Cost analysis method in wind power hydrogen production field

Abstract

The invention provides a cost analysis method in the field of wind power hydrogen production. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring the cost composition of a hydrogen production station; and calculating the production cost of unit hydrogen in the full life cycle of the project through the leveling hydrogen production cost by adopting a leveling hydrogen production cost model. By analyzing the investment cost and the operation cost in the field of wind power hydrogen production, the invention aims to provide empirical analysis and strategy suggestions for new energy and hydrogen energy fusion development in Xinjiang and even the whole country. And through quantitative analysis, the economy of different technical routes is disclosed, and the competitiveness of the technical routes under the current market condition and the potential influence on future energy system transformation are evaluated.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the field of energy, and in particular relates to a cost analysis method in the field of wind power hydrogen production. Background Art

[0002] In the evolution of human civilization, energy plays an indispensable role. It has always been the core driving force for social progress and economic development, and the cornerstone of human survival and development. Since the Industrial Revolution, the widespread use of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas has greatly promoted the process of industrialization. However, with the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, the excessive dependence on traditional fossil fuels has gradually exposed its limitations. Problems such as the non-renewable nature of resources, increased environmental pollution, and global warming are becoming increasingly severe, seriously threatening the ecological balance of the earth and the living environment of mankind. The traditional fossil energy production and supply model can no longer meet the needs of future social development. Against this background, exploring a low-carbon, clean and sustainable energy development path to reduce the environmental burden brought by fossil energy has become an urgent task faced by the world.

[0003] In this era, the green and low-carbon energy revolution came into being, aiming to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, ease environmental pressure, ensure energy security, and promote sustainable development. As the most representative green renewable energy, wind energy is clean, renewable, and almost unlimited, making it a key driver for achieving the "dual carbon" goal. Compared with traditional fossil energy, wind energy produces almost no greenhouse gas emissions during the power generation process, has little impact on the environment, and is the preferred option for building a low-carbon society. Therefore, wind energy will play a supporting role in the energy transformation process.

[0004] With the advancement of the "dual carbon" goals, my country's wind power industry has ushered in unprecedented development opportunities. By the end of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power will be 330 million kilowatts. These data intuitively demonstrate China's remarkable achievements in the field of new energy and the increasingly important position of new energy in the national energy structure. However, the development and utilization of wind energy is not without challenges. Their inherent intermittent and seasonal fluctuations make it easy to cause imbalances in power supply and demand, and reduce system stability and safety when they are incorporated into the existing power grid system. Especially in periods of abundant wind energy, if it cannot be absorbed in time, the phenomenon of "wind abandonment" will occur; these phenomena not only cause a waste of precious resources, but also limit the effective use of renewable energy. Therefore, how to effectively manage and dispatch these unstable energy outputs and improve their utilization has become a key technical problem that needs to be solved in the energy field. Summary of the invention

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a cost analysis method in the field of wind power hydrogen production.

[0006] The technical solution of the present invention is as follows:

[0007] A cost analysis method in the field of wind power hydrogen production, the method comprising:

[0008] The cost structure of acquiring a hydrogen production station;

[0009] The levelized hydrogen production cost model is adopted to calculate the production cost of unit hydrogen over the entire life cycle of the project through the levelized hydrogen production cost.

[0010] Furthermore, the cost structure of the hydrogen production station includes initial investment cost and operation cost.

[0011] Furthermore, the initial investment cost includes civil engineering investment cost and hydrogen production system purchase cost.

[0012] Furthermore, the operating costs include electricity consumption, water consumption, equipment maintenance costs, labor management costs and taxes in the hydrogen production process.

[0013] Furthermore, the levelized hydrogen production cost calculation formula is as follows:

[0014]

[0015] Where LCOH is the unit levelized cost of hydrogen production; C T is the initial investment cost; V R A is the residual value of fixed assets; m and P m are the operating cost and interest in the mth year respectively; H m is the hydrogen production in the mth year; M is the operation time; i is the discount rate, which is the benchmark rate of return of the power industry of 8%.

[0016] Furthermore, the electricity consumption in the hydrogen production process is predicted according to the following formula:

[0017] y(x)=Cx b

[0018] α=1-2 b

[0019] Where C is the technical parameter value of the first year; b is the learning coefficient; α is the fixed learning rate.

