A method and system for quantifying the risk probability of backup capacity loss in power systems

Abstract

The present invention relates to a method and system for quantifying the probability of risk of loss of reserve capacity in an electric power system, comprising: determining the positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient of the electric power system for each electric power system simulation scenario based on the output plan of conventional units in each electric power system simulation scenario; determining the number of electric power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risk based on the positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient of the electric power system for each electric power system simulation scenario; and quantifying the positive / negative reserve capacity loss risk probability of the electric power system based on the number of electric power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risk. The present invention determines the positive / negative reserve capacity loss risk probability of the electric power system based on a large number of electric power system operation scenarios, takes wind / solar output uncertainty into account in the probability of risk of loss of reserve capacity, more accurately depicts the risk brought by wind / solar output uncertainty to the operation of the electric power system, improves the system's ability to predict risks, and ensures the safe operation of the power grid.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of renewable energy power generation, and in particular to a method and system for quantifying the risk probability of loss of backup capacity of a power system. Background Art

[0002] In recent years, as wind and solar power generation have become the primary form of power generation in power systems, wind and solar power forecasts have been incorporated into power balance scheduling. However, this scheduling fails to account for the uncertainty of wind and solar power output. Furthermore, in some regions, due to large wind and solar power forecast errors, scheduling plans are based on extreme scenarios, resulting in the coexistence of power shortage risks and wind and solar power curtailment.

[0003] The existing wind / solar short-term power forecasting technology has reached a bottleneck in improving forecast accuracy. It is difficult to accurately characterize the operational risks brought to the power system by the uncertainty of wind / solar output, and thus it is impossible to coordinate the formulation of dispatching plans to guide the operational risks of the power system, resulting in the inability to guarantee the safe operation of the power system. Summary of the Invention

[0004] In response to the shortcomings of the existing technology, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a method and system for quantifying the probability of risk of loss of reserve capacity in a power system. Based on a large number of power system operation scenarios, the positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient and the positive / negative reserve capacity loss risk probability of the power system are determined under each power system operation scenario, and the uncertainty of wind / solar output is taken into account in the risk probability of loss of reserve capacity, thereby improving the power system's ability to predict risks and ensuring the safe operation of the power grid.

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is achieved by adopting the following technical solutions:

[0006] The present invention provides a method for quantifying the probability of risk of loss of reserve capacity of a power system, wherein the method comprises:

[0007] Determine the power system positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient for each power system simulation scenario based on the conventional unit output plan in each power system simulation scenario;

[0008] Determine the number of power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risks based on the power system positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient of each power system simulation scenario;

[0009] The probability of positive / negative reserve capacity loss risk of the power system is quantified based on power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risk.

[0010] Preferably, the determining of the power system positive / negative reserve capacity missing coefficient of each power system simulation scenario based on the conventional unit output plan in each power system simulation scenario includes:

[0011] Determine the positive reserve capacity loss coefficient of the power system at time t under the power system simulation scenario s according to the following formula:

[0012]

[0013] Determine the negative reserve capacity missing coefficient of the power system at time t under the power system simulation scenario s according to the following formula:

[0014]

[0015] In the above formula, P max,t is the maximum output plan of the conventional unit started at time t, P min,t is the minimum output plan of the conventional machine started at time t, P t RE,s is the predicted value of renewable energy output corresponding to time t under the power system simulation scenario s, al in,t is the net power received by the inter-provincial tie lines at time t, PD t is the load forecast data at time t, s∈S, and S is the total number of power system simulation scenarios.

[0016] Preferably, the determining the number of power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risk based on the power system positive / negative spare capacity loss coefficient of each power system simulation scenario includes:

[0017] Determine whether there is a positive / negative reserve capacity loss risk in the power system simulation scenario based on the positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient of the power system in each power system simulation scenario;

[0018] Count power system simulation scenarios with the risk of missing positive / negative reserve capacity;

[0019] The number of power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risk is determined based on the total value of the count.

