Simulation method of water resources management based on multi-agent

Abstract

The present invention relates to the technical field of water resource management, and relates to a water resource management simulation method based on multiple agents. The method includes obtaining different data sources corresponding to river basins; constructing a water resource management model, creating a water resource management subject, multiple agricultural irrigation subjects, a natural sub-model and a social sub-model in the water resource management model, and establishing social connections between multiple agricultural irrigation subjects, wherein the social sub-model is used to provide a common pond game framework; the water resource management model obtains data sources, the natural sub-model estimates and outputs crop water requirements driven by meteorological data, the agricultural irrigation subject simulates and outputs irrigation water use decisions based on historical water resource survey data, crop water requirements and water resource management decisions under the common pond game framework, and the water resource management subject simulates water resource management decisions and their impact under the common pond game framework. The present application can more accurately depict the agricultural irrigation water use decision-making process and more realistically simulate the impact of water resource management.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to the technical field of water resource management, and in particular to a multi-agent-based water resource management simulation method. Background Art

[0002] Water resource management requires models to simulate the allocation of water resources in river basins under different water conditions. Different river basins have water resource allocation systems that stipulate how much water each city and county can use.

[0003] Existing water resources management models are usually based on the assumption that the relationship between water-related entities and water resources remains unchanged. This assumption has limitations in practical applications and cannot accurately predict the response measures of water-related entities under the influence of future climate change and policy scenarios. It has poor accuracy in depicting agricultural water use decisions and cannot truly reflect the actual water resources management process and help adjust the allocation of water resources. Summary of the invention

[0004] The technical problem to be solved by the embodiments of the present invention is to provide a water resource management simulation method based on multiple agents to solve the problem that the water resource management model in the prior art has poor accuracy in describing agricultural water use decisions and cannot truly reflect the actual water resource use management process.

[0005] The present invention discloses a multi-agent-based water resources management simulation method for simulating water use management of river basin water resources, comprising:

[0006] Obtain different data sources for the corresponding river basins, including historical water resources survey data and meteorological data;

[0007] Constructing a water resource management model, creating a water resource management subject, multiple agricultural irrigation subjects, a natural sub-model and a social sub-model in the water resource management model, and establishing social connections between multiple agricultural irrigation subjects, wherein the water resource management subject is used to simulate water resource management decisions and their impacts, the agricultural irrigation subject is used to simulate output irrigation water use decisions, and the social sub-model is used to provide a common pond game framework;

[0008] The water resource management model obtains the data source, the natural sub-model estimates and outputs crop water requirements driven by the meteorological data, the agricultural irrigation entity simulates and outputs irrigation water use decisions based on the historical water resource survey data, crop water requirements and water resource management decisions under the common pond game framework, and the water resource management entity simulates water resource management decisions and their impacts under the common pond game framework.

[0009] Optionally, the irrigation water use decision simulated and output by the agricultural irrigation entity includes simulated output of underground water withdrawal, surface water withdrawal and water withdrawal exceeding the quota.

[0010] Optionally, the natural sub-model is also used to output effective precipitation driven by meteorological data, and the agricultural irrigation subject simulates and outputs irrigation water use decisions based on the historical water resources survey data, crop water requirements and water resources management decisions under the common pond game framework, specifically including the following steps:

[0011] Calculate agricultural water consumption and crop water requirements for the corresponding historical period based on the historical water resources survey data;

[0012] Obtaining irrigation efficiency based on the agricultural water consumption and the crop water demand in the corresponding historical period;

[0013] Agricultural irrigation entities output underground water withdrawal, surface water withdrawal and water withdrawal exceeding the quota based on the water demand of the crops, irrigation efficiency, effective precipitation and water resource quota stipulated in the water resource policy;

[0014] Agricultural irrigation entities use genetic algorithms to optimize the output of final water withdrawal, surface water withdrawal, and water withdrawal exceeding water resource quota under the framework of common pond game.

[0015] Optionally, the agricultural irrigation subject calculates and outputs underground water withdrawal, surface water withdrawal and water withdrawal exceeding the water resource quota based on the crop water demand, irrigation efficiency, effective precipitation and water resource quota specified in the water resource policy output by the natural sub-model through the following formula:

[0016]

[0017] In the formula, The effective irrigation range is within the grid The water requirement of crops, The effective irrigation range is within the grid The effective precipitation The effective irrigation range is within the grid of irrigation water, is the amount of groundwater withdrawal, is the surface water withdrawal, For water withdrawal exceeding the water resource quota, For irrigation efficiency.

