A method for confident reliability analysis and health management based on radar range

Abstract

This invention proposes a method for confidence reliability analysis and health management based on radar range. Step 1: Construct an interdisciplinary equation, namely, a radar range equation that considers system losses; Step 2: Construct a margin equation based on the radar range equation that considers system losses; Step 3: Quantify the uncertainties in transmit power, transmit gain, and receive gain; Step 4: Construct a metric equation, namely, a confidence reliability function; Step 5: Estimate unknown parameters; Step 6: Based on the obtained confidence reliability assessment results of the radar range, evaluate the health level of the radar range and provide maintenance decision recommendations. By establishing an interdisciplinary equation, a margin equation, and a metric equation, this invention establishes a relationship between radar range and reliability assessment, scientifically and rationally quantifies uncertainties from various sources, and provides important support for the comprehensive protection of radar systems.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of radar integrated support engineering, and in particular relates to a confirmed reliability analysis and health management method based on radar range. Background Art

[0002] The degree of informatization and technical complexity of radar systems are constantly increasing, requiring the improvement of equipment combat effectiveness and the maintenance of combat readiness and mission success throughout the life cycle. This puts higher demands on the reliability, health management and comprehensive support of radar systems.

[0003] References [A. Ludloff, M. Minker, Reliability of Velocity Measurement by MTD Radar, IEEE Transactions on Aerospace and Electronic System, vol. AES-21, No. 4, pp 522-528] studied the reliability of velocity measurement of MTD (Moving Target Detector) radar; References [Tyler D. Ridder, Ram M. Narayanan, Operational Reliability of Radar Systems, MNAECON 2018-IEEE National Aerospace and Electronics Conference, 2018, pp 561-567] conducted a study on the reliability of radar operation based on probability theory, linking reliability with the radar signal processing process; References [Mustaq Basha, Nilesh R. Ware, Design for Reliability of Phased Araay Radars, 2021 6th International Conference for Convergence in Technology (I2CT), 2021.] used multiple models to study the reliability design of phased array radar; References [Wang Suo-Jian, Phased Array Radar Range Performance Evaluation Method for Radar Health Management, Computer Measurement & Control, vol 27, No. 2, 2019, pp 265-268.] proposed a health management technology using the current phased array radar range evaluation results; the literature [Zheng Yuan-Zhu, Yang De, Song–Xiao Mei, Song Chang-Hao, Gong Wen-Jun, A Study on Condition-based Maintenance Technology of Phased Array Radars, Modern Radar, vol. 42, No. 10, 2020, pp 12-21.] studied the condition-based maintenance technology of phased array radar.

[0004] However, the following problems still exist in current radar reliability analysis and health management research: 1) Radar reliability research usually relies on probability theory and cannot be directly linked to radar performance design; 2) Radar health management systems only consider the current range assessment results, rather than all results under the same conditions, and ignore the impact of many uncertainties in the evaluation process.

[0005] Modern battlefield situations are ever-changing. To maximize the effectiveness of radar equipment, radar health management and maintenance support decisions require rapid response. According to the definition of radar in [The IEEE Standard Dictionary of Electrical and Electronics Terms, IEEE Std 100-1996, pp. 854], the core performance of a radar is its range. Therefore, research on reliability analysis and health management technologies for radar range is a current research focus in the field of radar integrated support engineering technology. Summary of the Invention

[0006] To solve the problems existing in the prior art, the present invention proposes a method for confident reliability analysis and health management based on radar range, comprising the following steps:

[0007] Step 1: Construct an interdisciplinary equation, namely, the radar range equation that takes into account system losses, including RF link loss, propagation loss, antenna loss, and receiver / processor loss.

[0008] Step 2: Construct a margin equation based on the radar range equation that takes system losses into account;

[0009] Step 3: Quantify the uncertainties in transmit power, transmit gain, and receive gain;

[0010] Step 4: Construct the measurement equation:

[0011] Step 4.1: Determine the margin equation that takes uncertainty into account based on the margin equation in step 2 and the uncertainty quantification in step 3;

[0012] Step 4.2: Obtain the measurement equation, i.e., the confidence reliability function;

[0013] Step 5: Estimate unknown parameters;

[0014] Step 6: Based on the confidence reliability assessment results of the radar range obtained in steps 4 and 5, the health level of the radar range is evaluated and maintenance decision recommendations are given.

