A dynamic assessment method for railway construction safety risk based on event coupling

Abstract

The present invention relates to the technical field of construction risk assessment, and discloses a method for dynamic assessment of railway construction safety risk based on event coupling, comprising the following steps: obtaining a set of safety risk events, and constructing a visualized safety risk event association network through the set of safety risk events; calculating the probability value and the loss degree value of the safety risk event, and calculating the event risk value according to the level corresponding to the probability value and the level corresponding to the loss degree value; obtaining a risk event triggering effect matrix through the degree of association between multiple safety risk events in the safety risk event association network, and calculating the impact weight of the safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project; calculating the coupling risk value of the safety risk event set through the event risk value and the impact weight of the safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project. The present invention quantifies the assessment of the overall safety risk of the railway construction project by formulating the level corresponding to the coupling risk value.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to the technical field of construction risk assessment, and in particular to a railway construction safety risk dynamic assessment method based on event coupling. Background Art

[0002] During the railway construction process, due to the influence of factors such as the large number of construction equipment, long construction period, and uncertainty of the construction environment, there are many potential safety risk events, which can easily lead to safety accidents, affect the progress of the construction period, cause economic losses and casualties, and thus have a negative impact on society. It is necessary to conduct timely assessment and control of the safety risks at the construction site to reduce the possibility of major safety accidents.

[0003] In the existing technology, safety risk events are often regarded as independent factors for risk assessment. However, railway construction is a complex risk system, and there is a certain correlation between safety risk events. A single safety risk event may trigger other safety risk events, thereby causing a chain effect with multiple safety risk events. This chain effect often increases the speed of risk diffusion and aggravates the losses caused by safety risk accidents.

[0004] In view of this, the existing technology still needs to be improved and developed. Summary of the invention

[0005] In view of the above-mentioned deficiencies in the prior art, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a dynamic assessment method for railway construction safety risks based on event coupling, aiming to perform coupling assessment on an event association network formed by multiple related safety risk events.

[0006] The technical solution adopted by the present invention to solve the technical problem is as follows:

[0007] A railway construction safety risk dynamic assessment method based on event coupling, the railway construction safety risk dynamic assessment method comprising:

[0008] Acquire a security risk event set, and construct a visual security risk event association network through the security risk event set;

[0009] By calculating the probability value and loss degree value of the occurrence of a security risk event, obtaining a level corresponding to the probability value based on the probability value of the occurrence of the security risk event, obtaining a level corresponding to the loss degree value based on the loss degree value of the occurrence of the security risk event, and calculating the event risk value according to the level corresponding to the probability value and the level corresponding to the loss degree value;

[0010] The risk event trigger effect matrix is ​​obtained by the correlation degree between multiple safety risk events in the safety risk event correlation network, and the impact weight of the safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project is calculated according to the risk event trigger effect matrix;

[0011] The coupling risk value of the safety risk event set is calculated by using the event risk value and the impact weight of the safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project.

[0012] Preferably, obtaining the security risk event set specifically includes:

[0013] A plurality of safety risk events are identified and extracted from historical data of railway construction safety accident reports and combined into the safety risk event set.

[0014] Preferably, the function expression of the probability value of the occurrence of the security risk event is:

[0015] ;

[0016] in, Safety risk events in railway construction projects The probability of occurrence, is the construction scale coefficient of the railway construction project, Safety risk events in railway construction projects The disadvantage coefficient, For security risk events The control coefficient, For security risk events The weight of all safety risk events in railway construction projects, Safety risk events in historical data of railway construction safety accident reports The number of occurrences, The number of all safety risk events that occurred in the historical data reported for railway construction safety accidents; is the label of the security risk event, which ranges from 1 to The natural number of It is the total number of security risk events in the security risk event set.

[0017] Preferably, the function expression of the loss degree value of the safety risk event is:

[0018] ;

[0019] in, For security risk events The extent of the loss incurred, For security risk events No. The value of the loss degree evaluation index of each safety risk event, is the index number of the safety risk event loss degree evaluation index, and its value ranges from 1 to The natural number of It is the total number of indicators for evaluating the degree of loss of safety risk events.

[0020] Preferably, the function expression of the event risk value is:

[0021] ;

[0022] in, Safety risk events in railway construction projects The risk value, Safety risk events in railway construction projects The probability level of occurrence, Safety risk events in railway construction projects The degree of loss incurred.

[0023] Preferably, the risk event triggering effect matrix is ​​obtained by the correlation degree between multiple security risk events in the security risk event correlation network, specifically including:

[0024] ①, Associate the security risk events with the security risk events in the network Safety risk events The impact values ​​of the triggering effects are assigned and arranged in descending order, according to the safety risk events exist Security risk events under different risk levels The trigger effect size is assigned the impact value of the trigger effect, and the assigned The values ​​are arranged in descending order, from large to small. , and calculate the weights of the assigned values, the weights of the impact values ​​of the assigned trigger effects The function expression is:

[0025] ;

[0026] in: Arrange in descending order from largest to smallest Security risk events Safety risk events The weight of the impact value of the trigger effect; is the combination number formula, ; ;

[0027] ②, the weight of the impact value of the trigger effect on the safety risk event exist Risk events under different risk levels The impact value of the triggering effect is weighted to obtain the safety risk event Safety risk events The result of the impact value of the trigger effect, the result of the impact value of the trigger effect The function expression is:

[0028] ;

[0029] in: For security risk events Safety risk events The result of the impact value of the triggering effect;

[0030] ③. The event risk value of a security risk event Arranged on a diagonal line of the risk event trigger effect matrix, the results of the impact values ​​of the trigger effects between multiple groups of two security risk events in the security risk event association network are arranged in the remaining positions of the risk event trigger effect matrix to form a The risk event trigger effect matrix, the risk event trigger effect matrix for:

[0031] ;

[0032] in: For security risk events Safety risk events The impact value of the trigger effect; For security risk events Safety risk events The impact value of the triggered effect.

