An intelligent monitoring method and system for thunderstorm propagation path in high-altitude area

Abstract

The application discloses a high-altitude area thunderstorm propagation path intelligent monitoring method and system, and the method comprises the following steps: when a high-altitude area is in thunderstorm weather, performing area thunderstorm characteristic analysis according to the interval length between the thunderstorm weather generation time and the thunderstorm appearance time of the thunderstorm area in a thunderstorm weather period, the growth span of the thunderstorm quantity and the maximum continuous time length of the thunderstorm peak value quantity, judging the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm area; performing propagation path analysis according to the thunderstorm appearance frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation area in the thunderstorm weather period and the position movement deviation value of the thunderstorm generation area, determining the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation in the thunderstorm weather period, and then taking corresponding protection measures on the thunderstorm area. The application solves the technical problem that the prior art cannot analyze the thunderstorm weather influence degree and the thunderstorm path propagation influence degree, so that the thunderstorm path early warning efficiency is reduced, and accurate monitoring cannot be performed.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The application relates to a thunderstorm analysis technical field, in particular to a high-altitude area thunderstorm propagation path intelligent monitoring method and system. BACKGROUND

[0002] The thunderstorm is local convective weather with lightning and thunder, which is produced in strong cumulonimbus, thus often accompanied by strong rainstorm or heavy rain, sometimes accompanied by hail and tornado, and belongs to strong convective weather system. The thunderstorm occurs when the atmosphere is unstable, and can produce a large amount of rain or ice crystals.

[0003] However, in the prior art, the influence degree of thunderstorm weather and the influence degree of thunderstorm path propagation cannot be analyzed when the thunderstorm propagation path is monitored, so that the thunderstorm path early warning efficiency is reduced, and accurate monitoring cannot be performed. SUMMARY

[0004] The application provides a high-altitude area thunderstorm propagation path intelligent monitoring method and system, which is used to solve the technical problem that the influence degree of thunderstorm weather and the influence degree of thunderstorm path propagation cannot be analyzed in the prior art, so that the thunderstorm path early warning efficiency is reduced, and accurate monitoring cannot be performed.

[0005] Therefore, the application provides a high-altitude area thunderstorm propagation path intelligent monitoring method in the first aspect, which comprises:

[0006] When the high-altitude area is in thunderstorm weather, the interval time length between the thunderstorm weather generation time and the thunderstorm appearance time of the thunderstorm area in the thunderstorm weather period, the growth span of the thunderstorm quantity and the maximum duration of the thunderstorm peak value quantity are analyzed to obtain the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm area;

[0007] By comparing the size of the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm area and the thunderstorm characteristic threshold value, the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm area is determined;

[0008] The propagation path analysis is performed according to the thunderstorm appearance frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation area in the thunderstorm weather period and the position movement deviation value of the thunderstorm generation area, so as to determine the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation in the thunderstorm weather period;

[0009] According to the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm area and the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation in the thunderstorm weather period, the corresponding protection measures are taken for the thunderstorm area.

[0010] Optionally, the interval between the thunderstorm weather generation time and the thunderstorm appearance time of the thunderstorm region in the thunderstorm weather period, the growth span of the thunderstorm number, and the maximum duration of the peak number of thunderstorms are analyzed to obtain a thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region, including:

[0011] The interval between the thunderstorm weather generation time and the thunderstorm appearance time of the thunderstorm region in the thunderstorm weather period, the growth span of the thunderstorm number, and the maximum duration of the peak number of thunderstorms are input into a thunderstorm characteristic analysis model to obtain a thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region; the thunderstorm characteristic analysis model is:

[0012]

[0013] In the formula, F is the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region; JCS is the interval between the thunderstorm weather generation time and the thunderstorm appearance time of the thunderstorm region in the thunderstorm weather period; ZZK is the growth span of the thunderstorm number of the thunderstorm region in the thunderstorm weather period; ZXS is the maximum duration of the peak number of thunderstorms in the thunderstorm region; s1, s2, and s3 are all preset proportion coefficients, and s1>s2>s3>0; and β is an error correction factor.

[0014] Optionally, the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm region is determined by comparing the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region with a thunderstorm characteristic threshold, including:

[0015] The thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region is compared with the thunderstorm characteristic threshold;

[0016] If the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region is greater than the thunderstorm characteristic threshold, it is determined that the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm region is high.

[0017] If the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region is less than or equal to the thunderstorm characteristic threshold, it is determined that the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm region is low.

[0018] Optionally, the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation is determined by analyzing the thunderstorm appearance frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation region in the thunderstorm weather period and the position movement deviation value of the thunderstorm generation region, including:

[0019] The thunderstorm appearance frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation region in the thunderstorm weather period and the position movement deviation value of the thunderstorm generation region are compared with a frequency threshold and a position movement deviation threshold, respectively.

[0020] If the frequency of thunderstorms occurring on the same path in the thunderstorm generation area during the thunderstorm weather period is greater than the frequency threshold, and the position movement deviation value of the thunderstorm generation area during the thunderstorm weather period is less than or equal to the position movement deviation threshold, it is determined that the current thunderstorm path propagation influence degree during the thunderstorm weather period is low.