[0020] Furthermore, the water consumption fee is determined according to the output of hydrogen produced by electrolyzing water.

[0021] Furthermore, the equipment maintenance fee is a fixed proportion of 3% of the equipment cost.

[0022] Furthermore, the labor management cost is determined according to the number of people and wages at the hydrogen production station.

[0023] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following advantages:

[0024] This paper aims to provide empirical analysis and strategic recommendations for the integrated development of new energy and hydrogen energy in Xinjiang and even the whole country by analyzing the investment cost and operating cost in the field of wind power hydrogen production. Through quantitative analysis, it reveals the economic feasibility of different technical routes, evaluates their competitiveness under current market conditions, and their potential impact on the transformation of the future energy system. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0025] The accompanying drawings generally illustrate various embodiments by way of example and not limitation, and together with the description and claims, serve to illustrate the embodiments of the invention. Where appropriate, the same reference numerals are used throughout the drawings to refer to the same or similar parts. Such embodiments are illustrative and are not intended to be exhaustive or exclusive embodiments of the present apparatus or method.

[0026] Figure 1 The schematic diagram of the cost structure of hydrogen production by electrolysis of water according to the present invention is shown;

[0027] Figure 2 The schematic diagram of the process of producing hydrogen by electrolysis of water according to the present invention is shown;

[0028] Figure 3 A schematic diagram showing the cost distribution of the AWE water electrolysis hydrogen production system of the present invention is shown;

[0029] Figure 4 A schematic diagram showing the cost distribution of the PEM water electrolysis hydrogen production system of the present invention is shown;

[0030] Figure 5 A schematic diagram showing the composition of the operation and maintenance cost of the AWE hydrogen production system of the present invention is shown;

[0031] Figure 6 A schematic diagram showing the composition of the operation and maintenance cost of the PEM hydrogen production system of the present invention is shown;

[0032] Figure 7 A schematic diagram of sensitivity analysis of the AWE hydrogen production technology of the present invention is shown;

[0033] Figure 8 A schematic diagram of sensitivity analysis of the PEM hydrogen production technology of the present invention is shown. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0034] It should be noted that, in the absence of conflict, the embodiments and features in the embodiments of the present application can be combined with each other. The present application will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and in combination with the embodiments.

[0035] The present invention intends to build a wind photovoltaic power plant in Wuchangshi, Xinjiang with a hydrogen production capacity of 20000Nm 3 / h hydrogen production station. The main equipment includes AWE / PEM water electrolysis system, pure water production system, hydrogen storage tank, hydrogen production power supply, pipeline and compressor. A survey of the power market in Wuchangshi, Xinjiang, was conducted, considering the purchase of grid-connected electricity for hydrogen production stations. Based on the cost decomposition method, the unit cost of hydrogen production by water electrolysis is mainly composed of two parts: unit initial investment cost and unit operating cost. The specific cost structure is as follows: Figure 1 The unit initial investment cost includes civil construction costs such as land and plant construction and the purchase cost of the water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment system; the operating cost includes water consumption, electricity consumption, equipment maintenance and labor management costs during the hydrogen production process.

[0036] The Normalized Cost Method (LCOE) is a method used to measure the cost per unit of output over the life cycle of an energy project, taking into account all costs and revenues during construction and operation. In energy projects, the Levelized Cost Analysis Method is widely used, especially in the economic evaluation of grid energy storage systems and wind power hydrogen production projects.

[0037] The Levelized Cost of Hydrogen Production (LCOH) is a method specifically used to evaluate the economic feasibility of hydrogen production projects. LCOH is the total cost of wind power and photovoltaic hydrogen production projects over the entire life cycle divided by the total amount of hydrogen produced during the life cycle to obtain the cost required to produce each unit of hydrogen. Among them, the total cost includes the initial investment cost and operation and maintenance cost, while taking into account the time value of money and the impact of fixed residual value, which is used to compare the economic feasibility of different hydrogen production technologies. The formula for calculating the levelized cost of hydrogen production is as follows:

[0038]

[0039] Where LCOH is the unit levelized cost of hydrogen production; C T is the initial investment cost; V R A is the residual value of fixed assets; m and P m are the operating cost and interest in the mth year respectively; H m is the hydrogen production in the mth year; M is the operation time (25 years is taken in the present invention); i is the discount rate, which is the benchmark rate of return of the power industry of 8%.