[0033] Preferably, the impact weight of the safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project is calculated according to the risk event trigger effect matrix, including:

[0034] The functional expression of the impact weight of the safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project is:

[0035] ;

[0036] in: For security risk events The weight of impact on the overall safety risk of the project, For security risk events The sum of the impact values ​​of the triggering effects on other safety risk events, For security risk events The sum of the impact values ​​of the triggering effects of other safety risk events, For security risk events Safety risk events The impact value of the triggered effect.

[0037] Preferably, calculating the impact weight of the safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project according to the risk event trigger effect matrix also includes:

[0038] Security risk events The sum of the impact values ​​of the triggering effects on other safety risk events The function expression is: , ;

[0039] Security risk events The sum of the impact values ​​of the triggering effects of other safety risk events The function expression is: , .

[0040] Preferably, the coupling risk value of the security risk event set is The function expression is:

[0041] .

[0042] Preferably, the visualized security risk event association network is specifically:

[0043] Safety risk events in railway construction on bridge environments include: collapse, overturning, drowning, structural damage, falling from height, lifting injuries, object strikes, mechanical injuries, vehicle injuries, electric shock injuries, poisoning and suffocation, and fire and explosion;

[0044] Or the safety risk events that exist in railway construction in tunnel environment include: landslide, rock burst, high ground temperature, large deformation, sudden water and mud, gas and harmful gases, fire and explosion, mechanical injury, object impact, electric shock, falling from height and poisoning and suffocation.

[0045] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0046] The present application provides a method for dynamic assessment of railway construction safety risk based on event coupling, comprising the following steps: obtaining a set of safety risk events, and constructing a visual safety risk event association network through the safety risk event set; by calculating the probability value and loss degree value of the safety risk event, obtaining the level corresponding to the probability value based on the probability value of the safety risk event, obtaining the level corresponding to the loss degree value based on the loss degree value of the safety risk event, and calculating the event risk value according to the level corresponding to the probability value and the level corresponding to the loss degree value; obtaining the risk event trigger effect matrix through the degree of correlation between multiple safety risk events in the safety risk event association network, and calculating the impact weight of the safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project according to the risk event trigger effect matrix; calculating the coupling risk value of the safety risk event set through the event risk value and the impact weight of the safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project. The present application obtains the level corresponding to the coupling risk value based on the coupling risk value of the safety risk event set, and quantifies the assessment of the overall safety risk of railway construction projects, which is conducive to managers to grasp the on-site safety risk situation, coordinate and allocate resources, and improve the level of risk management. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0047] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on the structures shown in these drawings without paying creative work.

[0048] Figure 1 A flowchart of the railway construction safety risk dynamic assessment method based on event coupling provided by the present invention;

[0049] Figure 2 A network diagram of safety risk events associated with railway construction on a bridge environment;

[0050] Figure 3 This is a network diagram for the safety risk events associated with the railway construction on the bridge environment in the example;

[0051] Figure 4 A network diagram of safety risk events associated with railway construction in a tunnel environment;

[0052] Figure 5 This is a network diagram of safety risk events associated with railway construction in a tunnel environment in the example;

[0053] Figure 6 This is a functional schematic diagram of the railway construction safety risk dynamic assessment device based on event coupling provided by the present invention.

[0054] The realization of the purpose, functional features and advantages of the present invention will be further explained in conjunction with embodiments and with reference to the accompanying drawings. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0055] The present application provides a method, device and storage medium for dynamic assessment of railway construction safety risks based on event coupling. In order to make the purpose, technical solution and effect of the present application clearer and more specific, the present application is further described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present application and are not used to limit the present application.

[0056] It will be understood by those skilled in the art that, unless expressly stated, the singular forms "one", "said", and "the" used herein may also include plural forms. It should be further understood that the term "comprising" used in the specification of the present application refers to the presence of the features, integers, steps, operations, elements and / or components, but does not exclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, integers, steps, operations, elements, components and / or groups thereof. It should be understood that when we refer to an element as being "connected" or "coupled" to another element, it may be directly connected or coupled to the other element, or there may be an intermediate element. In addition, the "connection" or "coupling" used herein may include wireless connection or wireless coupling. The term "and / or" used herein includes all or any unit and all combinations of one or more associated listed items.

[0057] It will be understood by those skilled in the art that, unless otherwise defined, all terms (including technical and scientific terms) used herein have the same meaning as those generally understood by those skilled in the art to which this application belongs. It should also be understood that terms such as those defined in general dictionaries should be understood to have meanings consistent with the meanings in the context of the prior art, and will not be interpreted with idealized or overly formal meanings unless specifically defined as here.

[0058] Exemplary Methods

[0059] In the existing technology, safety risk events in railway construction projects are usually only considered as independent factors for risk assessment. However, as railway construction is a complex risk system, this assessment method has great limitations. Because multiple safety risk events are related, a single safety risk event may cause other safety risk events, thereby triggering a chain effect between multiple safety risk events and aggravating the losses caused by risk accidents.

[0060] In response to the technical problems existing in the prior art, this embodiment provides a dynamic assessment method for railway construction safety risks based on event coupling. By calculating the coupling risk value of the safety risk event set, the level corresponding to the coupling risk value is formulated, and the overall safety risk assessment of the railway construction project is quantified. Management personnel can coordinate the allocation of resources according to the level corresponding to the coupling risk value.

[0061] like Figure 1 As shown, Figure 1 The flowchart of the railway construction safety risk dynamic assessment method based on event coupling is shown in FIG. Specifically, this embodiment provides a railway construction safety risk dynamic assessment method based on event coupling, and the railway construction safety risk dynamic assessment method includes the following steps:

[0062] Step S100: Acquire a security risk event set, and construct a visualized security risk event association network through the security risk event set.