[0015] Furthermore, the margin equation is:

[0016]

[0017] Among them, R is the radar range considering system loss, R th is the threshold of radar range; all variables in the formula are expressed in real values ​​rather than decibel values; P t represents the emission power; τ represents the pulse width; λ represents the wavelength; σ represents the target cross-sectional area; k is the Boltzmann constant; L aw is the atmospheric attenuation loss; L t is the transmission link loss; G t ′ and G r ′ represents the transmit and receive antenna gains considering the loss; T s ' represents the noise temperature of the radar system considering the loss, and D0' represents the detection factor considering the loss.

[0018] Furthermore, the uncertainty in the transmit power is quantified as follows:

[0019] The normal uncertainty distribution function is used to quantify the transmission power P t The uncertainty in Among them, P t is the mean, σ P is the standard deviation; the normal uncertainty distribution function of the transmission power is as follows:

[0020]

[0021] Furthermore, the uncertainty in the transmit gain is quantified as:

[0022] Normal uncertainty distribution is used to quantify the transmission gain G t ', i.e. Among them, G t ' is the mean, σ t is the standard deviation; the normal uncertainty distribution function of the transmission gain is as follows:

[0023]

[0024] Furthermore, the uncertainty in the receiving gain is quantified as follows:

[0025] Using normal uncertainty distribution To characterize, where G r ' is the mean, σ r is the standard deviation; the normal uncertainty distribution function of the receiving gain is as follows:

[0026]

[0027] Furthermore, the margin equation considering uncertainty is:

[0028]

[0029] Furthermore, the confidence reliability function is specifically:

[0030]

[0031] in, Represents the uncertainty measure, that is, M R >0 probability; is an uncertain variable, is its uncertainty distribution, which is obtained by inverse uncertainty distribution Solution;

[0032]

[0033] Among them, α represents the confidence in uncertainty theory, and its value range is [0,1].

[0034] Furthermore, the uncertain least squares method is used to estimate the unknown parameters, which include {P t , σ P , G t ',σ t , G r ',σ r}.

[0035] Furthermore, based on the above radar system loss term, the range equation considering system loss is given as follows:

[0036]

[0037] All variables in the formula are expressed in true values ​​rather than decibel values; R represents the operating distance; P t represents the emission power; τ represents the pulse width; λ represents the wavelength; σ represents the target cross-sectional area; k is the Boltzmann constant; L aw is the atmospheric attenuation loss; L t is the transmission link loss; the other variables in the formula have the following meanings:

[0038] G t ' and G r 'represent the transmit and receive antenna gains taking into account the loss, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0039]

[0040] Among them, G t and G r Represent the ideal transmitting and receiving antenna gains respectively; L ad1 Design losses for the antenna, including illumination loss L ill and cscx Loss L csc ;L ai Create losses for the antenna, including dissipative losses L a , occlusion loss L ab , leakage loss L sp , surface tolerance loss L st , feed and array mismatch loss L vs , phase and amplitude error loss L φa , phase quantization loss L φq and strabismus loss L sq ;L ao is the antenna operating loss, including bandwidth loss L z , scanning sector loss L ss and scanning loss L sc ;

[0041] T s ' represents the noise temperature of the radar system considering the loss, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0042]

[0043] Among them, T a is the antenna noise temperature, T a ' is the apparent temperature of the sky at the radar frequency; T r is the receiving line temperature, T tr =290K and L r are the physical temperature and loss of the receiving RF line duplexer respectively; T e is the receiver temperature, T0 = 290K is the reference temperature, F n is the receiver noise figure;

[0044] D0' represents the detection factor taking into account loss, and is calculated as follows:

[0045] D0'=D0(L b L g L w L im L m L mf L q1 L p L i L f L c L ec L mti L o L es )

[0046] Where D0 = S0 / N0 is the ideal detection factor, S0 and N0 are the signal and noise output powers of the radar receiver, and L bis the binary cumulative loss, L g is the constant false alarm loss, L w is the accumulator weighted loss, L im is the limiter loss, L m is the range gate matching loss, L mf is the Doppler filter matching loss, L q1 is the quantization loss; L p is the beam shape loss, L i is the cumulative loss, L f is the fluctuation loss, L c is the sinking loss, L ec is the shielding loss, L mti is the MTI / Doppler processing loss, L o is the operator loss, L es For straddle loss.

