Propagation chain construction method and device, storage medium and program product

Abstract

The invention discloses a transmission chain construction method and device, a storage medium and a program product, and relates to the technical field of data processing.The transmission chain construction method comprises the steps that through comprehensive analysis of patient self-described contact information, patient historical track information and disease course time point information in epidemiological investigation, comprehensive transmission risks among all patients are quantified, and the transmission chain construction efficiency is improved; based on this, a propagation chain is constructed; specifically, in consideration of difficulty in comprehensively and truly reflecting a contact relationship between patients by patient self-described information in a real streaming scene, the application gives consideration to clear self-described contact and potential space-time co-occurrence: when a patient self-described does not have a contact relationship with other people, potential contact information between patients is mined from historical track information, and the contact relationship between the patients can be comprehensively and truly reflected by the patient self-described information; and thus, the propagation chain construction accuracy is improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the field of data processing technology, and in particular to a propagation chain construction method, device, storage medium and program product. Background Art

[0002] Currently, the transmission chain of an epidemic is usually estimated based on the time when the investigated patients were infected with the epidemic and the contact history provided by the patients.

[0003] This approach cannot fully explore potential contact information between patients, resulting in the neglect of key transmission paths and potential contacts, leading to low accuracy in constructing the transmission chain. Summary of the invention

[0004] The main purpose of this application is to provide a method, device, storage medium and program product for constructing a propagation chain, aiming to solve the technical problem of low accuracy in constructing a propagation chain.

[0005] To achieve the above purpose, the present application proposes a method for constructing a propagation chain, the method comprising:

[0006] Based on the self-reported information of multiple patients in the epidemiological survey information obtained, determine whether there is a self-reported contact relationship between two patients;

[0007] If there is a self-reported contact relationship, determining the first transmission risk between the two patients with the self-reported contact relationship based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs;

[0008] If there is no self-reported contact relationship, determining a second transmission risk between two patients without a self-reported contact relationship based on the historical trajectory information of the multiple patients;

[0009] Determine a comprehensive transmission risk between the patients based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the disease course time point of each of the patients in the epidemiological survey information;

[0010] Based on the comprehensive transmission risk between each of the patients, a transmission chain is constructed.

[0011] In one embodiment, the historical trajectory information includes the activity location and activity time of each of the patients, and the step of determining the second transmission risk between two patients without self-reported contact relationship based on the historical trajectory information of the multiple patients includes:

[0012] Determining a first impact weight of the location on the second transmission risk based on the location type of the activity location;

[0013] Based on the activity location and activity time, determine a second impact weight of distance on the second transmission risk, and a third impact weight of continuous contact time on the second transmission risk;

[0014] A second transmission risk between the patients is determined based on the first influence weight, the second influence weight, and the third influence weight.

[0015] In one embodiment, the step of determining the second impact weight of distance on the second transmission risk and the third impact weight of continuous contact time on the second transmission risk based on the activity location and activity time includes:

[0016] Based on the activity location and activity time, determining the relative distance of each of the patients at the same time;

[0017] If the relative distance is less than the preset maximum contact distance, determining a second influence weight of the distance on the second propagation risk by using a preset distance decay function, wherein the preset distance decay function is used to characterize the correlation between the distance and the contact probability;

[0018] If the relative distance is less than the preset maximum contact distance, the continuous contact time between the patients is determined based on the activity time, and the third impact weight of the continuous contact time on the second transmission risk is determined through a preset calculation formula, wherein the preset calculation formula is used to characterize the correlation between the continuous contact time and the second transmission risk.

[0019] In one embodiment, the step of determining the first transmission risk between two patients having a self-reported contact relationship based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs further includes:

[0020] Determining, based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs, a fourth impact weight of the contact relationship on the first transmission risk;

[0021] Based on the fourth impact weight and a preset weight parameter, a first transmission risk between the patients is determined, wherein the preset weight parameter is used to characterize the importance of the contact relationship relative to the second transmission risk.

[0022] In one embodiment, the disease course time point includes a confirmed time, and the step of determining the comprehensive transmission risk between the patients based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the disease course time point of each patient in the epidemiological survey information includes:

[0023] Based on the diagnosis time of each of the patients, the fifth impact weight of time on the transmission risk is determined by presetting the generation interval model;

[0024] Based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the fifth impact weight, a comprehensive transmission risk between the patients is determined.

[0025] In one embodiment, the comprehensive transmission risk is used to characterize the target infection probability between patients, and the step of constructing a transmission chain based on the comprehensive transmission risk between each of the patients includes:

[0026] Based on the target infection probability, traverse the patients to determine the first patient with the highest probability of causing infection to each of the patients;

[0027] Based on the first patient, a transmission chain is constructed.

[0028] In one embodiment, the step of constructing a transmission chain based on the first patient includes:

[0029] If there are patients who infect each other among the first patients, then based on the target infection probability, determine the patient with the highest probability of causing infection among the mutually infected patients as the infector;

[0030] Based on the target infection probability, determining a second patient with the highest probability of causing infection to the infected person, wherein the infected person is a patient who is mutually infected with the infected person;

[0031] A transmission chain is constructed based on the first patient, the infected person and the second patient.

[0032] In addition, to achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the present application also proposes a propagation chain construction device, which includes: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, and the computer program is configured to implement the steps of the propagation chain construction method as described above.

