Regional water resource optimal configuration method and system

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of water resource management, in particular to a regional water resource optimal configuration method and system.The method comprises the following steps that a domestic water prediction model and an ecological water prediction model are constructed based on LSTM and used for predicting domestic water and ecological water of a target region respectively, meanwhile, the production water of the target area is estimated through a quota method; predicting the available water supply amount of the target area, and obtaining a future supply and demand analysis result of the water resource of the target area in combination with the prediction results of the domestic water, the ecological water and the production water; when the water demand of the target area is difficult to meet, obtaining the water shortage rate and the economic benefit of the water resource optimal configuration plan based on a WEAP model; and establishing a water resource optimal configuration model, and further comprehensively considering the water shortage rate and the economic benefit to obtain an optimal water resource optimal configuration plan. According to the water resource optimal configuration method, the coordinated development of economic, social and ecological environments can be realized while the water use safety is guaranteed.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of water resources management, and in particular to a regional water resources optimal allocation method and system. BACKGROUND

[0002] Up to now, under the joint promotion of numerous scholars at home and abroad, the research on water resources optimal allocation has made significant progress, but there are still many deficiencies. The existing technology often focuses on single-dimensional water resources management, such as only focusing on economic water use efficiency or only considering ecological environment protection, and lacks comprehensive understanding of the complex relationship among water resources system, economic and social development and ecological system health. In addition, the existing method often lacks flexibility when dealing with complex and variable water resources supply and demand scenarios, and it is difficult to provide a scientific, efficient and comprehensive water resources optimal allocation scheme. Therefore, how to scientifically and reasonably develop and utilize water resources, promote the efficient allocation and optimal management of water resources, and realize the coordinated development of economy, society and ecological environment, is still a key problem to be solved at present. SUMMARY

[0003] In view of the defects in the prior art, the present application provides a regional water resources optimal allocation method and system.

[0004] In order to achieve the above-mentioned purpose, in a first aspect, the present application provides a regional water resources optimal allocation method, which comprises the following steps: constructing a life water prediction model and an ecological water prediction model based on LSTM, for predicting the life water and the ecological water of a target region respectively, and estimating the production water of the target region by the fixed quota method; predicting the available water amount of the target region, combining the prediction results of the life water, the ecological water and the production water, and obtaining the future supply and demand analysis result of the water resources of the target region; when the water demand of the target region is difficult to meet, obtaining the water shortage rate and economic benefit of the water resources optimal allocation plan based on the WEAP model; establishing a water resources optimal allocation model, and then comprehensively considering the water shortage rate and the economic benefit to obtain the best water resources optimal allocation plan. The water resources optimal allocation method of the present application can realize the coordinated development of economy, society and ecological environment while ensuring water safety.

[0005] Optionally, the step of constructing a life water prediction model and an ecological water prediction model based on LSTM for predicting the life water and the ecological water of a target region respectively, and estimating the production water of the target region by the fixed quota method comprises the following steps: determining the influence factors affecting the life water amount and the ecological water amount of the target region, and collecting the historical time series data of the life water, the ecological water and the influence factors; According to the collected historical time series data, a water demand prediction influencing factor is screened from the influencing factors using a Pearson correlation coefficient method; A data set is constructed using historical time series data of the domestic water, the ecological water, and the water demand prediction influencing factor, and then the domestic water prediction model and the ecological water prediction model are constructed based on LSTM; The domestic water and the ecological water of the target region are predicted using the domestic water prediction model and the ecological water prediction model respectively, and the production water of the target region is estimated by a quota method.

[0006] Optionally, the prediction of the water supply capacity of the target region, in combination with the prediction results of the domestic water, the ecological water, and the production water, obtains a future supply and demand analysis result of water resources of the target region, including the following steps: The water supply capacity of the target region in the future is predicted according to the current water supply capacity of the target region and the water supply planning; The supply and demand analysis result of water resources of the target region is obtained according to the prediction results of the domestic water, the ecological water, the production water, and the water supply capacity of the target region.

[0007] Optionally, when the water demand of the target region is difficult to meet, the water resource optimization configuration plan is obtained based on the WEAP model, including the following steps: When the water demand of the target region is difficult to meet, a WEAP model of the target region is constructed according to the actual situation of water resource development, utilization, and allocation of the target region; A plurality of water resource optimization configuration plans of the target region are designed; The WEAP model is run in each of the water resource optimization configuration plans, and then the water shortage rate and economic benefit of each of the water resource optimization configuration plans are obtained.

[0008] Optionally, the design of the plurality of water resource optimization configuration plans of the target region includes the following steps: A plurality of scenario plans are set; The plurality of water resource optimization configuration plans of the target region are obtained by combining different scenario plans.

[0009] Optionally, the water resource optimization configuration model is established, and then the water shortage rate and the economic benefit are comprehensively considered to obtain the best water resource optimization configuration plan, including the following steps: The water resource optimization configuration model is established by comprehensively considering the water shortage rate and the economic benefit; The social benefit value and the economic benefit value of different water resource optimal allocation schemes are calculated, and then the comprehensive benefit value of different water resource optimal allocation schemes is calculated by using the water resource optimal allocation model; According to the actual situation of the target region, the social benefit value, the economic benefit value and the comprehensive benefit value of the water resource optimal allocation scheme are comprehensively considered to obtain the best water resource optimal allocation scheme.

[0010] Optionally, the water resource optimal allocation model satisfies the following relationship: wherein P is the comprehensive benefit value, is a social benefit weight, is the social benefit value, and the greater the social benefit value is, the smaller the water shortage rate is, is an economic benefit weight, is the economic benefit value, and the greater the economic benefit value is, the greater the economic benefit is.

