Safety analysis method of ammunition electronic safety system

Abstract

The invention provides a safety analysis method for an ammunition electronic safety system, which comprises the following steps of: dividing a working process of the electronic safety system into a first stage, namely a stage before a launching period, a second stage, namely a stage in the launching period and a third stage, namely a stage after the launching period and within a safety distance, the method comprises the following steps: determining top events for a first stage, a second stage and a third stage of an electronic safety system, analyzing historical fault data of the electronic safety system, and establishing a basic event tree and a corresponding failure model for the first stage, the second stage and the third stage; according to the working process of the electronic safety system, sub-trees are continuously established for the basic event trees of the first stage, the second stage and the third stage until each event forming the sub-trees is a bottom event, establishment of a final event tree is completed, the occurrence probability of each bottom event is obtained, the occurrence probability of a top event is calculated, and the occurrence probability of the top event is calculated. Safety analysis of the electronic safety system in a complex fault mode can be completed.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of ammunition safety systems, and in particular to a safety analysis method for an ammunition electronic safety system. Background Art

[0002] The safety system is a key component used together with ammunition in the weapon system and plays a vital role. As a control system, it can trigger the detonation or ignition of the warhead charge of the ammunition under specific conditions based on target and environmental information.

[0003] There are many types of safety systems. According to their working principles and modes of action, they can be divided into trigger type, near explosion type, weekly explosion type, timing type, remote control type and multi-function type. In terms of safety performance, they can be divided into isolated detonator type, non-explosion-proof type, isolated percussion cap type and non-isolation mechanism type. In terms of technical characteristics, they are mainly divided into three categories: mechanical safety system, electromechanical safety system and electronic safety system.

[0004] In the design of traditional conventional ammunition safety systems, the arming device and the detonation sequence adopt a "staggered" layout, which means that in addition to the detonator and the booster, other sensitive agents are also included. In order to ensure safety and avoid accidental explosion of pyrotechnics that may lead to the detonation of the main charge, the design requires that the detonator seat and the partition be kept staggered before service handling and firing. This design mostly relies on complex mechanical structures, and mechanical and electromechanical safety systems usually adopt a staggered layout.

[0005] Modern safety systems use an "in-line" design, in which the pyrotechnics in the detonator are less sensitive than traditional pyrotechnics, so the safety mechanism and detonator seat do not need to be misaligned. This design is mainly used in electronic safety systems.

[0006] Electronic safety systems play a vital role in modern weapon systems and are widely used in weapon platforms such as missiles and artillery shells. Their core task is to accurately control the detonation timing and position of ammunition to achieve precise strikes on targets. The electronic safety system integrates a variety of sensors and electronic control units, which can predict the best detonation time based on preset conditions or real-time environmental data, thereby improving the combat efficiency of weapons and reducing the risk of accidental explosions. It can be seen that the safety of electronic safety systems is the key to ensuring the effectiveness of weapon systems and operational safety.

[0007] However, it is difficult to evaluate the safety of electronic safety systems because the integration of electronic safety systems is becoming increasingly higher, components are gradually becoming miniaturized, and the systems are becoming increasingly complex, making it difficult for traditional evaluation methods to identify and prevent diverse failure modes. Therefore, a safety analysis method suitable for electronic safety systems is needed. Summary of the invention

[0008] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a safety analysis method for an ammunition electronic safety system, which can perform safety analysis on the electronic safety system under complex failure modes.

[0009] In order to solve the above problems, the present invention provides a safety analysis method for an ammunition electronic safety system, comprising:

[0010] Step 100: Divide the workflow of the electronic safety system into: a first stage, a second stage and a third stage, wherein the first stage is a stage before the launch cycle, the second stage is a stage within the launch cycle, and the third stage is a stage after the launch cycle and within a safe distance;

[0011] Step 200: determining top events for the first stage, the second stage and the third stage of the electronic safety system respectively, and establishing basic event trees and corresponding failure models for the first stage, the second stage and the third stage in combination with analyzing historical fault data of the electronic safety system;

[0012] Step 300: Continue to establish subtrees for the basic event trees of the first stage, the second stage and the third stage according to the workflow of the electronic security system until each event constituting the subtree is a bottom event, complete the establishment of the final event tree, obtain the occurrence probability of each of the bottom events, and calculate the occurrence probability of the top event.

[0013] Furthermore, in the above-mentioned safety analysis method of the ammunition electronic safety system:

[0014] In the step 200, the top events determined in the first stage include: electronic safety system isolation release before the scheduled insurance release and isolation release process begins, and electronic safety system action before the scheduled insurance release and isolation release process begins;

[0015] When barrel-launched ammunition is used, the top events determined in the second stage include: the electronic safety system of the ammunition fired from the barrel is released from the muzzle, and the electronic safety system of the ammunition fired from the barrel is activated before the ammunition is fired from the muzzle;

[0016] The top events determined in the third stage include: from the initiation of the safety arming and isolation release process or the discharge of the ammunition fired from the barrel to the release of the isolation of the safety separation electronic safety system, and from the initiation of the safety arming and isolation release process or the discharge of the ammunition fired from the barrel to the action of the safety separation electronic safety system.

[0017] Furthermore, in the above-mentioned safety analysis method of the ammunition electronic safety system:

[0018] The top event determined in the first stage is the electronic safety system isolating before the scheduled release of insurance and isolation process begins. The specific structure of the established basic event tree is that the first-level insurance release event, the second-level insurance release event and the third-level isolation release event are connected by sequential AND gates, and the sequential condition is that the first-level insurance release event, the second-level insurance release event and the third-level isolation release event occur in sequence, and the corresponding failure model is:

[0019] T 11 =A 11 B 11 C 11 (1)

[0020] Among them, T 11 Electronic security system de-isolating for the event in question prior to the scheduled de-security and de-isolating process; A 11 Level 1 insurance release for the event described; B 11 Level 2 insurance release for the event described; C 11 The Level 3 quarantine has been lifted for the incident described;

[0021] The top event determined in the first stage is when the electronic safety system acts before the scheduled release and isolation process begins. The specific structure of the established basic event tree is that the electronic safety system releases isolation before the scheduled release and isolation process begins and the high-voltage switch closes. The two events are connected to the gate in sequence and then connected to the impact piece detonator self-explosion through the OR gate. The corresponding failure model is:

[0022] T 12 =x1+(T 11 B 12 ) (2)

[0023] Among them, T 12 The electronic safety system is activated before the scheduled release and isolation process of the event begins; x1 is the self-explosion of the impact piece detonator; T 11 Electronic security system de-isolating for the event before the scheduled de-security and de-isolating process begins; B 12 The high voltage switch is closed for the event.