[0033] In addition, to achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the present application also proposes a storage medium, which is a computer-readable storage medium, and a computer program is stored on the storage medium. When the computer program is executed by the processor, the steps of the propagation chain construction method described above are implemented.

[0034] In addition, to achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the present application also provides a computer program product, which includes a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the steps of the propagation chain construction method described above.

[0035] One or more technical solutions proposed in this application have at least the following technical effects:

[0036] This application determines whether there is a self-reported contact relationship between the patients based on the self-reported information of multiple patients in the acquired epidemiological survey information. If there is a self-reported contact relationship, the first transmission risk between the two patients with the self-reported contact relationship is determined based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs. Since the patient does not have a comprehensive grasp of his or her own information, the patient's self-reported information cannot fully reflect the patient's transmission chain. If the patient reports that there is a self-reported contact relationship with other people, the first transmission risk between the patients with the self-reported contact relationship can be determined based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs. However, even if the patient reports that there is no contact relationship between him or her and other people, It is still necessary to mine the potential contact information between patients from the historical trajectory information based on the historical trajectory information of the multiple patients, so as to determine the second transmission risk between two patients who do not have a self-reported contact relationship; further, comprehensively consider the impact of the self-reported information, historical trajectory information and epidemiological survey information on the transmission risk of each patient's disease course time point, and determine the comprehensive transmission risk between each patient based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the disease course time point; based on the comprehensive transmission risk between each patient, construct a transmission chain, which can fully mine the potential contact information between patients and improve the accuracy of transmission chain construction. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0037] The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments consistent with the present application and, together with the description, serve to explain the principles of the present application.

[0038] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, for ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying any creative labor.

[0039] Figure 1 A flowchart of the first embodiment of the method for constructing a communication chain of the present application is provided;

[0040] Figure 2 A flow chart of the second embodiment of the method for constructing a communication chain of the present application;

[0041] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of a scenario provided for Example 2 of the method for constructing a communication chain of this application;

[0042] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the module structure of the communication chain construction device of the embodiment of the present application;

[0043] Figure 5This is a schematic diagram of the device structure of the hardware operating environment involved in the propagation chain construction method in the embodiment of the present application.

[0044] The purpose, features and advantages of this application will be further described in conjunction with the embodiments and with reference to the accompanying drawings. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0045] It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the technical solutions of the present application and are not used to limit the present application.

[0046] In order to better understand the technical solution of the present application, a detailed description will be given below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific implementation methods.

[0047] It should be noted that the execution subject of this embodiment can be a computing service device with data processing, network communication and program running functions, such as a tablet computer, a personal computer, a mobile phone, etc., or an electronic device capable of realizing the above functions, a communication chain construction device, etc. The following takes the communication chain construction device as an example to illustrate this embodiment and the following embodiments.

[0048] Based on this, the present application embodiment provides a method for constructing a transmission chain, referring to Figure 1 , Figure 1 This is a flow chart of the first embodiment of the propagation chain construction method of the present application.

[0049] In this embodiment, the transmission chain construction method includes steps S10 to S50:

[0050] Step S10, based on the self-reported information of multiple patients in the acquired epidemiological survey information, determining whether there is a self-reported contact relationship between the patients;

[0051] It should be noted that the transmission chain of an epidemic is currently usually estimated based on the time when the investigated patients were infected with the epidemic and the contact history provided by the patients. However, this method cannot fully explore the potential contact information between patients, resulting in the neglect of key transmission paths and potential contacts, leading to low accuracy in the construction of the transmission chain.

[0052] This embodiment determines whether there is a self-reported contact relationship between the patients based on the self-reported information of multiple patients in the acquired epidemiological survey information, wherein the epidemiological survey information includes basic information of the patients and self-reported information of the patients regarding epidemic infection, and the self-reported information includes health status and medical history, exposure history, social behavior and activity patterns, etc.

[0053] It can be understood that based on the self-reported information, determining whether there is a self-reported contact relationship between patients can be obtained through text analysis and keyword matching. For example, if the self-reported information of patient A includes words such as "living together" and "public transportation", it is determined that there is a self-reported contact relationship between the patients. Otherwise, it is determined that there is no self-reported contact relationship between the patients.

[0054] Step S20, if there is a self-reported contact relationship, determining a first transmission risk between two patients with the self-reported contact relationship based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs;

[0055] In epidemiological surveys, if a patient reports a self-reported contact relationship, then the contact relationship is important information for measuring the transmission risk. Specifically, in order to quantify the impact of the contact relationship on the transmission risk, the first transmission risk between two patients with a self-reported contact relationship can be determined based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs.

[0056] Among them, different contact relationships can correspond to different preset contact types, for example, the contact type can be "living together" or "eating together", etc.; specifically, the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs can be obtained by extracting keywords and analyzing the keywords, for example, the keywords "shopping together in the mall", "at home", etc.

[0057] Furthermore, different contact types correspond to different transmission risks (for example, the transmission risk value ranges from 0 to 1), thereby quantifying the degree of influence of the contact relationship on the transmission risk.