[0021] If the frequency of thunderstorms occurring on the same path in the thunderstorm generation area during the thunderstorm weather period is less than or equal to the frequency threshold, or the position movement deviation value of the thunderstorm generation area during the thunderstorm weather period is greater than the position movement deviation threshold, it is determined that the current thunderstorm path propagation influence degree during the thunderstorm weather period is high.

[0022] Optionally, the method further comprises:

[0023] Obtaining a position deviation value of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path at the same time in the thunderstorm area, an inconsistent frequency of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path in the same period, and an area deviation value of the area where the real-time propagation path is located and the area where the predicted propagation path is located in the thunderstorm area;

[0024] Inputting the position deviation value of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path at the same time in the thunderstorm area, the inconsistent frequency of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path in the same period, and the area deviation value of the area where the real-time propagation path is located and the area where the predicted propagation path is located in the thunderstorm area into the propagation path early warning model for propagation path early warning, and obtaining a propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm area;

[0025] Comparing the propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm area with a propagation path early warning coefficient threshold;

[0026] If the propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm area is greater than the propagation path early warning coefficient threshold, it is determined that the propagation path prediction efficiency in the thunderstorm area is low, and the thunderstorm area is re-analyzed for characteristics.

[0027] Optionally, the propagation path early warning model is:

[0028]

[0029] In the formula, D is the propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm area; WP is the position deviation value of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path at the same time in the thunderstorm area; PL is the inconsistent frequency of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path in the same period; MP is the area deviation value of the area where the real-time propagation path is located and the area where the predicted propagation path is located in the thunderstorm area; gf1, gf2 and gf3 are all preset proportional coefficients, and gf1> gf2> gf3> 1; and a is an error correction coefficient.

[0030] The second aspect of the present application provides a high-altitude area thunderstorm propagation path intelligent monitoring system, comprising:

[0031] a server configured to generate a regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis signal and send the signal to a regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis module when a high sea wave region is detected to be in thunderstorm weather;

[0032] The regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis module is configured to perform regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis on the interval between the thunderstorm weather generation time and the thunderstorm occurrence time, the growth span of the number of thunderstorms, and the maximum duration of the peak number of thunderstorms in the thunderstorm region during the thunderstorm weather period, and generate a thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region after receiving the regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis signal; compare the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region with a thunderstorm characteristic threshold value to determine the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm region, and generate a thunderstorm weather influence degree signal and send the signal to the server.

[0033] The server is further configured to generate a propagation path analysis signal and send the signal to a path propagation analysis module.

[0034] The path propagation analysis module is configured to perform propagation path analysis on the thunderstorm occurrence frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation region and the position movement deviation value of the thunderstorm generation region during the thunderstorm weather period, determine the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation during the thunderstorm weather period, and generate a thunderstorm path propagation influence degree signal and send the signal to the server.

[0035] The server is further configured to take corresponding protective measures for the thunderstorm region according to the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm region and the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation during the thunderstorm weather period.

[0036] Optionally, the regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis module is specifically configured to:

[0037] input the interval between the thunderstorm weather generation time and the thunderstorm occurrence time, the growth span of the number of thunderstorms, and the maximum duration of the peak number of thunderstorms in the thunderstorm region during the thunderstorm weather period into a regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis model to perform regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis, and obtain a thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region; the regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis model is:

[0038]

[0039] In the formula, F is the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region; JCS is the interval between the thunderstorm weather generation time and the thunderstorm occurrence time in the thunderstorm region during the thunderstorm weather period; ZZK is the growth span of the number of thunderstorms in the thunderstorm region during the thunderstorm weather period; ZXS is the maximum duration of the peak number of thunderstorms in the thunderstorm region; s1, s2, and s3 are all preset proportion coefficients, and s1>s2>s3>0; β is an error correction factor.

[0040] comparing the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region with a thunderstorm characteristic threshold value;

[0041] if the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region is greater than the thunderstorm characteristic threshold value, it is determined that the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm region has a high influence degree;

[0042] if the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region is less than or equal to the thunderstorm characteristic threshold value, it is determined that the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm region has a low influence degree.

[0043] Optionally, the path propagation analysis module is specifically configured to:

[0044] compare the thunderstorm occurrence frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation region in the thunderstorm weather period, and the position movement deviation value of the thunderstorm generation region with a frequency threshold value and a position movement deviation threshold value, respectively;

[0045] if the thunderstorm occurrence frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation region in the thunderstorm weather period is greater than the frequency threshold value, and the position movement deviation value of the thunderstorm generation region in the thunderstorm weather period is less than or equal to the position movement deviation threshold value, it is determined that the current thunderstorm path propagation in the thunderstorm weather period has a low influence degree;

[0046] if the thunderstorm occurrence frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation region in the thunderstorm weather period is less than or equal to the frequency threshold value, or the position movement deviation value of the thunderstorm generation region in the thunderstorm weather period is greater than the position movement deviation threshold value, it is determined that the current thunderstorm path propagation in the thunderstorm weather period has a high influence degree.

