Evaluation method, device and medium for drought resistance of regional water supply projects

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of drought risk prediction and assessment, and discloses a method, device and medium for evaluating the drought resistance of a regional water supply project. The method comprises: acquiring data; establishing a regional water resource allocation system network diagram according to the mapping relationship between the supply and use of river systems, water supply projects and water use units in the region; dividing the water use types according to the different water use industries of each water use unit, and performing water demand analysis and calculation in different level years; performing water resource allocation analysis and calculation in different scenarios according to the construction conditions of water supply projects in each level year in the region; constructing a standardized water supply and demand index based on the results of water resource allocation analysis under different scenarios, and extracting regional socio-economic drought characteristics under different scenarios; constructing a regional water supply project drought resistance index based on the regional socio-economic drought characteristics under different scenarios, calculating the long-term drought resistance effect, evaluating the drought resistance of the regional water supply project, and providing a solid foundation for objectively identifying the drought resistance of the regional water supply project.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to the technical field of drought risk prediction and assessment, and in particular to a method, device and medium for evaluating the drought resistance of a regional water supply project. Background Art

[0002] Drought is a phenomenon of persistent water shortage caused by an imbalance between water supply and demand. It is one of the most serious environmental problems in the world. In recent years, the occurrence of drought has caused huge losses to the social economy and ecosystem, and has become a major natural disaster facing the world. How to actively resist drought has become a common concern. Among them, drought resistance evaluation is an important means to effectively identify the level of regional drought resistance risk, which is of great significance for formulating drought resistance plans and reducing drought risks.

[0003] According to literature research, drought resistance evaluation has gradually developed from agricultural drought resistance to regional drought resistance evaluation. Currently, it mainly includes two methods. The first is a comprehensive evaluation method based on multi-dimensional and multi-indicator. This method establishes an evaluation index system based on the water supply capacity of regional water conservancy projects, social and economic strength, production technology level, emergency drought resistance management level, regional background characteristics, etc., and determines the drought resistance through the weight coefficient. This method is greatly affected by the degree of perfection of the index system and the subjectivity of weight assignment, which affects the evaluation results; the second is a quantitative evaluation method based on the supply and demand relationship. This method describes the balance between the supply and demand of water under different level years and water inflow conditions by establishing a drought resistance level coefficient, and determines the relationship between the drought resistance level and the frequency of drought. To a certain extent, it avoids the subjective influence of the evaluation method based on the indicator system. However, on the one hand, this method does not consider the spatial relationship between regional supply and use of water. On the other hand, drought resistance is mainly judged based on drought frequency, and lacks understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics of long-term drought resistance effects.

[0004] Based on this, how to further evaluate the drought resistance of regional water supply projects in combination with regional economic and social development needs, water supply capacity and drought characteristics is a technical problem that urgently needs to be solved. Summary of the invention

[0005] In view of the shortcomings of the prior art mentioned above and targeting the difficulties in evaluating drought resistance, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a method, device and medium for evaluating the drought resistance of a regional water supply project, so as to fully consider the water demand requirements for regional economic and social development, the temporal and spatial storage capacity of the water supply project and its impact on the characteristics of socio-economic drought.

[0006] To achieve the above object, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is as follows:

[0007] According to a first aspect of the present invention, a method for evaluating drought resistance of a regional water supply project is provided, the method comprising:

[0008] Acquiring data, including basic geographic information data, hydrological and meteorological data, water supply project data, socio-economic indicator data, and water resources bulletin statistical data;

[0009] Establish a regional water resources allocation system network diagram based on the mapping relationship between river systems, water supply projects, and water use units in the region;

[0010] Divide water use types according to different water use industries of each water use unit, and perform water demand analysis and calculation at different levels. The water use types include domestic water, production water and ecological water;

[0011] According to the construction of water supply projects in each level year in the region, water resources allocation analysis and calculation under different scenarios are carried out;

[0012] Based on the results of water resource allocation analysis under different scenarios, a standardized water supply and demand index was constructed to extract regional socio-economic drought characteristics under different scenarios;

[0013] Based on the regional socio-economic drought characteristics under different scenarios, a regional water supply project drought resistance index was constructed, the long-term drought resistance effect was calculated, and the drought resistance capacity of regional water supply projects was evaluated.

[0014] Furthermore, the regional water resources allocation system network diagram is established based on the mapping relationship between the river systems, water supply projects and water use units in the region, specifically including:

[0015] Draw a river network diagram based on the topological relationship of the river system and the distribution of water supply projects in the basic geographic information;

[0016] To classify and process water supply projects in the region, including water storage projects, water diversion projects, groundwater projects, and water transfer projects;

[0017] Draw water use nodes. Water use units are determined by nesting sub-basins and administrative areas according to regional area and precision requirements. Different water use nodes are further divided within the water use unit according to water use objects, water use industries, and geographical locations;

[0018] Establish water intake routes based on the mapping relationship between water supply projects, water use units and water users, and determine water return routes based on actual water return conditions;

[0019] According to the priority of water supply projects to water users, the priority of water users in taking water from water supply projects, the priority of water users to water withdrawal points, and the topological structure of natural water systems, a directed acyclic graph of an ordered node activity network is formed and uniformly coded to obtain a regional water resources allocation system network diagram.

[0020] Furthermore, the grading and classification of water supply projects in the region specifically includes:

[0021] The water storage project is graded according to its scale and relationship with the water use unit. The water storage project includes reservoir projects, small reservoirs and ponds. The reservoir project is drawn as a separate water supply node, and the small reservoirs or ponds are packaged according to the water use unit division into equivalent reservoir or pond nodes.

[0022] The water diversion and lifting project includes a centralized water diversion and lifting project and a decentralized water diversion and lifting project. The centralized water diversion and lifting project is drawn as a separate water supply node, and the decentralized water diversion and lifting project is packaged and processed as an equivalent project according to the river system and water use unit in which it is located;

[0023] The groundwater project is packaged and processed according to the water use unit and water supply object;

[0024] The water diversion project is drawn based on the actual water source area, water supply line and water receiving area of ​​the water diversion project.