[0058] Specifically, the specific implementation of determining the first transmission risk between two patients with a self-reported contact relationship based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs may be:

[0059] Based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs, determine the fourth impact weight of the contact relationship on the first transmission risk; based on the fourth impact weight and a preset weight parameter, determine the first transmission risk between each of the patients, wherein the preset weight parameter is used to characterize the importance of the contact relationship relative to the second transmission risk.

[0060] Specifically, different weights can be assigned to different types of contact relationships to quantify their impact on the comprehensive transmission risk.

[0061] For example, a higher impact weight can be set for close contact relationships (such as "living together" or "eating together"), and a lower impact weight can be set for contact relationships without exact contact (such as "same time and space"). When there are multiple contact relationships between two patients (for example, two patients are colleagues and live together), the fourth impact weight L k It can be the maximum weight value among multiple contact types:

[0062] L k =max{w(contact_type1),w(contact_type2),…};

[0063] Among them, w(contact_type) is used to represent the weight values ​​of different contact types.

[0064] Further, based on the fourth impact weight and the preset weight parameter, the first transmission risk between the patients is determined. Specifically, the calculation method of the first transmission risk can be expressed as P×L k .

[0065] The preset weight parameter P is used to characterize the importance of the contact relationship relative to the second transmission risk.

[0066] Step S30, if there is no self-reported contact relationship, determining the second transmission risk between two patients without a self-reported contact relationship based on the historical trajectory information of the multiple patients;

[0067] In epidemiological surveys, patients may misreport or fail to report contacts for various reasons, or they may be unable to provide relevant information for people they have had contact with but do not know or understand; therefore, it is inaccurate to judge whether there is contact between patients based solely on this self-reported information.

[0068] Based on this, in the case where there is no self-reported contact relationship, this embodiment needs to further explore potential contact events not provided by the patients themselves based on the historical trajectory information of the multiple patients, so as to supplement and improve the epidemiological survey information and provide a reliable basis for more accurate transmission chain inference.

[0069] Specifically, based on the historical trajectory information, the overlap of each patient in time and space can be determined to measure the potential second transmission risk; based on the historical trajectory information, it can also be determined whether there is any intersection between the trajectories of each patient within a period of time.

[0070] It can be understood that the higher the degree of overlap between patients in time and space, the greater the risk of second transmission; or, the more overlapping parts there are between the trajectories of patients over a period of time, the greater the risk of second transmission; this process takes into account factors in spatial and temporal dimensions, thereby forming a more accurate transmission risk assessment.

[0071] Specifically, the historical trajectory information can be extracted from unstructured epidemiological survey information. Specifically, epidemiological survey information usually records the patient's activity trajectory in the form of natural language. Therefore, epidemiological survey information is usually unstructured. In order to facilitate analysis and calculation, the epidemiological survey information can be parsed through text processing technology to obtain the patient's ID, activity time, activity location and other historical trajectory information. The historical trajectory information is cleaned and formatted, and organized into standardized historical trajectory information according to the patient ID, as shown in Table 1 below.

[0072]

[0073] Table 1. Examples of historical trajectory information in standardized form

[0074] Step S40, determining a comprehensive transmission risk between the patients based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the disease course time point of each patient in the epidemiological survey information;

[0075] It should be noted that since the intergenerational time of virus transmission has a great impact on the transmission risk, in addition to considering the patients' self-reported contact relationships and the overlap of patients in time and space, it is also necessary to consider the impact of intergenerational time on the transmission risk.

[0076] Specifically, the disease course time point of each patient in the epidemiological survey information may be the diagnosis time, infection time, onset time, etc. The specific implementation method of determining the comprehensive transmission risk between the patients based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the disease course time point of each patient in the epidemiological survey information may be:

[0077] Based on the diagnosis time of each of the patients, the fifth impact weight of time on the transmission risk is determined through the preset generation interval model; based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the fifth impact weight, the comprehensive transmission risk between the patients is determined.

[0078] Since there is a generation-interval during the spread of an epidemic, that is, the infection interval between primary cases and secondary cases, the preset generation-interval model can be used to measure the impact of transmission time on the probability of infection; based on the difference between the diagnosis time of two patients, the possibility of infection between two patients can be determined.

[0079] Specifically, the normal distribution model can be used to model the intergenerational interval between potential infectors and infected persons, and the preset intergenerational interval model of the normal distribution is set to P(ΔT), where ΔT is the time difference, μ is the mean, and σ is the standard deviation; assuming that the diagnosis time or onset time of the infector is Ti, the diagnosis time or onset time of the infected person is Tj, and the time difference between the infector and the infected person is ΔT=Tj-Ti, the preset intergenerational interval model is obtained as:

[0080]

[0081] Among them, the probability value r1 is used to measure the possibility of infection between two patients under a certain time difference; in practical applications, the parameters μ and σ can be obtained based on historical studies on the pathological characteristics of the virus and statistical analysis of relevant epidemiological data; the parameters μ and σ respectively reflect the typical time interval and variability of the virus from infection to positive detection in the host. Through the analysis of historical case data and comprehensive consideration of relevant pathological research results, the parameters μ and σ can be objectively estimated, so that the normal distribution model can more accurately simulate the time characteristics of the virus transmission process.

[0082] Therefore, based on the diagnosis time of each of the patients, the fifth impact weight of time on the transmission risk can be accurately determined by presetting the generational interval model.

