A dynamic process safety risk grading and early warning method for a hazardous chemical enterprise region

Abstract

The application discloses a kind of dangerous chemical enterprise area dynamic process safety risk grading early warning method, and the application relates to safety management technical field, wherein including: obtaining the regional process safety data and safety risk element index system of dangerous chemical enterprise;According to regional process safety data, safety risk element index system and preset risk possibility rule table, determine the regional dynamic risk possibility grade of dangerous chemical enterprise;The inherent risk grade of the region of the dangerous chemical enterprise is evaluated, and according to the inherent risk grade of the region, determine the regional basis consequence grade of dangerous chemical enterprise;Based on the regional dynamic risk possibility grade, the regional basis consequence grade and preset regional risk grade evaluation matrix, risk grading dynamic early warning is carried out, and the regional risk grade of the dangerous chemical enterprise is obtained.The application can reflect the process safety risk grade in actual production process, ensure the real-time of process safety risk early warning.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of safety management technology, and more specifically, to a method for classifying and warning of regional dynamic process safety risks in hazardous chemical enterprises. Background Technology

[0002] In recent years, safety accidents have occurred frequently in hazardous chemical enterprises. Against this backdrop, government departments have strengthened the construction of risk monitoring and early warning systems for hazardous chemical enterprises. However, these systems are currently in the stage of simple analysis and lack effective means to classify and warn of risk areas of hazardous chemicals. Therefore, they are not conducive to the precise supervision by relevant units.

[0003] Currently, existing safety risk assessment methods typically employ static assessment approaches. However, this static approach cannot reflect the process safety risk levels in actual production processes and is cyclical, making it difficult to achieve process safety risk early warnings in a short period. Summary of the Invention

[0004] This invention provides a method for dynamic process safety risk classification and early warning in hazardous chemical enterprises. The main feature is that it can realize dynamic early warning of regional risk levels of hazardous chemical enterprises, thereby reflecting the process safety risk level in the actual production process, and ensuring the real-time nature of process safety risk early warning.

[0005] According to a first aspect of the present invention, a method for classifying and warning of regional dynamic process safety risks in hazardous chemical enterprises is provided, comprising:

[0006] Obtain regional process safety data and safety risk factor indicator systems from hazardous chemical enterprises;

[0007] Based on the regional process safety data, the safety risk element indicator system, and the preset risk probability rule table, the regional dynamic risk probability level of the hazardous chemical enterprise is determined;

[0008] Assess the regional inherent risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise, and determine the regional basic consequence level of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional inherent risk level;

[0009] Based on the regional dynamic risk probability level, the regional basic consequence level, and the preset regional risk level assessment matrix, dynamic early warning of risk classification is carried out to obtain the regional risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise.

[0010] According to a second aspect of the present invention, a dynamic process safety risk classification and early warning device for hazardous chemical enterprises is provided, comprising:

[0011] The acquisition unit is used to acquire regional process safety data and safety risk factor indicator systems of hazardous chemical enterprises.

[0012] The first determining unit is used to determine the regional dynamic risk probability level of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional process safety data, the safety risk element indicator system, and the preset risk probability rule table.

[0013] The second determining unit is used to assess the regional inherent risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise and determine the regional basic consequence level of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional inherent risk level.

[0014] The graded early warning unit is used to perform dynamic risk graded early warning based on the regional dynamic risk probability level, the regional basic consequence level, and the preset regional risk level assessment matrix, so as to obtain the regional risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise.

[0015] According to a third aspect of the present invention, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, on which a computer program is stored, which, when executed by a processor, performs the following steps:

[0016] Obtain regional process safety data and safety risk factor indicator systems from hazardous chemical enterprises;

[0017] Based on the regional process safety data, the safety risk element indicator system, and the preset risk probability rule table, the regional dynamic risk probability level of the hazardous chemical enterprise is determined;

[0018] Assess the regional inherent risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise, and determine the regional basic consequence level of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional inherent risk level;

[0019] Based on the regional dynamic risk probability level, the regional basic consequence level, and the preset regional risk level assessment matrix, dynamic early warning of risk classification is carried out to obtain the regional risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise.

[0020] According to a fourth aspect of the present invention, an electronic device is provided, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor executes the program to perform the following steps:

[0021] Obtain regional process safety data and safety risk factor indicator systems from hazardous chemical enterprises;

[0022] Based on the regional process safety data, the safety risk element indicator system, and the preset risk probability rule table, the regional dynamic risk probability level of the hazardous chemical enterprise is determined;

[0023] Assess the regional inherent risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise, and determine the regional basic consequence level of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional inherent risk level;

[0024] Based on the regional dynamic risk probability level, the regional basic consequence level, and the preset regional risk level assessment matrix, dynamic early warning of risk classification is carried out to obtain the regional risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise.

[0025] The innovative aspects of this invention include:

[0026] 1. This invention is based on the risk assessment theory of risk protection layers. It constructs a regional risk protection layer system through primary risk elements. The risk assessment of secondary and tertiary risk elements supports the risk assessment of primary risk elements. By establishing a multi-level safety risk element indicator system, it achieves the rational integration of various risk indicators in the risk areas of hazardous chemical enterprises. At the same time, it provides basic conditions for regional risk assessment of hazardous chemicals and solves the problem that the safety management evaluation system based on process safety management indicators in the existing technology is not suitable for risk assessment and classification.

[0027] 2. This invention, by constructing a risk coefficient and rule base, and utilizing methods such as probability rules, consequence rules, personnel activity consequence rules, critical event rules, and risk matrices, combined with a multi-level process safety risk element indicator system, realizes the quantification of the frequency, probability level, and consequence level of risk probability of various element indicators in the region. It solves the problems of traditional indicator assessment being highly subjective, requiring high professional expertise, and not conforming to risk assessment theory, and provides data support for the subsequent realization of regional dynamic process safety risk classification and early warning.

[0028] 3. This invention establishes a risk quantification assessment algorithm, combined with a regional process safety risk element indicator system, risk coefficients, and rule base, to achieve quantitative calculation of regional risk probability level and consequence level. By combining various rule algorithms and a large amount of dynamic real-time data, it performs regional dynamic process safety risk classification and early warning, solving the current problem that it cannot reflect the safety risk management level in the actual production process and cannot make an assessment in a short time.