[0063] It should be noted that in the construction of railway projects, the correlation between multiple safety risk events can be understood as a directional triggering effect between multiple safety risk events. In other words, the occurrence of a safety risk event may trigger the occurrence of other safety risk events, and a single safety risk event evolves into an accident chain, which in turn constitutes a safety risk event correlation network.

[0064] The Apriori algorithm (association rule mining algorithm) is used to calculate the correlation between multiple security risk events, and the adjacency matrix of the network relationship is established. The adjacency matrix is ​​input into the network analysis integration software UCINET, and finally the visualization software NetDraw is used to realize the visualization of the security risk event association network.

[0065] Before implementing step S100, it is necessary to construct a security risk event set, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0066] A plurality of safety risk events are identified and extracted from historical data of railway construction safety accident reports and combined into the safety risk event set.

[0067] Specifically, historical data of railway construction safety accident reports reported by various cities on the Internet are collected through crawler technology as original information of the case library, and multiple safety risk events are identified and extracted from the original information of the case library to form the safety risk event set.

[0068] Step S200: By calculating the probability value and loss degree value of the security risk event, the level corresponding to the probability value is obtained based on the probability value of the security risk event, and the level corresponding to the loss degree value is obtained based on the loss degree value of the security risk event, and the event risk value is calculated according to the level corresponding to the probability value and the level corresponding to the loss degree value. The details are as follows:

[0069] By collecting historical data on railway construction safety accident reports, the historical probability of safety risk events occurring is calculated, and then corrections are made based on the engineering characteristics of the railway construction project and the on-site management and control conditions, thereby calculating the probability value of the safety risk event occurring.

[0070] The function expression of the probability value of the occurrence of the security risk event is:

[0071] ;

[0072] in, Safety risk events in railway construction projects The probability of occurrence; is the construction scale coefficient of the railway construction project, with a value of 0.8-1.2. The project scale is proportional to the construction scale coefficient value of the project; Safety risk events in railway construction projects The unfavorable coefficient is 0.8-1.2, which is based on the geological conditions, climatic conditions and construction methods of the railway construction project to determine the safety risk events. The induced impact is proportional to the value of the unfavorable coefficient of the engineering construction; For security risk events The control coefficient is 0-1, which is based on the safety risk events at the construction site. The control level of construction sites is Control level and safety risk events The control coefficient is inversely proportional to the value of; For security risk events The weight of all safety risk events in railway construction projects is based on the risk losses caused by historical safety risk events. The greater the average risk loss, the greater the weight, and the smaller the average risk loss, the smaller the weight; Safety risk events in historical data of railway construction safety accident reports The number of occurrences, The number of all safety risk events that occurred in the historical data reported for railway construction safety accidents; is the label of the security risk event, which ranges from 1 to The natural number of It is the total number of security risk events in the security risk event set.

[0073] The probability of safety risk events in railway construction projects is divided into five levels. Determine the level corresponding to the probability value , the level corresponding to the probability value The value selection criteria are shown in Table 1:

[0074] Table 1 Probability of safety risk events Determine the level corresponding to the probability value

[0075]

[0076] The loss level of the security risk event The function expression is:

[0077] ;

[0078] in: For security risk events The extent of the loss incurred, For security risk events No. The value of the loss degree evaluation index of each safety risk event, is the index number of the safety risk event loss degree evaluation index, and its value ranges from 1 to The natural number of It is the total number of indicators for evaluating the degree of loss of safety risk events.

[0079] The loss level of safety risk events is increased from casualties to , Economic losses , Construction delay 、Environmental impact And social impact Considering five dimensions, the value standards of the loss degree index of security risk events are shown in Table 2:

[0080] Table 2 Value criteria for loss level indicators of safety risk events

[0081]

[0082] Among them, F is the number of deaths; SI is the number of serious injuries; MI is the number of minor injuries.

[0083] In Table 2, the environmental impact and social impact Perform regular assignment. According to the loss degree value of the security risk event Determine the level C corresponding to the loss degree value. The value standard of level C corresponding to the loss degree value is shown in Table 3:

[0084] Table 3 C-level value standards corresponding to the loss degree values ​​of safety risk events

[0085]

[0086] The function expression of the event risk value is:

[0087] ;

[0088] in: Safety risk events in railway construction projects The risk value, Safety risk events in railway construction projects The probability level of occurrence, Safety risk events in railway construction projects The degree of loss incurred.

[0089] Step S300: Obtain a risk event trigger effect matrix through the correlation degree between multiple safety risk events in the safety risk event correlation network, and calculate the impact weight of the safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project according to the risk event trigger effect matrix. The details are as follows:

[0090] It should be noted that the trigger effect refers to the occurrence of a source security risk event leading to the occurrence of a sub-security risk event, and the transmission phenomenon between security risk events occurs. The size of the trigger effect is comprehensively evaluated through the two aspects of trigger probability and risk transfer efficiency. Among them, the trigger probability is the possibility of risk transmission from the source security risk event to the sub-security risk event, which is related to the closeness of the trigger relationship between the source security risk event and the sub-security risk event. The risk transfer efficiency is the size of the change in risk after the risk is transmitted from the source security risk event to the sub-security risk event, which is related to the strength of the correlation between the source security risk event and the sub-security risk event. In short, the trigger probability can be understood as a security risk event. The occurrence of safety risk events The probability of occurrence of the risk transfer efficiency can be understood as the probability of occurrence of the risk event. The occurrence of safety risk events Occurrence of security risk events Event risk value and security risk events Security risk events The degree of correlation is used to calculate the security risk events The event risk value.

