A method for predicting the reliability of a ship's full mission profile based on behavioral simulation

Abstract

This invention relates to a method for predicting the reliability of a ship's full mission profile based on behavioral simulation, belonging to the field of ship design and manufacturing technology. The invention establishes a behavioral model based on the operating modes of system equipment within a typical ship mission profile; constructs a system equipment behavior matrix based on the behavioral model; constructs a joint matrix of system equipment behavior and reliability based on a general quality parameter model of the system equipment; defines fault criteria for different mission stages of the mission profile based on a reliability block diagram model; and constructs a Monte Carlo simulation framework based on the joint matrix of behavior and reliability. This invention, when predicting mission reliability, comprehensively considers general quality characteristics such as equipment reliability, maintainability, and supportability, which is more consistent with actual ship usage and results in higher accuracy. It can simultaneously reflect the behavioral and reliability characteristics of system equipment, digitizing complex features; and it can solve the problem of long-cycle, full-mission profile mission reliability prediction.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to a method for predicting the reliability of a ship's full mission profile based on behavioral simulation, belonging to the field of ship design and manufacturing technology. Background Technology

[0002] Currently, equipment mission reliability prediction is mainly based on reliability block diagram-based methods. However, due to the complexity of ship systems, the large number of devices, the diversity of missions, and the long mission cycles, these reliability block diagram-based methods have certain limitations in naval equipment applications. Firstly, the complex structure and functional coupling of systems within naval equipment make it difficult to establish accurate mission reliability models using traditional methods, resulting in predicted full-cycle mission reliability that significantly deviates from actual application scenarios. Secondly, existing mission reliability prediction methods are primarily used in the aerospace field. Naval equipment differs from aerospace equipment, where maintenance is largely impossible during missions due to mission modes, environment, space, and resource constraints. Naval equipment crews have the responsibility of both using and maintaining equipment during missions, allowing for extensive low-level maintenance activities. This significantly improves mission reliability in typical mission profiles compared to mission-less application modes. However, existing mission reliability prediction methods cannot assess the impact of maintenance factors on system mission reliability and are not suitable for predicting the mission reliability of large naval equipment. Therefore, existing ship mission reliability modeling and prediction methods, which mainly follow aerospace methods, cannot effectively model ship mission reliability and do not consider the impact of ship maintenance and support capabilities on reliability, thus failing to solve the problem of mission reliability prediction across the entire mission profile. The method of this invention constructs a joint model based on ship and equipment reliability, maintainability, and supportability parameters, which can accurately reflect the equipment reliability status and demonstrate the impact of time parameters on mission reliability based on behavioral processes. Summary of the Invention

[0003] The purpose of this invention is to address the technical problem that existing ship mission reliability modeling and prediction methods, which mainly follow those from the aerospace field, cannot effectively conduct ship mission reliability modeling and do not consider the impact of ship maintenance and support capabilities on its reliability, thus failing to solve the technical problem of predicting mission reliability across the entire mission profile of ships.

[0004] To address the aforementioned problems, the present invention provides a method for predicting the reliability of a ship's full mission profile based on behavioral simulation, comprising the following steps:

[0005] Step 1: Establish a behavioral model based on the working modes of system equipment within a typical ship mission profile; the system behavioral model includes the ship's mission phases and the collaborative workflow of system equipment in each phase; the behavioral model, based on the ship's mission profile, provides the working status of each system equipment.

[0006] Step 2: Construct a system equipment behavior matrix based on the behavior model; Construct a system equipment behavior matrix based on the system equipment behavior model. Each row of the matrix represents the working status of a single device at each moment within the task duration T, and each column represents the working status of all equipment on the ship at time t. The determination of each element of the matrix is ​​based on the equipment behavior state function S(t). If the device needs to work at time t, its behavior state function is assigned a value of 1; if the device does not need to work at time t, its behavior state function is assigned a value of 0.

[0007]

[0008] Step 3: Based on the general quality parameter model of the system equipment, construct the joint matrix of system equipment behavior and reliability; the equipment reliability parameter model includes: equipment failure distribution function, maintenance distribution function, equipment crew-level repair probability and equipment spare parts fulfillment rate; based on the equipment reliability parameter model and behavior state matrix, construct the joint matrix of system equipment behavior and reliability, the form of the joint matrix is ​​consistent with the behavior matrix;

[0009] Step 4: Based on the reliability block diagram model, define the failure criteria for different mission stages in the mission profile; for any time t in the joint matrix, according to its mission requirements, a mission reliability block diagram model can be constructed for that time, and this reliability block diagram model is the reliability criterion for the ship at that time; for the behavior and reliability joint matrix, the relationship between its parameters and traditional block diagrams includes serial model, parallel model, k / n model and combined model.