[0011] Optionally, the social benefit value satisfies the following relationship: wherein, is the social benefit value, K is the total number of partitions in the target region, is the upper limit of water consumption of water consumption unit j in the target region, J is the total number of water consumption units, and I is the total number of water sources, is the water intake of water consumption unit j from water source i in partition k.

[0012] Optionally, the economic benefit value satisfies the following relationship: wherein, is the economic benefit value, K is the total number of partitions in the target region, J is the total number of water consumption units, and I is the total number of water sources, is the water supply of water source i in partition k, is the water supply order coefficient of water source i in partition k, is the benefit generated by unit water intake of water consumption unit j from water source i in partition k, is the cost generated by unit water intake of water consumption unit j from water source i in partition k, is the water consumption fairness coefficient of water consumption unit j in partition k.

[0013] In a second aspect, the present application provides a regional water resource optimal allocation system, which comprises a data acquisition device, a data output device, a processor and a storage, wherein the storage comprises a computer readable storage medium, the computer readable storage medium stores a computer program, the computer program comprises program instructions, and the program instructions enable the processor to implement a regional water resource optimal allocation method provided by the present application when executed by the processor.

[0014] The present application has at least the following beneficial effects: 1. The life water and ecological water prediction model is constructed by using LSTM, and the production water is estimated by using the quota method, so that the overall prediction of various types of water in the target region is realized. At the same time, the available water supply is predicted, and the future supply and demand analysis results of water resources are obtained by comprehensively analyzing the prediction results of various types of water, thereby providing accurate data support for water resource optimal allocation.

[0015] 2. When the water demand is difficult to meet, the water shortage rate and economic benefits of the water resource optimal allocation plan are obtained based on the WEAP model, and the effects of different plans are scientifically evaluated, which helps to select a more reasonable water resource management strategy.

[0016] 3. The water resource optimal allocation model is established to comprehensively consider the water shortage rate and economic benefits, and the best water resource optimal allocation plan is obtained. This decision-making method which comprehensively considers social benefits and economic benefits provides a scientific quantitative evaluation tool for decision-makers, which helps to make more objective and accurate decisions, and thus realizes the coordinated development of economy, society and ecological environment while ensuring water safety.

[0017] 4. A system adapted to the method is provided, which helps to improve the practicability of the method and facilitates the popularization of the method. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0018] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application, the following will briefly introduce the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments. It should be understood that the following drawings only show some embodiments of the present application, and therefore should not be regarded as a limitation to the scope, and for those skilled in the art, other related drawings can also be obtained without creative labor.

[0019] Figure 1 The flowchart of a regional water resource optimal allocation method according to an embodiment of the present application is shown. Figure 2 The framework diagram of a regional water resource optimal allocation system according to an embodiment of the present application is shown. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0020] Specific embodiments of the present application will now be described in detail with reference to the following figures. A person of ordinary skill in the art will immediately appreciate that the embodiments described are only exemplary and do not limit the application. In the following description, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the present application. However, it will be apparent to one skilled in the art that the specific details need not be employed to practice the present application. In other instances, well-known circuits, software or processes will not be described in detail in order to avoid obscuring the present application.

[0021] Reference throughout this specification to "one embodiment", "an embodiment", "one example", or "an example" means that a particular feature, structure, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment or example is included in at least one embodiment of the application. Thus, appearances of the phrases "in one embodiment", "in an embodiment", "one example" or "an example" in various places throughout this specification are not necessarily all referring to the same embodiment or example. Furthermore, the particular features, structures, or characteristics can be combined in any suitable

[0022] It is to be understood that the same reference numerals and characters within the drawings refer to elements throughout the description of the application. It is also to be understood that, unless otherwise specified, the use of the singular includes the plural. The following detailed description includes specific details for the purpose of providing a thorough understanding of the inventive concepts. However, it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that the application can be practiced without these specific details. In some instances, well-known structures have not been described in exhaustive detail in order to avoid obscuring the application.

[0023] In an alternative embodiment, see Figure 1 The application provides a regional water resource optimal allocation method, and the method comprises the following steps. S1, constructing a domestic water prediction model and an ecological water prediction model based on LSTM, for predicting domestic water and ecological water of a target region respectively, and estimating production water of the target region through a quota method.

[0024] Specifically, step S1 comprises the following steps. S11, determining influence factors of domestic water and ecological water of a target region, and collecting historical time series data of the domestic water, the ecological water and the influence factors.

[0025] Specifically, in this embodiment, A town is taken as a target region, which comprises five sub-regions of village 1, village 2, village 3, community 1 and community 2. The change of water demand of A town is influenced by population growth, urbanization process, climate condition and water use behavior and other factors. According to the water resource management characteristics of A town and existing literatures, the influence factors, types of influence factors and sources of historical time series data are preliminarily selected as shown in Table 1.

[0026] Table 1. Influencing factors, types of influencing factors and data sources thereof The seven influencing factors in Table 1 cover multiple dimensions such as social and economic development, water resource carrying capacity, and climate and ecological changes. After screening, the final influencing factors are used as the water demand prediction influencing factors for inputting into the prediction model, thereby providing data support for the construction of the LSTM neural network model.

[0027] Further, the historical time series data of domestic water and ecological water of the target region can be obtained by querying the official statistical data or water resource bulletins published by local water resource management departments or statistical departments.

[0028] S12. According to the collected historical time series data, the Pearson correlation coefficient method is used to screen the water demand prediction influencing factors from the influencing factors.

