A power grid peak shaving demand calculation method and system

Abstract

The present application relates to a kind of power grid peak shaving demand calculation method and system, comprising: according to the predicted load of power grid in control period, determine the installed capacity of new energy generator set in power grid in control period;According to the installed capacity of new energy generator set in power grid in control period, determine the power of new energy power generation abandoned in power grid in control period;According to the power of new energy power generation abandoned in power grid in control period, determine the new energy abandoned power that power grid needs to recover in control period;According to the new energy abandoned power that power grid needs to recover in control period, determine the peak shaving demand of power grid.The technical scheme provided by the present application more accurately calculates the peak shaving demand of power grid with new energy power generation, and then provides technical guidance for the capacity planning of flexible transformation of thermal power unit.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of peak regulation of thermal power generation units, and in particular to a method and system for calculating peak regulation demand of a power grid. Background Art

[0002] At present, although new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaic power generation are still maintaining a rapid development momentum, the difficulty in absorbing new energy is still a real problem that restricts the large-scale access of new energy. Especially in cold areas with abundant wind and photovoltaic resources, the problem of wind power absorption during the winter heating period is still prominent.

[0003] At present, the analysis of power system peak-shaving demand is mainly based on the typical day method, which considers more the peak-shaving shortage of power system operation after the access of conventional thermal power, hydropower or nuclear power, under the condition that the load presents a certain regularity, and takes into account different scenarios of new energy output during the calculation process.

[0004] However, judging from the actual situation of wind power and photovoltaic power generation, the power generation output of this type of power source is characterized by randomness, volatility and intermittency. The typical day analysis method cannot fully consider the characteristics of new energy power generation output, resulting in relatively rough calculation results. The peak-shaving capacity demand calculation results deviate from the actual needs of power system operation. Summary of the Invention

[0005] In view of the shortcomings of the existing technology, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for calculating the peak-shaving demand of the power grid, which more accurately calculates the peak-shaving demand of the power grid with the participation of renewable energy power generation, and further provides technical guidance for the capacity planning of flexible transformation of thermal power units.

[0006] The purpose of the present invention is achieved by adopting the following technical solutions:

[0007] The present invention provides a method for calculating peak load demand of a power grid, the improvement of which is that it includes:

[0008] Determine the installed capacity of the new energy generator sets in the power grid within the control period according to the predicted load of the power grid within the control period;

[0009] Determine the abandoned power of the renewable energy generator sets in the power grid during the control period according to the installed capacity of the renewable energy generator sets in the power grid during the control period;

[0010] Determine the amount of abandoned renewable energy power that needs to be recovered by the grid during the control period based on the abandoned power of renewable energy generators in the grid during the control period;

[0011] The peak regulation demand of the power grid is determined based on the amount of abandoned renewable energy that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period.

[0012] Preferably, the new energy generator set includes a wind generator set and a photovoltaic generator set; and determining the installed capacity of the new energy generator set in the power grid within the control period according to the predicted load of the power grid within the control period includes:

[0013] Determine the installed capacity C of the wind turbine generator set in the new energy generator set in the power grid during the control period by the following formula: w :

[0014]

[0015] Determine the installed capacity C of the photovoltaic generator set in the new energy generator set in the power grid during the control period by the following formula: pv :

[0016]

[0017] Where λ w is the installed capacity ratio of wind turbines in the power grid, λ pv is the installed capacity ratio of photovoltaic generators in the power grid, Q L is the predicted load of the power grid during the control period, R n is the control index of the curtailment rate of renewable energy power generation, H w is the historical average of wind power generation, R w is the control index of wind power curtailment rate, H pv is the average value of historical photovoltaic power generation, R pv It is a control indicator for the photovoltaic power generation curtailment rate.

[0018] Preferably, determining the abandoned power of the new energy generator sets in the power grid within the control period according to the installed capacity of the new energy generator sets in the power grid within the control period includes:

[0019] Substitute the installed capacity of renewable energy generators in the power grid during the control period into the pre-built renewable energy consumption simulation model to obtain the wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation of each aggregated power grid in each time period during the control period;

[0020] The abandoned power of each aggregated power grid in each time period within the control period is determined according to the wind power generation power and photovoltaic power generation power of each aggregated power grid in each time period within the control period.

[0021] Furthermore, the objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined as follows:

[0022]

[0023] Where F is the power generated by renewable energy in the power grid during the control period, P w (t,n) is the wind power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period during the control period, Ppv (t,n) is the photovoltaic power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth time period during the control period, t∈(1~T), T is the total number of time periods in the control period, n∈(1~G), G is the total number of aggregated grids;

[0024] The new energy power generation output constraint condition of the objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined as follows:

[0025]

[0026] Where C w To control the installed capacity of wind turbines in the renewable energy generators in the power grid during the period, C pv In order to control the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation units in the new energy power generation units in the power grid during the period, is the normalized upper limit of wind power generation in the nth aggregated grid during the control period at the tth period, is the normalized upper limit of photovoltaic power generation of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period within the control period;

[0027] The regional load balance constraint condition of the objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined as follows:

[0028]

[0029] Where, P c (t,n) is the power generation of other power generation equipment in the nth aggregated grid in the tth period within the control period, △L i (t,n) is the power of the ith tie line of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period within the control period, P l (t,n) is the predicted load of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period within the control period, i∈(1~Q), Q is the total number of tie lines;

[0030] The inter-regional line transmission capacity constraint condition of the objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined as follows:

[0031] -L i,max ≤L i (t,n)≤L i,max

[0032] Where, L i,max is the maximum power of the i-th tie line;

[0033] The unit power ramp rate constraint condition of the objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined as follows:

[0034]

[0035] Where, P c (t+1,n) is the power generation of other power generation equipment in the nth aggregated power grid in the t+1th period within the control period, △P c,up (n) is the ramp rate of other power generation equipment in the nth aggregated grid during the control period, △P c,down (n) is the ramp-down rate of other power generation equipment in the nth aggregated grid during the control period.