[0024] Furthermore, in the above-mentioned safety analysis method of the ammunition electronic safety system:

[0025] When barrel firing is adopted, the top event determined in the second stage is when the electronic safety system of the barrel-fired ammunition is released from the muzzle before the isolation, including three situations, namely:

[0026] The first case: the first-level safety, the second-level safety and the third-level isolation are all located outside the muzzle; the failure mode of the electronic safety system isolating the ammunition fired from the barrel before it exits the muzzle is: the first-level safety is released, the second-level safety is released, and the third-level isolation is released;

[0027] The second situation: the first-level safety is released in the chamber, and the second-level safety and the third-level isolation are both released outside the muzzle; the failure mode of the electronic safety system releasing the isolation before the ammunition fired from the barrel is: the first-level safety is released (the probability of occurrence is 1), the second-level safety is released, and the third-level isolation is released;

[0028] The third situation: the first-level safety and the second-level safety are released in the chamber, and the third-level isolation is released outside the muzzle; the failure mode of the electronic safety system releasing the isolation before the ammunition fired from the barrel is: the first-level safety is released (the probability of occurrence is 1), the second-level safety is released (the probability of occurrence is 1), and the third-level isolation is released;

[0029] The specific structure of the basic event tree established in the first case is that the electronic safety system accidentally releases the first-level insurance, the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation before the event is discharged, and the electronic safety system releases isolation before the predetermined release and isolation process begins through the OR gate, and the specific structure of the electronic safety system accidentally releasing the first-level insurance, the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation before the event is discharged is connected by the first-level insurance release event, the second-level insurance release event and the third-level isolation release event through the sequential AND gate, and the sequential condition is that the first-level insurance release, the second-level insurance release and the third-level isolation release occur in sequence, and the corresponding failure model is:

[0030] T 21 =A 211 +T 11 =(B 21 C 21 D 21 )+T 11 (3)

[0031] Among them, T 21 To release the electronic safety system before the ammunition fired from the event barrel leaves the muzzle; A 211 The electronic safety system accidentally releases the first level insurance, second level insurance and third level isolation before the event; B 21 The first level of insurance release for the event; C 21 The second level insurance release for the event; D 21 The quarantine has been lifted for the incident level 3; T 11 Electronic security system de-isolating for incidents prior to scheduled de-security and de-isolating procedures;

[0032] The specific structure of the basic event tree established in the second case is that the electronic safety system accidentally releases the first-level insurance, the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation before the event is discharged, and is connected to the electronic safety system isolation release before the scheduled insurance release and isolation release process starts through the OR gate, and the specific structure of the electronic safety system accidentally releasing the first-level insurance, the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation before the event is discharged is connected by the event first-level insurance has been released, the event second-level insurance has been released and the event third-level isolation has been released through the AND gate in sequence, and the sequence condition is that the first-level insurance has been released, the second-level insurance has been released and the third-level isolation has been released in sequence, and the corresponding failure model is:

[0033]

[0034] Among them, A 212 The electronic safety system had released the first level of safety before the incident, and accidentally released the second level of safety and the third level of isolation; The first level insurance for the event has been released;

[0035] The specific structure of the basic event tree established in the third case is that the electronic safety system has released the first-level insurance and the second-level insurance before the event is fired, and the electronic safety system accidentally releases the third-level isolation, which is connected to the electronic safety system release isolation before the scheduled release and isolation release process begins through the OR gate, and the electronic safety system has released the first-level insurance and the second-level insurance before the event is fired, and the electronic safety system accidentally releases the third-level isolation by the event first-level insurance has been released, the event second-level insurance has been released, and the event third-level isolation is released through the AND gate in sequence, and the sequence condition is that the first-level insurance release has been released, the second-level insurance has been released, and the third-level isolation release occurs in sequence, and the corresponding failure model is:

[0036]

[0037] Among them, A 213 The electronic safety system had released the first and second level safety before the incident; the electronic safety system accidentally released the third level isolation; The first level insurance for the event has been released; Level 2 insurance has been released for this event.

[0038] Furthermore, in the above-mentioned safety analysis method of the ammunition electronic safety system:

[0039] When barrel firing is adopted, the top event determined in the second stage is when the electronic safety system of the ammunition fired from the barrel acts before it exits the muzzle. The specific structure is that the event of the impact piece detonator self-explosion and the event of the impact piece detonator being exploded are connected through an OR gate, and the event of the impact piece detonator being exploded is connected through an OR gate through the event of the electronic safety system of the ammunition fired from the barrel being released from the muzzle and the event of the high-voltage switch being closed through the sequence and connected to the gate. The sequence condition is that the electronic safety system of the ammunition fired from the barrel being released from the muzzle and the event of the high-voltage switch being closed occur in sequence, and the corresponding failure model is:

[0040] T 22 =x1+A 22 =x1+(T 21 B 22 )(6)

[0041] Among them, T 22 The electronic safety system of the ammunition fired from the event barrel before it leaves the muzzle; x1 is the self-explosion of the event impact piece detonator; A 22 The impact piece detonator was blown up; T 21 To release the electronic safety system before the ammunition fired from the event barrel leaves the muzzle; B 22 The high voltage switch is closed for the event.

[0042] Furthermore, in the above-mentioned safety analysis method of the ammunition electronic safety system:

[0043] The top events determined in the third stage are from the start of the release of insurance and isolation release process to the release of isolation of the safety separation electronic safety system, which are:

[0044] Case 1: The first-level safety, second-level safety and third-level isolation release are all outside the safety separation process; the failure mode from the start of the safety release and isolation release process or the exit of the ammunition fired from the barrel to the isolation release of the safety separation electronic safety system is: first-level safety release, second-level safety release, and third-level isolation release;

[0045] Case 2: Both the second-level safety and the third-level isolation release are outside the safety separation process; the failure mode from the start of the safety release and isolation release process or the exit of the ammunition fired from the barrel to the isolation release of the safety separation electronic safety system is: the first-level safety is released (the probability of occurrence is 1), the second-level safety is released, and the third-level isolation is released;

[0046] Case 3: The third level isolation release is outside the safety separation process; the failure modes from the start of the safety release and isolation release process or the exit of the ammunition fired from the barrel to the safety separation electronic safety system isolating: the first level safety has been released (the probability of occurrence is 1), the second level safety has been released (the probability of occurrence is 1), and the third level isolation is released;

[0047] The specific structure of the basic event tree established in the first case is that the first-level insurance, the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation are released in advance within the event safety distance, and the electronic safety system releases the isolation before the ammunition fired from the barrel of the event is connected through an OR gate, and the first-level insurance, the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation are released in advance within the event safety distance by the event first-level insurance early release, the event second-level insurance early release and the event third-level insurance early release through the sequence AND gate, and the sequence condition is that the first-level insurance, the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation are released in advance within the event safety distance by the event first-level insurance early release, the event second-level insurance early release and the event third-level insurance early release occur in sequence, and the corresponding failure model is:

[0048] T 31 =A 311 +T 21 =(B 31 C 31 D 31 )+T 21 (7)

[0049] Among them, T 31 De-isolating electronic security systems from initiating the arming and de-isolating process to safely disengaging them for an incident; 311 To lift the first level insurance, second level insurance and third level isolation in advance within the safety distance of the incident; T 21 To release the electronic safety system before the ammunition fired from the event barrel leaves the muzzle; B 31 Early release of the first level insurance for the event; C 31 The second level insurance of the event is released in advance; D 31 Early release of insurance for level 3 events;

[0050] The specific structure of the basic event tree established in the second case is that the event of releasing the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation in advance within the safety distance and the electronic safety system of the ammunition fired from the barrel before the muzzle is released are connected through an OR gate, and the event of releasing the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation in advance within the safety distance is connected by the event of the first-level insurance being released, the event of the second-level insurance being released in advance, and the event of the third-level isolation being released in advance through the sequence AND gate, and the sequence condition is that the event of releasing the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation in advance within the safety distance is caused by the event of the first-level insurance being released, the event of the second-level insurance being released in advance, and the event of the third-level isolation being released in advance. The corresponding failure model is:

[0051]

[0052] Among them, A 312 Early lifting of Level 2 insurance and Level 3 isolation within a safe distance of the incident; The first level insurance for the event has been released;

[0053] The specific structure of the basic event tree established in the third case is that the event of releasing the third-level isolation in advance within the safety distance and the electronic safety system of the ammunition fired from the barrel before the muzzle are released are connected through an OR gate, wherein the event of releasing the third-level isolation in advance within the safety distance is connected by the event of the first-level insurance being released, the event of the second-level insurance being released, and the event of the third-level isolation being released in advance through the sequence AND gate, and the sequence condition is that the event of the first-level insurance being released, the event of the second-level insurance being released, and the event of the third-level isolation being released in advance occur in sequence, and the corresponding failure model is:

[0054]

[0055] Among them, A 313 Lift Level 3 quarantine ahead of schedule for incident safety distance; The first level insurance for the event has been released; Level 2 insurance has been released for this event.

