Drainage basin sustainable development scene simulation method, device, equipment and medium

Abstract

The invention provides a watershed sustainable development scene simulation method and device, equipment and a medium, and relates to the technical field of watershed management. The method comprises the following steps: establishing a subsystem set, and obtaining a relationship between subsystems and a plurality of first variables of each subsystem; constructing a watershed sustainable development model system framework according to the subsystem set and the plurality of first variables of each subsystem; obtaining a causal loop, and obtaining respective variable calculation equations of the plurality of first variables of each subsystem according to the causal loop and the plurality of first variables of each subsystem; and according to the respective variable calculation equation of each first variable, constructing a watershed sustainable development model so as to obtain a watershed sustainable development scene simulation result according to scene simulation of the watershed sustainable development model. According to the method provided by the invention, the integrity and systematic analysis of the drainage basin can be realized on the premise of multi-element coupling development.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of watershed management, and in particular to a method, device, equipment and medium for simulating a watershed sustainable development scenario. Background Art

[0002] A river basin refers to the catchment area of ​​a river or water system surrounded by a watershed. The study of river basins is of great significance for understanding the hydrological cycle, predicting water resources, predicting floods, water conservancy facilities, and protecting the ecological environment. The natural geographical features, climatic conditions, and human activities in a river basin will affect the hydrological characteristics of the basin and the sustainable use of water resources. However, the study of sustainable development of river basins is a complex giant system problem, and it is easy to have the problem of missing system elements, resulting in incomplete analysis of the sustainable development of river basins.

[0003] At present, the methods for analyzing the sustainable development of a river basin mainly include determining the elements that may be needed, establishing an indicator system based on the elements, and calculating the probability to obtain an analysis of the sustainable development status of the river basin; or using a model to simulate the river basin development process, using a combination of scenarios of various economic, social, and environmental conditions to obtain scenario simulation results. However, such methods can achieve river basin management within the region, but do not consider the integrity of the river basin.

[0004] How to achieve the integrity and systematic analysis of the watershed under the premise of multi-factor coupled development is a problem that the present invention urgently needs to solve. Summary of the invention

[0005] The present application provides a watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method, device, equipment and medium to solve the problem of achieving integrity and systematic analysis of the watershed under the premise of multi-factor coupled development.

[0006] In a first aspect, the present application provides a method for simulating a watershed sustainable development scenario, the method comprising:

[0007] Establish a subsystem set, and obtain the relationship between each subsystem and multiple first variables of each subsystem; wherein the subsystem set includes: population subsystem, economic subsystem, environmental subsystem, resource subsystem, low-carbon subsystem and disaster subsystem;

[0008] According to the subsystem set and multiple first variables of each subsystem, a watershed sustainable development model system framework is constructed; wherein the watershed sustainable development model system framework is a system dynamics model framework;

[0009] Obtaining a causal loop, and obtaining variable calculation equations of the multiple first variables of each subsystem based on the causal loop and the multiple first variables of each subsystem; wherein the causal loop refers to the feedback relationship between multiple subsystems, or the feedback relationship within a subsystem, and the causal loop is obtained based on the system framework of the watershed sustainable development model; the first variable refers to the main variable of each subsystem;

[0010] According to the variable calculation equation of each first variable, a basin sustainable development model is constructed, so as to obtain the sustainable development scenario simulation result of the basin according to the scenario simulation of the basin sustainable development model.

[0011] In a possible design, resources include food resources, forest resources and energy resources, and the resource subsystem includes food subsystem, forest subsystem and energy subsystem.

[0012] In one possible design, the feedback relationships between multiple subsystems include:

[0013] The feedback relationship between the population subsystem and the economic subsystem, food subsystem, energy subsystem and environmental subsystem;

[0014] Feedback relationships between the economic subsystem and the population subsystem, forest subsystem, energy subsystem, and environmental subsystem;

[0015] Feedback relationships between the food subsystem and the population subsystem, forest subsystem, and disaster subsystem;

[0016] Feedback relationships between the forest subsystem and the economic subsystem, food subsystem and low-carbon subsystem;

[0017] The feedback relationship between the energy subsystem and the economic and low-carbon subsystems;

[0018] The feedback relationship between the low-carbon subsystem and the energy and forest subsystems;

[0019] Feedback relationships between the environmental subsystem and the population and economic subsystems;

[0020] Feedback relationships between the disaster subsystem and the food and forest subsystems.

[0021] In a possible design, the causal loop includes: a first causal loop, a second causal loop, a third causal loop and a fourth causal loop; wherein the first causal loop is used to indicate the causal loop relationship between the population subsystem, the economic subsystem and the resource subsystem; the second causal loop is used to indicate the causal loop relationship between the population subsystem, the economic subsystem and the environmental subsystem; the third causal loop is used to indicate the causal loop relationship between the energy subsystem, the forest subsystem and the low-carbon subsystem; the fourth causal loop is used to indicate the causal loop relationship between the food subsystem, the disaster subsystem, the economic subsystem and the forest subsystem.

[0022] In a possible design, the first causal loop specifically includes: the reinforcement loop and the regulation loop between the population subsystem and the economic subsystem, the regulation loop within the food subsystem, the regulation loop between the population subsystem and the food subsystem, the regulation loop within the forest subsystem, the regulation loop between the population subsystem and the energy subsystem, and the regulation loop between the economic subsystem and the energy subsystem;

[0023] The second causal loop specifically includes: the regulatory loops among the population subsystem, the economic subsystem, and the environmental subsystem, as well as the regulatory loop within the environmental subsystem;

[0024] The third causal loop specifically includes: the regulatory loop between the energy subsystem and the low-carbon subsystem, and the regulatory loop between the forest subsystem and the low-carbon subsystem;

[0025] The fourth causal loop specifically includes: the reinforcement loop between the food subsystem and the disaster subsystem, and the regulation loop between the economic subsystem, the forest subsystem and the disaster subsystem.

[0026] In a possible design, according to the causal loop and the multiple first variables of each subsystem, the variable calculation equations of the multiple first variables of each subsystem are obtained, including:

[0027] According to the first causal loop, a variable first relationship among a plurality of first variables of the population subsystem, the economic subsystem and the resource subsystem is obtained;

[0028] According to the second causal loop, the second relationship between the variables of the population subsystem, the economic subsystem and the environmental subsystem is obtained;

[0029] According to the third causal loop, the third relationship between the variables of the energy subsystem, the forest subsystem and the low-carbon subsystem is obtained;

[0030] According to the fourth causal loop, the fourth relationship between the variables of the food subsystem, the disaster subsystem, the economic subsystem and the forest subsystem is obtained;

[0031] According to the first relationship of the variables, the second relationship of the variables, the third relationship of the variables and the fourth relationship of the variables, a variable calculation equation for each variable is obtained.

[0032] In one possible design, after constructing the watershed sustainable development model based on the variable calculation equations for each first variable, the method further includes:

[0033] A scenario simulation is performed on the basin sustainable development model to obtain a simulation result of each first variable of each subsystem, wherein each simulation result is used to indicate the development of the corresponding first variable.

[0034] In a second aspect, the present application provides a watershed sustainable development scenario simulation device, comprising:

[0035] A collection module is used to establish a subsystem collection and obtain the relationship between each subsystem and multiple first variables of each subsystem; wherein the subsystem collection includes: population subsystem, economic subsystem, environmental subsystem, resource subsystem, low-carbon subsystem and disaster subsystem;

[0036] A framework module is used to construct a watershed sustainable development model system framework according to a subsystem set and a plurality of first variables of each subsystem; wherein the watershed sustainable development model system framework is a system dynamics model framework;

[0037] An equation module is used to obtain a causal loop, and obtain a variable calculation equation of multiple first variables of each subsystem based on the causal loop and multiple first variables of each subsystem; wherein the causal loop refers to a feedback relationship between multiple subsystems, or a feedback relationship within a subsystem, and the causal loop is obtained based on a system framework of a watershed sustainable development model;

[0038] The construction module is used to construct a basin sustainable development model according to the variable calculation equation of each first variable, so as to obtain the sustainable development scenario simulation result of the basin according to the scenario simulation of the basin sustainable development model.

[0039] In a third aspect, the present application provides an electronic device, comprising: a processor, and a memory communicatively connected to the processor;

[0040] Memory stores computer-executable instructions;

[0041] The processor executes the computer execution instructions stored in the memory to implement a watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method according to the first aspect of the invention.

[0042] In a fourth aspect, the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium, in which computer execution instructions are stored. When the computer execution instructions are executed by a processor, a method for simulating a watershed sustainable development scenario is used to implement the content of the first aspect of the invention.

[0043] In a fifth aspect, the present application provides a computer program product, including: a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, is used to implement a method for simulating a watershed sustainable development scenario according to the invention content of the first aspect.