[0018] Optionally, the natural sub-model calculates the crop water requirement by the following formula:

[0019]

[0020] In the formula, For a specific time The water requirement of crops in For a specific time The reference evapotranspiration within For a specific time The crop evapotranspiration coefficient within is the stress coefficient that depends on the available soil moisture.

[0021] Optionally, the natural sub-model calculates effective precipitation using the following formula:

[0022]

[0023] In the formula, For a specific time The effective precipitation in For a specific time The amount of precipitation within.

[0024] Alternatively, crop evapotranspiration is calculated using the single crop coefficient method using the following formula:

[0025]

[0026] In the formula, The effective irrigation range is within the grid of crop evapotranspiration, The effective irrigation range is within the grid is the precipitation, The effective irrigation range is within the grid The temperature, The effective irrigation range is within the grid The wind speed, The effective irrigation range is within the grid The reference evapotranspiration, The effective irrigation range is within the grid of irrigation water, The effective irrigation range is within the grid types of crops grown.

[0027] Optionally, the common pond game framework of the social sub-model calculates the game benefits of a single agricultural irrigation subject by the following formula:

[0028]

[0029] In the formula is the game benefit of a single agricultural irrigation entity, is the cost contributed by a single agricultural irrigation entity to the collective, For agricultural irrigation The strategy variables, is the public revenue coefficient, is the number of agricultural irrigation entities, for The overall benefits of each agricultural irrigation entity;

[0030] Among them, agricultural irrigation entities with social connections learn better strategies according to their different game benefits. The decision-making influence of a single agricultural irrigation entity is represented by the following formula:

[0031]

[0032] In the formula, For agricultural irrigation At time step decision, For agricultural irrigation At time step The gaming income, For agricultural irrigation At time step Gaming benefits, agricultural irrigation entities Agricultural irrigation entities Any two agricultural irrigation entities that have social connections with each other.

[0033] Optionally, the cost contributed by the individual agricultural irrigation subject to the collective is an equally weighted average of the social cost and the economic cost of the individual agricultural irrigation subject, and the social cost is calculated by the following formula:

[0034]

[0035] The economic cost is calculated by the following formula:

[0036]

[0037] In the formula, is the social cost of a single agricultural irrigation entity, and These are social norm parameters that can be measured using questionnaires in research. The number of times a single agricultural irrigation entity discovered that others were using water in violation of regulations. The number of times a single agricultural irrigation entity was found to have used water in violation of regulations by other agricultural irrigation entities. is the economic cost of a single agricultural irrigation entity, is the total agricultural income of a single agricultural irrigation entity, The irrigation cost is the difference in water use from surface water to groundwater. is the surface water price, is the groundwater price.

[0038] Optionally, the water resource management subject simulates the water resource management decision under the common pond game framework, including simulating the allocation of surface water to agricultural irrigation subjects, and the allocated surface water is calculated by the following formula:

[0039]

[0040] In the formula, The total amount of surface water allocated by the water resources management entity to multiple agricultural irrigation entities, The surface water withdrawal amount planned to be allocated to agricultural irrigation entities, The amount of water taken that exceeds the water resource quota.

[0041] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effect of the multi-agent water resource management simulation method provided by the embodiment of the present invention is that: by constructing a water resource management model, a water resource management subject, multiple agricultural irrigation subjects, a natural sub-model and a social sub-model are created in the water resource management model, and the connection between multiple agricultural irrigation subjects is established. The agricultural irrigation subject can simulate and output irrigation water use decisions based on the historical water resource survey data obtained, the crop water demand output by the natural sub-model, and the water resource management subject's simulated output under the common pond game framework of the social sub-model. It integrates natural factors and social factors and the mutual influence between the two, and introduces a common pond game framework. Different agricultural irrigation subjects and water resource management subjects will simulate the final irrigation water use decision and water resource management decision and the influence of water resource management decision in the game process. Therefore, the multi-agent-based water resource management simulation method of the present application can more accurately characterize the agricultural irrigation water use decision process, more realistically simulate the influence of water resource management, and help adjust the allocation of water resources. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0042] The scheme of the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments, in which:

[0043] Figure 1 is a flow chart of a multi-agent-based water resources management simulation method provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0044] Figure 2 It is a flow chart of the simulation output of irrigation water use decision by an agricultural irrigation subject provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0045] It should be noted that, in the absence of conflict, the embodiments and features in the embodiments of the present application can be combined with each other. Now, in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, the preferred embodiments of the present invention are described in detail.