[0083] The specific implementation method of determining the comprehensive transmission risk between the patients based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the fifth impact weight may be:

[0084] When there is no self-reported contact relationship between two patients, the infection risk between two patients is determined based on the fifth impact weight and the second transmission risk between two patients. When there is a self-reported contact relationship between two patients, the infection risk between two patients is determined based on the first transmission risk and the fifth impact weight between two patients, thereby constructing the transmission chain.

[0085] Specifically, for each potential infector i and infected person j, the comprehensive transmission risk can be expressed by the target transmission probability between patients. Specifically, the target transmission probability can be expressed as:

[0086]

[0087] Furthermore, based on the comprehensive transmission risk between any two patients, the transmission chain of all patients, including those with self-reported contact relationships and those without self-reported contact relationships, can be calculated.

[0088] Step S50, constructing a transmission chain based on the comprehensive transmission risk between the patients.

[0089] Furthermore, if the comprehensive transmission risk between two patients is higher, it is believed that the possibility of infection and being infected between the two patients is higher. By traversing each patient, the transmission chain between patients can be constructed.

[0090] This embodiment determines whether there is a self-reported contact relationship between each of the patients based on the self-reported information of multiple patients in the acquired epidemiological survey information, obtains the historical trajectory information of patients without self-reported contact relationship, and determines the contact relationship between patients with self-reported contact relationship based on the self-reported information; since patients do not have comprehensive knowledge of their own information, the self-reported information of patients cannot fully reflect the patient's transmission chain. If the patient reports that there is a self-reported contact relationship with other people, the contact relationship between patients with self-reported contact relationship can be determined based on the self-reported information. However, even if the patient reports that there is no contact relationship with other people, it is still necessary to further obtain the historical trajectory information of each of the patients and mine the potential contact information between the patients from the historical trajectory information; specifically, based on the historical trajectory information of the multiple patients, the second transmission risk between each pair of patients without self-reported contact relationship is determined, and the transmission chain is constructed based on the comprehensive transmission risk between the patients.

[0091] It can be understood that this embodiment determines whether there is a self-reported contact relationship between each patient based on the self-reported information of multiple patients in the acquired epidemiological survey information. If there is a self-reported contact relationship, then based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs, the first transmission risk between the two patients with the self-reported contact relationship is determined; because the patient does not have comprehensive information about himself, the patient's self-reported information cannot fully reflect the patient's transmission chain. If the patient reports that there is a self-reported contact relationship with other people, then the first transmission risk between the patients with the self-reported contact relationship can be determined based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs; however, even if the patient reports that there is no contact between him and other people Relationship, it is still necessary to mine the potential contact information between patients from the historical trajectory information based on the historical trajectory information of the multiple patients, so as to determine the second transmission risk between any two patients who do not have a self-reported contact relationship; further, comprehensively consider the impact of the self-reported information, historical trajectory information and the time points of the disease course of each patient in the epidemiological survey information on the transmission risk, determine the comprehensive transmission risk between each patient based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the time points of the disease course, and construct a transmission chain based on the comprehensive transmission risk between each patient, which can fully mine the potential contact information between patients and improve the accuracy of transmission chain construction.

[0092] Based on the first embodiment of the present application, in the second embodiment of the present application, the same or similar contents as those in the above-mentioned first embodiment can be referred to the above introduction, and will not be described in detail later. Figure 2 On this basis, the step S30 includes steps S01 to S03:

[0093] Step S01, determining a first impact weight of the location on the second transmission risk based on the location type of the activity location;

[0094] It should be noted that the historical trajectory information includes the activity locations and activity times of each patient; this embodiment aims to analyze the positions of each patient in different time periods based on the activity locations and activity times, determine the overlap of each patient in time and space, and measure the potential risk of transmission.

[0095] Specifically, this embodiment not only considers the overlap of patients in spatial distance and time, but also considers the possibility of contact in different scenarios.

[0096] Among them, different scenarios correspond to different location types, for example, home, workplace, public transportation, etc. For each pair of individuals (for example, patient A and patient B), it can be expressed as shown in Table 2 below; the contact intensity between human bodies corresponding to different scenarios is different, and therefore, the epidemic transmission risks corresponding to different scenarios are different; for example, the epidemic transmission risk in closed places such as home and public transportation is higher than that in open scenarios, and therefore, the first impact weight of the location on the second transmission risk can be determined based on the location type to which the activity location belongs.

[0097]

[0098] Table 2. Spatial and temporal overlap information between individuals

[0099] Specifically, the first impact weights corresponding to different location types can be set according to factors such as the population density, ventilation conditions, and contact possibility of the activity location. At the same time, matching first impact weights can be set for pathogens with different characteristics.

[0100] Step S02, determining a second impact weight of distance on the second transmission risk and a third impact weight of continuous contact time on the second transmission risk based on the activity location and activity time;

[0101] Furthermore, since the contact degree at different distances is different, and the contact degree is different when the continuous contact time is different, based on the activity location and activity time, the positions of the patients in different time periods can be analyzed to determine the overlap of the patients in time and space, such as Figure 3 As shown, a second impact weight of distance on the second transmission risk and a third impact weight of continuous contact time on the second transmission risk are obtained.

