A comprehensive risk assessment method and device for satellite on-orbit operation

Abstract

This invention provides a comprehensive assessment method and apparatus for satellite on-orbit operation risk, comprising: identifying risk influencing factors of satellite on-orbit operation according to satellite-specific characteristics and general quality characteristics; using satellite on-orbit operation risk as the target layer and satellite-specific characteristics and general quality characteristics as the criterion layer, and dividing the risk influencing factors at each level under satellite-specific characteristics and general quality characteristics into sub-criterion layers, single-unit layers, and indicator layers according to hierarchical relationships to construct an indicator system, and determining the relative weight values ​​of risk influencing factors at each layer; acquiring telemetry parameters of the single-unit health status of the satellite system and telemetry data related to satellite service availability, determining the scores of each risk influencing factor at the lowest level of the indicator system, recursively determining the risk assessment score of the target layer, and judging the on-orbit operation health status of the satellite system. According to the assessment method of this invention, risk prevention and control measures can be formulated for weak points of the satellite, which will greatly improve the satellite service capability.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention belongs to the field of satellite system risk assessment technology, and specifically relates to a comprehensive assessment method and device for satellite on-orbit operation risk. Background Technology

[0002] Satellites are vital space resources, providing services such as remote sensing, navigation, communication, and meteorology to the ground. They are widely used in various aspects of the national economy, and large, complex aerospace systems such as the Gaofen system and the BeiDou system are indispensable and crucial space information infrastructures in modern society. During their on-orbit operation, satellites' service provision is affected by factors such as equipment aging, performance degradation, and the space environment. Developing a method to scientifically assess the operational status of satellites using the data generated during their on-orbit operation will enable relevant departments to take timely measures to reduce satellite operational risks, thereby improving the satellite's service provision capabilities. Summary of the Invention

[0003] To overcome the shortcomings of existing technologies, the inventors have conducted intensive research and provided a comprehensive assessment method for satellite on-orbit operation risks. This method utilizes various data generated during satellite on-orbit operation to scientifically assess the satellite's operational status, monitor satellite system operational risks in real time, and enable relevant departments to take timely measures to reduce satellite operational risks and improve the satellite's ability to provide services, thus completing this invention.

[0004] The technical solution provided by this invention is as follows:

[0005] Firstly, a comprehensive risk assessment method for satellite on-orbit operation includes:

[0006] Risk factors affecting satellite operation in orbit are identified based on satellite-specific characteristics and general quality characteristics. Risk factors under specific characteristics include the various subsystems that make up the satellite, the individual units in each subsystem, and the telemetry parameters of the health status of each individual unit. Risk factors under general quality characteristics include satellite service availability.

[0007] Using the on-orbit operation risk of satellites as the target layer and the satellite-specific characteristics and general quality characteristics as the criteria layer, the risk influencing factors at all levels under the satellite-specific characteristics and general quality characteristics are divided into sub-criteria layer, single-machine layer and indicator layer according to the hierarchical relationship, and the indicator system is constructed. The relative weight values ​​of the risk influencing factors at each layer in the indicator system are determined.

[0008] The system acquires telemetry parameters of the health status of individual satellite units and telemetry data related to satellite service availability. It determines the scores of each risk factor at the lowest level of the indicator system and, based on this, recursively calculates the scores of each risk factor at the upper-level individual unit layer, sub-criteria layer, and criterion layer by combining relative weight values. This determines the target layer risk assessment score. Based on the final target layer risk assessment score, the system judges the on-orbit operational health status of the satellite system and identifies the risk prevention and control measures for weak nodes.

[0009] Secondly, a comprehensive risk assessment device for satellite on-orbit operation, which performs a comprehensive risk assessment for satellite on-orbit operation through the following steps:

[0010] Risk factors affecting satellite operation in orbit are identified based on satellite-specific characteristics and general quality characteristics. Risk factors under specific characteristics include the various subsystems that make up the satellite, the individual units in each subsystem, and the telemetry parameters of the health status of each individual unit. Risk factors under general quality characteristics include satellite service availability.

