Park carbon emission accounting method considering comprehensive energy system and uncertain factors

Abstract

The invention discloses a park carbon emission accounting method considering an integrated energy system and uncertain factors, and the method comprises the steps: 1, determining a park carbon emission accounting boundary, and determining a main carbon emission source in a park; 2, based on an energy flow theory and a carbon flow analysis method, establishing a multi-layer comprehensive model of park carbon emission accounting considering the comprehensive energy system, wherein the multi-layer comprehensive model comprises park energy supply carbon emission, park energy consumption carbon emission and park non-energy carbon emission; 3, uncertain factors including energy carbon emission factor uncertainty, electric power carbon emission factor uncertainty and corrected carbon emission factors of the park carbon emission accounting are considered, and the accuracy of the park carbon emission accounting is improved. According to the park carbon emission accounting method, carbon emission source classification is carried out from the angle of energy flow, uncertain factors in the carbon emission accounting process are researched, and the carbon emission accounting accuracy is improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of carbon emission accounting, and in particular relates to a park carbon emission accounting method taking into account comprehensive energy systems and uncertain factors. Background Art

[0002] At present, although there is no standardized system for carbon emission accounting in industrial parks, some scholars have conducted carbon emission accounting in industrial parks. For example, CN117635198A established a carbon emission accounting method for industrial parks based on the emission factor method, and a comprehensive carbon emission accounting method system taking into account the characteristics of carbon sources and carbon sinks; CN115660918A proposed a carbon emission calculation and prediction method for industrial parks, considering energy consumption, industrial processes, waste treatment and other links, and established a carbon accounting model for industrial parks that takes into account carbon emission reduction; CN116244941A defined the scope of carbon emission sources in industrial parks, constructed a carbon emission accounting method for industrial parks, constructed a DSGE structure and set up scenarios. However, current research has failed to take into account the carbon emissions of the self-generated integrated energy system within the industrial park, and has not analyzed the uncertainty of carbon emissions in industrial parks. Therefore, establishing a carbon emission accounting model for industrial parks that takes into account the integrated energy system and analyzing carbon emission uncertainty will help improve the accuracy of carbon emission accounting in industrial parks. Summary of the invention

[0003] Purpose of the invention: To fill the gap in the current park carbon emission accounting method that takes into account the integrated energy system, the present invention provides a park carbon emission accounting method that classifies carbon emission sources from the perspective of energy flow, and studies the uncertain factors in the carbon emission accounting process to improve the accuracy of carbon emission accounting.

[0004] Technical solution: A method for calculating carbon emissions in a park taking into account comprehensive energy systems and uncertain factors of the present invention comprises the following steps:

[0005] Step 1: Determine the carbon emission accounting boundary of the park and identify the main carbon emission sources in the park;

[0006] Step 2: Based on energy flow theory and carbon flow analysis, a multi-layer comprehensive model for park carbon emission accounting taking into account the comprehensive energy system is established, including the park energy supply carbon emissions, park energy consumption carbon emissions and park non-energy carbon emissions;

[0007] Step 3: Consider the uncertainties in the park’s carbon emission accounting, including the uncertainty of energy carbon emission factors and electricity carbon emission factors, and correct the carbon emission factors to improve the accuracy of the park’s carbon emission accounting.

[0008] Furthermore, in step 1, the carbon emission accounting boundary of the park includes the geographical boundary of the park, the data statistical boundary and the emission source boundary; the main carbon emission sources in the park include energy consumption, industrial processes, construction, transportation carbon emissions, waste treatment, and carbon emissions generated by electric energy supply within the park, as well as carbon sink and carbon emission reduction.

[0009] Furthermore, step 2 is specifically as follows: based on the energy flow theory, the energy transmission and conversion process inside and outside the park is analyzed to determine the energy consumption and corresponding carbon emissions of each link; through the carbon flow analysis method, the flow path of carbon inside and outside the park is tracked to identify the contribution of each carbon emission source to the total carbon emissions; the carbon emission source boundaries in the multi-layer comprehensive model of the park's carbon emission accounting include: energy supply carbon emission source boundaries, energy consumption carbon emission source boundaries and non-energy carbon emission source boundaries;

[0010] The energy supply carbon emission source boundary takes into account the carbon emissions of the energy supply ends inside and outside the park, including the carbon emission accounting boundary of the electricity supplied by the upper power grid and the related power generation units of the integrated energy system in the park, covering the overall energy supply of the park;

