A method and device for identifying unfavorable working condition combinations of environmental quantities in water conservancy and hydropower engineering

Abstract

The present application belongs to the technical field of hydraulic safety monitoring, and discloses a method and device for identifying unfavorable working condition combinations of environmental quantities in water conservancy and hydropower engineering, which comprises the following steps: establishing an environmental quantity set with measured data, setting an alarm value for each environmental quantity, and constructing several groups of unfavorable working condition combinations; calculating the unfavorable index of each measurement of each environmental quantity under different unfavorable working condition combination conditions within a preset analysis period; testing the adaptability of the environmental quantity alarm value to obtain a test result; based on the test result, calculating and analyzing the comprehensive unfavorable index of each measurement under different unfavorable working condition combination conditions within the analysis period; comparing the comprehensive unfavorable index of each measurement with a preset unfavorable working condition evaluation criterion, and determining the identification result of the unfavorable working condition combinations of the environmental quantities according to the comparison result.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to a method and device for identifying unfavorable environmental conditions in water conservancy and hydropower projects, belonging to the field of hydraulic engineering safety monitoring technology. Background Technology

[0002] Hydraulic and hydropower projects are crucial national infrastructure, and ensuring their safety is a national strategic requirement. After completion and operation, hydraulic structures exhibit various behaviors such as deformation, displacement, seepage, and changes in internal stress and strain under varying environmental conditions including water level, temperature, and rainfall. To accurately analyze and evaluate the operational status of these structures and monitor project safety, it is essential not only to comprehensively capture their behavioral responses during operation but also to promptly grasp changes in environmental parameters and combinations of unfavorable operating conditions. Close monitoring of abnormal signs caused by structural variations due to external environmental forces is crucial to prevent or avoid major accidents.

[0003] Industry-specific safety monitoring technical specifications clearly require safety monitoring of environmental quantities in water conservancy and hydropower projects. However, existing technologies for analyzing environmental monitoring data still primarily focus on individual environmental quantities, emphasizing the understanding of their value levels and basic patterns. They lack clear technical guidance on analyzing combinations of unfavorable environmental conditions. In practice, a common practice is to manually select a time when a particular environmental quantity approaches or reaches a warning value as a benchmark, comparing it with other environmental quantities within similar time periods to determine if they also approach or reach their warning values. This approach relies too heavily on manual experience and superficial data comparison methods. It struggles to accurately quantify and deeply analyze the adverse effects of multiple environmental quantities combined, exhibiting weak analytical capabilities, low automation, and unsuitability for simultaneously assessing multiple unfavorable combinations. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The purpose of this invention is to overcome the shortcomings of the prior art and provide a method and device for identifying unfavorable combinations of environmental conditions in water conservancy and hydropower projects, so as to accurately identify unfavorable combinations of environmental conditions in water conservancy and hydropower projects and effectively prevent risks.

[0005] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention employs the following technical solution:

[0006] In a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for identifying unfavorable combinations of environmental conditions in water conservancy and hydropower projects, comprising the following steps:

[0007] Establish a set of environmental quantities with measured data, and set upper and lower warning limits for each environmental quantity;

[0008] Based on the set of environmental parameters, construct several sets of unfavorable operating condition combinations;

[0009] Calculate the adverse index of each environmental quantity measured under different adverse working condition combinations within the preset analysis period;

[0010] The adaptability of environmental quantity warning values ​​is verified, and the verification results are obtained.

[0011] Based on the test results, the comprehensive adverse index of each test under different combinations of adverse working conditions was calculated during the analysis period.

[0012] The comprehensive adverse index of each measurement is compared with the preset adverse working condition assessment criteria, and the environmental adverse working condition combination identification result is determined based on the comparison results.

[0013] This invention constructs multiple operating condition combinations that support the multidirectional adverse effects of multiple environmental quantities, adapting to different engineering projects with different environmental quantity monitoring items, and meeting the requirements for simultaneous evaluation when a single project may have multiple sets of adverse operating condition combinations, especially when the adverse effects of the same environmental quantity differ between combinations.

[0014] Furthermore, constructing several sets of adverse operating condition combinations includes: introducing all environmental quantities participating in the identification of adverse operating condition combinations from the set of environmental quantities, and setting the adverse impact strategy and weight value adopted by the environmental quantities when participating in the identification of different adverse operating condition combinations.