[0056] Furthermore, in the above-mentioned safety analysis method of the ammunition electronic safety system:

[0057] The top event determined in the third stage is from the start of the release and isolation process or the discharge of the ammunition fired from the barrel to the action of the safety separation electronic safety system. The specific structure of the basic event tree is established as the event of the impact piece detonator self-explosion and the event of the impact piece detonator being exploded are connected through an OR gate, wherein the event of the impact piece detonator being exploded is connected by the event from the start of the release and isolation process or the discharge of the ammunition fired from the barrel to the safety separation electronic safety system de-isolation and the event of the high-voltage switch closing through the sequence AND gate, and the sequence condition is that the event occurs in sequence from the start of the release and isolation process or the discharge of the ammunition fired from the barrel to the safety separation electronic safety system de-isolation and the event of the high-voltage switch closing, and the corresponding failure model is:

[0058] T 32 =x1+A 32 =x1+(T 31 B 32 )(10)

[0059] Among them, T 32 The event is from the start of the arming and isolation process or the ammunition fired from the barrel to the safety separation of the electronic safety system; x1 is the event of the impact piece detonator self-explosion; A 32 The impact piece detonator was blown up; T 31 De-isolating the electronic safety system for events from the initiation of the arming and de-isolating process or the exit of a barrel-fired ammunition to the safe separation; B 32 The high voltage switch is closed for the event.

[0060] Furthermore, in the above-mentioned safety analysis method of the ammunition electronic safety system:

[0061] In step 300, if the final event tree does not contain repeated or identical bottom events, and the bottom events are independent of each other, the occurrence probability of the top event is calculated according to the event tree structure;

[0062] When the AND gate is used for connection, the probability of the top event is:

[0063]

[0064] Among them, P(T) is the probability of occurrence of the top event; q i is the probability of occurrence of the ith (i=1, 2, 3, ..., n) bottom event;

[0065] When the OR gate connection is used, the probability of the top event occurring is:

[0066]

[0067] If the final event tree contains the bottom events that appear repeatedly, the minimum cut set method is used to calculate the probability of occurrence of the top event. Some of the bottom events appear repeatedly in the minimum cut sets, and the minimum cut sets have intersections. The equivalent tree of the minimum cut sets is used to represent the final event tree, so

[0068]

[0069] Among them, T is the top event; A r is the rth (i=1, 2, 3, ..., n) minimum cut set;

[0070] The probability of the top event occurring is:

[0071]

[0072] Among them, r, s, k are the minimum cut set numbers, and r<s<k; x i ∈A r is the i-th bottom event x belonging to the r-th minimum cut set i ;x i ∈A r ∪A s is the i-th bottom event belonging to the s-th or r-th minimum cut set.

[0073] The above technical solution of the present invention has the following beneficial technical effects:

[0074] A systematic electronic safety system safety event tree analysis process has been established, covering the entire life cycle of the electronic safety system from manufacturing to safety separation. This full life cycle analysis method helps designers to conduct safety assessments on the system in the early stages of design and identify potential failure modes and weak links through event tree analysis. This not only improves the systematic nature of safety assessments, but also provides data support for design and improvement, enabling designers to discover and resolve potential problems earlier.

[0075] The electronic safety system can identify and evaluate complex failure modes through the interaction of sensors, control modules and other electronic components. For example, in the safety separation stage, the present invention can identify the potential failure modes of electronic components such as acceleration sensors, explosion switches, transistors, etc. to deal with complex failure modes.

[0076] Through the event tree analysis of the present invention, not only can the failure probability of the electronic safety system at each stage be quantified, but also the key components that cause the system failure and their interrelationships can be accurately identified. For example, in the stage of electronic safety system release isolation, the present invention can accurately calculate the impact of the failure of components such as dynamic switches, controllers, and optical couplers on the system. This precise analysis method can provide designers with a quantitative basis and help improve the overall safety of the system.

[0077] The prior art usually conducts safety assessment only in the later stage of electronic safety system design, but the present invention uses the event tree model to allow safety analysis to be involved in the early stage of design. By identifying potential failure modes at an early stage, designers can improve system design more targetedly, thereby reducing the occurrence of safety problems in the later stage and reducing risks. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0078] Figure 1 is a block diagram of an electronic security system according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0079] Figure 2 is a flowchart of the electronic security system of the embodiment shown in the present invention;

[0080] Figure 3 is a flow chart of an embodiment of the present invention;

[0081] Figure 4 The top event of the first stage of the embodiment of the present invention is a basic event tree diagram of electronic safety system isolation release before the start of the predetermined insurance release and isolation release process;

[0082] Figure 5 The top event of the first stage of the embodiment of the present invention is a basic event tree diagram of the electronic safety system before the start of the predetermined release insurance and release isolation process;

[0083] Figure 6 It is a basic event tree diagram of the first situation when the top event of the second stage of the embodiment shown in the present invention is the electronic safety system is released from the muzzle before the ammunition fired from the barrel is discharged;

[0084] Figure 7 It is a basic event tree diagram of the second situation when the top event of the second stage of the embodiment shown in the present invention is the electronic safety system is released from the muzzle before the ammunition fired from the barrel is discharged;

[0085] Figure 8 It is a basic event tree diagram of the third situation when the top event of the second stage of the embodiment shown in the present invention is the electronic safety system is released from the muzzle before the ammunition fired from the barrel is discharged;

[0086] Fig. 9 It is a schematic diagram of a basic event tree when the top event of the second stage of the embodiment shown in the present invention is the action of the electronic safety system before the ammunition fired from the barrel exits the muzzle;

[0087] Fig.10 The top event of the third stage of the embodiment shown in the present invention is a basic event tree diagram of the first situation from starting the release of insurance and release of isolation process to the release of isolation of the safe separation electronic safety system;

[0088] Fig.11 The top event of the third stage of the embodiment shown in the present invention is a basic event tree diagram of the second situation from starting the release of insurance and release of isolation process to the release of isolation of the safe separation electronic safety system;

[0089] Fig.12 The top event of the third stage of the embodiment shown in the present invention is a basic event tree diagram of the third situation from starting the release of insurance and release of isolation process to the release of isolation of the safe separation electronic safety system;

[0090] Fig.13 It is a basic event tree diagram of the top event of the third stage of the embodiment shown in the present invention from the start of the release of the safety and isolation process or the exit of the ammunition fired from the barrel to the action of the safety separation electronic safety system;

[0091] Fig.14 The top event of the first stage of the embodiment of the present invention is a final event tree diagram of electronic safety system isolation release before the start of the predetermined insurance release and isolation release process;

[0092] Fig.15 The top event of the first stage of the embodiment of the present invention is a schematic diagram of the final event tree of the electronic safety system before the start of the predetermined release insurance and release isolation process;

[0093] Fig.16The top event of the third stage of the embodiment shown in the present invention is a schematic diagram of the final event tree from starting the release of insurance and release of isolation process to the release of isolation of the safe separation electronic safety system. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0094] In order to make the purpose, technical scheme and advantages of the present invention clearer, the present invention is further described in detail below in conjunction with specific embodiments and with reference to the accompanying drawings. It should be understood that these descriptions are only exemplary and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. In addition, in the following description, the description of well-known structures and technologies is omitted to avoid unnecessary confusion of the concept of the present invention.