[0102] Specifically, the specific implementation of determining the second impact weight of the distance on the second transmission risk and the third impact weight of the continuous contact time on the second transmission risk based on the activity location and activity time may be:

[0103] Based on the activity location and activity time, determine the relative distance between each of the patients at the same time; if the relative distance is less than the preset maximum contact distance, determine the second influence weight of the distance on the second transmission risk through a preset distance decay function, wherein the preset distance decay function is used to characterize the correlation between distance and contact probability; if the relative distance is less than the preset maximum contact distance, determine the continuous contact time between each of the patients based on the activity time, and determine the third influence weight of the continuous contact time on the second transmission risk through a preset calculation formula, wherein the preset calculation formula is used to characterize the correlation between the continuous contact time and the second transmission risk.

[0104] In order to facilitate the determination of the overlap of each patient in time and space, the relative distance d of each patient at the same time can be calculated based on the activity location and activity time, refer to Table 2.

[0105] It should be noted that the preset maximum contact distance is a distance range in which the possibility of contact is considered to exist, that is, if the relative distance between two patients is less than the preset maximum contact distance, it is considered that there is a possibility of contact between the two patients.

[0106] Therefore, since the closer the distance, the greater the contact probability, and vice versa, the smaller the contact probability, a preset distance decay function can be used to characterize the correlation between distance and contact probability. Through the preset distance decay function, the second impact weight of distance on the second transmission risk can be determined.

[0107] Specifically, as the relative distance between individuals increases, the contact probability and transmission risk decrease exponentially. In order to more accurately reflect this phenomenon, the preset distance decay function can be expressed as:

[0108]

[0109] Among them, d is the relative distance between individuals, and Dmax is the preset maximum contact distance.

[0110] Furthermore, in addition to the spatial distance, the continuous contact time between individuals will also affect the transmission probability. Specifically, the continuous contact time between each patient can be calculated based on the activity time (for example, patient A and patient B have continuous contact for 254 minutes at school), refer to Table 2.

[0111] Furthermore, the preset calculation formula can be expressed as:

[0112] w (t) =1-(1-ρ) t ;

[0113] Among them, t is the continuous contact time between individuals, ρ is the time decay factor parameter, and the time decay factor parameter is used to measure the change in the transmissibility of the virus per unit time.

[0114] Step S03: determining a second transmission risk between the patients based on the first impact weight, the second impact weight and the third impact weight.

[0115] Furthermore, based on the first impact weight, the second impact weight and the third impact weight, the second transmission risk between the patients can be determined. The second transmission risk is calculated while comprehensively considering the influence of location type, distance and continuous contact time on the transmission risk. It can accurately reflect the transmission risk and frequency between the patients in the time and space dimensions, thereby accurately reflecting the epidemic transmission risk of each patient in time and space.

[0116] Specifically, if there are multiple contacts between two patients, the weights of multiple contacts can be accumulated to accurately reflect the true risk of second transmission.

[0117]

[0118] Among them, f(d) is the second impact weight, w(t) is the third impact weight, is the average of the first impact weights of patient A and patient B.

[0119] It can be understood that if there are two contacts, the two calculated The results are summed to obtain the second propagation risk.

[0120] Specifically, in order to facilitate the construction of subsequent transmission chains and to improve the storage orderliness of the second transmission risk, a patient × patient matrix can be initialized to store the second transmission risk between each patient. That is, by analyzing the historical trajectory information of all patients, analysis can be performed based on each person's trajectory, thereby objectively quantifying the second transmission risk of each patient in the time and space dimensions. If analysis is only performed based on the trajectories of patients who do not have self-reported contact relationships, it is impossible to obtain a second transmission risk that can be compared with the first transmission risk in the same dimension.

[0121] At the same time, in order to facilitate the subsequent propagation chain inference, the matrix can be standardized. First, the non-zero weight values ​​in the matrix are extracted, and the weights are nonlinearly normalized by applying a logarithmic transformation so that their range is normalized to between 0 and 1. This standardization process can effectively reduce the impact of extreme values, making the matrix smoother and easier to use.

[0122] In this embodiment, by deeply mining and analyzing the spatiotemporal propagation information implicit in the trajectories, the potential transmission chains can be captured more comprehensively, significantly improving the accuracy and completeness of automatic inference. This not only improves the scientific nature of epidemic transmission path identification, but also provides more solid data support for public health decision-making, which helps to make faster and more effective prevention and control strategies in epidemic response.

[0123] The technical solution of the present invention significantly improves the efficiency and accuracy of epidemic transmission chain inference by efficiently utilizing spatiotemporal co-occurrence information. In particular, when responding to large-scale epidemic transmission, it can quickly and accurately identify key transmission nodes and paths, providing a solid scientific basis for formulating effective epidemic prevention and control measures.

[0124] Based on the first embodiment of the present application, in the second embodiment of the present application, the same or similar contents as those in the first embodiment can be referred to the above description, and will not be repeated in the following. On this basis, the specific implementation method of constructing the transmission chain based on the comprehensive transmission risk between the patients can be:

[0125] Based on the target infection probability, traverse each of the patients to determine the first patient with the highest probability of causing infection to each of the patients; based on the first patient, construct a transmission chain.