[0036] Furthermore, determining the abandoned power of each aggregated power grid in each time period within the control period according to the wind power generation power and photovoltaic power generation power of each aggregated power grid in each time period within the control period includes:

[0037] The power loss P of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period during the control period is determined by the following formula: c,r (t,n):

[0038]

[0039] Where C w To control the installed capacity of wind turbines in the renewable energy generators in the power grid during the period, C pv In order to control the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation units in the new energy power generation units in the power grid during the period, is the normalized upper limit of wind power generation in the nth aggregated grid during the control period at the tth period, is the normalized upper limit of photovoltaic power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period within the control period, P w (t,n) is the wind power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period during the control period, P pv (t,n) is the photovoltaic power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth time period during the control period.

[0040] Preferably, determining the amount of abandoned renewable energy power that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period according to the abandoned power of the renewable energy power generation units in the power grid during the control period includes:

[0041] The amount of renewable energy abandoned power Q that the grid needs to recover during the control period is determined by the following formula: e :

[0042] Q e =P c,r -C w ·H w ·R w -C pv ·H pv ·R pv

[0043] Where, P c,rTo control the amount of power wasted in the power grid during the period, H w is the historical average of wind power generation, R w is the control index of wind power curtailment rate, H pv is the average value of historical photovoltaic power generation, R pv is the control index of photovoltaic power generation abandonment rate, C w To control the installed capacity of wind turbines in the renewable energy generators in the power grid during the period, C pv To control the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation units among the new energy power generation units in the power grid during the period;

[0044] The amount of power lost during the control period, P, is determined by the following formula: c,r :

[0045]

[0046] Where, P c,r (t,n) is the power curtailment of the nth aggregated grid in the tth time period during the control period, t∈(1~T), T is the total number of time periods in the control period, n∈(1~G), G is the total number of aggregated grids.

[0047] Furthermore, determining the peak load regulation demand of the power grid according to the amount of abandoned renewable energy that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period includes:

[0048] If the amount of renewable energy abandoned power that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period is not greater than zero, the peak-shaving demand of the power grid is 0; otherwise, the cumulative distribution function value of the amount of renewable energy abandoned power that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period is set to be equal to the ratio of the amount of renewable energy abandoned power that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period to the amount of abandoned power of the power grid during the control period, and the cumulative distribution function of the amount of abandoned power of the power grid during the control period is solved, and the solved value of the cumulative distribution function of the amount of abandoned power of the power grid during the control period is used as the peak-shaving demand of the power grid.

[0049] Furthermore, the method of determining the cumulative distribution function of the power grid abandoned within the control period according to the abandoned power of each aggregated power grid in each time period within the control period includes:

[0050] The cumulative distribution function F(x') of the power grid's abandoned electricity during the control period is determined as follows:

[0051]

[0052] Where, f c,r (x) is the discrete probability distribution function of the power curtailment of the power grid during the control period, x is the power curtailment, and x' is the value of any x in the discrete probability distribution function of the power curtailment of the power grid during the control period;

[0053] If the total number of aggregated power grids in the power grid G ​​= 1, the discrete probability distribution function f of the power abandonment power of the power grid during the control period is determined as follows:c,r (x):

[0054]

[0055] If the total number of aggregated power grids in the power grid G≠1, the discrete probability distribution function f of the power abandonment power of the power grid during the control period is determined as follows: c,r (x):

[0056]

[0057] Where, is the discrete probability distribution function of the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid in the grid, n∈(1~G), G is the total number of aggregated grids, and ⊕ is the convolution symbol;

[0058] The discrete probability distribution function of the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid in the grid is determined as follows:

[0059]

[0060] Where n c,r,x is the number of time periods during the control period when the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid falls within the curtailed power interval of x, and T is the total number of time periods during the control period;

[0061] The method of dividing the power range of abandoned power is as follows: using the preset discretization factor The power loss of the nth aggregated grid in the grid is divided into N c,r,s intervals, is the maximum value of the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid during the control period, is the minimum value of the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid within the control period, and INT is the rounding symbol.

[0062] The present invention provides a power grid peak load demand calculation system, which is improved in that it includes:

[0063] A first determining module is used to determine the installed capacity of the new energy generator set in the power grid within the control period according to the predicted load of the power grid within the control period;

[0064] The second determining module is used to determine the abandoned power of the new energy generator set in the power grid within the control period according to the installed capacity of the new energy generator set in the power grid within the control period;

[0065] The third determination module is used to determine the amount of abandoned renewable energy power that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period according to the abandoned power of the renewable energy generator set in the power grid during the control period;

[0066] The fourth determination module is used to determine the peak-shaving demand of the power grid according to the amount of abandoned renewable energy that needs to be recovered by the power grid within the control period.