[0011] The energy-consuming carbon emission source boundary takes into account the carbon emissions of various energy consumption activities in the park, including the carbon emission accounting boundary of the industrial sector, the carbon emission accounting boundary of the transportation sector, and the carbon emission accounting boundary of the construction sector;

[0012] The non-energy carbon emission source boundary takes into account the carbon emissions of non-energy participating processes within the park, including the waste treatment carbon emission accounting boundary and the carbon sink carbon emission reduction accounting boundary of green vegetation within the park;

[0013] The calculation formula of the multi-layer comprehensive model for the park’s carbon emissions accounting is as follows:

[0014] E p =E p,1 +E p,2 +E p,3

[0015] In the formula, E p is the total carbon emissions in the park, E p,1 Carbon emissions from energy supply to the park, E p,2 is the carbon emissions from energy consumption in the park, E p,3 It is the non-energy carbon emissions of the park.

[0016] Furthermore, the carbon emissions from the energy supply of the park are calculated as follows:

[0017]

[0018] In the formula, E p,1 Carbon emissions from energy supply to the park; E gas 、E wind 、Eph 、E e EF are the carbon emissions generated by natural gas, wind power, photovoltaic power and power purchase from the upper power grid in the park's comprehensive energy system; gas EF wind EF ph EF e are the carbon emission factors of natural gas, wind power, photovoltaic power and power purchase from the upper power grid in the park's comprehensive energy system in the whole life cycle. The carbon emission factors of each power generation mode in the whole life cycle are taken as the average value of the existing research literature results; P gas , P wind , P ph , P e It provides electricity and heat energy for the park's comprehensive energy system, including natural gas, wind power, photovoltaic power and the upper-level power grid.

[0019] Furthermore, the carbon emissions from energy consumption in the park are calculated as follows:

[0020] E p,2 =E indu +E tran +E bu

[0021] Among them, E p,2 E is the carbon emission of energy consumption in the park; indu 、E tran 、E bu They are the embodied carbon emissions from industry, transportation and buildings on the energy consumption side of the park;

[0022] The carbon emission accounting method for the industrial sector on the energy consumption side is as follows:

[0023]

[0024] In the formula, E indu , E indu1 , E indu2 are industrial carbon emissions, industrial energy consumption carbon emissions and process carbon emissions; C i,j The j-th energy consumption used by the i-th industry; EF j is the carbon emission factor of the jth energy source; GDP indu A is the industrial economic output value of the park; indu is the carbon emission per unit of industrial output;

[0025] The calculation method of carbon emissions from the transportation sector on the energy consumption side is as follows:

[0026] E tran =∑[VP i ·VMT i ·FE j ·EF j ]

[0027] In the formula, E tran CO2 emissions generated by the park's transportation sector, tons; VP i is the number of motor vehicles of category i, vehicles; VMT i is the average annual mileage of Class I vehicles, kilometers per vehicle; FE j is the fuel economy of vehicle type j, liters / kilometer; EF j is the carbon emission factor of type j fuel, in terms of CO2, in tons / liter;

[0028] The carbon emission accounting method for the building sector on the energy consumption side is as follows:

[0029] E bu =EF bu ×M bu

[0030] In the formula, E bu is the carbon emissions of buildings on the energy-consuming side of the park, EF bu The embodied carbon emissions per unit building area are set at 0.8372tCO2 / m 3 , M bu It is the building area in the park.

[0031] Furthermore, the non-energy carbon emissions of the park are calculated as follows:

[0032] E p,3 =E waste +E plant

[0033] In the formula, E p,3 is the non-energy carbon emissions of the park, E waste Carbon emissions for waste treatment, E plant Reduce carbon emissions from green vegetation in the park;

[0034] The calculation method of carbon emissions from waste treatment is as follows:

[0035] E waste =∑ i M i was ×EF i was

[0036] In the formula, E waste is the carbon emission from waste treatment, in tons; i is the type of waste; M i was is the waste treatment amount, tons; EF i was is the carbon emission factor, tCO2 / ton;

[0037] The calculation method of carbon sink emission reduction of green vegetation in the park is as follows:

[0038]

[0039] In the formula, E plant Carbon sink emission reduction of green vegetation in the park; C plant i is the area of ​​the i-th type of green plants in the park, which are woodland and grassland respectively; F plant i is the carbon sink factor of the i-th type of green plants, and the forest land is 3.8096t / hm 2 , grassland is 0.9482t / hm 2 .