[0029] Specifically, in this embodiment, the Pearson correlation coefficients of each influencing factor with the domestic water consumption and the ecological water consumption are calculated according to the collected historical time series data, and the results are shown in Table 2. The Pearson correlation coefficients in Table 2 are all the results after taking the absolute values.

[0030] Table 2. Pearson correlation coefficients of each influencing factor with domestic water consumption and ecological water consumption Table 2 shows that the Pearson correlation coefficients of the domestic water consumption with the resident population, the urbanization rate and the per capita domestic water consumption are all greater than 0.85; the Pearson correlation coefficients of the ecological water consumption with the annual average rainfall and the annual average temperature are both greater than 0.75; and the Pearson correlation coefficients of the water resource utilization rate with the domestic water consumption and the ecological water consumption are only 0.42 and 0.39, respectively, which are to be removed. According to the correlation analysis results, data integrity and actual availability, the following six influencing factors are finally determined as the water demand prediction influencing factors, which are the resident population, the urbanization rate, the per capita domestic water consumption, the annual average rainfall, the annual average temperature and the historical water demand lag term. The selected water demand prediction influencing factors not only cover the core aspects of society, climate, management and data structure, but also have data stability and annual integrity, which can effectively support the time series learning of the LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory neural network).

[0031] S13. A data set is constructed using the historical time series data of the domestic water, the ecological water and the water demand prediction influencing factors, and then the domestic water prediction model and the ecological water prediction model are constructed based on the LSTM.

[0032] Specifically, in the present embodiment, first, the historical time series data of the domestic water, the ecological water and the water demand prediction influencing factors are standardized by using the Z-Score standardization method, and then the standardized historical time series data is used to construct a data set. Then, the water demand prediction influencing factors are used as the input of the LSTM, and the domestic water or the ecological water is used as the output of the LSTM, and then the data set is used to complete the training and verification of the LSTM, and the domestic water prediction model and the ecological water prediction model are obtained.

[0033] More specifically, before the LSTM is trained, the data set can be divided into a training set and a verification set according to a ratio of 8:2.

[0034] S14, the domestic water and the ecological water of the target area are predicted by using the domestic water prediction model and the ecological water prediction model respectively, and the production water of the target area is estimated by using the fixed quota method.

[0035] Specifically, in the present embodiment, after the construction of the domestic water prediction model and the ecological water prediction model is completed, the domestic water prediction model is used to predict the domestic water of the base year (2021), the medium-term planning level year (2025) and the long-term planning level year (2035) for different partitions of A town, the ecological water prediction model is used to predict the ecological water of the base year (2021), the medium-term planning level year (2025) and the long-term planning level year (2035), and the fixed quota method is used to estimate the multi-year average production water, the production water with a guarantee rate P of 75% and the production water with a guarantee rate P of 95% of the base year (2021), the medium-term planning level year (2025) and the long-term planning level year (2035).

[0036] Further, the production water of A town mainly includes agricultural irrigation water and forestry water, so the production water of A town can be calculated by the following formula: Wherein, W is the production water; is the agricultural irrigation water; is the forestry water; is the cultivated land area; is the unit area irrigation water, which is set according to different crops and climate conditions; is the forest land area; is the unit area forestry water demand, which is set according to tree species, forest land type and climate conditions. and The local standards such as local agricultural water quota can be obtained by inquiry.

[0037] According to the local agricultural and forestry planning of the target region, the cultivated land area, crop planting situation, forestry area and tree planting situation in different years in the future are determined, and then the production water of the target region in different years can be estimated.

[0038] More specifically, the prediction results of domestic water, ecological water and production water of the target region are shown in Table 3.

[0039] Table 3 Prediction results of different water in different years The unit of domestic water, ecological water and production water is "m 3 ", and P=90% means that in the statistics of many years, the production water in 90% of the years will not exceed the value.

[0040] S2, the available water of the target region is predicted, and the prediction results of the domestic water, the ecological water and the production water are combined to obtain the future supply and demand analysis results of the water resources of the target region.

[0041] Specifically, step S2 includes the following steps: S21, according to the available water of the current water source of the target region and the water supply planning, the available water of the target region in the future is predicted.

[0042] Specifically, in the present embodiment, in the base year, the water source in the target region is a small water conservancy facility such as mountain pond, underground well and the like, except for the reservoir 1. Among them, there are 82 mountain ponds, 58 underground centralized wells, 385 dispersed manpower wells and 525 other small water supply facilities. After calculation, the multi-year average available water of the target region in the base year is 970,000 m 3 , the available water under P=75% guarantee rate is 937,000 m 3 , and the available water under P=95% guarantee rate is 903,000 m 3 . The water supply quantity statistical results of the target region in the base year are shown in Table 4.

[0043] Table 4 Water supply quantity statistical results of the target region in the base year In Table 4, the water supply quantity unit is "ten thousand m 3 ", and the irrigation area is "mu".

[0044] Further, the newly available water of the target region in the medium-term planning level year mainly comes from the local small water conservancy facilities and the water transfer from the external region. Specifically, on the basis of the base year, the target region plans to renovate 5 mountain ponds, build 3 new mountain ponds, and call water resources from the reservoir 2. The available water of the target region in the medium-term planning level year is shown in Table 5.

[0045] Table 5 Statistical results of water supply capacity of the target area in the mid-term planning level year In Table 5, all small water supply facilities include all small water conservancy facilities and all other small water supply facilities.

[0046] In the long-term planning level year, the water demand of the target area is fundamentally alleviated with the operation of the diversion project. In line with the characteristics of "water is used according to its quality", the target area plans to supply all domestic water by the diversion project, reservoir 1 is adjusted to an irrigation reservoir, and reservoir 2 is no longer used as a water source for the target area. The small water supply facilities remain unchanged compared to the mid-term planning level year. The water supply capacity of the target area in the long-term planning level year is shown in Table 6.