[0095] The embodiments of the present invention will be described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0096] The structural diagram of the electronic safety system is as follows Figure 1 As shown, it specifically includes an input-output interface conversion component, a safety logic control component, a high-voltage conversion component, a high-voltage detonation component and an impact piece detonator. The first sensor, the second sensor and the third sensor are used to monitor the external environment. The communication module is used to transmit environmental information between the controller and the outside world. The first controller and the second controller are responsible for the logic control and signal processing of the electronic safety system. The first static switch, the second static switch and the dynamic switch are used to control the conduction and disconnection of the circuit to ensure that the high-voltage capacitor is charged at the appropriate time. The boost module is used to charge the high-voltage capacitor to maintain the voltage stability of the high-voltage capacitor. The feedback circuit is used to monitor the charging and discharging of the high-voltage capacitor and provide feedback to ensure that the voltage of the high-voltage capacitor is stable after the insurance is released. The trigger circuit is used to release the high voltage of the high-voltage capacitor, thereby detonating the impact piece detonator.

[0097] refer to Figure 2 , is the workflow diagram of the electronic safety system, first perform a power-on self-test, then determine whether the first controller receives the first environmental excitation signal received by the first sensor within the time period, if not, terminate the release, if yes, close the first static switch, and continue to determine whether the second controller receives the second environmental excitation signal received by the second sensor within the time period, if not, terminate the release, if yes, close the second static switch, then determine whether the first controller receives the third environmental excitation signal for release transmitted by the communication module within the time period, if not, terminate the release, if yes, trigger the dynamic switch to let the high-voltage capacitor enter the charging state, then determine whether the voltage of the high-voltage capacitor reaches the explosion value, if not, continue to trigger the dynamic switch to let the high-voltage capacitor enter the charging state, if yes, determine whether the second controller receives the detonation signal transmitted by the third sensor or the explosion switch within the time period, if not, wait until the third sensor or the explosion switch receives the detonation signal, if yes, connect the trigger circuit to discharge the high-voltage capacitor and detonate the impact piece detonator.

[0098] The workflow of the electronic safety system can be roughly divided into three stages, namely: 1. The pre-launch cycle stage, that is, before the scheduled safety release and isolation release process begins, the failure rate of preventing the electronic safety system from being released or activated in this stage should not be greater than one in one million; 2. The launch cycle stage, that is, before the ammunition is ejected from the muzzle when using barrel firing or barrel firing and from the start of safety release, the failure rate of preventing the electronic safety system from being released from the muzzle in this stage should not be greater than one in ten thousand; 3. The post-launch cycle and within the safe distance stage, that is, the isolation release process or the ammunition ejected from the muzzle to safe separation from the barrel firing, the failure rate of preventing the electronic safety system from being activated in this stage should not be greater than one in one million.

[0099] refer to Figure 3 The safety analysis method of the ammunition electronic safety system shown in this embodiment specifically includes the following steps:

[0100] Step 100: Divide the workflow of the electronic safety system into: the first stage, the second stage and the third stage, wherein the first stage is the stage before the launch cycle, the second stage is the stage within the launch cycle, and the third stage is the stage after the launch cycle and within the safe distance.

[0101] Step 200: determine the top events for the first stage, the second stage and the third stage of the electronic safety system respectively, analyze the historical fault data of the electronic safety system, and establish basic event trees and corresponding failure models for the first stage, the second stage and the third stage.

[0102] In this embodiment, the top events that can be determined in the first stage include: the electronic safety system is released from isolation before the scheduled safety release and isolation release process starts, and the electronic safety system is activated before the scheduled safety release and isolation release process starts.

[0103] The top event is when the electronic safety system releases isolation before the scheduled release of insurance and isolation process begins, which directly manifests as charging of the high-voltage capacitor. The direct factors causing the charging include the closing of the first static switch (i.e., the release of the first-level insurance), the closing of the second static switch (i.e., the release of the second-level insurance), and the dynamic switch action (i.e., the release of the third-level isolation). Therefore, the basic event tree is established as follows: Figure 4 As shown in the figure, the specific structure is that the first-level insurance release event, the second-level insurance release event and the third-level isolation release event are connected through a sequential AND gate. The sequential condition is that the first-level insurance release, the second-level insurance release and the third-level isolation release occur in sequence. The corresponding failure model is:

[0104] T 11 =A 11 B 11 C 11 (1)

[0105] Among them, T 11 Electronic security system de-isolating for an event before the scheduled de-security and de-isolating process begins; A 11 The first level of insurance release for the event; B 11 The insurance for the second level of the event is released; C 11 The incident has been released from quarantine at level 3.

[0106] The top event is when the electronic safety system acts before the scheduled release and isolation process begins, which is directly manifested as the explosion of the impact piece detonator. Specifically, it includes two failure modes: self-explosion and explosion. The prerequisite for the explosion failure mode is that the electronic safety system is released before the scheduled release and isolation process begins, and then the high-voltage switch is closed to detonate the impact piece detonator. The basic event tree established is as follows Figure 5 As shown, the specific structure is that before the scheduled release of insurance and release of isolation process begins, the two events of electronic safety system release of isolation and high-voltage switch closing are connected to the gate in sequence and then connected to the event of impact piece detonator self-explosion through the OR gate. The corresponding failure model is:

[0107] T 12 =x1+(T 11 B 12 )(2)

[0108] Among them, T 12 The electronic safety system is activated before the scheduled release and isolation process of the event begins; x1 is the self-explosion of the impact piece detonator of the event; T 11 Electronic security system de-isolating for the event before the scheduled de-insurance and de-isolating process begins; B 12 The high voltage switch is closed for the event.

[0109] In the second stage, either barrel-fired ammunition or barrel-fired ammunition can be used. In the present embodiment, only barrel-fired ammunition is analyzed, so the top events that can be determined in the second stage include: the electronic safety system is released from isolation before the barrel-fired ammunition leaves the muzzle, and the electronic safety system is activated before the barrel-fired ammunition leaves the muzzle.

[0110] The top event is when the electronic safety system is released before the ammunition fired from the barrel leaves the muzzle, including three situations:

[0111] 1. The first-level safety, second-level safety and third-level isolation release are all located outside the muzzle; the failure mode of the electronic safety system releasing the isolation before the ammunition fired from the barrel exits the muzzle is: first-level safety release, second-level safety release, and third-level isolation release.

[0112] 2. The first-level safety is released inside the chamber, and the second-level safety and third-level isolation are both released outside the muzzle. The failure mode of the electronic safety system releasing the isolation before the ammunition fired from the barrel exits the muzzle is: the first-level safety is released (the probability of occurrence is 1), the second-level safety is released, and the third-level isolation is released.

[0113] 3. The first-level safety and the second-level safety are released inside the chamber, and the third-level isolation is released outside the muzzle. The failure modes of the electronic safety system releasing the isolation before the ammunition fired from the barrel exits the muzzle are: the first-level safety has been released (the probability of occurrence is 1), the second-level safety has been released (the probability of occurrence is 1), and the third-level isolation is released.

[0114] The basic event tree established for the first case is as follows Figure 6 As shown, the specific structure is that the electronic safety system accidentally releases the first-level insurance, the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation before the event is discharged, and the electronic safety system releases isolation before the scheduled release and isolation process begins, and the specific structure of the electronic safety system accidentally releasing the first-level insurance, the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation before the event is discharged is connected by the first-level insurance release event, the second-level insurance release event and the third-level isolation release event through the sequential AND gate, and the sequential condition is that the first-level insurance release, the second-level insurance release and the third-level isolation release occur in sequence, and the corresponding failure model is:

[0115] T 21 =A 211 +T 11 =(B 21 C 21 D 21 )+T 11 (3)

[0116] Among them, T 21 To release the electronic safety system before the ammunition fired from the event barrel leaves the muzzle; A 211 The electronic safety system accidentally releases the first level insurance, second level insurance and third level isolation before the event; B 21 The first level of insurance release for the event; C 21 The second level insurance release for the event; D 21 The quarantine has been lifted for the incident level 3; T 11 Electronic security system de-isolating for an incident prior to scheduled de-security and de-isolating procedures.