[0040] Furthermore, step 3 is specifically as follows: the power generation includes the power generation of the integrated energy system and the power generation within the park, and the direct carbon emissions are calculated based on the carbon emission coefficients of various energy sources;

[0041] C grid,i =∑(EF m ×D m,i )

[0042] In the formula, C grid,i is the direct carbon emissions of region i, F m is the carbon emission factor of the mth type of power generation, D m,i is the power generation of the mth type of power generation in region i;

[0043] The net power flow relationship includes the amount of electricity transmitted and imported from the park area to other regional power grids. The power flow between regions has an important impact on the calculation of carbon emission factors. The calculation method of regional total carbon emissions is as follows:

[0044] C total,i =C grid,i +∑(EF k ×E imp,k,i )

[0045] In the formula, C total,i is the total carbon emissions of region i, C grid,i is the direct carbon emissions of region i, E imp,k,i is the net import of electricity from region k by grid i, EF k is the carbon emission factor of electricity generation in region k;

[0046] The total regional power generation is the sum of power generation and net power input, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0047] E total,i =E grid,i +∑E imp,k,i

[0048] ∑E imp,k,i =E off-grid -E on-grid

[0049] In the formula, E total,i is the total power consumption of area i, E grid,i is the total power generation in region i, E imp,k,i is the net power input from grid i to region k, E off-grid is the off-grid power consumption in area i, E on-grid is the amount of electricity online in area i;

[0050] The calculation formula of regional corrected carbon emission factor is as follows:

[0051]

[0052] Where, EF grid,i is the corrected electricity carbon emission factor for region i, C total,i is the total carbon emissions of region i, E total,i is the total power consumption in area i.

[0053] The present invention also discloses a computer device, comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory, wherein the processor executes the computer program to implement the steps of the method of the present invention.

[0054] The present invention also discloses a computer-readable storage medium on which a computer program / instruction is stored. When the computer program / instruction is executed by a processor, the steps of the method of the present invention are implemented.

[0055] The present invention also discloses a computer program product, comprising a computer program / instruction, which implements the steps of the method of the present invention when executed by a processor.

[0056] Beneficial effects: Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following significant advantages:

[0057] Based on energy flow theory and carbon flow analysis, the present invention divides the park's carbon emission sources into three categories: energy supply, energy consumption, and non-energy activities, comprehensively covering the park's main carbon emission sources. Taking into account the carbon emissions of the park's internal self-generated comprehensive energy system, a multi-layer comprehensive model including energy supply, energy consumption, and non-energy activities was established, which made up for the shortcomings of the existing technology and significantly improved the accuracy of carbon emission accounting. In addition, the present invention focuses on the uncertainties that may exist in the accounting process. By introducing the actual measurement method and the latest regional carbon emission factor correction method, the accounting errors caused by inconsistent data sources and outdated emission factors are reduced. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0058] Figure 1This is the energy flow diagram of the park of the present invention;

[0059] Figure 2 This is a diagram of the method for calculating regional carbon emission factors of the present invention;

[0060] Figure 3 It is a flow chart of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0061] The technical solution of the present invention is further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0062] Reference Figure 1-Figure 3 , a park carbon emission accounting method taking into account the comprehensive energy system and uncertain factors, including the following steps:

[0063] Step 1: Determine the carbon emission accounting boundary of the park and identify the main carbon emission sources in the park;

[0064] Step 2: Based on energy flow theory and carbon flow analysis, a multi-layer comprehensive model for carbon emission accounting of the park taking into account the comprehensive energy system is established, including carbon emissions from energy supply, carbon emissions from energy consumption, and non-energy carbon emissions;

[0065] Step 3: Consider the uncertainties in the park’s carbon emissions accounting to improve the accuracy of the park’s carbon emissions accounting.

[0066] Preferably, the park's carbon emission accounting boundaries include the park's geographical boundaries, data statistical boundaries and emission source boundaries. The emission sources include energy consumption, industrial processes, construction, transportation carbon emissions, waste treatment, carbon emissions generated by electric energy supply within the park, and carbon sink carbon emission reductions.