[0126] It can be understood that, in the case where there is no self-reported contact relationship between two patients, the target infection probability between the patients can be expressed as W ij =r1×L uk , where L uk is the comprehensive transmission risk between the two patients, i is the potential infector, j is the infected person, and in the case of a self-reported contact relationship between the two patients, the target transmission probability between the two patients can be expressed as W ij =r1×P×L k .

[0127] Furthermore, in order to construct a reasonable transmission chain, this embodiment adopts an algorithm based on a greedy strategy to gradually determine the most likely source of infection for each patient, that is, based on the target infection probability, traverse each of the patients, determine the first patient with the highest probability of causing infection to each of the patients, and construct a transmission chain based on the first patient; specifically, for each infected person Ij, select Ii with the largest second transmission risk Wij as the most likely source of infection, and record the infection relationship. If there are multiple sources of infection with the same second transmission risk, patients with a larger second transmission risk Lk are preferentially selected as the source of infection.

[0128] For example, for patient A, the first patient with the highest probability of infecting him is patient D. It can be understood that if patient D has the highest probability of infecting patient A, then patient D is considered to be the most likely source of infection for patient A; by analogy, for patient B, the first patient with the highest probability of infecting him is patient C, and for patient C, the first patient with the highest probability of infecting him is patient A; then based on the first patient, the transmission chain constructed is patient D-patient A-patient C-patient B.

[0129] In order to more accurately construct the transmission chain, the specific implementation method of constructing the transmission chain based on the first patient may also be:

[0130] If there are patients who infect each other among the first patients, the patient with the highest probability of causing infection among the mutually infected patients is determined as the infector based on the target infection probability; the second patient with the highest probability of causing infection to the infected person is determined based on the target infection probability, wherein the infected person is a patient who has mutual infection with the infector; a transmission chain is constructed based on the first patient, the infector and the second patient.

[0131] It should be noted that in the process of constructing the transmission chain, due to the incubation period of the virus, the patient with an earlier diagnosis time may have a later infection time, and patients may infect each other, that is, Ii infects Ij, and Ij also infects Ii; to avoid this unreasonable situation, this embodiment corrects the infection relationship.

[0132] Specifically, if there are patients who infect each other among the first patients, based on the target infection probability, the patient with the highest probability of causing infection among the mutually infected patients is determined as the infector, and the infection path corresponding to the non-infector among the mutually infected patients is removed.

[0133] In order to ensure the rationality and continuity of the transmission chain, it is necessary to re-analyze the corresponding transmission path of the removed non-infectious person to determine the source of infection of the non-infectious person. Specifically, based on the target infection probability, determine the second patient with the highest probability of infecting the infected person, wherein the infected person is a patient with mutual infection with the infectious person.

[0134] Finally, based on the first patient, the infected person and the second patient, a complete transmission chain can be constructed.

[0135] It can be understood that this embodiment quantifies the transmission risk between patients through the diagnosis time in the epidemiological survey information, the contact relationship reported by the individual, etc., and finally determines the most likely transmission path by using the greedy algorithm and comprehensive weights; the above method can more accurately identify the infection relationship, thereby establishing a reliable epidemic transmission chain; at the same time, it avoids unreasonable mutual infection, and can systematically infer the epidemic transmission chain, providing a scientific basis and decision-making support for epidemic prevention and control.

[0136] It should be noted that the above examples are only used to understand the present application and do not constitute a limitation on the method for constructing the communication chain of the present application. More simple transformations based on this technical concept are all within the scope of protection of the present application.

[0137] This application also provides a transmission chain construction device, please refer to Figure 4 , the communication chain construction device includes:

[0138] A judgment module 10 is used to judge whether there is a self-reported contact relationship between the patients based on the self-reported information of multiple patients in the acquired epidemiological survey information;

[0139] A first calculation module 20 is used to determine a first transmission risk between two patients with a self-reported contact relationship based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs if there is a self-reported contact relationship;

[0140] A second calculation module 30 is configured to determine, if there is no self-reported contact relationship, a second transmission risk between two patients without a self-reported contact relationship based on the historical trajectory information of the multiple patients;

[0141] A third calculation module 40 is used to determine the comprehensive transmission risk between the patients based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the disease course time point of each patient in the epidemiological survey information;

[0142] The construction module 50 is used to construct a transmission chain based on the comprehensive transmission risk between each of the patients.

[0143] The propagation chain construction device provided by the present application adopts the propagation chain construction method in the above-mentioned embodiment, which can solve the technical problem of low accuracy in propagation chain construction. Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the propagation chain construction device provided by the present application are the same as the beneficial effects of the propagation chain construction method provided by the above-mentioned embodiment, and the other technical features in the propagation chain construction device are the same as the features disclosed in the above-mentioned embodiment method, which will not be repeated here.

[0144] The present application provides a propagation chain construction device, which includes: at least one processor; and a memory communicatively connected to the at least one processor; wherein the memory stores instructions that can be executed by the at least one processor, and the instructions are executed by the at least one processor so that the at least one processor can execute the propagation chain construction method in the above-mentioned embodiment one.