[0010] Step 5: Construct a Monte Carlo simulation framework based on the joint matrix of behavior and reliability; determine the unit time of simulation and the number of simulations according to the accuracy requirements, fully consider factors such as equipment failure, failure maintainability, and availability of spare parts, and perform reliability prediction simulation based on the unified model of behavior and reliability.

[0011] Preferably, the system equipment behavior state matrix in step 2 has the following form: for a fixed task, the entire ship's system equipment behavior state matrix should be unique.

[0012]

[0013] Preferably, in step 3, the determination of each element in the joint matrix is ​​based on the joint state function U(t) of behavior and reliability. It is defined that at time t, if the device does not need to work, the joint state function is assigned an empty set; at time t, if the device needs to work and is in a fault-free and intact state, the joint state function is 1; and at time t, if the device needs to work but is faulty and cannot work, the joint state function is assigned a value of 0. That is:

[0014]

[0015] Preferably, in step 3, the construction of the joint matrix of equipment behavior and reliability should comprehensively consider equipment reliability, maintainability, and supportability parameters, as well as the equipment's maintenance and spare parts supply capabilities.

[0016] Preferably, in the cascade model of step 4, if for any U i (t)=1(1≤i≤N,i∈N), then the system simulation task is completed. If there is a device U i If (t) = 0 (1 ≤ i ≤ N, i ∈ N), then the simulation task is not completed.

[0017] Preferably, in the parallel model of step 4, if there is device U i If (t) = 1 (1 ≤ i ≤ N, i ∈ N), then the system simulation task is completed. If for any device U i If (t) = 0 (1 ≤ i ≤ N, i ∈ N), then the simulation task is not completed.

[0018] Preferably, in the k / n model of step 4, if If the system completes this simulation task, then the equipment joint matrix is... The simulation task was not completed.

[0019] Preferably, in step 4, the combined model extracts the current task based on the task ratio and randomly selects the device i that may be used for the current task. If the current task is U i If (t) = 1, then the system simulation task is completed; if U in the device joint matrix i If (t) = 0, then the simulation task is not completed.

[0020] Preferably, step 5 involves reliability prediction simulation. For a single simulation, within the entire mission profile period, the ship is considered to have completed its mission within this mission profile only if the simulation mission is completed at all times t.

[0021] Preferably, step 5 involves reliability prediction simulation. For multiple simulations, frequency is used instead of probability. After multiple missions are completed, the number of times the ship completes the mission is counted, and the proportion of the number of simulations to the total number of simulations represents the reliability of the ship's mission.

[0022] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0023] (1) When making mission reliability predictions, this method takes into account general quality characteristics such as equipment reliability, maintainability and supportability, which is more in line with the actual use of ships and has higher accuracy.

[0024] (2) The concept and construction method of the joint matrix of behavior and reliability are proposed in an innovative way, which can simultaneously reflect the behavioral characteristics and reliability characteristics of system equipment and digitize complex characteristics.

[0025] (3) This method can solve the problem of predicting the reliability of long-cycle full-mission profile missions. Attached Figure Description

[0026] Figure 1 A system equipment collaboration process model;

[0027] Figure 2 For equipment reliability model;

[0028] Figure 3 For series reliability block diagram model;

[0029] Figure 4 For parallel reliability block diagram model;

[0030] Figure 5 For k / n reliability block diagram model;

[0031] Figure 6 For the reliability block diagram model of the joint;

[0032] Figure 7 This is a Monte Carlo simulation framework based on the joint matrix of behavior and reliability. Detailed Implementation

[0033] To make the present invention more apparent and understandable, preferred embodiments are described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings:

[0034] like Figure 1-7 As shown, this invention provides a method for predicting the reliability of a ship's full mission profile based on behavioral simulation, including the following steps:

[0035] Step 1: Establish a behavioral model based on the working mode of system equipment within the typical mission profile of a ship.

[0036] The system behavior model includes the ship's mission phases and the collaborative workflow of system equipment in each phase. Based on the ship's mission profile, the behavior model presents the operational status of each system device, and its basic form is as follows: Figure 1 As shown.

[0037] Step 2: Construct a system device behavior matrix based on the behavior model.