[0067] Preferably, the energy transmission and conversion process inside and outside the park is analyzed based on the energy flow theory to determine the energy consumption and corresponding carbon emissions of each link. Through the carbon flow analysis method, the flow path of carbon inside and outside the park is tracked to identify the contribution of each carbon emission source to the total carbon emissions. The carbon flow diagram of the park taking into account the comprehensive energy system is shown in the appendix of the manual. Figure 1 , the carbon emission source boundaries in a park carbon emission accounting model taking into account comprehensive energy include:

[0068] (1) The carbon emission source boundary of energy supply takes into account the carbon emissions of energy supply sources inside and outside the park, including the carbon emission accounting boundary of electricity supplied by the upper power grid and related generators of the integrated energy system in the park, covering the overall energy supply of the park;

[0069] (2) Energy-consuming carbon emission source boundaries, taking into account the carbon emissions of various energy consumption activities within the park, including the carbon emission accounting boundaries of the industrial sector, the transportation sector, and the construction sector;

[0070] (3) Non-energy carbon emission source boundary, which takes into account the carbon emissions from non-energy processes within the park, including the carbon emission accounting boundary of waste treatment (incineration, landfill, etc.) and the carbon sink and carbon emission reduction accounting boundary of green vegetation within the park.

[0071] Table 1 Park carbon emission accounting boundaries

[0072]

[0073]

[0074] Preferably, the park carbon emission accounting model includes the following method for calculating the carbon emissions within the park:

[0075] E p =E p,1 +E p,2 +E p,3

[0076] In the formula, E p is the total carbon emissions in the park, E p,1 Carbon emissions from energy supply to the park, E p,2 is the carbon emission of energy consumption in the park, E p,3 It refers to the carbon emissions generated by non-energy activities in the park.

[0077] 1) Carbon emission accounting method for park energy supply:

[0078]

[0079] In the formula, E p,1 Carbon emissions from energy supply to the park; E gas 、E wind 、E ph 、E e EF are the carbon emissions generated by natural gas, wind power, photovoltaic power and power purchase from the upper power grid in the park's comprehensive energy system; gas EF wind EF ph EF e are the carbon emission factors of natural gas, wind power, photovoltaic power and power purchase from the upper power grid in the park's comprehensive energy system considering the whole life cycle. The carbon emission factors of each power generation mode in the whole life cycle are the average values ​​of the existing research literature results, see Table 1; P gas , P wind , P ph , P e It provides electricity and heat energy for the park's comprehensive energy system, including natural gas, wind power, photovoltaic power and the upper-level power grid.

[0080] Table 2 Carbon emission factors of each power generation mode over the entire life cycle

[0081]

[0082]

[0083] 2) Carbon emissions from the energy consumption side of the park are calculated as follows:

[0084] E p,2 =E indu +E tran +E bu

[0085] Among them, E p,2 E is the carbon emissions from energy consumption in the park; indu 、E tran 、E bu They are the embodied carbon emissions from industry, transportation and buildings on the energy-consuming side of the park.

[0086] 1. The carbon emission accounting method for the industrial sector on the energy consumption side is as follows:

[0087]

[0088] In the formula, E indu , E indu1 , E indu2 are industrial carbon emissions, industrial energy consumption carbon emissions and process carbon emissions; C i,j The j-th energy consumption used by the i-th industry; EF j is the carbon emission factor of the jth energy source; GDP indu A is the industrial economic output value of the park; indu It is the carbon emission per unit of industrial output value.

[0089] 2. The calculation method of carbon emissions from the transportation sector on the energy consumption side is as follows:

[0090] E tran =∑[VP i ·VMT i ·FE j ·EF j ]

[0091] In the formula, E tran CO2 emissions generated by the park's transportation sector, tons; VP i is the number of motor vehicles of category i, vehicles; VMT i is the average annual mileage of Class I vehicles, kilometers per vehicle; FE j is the fuel economy of vehicle type j, liters / kilometer; EF j is the carbon emission factor of type j fuel (in terms of CO2), tonnes / litre.

[0092] 3. The carbon emission accounting method for the building sector on the energy consumption side is as follows:

[0093] The entire life cycle of a building is divided into two parts: embodied carbon emissions and operational carbon emissions. Among them, embodied carbon includes three stages: production and construction, repair and decoration, demolition and recycling, while operational carbon emissions include heating, cooling and power supply during the operation of the building. In order to avoid double accounting, this part is calculated on the energy supply side.