[0011] Using the on-orbit operation risk of satellites as the target layer and the satellite-specific characteristics and general quality characteristics as the criteria layer, the risk influencing factors at all levels under the satellite-specific characteristics and general quality characteristics are divided into sub-criteria layer, single-machine layer and indicator layer according to the hierarchical relationship, and the indicator system is constructed. The relative weight values ​​of the risk influencing factors at each layer in the indicator system are determined.

[0012] The system acquires telemetry parameters of the health status of individual satellite units and telemetry data related to satellite service availability. It then determines the scores of each risk factor at the lowest level of the indicator system. Based on these scores and relative weight values, it recursively calculates the scores of each risk factor at the upper-level individual unit layer, sub-criteria layer, and criterion layer. Finally, it determines the target layer risk assessment score and judges the on-orbit health status of the satellite system based on the final target layer risk assessment score.

[0013] The comprehensive risk assessment method and apparatus for satellite on-orbit operation provided by the present invention have the following beneficial effects:

[0014] (1) This invention identifies and determines the factors affecting the risk of satellite operation in orbit according to the satellite’s special characteristics and general quality characteristics. It starts from the two aspects of basic support and service capabilities for satellite operation, and can comprehensively and accurately assess the risk of satellite operation in orbit.

[0015] (2) This invention divides the risk influencing factors at all levels under the satellite-specific characteristics and general quality characteristics into sub-criteria layer, single-machine layer and index layer according to the hierarchical relationship, and constructs an index system, which can solve the current problem of lacking evaluation indicators and clear evaluation mechanisms for assessing the risk of satellite on-orbit operation.

[0016] (3) The present invention provides a comprehensive assessment method and device for satellite on-orbit operation risk, which uses various data generated during satellite on-orbit operation to scientifically assess the satellite's operating status, monitor the satellite system's operating risks in real time, and enable relevant departments to take timely measures to reduce satellite operating risks and improve the satellite's ability to provide services. Attached Figure Description

[0017] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of the comprehensive risk assessment methodology for satellite on-orbit operation.

[0018] Figure 2 A comprehensive evaluation index system for satellite operation risks;

[0019] Figure 3 This refers to the Markov state transition process of a satellite.

[0020] Figure 4 A satellite availability evaluation model based on the Markov process;

[0021] Figure 5 Example of telemetry data for solar cell array current;

[0022] Figure 6 This is an example of telemetry data for the voltage of a solar cell array. Detailed Implementation

[0023] The features and advantages of the present invention will become clearer and more apparent from the following detailed description.

[0024] The term “exemplary” as used herein means “serving as an example, embodiment, or illustration.” Any embodiment illustrated herein as “exemplary” is not necessarily to be construed as superior to or better than other embodiments. Although various aspects of embodiments are shown in the accompanying drawings, the drawings are not necessarily drawn to scale unless specifically indicated otherwise.

[0025] According to a first aspect of the present invention, a comprehensive assessment method for the on-orbit operation risk of a satellite is provided, such as... Figure 1 As shown, it includes:

[0026] S1. Identify the risk factors affecting the satellite's on-orbit operation according to the satellite's specific characteristics and general quality characteristics. Under specific characteristics, the risk factors include the various subsystems that make up the satellite, the individual units in each subsystem, and the telemetry parameters of the health status of each individual unit. Under general quality characteristics, the risk factors include satellite service availability. Satellite service availability is mainly calculated from data such as short-term unplanned interruptions and long-term unplanned interruptions caused by satellite failures or anomalies, as well as short-term planned interruptions and long-term planned interruptions caused for maintenance and other purposes.