[0040] Analyze the economic feasibility of hydrogen production by water electrolysis, from the initial input of electricity to the final generation and storage of 20 MPa high-pressure hydrogen throughout the entire process chain, the specific process is as follows Figure 2As shown. Electricity and pure water are input into the water electrolysis system, hydrogen is produced by electrolysis and stored in a hydrogen storage tank. In order to meet the standards for commercial transportation and sales, hydrogen must also undergo a special compression process, using a compressor to increase its pressure to 20MPa. Therefore, this article selects the production of hydrogen from the input of electricity and pure water and pressurization to 20MPa as the main scenario to analyze the economics. According to the technical route of water electrolysis, the electrolyzer can be either AWE or PEM. In view of this, the present invention focuses on this core process, that is, from the initial input of electricity and pure water until the hydrogen is pressurized to 20MPa, as the main scenario for analyzing its economics. In terms of the technical implementation path, the choice of electrolyzer technology has become an important factor in determining the economy, which includes both AWE and PEM water electrolysis technologies. In order to ensure the wide applicability and accuracy of the economic analysis, the single hydrogen production capacity of the alkaline water electrolyzer is selected to be 1000Nm 3 / h, given the lack of monomer capacity of 1000Nm 3 / h proton exchange membrane electrolyzer, two with a hydrogen production capacity of 500Nm / h 3 The PEM electrolyzers are configured in parallel to achieve a total hydrogen production that matches that of the alkaline electrolyzer, ensuring that the economic comparative analysis under different technical routes is comparable and of practical significance.

[0041] Civil engineering investment

[0042] In the consideration of civil engineering input costs, two key components are mainly covered: one is the land acquisition cost, and the other is the directly related construction project cost. Specifically for the layout planning of the hydrogen production station, the land it occupies is mainly used to build a hydrogen production workshop to meet the core production needs; at the same time, it is also necessary to configure necessary supporting facilities, including but not limited to storage areas, power supply systems and maintenance areas; the control room serves as the command center to ensure the safety and efficiency of the production process; in addition, in order to comply with safety regulations, sufficient safety buffer areas must be reserved to deal with potential risks. According to the estimated scale of a typical hydrogen production station, its total area is about 10 acres. If you choose to build a hydrogen production station around a photovoltaic or wind farm, the land acquisition cost must be based on local policies and market conditions. Referring to the current land acquisition fees or national standards for photovoltaic projects, the acquisition fee for each acre of land is approximately RMB 60,000. Based on this calculation, the total land acquisition cost for the entire hydrogen production station will reach approximately RMB 600,000.

[0043] As for the construction cost, it involves the construction of the hydrogen production workshop, the installation of basic protective facilities to ensure production safety, and the construction of important buildings such as the control room. Given the scale of these projects, the complexity of the design, and the diversity of functional requirements, there is a certain degree of flexibility in the cost budget. Nevertheless, based on the industry average and the cost experience of similar projects in the past, it is preliminarily estimated that the construction investment for the entire hydrogen production plant is approximately RMB 8 million. This budget covers all direct expenses from foundation construction to completion of the building, but the actual cost needs to be adjusted according to the final design plan and market price fluctuations of building materials.

[0044] 3.2 Investment in hydrogen production equipment

[0045] Estimation of key equipment parameters based on learning curve

[0046] In order to make a dynamic prediction of the electrolyzer, a key equipment for green hydrogen production, the prediction model assumes that under the influence of economies of scale and technological development, the technical parameters of the electrolyzer increase or decrease at a certain learning rate. The equation for the technical parameter value y(x) of the electrolyzer in year x is as follows:

[0047] y(x)=Cx b

[0048] α=1-2 b

[0049] Where C is the technical parameter value of the first year; b is the learning coefficient; α is the fixed learning rate. The cost of wind-PV coupled water electrolysis to produce hydrogen is calculated by predicting the technical parameters of AWE and PEM. The technical parameters of AWE and PEM electrolysis devices from 2021 to 2025 estimated by the learning curve are shown in Table 3.

