Cost management method and system for cross-border e-commerce

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of cross-border e-commerce cost management, in particular to a cost management method and system for cross-border e-commerce. The method comprises the steps of obtaining a macroeconomic factor set and foreign exchange option contract information, analyzing the macroeconomic factor set and the foreign exchange option contract information, and determining an external intervention risk; obtaining an internal influence factor set, analyzing the internal influence factor set and the macroeconomic factor set, and determining an operation intervention risk; based on the foreign exchange option contract information, according to an external intervention risk and an operation intervention risk, determining a total execution risk of the foreign exchange option contract; based on the foreign exchange option contract information and the execution total risk, analyzing the macroeconomic factor set and the internal influence factor set, and determining the execution income of the foreign exchange option contract; and outputting an execution report of the foreign exchange option contract according to the execution total risk and the execution income. According to the invention, the decision quality of cross-border e-commerce merchants is improved, the risk control capability of the merchants is enhanced, and the merchants are supported to formulate more effective exchange rate risk control strategies.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of cross-border e-commerce expense management, and in particular to an expense management method and system for cross-border e-commerce. Background Art

[0002] With the continuous development of economic globalization, many countries and regions are actively promoting the development of cross-border e-commerce and have introduced a series of policies to simplify customs procedures, reduce taxes and encourage companies to participate in international trade. At the same time, the development of Internet technology has also made the operation of cross-border e-commerce more efficient. The advancement of technologies such as logistics, payment and data analysis has made cross-border transactions more convenient and secure.

[0003] Due to the complexity of the links involved in cross-border e-commerce transactions and the involvement of different countries and regions, existing technologies make it difficult to efficiently manage the costs incurred in complex cross-border e-commerce transactions, which can easily cause merchants to lose control of costs or inaccurate profit forecasts, resulting in increased financial risks borne by merchants. Summary of the invention

[0004] The present application provides a cost management method and system for cross-border e-commerce to solve the above technical problems.

[0005] In a first aspect, the present application provides a cost management method for cross-border e-commerce, the method comprising: Obtaining a set of macroeconomic factors and foreign exchange option contract information, analyzing the set of macroeconomic factors and foreign exchange option contract information, and determining external intervention risks; Obtaining a set of internal influencing factors, analyzing the set of internal influencing factors and the set of macroeconomic factors, and determining operational intervention risks; Based on the foreign exchange option contract information, determining the total execution risk of the foreign exchange option contract according to the external intervention risk and the operational intervention risk; Based on the foreign exchange option contract information and the total execution risk, analyzing the macroeconomic factor set and the internal influencing factor set to determine the execution benefit of the foreign exchange option contract; Outputting an execution report of the foreign exchange option contract based on the total execution risk and the execution return.

[0006] Through the above technical solution, we can systematically analyze macroeconomic factors, foreign exchange option contract information and internal influencing factors, improve the decision-making quality of cross-border e-commerce merchants, enhance risk control capabilities, and optimize resource allocation. Through comprehensive risk and return analysis, we can not only help merchants more accurately evaluate the value of foreign exchange options and improve financial stability, but also enhance the competitiveness of merchants in the market, enabling them to respond more agilely to the rapidly changing economic environment. Overall, the above process provides merchants with a scientific basis to support them in formulating more effective exchange rate risk control strategies.

[0007] Optionally, the foreign exchange option contract information includes option fees, option periods, and option types, and the determining of the total execution risk of the foreign exchange option contract based on the foreign exchange option contract information and according to the external intervention risk and the operational intervention risk includes: Analyze the option cost, option period and option type to determine the inherent risks of the contract; The total execution risk is determined according to the external intervention risk, the operational intervention risk and the contract internal risk, specifically the following formula: ; in, For the external intervention risk, Risk of intervention for the said operation, For the risks inherent in the contract, is the option fee, is the option period, is the option type.

[0008] Through the above technical solution, the impact of three dimensions, namely the external economic environment, internal operational strategy and the foreign exchange option contract itself, on the total execution risk is comprehensively considered. Through mathematical analysis, based on the external intervention risk, operational intervention risk and foreign exchange option contract information, mathematical formulas are used to accurately quantify the total execution risk of the current foreign exchange option contract, thereby improving the accuracy, scientificity and comprehensiveness of the total execution risk.

[0009] Optionally, the option fee, option period and option type are analyzed to determine the internal risk of the contract, specifically the following formula: ; in, For the risks inherent in the contract, is the option fee, is the preset period impact index, is the option period, The impact index for the preset type, is the option type.

[0010] Through the above technical solution, in view of the different impacts of option costs, option cycles and option types on the internal risks of contracts, mathematical analysis methods are used to design corresponding mathematical function distribution descriptions and integrate the above different impacts, so as to accurately and comprehensively quantify the internal risks of contracts under the influence of option costs, option cycles and option types.

[0011] Optionally, the macroeconomic factor set includes the current exchange rate, the current tariff rate, the current inflation rate, exchange rate volatility, tariff volatility and inflation volatility, and the foreign exchange option contract information also includes option exchange rate and expected option return. The step of analyzing the macroeconomic factor set and foreign exchange option contract information to determine the external intervention risk includes: Determining the sensitivity of the return to the exchange rate based on the current exchange rate and the expected option return; determining an exchange rate difference based on the current exchange rate and the option exchange rate; The external intervention risk is determined based on the current exchange rate, the current tariff rate, the current inflation rate, the exchange rate volatility, the tariff volatility, the inflation volatility, the option exchange rate, the expected option return, the return sensitivity to the exchange rate and the exchange rate difference.

[0012] Through the above technical solution, based on the three major factors of exchange rate, tariff rate and inflation rate, combined with the corresponding volatility of the three major factors, some information of the foreign exchange option contract itself is introduced to comprehensively quantify the external intervention risk, improve the accuracy and comprehensiveness of the external intervention risk determination process, and thus improve the accuracy of the overall execution risk assessment of foreign exchange options.

