Pre-discharge scheduling method, system, equipment and medium for inter-basin water network connection project

Abstract

The present invention discloses a method, system, equipment and medium for pre-discharge scheduling of inter-basin water network connectivity projects, and relates to the field of optimized scheduling of inter-basin water network connectivity projects. The method includes: obtaining multivariate forecast information of the inter-basin water network connectivity project; determining multivariate forecast error probability distribution information based on the multivariate forecast information; constructing a multi-objective hedging model for pre-discharge scheduling of the inter-basin water network connectivity project based on the multivariate forecast error probability distribution information; the multi-objective hedging model includes: a reservoir flood control risk quantification function, a downstream flood control risk quantification function and an additional water diversion cost quantification function; determining the flood control benefit information of the pre-discharge scheduling scheme to be selected based on the multi-objective hedging model; determining the pre-discharge scheduling scheme to be selected whose flood control benefit information meets the set conditions as the optimal scheduling scheme; and using the optimal scheduling scheme to perform pre-discharge flow scheduling on the inter-basin water network connectivity project. The present invention can improve the flood control benefit of the water network connectivity project.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of optimized scheduling of inter-basin water network connection projects, and in particular to a pre-discharge scheduling method, system, equipment and medium for inter-basin water network connection projects. Background Art

[0002] Water network interconnection projects are comprehensive systems that integrate water resource optimization, river basin flood control and disaster reduction, and aquatic ecosystem protection. They not only enhance public welfare but also flood control benefits. Traditional inter-basin water network interconnection projects focus on improving water supply scheduling, failing to fully leverage the comprehensive benefits of interconnection projects, especially flood control. Pre-discharge scheduling technology based on forecast information is an effective means of improving flood control benefits. However, this technology is currently focused on single reservoirs, and there is no technology to enhance flood control for water network interconnection projects.

[0003] Water network interconnection projects can increase flood control benefits. When heavy rain is forecast at a receiving reservoir, pre-discharge can be initiated to increase flood control storage capacity. Since the receiving reservoir can draw water from the outflow reservoir through the interconnection project, there is more room for pre-discharge, resulting in greater flood control benefits. However, forecast information is uncertain, and false alarms increase water diversion costs. Furthermore, the combined uncertainty of pre-discharge flow and the interval inflow forecast can create flood control risks downstream. Greater pre-discharge flow increases flood control benefits, but also increases water diversion costs and downstream flood control risks. These three factors compete with each other, and quantifying and measuring these competing forces is key to unlocking the comprehensive benefits of interconnection projects.

[0004] However, pre-discharge scheduling for water network interconnection projects involves a large amount of available information and numerous risk factors, including uncertainty in flood forecasts for reservoirs and intervals, and uncertainty in rainfall forecasts. Forecast uncertainty may bring about multiple scheduling risks, including reservoir flood control risks, downstream flood control risks, and water diversion risks. Existing risk quantification methods for single reservoirs focus on a single risk source and are unable to measure the multiple risks caused by multiple risk factors in the connected water network. Therefore, traditional pre-discharge scheduling technology cannot be applied to water network interconnection projects.

[0005] Therefore, it is necessary to solve the above technical problems and improve the flood control benefits of water network interconnection projects. Summary of the Invention

[0006] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method, system, equipment and medium for pre-discharge scheduling of inter-basin water network connection projects, so as to improve the flood control benefits of water network connection projects.

[0007] To achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following solutions:

[0008] A method for pre-discharge scheduling of a cross-basin water network connection project, the method comprising:

[0009] Obtaining multivariate forecast information for inter-basin water network interconnection projects; the multivariate forecast information includes: flood forecast plans for receiving reservoirs, water drawdown forecast plans for receiving reservoirs, flood forecast plans for the interval between receiving reservoirs and downstream protected areas, and rainfall forecast information issued by meteorological centers;

[0010] Determining multivariate forecast error probability distribution information based on the multivariate forecast information; the multivariate forecast error probability distribution information includes: flood forecast error probability distribution of the receiving reservoir, rainfall forecast probability distribution of the receiving reservoir, water withdrawal forecast error probability distribution of the receiving reservoir, and flood forecast error probability distribution between the receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object;

[0011] A multi-objective hedging model for pre-discharge scheduling of inter-basin water network interconnection projects is constructed based on the multivariate forecast error probability distribution information; the multi-objective hedging model includes: a reservoir flood control risk quantification function, a downstream flood control risk quantification function, and an additional water diversion cost quantification function;

[0012] Determining flood control benefit information of a pre-discharge scheduling scheme to be selected based on the multi-objective hedging model; the flood control benefit information includes: a reservoir flood control risk rate, a downstream flood control risk rate, and additional water diversion costs;

[0013] Determine the selected pre-discharge scheduling scheme whose flood control benefit information meets the set conditions as the optimal scheduling scheme;

[0014] The optimal scheduling scheme is used to perform pre-discharge flow scheduling on the inter-basin water network connection project.