[0020] Furthermore, judging whether there is a positive / negative reserve capacity loss risk in the power system simulation scenario based on the positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient of the power system in each power system simulation scenario includes:

[0021] If the power system positive / negative reserve capacity missing coefficient of the power system simulation scenario s is greater than zero, then the power system simulation scenario s has the risk of positive / negative reserve capacity missing; otherwise, the power system simulation s does not have the risk of positive / negative reserve capacity missing.

[0022] Furthermore, determining the number of power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risk based on the total count value includes:

[0023] The number of power system simulation scenarios with the risk of missing positive reserve capacity at time t is determined by the following formula:

[0024]

[0025] The number of power system simulation scenarios with the risk of negative reserve capacity loss at time t is determined by the following formula:

[0026]

[0027] In the above formula, is the count of positive reserve capacity loss risks at time t under power system simulation scenario s, is the count of negative reserve capacity missing at time t under power system simulation scenario s, s∈S, and S is the total number of power system simulation scenarios.

[0028] Preferably, the quantifying the positive / negative reserve capacity loss risk probability of the power system according to a power system simulation scenario with capacity loss risk includes:

[0029] The probability of missing positive reserve capacity risk of the power system at time t is determined by the following formula:

[0030]

[0031] The probability of negative reserve capacity loss risk of the power system at time t is determined by the following formula:

[0032]

[0033] In the above formula, is the number of power system simulation scenarios with the risk of missing positive reserve capacity at time t, is the number of power system simulation scenarios with the risk of negative reserve capacity loss at time t, and S is the total number of power system simulation scenarios.

[0034] The present invention provides a system for quantifying the probability of loss of reserve capacity risk in a power system, wherein the system comprises:

[0035] A first determination module is used to determine the power system positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient of each power system simulation scenario based on the conventional unit output plan in each power system simulation scenario;

[0036] A second determination module is used to determine the number of power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risks based on the power system positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient of each power system simulation scenario;

[0037] The quantification module is used to quantify the positive / negative reserve capacity loss risk probability of the power system based on a power system simulation scenario with capacity loss risk.

[0038] Preferably, the first determining module is configured to:

[0039] Determine the positive reserve capacity loss coefficient of the power system at time t under the power system simulation scenario s according to the following formula:

[0040]

[0041] Determine the negative reserve capacity missing coefficient of the power system at time t under the power system simulation scenario s according to the following formula:

[0042]

[0043] In the above formula, P max,t is the maximum output plan of the conventional unit started at time t, P min,t is the minimum output plan of the conventional machine started at time t, P t RE,s is the predicted value of renewable energy output corresponding to time t under the power system simulation scenario s, al in,t is the net power received by the inter-provincial tie lines at time t, PD t is the load forecast data at time t, s∈S, and S is the total number of power system simulation scenarios.

[0044] Preferably, the second determining module includes:

[0045] A judgment unit, configured to judge whether there is a positive / negative reserve capacity loss risk in the power system simulation scenario according to the positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient of the power system in each power system simulation scenario;

[0046] a counting unit, used for counting power system simulation scenarios with a risk of loss of positive / negative reserve capacity;

[0047] The determining unit is used to determine the number of power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risks according to the total value of the count.

[0048] Furthermore, the judgment unit is used to:

[0049] If the power system positive / negative reserve capacity missing coefficient of the power system simulation scenario s is greater than zero, then the power system simulation scenario s has the risk of positive / negative reserve capacity missing; otherwise, the power system simulation s does not have the risk of positive / negative reserve capacity missing.

[0050] Furthermore, the determining unit is configured to:

[0051] The number of power system simulation scenarios with the risk of missing positive reserve capacity at time t is determined by the following formula:

[0052]

[0053] The number of power system simulation scenarios with the risk of negative reserve capacity loss at time t is determined by the following formula:

[0054]

[0055] In the above formula, is the count of positive reserve capacity loss risks at time t under power system simulation scenario s, is the count of negative reserve capacity missing at time t under power system simulation scenario s, s∈S, and S is the total number of power system simulation scenarios.