[0025] Furthermore, the water use types are divided according to the different water use industries of each water use unit, and the water demand analysis and calculation at different levels are performed, specifically including:

[0026] Steps for analyzing and calculating economic indicators at different levels of the year;

[0027] Steps for analyzing and calculating water demand at different levels;

[0028] The steps of analyzing and calculating the economic indicators of different levels in the year include:

[0029] Population forecast is done by the following formula (1):

[0030]

[0031] Where, POP0, POP k are the base year population at the initial moment and the population in the kth year, k0, k are the base year and year at the initial moment, r is the population growth rate, and N is the maximum threshold of population growth.

[0032] Furthermore, the steps of analyzing and calculating the water demand at different levels include:

[0033] The domestic water requirement is calculated by the following formula (2):

[0034] W t =C d ·POP t ·α·β / η (2)

[0035] Where W t is the water requirement for life, Cd is the net water demand quota, POP t is the population, α and β are the water price influence coefficient and water conservation awareness influence coefficient respectively, η is the pipe network leakage rate, and t is the calculation period;

[0036] The irrigation water requirement is calculated by the following formula (3):

[0037]

[0038] Where M t is the irrigation water requirement, ET t ,ET0 are the crop evapotranspiration water requirement and reference evapotranspiration water requirement, K c is the crop coefficient, Δ is the gradient of the saturated water vapor pressure-temperature curve, R n , G is the net radiation and soil heat flux, γ is the dry-bulb constant, T is the temperature, u is the wind speed, e is the s ,e a are the saturated water vapor pressure and the actual water vapor pressure, S t+1 ,S t are the soil moisture content at the beginning and end of the period, respectively, t is the precipitation, R t is the groundwater recharge, and t is the calculation period.

[0039] Furthermore, the water resources allocation analysis and calculation under different scenarios are carried out according to the construction status of water supply projects in each level year in the region, specifically including:

[0040] Inputting long series hydrological data into inflow nodes in a regional water resources allocation system network diagram, wherein the inflow nodes include river nodes, reservoir nodes, and groundwater nodes;

[0041] Inputting the long series water demand data into the off-river water demand nodes in the regional water resources allocation system network diagram, wherein the off-river water demand nodes include living water demand nodes, production water demand nodes, and ecological water demand nodes;

[0042] Input the long series of ecological flow water demand data into the river ecological control nodes;

[0043] According to the construction of water conservancy projects in different level years, the characteristic values ​​of water conservancy project parameters are input to carry out water resource allocation analysis and calculation in different scenarios. The characteristic values ​​of water conservancy project parameters include the water storage project regulating storage capacity, water intake channels, water transfer channels, water withdrawal channel water transfer capacity, water supply priority, water intake priority, and ecological water use priority.

[0044] Furthermore, based on the analysis results of water resource allocation under different scenarios, a standardized water supply and demand index is constructed to extract regional socio-economic drought characteristics under different scenarios, specifically including:

[0045] Based on the results of water resource allocation analysis under different scenarios, the long series of water supply and water use processes of each water user unit are obtained;

[0046] Water supply volume s based on the water resource supply and demand balance of each unit water user i and water demand d i The standardized water supply and demand index is used to characterize the socioeconomic drought events of each calculation unit:

[0047] x i =s i -d i (4)

[0048] In the formula, x, s, d are water shortage, water supply, and water demand, respectively, and i is the data sequence number;

[0049] The three-parameter log-logistic probability distribution is used to select the probability distribution function with the best fitting effect to fit the water shortage series. The cumulative probability function of the three-parameter log-logistic probability distribution is expressed as:

[0050]

[0051] In the formula, α, β, γ are scale parameters, shape parameters and location parameters respectively, and F(x) is the cumulative probability function, which standardizes the cumulative probability:

[0052]

[0053]

[0054] Where W is the standardized cumulative probability value, SSDI is the standardized water supply and demand index, c0, c1, c2, d1, d2, d3 are calculation coefficients;

[0055] According to the run theory, the socioeconomic drought characteristics of each water-using unit are calculated. The socioeconomic drought characteristics include drought duration and drought severity. The drought duration is the duration of a drought process, and the drought severity is the cumulative sum of all values ​​less than the cutoff level within the drought duration.

[0056] Furthermore, based on the regional socio-economic drought characteristics under different scenarios, a regional water supply project drought resistance index is constructed, including:

[0057] According to the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of drought intensity of socioeconomic drought in each water-using unit, the drought resistance index of regional water supply projects is constructed by the following formula:

[0058]

[0059] In the formula, DRI is the drought resistance index of regional water supply projects, dk is the water demand of the kth water-using unit, k, n are the water-using unit serial number and the total number of water-using units, α k is the weight coefficient of the kth water use unit, m is the total number of years, DS k,1 ,DS k,0 are the drought intensity of the kth water-using unit with and without water supply projects, respectively.

[0060] According to a second aspect of the present invention, a device for evaluating drought resistance of a regional water supply project is provided, the device comprising:

[0061] A data acquisition unit is configured to acquire data, wherein the data includes basic geographic information data, hydrological and meteorological data, water supply project data, social and economic indicator data, and water resources bulletin statistical data;

[0062] A network establishment unit is configured to establish a regional water resource allocation system network diagram according to a mapping relationship between the river system, water supply projects, and water use units in the region;

[0063] The water use division unit is configured to divide water use types according to different water use industries of each water use unit, and perform water demand analysis and calculation at different levels, wherein the water use types include domestic water, production water and ecological water;

[0064] A configuration calculation unit is configured to perform water resource allocation analysis and calculation under different scenarios according to the construction conditions of water supply projects in each level year in the region;

[0065] A feature extraction unit is configured to construct a standardized water supply and demand index based on the results of water resource allocation analysis under different scenarios, and extract regional socio-economic drought characteristics under different scenarios;

[0066] The drought resistance evaluation unit is configured to construct a drought resistance index for regional water supply projects based on regional socio-economic drought characteristics under different scenarios, calculate long-term drought resistance effects, and evaluate the drought resistance capacity of regional water supply projects.