[0038] Based on the system equipment behavior model, this department constructs a system equipment behavior matrix. Each row of the matrix represents the working status of a single device at each moment within the mission duration T, and each column represents the working status of all equipment on the ship at time t. The determination of each element of the matrix is ​​based on the equipment behavior state function S(t). It is defined that if a device needs to work at time t, its behavior state function is assigned a value of 1; if a device does not need to work at time t, its behavior state function is assigned a value of 0.

[0039]

[0040] Based on the above definition, the system equipment behavior state matrix can be obtained, which takes the following form. For a fixed task, the ship's system equipment behavior state matrix should be unique.

[0041]

[0042] Step 3: Based on the general quality parameter model of system equipment, construct a joint matrix of system equipment behavior and reliability.

[0043] The equipment reliability parameter model needs to include: equipment failure distribution function, maintenance distribution function, equipment crew-level repair probability, and equipment spare parts availability rate.

[0044] Based on the equipment's reliability parameter model and behavioral state matrix, a joint matrix of system equipment behavior and reliability is constructed. The joint matrix has the same form as the behavior matrix. Each element in the joint matrix is ​​determined based on the joint state function U(t). At time t, if the equipment does not need to operate, the joint state function is assigned an empty set. At time t, if the equipment needs to operate and is in a fault-free and intact state, the joint state function is 1. At time t, if the equipment needs to operate but is faulty and cannot operate, the joint state function is assigned a value of 0.

[0045]

[0046] Constructing a joint matrix of equipment behavior and reliability requires integrating equipment reliability, maintainability, and supportability parameters, taking into account equipment maintenance and spare parts availability. The process for determining the joint matrix of system equipment behavior and reliability is as follows: Figure 2 As shown; the joint matrix of system and device behavior and reliability has the same form as the behavior-state matrix;

[0047] Step 4: Based on the reliability block diagram model, define the failure criteria for different task stages of the task profile.

[0048] For any time t in the joint matrix, a mission reliability block diagram model can be constructed based on the mission requirements at that time. This reliability block diagram model serves as the reliability criterion for the ship at that time. The relationship between the parameters of the behavior-reliability joint matrix and the traditional block diagram is as follows:

[0049] Series model: such as Figure 3 As shown; for the series model, if for any U i (t)=1(1≤i≤N,i∈N), then the system simulation task is completed. If there is a device U i If (t) = 0 (1 ≤ i ≤ N, i ∈ N), then the simulation task is not completed.

[0050] Parallel model: such as Figure 4 As shown; for the parallel model, if there is a device U i If (t) = 1 (1 ≤ i ≤ N, i ∈ N), then the system simulation task is completed. If for any device U i If (t) = 0 (1 ≤ i ≤ N, i ∈ N), then the simulation task is not completed.

[0051] k / n model: such as Figure 5 As shown; for the k / n model, if If the system completes this simulation task, then the equipment joint matrix is... The simulation task was not completed.

[0052] Helian model: such as Figure 6 As shown; for the joint model, the task is extracted according to the task ratio, and the device i that may be used for this task is randomly selected. If the task is U i If (t) = 1, then the system has completed its simulation task. If U in the device joint matrix... i If (t) = 0, then the simulation task is not completed.

[0053] Step 5: Construct a Monte Carlo simulation framework based on the joint matrix of behavior and reliability;

[0054] Based on the accuracy requirements, the unit time and number of simulations are determined. Common quality characteristics such as equipment failure, maintainability, and availability of spare parts are fully considered. Reliability prediction simulations are performed based on a unified behavior and reliability model. The simulation framework is as follows: Figure 7 As shown:

[0055] For a single simulation, within the entire mission profile period, the ship is considered to have completed its mission only if the simulation mission is completed at all times t.

[0056] For multiple simulations, the idea of ​​using frequency instead of probability is adopted. After multiple missions are completed, the number of times the ship completes the mission is counted, and the proportion of the number of times the mission is completed represents the reliability of the ship's mission.

[0057] The core step of this invention is step 3, namely the method for constructing a joint matrix of system equipment behavior and reliability. This step integrates multiple common quality parameters of the ship, such as reliability, maintainability, and supportability, and realizes joint modeling. The constructed matrix can simultaneously reflect the behavioral characteristics and reliability characteristics of the system equipment and digitize the comprehensive characteristics.