[0027] S2 uses the on-orbit operational risks of satellites as the target layer and satellite-specific and general quality characteristics as the criterion layer. It further divides the risk influencing factors at each level under satellite-specific and general quality characteristics into sub-criterion layers, single-machine layers, and indicator layers according to hierarchical relationships, thus constructing an indicator system (see...). Figure 2 ), and determine the relative weight values ​​of risk influencing factors at each level of the indicator system;

[0028] S3. Acquire telemetry parameters of the health status of individual units in the satellite system and telemetry data related to satellite service availability. Determine the scores of each risk influencing factor at the lowest level of the indicator system. Based on this, combine the relative weight values ​​to recursively deduce the scores of each risk influencing factor at the upper-level unit layer, sub-criteria layer, and criterion layer. Then determine the target layer risk assessment score. Based on the final target layer risk assessment score, judge the on-orbit operational health status of the satellite system and identify the risk prevention and control measures for weak nodes.

[0029] In step S1 of this invention, the satellite-specific characteristics refer to the fact that the satellite needs to provide services 24 / 7, requiring basic support resources to do so. The general quality characteristics refer to the fact that accurately measuring service availability better reflects the satellite's service capability and provides guidance for preventative decision-making. Under the specific characteristics, the various subsystems of the satellite in the risk influencing factors include the power supply subsystem, attitude and orbit control subsystem, uplink telemetry and control subsystem, and downlink telemetry and control subsystem. The power supply subsystem provides power support throughout the satellite's operation; the attitude and orbit control subsystem adjusts the satellite's attitude in a timely manner to prevent it from deviating from its orbit; and the uplink and downlink telemetry and control subsystems ensure the forwarding of relevant command information and telemetry data during satellite operation.

[0030] Furthermore, the specific components of each subsystem within the satellite, as identified in the risk influencing factors, are as follows:

[0031] The individual units in the power subsystem include solar cell arrays and batteries;

[0032] The individual units in the attitude and orbit control subsystem include momentum wheel, gyroscope, earth sensor, and star sensor;

[0033] The individual units in the telemetry and control uplink subsystem include transponder 1, combiner / splitter, and duplexer;

[0034] The individual units in the downlink measurement and control subsystem include amplifiers and transponders.

[0035] In the power subsystem, the solar cell array and the battery are the two main units that store and generate power. During the shadow of the sun, the solar panels are the main unit that performs photoelectric conversion to power the various components on the satellite so that they can work normally. During the shadow of the earth, the satellite loses sunlight and the solar panels do not output power, so the satellite needs to be powered by the battery.

[0036] The attitude and orbit control subsystem mainly relies on four key components: momentum wheel, gyroscope, earth sensor, and star sensor. Since the satellite's on-orbit fixed position will constantly drift and its orbital position will constantly change, the earth sensor is needed to measure the roll angle and pitch angle in a timely manner. In order to ensure the accuracy of the satellite attitude data, the gyroscope needs to be calibrated.

[0037] In the uplink telemetry and control, the main components are transponder 1, synthesizer, and duplexer; in the downlink telemetry and control, the main components are amplifier and transponder 2. The health status of each unit is obtained by analyzing the telemetry data and trends of each unit.

[0038] Furthermore, the telemetry parameters of the health status of each individual unit among the risk influencing factors are the key monitoring indicators for each individual unit, as detailed below:

[0039] The key monitoring indicators for solar cell arrays are voltage and current;

[0040] The key monitoring indicator for batteries is discharge voltage;

[0041] The key monitoring indicators for momentum wheels are current, rotational speed, and frictional torque.

[0042] The key monitoring indicators for a gyroscope are motor current and angular rate.

[0043] The key monitoring indicators for the Earth sensor are temperature and pitch angle.

[0044] The key monitoring indicators for star sensors are temperature and angular velocity.

[0045] The key monitoring indicators for transponder 1 are voltage and power;

[0046] The key monitoring indicator for the synthesizer splitter is its status;

[0047] The key monitoring indicator for duplexers is the shell temperature;

[0048] The key monitoring parameters for amplifiers are current and power.

[0049] The key monitoring indicators for transponder 2 are voltage and power.