[0067] According to a third aspect of the present invention, there is provided a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium storing instructions, which, when executed by a processor, executes the method for evaluating drought resistance of a regional water supply project as described above.

[0068] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0069] 1. Based on the spatial correspondence between water supply projects and water use units in the process of water resource allocation, the present invention can more accurately identify the supply and demand relationship characteristics of different regions and industries in the region, and provide a solid foundation for the objective identification of the drought resistance capacity of regional water supply projects.

[0070] 2. The present invention identifies the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the socioeconomic drought index under different water supply project scenarios through the supply-demand relationship of water resources allocation, and can characterize the spatiotemporal characteristics of the long-term drought resistance effect and drought resistance capacity of regional water supply projects in more detail. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0071] In the drawings, which are not necessarily drawn to scale, the same reference numerals may describe similar parts in different views. The same reference numerals with letter suffixes or different letter suffixes may represent different instances of similar parts. The accompanying drawings generally illustrate various embodiments by way of example and not limitation, and together with the specification and claims, are used to illustrate the embodiments of the invention. When appropriate, the same reference numerals are used throughout the drawings to refer to the same or similar parts. Such embodiments are illustrative and are not intended to be exhaustive or exclusive embodiments of the present apparatus or method.

[0072] Figure 1 The present invention is a flowchart of a method for evaluating drought resistance of a regional water supply project according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0073] Figure 2 It is a network diagram of the water resources configuration system in the study area according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0074] Figure 3 This is a graph showing changes in the socioeconomic drought index under different scenarios in the study area according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0075] Figure 4 This is a graph showing changes in the long-term drought resistance index of the water supply project in the study area according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0076] Figure 5 The present invention is a structural diagram of a device for evaluating drought resistance of a regional water supply project according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0077] The following examples are only for better explanation of the present invention, but the content of the present invention is not limited to the application in the examples. Therefore, those skilled in the art can make non-essential improvements and adjustments to the implementation scheme according to the above content of the invention and apply them to other examples, which are still within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0078] The present invention will now be further described with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0079] The present invention provides a method for evaluating the drought resistance of a regional water supply project. Figure 1 , which is a flow chart of the method, the method for evaluating drought resistance of regional water supply projects includes the following steps:

[0080] Step 1: Data preparation: collect and organize basic geographic information data, hydrological and meteorological data, water supply project data, socio-economic indicator data, and water resources bulletin statistical data in the study area.

[0081] It should be noted that the study area described here and below is only an example of an area used in this embodiment to fully illustrate the present invention.

[0082] The basic geographic information data of the study area collected and organized include digital elevation model data, river network vector data, and spatial distribution data of hydrological and meteorological stations; long series data of flow data of major river control hydrological stations, and long series data of meteorological data of meteorological stations; major water supply projects in the study area include water storage projects, water diversion projects, water transfer projects, groundwater project data, etc.; social and economic indicator data include population data, gross national product data, irrigated cultivated land area data, etc.; water resources bulletin statistical data include water supply data and water use data in the study area, etc.

[0083] This embodiment collects and organizes basic geographic information data in the study area, including digital elevation model data, river network vector data of the basin, and spatial distribution vector data of hydrological and meteorological stations; long series of flow data of major river control hydrological stations from 1973 to 2018, long series of meteorological data of meteorological stations from 1973 to 2018, precipitation, temperature, air pressure, wind speed, humidity, and sunshine data; major water conservancy projects in the study area include reservoirs and ponds of different sizes and other water storage projects, water diversion projects, water transfer projects, groundwater project well data, etc.; socio-economic indicator data include base year population data, gross national product data, arable land irrigation area data, etc.; water resources bulletin statistical data include water supply data of different types of projects in the study area in recent years, water use data of different industries, etc.

[0084] Step 2: Establish a regional water resources allocation system network diagram based on the mapping relationship between the river system, water supply projects, and water use units in the study area:

[0085] The water resources allocation network diagram is the basis for regional refined allocation analysis, and its establishment steps are as follows:

[0086] Step 201, based on the topological relationship of the river system of basic geographic information and the distribution of water supply projects, a river system section network diagram is drawn, with emphasis on a detailed description of the river sections with water supply projects.

[0087] Step 202, the water supply projects in the study area, including water storage projects, water diversion and lifting projects, groundwater projects, and water transfer projects, are graded and classified. Water storage projects are graded according to their scale and relationship with water use units. Major reservoir projects are drawn as separate water supply nodes, and small reservoirs or ponds are packaged and processed as equivalent reservoir or pond nodes according to water use unit divisions; water diversion and lifting projects include large and medium-sized centralized water diversion and lifting projects and small decentralized water diversion and lifting projects. Centralized water diversion and lifting projects are drawn as separate water supply nodes, and decentralized water diversion and lifting projects are packaged and processed as equivalent projects according to the river system and water use unit in which they are located; groundwater well projects are packaged and processed according to the water use unit and water supply object in which they are located; water transfer projects are drawn according to the actual water source area, water supply line and water receiving area of ​​the water diversion project.

[0088] Step 203, draw water use nodes. Water use units are determined by nesting sub-basins and administrative areas based on the area of ​​the study area and the level of sophistication required. Different water use nodes are further divided within the water use unit based on water use objects, water use industries, and geographical locations.

[0089] Step 204, establish a water intake path according to the water supply and water use mapping relationship between the water supply project, the water use unit and the water user, and determine the water return path according to the actual water return situation.

[0090] Step 205, based on the priority of the water supply project to the water user, the priority of the water user in taking water from the water supply project, and the water withdrawal priority of the water user to the withdrawal point, combined with the topological structure of the natural water system, a directed acyclic graph of an ordered node activity network is formed, and unified coding is performed to establish a regional water resources allocation system network diagram.

[0091] In this embodiment, a water resource allocation network diagram is constructed for the study area, including 28 reservoir nodes, 21 equivalent reservoir nodes, 21 groundwater engineering well nodes, 28 pond nodes, 63 water user nodes, 55 river nodes, 47 water intake nodes, 20 water withdrawal nodes, 196 water intake channels, 63 water withdrawal channels, 34 water transfer channels, and 117 river system sections. Figure 2 shown.