[0013] Optionally, the external intervention risk is determined according to the current exchange rate, the current tariff rate, the current inflation rate, the exchange rate volatility, the tariff volatility, the inflation volatility, the option exchange rate, the expected option return, the return sensitivity to the exchange rate and the exchange rate difference, specifically by the following formula: ; in, For the external intervention risk, is the preset exchange rate impact coefficient, is the exchange rate volatility, is the sensitivity of the return to the exchange rate, is the current exchange rate, is the option exchange rate, is the exchange rate difference, is the preset tariff impact coefficient, For the current tariff rate, For the said tariff volatility, is the preset inflation impact coefficient, is the current inflation rate, is the inflation volatility, is the estimated option payoff.

[0014] Through the above technical solution, using mathematical analysis methods, based on the multi-dimensional data of current exchange rate, current tariff rate, current inflation rate, exchange rate volatility, tariff volatility, inflation volatility, option exchange rate, expected option return, sensitivity of return to exchange rate and exchange rate difference, through clear mathematical formulas, the risk of external intervention can be accurately quantified, providing accurate data basis for subsequent merchants to judge whether to execute foreign exchange option contracts to cope with adjustments brought about by exchange rates, tariffs and inflation.

[0015] Optionally, the set of internal influencing factors includes average market price, current market price, current supply chain cost, market price volatility and supply chain cost volatility, and the step of analyzing the set of internal influencing factors and the set of macroeconomic factors to determine the operational intervention risk includes: Analyzing the average market price and the current exchange rate to determine the sensitivity of the market price to the exchange rate; Analyze the current market price and current supply chain costs to determine profit margins; The operational intervention risk is determined based on the current supply chain cost, the market price volatility, the supply chain cost volatility, the market price sensitivity to the exchange rate and the profit margin.

[0016] Through the above technical solution, the average market price and the current exchange rate are analyzed, and the sensitivity of the market price to the exchange rate is evaluated, so as to determine the impact of exchange rate changes on product pricing, clarify the vulnerability of profits in the case of foreign exchange fluctuations, and at the same time, by comparing the current market price with the supply chain cost, accurately determine the profit margin, and help merchants evaluate their profitability in different market environments. Furthermore, taking into account the current market price volatility and combining it with the volatility of supply chain costs, the operational intervention risk is comprehensively determined.

[0017] Optionally, the operational intervention risk is determined according to the current supply chain cost, the market price volatility, the supply chain cost volatility, the market price sensitivity to the exchange rate and the profit margin, specifically the following formula: ; in, Risk of intervention for the said operation, is the preset market price impact coefficient, is the market price volatility, is the sensitivity of the market price to the exchange rate, is the current market price, is the current exchange rate, For the profit margin, is the current supply chain cost, is the preset cost impact coefficient, is the supply chain cost volatility.

[0018] Through the above technical solution, using mathematical analysis methods, comprehensively considering the current supply chain costs, market price volatility, supply chain cost volatility, market price sensitivity to exchange rates and profit margins, through clear mathematical formulas, the operational intervention risks are accurately quantified, in order to comprehensively evaluate the impact of merchant operating strategies on foreign exchange option contract risks.

[0019] Optionally, the step of analyzing the macroeconomic factor set and the internal influencing factor set based on the foreign exchange option contract information and the total execution risk to determine the execution benefit of the foreign exchange option contract includes: Comparing the estimated option income with the option cost to determine an income comparison result; Based on the benefit comparison result, determining an execution benefit index according to the expected option benefit, the option fee and the total execution risk; The execution profit is determined according to the execution profit index.

[0020] Through the above technical solution, the expected option income and option cost are compared, the actual profit potential of foreign exchange options is clarified, the net income of foreign exchange options is revealed, and a quantitative basis is provided for merchants to evaluate the execution strategy of foreign exchange options. Based on the income comparison results, combined with the expected option income, option cost and total execution risk, the execution income index is determined, so that merchants can clearly understand the expected income that can be obtained by executing the current foreign exchange option contract, and improve the scientific nature of the execution income analysis process.

[0021] Optionally, based on the benefit comparison result, the execution benefit index is determined according to the expected option benefit, the option fee and the total execution risk, specifically the following formula: ; in, is the execution profit index, is the expected option payoff, is the option fee, For the total risk of the execution, It is the preset risk impact coefficient.

[0022] Through the above technical solution, the expected option income, option fee and total execution risk are combined, and the execution profit index is calculated through a mathematical formula, providing a scientific means for merchants to evaluate the actual value of foreign exchange options, improving the scientific nature and foresight of merchants' foreign exchange option decisions, and enabling merchants to more clearly judge the profitability of foreign exchange options and their own risk tolerance when facing complex market fluctuations.

[0023] In a second aspect, the present application provides a cost management system for cross-border e-commerce, the system comprising: An external risk analysis module, used to obtain a set of macroeconomic factors and foreign exchange option contract information, analyze the set of macroeconomic factors and foreign exchange option contract information, and determine external intervention risks; An internal risk analysis module, used to obtain a set of internal influencing factors, analyze the set of internal influencing factors and the set of macroeconomic factors, and determine the operational intervention risk; A total risk determination module, configured to determine the total execution risk of the foreign exchange option contract based on the foreign exchange option contract information, according to the external intervention risk and the operational intervention risk; A benefit analysis module, configured to analyze the macroeconomic factor set and the internal influencing factor set based on the foreign exchange option contract information and the total execution risk, and determine the execution benefit of the foreign exchange option contract; A report output module is used to output the execution report of the foreign exchange option contract based on the total execution risk and the execution profit.

[0024] Optionally, the total risk determination module is specifically used to: Analyze the option cost, option period and option type to determine the inherent risks of the contract; The total execution risk is determined according to the external intervention risk, the operational intervention risk and the contract internal risk, specifically the following formula: ; in, For the external intervention risk, Risk of intervention for the said operation, For the risks inherent in the contract, is the option fee, is the option period, is the option type.

[0025] Optionally, when the total risk determination module analyzes the option fee, option period and option type to determine the internal risk of the contract, it is specifically the following formula: ; in, For the risks inherent in the contract, is the option fee, is the preset period impact index, is the option period, The impact index for the preset type, is the option type.

[0026] Optionally, the external risk analysis module is specifically used to: Determining the sensitivity of the return to the exchange rate based on the current exchange rate and the expected option return; determining an exchange rate difference based on the current exchange rate and the option exchange rate; The external intervention risk is determined based on the current exchange rate, the current tariff rate, the current inflation rate, the exchange rate volatility, the tariff volatility, the inflation volatility, the option exchange rate, the expected option return, the return sensitivity to the exchange rate and the exchange rate difference.

