Comprehensive hazard assessment method, system, equipment and storage medium based on multiple disaster-causing modes of mountain torrents and debris flows

Abstract

The present invention discloses a comprehensive risk assessment method, system, equipment and storage medium based on multiple disaster-causing modes of flash floods and debris flows. The method includes obtaining impact disaster risk variables, siltation disaster risk variables and erosion disaster risk variables of the flash flood and debris flow basin to be assessed; constructing a flash flood and debris flow comprehensive risk variable using the impact disaster risk variables, siltation disaster risk variables and erosion disaster risk variables; constructing a flash flood and debris flow comprehensive risk model using the constructed flash flood and debris flow comprehensive risk variables; and conducting a risk assessment on the flash flood and debris flow basin to be assessed using the constructed flash flood and debris flow comprehensive risk model. The present application constructs a flash flood and debris flow comprehensive risk model using the flash flood and debris flow comprehensive risk variables. Using this model, the comprehensive risk of this type of mobile disaster-causing body under three disaster-causing modes can be more accurately represented, and the flash flood and debris flow disaster risk can be finely assessed.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of flash flood and debris flow hazard assessment, and in particular relates to a comprehensive hazard assessment method, system, equipment and storage medium based on multiple disaster-causing modes of flash flood and debris flow. Background Art

[0002] Flash floods and debris flows are two common natural disasters that usually occur in mountainous areas, causing serious impacts on local life, property and environment. Flash floods refer to sudden floods that occur in mountain streams. They are characterized by strong suddenness, concentrated water volume, high flow rate, and strong scouring and destructive power. The water flow often carries mud and even stones, causing local floods. Debris flow refers to a special torrent that carries a large amount of mud, stones and other solid materials in valleys or hillsides under the action of surface water formed by rainfall, dam breach or melting ice and snow.

[0003] Traditionally, the assessment of the hazard of flash floods and debris flows in a single river basin mainly uses one of flow depth, kinetic energy and momentum to express its destructive capacity. If flow depth is used to express the destructive power, only the destructive capacity of the siltation type is calculated. If kinetic energy and momentum are used, only the destructive capacity of the impact type is calculated, which often underestimates its destructive capacity, resulting in incomplete and inaccurate disaster risk assessment results, thus affecting subsequent disaster prevention and management decisions. Summary of the invention

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a comprehensive hazard assessment method, system, equipment and storage medium based on multiple disaster-causing modes of mountain torrents and mudslides, so as to solve the problem that the existing methods can only show the hazards caused by impact or siltation, but cannot present the comprehensive hazards, which will affect the accuracy of subsequent disaster risk assessment and the formulation of risk management measures.

[0005] The embodiment of the present application is implemented as follows: a comprehensive risk assessment method based on multiple disaster-causing modes of flash floods and debris flows includes: obtaining impact disaster risk variables, siltation disaster risk variables and erosion disaster risk variables of the flash flood and debris flow basin to be assessed;

[0006] The comprehensive risk variables of mountain torrents and debris flows are constructed by using the risk variables of impact disasters, siltation disasters and erosion disasters.

[0007] The comprehensive hazard model of flash floods and debris flows is constructed using the constructed comprehensive hazard variables of flash floods and debris flows;

[0008] The constructed comprehensive hazard model of mountain torrents and debris flows is used to conduct a hazard assessment on the mountain torrents and debris flows basin to be assessed.

[0009] Optionally, in some embodiments of the present application, the impact disaster risk variable is represented by the impact force of mountain torrents and mud-rock flows, and the formula for the impact disaster risk variable is:

[0010] ;

[0011] In the formula, is the non-uniformity coefficient of the disaster-causing body; is the average density of the disaster-causing body; is the flow velocity of the hazard body; and / or

[0012] The variable of siltation disaster risk is expressed by the static pressure of mountain torrents and debris flows. The formula of siltation disaster risk variable is:

[0013] ;

[0014] In the formula, is the average density of the disaster-causing body; is the acceleration due to gravity; is the burial depth of the hazard-causing body; and / or

[0015] The erosion disaster risk variable is expressed by shear stress, and the formula for the erosion disaster risk variable is:

[0016] ;

[0017] In the formula, is the shear stress; is the average density of the disaster-causing body; is the acceleration due to gravity; The burial depth of the disaster-causing body; is the slope of the ditch.

[0018] Optionally, in some embodiments of the present application, the formula for the comprehensive risk variable of flash floods and debris flows is:

[0019] ;

[0020] In the formula, is the comprehensive risk variable of mountain torrents and debris flows, is the variable of shock-caused disaster risk; is the variable of siltation disaster hazard; It is the variable of erosion disaster risk.