[0047] Optionally, the system further comprises a propagation path early warning module configured to:

[0048] obtain a position deviation value of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path in the thunderstorm region at the same time, an inconsistent frequency of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path in the same period, and an area deviation value of the area where the real-time propagation path is located and the area where the predicted propagation path is located in the thunderstorm region;

[0049] input the position deviation value of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path in the thunderstorm region at the same time, the inconsistent frequency of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path in the same period, and the area deviation value of the area where the real-time propagation path is located and the area where the predicted propagation path is located in the thunderstorm region into a propagation path early warning model to perform propagation path early warning, and obtain a propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm region;

[0050] compare the propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm region with a propagation path early warning coefficient threshold value;

[0051] If the propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm area is greater than the propagation path early warning coefficient threshold, it is determined that the thunderstorm area has low propagation path prediction efficiency, and the characteristics of the thunderstorm area are re-analyzed.

[0052] From the above technical solutions, the present application has the following advantages:

[0053] The high-altitude area thunderstorm propagation path intelligent monitoring method provided by the present application can analyze the characteristics of the thunderstorm area, determine whether the influence of the current thunderstorm weather is controllable, avoid the influence of the thunderstorm weather being too large to affect the passage in the thunderstorm area, and the problem that the thunderstorm weather cannot be timely warned to maximize the influence of the thunderstorm weather; the thunderstorm path propagation in the thunderstorm area can be analyzed to determine whether the influence of the current thunderstorm area is controllable, the predictability of the thunderstorm propagation is analyzed, the influence of the current thunderstorm area is accurately predicted, and the rationality and accuracy of the thunderstorm warning in the thunderstorm area are improved, so that the safety protection of the thunderstorm weather can be timely performed. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0054] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application or the prior art, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments or the prior art description will be briefly introduced. Obviously, the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present application, and those skilled in the art can obtain other drawings according to these drawings without creative labor.

[0055] Figure 1 A flowchart of a high-altitude area thunderstorm propagation path intelligent monitoring method provided by an embodiment of the present application is shown in the figure.

[0056] Figure 2 A structural diagram of a high-altitude area thunderstorm propagation path intelligent monitoring system provided by an embodiment of the present application is shown in the figure. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0057] In order to make those skilled in the art better understand the present application, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be described clearly and completely with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present application. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present application, not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative labor are within the scope of protection of the present application.

[0058] For easy understanding, please refer to Figure 1 The first aspect of the present application provides a high-altitude area thunderstorm propagation path intelligent monitoring method, comprising:

[0059] Step 110, when detecting that the high sea wave region is in thunderstorm weather, performing region thunderstorm characteristic analysis according to the interval length of the thunderstorm weather generation time and the thunderstorm appearance time in the thunderstorm weather period, the growth span of the thunderstorm number, and the maximum duration of the peak thunderstorm number of the thunderstorm region, to obtain a thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region.

[0060] When detecting that the high sea wave region is in thunderstorm weather, real-time propagation path monitoring is performed on the thunderstorm region, so as to perform real-time monitoring and early warning on the propagation path, and prevent the propagation path in the thunderstorm region from affecting the operation of the equipment or the passing of the vehicle in the region. Specifically, the region where the thunderstorm weather appears is marked as a thunderstorm region, the interval length JGS of the thunderstorm weather generation time and the thunderstorm appearance time in the thunderstorm region, the growth span ZZK of the thunderstorm number in the thunderstorm weather generation period in the thunderstorm region, and the maximum duration ZXS of the peak thunderstorm number in the thunderstorm region are obtained, the maximum duration of the peak thunderstorm number is the maximum duration corresponding to the appearance of the peak thunderstorm number, for example, ten times of thunderstorm at the peak at time A, and ten times of thunderstorm at the peak at time B, then the duration from time A to time B is the duration of the peak thunderstorm number; the interval length of the thunderstorm weather generation time and the thunderstorm appearance time in the thunderstorm weather period in the thunderstorm region, the growth span of the thunderstorm number, and the maximum duration of the peak thunderstorm number are input into a region thunderstorm characteristic analysis model to perform region thunderstorm characteristic analysis, to obtain a thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region; the region thunderstorm characteristic analysis model is:

[0061]

[0062] In the formula, F is the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region; s1, s2, and s3 are all preset proportion coefficients, and s1>s2>s3>0; β is an error correction factor.

[0063] Step 120, by comparing the size of the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region and the thunderstorm characteristic threshold value, the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm region is judged.

[0064] The size of the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region and the thunderstorm characteristic threshold value is compared; if the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region is greater than the thunderstorm characteristic threshold value, it is determined that the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm region is high, and the current thunderstorm region can be marked as a thunderstorm high impact region; if the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region is less than or equal to the thunderstorm characteristic threshold value, it is determined that the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm region is low, and the current thunderstorm region can be marked as a thunderstorm low impact region.

[0065] By analyzing the regional thunderstorm characteristics of the thunderstorm area, it is judged whether the influence degree of the thunderstorm weather in the current thunderstorm area is controllable, so as to avoid that the influence degree of the thunderstorm weather is too large to cause the traffic in the thunderstorm area to be affected and the thunderstorm weather to be maximized due to the failure of timely warning.

[0066] In step 130, the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation in the thunderstorm weather period is determined by analyzing the thunderstorm appearance frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation area in the thunderstorm weather period and the position moving deviation value of the thunderstorm generation area.