[0044] The present application provides a method, device, equipment and medium for simulating a watershed sustainable development scenario, which establishes a subsystem set and obtains the relationship between each subsystem and multiple first variables of each subsystem; constructs a watershed sustainable development model system framework based on the subsystem set and the multiple first variables of each subsystem; obtains a causal loop, and obtains variable calculation equations for the multiple first variables of each subsystem based on the causal loop and the multiple first variables of each subsystem; constructs a watershed sustainable development model based on the variable calculation equations for each first variable, so as to obtain different development scenario simulation results of the watershed based on the scenario simulation of the watershed sustainable development model. The following technical effects have been achieved: a subsystem set is established, and a model framework is established based on the subsystems and multiple variables corresponding to the subsystems, thus realizing the construction of a basin sustainable development model framework, providing a variety of possible situations for subsequent basin research, and basin problem analysis can be systematically carried out from the model framework; multiple variable equations are obtained based on the obtained causal loops, subsystems and multiple variables corresponding to the subsystems, and through the causal loop analysis between various elements, the problem of coupled development between multiple elements is solved, so that the basin problem research comprehensively considers the variable development of multiple elements; through the variable equations, a sustainable development model is obtained, which comprehensively considers the coupling process and feedback mechanism between multiple elements, reflecting the integrity and systematicness of basin problem research. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0045] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0046] Figure 1 A model system structure diagram of a watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0047] Figure 2 Schematic diagram of the process of the watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in the embodiment of the present application Figure 1 ;

[0048] Figure 3 Schematic diagram of the process of the watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in the embodiment of the present application Figure 2 ;

[0049] Figure 4 A first causal loop diagram of a watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0050] Figure 5 A second causal loop diagram of the watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0051] Figure 6 A third causal loop diagram of the watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0052] Figure 7 A fourth causal loop diagram of the watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0053] Figure 8 Different scenario simulation diagrams of per capita GDP for the basin sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in the embodiment of the present application;

[0054] Fig. 9 A simulation diagram of different energy consumption scenarios for the watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0055] Fig.10 Different total phosphorus scenario simulation diagrams of the watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in the embodiment of the present application;

[0056] Fig.11 A simulation diagram of different forest coverage scenarios for the watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in the embodiment of the present application;

[0057] Fig.12 A simulation diagram of different water safety scenarios of the basin sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in the embodiment of the present application;

[0058] Fig.13 A schematic diagram of the structure of a watershed sustainable development scenario simulation device provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0059] Fig.14 A schematic diagram of the structure of the electronic device hardware provided in an embodiment of the present application.

[0060] Reference numerals:

[0061] 110-population subsystem; 120-economic subsystem; 130-energy subsystem; 140-low-carbon subsystem; 150-forest subsystem; 160-disaster subsystem; 170-food subsystem; 180-environmental subsystem;

[0062] 210-assembly module; 220-framework module; 230-equation module; 240-construction module;

[0063] 310 - processor; 320 - memory; 330 - communication component; 340 - bus. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0064] Exemplary embodiments will be described in detail herein, examples of which are shown in the accompanying drawings. When the following description refers to the drawings, the same numbers in different drawings represent the same or similar elements unless otherwise indicated. The implementations described in the following exemplary embodiments do not represent all implementations consistent with the present application. Instead, they are merely examples of devices and methods consistent with some aspects of the present application as detailed in the appended claims.

[0065] In the embodiments of the present application, words such as "first" and "second" are used to distinguish the same or similar items with basically the same functions and effects. Those skilled in the art will understand that words such as "first" and "second" do not limit the quantity and execution order, and words such as "first" and "second" do not necessarily limit the difference. It should be noted that in the embodiments of the present application, words such as "exemplary" or "for example" are used to indicate examples, illustrations or explanations. Any embodiment or design described as "exemplary" or "for example" in the present application should not be interpreted as being more preferred or more advantageous than other embodiments or design schemes. Specifically, the use of words such as "exemplary" or "for example" is intended to present related concepts in a specific way. In the embodiments of the present application, "at least one" refers to one or more, and "more" refers to two or more.

[0066] It should be noted that the "at..." in the embodiments of the present application can be the instant when a certain situation occurs, or it can be a period of time after a certain situation occurs, and the embodiments of the present application do not specifically limit this. In addition, the watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in the embodiments of the present application is only an example, and the watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method can also include more or less content.

[0067] In order to clearly describe the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application, some terms and technologies involved in the embodiments of the present application are briefly introduced below:

[0068] Basin: A basin refers to the watershed area of ​​a river surrounded by a watershed line. It is divided into two categories: surface watershed and underground watershed. If the surface watershed and underground watershed overlap, it is called a closed basin; if they do not overlap, it is called an open basin. The basin we usually refer to is generally the surface watershed.

[0069] Multi-factor coupled development of river basins: Multi-factor coupled development of river basins refers to the interaction and coordinated development model between natural ecosystems and population socio-economic systems in the context of river basin management and sustainable development. Specifically, it emphasizes the interdependence, mutual influence and coordinated development between natural ecosystems (such as water resources, soil, biodiversity, etc.) and population socio-economic activities (such as agriculture, industry, urbanization, etc.) within a specific geographical unit, the river basin.

[0070] Sustainable development of river basins: Sustainable development of river basins refers to promoting coordinated development of economy, society and environment on the premise of ensuring the rational use and protection of water resources, so as to meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. This concept emphasizes the management and protection of the river basin as a whole, focusing on the natural process of water cycle, the health of the ecosystem, the efficient use of water resources and the mitigation of water-related disasters, while promoting the well-being of the population and the socio-economic progress of the region.

[0071] Complex mega-problems: Complex mega-problems are those that are large in scale, involve multidisciplinary knowledge, have high uncertainty, have far-reaching impacts, and are intertwined. These problems usually transcend the boundaries of a single discipline and organization, and require interdisciplinary collaboration, long-term efforts, and broad participation from all sectors of society to solve.

[0072] Capital stock: Capital stock refers to the sum of all types of capital invested in the production process, calculated using the perpetual stock method, that is, this year's capital stock equals the accumulated capital stock of the previous year plus the new capital invested this year. And each year's GDP minus expenditures is fully invested in the production of the next year and converted into capital, so the new capital invested this year is equal to the GDP of the previous year multiplied by the investment rate.

[0073] Regression analysis: Regression analysis is a mathematical data analysis tool that is mainly used to explore and quantify the relationship between two or more variables. Its core purpose is to establish a mathematical model through a known set of data (observations or samples). This model can describe and predict how one or more independent variables (explanatory variables) affect the change of a dependent variable (response variable). Regression analysis can be used to estimate the degree and direction of association between variables, and can be used for prediction and control.

[0074] Fitting method: Fitting method is an analysis and mathematical modeling method that aims to approximate or fit a known set of data points by adjusting the parameters of the function. Its goal is to find a function model, usually a continuous curve or equation, that can well represent the trends and patterns of the data. This method is very useful in scientific research, engineering problems, economics, and other fields that need to extract laws or make predictions from data.

[0075] Empirical formula method: The empirical formula method is an analytical method that uses mathematical means to establish approximate relationships (i.e., empirical formulas) based on experimental data or actual observation data to describe or predict phenomena. This method is suitable for situations where it is difficult to directly derive precise mathematical expressions from basic principles, or even if they can be derived, the complexity is extremely high. Empirical formulas are usually obtained by data fitting, which means that they are a mathematical approximation of actual data points, with the aim of simplifying the representation of data for easy understanding and use.

[0076] Causal loop: The causal loop diagram is the logical framework of the system dynamics model, which consists of the components of the system and the action chain between the components. Each arrow in the diagram represents a causal relationship. A closed loop consisting of a series of causal and interaction chains (arrows) is called a feedback loop. In a feedback loop, a loop that continuously strengthens the system with each cycle is called a reinforcement loop. Conversely, a loop that makes the system closer to a set target value with each cycle is called a regulation loop.

[0077] State variable: refers to the accumulation process of system variables changing over time.

[0078] Rate variable: also known as decision variable, refers to the change of level variable per unit time.

[0079] The management and protection of a river basin as a whole focuses on the natural process of the water cycle, the health of the ecosystem, the efficient use of water resources, and the mitigation of water-related disasters, while promoting the well-being of the population and socio-economic progress in the region. However, most current river basin research considers a single factor in the development of the river basin. Current research methods on river basin issues mainly include:

[0080] Firstly, some factors are taken as factors of the system dynamics model, and different schemes are simulated through the system dynamics model to obtain the simulation results.

[0081] Secondly, the basin is evaluated based on the evaluation index system.

[0082] Finally, according to the sample space, the corresponding probability of each indicator change is obtained, thus realizing the analysis of watershed problems.

[0083] There are other approaches to analyzing watershed issues, including:

[0084] Firstly, based on some element information, the basin hydrological model is used for simulation, compared with the monitored data, and the model is calibrated and corrected.

[0085] Secondly, simulations at both the land and meteorological levels are performed based on historical data to obtain simulation results.

[0086] Finally, based on the dual results, scenario simulation is carried out to obtain the simulation results.

[0087] However, since the study of sustainable development of watersheds is a complex and huge issue, although this type of method can realize the analysis of watershed problems in a certain area, it has the following problems:

[0088] First, existing studies on river basin issues mostly focus on a single factor or a few factors, without considering the coupling and feedback mechanism between multiple factors. The factors considered are not comprehensive, which may lead to an incomplete logical framework for sustainable development of the river basin.

[0089] Secondly, most of the existing research focuses on the administrative district level, and there are fewer studies that take river basins as research objects, especially research on large river basins, which makes it difficult to reflect the integrity and systematic nature of the river basins.

[0090] How to achieve the integrity and systematic analysis of the watershed under the premise of multi-factor coupled development is a problem that the present invention urgently needs to solve.

[0091] Based on this, the embodiments of the present application provide a method, device, equipment and medium for simulating a watershed sustainable development scenario, which can be used in the field of watershed management technology, aiming to solve the above technical problems of the prior art.

[0092] Figure 1 This is a model system structure diagram of the watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in the embodiment of the present application. The model architecture diagram can be used in the various application scenarios described below, and can also be used to build models for other application scenarios not specified. It should be noted that Figure 1 Only the model framework and internal diagrams of the basin coupled development scenario simulation are shown, and the subsystem variables include but are not limited to the following variables.