[0091] The risk event triggering effect matrix is ​​obtained by the correlation degree between multiple security risk events in the security risk event correlation network, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0092] Step S301: assigning values ​​to the impact values ​​of the triggering effects between two security risk events in the security risk event association network and arranging them in descending order, and calculating the weights of the impact values ​​of the triggering effects.

[0093] Specifically, the COWA operator method is used to assign the impact values ​​of the triggering effects between multiple groups of two security risk events, and the impact values ​​of the triggering effects between multiple security risk events are obtained, and then they are arranged in descending order to obtain the impact values ​​of the triggering effects between the sorted multiple security risk events. Safety risk events The impact values ​​of the triggering effects are assigned and arranged in descending order, according to the safety risk events exist Security risk events under different risk levels The trigger effect size is assigned the impact value of the trigger effect, and the assigned The values ​​are arranged in descending order, from large to small. ,Right now The impact value level standards of the triggering effects between safety risk events are shown in Table 4:

[0094] Table 4 Impact value level standards for trigger effects between safety risk events

[0095]

[0096] The weight of the impact value of the trigger effect is determined by the number of combinations. The function expression is:

[0097] ;

[0098] in: Arrange in descending order from largest to smallest Security risk events Safety risk events The weight of the impact value of the trigger effect; is the formula for the number of combinations;

[0099] , in addition to the provisions .

[0100] Step S302: weighting the influence value of the trigger effect by the weight of the influence value of the trigger effect to obtain a result of the influence value of the trigger effect.

[0101] Specifically, the weight of the impact value of the trigger effect is used to evaluate the safety risk event. exist Risk events under different risk levels The impact value of the triggering effect is weighted to obtain the safety risk event Safety risk events The result of the impact value of the trigger effect is expressed as follows:

[0102] ;

[0103] in: For security risk events Safety risk events The result of the impact value of the triggering effect;

[0104] Step S303: The event risk value of a security risk event Arranged on a diagonal line of the risk event trigger effect matrix, according to the degree of association between multiple security risk events in the security risk event association network, the results of the impact values ​​of the trigger effects between multiple security risk events are arranged in the remaining positions of the risk event trigger effect matrix to form a The risk event trigger effect matrix, the risk event trigger effect matrix for:

[0105] ;

[0106] in: For security risk events Safety risk events The impact value of the trigger effect; For security risk events Safety risk events The impact value of the triggered effect.

[0107] It should be noted that in the risk event trigger effect matrix If there is no impact value of the trigger effect between two safety risk events, "0" is entered in the risk event trigger effect matrix.

[0108] The impact weight of the safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project is calculated according to the risk event trigger effect matrix, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0109] Specifically, considering security risk events The importance of the event depends not only on its own risk value, but also on the security risk event Impact on other security risk events and security risk events Affected by other security risk events. Own event risk value, security risk events Impact on other security risk events and security risk events Comprehensively consider the impact of other security risk events and evaluate security risk events The importance of railway construction.

[0110] The functional expression of the impact weight of the safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project is:

[0111] ;

[0112] in: For security risk events The weight of impact on the overall safety risk of the project, For security risk events The sum of the impact values ​​of the triggering effects on other safety risk events, For security risk events The sum of the impact values ​​of the triggering effects of other safety risk events, For security risk events Safety risk events The impact value of the triggered effect.

[0113] The following is a further explanation of the functional expression of the impact weight of the safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project:

[0114] Security risk events The sum of the triggering effects on other safety risk events The function expression is:

[0115] , ;

[0116] Security risk events The sum of the triggering effects of other safety risk events The function expression is:

[0117] , .

[0118] Step S400: Calculate the coupling risk value of the safety risk event set through the event risk value and the impact weight of the safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project. The details are as follows:

[0119] The coupling risk value of the security risk event set The function expression is:

[0120] .

[0121] The coupling risk value based on the security risk event set is used to obtain the level corresponding to the coupling risk value. The level standards corresponding to the coupling risk value are shown in Table 5:

[0122] Table 5 Level standards corresponding to coupling risk values

[0123]

[0124] Table 5 divides the coupling risk values ​​of the safety risk event set into four corresponding levels, thereby quantifying the assessment of the overall safety risk of railway construction projects, which is conducive to the overall allocation of resources by managers.

[0125] Specifically, the method for dynamic assessment of railway construction safety risks based on event coupling provided in this embodiment has at least the following beneficial effects:

[0126] (1) The coupling risk value of the safety risk event set is calculated by the event risk value of the safety risk event and the weight of the impact of the safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project. The level corresponding to the coupling risk value is obtained based on the coupling risk value of the safety risk event set, which quantifies the overall safety risk assessment of the railway construction project, helps managers understand the global safety risk status of the railway construction project, and is conducive to the overall allocation of resources by managers;

[0127] (2) Managers only need to check the level corresponding to the coupling risk value to achieve an overall safety risk assessment of the railway construction project. The operation process is fast and has a high accuracy rate.

[0128] Coupled assessment of safety risk event sets for railway construction projects on bridge environments:

[0129] Through crawler technology, historical data of railway construction safety accident reports reported by various cities on the Internet are collected as the original information of the case library. 12 safety risk events of railway construction projects in the bridge environment are identified and extracted from the original information of the case library, including: collapse A1, overturning A2, drowning A3, structural damage A4, falling from height A5, lifting injury A6, object impact A7, mechanical injury A8, vehicle injury A9, electric shock injury A10, poisoning and suffocation A11 and fire and explosion A12.

[0130] The Apriori algorithm is used to calculate the correlation between multiple security risk events, establish the adjacency matrix of the network relationship, input the adjacency matrix into the network analysis integration software UCINET, and finally use the visualization software NetDraw to visualize the security risk event association network. Figure 2 As shown, Figure 2 This is a network diagram for the safety risk events associated with railway construction in a bridge environment.