[0056] Preferably, the quantization module is used to:

[0057] The probability of missing positive reserve capacity risk of the power system at time t is determined by the following formula:

[0058]

[0059] The probability of negative reserve capacity loss risk of the power system at time t is determined by the following formula:

[0060]

[0061] In the above formula, is the number of power system simulation scenarios with the risk of missing positive reserve capacity at time t, is the number of power system simulation scenarios with the risk of negative reserve capacity loss at time t, and S is the total number of power system simulation scenarios.

[0062] Compared with the closest prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0063] The present invention provides a method and system for quantifying the probability of reserve capacity loss risk of a power system. The method and system determine the positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient of the power system for each power system simulation scenario based on the output plan of conventional units in each power system simulation scenario, determine the number of power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risk based on the positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient of the power system for each power system simulation scenario, and quantify the positive / negative reserve capacity loss risk probability of the power system based on the number of power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risk. The technical solution provided by the present invention determines the positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient and the positive / negative reserve capacity loss risk probability of the power system under a large number of power system operation scenarios based on a large number of power system operation scenarios, takes wind / solar output uncertainty into account in the reserve capacity loss risk probability, more accurately characterizes the risk brought by wind / solar output uncertainty to the operation of the power system, improves the system's risk prediction capability, and ensures the safe operation of the power grid. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0064] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a method for quantifying the probability of loss of reserve capacity risk in a power system provided by the present invention;

[0065] Figure 2 This is a structural diagram of a system for quantifying the probability of loss of reserve capacity risk in a power system provided by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0066] The specific embodiments of the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0067] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention more clear, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings of the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative efforts shall fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0068] The present invention provides a method for quantifying the risk probability of loss of reserve capacity in power systems, such as Figure 1 As shown, the method includes:

[0069] Determine the power system positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient for each power system simulation scenario based on the conventional unit output plan in each power system simulation scenario;

[0070] Determine the number of power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risks based on the power system positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient of each power system simulation scenario;

[0071] The probability of positive / negative reserve capacity loss risk of the power system is quantified based on power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risk.

[0072] In a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the determining of the power system positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient for each power system simulation scenario based on the conventional unit output plan in each power system simulation scenario includes:

[0073] Determine the positive reserve capacity loss coefficient of the power system at time t under the power system simulation scenario s according to the following formula:

[0074]

[0075] Determine the negative reserve capacity missing coefficient of the power system at time t under the power system simulation scenario s according to the following formula:

[0076]

[0077] In the above formula, P max,t is the maximum output plan of the conventional unit started at time t, P min,t is the minimum output plan of the conventional machine started at time t, P t RE,s is the predicted value of renewable energy output corresponding to time t under the power system simulation scenario s, al in,t is the net power received by the inter-provincial tie lines at time t, PD t is the load forecast data at time t, s∈S, and S is the total number of power system simulation scenarios.

[0078] In a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the determining of the number of power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risk based on the power system positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient of each power system simulation scenario includes:

[0079] Determine whether there is a positive / negative reserve capacity loss risk in the power system simulation scenario based on the positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient of the power system in each power system simulation scenario;

[0080] Count power system simulation scenarios with the risk of missing positive / negative reserve capacity;

[0081] The number of power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risk is determined based on the total value of the count.

[0082] Furthermore, judging whether there is a positive / negative reserve capacity loss risk in the power system simulation scenario based on the positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient of the power system in each power system simulation scenario includes:

[0083] If the power system positive / negative reserve capacity missing coefficient of the power system simulation scenario s is greater than zero, then the power system simulation scenario s has the risk of positive / negative reserve capacity missing; otherwise, the power system simulation s does not have the risk of positive / negative reserve capacity missing.