[0092] Step 3: Divide water use types according to the different water-using industries in each water-using unit, including domestic, production, and ecological water use, and carry out water demand analysis and calculation at different levels.

[0093] According to the annual demand for drought resistance evaluation, we first analyze and calculate the economic indicators in different years. Then, according to the different water-using industries in each water-using unit, we analyze and calculate the water use for life, production, and ecology in different years, including five categories: urban life, urban production, rural life, rural production, and river ecology.

[0094] (1) Analysis and calculation of economic indicators in different years

[0095] According to the needs of drought resistance assessment, a certain year in the past or a future planning year can be selected for analysis and calculation. The economic indicators of historical years can be obtained through the collected socioeconomic indicator data, including urban permanent population, rural permanent population, regional GDP, primary industry added value, secondary industry added value (industrial added value, construction industry added value), tertiary industry added value, urban greening water area, actual irrigation area of ​​farmland, forest and grassland irrigation area, livestock (large livestock, poultry) breeding, fish pond water replenishment area, etc. For the economic indicators of the future planning year, the collected socioeconomic indicator data can be combined with the relevant planning growth rate forecast, and the growth rate forecast method can be used. Taking population forecast as an example, the calculation formula is as follows:

[0096]

[0097] Where, POP0, POP k The distribution is the base year population at the initial moment and the population in the kth year, k0, k are the base year and year at the initial moment respectively, r is the population growth rate, and N is the maximum threshold of population growth.

[0098] (2) Analysis and calculation of water demand in different level years

[0099] According to the different water use industries of each water use unit, water use is divided into living, production, and ecological water use. The water use quota is determined in combination with the current water supply and water use data in the water resources bulletin, and water demand analysis and calculation are carried out for different level years, including five categories: urban life, urban production, rural life, rural production, and river ecology. Urban life includes urban residents' domestic water use, service industry water use, and public water use such as greening, which are calculated using the quota method based on urban population, service industry added value, and greening area; urban production includes general industrial water use and construction industry water use, which are calculated using industrial added value, construction industry added value and their quotas; rural life includes rural residents' domestic water use and livestock water use, which are calculated using the quota method based on rural population and livestock breeding; rural production includes farmland irrigation, forest and grassland irrigation, etc., which can be calculated through the quota determined by the long series irrigation system design and its annual distribution and irrigation area; river ecological water demand can be calculated and determined using methods such as Tennant.

[0100] Among them, taking the quota method of domestic water demand calculation as an example, the calculation formula is as follows:

[0101] W t =C d ·POP t ·α·β / η (2)

[0102] Where W t is the water requirement for life, C dis the net water demand quota, POP t is the population, α and β are the water price impact coefficient and water-saving awareness impact coefficient respectively, η is the pipe network leakage rate, and t is the calculation period.

[0103] The formula for calculating the water requirement for long series irrigation is as follows:

[0104]

[0105] Where M t is the irrigation water requirement, ET t ,ET0 are the crop evapotranspiration water requirement and reference evapotranspiration water requirement, K c is the crop coefficient, Δ is the gradient of the saturated water vapor pressure-temperature curve, R n , G is the net radiation and soil heat flux, γ is the dry-bulb constant, T is the temperature, u is the wind speed, e is the s ,e a are the saturated water vapor pressure and the actual water vapor pressure, S t+1 ,S t Soil moisture content at the beginning and end of each period, P t is the precipitation, R t is the groundwater recharge, and t is the calculation period.

[0106] This example calculates the water demand for the study area in the future 2035. The life, production and ecological water use outside the river in the study area are divided into 21 water use units. The economic indicators for 2035 are predicted based on the economic indicator data of the base year. Then, the water demand for urban life, urban production, rural life and rural production in each water use unit is predicted in combination with the economic and social development indicators and water quotas. For the ecological discharge demand of major rivers and reservoirs, the Tennant method is used to predict the ecological water demand in the river. The results of the economic and social development water demand outside the river in the 21 water use units are shown in Table 1.

[0107] Step 4: Consider the construction status of water supply projects in each level year in the study area and carry out water resource allocation analysis and calculation under different scenarios.

[0108] On the basis of constructing the water resources allocation network diagram and water demand analysis and calculation, water resources allocation analysis and calculation are carried out for each level year. First, the long series of hydrological data are input into each inflow node of the water resources allocation network diagram, including river nodes, reservoir nodes, groundwater nodes, etc.; the long series of water demand data are input into each water demand node outside the river channel of the water resources allocation network diagram, including living, production, and ecological water demand nodes; the long series of ecological flow water demand data are input into the river ecological control node; according to the construction situation of water conservancy projects in different level years, the characteristic values ​​of water conservancy project parameters are input, including the water storage project regulating storage capacity, water intake channels, water transfer channels, and water withdrawal channel water transfer capacity, water supply priority, water intake priority, and ecological water use priority, and water resources allocation analysis and calculation under different scenarios are carried out.

[0109] This example analyzes and calculates the water resource allocation in the study area in 2035, considering two scenarios: the current project situation and the future new project situation. The results of the water resource allocation supply and demand analysis under different scenarios are shown in Tables 1 and 2. The total water demand in 2035 is 1.407 billion m 3 Under the current engineering conditions, the total water supply in the study area is 1.059 billion m 3 , the water shortage is 348 million m 3 ; The total water supply in the study area under the condition of new construction is 1.393 billion m 3 , the water shortage is 14.39 million m 3 .

[0110] Table 1 Water resources allocation supply and demand analysis results under current engineering conditions (unit: 10,000 m 3 )

[0111]

[0112]

[0113] Table 2 Water resources allocation supply and demand analysis results under new construction projects (unit: 10,000 m 3 )

[0114]

[0115] Step 5: Based on the results of water resource allocation analysis under different scenarios, a standardized water supply and demand index is constructed to extract regional socioeconomic drought characteristics under different scenarios.