[0131] The triggering effect between security risk events is quantified from the two perspectives of triggering probability and risk transfer efficiency, as shown in Table 6:

[0132] Table 6 Impact values ​​of safety risk event triggering effects of railway construction projects on bridge environments

[0133]

[0134] Taking Bridge A as an example, the specific situation of Bridge A is as follows:

[0135] Bridge A is the controlling project of the entire L railway. The main bridge adopts a three-span continuous single-span suspended steel truss suspension bridge. The main cable span is arranged as (132+660+132) m, the vertical span ratio is 1 / 10, the steel truss span is arranged as (110+660+98) m, the standard section length is 12.2 m, the truss height is 12 m, the truss width is 22 m, and the total length of Bridge A is 882.5 m. Both sides are connected to the tunnel. The main tower adopts a portal frame structure with a height of 148.5 m to 194.5 m. The main tower foundation adopts an embedded foundation, and the anchors on both sides are tunnel anchors. Most of the bedrock in the bridge site is exposed, with some parts covered with soil. The main types of unfavorable geology are rock piles and dangerous rock falls. The bridge site is located in the mid-subtropical humid area, belonging to the plateau monsoon climate with dry winter and wet summer. The surface water is mainly river water with a huge amount of water. Taking Bridge A of L Railway as an example, the feasibility and scientificity of the safety risk event set coupling assessment model are verified.

[0136] like Figure 3 As shown, Figure 3 The following is a network diagram of the safety risk events associated with railway construction on the bridge environment in the example. According to the analysis of Bridge A, there are 6 main safety risk events in Bridge A, including: collapse A1, drowning A3, falling from height A5, lifting injury A6, object impact A7, and fire and explosion A12.

[0137] Evaluate the single risk event of Bridge A and calculate the risk value of the single risk event.

[0138] Taking the fire and explosion safety risk events as an example, the probability of occurrence was calculated: by querying the original information of the case library of railway bridge engineering construction, the six safety risk events of Bridge A appeared 48 times in the original information of the case library, of which the fire and explosion safety risk events occurred 5 times.

[0139] Query the original information of the case database of railway bridge engineering construction. The average number of deaths in fire and explosion safety risk events is 1.25, and the average direct economic loss is 1.9592 million yuan. The weight of fire and explosion safety risk events in the six safety risk events is evaluated from the perspective of the number of deaths and direct economic losses. It is 0.0989.

[0140] Bridge A is 882.5m long, which is longer than 500m. It is a super-large bridge with a large construction scale. Therefore, the project scale coefficient The value is 1.2; the seasonal construction of Bridge A is obvious, the dry season lasts for a long time (from October of the current year to May of the next year), there is almost no rainfall in the dry season, and the bridge site is surrounded by forest grassland. During the dry season construction, the forest fire prevention situation is very severe and the fire prevention pressure is huge. Therefore, there are many unfavorable factors for the safety risk events of fire and explosion, and the unfavorable coefficient is The value is 1.2. In the control of fire and explosion safety risk events of Bridge A, the on-site command center strictly stipulates the time for hot work to reduce the hidden dangers of fire and explosion safety risk events. Hot work is strictly prohibited when windy and in special time periods such as in the afternoon. During the construction of Railway Bridge A, managers can view the real-time status and real-time meteorological information of each operation area to reduce the probability of fire and explosion safety risk events. The on-site control is relatively strong, so the control coefficient The value is 0.41.

[0141] Calculate the probability of fire and explosion safety risk events occurring on Bridge A:

[0142] ;

[0143] According to Table 1, 0.003<0.0061<0.03, so the probability value of the fire and explosion safety risk event of Bridge A corresponds to level 3.

[0144] According to the above calculation formula, the probability values ​​of other safety risk events of Railway Bridge A Project are calculated, as shown in Table 7:

[0145] Table 7 Probability values ​​of safety risk events in railway construction projects on bridge environments and corresponding levels of probability values

[0146]

[0147] In Table 7: ① represents: the average number of deaths is 4.5; the average direct economic loss is 16.7393 million yuan; ② represents: the average number of deaths is 1; the average direct economic loss is 947,300 yuan; ③ represents: the average number of deaths is 1.6; the average direct economic loss is 3.0378 million yuan; ④ represents: the average number of deaths is 1; the average direct economic loss is 1.305 million yuan; ⑤ represents: the average number of deaths is 1; the average direct economic loss is 1.4512 million yuan; ⑥ represents: the average number of deaths is 1.25; the average direct economic loss is 1.9592 million yuan.

[0148] Taking the fire and explosion safety risk event A12 as an example, the loss degree value of the safety risk event is calculated. According to the value standard of each loss degree index, the casualties of the safety risk event , Economic losses , Construction delay Environmental impact And social impact The index values ​​are 2, 3, 2, 3, and 3, respectively. Therefore, the loss degree value of the fire and explosion safety risk event is Calculated as:

[0149] ;

[0150] According to the value selection standard of the loss degree index for safety risk events, the corresponding level of the loss degree value of the fire and explosion safety risk event A12 of Bridge A is Level 3.

[0151] According to the above calculation formula, the loss degree values ​​of other safety risk events are calculated, as shown in Table 8:

[0152] Table 8 Loss degree values ​​and corresponding levels of safety risk events in railway construction projects on bridge environments

[0153]

[0154] Taking the fire and explosion safety risk event A12 of bridge A as an example, the probability value of the safety risk event occurrence corresponds to level 3, and the loss degree value of the safety risk event occurrence corresponds to level 3. The event risk value of the fire and explosion safety risk event A12 is calculated as:

[0155] ;

[0156] According to the above calculation formula, the event risk values ​​of other security risk events are calculated, as shown in Table 9:

[0157] Table 9 Event risk values ​​of safety risk events in railway construction projects on bridge environments

[0158]

[0159] Based on the event risk values ​​of multiple safety risk events in the safety risk event set and the impact values ​​of the triggering effects between multiple groups of two safety risk events, a risk event triggering effect matrix of Bridge A is constructed:

[0160] ;

[0161] List security risk events The sum of the triggering effects on other safety risk events , security risk events The sum of the triggering effects of other safety risk events , the event risk value of the safety risk event and the impact weight of each safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project, as shown in Table 10:

[0162] Table 10 Impact weights of six safety risk events on the overall safety risk of the project

[0163]

[0164] According to Table 10, the coupling risk value of the safety risk event set of the railway construction project on the bridge environment is calculated: ; Coupling risk value of security risk event set exist Therefore, the risk event coupling assessment level of Bridge A is high, which is consistent with the actual situation.