[0027] Optionally, when the external risk analysis module determines the external intervention risk according to the current exchange rate, the current tariff rate, the current inflation rate, the exchange rate volatility, the tariff volatility, the inflation volatility, the option exchange rate, the expected option return, the return sensitivity to the exchange rate and the exchange rate difference, the specific formula is as follows: ; in, For the external intervention risk, is the preset exchange rate impact coefficient, is the exchange rate volatility, is the sensitivity of the return to the exchange rate, is the current exchange rate, is the option exchange rate, is the exchange rate difference, is the preset tariff impact coefficient, For the current tariff rate, For the said tariff volatility, is the preset inflation impact coefficient, is the current inflation rate, is the inflation volatility, is the estimated option payoff.

[0028] Optionally, the internal risk analysis module is specifically used to: Analyzing the average market price and the current exchange rate to determine the sensitivity of the market price to the exchange rate; Analyze the current market price and current supply chain costs to determine profit margins; The operational intervention risk is determined based on the current supply chain cost, the market price volatility, the supply chain cost volatility, the market price sensitivity to the exchange rate and the profit margin.

[0029] Optionally, the internal risk analysis module determines the operational intervention risk according to the current supply chain cost, the market price volatility, the supply chain cost volatility, the market price sensitivity to the exchange rate and the profit margin, specifically the following formula: ; in, Risk of intervention for the said operation, is the preset market price impact coefficient, is the market price volatility, is the sensitivity of the market price to the exchange rate, is the current market price, is the current exchange rate, For the profit margin, is the current supply chain cost, is the preset cost impact coefficient, is the supply chain cost volatility.

[0030] Optionally, the revenue analysis module is specifically used to: Comparing the estimated option income with the option cost to determine an income comparison result; Based on the benefit comparison result, determining an execution benefit index according to the expected option benefit, the option fee and the total execution risk; The execution profit is determined according to the execution profit index.

[0031] Optionally, when the benefit analysis module determines the execution benefit index based on the benefit comparison result, the expected option benefit, the option fee and the total execution risk, the specific formula is as follows: ; in, is the execution profit index, is the expected option payoff, is the option fee, For the total risk of the execution, It is the preset risk impact coefficient. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0032] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions in the prior art, a brief introduction will be given below to the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present application. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying any creative labor.

[0033] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of an application scenario provided for an embodiment of the present application; Figure 2 A flowchart of a cost management method for cross-border e-commerce provided in one embodiment of the present application; Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the structure of a cost management system for cross-border e-commerce provided in one embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0034] In order to make the purpose, technical scheme and advantages of the embodiments of the present application clearer, the technical scheme in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present application. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present application, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0035] In addition, the term "and / or" in this article is only a description of the association relationship of associated objects, indicating that there can be three relationships. For example, A and / or B can represent: A exists alone, A and B exist at the same time, and B exists alone. In addition, the character " / " in this article, unless otherwise specified, generally means that the associated objects before and after are in an "or" relationship.

[0036] The embodiments of the present application are further described in detail below in conjunction with the drawings in the specification.

[0037] Due to the complexity of the links involved in cross-border e-commerce transactions and the involvement of different countries and regions, existing technologies make it difficult to efficiently manage the costs incurred in complex cross-border e-commerce transactions, which can easily cause merchants to lose control of costs or inaccurate profit forecasts, resulting in increased financial risks borne by merchants.

[0038] Based on this, the present application provides a cost management method and system for cross-border e-commerce, which systematically analyzes macroeconomic factors, foreign exchange option contract information and internal influencing factors, improves the decision-making quality of cross-border e-commerce merchants, enhances risk control capabilities, and optimizes resource allocation. Through comprehensive risk and benefit analysis, it not only helps merchants to more accurately evaluate the value of foreign exchange options and improve financial stability, but also enhances the competitiveness of merchants in the market, enabling them to respond more agilely to the rapidly changing economic environment. Overall, the above process provides merchants with a scientific basis to support them in formulating more effective exchange rate risk control strategies.

[0039] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of an application scenario provided for this application. In the process of cross-border e-commerce merchants making exchange rate risk control decisions, the method provided by this application is applied to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the risks and benefits brought about by the execution of foreign exchange option contracts for reference by cross-border e-commerce merchants.

[0040] Specifically, the method provided in the present application is applied to any server, which communicates with the international financial data platform, obtains the macroeconomic factor set provided by the international financial data platform through the server, and obtains the internal influencing factor set and foreign exchange option contract information provided by cross-border e-commerce merchants, systematically analyzes macroeconomic factors, foreign exchange option contract information and internal influencing factors, and obtains the total execution risk and execution return. Based on the total execution risk and execution return, the corresponding execution report is output to the cross-border e-commerce merchants, thereby improving the decision-making quality of cross-border e-commerce merchants, enhancing risk control capabilities, and optimizing resource allocation. Through comprehensive risk and return analysis, it not only helps merchants to more accurately evaluate the value of foreign exchange options and improve financial stability, but also improves the competitiveness of merchants in the market, enabling them to respond more agilely to the rapidly changing economic environment. Overall, the above process provides merchants with a scientific basis and supports them in formulating more effective exchange rate risk control strategies.

[0041] For specific implementation methods, please refer to the following embodiments.

[0042] Figure 2 This is a flow chart of a method for cost management of cross-border e-commerce provided in one embodiment of the present application. The method of this embodiment can be applied to the server in the above scenario. Figure 2 As shown, the method includes: S201. Obtain and analyze the macroeconomic factor set and foreign exchange option contract information to determine the external intervention risk.

[0043] The macroeconomic factor set can be a collection of macroeconomic factors that affect foreign exchange option risks during the overall external economic development process. The macroeconomic factor set may include exchange rate volatility, inflation volatility, etc. The macroeconomic factor set can be obtained through the international financial data platform.

[0044] The foreign exchange option contract information may be detailed information on the foreign exchange option contract that the current cross-border e-commerce merchant has the intention to sign. The foreign exchange option contract information may include option fees, option types, etc. The foreign exchange option contract information may be provided by the cross-border e-commerce merchant.

[0045] External intervention risk can be the risk of foreign exchange option contracts caused by changes in external economic factors.