[0029] This invention provides a method for regional dynamic process safety risk classification and early warning in hazardous chemical enterprises. Compared with existing technologies, this method can acquire regional process safety data and a safety risk element indicator system for hazardous chemical enterprises. Based on the regional process safety data, the safety risk element indicator system, and a preset risk probability rule table, it determines the regional dynamic risk probability level of the hazardous chemical enterprise. Simultaneously, it assesses the regional inherent risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise and determines the regional basic consequence level based on the regional inherent risk level. Finally, based on the regional dynamic risk probability level, the regional basic consequence level, and a preset regional risk level assessment matrix, it performs dynamic risk classification and early warning to obtain the regional risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise. Therefore, this invention, by establishing a safety risk element indicator system, various risk rules, and a regional risk level assessment matrix, combined with a large amount of dynamic real-time data, can achieve regional dynamic process safety risk classification and early warning for hazardous chemical enterprises. This reflects the process safety risk management level in actual production processes and ensures the real-time nature of process safety risk early warning.

[0030] The above description is only an overview of the technical solution of this application. In order to better understand the technical means of this application and to implement it in accordance with the contents of the specification, and to make the above and other objects, features and advantages of this application more obvious and understandable, the following are specific embodiments of this application. Attached Figure Description

[0031] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention or the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative effort.

[0032] Figure 1 This diagram illustrates a flowchart of a method for classifying and warning regional dynamic process safety risks in hazardous chemical enterprises, provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

[0033] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of the tiered early warning process provided in an embodiment of the present invention is shown;

[0034] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the protective layer funnel model provided in an embodiment of the present invention is shown;

[0035] Figure 4 This diagram illustrates a regional risk level assessment matrix provided in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0036] Figure 5This diagram illustrates the structure of a dynamic process safety risk classification and early warning device for hazardous chemical enterprises, provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

[0037] Figure 6 A schematic diagram of the physical structure of an electronic device provided by an embodiment of the present invention is shown. Detailed Implementation

[0038] The technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0039] It should be noted that the terms "comprising" and "having," and any variations thereof, in the embodiments and drawings of this invention are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion. For example, a process, method, system, product, or device that includes a series of steps or units is not limited to the steps or units listed, but may optionally include steps or units not listed, or may optionally include other steps or units inherent to these processes, methods, products, or devices.

[0040] Existing static assessment methods cannot reflect the level of process safety risk management in actual production processes, and are cyclical, making it difficult to achieve process safety risk early warning in a short period of time.

[0041] To overcome the above-mentioned shortcomings, embodiments of the present invention provide a method for classifying and warning of regional dynamic process safety risks in hazardous chemical enterprises, such as... Figure 1 As shown, the method includes:

[0042] Step 101: Obtain regional process safety data and safety risk factor indicator system for hazardous chemical enterprises.

[0043] The safety risk factor indicator system is divided into three levels: Level 1 risk factors, Level 2 risk factors, and Level 3 risk factors. Level 1 risk factors are established based on the risk protection layer theory, which consists of an initial risk, a protection layer, and enabling events forming a risk event protection barrier. Level 2 risk factors are the evaluation indicators of Level 1 risk factors, which can be reduced or expanded according to the dimensions and difficulty of data acquisition. The evaluation indicators of Level 2 risk factors are determined by Level 3 risk factors. The Level 3 risk factors for each Level 2 risk factor can also be reduced or expanded according to the conditions of data acquisition. The richness of Level 2 and Level 3 risk factors is related to the accuracy of Level 1 risk factor indicators. Each Level 2 and Level 3 risk factor will trigger subsequent changes in risk level.

[0044] This invention is primarily applicable to scenarios involving regional dynamic process safety risk classification and early warning for hazardous chemical enterprises. The implementing entity of this invention is a device or equipment capable of performing regional dynamic process safety risk classification and early warning.

[0045] To overcome the shortcomings of existing technologies that cannot reflect the actual process safety risk management level during production and cannot achieve process safety risk early warning in a short period of time, this invention, through the establishment of a safety risk element indicator system, various risk rules, and a regional risk level assessment matrix, combined with regional process safety data, can determine the regional dynamic risk probability level and regional consequence level of hazardous chemical enterprises. This enables regional dynamic process safety risk classification and early warning for hazardous chemical enterprises. The specific process is as follows: Figure 2 As shown.

[0046] The safety risk factor indicator system is pre-constructed. When constructing it, it can refer to risk analysis theory, process safety system, safety expert experience and historical accident information. The primary risk factors in the safety risk factor indicator system include inherent risk factors, safety management factors, automatic control factors, alarm management factors, safety interlock factors, safety equipment factors, operation management factors, and personnel activity factors. Except for inherent risk factors and personnel activity factors, the other primary risk factors have secondary risk factors, and some secondary risk factors may have tertiary risk factors.

[0047] Specifically, the primary risk elements are constructed based on the risk protection layer theory, including three types: initial risk, protection layer, and enabling event. The protection layer funnel model is as follows: Figure 3 As shown, inherent risk elements and safety management elements constitute the initial risk, which is the inherent risk caused by the characteristics of the equipment. Through safety management measures, the probability of an accident is reduced to a certain extent, forming the initial risk. Therefore, deficiencies in safety management can also lead to changes in the initial risk. Automatic control elements, alarm management elements, safety interlock elements, and safety equipment elements constitute the safety protection layer. Under the condition of initial risk, these four categories constitute layers of protection measures. When any link fails, it will not break through the entire protection layer. Only when all protection measures fail will the probability of an accident rise to the highest level. Operation management elements and personnel activity elements constitute enabling conditions. That is, the existence of operation activities will provide triggering conditions for the occurrence of events in the area. For example, hot work will increase the frequency of ignition failure, and the removal or installation of blind flanges will increase the frequency of leakage failure. Personnel activity will lead to exposure risk. That is, the activities of personnel in the area will increase the frequency of personnel exposure to accidents. At the same time, if personnel are injured or killed during the accident, the consequences of the accident will increase.

[0048] Among these, inherent risk factors, based on existing dual prevention mechanisms or the risk level of major hazard sources, can be divided into four categories: low risk, general risk, relatively high risk, and high risk. Specifically, the inherent risk level of a region can be comprehensively judged based on data such as the region's process hazard, fire hazard, whether it involves high temperature and high pressure, and the amount of hazardous chemicals stored. The level of inherent risk does not change with other factors; it is only related to the conditions at the initial design of the equipment. Therefore, inherent risk factors do not have secondary elements. For safety management factors, safety management risk involves all aspects of safety management except for the risk of increased risks. It is a soft indicator of safety risk management and a key link reflecting the level of regional safety management. For automatic control factors, the main considerations are the level of automation in process control and the characteristics of the production process. The higher the level of automation and the less human intervention, the lower the probability of accidents. For alarm management factors, alarms reflect the equipment's... The most direct indicator of abnormal conditions is the stability of equipment operation, which can be determined by assessing the alarm management level of each risk area. Regarding safety interlocks, these are crucial protective measures in the production process of hazardous chemical enterprises, enabling emergency shutdowns and preventing accidents in case of equipment malfunction. For safety equipment, physical safety devices such as safety valves, pressure relief valves, and nitrogen blanketing devices act as physical protective layers, the last line of defense when all other safety measures fail. Regarding work management, accidents in hazardous chemical enterprises caused by work processes have been a major factor in recent years, especially hot work and confined space operations. The presence of high-risk operations within the area and the corresponding management capabilities are key factors determining the level of risk control in that area. Regarding personnel activity, personnel activity within the area is a major factor contributing to the severity of accident consequences. Furthermore, the number of personnel within the area affects the frequency of exposure to potential failures around accidents.

