Estimation method of vacancy rate of intelligent terminal delivery service facilities

Abstract

The present invention relates to the technical field of distribution service facilities, and specifically refers to a method for estimating the vacancy rate of intelligent terminal distribution service facilities, which specifically includes: establishing a storage volume estimation model for intelligent terminal distribution service facilities; establishing a vacancy rate estimation model for intelligent terminal distribution service facilities according to express delivery rules; updating the number of couriers of various sizes delivered by couriers in intelligent letter and parcel boxes and the number of couriers of various sizes taken out by users at each moment, and the number of couriers of various sizes delivered by couriers in postal service rooms and the number of couriers of various sizes taken out by users at each moment, solving the vacancy rate estimation model, and estimating the overall service capacity of the intelligent terminal distribution service facilities. When the peak vacancy rate is less than 10%, it means that the number of grids of various sizes in the currently set intelligent letter and parcel boxes and the stacking capacity of the postal service rooms match the actual demand, thereby reasonably configuring and constructing the intelligent terminal distribution service facilities.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of distribution service facilities, and in particular to a method for estimating the vacancy rate of intelligent terminal distribution service facilities. Background Art

[0002] In recent years, with the changes in people's lifestyles and consumption habits, the business volume of letters and newspapers has declined year by year, and the online purchasing power has continued to rise, resulting in a sharp growth in parcels and express delivery; at the same time, traditional letter and parcel boxes cannot accommodate parcels and express items due to their limited space, resulting in their extremely low utilization rate; based on this situation, express boxes and parcel cabinets have emerged in the market, which have alleviated the delivery pressure to a certain extent, but have also exposed some problems, such as the large number of delivery facilities, chaotic and disorderly placement, arbitrary delivery behavior, and many safety hazards; therefore, research on express delivery terminal delivery is urgent and important.

[0003] At present, the research on express terminal delivery in the existing technology mainly focuses on the site selection and layout of regional outlets. The terminal delivery service that is not accurate to independent individual communities will lead to the continued existence of the "last mile" problem of delivery, and the actual demand for delivery to users cannot be solved; therefore, intelligent terminal delivery service facilities have begun to emerge as a new generation of comprehensive intelligent delivery terminals in residential areas. Its main goal is to provide flexible, intelligent and multi-functional postal services to solve the mismatch between users and postmen in time and space; intelligent terminal delivery service facilities mainly include intelligent letter and parcel boxes and postal service rooms; among them, intelligent letter and parcel boxes are usually composed of one or several groups of cabinets, equipped with display screens and several grids of different sizes, so that they can adapt to parcels or letters of different sizes and types; postal service rooms refer to special places for sending and receiving express mail, parcels, etc. in residential communities, which make up for the spatial limitations of intelligent letter and parcel boxes and provide users with a more convenient area environment.

[0004] At present, more and more cities are gradually exploring the model of intelligent terminal service system. In the process of its implementation, how to reasonably plan and build is an important issue. For residential communities, the differences in population size, residents' consumption habits and behavioral characteristics will lead to different postal needs, and other factors such as population migration and commercial development may affect the changes in express delivery business volume. The service capacity of facilities needs to be in line with the actual situation of the community. If a unified standard is used to build intelligent terminal distribution service facilities, there will be too few or too many intelligent terminal distribution service facilities. If too few are built, it will cause the problem of not being able to meet peak demand. If too many are built, it is easy to have problems such as high vacancy rate, large land occupation and high operating costs. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the vacancy rate of intelligent terminal distribution service facilities so as to reasonably build intelligent terminal distribution service facilities.

[0005] When studying the vacancy rate of intelligent terminal delivery service facilities, the existing technology ignores the impact of user behavior factors on the usage of intelligent terminal delivery service facilities, such as user pickup frequency, package arrival frequency, etc., which may cause the vacancy rate of intelligent terminal delivery service facilities to be too low or too high, thereby leading to unreasonable configuration and operation of smart letter and parcel boxes and postal service rooms, and the service capacity of intelligent terminal delivery service facilities is inconsistent with actual needs. Summary of the invention

[0006] To this end, the technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to overcome the problem that the prior art does not take into account the impact of user behavior factors on the use of intelligent terminal delivery service facilities, resulting in the phenomenon that the vacancy rate of intelligent terminal delivery service facilities is too low or too high, thereby leading to unreasonable configuration and operation of smart letter and parcel boxes and postal service rooms, and the service capacity of intelligent terminal delivery service facilities does not meet actual needs.

[0007] In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides a method for estimating the vacancy rate of intelligent terminal delivery service facilities, comprising:

[0008] Based on any newly built community, set the total number of compartments of the smart letter and parcel box and the express delivery stacking capacity of the postal service room; set the number ratio of each size of the smart letter and parcel box, and determine the number of each size of the smart letter and parcel box according to the total number of compartments of the smart letter and parcel box;

[0009] Obtain the probability of couriers delivering packages and users picking up packages at various times on the day of the current new community, the total balance of packages in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility on the previous day, the balance of packages of various sizes in the intelligent letter and parcel boxes on the previous day, and the balance of packages of various sizes in the postal service room on the previous day;

[0010] According to the probability of the courier delivering the express at the current moment of the day, the probability of the user picking up the express at the current moment of the day, the total population of the newly built community, and the average number of express parcels taken out by each person per day, the total number of express parcels delivered by the courier and the total number of express parcels taken out by the user in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at the current moment of the day are calculated, and combined with the total surplus of express parcels in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility on the previous day, a storage volume model of the intelligent terminal delivery service facility is established; using the storage volume model, combined with the surplus of express parcels of various sizes in the intelligent letter and parcel box on the previous day, the surplus of express parcels of various sizes in the postal service room on the previous day, and the average probability of users purchasing express parcels of various sizes, the total storage volume of express parcels of various sizes in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at the current moment of the day is obtained;

[0011] Based on the express delivery conditions, according to the total storage amount of express parcels of various sizes in the intelligent terminal delivery service facilities at the current moment of the day and the number of compartments of various sizes in the intelligent letter and parcel boxes at the current moment of the day, the storage amount of express parcels of various sizes in the intelligent letter and parcel boxes at the current moment of the day and the storage amount of express parcels of various sizes in the postal service rooms at the current moment of the day are determined, and a vacancy rate estimation model for the intelligent terminal delivery service facilities is established; the vacancy rate estimation model includes the vacancy rate of compartments of various sizes in the intelligent letter and parcel boxes at the current moment of the day and the vacancy rate of the postal service rooms at the current moment of the day;