[0050] In step S2 of this invention, the step of dividing the risk impact factors at all levels under the satellite's specific characteristics and general quality characteristics into sub-criteria layer, single-machine layer and indicator layer according to hierarchical relationship to complete the indicator system, under the specific characteristics, each subsystem of the satellite in the risk impact factors belongs to the sub-criteria layer, each single machine in the satellite's subsystem belongs to the single-machine layer, and the telemetry parameters of the health status of each single machine belongs to the indicator layer; under the general quality characteristics, the satellite service availability in the risk impact factors belongs to the sub-criteria layer.

[0051] In step S2 of this invention, the step of determining the relative weight values ​​of risk influencing factors at each level of the indicator system uses the 1-9 scaling method to determine the relative weight values ​​of specific characteristics and general quality characteristics in the criterion level; and uses the 1-9 scaling method to determine the relative weight values ​​of each risk influencing factor in the sub-criterion level, single-machine level, and indicator level under specific characteristics and general quality characteristics.

[0052] When the only risk-influencing factor in the sub-criteria layer under the general quality characteristics is satellite service availability, the relative weight of satellite service availability is 1.

[0053] Using a 1-9 scale, a judgment matrix is ​​constructed by comparing each level of indicators pairwise. Then, matrix operations are used to determine the relative weights of each indicator, using α... ij Let represent the comparison result of indicator i relative to indicator j, then:

[0054]

[0055] Table 1 Comparison Matrix Scale of Risk Hierarchy Analysis Method

[0056] scale definition 1 Indicator i and indicator j have the same effect 3 Indicator i has a slightly stronger influence than indicator j. 5 Indicator i has a stronger influence than indicator j. 7 The influence of indicator i is significantly stronger than that of indicator j. 9 The influence of indicator i is absolutely stronger than that of indicator j. 2,4,6,8 The influence of indicator i compared to indicator j lies between the two adjacent levels mentioned above.

[0057] Therefore, a pairwise comparison matrix of the sub-criteria layer for specific characteristics can be constructed, as shown below:

[0058]

[0059] Then, the consistency index CI, random consistency index RI, and consistency ratio CR are used to perform a consistency test. When CR < 0.1, the degree of inconsistency of the pairwise comparison matrix is ​​considered to be within the acceptable range, and it can be normalized and used as the weight value of each index. If the consistency test fails, the pairwise comparison matrix needs to be reconstructed.

[0060] In step S3 of this invention, the step of obtaining telemetry parameters of the health status of individual satellite units and telemetry data related to satellite service availability, and determining the scores of each risk influencing factor at the lowest level of the indicator system, is as follows: Figure 2 As shown, the risk factors at the bottom layer include the risk factors at the indicator layer under satellite-specific characteristics, and the satellite service availability at the sub-criteria layer under general quality characteristics.

[0061] The scoring rules for each risk factor affecting the indicator layer under the satellite-specific characteristics are as follows:

[0062] Within the specified envelope range, telemetry results in B = 100 points.

[0063] Telemetry is within the normal range: B = 60 points;

[0064] Telemetry values ​​outside the specified envelope range but within the normal range: B = xx points; the specific score is obtained by linear interpolation between the envelope value and the upper and lower limits of the normal value;

[0065] Telemetry readings outside the normal range: B = 0 points;

[0066] The normal value range and the envelope value range can both be determined based on the telemetry parameter files of each satellite.

[0067] The scoring rules for satellite service availability at the sub-criteria layer under general quality characteristics are as follows:

[0068] The availability evaluation model adopts the Markov chain state transition model ( Figure 3 ), where state 1 indicates that the satellite is working normally, state 0 indicates that the satellite is in a state of functional failure due to fault or interference, λ represents the failure rate of the satellite, and μ represents the repair rate of the satellite.

[0069] The model sets up two states for the satellite: available and unavailable. The transition from available to unavailable is caused by four different types of interruptions: short-term planned interruption, short-term unplanned interruption, long-term unplanned interruption, and long-term planned interruption. Figure 4 ).