[0047] Table 6 Statistical results of water supply capacity of the target area in the long-term planning level year S22, according to the prediction results of the domestic water, the ecological water, the production water and the water supply capacity in the target area, the supply and demand analysis results of the water resources in the target area are obtained.

[0048] Specifically, in this embodiment, the water resources supply and demand analysis results of the target area in the base year, the mid-term planning level year and the long-term planning level year are shown in Tables 7 to 9, respectively.

[0049] Table 7 Water resources supply and demand analysis results of the target area in the base year Table 8 Water resources supply and demand analysis results of the target area in the mid-term planning level year Table 9 Water resources supply and demand analysis results of the target area in the long-term planning level year The total water demand is the sum of domestic water, ecological water and production water.

[0050] S3, when the water demand of the target area is difficult to meet, the water shortage rate and economic benefits of the water resources optimal allocation plan are obtained based on the WEAP model.

[0051] Specifically, step S3 includes the following steps: S31, when the water demand of the target area is difficult to meet, a WEAP model of the target area is constructed according to the actual situation of water resources development, utilization and allocation of the target area.

[0052] Specifically, in the present embodiment, after analyzing the water resources supply and demand of the target region in the reference year, the medium-term planning level year and the long-term planning level year, it is found that the water demand of the target region in the future stage is difficult to fully meet, therefore, the present embodiment will carry out systematic water resources optimal allocation based on the WEAP model.

[0053] The WEAP model is used to simulate the structure of the water resources system, which is relatively complete and mainly composed of 14 functional elements, including: river, tributary, reservoir, groundwater source, other water sources, demand point, catchment basin, runoff / infiltration connection, water transfer connection, backflow connection, sewage treatment facility, overwater hydropower station, flow control requirement and flow measurement station. These elements together constitute a complete recycling system of "supply-demand-reuse" in the water resources system, which can more truly reflect the structure and operation process of the actual water system.

[0054] In the present embodiment, the water sources, hydraulic engineering facilities and water users in the water resources system of the target region are modeled based on the actual situation of water resources development, utilization and allocation in the target region, and the framework of the water resources system in the WEAP model of the target region is constructed. The elements in the framework are integrated through functional nodes and logical connections to form a regional water resources allocation network. At the same time, the WEAP model sets multiple constraint conditions including water supply constraint, department water consumption constraint and water transfer capacity constraint, to ensure the rationality and feasibility of the water resources allocation process in the physical, economic and policy aspects. Through this structured modeling method, the WEAP model can dynamically reflect the matching relationship and scheduling mechanism between water resources supply and demand in the target region, and provide reliable support for multi-scenario comparison and scheme optimization.

[0055] More specifically, the inputs of the WEAP model include water resources information such as domestic water, ecological water, production water, river inflow, mountain pond water supply, water diversion configuration of water diversion projects, and key parameter settings.

[0056] Further, in order to ensure the high accuracy and reliability of the WEAP model in simulating the water resources optimal allocation of the target region, the WEAP model must be calibrated and verified. Model calibration is a process of estimating model parameters to match the real situation and simulation behavior, and the accuracy of the model structure is evaluated by directly comparing the simulation value with the historical value. The demand point water demand in the WEAP model is verified by simulating the base year as the present situation year, and the results are shown in Table 10.

[0057] Table 10 Calibration and verification results of WEAP model As can be seen from Table 10, the simulation value of domestic water is well fitted with the actual value, and the relative error of production water shows certain volatility. The calibration result shows that the overall relative error between the simulation value and the measured value is controlled within ± 5%, which meets the accuracy requirement. Therefore, it can be considered that the WEAP model constructed has high reliability and applicability, and can support the prediction and optimization simulation of water resource scenarios in subsequent planning years.

[0058] S32, design a water resource optimization allocation plan for multiple target regions.

[0059] Specifically, in the embodiment, the scenario plans include a reference plan, a scenario plan based on development factors, a scenario plan based on water use management factors, and a scenario plan based on water supply factors. S321, set multiple scenario plans.

[0060] Specifically, in the embodiment, the scenario plans include a reference plan, a scenario plan based on development factors, a scenario plan based on water use management factors, and a scenario plan based on water supply factors.

[0061] 1. Reference plan The present plan is one of the water resource optimization allocation plans, which is based on the social economy, water resources and engineering parameters in the present situation year, does not introduce any social economic development policy, water use management measure or water supply engineering adjustment measure, and is used to simulate the future water resource allocation condition of the target region under the natural development trend. The establishment of the plan aims to serve as a comparison benchmark for other planning scenarios. Through comparison with the simulation results of different development plans, the influence of each scheme on the regional water resource system is evaluated, thereby providing a reference for subsequent optimization allocation.

[0062] 2. Scenario plan based on development factors This type of plan simulates the difference in water demand caused by changes in the regional social and economic development level while keeping the remaining control conditions such as water use management policy and water supply engineering layout unchanged. According to the adjustment trend of the policy and the change in the scale of future investment and construction, the embodiment constructs a combined scenario based on two key hypothetical factors of population growth and economic development, which is divided into three regional development plans of rapid development type, normal development type and slow development type.

[0063] Rapid development plan: based on the social and economic policy orientation and development strategy of the target region in recent years, it is predicted that the population and economy will maintain a high growth level, reflecting the water demand situation of the region in the active expansion mode; Normal development plan: continuing the existing social and economic growth trend, the base assumption of the reference plan is used as input in terms of population and economic index prediction, which is a natural continuation simulation of the current development state; Slow development plan: considering the adverse factors such as slow population growth, weakened investment or unfulfilled economic development expectations in the future, it simulates the change in water demand under low-speed development.