[0093] like Figure 1 As shown, the model system structure includes: population subsystem 110, economic subsystem 120, energy subsystem 130, low-carbon subsystem 140, forest subsystem 150, disaster subsystem 160, food subsystem 170 and environment subsystem 180.

[0094] A subsystem set is established with the population subsystem 110 and the economic subsystem 120, and the system variables of each subsystem are determined.

[0095] The system variables of the population subsystem 110 include: the number of people of each age group, the number of births and deaths, as well as the total fertility rate, the ratio of men to women, the urbanization rate, life expectancy and the average years of education. The population subsystem has a feedback relationship with the economic subsystem, the food subsystem, the energy subsystem and the environmental subsystem.

[0096] The system variables of the economic subsystem 120 include: GDP per capita, labor input, human capital, capital stock, investment rate, production expenditure ratio and the ratio of the three major industries. The economic subsystem establishes a feedback relationship with the population subsystem, forest subsystem, energy subsystem and environment subsystem.

[0097] The system variables of the energy subsystem 130 include: total per capita energy consumption, production energy consumption intensity corresponding to the three types of industries, and per capita living energy consumption. The energy subsystem establishes a feedback relationship with the economic subsystem and the low-carbon subsystem.

[0098] The system variables of the low-carbon subsystem 140 include: energy carbon emissions and forest carbon absorption. The low-carbon subsystem establishes a feedback relationship with the energy subsystem and the forest subsystem.

[0099] The system variables of the forest subsystem 150 include: afforestation input, forest area and forest coverage rate. The forest subsystem establishes a feedback relationship with the economic subsystem, the food subsystem and the low-carbon subsystem.

[0100] The system variables of the disaster subsystem 160 include: soil erosion amount, light (medium, severe) soil erosion area, soil and water management investment, flood (drought) affected area and water safety. The disaster subsystem has a feedback relationship with the food subsystem and the forest subsystem.

[0101] The system variables of the food subsystem 170 include: food output per unit area, cultivated land area, per capita food output and food security input. The food subsystem has a feedback relationship with the population subsystem, forest subsystem and disaster subsystem.

[0102] The system variables of the environmental subsystem 180 include: per capita domestic sewage (industrial wastewater) discharge, domestic (industrial, agricultural) source pollutant discharge, treatment rate, cross-section pollutant concentration, water quality compliance rate and environmental treatment investment. The environmental subsystem establishes a feedback relationship with the population subsystem and the economic subsystem.

[0103] Figure 2 Schematic diagram of the process of the watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in the embodiment of the present application Figure 1 .like Figure 2 As shown, the method includes:

[0104] S201, establishing a subsystem set, and obtaining the relationship between each subsystem and a plurality of first variables of each subsystem.

[0105] Among them, the subsystem set includes: population subsystem, economic subsystem, environmental subsystem, resource subsystem, low-carbon subsystem and disaster subsystem.

[0106] Specifically, a subsystem set is established and the relationship between each subsystem and the main variables of each subsystem are obtained. The subsystem set includes: population subsystem, economic subsystem, environmental subsystem, low-carbon subsystem, forest subsystem, food subsystem and disaster subsystem.

[0107] S202. Construct a watershed sustainable development model system framework based on the subsystem set and multiple first variables of each subsystem.

[0108] Among them, the system framework of the watershed sustainable development model is the system dynamics model framework.

[0109] Specifically, according to the main variables of each subsystem, the variables are used as system variables of system dynamics, and based on each subsystem and multiple variables of each subsystem, the model system framework of the sustainable development model of the basin is constructed.

[0110] S203: Obtain a causal loop, and obtain variable calculation equations of the multiple first variables of each subsystem according to the causal loop and the multiple first variables of each subsystem.

[0111] Among them, the causal loop refers to the feedback relationship between multiple subsystems, or the feedback relationship within a subsystem. The causal loop is obtained based on the system framework of the watershed sustainable development model; the first variable refers to the main variable of each subsystem.

[0112] Specifically, the feedback relationship between multiple subsystems or the feedback relationship within a subsystem is obtained, and based on the causal loop, the model system framework and multiple main variables of each subsystem, the variable calculation equation corresponding to each main variable is obtained.

[0113] S204, constructing a watershed sustainable development model according to the variable calculation equation of each first variable, so as to obtain a sustainable development scenario simulation result of the watershed according to the scenario simulation of the watershed sustainable development model.

[0114] Specifically, the basin sustainable development model is constructed based on the variable calculation equation of each variable. The basin sustainable development model can be used for scenario simulation to obtain the coupled development simulation results of the basin.

[0115] The present application provides a method for simulating a scenario of sustainable development of a watershed, which includes establishing a subsystem set; obtaining multiple variables of each subsystem; constructing a model system framework of a sustainable development model of a watershed according to the subsystem set and the multiple variables of each subsystem; obtaining a causal loop, and obtaining a variable calculation equation of each variable according to the model system framework, the causal loop and the multiple variables of each subsystem; constructing a sustainable development model according to the variable calculation equation of each variable, so as to obtain different simulation results of development scenarios of the watershed according to the scenario simulation of the sustainable development model. The following technical effects are achieved: establishing a subsystem set, and establishing a model framework according to the subsystems and the multiple variables corresponding to the subsystems, realizing the construction of a model framework of sustainable development of the watershed, providing a variety of possible situations for subsequent watershed research, and systematically analyzing watershed problems from the model framework; obtaining multiple variable equations according to the obtained causal loops, subsystems and the multiple variables corresponding to the subsystems, solving the problem of coupled development between multiple elements through the causal loop analysis between the various elements, so that the research on watershed problems comprehensively considers the variable development of multiple elements; obtaining a sustainable development model through the variable equation, comprehensively considering the coupling process and mutual feedback mechanism between multiple elements, and reflecting the integrity and systematicness of the research on watershed problems.

[0116] Figure 3 Schematic diagram of the process of the watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in the embodiment of the present application Figure 2 In this embodiment Figure 2 Based on the examples, the simulation method of the watershed sustainable development scenario is described in detail. Figure 3 As shown, this embodiment provides a watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method, including:

[0117] The principles of S301 and S202 are the same as those of S201 and S202, and will not be described in detail in this embodiment.

[0118] In a possible design, resources include food resources, forest resources and energy resources, and the resource subsystem includes food subsystem, forest subsystem and energy subsystem.

[0119] Specifically, the resource subsystem includes the food subsystem, forest subsystem and energy subsystem.

[0120] S303, obtaining a causal loop;

[0121] Specifically, the first, second, third and fourth causal loops are obtained according to the established watershed sustainable development model framework.

[0122] In one possible design, the feedback relationships between multiple subsystems include:

[0123] The feedback relationship between the population subsystem and the economic subsystem, food subsystem, energy subsystem and environmental subsystem;

[0124] Feedback relationships between the economic subsystem and the population subsystem, forest subsystem, energy subsystem, and environmental subsystem;

[0125] Feedback relationships between the food subsystem and the population subsystem, forest subsystem, and disaster subsystem;

[0126] Feedback relationships between the forest subsystem and the economic subsystem, food subsystem and low-carbon subsystem;

[0127] The feedback relationship between the energy subsystem and the economic and low-carbon subsystems;

[0128] The feedback relationship between the low-carbon subsystem and the energy and forest subsystems;

[0129] Feedback relationships between the environmental subsystem and the population and economic subsystems;

[0130] Feedback relationships between the disaster subsystem and the food and forest subsystems.

[0131] In a possible design, the causal loop includes: a first causal loop, a second causal loop, a third causal loop and a fourth causal loop; wherein the first causal loop is used to indicate the causal loop relationship between the population subsystem, the economic subsystem and the resource subsystem; the second causal loop is used to indicate the causal loop relationship between the population subsystem, the economic subsystem and the environmental subsystem; the third causal loop is used to indicate the causal loop relationship between the energy subsystem, the forest subsystem and the low-carbon subsystem; the fourth causal loop is used to indicate the causal loop relationship between the food subsystem, the disaster subsystem, the economic subsystem and the forest subsystem.

[0132] In a possible design, the first causal loop specifically includes: the reinforcement loop and the regulation loop between the population subsystem and the economic subsystem, the regulation loop within the food subsystem, the regulation loop between the population subsystem and the food subsystem, the regulation loop within the forest subsystem, the regulation loop between the population subsystem and the energy subsystem, and the regulation loop between the economic subsystem and the energy subsystem;

[0133] The second causal loop specifically includes: the regulatory loops among the population subsystem, the economic subsystem, and the environmental subsystem, as well as the regulatory loop within the environmental subsystem;

[0134] The third causal loop specifically includes: the regulatory loop between the energy subsystem and the low-carbon subsystem, and the regulatory loop between the forest subsystem and the low-carbon subsystem;

[0135] The fourth causal loop specifically includes: the reinforcement loop between the food subsystem and the disaster subsystem, and the regulation loop between the economic subsystem, the forest subsystem and the disaster subsystem.

[0136] Specifically, according to the relationship between the multiple subsystems, that is, the feedback relationship between the multiple subsystems, a causal loop between the associated subsystems is obtained, wherein the causal loop includes the relationship between the subsystems or the relationship within the subsystems.

[0137] The present embodiment provides a method for simulating a watershed sustainable development scenario, which takes into account the feedback relationship between multiple subsystems, and comprehensively considers the mutual feedback relationship between each subsystem and the mutual feedback relationship of system variables within each subsystem, so that the analysis of watershed problems focuses on the coupling process and mutual feedback mechanism between multiple elements, making the logical framework of the consideration of watershed sustainable development more complete.

[0138] S304. According to the first causal loop, a first relationship between the first variables of the population subsystem, the economic subsystem and the resource subsystem is obtained.