[0015] Furthermore, the formula for calculating the adverse index is as follows:

[0016] When the adverse impact strategy for environmental quantities is set to high alert, the formula for calculating the adverse index is:

[0017] ,

[0018] When the adverse impact strategy for environmental quantities is set to low alert, the formula for calculating the adverse index is:

[0019] ,

[0020] In the formula, To analyze the first period of time i The environmental quantity j The adverse index for each test, For the first i The upper limit of the warning value for an environmental quantity. For the first i The lower limit of the warning value for each environmental quantity. For the first i The environmental quantity in the first j The measured values ​​of each test. n The total number of environmental quantities involved in identifying this group of adverse working condition combinations. m To analyze the total number of measurements of environmental quantity combinations within a given time period; when At that time, take .

[0021] This invention adopts different comprehensive calculation strategies based on the test results, providing a scientific, comprehensive, flexible, and reasonable automated auxiliary identification method for judging the adverse combination of environmental quantities in water conservancy and hydropower projects. It accurately grasps the comprehensive adverse impact of environmental quantity combinations on structures and effectively prevents risks.

[0022] Furthermore, the formula for calculating the comprehensive adverse index is as follows:

[0023] ,

[0024] In the formula, To analyze the first period of time j The overall adverse index for each test, This is the probability adjustment coefficient. To analyze the first period of time j The probability of unfavorable outcomes in each test. To analyze the first period of time i The environmental quantity j The adverse index for each test, For the first i The weight values ​​of each environmental quantity;

[0025] The probability adjustment coefficient is 0.5 when one or more of the environmental quantities involved in the identification of this adverse working condition combination fail the warning value fit test; and 0 when all environmental quantities involved in the identification of this adverse working condition combination pass the warning value fit test.

[0026] Furthermore, the formula for calculating the probability disadvantage index is as follows:

[0027] ，

[0028] in, To analyze the first period of time j The probability of unfavorable outcomes in each test. For reference periods, the adverse effects of each environmental quantity in a particular measurement for identifying adverse working condition combinations are no less than those in the analysis period. j When considering the impact of a single test, the duration of that adverse effect; L For reference, the adverse effects of each environmental quantity during the period should not be lower than those during the analysis period. j The cumulative number of times the impact of each measurement occurs; T This refers to the total duration of the reference period.

[0029] Furthermore, the adaptability of environmental quantity warning values ​​is tested, including:

[0030] 1) Divide the range of the upper and lower warning limits for each environmental quantity into several equal intervals, count the distribution of measured data for each environmental quantity in each interval during the reference period, and form a new array from the data counts in each interval. ， Calculate the standard deviation and mean of the new array, and the... i Erraticity coefficient of an environmental quantity:

[0031] 2) Calculate and statistically analyze the mean, standard deviation, and first-order average of each environmental quantity within the reference time period's original measured data sequence. i Median coefficient of an environmental quantity:

[0032] 3) When the first i The ergodicity coefficient of an environmental quantity is not greater than the distribution uniformity parameter, or the ergodicity coefficient of the first environmental quantity is not greater than the distribution uniformity parameter. i When the median coefficient of an environmental quantity is not greater than the mean fit parameter, the warning value of that environmental quantity is deemed to have passed the fit test.

[0033] The reference period starts from the time the project is running normally and ends at the start time of the preset analysis period. The distribution uniformity parameter and the mean fit parameter are both constants.

[0034] Furthermore, the first i The formula for calculating the ergodicity coefficient of an environmental quantity is:

[0035]

[0036] In the formula, For the first i Erraticity coefficient of an environmental quantity and For the first i The mean and standard deviation of a new array composed of environmental quantities;

[0037] And / or, the first i The formula for calculating the median coefficient of an environmental quantity is:

[0038]

[0039] In the formula, For the first i Median coefficient of an environmental quantity and For the first i The mean and standard deviation of the original measurement sequence of each environmental quantity within the reference period. For the first i The upper limit of the warning value for an environmental quantity. For the first i The lower limit of the warning value for each environmental quantity.

[0040] Furthermore, the preset adverse working condition assessment criteria include setting a preset level of comprehensive adverse index range and a preset level of adverseness, wherein the preset level of adverseness includes the degree of harm to the safety and durability of hydraulic structures.