[0094] E bu =EF bu ×M bu

[0095] In the formula, E bu is the carbon emissions of buildings on the energy-consuming side of the park, EF bu is the embodied carbon emission per unit building area. Based on relevant research, this topic sets the annual average embodied carbon emission per unit building area to be 0.8372tCO2 / m3. bu It is the building area in the park.

[0096] 3) Carbon emissions from non-energy activities in the park are calculated as follows:

[0097] E p,3 =E waste +E plant

[0098] In the formula, E p,3 is the carbon emissions from non-energy activities in the park, E waste Carbon emissions for waste treatment, E plant Reduce carbon emissions from green vegetation in the park.

[0099] The carbon emission accounting method for the waste treatment sector of non-energy activities is as follows:

[0100] E waste =∑ i M i was ×EF i was

[0101] In the formula, E waste is the emission caused by waste treatment, in tons; i is the type of waste; M i was is the waste treatment amount, tons; EF i was is the carbon emission factor, tCO2 / ton.

[0102] The carbon emission accounting method for carbon sink reduction in non-energy activities is as follows:

[0103]

[0104] In the formula, E plantC is the carbon emission reduction of green plants in the park; plant i is the area of ​​the i-th type of green plants in the park, which are woodland and grassland respectively; F plant i is the carbon sink factor of type i green plants, the forest land is 3.8096 t / hm2, and the grassland is 0.9482 t / hm2.

[0105] Preferably, the uncertainties in the park carbon emission accounting mainly include the uncertainty of accounting data and the uncertainty of emission factors:

[0106] Uncertainty in accounting data: data sources and representativeness, limitations in emission source accounting, and missing data statistics;

[0107] Data Source and Representativeness

[0108] Industrial parks are processed using a variety of statistical methods, resulting in insufficient representativeness and possible errors with actual energy consumption.

[0109] Limitations of emission source accounting

[0110] In the past, carbon emission accounting in industrial parks had a narrow coverage of carbon emission sources. Most industrial park carbon accounting methods only covered fossil energy combustion and carbon emissions from purchased electricity in the industrial park. There was less discussion on the current power generation facilities within the industrial park, as the transportation sector, construction sector and waste treatment processes were gradually included as the functionality of the industrial park was strengthened. Moreover, carbon emissions over the entire life cycle were not considered, which to a certain extent led to uncertainty in the accounting results.

[0111] Missing data statistics

[0112] When collecting data, the scope of the statistics is highly uncertain. Different departments use different accounting boundaries and statistical calibers when conducting data statistics. In addition, with the optimization of urban functional layout and the agglomeration of industrial clusters, many new enterprises have settled in the industrial parks, thus facing the problem of missing data.

[0113] The emission factor is the basis for the park's carbon emissions accounting, but it is still affected by the difference between the default value and the actual value, and the timeliness of the grid power supply emission factor.

[0114] Difference between default value and actual value

[0115] Currently, many studies use the default values ​​provided by the IPCC for carbon emission accounting of coal and other fuels. However, the default values ​​provided by the IPCC are 30% higher than the measured local energy carbon emission factors. Using the default values ​​will increase the amount of carbon accounting in the park and cannot reflect the regional differences in energy carbon emission factor production methods and fuel quality.

[0116] Timeliness of grid power supply emission factors

[0117] At present, the carbon emissions of purchased electricity in the industrial park are mostly calculated based on the average carbon emission factor of the regional power grid. However, the average carbon emission factor of the regional power grid has not been updated since 2012. Since 2012, electricity production and energy structure have changed significantly. Continuing to use outdated data will lead to serious deviations in carbon emission accounting results.

[0118] The finalized carbon emission accounting method for the park, which takes into account the comprehensive energy system and uncertain factors, is:

[0119] For Scope 1 (Energy Supply):

[0120] (1) Superior power grid: Based on the above analysis, the park uses the power settlement certificate provided by the power supply department as the basis, and calculates the power emission factor of the area where the park is located based on the power generation, cross-regional power exchange volume, etc., using the regional carbon emission factor calculation method published by the National Development and Reform Commission.

[0121] (2) Integrated energy system within the park: The full life cycle approach is used to calculate the carbon emissions of each power generation facility within the park over its entire life cycle.

[0122] For Scope 2 (Energy Consumption):

[0123] (1) Carbon emissions from industrial processes

[0124] The fossil energy consumed by the industrial park is calculated using the local carbon emission factor measured by the actual measurement method. The carbon emissions during the industrial production process are calculated using an empirical formula based on the industrial economic output value of the industrial park and the carbon emissions per unit of output value.