[0117] The basic event tree established for the second case is as follows Figure 7As shown, the specific structure is that the electronic safety system accidentally releases the first-level insurance, the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation before the event is discharged, and is connected to the electronic safety system isolation release before the scheduled insurance release and isolation release process starts through an OR gate, and the specific structure of the electronic safety system accidentally releasing the first-level insurance, the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation before the event is discharged is connected by the event first-level insurance has been released, the event second-level insurance has been released and the event third-level isolation has been released through the AND gate in sequence, and the sequence condition is that the first-level insurance has been released, the second-level insurance has been released and the third-level isolation has been released in sequence, and the corresponding failure model is:

[0118]

[0119] Among them, A 212 The electronic safety system had released the first level of safety before the incident, and accidentally released the second level of safety and the third level of isolation; Level 1 insurance for the event has been released.

[0120] The basic event tree established for the third case is as follows Figure 8 As shown, the specific structure is that the electronic safety system has released the first-level insurance and the second-level insurance before the event is discharged, and the electronic safety system accidentally releases the third-level isolation, which is connected to the electronic safety system release isolation before the scheduled release and isolation process begins through the OR gate, and the electronic safety system has released the first-level insurance and the second-level insurance before the event is discharged, and the electronic safety system accidentally releases the third-level isolation by the event first-level insurance has been released, the event second-level insurance has been released, and the event third-level isolation is released through the AND gate in sequence, and the sequence condition is that the first-level insurance release has been released, the second-level insurance has been released, and the third-level isolation release occurs in sequence, and the corresponding failure model is:

[0121]

[0122] Among them, A 213 The electronic safety system had released the first and second level safety before the incident, and the electronic safety system accidentally released the third level isolation; The first level insurance for the event has been released; Level 2 insurance has been released for this event.

[0123] When the top event is the action of the electronic safety system before the ammunition fired from the barrel exits the muzzle, it is directly manifested as the explosion of the impact piece detonator, which specifically includes two failure modes: self-explosion and explosion. The prerequisite for explosion is that the electronic safety system before the ammunition fired from the barrel exits the muzzle is released from isolation, and then the high-voltage switch is closed to detonate the impact piece detonator. The basic event tree established is as follows Fig. 9As shown, the specific structure is that the event impact piece detonator self-explosion and the event impact piece detonator explosion are connected through an OR gate, and the event impact piece detonator explosion is connected through an OR gate through the electronic safety system isolation release and event high-voltage switch closure before the ammunition fired from the event barrel is discharged from the muzzle through the sequence AND gate, and its sequence condition is that the electronic safety system isolation release and event high-voltage switch closure occur in sequence before the ammunition fired from the event barrel is discharged from the muzzle, and the corresponding failure model is:

[0124] T 22 =x1+A 22 =x1+(T 21 B 22 )(6)

[0125] Among them, T 22 The electronic safety system of the ammunition fired from the event barrel before it leaves the muzzle; x1 is the self-explosion of the event impact piece detonator; A 22 The impact piece detonator was blown up; T 21 To release the electronic safety system before the ammunition fired from the event barrel leaves the muzzle; B 22 The high voltage switch is closed for the event.

[0126] The top events that can be identified in the third phase include: from the initiation of the arming and de-isolating process to the de-isolating of the safety separation electronic safety system, and from the initiation of the arming and de-isolating process or the exit of the ammunition fired from the barrel to the action of the safety separation electronic safety system.

[0127] When the top event is from the start of the release of insurance and isolation process to the release of isolation of the safety separation electronic safety system, there are three situations, namely:

[0128] 1. The first-level safety, second-level safety and third-level isolation release are all located outside the safety separation process; the failure modes from the initiation of the safety release and isolation release process or the exit of the ammunition fired from the barrel to the isolation release of the safety separation electronic safety system are: first-level safety release, second-level safety release, and third-level isolation release.

[0129] 2. The second-level safety and the third-level isolation release are both outside the safety separation process; the failure modes from the initiation of the safety release and isolation release process or the exit of the ammunition fired from the barrel to the isolation release of the safety separation electronic safety system are: the first-level safety has been released (the probability of occurrence is 1), the second-level safety has been released, and the third-level isolation has been released.

[0130] 3. The third level isolation release is outside the safety separation process; the failure modes from the initiation of the safety release and isolation release process or the exit of the ammunition fired from the barrel to the safety separation electronic safety system releasing the isolation are: the first level safety has been released (the probability of occurrence is 1), the second level safety has been released (the probability of occurrence is 1), and the third level isolation is released.

[0131] The basic event tree established for the first case is as follows Fig. 9 As shown, the specific structure is that the first-level insurance, the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation are released in advance within the event safety distance, and the electronic safety system releases the isolation before the ammunition fired from the barrel of the event is connected through an OR gate, and the first-level insurance, the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation are released in advance within the event safety distance by the event first-level insurance early release, the event second-level insurance early release and the event third-level insurance early release through the sequence AND gate, and the sequence condition is that the first-level insurance, the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation are released in advance within the event safety distance by the event first-level insurance early release, the event second-level insurance early release and the event third-level insurance early release in sequence, and the corresponding failure model is:

[0132] T 31 =A 311 +T 21 =(B 31 C 31 D 31 )+T 21 (7)

[0133] Among them, T 31 De-isolating electronic security systems from initiating the arming and de-isolating process to safely disengaging them for an incident; 311 To lift the first level insurance, second level insurance and third level isolation in advance within the safety distance of the incident; T 21 To release the electronic safety system before the ammunition fired from the event barrel leaves the muzzle; B 31 Early release of the first level insurance for the event; C 31 The second level insurance of the event is released in advance; D 31 The insurance for the Level 3 event was released early.

[0134] The basic event tree established for the second situation is as follows Fig.10 As shown, the specific structure is that the early release of the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation within the event safety distance and the electronic safety system release isolation before the ammunition fired from the barrel of the event are connected through an OR gate, and the early release of the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation within the event safety distance is connected through a sequential AND gate by the event that the first-level insurance has been released, the second-level insurance of the event is released in advance, and the third-level isolation of the event is released in advance. The sequence condition is that the early release of the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation within the event safety distance is caused by the event that the first-level insurance has been released, the second-level insurance of the event is released in advance, and the third-level isolation of the event is released in advance. The corresponding failure model is:

[0135]

[0136] Among them, A 312Early lifting of Level 2 insurance and Level 3 isolation within a safe distance of the incident; Level 1 insurance for the event has been released.

[0137] The basic event tree established for the third situation is as follows Fig.11 As shown in FIG. 1 , the specific structure is that the event of releasing the third-level isolation in advance within the safety distance and the event of releasing the isolation of the electronic safety system before the ammunition fired from the barrel is connected through an OR gate, wherein the event of releasing the third-level isolation in advance within the safety distance is connected by the event of the first-level insurance being released, the event of the second-level insurance being released, and the event of the third-level isolation being released in advance through the sequence AND gate, and the sequence condition is that the event of the first-level insurance being released, the event of the second-level insurance being released, and the event of the third-level isolation being released in advance occur in sequence, and the corresponding failure model is:

[0138]

[0139] Among them, A 313 Lift Level 3 quarantine ahead of schedule for incident safety distance; The first level insurance for the event has been released; Level 2 insurance has been released for this event.