[0012] According to the total number of couriers dropping couriers and the total number of couriers taking out by users in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at the current moment of the day, and the average probability of users purchasing couriers of various sizes, combined with the storage value of couriers of various sizes in the intelligent letter and parcel box at the previous moment of the day and the storage value of couriers of various sizes in the postal service room at the previous moment of the day, the number of couriers dropping couriers of various sizes and the number of users taking out couriers of various sizes in the intelligent letter and parcel box at the current moment of the day, and the number of couriers dropping couriers of various sizes and the number of users taking out couriers of various sizes in the postal service room at the current moment of the day are updated, so as to solve the storage value of couriers of various sizes in the intelligent letter and parcel box at the current moment of the day, the storage value of couriers of various sizes in the postal service room at the current moment of the day in the vacancy rate estimation model, as well as the vacancy rate value of each size slot in the intelligent letter and parcel box at the current moment of the day and the vacancy rate value of the postal service room at the current moment of the day;

[0013] According to the time increment, the vacancy rate values ​​of each size compartment in the smart letter and parcel box at all times of the day and the vacancy rate values ​​of the postal service rooms at all times of the day are updated and calculated in sequence to complete the vacancy rate estimation of the smart terminal distribution service facilities.

[0014] Preferably, the number of couriers delivering couriers and the number of users picking up couriers at the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day are calculated based on the probability of the courier delivering couriers at time t on the same day, the probability of the user picking up couriers at time t on the same day, the total population of the current newly built community, and the average number of couriers picked up per person per day. The expression is:

[0015]

[0016]

[0017] in, It represents the total number of couriers delivering packages in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the day; represents the total number of express parcels picked up by users in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day; x represents the total population of the current newly built community; θ represents the average number of express parcels picked up by each person per day; S(t) represents the probability that the courier delivers the parcel at time t on the same day; R(t) represents the probability that the user picks up the parcel at time t on the same day; t represents the current time, which is the hourly moment; T represents the time set, and the value of T is every hourly moment from 7:00 to 21:00.

[0018] Preferably, a storage capacity model of intelligent terminal distribution service facilities is established, and its expression is:

[0019]

[0020] Among them, D(t) represents the total storage volume of all express deliveries in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t of the day; U represents the total surplus of express deliveries in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility on the previous day; x represents the total population of the current newly built community; θ represents the average number of express deliveries per person per day; S(t) represents the probability that the courier delivers the express at time t of the day; R(t) represents the probability that the user picks up the express at time t of the day; t represents the current time, which is the hourly time; T represents the time set, and the value of T is every hourly time from 7:00 to 21:00.

[0021] Preferably, the storage volume model is used to combine the balance of k-size express in the smart letter and parcel box on the previous day, the balance of k-size express in the postal service room on the previous day, and the average probability of users purchasing k-size express, to obtain the total storage volume of k-size express in the smart terminal delivery service facility at time t on the day, and the expression is:

[0022]

[0023] Among them, D k (t) represents the total storage volume of k-size express parcels in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the day; It indicates the balance of k-size express in the smart letter box on the previous day; represents the remaining amount of k-size express in the postal service room on the previous day; x represents the total population of the new community; θ represents the average number of express parcels taken by each person per day; S(t) represents the probability that the courier delivers the express at time t on the same day; R(t) represents the probability that the user picks up the express at time t on the same day; β k represents the average probability of a user purchasing a k-size express delivery, ∑ k∈K β k =1; k represents the size type; K represents the smart parcel box slot size type set, K = {L, M, S, SS}; t represents the current time, which is the hourly time; T represents the time set, and the value of T is every hourly time from 7:00 to 21:00.

[0024] Preferably, the method of determining the storage volume of express parcels of various sizes in the smart letter and parcel box at the current moment of the day and the storage volume of express parcels of various sizes in the postal service room at the current moment of the day based on the express delivery conditions according to the total storage volume of express parcels of various sizes in the smart terminal distribution service facility at the current moment of the day and the number of slots of various sizes in the smart letter and parcel box at the current moment of the day comprises:

[0025] The conditions for express delivery are as follows: K-size express parcels are first stored in the K-size compartment of the smart letter and parcel box. When the K-size compartment of the smart letter and parcel box is full, the remaining K-size express parcels are stored in the postal service room;

[0026] According to the express delivery conditions, the storage volume of k-size express in the smart parcel box at time t on the same day is the minimum value between the total storage volume of k-size express in the smart terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day and the number of k-size slots in the smart parcel box. The expression is:

[0027]

[0028] Based on the fact that the total amount of k-size express delivery stored in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day is the sum of the amount of k-size express delivery stored in the intelligent letter and parcel box at time t on the same day and the amount of k-size express delivery stored in the postal service room at time t on the same day, the amount of k-size express delivery stored in the postal service room at time t on the same day is The expression is:

[0029]

[0030] Among them, D k (t) represents the total storage volume of k-size express parcels in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the day; N*α k represents the number of k-size in the smart mailbox; N represents the total number of cells in the smart mailbox; α k Indicates the ratio of the number of k-size grids set, ∑ k∈K α k =1; k represents the size type; K represents the smart parcel box slot size type set, K = {L, M, S, SS}; t represents the current time, which is the hourly time; T represents the time set, and the value of T is every hourly time from 7:00 to 21:00.

[0031] Preferably, a vacancy rate estimation model for intelligent terminal delivery service facilities is established, and its expression is:

[0032]

[0033]

[0034] in, represents the vacancy rate of the k-size slot in the smart parcel box at time t on the day; E H (t) represents the vacancy rate of postal service rooms at time t on the day; represents the storage volume of k-size express parcels in the smart parcel box at time t on the same day; N*α represents the storage volume of k-size express parcels in the postal service room at time t on the same day; k represents the number of k-size grids in the smart mail box; N represents the total number of grids in the smart mail box; α k Indicates the ratio of the number of k-size grids set, ∑ k∈K α k =1; C represents the stacking capacity of the postal service room; k represents the size type; K represents the smart letter and parcel box compartment size type set, K = {L, M, S, SS}; t represents the current time, which is the hourly time; T represents the time set, and the value of T is every hourly time from 7:00 to 21:00.