[0015] Optionally, determining the to-be-selected pre-discharge scheduling scheme whose flood control benefit information satisfies set conditions as the optimal scheduling scheme specifically includes:

[0016] determining the selected pre-discharge scheduling scheme whose flood control benefit information satisfies set constraints as the target pre-discharge scheduling scheme; the set constraints include: water balance constraint, reservoir capacity constraint, discharge flow constraint, acceptable water diversion cost constraint, reservoir acceptable risk constraint, and downstream acceptable risk constraint;

[0017] Determining a quantitative value of the flood control benefit of the target pre-discharge scheduling scheme according to the flood control benefit information;

[0018] The target pre-discharge scheduling scheme whose flood control benefit quantification value meets the set target conditions is determined as the optimal scheduling scheme; the set conditions include: the set constraint conditions and the set target conditions.

[0019] Optionally, the quantitative value of flood control benefits includes: a weighted sum of the reservoir flood control risk rate, the downstream flood control risk rate and the additional water diversion cost; and the set target condition includes: minimizing the weighted sum.

[0020] Optionally, the quantitative value of flood control benefits includes: the marginal value between the reservoir flood control risk rate, the downstream flood control risk rate and the additional water diversion cost; and the target setting condition includes: the marginal value is maximized.

[0021] Optionally, constructing a multi-objective hedging model for pre-discharge scheduling of inter-basin water network interconnection projects based on the multivariate forecast error probability distribution information specifically includes:

[0022] Determining a reservoir flood control risk quantification function based on a flood forecast error probability distribution of the receiving reservoir and a rainfall forecast probability distribution of the receiving reservoir;

[0023] Determining a downstream flood control risk quantification function based on a flood forecast error probability distribution between the receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object;

[0024] The additional water diversion cost quantification function is determined according to the error probability distribution of the water withdrawal forecast of the receiving reservoir and the probability distribution of the rainfall forecast of the receiving reservoir.

[0025] Optionally, a full probability risk quantification method is used to determine a reservoir flood control risk quantification function based on the flood forecast error probability distribution of the receiving reservoir and the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the receiving reservoir.

[0026] Optionally, determining multivariate forecast error probability distribution information based on the multivariate forecast information specifically includes:

[0027] Using a maximum entropy model, based on the flood forecast scheme of the receiving reservoir, the water withdrawal forecast scheme of the receiving reservoir, and the flood forecast scheme between the receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object, determine the flood forecast error probability distribution of the receiving reservoir, the water withdrawal forecast error probability distribution of the receiving reservoir, and the flood forecast error probability distribution between the receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object;

[0028] A P-III distribution function is used to determine the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the receiving reservoir based on the rainfall forecast information released by the meteorological center.

[0029] A pre-discharge scheduling system for an inter-basin water network interconnection project is applied to the above-mentioned pre-discharge scheduling method for an inter-basin water network interconnection project, and the system includes:

[0030] A multivariate forecast information acquisition module is used to obtain multivariate forecast information for inter-basin water network interconnection projects; the multivariate forecast information includes: flood forecast plans for receiving reservoirs, water withdrawal forecast plans for receiving reservoirs, flood forecast plans for the area between receiving reservoirs and downstream protection objects, and rainfall forecast information issued by the meteorological center;

[0031] a multivariate forecast error probability distribution information determination module, configured to determine multivariate forecast error probability distribution information based on the multivariate forecast information; the multivariate forecast error probability distribution information comprising: a flood forecast error probability distribution of a receiving reservoir, a rainfall forecast probability distribution of a receiving reservoir, a water withdrawal forecast error probability distribution of a receiving reservoir, and a flood forecast error probability distribution between a receiving reservoir and a downstream protected object;

[0032] A multi-objective hedging model construction module is used to construct a multi-objective hedging model for pre-discharge scheduling of inter-basin water network interconnection projects based on the multivariate forecast error probability distribution information; the multi-objective hedging model includes: a reservoir flood control risk quantification function, a downstream flood control risk quantification function, and an additional water diversion cost quantification function;

[0033] a flood control benefit information determination module, configured to determine the flood control benefit information of the pre-discharge scheduling scheme to be selected based on the multi-objective hedging model; the flood control benefit information includes: a reservoir flood control risk rate, a downstream flood control risk rate, and additional water diversion costs;

[0034] An optimal scheduling scheme determination module is used to determine the pre-discharge scheduling scheme to be selected whose flood control benefit information meets the set conditions as the optimal scheduling scheme;

[0035] The pre-discharge flow scheduling module is used to perform pre-discharge flow scheduling on the inter-basin water network connection project using the optimal scheduling solution.

[0036] An electronic device includes a memory and a processor, wherein the memory is used to store a computer program, and the processor runs the computer program to enable the electronic device to execute the above-mentioned pre-discharge scheduling method for the inter-basin water network connection project.

[0037] A computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, implements the above-mentioned pre-discharge scheduling method for inter-basin water network connection projects.