[0047] Furthermore, when 0.95 <R B When ≤1, the health level of the radar range is assessed as normal, and the maintenance support decision recommendation is that no immediate maintenance is required; when 0.9 <R B When R is less than or equal to 0.95, the health level assessment of the radar range is an alarm, and the maintenance support decision recommendation is that maintenance is required during the next scheduled inspection; when R B When ≤0.9, the health level of the radar range is assessed as failure, and the maintenance support decision recommendation is that corrective maintenance is required immediately.

[0048] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following technical effects:

[0049] 1) Based on the confidence reliability theory, this paper proposes for the first time a confidence reliability modeling method for radar range based on condition monitoring, which establishes a connection between radar range and reliability evaluation results.

[0050] 2) This paper constructs interdisciplinary equations, margin equations, and metric equations for radar range, rationally quantifies the uncertainty from various sources, and provides strong support for health assessment and maintenance assurance decisions of the radar health management system, further supporting the comprehensive assurance of the radar system.

[0051] 3) A simulation case study demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method is suitable for quantifying the uncertainty of various sources in radar range assessment and can provide decision makers with reasonable maintenance support decision-making recommendations. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0052] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a method for confident reliability analysis and health management based on radar range according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0053] The embodiment of the present application proposes a method for confident reliability analysis and health management based on radar range.

[0054] In order to help those skilled in the art better understand the present invention, the following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative work are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0055] See also Figure 1 , the embodiment of the present application provides a method for confident reliability analysis and health management based on radar range, comprising the following steps:

[0056] Step 1: Construction of interdisciplinary equations

[0057] In radar design and analysis, the radar range equation is often used to relate the energy of the echo signal to the radar parameters, propagation path, and detected target. However, in actual use, many system loss factors can prevent the radar from achieving its ideal range performance. Therefore, step 1.1 must be implemented first to calculate the losses of the radar system.

[0058] Step 1.1: System loss statistics

[0059] Loss terms in radar systems typically fall into the following categories:

[0060] Table 1 Common loss items of radar system

[0061]

[0062]

[0063] In practical applications, statistics need to be made based on the actual conditions of each radar system, and its system loss does not necessarily include all the loss items described in Table 1 above.

[0064] After completing step 1.1, go to step 1.2 to construct the interdisciplinary equation for radar range, that is, the radar range equation that takes system loss into account.

[0065] Step 1.2: Distance equation construction

[0066] Based on the above radar system loss terms, the range equation considering system loss is given as follows:

[0067]

[0068] All variables in the formula are expressed in true values ​​rather than decibel values; R represents the operating distance (m); P t represents the transmission power (w); τ represents the pulse width (s); λ represents the wavelength (m); σ represents the target cross-sectional area (m 2 ); k = 1.38 × 10-23 w / (Hz·K) is the Boltzmann constant; L aw is the atmospheric attenuation loss; L t is the transmission link loss. The other variables in the formula have the following meanings:

[0069] G t ' and G r 'represent the transmit and receive antenna gains taking into account the loss, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0070]

[0071] Among them, G t and G r represent the ideal transmit and receive antenna gains, respectively.

[0072] T s ' represents the radar system noise temperature (K) considering losses, and is calculated as follows:

[0073]

[0074] Among them, T a is the antenna noise temperature, T a ' is the apparent temperature of the sky at the radar frequency; T r is the receiving line temperature, T tr =290K and L r are the physical temperature and loss of the receiving RF line duplexer respectively; T e is the receiver temperature, T0 = 290K is the reference temperature, F n is the receiver noise figure.

[0075] D0′ represents the detection factor taking into account loss, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0076] D0'=D0(L b L g L w L im L m L mf L q1 L p L i L f L c L ec L mti L o Les ) (4)

[0077] Where D0=S0 / N0 is the ideal detection factor, and S0 and N0 are the signal and noise output powers of the radar receiver.

[0078] Formulas (1)-(4) are the interdisciplinary equations for radar range. Now proceed to step 2.

[0079] Step 2: Margin Equation Construction

[0080] After obtaining the interdisciplinary equation, such as the threshold R of the radar range th Known, the margin equation can be obtained as follows:

[0081]

[0082] Step 3: Uncertainty Analysis and Quantification

[0083] For a given radar system and target, the uncertainty in the range assessment is mainly reflected in the transmit power, transmit gain and receive gain, as follows.