[0035] Preferably, based on the express delivery conditions, according to the number of slots of each size in the smart letter and parcel box, the storage value of each size of express in the smart letter and parcel box at the previous moment of the day, the total number of express delivered by couriers in the smart terminal delivery service facility at the current moment of the day, and the average probability of users purchasing express of each size, determining the number of express deliveries of each size delivered by couriers in the smart letter and parcel box at the current moment of the day and the number of express deliveries of each size delivered by couriers in the postal service room at the current moment of the day includes:

[0036] The conditions for express delivery are as follows: K-size express parcels are first stored in the K-size compartment of the smart letter and parcel box. When the K-size compartment of the smart letter and parcel box is full, the remaining K-size express parcels are stored in the postal service room;

[0037] According to the express delivery conditions, the number of k-size express parcels delivered by couriers in the smart parcel box at time t on the same day is the minimum value between the number of unused k-size slots in the smart parcel box at time (t-Δt) on the same day and the total number of k-size express parcels delivered by couriers in the smart terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day. The expression is:

[0038]

[0039] in, Indicates the number of unused k-size slots in the smart mailbox at the time (t-Δt) of the day; N*α k represents the number of k-size grids in the smart mail box; N represents the total number of grids in the smart mail box; α k Indicates the ratio of the number of k-size grids set, ∑ k∈K αk =1; It represents the storage value of k-size express in the smart parcel box at the time (t-Δt) on the same day; represents the total number of k-size express parcels delivered by couriers in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the day;

[0040] Based on the fact that the total number of k-size couriers placed in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day is the sum of the number of k-size couriers placed in the intelligent letter and parcel boxes at time t on the same day and the number of k-size couriers placed in the postal service room at time t on the same day, the number of k-size couriers placed in the postal service room at time t on the same day is The expression is:

[0041]

[0042] in, represents the total number of couriers delivering packages in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the day; β k represents the average probability of a user purchasing a k-size express delivery, ∑ k∈K β k =1; k represents the size type, k∈K; K represents the smart parcel box slot size type set, K={L, M, S, SS}; t represents the current time, which is an hourly moment, t∈T; Δt represents the time increment; (t-Δt) represents the previous time, which is an hourly moment, (t-Δt)∈T; T represents the time set, and the value of T is every hourly moment from 7:00 to 21:00.

[0043] Preferably, the number of k-size express deliveries taken out by users from the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day, the storage value of k-size express deliveries in the intelligent letter and parcel box at time (t-Δt) on the same day, the storage value of k-size express deliveries in the postal service room at time (t-Δt) on the same day, the number of k-size express deliveries put by couriers in the intelligent letter and parcel box at time t on the same day, and the number of k-size express deliveries put by couriers in the postal service room at time t on the same day, the number of k-size express deliveries taken out by users from the intelligent letter and parcel box at time t on the same day, and the number of k-size express deliveries taken out by users from the postal service room at time t on the same day are determined, and the expression is:

[0044]

[0045]

[0046] in, It represents the number of k-size parcels taken out by users from the smart parcel box at time t on the same day; represents the number of k-size parcels taken out by users in the postal service room at time t on the same day; It represents the total number of express deliveries picked up by users in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day; It represents the storage value of k-size express in the smart parcel box at the time (t-Δt) on the same day; It represents the storage value of k-size express in the postal service room at the time (t-Δt) on the same day; It represents the number of k-size parcels placed by the courier in the smart parcel box at time t on the day; It represents the number of k-size express parcels delivered by couriers in the postal service room at time t of the day; k represents the size type, k∈K; K represents the set of size types of smart letter and parcel box compartments, K={L,M,S,SS}; t represents the current time, which is an hourly moment, t∈T; Δt represents the time increment; (t-Δt) represents the previous time, which is an hourly moment, (t-Δt)∈v; T represents the time set, and the value of T is every hourly moment from 7:00 to 21:00.

[0047] Preferably, according to the storage value of k-size express in the smart letter box at time (t-Δt) of the day, the storage value of k-size express in the postal service room at time (t-Δt) of the day, combined with the number of k-size express delivered by couriers and the number of k-size express taken out by users in the smart letter box at time t of the day, as well as the number of k-size express delivered by couriers and the number of k-size express taken out by users in the postal service room at time t of the day, the storage value of k-size express in the smart letter box at time t of the day and the storage value of k-size express in the postal service room at time t of the day in the vacancy rate estimation model are solved, and the expression is:

[0048]

[0049]

[0050] in, It represents the storage value of k-size express in the smart parcel box at time t on the same day; It represents the storage value of k-size express in the postal service room at time t of the day; It represents the storage value of k-size express in the smart parcel box at the time (t-Δt) on the same day; It represents the storage value of k-size express in the postal service room at the time (t-Δt) on the same day; It represents the number of k-size parcels placed by the courier in the smart parcel box at time t on the day; represents the number of k-size parcels delivered by couriers in the postal service room at time t on the day; It represents the number of k-size parcels taken out by users from the smart parcel box at time t on the same day; It represents the number of k-size express parcels taken out by users in the postal service room at time t on the same day; k represents the size type, k∈K; K represents the set of size types of the smart letter box compartment, K={L, M, S, SS}; t represents the current time, which is the hourly moment, t∈T; Δt represents the time increment; (t-Δt) represents the previous time, which is the hourly moment, (t-Δt)∈T; T represents the time set, and the value of T is every hourly moment from 7:00 to 21:00.

[0051] Preferably, the setting of the quantity ratio of each size of the smart letter box includes:

[0052] The smart letter and parcel box includes: a large compartment, a medium compartment, a small compartment, and an extra-small compartment; wherein the large compartment is an L-size compartment for storing L-size express; the medium compartment is an M-size compartment for storing M-size express; the small compartment is an S-size compartment for storing S-size express; and the extra-small compartment is an SS-size compartment for storing SS-size express;

[0053] According to the requirements for setting the ratio of the number of grid openings in the smart mailbox, the ratio of the number of grid openings of each size is set; among which, the number of large grid openings accounts for at least 5% of the total number of grid openings in the smart mailbox, the number of medium grid openings accounts for at least 20% of the total number of grid openings in the smart mailbox, the number of small grid openings accounts for at least 25% of the total number of grid openings in the smart mailbox, and the remaining grid openings in the smart mailbox are set as extra-small grid openings.

