load for multiple consecutive days encountering continuous extreme weather and small-scale renewable energy generation. b) When the scale of energy storage power sources is large or the curtailment rate of new energy sources is high, a certain proportion of energy storage losses and new energy curtailment should be considered. c) If the system experiences a continuous power shortage for several days, formulate an economical and reasonable power supply guarantee plan for the continuous days based on the system situation, and propose the priority order for the application of continuous upward peak adjustment measures. d) Based on energy resource endowment, select measures or plans to ensure supply for multiple consecutive days.

2. The multi-timescale power supply guarantee analysis method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The load characteristic analysis includes: Based on historical or predicted load characteristics, generate planned year load data according to load forecast results. Analyze the monthly power distribution characteristics of the load, statistically extract the monthly power distribution coefficient of the load, and conduct monthly power balance analysis; Analyze the load and electricity deviation during consecutive extreme weather events, statistically extract the monthly consecutive day high load coefficient, generate consecutive day extreme high load scenarios, and conduct monthly consecutive day power supply guarantee analysis. We selected typical day load curves for extreme weather conditions, including the maximum load day and maximum daily load power of the month for generating power supply control, and conducted typical day power supply analysis. For some provinces with two load peaks in winter and summer, we analyzed the summer and winter situations.

3. The multi-timescale power supply guarantee analysis method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The analysis of the characteristics of the new energy sources includes: Based on the historical operating characteristics of new energy sources or the characteristics of resource simulation, generate new energy output data for the planning year according to the new energy installed capacity forecast results. The monthly distribution characteristics of renewable energy power were analyzed, the monthly distribution coefficient of renewable energy power was statistically extracted, and a monthly power balance analysis was conducted. Analyze the offset of renewable energy power generation during consecutive extreme weather events, statistically extract the renewable energy small generation coefficient for consecutive days, generate consecutive days of extreme renewable energy small generation scenarios, and conduct monthly consecutive days of power supply guarantee analysis. We selected typical daily power generation curves for new energy sources corresponding to 100% guarantee rate and conventional guarantee rate, so that the daily power generation can reflect extreme low power generation scenarios and the power balance control period can reflect the guaranteed output, and conducted typical daily power supply guarantee analysis.

4. The multi-timescale power supply guarantee analysis method according to claim 1, characterized in that, If a power shortage occurs, a monthly power balance calculation will be performed to estimate the seasonal power shortage and formulate a seasonal power supply guarantee plan, as detailed below: a) Based on the annual load characteristics, hydrological characteristics, reserve capacity, thermal power disruptions, and guaranteed output from new energy sources, and in conjunction with the annual maintenance area requirements, the thermal power maintenance capacity should be reasonably arranged, and the maximum output and minimum start-up capacity of thermal power should be determined for each month. b) When the scale of energy storage power sources is large or the curtailment rate of new energy sources is high, energy storage losses and curtailment of new energy sources should be considered. c) If the system has a monthly power shortage, formulate an economical and reasonable seasonal power supply plan based on the system situation; d) Select seasonal supply guarantee measures or plans based on energy resource endowment.

5. A multi-timescale power supply guarantee analysis system, executing the multi-timescale power supply guarantee analysis method according to any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized in that, include: The typical day analysis module is used to collect load parameters within the system under study, perform load characteristic analysis and new energy characteristic analysis based on the load parameters, and obtain preliminary typical day simulation analysis results. The power supply analysis module is used to perform typical day simulation calculations based on the preliminary typical day simulation analysis results to obtain the daily power supply results. If the system does not lack power, the power supply analysis ends; if it does, the next step of analysis is performed. The scheme formulation module is used to perform monthly power balance calculations and calculate seasonal power shortages if there is a power shortage, and formulate seasonal power supply guarantee schemes. After the seasonal power supply guarantee schemes are implemented to ensure seasonal power balance, the module performs continuous multi-day power balance calculations, calculates continuous multi-day peak-shaving demand, and formulates continuous multi-day power supply guarantee schemes based on the size of power shortages caused by extreme weather. If there is no power shortage, a typical day simulation analysis is performed again.

6. A multi-timescale power supply guarantee analysis device, characterized in that, include: memory, processor, The processor is configured to execute the multi-timescale power supply guarantee analysis method according to any one of claims 1 to 4.

7. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, When the instructions in the storage medium are executed by the processor, the processor is able to perform the multi-timescale power supply analysis method according to any one of claims 1 to 4.

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