[0041] Furthermore, based on the comparison results, the identification results of unfavorable environmental condition combinations include:

[0042] The comprehensive adverse index of each measurement in the analysis period is sequentially traversed to see if it falls within the preset level of comprehensive adverse index range, thereby obtaining the combination of all environmental adverse working conditions that exist within the analysis period. The identification results of the combination of environmental adverse working conditions include the combination situation, adverse nature, and adverse degree. The adverse nature includes warning values ​​or actual operating conditions as the main standards, providing an effective basis for engineering managers to accurately understand the adverse impact, predict the possible changes and development trends of the building's safety status in advance, and formulate subsequent disposal measures.

[0043] Secondly, the present invention also provides a device for identifying combinations of unfavorable environmental conditions in water conservancy and hydropower projects, the device comprising:

[0044] Setting module: Used to establish a set of environmental quantities with measured data, set upper and lower warning values ​​for each environmental quantity, construct several sets of unfavorable working condition combinations, and set preset analysis periods and unfavorable working condition evaluation criteria;

[0045] Inspection module: Used to inspect the adaptability of environmental quantity warning values;

[0046] Calculation module: Calculates the adverse index of each environmental quantity for each measurement under different adverse working condition combinations within a preset analysis period; based on the test results, calculates the comprehensive adverse index of each measurement under different adverse working condition combinations within the analysis period;

[0047] Analysis module: Compares the comprehensive adverse index of each measurement with the preset adverse working condition assessment criteria, and determines the environmental adverse working condition combination identification result based on the comparison results.

[0048] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects achieved by the present invention include:

[0049] This invention provides a method for identifying unfavorable environmental condition combinations in water conservancy and hydropower projects. Based on a set of environmental quantities, several sets of unfavorable condition combinations are constructed. Considering the flexible selection of the environmental quantity set and the free switching of the adverse effects of individual environmental quantities, a personalized and convenient configuration mode is constructed that supports multiple environmental quantities with multi-directional adverse effects and multiple condition combinations. This adapts to the situation where different environmental quantity monitoring items are set in different projects, and meets the requirement of simultaneous evaluation when a single project may have multiple sets of unfavorable condition combinations, especially when the adverse effects of the same environmental quantity are different between combinations.

[0050] This invention sets warning values ​​for each environmental quantity, specifically based on design values ​​or historical hydrological and meteorological data of the project location. By verifying the adaptability of the environmental quantity warning values, it quantitatively assesses the difference between the engineering design and actual operation. Based on the verification results, it adopts a comprehensive calculation strategy that considers both design warnings and historical recurrence as adverse impact evaluation criteria. This provides a scientific, comprehensive, flexible, and reasonable automated auxiliary identification method for judging adverse operating conditions of environmental quantities in water conservancy and hydropower projects, accurately grasps the comprehensive adverse impact of environmental quantity combinations on structures, and effectively prevents risks.

[0051] The identification results delved into the adverse nature and severity of unfavorable combinations of operating conditions, providing a valuable basis for engineering managers to accurately understand adverse impacts, predict potential changes and trends in the safety status of buildings, and formulate subsequent response measures. Attached Figure Description

[0052] Figure 1 This is a system diagram of a method for identifying unfavorable environmental conditions combinations in water conservancy and hydropower projects, provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

[0053] Figure 2 This is a data diagram showing the identification results of unfavorable environmental conditions combination in water conservancy and hydropower projects, provided by an embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0054] The present invention will be further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. The following embodiments are only used to more clearly illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, and should not be used to limit the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0055] Example 1

[0056] This invention provides an automatic identification method for unfavorable combinations of environmental parameters in water conservancy and hydropower projects, such as... Figure 1 As shown, it includes the following steps:

[0057] An environmental quantity set is formed by creating an environmental quantity set with actual measured data, and a warning value is set for each environmental quantity in the set;

[0058] An environmental quantity set consists of several environmental quantities with measured data. In hydraulic engineering safety monitoring, the classic environmental quantity set consists of upstream water level, downstream water level, air temperature, and rainfall. In addition, different projects may set special environmental quantity monitoring items according to their own operational characteristics, such as ice pressure and sediment pressure. The construction method of the environmental quantity set can be flexibly set according to the actual situation of the project, which can more accurately define the external environmental characteristics of the project, realizing the adaptability of this invention to different projects.

[0059] Environmental quantity warning values ​​include the upper limit of the warning value. Jmax and the lower limit of the warning value Jmin Two. The warning value should be taken first from the design given value. When there is no design given value, the warning value can be taken from the hydrological and meteorological survey results of the project site over many years, and the historical extreme values ​​of environmental quantities over many years.