[0140] When the top event is from the start of the safety release and isolation release process or the ammunition fired from the barrel to the safety separation electronic safety system, it is directly manifested as the explosion of the impact piece detonator. The impact piece detonator has two failure modes: self-explosion and explosion. The prerequisite for the explosion of the impact piece detonator is from the start of the safety release and isolation release process or the ammunition fired from the barrel to the safety separation electronic safety system to release the isolation, and then the high-voltage switch is closed to detonate the impact piece detonator. The basic event tree established is as follows Fig.12 As shown, the specific structure is that the event impact piece detonator self-explosion and the event impact piece detonator explosion are connected through an OR gate, wherein the event impact piece detonator explosion is connected through a sequence AND gate from the event starting the release of the insurance and isolation process or the ammunition fired from the barrel to the safety separation electronic safety system to release the isolation and the event high-voltage switch is closed, and its sequence condition is that the event occurs in sequence from the start of the release of the insurance and isolation process or the ammunition fired from the barrel to the safety separation electronic safety system to release the isolation and the event high-voltage switch is closed, and the corresponding failure model is:

[0141] T 32 =x1+A 32 =x1+(T 31 B 32 )(10)

[0142] Among them, T 32 The event is from the start of the arming and isolation process or the ammunition fired from the barrel to the safety separation of the electronic safety system; x1 is the event of the impact piece detonator self-explosion; A32 The impact piece detonator was blown up; T 31 De-isolating the electronic safety system for events from the initiation of the arming and de-isolating process or the exit of a barrel-fired ammunition to the safe separation; B 32 The high voltage switch is closed for the event.

[0143] Step 300: According to the workflow of the electronic security system, the basic event trees of the first stage, the second stage and the third stage are continued to establish subtrees until each event constituting the subtree is a bottom event, the establishment of the final event tree is completed, the occurrence probability of each bottom event is obtained, and the occurrence probability of the top event is calculated.

[0144] In this embodiment, the final event tree is established for the top event in the first stage that the electronic safety system releases isolation before the predetermined arming and isolation procedures begin and the top event that the electronic safety system acts before the predetermined arming and isolation procedures begin.

[0145] The top event is the final event tree of the electronic safety system de-isolating before the scheduled de-arming and de-isolating process begins. Fig.13 The event names and occurrence probabilities are shown in Table 1.

[0146] Table 1

[0147]

[0148]

[0149]

[0150] The corresponding failure model is:

[0151] T 11 =x1A 11 B 11 C 11 (11)

[0152] Among them: A 11 , B 11 and C 11 The calculation formula is:

[0153] A 11 =(x2+x3+x4+x5+x6)+(x 16 +x 17 +x 18 )+(x 24 +x 25 +x 26 )+(x 30 +x 31 +x 32 +x 33 +x34 +x 35 )

[0154] B 11 =(x7+x8+x9+x 10 +x 11 )+(x 19 +x 20 +x 21 )+(x 27 +x 28 +x 29 )+(x 36 +x 37 +x 38 +x 39 +x 40 +x 41 )

[0155] C 11 =(x 12 +x 13 +x 14 +x 15 )+(x 22 +x 23 )+(x 24 +x 25 +x 26 )+(x 42 +x 43 +x 44 )

[0156] The top event is the final event tree of the electronic safety system before the scheduled arming and de-isolating process begins. Fig.14 The event names and occurrence probabilities are shown in Table 2.

[0157] Table 2

[0158]

[0159] The corresponding failure model is:

[0160] T 12 =x1+T 11 B 12 (12)

[0161] Among them, B 12 The calculation formula is:

[0162] B 12 =(x2+x3)+(x4+x5+x6+x7)+(x8+x9+x 10 +x 11 )+(x 12 +x 13 +x 14 )

[0163] Below, the final event tree is established for the top event in the third stage, which is from initiating the insurance release and isolation process to safely separating the electronic safety system from isolation and the top event is from initiating the insurance release and isolation process to safely separating the electronic safety system.

[0164] The top event is the final event tree from the initiation of the arming and de-isolation process to the safe separation of the electronic safety system de-isolation. Fig.15 The event names and occurrence probabilities are shown in Table 3.

[0165] Table 3

[0166]

[0167] The corresponding failure model is:

[0168]

[0169] Among them, B 31 The calculation formula is:

[0170] B 31 =(x3+x4+x5+x6)+(x7+x8)+(x9+x 10 +x 11 )+(x 12 +x 13 +x 14 )

[0171] The top event is the final event tree from initiating the arming and de-isolating process to safely separating the electronic safety system. Fig.15 The event names and occurrence probabilities are shown in Table 4.

[0172] Table 4

[0173]

[0174] The corresponding failure model is:

[0175] T 32 =x1+T 31 B 32 (14)

[0176] Among them, B 32 The calculation formula is:

[0177] B 32 =(x2+x3)+(x4+x5+x6+x7)+(x8+x9+x 10 +x 11 )+(x 12 +x 13 +x14 )

[0178] The specific steps in calculating the probability of occurrence of the top event are as follows:

[0179] If the final event tree does not contain repeated or identical bottom events, and the bottom events are independent of each other, the probability of the top event can be calculated based on the event tree structure. When the AND gate is used for connection, the probability of the top event is:

[0180]

[0181] Among them, P(T) is the probability of occurrence of the top event; q i is the probability of occurrence of the i-th (i=1, 2, 3, ..., n) bottom event.

[0182] When the OR gate connection is used, the probability of the top event occurring is:

[0183]

[0184] If the final event tree contains repeated bottom events, the minimum cut set method is used to calculate the probability of the top event. Some bottom events appear repeatedly in the minimum cut set, and the minimum cut sets have intersections. The final event tree is represented by an equivalent tree of the minimum cut set. At this time, the top event is equal to the union of the minimum cut sets. Suppose the event tree has i minimum cut sets: A1, A2…A i-1 , A i , so we have:

[0185]

[0186] Among them, T is the top event; A r is the rth (i=1, 2, 3, ..., n) minimum cut set.

[0187] At this time, the probability of the top event occurring is:

[0188]

[0189] After simplification, we can get:

[0190]

[0191] Among them, r, s, k are the minimum cut set numbers, and r<s<k; x i ∈A r is the i-th bottom event x belonging to the r-th minimum cut set i ;x i ∈A r ∪A s is the i-th bottom event belonging to the s-th or r-th minimum cut set.

[0192] Through MATLAB simulation analysis, T 11 There are 2193 minimum cut sets of the event tree with top events. The probability of the electronic safety system releasing isolation before the scheduled release of insurance and release of isolation process begins is: P(T 11 )=1.07×10 -12 ; T 12 There are 14 minimum cut sets of the event tree for the top event. The probability of the electronic safety system working before the scheduled release of insurance and release of isolation process begins is: P(T 11 ) = 2 × 10 -9 ; T 31 There are 13 minimum cut sets of the event tree with top events, from the start of the release of insurance and isolation process to the safety separation of the electronic safety system isolation: P(T 31 )=7.22×10 -4 ; T 32 There are 14 minimum cut sets of the event tree with top events. The probability of starting the release of insurance and isolation to the release of isolation of the safety separation electronic safety system is: P(T32) = 6.11 × 10 -7 , the safety of electronic safety systems has met the design requirements.

[0193] Through analysis, it can be seen that before the scheduled release of insurance and isolation process begins, the probability of the electronic safety system releasing isolation or functioning is extremely small, meeting the standard of one in a million. The main factor affecting the function of the electronic safety system at this stage is the self-explosion of the impact piece detonator. Therefore, improving the safety of the impact piece detonator is of great help to the improvement of safety at this stage, and it is more appropriate to choose insensitive medicine with high safety as the main material of the impact piece detonator.