[0067] Compared with the closest prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0068] The technical solution provided by the present invention determines the installed capacity of the new energy generator sets in the power grid within the control period according to the predicted load of the power grid within the control period; determines the abandoned power of the new energy generator sets in the power grid within the control period according to the installed capacity of the new energy generator sets in the power grid within the control period; determines the amount of abandoned new energy power that needs to be recovered by the power grid within the control period according to the abandoned power of the new energy generator sets in the power grid within the control period; and determines the peak-shaving demand of the power grid according to the amount of abandoned new energy power that needs to be recovered by the power grid within the control period, thereby more accurately calculating the peak-shaving demand of the power grid with the participation of new energy power generation, and providing technical guidance for capacity planning for flexible transformation of thermal power units. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0069] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a method for calculating peak load demand of power grid;

[0070] Figure 2 It is a structural diagram of a power grid peak-shaving demand calculation system. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0071] The specific embodiments of the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0072] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention more clear, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings of the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative efforts shall fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0073] The present invention provides a method for calculating the peak load demand of a power grid. Figure 1 As shown, including:

[0074] Step 101. Determine the installed capacity of the new energy generator set in the power grid within the control period according to the predicted load of the power grid within the control period;

[0075] Step 102: Determine the abandoned power of the renewable energy generators in the power grid during the control period based on the installed capacity of the renewable energy generators in the power grid during the control period.

[0076] Step 103: Determine the amount of abandoned renewable energy power that needs to be recovered by the grid during the control period based on the abandoned power of the renewable energy generators in the grid during the control period.

[0077] Step 104: Determine the peak load regulation demand of the power grid according to the abandoned renewable energy power that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period.

[0078] Preferably, the new energy generator set includes a wind generator set and a photovoltaic generator set; the step 101 includes:

[0079] Determine the installed capacity C of the wind turbine generator set in the new energy generator set in the power grid during the control period by the following formula: w :

[0080]

[0081] Determine the installed capacity C of the photovoltaic generator set in the new energy generator set in the power grid during the control period by the following formula: pv :

[0082]

[0083] Where λ w is the installed capacity ratio of wind turbines in the power grid, λ pv is the installed capacity ratio of photovoltaic generators in the power grid, Q L is the predicted load of the power grid during the control period, R n is the control index of the curtailment rate of renewable energy power generation, H w is the historical average of wind power generation, R w is the control index of wind power curtailment rate, H pv is the average value of historical photovoltaic power generation, R pv It is a control indicator for the photovoltaic power generation curtailment rate.

[0084] Among them, step 1 calculates the new energy installed capacity that meets the new energy power generation ratio and power abandonment rate control indicators. The specific new energy power generation ratio and power abandonment rate control indicators are pre-set according to actual operating conditions.

[0085] In the best embodiment of the present invention, the average value of historical wind power and photovoltaic power generation is selected from the average value of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in each hour in the past 30 years.

[0086] Furthermore, the step 102 includes:

[0087] Step a. Substitute the installed capacity of the new energy generators in the power grid during the control period into the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model to obtain the wind power and photovoltaic power generation power of each aggregated power grid in each period during the control period;

[0088] Step b. determining the abandoned power of each aggregated power grid in each time period within the control period according to the wind power generation power and photovoltaic power generation power of each aggregated power grid in each time period within the control period.

[0089] Specifically, the objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined according to the following formula:

[0090]

[0091] Where F is the power generated by renewable energy in the power grid during the control period, P w (t,n) is the wind power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period during the control period, P pv (t,n) is the photovoltaic power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth time period during the control period, t∈(1~T), T is the total number of time periods in the control period, n∈(1~G), G is the total number of aggregated grids;

[0092] The new energy power generation output constraint condition of the objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined as follows:

[0093]

[0094] Where C w To control the installed capacity of wind turbines in the renewable energy generators in the power grid during the period, C pv In order to control the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation units in the new energy power generation units in the power grid during the period, is the normalized upper limit of wind power generation in the nth aggregated grid during the control period at the tth period, is the normalized upper limit of photovoltaic power generation of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period within the control period;

[0095] The regional load balance constraint condition of the objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined as follows:

[0096]

[0097] Where, P c (t,n) is the power generation of other power generation equipment in the nth aggregated grid in the tth period within the control period, △L i (t,n) is the power of the ith tie line of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period within the control period, P l (t,n) is the predicted load of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period within the control period, i∈(1~Q), Q is the total number of tie lines;

[0098] The inter-regional line transmission capacity constraint condition of the objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined as follows:

[0099] -L i,max ≤L i (t,n)≤Li,max

[0100] Where, L i,max is the maximum power of the i-th tie line;

[0101] The unit power ramp rate constraint condition of the objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined as follows:

[0102]

[0103] Where, P c (t+1,n) is the power generation of other power generation equipment in the nth aggregated power grid in the t+1th period within the control period, △P c,up (n) is the ramp rate of other power generation equipment in the nth aggregated grid during the control period, △P c,down (n) is the ramp-down rate of other power generation equipment in the nth aggregated grid during the control period.

[0104] Specifically, the step b includes:

[0105] The power loss P of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period during the control period is determined by the following formula: c,r (t,n):

[0106]

[0107] Where C w To control the installed capacity of wind turbines in the renewable energy generators in the power grid during the period, C pv In order to control the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation units in the new energy power generation units in the power grid during the period, is the normalized upper limit of wind power generation in the nth aggregated grid during the control period at the tth period, is the normalized upper limit of photovoltaic power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period within the control period, P w (t,n) is the wind power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period during the control period, P pv (t,n) is the photovoltaic power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth time period during the control period.