[0070] λ STU , λ STS , λ LTS , λ LTU Indicates the failure rate of short-term planned interruptions, short-term unplanned interruptions, long-term unplanned interruptions, and long-term planned interruptions; μ STU μ STS μ LTS μ LTU These represent the recovery rates for short-term planned outages, short-term unplanned outages, long-term unplanned outages, and long-term outages, respectively. The formula for calculating satellite service availability (A) is:

[0071]

[0072] The formula for calculating the satellite service availability index score (B) is as follows:

[0073] B = A × 100 (2).

[0074] In this invention, when determining the scores of each risk influencing factor at the single-machine layer:

[0075] n represents the number of risk factors affecting this single machine in the indicator layer.

[0076] The inventors have discovered that each unit, as a specific working module within a subsystem, undertakes specific tasks for the satellite's operation. Therefore, in addition to quantifiable telemetry data, it also reflects the unit's status through switch status variables. These switch status variables indicate whether the unit is in operation or standby mode. Thus, before determining the scores for each risk factor at the unit level, the switch status variable parameters are determined. The judgment of these parameters is a veto; if telemetry determines the parameter is incorrect, the unit receives a score of 0. Only if the parameter is correct are the relevant risk factors for the unit scored according to the indicator layer.

[0077] In this invention, when determining the scores of each risk influencing factor at the sub-criteria level:

[0078] m represents the number of risk factors affecting this subsystem in the single-machine layer;

[0079] In this invention, when determining the scores of each risk influencing factor at the criterion level:

[0080]

[0081]

[0082] k and q represent the number of risk influencing factors related to specific characteristics and general quality characteristics in the sub-criteria layer, respectively.

[0083] In this invention, when determining the target layer risk assessment score:

[0084] Target layer risk assessment score = satellite-specific characteristic score × weight + satellite general quality characteristic score × weight.

[0085] According to a second aspect of the present invention, a comprehensive risk assessment device for satellite on-orbit operation is provided, which performs a comprehensive risk assessment for satellite on-orbit operation through the following steps:

[0086] S1. Identify the risk factors affecting the satellite's on-orbit operation according to the satellite's specific characteristics and general quality characteristics. The risk factors under the specific characteristics include the various subsystems that make up the satellite, the individual units in the various subsystems of the satellite, and the telemetry parameters of the health status of each individual unit; the risk factors under the general quality characteristics include the availability of satellite services.

[0087] S2 uses the on-orbit operational risks of satellites as the target layer and satellite-specific and general quality characteristics as the criterion layer. It further divides the risk influencing factors at each level under satellite-specific and general quality characteristics into sub-criterion layers, single-machine layers, and indicator layers according to hierarchical relationships, thus constructing an indicator system (see...). Figure 2 ), and determine the relative weight values ​​of risk influencing factors at each level of the indicator system;

[0088] S3. Acquire telemetry parameters of the health status of individual units in the satellite system and telemetry data related to satellite service availability. Determine the scores of each risk influencing factor at the lowest level of the indicator system. Based on this, combine the relative weight values ​​to recursively deduce the scores of each risk influencing factor at the upper-level unit layer, sub-criteria layer, and criterion layer. Then determine the target layer risk assessment score. Based on the final target layer risk assessment score, judge the on-orbit operational health status of the satellite system and identify the risk prevention and control measures for weak nodes.

[0089] Those skilled in the art will clearly understand that, for the sake of convenience and brevity, the specific working process of the device described above can be referred to the corresponding process in the foregoing method embodiments, and will not be repeated here.

[0090] Those skilled in the art will recognize that, in one or more of the examples above, the functions described in this invention can be implemented using hardware, software, firmware, or any combination thereof. When implemented in software, these functions can be stored in a computer-readable medium or transmitted as one or more instructions or code on a computer-readable medium. Computer-readable media include computer storage media and communication media, wherein communication media include any medium that facilitates the transfer of a computer program from one place to another. Storage media can be any available medium accessible to a general-purpose or special-purpose computer.