[0064] In setting the population and economic growth rate of each scenario, the historical sequence data of the target area population and industrial added value are needed to extract the growth trend of population and economy, and to set the growth rate corresponding to different development scenarios on the basis of the reference plan, and finally form the planning year population and economic forecast results under each development scenario. The specific settings are shown in Table 11.

[0065] Table 11 Growth rates corresponding to different development scenarios 3. Scenario plan based on water use management factors This type of plan simulates the changes in water demand in the target area caused by adjustments in water use policies and management measures while keeping other development factors (such as economic growth, water supply projects, etc.) unchanged. Combined with the future water use efficiency improvement targets of the country and the target area, this example sets the application level of water-saving appliances as the main control variable and sets three typical water use management plans: strong water-saving appliance development plan, moderate water-saving appliance development plan, and no water-saving appliance development plan.

[0066] Strong water-saving appliance development plan: In the context of rapid social and economic development, through large-scale introduction of advanced water-saving equipment and optimization of production processes, the efficiency of water use for life and production is significantly improved, achieving the goal of minimizing total water demand; Moderate water-saving appliance development plan: In the context of stable growth of social economy, through continuous implementation of water use management policies and encouragement of the application of water-saving production and living equipment, the total water demand is moderately controlled; No water-saving appliance development plan: No changes are made to the original water use management, and no new water-saving measures are introduced, simulating the water demand change process under the situation of slowing down of social and economic development and lagging behind of water use management policies.

[0067] In terms of parameter setting, reference is made to policies and industry standards such as "Literature Review of Life Water-Saving Appliances", "National Encouraged Industrial Water-Saving Processes, Technologies and Equipment Catalogue", etc., combined with the current water use situation and policy adaptability of the target area, the corresponding water-saving rate and water-saving reconstruction investment cost are set for different water use departments in each water use management plan, as shown in Table 12.

[0068] Table 12 Water-saving rate and water-saving reconstruction investment cost of each water use management plan 4. Scenario plan based on water supply factors The scenario plan based on water supply factors is to simulate the influence on the water supply and demand balance pattern of the target region by adjusting the development and utilization mode and water supply capacity of each water source under the premise that the social and economic development level, water use policy and management measures and other factors remain unchanged. According to the development status, future planning target and resource potential of the existing water source of the target region, the development amount increasing, development amount unchanged and development amount decreasing three plans are set as the variable of water supply scale in this embodiment.

[0069] S322, obtain the water resource optimization allocation plans of multiple target regions by combining different scenario plans.

[0070] Specifically, in this embodiment, on the basis of the scenario plans divided in step S321, the coupling effect and interaction relationship between each factor are further considered to construct a comprehensive water resource optimization allocation plan. By reasonably combining each scenario plan, ten water resource optimization allocation plans are set as the reference plan, the fast development-strong water saving-development amount increasing, the fast development-strong water saving-development amount unchanged, the fast development-moderate water saving-development amount increasing, the fast development-moderate water saving-development amount unchanged, the normal development-moderate water saving-development amount unchanged, the normal development-moderate water saving-development amount decreasing, the normal development-no water saving-development amount decreasing, the slow development-no water saving-development amount unchanged and the slow development-no water saving-development amount decreasing, which are used to simulate the operation characteristics and optimization results of the water resource system under the combined action of multiple variables.

[0071] More specifically, the ten water resource optimization allocation plans are in turn the reference plan, the fast development-strong water saving-development amount increasing, the fast development-strong water saving-development amount unchanged, the fast development-moderate water saving-development amount increasing, the fast development-moderate water saving-development amount unchanged, the normal development-moderate water saving-development amount unchanged, the normal development-moderate water saving-development amount decreasing, the normal development-no water saving-development amount decreasing, the slow development-no water saving-development amount unchanged and the slow development-no water saving-development amount decreasing.

[0072] S33, run each water resource optimization allocation plan in the WEAP model, and then obtain the water shortage rate and economic benefit of each water resource optimization allocation plan.

[0073] Specifically, in this embodiment, after the setting of each scenario plan is completed, the model is run through the “Results” module built in the WEAP model to obtain the simulation results of each plan in different planning periods. The simulation results of the mid-term planning level year are shown in Tables 13 and 14.

[0074] Table 13 Water shortage of each water resource optimization allocation plan simulated by the WEAP model Table 14 The target region benefit of each water resource optimization allocation plan simulated by the WEAP model The simulation results in Table 13 show that the "slow development - no water conservation - unchanged development" scenario achieved the lowest total water shortage rate in the medium-term planning year. The model indicates that under this scenario, the water demand of all demand sides was met, and the system's supply and demand were basically balanced. Conversely, the "rapid development - moderate water conservation - unchanged development" scenario had the highest water shortage rate, only meeting 93.23% of the water demand. These results indicate that under a scenario of rapid socio-economic development, if water supply capacity is not expanded in tandem, there will be a significant risk of water shortage. However, under a medium or slower growth model, it is possible to maintain the current water supply development intensity or even appropriately reduce the scale of development.

[0075] Regarding the economic benefits of water supply projects, the simulation results in Table 14 show that the total revenue of water supply projects corresponding to the "rapid development - strong water conservation - increased development" plan is the lowest, exhibiting a negative benefit; while the total revenue of water supply projects corresponding to the "normal development - no water conservation - reduced development" plan is the highest, reaching a cumulative 3.42 million yuan. This indicates that in scenarios with relatively low water demand pressure, better economic benefits can be achieved by controlling project investment. This comparison also illustrates that in scenarios with rapid regional development, it is necessary to correspondingly increase investment in water supply facility construction to ensure the stability of water resource supply.