[0046] Specifically, a foreign exchange option contract is a financial derivative that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a certain amount of foreign exchange at a predetermined exchange rate at a specified future time. In the field of cross-border e-commerce, foreign exchange options are mainly used to hedge foreign exchange risks. Since foreign exchange options are closely involved in international market transactions, the risks of foreign exchange options will be directly affected by changes in international macroeconomic factors, such as exchange rate fluctuations, inflation, etc. In the process of analyzing the risks of foreign exchange option contracts, a comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic factor set and foreign exchange option contract information is conducted through mathematical analysis to determine the impact of macroeconomic factors on the risks of foreign exchange option contracts and derive the external intervention risks.

[0047] S202. Obtain a set of internal influencing factors, analyze the set of internal influencing factors and the set of macroeconomic factors, and determine the operational intervention risk.

[0048] The set of internal influencing factors can be a collection of internal factors that affect foreign exchange option risks that need to be considered during the internal operations of cross-border e-commerce merchants. The set of internal influencing factors may include market price volatility and supply chain cost volatility, etc. The set of internal influencing factors can be obtained by cross-border e-commerce merchants using market research tools.

[0049] Operational intervention risk can be the foreign exchange option contract risk caused by changes in the merchant’s internal operational strategy.

[0050] Specifically, since cross-border e-commerce mainly targets the international market, its internal operating strategy needs to change according to fluctuations in the external international market. Especially when it comes to foreign exchange transactions, the operating strategy needs to be highly sensitive to exchange rate changes in order to ensure the merchant's risk control capabilities in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, some factors involved in the merchant's internal operations will also have a significant impact on the risk of foreign exchange option contracts. In the process of analyzing the risk of foreign exchange option contracts, mathematical analysis methods are used to analyze the internal influencing factor set based on the macroeconomic factor set to determine the impact of the internal influencing factor set on the risk of foreign exchange option contracts and derive the operational intervention risk.

[0051] S203. Based on the foreign exchange option contract information, determine the total execution risk of the foreign exchange option contract according to the external intervention risk and the operational intervention risk.

[0052] The total execution risk can be the risk that the merchant needs to bear when executing the current foreign exchange option contract after combining the risks generated by external, internal and the contract itself.

[0053] Specifically, the risk of foreign exchange option contracts is also affected by the key content of the contract itself. For example, the longer the option period of a foreign exchange option contract, the longer the period for merchants to execute transactions based on the exchange rate specified in the contract. The longer the transaction period, the more variables and the greater the uncertainty. The corresponding foreign exchange option contract risk will increase accordingly. Through mathematical analysis, the foreign exchange option contract information, external intervention risk and operational intervention risk are comprehensively analyzed to make the total execution risk more comprehensive.

[0054] S204. Based on the foreign exchange option contract information and the total execution risk, analyze the macroeconomic factor set and the internal influencing factor set to determine the execution profit of the foreign exchange option contract.

[0055] The execution profit can be the estimated profit that the merchant will obtain during the option period after executing the current foreign exchange option contract.

[0056] Specifically, based on the foreign exchange option contract information and the total execution risk, mathematical analysis is used to further analyze the macroeconomic factor set and the internal influencing factor set, and to estimate the execution income that merchants can obtain from foreign exchange option contracts while assuming the total execution risk, so that merchants can intuitively understand the estimated income that can be obtained from executing the current foreign exchange option contract.

[0057] S205. Output the execution report of the foreign exchange option contract based on the total execution risk and execution profit.

[0058] The execution report may be a summary of the total execution risk and the expected execution profit to be obtained by executing the current foreign exchange option contract.

[0059] Specifically, after analyzing and obtaining the total execution risk and execution benefit corresponding to the current foreign exchange option execution, the total execution risk and execution benefit are graphically displayed through data visualization technology, such as D3.js, to form an execution report of the foreign exchange option contract, and the above-mentioned execution contract is output through human-computer interaction equipment, such as high-definition display screens, and provided to cross-border e-commerce merchants to provide a reference for the merchants.

[0060] Through the method provided in this embodiment, macroeconomic factors, foreign exchange option contract information and internal influencing factors are systematically analyzed to improve the decision-making quality of cross-border e-commerce merchants, enhance risk control capabilities, and optimize resource allocation. Through comprehensive risk and return analysis, it not only helps merchants to more accurately evaluate the value of foreign exchange options and improve financial stability, but also enhances the competitiveness of merchants in the market, enabling them to respond more agilely to the rapidly changing economic environment. Overall, the above process provides merchants with a scientific basis to support them in formulating more effective exchange rate risk control strategies.

[0061] In some embodiments, the option fee, option period and option type are analyzed to determine the internal risk of the contract; and the total execution risk is determined according to the external intervention risk, the operational intervention risk and the internal risk of the contract, which is specifically the following formula (1): (1); in, For the external intervention risk, Risk of intervention for the said operation, For the risks inherent in the contract, is the option fee, is the option period, is the option type.

[0062] Foreign exchange option contract information includes option fee, option period, and option type.

[0063] Option fees can be the amount of fees that a trader needs to pay in order to obtain the rights of a foreign exchange option contract.

[0064] The option period can be the execution period specified in the foreign exchange option contract.

[0065] The option type may be a type of foreign exchange option in a foreign exchange option contract, and the option type may include a call option and a put option.

[0066] Internal risks of a contract can be the contract execution risks caused by key information in the contract, such as option fees, option cycles, and option types.

[0067] Specifically, through formula (1) Simply add up the external intervention risk and operational intervention risk, and substitute the option cost, option period and option type into the function In this paper, the impact of option fees, option cycles and option types in foreign exchange option contracts on the total execution risk is quantified, and the impact of three dimensions, namely the external economic environment, internal operating strategies and the foreign exchange option contracts themselves, on the total execution risk is comprehensively considered to accurately derive the total execution risk of the current foreign exchange option contracts.

[0068] Through the method provided in this embodiment, the impact of the three dimensions of external economic environment, internal operational strategy and foreign exchange option contract itself on the total execution risk is comprehensively considered. Through mathematical analysis, on the basis of external intervention risk, operational intervention risk and foreign exchange option contract information, mathematical formulas are used to accurately quantify the total execution risk of the current foreign exchange option contract, thereby improving the accuracy, scientificity and comprehensiveness of the total execution risk.