[0165] Coupled assessment of safety risk event sets for railway construction projects in tunnel environments:

[0166] Through crawler technology, historical data of railway construction safety accident reports reported by various cities on the Internet are collected as the original information of the case library. From the original information of the case library, 12 safety risk events of railway construction projects in the tunnel environment are identified and extracted, including: landslide B1, rock burst B2, high ground temperature B3, large deformation B4, sudden water and mud B5, gas and harmful gases B6, fire and explosion B7, mechanical injury B8, object impact B9, electric shock B10, fall from height B11 and poisoning and suffocation B12.

[0167] The Apriori algorithm is used to calculate the correlation between multiple security risk events, establish the adjacency matrix of the network relationship, input the adjacency matrix into the network analysis integration software UCINET, and finally use the visualization software NetDraw to visualize the security risk event association network. Figure 4 As shown, Figure 4 This is a network diagram of safety risk events associated with railway construction in a tunnel environment.

[0168] The triggering effect between security risk events is quantified from the two perspectives of triggering probability and risk transfer efficiency, as shown in Table 11:

[0169] Table 11 Impact values ​​of safety risk event triggering effects of railway construction projects in tunnel environments

[0170]

[0171] Taking Tunnel B as an example, the specific situation of Tunnel B is as follows: Tunnel B is the controlling project of the entire L Railway, with a total length of 14745m and a maximum burial depth of 1240m. Tunnel B mainly develops north-south faults, and local branch faults; the tunnel site area is subject to the pushing and superposition between plates, resulting in complex geological structures, high structural stress in Tunnel B, strong metamorphism, foliation and cleavage, loose and broken rock mass, great safety risk events, and great difficulty in safety hazard management. Taking Tunnel B of L Railway as an example, the feasibility and scientificity of the safety risk event coupling assessment model are verified.

[0172] like Figure 5 As shown in the figure, through analysis, it is concluded that there are 10 major safety risk events in Tunnel B, including: landslide B1, rock burst B2, large deformation B4, sudden water and mud B5, gas and harmful gases B6, fire and explosion B7, mechanical injury B8, object impact B9, electric shock B10 and poisoning and suffocation B12.

[0173] The single risk event of tunnel B is evaluated and the risk value of the single risk event is calculated.

[0174] Taking the landslide safety risk event B1 as an example, the probability of occurrence of its safety risk event is calculated: by querying the original information of the case library of railway tunnel engineering construction, the 10 safety risk events of tunnel B appeared 136 times in the original information of the case library, of which the safety risk event of landslide occurred 36 times.

[0175] Query the original information of the case database of railway tunnel engineering construction. The average number of deaths in the safety risk event of landslide is 5.16, and the average direct economic loss is 6.5765 million yuan. The weight of the safety risk event of landslide in the 10 risk events is evaluated from the perspective of the number of deaths and direct economic losses. It is 0.2313.

[0176] Tunnel B is 14745m long, which is longer than 10000m. It is a special long tunnel with a large construction scale. Therefore, the project scale coefficient The value is 1.2; Tunnel B is located in an earthquake zone with complex geological structures and strong neotectonic movement. Tunnel B crosses a fault, so there are many unfavorable factors for collapse events. The value is 1.2. In the control of the safety risk event of the collapse of tunnel B, the on-site command center followed the control idea of ​​"mainly focusing on resistance, combining release and resistance, strong structure rather than weak, and strong support parameters first and weak later". It adopted measures such as closing the heading face, dismantling and replacing arches, adding sleeve arches, and locking anchors. It carried out multiple shotcrete reinforcement on the initial support block drop and sliding layer. At the same time, it adjusted the control measures in real time based on the monitoring and measurement data, and issued risk warnings. The on-site control intensity was relatively high, so the control coefficient The value is 0.32.

[0177] Calculate the probability of the collapse safety risk event of tunnel B :

[0178] .

[0179] According to Table 1, 0.003<0.0282<0.03, so the probability value of the collapse safety risk event of tunnel B corresponds to level 3. According to the above calculation formula, the probability values ​​of other safety risk events of tunnel B are calculated, as shown in Table 12:

[0180] In Table 12: ① represents: average number of deaths 5.16 people; average direct economic loss 6.5765 million yuan; ② represents: average number of deaths 0.61 people; average direct economic loss 1.0791 million yuan; ③ represents: average number of deaths 0.47 people; average direct economic loss 725400 yuan; ④ represents: average number of deaths 4.12 people; average direct economic loss 3.9679 million yuan; ⑤ represents: average number of deaths 2.16 people; average direct economic loss 2.0874 million yuan Yuan; ⑥ represents: the average number of deaths is 5.33 people; the average direct economic loss is 5.2476 million yuan; ⑦ represents: the average number of deaths is 3.56 people; the average direct economic loss is 2.3911 million yuan; ⑧ represents: the average number of deaths is 1.13 people; the average direct economic loss is 1.2458 million yuan; ⑨ represents: the average number of deaths is 1.14 people; the average direct economic loss is 1.6984 million yuan; ⑩ represents: the average number of deaths is 0.75 people; the average direct economic loss is 1.1425 million yuan.