[0076] Overall, it is difficult to comprehensively judge the merits of various water resource optimization plans based solely on two indicators: water shortage rate and regional GDP. Therefore, subsequent efforts will be made to determine the optimal water resource optimization plan based on a water resource optimization model.

[0077] S4. Establish a water resource optimization allocation model, and then comprehensively consider the water shortage rate and the economic benefits to obtain the best water resource optimization allocation plan.

[0078] Step S4 specifically includes the following steps: S41. Taking into account the water shortage rate and the economic benefits, establish a water resource optimization allocation model.

[0079] Specifically, in this embodiment, the process of optimizing water resource allocation should comprehensively consider the coordinated improvement of social and economic benefits in the target area, striving to achieve optimal resource utilization efficiency while ensuring water security. Before formulating an optimization plan, it is essential to fully consider relevant constraints such as regional development goals, government policy guidance, and resource and environmental carrying capacity, and construct a multi-objective optimization model that meets actual needs. The multi-objective optimization model constructed in this embodiment is the water resource optimization allocation model, which satisfies the following relationship: Where P is the comprehensive benefit value, Weighting by social benefits, This represents the social benefit value; a higher social benefit value indicates a lower water shortage rate. is an economic benefit weight, is an economic benefit value, and the greater the economic benefit value is, the greater the economic benefit is.

[0080] More specifically, the social benefit value and the economic benefit value satisfy the following relationships in turn: wherein K is the total number of partitions in the target region, is the upper limit of water use of water use unit j in the target region, J is the total number of water use units, and I is the total number of water sources, is the water intake of water use unit j from water source i in partition k, is the water supply of water source i in partition k, is the water supply order coefficient of water source i in partition k, is the benefit generated by unit water intake of water use unit j from water source i in partition k, is the cost generated by unit water intake of water use unit j from water source i in partition k, is the water use fairness coefficient of water use unit j in partition k.

[0081] S42, calculate the social benefit value and the economic benefit value of different water resource optimization allocation schemes, and further calculate the comprehensive benefit value of different water resource optimization allocation schemes using the water resource optimization allocation model.

[0082] Specifically, in the present embodiment, after the social benefit value and the economic benefit value of different water resource optimization allocation schemes are calculated, the obtained benefit values need to be normalized to eliminate dimensional differences and ensure that the social benefit values and the economic benefit values are comparable in the same evaluation dimension. In the present embodiment, the Min-Max normalization method is used to normalize the benefit values, and then, in combination with the social benefit weight and the economic benefit weight calculated by the analytic hierarchy process, the comprehensive benefit value of each water resource optimization allocation scheme can be calculated. Finally, by sorting and comparing the comprehensive benefit values of different water resource optimization allocation schemes, the scheme with the highest comprehensive benefit value is determined as the optimal water resource allocation scheme, which provides a scientific basis and technical support for water supply strategic deployment and water resource management policy of the target region.

[0083] Before the Min-Max normalization method is used to normalize each benefit value, the directionality of the index attribute is first judged, and is divided into positive indicators (the larger the value, the better) and reverse indicators (the smaller the value, the better). For reverse indicators, positive and negative conversion processing is required before all indicators are standardized using the Min-Max normalization method. In the analytic hierarchy process, when constructing the judgment matrix, according to the principle of "prioritizing water demand, and then maximizing economic benefits", considering the water resources management objectives and planning constraints of the study area, the relative weights of social benefits and economic benefits in the optimization allocation are determined, and the social benefit weight and economic benefit weight are finally 0.67 and 0.33, respectively.

[0084] More specifically, based on the simulation results of step S33 and the content described in step S41, the social benefit value and economic benefit value of each water resources optimization allocation plan are shown in Table 15 and Table 16, respectively.

[0085] Table 15 Social benefit value of each water resources optimization allocation plan Table 16 Economic benefit value of each water resources optimization allocation plan According to Table 15, among all ten water resources optimization allocation plans, the social benefit value of the "slow development-no water saving-development amount unchanged" plan is the highest, reaching 0.59. This result is mainly due to the relatively low total water demand in the target area under the slow development scenario, which significantly reduces the pressure on the water supply system and improves water use satisfaction rate and social fairness. However, it should be noted that although this plan performs well in the social benefit dimension, its development speed deviates from the economic and social development plan proposed by the local government, and there is a lack of overall development target matching.

[0086] From the results of Table 16, the "rapid development-strong water saving-development amount increased" plan has the highest economic benefit value among the ten water resources optimization allocation plans, reaching 0.41. Compared with the "slow development-no water saving-development amount decreased" plan with the lowest economic benefit value, the difference is 0.88. This result shows that although the "rapid development-strong water saving-development amount increased" plan requires a large construction cost in the water supply engineering, the water demand of various water departments can be basically met, which drives the regional economic output level and improves the economic output benefit of unit water resources.

[0087] According to the data in Table 15 and Table 16, the comprehensive benefit value of each water resources optimization allocation plan is obtained by combining the water resources optimization allocation model.

[0088] S43、According to the actual situation of the target region, the social benefit value, the economic benefit value and the comprehensive benefit value of the water resource optimal allocation plan are comprehensively considered to obtain the best water resource optimal allocation plan.

[0089] Specifically, in the embodiment, the comprehensive benefit values of the water resource optimal allocation plans are comprehensively sorted, and the result is shown in Table 17. The water resource optimal allocation plan with the highest comprehensive benefit value can be used as the optimal water resource allocation scheme of the target region, and provides a decision basis for future water resource scheduling and engineering construction of the target region.