[0021] Optionally, in some embodiments of the present application, the formula of the comprehensive risk model of flash floods and debris flows is:

[0022] ;

[0023] In the formula, It is the comprehensive risk level of mountain torrents and debris flows; is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body; The burial depth of the disaster-causing body; is the non-uniformity coefficient of the disaster-causing body; is the acceleration due to gravity; is the Manning coefficient.

[0024] Optionally, in some embodiments of the present application, the method for constructing a comprehensive risk model of flash floods and debris flows includes:

[0025] Provided by Manning formula:

[0026] ;

[0027] Assumptions ;

[0028] In the formula, is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body; is the Manning coefficient; is the hydraulic radius; is the slope of the ditch; The burial depth of the disaster-causing body;

[0029] Establish and flow velocity of the disaster-causing body The relationship formula is:

[0030] ;

[0031] In the formula, is the shear stress; is the average density of the disaster-causing body; is the acceleration due to gravity; The burial depth of the disaster-causing body; is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body; is the Manning coefficient;

[0032] The formulas for the impact hazard variable, the siltation hazard variable, the erosion hazard variable and and flow velocity of the disaster-causing body Substitute the relationship formula into the formula of comprehensive risk variable of flash flood and debris flow to obtain:

[0033] ;

[0034] In the formula, is the comprehensive risk variable of mountain torrents and debris flows, is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body; The burial depth of the disaster-causing body; is the non-uniformity coefficient of the disaster-causing body; is the average density of the disaster-causing body; is the acceleration due to gravity; is the Manning coefficient;

[0035] make , the formula of the comprehensive hazard model of mountain torrents and debris flows can be obtained:

[0036] ;

[0037] In the formula, It is the comprehensive risk level of mountain torrents and debris flows; is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body; The burial depth of the disaster-causing body; is the non-uniformity coefficient of the disaster-causing body; is the acceleration due to gravity; is the Manning coefficient.

[0038] Optionally, in some embodiments of the present application, and flow velocity of the disaster-causing body The relationship formula specifically includes:

[0039] From Manning's formula we know:

[0040] ;

[0041] ;

[0042] ;

[0043] In the formula, is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body; is the Manning coefficient; is the slope of the ditch; The burial depth of the disaster-causing body;

[0044] Furthermore, from the formula of erosion disaster risk variable, we know:

[0045] ;

[0046] ;

[0047] In the formula, is the shear stress; is the average density of the disaster-causing body; is the acceleration due to gravity; The burial depth of the disaster-causing body; is the slope of the ditch;

[0048] get and flow velocity of the disaster-causing body The relationship formula is:

[0049] ;

[0050] ;

[0051] In the formula, is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body; is the Manning coefficient; is the shear stress; is the average density of the disaster-causing body; is the acceleration due to gravity; It is the burial depth of the disaster-causing body.

[0052] Optionally, in some embodiments of the present application, before using the constructed comprehensive hazard model for flash floods and debris flows to conduct a hazard assessment on the flash flood and debris flow basin to be assessed, the flash flood and debris flow basin to be assessed is first gridded, and the maximum flow velocity and maximum flow depth in each grid are obtained based on the numerical simulation technology of the flash flood and debris flow process, and then the constructed comprehensive hazard model for flash floods and debris flows is used to calculate the comprehensive hazard degree of flash floods and debris flows in each grid, and finally all the comprehensive hazard degrees of flash floods and debris flows are classified into hazard levels to complete the hazard assessment of the flash flood and debris flow basin to be assessed.

[0053] Accordingly, the embodiment of the present application also provides a comprehensive risk assessment system based on multiple disaster-causing modes of flash floods and debris flows, including: a single risk variable acquisition module, used to obtain impact disaster risk variables, siltation disaster risk variables and erosion disaster risk variables of the flash flood and debris flow basin to be assessed;

[0054] The comprehensive risk variable construction module uses the impact disaster risk variable, siltation disaster risk variable and erosion disaster risk variable to construct the comprehensive risk variable of mountain torrents and debris flows;

[0055] A comprehensive hazard model construction module is used to construct a comprehensive hazard model of flash floods and debris flows using the constructed comprehensive hazard variables of flash floods and debris flows;

[0056] The hazard assessment module uses the constructed comprehensive hazard model of mountain torrents and debris flows to conduct hazard assessment on the mountain torrents and debris flow basin to be assessed.

[0057] Accordingly, an embodiment of the present application also provides a computer device, including a storage device and a processor, wherein the storage device stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by the processor, the processor executes the steps of the above method.

[0058] Accordingly, an embodiment of the present application also provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the processor executes the steps of the above method.