[0049] Furthermore, there are no secondary risk elements among the inherent risk factors. As basic risks, they can participate in subsequent assessments. According to the requirements of risk classification and control, the inherent risks of the region are divided into four levels: low risk, general risk, relatively high risk, and high risk.

[0050] The secondary risk elements corresponding to safety management elements include hazard identification and mitigation, change management, equipment integrity, and incident management. Among these, the tertiary risk elements corresponding to hazard identification and mitigation include hazard identification completion rate and the number of unrectified general hazards. For the hazard identification completion rate, the completion status is tracked according to the hazard identification plan; the lower the rate, the greater the likelihood of an accident. For the number of unrectified general hazards, the greater the number of identified general hazards, the greater the likelihood of an accident. The tertiary risk elements corresponding to change management elements include change time and change quantity. For the change time element, the shorter the interval between the most recent change and the current date, the higher the likelihood of an accident caused by the change. For the change quantity element, the more changes occurred in the regional equipment over the past three months, the greater the uncertainty risk and the higher the likelihood of an accident. The three-tiered risk factors corresponding to the equipment integrity element include the equipment commissioning time element and the equipment timely maintenance completion rate element. For the equipment commissioning time element, the longer the equipment has been in operation, the more severe the aging, and the greater the probability of an accident. For the equipment timely maintenance completion rate element, timely maintenance can prevent accidents caused by equipment failure; the lower the timely maintenance rate, the greater the probability of equipment failure and the greater the likelihood of an accident. The three-tiered risk factors corresponding to the accident and incident management element include the number of near misses in the past year and the number of general accidents in the past year. For the number of near misses in the past year, the more near misses, the greater the frequency of potential failures. For the number of general accidents in the past year, the more general accidents, the greater the frequency of potential failures.

[0051] The secondary risk factors corresponding to automatic control elements include control method, number of control loops, effective automation rate, and production process mode. For the control method factor, using a control system helps reduce the probability of accidents, and vice versa. For the number of control loops factor, a larger number of control loops indicates that, to some extent, the number of human interventions can be reduced, thus lowering the accident rate. For the effective automation rate factor, it equals the ratio of effective control loops to the total number of control loops multiplied by 100%, representing the percentage of qualified loops with effective control. A higher effective automation rate indicates a higher level of automation and a relatively lower probability of accidents. For the production process mode factor, relatively speaking, the number of human interventions in continuous production processes is far lower than in intermittent production processes. More human intervention increases the probability of accidents; therefore, the probability of accidents will vary depending on the production process.

[0052] The secondary risk factors corresponding to alarm management elements include average response time, alarm flooding rate, average disturbance rate, and high-risk alarm trigger rate. For the average response time factor, the sum of alarm handling times in the region over the past 30 days divided by the sum of alarm handling records represents the timeliness of alarm handling within the region. An acceptable response time indicates timely handling and a relatively low probability of accidents; conversely, an untimely response indicates a relatively high probability of accidents. For the alarm flooding rate factor, the percentage of days in which the number of alarms per day (e.g., 144) is greater than or equal to the acceptable number represents the percentage of days in which the number of alarms (alarms per 10 minutes) in the region exceeds the team's capacity. A higher rate indicates greater alarm pressure in the region and a relatively higher probability of accidents, and vice versa. For the average disturbance rate factor… The rate factor is calculated as the number of monitoring points with five or more alarms on a given day / the total number of monitoring points in the area × 100%. This represents the proportion of uncontrollable monitoring points in the area on that day. The higher the index, the more uncontrollable monitoring points there are, the worse the device stability is, and the higher the probability of an accident. The high-risk alarm trigger rate factor is equal to the number of high-risk alarms triggered in the area in the past 30 days / the total number of alarms in the area × 100%. High-risk alarms include level one alarms (emergency alarms) and level two alarms (important alarms) in the alarm priority settings. This index reflects the abnormal operation of the device in the area. The higher the index, the more frequently high-risk alarms are triggered, and the higher the probability of an accident is, and vice versa.

[0053] The secondary risk factors corresponding to safety interlock elements include the safety interlock activation rate, SIF circuit level distribution, and safety instrument commonality. Specifically, the safety interlock activation rate is calculated as the number of safety interlocks in use within the area divided by the total number of safety interlocks in the area, multiplied by 100%. For the SIF circuit level distribution, circuit levels are divided into SIL1, SIL2, SIL3, and SIL4; higher levels indicate a lower probability of accidents in the area, and vice versa. The safety instrument commonality factor is divided into three categories: shared, partially shared, and not shared, representing whether safety instruments and control instruments are shared. Shared instruments indicate a relatively higher probability of accidents, and vice versa.

[0054] The secondary risk factors corresponding to safety equipment elements include the safety equipment inspection pass rate element and the safety equipment overdue inspection quantity element. Among them, the safety equipment inspection pass rate element is equal to the number of qualified inspections of all safety equipment (safety valves, pressure relief valves, nitrogen seals, etc.) in the region / the total number of safety equipment in the region × 100%; the safety equipment overdue inspection quantity element is essentially the number of safety equipment in the region that has exceeded its inspection period.

[0055] The secondary risk elements corresponding to the work management elements include work activity type, work activity integrity, and contractor management. For the work activity type element, the type of work within a region increases the probability of accidents. Different work types result in different probability levels, with high-risk work having a relatively higher probability. Cross-operation also increases the probability of accidents. For the work activity integrity element, whether pre-operation, during-operation, and post-operation risk analyses are conducted during the work permit issuance process within a region affects the safe conduct of work activities. Incomplete work activities may lead to accidents. The tertiary risk elements corresponding to the work activity integrity element include JSA (Job Safety Analysis) risk analysis and process gas monitoring. For the JSA risk analysis element, whether a JSA is conducted for special operations is a prerequisite for ensuring controllable work activity risks. If a JSA pre-operation risk analysis is not conducted for work activities in the current region, the possibility of accidents is relatively high. For the process gas monitoring element, gas monitoring must be conducted according to the prescribed cycle during the operation. Failure to conduct gas monitoring increases the likelihood of accidents. Regarding contractor management factors, a significant portion of historical operational accidents were caused by contractors' violations of regulations, thus operations involving contractors carry relatively high risks.