[0067] The influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation in the thunderstorm weather period is determined by analyzing the thunderstorm appearance frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation area in the thunderstorm weather period and the position moving deviation value of the thunderstorm generation area, the predictability of the thunderstorm propagation is analyzed, the influence of the thunderstorm weather in the current thunderstorm area is accurately predicted, and the rationality and accuracy of the thunderstorm warning in the thunderstorm area are improved, so that the safety protection of the thunderstorm weather can be timely performed.

[0068] Specifically, the thunderstorm appearance frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation area in the thunderstorm weather period and the position moving deviation value of the thunderstorm generation area are compared with the frequency threshold and the position moving deviation threshold respectively; if the thunderstorm appearance frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation area in the thunderstorm weather period is greater than the frequency threshold, and the position moving deviation value of the thunderstorm generation area in the thunderstorm weather period is less than or equal to the position moving deviation threshold, it is determined that the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation in the thunderstorm weather period is low; if the thunderstorm appearance frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation area in the thunderstorm weather period is less than or equal to the frequency threshold, or the position moving deviation value of the thunderstorm generation area in the thunderstorm weather period is greater than the position moving deviation threshold, it is determined that the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation in the thunderstorm weather period is high.

[0069] In step 140, corresponding protection measures are taken for the thunderstorm area according to the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm area and the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation in the thunderstorm weather period.

[0070] If the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm area is high and / or the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation in the thunderstorm weather period is high, the current thunderstorm area needs to be warned and the traffic in the current thunderstorm area needs to be controlled; if the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm area is low and the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation in the thunderstorm weather period is low, the current thunderstorm area can be warned.

[0071] Further, the propagation path warning of the thunderstorm area can be performed, the efficiency evaluation of the real-time thunderstorm prediction and control can be performed, the low protection efficiency of the thunderstorm area caused by the large path prediction deviation in the thunderstorm area can be avoided, and the travel of the thunderstorm weather in the area can be affected.

[0072] obtaining a position deviation value WP of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path at the same time in the thunderstorm area and a non-consistent frequency PL of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path in the same period, and obtaining an area deviation value MP of the area where the real-time propagation path is located and the area where the predicted propagation path is located in the thunderstorm area; inputting the position deviation value WP of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path at the same time in the thunderstorm area, the non-consistent frequency PL of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path in the same period, and the area deviation value MP of the area where the real-time propagation path is located and the area where the predicted propagation path is located in the thunderstorm area into a propagation path early warning model to perform propagation path early warning, and obtaining a propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm area; wherein the propagation path early warning model is:

[0073]

[0074] In the formula, D is the propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm area; gf1, gf2, and gf3 are all preset proportional coefficients, and gf1> gf2> gf3> 1; α is an error correction coefficient, which takes a value of 0.8 when the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm area is high and the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation in the thunderstorm weather period is high, takes a value of 0.9 when the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm area is high or the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation in the thunderstorm weather period is high, takes a value of 1.2 when the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm area is low and the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation in the thunderstorm weather period is low, and takes a value of 1.1 when the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm area is low or the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation in the thunderstorm weather period is low.

[0075] comparing the obtained propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm area with a propagation path early warning coefficient threshold value, if the propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm area is greater than the propagation path early warning coefficient threshold value, it is determined that the propagation path prediction efficiency in the thunderstorm area is low, and it is necessary to re-analyze the characteristics of the thunderstorm area and control the traffic in the thunderstorm area; if the obtained propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm area is less than or equal to the propagation path early warning coefficient threshold value, it is determined that the propagation path prediction efficiency in the thunderstorm area is high. The present application analyzes the propagation path early warning of the thunderstorm area after the characteristic analysis, infers that the path prediction efficiency is low through coefficient comparison, that is, there is a deviation between the real-time path and the predicted path, and it is necessary to re-analyze the characteristics of the thunderstorm area, that is, to analyze whether the thunderstorm area is a high-impact area or a low-impact area, and to re-divide the area impact degree, because the real-time path and the predicted path deviate too much and cannot be controlled; on the contrary, if the prediction efficiency is high, the previous characteristic analysis of the area is reasonable and controllable.

[0076] The high-altitude area thunderstorm propagation path intelligent monitoring method provided by the application can analyze the characteristics of the thunderstorm area, determine whether the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the area is controllable, avoid the influence degree of the thunderstorm weather being too large to cause the traffic in the thunderstorm area to be affected, and the problem that the thunderstorm weather influence maximization cannot be timely warned; the thunderstorm path propagation in the thunderstorm area can be analyzed to determine whether the influence degree of the thunderstorm propagation in the current thunderstorm area is controllable, the predictability of the thunderstorm propagation is analyzed, the influence of the thunderstorm weather in the current thunderstorm area is accurately predicted, and the rationality and accuracy of the thunderstorm warning in the thunderstorm area are improved, so that the safety protection of the thunderstorm weather can be timely performed; the propagation path warning of the thunderstorm area is performed, the efficiency evaluation of the real-time thunderstorm prediction and control is performed, the large path prediction deviation in the thunderstorm area is avoided to cause the low protection efficiency of the thunderstorm area, and the travel in the area affected by the thunderstorm weather is affected.

[0077] Please refer to Figure 2 The second aspect of the application provides a high-altitude area thunderstorm propagation path intelligent monitoring system, comprising: a server, the server is in communication connection with a path propagation analysis module, a propagation path warning module and a regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis module, wherein the server is bidirectionally connected with the path propagation analysis module, the propagation path warning module and the regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis module.