[0046] The embodiment of the present invention provides a multi-agent based water resource management simulation method for simulating water use management of water resources in river basins.

[0047] like Figure 1 As shown in the figure, the multi-agent based water resources management simulation method includes:

[0048] S110, obtaining different data sources corresponding to the river basin, including historical water resources survey data and meteorological data;

[0049] S120. Construct a water resource management model, create a water resource management subject, multiple agricultural irrigation subjects, a natural sub-model and a social sub-model in the water resource management model, and establish social connections between multiple agricultural irrigation subjects. The water resource management subject is used to simulate water resource management decisions and their impacts, the agricultural irrigation subject is used to simulate output irrigation water use decisions, and the social sub-model is used to provide a common pond game framework;

[0050] S130. The water resource management model obtains data sources. The natural sub-model estimates the output crop water demand driven by meteorological data. The agricultural irrigation entity simulates the output irrigation water use decision based on historical water resource survey data, crop water demand and water resource management decisions under the common pond game framework. The water resource management entity simulates water resource management decisions and their impacts under the common pond game framework.

[0051] The present application constructs a water resource management model, creates a water resource management subject, multiple agricultural irrigation subjects, a natural sub-model and a social sub-model in the water resource management model, and establishes connections between multiple agricultural irrigation subjects. The agricultural irrigation subject can make water resource management decisions based on the historical water resource survey data obtained, the crop water demand output by the natural sub-model, and the water resource management subject's simulated output, and simulates and outputs irrigation water use decisions under the common pond game framework of the social sub-model. It integrates natural factors and social factors and the mutual influence between the two, and introduces a common pond game framework. During the game process, different subjects will simulate and output the final irrigation water use decision and water resource management decision, and the impact of water resource management decisions. Therefore, the multi-subject-based water resource management simulation method of the present application can more accurately characterize the agricultural irrigation water use decision-making process, more realistically simulate the impact of water resource management, and help adjust the allocation of water resources.

[0052] In a specific implementation scenario, when a large-scale water conservancy project is implemented or the basin management policy changes, the water supply, irrigation cost, water price, etc. in the basin may change, which directly affects the water use selection and decision-making of agricultural irrigation subjects. Agricultural irrigation subjects adjust their water use strategies to adapt to the new situation, and the water use of agricultural irrigation subjects is not only constrained by the water resources management subject, but also by the complex influence between other agricultural irrigation subjects and the social, economic and natural environment in which they are located. Therefore, the water resources management model constructed in the multi-agent water resources management simulation method of this application includes a water resources management subject, multiple agricultural irrigation subjects, a natural sub-model and a social sub-model, which integrates natural factors and social factors and the mutual influence between the two, and introduces a common pond game framework to simulate the irrigation water use decision of agricultural irrigation subjects under the constraints of water resources management subjects, the complex influence between society, economy and natural environment, and more accurately portray water use decisions. After the water resources management subject adjusts the management strategy, the irrigation water use decision-making process of the agricultural irrigation subject can be directly simulated and output, and the irrigation water use decision of the agricultural irrigation subject under different management strategies can be obtained and compared through this method, thereby assisting the actual water resources management.

[0053] Among them, agricultural irrigation entities simulate the planting of crops on specific plots of land, and based on historical water resources survey data, crop water requirements and water resources management decisions, simulate and output irrigation water use decisions under the framework of a common pond game to ensure crop output and maximize their own economic and social benefits.

[0054] Water resource management entities simulate water resource management decisions and their impacts under the framework of the common pond game. Water resource management decisions include simulating the formulation and implementation of water resource management and crop subsidy policies under the water resource allocation system, allocating limited surface water resources, water prices, etc. The impact of water resource management decisions can be specifically the water fee income that water resource management entities can obtain after adjusting the allocated surface water volume, water price and other parameters. The core of water resource management is to try to encourage agricultural irrigation entities in the jurisdiction to follow institutional arrangements while ensuring or increasing agricultural output in the jurisdiction.