[0084] Further counting of power system simulation scenarios with the risk of loss of positive / negative reserve capacity, including:

[0085] The number of positive reserve capacity loss risks at time t under power system simulation scenario s is determined as follows:

[0086]

[0087] The number of negative reserve capacity missing at time t in the power system simulation scenario s is determined by the following formula:

[0088]

[0089] In the above formula, is the positive reserve capacity missing coefficient of the power system at time t under the power system simulation scenario s, is the negative reserve capacity missing coefficient of the power system at time t under the power system simulation scenario s, s∈S, and S is the total number of power system simulation scenarios.

[0090] Furthermore, determining the number of power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risk based on the total count value includes:

[0091] The number of power system simulation scenarios with the risk of missing positive reserve capacity at time t is determined by the following formula:

[0092]

[0093] The number of power system simulation scenarios with the risk of negative reserve capacity loss at time t is determined by the following formula:

[0094]

[0095] In the above formula, is the count of positive reserve capacity loss risks at time t under power system simulation scenario s, is the count of negative reserve capacity missing at time t under power system simulation scenario s, s∈S, and S is the total number of power system simulation scenarios.

[0096] In a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the quantification of the positive / negative reserve capacity loss risk probability of the power system according to a power system simulation scenario with a capacity loss risk includes:

[0097] The probability of missing positive reserve capacity risk of the power system at time t is determined by the following formula:

[0098]

[0099] The probability of negative reserve capacity loss risk of the power system at time t is determined by the following formula:

[0100]

[0101] In the above formula, is the number of power system simulation scenarios with the risk of missing positive reserve capacity at time t, is the number of power system simulation scenarios with the risk of negative reserve capacity loss at time t, and S is the total number of power system simulation scenarios.

[0102] The present invention provides a system for quantifying the risk probability of loss of reserve capacity in power systems, such as Figure 2 As shown, the system includes:

[0103] A first determination module is used to determine the power system positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient of each power system simulation scenario based on the conventional unit output plan in each power system simulation scenario;

[0104] A second determination module is used to determine the number of power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risks based on the power system positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient of each power system simulation scenario;

[0105] The quantification module is used to quantify the positive / negative reserve capacity loss risk probability of the power system based on a power system simulation scenario with capacity loss risk.

[0106] In a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the first determining module is configured to:

[0107] Determine the positive reserve capacity loss coefficient of the power system at time t under the power system simulation scenario s according to the following formula:

[0108]

[0109] Determine the negative reserve capacity missing coefficient of the power system at time t under the power system simulation scenario s according to the following formula:

[0110]

[0111] In the above formula, P max,t is the maximum output plan of the conventional unit started at time t, P min,t is the minimum output plan of the conventional machine started at time t, P tRE,s is the predicted value of renewable energy output corresponding to time t under the power system simulation scenario s, al in,t is the net power received by the inter-provincial tie lines at time t, PD t is the load forecast data at time t, s∈S, and S is the total number of power system simulation scenarios.

[0112] In a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the second determining module includes:

[0113] A judgment unit, configured to judge whether there is a positive / negative reserve capacity loss risk in the power system simulation scenario according to the positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient of the power system in each power system simulation scenario;

[0114] a counting unit, used for counting power system simulation scenarios with a risk of loss of positive / negative reserve capacity;

[0115] The determining unit is used to determine the number of power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risks according to the total value of the count.

[0116] Furthermore, the judgment unit is used to:

[0117] If the power system positive / negative reserve capacity missing coefficient of the power system simulation scenario s is greater than zero, then the power system simulation scenario s has the risk of positive / negative reserve capacity missing; otherwise, the power system simulation s does not have the risk of positive / negative reserve capacity missing.