[0084] Step 3.1: Quantify uncertainty in transmit power

[0085] Radar transmission power is supplied by the transmitting power supply, and the output power of the transmitting power supply usually fluctuates. In addition, due to the limited accuracy of the power supply BITE (Build-In Test Equipment), the measurement of its output current and voltage also has uncertainty. Therefore, the normal uncertainty distribution is used. To quantify the transmit power P t The uncertainty in Among them, P t is the mean, σ P is the standard deviation. The normal uncertainty distribution function is as follows:

[0086]

[0087] Step 3.2: Quantify uncertainty in transmit gain

[0088] The radar transmit antenna gain is determined by the radar antenna design, manufacturing and use process, which inevitably leads to uncertainty. In addition, due to the volatility of the array monitoring itself, there is also uncertainty in the process of obtaining the transmit gain by array monitoring. For this reason, the normal uncertainty distribution is used. To quantify the uncertainty in the transmit gain Gt', Among them, G t ' is the mean, σ t is the standard deviation. The normal uncertainty distribution function is as follows:

[0089]

[0090] Step 3.3: Quantify uncertainty in receive gain

[0091] The uncertainty sources in the receiving antenna gain are similar to those in the transmitting antenna gain, and the normal uncertainty distribution is used. To characterize, where G r ' is the mean, σ r is the standard deviation. The normal uncertainty distribution function is as follows:

[0092]

[0093] Based on the results of steps 2 and 3, proceed to step 4 to construct the measurement equation.

[0094] Step 4: Metric Equation Construction

[0095] Step 4.1: Margin equation considering uncertainty

[0096] Based on the margin equation in step 2 and the uncertainty quantification in step 3, the margin equation for the radar range considering uncertainty is as follows:

[0097]

[0098] Step 4.2: Belief Reliability Function

[0099] According to the confidence reliability theory, the measurement equation is also called the confidence reliability function, which represents the possibility that the performance margin of the radar range is greater than 0, as follows:

[0100]

[0101]

[0102] in, Represents the uncertainty measure, that is, M R >0 probability; is an uncertain variable, and are their uncertainty distribution and inverse uncertainty distribution respectively, α represents the reliability in uncertainty theory, and its value range is [0,1].

[0103] In summary, the confidence reliability function (metric equation) of the radar range can be obtained as follows:

[0104]

[0105] Considering that it is difficult to obtain an accurate analytical solution for formula (11), an uncertain simulation method can be used to obtain it in actual use.

[0106] Step 5: Estimation of unknown parameters

[0107] In the model established by the present invention, the unknown parameters include {P t , σ P , G t ',σ t , G r ',σ r}, the uncertain least squares method is used for estimation, as follows.

[0108] Step 5.1: Estimate P t and σ P

[0109] Let P ti For uncertain variables The i-th observation value of , i = 1, 2,…, K1.

[0110] Will All observations of are arranged in ascending order, and the reliability of each observation is calculated using the following Benard estimate:

[0111]

[0112] Among them, α i Represents P ti The corresponding cumulative reliability.

[0113] Minimize the following objective function to obtain parameter estimation results,

[0114]

[0115] Among them, Φ P represent Uncertain distribution.

[0116] Step 5.2: Estimate G t ' and σ t

[0117] Let G tj For uncertain variables The j-th observation value of , j = 1, 2,…, K2.

[0118] Will All observations of are arranged in ascending order, and the reliability of each observation is calculated using the following formula:

[0119]

[0120] Among them, α j Represents G tj The corresponding cumulative reliability.

[0121] Minimize the following objective function to obtain parameter estimation results,

[0122]

[0123] Among them, Φ t represent Uncertain distribution.

[0124] Step 5.3: Estimate G r ' and σ r

[0125] Let G rh For uncertain variables The h-th observation value of , h = 1, 2, …, K3.

[0126] Will All observations of are arranged in ascending order, and the reliability of each observation is calculated using the following formula:

[0127]

[0128] Among them, α h Represents G rh The corresponding cumulative reliability.

[0129] Minimize the following objective function to obtain parameter estimation results,

[0130]

[0131] Among them, Φ r represent Uncertain distribution.

[0132] Combining the above parameter estimation results with formula (11), the confidence reliability evaluation results of the radar range can be obtained by using uncertain simulation.

[0133] Step 6: Health management support

[0134] A radar health management system typically includes five components: condition monitoring, fault diagnosis, health assessment, condition prediction, and maintenance support decision-making. Range, as one of the core radar performance indicators, plays a crucial role in the health management system, especially in health assessment and maintenance support decision-making. Steps 1 through 5 provide strong support for these processes, as detailed below.