[0050] Table 1 Prediction of technical parameters of electrolysis device

[0051]

[0052] Supporting equipment investment

[0053] In the comprehensive configuration of water electrolysis hydrogen production, key auxiliary equipment includes the following core components: high-performance hydrogen production power supply, pure water preparation facilities, hydrogen storage containers, high-pressure output compressors, and pipelines and automatic control systems to ensure stable operation of the system. 3 / h electrolyzer, based on the calculation that each standard cubic meter of hydrogen produced under full load operation consumes 47.90 kWh of electricity, the required power supply must reach 4.3 megawatts (MW). For this reason, a 5MW hydrogen production power supply based on advanced IGBT technology was selected, with a market price of approximately RMB 1.3 million, to ensure efficient and stable power supply.

[0054] In view of the water consumption in the hydrogen production process, according to the law of mass conservation, the electrolysis reaction consumes about 804 kg of pure water per hour. Therefore, the production capacity of the supporting pure water production system must reach 1m 3 / h to ensure the continuity of the electrolysis process.

[0055] In terms of hydrogen storage, considering that the initial outlet pressure of hydrogen is usually 1.6 MPa, in order to meet the short-term storage and system buffering needs, a capacity of 50 cubic meters (m 3 ) hydrogen storage tanks are sufficient to store 1 hour of hydrogen production, ensuring production flexibility and safety.

[0056] In order to meet the filling requirements of hydrogen transportation, a hydrogen compressor is also required to pressurize the hydrogen to 20MPa, and the effective displacement of the compressor must reach 1000Nm 3 / h; other equipment including instruments, pipelines and centralized control systems are estimated to cost approximately RMB 1 million in total.

[0057] In terms of the selection of water electrolysis system, two mainstream technologies, alkaline electrolyzer (ALK) and proton exchange membrane electrolyzer (PEM), were analyzed and compared. Taking the ALK system as an example, the total cost of equipment purchase and installation is expected to be about RMB 13.84 million, while the total investment in the entire unit hydrogen production system is as high as RMB 22.44 million. The specific details are shown in Table 3. After an in-depth analysis of the cost structure, it is shown that the investment in alkaline electrolyzer equipment accounts for a significant part of the total project cost, reaching 62%; followed closely by the hydrogen compressor, whose cost accounts for about 27%. These two items have become key factors affecting the economic feasibility of the project. The specific distribution can be seen through Figure 3 Intuitive analysis.

[0058] Table 3 ALK hydrogen production system equipment specifications, unit prices and quantities

[0059]

[0060] When the PEM water electrolysis hydrogen production system is selected, the unit price of the PEM electrolyzer is about 22.14 million yuan through forecast data calculation. Since the current single-unit output of PEM has reached 1000Nm 3 / h is less, so two 500Nm 3 / h PEM electrolyzer combination, the fixed equipment investment of the unit water electrolysis system is about 52.88 million yuan, which is nearly twice the investment of the ALK water electrolysis system, as shown in Table 4. Among them, the purchase cost of the proton exchange membrane electrolyzer accounts for 84%, which is the largest equipment cost investment in the fixed investment, and the compressor accounts for 11%, as shown in Table 4. Figure 4 .

[0061] Table 4 PEM hydrogen production system equipment specifications, unit prices and quantities

[0062]

[0063] For a hydrogen production of 1000Nm 3 / h hydrogen production system equipment fixed investment cost analysis found that for a hydrogen production capacity of 1000Nm 3 / h unit hydrogen production system, although the total cost of equipment investment for proton exchange membrane (PEM) based water electrolysis technology is still higher than that of alkaline water electrolysis (ALK) technology, specifically, the estimated cost of PEM is about twice that of ALK, indicating that the proportion of PEM electrolyzer in the cost structure is significantly higher than that of ALK electrolyzer. However, based on the prediction of the learning curve, the cost of PEM electrolysis technology has great potential for decline as the technology matures, large-scale production and process optimization are achieved, indicating that the cost competitiveness in the future is expected to be greatly improved.