[0118] Furthermore, the counting unit is used to:

[0119] The number of positive reserve capacity loss risks at time t under power system simulation scenario s is determined as follows:

[0120]

[0121] The number of negative reserve capacity missing at time t in the power system simulation scenario s is determined by the following formula:

[0122]

[0123] In the above formula, is the positive reserve capacity missing coefficient of the power system at time t under the power system simulation scenario s, is the negative reserve capacity missing coefficient of the power system at time t under the power system simulation scenario s, s∈S, and S is the total number of power system simulation scenarios.

[0124] Furthermore, the determining unit is configured to:

[0125] The number of power system simulation scenarios with the risk of missing positive reserve capacity at time t is determined by the following formula:

[0126]

[0127] The number of power system simulation scenarios with the risk of negative reserve capacity loss at time t is determined by the following formula:

[0128]

[0129] In the above formula, is the count of positive reserve capacity loss risks at time t under power system simulation scenario s, is the count of negative reserve capacity missing at time t under power system simulation scenario s, s∈S, and S is the total number of power system simulation scenarios.

[0130] In a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the quantization module is configured to:

[0131] The probability of missing positive reserve capacity risk of the power system at time t is determined by the following formula:

[0132]

[0133] The probability of negative reserve capacity loss risk of the power system at time t is determined by the following formula:

[0134]

[0135] In the above formula, is the number of power system simulation scenarios with the risk of missing positive reserve capacity at time t, is the number of power system simulation scenarios with the risk of negative reserve capacity loss at time t, and S is the total number of power system simulation scenarios.

[0136] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the embodiments of the present application can be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present application can adopt the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment in combination with software and hardware. Moreover, the present application can adopt the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to magnetic disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) that contain computer-usable program code.

[0137] The present application is described with reference to the flowcharts and / or block diagrams of the methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to the embodiments of the present application. It should be understood that each process and / or box in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of the processes and / or boxes in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to produce a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the steps in the process. Figure 1 a process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0138] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to work in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 a process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The function specified in one or more boxes.

[0139] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operational steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing the instructions executed on the computer or other programmable device for implementing the process. Figure 1 a process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps for the function specified in one or more boxes.

[0140] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention and not to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, ordinary technicians in the field should understand that the specific implementation methods of the present invention can still be modified or replaced by equivalents. Any modification or equivalent replacement that does not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be covered by the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for quantifying the risk probability of backup capacity loss in a power system, characterized in that: The method comprises: Determine the power system positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient for each power system simulation scenario based on the conventional unit output plan in each power system simulation scenario; Determine the number of power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risks based on the power system positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient of each power system simulation scenario; Quantify the probability of positive / negative reserve capacity loss risk in the power system based on power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risk; The determining of the power system positive / negative reserve capacity missing coefficient of each power system simulation scenario based on the conventional unit output plan in each power system simulation scenario includes: Determine the power system simulation scenario as follows Down t The positive reserve capacity loss coefficient of the power system at the moment : Determine the power system simulation scenario as follows Down t The negative reserve capacity missing coefficient of the power system at that moment : In the above formula, for t Maximum output plan of conventional units that are always on, for t Minimum output plan for conventional machines that are always on, Simulating scenarios for power systems s Next time t The corresponding new energy output forecast value, for t The net power input to the inter-provincial interconnection lines at any given moment, for t Time-of-day load forecast data, , is the total number of power system simulation scenarios; The determining of the number of power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risks based on the power system positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficients of each power system simulation scenario includes: Determine whether there is a positive / negative reserve capacity loss risk in the power system simulation scenario based on the positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient of the power system in each power system simulation scenario; Count power system simulation scenarios with the risk of missing positive / negative reserve capacity; Determine the number of power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risks according to the total count value; The method of quantifying the positive / negative reserve capacity loss risk probability of the power system according to a power system simulation scenario with a capacity loss risk includes: Press the formula to confirm t The probability of missing positive reserve capacity risk of the power system at the moment : Press the formula to confirm t The probability of missing risk of negative reserve capacity in the power system at the moment : In the above formula, for t The number of power system simulation scenarios where there is always a risk of loss of positive reserve capacity, for t The number of power system simulation scenarios with the risk of negative reserve capacity loss at all times, is the total number of power system simulation scenarios.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein The determining whether a power system simulation scenario has a positive / negative reserve capacity loss risk based on the power system positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient of each power system simulation scenario includes: If the power system simulation scenario The power system positive / negative reserve capacity missing coefficient is greater than zero, then the power system simulation scenario There is a risk of missing positive / negative reserve capacity; otherwise, power system simulation There is no risk of loss of positive / negative spare capacity.