[0038] According to the specific embodiments provided by the present invention, the present invention discloses the following technical effects:

[0039] 1. The present invention is aimed at the joint scheduling of inter-basin water network interconnection projects. Based on the reservoir capacity compensation mechanism of water network projects, it proposes a pre-discharge scheduling technology that utilizes multivariate forecast information and the reservoir capacity compensation mechanism, thereby improving the flood control benefits of the project, filling the application gap of existing pre-discharge scheduling technology in water networks, and giving full play to the comprehensive role of water network projects.

[0040] 2. The present invention couples multivariate forecast information and its uncertainty (i.e., multivariate forecast error probability distribution information) to construct a risk quantification method for multiple risk events brought by forecast uncertainty to water network projects, including reservoir flood control risks, downstream flood control risks, and additional water diversion costs. This method can not only fully tap the potential of the project, but also quantitatively measure the impact of scheduling decisions, thereby improving the scientificity and accuracy of the actual scheduling operation of the water network project.

[0041] Therefore, the present invention can improve the flood control benefits of water network connection projects. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0042] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying any creative work.

[0043] Figure 1 A flow chart of the pre-discharge scheduling method for inter-basin water network connection projects provided by the present invention;

[0044] Figure 2 A flowchart of a method for pre-discharge scheduling of a cross-basin water network connection project provided by a specific embodiment of the present invention;

[0045] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the specific process of the reservoir flood control risk quantification method provided by the present invention;

[0046] Figure 4 A schematic diagram of downstream flood control risks provided by the present invention;

[0047] Figure 5 A schematic diagram of the additional water diversion provided by the present invention;

[0048] Figure 6 This is a module diagram of the pre-discharge scheduling system for the inter-basin water network connection project provided by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0049] The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative efforts are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0050] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method, system, equipment and medium for pre-discharge scheduling of inter-basin water network connection projects, so as to improve the flood control benefits of water network connection projects.

[0051] In order to make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and easy to understand, the present invention is further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0052] Example 1

[0053] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of the pre-discharge scheduling method for the inter-basin water network connection project provided by the present invention. Figure 2 This is a flow chart of a method for pre-discharge scheduling of inter-basin water network connection projects provided by a specific embodiment of the present invention. Figure 1 and Figure 2 As shown, the pre-discharge scheduling method for the inter-basin water network connection project provided by the present invention includes:

[0054] Step 101: Acquire multivariate forecast information for inter-basin water network connectivity projects; the multivariate forecast information includes: a flood forecast plan for the receiving reservoir, a water withdrawal forecast plan for the receiving reservoir, a flood forecast plan for the area between the receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object, and rainfall forecast information issued by the meteorological center.

[0055] Step 102: Determine multivariate forecast error probability distribution information based on the multivariate forecast information; the multivariate forecast error probability distribution information includes: flood forecast error probability distribution of the receiving reservoir, rainfall forecast probability distribution of the receiving reservoir, water withdrawal forecast error probability distribution of the receiving reservoir, and flood forecast error probability distribution between the receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object.

[0056] The step 102 specifically includes:

[0057] Step 102.1: Using a maximum entropy model, determine the flood forecast error probability distribution of the receiving reservoir, the water withdrawal forecast error probability distribution of the receiving reservoir, and the flood forecast error probability distribution between the receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object based on the flood forecast scheme of the receiving reservoir, the water withdrawal forecast scheme of the receiving reservoir, and the flood forecast scheme between the receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object.

[0058] Step 102.2: Using a P-III distribution function, based on the rainfall forecast information released by the meteorological center, determine the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the receiving reservoir.

[0059] In practical applications, the flood forecast error e is analyzed based on the historical flood forecast process and the actual flood forecast process in this basin, and the maximum entropy model is used to analyze the probability distribution function f of the flood forecast error. E(e) The same method is used to calculate the probability distribution function of the receding water forecast error and the probability distribution function of the interval flood forecast error. The meteorological rainfall forecast information for the next 24 hours (48 hours) is divided into different levels (level k) according to the amount of rainfall: no rain, light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain, and torrential rain. Based on historical observed rainfall and forecast rainfall data, the accuracy, underreporting rate, and false alarm rate of different rainfall forecast levels are analyzed. The actual rainfall probability distribution for different forecast rainfall levels is then derived, which can be described by the P-III distribution function.

[0060] Step 103: A multi-objective hedging model for pre-discharge scheduling of inter-basin water network interconnection projects is constructed based on the multivariate forecast error probability distribution information. The multi-objective hedging model includes a quantification function for reservoir flood control risk, a quantification function for downstream flood control risk, and a quantification function for additional water diversion costs. Correspondingly, the objectives of the multi-objective hedging model include reservoir flood control risk, downstream flood control risk, and water diversion costs (i.e., additional water diversion costs) in the event of a false alarm.

[0061] The step 103 specifically includes:

[0062] Step 103.1: Determine a reservoir flood control risk quantification function based on the flood forecast error probability distribution of the receiving reservoir and the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the receiving reservoir.