[0056] Personnel activity factors do not have secondary risk factors. As dynamic activity risks, they participate in subsequent assessments. Based on the preset regional risk level assessment matrix and the requirements of relevant policy documents, the number of personnel in the region is divided into four ranges: 0-2, 3-9, 10-30, and 30 or more.

[0057] The regional process safety data corresponding to the above-mentioned risk factors can be collected in real time during actual production. Specifically, the regional process safety data includes the completion rate of hazard investigation, the number of unrectified general hazards, change time, change quantity, equipment commissioning time, timely maintenance completion rate of equipment, number of near misses in the past year, number of general accidents in the past year, control method, number of control loops, effective automatic control rate, production process mode, average response time, alarm proliferation rate, average disturbance rate, high-risk alarm trigger rate, safety interlock activation rate, SIF loop level distribution, safety instrument commonality, safety equipment inspection pass rate, number of overdue safety equipment inspections, type of work activity, whether JSA risk analysis exists, whether process gas monitoring exists, number of personnel activities, etc.

[0058] Furthermore, in order to quantify the risk assessment, this embodiment of the invention also requires the pre-construction of a risk rule base. According to risk assessment theory, risk equals probability multiplied by consequence. Therefore, it is necessary to create a preset risk probability rule table and a preset consequence rule table in the risk rule base, as shown in Tables 1 and 2. The preset risk probability rule table records qualitative description information and probability frequency ranges corresponding to different probability levels, and the preset consequence rule table records the health and safety impacts and property loss impacts corresponding to different regional consequence levels.

[0059] Table 1

[0060]

[0061] Table 2

[0062]

[0063]

[0064] Furthermore, based on the aforementioned pre-defined risk probability rule table and pre-defined consequence rule table, a pre-defined regional risk level assessment matrix is ​​constructed, such as... Figure 4 As shown, regional risks can be divided into multiple levels based on the likelihood level and the regional consequence level. Different shaded areas represent different risk levels, and the risk level of the shaded areas gradually increases from the upper left to the lower right corner of the table.

[0065] Furthermore, this embodiment of the invention also requires the pre-creation of a risk coefficient library, which records the weight values ​​corresponding to each secondary and tertiary risk element. Primary risk elements do not have weight values. The failure probability frequency of inherent risk elements and the personnel exposure probability frequency of personnel activity elements can be directly determined. The probability frequencies of other primary risk elements need to be calculated using secondary and tertiary risk elements. Specifically, the sum of the weight values ​​of the secondary risk elements corresponding to a primary risk element is 1. For secondary risk elements with tertiary risk elements, the risk probability frequency of the secondary risk element is calculated using the tertiary risk elements, and the sum of the weight values ​​of the tertiary risk elements corresponding to the secondary risk element is 1.

[0066] Step 102: Determine the regional dynamic risk probability level of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional process safety data, the safety risk element indicator system, and the preset risk probability rule table.

[0067] In this embodiment of the invention, when performing dynamic risk classification and early warning, step 102 specifically includes: calculating the regional dynamic risk probability frequency of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional process safety data and the safety risk element indicator system; determining the regional dynamic risk probability level of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional dynamic risk probability frequency and the preset risk probability rule table, wherein the preset risk probability rule table records the probability level and qualitative description information corresponding to different risk probability frequency ranges.

[0068] Further, the step of calculating the regional dynamic risk probability frequency of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional process safety data and the safety risk element indicator system includes: determining the risk probability frequency corresponding to each primary risk element in the safety risk element indicator system based on the regional process safety data; and multiplying the risk probability frequencies corresponding to each primary risk element to obtain the regional dynamic risk probability frequency of the hazardous chemical enterprise.

[0069] Further, determining the risk probability frequency corresponding to each primary risk element in the safety risk element indicator system based on the regional process safety data includes: when each primary risk element includes an inherent risk element, querying the preset regional risk level assessment matrix based on the regional inherent risk level corresponding to the inherent risk element to determine the risk probability frequency corresponding to the inherent risk element; when each primary risk element includes a personnel activity element, determining the risk probability frequency corresponding to the personnel activity element based on the number of personnel in the regional process safety data; when each primary risk element includes automatic control elements, alarm management elements, safety interlock elements, and safety equipment elements, determining the risk probability frequency of the secondary risk elements corresponding to the automatic control elements, alarm management elements, safety interlock elements, and safety equipment elements respectively based on the regional process safety data, and determining the risk probability frequency of the secondary risk elements corresponding to the automatic control elements, alarm management elements, safety interlock elements, and safety equipment elements based on the automatic control elements, alarm management elements, safety interlock elements, and safety equipment elements respectively, and determining the risk probability frequency of the secondary risk elements corresponding to the automatic control elements, alarm management elements, safety interlock elements, and safety equipment elements respectively based on the automatic control elements, alarm management elements, safety interlock elements, and safety equipment elements. The risk probability frequency and weight value of the secondary risk elements corresponding to the automatic control element, alarm management element, safety interlock element, and safety equipment element are used to calculate the risk probability frequency corresponding to each of the three elements. When each primary risk element includes a safety management element and an operation management element, the risk probability frequency of the tertiary elements under the secondary elements corresponding to the safety management element and the operation management element is determined based on the regional process safety data. Based on the risk probability frequency and weight value of the tertiary elements, the risk probability frequency of the secondary elements corresponding to the safety management element and the operation management element is calculated. Finally, based on the risk probability frequency and weight value of the secondary elements corresponding to the safety management element and the operation management element, the risk probability frequency of each element is calculated.

[0070] Specifically, when determining the probability frequency corresponding to an inherent risk element, the inherent risk level of the hazardous chemical area can be assessed first. For example, when the inherent risk level is high, the corresponding preset area risk level assessment matrix is ​​the shaded area in the lower right corner. Based on this high-risk shaded area, the basic consequence level of the area corresponding to the hazardous chemical area can be determined to be level D, and the corresponding probability levels are level 7 and level 8. Specifically, a probability frequency value can be selected from the probability frequency range corresponding to level 7 and level 8 according to the actual business situation as the risk probability frequency corresponding to the inherent risk element.

[0071] This invention not only allows for real-time determination of the risk probability frequency corresponding to inherent risk elements through the aforementioned methods, but also pre-sets the risk probability frequency and regional basic consequence level corresponding to different inherent risk levels. For example, a high risk corresponds to a risk probability frequency of P11, with a corresponding regional basic consequence level of D; a relatively high risk corresponds to a risk probability frequency of P12, with a corresponding regional basic consequence level of C; a moderate risk corresponds to a risk probability frequency of P13, with a corresponding regional basic consequence level of B; and a low risk corresponds to a risk probability frequency of P14, with a corresponding regional basic consequence level of A. Specifically, when conducting dynamic graded early warning, the risk probability frequency corresponding to inherent risk elements can be directly determined based on the inherent risk level of the assessed hazardous chemical area.