[0181] Table 12 Probability of occurrence of safety risk events in railway construction projects in tunnel environments

[0182]

[0183] Taking the landslide safety risk event B1 as an example, the loss degree value of the safety risk event is calculated. According to the value standard of each loss degree index, the casualties of the safety risk event are , Economic losses , Construction delay 、Environmental impact And social impact The index values ​​are 3, 4, 3, 3, and 4, respectively. Therefore, the loss degree value of landslide safety risk event B1 is Calculated as:

[0184] ;

[0185] According to the value selection standard of the loss degree index for the occurrence of safety risk events, the corresponding level of the loss degree value of the collapse safety risk event in Tunnel B is Level 4.

[0186] According to the above calculation formula, the loss degree values ​​of other safety risk events in tunnel B are calculated, as shown in Table 13:

[0187] Table 13 Loss degree values ​​and corresponding levels of safety risk events in railway construction projects in tunnel environments

[0188]

[0189] Taking the collapse safety risk event B1 of tunnel B as an example, the probability value of the safety risk event is 3, and the loss level of the safety risk event is 4. The event risk value of the safety risk event B1 is calculated as:

[0190] ;

[0191] According to the above calculation formula, the event risk values ​​of other security risk events are calculated, as shown in Table 14:

[0192] Table 14 Event risk values ​​of safety risk events in railway construction projects in tunnel environments

[0193]

[0194] Based on the event risk values ​​of multiple security risk events in the security risk event set and the impact values ​​of the trigger effects between multiple groups of two security risk events, a risk event trigger effect matrix of tunnel B is constructed:

[0195] .

[0196] Arrange the sum of the triggering effects of each safety risk event of tunnel B on other safety risk events , the sum of the triggering effects of other safety risk events on each safety risk event of tunnel B , the event risk value of the safety risk event and the impact weight of each safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project, as shown in Table 15:

[0197] Table 15 Impact weights of ten safety risk events on the overall safety risk of the project

[0198]

[0199] According to Table 15, the coupling risk value of the safety risk event set of the railway construction project in the tunnel environment is calculated:

[0200] ;

[0201] Coupling risk value of security risk event set In the interval Therefore, the risk event coupling assessment level of Tunnel B is high, which is consistent with the actual situation.

[0202] Exemplary Devices

[0203] like Figure 6 As shown, Figure 6 The functional principle diagram of the railway construction safety risk dynamic assessment device based on event coupling is shown in FIG. Based on the above embodiment, this embodiment further provides a railway construction safety risk dynamic assessment device based on event coupling.

[0204] The railway construction safety risk dynamic assessment device based on event coupling includes a processor, a memory, an interface, a display screen and a communication module connected through a system bus; wherein the processor is used to provide computing and control capabilities; the memory includes a storage medium and an internal memory, the storage medium stores an operating system and a computer program, and the internal memory provides an environment for the operation of the operating system and the computer program in the storage medium; the interface is used to connect external devices, such as mobile terminals and computers; the display screen is used to display corresponding railway construction safety risk dynamic assessment information based on event coupling; the communication module collects historical data of railway construction safety accident reports on the Internet by communicating with the Internet.

[0205] When the computer program is executed by the processor, it is used to implement a dynamic assessment method for railway construction safety risks based on event coupling.

[0206] It can be understood by those skilled in the art that Figure 6 The functional principle diagram of the railway construction safety risk dynamic assessment device based on event coupling shown in the figure is only a block diagram of a part of the structure related to the scheme of the present invention, and does not constitute a limitation on the railway construction safety risk dynamic assessment device based on event coupling to which the scheme of the present invention is applied. Specifically, the railway construction safety risk dynamic assessment device based on event coupling may include more or fewer components than those shown in the figure, or combine certain components, or have a different arrangement of components.

[0207] In one embodiment, a device for dynamic assessment of railway construction safety risks based on event coupling is provided, comprising a memory and a processor; the memory stores a dynamic assessment program for railway construction safety risks based on event coupling, and the dynamic assessment program for railway construction safety risks based on event coupling is used to implement the operation of the dynamic assessment method for railway construction safety risks based on event coupling as described above when executed by the processor.

[0208] In one embodiment, a storage medium is provided, which is a computer-readable storage medium, and which stores a dynamic assessment program for railway construction safety risks based on event coupling. When the dynamic assessment program for railway construction safety risks based on event coupling is executed by the processor, it is used to implement the operation of the dynamic assessment method for railway construction safety risks based on event coupling as described above.

[0209] Those skilled in the art can understand that all or part of the processes in the above-mentioned embodiments can be implemented by instructing related hardware through a computer program, and the computer program can be stored in a non-volatile storage medium. When the computer program is executed, it can include the processes of each embodiment of the above-mentioned method. Among them, any reference to memory, storage, database or other media used in the embodiments provided by the present invention can include non-volatile memory and / or volatile memory.

[0210] The present application provides a method for dynamic assessment of railway construction safety risk based on event coupling, comprising the following steps: obtaining a set of safety risk events, and constructing a visual safety risk event association network through the safety risk event set; by calculating the probability value and loss degree value of the safety risk event, obtaining the level corresponding to the probability value based on the probability value of the safety risk event, obtaining the level corresponding to the loss degree value based on the loss degree value of the safety risk event, and calculating the event risk value according to the level corresponding to the probability value and the level corresponding to the loss degree value; obtaining the risk event trigger effect matrix through the degree of correlation between multiple safety risk events in the safety risk event association network, and calculating the impact weight of the safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project according to the risk event trigger effect matrix; calculating the coupling risk value of the safety risk event set through the event risk value and the impact weight of the safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project. The present application obtains the level corresponding to the coupling risk value based on the coupling risk value of the safety risk event set, quantifies the overall safety risk assessment of the railway construction project, and is conducive to the overall allocation of resources by management personnel.