[0063] Specifically, a full probability risk quantification method is adopted to determine a reservoir flood control risk quantification function according to the flood forecast error probability distribution of the receiving reservoir and the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the receiving reservoir.

[0064] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the specific process of the reservoir flood control risk quantification method provided by the present invention. Figure 3 As shown in Figure 2, in practical applications, the full probability risk quantification method considering qualitative rainfall forecast uncertainty and quantitative flood forecast error is described as follows:

[0065] During the pre-discharge phase, the reservoir may encounter different inflow flood forecast errors, corresponding to different water levels Z at the end of pre-discharge. i (This is also the water level for the next flood); During the flood regulation phase, starting with a certain water level, you may encounter rainfall of different frequencies X (P c ), which may cause the reservoir flood regulation high water level to exceed the original design flood regulation high water level Z m , a risk event occurs. The main analysis steps are as follows:

[0066] Step (1): Determine the water level distribution after the pre-discharge is completed based on the flood forecast error probability distribution of the receiving reservoir, specifically including:

[0067] Step (a): Based on the flood forecast distribution function f calculated in step 102.1 E (e), divide the error into n discrete intervals within the error threshold, and calculate the error in different intervals (Δe i ) occurs, as shown in the following formula:

[0068]

[0069] Where i represents the i-th error.

[0070] Step (b): In a certain pre-discharge decision (i.e. pre-discharge scheduling plan) Q out Under the condition of discretization, the inflow flood forecast error e i and water balance relationship, calculate the forecast error e i Water level Z i , the formula is as follows:

[0071]

[0072] Z i =G(V i )

[0073] In the formula, V0 represents the storage capacity during pre-discharge, V i represents the forecast error e i The corresponding storage capacity, represents the forecast inflow during the pre-discharge period, Δt represents the time corresponding to the pre-discharge period (in seconds), and G() represents the function of the relationship between reservoir capacity and water level.

[0074] Step (2): Determine the flood process lines formed by rainfall at different frequencies based on the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the receiving reservoir, specifically including:

[0075] Step (c): Calculate the probability of rainfall at each frequency (i.e., rainfall probability) P according to the probability distribution function of the next 24h (48h) rainfall forecast level k calculated in step 102.1. c,i (The value can be 1%, 0.1%, etc.) corresponding to the rainfall X(P c,i ).

[0076] Step (d): Consider the most unfavorable situation, assuming that the rainfall in the next 24 hours (48 hours) is concentrated in several periods (the most unfavorable situation in historical data), and use the hydrological model to deduce the rainfall X (P c,i ) formed by the flood process line.

[0077] Step (3): determining the reservoir water level process line after regulating the flood based on the water level distribution after the pre-discharge and the flood process line, specifically comprising:

[0078] Step (e): Based on the existing flood control dispatching rules, the water level Z in step (b) is adjusted i Adjust the flood process line obtained in step (d) to obtain the flood forecast error e i Under different frequency rainfall X(P c,i ) corresponding reservoir water level process line and flood control high water level.

[0079] Step (4): using the total probability method, according to the reservoir water level process line after the flood regulation, determine the reservoir flood control risk quantification function, specifically including:

[0080] Step (f): Repeat steps (c) to (e) to obtain flood forecast e i The relationship diagram between different rainfall frequencies and the highest flood control water level under different conditions. Based on the interpolation of this relationship diagram, the super-characteristic water level Z of the flood control high water level can be obtained. m Risk rate, that is, P{Z[Z i ,X(P c )]>Z m |e i}, where XP c represents the actual rainfall probability distribution of the k-level rainfall forecast, Z[Z i ,X(P c )] indicates that Z i To adjust the water level, adjust the high water level for flood caused by missed rainfall under K-level rainfall forecast.

[0081] Step (g): Repeat steps (b) to (f) above to calculate the risk rate P{Z[Z i ,X(P c )]>Z m |e i-1}.

[0082] Step (h): Calculate the flood control risk P by coupling rainfall forecast uncertainty and flood forecast error using the full probability method. ZFR (Z i ,Z m ), the specific formula is as follows:

[0083]

[0084]

[0085]

[0086] In the formula, P{Z[Z i ,X(P c )]>Z m |Δei} represents the flood forecast error e∈[e i-1 ,e i ] conditions, flood control risks caused by rainfall forecast uncertainty.

[0087] Step 103.2: Determine a downstream flood control risk quantification function based on the flood forecast error probability distribution between the receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object.

[0088] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of downstream flood control risks provided by the present invention. Figure 4 As shown in Figure 2, in practical applications, the downstream risk quantification method considering the uncertainty of interval water inflow is described as follows:

[0089] During the pre-discharge phase, the downstream combined flow is derived from the reservoir discharge and the interval forecast water flow. Due to the uncertainty of the interval forecast, the downstream combined flow is also uncertain, which may lead to flood control risks downstream of the pre-discharge process. The risk calculation steps are as follows:

[0090] (1) Calculate the combined water volume Q at the downstream control station based on the continuous variance of river flood evolution down , which is the reservoir discharge volume Q out With the interval water Q qj The sum of

[0091]

[0092] Where, ε qj They represent the interval forecast water inflow and interval forecast error respectively.