[0116] Based on the results of the water resources allocation supply and demand analysis in step 4, the long series of water supply and water use processes of each water user unit are obtained, and the water supply volume s based on the water resources supply and demand balance of each water user unit is obtained. i and water demand d i The standardized water supply and demand index is used to characterize the socioeconomic drought events of each calculation unit.

[0117] xi =s i -d i (4)

[0118] In the formula, x, s, d are water shortage, water supply, and water demand respectively, and i is the data sequence number.

[0119] The probability distribution function with the best fitting effect is selected by using empirical frequency distribution, three-parameter log-logistic probability distribution, etc. to fit the water shortage series. Taking the three-parameter log-logistic probability distribution as an example, its cumulative probability function is:

[0120]

[0121] In the formula, α, β, γ are scale parameters, shape parameters and location parameters respectively, and F(x) is the cumulative probability function, which standardizes the cumulative probability:

[0122]

[0123]

[0124] Where W is the standardized cumulative probability value, SSDI is the standardized water supply and demand index, c0, c1, c2, d1, d2, d3 are calculation coefficients,

[0125] c0=2.515517, c1=0.802853, c2=0.010328, d1=1.432788, d2=0.189269, d3=0.001308.

[0126] According to the run theory, the socioeconomic drought characteristics of each water-using unit are calculated, including drought duration and drought intensity. The drought duration is the duration of a drought process, and the drought intensity is the cumulative sum of all values ​​less than the cutoff level within the drought duration.

[0127] This example calculates the socioeconomic drought characteristics of the study area in 2035, considers the two scenarios of the current engineering situation and the future new construction situation, selects the probability distribution function with the best fitting effect, and calculates the socioeconomic drought index. The changes in the socioeconomic drought index of a water use unit under the two scenarios of the current engineering situation and the future new construction situation are shown in Figure 3 As shown in the results, from the perspective of the duration of drought, the duration of drought is greatly shortened under the condition of new construction; at the same time, the frequency of drought each year can be effectively reduced under the condition of new construction, especially the light drought and moderate drought are greatly improved, and it also has a certain alleviating effect on the severe drought and extreme drought.

[0128] Step 6: Based on the regional socio-economic drought characteristic parameters, construct the drought resistance index of the regional water supply project, calculate the long-term drought resistance effect, and evaluate the drought resistance capacity of the regional water supply project:

[0129] According to the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of drought intensity of socioeconomic drought in each water-using unit, a regional water supply project drought resistance index is constructed to evaluate the drought resistance of regional water supply projects.

[0130]

[0131] In the formula, DRI is the drought resistance index of the regional water supply project, d is the water demand, k and n are the water unit number and the total number of water units, α k is the weight coefficient of the kth unit, m is the total number of years, DS k,1 ,DS k,0 are the socioeconomic drought intensity of the kth water-using unit with and without water supply projects, respectively.

[0132] This example evaluates the drought resistance of new regional projects in the study area in 2035. The drought resistance effect of regional water supply projects under long-term water inflow conditions is shown in Figure 2. Figure 4 According to the calculation results, under the condition of the new project, the annual average drought situation has been reduced from -1.75 in the past to -0.50, and the regional drought resistance index is 1.25. From the perspective of the spatial distribution of each water-using unit, the maximum drought resistance index reaches 4.43.

[0133] Table 3 Evaluation results of drought resistance capacity of each water-use unit in the region under the condition of new construction in 2035

[0134]

[0135] The embodiment of the present invention provides a device for evaluating drought resistance of a regional water supply project. Figure 5 As shown, the device 500 includes:

[0136] The data acquisition unit 501 is configured to acquire data, wherein the data includes basic geographic information data, hydrological and meteorological data, water supply project data, social and economic indicator data, and water resources bulletin statistical data;

[0137] The network establishment unit 502 is configured to establish a regional water resource allocation system network diagram according to the mapping relationship between the river system, water supply projects, and water use units in the region;

[0138] The water use division unit 503 is configured to divide water use types according to different water use industries of each water use unit, and perform water demand analysis and calculation at different levels. The water use types include domestic water, production water and ecological water;

[0139] The configuration calculation unit 504 is configured to perform water resource configuration analysis and calculation in different scenarios according to the construction conditions of water supply projects in each level year in the region;

[0140] The feature extraction unit 505 is configured to construct a standardized water supply and demand index based on the results of water resource allocation analysis under different scenarios, and extract regional socio-economic drought characteristics under different scenarios;

[0141] The drought resistance evaluation unit 506 is configured to construct a drought resistance index for a regional water supply project based on regional socio-economic drought characteristics under different scenarios, calculate long-term drought resistance effects, and evaluate the drought resistance capacity of a regional water supply project.

[0142] The network establishing unit is further configured to:

[0143] Draw a river network diagram based on the topological relationship of the river system and the distribution of water supply projects in the basic geographic information;

[0144] To classify and process water supply projects in the region, including water storage projects, water diversion projects, groundwater projects, and water transfer projects;

[0145] Draw water use nodes. Water use units are determined by nesting sub-basins and administrative areas according to regional area and precision requirements. Different water use nodes are further divided within the water use unit according to water use objects, water use industries, and geographical locations;

[0146] Establish water intake routes based on the mapping relationship between water supply projects, water use units and water users, and determine water return routes based on actual water return conditions;

[0147] According to the priority of water supply projects to water users, the priority of water users in taking water from water supply projects, the priority of water users to water withdrawal points, and the topological structure of natural water systems, a directed acyclic graph of an ordered node activity network is formed and uniformly coded to obtain a regional water resources allocation system network diagram.

[0148] The network establishing unit is further configured to:

[0149] The water storage project is graded according to its scale and relationship with the water use unit. The water storage project includes reservoir projects, small reservoirs and ponds. The reservoir project is drawn as a separate water supply node, and the small reservoirs or ponds are packaged according to the water use unit division into equivalent reservoir or pond nodes.

[0150] The water diversion and lifting project includes a centralized water diversion and lifting project and a decentralized water diversion and lifting project. The centralized water diversion and lifting project is drawn as a separate water supply node, and the decentralized water diversion and lifting project is packaged and processed as an equivalent project according to the river system and water use unit in which it is located;

[0151] The groundwater project is packaged and processed according to the water use unit and water supply object;

[0152] The water diversion project is drawn based on the actual water source area, water supply line and water receiving area of ​​the water diversion project.