[0125] (2) Carbon emissions from transportation

[0126] The transportation sector includes road transportation, water transportation and air transportation. In view of the actual situation of the park, this plan only considers road transportation carbon emissions and specifically divides motor vehicle types into three categories: private cars, buses and trucks.

[0127] (3) Building carbon emissions

[0128] The entire life cycle of a building is divided into two parts: embodied carbon emissions and operational carbon emissions. Among them, embodied carbon includes three stages: production and construction, repair and decoration, demolition and recycling, while the carbon emissions of electricity generated in the operational stage have been accounted for in scope 1.

[0129] For Scope 3 (non-energy activities): mainly consider waste treatment and carbon sink carbon emission reduction in the park.

[0130] Preferably, the method for correcting the regional electricity carbon emission factor includes:

[0131] The power generation and direct carbon emissions in the region are the basis for calculating the regional carbon emission factor. The power generation includes the power generation of the integrated energy system and the power generation within the park, and the direct carbon emissions are calculated based on the carbon emission coefficients of various energy sources.

[0132] C grid,i =∑(EF m ×D m,i )

[0133] In the formula, C grid,i is the direct carbon emissions of region i, F m is the carbon emission factor of the mth type of power generation. The specific carbon emission factor has been given in Chapter 2. m,i is the power generation of the mth type of power generation in region i.

[0134] The net power flow relationship includes the amount of electricity transmitted and imported from the park area to other regional power grids. The power flow between regions has an important impact on the calculation of carbon emission factors. The calculation method of regional total carbon emissions is as follows:

[0135] C total,i =C grid,i +∑(EF k ×E imp,k,i )

[0136] In the formula, C total,i is the total carbon emissions of region i, C grid,i is the direct carbon emissions of region i, E imp,k,i is the net import of electricity from region k by grid i, EF k is the carbon emission factor for electricity generation in region k.

[0137] The total regional power generation is the sum of power generation and net power input, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0138] E total,i =E grid,i +∑E imp,k,i

[0139] ∑E imp,k,i =E off-grid -E on-grid

[0140] In the formula, E total,i is the total power consumption of area i, E grid,i is the total power generation in region i, E imp,k,i is the net power input from grid i to region k, E off-grid is the off-grid power consumption in area i, E on-grid is the amount of electricity consumed by the Internet in area i.

[0141] The calculation formula of regional corrected carbon emission factor is as follows:

[0142]

[0143] Where, EF grid,i is the corrected electricity carbon emission factor for region i, C total,i is the total carbon emissions of region i,

[0144] E total,i is the total power consumption in area i.

[0145] Example

[0146] In order to make the features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and easy to understand, a new industrial park in Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province is taken as an example to implement the present invention. The park vigorously develops emerging industries such as wind power, photovoltaics and smart grids, integrates industrial, commercial and residential functions, enjoys superior geographical and climatic conditions, and is greatly conducive to the application and development of wind power and photovoltaic technologies.

[0147] According to the park carbon emission accounting model established by the present invention, the greenhouse gas emission table of the park in 2022 is finally obtained, as shown in the following table.

[0148] Table 3 Carbon emissions of the park in 2022

[0149]

[0150] After analysis, by considering the uncertainties of the park's energy carbon emission factors and the electricity carbon emission factors, a more accurate park carbon emission accounting method that takes into account the comprehensive energy system is proposed. In scope 1, through the analysis of uncertainties, the present invention takes into account the carbon emissions of the park's power generation facilities throughout their life cycle, and uses the low calorific value, carbon content per unit calorific value, and carbon oxidation rate measured by the actual measurement method to replace the default carbon emission factors published by the IPCC. In scope 1, the carbon emission factor of electricity purchased by the upper-level power grid of the industrial park of the present invention is calculated using the regional carbon emission factor calculation method. The electricity carbon emission factor of the area where the park is located is calculated based on the power generation, electricity consumption, and other regional interaction data of the area where the park is located. The currently used regional power grid average carbon emission factor has not been updated since 2012. The present invention selects area 4 and 5 adjacent areas where the park is located to correct the electricity carbon emission factor in the area where it is located. The specific calculation process is as follows Figure 2 shown.