[0139] Specifically, based on the first causal loop obtained, the first relationship between the multiple first variables (main variables) of the population subsystem, economic subsystem and resource subsystem is obtained. That is, based on the loops between the population, economy, forest, food and energy subsystems obtained, the first relationship between the variables of multiple subsystems is obtained.

[0140] The present embodiment provides a watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method, which takes into account the causal loops among population, economy and resource subsystems, and fully considers the importance of population, economy and resource subsystems as the basic components of watershed sustainable development.

[0141] S305. According to the second causal loop, a second relationship between the variables of the population subsystem, the economic subsystem and the environmental subsystem is obtained.

[0142] Specifically, based on the second causal loop, the second relationship between the multiple first variables (main variables) of the population, economic and environmental subsystems is obtained, that is, based on the obtained regulation loop between the population, economic and environmental subsystems, the second relationship between the variables of the multiple subsystems is obtained.

[0143] The present embodiment provides a watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method, which takes into account the causal loops among population, economic and environmental subsystems, and fully considers the importance of population, economic and environmental subsystems as the basic components of watershed sustainable development.

[0144] S306. According to the third causal loop, a third relationship between the variables of the energy subsystem, the forest subsystem and the low-carbon subsystem is obtained.

[0145] Specifically, according to the third causal loop, the third relationship between the multiple first variables (main variables) of the energy subsystem, forest subsystem and low-carbon subsystem is obtained, that is, according to the obtained causal loop between the energy, low-carbon and forest subsystems, the third relationship between the variables of multiple subsystems is obtained.

[0146] The present embodiment provides a watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method, which takes into account the causal loop among energy, forest and low-carbon subsystems, and fully considers the importance of low carbon to the sustainable development of the watershed.

[0147] S307. According to the fourth causal loop, a fourth relationship between the variables of the food subsystem, the disaster subsystem, the economic subsystem and the forest subsystem is obtained.

[0148] Specifically, based on the fourth causal loop, the fourth relationship between the multiple first variables (main variables) of the food subsystem, disaster subsystem, economic subsystem and forest subsystem is obtained. That is, based on the obtained causal loop between food, disasters, economy and forests, the fourth relationship between the variables of multiple subsystems is obtained.

[0149] This embodiment provides a watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method that takes into account the causal loops among food, disasters, economy, water security, and forest subsystems, and fully considers the importance of water security to the evolution of the water security pattern in the watershed.

[0150] S308. Obtain a variable calculation equation for each variable according to the first variable relationship, the second variable relationship, the third variable relationship and the fourth variable relationship.

[0151] Specifically, according to the first relationship of the variables, the second relationship of the variables, the third relationship of the variables and the fourth relationship of the variables, a variable calculation equation of each first variable is obtained.

[0152] The present embodiment provides a watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method, which comprehensively considers the influence and feedback of factors among multiple subsystems and integrates the relationships between multiple variables, so that the construction of the final watershed sustainable development model is more complete.

[0153] S309: construct a watershed sustainable development model according to the variable calculation equation of each first variable, so as to obtain a sustainable development scenario simulation result of the watershed according to the scenario simulation of the watershed sustainable development model.

[0154] Specifically, a sustainable development model is constructed based on the variable calculation equation of each first variable. Based on the sustainable development model, scenario simulation can be carried out to obtain the results of multi-factor coupled development in the basin.

[0155] In one possible design, after constructing the watershed sustainable development model based on the variable calculation equations for each first variable, the method further includes:

[0156] A scenario simulation is performed on the basin sustainable development model to obtain a simulation result of each first variable of each subsystem, wherein each simulation result is used to indicate the development of the corresponding first variable.

[0157] Specifically, by conducting scenario simulation on the sustainable development model, we can obtain the simulation results of each variable in each subsystem, and the simulation results can indicate the development of the corresponding variables.

[0158] The present embodiment provides a watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method, which can perform scenario simulation on a model that couples multiple factors, so that watershed analysis issues are considered more comprehensively and accurately.

[0159] For the convenience of explanation, a specific embodiment is introduced here:

[0160] As a complex giant system, the system elements and interaction relationships involved in the sustainable development of the river basin are complex and difficult to consider comprehensively. Therefore, based on the analysis of the main characteristics of the system, the non-key elements of the system are appropriately simplified.

[0161] A subsystem set is established, wherein the subsystem set includes: population subsystem and economic subsystem, as well as environmental subsystem, resource subsystem, low-carbon subsystem and disaster subsystem.

[0162] Get the relationship between each subsystem and the system variables of each subsystem, that is, get the relationship between each subsystem and the main variables of each subsystem:

[0163] The population subsystem studies the changes in the total permanent population, age structure and quality of the population under certain economic, resource and environmental conditions. System variables include the number of people of each age group, the number of births and deaths, as well as the total fertility rate, the male-female ratio, the urbanization rate, life expectancy and the average years of education. The population subsystem establishes a feedback relationship with the economic, food, energy and environmental subsystems.

[0164] The economic subsystem studies the total economic volume (real GDP, hereinafter referred to as GDP), capital stock and changes in industrial structure. System variables include per capita GDP, labor input, human capital, capital stock, investment rate, proportion of production expenditure and proportion of the three major industries. The economic subsystem establishes a feedback relationship with subsystems such as population, forest, energy and environment.

[0165] The food subsystem studies the changes in food output and cultivated land area under the influence of food production factors and cultivated land conditions. The system variables include food output per unit area, cultivated land area, per capita food output and food security input. The food subsystem establishes a feedback relationship with the population, forest and disaster subsystems.

[0166] The forest subsystem studies the changes in forest area when forest coverage is the control target. System variables include afforestation input, forest area and forest coverage, etc. The forest subsystem establishes a feedback relationship with the economic, food and low-carbon subsystems.

[0167] The energy subsystem studies the changes in energy consumption and its consumption structure, and divides energy consumption into two categories: production energy consumption and life energy consumption. System variables include per capita total energy consumption, production energy consumption intensity corresponding to the three types of industries, and per capita life energy consumption. The energy subsystem establishes a feedback relationship with the economic and low-carbon subsystems.

[0168] The low-carbon subsystem studies the changes in carbon emissions and carbon absorption in each province. The system variables include energy carbon emissions and forest carbon absorption. The low-carbon subsystem establishes a feedback relationship with the energy and forest subsystems.

[0169] The environmental subsystem studies the discharge and treatment of typical water pollutants, and divides the pollution sources into three categories: domestic sources, industrial sources and agricultural sources. The system variables include per capita domestic sewage (industrial wastewater) discharge, domestic (industrial, agricultural) source pollutant emissions, treatment rate, cross-section pollutant concentration, water quality compliance rate and environmental governance investment. The environmental subsystem establishes a feedback relationship with the population and economic subsystems.

[0170] The disaster subsystem studies the changes in soil erosion and flood and drought disasters. System variables include soil erosion volume, light (moderate, severe) soil erosion area, soil and water management investment, flood (drought) affected area and water safety, etc. The disaster subsystem establishes a feedback relationship with the food and forest subsystems.

[0171] Based on the obtained variables and subsystem sets, a model system framework of the basin's sustainable development model is constructed.

[0172] Obtain causal loops: the first causal loop, the second causal loop, the third causal loop, and the fourth causal loop.

[0173] The first causal loop: Population growth provides more labor to promote economic development. On the one hand, economic development will accelerate the urbanization process to affect the birth rate, thereby inhibiting population growth. On the other hand, it will increase life expectancy to reduce the death rate, thereby promoting population growth. Therefore, a reinforcing loop is formed between the population and the economic system: the total population increases, the labor force increases, which in turn leads to GDP growth, and GDP per capita also grows synchronously, so life expectancy increases, the number of deaths decreases, and the total population increases. And the regulatory loop between the population and the economic system: the total population increases, the labor force increases, which in turn leads to GDP growth, and GDP per capita also grows synchronously, leading to an increase in the urbanization rate, which in turn reduces the birth rate, reduces the number of births, and then reduces the total population.

[0174] In the food subsystem, a decrease in per capita food production will drive an increase in cultivated land through variables, forming a regulatory loop within the food subsystem: a decrease in per capita food production leads to an increase in cultivated land, and an increase in food production leads to an increase in per capita food production. At the same time, an increase in per capita food production will enhance resource security to reduce the mortality rate, while population growth causes a decrease in cultivated land, which in turn inhibits the increase in per capita food production, forming a regulatory loop in the population-food subsystem: an increase in per capita food production increases life expectancy, so the number of deaths decreases, while the total population increases, which in turn reduces cultivated land and reduces food production, resulting in a decrease in per capita food production.

[0175] In the forest subsystem, when the forest coverage rate is lower than the expected target, afforestation investment will be increased to accelerate the growth of forest area. When the forest coverage rate reaches or even exceeds the expected target, afforestation investment will be appropriately reduced to form a regulatory loop within the forest subsystem: when the forest coverage rate does not reach the expected target, afforestation investment will be appropriately increased, and the afforestation area will be increased, and then the forest area will also increase, resulting in an increase in forest coverage rate.

[0176] In the energy subsystem, population growth and economic development will promote living and production energy consumption to increase the total energy consumption, while the increase in per capita energy consumption leads to resource consumption affecting population survival, forming a regulation loop of the population-energy system: as per capita energy consumption increases, life expectancy decreases, and the number of deaths decreases, resulting in a decrease in the total population, while living energy consumption decreases, which in turn leads to a decrease in total energy consumption, and therefore per capita energy consumption also decreases; and a regulation loop of the economy-energy system: as per capita energy consumption increases, life expectancy decreases, and the number of deaths increases, resulting in a decrease in the total population and a decrease in GDP, while production energy consumption decreases, which in turn leads to a decrease in total energy consumption, and therefore per capita energy consumption also decreases. Figure 4 This is the first causal loop diagram of the basin sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in the embodiment of the present application. The first causal loop can be as follows Figure 4 shown.