[0153] The water division unit is further configured as follows:

[0154] Steps for analyzing and calculating economic indicators at different levels of the year;

[0155] Steps for analyzing and calculating water demand at different levels;

[0156] The steps of analyzing and calculating the economic indicators of different levels in the year include:

[0157] Population forecast is done by the following formula (1):

[0158]

[0159] Where, POP0, POP k are the base year population at the initial moment and the population in the kth year, k0, k are the base year and year at the initial moment, r is the population growth rate, and N is the maximum threshold of population growth.

[0160] The water division unit is further configured as follows:

[0161] The living water requirement is calculated by the following formula (2):

[0162] W t =C d ·POP t ·α·β / η (2)

[0163] Where W t is the water requirement for life, C d is the net water demand quota, POP t is the population, α and β are the water price influence coefficient and water conservation awareness influence coefficient respectively, η is the pipe network leakage rate, and t is the calculation period;

[0164] The irrigation water requirement is calculated by the following formula (3):

[0165]

[0166] Where M t is the irrigation water requirement, ET t ,ET0 are the crop evapotranspiration water requirement and reference evapotranspiration water requirement, K c is the crop coefficient, Δ is the gradient of the saturated water vapor pressure-temperature curve, R n, G is the net radiation and soil heat flux, γ is the dry-bulb constant, T is the temperature, u is the wind speed, e s ,e a are the saturated water vapor pressure and the actual water vapor pressure, S t+1 ,S t are the soil moisture content at the beginning and end of the period, P t is the precipitation, R t is the groundwater recharge, and t is the calculation period.

[0167] The configuration calculation unit is further configured to:

[0168] Inputting long series hydrological data into inflow nodes in a regional water resources allocation system network diagram, wherein the inflow nodes include river nodes, reservoir nodes, and groundwater nodes;

[0169] Inputting the long series water demand data into the off-river water demand nodes in the regional water resources allocation system network diagram, wherein the off-river water demand nodes include living water demand nodes, production water demand nodes, and ecological water demand nodes;

[0170] Input the long series of ecological flow water demand data into the river ecological control nodes;

[0171] According to the construction of water conservancy projects in different level years, the characteristic values ​​of water conservancy project parameters are input to carry out water resource allocation analysis and calculation in different scenarios. The characteristic values ​​of water conservancy project parameters include the water storage project regulating storage capacity, water intake channels, water transfer channels, water withdrawal channel water transfer capacity, water supply priority, water intake priority, and ecological water use priority.

[0172] The feature extraction unit is further configured to:

[0173] Based on the results of water resource allocation analysis under different scenarios, the long series of water supply and water use processes of each water user unit are obtained;

[0174] Water supply volume s based on the water resource supply and demand balance of each unit water user i and water demand d i The standardized water supply and demand index is used to characterize the socioeconomic drought events of each calculation unit:

[0175] x i =s i -d i (4)

[0176] In the formula, x, s, d are water shortage, water supply, and water demand, respectively, and i is the data sequence number;

[0177] The three-parameter log-logistic probability distribution is used to select the probability distribution function with the best fitting effect to fit the water shortage series. The cumulative probability function of the three-parameter log-logistic probability distribution is expressed as:

[0178]

[0179] In the formula, α, β, γ are scale parameters, shape parameters and location parameters respectively, and F(x) is the cumulative probability function, which standardizes the cumulative probability:

[0180]

[0181]

[0182] Where W is the standardized cumulative probability value, SSDI is the standardized water supply and demand index, c0, c1, c2, d1, d2, d3 are calculation coefficients;

[0183] According to the run theory, the socioeconomic drought characteristics of each water-using unit are calculated. The socioeconomic drought characteristics include drought duration and drought severity. The drought duration is the duration of a drought process, and the drought severity is the cumulative sum of all values ​​less than the cutoff level within the drought duration.

[0184] The drought resistance evaluation unit is further configured as follows:

[0185] According to the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of drought intensity of socioeconomic drought in each water-using unit, the drought resistance index of regional water supply projects is constructed by the following formula:

[0186]

[0187] In the formula, DRI is the drought resistance index of regional water supply projects, d k is the water demand of the kth water-using unit, k, n are the water-using unit serial number and the total number of water-using units, α k is the weight coefficient of the kth water use unit, m is the total number of years, DS k,1 ,DS k,0 are the drought intensity of the kth water-using unit with and without water supply projects, respectively.

[0188] It should be noted that the various device structures described in this embodiment belong to the same technical concept as the previously described method, and achieve the same technical effect through the same principle, which will not be repeated here.

[0189] An embodiment of the present invention further provides a non-temporary computer-readable storage medium storing instructions, and when the instructions are executed by a processor, the method for evaluating the drought resistance capacity of a regional water supply project as described in any of the above embodiments is executed.