[0064] In the application scenario of large-scale hydrogen production, since the capital expenditure of alkaline electrolysis equipment only accounts for 62% of the total system cost, this means that when expanding the scale of production, the additional cost of adopting the ALK technology route is relatively limited and has little impact on the overall cost. On the contrary, when using PEM electrolyzers, the initial equipment investment cost is higher, and the effect of increasing the total cost is more significant. Therefore, when the amount of hydrogen produced is small, the advantages of PEM technology are highlighted, and the proportion of its cost reduction is more obvious, thereby narrowing the gap in fixed investment costs with ALK technology and providing a more economical option for small-scale hydrogen production projects.

[0065] Considering the long-term operation of the electrolyzer, the design life is set at 25 years, and the residual value of the equipment is expected to be 5% of the original value. Based on this, the depreciation of the equipment under the ALK and PEM technology routes is calculated, and the results show that the annual equipment depreciation cost of the ALK technology route is 1.4212 million yuan, while the annual depreciation cost of the PEM technology route is 3.3744 million yuan.

[0066] Equipment operation and maintenance investment

[0067] 1. Power consumption

[0068] The main power consumption of the hydrogen production process includes the power consumption of the electrolyzer for hydrogen production by electrolysis of water and the power consumption of the compressor operation. Referring to the predicted data above, the power consumption of ALK for hydrogen production by electrolysis of water is about 4.09kWh / m 3 The power consumption of PEM water electrolysis to produce hydrogen is 4.28kWh / m 3 , and the change of electrolytic cell power consumption with the life of the electrolytic cell is not considered for the time being. For the power consumption of the hydrogen compressor, 3 The electricity consumption of hydrogen is 0.26kWh. The electricity used in the electrolysis process is purchased in the form of green electricity. Referring to the green electricity price in the "Wuchangshi area" of Xinjiang, the average electricity price for hydrogen production is about 0.3 yuan / kWh.

[0069] 2. Water consumption

[0070] The amount of hydrogen produced by electrolysis of water determines the water consumption of the hydrogen production process. Theoretically, 18 kg of pure water is consumed for every 1 kg of hydrogen produced. The price of industrial water is 4.1 yuan / m 3 According to a rough estimate, the water cost for producing each kilogram of hydrogen is 0.04592 yuan.

[0071] 3. Maintenance costs

[0072] The maintenance costs of the hydrogen production plant are assumed to be calculated at a fixed rate of 3% of the equipment cost. Considering that the electrolyzer will undergo at least one major overhaul during its 25-year service life, it is calculated at 20% of the equipment cost.

[0073] 4. Labor costs

[0074] The hydrogen production plant is staffed in three shifts, with four people per shift and an annual salary of 100,000 yuan per person, for a total annual salary expenditure of 1.2 million yuan.

[0075] Estimation of cost and operation cost of hydrogen production by water electrolysis

[0076] In the planned hydrogen production 20000Nm 3 / h hydrogen production plant, with an annual working time of 8000h, the ALK electrolyzer equipment parameters predicted in 2025 are used for cost calculation, and the levelized cost of hydrogen production in the hydrogen production plant can be calculated to be 1.63 yuan / Nm 3 , the levelized cost of using PEM electrolyzer equipment is calculated to be 2.11 yuan / Nm 3 The specific parameters of various operating costs in the total operating cost are shown in Table 5. From the perspective of cost composition, under the AEL technology route, electricity costs account for 85% of the total operating cost, and depreciation costs account for 14%; under the PEM technology route, electricity costs account for 72%, while depreciation costs reach about 28%. The specific distribution ratios are as follows: Figure 5 , Figure 6 As shown in Figure 2, it can be seen that electricity price and depreciation are the key factors affecting the operating cost of hydrogen production by water electrolysis.

[0077] Table 4-1 Operation and maintenance costs of hydrogen production system

[0078]

[0079] Hydrogen production cost analysis

[0080] The levelized hydrogen production cost calculated from the predicted equipment technical parameters shows that the cost of hydrogen production by PEM water electrolysis is slightly higher than that of ALK water electrolysis technology under the predicted equipment investment cost of 2025. In the scenario of large-scale hydrogen production, if the PEM technology route cannot improve its ability to adapt to fluctuations and reduce comprehensive power consumption, the PEM route will be less economical than the alkaline water electrolysis technology route due to its higher equipment fixed investment cost and operation and maintenance cost than the AWE technology route.