[0078] The server is used for generating a regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis signal and sending it to the regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis module when a high-altitude area is in thunderstorm weather is detected;

[0079] The regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis module is used for performing regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis on the interval duration between the thunderstorm weather generation time and the thunderstorm occurrence time, the growth span of the thunderstorm number and the maximum duration of the thunderstorm peak number in the thunderstorm area during the thunderstorm weather period after receiving the regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis signal, generating a thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm area; by comparing the size of the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm area and the thunderstorm characteristic threshold value, the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm area is determined, and a thunderstorm weather influence degree signal is generated and sent to the server;

[0080] The server is also used for generating a propagation path analysis signal and sending it to the path propagation analysis module;

[0081] The path propagation analysis module is used for obtaining the thunderstorm occurrence frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation area and the position movement deviation value of the thunderstorm generation area during the thunderstorm weather period to perform propagation path analysis, determine the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation during the thunderstorm weather period, and generate a thunderstorm path propagation influence degree signal and send it to the server;

[0082] The server is further configured to take corresponding protective measures on the thunderstorm area according to an influence degree of current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm area and an influence degree of current thunderstorm path propagation in a thunderstorm weather period.

[0083] When the high sea wave area is in thunderstorm weather, the system performs real-time propagation path monitoring on the thunderstorm area, so as to facilitate real-time monitoring and early warning of the propagation path, and prevent the propagation path in the thunderstorm area from affecting the operation of equipment or the risk of vehicle passing. When the server detects that the high sea wave area is in thunderstorm weather, the server generates a region thunderstorm characteristic analysis signal and sends the signal to a region thunderstorm characteristic analysis module. After receiving the region thunderstorm characteristic analysis signal, the region thunderstorm characteristic analysis module performs region thunderstorm characteristic analysis on the thunderstorm area, and determines whether the influence degree of current thunderstorm weather in the region is controllable, so as to avoid the influence degree of thunderstorm weather being too large to cause the passing in the thunderstorm area to be affected, and the thunderstorm weather influence being maximized due to the failure to timely perform early warning.

[0084] The region thunderstorm characteristic analysis module marks the area where the thunderstorm weather occurs as a thunderstorm area, obtains an interval time length JGS between a thunderstorm weather generation time and a thunderstorm occurrence time in the thunderstorm area, a growth span ZZK of a thunderstorm number in a thunderstorm weather generation period in the thunderstorm area, and a maximum continuous time length ZXS of a thunderstorm peak number in the thunderstorm area, inputs the interval time length, the growth span of the thunderstorm number, and the maximum continuous time length of the thunderstorm peak number into a region thunderstorm characteristic analysis model to perform region thunderstorm characteristic analysis, and obtains a thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm area. The region thunderstorm characteristic analysis model is as follows.

[0085]

[0086] In the formula, F is the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm area; s1, s2, and s3 are preset proportion coefficients, and s1>s2>s3>0; and β is an error correction factor.

[0087] The region thunderstorm characteristic analysis module compares the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm area with a thunderstorm characteristic threshold value. If the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm area is greater than the thunderstorm characteristic threshold value, it is determined that the influence degree of current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm area is high, the current thunderstorm area is marked as a thunderstorm high-influence area, a high-influence signal is generated, and the high-influence signal and a number of the corresponding thunderstorm high-influence area are sent to the server. If the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm area is less than or equal to the thunderstorm characteristic threshold value, it is determined that the influence degree of current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm area is low, the current thunderstorm area is marked as a thunderstorm low-influence area, a low-influence signal is generated, and the low-influence signal and a number of the corresponding thunderstorm low-influence area are sent to the server.

[0088] After the server receives the high-impact signal and the number corresponding to the high-impact area of the thunderstorm, or the low-impact signal and the number corresponding to the low-impact area of the thunderstorm, the server generates a path propagation analysis signal and sends the path propagation analysis signal to a path propagation analysis module. After the path propagation analysis module receives the path propagation analysis signal, the path propagation analysis module analyzes the thunderstorm path propagation in the thunderstorm area, determines whether the thunderstorm propagation impact degree in the current thunderstorm area is controllable, and analyzes the predictability of the thunderstorm propagation, so as to accurately predict the impact of the thunderstorm weather in the current thunderstorm area, and improve the rationality and accuracy of the thunderstorm warning in the thunderstorm area, so as to timely protect the safety of the thunderstorm weather.

[0089] The path propagation analysis module compares the thunderstorm occurrence frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation area in the thunderstorm weather period and the position movement deviation value of the thunderstorm generation area with the frequency threshold value and the position movement deviation threshold value respectively; if the thunderstorm occurrence frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation area in the thunderstorm weather period is greater than the frequency threshold value, and the position movement deviation value of the thunderstorm generation area in the thunderstorm weather period is less than or equal to the position movement deviation threshold value, it is determined that the current thunderstorm path propagation impact degree in the thunderstorm weather period is low, an easy-to-control propagation signal is generated and sent to the server; if the thunderstorm occurrence frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation area in the thunderstorm weather period is less than or equal to the frequency threshold value, or the position movement deviation value of the thunderstorm generation area in the thunderstorm weather period is greater than the position movement deviation threshold value, it is determined that the current thunderstorm path propagation impact degree in the thunderstorm weather period is high, a difficult-to-control propagation signal is generated and sent to the server.