[0093] (2) Calculate the combined water volume Q down Exceeding safe water flow rate q an The probability P(Q down >q an ), which is the downstream flood control risk rate after using the forecast information, as shown in the following formula:

[0094]

[0095] Where, h(ε qj ) represents the interval flood forecast probability density function.

[0096] Step 103.3: Determine a quantification function for the additional water diversion cost based on the probability distribution of the water withdrawal forecast error of the receiving reservoir and the probability distribution of the rainfall forecast of the receiving reservoir.

[0097] Figure 5 Schematic diagram of additional water diversion provided by the present invention. Figure 5As shown in the figure, in practical application, the quantification method of additional water diversion is described as follows:

[0098] If a large amount of rainfall is forecast in the next 24 hours (48 hours), the reservoir will begin to pre-discharge. If the forecast fails, the reservoir will use the water from the withdrawal and subsequent rainfall to recharge. However, if the withdrawal and subsequent rainfall are too small, it will be difficult to recharge the reservoir to the pre-discharge level, and additional water diversion will be required. The calculation steps are as follows:

[0099] (1) Additional water diversion volume W imp The target water storage capacity of the reservoir is the difference between the amount of water that can be recharged, and the target water storage capacity is the pre-discharge capacity of the reservoir W. out The amount of rechargeable water includes the expected value of the amount of rechargeable water that can be stored after the reservoir is drained. When a certain rainfall forecast is level k, the actual water inflow may be The sum is calculated as follows:

[0100]

[0101] (2) Calculate the expected value of the amount of water that can be restored after the reservoir is drained The remaining water volume after meeting the minimum water demand of the downstream is the recyclable water volume, as shown in the following formula:

[0102]

[0103] Where, represents the expected value of the total amount of water withdrawal forecast, which is determined based on the water withdrawal forecast error distribution function derived in step 102.1; Q min represents the minimum discharge requirement, which is to meet the water supply, environmental and other water requirements of the reservoir downstream; Δt represents the calculation period; T tui Indicates that the current traffic volume is returned to Q min The number of time periods.

[0104] (3) Calculate the amount of water entering the reservoir due to possible future rainfall, F[X(P c,i )] can be calculated according to the method in step (d) above:

[0105]

[0106] (4) Calculate the additional water diversion cost C based on the additional water volume imp

[0107] C imp =Y(W imp )

[0108] Where Y() represents the function of converting additional water diversion into cost, W imp Indicates additional water diversion.

[0109] Step 104: Determine flood control benefit information for the proposed pre-discharge scheduling scheme based on the multi-objective hedging model. The flood control benefit information includes the reservoir flood control risk rate, downstream flood control risk rate, and additional water diversion costs. Specifically, the proposed pre-discharge scheduling scheme is a discrete set of pre-discharge flow schemes obtained under different water inflow levels, different forecast information conditions, and within the pre-discharge flow range.

[0110] Step 105: Determine the pre-discharge scheduling scheme to be selected whose flood control benefit information meets the set conditions as the optimal scheduling scheme.

[0111] The step 105 specifically includes:

[0112] Step 105.1: Determine the selected pre-discharge scheduling scheme whose flood control benefit information satisfies set constraints as the target pre-discharge scheduling scheme. The set constraints include: water balance constraint, reservoir capacity constraint, discharge flow constraint, acceptable water diversion cost constraint, reservoir acceptable risk constraint, and downstream acceptable risk constraint.

[0113] In practical applications, the above constraints are specifically described as follows:

[0114] a. Water balance constraints and reservoir capacity constraints:

[0115] V t+1 =V t +(Q in -Q out )Δt

[0116] Where V t+1 represents the storage capacity at time t+1, V t represents the storage capacity at time t.

[0117] b. Discharge flow restriction:

[0118] Q min ≤Q out ≤Q max

[0119] The above formula indicates that the reservoir discharge needs to meet the downstream minimum discharge requirement Q min , and at the same time cannot exceed the reservoir discharge capacity Q max .

[0120] c. Downstream acceptable risk constraints:

[0121] P(Q down >q an )≤r a

[0122] The above formula indicates that the downstream flood control risk rate must be within the design standard range, that is, it cannot exceed r a .

[0123] d. Reservoir acceptable risk constraints:

[0124] P ZFR (Z i ,Z m )≤r b

[0125] The above formula indicates that the reservoir flood regulation high water level exceeds the design flood level Z m The probability cannot exceed r b .

[0126] e. Acceptable water diversion cost constraints:

[0127] C imp ≤C0

[0128] The above formula indicates that the maximum cost of additional water diversion that the receiving reservoir can accept is C0.