[0055] In this embodiment, before creating the agricultural irrigation subject, the water resource management model will load the existing soil type and irrigation range data. The irrigation range data is obtained specifically as follows:

[0056] Get the latest irrigation coverage data for the previous year;

[0057] The obtained irrigation area data were resampled to the same resolution using the pixel number addition method in the geospatial data software;

[0058] The resampled irrigation range data is output as the probability distribution basis for randomly generating agricultural irrigation entities in the water resources management model. It is used to determine the spatial distribution of agricultural irrigation entities and create agricultural irrigation entities within the effective irrigation range.

[0059] In this embodiment, the irrigation water use decision simulated and output by the agricultural irrigation subject includes simulated output of underground water withdrawal, surface water withdrawal and water withdrawal exceeding the quota. The surface water withdrawal is the water withdrawal specified by the water resource allocation system. In the water resource management model of the embodiment of the present application, the agricultural irrigation subject also simulates and outputs the water withdrawal exceeding the quota on the basis of outputting underground water withdrawal and surface water withdrawal, reflecting the reaction and strategy adjustment of the agricultural irrigation subject in special scenarios such as water resource management decision-making changes, and more realistically depicts the decision-making situation of actual agricultural water use, which can help the water resource management subject to monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of the current water resource allocation policy and management strategy, understand the imbalance between demand patterns and resource utilization, and help improve and adjust the existing water resource management policies, such as increasing water supply, adjusting the quota system or improving irrigation efficiency, adjusting water prices, and implementing water-saving measures.

[0060] In an optional embodiment of the present application, the natural sub-model is also used to output effective precipitation driven by meteorological data. Figure 2 The agricultural irrigation subject simulates and outputs irrigation water use decisions based on historical water resources survey data, crop water requirements, and water resources management decisions under the framework of the common pond game, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0061] S210, calculating agricultural water consumption and crop water requirements in the corresponding historical period based on historical water resources survey data;

[0062] S220, obtain irrigation efficiency based on agricultural water consumption and crop water demand in the corresponding historical period;

[0063] S230. Agricultural irrigation entities shall output underground water withdrawal, surface water withdrawal and water withdrawal exceeding the quota based on crop water demand, irrigation efficiency, effective precipitation and water resource quota stipulated in the water resource policy;

[0064] S240. Agricultural irrigation entities use genetic algorithms to optimize the output of final water withdrawal, surface water withdrawal, and water withdrawal exceeding water resource quota under the framework of common pond game.

[0065] The process of outputting crop water requirements and effective precipitation by the natural sub-model driven by meteorological data is as follows:

[0066] Input China regional surface meteorological element driven dataset (3 hours time resolution, 0.10 degree spatial resolution), including 2 Temperature, surface pressure, specific humidity, 10 Wind speed, downward shortwave radiation from the surface, downward longwave radiation from the surface, and precipitation rate. The unit of temperature is , the unit of surface pressure is , the unit of specific humidity is , the unit of wind speed is , the unit of downward shortwave radiation from the surface is , the unit of downward longwave radiation from the surface is , the unit of precipitation rate is ;

[0067] Calculate net radiation, 2 using Python libraries for atmospheric and meteorological data analysis Wind speed and relative humidity;

[0068] The reference evapotranspiration was calculated using the pyet library and the FAO56 Penman-Monteith formula;

[0069] Use xarray to get the maximum / minimum value of the 3-hour resolution temperature data on a daily scale. xarray is an open source Python library.

[0070] Use pint-xarray to convert precipitation rate data into daily precipitation. pint-xarray is a Python library that combines the functions of pint (for unit processing) and xarray (for multidimensional labeled array processing) when processing and analyzing data.

[0071] Output for water resource management models at the daily scale (1 ), 0.10 degree spatial resolution climate variables, including 2 Maximum temperature, 2 Minimum temperature, daily precipitation, and reference evapotranspiration are used as climate driving data for the natural sub-model to simulate crop growth and irrigation water requirements.