[0072] Furthermore, when determining the risk probability frequency corresponding to safety management elements and operational management elements, a risk coefficient database can be consulted to determine the weight values ​​of each secondary risk element corresponding to the safety management element and operational management element, as well as the weight values ​​of the tertiary risk elements corresponding to each secondary risk element. Simultaneously, based on the interval to which the regional process safety data corresponding to the tertiary risk element belongs, the risk probability frequency corresponding to the tertiary risk element is determined.

[0073] For safety management elements, the weight values ​​for the secondary risk elements—hazard identification and remediation, change management, equipment integrity, and incident management—are K21, K22, K23, and K24, respectively. For the tertiary risk elements of hazard identification and remediation, the weight values ​​for the hazard identification completion rate and the number of unrectified general hazards are K211 and K212, respectively. Based on the range to which the hazard identification completion rate (regional process safety data) belongs, the risk probability frequency corresponding to the hazard identification completion rate element is determined. For example, when the hazard identification completion rate is less than 50%, the corresponding risk probability frequency is 0.8; when the hazard identification completion rate is between 50% and 70%, the corresponding risk probability frequency is 0.5; when the hazard identification completion rate is between 70% and 90%, the corresponding risk probability frequency is 0.3; when the hazard identification completion rate is greater than 90%, the corresponding risk probability frequency is 0.1, and so on. In addition, the risk probability frequency corresponding to the number of unrectified general hazards is equal to the risk probability frequency of a single general hazard multiplied by the number of unrectified general hazards. When the number of unrectified general hazards is 0, the corresponding risk probability frequency is 0.1, and the maximum value is 1.

[0074] The weight values ​​for the three-level risk elements of change management, namely change time element and change quantity element, are K221 and K222, respectively. The risk probability frequency corresponding to the change time element is determined according to the interval to which the change time belongs. In addition, the risk probability frequency corresponding to the change quantity element is equal to the failure probability frequency of a single change multiplied by the change quantity. When the change quantity is 0, its corresponding risk probability frequency is 0.1, and the maximum value is 1.

[0075] The weight values ​​for the three-level risk elements of equipment integrity, namely the equipment commissioning time element and the equipment timely maintenance completion rate element, are K231 and K232, respectively. Based on the interval to which the equipment commissioning time belongs, the risk probability frequency corresponding to the equipment commissioning time element is determined. In addition, based on the interval to which the equipment timely maintenance completion rate belongs, the risk probability frequency corresponding to the equipment timely maintenance completion rate element is determined.

[0076] The weight values ​​for the three-level risk elements of accident and incident management, namely the number of near misses and the number of general accidents in the past year, are K241 and K242, respectively. The risk probability frequency corresponding to the number of near misses in the past year is equal to the failure probability frequency of a single near miss multiplied by the number of near misses, with a maximum value of 1. In addition, the risk probability frequency corresponding to the number of general accidents in the past year is equal to the failure probability frequency of a single general accident multiplied by the number of general accidents, with a maximum value of 1.

[0077] For the work management element, the weight values ​​for the secondary risk elements—work type element, work activity integrity element, and contractor management element—are K71, K72, and K73, respectively. The risk probability frequency for the work type element is calculated as (∑ ignition failure probability frequency × work type + ∑ poisoning / asphyxiation failure probability frequency × work type) × cross-work coefficient, with a maximum value of 1. For the work activity integrity element, the weight values ​​for the tertiary risk elements—JSA risk analysis element and process gas monitoring element—are K721 and K722, respectively. The risk probability frequency for the JSA risk analysis element is calculated as: failure probability frequency of work activities that have undergone JSA risk analysis × number of work activities that have undergone JSA risk analysis + failure probability frequency of work activities that have not undergone JSA risk analysis × number of work activities that have not undergone JSA risk analysis, with a maximum value of 1. The risk probability frequency for the process gas monitoring element is calculated as: failure probability frequency of work activities that normally undergo gas monitoring × number of work activities that normally undergo gas monitoring + failure probability frequency of work activities that do not normally undergo gas monitoring × number of work activities that do not normally undergo gas monitoring, with a maximum value of 1. The frequency of risk probability corresponding to the contractor management element = frequency of failure of operations with contractor participation in the region × number of operations with contractor participation in the region + frequency of failure of operations without contractor participation in the region × number of operations without contractor participation in the region, with a maximum value of 1.

[0078] Furthermore, when determining the risk probability frequencies corresponding to automatic control elements, alarm management elements, safety interlock elements, and safety equipment elements, a risk coefficient database can be consulted to determine the weight values ​​of each secondary risk element corresponding to these elements. Simultaneously, based on the interval to which the regional process safety data corresponding to the secondary risk element belongs, the risk probability frequency corresponding to that secondary risk element is determined.

[0079] For automatic control elements, the weight values ​​for the secondary risk elements—control method element, number of control loops element, effective automatic control rate element, and generation process mode element—are K31, K32, K33, and K34, respectively. For the control method element, the risk probability frequency corresponding to the automatic control element can be determined based on the risk probability frequency corresponding to the automatic control method and the risk probability frequency corresponding to the non-automatic control method. For the number of control loops element, the risk probability frequency corresponding to the number of control loops is equal to the reduced failure probability frequency of a single control loop multiplied by the number of control loops, with a minimum value of 0.1. For the effective automatic control rate element, the risk probability frequency corresponding to the effective automatic control rate element can be determined based on the range to which the effective automatic control rate belongs. For the generation process mode element, the risk probability failure frequency corresponding to the generation process mode element can be determined based on the generation process type (continuous or intermittent).

[0080] For alarm management elements, the weight values ​​for the secondary risk elements—average response time, alarm flooding rate, average disturbance rate, and high-risk alarm trigger rate—are K41, K42, K43, and K44, respectively. For the average response time element, the risk probability frequency can be determined based on the interval to which the average response time belongs; for the alarm flooding rate element, the risk probability frequency can be determined based on the interval to which the alarm flooding rate belongs; for the average disturbance rate element, the risk probability frequency can be determined based on the interval to which the alarm flooding rate belongs; and for the high-risk alarm trigger rate element, the risk probability frequency can be determined based on the interval to which the high-risk alarm trigger rate belongs.