[0129] Step 105.2: Determine a quantitative value of the flood control benefit of the target pre-discharge scheduling scheme based on the flood control benefit information.

[0130] Step 105.3: Determine the target pre-discharge scheduling scheme whose flood control benefit quantification value satisfies the set target conditions as the optimal scheduling scheme; the set conditions include: the set constraint conditions and the set target conditions.

[0131] The quantified flood control benefit value includes the weighted sum of the reservoir flood control risk rate, the downstream flood control risk rate, and the additional water diversion cost; and the target condition includes minimizing the weighted sum. Alternatively, the quantified flood control benefit value includes the marginal value between the reservoir flood control risk rate, the downstream flood control risk rate, and the additional water diversion cost; and the target condition includes maximizing the marginal value.

[0132] Therefore, the target pre-discharge scheduling scheme whose flood control benefit quantified value meets the set target conditions is determined as the optimal scheduling scheme, specifically: calculating the weighted sum of the reservoir flood control risk rate, the downstream flood control risk rate and the additional water diversion cost of each target pre-discharge scheduling scheme, and determining the target pre-discharge scheduling scheme with the smallest weighted sum as the optimal scheduling scheme; or calculating the marginal value between the reservoir flood control risk rate, the downstream flood control risk rate and the additional water diversion cost of each target pre-discharge scheduling scheme, and determining the target pre-discharge scheduling scheme with the largest marginal value as the optimal scheduling scheme.

[0133] As a specific implementation, when calculating the weighted sum, the weights corresponding to the above three objectives can be determined based on the decision maker's preference for each objective.

[0134] Step 106: Use the optimal scheduling solution to perform pre-discharge flow scheduling on the inter-basin water network connection project.

[0135] Example 2

[0136] In order to execute the method corresponding to the above-mentioned embodiment 1 and achieve the corresponding functions and technical effects, a pre-discharge scheduling system for inter-basin water network connection projects is provided below. Figure 6 This is a module diagram of the pre-discharge scheduling system for the inter-basin water network connection project provided by the present invention. Figure 6 As shown, the system includes:

[0137] The multivariate forecast information acquisition module 601 is used to obtain multivariate forecast information of the inter-basin water network connection project; the multivariate forecast information includes: the flood forecast plan of the receiving reservoir, the water withdrawal forecast plan of the receiving reservoir, the flood forecast plan between the receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object, and the rainfall forecast information released by the meteorological center.

[0138] The multivariate forecast error probability distribution information determination module 602 is used to determine the multivariate forecast error probability distribution information based on the multivariate forecast information; the multivariate forecast error probability distribution information includes: the flood forecast error probability distribution of the receiving reservoir, the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the receiving reservoir, the water withdrawal forecast error probability distribution of the receiving reservoir, and the flood forecast error probability distribution between the receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object.

[0139] The multi-objective hedging model construction module 603 is used to construct a multi-objective hedging model for pre-discharge scheduling of cross-basin water network connection projects based on the multivariate forecast error probability distribution information; the multi-objective hedging model includes: a reservoir flood control risk quantification function, a downstream flood control risk quantification function and an additional water diversion cost quantification function.

[0140] The flood control benefit information determination module 604 is used to determine the flood control benefit information of the pre-discharge scheduling scheme to be selected based on the multi-objective hedging model; the flood control benefit information includes: reservoir flood control risk rate, downstream flood control risk rate and additional water diversion cost.

[0141] The optimal scheduling scheme determining module 605 is configured to determine the pre-discharge scheduling scheme to be selected whose flood control benefit information meets the set conditions as the optimal scheduling scheme.

[0142] The pre-discharge flow scheduling module 606 is used to perform pre-discharge flow scheduling on the inter-basin water network connection project using the optimal scheduling solution.

[0143] Example 3

[0144] An embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, including a memory and a processor, wherein the memory is used to store a computer program, and the processor runs the computer program to enable the electronic device to execute the pre-discharge scheduling method for the inter-basin water network connection project described in Example 1.

[0145] Optionally, the above-mentioned electronic device may be a server.

[0146] In addition, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the method for pre-discharge scheduling of the inter-basin water network connection project described in the first embodiment is implemented.

[0147] The present invention provides a pre-discharge scheduling method, system, equipment and medium for inter-basin water network connection projects, which can couple multivariate forecast information including qualitative rainfall forecast and quantitative flood forecast and its uncertainty, quantify the flood control risks and water diversion costs brought about by the uncertainty of forecast information, and weigh the multi-objective competition transformation relationship in the flood control benefit improvement technology based on pre-discharge scheduling, thereby improving the flood control benefit of water network projects without increasing the water diversion cost.

[0148] The various embodiments in this specification are described in a progressive manner, with each embodiment focusing on the differences from other embodiments. Reference can be made to the common and similar parts between the various embodiments. For the systems disclosed in the embodiments, since they correspond to the methods disclosed in the embodiments, the description is relatively simple, and the relevant parts can be referred to the method description.