[0059] In summary, due to the adoption of the above technical solution, the beneficial effects of the present invention are:

[0060] This application can avoid the limitation of traditional methods that can only calculate the impact hazard or siltation hazard of flash floods and debris flows, thus underestimating the hazard of flash floods and debris flows, in the calculation of the hazard of flash floods and debris flows. On the basis of simultaneously considering the impact disaster hazard variable, i.e., the superposition of the two disaster modes of the impact and siltation disaster hazard variables of flash floods and debris flows, the erosion disaster hazard variable of flash floods and debris flows, i.e., the erosion and destructive capacity of flash floods and debris flows, is further considered, and a comprehensive hazard variable that can simultaneously reflect the three disaster modes of flash floods and debris flows, i.e., impact, siltation and erosion, is constructed. A comprehensive hazard model of flash floods and debris flows is constructed using the comprehensive hazard variable of flash floods and debris flows. Using this model, the comprehensive hazard of this type of mobile disaster-causing body under the three disaster modes can be more accurately represented, and the comprehensive assessment of the hazards of multiple disaster modes of flash floods and debris flows can be achieved. The assessment results can further serve the refined assessment of flash flood and debris flow risks. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0061] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the comprehensive risk assessment method based on multiple disaster-causing modes of mountain torrents and mud-rock flows of the present invention;

[0062] Figure 2 This is a distribution diagram of the movement distance and flow depth of mountain torrents and debris flows in different time periods according to the application example of the present invention;

[0063] Figure 3 This is a maximum flow depth distribution diagram of an application example of the present invention;

[0064] Figure 4 This is a maximum flow velocity distribution diagram of an application example of the present invention;

[0065] Figure 5 It is a comprehensive hazard level diagram of the application example of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0066] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present invention more clearly understood, the present invention is further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention and are not used to limit the present invention.

[0067] The technical solution of this application is as follows:

[0068] See also Figure 1 The embodiment of the present application provides a comprehensive risk assessment method based on multiple disaster-causing modes of mountain torrents and mud-rock flows, including:

[0069] S01. Obtain the impact disaster risk variables, siltation disaster risk variables and erosion disaster risk variables of the mountain torrent and debris flow basin to be assessed;

[0070] S02. Use the impact disaster risk variables, siltation disaster risk variables and erosion disaster risk variables to construct the comprehensive risk variables of mountain torrents and debris flows;

[0071] S03. Construct a comprehensive risk model of mountain torrents and debris flows using the constructed comprehensive risk variables of mountain torrents and debris flows;

[0072] S04. Conduct risk assessment on the mountain torrent and debris flow basin to be assessed using the constructed comprehensive risk model for mountain torrent and debris flow.

[0073] This application can avoid the limitation of traditional methods that can only calculate the impact hazard or siltation hazard of flash floods and debris flows, thus underestimating the hazard of flash floods and debris flows, in the calculation of the hazard of flash floods and debris flows. On the basis of simultaneously considering the impact disaster hazard variable, i.e., the superposition of the two disaster modes of the impact and siltation disaster hazard variables of flash floods and debris flows, the erosion disaster hazard variable of flash floods and debris flows, i.e., the erosion and destructive capacity of flash floods and debris flows, is further considered, and a comprehensive hazard variable that can simultaneously reflect the three disaster modes of flash floods and debris flows, i.e., impact, siltation and erosion, is constructed. A comprehensive hazard model of flash floods and debris flows is constructed using the comprehensive hazard variable of flash floods and debris flows. Using this model, the comprehensive hazard of this type of mobile disaster-causing body under the three disaster modes can be more accurately represented, and the comprehensive assessment of the hazards of multiple disaster modes of flash floods and debris flows can be achieved. The assessment results can further serve the refined assessment of flash flood and debris flow risks.

[0074] In the S01:

[0075] In some embodiments, the impact disaster risk variable is represented by the impact force of mountain torrents and mud-rock flows, and the formula for the impact disaster risk variable is:

[0076] ;

[0077] In the formula, is the non-uniformity coefficient of the disaster-causing body, with a dimension of 1 and a value between 2.5 and 4; is the average density of the disaster-causing body, ; is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body, ;

[0078] In some embodiments, the siltation disaster risk variable is represented by the static pressure of mountain torrents and debris flows, and the formula for the siltation disaster risk variable is:

[0079] ;

[0080] In the formula, is the average density of the disaster-causing body, ; is the acceleration due to gravity, usually taken ; is the burial depth of the disaster-causing body, ;

[0081] In some embodiments, the erosion hazard variable is expressed as shear stress, and the formula for the erosion hazard variable is:

[0082] ;

[0083] In the formula, is the shear stress, Pa; is the average density of the disaster-causing body, ; is the acceleration due to gravity, usually taken ; is the burial depth of the disaster-causing body, ; is the slope of the ditch.