[0145] Reference below Figure 5 , which shows a schematic diagram of the structure of a communication chain construction device suitable for implementing the embodiment of the present application. The communication chain construction device in the embodiment of the present application may include but is not limited to mobile terminals such as mobile phones, tablet computers, laptop computers, digital broadcast receivers, PDAs (Personal Digital Assistants), PMPs (Portable Media Players), vehicle terminals (such as vehicle navigation terminals), etc., and fixed terminals such as digital TVs, desktop computers, etc. Figure 5 The propagation chain construction device shown is merely an example and should not bring any limitation to the functions and scope of use of the embodiments of the present application.

[0146] like Figure 5As shown, the communication chain construction device may include a processing device 1001 (such as a central processing unit, a graphics processor, etc.), which can perform various appropriate actions and processes according to a program stored in a read-only memory (ROM: Read Only Memory) 1002 or a program loaded from a storage device 1003 to a random access memory (RAM: Random Access Memory) 1004. In RAM1004, various programs and data required for the operation of the communication chain construction device are also stored. The processing device 1001, ROM1002 and RAM1004 are connected to each other through a bus 1005. An input / output (I / O) interface 1006 is also connected to the bus. Generally, the following systems can be connected to the I / O interface 1006: an input device 1007 including, for example, a touch screen, a touch pad, a keyboard, a mouse, an image sensor, a microphone, an accelerometer, a gyroscope, etc.; an output device 1008 including, for example, a liquid crystal display (LCD: Liquid Crystal Display), a speaker, a vibrator, etc.; a storage device 1003 including, for example, a magnetic tape, a hard disk, etc.; and a communication device 1009. The communication device 1009 can allow the communication chain construction device to communicate wirelessly or wired with other devices to exchange data. Although the figure shows a communication chain construction device with various systems, it should be understood that it is not required to implement or have all the systems shown. More or fewer systems can be implemented or have alternatively.

[0147] In particular, according to the embodiments disclosed in the present application, the process described above with reference to the flowchart can be implemented as a computer software program. For example, the embodiments disclosed in the present application include a computer program product, which includes a computer program carried on a computer-readable medium, and the computer program includes a program code for executing the method shown in the flowchart. In such an embodiment, the computer program can be downloaded and installed from a network through a communication device, or installed from a storage device 1003, or installed from a ROM 1002. When the computer program is executed by the processing device 1001, the above-mentioned functions defined in the method of the embodiment disclosed in the present application are executed.

[0148] The communication chain construction device provided by the present application adopts the communication chain construction method in the above embodiment, which can solve the technical problem of low accuracy of communication chain construction. Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the communication chain construction device provided by the present application are the same as the beneficial effects of the communication chain construction method provided by the above embodiment, and the other technical features in the communication chain construction device are the same as the features disclosed in the method of the previous embodiment, which will not be repeated here.

[0149] It should be understood that the various parts disclosed in this application can be implemented by hardware, software, firmware or a combination thereof. In the description of the above embodiments, specific features, structures, materials or characteristics can be combined in any one or more embodiments or examples in a suitable manner.

[0150] The above is only a specific implementation of the present application, but the protection scope of the present application is not limited thereto. Any person skilled in the art who is familiar with the present technical field can easily think of changes or substitutions within the technical scope disclosed in the present application, which should be included in the protection scope of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present application should be based on the protection scope of the claims.

[0151] The present application provides a computer-readable storage medium having computer-readable program instructions (ie, computer programs) stored thereon, and the computer-readable program instructions are used to execute the propagation chain construction method in the above-mentioned embodiment.

[0152] The computer-readable storage medium provided in the present application may be, for example, a USB flash drive, but is not limited to electrical, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor systems, systems or devices, or any combination of the above. More specific examples of computer-readable storage media may include, but are not limited to: an electrical connection with one or more wires, a portable computer disk, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), an optical fiber, a portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the above. In this embodiment, the computer-readable storage medium may be any tangible medium containing or storing a program that can be used by or in combination with an instruction execution system, system or device. The program code contained on the computer-readable storage medium may be transmitted using any appropriate medium, including but not limited to: wires, optical cables, RF (Radio Frequency), etc., or any suitable combination of the above.

[0153] The above-mentioned computer-readable storage medium may be included in the communication chain construction device; or it may exist independently without being assembled into the communication chain construction device.

[0154] The above-mentioned computer-readable storage medium carries one or more programs. When the above-mentioned one or more programs are executed by the propagation chain construction device, the propagation chain construction device: executes the above-mentioned propagation chain construction method.

[0155] Computer program code for performing the operations of the present application may be written in one or more programming languages ​​or a combination thereof, including object-oriented programming languages ​​such as Java, Smalltalk, C++, and conventional procedural programming languages ​​such as "C" or similar programming languages. The program code may be executed entirely on the user's computer, partially on the user's computer, as a separate software package, partially on the user's computer and partially on a remote computer, or entirely on a remote computer or server. In the case of a remote computer, the remote computer may be connected to the user's computer through any type of network, including a local area network (LAN) or a wide area network (WAN), or may be connected to an external computer (e.g., via the Internet using an Internet service provider).

[0156] The flow chart and block diagram in the accompanying drawings illustrate the possible architecture, function and operation of the system, method and computer program product according to each embodiment of the present application. In this regard, each square box in the flow chart or block diagram can represent a module, a program segment or a part of a code, and the module, the program segment or a part of the code contains one or more executable instructions for realizing the specified logical function. It should also be noted that in some implementations as replacements, the functions marked in the square box can also occur in a sequence different from that marked in the accompanying drawings. For example, two square boxes represented in succession can actually be executed substantially in parallel, and they can sometimes be executed in the opposite order, depending on the functions involved. It should also be noted that each square box in the block diagram and / or flow chart, and the combination of the square boxes in the block diagram and / or flow chart can be implemented with a dedicated hardware-based system that performs a specified function or operation, or can be implemented with a combination of dedicated hardware and computer instructions.