[0090] If the server receives the high impact degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm area and / or the high impact degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation in the thunderstorm weather period, the server issues a warning to the current thunderstorm area and controls the passage in the current thunderstorm area; if the server receives the low impact degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm area and the low impact degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation in the thunderstorm weather period, the server can issue a warning to the current thunderstorm area.

[0091] Further, the server is also used to generate a propagation path warning signal and send the propagation path warning signal to a propagation path warning module. After the propagation path warning module receives the propagation path warning signal, the propagation path warning module performs a propagation path warning on the thunderstorm area, and evaluates the efficiency of real-time thunderstorm prediction and control, so as to avoid the low protection efficiency of the thunderstorm area caused by the large path prediction deviation in the thunderstorm area, and affect the travel in the thunderstorm area.

[0092] The propagation path early warning module obtains a position deviation value WP of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path at the same time in the thunderstorm area and a non-consistent frequency PL of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path in the same period; and obtains an area deviation value MP of the area where the real-time propagation path is located and the area where the predicted propagation path is located in the thunderstorm area; inputs the position deviation value WP of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path at the same time in the thunderstorm area, the non-consistent frequency PL of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path in the same period, and the area deviation value MP of the area where the real-time propagation path is located and the area where the predicted propagation path is located in the thunderstorm area into a propagation path early warning model to perform propagation path early warning, and obtains a propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm area; wherein the propagation path early warning model is:

[0093]

[0094] In the formula, D is the propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm area; gf1, gf2, and gf3 are all preset proportional coefficients, and gf1> gf2> gf3> 1; α is an error correction coefficient, when the server receives a high-impact signal and a difficult-to-control propagation signal, α takes a value of 0.8; when the server receives a high-impact signal or a difficult-to-control propagation signal, α takes a value of 0.9; when the server receives a low-impact signal and an easy-to-control propagation signal, α takes a value of 1.2; and when the server receives a low-impact signal or an easy-to-control propagation signal, α takes a value of 1.1.

[0095] The propagation path early warning module compares the obtained propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm area with a propagation path early warning coefficient threshold value, if the propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm area is greater than the propagation path early warning coefficient threshold value, it is determined that the propagation path prediction efficiency in the thunderstorm area is low, a propagation path early warning signal is generated and sent to the server, after the server receives the propagation path early warning signal, the server reanalyzes the characteristics of the thunderstorm area and controls the passage in the thunderstorm area; if the obtained propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm area is less than or equal to the propagation path early warning coefficient threshold value, it is determined that the propagation path prediction efficiency in the thunderstorm area is high, a propagation path continuous monitoring signal is generated and sent to the server.

[0096] The high-altitude area thunderstorm propagation path intelligent monitoring system provided by the application can analyze the characteristics of the thunderstorm area, determine whether the influence degree of the thunderstorm weather in the current area is controllable, avoid the influence degree of the thunderstorm weather being too large to cause the traffic in the thunderstorm area to be affected, and cause the thunderstorm weather to be maximized without timely warning; the thunderstorm propagation path in the thunderstorm area can be analyzed to determine whether the influence degree of the thunderstorm propagation in the current thunderstorm area is controllable, the predictability of the thunderstorm propagation is analyzed, the influence of the thunderstorm weather in the current thunderstorm area is accurately predicted, the rationality and accuracy of the thunderstorm warning in the thunderstorm area are improved, and the thunderstorm weather can be safely protected in time; the propagation path warning is performed on the thunderstorm area, the efficiency of the real-time thunderstorm prediction and control is evaluated, the prediction deviation of the path in the thunderstorm area is large, the protection efficiency of the thunderstorm area is low, and the travel of the thunderstorm weather in the area is affected.

[0097] The third aspect of the application provides an electronic device, the device comprising a processor and a memory;

[0098] The memory is used to store program code and transmit the program code to the processor;

[0099] The processor is used to execute the high-altitude area thunderstorm propagation path intelligent monitoring method in the foregoing method embodiments according to the instructions in the program code.

[0100] The fourth aspect of the application provides a computer-readable storage medium, the computer-readable storage medium is used to store program code, and the program code is executed by the processor to implement the high-altitude area thunderstorm propagation path intelligent monitoring method in the foregoing method embodiments.

[0101] The terms "first", "second", "third", "fourth" and the like (if any) in the specification and the above drawings of the application are used to distinguish similar objects, and do not necessarily indicate a specific order or sequence. In addition, the terms "include" and "have" and any variations thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, for example, a process, method, system, product or device including a series of steps or units does not necessarily have to be limited to those steps or units clearly listed, but can include other steps or units not clearly listed or inherent to the process, method, product or device.

[0102] It should be understood that, in the application, "at least one" means one or more, and "multiple" means two or more. "And / or" is used to describe the association relationship of the associated objects, which means that there can be three relationships, for example, "A and / or B" can mean: only A exists, only B exists, and A and B exist at the same time, wherein A and B can be singular or plural. The character " / " generally represents an "or" relationship between the associated objects before and after it. "At least one of the following" or the like means any combination of these items, including single item or any combination of multiple items. For example, at least one of a, b or c can mean: a, b, c, "a and b", "a and c", "b and c", or "a and b and c", wherein a, b, and c can be single or multiple.