[0177] Second causal loop: The population-economy-environment subsystem is the basic component of the sustainable development of the watershed. The system selects chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total phosphorus (TP) as typical environmental pollutants to describe pollution emissions and environmental governance. Therefore, the following loops may exist:

[0178] Population and economic development have led to sewage and pollutant emissions, which have put tremendous pressure on the environment. Environmental pollution will also threaten population survival and affect economic development, forming a regulatory loop of the population-economy-environment system: as population increases and GDP grows, per capita domestic sewage (industrial wastewater) emissions increase, and then domestic sewage (industrial wastewater) emissions also increase, and pollutant emissions from domestic sources (industrial sources) also increase, which in turn leads to an increase in per capita pollutant emissions, a decrease in life expectancy, a decrease in the number of deaths, and a decrease in the total population, which leads to a decrease in GDP.

[0179] When the water quality of a section is obviously not up to standard, it is urgent to strengthen pollutant control to reduce pollutant emissions, thereby improving the compliance rate of water quality in the section and forming a regulation loop within the environmental subsystem: when the control rate is low, pollutant emissions from domestic sources (industrial sources) increase, and then pollutant emissions increase, pollutant concentrations in the section increase, and the compliance rate of water quality in the section decreases. Therefore, the control rate is improved through environmental strategy influence. Figure 5 This is a second causal loop diagram of the basin sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in the embodiment of the present application. The second causal loop can be as follows Figure 5 shown.

[0180] The third causal loop: Low carbon is an inevitable requirement for achieving sustainable development of the watershed. The low carbon subsystem mainly considers carbon emissions from energy consumption and carbon absorption from forests. Therefore, the following loops may exist:

[0181] When net carbon emissions are too high, carbon emissions from energy consumption can be reduced by lowering the intensity of production energy consumption, reducing per capita life energy consumption, and adjusting the energy consumption structure, thereby forming a regulation loop for the energy-low-carbon system: when net carbon emissions are too high, the intensity of production energy consumption and per capita life energy consumption are reduced, thereby reducing the total energy consumption and reducing carbon emissions from energy consumption, resulting in a reduction in net carbon emissions.

[0182] When net carbon emissions are too high, the forest area can be increased by increasing afforestation inputs, thereby increasing forest carbon sinks and forming a regulatory loop of the forest-low-carbon system: when net carbon emissions are too high, afforestation inputs will increase, the afforestation area will increase, and therefore forest carbon absorption will also increase, while net carbon emissions will decrease. Figure 6This is the third causal loop diagram of the basin sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in the embodiment of the present application. The third causal loop can be as follows Figure 6 shown.

[0183] The fourth causal loop: Water security is an important guarantee for maintaining the sustainable development of the basin. The system mainly reflects the evolution of the basin water security pattern under the influence of soil erosion and floods and droughts by constructing water security indicators. Therefore, there are the following causal loops:

[0184] When water security improves, grain production can be increased by reducing the area of ​​cultivated land affected by water and drought, thereby accelerating the conversion of farmland to forest and grassland to reduce soil erosion, giving full play to the comprehensive regulation and storage role of water conservancy projects, further improving water security, and forming a reinforcing loop of the food-disaster system: when water security improves, the area affected by water and drought decreases, grain production increases, and per capita grain production increases, accelerating the conversion of farmland to forest and grassland, and thus increasing the area of ​​returning farmland to forest and grassland, resulting in a reduction in the area of ​​soil erosion, a reduction in the amount of soil erosion, a reduction in the amount of siltation, and an increase in the regulation and storage capacity of water conservancy projects, resulting in an increase in water security.

[0185] Soil and water loss can be controlled through measures such as afforestation, which can promote water security. However, excessive soil and water conservation will also affect economic development, which in turn affects afforestation investment, forming a regulatory loop of the economic-forest-disaster system: when the amount of soil and water loss is large, soil and water conservation investment will increase, capital stock will decrease, and GDP will decrease, afforestation investment will also decrease, the afforestation area will decrease, and soil and water loss will increase. Figure 7 This is the fourth causal loop diagram of the basin sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in the embodiment of the present application. The fourth causal loop can be as follows Figure 7 shown.

[0186] According to the causal loop and the multiple first variables of each subsystem, variable calculation equations of the multiple first variables of each subsystem are obtained.

[0187] Variable equations for the population subsystem:

[0188] The population subsystem adopts the population age transfer model to predict the population size and age structure. Taking the initial population of each age group (1-100 years old) as the base, the population size of each age group is recursively predicted year by year based on the fertility rate and mortality rate parameters. The total fertility rate and life expectancy parameters are used to establish relevant empirical formulas based on historical data using regression analysis methods. At the same time, the average years of education of all age groups are used to represent the quality of the population, and calculations are made based on the linear growth assumption.

[0189] The main equations of the population subsystem include:

[0190] Population: x(t+1)=H(t)x(t)+B(t)x(t)

[0191] Birth rate: b j =(1-u0(t))×β(t)×K×h j (t)

[0192] Fertility rate: β(t) = c0 + c1 × agdp - c2 × picty

[0193] Life Expectancy:

[0194]

[0195] LE(t)=d0+d1×agdp+d2×afd-d3×aeut-d4×apt

[0196] Years of education: ys(t+1)=ys(t)+m

[0197] In the formula, x(t)=[x0(t), x1(t),…,x 100 (t)] is the population state vector corresponding to year t, which is composed of the population of each age group; B(t) is the population fertility matrix, where b j (t) is the age-specific birth rate, β(t) is the total fertility rate, and the variables affecting the total fertility rate include GDP per capita agdp, urbanization rate picty, K is the proportion of women, h j (t) is the fertility rate of women of childbearing age (15-49 years old); H(t) is the population state transition matrix, where u i (t) is the age-specific mortality rate, and u0(t) is the neonatal mortality rate, which can be inferred from the life expectancy of LE. The variables affecting life expectancy include per capita GDP agdp, per capita food output afd, per capita energy consumption aeut and per capita pollutant (TP) emissions apt; ys is the average years of education, and the others are constant coefficients.

[0198] in,

[0199]

[0200] Variable equations of the economic subsystem:

[0201] The economic subsystem uses the Cobb-Douglas production function to calculate the long-term changes in GDP and capital stock.

[0202] The main equations of the economic subsystem include:

[0203] Production function: Y = AK a L β

[0204] Technological progress rate: A t =A t-1×(1+ga)

[0205] Capital stock: k t =(1-δ)×k t-1 +s×Y t-1

[0206] Investment rate: s = 1-(e0+e)

[0207] Labor input: L = h × Pop 15-60

[0208] Human capital:

[0209]

[0210] In the formula, Y is GDP, A is total factor productivity, then A t is the total factor productivity corresponding to year t, A t-1 is the total factor productivity corresponding to year t-1, ga is the rate of technological progress, a and β are the capital and labor elasticity coefficients respectively (assuming that the scale returns remain unchanged, that is, a+β=1), k is the capital stock, δ is the depreciation rate (generally taken as 0.9), s is the investment rate, e0 is the fixed ratio of expenditure outside the system boundary to GDP, e is the ratio of expenditure of each subsystem to GDP, L is the labor input, Pop 15-60 is the population aged 15-60, that is, the labor force, and h is human capital, expressed as a function of the average years of education ys.

[0211] Variable equations for the food subsystem:

[0212] Assuming that the ratio of grain planting area to cultivated land area remains unchanged in the grain subsystem, grain output is mainly affected by cultivated land area, grain output per unit area and multiple cropping index.

[0213] The main variable equations of the food subsystem include:

[0214] Grain yield per unit area:

[0215]

[0216] Cultivated land area: LA t =LA t-1 -LAD+LAB-LARD

[0217] Food production: FT = a × [(LA-LAB) + b × LAB] × FPA × RI

[0218] Food security inputs:

[0219]

[0220] Where FT is the total grain output, FPA is the grain output per unit area, RI is the multiple cropping index, LA is the cultivated land area, LADP is the proportion of water and drought disaster areas, FPCT is the amount of fertilizer applied per unit area, FPWP is the proportion of irrigated area, FPMP is the proportion of mechanized farming area, FPMT is the average application of farmyard manure, FPAD is the comprehensive price index of industrial and agricultural commodities, D is a strategy adjustment variable, which takes 1 when the grain self-sufficiency rate is low, otherwise it takes 0, LAD is the cultivated land area reduced due to population growth, LAB is the cultivated land area supplemented, LARD is the area of ​​returning farmland to forest and grassland, k1 and k2 are the costs of protecting and supplementing cultivated land per unit area, Y is GDP, and the others are constant coefficients.

[0221] Forest subsystem variable equations:

[0222] The forest subsystem studies the changes in forest area and uses the expected target of forest coverage (the ratio of forest area to national land area) to influence afforestation investment.

[0223] The main variable equations of the forest subsystem include:

[0224] Forest area:

[0225]

[0226] Afforestation investment:

[0227]

[0228] In the formula, SM is the forest area, snd is the natural change rate of forest area, e forest is the afforestation input, PAG is the afforestation cost per unit area, LARD is the area of ​​returning farmland to forest or grassland, Y is GDP, SFL is the forest coverage rate, QSFL is the expected forest coverage rate target, and the others are constant coefficients.