[0135] Based on the confidence reliability obtained from formula (11), a health assessment of the radar range can be performed, and then reasonable maintenance support decision recommendations can be given. The following example shows an example.

[0136] Table 2 Examples of radar range health assessment and maintenance support decision recommendations

[0137] Confidence in reliability Health level assessment Maintenance support decision-making recommendations <![CDATA[0.95<R B ≤1]]> normal No immediate repair required <![CDATA[0.9<R B ≤0.95]]> Alarm Repair and maintenance are required at the next scheduled inspection <![CDATA[R B ≤0.9]]> Fault Immediate corrective repairs are required

[0138] The following is an application example 1 of a method for confident reliability analysis and health management based on radar range provided in an embodiment of the present application.

[0139] 1. Simulation case information

[0140] Table 3 Basic settings of simulation cases

[0141]

[0142]

[0143] Table 4 Radar system loss items

[0144]

[0145] The simulated values ​​of transmit power, transmit gain, and receive gain are as follows:

[0146] Table 5 Simulated values ​​of transmit power, transmit gain and receive gain

[0147]

[0148]

[0149] 2. Estimation of unknown parameters

[0150] Using the unknown parameter estimation method proposed in the specific technical solution, the unknown parameter estimation results in this simulation case are as follows:

[0151] Table 6 Unknown parameter estimation results

[0152]

[0153]

[0154] 3. Confidence in reliability modeling

[0155] according to

[0156] Table 3, Table 4 and formula (2)-formula (4), the transmission gain, receiving gain, system noise temperature and detection factor considering system loss are as follows:

[0157]

[0158]

[0159] T′ s ≈(0.876T a'+36)+[T tr (L r -1)]+L r [T0(F n -1)]=1040.02K

[0160] D0'=D 0-design (L g L m L q1 L p L i L mti L es )=120.2 (18)

[0161] Assume that 90% of the radar range design value after considering system loss is the performance threshold R th ,Right now

[0162]

[0163] According to Table 6, formula (9), formula (18) and formula (19), the range margin equation considering uncertainty in the simulation case is as follows:

[0164]

[0165]

[0166]

[0167]

[0168] According to formula (11) and formula (20), as well as the uncertainty simulation method, the confidence reliability of the action distance in the simulation case can be obtained as follows:

[0169]

[0170] Note: R B =0.956 represents the confidence reliability evaluation result obtained using the existing data of the simulation case. If more observation values ​​of transmit power, transmit gain, and receive gain are obtained, the confidence reliability evaluation result needs to be updated accordingly.

[0171] 4. Health management support

[0172] According to the assured reliability evaluation results obtained by formula (21) and combined with Table 2, it can be obtained that the health level of the current radar range is "normal", that is, from the perspective of range, the radar can complete the specified functions within the specified time and under the specified conditions without the need for repair and maintenance.

[0173] The present invention constructs the relationship between radar range and reliability assessment by establishing interdisciplinary equations, margin equations and metric equations, scientifically and rationally quantifies the uncertainty of various sources, and provides important support for the comprehensive protection of radar systems.

[0174] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following technical effects:

[0175] 1) Based on the confidence reliability theory, this paper proposes for the first time a confidence reliability modeling method for radar range based on condition monitoring, which establishes a connection between radar range and reliability evaluation results.

[0176] 2) This paper constructs interdisciplinary equations, margin equations, and metric equations for radar range, rationally quantifies the uncertainty from various sources, and provides strong support for health assessment and maintenance assurance decisions of the radar health management system, further supporting the comprehensive assurance of the radar system.

[0177] 3) A simulation case study demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method is suitable for quantifying the uncertainty of various sources in radar range assessment and can provide decision makers with reasonable maintenance support decision-making recommendations.