[0103] In several embodiments provided in the application, it should be understood that the disclosed devices and methods can be implemented in other ways. For example, the device embodiments described above are only illustrative, for example, the division of the units is only a logical function division, and actual implementation can have another division manner, for example, multiple units or components can be combined or integrated into another system, or some features can be ignored or not executed. In addition, the coupling or direct coupling or communication connection between the displayed or discussed units can be indirect coupling or communication connection through some interfaces, devices or units, which can be electrical, mechanical or other forms.

[0104] The units described as separate components can or can not be physically separated, and the components displayed as units can or can not be physical units, that is, they can be located in one place, or can be distributed on multiple network units. According to actual needs, part or all of the units can be selected to achieve the purpose of the embodiment scheme.

[0105] In addition, the functional units in each embodiment of the application can be integrated in one processing unit, or each unit can be physically present separately, or two or more units can be integrated in one unit. The integrated unit can be realized in the form of hardware or in the form of a software functional unit.

[0106] The integrated unit, if implemented in the form of a software function unit and sold or used as an independent product, can be stored in a computer readable storage medium. Based on such understanding, the technical solutions of the present application essentially or say the part that contributes to the prior art or the whole or part of the technical solutions can be embodied in the form of a software product. The computer software product is stored in a storage medium, includes a plurality of instructions for executing all or part of the steps of the method described in various embodiments of the present application by a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.). The aforementioned storage medium includes: a U disk, a mobile hard disk, a read-only memory (English full name: Read-Only Memory, English abbreviation: ROM), a random access memory (English full name: Random Access Memory, English abbreviation: RAM), a magnetic disk or an optical disk, and various media that can store program codes.

[0107] The above-described and the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present application, rather than limit them; although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions recorded in the foregoing embodiments, or make equivalent replacements for part of the technical features; and these modifications or replacements do not make the essence of the corresponding technical solutions deviate from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application.

Claims

1. A high-altitude area thunderstorm propagation path intelligent monitoring method, characterized in that, Comprise: When detecting that the high sea wave region is in thunderstorm weather, the interval time length of the thunderstorm weather generation time and the thunderstorm appearance time, the growth span of the thunderstorm number and the maximum duration of the thunderstorm peak value number in the thunderstorm region during the thunderstorm weather period are input into the regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis model to perform regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis, and the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region is obtained; the regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis model is: In the formula, F is the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region; JCS is the interval time length of the thunderstorm weather generation time and the thunderstorm appearance time in the thunderstorm region during the thunderstorm weather period; ZZK is the growth span of the thunderstorm number in the thunderstorm region during the thunderstorm weather period; ZXS is the maximum duration of the thunderstorm peak value number in the thunderstorm region; s1, s2 and s3 are all preset proportion coefficients, and s1>s2>s3>0; β is an error correction factor; ； By comparing the size of the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region and the thunderstorm characteristic threshold value, the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm region is determined; According to the thunderstorm appearance frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation region and the position movement deviation value of the thunderstorm generation region during the thunderstorm weather period, the propagation path analysis is performed, and the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation during the thunderstorm weather period is determined; According to the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm region and the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation during the thunderstorm weather period, the corresponding protection measures are taken for the thunderstorm region. By comparing the size of the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region and the thunderstorm characteristic threshold value, the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm region is determined, comprising: 2.The high-altitude area thunderstorm propagation path intelligent monitoring method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The size of the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region and the thunderstorm characteristic threshold value is compared; If the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region is greater than the thunderstorm characteristic threshold value, it is determined that the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm region is high; If the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region is less than or equal to the thunderstorm characteristic threshold value, it is determined that the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm region is low. According to the thunderstorm appearance frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation region and the position movement deviation value of the thunderstorm generation region during the thunderstorm weather period, the propagation path analysis is performed, and the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation during the thunderstorm weather period is determined, comprising: 3.The high-altitude area thunderstorm propagation path intelligent monitoring method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The thunderstorm appearance frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation region and the position movement deviation value of the thunderstorm generation region during the thunderstorm weather period are compared with the frequency threshold value and the position movement deviation threshold value respectively; If the thunderstorm appearance frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation region during the thunderstorm weather period is greater than the frequency threshold value, and the position movement deviation value of the thunderstorm generation region during the thunderstorm weather period is less than or equal to the position movement deviation threshold value, it is determined that the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation during the thunderstorm weather period is low; ​ If the frequency of the thunderstorm appearing in the same path in the thunderstorm generation area during the thunderstorm weather period is less than or equal to the frequency threshold, or the position moving deviation value of the thunderstorm generation area during the thunderstorm weather period is greater than the position moving deviation threshold, it is determined that the current thunderstorm path propagation influence degree in the thunderstorm weather period is high.