[0090] Table 17: Comprehensive benefit value sorting result of water resource optimal allocation plan According to Table 17, the best water resource optimal allocation plan corresponding to the target region under different social and economic development speeds is significantly different. Among them, under the rapid development scenario, the “rapid development-strong water saving-increase in development amount” plan has the highest comprehensive benefit value among similar plans, and is the plan with the highest comprehensive benefit value among all water resource optimal allocation plans, and the comprehensive benefit value is 0.98. The plan takes into account strong economic output and good water supply capacity, and has high feasibility, and is recommended as the preferred implementation scheme of the water resource allocation and management strategy of the target region.

[0091] If the future social and economic development of the target region is in the medium-speed growth stage, the “normal development-moderate water saving-unchanged development amount” plan is the best among similar plans, and the comprehensive benefit value is 0.52, which guarantees a certain level of economic benefit on the basis of achieving moderate water saving and supply-demand balance. Under the low-speed development scenario, the best water resource optimal allocation plan is “low-speed development-no water saving-unchanged development amount”, and the comprehensive benefit value is 0.14, which is relatively low, but has high social benefit and resource utilization stability under this kind of scenario.

[0092] From the analysis of the optimal allocation of water resources, it can be seen that high water shortage rate will significantly reduce the comprehensive benefit value. Even if the economic benefit is better, if the basic water demand cannot be met, it is difficult to form the best optimal allocation of water resources. The water resources optimal allocation plan with low economic benefit cannot obtain the optimal evaluation under the condition of high social water satisfaction rate, which shows that the single index advantage is not enough to support comprehensive optimization, and the allocation analysis needs to be carried out from the overall multidimensional perspective. From the single dimension of social benefit, although the water resources optimal allocation plan with high social benefit ranks in the front in terms of comprehensive benefit value, such as "low-speed development-no water saving-development capacity unchanged", due to the limited economic growth, it is difficult to match the long-term development plan of the region, and the overall benefit is at a medium level. The water resources optimal allocation plan with high economic benefit, such as "rapid development-strong water saving-development capacity unchanged" and "rapid development-moderate water saving-development capacity unchanged", is limited by the high water shortage risk, which restricts the normal operation of water consumption departments and potential constraints on regional development, resulting in unsatisfactory comprehensive benefit evaluation.

[0093] Therefore, the final determination of this embodiment is that "rapid development-strong water saving-development capacity increased" is the best optimal allocation of water resources in the target region. This plan realizes a relatively ideal balance in economic growth, water resources guarantee and water efficiency, and the comprehensive benefit evaluation is significantly better than other plans. According to the simulation calculation results of this plan, the water resources allocation situation of the target region in the medium-term planning level year and the long-term planning level year is shown in Table 18 and Table 19.

[0094] Table 18 Water resources allocation situation of target region in medium-term planning level year Table 19 Water resources allocation situation of target region in long-term planning level year According to the results in Table 18 and Table 19, the "rapid development-strong water saving-development capacity increased" plan brings higher economic benefit, but also accompanied by significant capital investment demand, and a large number of water supply facilities need to be built to meet the rapid development of water demand. This shows that although this plan is the best in terms of comprehensive benefit, its implementation premise puts forward higher requirements for financial capacity, infrastructure conditions and technical support, and it belongs to a configuration scheme with high investment intensity and strict implementation conditions.

[0095] Further, the "normal development-moderate water saving-development capacity unchanged" plan is slightly inferior in economic benefit, but its capital investment cost is relatively low, and it still has high comprehensive benefit under the premise of low input, especially in the medium-speed development scenario. It is a feasible alternative scheme with high resource utilization efficiency and controllable cost input.

[0096] Therefore, local decision makers can combine their own financial budget, development strategy and resource allocation ability, comprehensively weigh the development target and investment boundary, and select the optimal allocation scheme that is most suitable for the local actuality.

[0097] It should be noted that in some cases, the actions described in the specification can be performed in different orders and still achieve the desired results, in the present embodiment, the order of the steps given is only to make the embodiment look clearer and more convenient to explain, and is not a limitation.

[0098] In an optional embodiment, referring to Figure 2 In order to improve the practicability of the method and facilitate the popularization of the method, the present application further provides a regional water resource optimal allocation system, which comprises a data acquisition device 1, a data output device 2, a processor 3 and a storage 4, the storage 4 comprises a computer readable storage medium, the computer readable storage medium stores a computer program, the computer program comprises program instructions, and the program instructions make the processor 3 realize the contents of steps S1 to S4 when the program instructions are executed by the processor 3.

[0099] In summary, the present application has at least the following beneficial effects: 1. The LSTM is used to construct the prediction models for domestic water and ecological water, and the production water is estimated by the quota method, so that the overall prediction of various types of water in the target area is realized. At the same time, the available water supply is predicted, and the future supply and demand analysis results of water resources are obtained by comprehensively analyzing the prediction results of various types of water, which provides accurate data support for water resource optimal allocation. 2. Multiple scenario plans are designed, and multiple water resource optimal allocation plans are obtained by combining different scenario plans, which increases the flexibility and adaptability of the plans and can better meet the water resource management needs in different situations. 3. When the water demand is difficult to meet, the water resource optimal allocation plan is obtained based on the WEAP model, and the effect of different plans is evaluated scientifically, which helps to select more reasonable water resource management strategies. 4. The water resource optimal allocation model is established to comprehensively consider the water shortage rate and economic benefits, and the best water resource optimal allocation plan is obtained. This decision-making method that considers social benefits and economic benefits provides a scientific and quantitative evaluation tool for decision makers, which helps to make more objective and accurate decisions, and thus realizes the coordinated development of economy, society and ecological environment while ensuring water safety. 5. A system adapted to the method is provided, which helps to improve the practicability of the method and facilitate the popularization of the method.