[0084] In the S02:

[0085] In some embodiments, the formula for the comprehensive risk variable of flash floods and debris flows is:

[0086] ;

[0087] In the formula, is the comprehensive risk variable of mountain torrents and debris flows, is the variable of shock-caused disaster risk; is the variable of siltation disaster hazard; It is the variable of erosion disaster risk.

[0088] In said S03:

[0089] In some embodiments, the formula of the comprehensive hazard model of flash floods and debris flows is:

[0090] ;

[0091] In the formula, is the comprehensive risk level of mountain torrents and mud-rock flows. ; is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body, ; is the burial depth of the disaster-causing body, ; is the non-uniformity coefficient of the disaster-causing body, ranging from 2.5 to 4, with a dimension of 1; is the acceleration due to gravity, usually taken ; is the Manning coefficient, .

[0092] Furthermore, the method for constructing a comprehensive risk model of flash floods and debris flows includes:

[0093] S031. Provide the Manning formula:

[0094] ;

[0095] Assumptions ;

[0096] In the formula, is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body, ; is the Manning coefficient, ; is the hydraulic radius, ; is the slope of the ditch, dimension is 1; is the burial depth of the disaster-causing body, ;

[0097] It can be understood that the relationship between shear stress and flow velocity of the disaster-causing body can be established using Manning's empirical formula.

[0098] Understandably, is the hydraulic radius, , which is the ratio of the flow area of ​​the gully section to the circumference of the channel in contact with the fluid (wetted circumference), is related to the cross-sectional shape. Assume Buried depth of disaster-causing body .

[0099] Understandably, Manning coefficient , the value is determined by the underlying surface material, the specific values ​​are shown in Table 1:

[0100] Table 1 Manning coefficient List

[0101]

[0102] S032, Establishment and flow velocity of the disaster-causing body The relationship formula is:

[0103] ;

[0104] In the formula, is the shear stress, Pa; is the average density of the disaster-causing body, ; is the acceleration due to gravity, usually taken ; is the burial depth of the disaster-causing body, ; is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body, ; is the Manning coefficient, ;

[0105] S033. Combine the formulas for impact hazard variables, siltation hazard variables, and erosion hazard variables. and flow velocity of the disaster-causing body Substitute the relationship formula into the formula of comprehensive risk variable of flash flood and debris flow to obtain:

[0106] ;

[0107] In the formula, is the comprehensive risk variable of mountain torrents and debris flows, is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body, ; is the burial depth of the disaster-causing body, ; is the non-uniformity coefficient of the disaster-causing body, with a value of 2.5~4 and a dimension of 1; is the average density of the disaster-causing body, ; is the acceleration due to gravity, usually taken ; is the Manning coefficient, ;

[0108] S034, Order , the formula of the comprehensive hazard model of mountain torrents and debris flows can be obtained:

[0109] ;

[0110] In the formula, is the comprehensive risk level of mountain torrents and mud-rock flows. ; is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body, ; is the burial depth of the disaster-causing body, ; is the non-uniformity coefficient of the disaster-causing body, with a value of 2.5~4 and a dimension of 1; is the acceleration due to gravity, usually taken ; is the Manning coefficient, .

[0111] Understandably, It is the comprehensive risk degree of mountain torrents and mud-rock flows, which is the quantified form of the comprehensive risk and its dimension is meter.

[0112] In the S032:

[0113] In some embodiments, it is known from the Manning formula:

[0114] ;

[0115] ;

[0116] ;

[0117] In the formula, is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body, ; is the Manning coefficient, ; is the slope of the ditch, dimension is 1; is the burial depth of the disaster-causing body, ;

[0118] Furthermore, from the formula of erosion disaster risk variable, we know:

[0119] ;

[0120] ;

[0121] In the formula, is the shear stress, Pa; is the average density of the disaster-causing body, ; is the acceleration due to gravity, usually taken ; is the burial depth of the disaster-causing body, ; is the slope of the ditch;

[0122] Furthermore, we can obtain and flow velocity of the disaster-causing body The relationship formula is:

[0123] ;

[0124] ;

[0125] In the formula, is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body, ; is the Manning coefficient, ; is the shear stress, Pa; is the average density of the disaster-causing body, ; is the acceleration due to gravity, usually taken ; is the burial depth of the disaster-causing body, .

[0126] In said S04:

[0127] In some embodiments, before using the constructed comprehensive flash flood and debris flow hazard model to conduct a hazard assessment on the flash flood and debris flow basin to be assessed, the flash flood and debris flow basin to be assessed is first gridded, and the maximum flow velocity and maximum flow depth in each grid are obtained based on the numerical simulation technology of the flash flood and debris flow process. Then, the constructed comprehensive flash flood and debris flow hazard model is used to calculate the comprehensive hazard degree of the flash flood and debris flow in each grid. Finally, all the comprehensive hazard degrees of flash floods and debris flows are classified into hazard levels to complete the hazard assessment of the flash flood and debris flow basin to be assessed.