[0072] Based on historical water resources survey data, the agricultural water consumption and the crop water demand in the corresponding historical period are calculated to obtain the irrigation efficiency, which provides a more realistic irrigation efficiency and makes the simulated output irrigation water use decision closer to the actual situation.

[0073] Specifically, agricultural water consumption is calculated based on historical water resources survey data using the following formula:

[0074] (1)

[0075] In formula (1), Represents processed Save water resources for irrigating food crops. represent Save the total amount of water resources quota, and Respectively represent Total water consumption of the province and prefecture-level cities belonging to the province Agricultural water use data It is calculated based on the irrigation area and water intensity per unit irrigation area in historical water resources survey data.

[0076] The irrigation area can be calculated by the following formula based on the proportion of irrigation area in the water resources survey data:

[0077] (2)

[0078] In formula (2), Represents data after processing Number of villages in the province, Represents statistical data records Total number of villages in the province, and Respectively represent Total irrigated area of ​​the province and prefecture-level cities belonging to the province Therefore, the irrigation area can be calculated by the number of villages, and then the agricultural water consumption can be calculated by the irrigation area and the water intensity per unit irrigation area.

[0079] After agricultural irrigation entities output underground water withdrawal, surface water withdrawal and water withdrawal in excess of the quota based on crop water demand, irrigation efficiency, effective precipitation and water resource quotas stipulated in water resource policies, they continuously optimize and update irrigation water use decisions through genetic algorithms under the framework of the common pond game, so as to ensure crop output while maximizing their own economic and social benefits.

[0080] Among them, genetic algorithm is a heuristic search algorithm used to solve optimization and search problems, and generates the optimal solution by simulating the process of natural selection (such as inheritance, mutation, selection and crossover). Through genetic algorithms, agricultural irrigation entities can continuously optimize irrigation water decisions, and agricultural irrigation entities can output irrigation water decisions with optimal economic and social benefits, more comprehensively and accurately predict the irrigation water decision-making behavior of agricultural irrigation entities under different conditions, more accurately describe agricultural water use, and provide effective suggestions for water resources management.

[0081] Furthermore, the agricultural irrigation subject calculates the output of underground water withdrawal, surface water withdrawal and water withdrawal exceeding the water resource quota based on the crop water demand, irrigation efficiency, effective precipitation and water resource quota specified in the water resource policy output by the natural sub-model through the following formula:

[0082] (3)

[0083] In formula (3), The effective irrigation range is within the grid The water requirement of crops, The effective irrigation range is within the grid The effective precipitation The effective irrigation range is within the grid of irrigation water, is the amount of groundwater withdrawal, is the surface water withdrawal, For water withdrawal exceeding the water resource quota, For irrigation efficiency.

[0084] For a certain grid within the effective irrigation range Irrigation subject For agricultural production, the core of its decision is to ensure the output of crops and maximize its economic and social benefits. The key to crop output is to meet the water needs of crops, that is, to irrigate water when natural precipitation cannot meet the water needs of crops. The total irrigation water volume can be obtained by the water demand of crops and the effective precipitation. , as well as When the irrigation water volume is given, the allocation is determined by the agricultural irrigation entity.

[0085] For a given water resources management entity in the jurisdiction For (corresponding spatial range is The core of its decision-making is to encourage agricultural irrigation entities within its jurisdiction to follow the institutional arrangements while ensuring or improving agricultural output within its jurisdiction. Its jurisdiction may include Irrigation entities located in different grids with different irrigation needs:

[0086] (4)

[0087] In formula (4), It is the main body of water resources management. The total irrigation water demand proposed by the irrigation entities in the jurisdiction is usually impossible to be fully met in river basins with very limited water resources. Or plan water quotas Therefore, water resource management entities simulate water resource management decisions under the common pond game framework, including simulating the allocation of surface water. Specifically, under a given water resource management system, a certain amount of river surface water is allocated to Allocate to the agricultural irrigation entities under its jurisdiction :

[0088] (5)

[0089] In formulas (4) and (5), The total amount of surface water allocated by the water resources management entity to multiple agricultural irrigation entities, The surface water withdrawal amount planned to be allocated to agricultural irrigation entities, The amount of water taken that exceeds the water resource quota.