[0108] Furthermore, the step 103 includes:

[0109] The amount of renewable energy abandoned power Q that the grid needs to recover during the control period is determined by the following formula: e :

[0110] Q e =P c,r -C w ·H w ·R w-C pv ·H pv ·R pv

[0111] Where, P c,r To control the amount of power wasted in the power grid during the period, H w is the historical average of wind power generation, R w is the control index of wind power curtailment rate, H pv is the average value of historical photovoltaic power generation, R pv is the control index of photovoltaic power generation abandonment rate, C w To control the installed capacity of wind turbines in the renewable energy generators in the power grid during the period, C pv To control the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation units among the new energy power generation units in the power grid within the period;

[0112] The amount of power lost during the control period, P, is determined by the following formula: c,r :

[0113]

[0114] Where, P c,r (t,n) is the power curtailment of the nth aggregated grid in the tth time period during the control period, t∈(1~T), T is the total number of time periods in the control period, n∈(1~G), G is the total number of aggregated grids.

[0115] Furthermore, the step 104 includes:

[0116] If the amount of renewable energy abandoned power that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period is not greater than zero, the peak-shaving demand of the power grid is 0; otherwise, the cumulative distribution function value of the amount of renewable energy abandoned power that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period is set to be equal to the ratio of the amount of renewable energy abandoned power that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period to the amount of abandoned power of the power grid during the control period, and the cumulative distribution function of the amount of abandoned power of the power grid during the control period is solved, and the solved value of the cumulative distribution function of the amount of abandoned power of the power grid during the control period is used as the peak-shaving demand of the power grid.

[0117] Specifically, determining the cumulative distribution function of the amount of power abandoned in the control period according to the abandoned power of each aggregated power grid in each time period in the control period includes:

[0118] The cumulative distribution function F(x') of the power grid's abandoned electricity during the control period is determined as follows:

[0119]

[0120] Where, f c,r (x) is the discrete probability distribution function of the power curtailment of the power grid during the control period, x is the power curtailment, and x' is the value of any x in the discrete probability distribution function of the power curtailment of the power grid during the control period;

[0121] If the total number of aggregated power grids in the power grid G ​​= 1, the discrete probability distribution function f of the power abandonment power of the power grid during the control period is determined as follows: c,r (x):

[0122]

[0123] If the total number of aggregated power grids in the power grid G≠1, the discrete probability distribution function f of the power abandonment power of the power grid during the control period is determined as follows: c,r (x):

[0124]

[0125] Where, is the discrete probability distribution function of the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid in the grid, n∈(1~G), G is the total number of aggregated grids, and ⊕ is the convolution symbol;

[0126] The discrete probability distribution function of the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid in the grid is determined as follows:

[0127]

[0128] Where n c,r,x is the number of time periods during the control period when the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid falls within the curtailed power interval of x, and T is the total number of time periods during the control period;

[0129] The method of dividing the power range of abandoned power is as follows: using the preset discretization factor The power loss of the nth aggregated grid in the grid is divided into N c,r,s intervals, is the maximum value of the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid during the control period, is the minimum value of the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid within the control period, and INT is the rounding symbol.

[0130] In the preferred embodiment of the present invention, let b be the integer closest to the maximum value of the power abandonment of the nth aggregated grid during the control period, and a be the integer closest to the minimum value of the power abandonment of the nth aggregated grid during the control period, then the interval [a, b] is discretized by a preset factor. is the step size, divided into N c,r,s intervals.

[0131] The technical solution provided by the present invention can ensure that the new energy power abandonment rate reaches the power abandonment control index while minimizing the new power grid peak regulation demand, and can achieve the lowest cost for flexible transformation of thermal power units.

[0132] The present invention provides a power grid peak load demand calculation system, such as Figure 2 As shown, including:

[0133] A first determining module is used to determine the installed capacity of the new energy generator set in the power grid within the control period according to the predicted load of the power grid within the control period;

[0134] The second determining module is used to determine the abandoned power of the new energy generator set in the power grid within the control period according to the installed capacity of the new energy generator set in the power grid within the control period;

[0135] The third determination module is used to determine the amount of abandoned renewable energy power that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period according to the abandoned power of the renewable energy generator set in the power grid during the control period;

[0136] The fourth determination module is used to determine the peak-shaving demand of the power grid according to the amount of abandoned renewable energy that needs to be recovered by the power grid within the control period.

[0137] Preferably, the new energy generator set includes a wind generator set and a photovoltaic generator set; the first determining module is used to:

[0138] Determine the installed capacity C of the wind turbine generator set in the new energy generator set in the power grid during the control period by the following formula: w :

[0139]

[0140] Determine the installed capacity C of the photovoltaic generator set in the new energy generator set in the power grid during the control period by the following formula: pv :

[0141]

[0142] Where λ w is the installed capacity ratio of wind turbines in the power grid, λ pv is the installed capacity ratio of photovoltaic generators in the power grid, Q L is the predicted load of the power grid during the control period, R n is the control index of the curtailment rate of renewable energy power generation, H w is the historical average of wind power generation, R w is the control index of wind power curtailment rate, H pv is the average value of historical photovoltaic power generation, R pv It is a control indicator for the photovoltaic power generation curtailment rate.