[0091] Example

[0092] Example 1

[0093] Taking a certain satellite as an example, this satellite was launched on time at 9:00 AM on July 18, 2018, and had been operating for 3 years and 9 months as of April 18, 2022. Utilizing... Figure 2 The comprehensive evaluation index system for operational risks constructed in the study was used to assess the risks of the satellite during its on-orbit operation (September 1, 2021 - September 29, 2021).

[0094] To determine the weights, firstly, the various indicators in the comprehensive evaluation index system for satellite on-orbit operation risks are numbered, as shown in Table 2 below.

[0095] Table 2. Satellite Operation Risk Comprehensive Evaluation Index Numbering Table

[0096]

[0097] Based on the above introduction to the comparison matrix, and through expert scoring, the relative weights of each layer in the comprehensive evaluation index system for the on-orbit operation risk of the satellite can be obtained, as shown in Tables 3 to 6 below.

[0098] Table 3 Weight values ​​of the indicator layer

[0099] Indicator layer Weight Indicator layer Weight K1 0.5 Q1 0.5 K2 0.5 Q2 0.5 L1 1 R1 0.5 M1 0.3 R2 0.5 M2 0.3 S1 1 M3 0.4 T1 1 N1 0.5 U1 0.5 N2 0.5 U2 0.5 O1 0.5 V1 0.5 O2 0.5 V2 0.5

[0100] Table 4. Weight values ​​for a single machine layer

[0101] single-player Weight single-player Weight single-player Weight K 0.5 R 0.3 O 0.25 L 0.5 S 0.3 Q 0.25 M 0.25 T 0.4 V 0.5 N 0.25 U 0.5 G 1

[0102] Table 5 Sub-criteria layer weight values

[0103] Sub-criteria layer Weight Sub-criteria layer Weight C 0.25 E 0.25 D 0.25 F 0.25

[0104] Table 6. Criterion Layer Weight Values

[0105] Criterion layer Weight A 0.5 B 0.5

[0106] Determine the scores for each indicator

[0107] Taking the solar array current and voltage as an example, in this satellite, the normal range of the solar array current is 38-52A, and the envelope range is 42-48A. By acquiring and processing the telemetry data of the solar array current, its relationship with the normal range and envelope range is as follows: Figure 5 As shown.

[0108] Depend on Figure 5 It can be seen that the current of the solar cell array fluctuates within the envelope value range. According to the linear interpolation method, the current score of the solar cell array is 90 points, with a weight of 0.5.

[0109] The normal voltage range of a solar array is 31.5-60V, and the envelope range is 33-50V. By collecting and organizing telemetry data on the solar array voltage, its relationship with the normal and envelope ranges is as follows: Figure 6 As shown.

[0110] Depend on Figure 6 It can be seen that the voltage of the solar cell array fluctuates within the envelope value range. According to the linear interpolation method, the voltage score of the solar cell array is 100 points, with a weight of 0.5.

[0111] The formula for calculating the score of a solar cell array is: Solar cell array score = Voltage score × Weight + Current score × Weight.

[0112] Therefore, the solar array scores 95 points. The scores of the remaining individual units are obtained using the same method.

[0113] Based on collected materials, the satellite experienced one short-term unplanned outage, two short-term planned outages, and zero long-term unplanned outages and zero long-term planned outages between September 1st and September 29th, 2021. Its specific failure rate and repair rate are as follows:

[0114] λ STS =0.0001; λ STU=0.0001; λ LTS =0.000001; λ LTU =0.000002; μ STS =0.01; μ STU =0.01; μ LTS =0.05; μ LTU =0.02.

[0115] Substituting the above data into equation (1), we can calculate that the satellite service availability A is 0.9802 and the score B is 98.02.

[0116]

[0117] B = A × 100 (2)

[0118] Comprehensive risk assessment of satellite in-orbit operation

[0119] Based on the above analysis and calculation results, the final comprehensive risk assessment result for the satellite's on-orbit operation is 93.71 points, indicating that the satellite's operational status is good. The scores for each level of indicators are shown in Table 7.