[0151] According to Table 4 and Table 5, the corrected carbon emission factors of each region are finally obtained, and the results are shown in Table 6. The regional carbon emission factor of region 4 where the park is located is 0.313t / MWh.

[0152] Table 4 Power generation in each region (unit: 10 5 MWh)

[0153]

[0154]

[0155] Table 5 Online and offline electricity in each region (unit: 10 5 MWh)

[0156]

[0157] Table 6 Corrected carbon emission factors for each region

[0158]

Claims

1. A method for calculating carbon emissions in a park taking into account comprehensive energy systems and uncertain factors, characterized in that: The steps include: Step 1: Determine the carbon emission accounting boundary of the park and identify the main carbon emission sources in the park; Step 2: Based on energy flow theory and carbon flow analysis, a multi-layer comprehensive model for park carbon emission accounting taking into account the comprehensive energy system is established, including the park energy supply carbon emissions, park energy consumption carbon emissions and park non-energy carbon emissions; Step 3: Consider the uncertainties in the park’s carbon emission accounting, including the uncertainty of energy carbon emission factors and electricity carbon emission factors, and correct the carbon emission factors to improve the accuracy of the park’s carbon emission accounting.

2. A method for calculating carbon emissions in a park taking into account comprehensive energy systems and uncertain factors according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step 1, the carbon emission accounting boundary of the park includes the geographical boundary of the park, the data statistical boundary and the emission source boundary; the main carbon emission sources in the park include energy consumption, industrial processes, construction, transportation carbon emissions, waste treatment, carbon emissions generated by electric energy supply and carbon sink carbon emission reduction.

3. A method for calculating carbon emissions in a park taking into account comprehensive energy systems and uncertain factors according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step 2 is specifically as follows: based on the energy flow theory, the energy transmission and conversion process inside and outside the park is analyzed to determine the energy consumption and corresponding carbon emissions of each link; through the carbon flow analysis method, the flow path of carbon inside and outside the park is tracked to identify the contribution of each carbon emission source to the total carbon emissions; the carbon emission source boundaries in the multi-layer comprehensive model of the park's carbon emission accounting include: energy supply carbon emission source boundaries, energy consumption carbon emission source boundaries, and non-energy carbon emission source boundaries; The energy supply carbon emission source boundary takes into account the carbon emissions of the energy supply ends inside and outside the park, including the carbon emission accounting boundary of the electricity supplied by the upper power grid and the related power generation units of the integrated energy system in the park, covering the overall energy supply of the park; The energy-consuming carbon emission source boundary takes into account the carbon emissions of various energy consumption activities in the park, including the carbon emission accounting boundary of the industrial sector, the carbon emission accounting boundary of the transportation sector, and the carbon emission accounting boundary of the construction sector; The non-energy carbon emission source boundary takes into account the carbon emissions of non-energy participating processes within the park, including the waste treatment carbon emission accounting boundary and the carbon sink carbon emission reduction accounting boundary of green vegetation within the park; The calculation formula of the multi-layer comprehensive model for the park’s carbon emissions accounting is as follows: AND p =And p,1 +E p,2 +E p,3 In the formula, E p is the total carbon emissions in the park, E p,1 Carbon emissions from energy supply to the park, E p,2 is the carbon emissions from energy consumption in the park, E p,3 It is the non-energy carbon emissions of the park.

4. A method for calculating carbon emissions in a park taking into account comprehensive energy systems and uncertain factors according to claim 3, characterized in that: The carbon emissions from the park's energy supply are calculated as follows: In the formula, E p,1 Carbon emissions from energy supply to the park; E gas 、E wind 、E ph 、E e EF are the carbon emissions generated by natural gas, wind power, photovoltaic power and power purchase from the upper power grid in the park's comprehensive energy system; gas EF wind EF ph EF e are the carbon emission factors of natural gas, wind power, photovoltaic power and power purchase from the upper power grid in the park's comprehensive energy system in the whole life cycle. The carbon emission factors of each power generation mode in the whole life cycle are taken as the average value of the existing research literature results; P gas , P wind , P ph , P e It provides electricity and heat energy for the park's comprehensive energy system, including natural gas, wind power, photovoltaic power and the upper-level power grid.