[0128] Furthermore, the method of classifying the comprehensive danger levels of all mountain torrents and debris flows into dangerous levels is the natural breakpoint method.

[0129] It can be understood that the maximum flow velocity and maximum flow depth in each grid are obtained based on the numerical simulation technology of the mountain torrent and debris flow process, that is, the Flo-2d software is used to obtain the maximum flow velocity and maximum flow depth in each grid.

[0130] It can be understood that the Natural Breaks method is a commonly used classification method, which is mainly used to segment continuous data (such as hazard index, disaster risk value, etc.) in order to more clearly express the internal structure and differences of the data. This method divides the data set into several groups by minimizing the intra-class differences and maximizing the inter-class differences, and defines each group as a different level. The calculation of the Natural Breaks method can be automatically completed using existing GIS tools (such as ArcGIS, QGIS, etc.) or statistical software (such as R language). For example, ArcGIS provides the option of directly using the Jenks Natural Breaks method for classification.

[0131] In a second aspect, the embodiments of the present application provide a comprehensive risk assessment system based on multiple disaster-causing modes of flash floods and mud-rock flows, including:

[0132] A single hazard variable acquisition module is used to obtain the impact disaster hazard variables, siltation disaster hazard variables and erosion disaster hazard variables of the mountain torrent and debris flow basin to be assessed;

[0133] The comprehensive risk variable construction module uses the impact disaster risk variable, siltation disaster risk variable and erosion disaster risk variable to construct the comprehensive risk variable of mountain torrents and debris flows;

[0134] A comprehensive hazard model construction module is used to construct a comprehensive hazard model of flash floods and debris flows using the constructed comprehensive hazard variables of flash floods and debris flows;

[0135] The hazard assessment module uses the constructed comprehensive hazard model of mountain torrents and debris flows to conduct hazard assessment on the mountain torrents and debris flow basin to be assessed.

[0136] In the single risk variable acquisition module:

[0137] In some embodiments, the impact disaster risk variable is represented by the impact force of mountain torrents and mud-rock flows, and the formula for the impact disaster risk variable is:

[0138] ;

[0139] In the formula, is the non-uniformity coefficient of the disaster-causing body, with a dimension of 1 and a value between 2.5 and 4; is the average density of the disaster-causing body, ; is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body, ;

[0140] In some embodiments, the siltation disaster risk variable is represented by the static pressure of mountain torrents and debris flows, and the formula for the siltation disaster risk variable is:

[0141] ;

[0142] In the formula, is the average density of the disaster-causing body, ; is the acceleration due to gravity, usually taken ; is the burial depth of the disaster-causing body, ;

[0143] In some embodiments, the erosion hazard variable is expressed as shear stress, and the formula for the erosion hazard variable is:

[0144] ;

[0145] In the formula, is the shear stress, Pa; is the average density of the disaster-causing body, ; is the acceleration due to gravity, usually taken ; is the burial depth of the disaster-causing body, ; is the slope of the ditch.

[0146] In the comprehensive risk variable construction module:

[0147] In some embodiments, the formula for the comprehensive risk variable of flash floods and debris flows is:

[0148] ;

[0149] In the formula, is the comprehensive risk variable of mountain torrents and debris flows, is the variable of shock-caused disaster risk; is the variable of siltation disaster hazard; It is the variable of erosion disaster risk.

[0150] In the comprehensive hazard model construction module:

[0151] In some embodiments, the formula of the comprehensive hazard model of flash floods and debris flows is:

[0152] ;

[0153] In the formula, is the comprehensive risk level of mountain torrents and mud-rock flows. ; is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body, ; is the burial depth of the disaster-causing body, ; is the non-uniformity coefficient of the disaster-causing body, with a value of 2.5~4 and a dimension of 1; is the acceleration due to gravity, usually taken ; is the Manning coefficient, .

[0154] Furthermore, the method for constructing a comprehensive risk model of flash floods and debris flows includes:

[0155] Provided by Manning formula:

[0156] ;

[0157] Assumptions ;

[0158] In the formula, is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body, ; is the Manning coefficient, ; is the hydraulic radius, ; is the slope of the ditch, dimension is 1; is the burial depth of the disaster-causing body, ;

[0159] It can be understood that the relationship between shear stress and flow velocity of the disaster-causing body can be established using Manning's empirical formula.

[0160] Understandably, is the hydraulic radius, , which is the ratio of the flow area of ​​the gully section to the circumference of the channel in contact with the fluid (wetted circumference), is related to the cross-sectional shape. Assume Buried depth of disaster-causing body .

[0161] Understandably, Manning coefficient , the value is determined by the underlying surface material.