3. The method according to claim 1, wherein Determining the number of power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risk based on the total count value includes: Press the formula to confirm t Number of power system simulation scenarios with the risk of loss of positive reserve capacity at all times : Press the formula to confirm t Number of power system simulation scenarios with the risk of negative reserve capacity loss at all times : In the above formula, Simulating scenarios for power systems Down t The number of times there is a risk of loss of positive spare capacity at any time, Simulating scenarios for power systems Down t There is a count of negative spare capacity missing at all times, , is the total number of power system simulation scenarios.

4. A system for quantifying the risk probability of loss of backup capacity in a power system, characterized in that: The system comprises: A first determination module is used to determine the power system positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient of each power system simulation scenario based on the conventional unit output plan in each power system simulation scenario; A second determination module is used to determine the number of power system simulation scenarios with capacity loss risks based on the power system positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient of each power system simulation scenario; A quantification module is used to quantify the probability of positive / negative reserve capacity loss risk of the power system based on a power system simulation scenario with capacity loss risk; The first determining module is configured to: Determine the power system simulation scenario as follows Down t The positive reserve capacity loss coefficient of the power system at the moment : Determine the power system simulation scenario as follows Down t The negative reserve capacity missing coefficient of the power system at that moment : In the above formula, for t Maximum output plan of conventional units that are always on, for t Minimum output plan for conventional machines that are always on, Simulating scenarios for power systems s Next time t The corresponding new energy output forecast value, for t The net power input to the inter-provincial interconnection lines at any given moment, for t Time-of-day load forecast data, , is the total number of power system simulation scenarios; The second determining module includes: A judgment unit, configured to judge whether there is a positive / negative reserve capacity loss risk in the power system simulation scenario according to the positive / negative reserve capacity loss coefficient of the power system in each power system simulation scenario; a counting unit, used for counting power system simulation scenarios with a risk of loss of positive / negative reserve capacity; a determination unit, configured to determine the number of power system simulation scenarios having a capacity loss risk according to a total value of the count; The quantization module is used to: Press the formula to confirm t The probability of missing positive reserve capacity risk of the power system at the moment : Press the formula to confirm t The probability of missing risk of negative reserve capacity in the power system at the moment : In the above formula, for t The number of power system simulation scenarios where there is always a risk of loss of positive reserve capacity, for t The number of power system simulation scenarios with the risk of negative reserve capacity loss at all times, is the total number of power system simulation scenarios.

5. The system according to claim 4, wherein: The judging unit is configured to: If the power system simulation scenario The power system positive / negative reserve capacity missing coefficient is greater than zero, then the power system simulation scenario There is a risk of missing positive / negative reserve capacity; otherwise, power system simulation There is no risk of loss of positive / negative spare capacity.

6. The system according to claim 4, wherein: The determining unit is configured to: Press the formula to confirm t Number of power system simulation scenarios with the risk of loss of positive reserve capacity at all times : Press the formula to confirm t Number of power system simulation scenarios with the risk of negative reserve capacity loss at all times : In the above formula, Simulating scenarios for power systems Down t The number of times there is a risk of loss of positive spare capacity at any time, Simulating scenarios for power systems Down t There is a count of negative spare capacity missing at all times, , is the total number of power system simulation scenarios.

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