[0143] Furthermore, the second determining module includes:

[0144] The substitution unit is used to substitute the installed capacity of the renewable energy generator sets in the power grid during the control period into the pre-built renewable energy consumption simulation model to obtain the wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation of each aggregated power grid in each time period during the control period;

[0145] The first determining unit is configured to determine the abandoned power of each aggregated power grid in each time period within the control period according to the wind power generation power and photovoltaic power generation power of each aggregated power grid in each time period within the control period.

[0146] Specifically, the objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined according to the following formula:

[0147]

[0148] Where F is the power generated by renewable energy in the power grid during the control period, P w (t,n) is the wind power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period during the control period, P pv (t,n) is the photovoltaic power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth time period during the control period, t∈(1~T), T is the total number of time periods in the control period, n∈(1~G), G is the total number of aggregated grids;

[0149] The new energy power generation output constraint condition of the objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined as follows:

[0150]

[0151] Where C w To control the installed capacity of wind turbines in the renewable energy generators in the power grid during the period, C pv In order to control the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation units in the new energy power generation units in the power grid during the period, is the normalized upper limit of wind power generation in the nth aggregated grid during the control period at the tth period, is the normalized upper limit of photovoltaic power generation of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period within the control period;

[0152] The regional load balance constraint condition of the objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined as follows:

[0153]

[0154] Where, P c (t,n) is the power generation of other power generation equipment in the nth aggregated grid in the tth period within the control period, △L i (t,n) is the power of the ith tie line of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period within the control period, P l(t,n) is the predicted load of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period within the control period, i∈(1~Q), Q is the total number of tie lines;

[0155] The inter-regional line transmission capacity constraint condition of the objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined as follows:

[0156] -L i,max ≤L i (t,n)≤L i,max

[0157] Where, L i,max is the maximum power of the i-th tie line;

[0158] The unit power ramp rate constraint condition of the objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined as follows:

[0159]

[0160] Where, P c (t+1,n) is the power generation of other power generation equipment in the nth aggregated power grid in the t+1th period within the control period, △P c,up (n) is the ramp rate of other power generation equipment in the nth aggregated grid during the control period, △P c,down (n) is the ramp-down rate of other power generation equipment in the nth aggregated grid during the control period.

[0161] Specifically, the first determining unit is configured to:

[0162] The power loss P of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period during the control period is determined by the following formula: c,r (t,n):

[0163]

[0164] Where C w To control the installed capacity of wind turbines in the renewable energy generators in the power grid during the period, C pv In order to control the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation units in the new energy power generation units in the power grid during the period, is the normalized upper limit of wind power generation in the nth aggregated grid during the control period at the tth period, is the normalized upper limit of photovoltaic power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period within the control period, P w (t,n) is the wind power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period during the control period, P pv (t,n) is the photovoltaic power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth time period during the control period.

[0165] Furthermore, the third determining module is configured to:

[0166] The amount of renewable energy abandoned power Q that the grid needs to recover during the control period is determined by the following formula: e :

[0167] Q e =P c,r -C w ·H w ·R w -C pv ·H pv ·R pv

[0168] Where, P c,r To control the amount of power wasted in the power grid during the period, H w is the historical average of wind power generation, R w is the control index of wind power curtailment rate, H pv is the average value of historical photovoltaic power generation, R pv is the control index of photovoltaic power generation abandonment rate, C w To control the installed capacity of wind turbines in the renewable energy generators in the power grid during the period, C pv To control the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation units among the new energy power generation units in the power grid within the period;

[0169] The amount of power lost during the control period, P, is determined by the following formula: c,r :

[0170]

[0171] Where, P c,r (t,n) is the power curtailment of the nth aggregated grid in the tth time period during the control period, t∈(1~T), T is the total number of time periods in the control period, n∈(1~G), G is the total number of aggregated grids.

[0172] Furthermore, the fourth determining module is used to

[0173] If the amount of renewable energy abandoned power that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period is not greater than zero, the peak-shaving demand of the power grid is 0; otherwise, the cumulative distribution function value of the amount of renewable energy abandoned power that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period is set to be equal to the ratio of the amount of renewable energy abandoned power that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period to the amount of abandoned power of the power grid during the control period, and the cumulative distribution function of the amount of abandoned power of the power grid during the control period is solved, and the solved value of the cumulative distribution function of the amount of abandoned power of the power grid during the control period is used as the peak-shaving demand of the power grid.

[0174] Specifically, determining the cumulative distribution function of the amount of power abandoned in the control period according to the abandoned power of each aggregated power grid in each time period in the control period includes:

[0175] The cumulative distribution function F(x') of the power grid's abandoned electricity during the control period is determined as follows:

[0176]

[0177] Where, f c,r (x) is the discrete probability distribution function of the power curtailment of the power grid during the control period, x is the power curtailment, and x' is the value of any x in the discrete probability distribution function of the power curtailment of the power grid during the control period;

[0178] If the total number of aggregated power grids in the power grid G ​​= 1, the discrete probability distribution function f of the power abandonment power of the power grid during the control period is determined as follows: c,r (x):

[0179]

[0180] If the total number of aggregated power grids in the power grid G≠1, the discrete probability distribution function f of the power abandonment power of the power grid during the control period is determined as follows: c,r (x):

[0181]

[0182] Where, is the discrete probability distribution function of the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid in the grid, n∈(1~G), G is the total number of aggregated grids, and ⊕ is the convolution symbol;

[0183] The discrete probability distribution function of the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid in the grid is determined as follows:

[0184]

[0185] Where n c,r,x is the number of time periods during the control period when the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid falls within the curtailed power interval of x, and T is the total number of time periods during the control period;

[0186] The method of dividing the power range of abandoned power is as follows: using the preset discretization factor The power loss of the nth aggregated grid in the grid is divided into N c,r,s intervals, is the maximum value of the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid during the control period, is the minimum value of the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid within the control period, and INT is the rounding symbol.