[0229] Main variable equations of energy subsystem:

[0230] The energy subsystem divides energy consumption into production energy consumption and living energy consumption. The production energy consumption is calculated by multiplying the output value of the three industries in the economic subsystem by the corresponding energy consumption intensity, and the living energy consumption is calculated by multiplying the population of the population subsystem by the per capita living energy consumption. The energy consumption structure is described by the ratio of each type of energy consumption to the total.

[0231] Main variable equations of energy subsystem:

[0232] Energy consumption: EU = EUP + EUL

[0233] Production energy: EUP = EUPI1×Y1+EUPI2×Y2+EUPI3×Y3

[0234] Life Energy: EUL=Pop×EULA

[0235] In the formula, EU is the total energy consumption, EUP is the production energy consumption, EUL is the living energy consumption, and Y i The output value of the three major industries, EUPI i is the energy consumption intensity corresponding to the three major industries, Pop is the population, and EULA is the per capita living energy consumption.

[0236] Low carbon subsystem variable equation:

[0237] The low-carbon subsystem assumes that the ratio of carbon emissions from energy consumption to total emissions and the ratio of forest carbon absorption to total absorption remain unchanged; carbon emissions from energy consumption are calculated using the emission factor method provided in the IPCC guidelines, while forest carbon absorption estimates the changes in forest carbon stocks based on forest carbon density and forest area.

[0238] The main variable equations of the low-carbon subsystem include:

[0239] Net Carbon Emissions:

[0240]

[0241] Energy carbon emissions: CEME = ∑EU i ×F i

[0242] Forest carbon absorption: CABF = SM × V

[0243] In the formula, NCEM is net carbon emissions, CEME is energy carbon emissions, CABF is forest carbon absorption, EU i is the energy consumption of each type, F i is the carbon emission coefficient corresponding to each type of energy, SM is the forest area, V is the forest carbon density, and the others are constant coefficients.

[0244] Main variable equations of the environmental subsystem:

[0245] The environmental subsystem divides pollution sources into three categories: domestic sources, industrial sources, and agricultural sources. First, the regression analysis method is used to establish a relationship based on per capita GDP to predict the per capita domestic sewage and industrial wastewater discharge. Then, the pollutant discharge concentrations of domestic and industrial sources can be used to obtain the pollutant discharge of the corresponding sources, while agricultural source pollutants are mainly calculated based on the fertilizer application amount of the grain subsystem. Finally, the water quality changes of the main sections within each province are calculated based on the pollutant discharge, and the water quality compliance rate of the sections within each province is obtained.

[0246] The main variable equations of the environmental subsystem include:

[0247] Sewage discharge: WP = WPA i ×Pop+WPA d ×Pop

[0248] Per capita domestic sewage (industrial wastewater):

[0249]

[0250] Pollutant emissions: LP = LP l +LP d +LP a

[0251] Pollutants from living sources (industrial sources): LP i =(Pdeal×dP i +(1-Pdeal)×zP i )×WP i

[0252] Pollutants from agricultural sources: LP a =d×FPCT×[(LA-LAB)+k×LAB]×river

[0253] Environmental governance investment:

[0254]

[0255] Pollutant concentration:

[0256]

[0257] In the formula, WP is the sewage discharge, WPA is i , WPA d is the per capita domestic sewage and industrial wastewater discharge, Pop is the total population, agdp is the per capita GDP, LP is the pollutant discharge, LP l LP d LP a is the emission from domestic, industrial and agricultural sources, Pdeal is the treatment rate, dP i is the emission concentration that meets the standards after the pollution from living sources (industrial sources) is treated, zP i is the pollutant emission concentration of living sources (industrial sources), FPCT is the fertilizer application per unit area, LA is the cultivated land area, LAB is the supplementary cultivated land area, river is the coefficient of agricultural source pollution entering the river, ΔLP l , ΔLP d , ΔLP a is the amount of emissions reduced after the treatment of domestic, industrial and agricultural sources, p and q are the unit cost of pollutant treatment of domestic (industrial) and agricultural sources, Y is GDP, C is the pollutant concentration of the control unit, P in , Pj Q is the amount of pollutants entering the river from the cell interior and upstream, in is the sewage discharge in the section control unit, Q j is the upstream water volume of the cross-section control unit, x is the transport distance, u is the river flow velocity, k is the pollutant degradation coefficient, and the others are constant coefficients.

[0258] The main variable equation of the disaster subsystem:

[0259] The disaster subsystem studies soil erosion and water and drought disasters, thereby reflecting the evolution of the water security pattern in the basin. In order to characterize the water security status, a water security index is constructed to reflect the changes in the water security status affected by water and drought disasters and soil erosion.

[0260] The main variable equations of the disaster subsystem include:

[0261] Soil and water loss: TERS = ERAL × M1 + ERAD × M2 + ERAW × M3

[0262] Area with mild soil erosion: ERAL t =ERAL t-1 -α1×SZM+ε1LAB

[0263] Area with moderate soil erosion:

[0264] ERAD t =ERAD t-1 -α2×SZM-β2×LARD+ε2LAB

[0265] Area of ​​severe soil erosion and above: ERAW t =ERAW t-1 -α3×SZM-β2×LARD

[0266] Investment in soil and water conservation:

[0267]

[0268] Flood-affected area:

[0269]

[0270] Area affected by drought:

[0271]

[0272] Flood and drought affected area index:

[0273]

[0274] Water safety:

[0275]

[0276] Reservoir storage capacity:

[0277]

[0278] Reservoir regulation capacity:

[0279] Rα i =Rα i -k i ×sp×TERS

[0280] Where TERS is the amount of soil erosion, ERAL, ERAD, and ERAW are the areas of mild, moderate, severe, and above soil erosion, respectively, SZM is the afforestation area, LARD is the area of ​​returning farmland to forest and grassland, LAB is the area of ​​cultivated land supplemented according to the balance of cultivated land proportion, and M i is the soil erosion modulus corresponding to mild, moderate, severe and above, e soil is the input of soil and water conservation, k is the cost of soil and water loss control per unit, Y is GDP; LAFD and LADD are the flood and drought-affected areas, FDA and DDA are the average flood and drought-affected areas in the past ten years, LA is the cultivated land area, LADP is the flood and drought disaster area index, t is the simulation time, nrnd is a random number in the interval [-1, 1], sd is the water safety, RC is a parameter indicating the reservoir storage capacity, bc is the flood control standard of the embankment (such as 1% for a 100-year event), fdp and ddp are the proportions of flood and drought disaster areas; Rα i Vr is the effective regulation capacity of each reservoir in the region. i is the annual runoff of each reservoir, Sr i is the catchment area corresponding to each reservoir, Sα is the catchment area of ​​the basin, TERS is the amount of soil erosion, sp is the sediment yield coefficient, and the others are constant coefficients.

[0281] According to the variable calculation equation of each variable, a sustainable development model is constructed so that according to the scenario simulation of the sustainable development model, simulation results of different development scenarios of the basin can be obtained.

[0282] After the model is built, it is necessary to test the validity and stability of the model, and conduct historical tests and sensitivity tests in turn. Historical test: Considering the availability of historical data, this embodiment tests two level variables with relatively complete data, namely, total population and actual GDP. The results show that the average relative error between the simulated values ​​and historical values ​​of total population and actual GDP is within 5%, and the maximum error is within ±10%, indicating that the model has a high degree of fit and can accurately describe the basic status of the research system, verifying the validity of the model. Sensitivity test: This embodiment selects the ratio of men to women, the initial value of life expectancy, the capital depreciation rate and the growth rate of years of education as sensitive parameters for testing, and examines the changes in total population and GDP when the parameters are changed within the range of ±20% under the baseline scenario. The results show that the sensitivity parameters change within a reasonable range (±20%), and the total population and GDP do not produce large fluctuations, indicating that the system is not highly sensitive to parameter changes and the model has good stability.

[0283] The scenario simulation of the basin sustainable development model is carried out to obtain the simulation results.

[0284] Starting from the three scenario dimensions of development, protection, and security, the model designed three scenarios with different development strategies: economic growth priority, environmental protection priority, and security priority (each category includes two specific scenarios, a total of six scenarios), as shown in Table 1. In the economic growth priority scenario, we will increase economic growth and energy consumption on the basis of the baseline scenario, increase the relevant parameters affecting GDP growth and energy consumption by 10% and 20%, and all other parameters remain unchanged; this type of scenario represents the situation where economic growth is prioritized and no additional efforts are made to improve the ecological environment and security of the basin. In the environmental input priority scenario, it is assumed that more investment will be made in afforestation, water pollution control, soil and water loss control, etc., and the corresponding control rate or control target parameters will be improved; this type of scenario represents the emphasis on ecological and environmental protection, and more development resources will be invested in the ecological protection and environmental governance of the basin. In the security priority scenario, it is assumed that more investment will be made in flood and drought disaster prevention and food security, and the relevant parameters of water conservancy projects and cultivated land resources will be improved; this type of scenario represents the emphasis on water security and food security in the basin, and more development resources will be invested in them.

[0285] Table 1 Basin scenario design table:

[0286]

[0287] Since the model involves many subsystems and their variables, only the simulation results of key variables of some subsystems are selected as examples to briefly explain the multi-scenario simulation results of the model.

[0288] Figure 8This is a simulation diagram of different scenarios of per capita GDP for the basin sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in the embodiment of the present application. Figure 8 As shown, FIG801 is a diagram of the simulation results of the baseline scenario, FIG802 is a diagram of the economic growth priority scenario of 20%, FIG803 is a diagram of the environmental protection priority scenario of 10%, FIG804 is a diagram of the environmental protection priority scenario of 20%, and FIG805 is a diagram of the simulation results of the GDP per capita of 20% under the security priority scenario.