[0081] Regardless of whether ALK or PEM electrolysis technology is selected, in the cost analysis of the two technical routes during the life cycle, the electrolyzer investment cost and electricity cost account for the main part of the fixed investment cost and operating cost respectively. Although from the forecast results, the cost of PEM is decreasing at a very impressive rate, the power consumption of hydrogen production by electrolysis is expected to be reduced to 4.3kWh / m 3 , but the equipment cost still accounts for 84%. According to the above calculation results, it can be concluded that with the continuous development of science and technology in the future, on the road of hydrogen energy development, if PEM water electrolysis technology can further reduce costs in the research and development of key materials, expand the unit hydrogen production capacity of PEM electrolyzers, and reduce the equipment cost of PEM electrolyzers, it can also give play to the advantages of rapid response of proton exchange membrane electrolyzers coupled with the volatility of new energy power plants. In the near future, the levelized hydrogen production cost of the PEM technology route is expected to be reduced to the same level as or even lower than the alkaline water electrolysis technology route. However, from the comparison of the levelized calculation results of hydrogen production at the current stage and forecast data, it is found that compared with PEM water electrolysis technology, the equipment investment cost of alkaline water electrolysis of ALK water electrolysis technology is still lower than that of acidic water electrolysis route. This advantage is more obvious in the scenario of expanding the scale of hydrogen production. At the same time, the power consumption of hydrogen production by alkaline water electrolysis is lower than that of acidic water electrolysis. In 2023, the power consumption of hydrogen production of the Longi ALK HI series produced by Longi Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. has reached 4.3kWh / m 3 Even 4.1kWh / m 3 Below, while the power consumption of hydrogen production by PEM electrolyzer is still at 4.3kWh / m 3 Choosing a technology route with lower power consumption for hydrogen production can bring lower hydrogen production costs. Therefore, the results of the current and 2025 forecast data for hydrogen production by alkaline water electrolysis are compared with the levelized cost of hydrogen produced by proton exchange membrane water electrolysis (2.11 yuan / Nm 3 ), the levelized cost of hydrogen from alkaline water electrolysis (1.63 yuan / Nm 3 ) still has more advantages.

[0082] Hydrogen production cost sensitivity analysis

[0083] According to the data analysis in the previous article, equipment cost and power generation cost are the two core factors affecting the levelized cost of hydrogen production. Therefore, in order to explore the specific impact of the dynamic changes of key equipment parameters over time on the levelized cost of hydrogen production in a deeper level, this paper selects the total power consumption of the hydrogen production process and the electricity price in the region as key variables based on the change trend of the equipment technical parameters in Table 1, and conducts a sensitivity analysis on the levelized cost of the two technical hydrogen production routes in 2025. The analysis results are shown in the figure below. Figure 7 , Figure 8 shown.

[0084] The analysis results show that the changes in electricity consumption and electricity prices have a significant impact on the cost of ALK and PEM hydrogen production. When both electricity consumption and electricity prices drop by 20%, the cost of hydrogen production by alkaline water electrolysis drops by 32.8%, while the cost of hydrogen production by proton exchange membrane water electrolysis drops by 29.3%. The cost of hydrogen production under both technical routes has been significantly reduced with the reduction of electricity consumption and electricity prices. The cost of ALK water electrolysis is only 1.095 yuan / Nm 3 The cost of PEM electrolysis of water is only 1.491 yuan / Nm 3 In the sensitivity analysis of hydrogen production levelization, it can be seen that as electricity consumption increases, the cost of levelized hydrogen production becomes more sensitive to the increase in electricity prices. When electricity consumption increases by 20% and electricity prices increase by 60% to 4.9 yuan / kWh, the costs of the ALK and PEM routes are 2.859 yuan / Nm 3 and 3.334 yuan / Nm 3 , which increased by 75.4% and 58.0% respectively compared with the hydrogen production cost calculated above.