[0120] Table 7. Comprehensive Assessment Results of Satellite Operation Risks

[0121]

[0122] As shown in Table 7, the satellite attitude and orbit control subsystem and downlink telemetry and control scores are 86.75 and 87.5 respectively. Among them, the gyroscope and earth sensor in the attitude and orbit control subsystem scored 85 and 80 respectively, and the amplifier in the downlink telemetry and control subsystem scored 80. These three types of single units need to be given special attention, and plans and preventive measures should be formulated in advance to ensure the overall operational capability of the satellite.

[0123] The present invention has been described in detail above with reference to specific embodiments and exemplary examples; however, these descriptions should not be construed as limiting the present invention. Those skilled in the art will understand that various equivalent substitutions, modifications, or improvements can be made to the technical solutions and embodiments of the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, and all such modifications and improvements fall within the scope of the present invention. The scope of protection of the present invention is defined by the appended claims.

[0124] The contents not described in detail in this specification are common knowledge to those skilled in the art.

Claims

1. A method for comprehensive evaluation of on-orbit operation risk of a satellite, characterized in that, The application relates to a satellite in-orbit operation risk evaluation method. The risk influence factors of the satellite in-orbit operation are identified according to satellite special characteristics and general quality characteristics, the risk influence factors under the special characteristics include various subsystems of the satellite, single machines in the various subsystems of the satellite, and telemetry parameters of the health states of the single machines, and the risk influence factors under the general quality characteristics include satellite service availability; The target layer is the satellite in-orbit operation risk, the criterion layer is the satellite special characteristics and the general quality characteristics, the risk influence factors at various levels under the satellite special characteristics and the general quality characteristics are divided into the sub-criterion layer, the single machine layer and the index layer according to the hierarchical relationship, the index system is constructed, and the relative weight values of the risk influence factors at various levels in the index system are determined; The telemetry parameters of the health states of the single machines in the satellite system and the telemetry data related to the satellite service availability are acquired, the scores of the risk influence factors at the index layer in the index system are determined, the scores of the risk influence factors at the single machine layer, the sub-criterion layer and the criterion layer are recursively calculated based on the scores and the relative weight values, the risk evaluation score of the target layer is determined, and the in-orbit operation health state of the satellite system is judged according to the final risk evaluation score of the target layer.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein, The various subsystems of the satellite in the risk influence factors include a power subsystem, an attitude and orbit control subsystem, an uplink telemetry control subsystem and a downlink telemetry control subsystem. 3.The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The single machines in the various subsystems of the satellite in the risk influence factors include: the single machines in the power subsystem: a solar cell array and a storage battery, the single machines in the attitude and orbit control subsystem: a momentum wheel, a gyroscope, an earth sensor and a star sensor, the single machines in the uplink telemetry control subsystem: a transponder 1, a hybrid coupler and a duplexer, the single machines in the downlink telemetry control subsystem: an amplifier and a transponder 2.

4. The method according to claim 3, wherein, The telemetry parameters of the health states of the single machines in the risk influence factors are key monitoring indexes of the single machines, including: the key monitoring indexes of the solar cell array: voltage and current; the key monitoring index of the storage battery: discharge voltage; the key monitoring indexes of the momentum wheel: current, rotating speed and friction torque; the key monitoring indexes of the gyroscope: motor current and angular speed; the key monitoring indexes of the earth sensor: temperature and pitch angle; the key monitoring indexes of the star sensor: temperature and angular speed; the key monitoring indexes of the transponder 1: voltage and power; the key monitoring index of the hybrid coupler: state; the key monitoring index of the duplexer: shell temperature; the key monitoring indexes of the amplifier: current and power; the key monitoring indexes of the transponder 2: voltage and power.