[0060] In this invention, for the environmental quantity of upstream water level, the design flood level is used as the corresponding upper limit of the warning value and the design dead water level is used as the corresponding lower limit of the warning value; for rainfall, the lower limit of the warning value is 0.

[0061] (2) Based on the set of environmental parameters, construct several combinations of unfavorable operating conditions;

[0062] The unfavorable operating condition combination is formed by combining several environmental quantities and their corresponding adverse impact strategies and weight values. Different combinations of environmental quantities have different adverse impacts on the operational safety of hydraulic structures. For example, the combination of high upstream water level and low temperature is unfavorable to the deformation stability of the dam; the combination of high upstream water level and high temperature is unfavorable to the stress on the structures at both ends of the arch dam.

[0063] In this invention, a project can simultaneously construct several sets of adverse working condition combinations according to the actual characteristics of the project and the operational safety risks. Different types of adverse conditions can be identified, thereby enabling a comprehensive understanding of the adverse effects of environmental quantity combinations on buildings.

[0064] The method for constructing the adverse operating condition combination is as follows: all environmental quantities participating in the identification of this adverse operating condition combination are introduced from the set of environmental quantities, and each of them is assigned an adverse impact strategy and its weight value when identifying this adverse operating condition combination.

[0065] For example, a certain dam actually has three combinations of unfavorable operating conditions, as shown below:

[0066] 1) High upstream water level and high temperature combination. This combination includes two environmental quantities: upstream water level and temperature. The upstream water level is subject to a high alert (i.e., the higher the water level, the more unfavorable it is) with a weight value of 2, and the temperature is subject to a high alert (i.e., the higher the temperature, the more unfavorable it is) with a weight value of 1.

[0067] 2) High upstream water level, low temperature and heavy rainfall combination. This combination includes three environmental quantities: upstream water level, temperature and rainfall. The upstream water level is given a high warning (i.e., the higher the water level, the more unfavorable) with a weight value of 3. The temperature is given a low warning (i.e., the lower the temperature, the more unfavorable) with a weight value of 2. The rainfall is given a high warning (i.e., the stronger the rainfall, the more unfavorable) with a weight value of 1.

[0068] 3) Low downstream water level and large inflow combination. This combination includes two environmental quantities: downstream water level and inflow. The downstream water level is subject to a low warning level (i.e., the lower the water level, the more unfavorable it is) with a weight value of 1, and the inflow is subject to a high warning level (i.e., the larger the inflow, the more unfavorable it is) with a weight value of 2.

[0069] The adverse impact strategy for each environmental quantity specifies which strategy is adopted when that environmental quantity participates in the identification of this adverse working condition combination: high alert or low alert. Adopting a high alert strategy means that the higher the measured environmental quantity, the more detrimental it is to project safety; adopting a low alert strategy means that the lower the measured environmental quantity, the more detrimental it is to project safety. Except for rainfall, which is preset to use a high alert, other environmental quantities do not have a pre-set strategy and can be flexibly set manually based on the expected comprehensive most adverse impact of the adverse working condition combination.

[0070] The weight values ​​of each environmental quantity indicate the weight of that environmental quantity when participating in the identification of unfavorable working condition combinations. The larger the weight value, the more significant the impact of that environmental quantity on the engineering operation performance in that combination. The weight values ​​can be set manually according to the actual impact of each environmental quantity in the unfavorable working condition combination.

[0071] The adverse impact strategy and weighting mechanism of environmental quantities can flexibly and quickly adjust the impact mode and degree of individual environmental quantities according to the combination situation, and can better adapt to the simultaneous evaluation of multiple adverse working condition combinations, especially when the adverse impact of the same environmental quantity is different between combinations.

[0072] (3) Based on the preset analysis period, verify the adaptability of the environmental quantity warning values;

[0073] The preset analysis period includes the start time and end time of the analysis period.

[0074] The verification of the environmental quantity warning values ​​involves examining the consistency between the monitoring results of various environmental quantities and the warning values ​​during the reference period, and verifying the degree of matching and adaptability between the design warning values ​​and the actual operating conditions of the project. Environmental quantity warning values ​​are preferentially adopted from design values ​​or multi-year hydrological and meteorological survey results. However, in some cases, the actual operating conditions of the project differ significantly from the warning values. Using only environmental quantity warning values ​​to identify unfavorable operating condition combinations may not be able to identify unfavorable combinations that deviate from normal but do not approach or exceed the warning values. Therefore, this invention verifies the adaptability of environmental quantity warning values ​​and automatically adopts different comprehensive adverse index calculation strategies based on the verification results.