[0054] The above technical solution of the present invention has the following beneficial effects compared with the prior art:

[0055] A method for estimating the vacancy rate of an intelligent terminal delivery service facility described in the present invention considers the probability of couriers delivering couriers and the probability of users taking out couriers at each moment, and establishes a storage capacity estimation model for the intelligent terminal delivery service facility; according to the service rules of the intelligent terminal delivery service facility, the courier gives priority to putting the couriers into the intelligent letter and parcel boxes after receiving the couriers, and when the storage space in the intelligent letter and parcel boxes is insufficient, the couriers are placed in the postal service room, and an estimation model for the vacancy rate of the intelligent terminal delivery service facility is established; because the process of solving the storage capacity values ​​of the couriers corresponding to the various sizes of the grids of the intelligent letter and parcel boxes is relatively complicated according to the storage capacity conditions of the intelligent letter and parcel boxes, therefore, considering real-time updates of the number of couriers delivering couriers of various sizes and the number of users taking out couriers of various sizes in the intelligent letter and parcel boxes at each moment, and the number of couriers delivering couriers of various sizes and the number of users taking out couriers of various sizes in the postal service room at each moment, and combining the probability of couriers delivering couriers and the number of users taking out couriers of various sizes at each moment The probability of taking out express delivery is solved, and the storage volume of express delivery of each size in the smart letter and parcel box at each moment and the storage volume of express delivery of each size in the postal service room at each moment are solved, and then the vacancy rate value of the smart terminal distribution service facility at each moment is obtained; according to the vacancy rate estimation results of the smart terminal distribution service facility at each moment, the overall service capacity of the smart terminal distribution service facility can be estimated. When the peak vacancy rate is less than 10%, it means that the number of grids of each size of the currently set smart letter and parcel box and the stacking capacity of the postal service room match the actual demand, so as to reasonably configure and construct the smart terminal distribution service facility; the present invention strengthens the matching between the configuration of smart letter and parcel boxes and postal service rooms and the actual postal demand by considering the impact of user behavior on the vacancy rate estimation of the smart terminal distribution service facility; controls the construction and operation costs, and reduces unnecessary energy consumption and environmental pollution, while promoting the development of green logistics and keeping pace with urban development. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0056] In order to make the content of the present invention more clearly understood, the present invention is further described in detail below according to specific embodiments of the present invention in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, wherein:

[0057] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a method for estimating the vacancy rate of an intelligent terminal delivery service facility provided by the present invention;

[0058] Figure 2 is the probability distribution graph of the courier delivering the package;

[0059] Figure 3 It is the probability distribution diagram of users picking up express delivery;

[0060] Figure 4 It is a dynamic change chart of the number of couriers delivering packages and users picking up packages accumulated by the intelligent terminal delivery service facility;

[0061] Figure 5 It is a dynamic change diagram of the storage volume of intelligent terminal distribution service facilities;

[0062] Figure 6 It is a line chart of the usage of each compartment of the smart letter and parcel box; among them, Figure 6 (a) in the figure shows the use of ultra-small grid; Figure 6 (b) in the figure shows the use of small grids; Figure 6 (c) in the figure shows the usage of the middle grid port; Figure 6 (d) in the figure shows the usage of large grid;

[0063] Figure 7 It is a line graph of the usage of postal service rooms;

[0064] Figure 8 It is a line graph of the vacancy rate of each compartment of the smart parcel box; Figure 8 (a) in the figure indicates the vacancy rate of ultra-small grids; Figure 8 (b) in the figure indicates the vacancy rate of small grids; Figure 8 (c) in the figure indicates the vacancy rate of the middle grid; Figure 8 (d) indicates the vacancy rate of the large grid

[0065] Fig. 9 It is a line graph of the vacancy rate of postal service premises. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0066] The present invention is further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments so that those skilled in the art can better understand the present invention and implement it, but the embodiments are not intended to limit the present invention.

[0067] Reference Figure 1 As shown, Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a method for estimating the vacancy rate of an intelligent terminal delivery service facility provided by the present invention; specifically comprising:

[0068] S1: Based on any newly built community, set the total number of grids N of the smart parcel box and the express delivery stacking capacity C of the postal service room; set the number ratio of grids of each size of the smart parcel box, and determine the number of grids of each size of the smart parcel box according to the total number of grids of the smart parcel box; where the number ratio of grids of size k is set to α k ,∑ k∈K α k =1; k represents the size type, k∈K; K represents the size type set of the smart parcel box;

[0069] In a specific embodiment of the present invention, the smart letter and parcel box includes: a large compartment, a medium compartment, a small compartment, and an extra-small compartment; wherein the large compartment is an L-size compartment for storing L-size express; the medium compartment is an M-size compartment for storing M-size express; the small compartment is an S-size compartment for storing S-size express; the extra-small compartment is an SS-size compartment for storing SS-size express; K = {L, M, S, SS};

[0070] According to the requirements for setting the ratio of the number of grid openings in the smart letter bag box, set the ratio of the number of grid openings of each size; among which, the number of large grid openings shall account for at least 5% of the total number of grid openings in the smart letter bag box, the number of medium grid openings shall account for at least 20% of the total number of grid openings in the smart letter bag box, the number of small grid openings shall account for at least 25% of the total number of grid openings in the smart letter bag box, and the remaining grid openings in the smart letter bag box shall be set as super small grid openings;

[0071] S2: Obtain the probability of couriers delivering packages and users picking up packages at each time of the day in the current new community, the total balance U of the packages in the smart terminal delivery service facility on the previous day, and the balance of k-size packages in the smart letter and parcel box on the previous day The balance of K-size express in the postal service room on the previous day

[0072] S3: Based on the probability S(t) that the courier delivers the package at time t on the same day, the probability R(t) that the user picks up the package at time t on the same day, the total population x of the new community, and the average number of packages taken by each person per day θ, the total number of packages delivered by the courier and the total number of packages taken out by the user in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day are calculated. The expression is:

[0073]

[0074]

[0075] in, It represents the total number of couriers delivering packages in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the day; represents the total number of express parcels picked up by users in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day; T represents the time set; t represents the current time, which is the hourly time; T represents the time set, and the value of T is every hourly time from 7:00 to 21:00; Among them, the average number of express parcels picked up per person per day θ is closely related to the socioeconomic indicators of the location of the newly built community, and is also closely related to the consumption level of the people living in the newly built community. Therefore, when laying out and configuring the intelligent terminal delivery system, it is necessary to investigate the postal behavior of the target residential community and determine the average number of express parcels picked up per person per day in the future medium and long term θ, so as to further improve the estimation accuracy;

[0076] According to the total number of couriers delivering express packages in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day And the total number of express deliveries picked up by users Combined with the total express surplus U of the intelligent terminal delivery service facility on the previous day, the storage model of the intelligent terminal delivery service facility is established, and its expression is:

[0077]

[0078] Where D(t) represents the total storage volume of all express deliveries in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the day;

[0079] Using the storage model, combined with the balance of k-size express in the smart mail box on the previous day The balance of K-size express in the postal service room on the previous day The average probability of a user purchasing a k-size express delivery is used to obtain the total amount of k-size express delivery stored in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day. The expression is:

[0080]

[0081] Among them, D k (t) represents the total storage volume of k-size express parcels in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the day; β k represents the average probability of a user purchasing a k-size express delivery, ∑ k∈K β k =1;

[0082] S4: The express delivery conditions are: K-size express parcels are first stored in the K-size compartment of the smart letter and parcel box. When the K-size compartment of the smart letter and parcel box is full, the remaining K-size express parcels are stored in the postal service room;

[0083] According to the express delivery conditions, the storage volume of k-size express in the smart letter and parcel box at time t on the same day is is the total storage volume Dk(t) of k-size express in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the day and the number of k-size slots in the intelligent letter and parcel box N*α k The minimum value between , then the storage volume of k-size express in the smart letter box at time t on the same day The expression is:

[0084]

[0085] Based on the total storage volume D of k-size express parcels in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day k (t) is the storage volume of k-size express parcels in the smart parcel box at time t on the day The storage volume of k-size express parcels in the postal service room at time t on the same day The sum of the k-size express parcels stored in the postal service room at time t on the same day is The expression is:

[0086]

[0087] According to the storage volume of k-size express in the smart parcel box at time t on the same day The number of k-size express parcels stored in the postal service room at time t on the day A vacancy rate estimation model for intelligent terminal distribution service facilities is established, and its expression is:

[0088]

[0089]

[0090] in, represents the vacancy rate of the k-size slot in the smart parcel box at time t on the day; E H (t) represents the vacancy rate of postal service rooms at time t on the day;

[0091] S5: Due to Formula, solve The process of solving the vacancy rate estimation model of the intelligent terminal delivery service facility is relatively complicated. Therefore, in order to solve the vacancy rate estimation model of the intelligent terminal delivery service facility, it is considered to update the state quantity of each express in the intelligent letter and parcel box at each moment and the state quantity of each express in the postal service room at each moment in real time;

[0092] Among them, the state quantities of each express in the smart parcel box at each moment include: the number of express of each size put by the courier in the smart parcel box at each moment, the number of express of each size taken out by the user, and the storage value of each size in the smart parcel box at each moment; the state quantities of each express in the postal service room at each moment include: the number of express of each size put by the courier in the postal service room at each moment, the number of express of each size taken out by the user, and the storage value of each size in the smart parcel box at each moment;

[0093] According to the express delivery conditions, the number of k-size express parcels delivered by the courier in the smart letter and parcel box at time t on the same day is is the minimum value between the number of unused k-size slots in the smart parcel box at time (t-Δt) on the same day and the total number of k-size parcels delivered by couriers in the smart terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day. The expression is:

[0094]

[0095] in, Indicates the number of unused k-size slots in the smart parcel box at the time (t-Δt) of the day; It represents the storage value of k-size express in the smart parcel box at the time (t-Δt) on the same day; represents the total number of k-size express parcels delivered by couriers in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the day; t represents the current time, which is the hourly time, t∈T; Δt represents the time increment; (t-Δt) represents the previous time, which is the hourly time, (t-Δt)∈T; T represents the time set, and the value of T is every hourly time from 7:00 to 21:00;

[0096] The total number of k-size couriers placed in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day is the number of k-size couriers placed in the intelligent letter and parcel box at time t on the same day. The number of k-size parcels delivered by couriers in the postal service room at time t on the same day The sum of the k-size parcels delivered by the courier in the postal service room at time t on the same day is The expression is:

[0097]

[0098] According to the total number of express deliveries taken out by users in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day The storage value of k-size express in the smart parcel box at time (t-Δt) on the same day The storage value of k-size express in the postal service room at time (t-Δt) on the same day And the number of k-size parcels placed by the courier in the smart parcel box at time t on the same day The number of k-size parcels delivered by couriers in the postal service room at time t on the same day Update the number of k-size express parcels taken out by users from the smart parcel box at time t on the same day, and the number of k-size express parcels taken out by users from the postal service room at time t on the same day. The expression is:

[0099]

[0100]

[0101] in, It represents the number of k-size parcels taken out by users from the smart parcel box at time t on the same day; represents the number of k-size parcels taken out by users in the postal service room at time t on the same day;

[0102] S6: Based on the storage value of k-size express in the smart parcel box at the time (t-Δt) of the day The storage value of k-size express in the postal service room at time (t-Δt) on the same day Combined with the number of k-size parcels placed by the courier in the smart parcel box at time t on the same day And the number of k-size express deliveries taken out by the user and the number of k-size parcels delivered by couriers in the postal service room at time t on the same day And the number of k-size express deliveries taken out by the user Solve the storage value of k-size express in the smart parcel box at time t on the same day in the vacancy rate estimation model The storage value of k-size express parcels in the postal service room at time t on the same day Its expression is:

[0103]

[0104]

[0105] According to the storage value of k-size express in the smart parcel box at time t on the same day The storage value of k-size express parcels in the postal service room at time t on the same day Obtain the vacancy rate value of the k-size slots in the smart letter and parcel box at time t on the same day and the vacancy rate value of the postal service room at time t on the same day;

[0106] S7: According to the time increment Δt, update and calculate in sequence the vacancy rate values ​​of each size slot in the smart letter and parcel box at all times of the day and the vacancy rate values ​​of the postal service room at all times of the day, and complete the vacancy rate estimation of the smart terminal distribution service facility.