[0194] From the start of the release of insurance and isolation process to safe separation, the probability of the electronic safety system releasing isolation increases significantly, meeting the one thousandth standard. The main factor causing the increase in the probability of the electronic safety system releasing isolation at this stage is that there is only one independent dynamic switch as an isolation component at this stage. The failure of the communication module, controller, optocoupler and dynamic switch itself will directly or indirectly lead to the release of the third-level isolation. As the probability of the electronic safety system releasing isolation increases at this stage, the main influencing factor of the electronic safety system at this stage is no longer the self-explosion of the impact piece detonator. The failure of the acceleration sensor, the explosion switch, the second controller, the transistor and the high-voltage switch is the main factor affecting the function of the electronic safety system at this stage.

[0195] It should be understood that the above specific embodiments of the present invention are only used to illustrate or explain the principles of the present invention, and do not constitute a limitation of the present invention. Therefore, any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc. made without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention. In addition, the appended claims of the present invention are intended to cover all changes and modifications that fall within the scope and boundaries of the appended claims, or the equivalent forms of such scope and boundaries.

Claims

1. A safety analysis method for an ammunition electronic safety system, characterized in that: include: Step 100: Divide the workflow of the electronic safety system into: a first stage, a second stage and a third stage, wherein the first stage is a stage before the launch cycle, the second stage is a stage within the launch cycle, and the third stage is a stage after the launch cycle and within a safe distance; Step 200: determining top events for the first stage, the second stage and the third stage of the electronic safety system respectively, and establishing basic event trees and corresponding failure models for the first stage, the second stage and the third stage in combination with analyzing historical fault data of the electronic safety system; Step 300: Continue to establish subtrees for the basic event trees of the first stage, the second stage and the third stage according to the workflow of the electronic security system until each event constituting the subtree is a bottom event, complete the establishment of the final event tree, obtain the occurrence probability of each of the bottom events, and calculate the occurrence probability of the top event.

2. The safety analysis method of the ammunition electronic safety system according to claim 1, characterized in that: In the step 200, the top events determined in the first stage include: electronic safety system isolation release before the scheduled insurance release and isolation release process begins, and electronic safety system action before the scheduled insurance release and isolation release process begins; When barrel-launched ammunition is used, the top events determined in the second stage include: the electronic safety system of the ammunition fired from the barrel is released from the muzzle, and the electronic safety system of the ammunition fired from the barrel is activated before the ammunition is fired from the muzzle; The top events determined in the third stage include: from the initiation of the safety arming and isolation release process or the discharge of the ammunition fired from the barrel to the release of the isolation of the safety separation electronic safety system, and from the initiation of the safety arming and isolation release process or the discharge of the ammunition fired from the barrel to the action of the safety separation electronic safety system.

3. The safety analysis method of the ammunition electronic safety system according to claim 2, characterized in that: The top event determined in the first stage is the electronic safety system isolating before the scheduled release of insurance and isolation process begins. The specific structure of the established basic event tree is that the first-level insurance release event, the second-level insurance release event and the third-level isolation release event are connected by sequential AND gates, and the sequential condition is that the first-level insurance release event, the second-level insurance release event and the third-level isolation release event occur in sequence, and the corresponding failure model is: T 11 =A 11 B 11 C 11 (1) Among them, T 11 Electronic security system de-isolating for the event in question prior to the scheduled de-security and de-isolating process; A 11 Level 1 insurance release for the event described; B 11 Level 2 insurance release for the event described; C 11 The Level 3 quarantine has been lifted for the incident described; The top event determined in the first stage is when the electronic safety system acts before the scheduled release and isolation process begins. The specific structure of the established basic event tree is that the electronic safety system releases isolation before the scheduled release and isolation process begins and the high-voltage switch closes. The two events are connected to the gate in sequence and then connected to the impact piece detonator self-explosion through the OR gate. The corresponding failure model is: T 12 =x1+(T 11 B 12 )(2) Among them, T 12 The electronic safety system is activated before the scheduled release and isolation process of the event begins; x1 is the self-explosion of the impact piece detonator of the event; T 11 Electronic security system de-isolating for the event before the scheduled de-insurance and de-isolating process begins; B 12 The high voltage switch is closed for the event.

4. The safety analysis method of the ammunition electronic safety system according to claim 2, characterized in that: When barrel firing is adopted, the top event determined in the second stage is when the electronic safety system of the barrel-fired ammunition is released from the muzzle before the isolation, including three situations, namely: The first case: the first-level safety, the second-level safety and the third-level isolation are all located outside the muzzle; the failure mode of the electronic safety system isolating the ammunition fired from the barrel before it exits the muzzle is: the first-level safety is released, the second-level safety is released, and the third-level isolation is released; The second situation: the first-level safety is released in the chamber, and the second-level safety and the third-level isolation are both released outside the muzzle; the failure mode of the electronic safety system releasing the isolation before the ammunition fired from the barrel is: the first-level safety is released (the probability of occurrence is 1), the second-level safety is released, and the third-level isolation is released; The third situation: the first-level safety and the second-level safety are released in the chamber, and the third-level isolation is released outside the muzzle; the failure mode of the electronic safety system releasing the isolation before the ammunition fired from the barrel is: the first-level safety is released (the probability of occurrence is 1), the second-level safety is released (the probability of occurrence is 1), and the third-level isolation is released; The specific structure of the basic event tree established in the first case is that the electronic safety system accidentally releases the first-level insurance, the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation before the event is discharged, and the electronic safety system releases isolation before the predetermined release and isolation process begins through the OR gate, and the specific structure of the electronic safety system accidentally releasing the first-level insurance, the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation before the event is discharged is connected by the first-level insurance release event, the second-level insurance release event and the third-level isolation release event through the sequential AND gate, and the sequential condition is that the first-level insurance release, the second-level insurance release and the third-level isolation release occur in sequence, and the corresponding failure model is: T 21 =A 211 +T 11 =(B 21 C 21 D 21 )+T 11 (3) Among them, T 21 To release the electronic safety system before the ammunition fired from the event barrel leaves the muzzle; A 211 The electronic safety system accidentally releases the first level insurance, second level insurance and third level isolation before the event; B 21 The first level of insurance release for the event; C 21 The second level insurance release for the event; D 21 The quarantine has been lifted for the incident level 3; T 11 Electronic security system de-isolating for incidents prior to scheduled de-security and de-isolating procedures; The specific structure of the basic event tree established in the second case is that the electronic safety system accidentally releases the first-level insurance, the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation before the event is discharged, and is connected to the electronic safety system isolation release before the scheduled insurance release and isolation release process starts through the OR gate, and the specific structure of the electronic safety system accidentally releasing the first-level insurance, the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation before the event is discharged is connected by the event first-level insurance has been released, the event second-level insurance has been released and the event third-level isolation has been released through the AND gate in sequence, and the sequence condition is that the first-level insurance has been released, the second-level insurance has been released and the third-level isolation has been released in sequence, and the corresponding failure model is: Among them, A 212 The electronic safety system had released the first level of safety before the incident, and accidentally released the second level of safety and the third level of isolation; The first level insurance for the event has been released; The specific structure of the basic event tree established in the third case is that the electronic safety system has released the first-level insurance and the second-level insurance before the event is fired, and the electronic safety system accidentally releases the third-level isolation, which is connected to the electronic safety system release isolation before the scheduled release and isolation release process begins through the OR gate, and the electronic safety system has released the first-level insurance and the second-level insurance before the event is fired, and the electronic safety system accidentally releases the third-level isolation by the event first-level insurance has been released, the event second-level insurance has been released, and the event third-level isolation is released through the AND gate in sequence, and the sequence condition is that the first-level insurance release has been released, the second-level insurance has been released, and the third-level isolation release occurs in sequence, and the corresponding failure model is: Among them, A 213 The safety system released the first and second level safety before the incident; the safety system accidentally released the third level isolation; The first level insurance for the event has been released; Level 2 insurance has been released for this event.