[0178] As described above, the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present application, rather than to limit them. Although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the above embodiments, or make equivalent replacements for some of the technical features therein. However, these modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for confident reliability analysis and health management based on radar range, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Step 1: Construct an interdisciplinary equation, namely, the radar range equation that takes into account system losses, including RF link loss, propagation loss, antenna loss, and receiver / processor loss. Step 2: Construct a margin equation based on the radar range equation that takes system losses into account. Step 3: Quantify the uncertainties in transmit power, transmit gain, and receive gain; Step 4: Construct the measurement equation: Step 4.1: Determine the margin equation that takes uncertainty into account based on the margin equation in step 2 and the uncertainty quantification in step 3; Step 4.2: Obtain the measurement equation, i.e., the confidence reliability function; Step 5: Estimate unknown parameters; Step 6: Based on the confidence reliability assessment results of the radar range obtained in steps 4 and 5, the health level of the radar range is assessed and maintenance decision recommendations are given; The margin equation is: in, To consider the radar range of the system loss, is the threshold value of radar range; all variables in the formula are expressed in real values ​​rather than decibel values; Represents the transmit power; represents the pulse width; represents wavelength; represents the target cross-sectional area; k is the Boltzmann constant; L aw is the atmospheric attenuation loss; is the transmission link loss; and represent the transmit and receive antenna gains taking into account losses; represents the noise temperature of the radar system taking into account losses, represents the detection factor taking loss into account; Based on the above radar system loss terms, the range equation considering system loss is given as follows: All variables in the formula are expressed in true values ​​rather than decibel values; Represents the action distance; Represents the transmit power; represents the pulse width; represents wavelength; represents the target cross-sectional area; is the Boltzmann constant; is the atmospheric attenuation loss; is the transmission link loss; the other variables in the formula have the following meanings: and They represent the transmit and receive antenna gains taking into account losses, and are calculated as follows: in, and represent the ideal transmitting and receiving antenna gains respectively; Design losses for the antenna, including illumination losses and loss ; Create losses for the antenna, including dissipative losses , occlusion loss , leakage loss , surface tolerance loss , feed and array mismatch losses , phase and amplitude error losses , phase quantization loss and strabismus loss ; Antenna operating loss, including bandwidth loss , Scan sector loss and scanning loss ; represents the noise temperature of the radar system taking into account the loss, and the calculation formula is as follows: in, is the antenna noise temperature, is the apparent temperature of the sky as seen at the radar frequency; is the receiving line temperature, =290K and They are the physical temperature and loss of the receiving RF line duplexer; is the receiver temperature, =290K is the reference temperature, is the receiver noise figure; Represents the detection factor taking loss into account, and the calculation formula is as follows: in, is the ideal detection factor, and are the signal and noise output powers of the radar receiver, is the binary cumulative loss, is the constant false alarm loss, is the accumulator weighted loss, is the limiter loss, is the range gate matching loss, is the Doppler filter matching loss, To quantify the loss; is the beam shape loss, is the cumulative loss, is the fluctuation loss, is the sinking loss, To shield the loss, is the MTI / Doppler processing loss, For operator losses, For straddle loss.

2. The method for confident reliability analysis and health management based on radar range according to claim 1, characterized in that: The uncertainty in the transmit power is quantified as: Using normal uncertainty distribution function to quantify transmission power The uncertainty in ,in, is the mean, is the standard deviation; the normal uncertainty distribution function of the transmission power is as follows: 。 3. The method for confident reliability analysis and health management based on radar range according to claim 2, characterized in that: The uncertainty in the transmit gain is quantified as: Using normal uncertainty distribution to quantify transmission gain The uncertainty in ,in, is the mean, is the standard deviation; the normal uncertainty distribution function of the transmission gain is as follows: 。 4. The method for confident reliability analysis and health management based on radar range according to claim 3, characterized in that: The uncertainty in the receiving gain is quantified as follows: Using normal uncertainty distribution To characterize, among them, is the mean, is the standard deviation; the normal uncertainty distribution function of the receiving gain is as follows: 。 5. The method for confident reliability analysis and health management based on radar range according to claim 4, characterized in that: The margin equation considering uncertainty is: 。 6. The method for confident reliability analysis and health management based on radar range according to claim 5, characterized in that: The specific reliability function is: in, represents the uncertainty measure, that is, possibility; is an uncertain variable, is its uncertainty distribution, which is obtained by inverse uncertainty distribution Solution; in, It represents the degree of confidence in uncertainty theory, and its value range is [0,1].

7. The method for confident reliability analysis and health management based on radar range according to claim 6, characterized in that: The uncertain least squares method is used to estimate the unknown parameters, which include { , , , , , }.

8. The method for confident reliability analysis and health management based on radar range according to claim 6, characterized in that: When 0.95< When ≤1, the health level of the radar range is assessed as normal, and the maintenance support decision recommendation is that no immediate maintenance is required; when 0.9< When ≤0.95, the health level assessment of the radar range is alarm, and the maintenance support decision recommendation is that maintenance is required at the next scheduled inspection; when When ≤0.9, the health level of the radar range is assessed as failure, and the maintenance support decision recommendation is that corrective maintenance is required immediately.

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