[0107] In a specific embodiment of the present invention, a newly built community in J city is taken as an example. The newly built community has 5 buildings with 15 floors (4 households per floor), and it is expected to be fully occupied by about 75*4=300 households. The current total population x of the newly built community is about 1200. According to the statistical bulletin on the development of the postal industry, the annual per capita mail volume in J city is 5.72 pieces, the number of newspapers and periodicals subscribed per 100 people is 9.51, and the annual per capita express delivery usage is 188.6 pieces. It is further estimated that the average number of express deliveries per person per day is θ=188.6 / 365≈0.5, and the number of express deliveries taken out by users every day is 600 pieces. The delivery behavior of couriers and users in a newly built community in J city is investigated and analyzed by distributing questionnaires, and the probability distribution function of the courier delivering express within one day and the probability distribution function of the user taking express within one day are obtained, such as Figure 2 As shown;

[0108] According to the construction standard of intelligent letter and parcel boxes in residential areas, the total number of grids of intelligent letter and parcel boxes is set, and the grid openings are set to four types: large grid openings, medium grid openings, small grid openings, and ultra-small grid openings; the number of large grid openings is set to ≥ 5% of the total number of grid openings, the number of medium grid openings is set to ≥ 20% of the total number of grid openings, the number of small grid openings is set to ≥ 25% of the total number of grid openings, and the rest are ultra-small grid openings; in this embodiment, a standard intelligent letter and parcel box group is used, including 1 main cabinet, 4 sub-1 cabinets, 3 sub-2 cabinets, and a total of about 191 grid openings; the specific grid opening settings are shown in Table 1; the stacking capacity of the shelves in the postal service room is set to 300 standard-size express (approximately M-size parcels), and the conversion coefficients of L, S, SS-size express and standard-size express are 1.5, 0.25, and 0.1, respectively;

[0109] Table 1 Standard intelligent letter and parcel box group opening settings

[0110]

[0111] Combined with the questionnaire and on-site express point survey analysis, the average probability β of users purchasing k-size express delivery is set k , then the average probability of a user purchasing an L-size express delivery is β L = 0.1, the average probability of a user purchasing an M-size package β M =0.25, the average probability of users purchasing S-size express delivery β S =0.35, the average probability of users purchasing SS-size express delivery β SS =0.3; the proportion of goods balance on the previous day was 5%, that is, the total amount of goods that had not been taken away on the previous day was 5% of the total amount of goods; among them, the balance of postal service rooms accounted for 30% of the total balance, and the balance of smart letter boxes accounted for 70% of the total balance, among which the proportions of L, M, S and SS size express were 8%, 23%, 34.5% and 34.5% respectively.

[0112] Reference Figure 4 As shown in the figure, the cumulative number of parcels received at 7:00 is the balance of the previous day. The cumulative number of parcels received during the day is relatively stable, maintaining a continuous upward trend, and slowing down to 0 after 18:00; the cumulative number of users picking up parcels increases rapidly at 16:00; refer to Figure 5 As shown, the express delivery storage volume of the intelligent terminal delivery service facility increases continuously from 7:00 to 16:00, gradually reaches a peak, and gradually decreases from 16:00 to 21:00.

[0113] renew The express delivery status is calculated, and the usage status of the smart letter and parcel box slots and the postal service room at time T is further updated to obtain the usage status of the smart letter and parcel box slots of different sizes and the usage status of the postal service room, such as Figure 6 , Figure 7 shown by Figure 6It can be seen that, in general, the various sizes of slots in the smart parcel box gradually become saturated with the increase in demand, and the time when all size slots become saturated is about 16:00; Figure 7 It can be seen that the peak period of express delivery items in the postal service room is at 16:00; at the same time, the usage pattern of smart letter and parcel boxes and postal service rooms can increase the terminal delivery capacity, and the postal service room can be used to place items after the smart letter and parcel boxes are saturated.

[0114] according to The update results of these two express status quantities can obtain the vacancy rate of each size of the intelligent letter and parcel box and the vacancy rate of the postal service room, such as Figure 8 , Fig. 9 shown; reference Figure 8 As shown in the figure, the vacancy rates of the various sizes of the smart mailboxes in the T time period are similar, with high vacancy rates in the first and last two periods. However, the larger the size of the compartment, the longer the low vacancy rate period is maintained, and the vacancy rate is 0 at about 16:00, which also shows that the supply and demand of the mailboxes in this community are well matched. Fig. 9 As shown, the postal service room reaches the minimum vacancy rate at 16:00, but its minimum vacancy rate is almost close to 50%. It can be seen that the overall vacancy rate of the postal service room in this community is relatively high, the stacking capacity is not fully utilized, and there is some waste of postal service room resources.

[0115] The present invention evaluates service efficiency based on the usage and vacancy rate of the intelligent terminal delivery service system, and adjusts service strategies and resource allocation based on their changes. The service level of intelligent terminal delivery facilities is closely related to the system parameters of the facilities themselves, as well as to postal behavior, social economy, etc. Therefore, when using the proposed estimation model, key parameters need to be calibrated. In practical applications, the parameters of similar communities or urban areas with similar economic levels can also be framed and estimated.

[0116] In order to adapt to the analysis of the required construction volume after large-scale intelligent terminal service facilities enter urban residential areas, the present invention establishes a model to estimate the storage volume estimation model and the vacancy rate estimation model of intelligent terminal distribution service facilities, theoretically analyzes the matching between the construction of intelligent letter and parcel boxes and postal service rooms and the actual postal demand, and evaluates the service capacity of the intelligent terminal service facilities by solving the vacancy rate estimation model, providing strong data support for the operation and management of the postal service industry, providing on-site support for the construction of intelligent terminal distribution service facilities, and providing a reference basis for the reasonable planning of the number and layout of intelligent letter and parcel boxes and postal service rooms, thereby achieving the purpose of allocating intelligent terminal distribution service facilities according to actual needs; in addition, during the operation of the intelligent terminal distribution facilities, the business hours and staffing of the service facilities can be flexibly adjusted according to the estimation results; in the future, it can also be expanded to other terminal distribution fields, such as take-out, cold chain supply, etc.