[0162] Establish and flow velocity of the disaster-causing body The relationship formula is:

[0163] ;

[0164] In the formula, is the shear stress, Pa; is the average density of the disaster-causing body, ; is the acceleration due to gravity, usually taken ; is the burial depth of the disaster-causing body, ; is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body, ; is the Manning coefficient, ;

[0165] The formulas for the impact hazard variable, the siltation hazard variable, the erosion hazard variable and and flow velocity of the disaster-causing body Substitute the relationship formula into the formula of comprehensive risk variable of flash flood and debris flow to obtain:

[0166] ;

[0167] In the formula, is the comprehensive risk variable of mountain torrents and debris flows, is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body, ; is the burial depth of the disaster-causing body, ; is the non-uniformity coefficient of the disaster-causing body, with a value of 2.5~4 and a dimension of 1; is the average density of the disaster-causing body, ; is the acceleration due to gravity, usually taken ; is the Manning coefficient, ;

[0168] make , the formula of the comprehensive hazard model of mountain torrents and debris flows can be obtained:

[0169] ;

[0170] In the formula, is the comprehensive risk level of mountain torrents and mud-rock flows. ; is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body, ; is the burial depth of the disaster-causing body, ; is the non-uniformity coefficient of the disaster-causing body, with a value of 2.5~4 and a dimension of 1; is the acceleration due to gravity, usually taken ; is the Manning coefficient, .

[0171] Understandably, It is the comprehensive risk degree of mountain torrents and mud-rock flows, which is the quantified form of the comprehensive risk and its dimension is meter.

[0172] In some embodiments, it is known from the Manning formula:

[0173] ;

[0174] ;

[0175] ;

[0176] In the formula, is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body, ; is the Manning coefficient, ; is the slope of the ditch, dimension is 1; is the burial depth of the disaster-causing body, ;

[0177] Furthermore, from the formula of erosion disaster risk variable, we know:

[0178] ;

[0179] ;

[0180] In the formula, is the shear stress, Pa; is the average density of the disaster-causing body, ; is the acceleration due to gravity, usually taken ; is the burial depth of the disaster-causing body, ; is the slope of the ditch;

[0181] Furthermore, we can obtain and flow velocity of the disaster-causing body The relationship formula is:

[0182] ;

[0183] .

[0184] In the risk assessment module:

[0185] In some embodiments, before using the constructed comprehensive flash flood and debris flow hazard model to conduct a hazard assessment on the flash flood and debris flow basin to be assessed, the flash flood and debris flow basin to be assessed is first gridded, and the maximum flow velocity and maximum flow depth in each grid are obtained based on the numerical simulation technology of the flash flood and debris flow process. Then, the constructed comprehensive flash flood and debris flow hazard model is used to calculate the comprehensive hazard degree of the flash flood and debris flow in each grid. Finally, all the comprehensive hazard degrees of flash floods and debris flows are classified into hazard levels to complete the hazard assessment of the flash flood and debris flow basin to be assessed.

[0186] Furthermore, the method of classifying the comprehensive danger levels of all mountain torrents and debris flows into dangerous levels is the natural breakpoint method.

[0187] In a third aspect, the present application provides a computer device comprising a storage device and a processor, wherein the storage device stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by the processor, the processor executes the steps of the above-mentioned comprehensive risk assessment method based on multiple disaster-causing modes of flash floods and mudslides.

[0188] The computer device may be a desktop computer, a notebook, a PDA, a cloud server, etc. The computer device may interact with the user through a keyboard, a mouse, a remote control, a touch pad, or a voice control device.

[0189] The memory includes at least one type of readable storage medium, and the readable storage medium includes flash memory, hard disk, multimedia card, card-type memory (for example, SD or D interface display memory, etc.), random access memory (RAM), static random access memory (SRAM), read-only memory (ROM), electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), programmable read-only memory (PROM), magnetic memory, disk, optical disk, etc. In some embodiments, the memory can be an internal storage unit of the computer device, such as a hard disk or memory of the computer device. In other embodiments, the memory can also be an external storage device of the computer device, such as a plug-in hard disk equipped on the computer device, a smart memory card (SmartMediaCard, SMC), a secure digital (SecureDigital, SD) card, a flash card (FlashCard), etc. Of course, the memory can also include both the internal storage unit of the computer device and its external storage device. In this embodiment, the memory is often used to store the operating system and various application software installed on the computer device, such as the program code of the comprehensive risk assessment method based on the multi-disaster mode of mountain torrents and mudslides. In addition, the memory may also be used to temporarily store various types of data that have been output or are to be output.

[0190] The processor may be a central processing unit (CPU), a controller, a microcontroller, a microprocessor, or other data processing chip in some embodiments. The processor is generally used to control the overall operation of the computer device. In this embodiment, the processor is used to run the program code stored in the memory or process data, such as running the program code of the comprehensive risk assessment method based on multiple disaster-causing modes of mountain torrents, mudslides and debris flows.