[0081] For safety interlocking elements, the weight values ​​for the secondary risk elements—safety interlocking activation rate, SIF circuit level distribution, and safety instrument commonality—are K51, K52, and K53, respectively. For the safety interlocking activation rate element, the risk probability frequency corresponding to the activation rate can be determined based on the interval to which it belongs. For the SIF circuit level distribution element, the failure probability frequency for each circuit can be pre-set; the risk probability frequency corresponding to the SIF circuit level distribution element is calculated as: ∑ failure probability frequency of different circuit levels × number of corresponding circuits, with a maximum value of 1. For the safety instrument commonality element, the risk probability frequency corresponding to the safety instrument commonality element can be determined based on the safety instrument commonality.

[0082] For the safety equipment element, the weight values ​​for the secondary risk elements, the safety equipment inspection pass rate and the number of overdue safety equipment inspections, are K61 and K62, respectively. For the safety equipment inspection pass rate element, the risk probability frequency can be determined based on the range to which the safety equipment inspection pass rate falls. For the number of overdue safety equipment inspections, the risk probability frequency is calculated as follows: risk probability frequency = probability frequency of overdue failure of a single piece of equipment multiplied by the number of overdue safety equipment. When the number is 0, the risk probability frequency is 0.1, and the maximum risk probability frequency is 1.

[0083] Furthermore, when determining the risk probability frequency corresponding to personnel activity elements, the personnel exposure probability frequency, i.e., the risk probability frequency, can be determined based on the range to which the number of people in the area belongs. For example, when the number of people in the area is between 0 and 2, the personnel exposure probability frequency is A81; when the number of people in the area is between 3 and 9, the personnel exposure probability frequency is A82; when the number of people in the area is between 10 and 30, the personnel exposure probability frequency is A83; and when the number of people in the area exceeds 30, the personnel exposure probability frequency is A84.

[0084] In this embodiment of the invention, for a secondary risk element that has a tertiary risk element, the corresponding risk probability frequency is calculated based on the risk probability frequency and weight value corresponding to the tertiary risk element, as shown in the following formula.

[0085] P ij =∑K ijn ×P ijn

[0086] Among them, P ij The risk probability frequency corresponds to the secondary risk element, where i ranges from 1 to 8, and j varies depending on the number of secondary indicators; K ijnHere, i represents the weighting value of the tertiary risk element, with i ranging from 1 to 8, j varying according to the number of secondary indicators, and n varying according to the number of tertiary indicators; P ijn The risk probability frequency corresponds to the three-level risk elements, where i ranges from 1 to 8, j varies depending on the number of secondary indicators, and n varies depending on the number of tertiary indicators.

[0087] Furthermore, for a primary risk element that has secondary risk elements, its corresponding risk probability frequency is calculated based on the risk probability frequency and weight value corresponding to the secondary risk element, as shown in the following formula:

[0088] P i =∑K ij ×P ij

[0089] Among them, P i The risk probability frequency corresponding to the primary risk element, where i ranges from 1 to 8; P ij The risk probability frequency corresponds to the secondary risk element, where i ranges from 1 to 8, and j varies depending on the number of secondary indicators; K ij The weight values ​​corresponding to the secondary risk elements are i, which range from 1 to 8, and j varies depending on the number of secondary indicators.

[0090] Furthermore, after determining the risk probability frequency corresponding to each primary risk element, the risk probability frequencies corresponding to each primary risk element are multiplied together to obtain the regional dynamic risk probability frequency of hazardous chemical enterprises. The specific formula is as follows.

[0091] P=P1×P2×P3×P4×P5×P6×P7×P8

[0092] Among them, P1, P2, P3, P4, P5, P6, P7 and P8 represent the risk probability frequency of each primary risk element, and P is the regional dynamic risk probability frequency of the hazardous chemical enterprise.

[0093] Furthermore, after determining the frequency of regional dynamic risk probability for hazardous chemical enterprises, the regional dynamic risk probability level of hazardous chemical enterprises is determined by consulting the preset risk probability rule table (Table 1).

[0094] In embodiments of the present invention, a leap-level rule for probability levels can be set based on relevant regulations and high-frequency accident information, and the determined regional dynamic risk probability level can be leap-level processed according to the leap-level rule. Based on this, the method further includes: responding to a regional critical event, performing a leap-level processing on the regional dynamic risk probability level according to a preset leap-level rule to obtain a leaped probability level.

[0095] For example, if the alarm duration for combustible gas in the area exceeds 10 minutes, the risk level will be raised by one level; if the gas inspection for special operations in the area fails, the risk level will be raised by two levels.

[0096] It should be noted that the tiered rules for critical events are implemented based on the preset risk probability rule table, and can be set according to actual business needs.

[0097] Step 103: Assess the regional inherent risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise, and determine the regional basic consequence level of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional inherent risk level.

[0098] In this embodiment of the invention, when classifying consequences, the basic regional consequence level of a hazardous chemical enterprise can be determined based on the inherent risk level of the region. For example, when the inherent risk level of the region is high, the basic regional consequence level is level D; when the inherent risk level of the region is relatively high, the basic regional consequence level is level C; when the inherent risk level of the region is moderate, the basic regional consequence level is level B; and when the inherent risk level of the region is low, the basic regional consequence level is level A.

[0099] Furthermore, embodiments of the present invention can also adjust the obtained regional basic consequence level according to the accident consequence rules. Based on this, the method includes: upgrading the regional basic consequence level according to the range of the number of personnel in the regional process safety data to obtain the regional consequence level of the hazardous chemical enterprise.

[0100] For example, when the number of people in the area is between 0 and 2, the area consequence level remains unchanged; when the number of people in the area is between 3 and 9, the area consequence level increases by one level; when the number of people in the area is between 10 and 30, the area consequence level increases by two levels; and when the number of people in the area exceeds 30, the area consequence level increases by three levels.

[0101] Step 104: Based on the regional dynamic risk probability level, the regional basic consequence level, and the preset regional risk level assessment matrix, perform dynamic risk classification early warning to obtain the regional risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise.

[0102] In this embodiment of the invention, after adjusting the risk probability level and the regional basic consequence level, the regional risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise can be determined by querying the preset regional risk level assessment matrix based on the improved probability level and regional consequence level.

[0103] like Figure 4As shown, the risk of the entire area is divided into four levels: major risk, significant risk, general risk, and low risk. The risk level varies depending on which area falls within the shaded zone. This embodiment of the invention, through dynamic risk classification and early warning for hazardous chemical areas, facilitates regulators and managers in focusing on high-risk areas.

[0104] To clarify the specific process of the above solution, this embodiment of the invention conducts regional scenario simulations. The risk factor data for a methanol-to-olefins (MTO) unit area of ​​a chemical enterprise under different scenarios are shown in the table below.

[0105] Table 3

[0106]

[0107]

[0108] The table above is divided into four scenarios, all of which are high-risk scenarios. The various risk factors differ in different scenarios. The differences are indicated by numbers, and the same applies to the same areas.