[0157] The modules involved in the embodiments described in this application may be implemented by software or hardware, wherein the name of the module does not constitute a limitation on the unit itself in some cases.

[0158] The readable storage medium provided by the present application is a computer-readable storage medium, which stores computer-readable program instructions (i.e., computer programs) for executing the above-mentioned propagation chain construction method, and can solve the technical problem of low accuracy in propagation chain construction. Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the computer-readable storage medium provided by the present application are the same as the beneficial effects of the propagation chain construction method provided by the above-mentioned embodiment, and will not be repeated here.

[0159] The present application also provides a computer program product, including a computer program, which implements the steps of the above-mentioned propagation chain construction method when executed by a processor.

[0160] The computer program product provided by this application can solve the technical problem of low accuracy in propagation chain construction. Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the computer program product provided by this application are the same as those of the propagation chain construction method provided by the above embodiment, which will not be repeated here.

[0161] The above descriptions are only some embodiments of the present application, and are not intended to limit the patent scope of the present application. All equivalent structural changes made using the contents of the present application specification and drawings under the technical concept of the present application, or direct / indirect applications in other related technical fields are included in the patent protection scope of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for constructing a propagation chain, characterized in that: The method includes: Based on the self-reported information of multiple patients in the epidemiological survey information obtained, determine whether there is a self-reported contact relationship between two patients; If there is a self-reported contact relationship, determining the first transmission risk between the two patients with the self-reported contact relationship based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs; If there is no self-reported contact relationship, determining a second transmission risk between two patients without a self-reported contact relationship based on the historical trajectory information of the multiple patients; Determine a comprehensive transmission risk between the patients based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the disease course time point of each of the patients in the epidemiological survey information; Based on the comprehensive transmission risk between each of the patients, a transmission chain is constructed.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The historical trajectory information includes the activity location and activity time of each of the patients, and the step of determining the second transmission risk between two patients without self-reported contact relationship based on the historical trajectory information of the multiple patients includes: Determining a first impact weight of the location on the second transmission risk based on the location type of the activity location; Based on the activity location and activity time, determine a second impact weight of distance on the second transmission risk, and a third impact weight of continuous contact time on the second transmission risk; A second transmission risk between the patients is determined based on the first influence weight, the second influence weight, and the third influence weight.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The step of determining a second impact weight of distance on the second transmission risk and a third impact weight of continuous contact time on the second transmission risk based on the activity location and activity time includes: Based on the activity location and activity time, determining the relative distance of each of the patients at the same time; If the relative distance is less than the preset maximum contact distance, determining a second influence weight of the distance on the second propagation risk by using a preset distance decay function, wherein the preset distance decay function is used to characterize the correlation between the distance and the contact probability; If the relative distance is less than the preset maximum contact distance, the continuous contact time between the patients is determined based on the activity time, and the third impact weight of the continuous contact time on the second transmission risk is determined through a preset calculation formula, wherein the preset calculation formula is used to characterize the correlation between the continuous contact time and the second transmission risk.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The step of determining the first transmission risk between two patients having a self-reported contact relationship based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs also includes: Determining, based on the contact type to which the contact relationship belongs, a fourth impact weight of the contact relationship on the first transmission risk; Based on the fourth impact weight and a preset weight parameter, a first transmission risk between the patients is determined, wherein the preset weight parameter is used to characterize the importance of the contact relationship relative to the second transmission risk.

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The disease course time point includes the diagnosis time, and the step of determining the comprehensive transmission risk between the patients based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the disease course time point of each patient in the epidemiological survey information includes: Based on the diagnosis time of each of the patients, the fifth impact weight of time on the transmission risk is determined by presetting the generation interval model; Based on the first transmission risk, the second transmission risk, and the fifth impact weight, a comprehensive transmission risk between the patients is determined.

6. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The comprehensive transmission risk is used to characterize the target infection probability between patients. The step of constructing a transmission chain based on the comprehensive transmission risk between each of the patients includes: Based on the target infection probability, traverse the patients to determine the first patient with the highest probability of causing infection to each of the patients; Based on the first patient, a transmission chain is constructed.

7. The method according to claim 6, characterized in that The step of constructing a transmission chain based on the first patient comprises: If there are patients who infect each other among the first patients, then based on the target infection probability, determine the patient with the highest probability of causing infection among the mutually infected patients as the infector; Based on the target infection probability, determining a second patient with the highest probability of causing infection to the infected person, wherein the infected person is a patient who is mutually infected with the infected person; A transmission chain is constructed based on the first patient, the infected person and the second patient.

8. A communication chain construction device, characterized in that: The device includes: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the computer program is configured to implement the steps of the propagation chain construction method as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

9. A storage medium, characterized in that: The storage medium is a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the propagation chain construction method as described in any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

10. A computer program product, characterized in that The computer program product comprises a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the propagation chain construction method as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

Images