[0191] In a fourth aspect, the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the processor executes the steps of the above-mentioned comprehensive risk assessment method based on multiple disaster-causing modes of flash floods and mudslides.

[0192] Among them, the computer-readable storage medium stores an interface display program, and the interface display program can be executed by at least one processor so that the at least one processor executes the steps of the above-mentioned comprehensive risk assessment method based on multiple disaster-causing modes of flash floods and mudslides.

[0193] Through the description of the above implementation methods, those skilled in the art can clearly understand that the above-mentioned embodiment methods can be implemented by means of software plus the necessary general hardware platform, and of course by hardware, but in many cases the former is a better implementation method. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present application, or the part that contributes to the prior art, can be embodied in the form of a software product, which is stored in a storage medium (such as ROM / RAM, disk, CD), and includes a number of instructions for enabling a terminal device (which can be a mobile phone, computer, server or network device, etc.) to execute the comprehensive risk assessment method based on the multi-disaster mode of mountain torrents and mudslides described in the embodiment of the present application.

[0194] The invention is further described below in conjunction with application cases.

[0195] Application Examples

[0196] Taking a mountain flood and mudslide scenario as an example, the disaster process was simulated using the FLO-2D software. The FLO-2D software uses a non-Newtonian body and central finite difference scheme numerical method to extract the fluid motion control equations, and then calculate the flow velocity and flow depth of the fluid in the horizontal direction X and vertical direction Y.

[0197] Use the DEM data of the study area to simulate the evolution of disasters. Figure 2 It shows the evolution and development of the entire disaster and the movement range of mountain torrents and mudslides in different time periods ( Figure 2 , T=3 minutes, T=6 minutes, T=9 minutes, T=12 minutes, T=15 minutes, T=20 minutes), as well as the flow depth and velocity distribution in each grid.

[0198] Based on the numerical simulation results of the mountain torrent debris flow process, the maximum flow depth and maximum flow velocity of each grid in the entire simulation process are selected and distributed as follows: Figure 3 and Figure 4 As shown, Figure 3 is the maximum flow depth at each location within the range of the flash flood and debris flow during the entire simulation process, ranging from 0 to a maximum of 52.1 meters. Figure 3 The right figure is an enlarged view of the red box in the left figure, showing the maximum flow depth value of each grid, see Table 2; Figure 4 is the maximum flow velocity at each location within the range of the flash flood and debris flow during the entire simulation process, ranging from 0 to a maximum of 9.4 m / s. Figure 4 The right picture is an enlarged picture of the red box in the left picture, showing the maximum flow velocity of each grid, see Table 2; the comprehensive hazard model of mountain torrents and debris flows constructed in this application is used to calculate the comprehensive hazard value of the affected area, see Table 2, and it is divided into 5 levels using the natural breakpoint method, see Figure 5 , Figure 5 The debris flow hazard level is divided into five levels: low, relatively low, medium, relatively high, and high. The area of ​​the high-risk area is 0.8527 square kilometers, accounting for 35.32% of the total area, which is the highest proportion among all levels. The area of ​​the higher-risk area is 0.1936 square kilometers, accounting for 8.02%. The area of ​​the medium-risk area is 0.2815 square kilometers, accounting for 11.66%. The area of ​​the lower-risk area is 0.4080 square kilometers, accounting for 16.90%. The area of ​​the low-risk area is 0.6784 square kilometers, accounting for 28.10%, which is significantly reduced compared with other levels. This shows that under the current simulation conditions, the area of ​​high-risk areas in the region is the largest, the area of ​​low-risk areas is small, and the risks are more concentrated in high-level areas.

[0199] Table 2 Results of maximum flow depth, maximum flow velocity and comprehensive hazard value

[0200]

[0201] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions and improvements made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A comprehensive risk assessment method based on multiple disaster-causing modes of mountain torrents and debris flows, characterized by: include: Obtain the impact disaster hazard variables, siltation disaster hazard variables and erosion disaster hazard variables of the mountain torrent and debris flow basin to be assessed; The comprehensive risk variables of mountain torrents and debris flows are constructed by using the risk variables of impact disasters, siltation disasters and erosion disasters. The comprehensive hazard model of flash floods and debris flows is constructed using the constructed comprehensive hazard variables of flash floods and debris flows; Using the constructed comprehensive risk model of mountain torrents and debris flows to conduct risk assessment on the mountain torrents and debris flows basin to be assessed; Among them, the erosion disaster risk variable is expressed by shear stress, and the formula of the erosion disaster risk variable is: ； In the formula, is the shear stress; is the average density of the disaster-causing body; is the acceleration due to gravity; The burial depth of the disaster-causing body; is the slope of the ditch; The formula for the comprehensive hazard variable of mountain torrents and debris flows is: ； In the formula, is the comprehensive risk variable of mountain torrents and debris flows, is the variable of shock-caused disaster risk; is the variable of siltation disaster hazard; It is the variable of erosion disaster risk.