[0117] Obviously, the above embodiments are merely examples for the purpose of clear explanation and are not intended to limit the implementation methods. For those skilled in the art, other different forms of changes or modifications can be made based on the above description. It is not necessary and impossible to list all the implementation methods here. The obvious changes or modifications derived therefrom are still within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for estimating the vacancy rate of intelligent terminal delivery service facilities, characterized in that: include: Based on any newly built community, set the total number of smart letter and parcel boxes and the express delivery stacking capacity of the postal service room; Set the ratio of the number of grids of each size in the smart letter box, and determine the number of grids of each size in the smart letter box according to the total number of grids in the smart letter box; Obtain the probability of couriers delivering packages and users picking up packages at various times on the day of the current new community, the total balance of packages in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility on the previous day, the balance of packages of various sizes in the intelligent letter and parcel boxes on the previous day, and the balance of packages of various sizes in the postal service room on the previous day; According to the probability of couriers delivering packages at the current time of the day, the probability of users picking up packages at the current time of the day, the total population of the newly built community, and the average number of packages picked up per person per day, the total number of packages delivered by couriers and the total number of packages picked up by users in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at the current time of the day are calculated, and combined with the total surplus of packages in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility on the previous day, the storage capacity model of the intelligent terminal delivery service facility is established, and its expression is: Among them, D(t) represents the total storage volume of all express parcels in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t of the day; U represents the total surplus of express parcels in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility on the previous day; x represents the total population of the current newly built community; θ represents the average number of express parcels taken by each person per day; S(t) represents the probability that the courier delivers the parcel at time t of the day; R(t) represents the probability that the user takes out the parcel at time t of the day; t represents the current time, which is the hourly time; T represents the time set, and the value of T is each hourly time from 7:00 to 21:00; By using the storage volume model, combined with the balance of express parcels of various sizes in the smart letter and parcel box on the previous day, the balance of express parcels of various sizes in the postal service room on the previous day, and the average probability of users purchasing express parcels of various sizes, the total storage volume of express parcels of various sizes in the smart terminal delivery service facility at the current moment of the day is obtained. Then, the expression for the total storage volume of express parcels of size k in the smart terminal delivery service facility at time t on the day is: Among them, D k (t) represents the total storage volume of k-size express parcels in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the day; It indicates the balance of k-size express in the smart letter box on the previous day; represents the balance of k-size express in the postal service room on the previous day; β k represents the average probability of a user purchasing a k-size express delivery, ∑ k∈K β k =1; k represents the size type; K represents the size type set of the smart parcel box, K = {L, M, S, SS}; Based on the express delivery conditions, according to the total storage volume of express parcels of various sizes in the intelligent terminal delivery service facilities at the current moment of the day and the number of slots of various sizes in the intelligent letter and parcel boxes, the storage volume of express parcels of various sizes in the intelligent letter and parcel boxes at the current moment of the day and the storage volume of express parcels of various sizes in the postal service rooms at the current moment of the day are determined, and the vacancy rate estimation model of the intelligent terminal delivery service facilities is established, and its expression is: in, represents the vacancy rate of the k-size slot in the smart parcel box at time t on the day; E H (t) represents the vacancy rate of postal service rooms at time t on the day; represents the storage volume of k-size express parcels in the smart parcel box at time t on the same day; N*α represents the storage volume of k-size express parcels in the postal service room at time t on the same day; k represents the number of k-size grids in the smart mail box; N represents the total number of grids in the smart mail box; α k Indicates the ratio of the number of k-size grids set, ∑ k∈K α k =1; C represents the stacking capacity of the postal service room; The vacancy rate estimation model includes the vacancy rate of each size of the intelligent letter and parcel box at the current time of the day and the vacancy rate of the postal service room at the current time of the day; According to the total number of couriers dropping couriers and the total number of couriers taking out by users in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at the current moment of the day, and the average probability of users purchasing couriers of various sizes, combined with the storage value of couriers of various sizes in the intelligent letter and parcel box at the previous moment of the day and the storage value of couriers of various sizes in the postal service room at the previous moment of the day, the number of couriers dropping couriers of various sizes and the number of users taking out couriers of various sizes in the intelligent letter and parcel box at the current moment of the day, and the number of couriers dropping couriers of various sizes and the number of users taking out couriers of various sizes in the postal service room at the current moment of the day are updated, so as to solve the storage value of couriers of various sizes in the intelligent letter and parcel box at the current moment of the day, the storage value of couriers of various sizes in the postal service room at the current moment of the day in the vacancy rate estimation model, as well as the vacancy rate value of each size slot in the intelligent letter and parcel box at the current moment of the day and the vacancy rate value of the postal service room at the current moment of the day; According to the time increment, the vacancy rate values ​​of each size compartment in the smart letter and parcel box at all times of the day and the vacancy rate values ​​of the postal service rooms at all times of the day are updated and calculated in sequence to complete the vacancy rate estimation of the smart terminal distribution service facilities.

2. A method for estimating vacancy rate of intelligent terminal delivery service facilities according to claim 1, characterized in that: According to the probability of the courier delivering the package at time t on the same day, the probability of the user picking up the package at time t on the same day, the total population of the current new community, and the average number of packages picked up by each person per day, the number of packages delivered by the courier and the number of packages picked up by the user in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day are calculated. The expression is: in, It represents the total number of couriers delivering packages in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the day; represents the total number of express parcels picked up by users in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day; x represents the total population of the current newly built community; θ represents the average number of express parcels picked up by each person per day; S(t) represents the probability that the courier delivers the parcel at time t on the same day; R(t) represents the probability that the user picks up the parcel at time t on the same day; t represents the current time, which is the hourly moment; T represents the time set, and the value of T is every hourly moment from 7:00 to 21:

00.

3. The method for estimating the vacancy rate of intelligent terminal delivery service facilities according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Based on the express delivery conditions, according to the total storage amount of express deliveries of various sizes in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at the current moment of the day and the number of slots of various sizes in the intelligent letter and parcel box, the storage amount of express deliveries of various sizes in the intelligent letter and parcel box at the current moment of the day and the storage amount of express deliveries of various sizes in the postal service room at the current moment of the day are determined, including: The conditions for express delivery are as follows: K-size express parcels are first stored in the K-size compartment of the smart letter and parcel box. When the K-size compartment of the smart letter and parcel box is full, the remaining K-size express parcels are stored in the postal service room; According to the express delivery conditions, the storage volume of k-size express in the smart parcel box at time t on the same day is the minimum value between the total storage volume of k-size express in the smart terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day and the number of k-size slots in the smart parcel box. The expression is: Based on the fact that the total amount of k-size express delivery stored in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day is the sum of the amount of k-size express delivery stored in the intelligent letter and parcel box at time t on the same day and the amount of k-size express delivery stored in the postal service room at time t on the same day, the amount of k-size express delivery stored in the postal service room at time t on the same day is The expression is: Among them, D k (t) represents the total storage volume of k-size express parcels in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the day; N*α k represents the number of k-size in the smart mailbox; N represents the total number of cells in the smart mailbox; α k Indicates the ratio of the number of k-size grids set, ∑ k∈K α k =1; k represents the size type; K represents the smart parcel box slot size type set, K = {L, M, S, SS}; t represents the current time, which is the hourly time; T represents the time set, and the value of T is every hourly time from 7:00 to 21:

00.