5. A method for calculating carbon emissions in a park taking into account comprehensive energy systems and uncertain factors according to claim 3, characterized in that: The carbon emissions from the park's energy consumption are calculated as follows: AND p,2 =And indu +E tran +E bu Among them, E p,2 E is the carbon emission of energy consumption in the park; indu 、E tran 、E bu They are the embodied carbon emissions from industry, transportation and buildings on the energy consumption side of the park; The carbon emission accounting method for the industrial sector on the energy consumption side is as follows: In the formula, E indu , E indu1 , E indu2 are industrial carbon emissions, industrial energy consumption carbon emissions and process carbon emissions; C i,j The j-th energy consumption used by the i-th industry; EF j is the carbon emission factor of the jth energy source; GDP indu A is the industrial economic output value of the park; indu is the carbon emission per unit of industrial output; The calculation method of carbon emissions from the transportation sector on the energy consumption side is as follows: E tran =∑[VP i ·VMT i ·FE j ·EF j ] In the formula, E tran CO2 emissions generated by the park's transportation sector, tons; VP i is the number of motor vehicles of category i, vehicles; VMT i is the average annual mileage of Class I vehicles, kilometers per vehicle; FE j is the fuel economy of vehicle type j, liters / kilometer; EF j is the carbon emission factor of type j fuel, in terms of CO2, in tons / liter; The carbon emission accounting method for the building sector on the energy consumption side is as follows: E bu =EF bu ×M bu In the formula, E bu is the carbon emissions of buildings on the energy-consuming side of the park, EF bu The embodied carbon emissions per unit building area are set at 0.8372tCO2 / m 3 , M bu It is the building area in the park.

6. A method for calculating carbon emissions in a park taking into account comprehensive energy systems and uncertain factors according to claim 3, characterized in that: The non-energy carbon emissions of the park are calculated as follows: AND p,3 =And waste +E plant In the formula, E p,3 is the non-energy carbon emissions of the park, E waste Carbon emissions for waste treatment, E plant Reduce carbon emissions from green vegetation in the park; The calculation method of carbon emissions from waste treatment is as follows: In the formula, E waste is the carbon emission from waste treatment, in tons; i is the type of waste; M i was is the amount of waste treated, tons; is the carbon emission factor, tCO2 / ton; The calculation method of carbon sink emission reduction of green vegetation in the park is as follows: In the formula, E plant Carbon sink emission reduction of green vegetation in the park; C plant i is the area of ​​the i-th type of green plants in the park, which are woodland and grassland respectively; F plant i is the carbon sink factor of the i-th type of green plants, and the forest land is 3.8096t / hm 2 , grassland is 0.9482t / hm 2 .

7. A method for calculating carbon emissions in a park taking into account comprehensive energy systems and uncertain factors according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step 3 is as follows: the power generation includes the power generation of the integrated energy system and the power generation within the park, and the direct carbon emissions are calculated based on the carbon emission coefficients of various energy sources; C grid,i =∑(EF m ×D m,i ) In the formula, C grid,i is the direct carbon emissions of region i, F m is the carbon emission factor of the mth type of power generation, D m,i is the power generation of the mth type of power generation in region i; The net power flow relationship includes the amount of electricity transmitted and imported from the park area to other regional power grids. The power flow between regions has an important impact on the calculation of carbon emission factors. The calculation method of regional total carbon emissions is as follows: C total,i =C grid,i +∑(EF k ×E imp,k,i ) In the formula, C total,i is the total carbon emissions of region i, C grid,i is the direct carbon emissions of region i, E imp,k,i is the net import of electricity from region k by grid i, EF k is the carbon emission factor of electricity generation in region k; The total regional power generation is the sum of power generation and net power input, and the calculation formula is as follows: AND total,i =And grid,i +∑E imp,k,i ∑E imp,k,i =And off-grid -AND on-grid In the formula, E total,i is the total power consumption of area i, E grid,i is the total power generation in region i, E imp,k,i is the net power input from grid i to region k, E off-grid is the off-grid power consumption in area i, E on-grid is the amount of electricity online in area i; The calculation formula of regional corrected carbon emission factor is as follows: Where, EF grid,i is the corrected electricity carbon emission factor for region i, C total,i is the total carbon emissions of region i, E total,i is the total power consumption in area i.

8. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory, characterized in that: The processor executes the computer program to implement the steps of the method of claim 1.

9. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program / instruction stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program / instructions are executed by a processor, the steps of the method according to claim 1 are implemented.

10. A computer program product comprising a computer program / instructions, characterized in that When the computer program / instructions are executed by a processor, the steps of the method according to claim 1 are implemented.

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