[0149] This document uses specific examples to illustrate the principles and implementation methods of the present invention. The above examples are only intended to help understand the core concept of the present invention. At the same time, those skilled in the art will find that the specific implementation methods and application scopes may vary based on the concept of the present invention. In summary, the contents of this specification should not be construed as limiting the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for pre-discharge scheduling of inter-basin water network connection projects, characterized in that: The method comprises: Obtaining multivariate forecast information for inter-basin water network interconnection projects; the multivariate forecast information includes: flood forecast plans for receiving reservoirs, water drawdown forecast plans for receiving reservoirs, flood forecast plans for the interval between receiving reservoirs and downstream protected areas, and rainfall forecast information issued by meteorological centers; Determining multivariate forecast error probability distribution information based on the multivariate forecast information; the multivariate forecast error probability distribution information includes: flood forecast error probability distribution of the receiving reservoir, rainfall forecast probability distribution of the receiving reservoir, water withdrawal forecast error probability distribution of the receiving reservoir, and flood forecast error probability distribution between the receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object; A multi-objective hedging model for pre-discharge scheduling of inter-basin water network interconnection projects is constructed based on the multivariate forecast error probability distribution information; the multi-objective hedging model includes: a reservoir flood control risk quantification function, a downstream flood control risk quantification function, and an additional water diversion cost quantification function; A multi-objective hedging model for pre-discharge scheduling of inter-basin water network interconnection projects is constructed based on the multivariate forecast error probability distribution information, specifically including: Step (1): Determine the water level distribution after the pre-discharge is completed based on the flood forecast error probability distribution of the receiving reservoir, specifically including: Step (a): Based on the flood forecast distribution function, the error is divided into n discrete intervals within the error threshold, and the probability of error occurrence in different intervals is calculated; Step (b): Under any pre-discharge decision, the water level under the forecast error is calculated based on the discretized inflow flood forecast error and the water balance relationship; Step (2): determining flood process lines formed by rainfall at different frequencies according to the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the receiving reservoir; Step (3): determining the reservoir water level process line after regulating the flood according to the water level distribution after the pre-discharge and the flood process line; Step (4): using the total probability method, according to the reservoir water level process line after the flood regulation, determine the reservoir flood control risk quantification function, specifically including: Step (f): Repeat steps (2) to (3) above to obtain a relationship diagram between different rainfall frequencies and the highest flood control water level under flood forecast errors, and interpolate the relationship diagram to obtain the risk rate of the flood control high water level exceeding the characteristic water level; Step (g): Repeat steps (b) to (f) above to calculate the risk rate of encountering different rainfall forecast errors under all discrete flood forecast errors; Step (h): Calculate the flood control risk by coupling rainfall forecast uncertainty and flood forecast error using the full probability method; Determining the downstream flood control risk quantification function based on the flood forecast error probability distribution between the receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object; Determining flood control benefit information of a pre-discharge scheduling scheme to be selected based on the multi-objective hedging model; the flood control benefit information includes: a reservoir flood control risk rate, a downstream flood control risk rate, and additional water diversion costs; Determine the selected pre-discharge scheduling scheme whose flood control benefit information meets the set conditions as the optimal scheduling scheme; The optimal scheduling scheme is used to perform pre-discharge flow scheduling on the inter-basin water network connection project.

2. The method for pre-discharge scheduling of inter-basin water network connection projects according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Determining the selected pre-discharge scheduling scheme whose flood control benefit information meets the set conditions as the optimal scheduling scheme specifically includes: determining the selected pre-discharge scheduling scheme whose flood control benefit information satisfies set constraints as the target pre-discharge scheduling scheme; the set constraints include: water balance constraint, reservoir capacity constraint, discharge flow constraint, acceptable water diversion cost constraint, reservoir acceptable risk constraint, and downstream acceptable risk constraint; Determining a quantitative value of the flood control benefit of the target pre-discharge scheduling scheme according to the flood control benefit information; The target pre-discharge scheduling scheme whose flood control benefit quantification value meets the set target conditions is determined as the optimal scheduling scheme; the set conditions include: the set constraint conditions and the set target conditions.

3. The method for pre-discharge scheduling of inter-basin water network connection projects according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The quantitative value of flood control benefits includes: a weighted sum of the reservoir flood control risk rate, the downstream flood control risk rate and the additional water diversion cost; and the target setting condition includes: minimizing the weighted sum.

4. The method for pre-discharge scheduling of inter-basin water network connection projects according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The quantitative value of flood control benefits includes: the marginal value between the reservoir flood control risk rate, the downstream flood control risk rate and the additional water diversion cost; the target setting condition includes: the marginal value is maximized.