[0100] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present application, and are not intended to limit the present application; although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that the technical solutions recorded in the foregoing embodiments can still be modified, or some or all of the technical features can be replaced by equivalents; and these modifications or replacements do not make the essence of the corresponding technical solutions deviate from the scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application, and they should be covered in the scope of the claims and the description of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for optimal allocation of regional water resources, characterized in that, The method comprises the following steps: Based on LSTM, a domestic water prediction model and an ecological water prediction model are constructed to predict the domestic water and ecological water of the target region respectively, and the production water of the target region is estimated by the quota method; The available water supply of the target region is predicted, and the future supply and demand analysis result of the water resources of the target region is obtained by combining the prediction results of the domestic water, the ecological water and the production water; When the water demand of the target region is difficult to meet, the water shortage rate and economic benefit of the water resources optimal allocation plan are obtained based on the WEAP model; The water resources optimal allocation model is established, and the best water resources optimal allocation plan is obtained by comprehensively considering the water shortage rate and the economic benefit.

2. The method for optimal allocation of regional water resources according to claim 1, wherein, The method based on LSTM to construct the domestic water prediction model and the ecological water prediction model to predict the domestic water and ecological water of the target region respectively, and estimate the production water of the target region by the quota method comprises the following steps: Determine the influencing factors of the domestic water and ecological water of the target region, and collect the historical time series data of the domestic water, the ecological water and the influencing factors; According to the collected historical time series data, the Pearson correlation coefficient method is used to screen the water demand prediction influencing factors from the influencing factors; The historical time series data of the domestic water, the ecological water and the water demand prediction influencing factors are used to construct a data set, and then the domestic water prediction model and the ecological water prediction model are constructed based on LSTM; The domestic water prediction model and the ecological water prediction model are used to predict the domestic water and ecological water of the target region respectively, and the production water of the target region is estimated by the quota method.

3. The method for optimal allocation of regional water resources according to claim 1, wherein, The method of predicting the available water supply of the target region, combining the prediction results of the domestic water, the ecological water and the production water, and obtaining the future supply and demand analysis result of the water resources of the target region comprises the following steps: According to the available water supply of the current water source of the target region and the water supply planning, the available water supply of the target region in the future is predicted; According to the prediction results of the domestic water, the ecological water, the production water and the available water supply of the target region, the supply and demand analysis result of the water resources of the target region is obtained.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein, The method of obtaining the water shortage rate and economic benefit of the water resources optimal allocation plan based on the WEAP model when the water demand of the target region is difficult to meet comprises the following steps: When the water demand of the target region is difficult to meet, the WEAP model of the target region is constructed according to the actual situation of water resources development, utilization and allocation of the target region; Design multiple water resources optimal allocation plans of the target region; Run each water resources optimal allocation plan in the WEAP model to obtain the water shortage rate and economic benefit of each water resources optimal allocation plan.

5. The method for optimal allocation of regional water resources according to claim 4, wherein, The method of designing multiple water resources optimal allocation plans of the target region comprises the following steps: Set multiple scenario plans; Obtain the water resources optimal allocation plan of the target region by combining different scenario plans.

6. The method for optimal allocation of regional water resources according to claim 1, wherein, The establishing of the water resource optimal allocation model, and then the comprehensive consideration of the water shortage rate and the economic benefit, obtains the best water resource optimal allocation plan, and comprises the following steps: The water resource optimal allocation model is established by comprehensively considering the water shortage rate and the economic benefit; The social benefit value and the economic benefit value of different water resource optimal allocation plans are calculated, and then the comprehensive benefit value of different water resource optimal allocation plans is calculated by using the water resource optimal allocation model; According to the actual situation of the target area, the social benefit value, the economic benefit value and the comprehensive benefit value of the water resource optimal allocation plan are comprehensively considered, and the best water resource optimal allocation plan is obtained.

7. The method for optimal allocation of regional water resources according to claim 6, wherein, The water resource optimal allocation model satisfies the following relationship: wherein P is the comprehensive benefit value, is a social benefit weight, is the social benefit value, and the greater the social benefit value is, the smaller the water shortage rate is, is an economic benefit weight, is the economic benefit value, and the greater the economic benefit value is, the greater the economic benefit is.

8. The method for optimal allocation of regional water resources according to claim 6, wherein, The social benefit value satisfies the following relationship: wherein, K is the total number of partitions in the target region, K is the total number of partitions in the target region, K is the total number of partitions in the target region, 9. The method for optimal allocation of regional water resources according to claim 6, wherein, The economic benefit value satisfies the following relationship: wherein, is the economic benefit value, K is the total number of subareas in the target area, J is the total number of water-using units, I is the total number of water sources, is the water supply amount of water source i in subarea k, is the water supply order coefficient of water source i in subarea k, is the benefit generated by the unit water intake amount of water-using unit j from water source i in subarea k, is the cost generated by the unit water intake amount of water-using unit j from water source i in subarea k, is the water use fairness coefficient of water-using unit j in subarea k.

10. A system for optimal allocation of regional water resources, characterized in that, The water resource optimal allocation system comprises a data acquisition device, a data output device, a processor and a storage. The storage comprises a computer readable storage medium, and the computer readable storage medium stores a computer program. The computer program comprises program instructions, and the program instructions enable the processor to implement the water resource optimal allocation method according to any one of claims 1-9 when executed by the processor.

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