[0075] The reference period starts from the time the project is running normally and ends before the start of the analysis period for unfavorable environmental conditions.

[0076] Specifically, the method for verifying the adaptability of the environmental quantity warning value is as follows:

[0077] ① The range of the upper and lower warning limits for each environmental quantity is divided into multiple equal parts; this invention uses 10 equal parts. The distribution of measured data for each environmental quantity within each equal part during the reference period is statistically analyzed, and then the data counts for each equal part are combined into a new array. Q， Calculate the new array QThe standard deviation and mean of the environmental quantity are used to calculate the ergodicity coefficient of the environmental quantity.

[0078]

[0079] in, For the first i Erraticity coefficient of an environmental quantity and For the first i The mean and standard deviation of a new array composed of environmental quantities.

[0080] ② Calculate and statistically analyze the mean and standard deviation of the original measured data series for each environmental quantity within the reference period, and finally calculate the median coefficient of the environmental quantities:

[0081]

[0082] in, For the first i Median coefficient of an environmental quantity and The first i The mean and standard deviation of the original measurement sequence of each environmental quantity within the reference period. Jmax i For the first i The upper limit of the warning value for an environmental quantity. Jmin i For the first i The lower limit of the warning value for each environmental quantity.

[0083] ③ When satisfied or When the environmental quantity warning value passes the suitability test, it is determined that the environmental quantity warning value has passed the suitability test.

[0084] in, For the uniformity of distribution, This is the mean-fit parameter.

[0085] The distribution uniformity parameter and mean fit parameter All are constants, and can generally be taken as... 3. The value is 1. In practice, this can be dynamically adjusted based on the project's operational status; if the project's operating time is long, a smaller value can be used. and Conversely, take the larger one. and .

[0086] For each combination of unfavorable working conditions, calculate and analyze the unfavorable index of each environmental quantity measured in each time period.

[0087] Specifically, the formula for calculating the adverse index of each environmental quantity measured during the analysis period is as follows:

[0088] When participating in the identification of this group of adverse operating conditions, if the adverse impact strategy of a certain environmental quantity is set to high alert:

[0089] ,

[0090] When participating in the identification of this group of adverse operating conditions, if the adverse impact strategy of a certain environmental quantity is set to low alert:

[0091] ，

[0092] In particular, when At that time, take .

[0093] Among them, the first in the analysis period i The environmental quantity j The adverse index for each test, Y ij For the first i The environmental quantity in the first j The measured values ​​of each test. n The total number of environmental quantities involved in identifying this group of adverse working condition combinations. m This represents the total number of measurements taken for the combination of environmental quantities within the analysis period.

[0094] Based on the results of the adaptability test of the environmental quantity warning value within the unfavorable working condition combination, the comprehensive unfavorable index of each measurement within the analysis period is calculated and analyzed.

[0095] Specifically, the formula for calculating the comprehensive adverse index for each measurement within the analysis period is as follows:

[0096]

[0097] in, To analyze the first period of time j The overall adverse index for each test, This is the probability adjustment coefficient. To analyze the first period of time j The probability of unfavorable outcomes in each test. For the first i The weight values ​​of each environmental quantity.

[0098] The probability adjustment coefficient The constant is defined as follows: when one or more environmental quantities involved in identifying this adverse operating condition combination fail the warning value suitability test, The value is 0.5; when all environmental quantities involved in identifying this adverse working condition combination pass the warning value suitability test, It is 0.

[0099] The formula for calculating the probability of unfavorable index for each measurement within the analysis period is as follows:

[0100]

[0101] in, To analyze the first period of time j The probability of unfavorable outcomes in each test. For reference periods, the adverse effects of each environmental quantity in a particular measurement for identifying this combination of adverse operating conditions are no less than those in the analysis period. j When considering the impact of a single test, the duration of that adverse effect; L For reference, the adverse effects of each environmental quantity during the period should not be lower than those during the analysis period. j The cumulative number of times the impact of each measurement occurs; T This refers to the total duration of the reference period.

[0102] (6) By comparing the comprehensive adverse index with the preset adverse working condition assessment criteria, the combination of adverse environmental conditions, their adverse nature and degree can be identified.