[0187] This invention provides a method for calculating power grid peak-shaving demand. This method uses the renewable energy generation ratio and curtailment rate control targets as constraints, and calculates renewable energy generation and curtailment moment by moment based on the current power system operating boundary conditions. The method then calculates the discrete probability distribution of the calculated renewable energy curtailment sequence, thereby obtaining a cumulative probability distribution function for the curtailment of renewable energy. Furthermore, the curtailment of renewable energy that needs to be recovered is calculated based on the renewable energy curtailment rate control target, and combined with the cumulative probability distribution function of the curtailment of renewable energy, the peak-shaving capacity demand of the power system is calculated. The calculation results of this invention can be used to guide capacity planning for the flexibility transformation of thermal power units.

[0188] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the embodiments of the present application can be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present application can adopt the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment in combination with software and hardware. Moreover, the present application can adopt the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to magnetic disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) that contain computer-usable program code.

[0189] The present application is described with reference to the flowcharts and / or block diagrams of the methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to the embodiments of the present application. It should be understood that each process and / or box in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of the processes and / or boxes in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to produce a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the steps in the process. Figure 1 a process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0190] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to work in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 a process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The function specified in one or more boxes.

[0191] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operational steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing the instructions executed on the computer or other programmable device for implementing the process. Figure 1 a process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A step that specifies a function in one or more boxes.

[0192] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention and not to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, ordinary technicians in the field should understand that the specific implementation methods of the present invention can still be modified or replaced by equivalents. Any modification or equivalent replacement that does not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be covered by the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for calculating peak load demand of a power grid, characterized in that: include: Determine the installed capacity of the new energy generator sets in the power grid within the control period according to the predicted load of the power grid within the control period; Determine the abandoned power of the renewable energy generator sets in the power grid during the control period according to the installed capacity of the renewable energy generator sets in the power grid during the control period; Determine the amount of abandoned renewable energy power that needs to be recovered by the grid during the control period based on the abandoned power of renewable energy generators in the grid during the control period; Determine the peak load regulation demand of the power grid based on the amount of abandoned renewable energy that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period; The step of determining the abandoned power of the renewable energy generator sets in the power grid within the control period according to the installed capacity of the renewable energy generator sets in the power grid within the control period includes: Substitute the installed capacity of renewable energy generators in the power grid during the control period into the pre-built renewable energy consumption simulation model to obtain the wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation of each aggregated power grid in each time period during the control period; Determine the abandoned power of each aggregated grid in each time period within the control period according to the wind power generation power and photovoltaic power generation power of each aggregated grid in each time period within the control period; The objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined as follows: Where F is the power generated by renewable energy in the power grid during the control period, P w (t,n) is the wind power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period during the control period, P pv (t,n) is the photovoltaic power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth time period during the control period, t∈(1~T), T is the total number of time periods in the control period, n∈(1~G), G is the total number of aggregated grids; The new energy power generation output constraint condition of the objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined as follows: Where C w To control the installed capacity of wind turbines in the renewable energy generators in the power grid during the period, C pv In order to control the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation units in the new energy power generation units in the power grid during the period, is the normalized upper limit of wind power generation in the nth aggregated grid during the control period at the tth period, is the normalized upper limit of photovoltaic power generation of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period within the control period; The regional load balance constraint condition of the objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined as follows: Where, P c (t,n) is the power generation of other power generation equipment in the nth aggregated power grid in the tth period during the control period, L i (t,n) is the power of the ith tie line of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period within the control period, P l (t,n) is the predicted load of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period within the control period, i∈(1~Q), Q is the total number of tie lines; The inter-regional line transmission capacity constraint condition of the objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined as follows: -L i,max ≤L i (t,n)≤L i,max Where, L i,max is the maximum power of the i-th tie line; The unit power ramp rate constraint condition of the objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined as follows: Where, P c (t+1,n) is the power generation of other power generation equipment in the nth aggregated grid in the t+1th period within the control period, ΔP c,up (n) is the ramp rate of other power generation equipment in the nth aggregated grid during the control period, ΔP c,down (n) is the ramp-down rate of other power generation equipment in the nth aggregated grid during the control period.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein The new energy generator set includes a wind generator set and a photovoltaic generator set; The method of determining the installed capacity of the new energy generator set in the power grid within the control period according to the predicted load of the power grid within the control period includes: Determine the installed capacity C of the wind turbine generator set in the new energy generator set in the power grid during the control period by the following formula: w : Determine the installed capacity C of the photovoltaic generator set in the new energy generator set in the power grid during the control period by the following formula: pv : Where λ w is the installed capacity ratio of wind turbines in the power grid, λ pv is the installed capacity ratio of photovoltaic generators in the power grid, Q L is the predicted load of the power grid during the control period, R n is the control index of the curtailment rate of renewable energy power generation, H w is the historical average of wind power generation, R w is the control index of wind power curtailment rate, H pv is the average value of historical photovoltaic power generation, R pv It is a control indicator for the photovoltaic power generation curtailment rate.