[0289] Fig. 9 This is a simulation diagram of different energy consumption scenarios of the basin sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in the embodiment of the present application. Fig. 9 As shown in the figure, 901 is a simulation result diagram of per capita energy consumption in the baseline scenario, 902 is a 20% scenario in the economic growth priority scenario, 903 is a 10% scenario in the environmental protection priority scenario, 904 is a 20% scenario in the environmental protection priority scenario, and 905 is a 20% scenario in the security priority scenario. As shown in the figure, the simulation results of 901, 903, 904 and 905 are similar over time, indicating that in the economic growth priority scenario, the per capita energy consumption changes more significantly, and the simulation results in other scenarios are similar.

[0290] Fig.10 This is a simulation diagram of different total phosphorus scenarios of the basin sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in the embodiment of the present application. Fig.10 As shown, 1001 is a diagram of the simulation results of TP emissions under the baseline scenario, 1002 is a diagram of 20% under the economic growth priority scenario, 1003 is a diagram of the security priority scenario, 1004 is a diagram of 10% under the environmental protection priority scenario, and 1005 is a diagram of 20% under the environmental protection priority scenario.

[0291] Fig.11 This is a simulation diagram of different scenarios of forest coverage rate for the watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in the embodiment of the present application. Fig.11 As shown in the figure, 1101 is a simulation result diagram of forest coverage under the baseline scenario, 1102 is a simulation result of 20% under the environmental protection priority scenario, 1103 is a simulation result of 10% under the environmental protection priority scenario, 1104 is a simulation result of 20% under the security priority scenario, and 1105 is a simulation result of 20% under the economic growth priority scenario. The simulation results of 1101 and 1103 are consistent, which means that the simulation results of forest coverage under the environmental protection priority scenario are consistent with those under the baseline scenario.

[0292] Fig.12 This is a simulation diagram of different water safety scenarios of the basin sustainable development scenario simulation method provided in the embodiment of the present application. Fig.12As shown, 1201 is a diagram of the simulation results of water security under the baseline scenario, 1202 is 10% under the security priority scenario, 1203 is 20% under the security priority scenario, 1204 is 20% under the environmental protection priority scenario, and 1205 is 20% under the economic growth priority scenario.

[0293] Taking the simulation results of the main variables of some subsystems (GDP per capita, energy consumption per capita, TP emissions, forest coverage and water security) as examples, a variety of basin scenarios are analyzed: in the scenario of economic growth priority, the total economic volume and energy consumption are significantly improved compared with the baseline scenario, while TP emissions, forest coverage and water security are reduced compared with the baseline scenario, and the decline rate decreases over time, that is, the economic growth priority scenario is generally unfavorable to the sustainable development of the basin, but on the basis of years of cumulative improvement in economic level, the positive effect on the sustainable development of the basin will offset the negative impact; in the scenario of environmental protection priority, the total economic volume is lower than the baseline scenario, but the baseline scenarios such as TP emissions and forest coverage are significantly reduced, indicating that the scenario of environmental protection priority has a significant positive effect on the sustainable development of the basin, and the greater the environmental investment, the more significant the role of sustainable development; in the scenario of security priority, water security is improved to a certain extent compared with the baseline scenario, and other first variables are consistent with the baseline scenario, indicating that the role of security priority on the sustainable development of the basin is limited.

[0294] The embodiment of the present invention can divide the electronic device or the main control device into functional modules according to the above method example. For example, each functional module can be divided according to each function, or two or more functions can be integrated into one processing unit. The above integrated unit can be implemented in the form of hardware or in the form of software functional modules. It should be noted that the division of modules in the embodiment of the present invention is schematic and is only a logical function division. There may be other division methods in actual implementation.

[0295] Fig.13 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of the watershed sustainable development scenario simulation device provided in the embodiment of the present application. Fig.13 As shown, the watershed sustainable development scenario simulation device includes: a collection module 210, a framework module 220, an equation module 230 and a construction module 240.

[0296] The collection module 210 is used to establish a subsystem collection and obtain the relationship between each subsystem and multiple first variables of each subsystem; wherein the subsystem collection includes: population subsystem, economic subsystem, environmental subsystem, resource subsystem, low carbon subsystem and disaster subsystem;

[0297] The framework module 220 is used to construct a watershed sustainable development model system framework according to the subsystem set and a plurality of first variables of each subsystem; wherein the watershed sustainable development model system framework is a system dynamics model framework;

[0298] The equation module 230 is used to obtain a causal loop, and obtain a variable calculation equation of the multiple first variables of each subsystem according to the causal loop and the multiple first variables of each subsystem; wherein the causal loop refers to the feedback relationship between the multiple subsystems, or the feedback relationship within the subsystem, and the causal loop is obtained according to the system framework of the watershed sustainable development model;

[0299] The construction module 240 is used to construct a watershed sustainable development model according to the variable calculation equation of each first variable, so as to obtain a sustainable development scenario simulation result of the watershed according to the scenario simulation of the watershed sustainable development model.

[0300] In a possible design, resources include food resources, forest resources and energy resources, and the resource subsystem includes food subsystem, forest subsystem and energy subsystem.

[0301] In one possible design, the feedback relationships between multiple subsystems include:

[0302] The feedback relationship between the population subsystem and the economic subsystem, food subsystem, energy subsystem and environmental subsystem;

[0303] Feedback relationships between the economic subsystem and the population subsystem, forest subsystem, energy subsystem, and environmental subsystem;

[0304] Feedback relationships between the food subsystem and the population subsystem, forest subsystem, and disaster subsystem;

[0305] Feedback relationships between the forest subsystem and the economic subsystem, food subsystem and low-carbon subsystem;

[0306] The feedback relationship between the energy subsystem and the economic and low-carbon subsystems;

[0307] The feedback relationship between the low-carbon subsystem and the energy and forest subsystems;

[0308] Feedback relationships between the environmental subsystem and the population and economic subsystems;

[0309] Feedback relationships between the disaster subsystem and the food and forest subsystems.

[0310] In a possible design, the causal loop includes: a first causal loop, a second causal loop, a third causal loop and a fourth causal loop; wherein the first causal loop is used to indicate the causal loop relationship between the population subsystem, the economic subsystem and the resource subsystem; the second causal loop is used to indicate the causal loop relationship between the population subsystem, the economic subsystem and the environmental subsystem; the third causal loop is used to indicate the causal loop relationship between the energy subsystem, the forest subsystem and the low-carbon subsystem; the fourth causal loop is used to indicate the causal loop relationship between the food subsystem, the disaster subsystem, the economic subsystem and the forest subsystem.

[0311] In a possible design, the first causal loop specifically includes: the reinforcement loop and the regulation loop between the population subsystem and the economic subsystem, the regulation loop within the food subsystem, the regulation loop between the population subsystem and the food subsystem, the regulation loop within the forest subsystem, the regulation loop between the population subsystem and the energy subsystem, and the regulation loop between the economic subsystem and the energy subsystem;

[0312] The second causal loop specifically includes: the regulatory loops among the population subsystem, the economic subsystem, and the environmental subsystem, as well as the regulatory loop within the environmental subsystem;

[0313] The third causal loop specifically includes: the regulatory loop between the energy subsystem and the low-carbon subsystem, and the regulatory loop between the forest subsystem and the low-carbon subsystem;

[0314] The fourth causal loop specifically includes: the reinforcement loop between the food subsystem and the disaster subsystem, and the regulation loop between the economic subsystem, the forest subsystem and the disaster subsystem.

[0315] In one possible design, equation module 230 includes:

[0316] A variable first module, used for obtaining variable first relationships among a plurality of first variables of the population subsystem, the economic subsystem and the resource subsystem according to the first causal loop;

[0317] A variable second module, used for obtaining a variable second relationship between a plurality of first variables of each of the population subsystem, the economic subsystem and the environmental subsystem according to the second causal loop;

[0318] A variable third module is used to obtain a variable third relationship between a plurality of first variables of each of the energy subsystem, the forest subsystem and the low-carbon subsystem according to the third causal loop;

[0319] A fourth variable module is used to obtain a fourth variable relationship between a plurality of first variables of each of the food subsystem, the disaster subsystem, the economic subsystem and the forest subsystem according to a fourth causal loop;

[0320] The variable equation module is used to obtain the variable calculation equation of each variable according to the first variable relationship, the second variable relationship, the third variable relationship and the fourth variable relationship.

[0321] In a possible design, the basin sustainable development scenario simulation device also includes:

[0322] The scenario simulation module is used to perform scenario simulation on the basin sustainable development model to obtain the simulation results of each first variable of each subsystem, wherein each simulation result is used to indicate the development of the corresponding first variable.

[0323] The present embodiment provides a watershed sustainable development scenario simulation device, which can execute the watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method of the above-mentioned embodiment. Its implementation principle and technical effects are similar, and will not be described in detail in this embodiment.

[0324] In the specific implementation of the aforementioned method for simulating a watershed sustainable development scenario, each module can be implemented as a processor, and the processor can execute computer execution instructions stored in the memory, so that the processor executes the aforementioned method for simulating a watershed sustainable development scenario.

[0325] Fig.14 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of the electronic device hardware provided in the embodiment of the present application. Fig.14 As shown, the electronic device includes: at least one processor 310 and a memory 320. The electronic device also includes a communication component 330. The processor 310, the memory 320 and the communication component 330 are connected via a bus 340.

[0326] In the specific implementation process, at least one processor 310 executes the computer execution instructions stored in the memory 320, so that at least one processor 310 executes a watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method executed by the electronic device side as above.