[0190] The above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit the same. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments may still be modified, or some or all of the technical features thereof may be replaced by equivalents. Such modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, and all of them should be included in the scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating drought resistance of a regional water supply project, characterized in that: The method comprises: Acquiring data, including basic geographic information data, hydrological and meteorological data, water supply project data, socio-economic indicator data, and water resources bulletin statistical data; Establish a regional water resources allocation system network diagram based on the mapping relationship between river systems, water supply projects, and water use units in the region; Divide water use types according to different water use industries of each water use unit, and perform water demand analysis and calculation at different levels. The water use types include domestic water, production water and ecological water; According to the construction of water supply projects in each level year in the region, water resources allocation analysis and calculation under different scenarios are carried out; Based on the results of water resource allocation analysis under different scenarios, a standardized water supply and demand index was constructed to extract regional socio-economic drought characteristics under different scenarios; Based on the regional socio-economic drought characteristics under different scenarios, the drought resistance index of regional water supply projects was constructed, the long-term drought resistance effect was calculated, and the drought resistance capacity of regional water supply projects was evaluated; The regional water resources allocation system network diagram is established based on the mapping relationship between the river system, water supply projects and water use units in the region, specifically including: Draw a river network diagram based on the topological relationship of the river system and the distribution of water supply projects in the basic geographic information; Water supply projects in the region are graded and classified, including water storage projects, water diversion projects, groundwater projects, and water transfer projects; Draw water use nodes. Water use units are determined by nesting sub-basins and administrative areas according to regional area and precision requirements. Different water use nodes are further divided within the water use unit according to water use objects, water use industries, and geographical locations; Establish water intake routes based on the mapping relationship between water supply projects, water use units and water users, and determine water return routes based on actual water return conditions; According to the priority of water supply projects to water users, the priority of water users to take water from water supply projects, the priority of water users to water withdrawal points, and the topological structure of natural water systems, a directed acyclic graph of an ordered node activity network is formed and uniformly coded to obtain a regional water resources allocation system network diagram; The water use types are divided according to the different water use industries of each water use unit, and the water demand analysis and calculation of different levels are carried out, specifically including: Steps for analyzing and calculating economic indicators at different levels of the year; Steps for analyzing and calculating water demand at different levels; The steps of analyzing and calculating the economic indicators of different levels in the year include: Population forecast is done by the following formula (1): Where, POP0, POP K are the base year population at the initial moment and the population in the Kth year, respectively; K0 and K are the base year and year at the initial moment, respectively; r is the population growth rate, and N is the maximum threshold of population growth; The steps of analyzing and calculating water demand in different levels include: The domestic water requirement is calculated by the following formula (2): W t =C d ·POP t ·a·b / n (2) Where W t is the water requirement for life, C d is the net water demand quota, POP t is the population, α and β are the water price influence coefficient and water conservation awareness influence coefficient respectively, η is the pipe network leakage rate, and t is the calculation period; The irrigation water requirement is calculated by the following formula (3): Where M t is the irrigation water requirement, ET t ,ET0 are the crop evapotranspiration water requirement and reference evapotranspiration water requirement, K c is the crop coefficient, Δ is the gradient of the saturated water vapor pressure-temperature curve, R n , G is the net radiation and soil heat flux, γ1 is the dry-bulb constant, T is the temperature, u is the wind speed, e s ,e a are the saturated water vapor pressure and the actual water vapor pressure, S t+1 ,S t are the soil moisture content at the beginning and end of the period, respectively, t is the precipitation, R t is the groundwater recharge, t is the calculation period; According to the construction of water supply projects in each level year in the region, water resources allocation analysis and calculation under different scenarios are carried out, specifically including: Inputting long series hydrological data into inflow nodes in a regional water resources allocation system network diagram, wherein the inflow nodes include river nodes, reservoir nodes, and groundwater nodes; Inputting the long series water demand data into the off-river water demand nodes in the regional water resources allocation system network diagram, wherein the off-river water demand nodes include living water demand nodes, production water demand nodes, and ecological water demand nodes; Input the long series of ecological flow water demand data into the river ecological control nodes; According to the construction of water conservancy projects in different level years, input the characteristic values ​​of water conservancy project parameters to carry out water resource allocation analysis and calculation in different scenarios. The characteristic values ​​of water conservancy project parameters include the regulating storage capacity of water storage projects, water intake channels, water transfer channels, water delivery capacity of water return channels, water supply priority, water intake priority, and ecological water use priority; Based on the results of water resource allocation analysis under different scenarios, a standardized water supply and demand index is constructed to extract regional socio-economic drought characteristics under different scenarios, including: Based on the results of water resource allocation analysis under different scenarios, the long series of water supply and water use processes of each water user unit are obtained; Water supply volume s based on the water resource supply and demand balance of each unit water user i and water demand d i The standardized water supply and demand index is used to characterize the socioeconomic drought events of each calculation unit: x i =s i -d i (4) In the formula, x i ,s i ,d i They are water shortage, water supply and water demand respectively, and i is the data sequence number; The three-parameter log-logistic probability distribution is used to select the probability distribution function with the best fitting effect to fit the water shortage series. The cumulative probability function of the three-parameter log-logistic probability distribution is expressed as: In the formula, α, β, γ are scale parameters, shape parameters and location parameters respectively, and F(x) is the cumulative probability function, which standardizes the cumulative probability: Where W is the standardized cumulative probability value, SSDI is the standardized water supply and demand index, c0, c1, c2, d1, d2, d3 are calculation coefficients; According to the run theory, the socio-economic drought characteristics of each water-using unit are calculated. The socio-economic drought characteristics include drought duration and drought severity. The drought duration is the duration of a drought process, and the drought severity is the cumulative sum of all values ​​less than the cutoff level within the drought duration. Based on the regional socio-economic drought characteristics under different scenarios, a regional water supply project drought resistance index is constructed, including: According to the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of drought intensity of socioeconomic drought in each water-using unit, the drought resistance index of regional water supply projects is constructed by the following formula: In the formula, DRI is the drought resistance index of regional water supply projects, d k is the water demand of the kth water-using unit, k, n are the water-using unit serial number and the total number of water-using units, α k is the weight coefficient of the kth water use unit, m is the total number of years, DS k,1 ,DS k,0 are the drought intensity of the kth water-using unit with and without water supply projects, respectively.

2. The method for evaluating drought resistance of a regional water supply project according to claim 1, characterized in that: The above-mentioned classification and treatment of water supply projects in the region specifically includes: The water storage project is graded according to its scale and relationship with the water use unit. The water storage project includes reservoir projects, small reservoirs and ponds. The reservoir project is drawn as a separate water supply node, and the small reservoirs or ponds are packaged according to the water use unit division into equivalent reservoir or pond nodes. The water diversion and lifting project includes a centralized water diversion and lifting project and a decentralized water diversion and lifting project. The centralized water diversion and lifting project is drawn as a separate water supply node, and the decentralized water diversion and lifting project is packaged and processed as an equivalent project according to the river system and water use unit in which it is located; The groundwater project is packaged and processed according to the water use unit and water supply object; The water diversion project is drawn based on the actual water source area, water supply line and water receiving area of ​​the water diversion project.