3. The method according to claim 1, wherein Determining the abandoned power of each aggregated power grid in each time period within the control period according to the wind power generation power and photovoltaic power generation power of each aggregated power grid in each time period within the control period includes: The power loss P of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period during the control period is determined by the following formula: c,r (t,n): Where C w To control the installed capacity of wind turbines in the renewable energy generators in the power grid during the period, C pv In order to control the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation units in the new energy power generation units in the power grid during the period, is the normalized upper limit of wind power generation in the nth aggregated grid during the control period at the tth period, is the normalized upper limit of photovoltaic power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period within the control period, P w (t,n) is the wind power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period during the control period, P pv (t,n) is the photovoltaic power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth time period during the control period.

4. The method according to claim 1, wherein The method of determining the amount of abandoned renewable energy power that needs to be recovered by the power grid within the control period according to the abandoned power of the renewable energy generator sets in the power grid within the control period includes: The amount of renewable energy abandoned power Q that the grid needs to recover during the control period is determined by the following formula: e : Q e =P c,r -C w ·H w ·R w -C pv ·H pv ·R pv Where, P c,r To control the amount of power wasted in the power grid during the period, H w is the historical average of wind power generation, R w is the control index of wind power curtailment rate, H pv is the average value of historical photovoltaic power generation, R pv is the control index of photovoltaic power generation abandonment rate, C w To control the installed capacity of wind turbines in the renewable energy generators in the power grid during the period, C pv To control the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation units among the new energy power generation units in the power grid within the period; The amount of power lost during the control period, P, is determined by the following formula: c,r : Where, P c,r (t,n) is the power curtailment of the nth aggregated grid in the tth time period during the control period, t∈(1~T), T is the total number of time periods in the control period, n∈(1~G), G is the total number of aggregated grids.

5. The method according to claim 1, wherein Determining the peak load regulation demand of the power grid according to the amount of abandoned renewable energy that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period includes: If the amount of renewable energy abandoned power that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period is not greater than zero, the peak-shaving demand of the power grid is 0; otherwise, the cumulative distribution function value of the amount of renewable energy abandoned power that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period is set to be equal to the ratio of the amount of renewable energy abandoned power that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period to the amount of abandoned power of the power grid during the control period, and the cumulative distribution function of the amount of abandoned power of the power grid during the control period is solved, and the solved value of the cumulative distribution function of the amount of abandoned power of the power grid during the control period is used as the peak-shaving demand of the power grid.

6. The method according to claim 5, wherein The cumulative distribution function F(x') of the power grid's abandoned electricity during the control period is determined as follows: Where, f c,r (x) is the discrete probability distribution function of the power curtailment of the power grid during the control period, x is the power curtailment, and x' is the value of any x in the discrete probability distribution function of the power curtailment of the power grid during the control period; If the total number of aggregated power grids in the power grid G ​​= 1, the discrete probability distribution function f of the power abandonment power of the power grid during the control period is determined as follows: c,r (x): If the total number of aggregated power grids in the power grid G≠1, the discrete probability distribution function f of the power abandonment power of the power grid during the control period is determined as follows: c,r (x): Where, is the discrete probability distribution function of the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid in the grid, n∈(1~G), G is the total number of aggregated grids, and ⊕ is the convolution symbol; The discrete probability distribution function of the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid in the grid is determined as follows: Where n c,r,x is the number of time periods during the control period when the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid falls within the curtailed power interval of x, and T is the total number of time periods during the control period; The method of dividing the power range of abandoned power is as follows: using the preset discretization factor The power loss of the nth aggregated grid in the grid is divided into N c,r,s intervals, is the maximum value of the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid during the control period, is the minimum value of the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid within the control period, and INT is the rounding symbol.

7. A power grid peak load demand calculation system, characterized in that: include: A first determining module is used to determine the installed capacity of the new energy generator set in the power grid within the control period according to the predicted load of the power grid within the control period; The second determining module is used to determine the abandoned power of the new energy generator set in the power grid within the control period according to the installed capacity of the new energy generator set in the power grid within the control period; The third determination module is used to determine the amount of abandoned renewable energy power that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period according to the abandoned power of the renewable energy generator set in the power grid during the control period; The fourth determination module is used to determine the peak load demand of the power grid according to the amount of abandoned renewable energy that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period; The second determining module includes: The substitution unit is used to substitute the installed capacity of the renewable energy generator sets in the power grid during the control period into the pre-built renewable energy consumption simulation model to obtain the wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation of each aggregated power grid in each time period during the control period; A first determining unit is configured to determine the abandoned power of each aggregated power grid in each time period within the control period according to the wind power generation power and photovoltaic power generation power of each aggregated power grid in each time period within the control period; The objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined as follows: Where F is the power generated by renewable energy in the power grid during the control period, P w (t,n) is the wind power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period during the control period, P pv (t,n) is the photovoltaic power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth time period during the control period, t∈(1~T), T is the total number of time periods in the control period, n∈(1~G), G is the total number of aggregated grids; The new energy power generation output constraint condition of the objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined as follows: Where C w To control the installed capacity of wind turbines in the renewable energy generators in the power grid during the period, C pv In order to control the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation units in the new energy power generation units in the power grid during the period, is the normalized upper limit of wind power generation in the nth aggregated grid during the control period at the tth period, is the normalized upper limit of photovoltaic power generation of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period within the control period; The regional load balance constraint condition of the objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined as follows: Where, P c (t,n) is the power generation of other power generation equipment in the nth aggregated power grid in the tth period during the control period, L i (t,n) is the power of the ith tie line of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period within the control period, P l (t,n) is the predicted load of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period within the control period, i∈(1~Q), Q is the total number of tie lines; The inter-regional line transmission capacity constraint condition of the objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined as follows: -L i,max ≤L i (t,n)≤L i,max Where, L i,max is the maximum power of the i-th tie line; The unit power ramp rate constraint condition of the objective function of the pre-built new energy consumption simulation model is determined as follows: Where, P c (t+1,n) is the power generation of other power generation equipment in the nth aggregated grid in the t+1th period within the control period, ΔP c,up (n) is the ramp rate of other power generation equipment in the nth aggregated grid during the control period, ΔP c,down (n) is the ramp-down rate of other power generation equipment in the nth aggregated grid during the control period.