4. The method for estimating the vacancy rate of intelligent terminal delivery service facilities according to claim 1, characterized in that: Based on the express delivery conditions, according to the number of slots of each size in the smart letter and parcel box, the storage value of each size of express in the smart letter and parcel box at the previous moment of the day, the total number of express delivered by couriers in the smart terminal delivery service facility at the current moment of the day, and the average probability of users purchasing express of each size, the number of express delivered by couriers of each size in the smart letter and parcel box at the current moment of the day and the number of express delivered by couriers of each size in the postal service room at the current moment of the day are determined, including: The conditions for express delivery are as follows: K-size express parcels are first stored in the K-size compartment of the smart letter and parcel box. When the K-size compartment of the smart letter and parcel box is full, the remaining K-size express parcels are stored in the postal service room; According to the express delivery conditions, the number of k-size express parcels delivered by couriers in the smart parcel box at time t on the same day is the minimum value between the number of unused k-size slots in the smart parcel box at time (t-Δt) on the same day and the total number of k-size express parcels delivered by couriers in the smart terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day. The expression is: in, Indicates the number of unused k-size slots in the smart mailbox at the time (t-Δt) of the day; N*α k represents the number of k-size grids in the smart mail box; N represents the total number of grids in the smart mail box; α k Indicates the ratio of the number of k-size grids set, ∑ k∈K α k =1; It represents the storage value of k-size express in the smart parcel box at the time (t-Δt) on the same day; represents the total number of k-size express parcels delivered by couriers in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the day; Based on the fact that the total number of k-size couriers placed in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day is the sum of the number of k-size couriers placed in the intelligent letter and parcel boxes at time t on the same day and the number of k-size couriers placed in the postal service room at time t on the same day, the number of k-size couriers placed in the postal service room at time t on the same day is The expression is: in, represents the total number of couriers delivering packages in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the day; β k represents the average probability of a user purchasing a k-size express delivery, ∑ k∈K β k =1; k represents the size type, k∈K; K represents the smart parcel box slot size type set, K={L,M,S,SS}; t represents the current time, which is an hourly moment, t∈T; Δt represents the time increment; (t-Δt) represents the previous time, which is an hourly moment, (t-Δt)∈T; T represents the time set, and the value of T is every hourly moment from 7:00 to 21:

00.

5. The method for estimating the vacancy rate of intelligent terminal delivery service facilities according to claim 1 is characterized in that: According to the total number of express deliveries taken out by users in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day, the storage value of k-size express deliveries in the intelligent letter and parcel box at time (t-Δt) on the same day, the storage value of k-size express deliveries in the postal service room at time (t-Δt) on the same day, and the number of k-size express deliveries put by couriers in the intelligent letter and parcel box at time t on the same day, and the number of k-size express deliveries put by couriers in the postal service room at time t on the same day, the number of k-size express deliveries taken out by users in the intelligent letter and parcel box at time t on the same day and the number of k-size express deliveries taken out by users in the postal service room at time t on the same day are determined, and the expression is: in, It represents the number of k-size parcels taken out by users from the smart parcel box at time t on the same day; represents the number of k-size parcels taken out by users in the postal service room at time t on the same day; It represents the total number of express deliveries picked up by users in the intelligent terminal delivery service facility at time t on the same day; It represents the storage value of k-size express in the smart parcel box at the time (t-Δt) on the same day; It represents the storage value of k-size express in the postal service room at the time (t-Δt) on the same day; It represents the number of k-size parcels placed by the courier in the smart parcel box at time t on the day; It represents the number of k-size express parcels delivered by couriers in the postal service room at time t on the same day; k represents the size type, k∈K; K represents the set of size types of smart letter and parcel box compartments, K={L,M,S,SS}; t represents the current time, which is an hourly moment, t∈T; Δt represents the time increment; (t-Δt) represents the previous time, which is an hourly moment, (t-Δt)∈T; T represents the time set, and the value of T is every hourly moment from 7:00 to 21:

00.

6. The method for estimating the vacancy rate of intelligent terminal delivery service facilities according to claim 1, characterized in that: According to the storage value of k-size express in the smart letter and parcel box at time (t-Δt) of the day, and the storage value of k-size express in the postal service room at time (t-Δt) of the day, combined with the number of k-size express delivered by couriers and the number of k-size express taken out by users in the smart letter and parcel box at time t of the day, and the number of k-size express delivered by couriers and the number of k-size express taken out by users in the postal service room at time t of the day, the storage value of k-size express in the smart letter and parcel box at time t of the day and the storage value of k-size express in the postal service room at time t of the day in the vacancy rate estimation model are solved, and the expression is: in, It represents the storage value of k-size express in the smart parcel box at time t on the same day; It represents the storage value of k-size express in the postal service room at time t of the day; It represents the storage value of k-size express in the smart parcel box at the time (t-Δt) on the same day; It represents the storage value of k-size express in the postal service room at the time (t-Δt) on the same day; It represents the number of k-size parcels placed by the courier in the smart parcel box at time t on the day; represents the number of k-size parcels delivered by couriers in the postal service room at time t on the day; It represents the number of k-size parcels taken out by users from the smart parcel box at time t on the same day; It represents the number of k-size express parcels taken out by users in the postal service room at time t on the same day; k represents the size type, k∈K; K represents the set of size types of the smart letter box compartment, K={L,M,S,SS}; t represents the current time, which is an hourly moment, t∈T; Δt represents the time increment; (t-Δt) represents the previous time, which is an hourly moment, (t-Δt)∈T; T represents the time set, and the value of T is every hourly moment from 7:00 to 21:

00.

7. The method for estimating the vacancy rate of intelligent terminal delivery service facilities according to claim 1, characterized in that: The method of setting the number ratio of each size of the intelligent letter box includes: The smart letter and parcel box includes: a large compartment, a medium compartment, a small compartment, and an extra-small compartment; wherein the large compartment is an L-size compartment for storing L-size express; the medium compartment is an M-size compartment for storing M-size express; the small compartment is an S-size compartment for storing S-size express; and the extra-small compartment is an SS-size compartment for storing SS-size express; According to the requirements for setting the ratio of the number of grid openings in the smart mailbox, the ratio of the number of grid openings of each size is set; among which, the number of large grid openings accounts for at least 5% of the total number of grid openings in the smart mailbox, the number of medium grid openings accounts for at least 20% of the total number of grid openings in the smart mailbox, the number of small grid openings accounts for at least 25% of the total number of grid openings in the smart mailbox, and the remaining grid openings in the smart mailbox are set as extra-small grid openings.

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