[0103] The adverse working condition assessment criteria can be divided into multiple levels. Based on the degree of harm to the safety and durability of hydraulic structures, the comprehensive adverse index range and its degree of adverseness for each level can be defined independently. In this invention, the adverse working condition assessment criteria can be set into multiple levels. M Level, of which the first k (j=1,2,...,M) The range of the comprehensive adverse index for level ( ) is ( ) a k-1 , a k When the overall adverse index a k-1 < P ≤ a k At that time, the identification result of this test was the [number]. k The level of disadvantage is described.

[0104] Identify the combinations of unfavorable environmental conditions, their nature, and their severity, specifically including the following steps:

[0105] Starting with the first measurement in the analysis period, the comprehensive adverse index of each unfavorable working condition combination in that measurement is compared with the adverse working condition assessment criteria. If the comprehensive adverse index falls within the preset level of comprehensive adverse index, it is identified as the occurrence of that unfavorable working condition combination in the current measurement, and the adverse nature and actual degree of adverseness of the combination are described. Then, each measurement in the analysis period is traversed sequentially to determine whether an unfavorable working condition combination occurs in each measurement. After the loop is completed, all environmental unfavorable working condition combinations existing in the project during the analysis period are identified.

[0106] The adverse properties of the unfavorable operating condition combination are determined based on the results of the environmental quantity warning value adaptability test within the combination, distinguishing in detail whether the adverse properties of the unfavorable operating condition combination are based primarily on the warning value or on the actual operating conditions.

[0107] Specifically, this invention constructs a set of unfavorable operating conditions for a hydropower station dam: high water level, low temperature, and heavy rainfall. This set of unfavorable operating conditions includes three environmental quantities: upstream water level, temperature, and rainfall. The upstream water level is subject to a high alert level with a weight of 4; the temperature is subject to a low alert level with a weight of 3; and the rainfall is subject to a high alert level with a weight of 2. The preset analysis period is from June 1, 2018 to May 30, 2019, with a reference period from May 29, 2006 to December 31, 2017. The preset unfavorable operating condition criteria are: (0, 0.85] Normal; (0.85, 1] ​​Unfavorable; >1.0 Extremely unfavorable.

[0108] like Figure 2 The image shown is a data chart of the identification results of unfavorable environmental conditions combination for a water conservancy and hydropower project provided by an embodiment of the present invention. The final identification results are analyzed as follows: From December 30, 2018 to January 1, 2019 and on January 23, 2019, the project actually experienced an unfavorable combination of high water level, low temperature and heavy rainfall. The unfavorable nature was that it exceeded the historical actual operation, and the degree of unfavorability was unfavorable.

[0109] Example 2

[0110] The present invention also provides an automatic identification device for unfavorable combinations of environmental parameters in water conservancy and hydropower projects, the device comprising:

[0111] Setting module: Used to establish a set of environmental quantities with measured data, set upper and lower warning values ​​for each environmental quantity, construct several sets of unfavorable working condition combinations, and set preset analysis periods and unfavorable working condition evaluation criteria;

[0112] Inspection module: Used to inspect the adaptability of environmental quantity warning values;

[0113] Calculation module: Calculates the adverse index of each environmental quantity for each measurement under different adverse working condition combinations within a preset analysis period; based on the test results, calculates the comprehensive adverse index of each measurement under different adverse working condition combinations within the analysis period;

[0114] Analysis module: Compares the comprehensive adverse index of each measurement with the preset adverse working condition assessment criteria, and determines the environmental adverse working condition combination identification result based on the comparison results.

[0115] Example 3

[0116] The present invention also provides a computer program stored on a computer-readable storage medium, which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of a method for identifying combinations of unfavorable environmental conditions in water conservancy and hydropower projects.

[0117] Those skilled in the art will understand that embodiments of this application can be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, this application can take the form of a completely hardware embodiment, a completely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, this application can take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0118] This application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams of methods, systems, and computer program products according to embodiments of this application. It will be understood that each block of the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, special-purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, generate instructions for implementing the flowchart... Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0119] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable storage medium that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium produce an article of manufacture including instruction means, which are implemented in a process Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The function specified in one or more boxes.

[0120] These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing equipment to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable equipment to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions that execute on the computer or other programmable equipment for implementing the process. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps of the function specified in one or more boxes.