5. The safety analysis method of the ammunition electronic safety system according to claim 2, characterized in that: When barrel firing is adopted, the top event determined in the second stage is when the electronic safety system of the ammunition fired from the barrel acts before it exits the muzzle. The specific structure is that the event of the impact piece detonator self-explosion and the event of the impact piece detonator being exploded are connected through an OR gate, and the event of the impact piece detonator being exploded is connected through an OR gate through the event of the electronic safety system of the ammunition fired from the barrel being released from the muzzle and the event of the high-voltage switch being closed through the sequence and connected to the gate. The sequence condition is that the electronic safety system of the ammunition fired from the barrel being released from the muzzle and the event of the high-voltage switch being closed occur in sequence, and the corresponding failure model is: T 22 =x1+A 22 =x1+(T 21 B 22 )(6) Among them, T 22 The electronic safety system of the ammunition fired from the event barrel before it leaves the muzzle; x1 is the self-explosion of the event impact piece detonator; A 22 The impact piece detonator was blown up due to the incident; 21 To release the electronic safety system before the ammunition fired from the event barrel leaves the muzzle; B 22 The high voltage switch is closed for the event.

6. The safety analysis method of the ammunition electronic safety system according to claim 2, characterized in that: The top events determined in the third stage are from the start of the release of insurance and isolation release process to the release of isolation of the safety separation electronic safety system, which are: Case 1: The first-level safety, second-level safety and third-level isolation release are all outside the safety separation process; the failure mode from the start of the safety release and isolation release process or the exit of the ammunition fired from the barrel to the isolation release of the safety separation electronic safety system is: first-level safety release, second-level safety release, and third-level isolation release; Case 2: Both the second-level safety and the third-level isolation release are outside the safety separation process; the failure mode from the start of the safety release and isolation release process or the exit of the ammunition fired from the barrel to the isolation release of the safety separation electronic safety system is: the first-level safety is released (the probability of occurrence is 1), the second-level safety is released, and the third-level isolation is released; Case 3: The third level isolation release is outside the safety separation process; the failure modes from the start of the safety release and isolation release process or the exit of the ammunition fired from the barrel to the safety separation electronic safety system isolating: the first level safety has been released (the probability of occurrence is 1), the second level safety has been released (the probability of occurrence is 1), and the third level isolation is released; The specific structure of the basic event tree established in the first case is that the first-level insurance, the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation are released in advance within the event safety distance, and the electronic safety system releases the isolation before the ammunition fired from the barrel of the event is connected through an OR gate, and the first-level insurance, the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation are released in advance within the event safety distance by the event first-level insurance early release, the event second-level insurance early release and the event third-level insurance early release through the sequence AND gate, and the sequence condition is that the first-level insurance, the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation are released in advance within the event safety distance by the event first-level insurance early release, the event second-level insurance early release and the event third-level insurance early release occur in sequence, and the corresponding failure model is: T 31 =A 311 +T 21 =(B 31 C 31 D 31 )+T 21 (7) Among them, T 31 De-isolating electronic security systems from initiating the arming and de-isolating process to safely disengaging them for an incident; 311 To lift the first level insurance, second level insurance and third level isolation in advance within the safety distance of the incident; T 21 To release the electronic safety system before the ammunition fired from the event barrel leaves the muzzle; B 31 Early release of the first level insurance for the event; C 31 The second level insurance of the event is released in advance; D 31 Early release of insurance for level 3 events; The specific structure of the basic event tree established in the second case is that the event of releasing the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation in advance within the safety distance and the electronic safety system of the ammunition fired from the barrel before the muzzle is released are connected through an OR gate, and the event of releasing the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation in advance within the safety distance is connected by the event of the first-level insurance being released, the event of the second-level insurance being released in advance, and the event of the third-level isolation being released in advance through the sequence AND gate, and the sequence condition is that the event of releasing the second-level insurance and the third-level isolation in advance within the safety distance is caused by the event of the first-level insurance being released, the event of the second-level insurance being released in advance, and the event of the third-level isolation being released in advance. The corresponding failure model is: Among them, A 312 Early lifting of Level 2 insurance and Level 3 isolation within a safe distance of the incident; The first level insurance for the event has been released; The specific structure of the basic event tree established in the third case is that the event of releasing the third-level isolation in advance within the safety distance and the electronic safety system of the ammunition fired from the barrel before the muzzle are released are connected through an OR gate, wherein the event of releasing the third-level isolation in advance within the safety distance is connected by the event of the first-level insurance being released, the event of the second-level insurance being released, and the event of the third-level isolation being released in advance through the sequence AND gate, and the sequence condition is that the event of the first-level insurance being released, the event of the second-level insurance being released, and the event of the third-level isolation being released in advance occur in sequence, and the corresponding failure model is: Among them, A 313 Lift Level 3 quarantine ahead of schedule for incident safety distance; The first level insurance for the event has been released; Level 2 insurance has been released for this event.

7. The safety analysis method of the ammunition electronic safety system according to claim 2, characterized in that: The top event determined in the third stage is from the start of the release and isolation process or the discharge of the ammunition fired from the barrel to the action of the safety separation electronic safety system. The specific structure of the basic event tree is established as the event of the impact piece detonator self-explosion and the event of the impact piece detonator being exploded are connected through an OR gate, wherein the event of the impact piece detonator being exploded is connected by the event from the start of the release and isolation process or the discharge of the ammunition fired from the barrel to the safety separation electronic safety system de-isolation and the event of the high-voltage switch closing through the sequence AND gate, and the sequence condition is that the event occurs in sequence from the start of the release and isolation process or the discharge of the ammunition fired from the barrel to the safety separation electronic safety system de-isolation and the event of the high-voltage switch closing, and the corresponding failure model is: T 32 =x1+A 32 =x1+(T 31 B 32 )(10) Among them, T 32 The event is from the start of the arming and isolation process or the discharge of the ammunition from the barrel to the safe separation of the electronic safety system; x1 is the event of the impact piece detonator self-explosion; A 32 The impact piece detonator was blown up due to the incident; 31 De-isolating the electronic safety system for events from the initiation of the arming and de-isolating process or the exit of a barrel-fired ammunition to the safe separation; B 32 The high voltage switch is closed for the event.

8. The safety analysis method of the ammunition electronic safety system according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step 300, if the final event tree does not contain repeated or identical bottom events, and the bottom events are independent of each other, the occurrence probability of the top event is calculated according to the event tree structure; When the AND gate is used for connection, the probability of the top event is: Among them, P(T) is the probability of occurrence of the top event; q i is the probability of occurrence of the ith (i=1, 2, 3, ..., n) bottom event; When the OR gate connection is used, the probability of the top event occurring is: If the final event tree contains the bottom events that appear repeatedly, the minimum cut set method is used to calculate the probability of occurrence of the top event. Some of the bottom events appear repeatedly in the minimum cut sets, and the minimum cut sets have intersections. The equivalent tree of the minimum cut sets is used to represent the final event tree, so Among them, T is the top event; A r is the rth (i=1, 2, 3, ..., n) minimum cut set; The probability of the top event occurring is: Among them, r, s, k are the minimum cut set numbers, and r<s<k; x i ∈A r is the i-th bottom event x belonging to the r-th minimum cut set i ;x i ∈A r ∪A s is the i-th bottom event belonging to the s-th or r-th minimum cut set.

Images