[0085] In-depth analysis of the impact of the relationship between electricity prices, electricity consumption and the levelized cost of hydrogen production shows that electricity consumption accounts for a significant proportion of the overall cost structure, which makes the electricity price almost directly affect the final cost of hydrogen. In addition, the working performance of the electrolyzer is directly related to the efficiency of converting electricity into hydrogen. High-performance electrolyzers can achieve electricity-hydrogen conversion more efficiently, which greatly affects cost-effectiveness. Therefore, continuously optimizing the performance of electrolyzers and improving their energy efficiency are of vital strategic significance for effectively controlling and reducing the levelized cost of hydrogen production. This is not only about cost-effectiveness, but also one of the key factors in promoting the development of the hydrogen economy.

[0086] The wind and photovoltaic power plants in the Wuchangshi area of ​​Xinjiang are coupled with water electrolysis to produce hydrogen. The local grid-connected electricity price is used as the input electricity price. It is planned to build a hydrogen production capacity of 20,000 Nm 3 / h hydrogen production station. The present invention constructs a model of levelized hydrogen production cost based on the cost decomposition method to estimate the cost of ALK and PEM water electrolysis hydrogen production, and dynamically predicts the equipment parameters of key equipment in the green hydrogen production process. The levelized hydrogen production cost is coupled with the dynamic parameters of the equipment, and the levelized hydrogen production cost of the two technical routes of ALK and PEM in 2025 is predicted. The prediction results show that ALK still has a lower hydrogen production cost than PEM in this scenario, and has more economic advantages. However, from the perspective of technological development, new energy power generation technology is becoming more and more perfect, and the manufacturing cost of hydrogen has shown a continuous downward trend during the study period. At the same time, AIK water electrolysis hydrogen production technology is close to a fully mature stage, and its cost reduction space is gradually decreasing. In contrast, PEM electrolysis hydrogen production technology is in a period of rapid development, especially benefiting from the vigorous expansion of the proton exchange membrane battery market and the photovoltaic industry. Photovoltaic integrated PEM hydrogen production technology shows great cost reduction potential, indicating that the future development prospects of this field are broad.

[0087] The above description is only a preferred specific implementation manner of the present invention, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any technician familiar with the technical field can make equivalent replacements or changes according to the technical scheme and inventive concept of the present invention within the technical scope disclosed by the present invention, which should be covered by the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A cost analysis method in the field of wind power hydrogen production, characterized in that: The method comprises: The cost structure of acquiring a hydrogen production station; The levelized hydrogen production cost model is adopted to calculate the production cost of unit hydrogen over the entire life cycle of the project through the levelized hydrogen production cost.

2. The cost analysis method in the field of wind power hydrogen production according to claim 1, characterized in that: The cost structure of the hydrogen production station includes initial investment cost and operation cost.

3. The cost analysis method in the field of wind power hydrogen production according to claim 2, characterized in that: The initial investment cost includes civil engineering investment cost and hydrogen production system purchase cost.

4. The cost analysis method in the field of wind power hydrogen production according to claim 2, characterized in that: The operating costs include electricity consumption, water consumption, equipment maintenance costs, labor management costs and taxes in the hydrogen production process.

5. The cost analysis method in the field of wind power hydrogen production according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation formula of the levelized hydrogen production cost is as follows: Where LCOH is the unit levelized cost of hydrogen production; C T is the initial investment cost; V R A is the residual value of fixed assets; m and P m are the operating cost and interest in the mth year respectively; H m is the hydrogen production in the mth year; M is the operation time; i is the discount rate, which is the benchmark rate of return of the power industry of 8%.

6. The cost analysis method in the field of wind power hydrogen production according to claim 4, characterized in that: The electricity consumption in the hydrogen production process is predicted according to the following formula: y(x)=Cx b α＝1-2 b Where C is the technical parameter value of the first year; b is the learning coefficient; α is the fixed learning rate.

7. The cost analysis method in the field of wind power hydrogen production according to claim 4, characterized in that: The water consumption cost is determined according to the output of hydrogen produced by electrolyzing water.

8. The cost analysis method in the field of wind power hydrogen production according to claim 4, characterized in that: The equipment maintenance fee is a fixed proportion of 3% of the equipment cost.

9. The cost analysis method in the field of wind power hydrogen production according to claim 4, characterized in that: The labor management cost is determined based on the number of people and wages at the hydrogen production station.

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