[0211] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present application, rather than to limit it. Although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or make equivalent replacements for some of the technical features therein. However, these modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application.

Claims

1. A dynamic assessment method for railway construction safety risk based on event coupling, characterized in that: The railway construction safety risk dynamic assessment method comprises: Acquire a security risk event set, and construct a visualized security risk event association network through the security risk event set; By calculating the probability value and loss degree value of the occurrence of a security risk event, obtaining a level corresponding to the probability value based on the probability value of the occurrence of the security risk event, obtaining a level corresponding to the loss degree value based on the loss degree value of the occurrence of the security risk event, and calculating the event risk value according to the level corresponding to the probability value and the level corresponding to the loss degree value; The risk event trigger effect matrix is ​​obtained by the correlation degree between multiple safety risk events in the safety risk event correlation network, and the impact weight of the safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project is calculated according to the risk event trigger effect matrix; Calculate the coupling risk value of the safety risk event set by using the event risk value and the impact weight of the safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project; The function expression of the probability value of the occurrence of the security risk event is: Where: P(i) is the probability of occurrence of safety risk event i in the construction of railway construction projects, μ is the construction scale coefficient of railway construction projects, ρ i is the unfavorable coefficient of safety risk event i in railway construction, ω i is the control coefficient of safety risk event i, θ i is the weight of safety risk event i in all safety risk events in railway construction, a i is the number of safety risk events i in the historical data of railway construction safety accident reports, A is the number of all safety risk events in the historical data of railway construction safety accident reports; i is the number of safety risk events, which is a natural number from 1 to n, and n is the total number of safety risk events in the safety risk event set; The functional expression of the loss degree value of the safety risk event is: Where: SS(i) is the loss level of security risk event i, Y ij is the value of the j-th security risk event loss degree evaluation index of security risk event i, j is the label of the security risk event loss degree evaluation index, and its value is a natural number from 1 to m, and m is the total number of security risk event loss degree evaluation indicators.

2. The method for dynamic assessment of railway construction safety risks based on event coupling according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Get the security risk event set, including: A plurality of safety risk events are identified and extracted from historical data of railway construction safety accident reports and combined into the safety risk event set.

3. The railway construction safety risk dynamic assessment method based on event coupling according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The function expression of the event risk value is: D i =L i ×C i ; Where: D i is the risk value of safety risk event i in railway construction, L i is the probability level of safety risk event i in railway construction, C i It is the loss degree level of safety risk event i in the construction of railway construction projects.

4. The method for dynamic assessment of railway construction safety risk based on event coupling according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The risk event triggering effect matrix is ​​obtained by the correlation degree between multiple security risk events in the security risk event correlation network, specifically including: ①, assign values ​​and arrange in descending order the impact values ​​of the triggering effect of security risk event a on security risk event b in the security risk event association network, assign values ​​of the triggering effect impact values ​​according to the triggering effect size of security risk event a on security risk event b under c different risk level states, and arrange the assigned c values ​​in descending order, from large to small, namely d1, d2, ..., d c , and calculate the weights of the assigned values, the weights of the impact values ​​of the assigned trigger effects The function expression is: in: is the weight of the impact value of the triggering effect of the qth safety risk event a on the safety risk event b after being arranged in descending order from largest to smallest; is the combination number formula, ②. The impact value of the triggering effect of security risk event a on risk event b under c different risk level states is weighted by the weight of the impact value of the triggering effect, and the impact value of the triggering effect of security risk event a on security risk event b is obtained. The result of the impact value of the triggering effect is p ab The function expression is: Where: p ab The result is the impact value of the triggering effect of safety risk event a on safety risk event b; ③、The event risk value D1-D of n security risk events n Arranged on a diagonal line of the risk event trigger effect matrix, the results of the impact values ​​of the trigger effects between multiple groups of two safety risk events in the safety risk event association network are arranged at the remaining positions of the risk event trigger effect matrix to form an n×n risk event trigger effect matrix. The risk event trigger effect matrix P is: Where: p in is the impact value of the triggering effect of safety risk event i on safety risk event n; p nj is the impact value of the triggering effect of safety risk event n on safety risk event j.

5. The method for dynamic assessment of railway construction safety risk based on event coupling according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The impact weight of the safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project is calculated based on the risk event trigger effect matrix, including: The functional expression of the impact weight of the safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project is: Where: K i is the impact weight of safety risk event i on the overall safety risk of the project, H i is the sum of the impact values ​​of the triggering effects of security risk event i on other security risk events, E i is the sum of the impact values ​​of the triggering effects of other safety risk events on safety risk event i, p ij is the impact value of the triggering effect of safety risk event i on safety risk event j.

6. The method for dynamic assessment of railway construction safety risk based on event coupling according to claim 5 is characterized in that: The influence weight of the safety risk event on the overall safety risk of the project is calculated according to the risk event trigger effect matrix, which also includes: The sum of the impact values ​​of safety risk event i on the triggering effects of other safety risk events H i The function expression is: The sum of the impact values ​​of the triggering effects of other safety risk events on safety risk event i E i The function expression is:

7. The method for dynamic assessment of railway construction safety risks based on event coupling according to claim 5 is characterized in that: The function expression of the coupling risk value SD of the security risk event set is:

8. The method for dynamic assessment of railway construction safety risk based on event coupling according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The visualized security risk event association network is specifically: Safety risk events in railway construction on bridge environments include: collapse, overturning, drowning, structural damage, falling from height, lifting injuries, object strikes, mechanical injuries, vehicle injuries, electric shock injuries, poisoning and suffocation, and fire and explosion; Or the safety risk events that exist in railway construction in tunnel environment include: landslide, rock burst, high ground temperature, large deformation, sudden water and mud, gas and harmful gases, fire and explosion, mechanical injury, object impact, electric shock, falling from height and poisoning and suffocation.

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