[0090] Among them, the water resource management subject simulates water resource management decisions and the impact of water resource management decisions under the framework of the common pond game. Based on the geographical location of the water resource management subject, the benefits of the agricultural irrigation subject are aggregated, and the water resource management decision and the impact of water resource management decisions are simulated according to the benefits of the agricultural irrigation subject, the water demand proposed by the agricultural irrigation subject, the allocated surface water volume, and the water resource system. For example, the allocation quota of surface water volume, water price and other decisions are simulated, as well as the water fee income that the water resource management subject can obtain under the decision made. The amount of surface water allocated by the water resource management subject to the agricultural irrigation subject under its jurisdiction can be determined according to actual simulation scenarios such as surface water resource quota adjustment and groundwater resource quota adjustment.

[0091] In this embodiment, the natural sub-model calculates the crop water requirement by the following formula:

[0092] (6)

[0093] In formula (6), For a specific time The water requirement of crops in For a specific time The reference evapotranspiration within For a specific time The crop evapotranspiration coefficient within is the stress coefficient that depends on the available soil water. Specifically, the reference evapotranspiration ( ).

[0094] For grid Agricultural irrigation entities , if the effective precipitation is greater than the crop water requirement (i.e. ), no additional water is needed. Otherwise, the amount of water needed to be taken from the surface , On this basis, groundwater is used to meet the part that is still insufficient for irrigation to ensure the survival of crops.

[0095] The natural sub-model calculates the effective precipitation using the following formula:

[0096] (7)

[0097] In formula (7), For a specific time The effective precipitation in For a specific time For example, if ten days is a specific period of time, then and They are respectively the precipitation within ten days and the effective precipitation, and the unit is millimeter.

[0098] Crop evapotranspiration is calculated using the single crop coefficient method using the following formula:

[0099] (8)

[0100] In formula (8), The effective irrigation range is within the grid of crop evapotranspiration, The effective irrigation range is within the grid is the precipitation, The effective irrigation range is within the grid The temperature, The effective irrigation range is within the grid The wind speed, The effective irrigation range is within the grid The reference evapotranspiration, The effective irrigation range is within the grid of irrigation water, The effective irrigation range is within the grid types of crops grown.

[0101] The above-mentioned method of calculating crop evapotranspiration using formula (8) has been widely used. The specific formula is relatively complicated and will not be described in detail here.

[0102] In this embodiment, the public pond game framework of the social sub-model calculates the game benefits of a single agricultural irrigation entity through the following formula:

[0103] (9)

[0104] In formula (9), is the game benefit of a single agricultural irrigation entity, is the cost contributed by a single agricultural irrigation entity to the collective, For agricultural irrigation The strategy variables, is the public revenue coefficient, is the number of agricultural irrigation entities, for The overall benefits of each agricultural irrigation entity;

[0105] Among them, agricultural irrigation entities with social connections learn better strategies according to their different game benefits. The decision-making influence of a single agricultural irrigation entity is represented by the following formula:

[0106] (10)

[0107] In formula (10), For agricultural irrigation At time step decision, For agricultural irrigation At time step The gaming income, For agricultural irrigation At time step Gaming benefits, agricultural irrigation entities Agricultural irrigation Any two agricultural irrigation entities that have social connections with each other.

[0108] Water resources are competitive and exclusive public resources. By adopting the public pond resource game to simulate the decision-making process of agricultural irrigation entities facing institutional constraints, the interaction of different irrigation entities in the use of public water resources can be effectively simulated, reflecting the actual water use situation, which is conducive to the effective management of water resources.

[0109] Specifically, consider the following: If the subject participates in resource allocation, The public system represents cooperation, then the strategy variable is ,otherwise The benefits of the entire group will vary depending on the number of entities that pay the cost. The coefficient of production is Agricultural irrigation entities will learn better strategies due to different game benefits. Therefore, the decision-making game of a single agricultural irrigation subject will change with the time of the water resources management model. Evolution occurs, for any two related entities , , each person in the next time step Decision will be affected by the previous time step Higher scorers Decision The impact is represented by the above formula (10). In the common pond game framework, economic costs and social costs affect the profit scores of individual agricultural irrigation entities in the game framework.