[0327] The specific implementation process of the processor 310 can be found in the above method embodiment, and its implementation principle and technical effect are similar, so this embodiment will not be repeated here.

[0328] In the above embodiments, it should be understood that the processor may be a central processing unit (CPU), or other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSP), application-specific integrated circuits (ASIC), etc. A general-purpose processor may be a microprocessor or any conventional processor. The steps of the method disclosed in the invention may be directly implemented as being executed by a hardware processor, or may be executed by a combination of hardware and software modules in the processor.

[0329] The memory may include a high-speed RAM memory, and may also include a non-volatile storage NVM, such as at least one disk storage.

[0330] The bus may be an Industry Standard Architecture (ISA) bus, a Peripheral Component Interconnect (PCI) bus, or an Extended Industry Standard Architecture (EISA) bus, etc. The bus may be divided into an address bus, a data bus, a control bus, etc. For ease of representation, the bus in the drawings of the present application is not limited to only one bus or one type of bus.

[0331] The above-mentioned functions implemented by the electronic device and the main control device introduce the scheme provided by the embodiment of the present invention. It can be understood that in order to implement the above-mentioned functions, the electronic device or the main control device includes a hardware structure and / or software module corresponding to the execution of each function. In combination with the units and algorithm steps of each example described in the embodiment disclosed in the embodiment of the present invention, the embodiment of the present invention can be implemented in the form of hardware or a combination of hardware and computer software. Whether a function is executed in the form of hardware or computer software driving hardware depends on the specific application and design constraints of the technical solution. Those skilled in the art can use different methods to implement the described functions for each specific application, but such implementation should not be considered to exceed the scope of the technical solution of the embodiment of the present invention.

[0332] The present application also provides a computer-readable storage medium, in which computer-executable instructions are stored. When the computer-executable instructions are executed by a processor, they are used to implement the above-mentioned method for simulating a watershed sustainable development scenario.

[0333] The above-mentioned readable storage medium can be implemented by any type of volatile or non-volatile storage device or a combination thereof, such as static random access memory (SRAM), electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM), programmable read-only memory (PROM), read-only memory (ROM), magnetic memory, flash memory, magnetic disk or optical disk. The readable storage medium can be any available medium that can be accessed by a general or special-purpose computer.

[0334] An exemplary readable storage medium is coupled to a processor so that the processor can read information from the readable storage medium and write information to the readable storage medium. Of course, the readable storage medium can also be a component of the processor. The processor and the readable storage medium can be located in an application specific integrated circuit (Application Specific Integrated Circuits, referred to as: ASIC). Of course, the processor and the readable storage medium can also exist as discrete components in an electronic device or a main control device.

[0335] The present application also provides a computer program product, which includes: a computer program, which is stored in a readable storage medium. At least one processor of an electronic device can read the computer program from the readable storage medium. When the computer program is executed by the processor, it is used to implement the above-mentioned method for simulating a watershed sustainable development scenario.

[0336] Those skilled in the art can understand that all or part of the steps of the above method embodiments can be completed by hardware related to program instructions. The above program can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. When the program is executed, the steps of the above method embodiments are executed; and the above storage medium includes: ROM, RAM, disk or optical disk and other media that can store program codes.

[0337] So far, the technical solution of the present application has been described in conjunction with the preferred embodiments shown in the accompanying drawings. However, it is easy for those skilled in the art to understand that the protection scope of the present application is obviously not limited to these specific embodiments, and the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solution of the present application rather than to limit it. Although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or replace some or all of the technical features therein by equivalents. However, these modifications or replacements do not cause the essence of the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application.

Claims

1. A watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method, characterized in that: The method comprises: Establishing a subsystem set, and obtaining the relationship between each of the subsystems and a plurality of first variables of each of the subsystems; wherein the subsystem set includes: the population subsystem, the economic subsystem, the environmental subsystem, the resource subsystem, the low-carbon subsystem and the disaster subsystem; According to the subsystem set and the multiple first variables of each of the subsystems, a watershed sustainable development model system framework is constructed; wherein the watershed sustainable development model system framework is a system dynamics model framework; Obtaining a causal loop, and obtaining variable calculation equations of the multiple first variables of each subsystem according to the causal loop and the multiple first variables of each subsystem; wherein the causal loop refers to the feedback relationship between the multiple subsystems, or the feedback relationship within the subsystem, and the causal loop is obtained according to the system framework of the watershed sustainable development model; the first variable refers to the main variable of each subsystem; The sustainable development model of the watershed is constructed according to the variable calculation equation of each variable, so as to obtain the sustainable development scenario simulation result of the watershed according to the scenario simulation of the sustainable development model of the watershed.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Resources include food resources, forest resources and energy resources, and the resource subsystem includes a food subsystem, a forest subsystem and an energy subsystem.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The feedback relationship between the plurality of subsystems includes: Feedback relationships between the population subsystem and the economic subsystem, the food subsystem, the energy subsystem and the environmental subsystem; Feedback relationships between the economic subsystem and the population subsystem, the forest subsystem, the energy subsystem, and the environmental subsystem; Feedback relationships between the food subsystem and the population subsystem, the forest subsystem and the disaster subsystem; The feedback relationship between the forest subsystem and the economic subsystem, the food subsystem and the low-carbon subsystem; The feedback relationship between the energy subsystem and the economic subsystem and the low-carbon subsystem; The feedback relationship between the low-carbon subsystem and the energy subsystem and the forest subsystem; The feedback relationship between the environmental subsystem and the population subsystem and the economic subsystem; The feedback relationship between the disaster subsystem and the food subsystem and the forest subsystem.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that The causal loop includes: a first causal loop, a second causal loop, a third causal loop and a fourth causal loop; wherein the first causal loop is used to indicate the causal loop relationship between the population subsystem, the economic subsystem and the resource subsystem; the second causal loop is used to indicate the causal loop relationship between the population subsystem, the economic subsystem and the environmental subsystem; the third causal loop is used to indicate the causal loop relationship between the energy subsystem, the forest subsystem and the low-carbon subsystem; the fourth causal loop is used to indicate the causal loop relationship between the food subsystem, the disaster subsystem, the economic subsystem and the forest subsystem.

5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that The first causal loop specifically includes: a reinforcement loop and a regulation loop between the population subsystem and the economic subsystem, a regulation loop within the food subsystem, a regulation loop between the population subsystem and the food subsystem, a regulation loop within the forest subsystem, a regulation loop between the population subsystem and the energy subsystem, and a regulation loop between the economic subsystem and the energy subsystem; The second causal loop specifically includes: a regulation loop among the population subsystem, the economic subsystem and the environmental subsystem, and a regulation loop within the environmental subsystem; The third causal loop specifically includes: a regulation loop between the energy subsystem and the low-carbon subsystem, and a regulation loop between the forest subsystem and the low-carbon subsystem; The fourth causal loop specifically includes: a reinforcement loop between the food subsystem and the disaster subsystem, and a regulation loop between the economic subsystem, the forest subsystem and the disaster subsystem.

6. The method according to any one of claims 3 to 5, characterized in that: The step of obtaining variable calculation equations of the plurality of first variables of each of the subsystems according to the causal loop and the plurality of first variables of each of the subsystems comprises: According to the first causal loop, a first variable relationship among a plurality of first variables of the population subsystem, the economic subsystem and the resource subsystem is obtained; According to the second causal loop, a second variable relationship between a plurality of first variables of the population subsystem, the economic subsystem and the environmental subsystem is obtained; According to the third causal loop, a third variable relationship among a plurality of first variables of the energy subsystem, the forest subsystem and the low-carbon subsystem is obtained; According to the fourth causal loop, a fourth variable relationship among the plurality of first variables of the food subsystem, the disaster subsystem, the economic subsystem and the forest subsystem is obtained; According to the first relationship of the variables, the second relationship of the variables, the third relationship of the variables and the fourth relationship of the variables, a variable calculation equation of each variable is obtained.

7. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that After constructing the basin sustainable development model according to the variable calculation equation of each variable, the method further includes: A scenario simulation is performed on the watershed sustainable development model to obtain a simulation result of each of the first variables of each of the subsystems, wherein each of the simulation results is used to indicate the development of the corresponding first variable.

8. A watershed sustainable development scenario simulation device, characterized in that: include: A collection module, used to establish a subsystem collection and obtain the relationship between each of the subsystems and a plurality of first variables of each of the subsystems; wherein the subsystem collection includes: the population subsystem, the economic subsystem, the environmental subsystem, the resource subsystem, the low-carbon subsystem and the disaster subsystem; A framework module is used to construct a watershed sustainable development model system framework according to the subsystem set and a plurality of first variables of each of the subsystems; wherein the watershed sustainable development model system framework is a system dynamics model framework; An equation module, used for obtaining a causal loop, and obtaining a variable calculation equation of the multiple first variables of each of the subsystems according to the causal loop and the multiple first variables of each of the subsystems; wherein the causal loop refers to a feedback relationship between the multiple subsystems, or a feedback relationship within a subsystem, and the causal loop is obtained according to the system framework of the watershed sustainable development model; A construction module is used to construct the basin sustainable development model according to the variable calculation equation of each variable, so as to obtain the sustainable development scenario simulation result of the basin according to the scenario simulation of the basin sustainable development model.

9. An electronic device, characterized in that: include: A processor, and a memory communicatively connected to the processor; The memory stores computer-executable instructions; When the processor executes the computer-executable instructions stored in the memory, it is used to implement a watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The computer-readable storage medium stores computer-executable instructions, which, when executed by a processor, are used to implement a watershed sustainable development scenario simulation method as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

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