3. A device for evaluating drought resistance of a regional water supply project, characterized in that: The device comprises: A data acquisition unit is configured to acquire data, wherein the data includes basic geographic information data, hydrological and meteorological data, water supply project data, social and economic indicator data, and water resources bulletin statistical data; A network establishment unit is configured to establish a regional water resource allocation system network diagram according to a mapping relationship between the river system, water supply projects, and water use units in the region; The water use division unit is configured to divide water use types according to different water use industries of each water use unit, and perform water demand analysis and calculation at different levels, wherein the water use types include domestic water, production water and ecological water; A configuration calculation unit is configured to perform water resource allocation analysis and calculation under different scenarios according to the construction conditions of water supply projects in each level year in the region; A feature extraction unit is configured to construct a standardized water supply and demand index based on the results of water resource allocation analysis under different scenarios, and extract regional socio-economic drought characteristics under different scenarios; The drought resistance evaluation unit is configured to construct a drought resistance index for regional water supply projects based on regional socio-economic drought characteristics under different scenarios, calculate long-term drought resistance effects, and evaluate the drought resistance capacity of regional water supply projects; The network establishing unit is further configured to: Draw a river network diagram based on the topological relationship of the river system and the distribution of water supply projects in the basic geographic information; Water supply projects in the region are graded and classified, including water storage projects, water diversion projects, groundwater projects, and water transfer projects; Draw water use nodes. Water use units are determined by nesting sub-basins and administrative areas according to regional area and precision requirements. Different water use nodes are further divided within the water use unit according to water use objects, water use industries, and geographical locations; Establish water intake routes based on the mapping relationship between water supply projects, water use units and water users, and determine water return routes based on actual water return conditions; According to the priority of water supply projects to water users, the priority of water users to take water from water supply projects, the priority of water users to water withdrawal points, and the topological structure of natural water systems, a directed acyclic graph of an ordered node activity network is formed and uniformly coded to obtain a regional water resources allocation system network diagram; The water division unit is further configured as follows: Steps for analyzing and calculating economic indicators at different levels of the year; Steps for analyzing and calculating water demand at different levels; The steps of analyzing and calculating the economic indicators of different levels in the year include: Population forecast is done by the following formula (1): Where, POP0, POP K are the base year population at the initial moment and the population in the Kth year, respectively; K0 and K are the base year and year at the initial moment, respectively; r is the population growth rate, and N is the maximum threshold of population growth; The steps of analyzing and calculating water demand in different levels include: The domestic water requirement is calculated by the following formula (2): W t =C d ·POP t ·a·b / n (2) Where W t is the water requirement for life, C d is the net water demand quota, POP t is the population, α and β are the water price influence coefficient and water conservation awareness influence coefficient respectively, η is the pipe network leakage rate, and t is the calculation period; The irrigation water requirement is calculated by the following formula (3): Where M t is the irrigation water requirement, ET t ,ET0 are the crop evapotranspiration water requirement and reference evapotranspiration water requirement, K c is the crop coefficient, Δ is the gradient of the saturated water vapor pressure-temperature curve, R n , G is the net radiation and soil heat flux, γ1 is the dry-bulb constant, T is the temperature, u is the wind speed, e s ,e a are the saturated water vapor pressure and the actual water vapor pressure, S t+1 ,S t are the soil moisture content at the beginning and end of the period, respectively, t is the precipitation, R t is the groundwater recharge, t is the calculation period; The configuration calculation unit is further configured to: Inputting long series hydrological data into inflow nodes in a regional water resources allocation system network diagram, wherein the inflow nodes include river nodes, reservoir nodes, and groundwater nodes; Inputting the long series water demand data into the off-river water demand nodes in the regional water resources allocation system network diagram, wherein the off-river water demand nodes include living water demand nodes, production water demand nodes, and ecological water demand nodes; Input the long series of ecological flow water demand data into the river ecological control nodes; According to the construction of water conservancy projects in different level years, input the characteristic values ​​of water conservancy project parameters to carry out water resource allocation analysis and calculation in different scenarios. The characteristic values ​​of water conservancy project parameters include the regulating storage capacity of water storage projects, water intake channels, water transfer channels, water delivery capacity of water return channels, water supply priority, water intake priority, and ecological water use priority; The feature extraction unit is further configured to: Based on the results of water resource allocation analysis under different scenarios, the long series of water supply and water use processes of each water user unit are obtained; Water supply volume s based on the water resource supply and demand balance of each unit water user i and water demand d i The standardized water supply and demand index is used to characterize the socioeconomic drought events of each calculation unit: x i =s i -d i (4) In the formula, x i ,s i ,d i They are water shortage, water supply and water demand respectively, and i is the data sequence number; The three-parameter log-logistic probability distribution is used to select the probability distribution function with the best fitting effect to fit the water shortage series. The cumulative probability function of the three-parameter log-logistic probability distribution is expressed as: In the formula, α, β, γ are scale parameters, shape parameters and location parameters respectively, and F(x) is the cumulative probability function, which standardizes the cumulative probability: Where W is the standardized cumulative probability value, SSDI is the standardized water supply and demand index, c0, c1, c2, d1, d2, d3 are calculation coefficients; According to the run theory, the socio-economic drought characteristics of each water-using unit are calculated. The socio-economic drought characteristics include drought duration and drought severity. The drought duration is the duration of a drought process, and the drought severity is the cumulative sum of all values ​​less than the cutoff level within the drought duration. The drought resistance evaluation unit is further configured as follows: According to the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of drought intensity of socioeconomic drought in each water-using unit, the drought resistance index of regional water supply projects is constructed by the following formula: In the formula, DRI is the drought resistance index of regional water supply projects, d k is the water demand of the kth water-using unit, k, n are the water-using unit serial number and the total number of water-using units, α k is the weight coefficient of the kth water use unit, m is the total number of years, DS k,1 ,DS k,0 are the drought intensity of the kth water-using unit with and without water supply projects, respectively.

4. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium storing instructions, which, when executed by a processor, executes the method for evaluating the drought resistance capacity of a regional water supply project according to any one of claims 1 to 2.

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