5. The method according to claim 1, wherein, In the step of dividing the risk influence factors at various levels under the satellite special characteristics and the general quality characteristics into the sub-criterion layer, the single machine layer and the index layer according to the hierarchical relationship and constructing the index system, under the special characteristics, the various subsystems of the satellite in the risk influence factors belong to the sub-criterion layer, the single machines in the various subsystems of the satellite belong to the single machine layer, and the telemetry parameters of the health states of the single machines belong to the index layer; under the general quality characteristics, the satellite service availability in the risk influence factors belongs to the sub-criterion layer. 6.The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, In the step of determining the relative weight values of the risk influencing factors in each layer of the index system, the 1-9 scale method is used to determine the relative weight values of the special characteristics and the general quality characteristics in the criterion layer; the 1-9 scale method is used to determine the relative weight values of the risk influencing factors in each layer of the sub-criterion layer, the single-machine layer and the index layer under the special characteristics and the general quality characteristics.

7. The method according to claim 1, wherein, In the step of obtaining the telemetry parameters of the health status of the single machines in the satellite system and the telemetry data related to the satellite service availability, and determining the scores of the risk influencing factors in the index layer of the index system, the scoring rules for the risk influencing factors in the index layer under the satellite special characteristics are as follows: Telemetry is within the specified envelope value range: B = 100 points; Telemetry is within the normal value range: B = 60 points; Telemetry is outside the specified envelope value range and within the normal value range: B = xx points; The specific score is obtained by linear interpolation between the upper and lower limits of the envelope value and the normal value; Telemetry is outside the normal value range: B = 0 points; The normal value range and the envelope value range can be determined according to the telemetry parameter files of each satellite. 8.The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, In the step of obtaining the telemetry parameters of the health status of the single machines in the satellite system and the telemetry data related to the satellite service availability, and determining the scores of the risk influencing factors in the index layer of the index system, the score B of the satellite service availability under the sub-criterion layer of the general quality characteristics is determined according to the following formula: B = A x 100; λ STU , λ STS , λ LTS , λ LTU Indicates the failure rate of short-term planned interruptions, short-term unplanned interruptions, long-term unplanned interruptions, and long-term planned interruptions; μ STU μ STS μ LTS μ LTU These represent the recovery rates for short-term planned interruptions, short-term unplanned interruptions, long-term unplanned interruptions, and long-term interruptions, respectively. 9.The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, Before determining the scores of the risk influencing factors in the single-machine layer, the state parameter single-machine switch state quantity is determined, and the judgment of the state parameter is a one-vote veto system. When the telemetry determines that the state parameter is incorrect, the single machine directly scores 0, and when it is correct, the scoring according to the related risk influencing factors in the index layer is implemented.

10. A satellite on-orbit risk comprehensive assessment device, characterized in that, The comprehensive evaluation of the satellite on-orbit operation risk is implemented through the following steps, including: According to the satellite special characteristics and the general quality characteristics, the risk influencing factors of the satellite on-orbit operation are identified. The risk influencing factors under the special characteristics include each subsystem of the satellite, each single machine in the satellite subsystem, and the telemetry parameters of the health status of each single machine. The risk influencing factors under the general quality characteristics include the satellite service availability; Taking the satellite on-orbit operation risk as the target layer, taking the satellite special characteristics and the general quality characteristics as the criterion layer, and dividing the risk influencing factors under the satellite special characteristics and the general quality characteristics into the sub-criterion layer, the single-machine layer and the index layer according to the hierarchical relationship, the index system is constructed, and the relative weight values of the risk influencing factors in each layer of the index system are determined; Obtaining the telemetry parameters of the health status of the single machines in the satellite system and the telemetry data related to the satellite service availability, determining the scores of the risk influencing factors in the index layer of the index system, and based on this, recursively determining the scores of the risk influencing factors in the single-machine layer, the sub-criterion layer and the criterion layer, and then determining the risk evaluation score of the target layer, and judging the on-orbit operation health status of the satellite system according to the final risk evaluation score of the target layer.

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