5. The method for pre-discharge scheduling of inter-basin water network connection projects according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The multi-objective hedging model for pre-discharge scheduling of inter-basin water network connection projects is constructed based on the multivariate forecast error probability distribution information, specifically including: Determining a reservoir flood control risk quantification function based on a flood forecast error probability distribution of the receiving reservoir and a rainfall forecast probability distribution of the receiving reservoir; Determining a downstream flood control risk quantification function based on a flood forecast error probability distribution between the receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object; The additional water diversion cost quantification function is determined according to the error probability distribution of the water withdrawal forecast of the receiving reservoir and the probability distribution of the rainfall forecast of the receiving reservoir.

6. The method for pre-discharge scheduling of inter-basin water network connection projects according to claim 5 is characterized in that: A full probability risk quantification method is adopted to determine a reservoir flood control risk quantification function according to the flood forecast error probability distribution of the receiving reservoir and the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the receiving reservoir.

7. The method for pre-discharge scheduling of inter-basin water network connection projects according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Determining the multivariate forecast error probability distribution information based on the multivariate forecast information specifically includes: Using a maximum entropy model, based on the flood forecast scheme of the receiving reservoir, the water withdrawal forecast scheme of the receiving reservoir, and the flood forecast scheme between the receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object, determine the flood forecast error probability distribution of the receiving reservoir, the water withdrawal forecast error probability distribution of the receiving reservoir, and the flood forecast error probability distribution between the receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object; A P-III distribution function is used to determine the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the receiving reservoir based on the rainfall forecast information released by the meteorological center.

8. A pre-discharge scheduling system for inter-basin water network connection projects, characterized in that: The system comprises: A multivariate forecast information acquisition module is used to obtain multivariate forecast information for inter-basin water network interconnection projects; the multivariate forecast information includes: flood forecast plans for receiving reservoirs, water withdrawal forecast plans for receiving reservoirs, flood forecast plans for the area between receiving reservoirs and downstream protection objects, and rainfall forecast information issued by the meteorological center; a multivariate forecast error probability distribution information determination module, configured to determine multivariate forecast error probability distribution information based on the multivariate forecast information; the multivariate forecast error probability distribution information comprising: a flood forecast error probability distribution of a receiving reservoir, a rainfall forecast probability distribution of a receiving reservoir, a water withdrawal forecast error probability distribution of a receiving reservoir, and a flood forecast error probability distribution between a receiving reservoir and a downstream protected object; A multi-objective hedging model construction module is used to construct a multi-objective hedging model for pre-discharge scheduling of inter-basin water network interconnection projects based on the multivariate forecast error probability distribution information; the multi-objective hedging model includes: a reservoir flood control risk quantification function, a downstream flood control risk quantification function, and an additional water diversion cost quantification function; A multi-objective hedging model for pre-discharge scheduling of inter-basin water network interconnection projects is constructed based on the multivariate forecast error probability distribution information, specifically including: Step (1): Determine the water level distribution after the pre-discharge is completed based on the flood forecast error probability distribution of the receiving reservoir, specifically including: Step (a): Based on the flood forecast distribution function, the error is divided into n discrete intervals within the error threshold, and the probability of error occurrence in different intervals is calculated; Step (b): Under any pre-discharge decision, the water level under the forecast error is calculated based on the discretized inflow flood forecast error and the water balance relationship; Step (2): determining flood process lines formed by rainfall at different frequencies according to the rainfall forecast probability distribution of the receiving reservoir; Step (3): determining the reservoir water level process line after regulating the flood according to the water level distribution after the pre-discharge and the flood process line; Step (4): using the total probability method, according to the reservoir water level process line after the flood regulation, determine the reservoir flood control risk quantification function, specifically including: Step (f): Repeat steps (2) to (3) above to obtain a relationship diagram between different rainfall frequencies and the highest flood control water level under flood forecast errors, and interpolate the relationship diagram to obtain the risk rate of the flood control high water level exceeding the characteristic water level; Step (g): Repeat steps (b) to (f) above to calculate the risk rate of encountering different rainfall forecast errors under all discrete flood forecast errors; Step (h): Calculate the flood control risk by coupling rainfall forecast uncertainty and flood forecast error using the full probability method; Determining the downstream flood control risk quantification function based on the flood forecast error probability distribution between the receiving reservoir and the downstream protection object; a flood control benefit information determination module, configured to determine the flood control benefit information of the pre-discharge scheduling scheme to be selected based on the multi-objective hedging model; the flood control benefit information includes: a reservoir flood control risk rate, a downstream flood control risk rate, and additional water diversion costs; An optimal scheduling scheme determination module is used to determine the pre-discharge scheduling scheme to be selected whose flood control benefit information meets the set conditions as the optimal scheduling scheme; The pre-discharge flow scheduling module is used to perform pre-discharge flow scheduling on the inter-basin water network connection project using the optimal scheduling solution.

9. An electronic device, characterized in that: The electronic device comprises a memory and a processor, wherein the memory is used to store a computer program, and the processor runs the computer program to enable the electronic device to execute the pre-discharge scheduling method for the inter-basin water network connection project according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that It stores a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, implements the pre-discharge scheduling method for the inter-basin water network connection project as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

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