[0109] Scenario 1 represents a high level of management for all management indicators and protection layer information, and there are no special operational situations in the area. Although the inherent risk is high, the frequency of the possibility in the area is controlled at a low level, and the dynamic risk level of the area is low.

[0110] Scenario 2 represents deficiencies in various management indicators and some protection layer management, such as hazard investigation and management, equipment integrity, alarm management, and effective self-control rate, which have not reached good standards. Compared with Scenario 1, this will lead to an increase in the frequency of potential risks in the area, and the corresponding dynamic risk level of the area will be upgraded to general risk.

[0111] Scenario 3 represents a scenario where, in addition to Scenario 2, there are special operations in the area, namely Level 1 hot work and temporary power supply. These special operations will cause the probability frequency to rise rapidly, from 2.17464E-05 to 1.08732E-03, and the risk probability level will also be upgraded from Level 3 to Level 5. At the same time, due to the presence of workers at the work site, the number of people in the area will increase, so the area consequence level will be upgraded from Level D to Level E. Due to multiple factors, the dynamic risk level of the area in Scenario 3 will be upgraded to a relatively high risk.

[0112] Scenario 4 represents the situation in Scenario 3. If a large number of people are involved in the special operation process, that is, the number of people in the area reaches 10, this will lead to an increase in the frequency of personnel exposure and a further upgrade in the regional consequence level, that is, from E to F. Although the risk probability level has not been upgraded, the frequency of possibility has also increased, ultimately causing the regional dynamic risk level of Scenario 4 to be upgraded to a major risk.

[0113] As can be seen from the above scenarios one through four, the embodiments of the present invention can realize the dynamic change of regional risks.

[0114] This invention provides a method for regional dynamic process safety risk classification and early warning for hazardous chemical enterprises. By establishing a safety risk element indicator system, various risk rules, and a regional risk level assessment matrix, combined with a large amount of dynamic real-time data, it can realize regional dynamic process safety risk classification and early warning for hazardous chemical enterprises. This can reflect the process safety risk management level in the actual production process and ensure the real-time nature of process safety risk early warning.

[0115] Furthermore, as Figure 1 In specific implementation, embodiments of the present invention provide a regional dynamic process safety risk classification and early warning device for hazardous chemical enterprises, such as... Figure 5 As shown, the device includes: an acquisition unit 31, a first determination unit 32, a second determination unit 33, and a graded early warning unit 34.

[0116] The acquisition unit 31 can be used to acquire regional process safety data and safety risk factor indicator system of hazardous chemical enterprises.

[0117] The first determining unit 32 can be used to determine the regional dynamic risk probability level of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional process safety data, the safety risk element indicator system, and the preset risk probability rule table.

[0118] The second determining unit 33 can be used to assess the regional inherent risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise and determine the regional basic consequence level of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional inherent risk level.

[0119] The graded early warning unit 34 can be used to perform risk graded dynamic early warning based on the regional dynamic risk probability level, the regional basic consequence level and the preset regional risk level assessment matrix, so as to obtain the regional risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise.

[0120] In a specific application scenario, the first determining unit 32 includes: a calculation module and a first determining module.

[0121] The calculation module can be used to calculate the regional dynamic risk probability frequency of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional process safety data and the safety risk element indicator system.

[0122] The first determining module can be used to determine the regional dynamic risk probability level of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional dynamic risk probability frequency and the preset risk probability rule table, wherein the preset risk probability rule table records the probability level and qualitative description information corresponding to different risk probability frequency ranges.

[0123] Furthermore, the calculation module includes: a determination submodule and a multiplication submodule.

[0124] The determination submodule can be used to determine the risk probability frequency corresponding to each primary risk element in the safety risk element indicator system based on the regional process safety data.

[0125] The multiplication submodule can be used to multiply the risk probability frequencies corresponding to each primary risk element to obtain the regional dynamic risk probability frequency of the hazardous chemical enterprise.

[0126] Furthermore, the determining submodule can be specifically used to: when each primary risk element includes an inherent risk element, query the preset regional risk level assessment matrix based on the regional inherent risk level corresponding to the inherent risk element to determine the risk probability frequency corresponding to the inherent risk element; when each primary risk element includes a personnel activity element, determine the risk probability frequency corresponding to the personnel activity element based on the number of personnel in the regional process safety data; when each primary risk element includes an automatic control element, an alarm management element, a safety interlock element, and a safety equipment element, determine the risk probability frequency of the secondary risk elements corresponding to the automatic control element, the alarm management element, the safety interlock element, and the safety equipment element respectively based on the regional process safety data, and determine the risk probability frequency of the secondary risk elements corresponding to the automatic control element, the alarm management element, the safety interlock element, and the safety equipment element based on the automatic control element, the alarm management element, the safety interlock element, and the safety equipment element respectively. The risk probability frequency and weight value of the secondary risk elements corresponding to the elements and the safety equipment elements are used to calculate the risk probability frequency corresponding to the automatic control element, the alarm management element, the safety interlock element, and the safety equipment element, respectively. When each primary risk element includes a safety management element and an operation management element, the risk probability frequency of the tertiary elements under the secondary elements corresponding to the safety management element and the operation management element is determined based on the regional process safety data. Based on the risk probability frequency and weight value of the tertiary elements, the risk probability frequency of the secondary elements corresponding to the safety management element and the operation management element is calculated. Based on the risk probability frequency and weight value of the secondary elements corresponding to the safety management element and the operation management element, the risk probability frequency corresponding to the safety management element and the operation management element is calculated.

[0127] In specific application scenarios, the device further includes a step-up unit.

[0128] The step-up unit can be used to respond to key regional events and, according to preset step-up rules, perform step-up processing on the dynamic risk probability level of the region to obtain the step-up probability level.

[0129] In specific application scenarios, the device further includes an upgrade unit.

[0130] The upgrade unit is used to upgrade the basic consequence level of the region based on the range of the number of personnel in the region in the regional process safety data, so as to obtain the regional consequence level of the hazardous chemical enterprise.

[0131] In specific application scenarios, the graded early warning unit 34 can be used to query the preset regional risk level assessment matrix based on the probability level after the jump and the regional consequence level to determine the regional risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise.

[0132] It should be noted that other corresponding descriptions of the functional modules involved in the dynamic process safety risk classification and early warning device for hazardous chemical enterprises provided in this embodiment of the invention can be found in the following references. Figure 1 The corresponding description of the method shown will not be repeated here.