[0110] When an irrigation subject Choose a cooperation strategy ( ) because surface water and groundwater The price difference will affect the total agricultural income Based on whether the difference in water use from surface water to groundwater increases irrigation costs, the economic cost of following the system is calculated using the following formula:

[0111] (11)

[0112] In formula (11), is the economic cost of a single agricultural irrigation entity, is the total agricultural income of a single agricultural irrigation entity, The irrigation cost is the difference in water use from surface water to groundwater. is the surface water price, is the groundwater price.

[0113] If a single agricultural irrigation entity violates the system, there will be social costs due to social norms. The social costs are calculated by the following formula:

[0114] (12)

[0115] In formula (12), is the social cost of a single agricultural irrigation entity, and These are social norm parameters that can be measured using questionnaires in research. The number of times a single agricultural irrigation entity discovered that others were using water in violation of regulations. is the number of times a single agricultural irrigation entity is found to have violated water use regulations by other agricultural irrigation entities. The above formula (12) is expressed using the Cobb-Douglas function (Cobb-Douglas production function).

[0116] The cost of a single agricultural irrigation entity's contribution to the collective is the equally weighted average of the social cost and economic cost of the single agricultural irrigation entity. The equally weighted average of the economic cost and social cost is calculated as the cost of a single agricultural irrigation entity's contribution to the collective and is brought into the evolutionary game framework shown in the above formula (9).

[0117] In this embodiment, the multi-agent based water resources management simulation method further includes the following steps:

[0118] The output of the water resources management model under the historical baseline scenario is verified using river basin crop water footprint data and surface water quota implementation data.

[0119] The data on crop water footprint in river basins and the implementation of surface water quotas are the actual situations of water resource management decisions and irrigation water use decisions in history. These data are used to verify the output of the water resource management model under the historical baseline scenario, helping to evaluate whether the constructed water resource management model can accurately reflect the actual water resource usage and the effectiveness of management strategies, thereby verifying the water resource management model so that it can reflect the historical changes in crop water footprint and successfully predict the provinces with quotas for surface water use.

[0120] Through the verified water resource management model, the parameters in the water resource management model, such as water resource quotas, water prices, etc., can be adjusted to simulate different water resource management scenarios and irrigation water use decisions under different water resource management decisions, helping water resource management entities to evaluate the effects of different water resource management decisions, and helping to propose suggestions for optimizing the prediction of water resource management in different river basins. It can be analyzed from the perspectives of current agricultural irrigation water consumption, grain output, irrigation water efficiency, irrigation water demand, etc., and then analyzed from the perspectives of irrigation water adjustment of agricultural irrigation entities and updating of irrigation water use strategies.

[0121] The technical features of the above embodiments may be combined arbitrarily. To make the description concise, not all possible combinations of the technical features in the above embodiments are described. However, as long as there is no contradiction in the combination of these technical features, they should be considered to be within the scope of this specification.

[0122] It should be understood that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention rather than to limit it. For those skilled in the art, the technical solutions described in the above embodiments can be modified, or some of the technical features therein can be replaced by equivalents; and all these modifications and replacements should fall within the protection scope of the claims attached to the present invention.