8. The system according to claim 7, wherein: The new energy generator set includes a wind generator set and a photovoltaic generator set; the first determination module is used to: Determine the installed capacity C of the wind turbine generator set in the new energy generator set in the power grid during the control period by the following formula: w : Determine the installed capacity C of the photovoltaic generator set in the new energy generator set in the power grid during the control period by the following formula: pv : Where λ w is the installed capacity ratio of wind turbines in the power grid, λ pv is the installed capacity ratio of photovoltaic generators in the power grid, Q L is the predicted load of the power grid during the control period, R n is the control index of the curtailment rate of renewable energy power generation, H w is the historical average of wind power generation, R w is the control index of wind power curtailment rate, H pv is the average value of historical photovoltaic power generation, R pv It is a control indicator for the photovoltaic power generation curtailment rate.

9. The system according to claim 7, wherein: The first determining unit is configured to: The power loss P of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period during the control period is determined by the following formula: c,r (t,n): Where C w To control the installed capacity of wind turbines in the renewable energy generators in the power grid during the period, C pv In order to control the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation units in the new energy power generation units in the power grid during the period, is the normalized upper limit of wind power generation in the nth aggregated grid during the control period at the tth period, is the normalized upper limit of photovoltaic power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period within the control period, P w (t,n) is the wind power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth period during the control period, P pv (t,n) is the photovoltaic power generation power of the nth aggregated grid in the tth time period during the control period.

10. The system according to claim 7, wherein: The third determining module is configured to: The amount of renewable energy abandoned power Q that the grid needs to recover during the control period is determined by the following formula: e : Q e =P c,r -C w ·H w ·R w -C pv ·H pv ·R pv Where, P c,r To control the amount of power wasted in the power grid during the period, H w is the historical average of wind power generation, R w is the control index of wind power curtailment rate, H pv is the average value of historical photovoltaic power generation, R pv is the control index of photovoltaic power generation abandonment rate, C w To control the installed capacity of wind turbines in the renewable energy generators in the power grid during the period, C pv To control the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation units among the new energy power generation units in the power grid within the period; The amount of power lost during the control period, P, is determined by the following formula: c,r : Where, P c,r (t,n) is the power curtailment of the nth aggregated grid in the tth time period during the control period, t∈(1~T), T is the total number of time periods in the control period, n∈(1~G), G is the total number of aggregated grids.

11. The system according to claim 7, wherein: The fourth determining module is configured to: If the amount of renewable energy abandoned power that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period is not greater than zero, the peak-shaving demand of the power grid is 0; otherwise, the cumulative distribution function value of the amount of renewable energy abandoned power that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period is set to be equal to the ratio of the amount of renewable energy abandoned power that needs to be recovered by the power grid during the control period to the amount of abandoned power of the power grid during the control period, and the cumulative distribution function of the amount of abandoned power of the power grid during the control period is solved, and the solved value of the cumulative distribution function of the amount of abandoned power of the power grid during the control period is used as the peak-shaving demand of the power grid.

12. The system according to claim 11, wherein Determining the cumulative distribution function of the amount of power abandoned in the control period according to the abandoned power of each aggregated power grid in each time period in the control period includes: The cumulative distribution function F(x') of the power grid's abandoned electricity during the control period is determined as follows: Where, f c,r (x) is the discrete probability distribution function of the power curtailment of the power grid during the control period, x is the power curtailment, and x' is the value of any x in the discrete probability distribution function of the power curtailment of the power grid during the control period; If the total number of aggregated power grids in the power grid G ​​= 1, the discrete probability distribution function f of the power abandonment power of the power grid during the control period is determined as follows: c,r (x): If the total number of aggregated power grids in the power grid G≠1, the discrete probability distribution function f of the power abandonment power of the power grid during the control period is determined as follows: c,r (x): Where, is the discrete probability distribution function of the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid in the grid, n∈(1~G), G is the total number of aggregated grids, and ⊕ is the convolution symbol; The discrete probability distribution function of the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid in the grid is determined as follows: Where n c,r,x is the number of time periods during the control period when the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid falls within the curtailed power interval of x, and T is the total number of time periods during the control period; The method of dividing the power range of abandoned power is as follows: using the preset discretization factor The power loss of the nth aggregated grid in the grid is divided into N c,r,s intervals, is the maximum value of the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid during the control period, is the minimum value of the curtailed power of the nth aggregated grid within the control period, and INT is the rounding symbol.

Images