[0133] Based on the above, Figure 1 Accordingly, this embodiment of the invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program that, when executed by a processor, performs the following steps: acquiring regional process safety data and a safety risk element indicator system for a hazardous chemical enterprise; determining the regional dynamic risk probability level of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional process safety data, the safety risk element indicator system, and a preset risk probability rule table; assessing the regional inherent risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise and determining the regional basic consequence level of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional inherent risk level; and performing dynamic risk classification early warning based on the regional dynamic risk probability level, the regional basic consequence level, and a preset regional risk level assessment matrix to obtain the regional risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise.

[0134] Based on the above, Figure 1 The method shown and as Figure 5 The embodiment of the device shown in the invention also provides a physical structural diagram of an electronic device, such as... Figure 6As shown, the electronic device includes: a processor 41, a memory 42, and a computer program stored in the memory 42 and executable on the processor. Both the memory 42 and the processor 41 are mounted on a bus 43. When the processor 41 executes the program, it performs the following steps: acquiring regional process safety data and a safety risk factor indicator system for a hazardous chemical enterprise; determining the regional dynamic risk probability level of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional process safety data, the safety risk factor indicator system, and a preset risk probability rule table; assessing the regional inherent risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise and determining the regional basic consequence level of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional inherent risk level; and performing dynamic risk classification early warning based on the regional dynamic risk probability level, the regional basic consequence level, and a preset regional risk level assessment matrix to obtain the regional risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise.

[0135] This invention, through the establishment of a safety risk element indicator system, various risk rules, and a regional risk level assessment matrix, combined with a large amount of dynamic real-time data, can realize regional dynamic process safety risk classification and early warning for hazardous chemical enterprises. This can reflect the process safety risk management level in the actual production process and ensure the real-time nature of process safety risk early warning.

[0136] Those skilled in the art will understand that the accompanying drawings are merely schematic diagrams of one embodiment, and the modules or processes shown in the drawings are not necessarily essential for implementing the present invention.

[0137] Those skilled in the art will understand that the modules in the apparatus of the embodiments can be distributed in the apparatus of the embodiments as described in the embodiments, or they can be located in one or more devices different from this embodiment with corresponding changes. The modules of the above embodiments can be combined into one module, or they can be further divided into multiple sub-modules.

[0138] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, and not to limit them; although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that modifications can still be made to the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments, or equivalent substitutions can be made to some of the technical features; and these modifications or substitutions do not cause the essence of the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for classifying and early warning of regional dynamic process safety risks in hazardous chemical enterprises, characterized in that, include: Obtain regional process safety data and safety risk factor indicator systems from hazardous chemical enterprises; Based on the regional process safety data, the safety risk element indicator system, and the preset risk probability rule table, the regional dynamic risk probability level of the hazardous chemical enterprise is determined; Assess the regional inherent risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise, and determine the regional basic consequence level of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional inherent risk level; Based on the regional dynamic risk probability level, the regional basic consequence level, and the preset regional risk level assessment matrix, dynamic risk classification and early warning are performed to obtain the regional risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise. The step of determining the regional dynamic risk probability level of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional process safety data, the safety risk element indicator system, and the preset risk probability rule table includes: determining the risk probability frequency corresponding to each primary risk element in the safety risk element indicator system based on the regional process safety data; multiplying the risk probability frequencies corresponding to each primary risk element to obtain the regional dynamic risk probability frequency of the hazardous chemical enterprise; and determining the regional dynamic risk probability level of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional dynamic risk probability frequency and the preset risk probability rule table, wherein the preset risk probability rule table records the probability level and qualitative description information corresponding to different risk probability frequency ranges. Specifically, determining the risk probability frequency corresponding to each primary risk element in the safety risk element indicator system based on the regional process safety data includes: when each primary risk element includes an inherent risk element, querying the preset regional risk level assessment matrix based on the regional inherent risk level corresponding to the inherent risk element to determine the risk probability frequency corresponding to the inherent risk element; when each primary risk element includes a personnel activity element, determining the risk probability frequency corresponding to the personnel activity element based on the number of regional personnel in the regional process safety data.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The step of determining the risk probability frequency corresponding to each primary risk element in the safety risk element indicator system based on the regional process safety data further includes: When each of the primary risk elements includes automatic control elements, alarm management elements, safety interlock elements, and safety equipment elements, the risk probability frequency of the secondary risk elements corresponding to the automatic control elements, alarm management elements, safety interlock elements, and safety equipment elements is determined based on the regional process safety data. Furthermore, based on the risk probability frequency and weight value of the secondary risk elements corresponding to the automatic control elements, alarm management elements, safety interlock elements, and safety equipment elements, the risk probability frequency corresponding to each of the automatic control elements, alarm management elements, safety interlock elements, and safety equipment elements is calculated. When each of the primary risk elements includes safety management elements and operation management elements, the risk probability frequency of the tertiary elements under the secondary elements corresponding to the safety management elements and operation management elements is determined based on the regional process safety data. Based on the risk probability frequency and weight value of the tertiary elements, the risk probability frequency of the secondary elements corresponding to the safety management elements and operation management elements is calculated. Based on the risk probability frequency and weight value of the secondary elements corresponding to the safety management elements and operation management elements, the risk probability frequency of the safety management elements and operation management elements is calculated.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, After determining the regional dynamic risk probability level of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional process safety data, the safety risk element indicator system, and the preset risk probability rule table, the method further includes: In response to critical events in the region, the dynamic risk probability level of the region is processed according to a preset step-up rule to obtain the step-up probability level.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that, After assessing the inherent regional risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise and determining the regional basic consequence level of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the inherent regional risk level, the method further includes: Based on the range of personnel numbers in the regional process safety data, the basic consequence level of the region is upgraded to obtain the regional consequence level of the hazardous chemical enterprise.

5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that, The method of dynamically assessing risk levels and issuing early warnings based on the regional dynamic risk probability level, the regional basic consequence level, and a preset regional risk level assessment matrix, to obtain the regional risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise, includes: Based on the probability level after the jump and the regional consequence level, the regional risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise is determined by querying the preset regional risk level assessment matrix.

6. A regional dynamic process safety risk classification and early warning device for hazardous chemical enterprises, characterized in that, The steps for performing the method according to any one of claims 1 to 5 include: The acquisition unit is used to acquire regional process safety data and safety risk factor indicator systems of hazardous chemical enterprises. The first determining unit is used to determine the regional dynamic risk probability level of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional process safety data, the safety risk element indicator system, and the preset risk probability rule table. The second determining unit is used to assess the regional inherent risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise and determine the regional basic consequence level of the hazardous chemical enterprise based on the regional inherent risk level. The graded early warning unit is used to perform dynamic risk graded early warning based on the regional dynamic risk probability level, the regional basic consequence level, and the preset regional risk level assessment matrix, so as to obtain the regional risk level of the hazardous chemical enterprise.

7. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that, When the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 5.

8. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that, When the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 5.

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