Claims

1. A multi-agent based water resources management simulation method for simulating water use management of river basin water resources, characterized in that: include: Obtain different data sources for the corresponding river basins, including historical water resources survey data and meteorological data; Constructing a water resource management model, creating a water resource management subject, multiple agricultural irrigation subjects, a natural sub-model and a social sub-model in the water resource management model, and establishing social connections between multiple agricultural irrigation subjects, wherein the water resource management subject is used to simulate water resource management decisions and their impacts, the agricultural irrigation subject is used to simulate output irrigation water use decisions, and the social sub-model is used to provide a common pond game framework; The water resource management model obtains the data source, the natural sub-model estimates and outputs the crop water requirement driven by the meteorological data, the agricultural irrigation subject simulates and outputs the irrigation water use decision based on the historical water resource survey data, the crop water requirement and the water resource management decision under the common pond game framework, and the water resource management subject simulates the water resource management decision and its impact under the common pond game framework; The irrigation water use decision simulated output by the agricultural irrigation subject includes simulated output of underground water intake, surface water intake and water intake exceeding the quota; The public pond game framework of the social sub-model calculates the game benefits of a single agricultural irrigation entity through the following formula: In the formula is the game benefit of a single agricultural irrigation entity, is the cost contributed by a single agricultural irrigation entity to the collective, For agricultural irrigation The strategy variables, is the public revenue coefficient, is the number of agricultural irrigation entities, for The overall benefits of each agricultural irrigation entity; Among them, agricultural irrigation entities with social connections learn better strategies according to their different game benefits. The decision-making influence of a single agricultural irrigation entity is represented by the following formula: In the formula, For agricultural irrigation At time step decision, For agricultural irrigation At time step The gaming income, For agricultural irrigation At time step Gaming benefits, agricultural irrigation entities Agricultural irrigation entities Any two agricultural irrigation entities that have social connections with each other; The cost of the individual agricultural irrigation subject's contribution to the collective is the equally weighted average of the social cost and economic cost of the individual agricultural irrigation subject. The social cost is calculated by the following formula: The economic cost is calculated by the following formula: In the formula, is the social cost of a single agricultural irrigation entity, and These are social norm parameters that can be measured using questionnaires in research. The number of times a single agricultural irrigation entity discovered that others were using water in violation of regulations. The number of times a single agricultural irrigation entity was found to have used water in violation of regulations by other agricultural irrigation entities. is the economic cost of a single agricultural irrigation entity, is the total agricultural income of a single agricultural irrigation entity, The irrigation cost is the difference in water use from surface water to groundwater. is the surface water price, is the groundwater price; The water resource management subject simulates water resource management decisions under the common pond game framework, including simulating the allocation of surface water to agricultural irrigation subjects.

2. The multi-agent based water resources management simulation method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The natural sub-model is also used to output effective precipitation driven by meteorological data. The agricultural irrigation subject simulates and outputs irrigation water use decisions based on the historical water resources survey data, crop water requirements and water resources management decisions under the common pond game framework, specifically including the following steps: Calculate agricultural water consumption and crop water requirements for the corresponding historical period based on the historical water resources survey data; Obtaining irrigation efficiency based on the agricultural water consumption and the crop water demand in the corresponding historical period; Agricultural irrigation entities output underground water withdrawal, surface water withdrawal and water withdrawal exceeding the quota based on the water demand of the crops, irrigation efficiency, effective precipitation and water resource quota stipulated in the water resource policy; Agricultural irrigation entities use genetic algorithms to optimize the output of the final underground water withdrawal, surface water withdrawal, and water withdrawal exceeding the water resource quota under the framework of the common pond game.

3. The multi-agent based water resources management simulation method according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The agricultural irrigation subject calculates and outputs underground water withdrawal, surface water withdrawal and water withdrawal exceeding the water resource quota based on the crop water demand, irrigation efficiency, effective precipitation and water resource quota specified in the water resource policy output by the natural sub-model through the following formula: In the formula, The effective irrigation range is within the grid The crop water requirement, The effective irrigation range is within the grid The effective precipitation The effective irrigation range is within the grid of irrigation water, is the amount of groundwater withdrawal, is the surface water withdrawal, For water withdrawal exceeding the water resource quota, For irrigation efficiency.

4. The multi-agent based water resources management simulation method according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The natural sub-model calculates the crop water requirement by the following formula: In the formula, For a specific time The water requirement of crops in For a specific time The reference evapotranspiration within For a specific time The crop evapotranspiration coefficient within is the stress coefficient that depends on the available soil moisture.

5. The multi-agent based water resources management simulation method according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The natural sub-model calculates the effective precipitation through the following formula: In the formula, For a specific time The effective precipitation in For a specific time The amount of precipitation within.

6. The multi-agent based water resources management simulation method according to claim 4 is characterized in that: Crop evapotranspiration is calculated using the single crop coefficient method using the following formula: In the formula, The effective irrigation range is within the grid of crop evapotranspiration, The effective irrigation range is within the grid is the precipitation, The effective irrigation range is within the grid The temperature, The effective irrigation range is within the grid The wind speed, The effective irrigation range is within the grid The reference evapotranspiration, The effective irrigation range is within the grid of irrigation water, The effective irrigation range is within the grid types of crops grown.

7. The multi-agent based water resources management simulation method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The amount of surface water allocated is calculated by the following formula: In the formula, The total amount of surface water allocated by the water resources management entity to multiple agricultural irrigation entities, The surface water withdrawal amount planned to be allocated to agricultural irrigation entities, The amount of water taken that exceeds the water resource quota.

Images