[0121] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention. It should be noted that for those skilled in the art, several improvements and modifications can be made without departing from the technical principles of the present invention, and these improvements and modifications should also be considered within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for identifying unfavorable working condition combinations of environmental quantities in water conservancy and hydropower engineering, characterized in that, The method comprises the following steps: establishing an environment quantity set with measured data, setting an upper limit value and a lower limit value of an alarm value for each environment quantity; selecting environment quantities participating in identification from the environment quantity set, setting an adverse effect strategy and a weight value of each environment quantity, and constructing several groups of adverse working condition combinations; the adverse effect strategy comprises high alarm and low alarm, wherein high alarm means that the higher the measured value of the environment quantity, the more adverse to the engineering safety, and low alarm means that the lower the measured value of the environment quantity, the more adverse to the engineering safety; calculating adverse indices of each environment quantity in each measurement under different adverse working condition combinations in a preset analysis period; testing the alarm value adaptability of the environment quantity to obtain a test result; the testing of the alarm value adaptability of the environment quantity comprises: dividing the interval range of the upper limit value and the lower limit value of the alarm value of each environment quantity into several equal intervals; calculating a persistence coefficient and / or a median coefficient of each environment quantity; wherein the calculation formula of the persistence coefficient is: ， wherein is the coefficient of the temporal change of the i th environmental quantity, and are the mean and the standard deviation, respectively, of a new array consisting of the i th environmental quantity. when the persistence coefficient is not greater than a distribution uniformity parameter, or the median coefficient is not greater than a mean value adaptability parameter, it is determined that the alarm value of the environment quantity passes the adaptability test; based on the test result, calculating a comprehensive adverse index of each measurement under different adverse working condition combinations in the analysis period; comparing the comprehensive adverse index of each measurement with a preset adverse working condition evaluation criterion, and determining an environment quantity adverse working condition combination identification result according to the comparison result; the environment quantity adverse working condition combination identification result comprises a combination situation, an adverse nature and an adverse degree, and the adverse nature is that when each environment quantity participating in identification passes the alarm value adaptability test, the alarm value is taken as the main standard; otherwise, the actual running situation is taken as the main standard.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, the calculation formula of the adverse index is as follows: when the adverse effect strategy of the environment quantity is high alarm, the calculation formula of the adverse index is: ， when the adverse effect strategy of the environment quantity is low alarm, the calculation formula of the adverse index is: ， In the formula, is the adverse index of the i-th environmental quantity in the j-th measurement in the analysis period, i j is the upper limit value of the warning value of the i-th environmental quantity, i is the lower limit value of the warning value of the i-th environmental quantity, i is the measured value of the i-th environmental quantity in the j-th measurement, i j n is the total number of environmental quantities participating in the identification of the group of adverse working condition combinations, m is the total number of environmental quantity combinations in the analysis period; when , take .​​​​​​ 3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, the calculation formula of the comprehensive adverse index is: ， In the formula, To analyze the first period of time j The overall adverse index for each test, To analyze the first period of time j The probability of adverse events in each measurement is used to characterize the probability of adverse events in the first measurement based on operational data within a reference period. j The probability of an adverse effect from a combination of environmental quantities measured in a given number of tests. To analyze the first period of time i The environmental quantity j The adverse index for each test, For the first i The weight values ​​of each environmental quantity; is a probability adjustment coefficient, when one or more of the environmental quantities participating in the identification of the adverse working condition combination fails the warning value fitness test, the probability adjustment coefficient is 0.5; when each of the environmental quantities participating in the identification of the adverse working condition combination passes the warning value fitness test, the probability adjustment coefficient is 0.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that, the calculation formula of the probability adverse index is: ， wherein, is the probability disadvantage index of the i-th measurement in the analysis period, j is the duration of the disadvantageous influence of the i-th measurement in the reference period when the disadvantageous influence of each environmental quantity of the i-th measurement in the reference period is not less than the influence of the j-th measurement in the analysis period, j L is the cumulative occurrence number of the disadvantageous influence of each environmental quantity in the reference period when the disadvantageous influence of each environmental quantity in the reference period is not less than the influence of the j-th measurement in the analysis period, j T is the total duration of the reference period.​​​ 5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, the testing of the alarm value adaptability of the environment quantity comprises: 1) divide the interval range of the upper limit value and the lower limit value of the warning value of each environmental quantity into several equal intervals, count the distribution quantity of the measured data of each environmental quantity in each equal interval in the reference period, and form a new array with the data quantity of each equal interval ， Calculate the standard deviation and mean of the new array, and the historical coefficient of the first i environmental quantity; 2) Calculate and count the mean, standard deviation, and the median coefficient of the original measured data sequence of each environmental quantity in the reference period. i The median coefficient of the first environmental quantity is calculated according to the following formula: i The median coefficient of the first environmental quantity is calculated according to the following formula: ， In the formula, is the median coefficient of the i th environmental quantity, and are the mean value and the standard deviation of the original value sequence of the i th environmental quantity in the reference period, respectively, is the upper limit value of the warning value of the i th environmental quantity, is the lower limit value of the warning value of the i th environmental quantity. 3) When the first i The ergodicity coefficient of an environmental quantity is not greater than the distribution uniformity parameter, or the ergodicity coefficient of the first environmental quantity is not greater than the distribution uniformity parameter. i When the median coefficient of an environmental quantity is not greater than the mean fit parameter, the warning value of that environmental quantity is deemed to have passed the fit test. the reference period starts from the normal operation of the project and ends at the beginning time of the preset analysis period, and the distribution uniformity parameter and the mean value adaptability parameter are both constants.

6. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, the preset adverse working condition evaluation criterion comprises setting a preset level comprehensive adverse index range and a preset level adverse degree, and the preset level adverse degree comprises the harm degree to the safety and durability of the hydraulic structure.

7. The method according to claim 6, characterized in that, determining the environment quantity adverse working condition combination identification result according to the comparison result comprises: The comprehensive adverse indexes of each measurement in the analysis period are sequentially traversed to determine whether they fall into the preset comprehensive adverse index range, to obtain all environmental quantity adverse working condition combination situations existing in the analysis period, and the environmental quantity adverse working condition combination identification result includes the combination situation, adverse property and adverse degree, the adverse property includes a warning value or an actual operation situation as the main standard, the adverse property is determined according to the environmental quantity warning value adaptability test result, when all the environmental quantities participating in the identification pass the adaptability test, it is determined that the adverse property takes the warning value as the main standard, and when at least one of the environmental quantities participating in the identification does not pass the adaptability test, it is determined that the adverse property takes the actual operation situation as the main standard.

8. A device for identifying unfavorable working condition combinations of environmental quantities in water conservancy and hydropower engineering, characterized in that, The device comprises: A setting module is configured to establish an environmental quantity set with measured data, set an upper limit value and a lower limit value of a warning value for each environmental quantity, select an environmental quantity participating in identification from the environmental quantity set, set an adverse influence strategy and a weight value of each environmental quantity, and construct a plurality of adverse working condition combinations; the adverse influence strategy includes high warning and low warning, wherein high warning means that the higher the environmental quantity measurement value, the more adverse to engineering safety, and low warning means that the lower the environmental quantity measurement value, the more adverse to engineering safety; a preset analysis period and an adverse working condition evaluation criterion are set; A test module is configured to test the adaptability of the environmental quantity warning value, to obtain a test result; the test of the adaptability of the environmental quantity warning value comprises: dividing the interval range of the upper limit value and the lower limit value of the warning value of each environmental quantity into a plurality of equal intervals; calculating the persistence coefficient and / or the median coefficient of each environmental quantity; wherein the calculation formula of the persistence coefficient is: ， wherein is the coefficient of the temporal trend of the i th environmental quantity, and are the mean and the standard deviation, respectively, of a new array consisting of the i th environmental quantity. when the persistence coefficient is not greater than a distribution uniformity parameter, or the median coefficient is not greater than a mean value adaptability parameter, it is determined that the warning value of the environmental quantity passes the adaptability test; A calculation module is configured to calculate the adverse index of each environmental quantity of each measurement under different adverse working condition combination conditions in the preset analysis period; based on the test result, the comprehensive adverse index of each measurement under different adverse working condition combination conditions in the analysis period is calculated; A research and judgment module is configured to compare the comprehensive adverse index of each measurement with the preset adverse working condition evaluation criterion, and determine the environmental quantity adverse working condition combination identification result according to the comparison result; the environmental quantity adverse working condition combination identification result includes the combination situation, the adverse property and the adverse degree, and the adverse property is: when each environmental quantity participating in the identification passes the warning value adaptability test, the warning value is taken as the main standard; otherwise, the actual operation situation is taken as the main standard.

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