[0069] In some embodiments, the option cost, option period and option type are analyzed to determine the internal risk of the contract, specifically, the following formula (2): (2); in, For the internal risk of the contract, is the option fee, is the preset period impact index, is the option period, The impact index for the preset type, Option type.

[0070] The preset cycle impact index may be a relationship index that expresses the impact relationship between the option cycle and the internal risk of the contract. The preset cycle impact index may be obtained by analyzing historical contract information.

[0071] The preset type impact index may be a relationship index that expresses the impact relationship between the option type and the internal risk of the contract. The preset type impact index may be obtained by analyzing historical contract information.

[0072] Specifically, option fees When directly affecting the internal risk of the contract, the change in option fees usually has a logarithmic effect on the risk. This is because in economics, in many cases, the level of return and the level of risk maintain a certain relationship. Excessive option fees will not increase the internal risk of the contract in a linear manner, but in a gradual manner. Through the logarithmic function in formula (2), Can reasonably reflect this gradual nature.

[0073] At the same time, through formula (2) Measure the impact of option cycles on the internal risk of the contract, using the preset cycle impact index , indicating how changes in cycles affect risk. Long-term foreign exchange options generally have greater uncertainty, so risk increases over time, through Describe the nonlinear effect of option period on the contract's internal risk.

[0074] Further, through The impact of option types on the internal risk of contracts is introduced. Different types of options (call and put) perform differently in asset price fluctuations. This difference can be reflected in the form of an exponential function. High-risk option types, such as call options with higher volatility, will significantly increase the internal risk of the contract.

[0075] Through the method provided in this embodiment, in view of the different impacts of option costs, option cycles and option types on the internal risks of contracts, mathematical analysis is used to design corresponding mathematical function distribution descriptions and integrate the above different impacts, so as to accurately and comprehensively quantify the internal risks of contracts under the influence of option costs, option cycles and option types.

[0076] In some embodiments, the sensitivity of returns to the exchange rate is determined based on the current exchange rate and the expected option returns; the exchange rate difference is determined based on the current exchange rate and the option exchange rate; and the risk of external intervention is determined based on the current exchange rate, the current tariff rate, the current inflation rate, the exchange rate volatility, the tariff volatility, the inflation volatility, the option exchange rate, the expected option returns, the sensitivity of returns to the exchange rate and the exchange rate difference.

[0077] The set of macroeconomic factors includes current exchange rate, current tariff rate, current inflation rate, exchange rate volatility, tariff volatility, and inflation volatility.

[0078] Foreign exchange options contract information also includes option exchange rates and estimated option payoffs.

[0079] The current exchange rate may be the exchange rate between the quote currency and the base currency currently required by the merchant.

[0080] The current tariff rate may be the tariff rate of the product that the merchant is currently targeting to sell in the target region.

[0081] The current inflation rate may be the inflation rate of the target region where the merchant currently sells.

[0082] The exchange rate volatility may be the degree of exchange rate fluctuation in the target region where the merchant currently sells.

[0083] Tariff volatility can be the degree of fluctuation of tariff rates in the target regions where merchants currently sell goods.

[0084] Inflation volatility may be the degree of volatility of the inflation rate in the target area where the merchant currently sells.

[0085] The option rate can be the strike rate agreed upon in the foreign exchange option contract.

[0086] The expected option return can be the estimated return that can be obtained by executing a foreign exchange option contract under current market conditions.

[0087] The sensitivity of returns to exchange rates can be the sensitivity of foreign exchange option returns to exchange rate fluctuations.

[0088] The exchange rate differential can be the difference between the current exchange rate and the option exchange rate.

[0089] Specifically, exchange rate fluctuations directly affect the income and costs of cross-border e-commerce merchants. If merchants sell in the base currency, the instability of the exchange rate will cause the actual income to fluctuate greatly when converted to the quoted currency. The greater the volatility of the exchange rate, the greater the uncertainty of the time value and intrinsic value of the option, which in turn leads to a greater risk of external intervention. Changes in tariffs directly affect the cost structure of cross-border e-commerce products. If tariffs rise, the import cost of goods will increase, and merchants will not be able to pass on these costs, which will affect profits. When tariffs fluctuate frequently, merchants need to consider the increase in uncertainty in income brought about by tariff changes when choosing foreign exchange option contracts. Inflation fluctuations affect consumers' purchasing power, thereby affecting the sales of cross-border e-commerce. High inflation will cause consumers to cut spending and reduce demand for overseas goods. Rising inflation will also increase production and transportation costs. Merchants need to face higher operating costs and cannot pass them on to consumers by raising prices, further affecting their profits. Therefore, through mathematical analysis, based on the three major elements of exchange rate, tariff rate and inflation rate, combined with the volatility corresponding to the three major elements, some information of the foreign exchange option contract itself is introduced to comprehensively quantify the risk of external intervention.

[0090] Through the method provided in this embodiment, based on the three major factors of exchange rate, tariff rate and inflation rate, combined with the volatility corresponding to the three major factors, some information of the foreign exchange option contract itself is introduced to comprehensively quantify the external intervention risk, improve the accuracy and comprehensiveness of the external intervention risk determination process, and thus improve the accuracy of the overall execution risk assessment of foreign exchange options.

[0091] In some embodiments, the external intervention risk is determined based on the current exchange rate, the current tariff rate, the current inflation rate, the exchange rate volatility, the tariff volatility, the inflation volatility, the option exchange rate, the expected option return, the return sensitivity to the exchange rate and the exchange rate difference, specifically the following formula (3): (3); in, To prevent external intervention risks, is the preset exchange rate impact coefficient, is the exchange rate volatility, is the sensitivity of earnings to exchange rate, is the current exchange rate, is the option exchange rate, is the exchange rate difference, is the preset tariff impact coefficient, is the current tariff rate, For tariff volatility, is the preset inflation impact coefficient, is the current inflation rate, is the volatility of inflation, is the expected option payoff.

[0092] The preset exchange rate impact coefficient may be a coefficient value that reflects the impact of exchange rate changes on external intervention risks.

[0093] The preset tariff impact coefficient can be a coefficient value that reflects the impact of changes in tariff rates on external intervention risks.