2. The comprehensive risk assessment method based on multiple disaster-causing modes of mountain torrents and mud-rock flows according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The impact disaster risk variable is expressed by the impact force of mountain torrents and debris flows. The formula for the impact disaster risk variable is: ； In the formula, is the non-uniformity coefficient of the disaster-causing body; is the average density of the disaster-causing body; is the flow velocity of the hazard body; and / or The variable of siltation disaster risk is expressed by the static pressure of mountain torrents and debris flows. The formula of siltation disaster risk variable is: ； In the formula, is the average density of the disaster-causing body; is the acceleration due to gravity; It is the burial depth of the disaster-causing body.

3. The comprehensive risk assessment method based on multiple disaster-causing modes of mountain torrents and mud-rock flows according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The formula of the comprehensive hazard model of mountain torrents and debris flows is: ； In the formula, It is the comprehensive risk level of mountain torrents and debris flows; is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body; The burial depth of the disaster-causing body; is the non-uniformity coefficient of the disaster-causing body; is the acceleration due to gravity; is the Manning coefficient.

4. The comprehensive risk assessment method based on multiple disaster-causing modes of mountain torrents and mud-rock flows according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The construction method of the comprehensive hazard model of mountain torrents and debris flows includes: The formula for obtaining the comprehensive hazard variable of flash floods and debris flows is: ； In the formula, is the comprehensive risk variable of mountain torrents and debris flows, is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body; The burial depth of the disaster-causing body; is the non-uniformity coefficient of the disaster-causing body; is the average density of the disaster-causing body; is the acceleration due to gravity; is the Manning coefficient; make , we can get the formula of the comprehensive hazard model of flash floods and debris flows.

5. The comprehensive risk assessment method based on multiple disaster-causing modes of mountain torrents and mud-rock flows according to claim 4 is characterized in that: Establish and the flow velocity of the disaster body The relationship formula of From Manning's formula we know: ； ； In the formula, is the flow velocity of the disaster-causing body; is the Manning coefficient; is the shear stress; is the average density of the disaster-causing body; is the acceleration due to gravity; It is the burial depth of the disaster-causing body.

6. The comprehensive risk assessment method based on multiple disaster-causing modes of mountain torrents and mud-rock flows according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Before using the constructed comprehensive flash flood and debris flow hazard model to conduct a hazard assessment on the flash flood and debris flow basin to be assessed, the flash flood and debris flow basin to be assessed is first gridded, and the maximum flow velocity and maximum flow depth in each grid are obtained based on the numerical simulation technology of the flash flood and debris flow process. Then, the constructed comprehensive flash flood and debris flow hazard model is used to calculate the comprehensive hazard degree of the flash flood and debris flow in each grid. Finally, all the comprehensive hazard degrees of flash floods and debris flows are classified into hazard levels to complete the hazard assessment of the flash flood and debris flow basin to be assessed.

7. A comprehensive risk assessment system based on multiple disaster-causing modes of mountain torrents and mud-rock flows, characterized by: include: A single hazard variable acquisition module is used to obtain the impact disaster hazard variables, siltation disaster hazard variables and erosion disaster hazard variables of the mountain torrent and debris flow basin to be assessed; The comprehensive risk variable construction module uses the impact disaster risk variable, siltation disaster risk variable and erosion disaster risk variable to construct the comprehensive risk variable of mountain torrents and debris flows; A comprehensive hazard model construction module is used to construct a comprehensive hazard model of flash floods and debris flows using the constructed comprehensive hazard variables of flash floods and debris flows; A hazard assessment module, using the constructed comprehensive hazard model of mountain torrents and debris flows to conduct a hazard assessment on the mountain torrents and debris flows basin to be assessed; Among them, the erosion disaster risk variable is expressed by shear stress, and the formula of the erosion disaster risk variable is: ； In the formula, is the shear stress; is the average density of the disaster-causing body; is the acceleration due to gravity; The burial depth of the disaster-causing body; is the slope of the ditch; The formula for the comprehensive hazard variable of mountain torrents and debris flows is: ； In the formula, is the comprehensive risk variable of mountain torrents and debris flows, is the variable of shock-caused disaster risk; is the variable of siltation disaster hazard; It is the variable of erosion disaster risk.

8. Computer device, characterized in that The invention comprises a storage and a processor, wherein the storage stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by the processor, the processor executes the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

9. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that A computer program is stored, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the processor is caused to execute the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

Images