4. The high-altitude area thunderstorm propagation path intelligent monitoring method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The method further comprises: obtaining the position deviation value of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path at the same time in the thunderstorm area, the inconsistent frequency of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path in the same period, and the area deviation value of the area where the real-time propagation path is located and the area where the predicted propagation path is located in the thunderstorm area; inputting the position deviation value of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path at the same time in the thunderstorm area, the inconsistent frequency of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path in the same period, and the area deviation value of the area where the real-time propagation path is located and the area where the predicted propagation path is located in the thunderstorm area into the propagation path early warning model for propagation path early warning, and obtaining the propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm area; comparing the propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm area with the propagation path early warning coefficient threshold; if the propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm area is greater than the propagation path early warning coefficient threshold, it is determined that the propagation path prediction efficiency in the thunderstorm area is low, and the characteristic analysis of the thunderstorm area is re-performed.

5. The high-altitude area thunderstorm propagation path intelligent monitoring method according to claim 4, characterized in that, The propagation path early warning model is: ； wherein D is the propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm area; WP is the position deviation value of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path at the same time in the thunderstorm area; PL is the inconsistent frequency of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path in the same period; MP is the area deviation value of the area where the real-time propagation path is located and the area where the predicted propagation path is located in the thunderstorm area; gf1, gf2 and gf3 are all preset proportional coefficients, and gf1>gf2>gf3>1; and a is an error correction coefficient.

6. A high-altitude area thunderstorm propagation path intelligent monitoring system, characterized in that, It comprises: a server configured to generate a regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis signal and send it to a regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis module when a high sea wave area is in thunderstorm weather; the regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis module configured to perform regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis by obtaining the interval length between the thunderstorm weather generation time and the thunderstorm appearance time, the growth span of the number of thunderstorms, and the maximum duration of the number of thunderstorm peaks of the thunderstorm area in the thunderstorm weather period, generate a thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm area, and send a thunderstorm weather influence degree signal to the server by comparing the size of the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm area and the thunderstorm characteristic threshold; obtaining the interval length between the thunderstorm weather generation time and the thunderstorm appearance time, the growth span of the number of thunderstorms, and the maximum duration of the number of thunderstorm peaks of the thunderstorm area in the thunderstorm weather period for regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis, and generating a thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm area, comprising: ​ The interval between the time when thunderstorm weather occurs and the time when thunderstorm weather is generated, the growth span of the number of thunderstorms, and the maximum duration of the peak number of thunderstorms in the thunderstorm region during the thunderstorm weather period are input into a regional thunderstorm characteristic analysis model to analyze the characteristics of the thunderstorm region, and a thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region is obtained. ； In the formula, F is the thunderstorm characteristic analysis coefficient of the thunderstorm region; JCS is the interval between the time when thunderstorm weather occurs and the time when thunderstorm weather is generated in the thunderstorm region during the thunderstorm weather period; ZZK is the growth span of the number of thunderstorms in the thunderstorm region during the thunderstorm weather period; ZXS is the maximum duration of the peak number of thunderstorms in the thunderstorm region; s1, s2, and s3 are all preset proportion coefficients, and s1>s2>s3>0; and β is an error correction factor. The server is further configured to generate a propagation path analysis signal and send the signal to a path propagation analysis module. The path propagation analysis module is configured to obtain the thunderstorm occurrence frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation region during the thunderstorm weather period and the position movement deviation value of the thunderstorm generation region to perform propagation path analysis, determine the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation during the thunderstorm weather period, and generate a thunderstorm path propagation influence degree signal and send the signal to the server. The server is further configured to take corresponding protective measures for the thunderstorm region according to the influence degree of the current thunderstorm weather in the thunderstorm region and the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation during the thunderstorm weather period.

7. The high altitude region thunderstorm propagation path intelligent monitoring system of claim 6, wherein, The path propagation analysis module is specifically configured to: compare the thunderstorm occurrence frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation region during the thunderstorm weather period and the position movement deviation value of the thunderstorm generation region with a frequency threshold and a position movement deviation threshold, respectively; if the thunderstorm occurrence frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation region during the thunderstorm weather period is greater than the frequency threshold and the position movement deviation value of the thunderstorm generation region during the thunderstorm weather period is less than or equal to the position movement deviation threshold, it is determined that the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation during the thunderstorm weather period is low; if the thunderstorm occurrence frequency of the same path in the thunderstorm generation region during the thunderstorm weather period is less than or equal to the frequency threshold or the position movement deviation value of the thunderstorm generation region during the thunderstorm weather period is greater than the position movement deviation threshold, it is determined that the influence degree of the current thunderstorm path propagation during the thunderstorm weather period is high.

8. The high altitude region thunderstorm propagation path intelligent monitoring system of claim 6, wherein, The system further includes a propagation path early warning module configured to: obtain the position deviation value of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path at the same time, the inconsistent frequency of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path in the same period, and the area deviation value of the area where the real-time propagation path is located and the area where the predicted propagation path is located in the thunderstorm region; input the position deviation value of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path at the same time, the inconsistent frequency of the predicted propagation path and the real-time propagation path in the same period, and the area deviation value of the area where the real-time propagation path is located and the area where the predicted propagation path is located in the thunderstorm region into a propagation path early warning model to perform propagation path early warning, and obtain a propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm region; compare the propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm region with a propagation path early warning coefficient threshold; and If the propagation path early warning coefficient of the thunderstorm area is greater than the propagation path early warning coefficient threshold, it is determined that the propagation path prediction efficiency in the thunderstorm area is low, and the characteristics of the thunderstorm area are re-analyzed.

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