[0094] The preset inflation impact coefficient may be a coefficient value that reflects the impact of changes in inflation rate on external intervention risks.

[0095] Specifically, Represents exchange rate volatility, indicating the fluctuation range of exchange rate. Describes the change in option payoffs when the exchange rate changes. It reflects the potential impact of market exchange rate on option returns. Combining the above parameters, It describes that the greater the volatility of the exchange rate, the more sensitive the option payoff is to the exchange rate, and the higher the current exchange rate is above the option exchange rate, the higher the risk of external intervention.

[0096] At the same time, the level of tariff rates will directly affect commodity prices and economic activities, and tariff volatility reflects the uncertainty of tariff policies. Describing the contribution of tariff rates and their volatility to external intervention risk, it is shown that high tariffs and high volatility increase external intervention risk.

[0097] Furthermore, the uncertainty brought about by inflation rate fluctuations will affect market expectations, which in turn will affect option returns, thereby affecting the overall external intervention risk. Describe the impact of inflation rate fluctuations on external intervention risks.

[0098] Through the method provided in this embodiment, by means of mathematical analysis, based on the multi-dimensional data of current exchange rate, current tariff rate, current inflation rate, exchange rate volatility, tariff volatility, inflation volatility, option exchange rate, expected option return, sensitivity of return to exchange rate and exchange rate difference, a clear mathematical formula is used to accurately quantify the risk of external intervention, thereby providing accurate data basis for subsequent merchants to determine whether to execute foreign exchange option contracts to cope with adjustments brought about by exchange rates, tariffs and inflation.

[0099] In some embodiments, the average market price and the current exchange rate are analyzed to determine the sensitivity of the market price to the exchange rate; the current market price and the current supply chain cost are analyzed to determine the profit margin; and the operational intervention risk is determined based on the current supply chain cost, market price volatility, supply chain cost volatility, market price sensitivity to the exchange rate and the profit margin.

[0100] The set of internal influencing factors includes average market price, current market price, current supply chain cost, market price volatility, and supply chain cost volatility.

[0101] The average market price may be the average price of the product to be sold by the merchant in the market of the target sales area.

[0102] The current market price may be the selling price of the product to be sold by the current merchant in the market of the target sales area.

[0103] The current supply chain cost may be the cost currently paid by merchants to obtain products to be sold from the upstream supply chain.

[0104] Market price volatility may be the fluctuation range of the selling price of the product currently being sold by the merchant in the market of the target selling area. Market price volatility may be obtained by analyzing historical selling price data.

[0105] Supply chain cost volatility can be the fluctuation range of the cost that merchants currently pay to obtain products for sale from the upstream supply chain. Supply chain cost volatility can be obtained by analyzing historical purchase data.

[0106] The price sensitivity to exchange rate may be the sensitivity of the price of the product to be sold by the merchant to exchange rate fluctuations.

[0107] The profit margin can be the difference between the current market price and the current supply chain cost.

[0108] Specifically, when market prices are highly sensitive to exchange rate changes, small exchange rate fluctuations may lead to larger changes in profits, requiring merchants to be more cautious when evaluating the execution of foreign exchange option contracts. If the profit margin is small, it means that the merchant's profitability is very sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations. When executing foreign exchange option contracts, it is necessary to calculate the risk of potential profit reduction to determine the required degree of exchange rate hedging. Fluctuations in supply chain costs will increase overall operational risks. If supply chain costs are unstable, the merchant's marginal costs will change accordingly, which will in turn affect profit margins. This fluctuation needs to be managed together with the risks of foreign exchange option contracts. Therefore, through mathematical analysis, the current supply chain costs, market price volatility, supply chain cost volatility, market price sensitivity to exchange rates and profit margins are comprehensively quantified to accurately and comprehensively quantify operational intervention risks.

[0109] Through the method provided in this embodiment, the average market price and the current exchange rate are analyzed, and the sensitivity of the market price to the exchange rate is evaluated, so as to determine the impact of exchange rate changes on product pricing, clarify the vulnerability of profits in the case of foreign exchange fluctuations, and at the same time, by comparing the current market price with the supply chain cost, accurately determine the profit margin, and help merchants evaluate their profitability in different market environments. Furthermore, taking into account the current market price volatility and combining it with the volatility of supply chain costs, the operational intervention risk is comprehensively determined.

[0110] In some embodiments, the operational intervention risk is determined based on the current supply chain cost, market price volatility, supply chain cost volatility, market price sensitivity to exchange rates, and profit margins, specifically the following formula (4): (4); in, To intervene in the risk of operation, is the preset market price impact coefficient, is the market price volatility, is the market price sensitivity to the exchange rate, is the current market price, is the current exchange rate, For profit margins, is the current supply chain cost, is the preset cost impact coefficient, Supply chain cost volatility.

[0111] The preset market price impact coefficient may be a coefficient indicating the degree of impact of commodity market price fluctuations on operational intervention risks, and the preset market price impact coefficient may be obtained by analyzing historical market data.

[0112] The preset cost impact coefficient may be a coefficient indicating the degree of impact of supply chain cost fluctuations on operational intervention risk, and the preset cost impact coefficient may be obtained by analyzing historical supply chain data.

[0113] Specifically, as market prices fluctuate, merchants’ profit margins will also change accordingly, and the sensitivity of market prices to exchange rates This further increases the impact of market price fluctuations. Therefore, the impact of market price fluctuations can be expressed as . Supply Chain Costs Volatility It will directly affect the overall operating cost, and then affect the profit and operating risk. Its impact can be expressed as , taking into account the impact of the above-mentioned market prices and supply chain costs, the operational intervention risks are accurately quantified.

[0114] Through the method provided in this embodiment, mathematical analysis is used to comprehensively consider the current supply chain costs, market price volatility, supply chain cost volatility, market price sensitivity to exchange rates and profit margins, and through clear mathematical formulas, the operational intervention risks are accurately quantified to comprehensively evaluate the impact of merchant operating strategies on foreign exchange option contract risks.

[0115] In some embodiments, the expected option return is compared with the option cost to determine a return comparison result; based on the return comparison result, an execution return index is determined according to the expected option return, option cost and total execution risk; and based on the execution return index, the execution return is determined.