[0058] This invention proposes a method for constructing a joint matrix that can reflect the behavioral and reliability characteristics of system equipment; it also proposes a Monte Carlo simulation framework that uses a reliability block diagram as the fault criterion and a joint matrix of behavior and reliability as the model.

[0059] The above description is merely a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention in any form or substance. It should be noted that those skilled in the art can make various improvements and additions without departing from the present invention, and these improvements and additions should also be considered within the scope of protection of the present invention. Any modifications, alterations, and equivalent changes made by those skilled in the art based on the above-disclosed technical content without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention are equivalent embodiments of the present invention. Furthermore, any modifications, alterations, and evolutions made to the above embodiments based on the essential technology of the present invention still fall within the scope of the technical solution of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for ship full mission profile reliability prediction based on behavior simulation, characterized in that, The method comprises the following steps: Step 1: establishing a system behavior model according to the working mode of the system equipment in the typical mission profile of the ship; the system behavior model comprises a mission stage of the ship and a cooperative working process of the system equipment in each stage; the system behavior model gives the working state of each system equipment based on the mission profile of the ship; Step 2: constructing a system equipment behavior matrix based on the system behavior model; each row of the matrix represents the working condition of a single equipment at each time within the mission time T, and each column represents the working state of all the equipment of the ship at the time t; each element of the matrix is determined according to an equipment behavior state function S(t), and the behavior state function is assigned a value of 1 when the equipment needs to work at the time t, and a value of 0 when the equipment does not need to work at the time t, that is: ； Step 3: constructing a system equipment behavior and reliability joint matrix according to the reliability parameter model of the system equipment and the behavior state matrix; the joint matrix is in the same form as the behavior state matrix, wherein the reliability parameter model comprises an equipment failure distribution function, a maintenance distribution function, an equipment crew-level repair probability and an equipment spare parts satisfaction rate; The determination of each element in the joint matrix is based on the joint state function U(t) of behavior and reliability, which is defined as follows: the joint state function is assigned to the null set when the device does not need to work at time t; the joint state function is 1 when the device needs to work at time t and the device is in good condition without failure; the joint state function is assigned to 0 when the device needs to work at time t but the device fails to work, i.e.: ; Step 4: for any time t in the joint matrix, a reliability block diagram model of the time t can be constructed according to the mission requirement, the reliability block diagram model is a reliability criterion of the ship at the time t, and based on the reliability block diagram model, a failure criterion of different mission stages of the mission profile is defined; the parameters of the behavior and reliability joint matrix and the traditional block diagram include a series model, a parallel model, a k / n model and a sum model; Step 5: constructing a Monte Carlo simulation framework based on the behavior and reliability joint matrix; according to the accuracy requirement, the unit time of the simulation is determined, the simulation times are determined, the factors of equipment failure, failure maintainability and failure spare parts satisfaction are fully considered, and the reliability prediction simulation is performed based on the behavior and reliability joint model.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein, The system equipment behavior matrix in step 2; its form is as follows, for fixed tasks, the full-ship system equipment behavior matrix should be unique; .

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the method further comprises: determining a probability of success for each of the plurality of tasks based on the behavior simulation. The behavior and reliability joint matrix is constructed in step 3 by comprehensively considering the reliability, maintainability and supportability parameters of the equipment, considering the maintenance of the equipment and the supply capacity of the spare parts.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the method further comprises: In the step 4 series model, if for any , the system task simulation this time is completed, if there is a device , the simulation task this time is not completed.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the method further comprises: In the step 4 parallel model, if there is a device , then the system task simulation is completed this time, if for any device , then the simulation task is not completed this time.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein the method further comprises: In the step 4k / n model, if , the system task simulation is completed this time, if the device joint matrix , the simulation task is not completed this time.

7. The method according to claim 1, wherein the method is characterized by: The step 4 and the joint model extract the current task according to the task ratio, and randomly select the device i that can be selected for the current task If the current task is completed, the system simulates the system task this time, and if the device joint matrix is If the simulation task is not completed this time.

8. The method for predicting the reliability of a ship's full mission profile based on behavioral simulation according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step 5, for single simulation, only when all the simulation tasks at all times t are completed within the whole mission profile period, it is considered that the ship completes the mission within the mission profile.

9. The method for predicting the reliability of a ship's full mission profile based on behavioral simulation according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step 5, for multiple simulations, frequency is used instead of probability, after multiple missions, the number of times that the ship completes the mission is counted, and the proportion of the number of times to the total simulation times is used to represent the mission reliability of the ship.

Images