[0116] The execution profit index can be a quantitative data used to evaluate the size of the profit that the merchant can obtain after the current foreign exchange option contract is executed. The larger the execution profit index is, the higher the expected profit that the merchant can obtain after executing the current foreign exchange option contract.

[0117] Specifically, after obtaining the total execution risk, the actual profit potential of foreign exchange options is clarified by comparing the expected option return with the option cost. Based on the return comparison results, mathematical analysis is used to comprehensively analyze the expected option return, option cost and total execution risk, and the execution return index is quantified. The specific numerical value of the execution return index reflects the level of execution return.

[0118] Through the method provided in this embodiment, the expected option income is compared with the option cost, the actual profit potential of the foreign exchange option is clarified, the net income of the foreign exchange option is revealed, and a quantitative basis is provided for merchants to evaluate the execution strategy of foreign exchange options. Based on the income comparison results, combined with the expected option income, option cost and total execution risk, the execution income index is determined, so that merchants can clearly understand the expected income that can be obtained by executing the current foreign exchange option contract, thereby improving the scientific nature of the execution income analysis process.

[0119] In some embodiments, based on the benefit comparison result, the execution benefit index is determined according to the expected option benefit, option cost and total execution risk, specifically, the following formula (5): (5); in, To implement the return index, is the expected option payoff, is the option fee, To perform the total risk, It is the preset risk impact coefficient.

[0120] The preset risk impact coefficient may be a coefficient that expresses the degree of influence of the total execution risk on the execution return. The preset risk impact coefficient may be obtained by analyzing historical execution data.

[0121] Specifically, when the expected option payoff is greater than the option cost, that is, When , the calculation of the execution profit index is: ,at this time, Represents the positive return of the option, minus the total risk-adjusted cost of the exercise encountered during the exercise .

[0122] When the expected option payoff is less than or equal to the option cost, , the net benefit should take into account the situation of no benefit, so the reverse calculation is used, that is, , which reflects the loss caused by the failure to exercise the option, still needs to deduct the corresponding risk fee.

[0123] Through the method provided in this embodiment, the expected option income, option fee and total execution risk are combined, and the execution income index is calculated through a mathematical formula, which provides a scientific means for merchants to evaluate the actual value of foreign exchange options, improves the scientific nature and foresight of merchants' foreign exchange option decisions, and enables merchants to more clearly judge the profitability of foreign exchange options and their own risk tolerance when facing complex market fluctuations.

[0124] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of a cost management system for cross-border e-commerce provided in one embodiment of the present application is shown in FIG. Figure 3 As shown, the expense management system 300 for cross-border e-commerce of this embodiment includes: an external risk analysis module 301, an internal risk analysis module 302, a total risk determination module 303, a benefit analysis module 304 and a report output module 305.

[0125] The external risk analysis module 301 is used to obtain a macroeconomic factor set and foreign exchange option contract information, analyze the macroeconomic factor set and foreign exchange option contract information, and determine external intervention risks; An internal risk analysis module 302 is used to obtain an internal influencing factor set, analyze the internal influencing factor set and the macroeconomic factor set, and determine the operational intervention risk; A total risk determination module 303, configured to determine the total execution risk of the foreign exchange option contract based on the foreign exchange option contract information, according to the external intervention risk and the operational intervention risk; A benefit analysis module 304, configured to analyze the macroeconomic factor set and the internal influencing factor set based on the foreign exchange option contract information and the total execution risk, and determine the execution benefit of the foreign exchange option contract; The report output module 305 is used to output the execution report of the foreign exchange option contract according to the total execution risk and the execution profit.

[0126] Optionally, the total risk determination module 303 is specifically configured to: Analyze the option cost, option period and option type to determine the inherent risks of the contract; The total execution risk is determined according to the external intervention risk, the operational intervention risk and the contract internal risk, specifically the following formula: ; in, For the external intervention risk, Risk of intervention for the said operation, For the risks inherent in the contract, is the option fee, is the option period, is the option type.

[0127] Optionally, the total risk determination module 303 analyzes the option cost, option period and option type to determine the internal risk of the contract using the following formula: ; in, For the risks inherent in the contract, is the option fee, is the preset period impact index, is the option period, The impact index for the preset type, is the option type.

[0128] Optionally, the external risk analysis module 301 is specifically used to: Determining the sensitivity of the return to the exchange rate based on the current exchange rate and the expected option return; determining an exchange rate difference based on the current exchange rate and the option exchange rate; The external intervention risk is determined based on the current exchange rate, the current tariff rate, the current inflation rate, the exchange rate volatility, the tariff volatility, the inflation volatility, the option exchange rate, the expected option return, the return sensitivity to the exchange rate and the exchange rate difference.

[0129] Optionally, when the external risk analysis module 301 determines the external intervention risk according to the current exchange rate, the current tariff rate, the current inflation rate, the exchange rate volatility, the tariff volatility, the inflation volatility, the option exchange rate, the expected option return, the return sensitivity to the exchange rate and the exchange rate difference, it is specifically the following formula: ; in, For the external intervention risk, is the preset exchange rate impact coefficient, is the exchange rate volatility, is the sensitivity of the return to the exchange rate, is the current exchange rate, is the option exchange rate, is the exchange rate difference, is the preset tariff impact coefficient, For the current tariff rate, For the said tariff volatility, is the preset inflation impact coefficient, is the current inflation rate, is the inflation volatility, is the estimated option payoff.

[0130] Optionally, the internal risk analysis module 302 is specifically used to: Analyzing the average market price and the current exchange rate to determine the sensitivity of the market price to the exchange rate; Analyze the current market price and current supply chain costs to determine profit margins; The operational intervention risk is determined based on the current supply chain cost, the market price volatility, the supply chain cost volatility, the market price sensitivity to the exchange rate and the profit margin.

[0131] Optionally, the internal risk analysis module 302 determines the operational intervention risk according to the current supply chain cost, the market price volatility, the supply chain cost volatility, the market price sensitivity to the exchange rate and the profit margin, specifically the following formula: ; in, Risk of intervention for the said operation, is the preset market price impact coefficient, is the market price volatility, is the sensitivity of the market price to the exchange rate, is the current market price, is the current exchange rate, For the profit margin, is the current supply chain cost, is the preset cost impact coefficient, is the supply chain cost volatility.

[0132] Optionally, the revenue analysis module 304 is specifically used to: Comparing the estimated option income with the option cost to determine an income comparison result; Based on the benefit comparison result, determining an execution benefit index according to the expected option benefit, the option fee and the total execution risk; The execution profit is determined according to the execution profit index.

[0133] Optionally, the benefit analysis module 304 determines the execution benefit index based on the benefit comparison result, the expected option benefit, the option fee and the total execution risk, using the following formula: ; in, is the execution profit index, is the expected option payoff, is the option fee, For the total risk of the execution, It is the preset risk impact coefficient.

[0134] The system of this embodiment can be used to execute the method of any of the above embodiments. The implementation principles and technical effects are similar and will not be described in detail here.

Claims

1. A cost management method for cross-border e-commerce, characterized in that: include: Obtaining a set of macroeconomic factors and foreign exchange option contract information, analyzing the set of macroeconomic factors and foreign exchange option contract information, and determining external intervention risks; Obtaining a set of internal influencing factors, analyzing the set of internal influencing factors and the set of macroeconomic factors, and determining operational intervention risks; Based on the foreign exchange option contract information, determining the total execution risk of the foreign exchange option contract according to the external intervention risk and the operational intervention risk; Based on the foreign exchange option contract information and the total execution risk, analyzing the macroeconomic factor set and the internal influencing factor set to determine the execution benefit of the foreign exchange option contract; Outputting an execution report of the foreign exchange option contract based on the total execution risk and the execution return.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The foreign exchange option contract information includes option fees, option periods, and option types. The determining of the total execution risk of the foreign exchange option contract based on the foreign exchange option contract information and according to the external intervention risk and the operational intervention risk includes: Analyze the option cost, option period and option type to determine the inherent risks of the contract; The total execution risk is determined according to the external intervention risk, the operational intervention risk and the contract internal risk, specifically the following formula: ； in, For the external intervention risk, Risk of intervention for the said operation, For the risks inherent in the contract, is the option fee, is the option period, is the option type.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The analysis of the option cost, option period and option type to determine the internal risk of the contract is specifically the following formula: ； in, For the risks inherent in the contract, is the option fee, is the preset period impact index, is the option period, The impact index for the preset type, is the option type.

4. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The macroeconomic factor set includes the current exchange rate, the current tariff rate, the current inflation rate, exchange rate volatility, tariff volatility and inflation volatility. The foreign exchange option contract information also includes option exchange rate and expected option return. The analysis of the macroeconomic factor set and foreign exchange option contract information to determine the external intervention risk includes: Determining the sensitivity of the return to the exchange rate based on the current exchange rate and the expected option return; determining an exchange rate difference based on the current exchange rate and the option exchange rate; The external intervention risk is determined based on the current exchange rate, the current tariff rate, the current inflation rate, the exchange rate volatility, the tariff volatility, the inflation volatility, the option exchange rate, the expected option return, the return sensitivity to the exchange rate and the exchange rate difference.

5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that The external intervention risk is determined according to the current exchange rate, the current tariff rate, the current inflation rate, the exchange rate volatility, the tariff volatility, the inflation volatility, the option exchange rate, the expected option return, the return sensitivity to the exchange rate and the exchange rate difference, specifically the following formula: ； in, For the external intervention risk, is the preset exchange rate impact coefficient, is the exchange rate volatility, is the sensitivity of the return to the exchange rate, is the current exchange rate, is the option exchange rate, is the exchange rate difference, is the preset tariff impact coefficient, For the current tariff rate, For the said tariff volatility, is the preset inflation impact coefficient, is the current inflation rate, is the inflation volatility, is the estimated option payoff.

6. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that The internal influencing factor set includes average market price, current market price, current supply chain cost, market price volatility and supply chain cost volatility. The analyzing the internal influencing factor set and the macroeconomic factor set to determine the operational intervention risk includes: Analyzing the average market price and the current exchange rate to determine the sensitivity of the market price to the exchange rate; Analyze the current market price and current supply chain costs to determine profit margins; The operational intervention risk is determined based on the current supply chain cost, the market price volatility, the supply chain cost volatility, the market price sensitivity to the exchange rate and the profit margin.

7. The method according to claim 6, characterized in that The operation intervention risk is determined according to the current supply chain cost, the market price volatility, the supply chain cost volatility, the market price sensitivity to the exchange rate and the profit margin, specifically the following formula: ； in, Risk of intervention for the said operation, is the preset market price impact coefficient, is the market price volatility, is the sensitivity of the market price to the exchange rate, is the current market price, is the current exchange rate, For the profit margin, is the current supply chain cost, is the preset cost impact coefficient, is the supply chain cost volatility.

8. The method according to claim 7, characterized in that The step of analyzing the macroeconomic factor set and the internal influencing factor set based on the foreign exchange option contract information and the total execution risk to determine the execution benefit of the foreign exchange option contract includes: Comparing the estimated option income with the option cost to determine an income comparison result; Based on the benefit comparison result, determining an execution benefit index according to the expected option benefit, the option fee and the total execution risk; The execution profit is determined according to the execution profit index.

9. The method according to claim 8, characterized in that Based on the benefit comparison result, the execution benefit index is determined according to the expected option benefit, the option fee and the total execution risk, which is specifically the following formula: ； in, is the execution profit index, is the expected option payoff, is the option fee, For the total risk of the execution, It is the preset risk impact coefficient.

10. A cost management system for cross-border e-commerce, characterized in that: include: An external risk analysis module, used to obtain a macroeconomic factor set and foreign exchange option contract information, analyze the macroeconomic factor set and foreign exchange option contract information, and determine external intervention risks; An internal risk analysis module, used to obtain a set of internal influencing factors, analyze the set of internal influencing factors and the set of macroeconomic factors, and determine the operational intervention risk; A total risk determination module, configured to determine the total execution risk of the foreign exchange option contract based on the foreign exchange option contract information, according to the external intervention risk and the operational intervention risk; A benefit analysis module, configured to analyze the macroeconomic factor set and the internal influencing factor set based on the foreign exchange option contract information and the total execution risk, and determine the execution benefit of the foreign exchange option contract; A report output module is used to output the execution report of the foreign exchange option contract based on the total execution risk and the execution profit.

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